Good afternoon. I'm Andrew Thomis, Chief Executive of Cohort PLC. I'm joined by Simon Walther, Cohort's Finance Director, and we're here to talk about a contract win that we've announced this morning, which is providing our Ancilia trainable decoy launcher system to the Royal Navy. I'm going to start by giving you the highlights and explaining what it is that we're going to be doing. Simon will then talk through the impact on our financial performance, and I'll summarize at the end. So if we can move on to the first slide, here's the big picture. The initial value of the contract is over GBP 135 million, and that's going to have a significant impact on the group's order book, which is going to exceed GBP 500 million for the first time, and that's a few records, of course.
Now, the contract value is linked to an inflation index, so it'll grow over time, and there are also a number of options for additional systems that the Ministry of Defence could choose to exercise. The base contract, though, is for development and production of multiple systems, and production is going to continue over the next decade, and that will provide a steady stream of revenue and cash. Now, one of the things that pleases us most about it is that it develops and deepens our long-term relationship as a partner of the Royal Navy. Aside from Ancilia, SEA supplies submarine communications and torpedo launch systems to the Royal Navy. Chess provides electro-optic trackers. Marlborough Communications provides electronic warfare equipment, and EID provides surface ship communications. And it's a relationship that's got great value in itself and which also carries considerable weight with export customers.
Interestingly, Ancilia is an example of cooperation within the Cohort group. Chess Dynamics has done the design and prototyping work on a stabilized trainable base, and SEA developed the launchers and integrated the whole system. I'm often asked about whether our businesses could add value by working together, and I think this is a clear example and a demonstration that they can and they do do that. Very importantly for us, this win establishes Ancilia as the world-leading solution to what is a growing threat, and I'll say a bit more about that threat in a moment. We were awarded the contract in the face of stiff international competition from leading defense businesses, and the win is a confirmation of the capability of Ancilia to meet the demanding requirements of the world-class Royal Navy and to do so cost-effectively.
And it's also a measure of the Royal Navy's confidence in our ability to deliver. Our position in that world market is important. Our conservative estimate of the addressable export market for Ancilia is that it exceeds GBP 250 million, and we're optimistic of winning a good portion of that, although none of that is assumed in the numbers that Simon's going to share with you shortly. Moving on to the next slide. Why is it then that the Navy's actually need a product like Ancilia? Well, the threat to surface vessels from anti-ship missiles is growing. It was first demonstrated back in 1982 with the sinking of HMS Sheffield by an Exocet launched by the Argentine Air Force, and since then the technology has moved on dramatically.
Missiles that are in service with potential adversaries can travel at extraordinary speed, not miles per hour or even miles per minute, but miles per second. Missiles can attack with a low sea-skimming trajectory, which is hard to see on radar, but also now with a ballistic trajectory that drops vertically down towards the target. In an effort to overwhelm defenses, adversaries can launch waves of multiple missiles, including coordinated simultaneous attacks from multiple directions. The success that Ukraine has experienced against the Russian Navy has once again demonstrated the potency of the anti-missile or, sorry, anti-ship missile threat. It's not just large surface combatants and aircraft carriers that are at risk from this kind of attack. Developments in other technologies, choose, for example, SEA's Krait Defence System sonar, mean that even corvettes and patrol boats, smaller naval vessels, can deliver a powerful defensive or offensive capability.
So they, too, will be targeted by advanced technology missiles. That means that significant numbers of defense systems will be needed by many navies of a size and weight that can be accommodated on relatively small vessels. One problem faced in defending against the kind of attacks that I've described is that the high speed of the weapon gives very little time from detection to impact. Vessels have no time to maneuver to optimize the position of fixed decoy launchers. So we need launchers that can rapidly train in the right direction and fire patterns of decoys and then do it again against a threat from a different direction. And if we could have the next slide, that is exactly what Ancilia can do. It's been designed by SEA and Chess combining world-class capabilities, decoy launchers, and enlarged-scale trainable stabilized platforms for use in a naval environment.
It's a step change in design compared to the current generation of fixed decoy launcher solutions. Its trainable nature removes the need to maneuver the vessel in response to a threat. Its small size enables it to be fitted to a wide range of maritime platforms, right down to corvettes and patrol vessels. It can move, elevate, and fire at speed to create a protective shield in the short time window that modern missile technology allows. Ancilia supports a multitude of different countermeasures, so it can counter a wide range of threats quickly and effectively. Its open architecture allows a wide range of effectors to be pre-programmed and launched, and that includes all NATO-standard decoys. And finally, Ancilia has been designed to fit into the physical footprint of existing fixed launchers.
