Hello, and welcome everybody to the ADNOC Drilling Q4 2025 earnings call. My name is Becky, and I will be the operator today. All lines will be muted throughout the presentation portion of the call, with a chance for Q&A at the end. If you wish to ask a question at this time, please press Star followed by one on your telephone keypads. I will now hand over to your host, Max Cominelli, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin. Please go ahead.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the ADNOC Drilling's full year and fourth quarter 2025 earnings webcast and conference call. My name is Max Cominelli, and I'm the Vice President of Investor Relations at ADNOC Drilling. Before handing the floor over to our speakers, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer on the second slide. I encourage you to read it carefully. The text contains important information. We advise caution on the interpretation and limits of historical data and forward-looking statements. I would like to remind you that this presentation and the recording of this call will be available on our website shortly after the end of the call.
Today's presentation will be led by our Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Abdulla Al Messabi, and our Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Youssef Salem, along with members of our senior leadership team. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session, where we will be happy to answer your questions. I will now hand over the call to our CEO. Mr. Abdullah, please go ahead.
Thank you, Max. Good day, everyone, and very warm welcome from my side as well. Very proud to be with you today. And before I start my highlights, I have some great news for you today. The first one would be that our three business leaders for the segment, they will speak about their business performance, so you can hear from them directly. The second good news I have is 2025 was not only a great year for ADNOC Drilling, it is really a record-breaking year in all fronts. And to start with, I cannot thank enough our people for their discipline, innovation, and commitment to deliver 2025 excellent performance. For example, the well delivery time 20% improved versus 2024.
Non-productive time reduced significantly versus 2024, allowing us to achieve the highest speed record in MENA region by drilling one mile per day. This great operational performance delivered very, very, very strong financial results. Revenue, $4.9 billion, 22% year-on-year growth. EBITDA, $2.2 billion, 9% year-on-year growth. Net profit, $1.45 billion, 11% year-on-year growth. Very proudly, the company delivered the highest ever free cash flow, $1.5 billion. This higher free cash flow underpin two important subjects for our shareholders, growth and dividends. In terms of growth, 2025 was a defining year. Based on the great performance in the unconventional, we managed to deliver the $600 million revenue that we have shared with you during 2025. We expanded beyond Abu Dhabi for the first time.
We have concluded the acquisition of the 70% stake on the JV with SLB, giving us a land rig platform in Oman and Kuwait. In addition, we have signed the agreement to acquire 80% of MB Petroleum Services. In terms of dividends, the board recommends the $1 billion in total dividends for 2025, 27% year-on-year increase, which is fully aligned with our enhanced dividend policy. For quarter four, $250 million is expected to be paid on the second half of April. With that, let me hand over to our CFO, Youssef Salem, to walk you through the financials.
Thank you, Mr. Abdullah, and a good day to all. 2025 marked another year of strong financial delivery, supported by higher activity across the business and continued execution discipline. For the full year, revenue increased 22% year-on-year to $4.9 billion, above the top end of our guidance, driven by higher activity across conventional drilling, oil field services, and unconventional programs, which delivered $692 million in revenue for 2025. As you may recall, we previously guided around $600 million, so this result came in above our earlier indication. EBITDA for the full year increased 9% to $2.2 billion, supported by the higher revenue. Net profit increased 11% year-on-year to $1.45 billion, supported by the strong operating performance.
From a cash perspective, the business delivered a step change in free cash flow generation. For the full year, free cash flow pre-M&A reached a record of around $1.5 billion, driven by higher cash from operations and continued discipline on working capital. Let me highlight an important note before discussing the quarterly performance. Throughout this presentation, Q4 growth rates, not absolute numbers, have been adjusted in the charts for comparison purposes. I will explain the specifics of these adjustments, which are also detailed in the footnotes. Simply put, while the financial results show actual figures, the reported growth rates have been normalized to exclude some non-recurring items from revenue, EBITDA, and net income. Starting from revenue.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue reached $1.28 billion, up 7% year-on-year, driven by the expansion of the unconventional operations and the integration of offshore rigs in the second half of the year. The unconventional business contributed $190 million to revenue in the quarter, an increase of 62% year-on-year and 20% sequentially, spread between $149 million in OFS and $41 million in the onshore sector. As disclosed last year, the fourth quarter 2024 benefited from approximately $80 million of favorable OFS phasing and onshore cost reimbursement. Excluding these effects, underlying Q4 revenue growth would have been around 15% year-on-year.
