Nebius beats Q3 revenue estimates, shares fall as data center delays weigh on 2026 outlook
Nebius Group (NBIS) beat third-quarter revenue estimates on Thursday, but shares fell as delays at partner data centers pushed its 2026 outlook to the lower end of the forecasted range.
Revenue grew 571% from a year earlier to $981M, topping analysts' expectations.
About $325M of that was one-time revenue from what Nebius calls its asset-light model, in which partners fund the capacity and run its data center design and cloud software on it. The company says in its shareholder letter that it expects this revenue to become a regular part of the business as more partners sign on.
| Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $146M | $981M | +571% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$5M | $466M | n/m |
| Net loss | -$120M | -$37.5M | -69% |
| Loss per share | -$0.50 | -$0.13 | |
| Capital spending | $956M | $7.3B | +664% |
2026 outlook:
- 2026 revenue: now the low end of the $3.0B-$3.4B range.
- 2026 capital spending: about $27B, above the earlier $20B-$25B range.
- Annualized revenue run rate: above $7B in February, about two months later than the $7B-$9B it had guided for December.
- 2027, first outlook: revenue of $12B-$13B and capital spending of $40B-$45B, with a pre-tax profit in the fourth quarter.
Nebius blamed capacity at third-party sites, that is now due in H1 2027, for its outlook shortcomings. In New Jersey, it expects to deliver more than half of the capacity contracted with Microsoft (MSFT) by the end of the year and the rest in the second quarter of 2027. The contracts behind the delayed capacity remain in place, the company says.
Prepayments on deals signed in the third quarter covered more than 100% of the related capital spending, up from 50%-60% in the second. Together with loans backed by contracts with investment-grade customers, they should fund 75%-85% of 2027 spending.
The stock was down 11.41% in premarket trading, after jumping 15% on Wednesday on CoreWeave's ($CRWV) results. CoreWeave was down 9.79% before the opening bell.
Nvidia (NVDA), which held about $329M of Nebius shares at the end of June, fell 7.9% after reports that its board plans to push out CEO Jensen Huang.
Sources & Further Reading
- "Nebius handily beats Q3 revenue expectations but shares fall." CNBC. November 12, 2026.
- "Nebius Group Q3 2026 Letter to Shareholders." Nebius Group. November 12, 2026.
- "Nebius Group Q3 2026 Earnings Release." Nebius Group. November 12, 2026.
- "CoreWeave jumps 15% premarket, raises 2026 revenue forecast." Stock Analysis. November 11, 2026.
- "Nvidia shares fall 8% after hours as its board is reportedly preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang." Stock Analysis. November 11, 2026.
This article was drafted with the help of AI. Reid Robertson fact-checked, edited and published the article and is responsible for its accuracy and quality. How we use AI