It also has a low mass compared to other systems on the market, making it a simple and cost-effective upgrade for many users. I'd like now to show you when we move on to the next slide a short video showing a demonstration of the Ancilia prototype. You can see from this video the prototype both moving in azimuth and training in elevation as well, and you can see the speed at which it does that. That in practice will be achieved with an exceptionally heavy load of large countermeasures. You can see that there are some real technical challenges in developing a system which will not only do this but also be stabilized on a moving seaborne platform and then be able to fire multiple sets of decoys off to create several successive patterns.
Okay, so if we can pause the video there and move on to the next slide. Because finally, before Simon talks about the financial impact of the order, I wanted to say a word about the international market. We launched Ancilia at the DSEI exhibition in London last year, and since then we've seen interest from a number of prospective customers. We've seen very significant investments in anti-ship missile technology from China and Russia, and we've also seen recently the Yemeni Houthis armed with Iranian technology causing significant hazards both civil and naval ships operating in or near the Red Sea. Navies worldwide are responding to that threat, and Ancilia provides an essential element of that response.
And so unsurprisingly, given that background, we've seen particularly intense interest in the Asia and Pacific region, most likely a result of the huge effort China is putting into the creation of a well-armed, large blue-water navy. SEA is building partnerships with local and international suppliers to access these markets and to provide a complete solution from detection to countermeasure launch. It's important for our export success to have the support of domestic customers, and that's doubly true when the domestic customer is one of the world's leading navies as, of course, it is in our case. And that's why today's announcement is so important and why that importance goes well beyond the significant direct benefit that it provides to us and to our Royal Navy customers. As I've said, the conservative estimate of the addressable market is over GBP 250 million.
Today's announcement has a big positive impact on our ability to access and win those opportunities. So with that, I'll hand over to Simon. We'll talk about the direct financial impact of the win. Simon, over to you. Can we have the next slide?
Thank you, Andy. Good afternoon to you all. If you could move to the next slide, please. As a result of this significant order and recent wins in Canada for the torpedo launch system, and Australia for SCEO positions, we were able today to enhance our forecasts for 2024-2025 and 2025-2026. We expect revenue uplifts against external forecasts of GBP 5 million and GBP 15 million in each of those years, respectively. This is expected to provide a good uplift to 2024-2025 adjusted trading profit and earnings per share, and a material uplift to the 2025-2026 in both respects. As we said at the presentation of our interim statement last December, we are working on moving the group net margins up, and we now expect this to be around about 12% in 2025-2026.
We are now guiding net funds at the end of April 2025 and 2026 to be around GBP 15 million and GBP 20 million, respectively. As Andy has already said, the contract win announced today, along with those recent wins, extend out into the middle of the 2030s, and we anticipate an annual revenue stream of around GBP 15 million. We continue to work on improving the group's net margin, and this win will help us towards that mid-teen net margin in the next three to five years. We can move to the next slide, please. As you can see from this slide, MEWP adds GBP 135 million with options and price variations to come, and is over half the order book for delivery from 2026-2027 onwards. As already mentioned, group order book currently sits at over GBP 500 million, with visibility now out to 2034.
We already have over GBP 160 million on contract for delivery in the coming financial year, 2024-2025. As we said at the half-year, sensors and effectors continue to dominate the group order book, and with MP now added, it's over 75% of the group order book. Thank you.
Thank you, Simon. If we can move to the next slide, I'd like to summarize before we move on to questions. This is a financially material order for SEA and the group that has a strong positive impact on our outlook, as Simon's explained. It brings the group order book to over GBP 500 million, a new record. It will generate revenue for a decade, perhaps to 2034. It's a clear demonstration of Ancilia's capability that will carry weight in international markets, and we will be looking to win a good portion of that GBP 250 million addressable export potential. In short, it is the next major step towards our long-term vision to be a major independent U.K. defense technology group. I'd like to invite questions now. Thank you very much for your attention, and let me hand back to Rachel.
Thank you very much. The first question comes from Mike Jeremy from Equity Development. Mike asks, says, "Congratulations on such a high-profile contract. You noted that the wider market potential could be GBP 250 million. Could you comment on this and any other areas where the technology used in Ancilia might be applied? Thank you.
Yeah, of course. Thanks for the question, Mike. Well, as I indicated in the presentation, we certainly see potentially strong demand coming from the Southeast Asian region, but also there are some significant opportunities in Europe as well. We are a business that exports worldwide to those markets where we can export, of course, and we will certainly be, you know, looking around the globe for these opportunities. But I think, you know, recent events on the world stage have increased the importance, as I've tried to explain, of defense against anti-ship missiles, and so we see strong demand likely to arrive globally. And as far as the technology of Ancilia is concerned, well, it's interesting how that comes from some of the other products that we've developed.