EBITDA was $560 million for the quarter, up 3% after adjusting Q4 2024 EBITDA by approximately $50 million related to cost reimbursements in onshore and OFS phasing. It is also important to highlight that Q4 2025 EBITDA was impacted by higher maintenance expenses and the early stages of transitioning certain onshore rigs, as anticipated in our third quarter 2025 discussion. These rigs are expected to be repurposed or otherwise disposed of in alignment with business objectives. I will discuss impacts later when bridging Q4 to the expected Q1 2026. For the quarter, net profit stood at around $389 million, benefiting from lower finance costs following the October refinancing and by the full year impact of revised useful life and residual value estimates on certain assets. On an adjusted basis, net income would have increased by 8% year-on-year.
Finally, the balance sheet remains very strong. Net debt ended the year at $2.1 billion, equivalent to 0.9 x EBITDA, below our leverage target and providing significant flexibility to support growth, strategic investments, and shareholder returns. I will now hand over to Sultan to talk you through onshore operations.
Thank you, Youssef, and good afternoon, everyone. My name is Sultan Al Mansoori, and I lead the onshore segment. It's a pleasure to be here with you today. In 2025, onshore revenue grew 8% to over $2 billion, driven by a full contribution of rigs that commenced operation over the course of the last year, as well as $158 million contributions from unconventional activity related to onshore drilling. To date, we have drilled 83 wells and fracked 56 of them as we progress on the project delivery. EBITDA increased 7% year-on-year to $994 million, with margins stable at 49%, showing strong cost management and efficiency operation. Turning to the fourth quarter, revenue declined 6% year-on-year. As mentioned earlier, Q4 of 2024 benefited from certain cost reimbursement of approximately $30 million.
Excluding this, onshore revenue for Q4 2025 will have changed by -1% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2025 also reflected the initial impact of the planned repurposing and transition of selected onshore rigs, following our review of rig age and deployment strategy. This impact amounted to approximately $13 million less revenue and $8 million less EBITDA in Q4. Importantly, this reflects only one month of impact, with the full quarterly effect beginning in Q1 2026. Youssef will elaborate on this later.
Overall, the onshore fleet ended the year at 121 rigs, including 92 rigs in Abu Dhabi and 29 rigs in GCC region outside UAE. Following the two transactions announced, traditionally, we delivered 666 wells during the year, achieving 98% of rig availability and continue to support ADNOC development plan safely and efficiently. With that, I will hand over to Adel to cover offshore operations.
Thank you, Sultan, and good afternoon, everyone. I am Adel Al Marzooqi, and I am the SVP responsible for our offshore operations. The offshore segment delivered another strong performance in 2025, supported by continued fleet optimization and contributions from new assets. For the full year, offshore revenue increased 6% year-on-year to $1.4 billion, driven primarily by the conversion of two rigs from onshore to offshore island, as well as the contribution from two jack-up rigs that commenced operation during the year. EBITDA increased 6% to $953 million, with margin expanding to 68%, reflecting high utilization and sustained cost discipline. Turning to fourth quarter, offshore revenue grew 15% year-on-year, supported by the full contribution of the converted rigs and new jack-up rigs.
Sequentially, performance remained stable versus the third quarter, with EBITDA benefiting from improved cost efficiency, partially offset by higher maintenance activity. At year-end 2025, the offshore fleet stood at 48 rigs, including 36 jack-ups and 12 island rigs. During the year, we drilled 170 wells, with rig availability of 96%. We continue to see strong demand across offshore, supported by long-term visibility and robust development pipeline. I will now hand over to Emri to cover oilfield services.
Thank you, Adel, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm Emri, and I lead our oilfield services operations. I'm truly proud to speak to you today about the fastest-growing segment in ADNOC Drilling in 2025, a year of exceptional growth, record activity, and value creation. For the year, OFS revenue increased 80% year-on-year to $1.46 billion, driven by higher activity, expanded integrated drilling, and discrete services coverage, as well as a strong $534 million contribution from our unconventional operations. EBITDA increased 31% year-on-year to $251 million, reflecting scale, benefits, stronger operating leverage, efficiencies, and contribution from our joint ventures, Enersol and Turnwell.
In the fourth quarter, OFS revenue grew 24% year-on-year, supported by continued strength in our conventional activity and $149 million of revenue from our unconventional business, where we have drilled 83 wells and fracked 56 since our unconventional activity inception. As noted earlier, Q4 2024 benefited from a favorable phasing tailwind of around $50 million. When normalized, our underlying OFS growth in revenue would have been 48%, demonstrating the strong momentum across our services segment. EBITDA for the quarter was at $81 million, broadly flat on a yearly basis, benefiting from higher activity and efficiency gains, partially offset by maintenance and cost normalization. Similar to the revenue, with adjusted Q4 2024, EBITDA would have grown by 56% year-on-year.
