Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our 2025 full- year results presentation. I'm joined by Andy Branchflower, our CFO, as well as Steve Nightingale, our Interim Head of Investor Relations. Looking briefly at the agenda for today, I'll start with an overview of the year and the progress we've made across the business before revisiting the consumer trends shaping our category. Andy will then take you through the financial results, after which I'll cover strategic developments in the U.S., as well as a broader business review before we wrap up with a short summary and open the call to questions.
Twenty twenty-five was a pivotal year for Fever-Tree. Despite a more challenging backdrop across parts of the drinks industry, we made excellent strategic progress while continuing to strengthen the brand. Most notably, we established a transformational platform for growth in the U.S. through our partnership with Molson Coors. At the same time, our diversification strategy continues to gain scale, with products beyond tonic now representing around 45% of group revenue, reflecting the broadening number of occasions in which consumers enjoy the brand. In the U.K., our off-trade performance remained resilient, with continued growth and share gains, Christmas trading delivering Fever-Tree's highest retail value share since December 2020.
Importantly, globally, we also extended our leadership position in premium mixers and continued to gain market share across many of our key regions, reinforcing the strength of the Fever-Tree brand versus the competition. In looking ahead, while the geopolitical and consumer backdrop clearly remains uncertain, the strength of the brand and the platform we have built leave us well positioned, and we remain comfortable with market expectations for 2026.
As we highlighted in our interim results, the long-term consumer trends shaping our category remain firmly in our favor. Across the drinks landscape, we continue to see three structural trends at play, premiumization, moderation, and the growth of longer, lighter mixed serves. Consumers are increasingly choosing quality over quantity, seeking premium experiences whether they're drinking alcohol or not. At the same time, moderation is reshaping social occasions, with people increasingly moving between alcoholic and non-alcoholic choices across a single occasion. This is driving the growth of longer, lighter drinks, refreshing mixed serves and premium adult soft drinks that fit naturally into modern social occasions. Together, these trends are expanding the range of occasions in which premium drinks are enjoyed, creating a significant opportunity for brands that can participate credibly across both mixing and premium soft drink moments.
As you can see on this slide, our portfolio is designed exactly for these moments. Having favorable trends in the category is only part of the story. Fever-Tree is particularly well positioned to capture this opportunity. First, we have strong premium credentials with a brand that consumers increasingly associate with quality. Second, we have a deep understanding of the category with a long track record of innovation across mixers and premium soft drinks. Third, we've developed significant global consumer reach with growing penetration across many of our major markets. Finally, we have built a bespoke route to market, working with specialist partners across both the on- and off-trade to ensure the brand is executed consistently and effectively at scale. Taken together, these strengths mean Fever-Tree is uniquely well positioned to capture the opportunity created by those evolving consumer trends.
Alongside those favorable trends and our strong competitive position, the other defining strength of Fever-Tree is the business model itself. Fever-Tree combines a powerful global brand with an increasingly asset-light operating model. As the brand continues to grow, that model creates a virtuous circle where revenue growth drives increasing levels of cash generation. That gives us the flexibility to continue investing behind the global opportunity while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation.
As Andy will talk about later, the Molson Coors partnership strengthens this dynamic further. It combines Fever-Tree's brand strength with Molson Coors' scale and capabilities in the U.S. while supporting a step change in marketing investment behind the brand. At the same time, the structure of the partnership improves the quality of our earnings and cash generation over time. That strong foundation allows us to continue expanding the brand into a broader range of products and occasions.
One of the ways that we're doing this is through the continued diversification of the Fever-Tree portfolio. While tonic remains the anchor of the brand, our broader range has grown strongly and is now a significant driver of growth across the group. As highlighted, products beyond tonic now represent around 45% of group revenue, reflecting the strong consumer response to the wider portfolio. Importantly, this growth complements our mixer heritage rather than replacing it. Many of these products, such as ginger beer and sodas, work across both mixed drink and standalone occasions.
This combination of a strong core mixer business alongside a growing portfolio of adjacent products is helping us build an even broader and more ambitious brand. We're seeing particularly strong traction from this broader portfolio across a number of markets. In France, our Ginger Beer continues to perform exceptionally well, gaining strong traction across both cocktail occasions and sophisticated premium soft drink. In Australia and New Zealand, our premium soft drinks have delivered extremely strong growth from what was essentially a standing start. In the U.K., our non-alcoholic ready-to-drink launches have been the fastest-selling innovation in Fever-Tree's history, with very strong early demand and distribution already expanding further this year. Across each of these examples, the common theme is that Fever-Tree's premium credentials allow the brand to move naturally into adjacent occasions while strengthening the overall opportunity.