So the launch technology, for example, which requires electronics and software to be able to pre-program the countermeasures to make sure they do the right thing, comes very much from SEA, which has got a long heritage of doing this not only for countermeasures but also for torpedo launchers. Our torpedo launchers, which are capable of launching any torpedo, have sold very strongly worldwide, and we continue to see a good market for them. As far as the trainable platform is concerned, well, Chess has provided those for a number of other applications. For example, very large seaborne radars weighing several tons make use of Chess's platforms, being supplied by world-leading defense prime contractors. They come to us for that kind of technology.
So really, with that background, we're sort of perfectly placed to provide this kind of technology, and I'm sure there will be many other important applications for it to come. I hope that there's somebody who wants to answer any questions. Could we have the next one, Rachel?
Great. Thank you. The next question comes from Tim Freeborn from Slater Investments. He asks, "What is the likely profile over the revenue for this contract? Is there guidance on margin?"
Thanks. Thanks, Tim, and delighted that you're on board. I'm going to invite Simon to talk about that, but I think I can say that there is limited guidance that we'll be able to give on margin for obvious commercial reasons. Simon, over to you.
Yeah, Tim. In terms of the revenue, as I sort of indicated in my earlier slide, there's a ramp-up over the next year, so around about GBP 5 million in the coming year, and then it moves up into the sort of above GBP 10 million. As I said, we've mixed it in with Australia and Canada for this upgrade, but those two are only GBP 15 million each over 10 years almost. So you can see the vast proportion of the revenue is coming from this programme, and I would envisage it running at around the sort of mid-teens, you know, around GBP 15 million per annum over that period.
It is very some of it will be dependent upon the shipbuild program of the Royal Navy, so there will be probably ups and downs over that period. But at the moment, that's our sort of modeling. So it's relatively flat.
Once we get up the hill, it'll be then a sort of plateau we expect for sort of seven to eight years after that.
Great. Thank you. Apologies. The next question comes from Andrew Peck from Investec. He says, "You've indicated the GBP 135 million contract value could increase over time. Could you give some color on what could drive the increases, and would this be additional vessels, for example, or are the capability upgrades on the roadmap?"
There isn't much I can say about that because the MOD has asked us not to say too much about it. What I can say, though, is that it's an inflation-indexed contract, and so it will naturally go up over time. In fact, it already has to a certain extent. And it is perfectly possible that additional vessels will be fitted out and that upgrades will be necessary. So both of those vectors are possible, Andy.
We have another question from Andrew. He asks, "Could you comment on the status of the sales pipeline for overseas customers for Ancilia?"
Well, as of today, I hope the probabilities are going up a bit because it's certainly very good to have your domestic customer on board. I wouldn't like to comment on timing, but I can certainly tell you that we're quite closely engaged with at least two other customers.
Great. And the next question is from Nicholas Fox from Raymond James. He says, "I'm a bit surprised that your estimate of the international market is not larger. Might it be reasonable to assume that given the urgency of the threats, you may well be in export negotiations currently?
As I think I just mentioned, we are closely engaged already with a number of customers. I did use the word conservative in front of the estimate of GBP 250 million. You know, we don't want to send anyone's pulses racing too fast. There is competition out there. We had to face quite a bit of it in order to win this one. But as I've indicated, I think this demonstrates that we have got some really quite substantial advantages to the other systems that are out there.
The next question is from Richard Fowler from Raymond James. He says, "Is Ancilia intended purely as a defensive system, or can it be deployed offensively?"
No, it is intended purely as a self-defence system for the ships. We do, of course, also provide torpedo launchers, which are not quite as defensive. And there is certainly the possibility that Ancilia could be widened to provide countermeasures against threats other than airborne, perhaps on the surface or under the surface. But no, it is very much a self-defence system.
Thank you. The next question comes from Aidan Bell from Close Brothers. He asks, "How will the revenue from the GBP 135 be shown on the cash flow statement?"
Simon, I'm going to invite you to respond.
Yes. Aidan, obviously, again, we've made a fairly simple assumption at this stage that the cash will flow through from the project, basically revenue less cost of sales. Now, the likelihood is that there will probably be a bit of a cash burst in the first three to four years as we sort of prime the supply chain, particularly for the long lead items. So I suspect we'll be a bit ahead on cash than revenue, and then that will unwind over the rest of the program. But obviously, as I guided earlier, you can see that it's uplifting our external forecasts by around about GBP 4 million-GBP 5 million over the next two years, and I would expect that sort of delta to apply into the future years, really.
Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Peck from Investec. He says, "Could you comment on the status of the sales pipeline for overseas customers for Ancilia?"
I think we might have done that one already, Rachel.
Oh, my apologies.
Sorry.
The next question is, "How does the contract flow by revenue type by client?" from Robin Speakman from Shore Capital Markets.
Can we say that one? Yes, I think so, Simon.