Operationally, IDS rigs increased to 60, up from 57 in Q4 2024, and we provided at least one discrete service to 58 additional rigs, bringing total OFS coverage to 118 rigs from the ADNOC Drilling-owned rigs. We also delivered a 22% improvement in integrated drilling service efficiency versus the 2024 benchmark, a major achievement reflecting improved execution, technology adoption, and stronger integration. OFS remains central to ADNOC Drilling's growth strategy, offering scalable capital-efficient returns and further strengthening our integrated value proposition to our customers. With that, I'll hand it back to Youssef.
Thank you, Emri. In line with our progressive dividend policy, the board of directors has recommended a fourth quarter 2025 dividend of $250 million, or around 5.7 cents per share, subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming annual general meeting. The dividend is expected to be paid in the second half of April 2026. This brings total dividends for the full year 2025 to $1 billion, representing a 27% year-over-year increase, and reflects the strength of our cash generation and the resilience of our balance sheet. As outlined in our progressive dividend policy, we have also established a 2026 dividend floor of $1.05 billion, representing a minimum 5% year-over-year increase, with dividends to be paid quarterly.
Importantly, the board retains discretion to approve additional dividends above the floor after considering free cash flow accretive growth opportunities. Let's now turn to our guidance. Next slide, please. Based on the strong full-year performance in 2025 and the visibility we have today, ADNOC Drilling enters 2026 with confidence. For the full year, we expect revenue of around $5 billion. The growth will be supported by sustained activity across conventional drilling, particularly in offshore, while onshore will benefit from regional activity, offset by the full year impact of rig repurposing. Conventional oilfield services is expected to grow, while the unconventional program is expected to have a lower phasing versus 2025. The unconventional business has shown strong results in 2025, generating around $0.7 billion in revenue.
Of the total $1.7 billion phase one contract value, $0.84 billion has been accumulated by the end of 2025. The remaining amount of around $0.86 billion is expected to be spread between 2026 and 2027. We anticipate EBITDA to be within the range of $2.2 billion-$2.3 billion, with an expected EBITDA margin between 44%-45%. As previously outlined, these figures are indicative of an ongoing shift in the business mix towards oilfield services and unconventional, while maintaining robust profitability in conventional operations and, above all, delivering substantial returns on investment and equity. Net profit is expected to be in the range of $1.45 billion-$1.5 billion, with free cash flow excluding M&A of $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion....
CapEx, excluding M&A, is expected to be between $0.6 billion and $0.8 billion, and we continue to target a leverage ratio below 2x EBITDA. As previously mentioned, in Q4 2025, a repurposing of onshore rigs affected revenue by about $13 million and EBITDA by $8 million over one month. On a full quarter basis for Q1 2026, this equates to roughly $40 million in revenue and $25 million-$26 million in EBITDA, as most manpower costs remain for some time. As a result, comparing Q1 2026 to Q4 2025, you can anticipate $27 million less in revenue from repurposed land rigs and an $18 million decrease in EBITDA. In Q1 2026, we expect around $1.23 billion revenue, $0.53 billion EBITDA, and up to $0.35 billion net income.
The approximately $40 million net lower revenue sequentially compared to Q4 is a result of repurposing land rigs, around $30 million as I mentioned, two fewer days, circa $20 million. Unconventional phasing, net of otherwise as growth, around $20 million. Net of additional revenue from SLDC, circa $30 million tops. This impact follows through to EBITDA and net income, with net income also having the additional impact of around $12 million positive D&A impact in Q4 from reassessment of useful life being non-recurring, hence non-repeatable in Q. We will provide more detailed guidance on quarterly phasing as we progress. For now, Q1 and Q2 financials are expected to be broadly similar, while Q3 and Q4 are likely to carry greater weight following the completion of their MBPS transaction, the addition of further IDS, and the commencement of operations from new island rigs.
Looking beyond 2026, our medium-term outlook remains strong, underpinned by sustained development in both unconventional and conventional drilling, including six new island rigs scheduled for delivery between 2026 and 2028. This is supported by continued expansion of oilfield services and attractive regional growth opportunities. We expect to have 70 IDS rigs in operation by year-end 2026. From a financial standpoint, we remain focused on preserving a healthy 50% EBITDA margin in the domestic conventional business, with drilling margins about 50% and OFS margins in the 23%-26% range over the medium term. We also plan to maintain maintenance CapEx of around $250 million per year. As additional growth drivers materialize, we will update our 2027 and medium-term growth guidance accordingly. Next slide, please.