I'll now hand over to Andy to take you through the financial performance.
Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. Fever-Tree brand revenue accelerated in the second half to deliver 4% constant currency growth in 2025. While EBITDA was impacted by the transition into the Molson Coors partnership, working capital improved significantly to drive strong underlying cash flow and contributed to the return of over GBP 120 million to shareholders in the year through dividends and share buybacks.
Turning the page. In the U.S., we were pleased to deliver 6% constant currency growth across the year. Brand momentum remained strong throughout the transition, and we continued to increase share, extending our leadership position again in the ginger beer and tonic categories. Now, as we move beyond the transition phase, the partnership with Molson Coors, the new distribution network, and a step change in marketing investment provides the platform for an acceleration in U.S.
Growth in 2026 and beyond. In the U.K., we saw a change in momentum as we progressed through the year, improving from -6% in H1 to flat in H2. We delivered low single-digit growth in the off-trade and achieved our highest share at retail during Christmas trading since 2020. While in the on-trade, as has been well-publicized, the backdrop remains challenging. U.K. innovation launched over recent years is performing well in both channels, with non-tonic products, including our premium soft drinks and cocktail mixers, growing at an 11% CAGR and now making up almost a third of our sales mix, which alongside our category leadership, strong brand awareness, and broad household penetration, will provide the platform for an improved U.K. performance in 2026.
We continue to see a range of dynamics across different markets in Europe, delivering strong Ginger Beer-driven growth in France and an encouraging performance in Benelux, while seeing a weaker performance in Germany, where category headwinds remain in place. We're driving category growth across European retail and increasing value share. Ginger Beer remains a notable growth driver within Europe, up 20% at retail and further extending our category leadership.
Finally, the Rest of World region is performing well. While the 22% growth benefited from some order phasing, underlying depletion growth remained strong at 12%, driven by Australia, where our premium soft flavors and formats are delivering strong growth alongside a good performance in Canada.
Turning to the segmental P&L view. In the U.S., we delivered adjusted EBITDA of GBP 8.2 million at a margin of 6.3%. As we spoke to earlier in the year, the move to the U.S. partnership has initially impacted U.S. EBITDA margins, not only because of the incremental costs associated with the transition, but also because we're now in a partnership and so share U.S. profits with Molson Coors. Again, as we've spoken to, over the medium term, we expect U.S. profitability to improve significantly from this base, driven by Molson Coors' economies of scale, especially as production is increasingly onshore to the U.S.
Over the initial years of the partnership, these underlying profitability improvements will be partially tempered by a significant increase in U.S. marketing spend, which will run through the partnership P&L, providing the catalyst to deliver strong U.S. revenue growth in the years to come. Crucially, of course, Molson Coors have guaranteed a minimum level of Fever-Tree's U.S. profits over the period from 2026- 2030, underlining their confidence in the opportunity and underpinning our confidence in the ability to deliver against EBITDA expectations over the medium term.
In the Rest of the Group, we've continued to drive margin recovery with the EBITDA margin improving by 120 basis points to 23.6%, driven by pricing and continued operational efficiencies and cost savings. This margin improvement was delivered despite an increase of 7% in marketing spend across the segment as we look to increasingly invest in the broadening opportunity across adult socializing occasions. This margin improvement was also delivered after the recognition of GBP 4.4 million of cost relating to the EPR packaging levy in the U.K.
While GBP 1.6 million of this related to off-trade sales and was paid in the year, as we previously disclosed, we believe that the key glass format we sell in the on-trade is exempt from the levy. In the last few weeks, discussions on this matter with the Environment Agency have intensified to the extent that we have launched a formal legal challenge against them. Following this specific development and discussions with our auditors, we now consider it prudent to raise a GBP 2.8 million provision in our final 2025 result. We do, however, remain confident in our position and intend to pursue our legal challenge with vigor. Of course, should we be successful, this provision will be reversed in 2026.