Yeah, I mean, Robin, this is basically how we recognize this will be under IFRS 15. We will recognize this revenue over time based on the cost input because, A, we've got to sort of although we've got a product, it obviously needs bespoking for the Royal Navy. It is linked to ship programs, and in my experience, ships tend to be later rather than earlier when it comes to being fitted. But we're obviously delinked ourselves from that to a certain extent in that we will supply the product even if the ship's not ready. Now, there will be elements of the supply that will involve what we call harbor acceptance and sea acceptance trials, but that will be a relatively small proportion of the overall contract. It's much more about actually building them, supplying them, and fitting them.
So yeah, I think we will and that's why at the moment I'm assuming the revenue for the sort of back half of the project, or I'd say the second seven years, is relatively flat at this stage. But I suspect it will go up and down a bit too.
Great. Thank you. The next question is from Robin Speakman again from Shore Capital Markets. He asks, "Does SEA do the integration itself or work with other client/partners?"
Well, we've got a number of important subcontractors, not least Chess Dynamics on the program, but it will be SEA leading on the installation and integration of cells, yeah. That's a very important part of their capability, something that they've worked very experienced with on ships for the Royal Navy and other navies around the world.
Thank you. The next question is from Peter Ashworth. He asks, "Does Ancilia offer scope for retrofit as well as newly built vessels?"
Hello, Peter. Nice to have you on my list. The answer is yes, very much so. We're looking at opportunities both for new build and for retrofit. It's one of the advantages of the Ancilia system that its small deck footprint is only the same as a fixed launcher would be. So any ship that's already fitted with fixed launchers could, in principle, take Ancilia.
Thank you. The next question is from Paul Marriage at Tellworth. He said, "Well done to SEA and Chess teams. Is this the first time Cohort has won a contract head-to-head versus Global Primes?"
Certainly not. No, I mean, and thanks for that, Paul. No, one of the features of the business model is that by effectively eliminating a large coordination layer between the people running operational businesses and the people in the headquarters, we are very cost-effective. So to give you one very good example, recently, winning the Italian submarine sonar programme against competition from the world-leading companies in submarine sonars, for a very substantial piece of work. I mean, the initial order was over EUR 50 million. We've subsequently had another ship sending another EUR 16 million. So that gives you an idea of the fact that we can take on these big international primes in the areas where we've got this kind of world-class expertise, and we can win. And we expect to continue to be able to do that.
Thank you. The next question is from Tim Freeborn from Slater Investments. "Can you remind us about the other interesting opportunities which aren't in your forecast yet but may soon emerge?"
Well, we've indicated a few of those over the years. I'm reluctant to get into a great deal of specific detail, but I can tell you, for example, that on our Portuguese subsidiary, EID, at the moment, we're in deep negotiations for quite a substantial value of opportunity spread across several opportunities, mostly for the Portuguese Navy, but also one large one not for the Portuguese Navy. I'm certainly optimistic of being able to give some good news on those in the next few months. Exactly what we're going to win and what the value is going to be, I really couldn't tell you at the moment. That'll be great news for EID because they've had a slightly barren few years. Beyond that, we see really good opportunities at pretty much all of our businesses.
SEA certainly sees more, as I've indicated, certainly in the area of trainable decoy launchers, but in other areas of its business too. It's recently winning some very good work on submarine communications. Chess really sees some fantastic opportunities in terms of systems to counter drones on land-based vehicles, which because of what's happening in Ukraine, it's really driving a lot of investment from many European and other militaries as well. So yeah, overall, I would say that the situation is positive for us as far as opportunities are concerned. It's as good as I can recall it being.
The next question is from Nicholas Fox from Raymond James. "You mentioned the level of competition. Was price an important aspect in winning the contract, or do you think your product is better than that of your rivals? Thank you."
I think our product is better than that of our rivals. As I indicated before, we do have an advantage in cost structure over most of our rivals, and that comes directly from our business model. But as I've mentioned, I mean, in terms of meeting a very demanding set of performance criteria, we were able to do that. Not only were we able to say we could do it, we were able to demonstrate we could do it with the prototype that you see a video of today. And in addition, we were able to meet the very demanding low-size and mass requirements for the navy, not only valuable to them, but also it's that that helps to open up a really big export opportunity as well. So those are the reasons.
Great. We have no further questions on the webcast, so I'll hand back over to you for any closing remarks.
Okay. Well, I'd like to thank everyone for joining us on the webcast this afternoon. It's been a pleasure to talk to you, especially because we've had some quite good news to share. I'll leave you with a reminder that has taken our order book over GBP 500 million for the first time ever, and as well as providing a strong boost to our numbers over the coming 10 years, it also substantially opens up new export opportunities for us. Thanks once more for your attention, and goodbye for now.