To conclude, 2025 was a record year for ADNOC Drilling, delivered through operational excellence, disciplined execution, and a clear strategic direction. Our 2026 outlook builds on this strong momentum, supported by sustained activity across the link, continued expansion in oilfield services, and ongoing progress in the unconventional programs. The board's recommendation of the fourth quarter dividend under our progressive policy reflects both the strength of our cash generation and our confidence in future cash flows.
Looking ahead, regional expansion is unlocking additional growth with new platforms in Oman and Kuwait and further opportunities through MB Petroleum Services. At the same time, we remain focused on advancing our ESG agenda and pursuing ambitious goals. Taken together, ADNOC Drilling is gearing up for future growth while remaining resilient, positioned to deliver predictable cash generation and long-term value creation. Thank you for your time. We will now open the floor for your questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypads now. If you feel your question has been answered or for any reason you would like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Ricardo Rezende from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hello, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. It was great to hear from the, the business heads as well. Two questions, if I may. The first one, when you look at the guidance for 2026, do you already have any expansion of OFS outside of the UAE, or is that an upside to the current numbers? And then the second one, just a follow-up on the balance from unconventional. How much should we think about in 2026, and what's the balance for 2027? Thank you.
Thanks a lot, Ricardo. So on the first point, no, it does not capture any of OFS outside the UAE, so that's completely an upside potential. On the second, and also above that, it doesn't even fully reflect the potential inside the UAE. So the way we've basically devised the guidance is you would see the OFS is flat year-on-year, $1.5-$1.5. Now, that came to your other question on the unconventional. Originally, the unconventional was meant to be $600 in 2026 and $600 in 2025. What ended up happening is we ended up bringing wells earlier because of the outperformance and delivering wells faster.
So 2025 ended up being close to $700, and that was one of the reasons that the OFS outperformed the 2025, on top of the OFS conventional outperformance as well. When you look at, and what that effectively meant is in 2026. The equivalent number has become $500 million, because there's $100 million of work that has been brought forward from 2026 to 2025. But effectively, the OFS conventional business will grow by at least $200 million year-on-year, and hence effectively will offset that unconventional phasing, and hence effectively you still have $1.5 billion year-on-year.
Now, to the extent that the conventional OFS grows by more than $200 million, then that can be another upside in 2026 domestic conventional OFS on top of, because the $200 million growth, that's already contracted OFS growth from 2025, 2026. So there's additional uncontracted OFS growth, then that would be an upside. And then you also have the OFS outside the UAE as another point.
So I think if there is an upside surprise in 2026, I think you are thinking about the right way, that probably OFS would be the most likely out of the three segments to be able to positively surprise in 2026. Now, on your last question, if you then do the math on what's left in 2027. So by end of 2026, we would have concluded from the unconventional $150 million in 2024, $700 million in 2025, $500 million in 2026, so that's $1.35 billion. So that would leave us with $350 million for 2027. For obviously phase one. Obviously, phase two in reality, will end up being significantly higher because you will have the overlap between phases one and two.
Thanks, Joseph. That was very clear.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Anna Kishmariya from UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Good day. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have a couple of questions. Probably first around the rigs repurposing, and when we look at the costs that you provide for the first quarter, should we expect a similar decrease on EBITDA and revenue levels, or are there some additional costs in the first quarter that will not be visible in further quarters? And my second question will be around the rented rigs. The number continue to decrease. What is your plan for the remaining six? And maybe if I can squeeze one more in, is around the Unconventional phase two timeline. Do you have any updates on that? Thank you.
Definitely. So I think on the first point, repurposing, so Q1 would be the rock bottom from that perspective, because that's the quarter where we have the full impact of the revenues not being there, but we fortunately also have the costs being there. Now, obviously, after that, you will have gradual recovery because, one, either that these rigs would kind of resume work in some capacity, and/or some of these costs will be relocated by transferring that manpower, or at least part of it, to the additional rigs we have coming throughout the year. For example, we have three island rigs coming in Q2, Q3, Q4. So these will be able to absorb some of the costs via that transfer. So yes, you will start to see gradual recovery throughout the course of the year on that side.
In terms of the rented, yes, this number is declining by design, because the exact reason why we have them as rented in the first place is because there's no long-term requirement for these rigs. So had there been a long-term stable requirement for these rigs, we would have purchased them, and that's why, by design, that number is kind of volatile to relatively declining. Because some of these rigs were kind of shorter term reasons, and that's why, again, they continue to be kind of outside the core focus and the financials for us. So yes, we do expect that rig count to continue to decline. Obviously, it may spike and decline again if there's specific short periods where there's a need for a peak for load for any reason.