Finally, while central costs increase year-on-year, we're focused on delivering efficiencies going forward as we benefit from the investments we've made in technology and streamlined operational processes, which should provide a further tailwind to group EBITDA margin progression over the medium term. We delivered a strong improvement in working capital year-on-year, reflecting a continuation of good work from recent years and the transfer of local U.S. working capital to Molson Coors.
We still retain some U.S. working capital on our balance sheet. However, this will reduce to very low levels over the medium term as U.S. production is increasingly onshored. As a result, we've continued to drive strong cash generation with the cash position up 47% before we take into account movements relating to the Molson Coors equity issue and shareholder returns, which included the completion of the GBP 100 million share buyback program in 2025.
Turning to outlook. It's difficult at this stage to assess the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East, including any broader macroeconomic or geopolitical impacts both this year and beyond. However, outside of an extended and/or worsening disruption, we remain comfortable with current market expectations for strong revenue and EBITDA growth this year.
As a group, we've taken significant steps to improve supply chain resilience in recent years. Among other things, our glass bottles are fully hedged for energy impacts in 2026, and two-thirds hedged for 2027, and even 1/3 hedged for 2028. Clearly though, even before the current Middle East conflict, we'd already witnessed a significant degree of geopolitical volatility in just the first few weeks of the year, not least several shifts in the U.S. tariff position. Against this backdrop, we will continue to monitor emerging risks and prioritize resilience, agility, and responsiveness.
Focusing on our segments. In the U.S., we expect top-line momentum to build through the year as the benefits of the DSD network distribution gains and the doubling in local marketing spend compounds. While FX will impact the translation of Molson Coors invoiced U.S. revenues back to sterling, we don't expect this volatility to have a material impact on U.S. EBITDA.
We expect the overall increase in group EBITDA year-on-year to be driven by the Rest of Group segment and through savings in central costs, while continuing to upweight marketing spend in key markets, notably the U.K. and France. This increase in EBITDA will combine with improving working capital to deliver continued strong cash generation. Turning the page.
As we look forward, we've now established a platform that can drive enhanced quality of earnings over the medium- and long-term. We're confident that strong revenue growth driven by U.S. acceleration will convert to even stronger EBITDA growth over the next three years, all underpinned by guaranteed profit levels in the U.S. That EBITDA growth will then convert to strong cash generation as the working capital investment required to deliver U.S. growth will be increasingly funded by Molson Coors and not Fever-Tree.
This platform illustrates the underlying value of the business, how the Fever-Tree brand, combined with an asset-light business model, drives a virtuous circle from revenue growth to cash. While that incremental cash flow can be used where and when the opportunity arises to further accelerate the group's trajectory, excess cash will be returned to shareholders, as demonstrated by the GBP 30 million extension of the buyback program currently in progress. With that, I'll pass back to Tim.
Thanks, Andy. As we discussed earlier, the partnership with Molson Coors represents a transformational opportunity for Fever-Tree in our largest growth market. Their national network of around 400 distributors serving roughly 500,000 accounts and making around 30,000 deliveries each day provides a powerful platform to accelerate our reach. The opportunity goes beyond just distribution scale. The partnership enables us to grow the brand across three key levers, breadth, depth, and velocity. Expanding the number of outlets stocking the brand, increasing the number of Fever-Tree products in each account, and driving stronger rate of sale through improved execution and marketing investment. Together, these levers create a powerful multiplier for growth in the U.S.
Operationally, the transition into the Molson Coors network has progressed well. The brand is now embedded across their regional distributors nationwide, with the new network servicing the on-trade and liquor channels while the transition of retail customers continues. Over the past few months, I've had the opportunity to spend time in the U.S. on several occasions, not only with the Molson Coors leadership team, but also out in the market, meeting a number of their major distributors across the country.
What has been particularly encouraging is the level of enthusiasm we're seeing for the brand throughout that network. There's a genuine belief and excitement in the opportunity for Fever-Tree within their system. Our former Fever-Tree U.S. team has now been integrated in Molson Coors' enhanced non-alcoholic division, and we've also retained a focus team overseeing the partnership. Importantly, brand momentum has remained strong throughout the transition period, reinforcing our confidence in the opportunity ahead.
