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Leftist president wins in Brazil, keeping country at odds with Trump

By Gabe Dunsmith · Oct 26, 2026 7:20 AM ET
Man with Brazilian flag draped around shoulders
Photo by Matheus Câmara da Silva on Unsplash

In an unexpected comeback, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the left-wing incumbent, won Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday. Lula, as he is known in Brazil, is now set for an unprecedented fourth term — and a possible collision course with the Trump Administration (1).

  • Lula lost in the first round of voting early this month, claiming only 45% to 47% for his right-wing rival, Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to stage a coup in 2022 (2).
  • Lula was widely seen as the underdog in yesterday's runoff amid a right-wing surge in Brazil and Latin America as a whole. The last 7 presidential races in Latin America had all seen conservatives prevail (3, 4).
  • In the weeks between the first round and the runoff, Lula announced a flurry of measures in a bid to regain support. Those measures included expanded welfare benefits, a ban on online betting, and the bolstering of a government debt-relief program (5).
  • The election was considered significant because Brazil's next president could name up to 4 justices to the country's powerful 11-member Supreme Court (6).
  • Additionally, a win by Bolsonaro could have tilted Brazil in President Trump's favor. Bolsonaro is a vocal Trump supporter and had pledged to work with the U.S. to fight Brazilian gangs and cartels (7).
  • This past July, Trump slapped 25% tariffs on certain Brazilian goods due to alleged unfair trading practices, but he made no secret of his disdain for Lula. Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that Lula had negotiated in bad faith, adding that "[h]is economic policies are bad for Americans and bad for Brazilians" (8).
  • The Trump Administration also placed sanctions on a Brazilian Supreme Court justice who led the investigation into the elder Bolsonaro's coup attempt. In addition, State Department officials were allegedly working to boost the younger Bolsonaro in the election (9, 10).
  • Yet Lula's last-minute bid to rally working-class and left-wing voters worked. He notched 51.8% of the vote to Bolsonaro's 48.2%, a 3.6-point victory — almost double his margin over the elder Bolsonaro in 2022 (11).
  • Lula, who grew up in poverty and worked as a union leader before becoming Brazil's first working-class president in 2002, has now scored a once-unthinkable fourth term in office (1, 12).
  • It was also the first time in Brazilian history that a presidential candidate who lost in the first round prevailed in the final (12).
  • But Brazilian markets plunged in response, as investors strongly preferred Bolsonaro. iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ), a Brazil-linked ETF, fell 25% premarket this morning, with a possible 10% drop in the real, Brazil's currency (13).
  • XP Inc. (XP), a Brazilian brokerage firm, plummeted 47% premarket on Oct. 26 (13).
  • The bank Itaú Unibanco (ITUB) was down 27%, while oil giant Petrobras (PBR) and digital banking firm Nu Holdings (NU) both fell around 25% (13).
  • Bolsonaro's call to annul the results may also lead to political instability and further roil markets (1, 14).
  • Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, pledged to defend Brazilian sovereignty and democracy against American interference. Still, he will have to contend with a right-wing congress (6, 15).

Sources & Further Reading

  1. "Lula Wins a Record Fourth Term in Brazil in a Surprise Comeback." Bloomberg. October 25, 2026.
  2. "Brazil ex-President Bolsonaro wins big without his name on the ballot." Reuters. October 6, 2026.
  3. "Brazil’s Most Divided Town Shows the Nation’s Shift to the Right." New York Times. October 23, 2026.
  4. "From Bogotá to Magdeburg: What Actually Connects Seven Right-Wing Wins, Country by Country." Latin Times. September 8, 2026.
  5. "Latin America’s Most Influential Statesman Halts a Right-Wing Surge." New York Times. October 24, 2026.
  6. "Brazil’s incoming right-wing Congress takes aim at judge who jailed Bolsonaro." Reuters. October 16, 2026.
  7. "A Bolsonaro Win Would Nearly Complete Trump’s Latin America Map." New York Times. October 5, 2026.
  8. "U.S. to Impose 25% Tariff on Certain Goods From Brazil." Wall Street Journal. July 16, 2026.
  9. "US lifts sanctions against Brazilian judge in Bolsonaro case." BBC. December 13, 2025.
  10. "Inside the Trump-administration campaign to return Brazil’s Bolsonaro clan to power." Reuters. October 24, 2026.
  11. "Lula Wins Brazil’s Presidency, in Stunning Blow to Latin America’s Right." New York Times. October 25, 2026.
  12. "From metalworker to Brazil's president: Lula da Silva's rise." EuroNews. October 26, 2026.
  13. "Brazil Markets Set to Plunge on Lula’s Improbable Election Win." Bloomberg. October 26, 2026.
  14. "Bolsonaro Launches Longshot Bid to Annul Election Loss to Lula." Bloomberg. October 26, 2026.
  15. "Lula beats Bolsonaro in Brazil runoff, securing fourth presidential term." PBS. October 25, 2026.