But generally, yes, it should continue to be a declining trend, which would not have any impact on our numbers because the kind of administrative charge on them is de minimis. So really, we show it for completeness purposes, but it does not really impact us. On the third point, on the UC, again, we continue to progress extremely well. So now we've effectively drilled close to 90 wells and completed close to 60 wells out of phase one. The ADNOC team is working on the kind of the FIDs in terms of their submissions, kind of as we speak, in terms of their et cetera. And the negotiations with the concession partners are going on as we speak. So the FIDs are well on track this year.
We should have some of them come in the first half of the year, and then the rest would follow in the second half of the year.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rene Selouan from Jadwa Investment. The line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for the presentation, and congratulations on the record set of results. My question relates to CapEx and free cash flow and dividends. So, basically, in your presentation, you mentioned $604 million CapEx. However, in the financials, it's $805 million. So I just want to know what the difference is. And M&A CapEx is about $200 million-$300 million. So free cash flow, if we include M&A, is probably $1.2 billion. The dividend was $1 billion. So, should we expect this to continue, like, a difference between your free cash flow and dividends? That's number one.
Number two, your guidance is for lower free cash flow in 2026. How come? If you end up paying higher than the minimum 5% growth in dividend, does the dividend get reset? Or, like, let's say you pay $1.2. Should we expect 5% on top of the $1.2 the year after?
Thank you so much. As I think on the first point, the difference between the $600 million and the $800 million CapEx for 2025, is the $600 million is the accrual CapEx, and $800 million is the cash CapEx. Now we appreciate that this may cause confusion. So what you will see us do going forward is starting 2026, we are moving towards guiding on cash CapEx, which is $800 million, $600 million-$800 million. So we no longer have previously used to guide on the accrual, because effectively that's what appears from a purely accounting perspective. But we recognize that really the way you're using the guidance is to calculate the free cash flow. So the cash CapEx is what's more relevant for you, and that's why going forward, we're shifting the guidance to be based on a cash CapEx.
So hopefully, going forward, you'll have more clarity on that. But that's the difference in 2025. Now, when it comes to the difference between the $1 billion and the $1.2 billion. No, there is no fundamental reason why there should be any difference between the free cash flow and the dividend. What happened in 2025 is that because the dividend increase was already 27% year-on-year from $788 million in 2024 to $1 billion in 2025, the board felt that $1 billion was the appropriate level for this year, considering this growth. However, as we look forward from here, that does not mean in any way that we need to maintain a certain difference between free cash flow and dividend.
So as we approach the second half of this year, the board will be looking at the difference between the free cash flow and the dividend for 2026, and to the extent they're comfortable with a number above 1.05, then there can be an additional dividend on top. That links to the other question, which that dividend can either come in the form of a discretionary dividend. In that case, it would, the 5% will not apply to it, or it can come in the form of a base reset. In that case, the 5% will apply to it.
What will happen is the board will evaluate the outlook for 2027, and to the extent that the free cash flow for 2027 kind of is continuing to increase, et cetera, then kind of they can potentially look at resetting the base. To the extent, for example, we have a further acceleration of growth in 2027, and we have another program of rigs coming in, in place, then effectively that may then be dealt with as a discretionary, in order kind of not to burden 2027. So all of that will be looked at in the second half of the year, taking into account the free cash flow of 2026 and the outlook for 2027. But definitely we don't need to maintain any specific gap above the between the dividend and the free cash flow.
Now, in terms of why we're guiding towards the lower free cash flow in 2026. In 2025, we've had record collections, so we've had more than a $5 billion collection from the client on a $4.9 billion revenue. So it was more than a 100% collection, and that brought our working capital to an all-time low of 7%, compared to a normalized and guidance level of 12%. And hence, we're taking into account that when we guide for free cash flow to make sure that to the extent there's any kind of working capital normalization, that that happens, that we are taking that into account when we guide conservatively on what their free cash flow is. And that's the reason behind the between the difference between the two.
But again, to the extent that there's also working capital consumption, we still have, kind of, the balance sheet at only 0.9 x net debt to EBITDA. So for example, let's say we end up generating 1.2-1.3 before M&A, and there is M&A, that does not by definition eliminate the case for a discretionary dividend. So ultimately, we need to look at all of this in totality, the free cash flow, the debt, and the dividends, and the kind of the growth and the dividend year on year. And also the board looks at that also in totality with the growth. So today, what we're guiding towards is a kind of a last year, the growth in bottom line was kind of low double digits, right?