The real strength of the partnership lies in execution. Molson Coors brings significant capabilities across availability, merchandising, category insight, and retailer relationships, all of which are critical to driving rate of sale at scale. As mentioned, the brand is now embedded across the Molson Coors distribution network in the on-trade and liquor channels, and the transition of major retail customers into that network will take place progressively through the year. What you see on this slide are some early examples of how the brand is beginning to appear within their system with improved visibility, feature activity, and display.
While the retail transition will continue over the coming months, these examples give a good indication of the type of execution we expect to see build as the partnership develops. Another key part of unlocking that opportunity is the step change in marketing investment that will now sit behind the Fever-Tree brand in the U.S. From next month, Molson Coors will launch the largest-ever marketing program for Fever-Tree in the market, representing a very significant increase in investment, roughly doubling the level of marketing support the brand has historically had in the U.S. We've worked very closely with the Molson Coors team to develop the campaign, ensuring the messaging and creative remain true to the Fever-Tree brand while benefiting from their scale and expertise in executing national programs.
At the heart of the campaign is a simple idea. Fever-Tree is the mix that bartenders reach for, and that's a powerful signal to consumers about the quality of the brand. Importantly, this includes Fever-Tree's first-ever national TV campaign in the U.S., alongside a fully integrated multi-channel program spanning social and streaming media, e-commerce activation, outdoor advertising, sampling tools, sports partnerships, and premium brand experiences. Importantly, this isn't just about media spend. It's about combining that investment with Molson Coors' distribution scale and execution capabilities to drive real visibility for the brand across both retail and on-trade outlets.
Taken together, this represents a genuine step change in how Fever-Tree is supported in the U.S. and provides a powerful platform to accelerate awareness and category development in our largest growth market. Alongside our investment in the U.S., we're also launching our largest ever marketing campaign for the brand across the U.K. and Europe this summer.
Over the past few years, we've successfully broadened the occasions in which consumers enjoy Fever-Tree, and this campaign is designed to build on that momentum. At the heart of it is a new campaign line, "Straight up or mixed, it's a matter of taste." Fever-Tree remains the perfect partner for spirits, but our products are crafted with the same care and quality to be enjoyed on their own as well. Importantly, this isn't about moving away from our mixing credentials. Quite the opposite. It celebrates the versatility of the range while reinforcing Fever-Tree's role at the heart of great mixed drinks. The wider campaign will run across TV, radio, out-of-home, and social, ensuring Fever-Tree has strong visibility across the summer. I'm pleased to say I can share with you one of the TV ads that will be running from next month.
There's no one quite like you, is there? That fiery character, warming undertones. Mixed, you make a spirited Moscow Mule. But even on your own, you still have the most delectable kick. Fever-Tree Ginger Beer, straight up or mixed. It's a matter of taste.
This campaign is an important next step for the brand and one we believe will continue to evolve how consumers think about Fever-Tree. While we continue to invest behind the brand across markets, it's important to remember that tonic and premium mixers more broadly remain at the very heart of Fever-Tree. The gin and tonic remains one of the world's most iconic long drinks and continues to represent a highly significant and profitable part of our business. Globally, the category continues to offer significant headroom for growth. In the U.K. off-trade, we remain the clear category leader and tonic continues to be a focus for retailers. While products beyond tonic are driving much of the recent growth, tonic remains central to the category and an important platform for in-store activation and investment.
In the on-trade, the category has faced a more challenging environment over the past 12-18 months, with cost inflation pushing up menu prices and in some cases overheating the price point of classic serves like the G&T. In response, we've been working closely with hospitality partners on our Signature G&T initiative, simplifying the serve and improving menu visibility to ensure a more consistent and accessible premium price point. The early results are very encouraging. In a six-week trial with a national hospitality partner, the initiative delivered a revenue uplift of around 185%, and we're now rolling this out across a number of major customers over the summer. Building on that strong tonic foundation, innovation continues to expand the occasions in which consumers enjoy the Fever-Tree brand.
The launches we're bringing to market this year reflect the same consumer trends we discussed earlier, premiumization, moderation, and longer lighter serves. In the U.K., we're expanding our non-alcoholic range with the launch of our Mediterranean G&T multipack and new non-alcoholic mojito ready-to-drink. In Australia, in partnership with Angostura, we've introduced a market-specific Lemon, Lime & Bitters, a classic serve in that market that fits naturally with our premium soft drink credentials. We're also expanding our Ginger Beer range with new flavors launching across markets, including France, the U.K., and Canada.