And hence, again, with a 27% dividend growth, the board felt in total that was appropriate. Now, when you look at growth this year, growth this year is single digit. So obviously, obviously, when the board also looks at the dividend growth and the dividend yield, they take into account the growth, and they recognize that the growth this year is lower than last year, and that's something will be taken into account also when it comes to the final dividend calculation at the end of the year.
Okay, very clear. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Audrey Zhong from China Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. This is Audrey Zhong from China Securities, and thank you for taking my question. I have one question. I noticed that the SLB and the MBPS acquisitions are expected to deliver mid- to high-teens IRR, which is above the domestic onshore benchmark. At the same time, their EBIT margins appear structurally lower than the core onshore segment, roughly in the 30s to 40s, versus around 50 for onshore. Could you please help us understand how to reconcile these two dynamics in the business angle? Thank you.
Absolutely. Thank you, Audrey, and great to start having you on these calls. I'm looking forward to having you on the calls and thank you for joining us right before Chinese New Year and happy New Year in advance. So I think in terms of the reconciliation between the two, so you're absolutely right, the margins are optically lower than the onshore. But because we are buying these rigs at extremely attractive valuations, only 3.5x EBITDA, which is significantly less than the cost of constructing a new rig. So if you're constructing a new rig, what it will cost you upfront would be more than that.
So because we are benefiting from that, even though that lower EBITDA margin, proportionately, is still able to give us a higher, return that we're able to generate on these, on these rigs. So basically, a very attractive acquisition consideration, which we're able to secure because these were bilateral carve-out deals, and hence were not deals that would lend themselves naturally to a competitive auction with kind of higher valuations, is what allowed us to be able to, secure these, these, these returns. And you see that on, on all metrics. So in addition to being a higher IRR, it's also a higher free cash flow yield. So the cash, the free cash flow yield on these deals is also double-digit compared to our current free cash flow yield of 6%.
So kind of it's accretive for us on, on all fronts, and we have a pipeline of further expansion. Also, these two deals, in addition to the rigs we inherited with them, they've also won additional work. So MBPS has now won four additional rigs since we started, since we signed the acquisition, three in Kuwait and one in Oman. So we'll also have further accretion to the free cash flow and to the IRR coming from the additional rigs that we want on top of the existing rigs that we had in term.
Okay. Thank you so much. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Adeeb from CI Capital. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you for the call, and, congrats on the very strong set of results. Can you please help me understand, like, what does the $5 billion guidance takes into account? Because, like, as far as I understand, there are 29 rigs, that are going to be added into 2026 number, mainly coming from, probably an MBPS. And also, I want to understand, like, do you include any guidance from unconventional post phase one? Because back in IPO, it was communicated that the company is expected to drill 300 unconventional wells per annum by 2030.
Thank you, Mark. So I think on the $5 billion, if we break it down, so first, if you start on the onshore side, 2025 was $2 billion, 2026 was—is expected, at a minimum, as $2 billion. The bridge is first, you add the impact of the acquired rigs in the region. So this is effectively eight rigs, as part of the SLB partnership for the entire year, and then the remaining 21 rigs, for one-two quarters, depending on the time of the closing of their MBPS deals. And then you net from that two things. One is the impact of the rigs, which are getting the high single-digit number of rigs, which are getting repurposed in Abu Dhabi.
And then you also net off the kind of the reduction in the unconventional. So the onshore proportion of the unconventional reduction from 700 to 500. So out of that, 200, 20% of that reduction goes into onshore. So $40 million of that is an onshore revenue reduction. So net-net, these things effectively almost net themselves off. Why does a rig in Abu Dhabi has a higher effect? Is because in Abu Dhabi, we offer a lot of additional services on top of the rig. So the daily rate in Abu Dhabi only constitutes around 55%-60% of our revenue, with the remaining coming from other things like diesel, rig move, site preparation.
Not all of these services, we provide them in the other countries in which we operate, and hence having a rig out of operation Abu Dhabi effectively offsets maybe a couple of rigs or 1.5 rigs operating outside Abu Dhabi. It's like that's kind of why these things end up netting off each other. Then you go to the offshore segment, going from $1.4 billion to closer to $1.5 billion. That is the impact of, one, is two jackups that joined middle of last year, so they will have their first full year of operation this year. And second is you have the partial impact of the three island rigs, which are joining in Q2, Q3, Q4. Then OFS, $1.5 billion last year, $1.5 billion this year.
This is the unconventional going down by $200 million. 80% of that goes into the OFS. So that's a $160 million reduction, and then the OFS fully makes up for that reduction via the conventional OFS domestic growth. So that kind of is the overall guidance for the $5 billion. The unconventional phase two is not part of that guidance. That guidance is only for 2026. We will start guiding for 2027 onwards once we have the final FIDs on the unconventional throughout the year, so we can start guiding accurately for 2027, and then as you said, with time, the full potential will be realized at 2030.
Thank you so much. A follow-up question, if I may, on the unconventional. I know it might be a bit too early, but is there any color that you can provide on, like, is it going to be a linear growth until the 300 unconventional wells by 2030, or how does it look like?
No, it's more back-ended. Like, a working assumption we have just for the modeling is to almost do if you do a 50% almost year-on-year growth from now, starting in 2027, that's kind of how you reach broadly at 300 wells per year. Now, that is just a modeling assumption for now. Obviously, we'll have much more accuracy once the FIDs are in place, but it's just more of a modeling assumption to illustrate the more back-ended nature of the growth towards 2030. Because and the reason for that is ADNOC needs to build the production facilities to be able to absorb the additional volumes from the unconventional.
And the production facilities on average, a couple of years building period. So if ADNOC takes these FIDs effectively this year, that effectively means these facilities are in place 2028, 2029. In reality, you cannot grow linearly because then there won't be facilities to absorb the production, and that's why the growth is back-ended.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ildar Khaziev from HSBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. With respect to the regional expansion, could you please share maybe more details about the scope of opportunities there? Are we talking about, further acquisitions, or there is a pipeline of tenders you plan to participate and maybe bring new assets to those countries? And also, I have seen the news about Kuwait considering the shale development as well. Is there something ADNOC Drilling would be in a position to compete for? Thank you.
Yes, it is all of the above. So first, it is the two existing joint ventures. We have had tendering for additional rigs, and this has already been successful with MBPS over the last, effectively, six months since the deal signing or less securing four rigs on top of the 21 that they have. This is also ADNOC Drilling directly tendering with our rigs, where we have already tender submissions kind of in the process and waiting for results. And this is also the potential for additional joint ventures on top of the two that we have done. There are other additional partners in these countries where we are in various kind of stages of discussions with them....
Also to your point on other opportunities outside the conventional land drilling, there are ongoing opportunities, whether it's unconventional, like you mentioned, also on the offshore side in Kuwait. So there are a multitude of opportunities that we're pursuing by way of both organically and inorganically across these markets, and obviously, we'll be updating you on kind of any wins as they happen.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Faisal Al- Azmeh from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi, and thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. A number of my questions have been answered, but maybe just, just one question regarding kind of your medium-term, forecast or outlook for, OFS margins. It used to be kind of closer to 20%, and now we see that it's actually moved up. Maybe if you can share some color on, on what drives that. That's my first question. My second question kind of also relates back to the dividend question. What, when, when do you feel that there is optionality on actually paying more than what the market is actually anticipating? Would that be for this year? Would that be for next year?
Maybe if you can give us some color on at what point or what are the key kind of metrics that may allow you to surprise the markets. Thank you.
Definitely, I think on the first point, I think previously our medium-term guidance for the OFS margin was 22%-26%, we then upgraded this to 23%-26%. Previously, the margins used to be on the lower because it was a ramp up phase. Today, the OFS has reached a scale. Today, we are the single largest OFS player in Abu Dhabi, which is fully competitive on the OFS side. Our market share only on the integrated drilling services side is close to 35%-40%. On top of that, we also have the discrete services. Last year, we almost had $1 billion plus of conventional oil field services on top of the unconventional.
So now the business is really in scale to be able to operate within that band of the 23-26, and we see opportunities to continue to kind of creep upwards within that range, also aided by the kind of the contributions from Enersol and also continued scaling. Again, we talked about how the conventional business this year will offset the kind of the decline in unconventional this year, which basically means you have at least a 20% growth in the OFS business this year. So the OFS continues to really deliver in a massive way on the conventional side as well, and that's allowing us to, allowing us to continue to do that.
You also see a lot of news going throughout this year on the OFS, not only from a financial perspective, but also on further capability building, scope, expansion, et cetera. So now that we've kind of really reached scale and maturity on the drilling services that we have, we're really taking significant steps towards other service lines and scope expansion. And there'll be a lot of updates on that throughout the year. So really, over time, they're just ADNOC Drilling itself as a driller, then an Integrated Drilling Services. It's now by the end of this year, you see a much, much more integrated services company across the scope and it's something...