To summarize, 2025 has been a year of excellent strategic progress for Fever-Tree. First, the core mixer business remains strong, with tonic continuing to anchor the brand and our leadership position strengthening across our key markets. Second, our diversification strategy continues to broaden the brand into new occasions. Third, the strategic partnership Molson Coors provides a transformational platform in the U.S. Andy also highlighted the continued strength in the quality of our earnings, with strong cash generation underpinning the business. Importantly, the Fever-Tree brand remains extremely healthy, continuing to gain share and build momentum globally.
Looking ahead, and as I referenced earlier, while the geopolitical and consumer backdrop clearly remains uncertain, the strength of the brand and the platform we have built leave us well positioned, and we remain comfortable with market expectation for 2026. Thank you. We'll now open the call to questions.
Thank you. Our first question is from Edward Mundy from Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Morning, Tim. Morning, Andy. Three questions for me, please. The first is on this more explicit shift to diversify towards a more multi-beverage adult socializing platform. I'd love to get any early feedback from the trade as part of its initiatives. Then sort of how do you think about the total addressable market you know under this strategy which you know in theory should increase quite considerably, i s my first question. The second is on the U.S. Tim, you talked about the breadth, the depth, the velocity, all getting an uplift as part of the Molson Coors deal. Can you talk about some of the sequencing of that, especially with the spring resets coming?
Then the third question, perhaps for Andy. You mentioned that your supply chain is much more resilient today relative to history. Can you provide perhaps some more details around that? What's really different, you know, relative to the 2021- 2023 period when there was quite a lot of inflation on some of your cost items?
Morning, Ed. Thanks for the questions. Look, I mean, the first one— I mean, obviously, I mentioned it a number of times in the presentation— but you know, just stepping back, I mean, we are truly excited about the opportunity that you know, adult soft drinks more generally presents for Fever-Tree. You know, we have this rather unique position as a brand where we have all of these sort of premium and sophisticated credentials which adults are searching for when they're looking for non-alcoholic alternatives. That is why we have been diversifying our range the way we have over these last you know, six or seven years particularly.
The results are now really starting to come through, hence the fact that, you know, 45%, as we say, of our business is now coming from the beyond tonic products. I look here in the U.K. and see, you know, those are the ones that have been growing. You know, I look over the last three years, and they've been growing sort of, you know, strong double-digit growth, you know, that side of our portfolio. With it, of course, you know, retailers are starting to open up more shelf space. They're starting to want more and differentiated pack formats, you know, to help drive this occasion. In the on-trade as well, we're starting to see the fact that, you know, this is a range that they really want to be able to offer to their customers.
We're seeing more and more distribution opportunities, you know, for the brand there as well. We're really seeing it in our results. Your question about addressable markets. You know, I mean, it's hard, and we're a bit cautious about putting numbers, you know, around it. But look, in the U.K., if we say that the mixer category is, you know, GBP 600 million-GBP 700 million or so across on- and off-trade, we see that the premium soft drink category that currently stands as bigger than that. It's currently about GBP 1 billion out of a GBP 14 billion soft drink category in the U.K. That doesn't even take into account the non-alcoholic category, which is already about the same size as the mixer category in the U.K.
Clearly, there is a lot to go after, and that's just in the U.K. market and, you know, setting out, you know, that sort of market size. If you start to multiply that out across, you know, markets around the world, there's plenty of addressable market to go after. And clearly, that's what we're continuing to set our sights on. Hence, as we say, we just see a broadening opportunity for the Fever-Tree brand, and we consider ourselves to be in a pretty unique global position to be able to make the most of it.
Moving on, you're asking about the U.S., and you know, how we're going to address that market as it unfolds with Molson Coors. Well, look, as we say, you know, last year was transition year with Molson, and we think collectively we did a very good job. It's pretty rare, as I think you'll know, Ed, in the world of drinks to transition in such a major market with so many thousands of distribution points, and still manage that whilst growing the brand and the business. Clearly, that's a great reflection of the way the partnership is working and unfolding and also, of course, the underlying strength of the brand that we were still able to grow despite all of that disruption. You know, excitingly, this year is now about starting to build the distribution from here.