That's why we're very comfortable that even if you see growth slightly reducing in 2026, when you think about more of a CAGR towards 2030, we're still very confident that that growth CAGR will still, trend, will be still significantly higher than the-- will not be the low single digits you're seeing this year, will be higher than that, because effectively, will be more in the highest single digit on a CAGR perspective until 2030, because of the unconventional and also because of this, scope expansion, capability building we are doing, which, together with the dividend yield, will bring us back to the kind of the double-digit, total return that we're, we're looking at. I think on the second point, in terms of, in terms of dividend, yes, we definitely have optionality, this year.
What the board will look at at the end of the year is they look at the incremental available cash and debt capacity in 2026, and then they also look at the outlook for 2027, and then based on that, triangulate what's needed. Now, I think for us, really the key point is, we will always have some form of good news, right? That's kind of what we are committed to deliver. So obviously, again, back maybe to the point from Remy. Last year, I think the board felt that in aggregate, we've delivered what kind of because of the growth delivery, because of the other contract wins, the 27% year-on-year increase on dividend was kind of sufficient from that kind of totality perspective, to kind of defer further optionality down the line.
So the board, by the end of the year, will look at what is happening on the other avenues in terms of the growth in 2026, the growth in 2027, and then we'll make sure that there's appropriate dividend level to kind of complete that story from a total return perspective. So if it needs to be done in 2026 to complete the story, it will be done. If there's other growth avenues that have come in and that kind of can continue our optionality between 2026 and 2027, then that will be the case. But there will definitely be positive updates in the second half of the year, whether they come from the dividends and/or from the growth plans and the contract wins.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rene Selouan from Jadwa Investment. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. I jumped back in the queue, thanks. I just wanted to make sure, in terms of your committed M&A, for how much remains, in terms of CapEx? And, also, I wanted to ask you if you could repeat the first quarter guidance. I didn't catch it.
Definitely. So I think on the-
If you have time, sorry.
Of course. Of course, no, of course. So on the first point, the committed M&A, the full commit M&A is $160 million, which is the amount for MBPS for the 80% stake. So that's the only outstanding committed consideration that we effectively have to pay as per the signed M&A today. Now, if you look at the guidance for Q1, we're looking at $1.23 billion revenue, $0.53 billion EBITDA and $0.35 billion net income. And that obviously will be the lowest quarter throughout the year as we ramp up throughout the year.
Okay, so, $350 million net income, that's your guidance?
Correct. Correct. Obviously, if you can see that compared to a full year of up to $1.5 billion. So obviously you see that that is not the, the kind of the run rate level, and that is because two days less in Q1, pre-MBPS closing, which will happen around middle of the year, and pre the transfer of the costs from the repurposed rigs into the new rigs, and pre the ramp up of the IDS to 70 IDS by the end of the year. So because it's pre these four factors, it's at $350 million. Obviously, our run rate throughout the year to get us to the one to the up to $1.5 billion will be higher.
Yeah. Yeah. Sure. Sure. Okay. And how much CapEx for Enersol remains? Do you expect it to come in 2026, all of it, or over two years?
So we expect it to be signed in 2026. Now, the cash consideration itself either will come towards the very back end of 2026 or may kind of slip to 2027.
Okay, and how much remains? Could you remind me on that one?
350. $350 million.
Okay, thanks. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. And we have another question from Anna Kishmariya from UBS. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Apologies, just a quick follow-up. I think you mentioned that MBPS have four additional rigs. Can you comment on that? Is it like the new contract? Do they plan to increase it for over 21? Any color on that, if possible?
Correct. These, these are new wins. So three in Kuwait and 1 in Oman, that they've won them in competitive tenders, since we've signed the deal. So they will bring these additional, kind of, rigs on board by the kind of end of 2026, beginning of 2027. So the financial impact of these will appear in our 2027 financials.
That's very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. Just as a final reminder, if you did want to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypads now. That is star followed by one. We have a question from Jamie Franklin from Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thank you for taking my questions. It's just, just one left from me, please. So in your 2026 guidance, you maintained your leverage target of up to 2x, but I don't see that reiterated within the medium-term guidance, so I just wanted to check that that still holds, please. Thanks.
Thank you, Jamie, and welcome on board our coverage. Thank you for being here. Yes, that up to 2x is maintained. That continues to be the case, and obviously, that gives us 1.1x optionality from the current level for additional dividends and growth over time.
Perfect. Thank you.
Thank you. We currently have no further questions. This concludes our Q&A session, so I'll hand back over to the management team for any final comments.
Thank you so much. Thank you so much for taking the time. Always a pleasure to have you, and obviously, we're available here as well for any follow-ups. After this, we're always at your disposal anytime. So thanks again, and see you all soon.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.