Look, this is something that naturally will happen, you know, progressively over the year. You talked about things like, you know, resets at retail. We are going to see those develop as the year unfolds. You know, there's no question that for Molson Coors' side and their distribution network, they are very optimistic when it comes to these resets and the distribution that they will gain as the year develops. I mean, I had you know, the benefit of going out to speak to three of Molson's major distributors. I went to see the guys in Florida, J.J. Taylor. I went to see Manhattan Beer in Manhattan, and I also ended up seeing Reyes, chief exec of Reyes in Chicago. You know, I mean, I knew about it before, but I you know, was struck when I actually went to see them.
You forget about the size and scale of these businesses, you know. I mean, Reyes itself is a $25 billion turnover business. It was fantastic to hear from the chief exec how genuinely excited they are about having the Fever-Tree brand now in their network. 'Cause as he was explaining, you know, it's just like Molson Coors, is that, you know, they are very keen to build their beyond beer portfolio, you know, because they're seeing the decline in beer as well as Molson. They want strategic brands to be able to drive their beyond beer business. They see Fever-Tree as a real feather in their cap. As he was explaining, they are very ambitious for this brand and will be putting real focus, resource, and sales incentives behind it.
That was, you know, the same comment that I heard, you know, across the other two distributors when I went to see them. Look, there's no question that they're optimistic about the distribution that they're gonna gain as the year develops. I'm also very excited about finally putting our foot down on marketing in that market. I mean, that is something that I have been very excited about doing since I first, you know, arrived in the U.S., I think it was 19 years ago with a sample bag.
You know, to now have the opportunity to really start to actually advertise the brand above the line and build that awareness and build that household penetration is why I think this is such a sort of pivotal moment for the brand and why we're so excited about it. A lot to go after. No question that Molson and their network are excited about it, and there's no question in my mind we will see this distribution come through as the year develops.
Ed, yeah, in terms of your question about, I suppose supply chain resilience, as I said, it's been a huge focus here, particularly the last couple of years, and it's testament to great work that the team's done. I think it's also testament to the great work our suppliers have done as well. Sadly, everyone's had to get used to operating in an environment where uncertainty and volatility is becoming a more consistent theme.
When you look at the potential impact of what's happening in the Middle East, to talk to some specifics, as I mentioned, we've got a very good position in terms of hedging of energy costs into our glass, fully hedged for this year, well hedged into 2027 and into 2028. Our aluminum cans are well hedged. If you then go down to the level of our bottlers, they're well protected and well hedged on their energy costs for this year. You go down to the level of our ingredients and, you know, we've bought forward things like sugar, key ingredients like quinine are well stockpiled as well.
Generally, as a business and as a supply chain, the focus on resilience over the last couple of years is really coming to the fore when we're thinking about the potential impact of what's currently going on. I think the other aspect as well isn't just about the preparedness to deal with the uncertainty. It's the fact that if you think about the supply-demand dynamics, they are quite different to what we saw, particularly in 2022 post Ukraine.
If we talk about glass, which was our sort of major exposure back then, what happened is, you know, demand for glass was strong, but on the supply side, a huge amount of supply was taken out by the fact that, you know, Ukraine and also Russia was no longer supplying glass into Europe. There was this mismatch of demand supply. On top of that, you know, a lot of glass suppliers weren't fully hedged because that hadn't been required historically. There was an ability to pass through or share what were really significant spikes in European gas prices in 2022 into 2023. Again, it's a very different position. Glass suppliers are well hedged now on the back of that sort of experience.
Secondly, the gas pricing increases we've seen in Europe are significant, but nowhere near the levels we saw post Ukraine. Thirdly, those supply demand dynamics are very different. Demand in glass is lower than it has been very consistent in terms of our requirements for glass. We're in a very strong position. We've built very strong partnerships with our glass supply base. All of those factors put us in as good a position as possible to be able to mitigate, you know, the potential headwinds that the current situation in the Middle East will come from the current situation and hence, you know, that underpins our confidence this morning in reiterating that we're comfortable with market expectations.
Thanks, Andy. If I could just follow up on North Atlantic freight as well. That was another area where, you know, when the global economy restarted post-COVID, it was hard to get, you know, your crates on a ship and even harder to sort of unload them. How's the situation today?
Yeah.
Question on North Atlantic freight as well?
Again, that was in large part driven by sort of the demand dynamic. There was significant demand into the U.S. over the COVID period and beyond. That created, you know, contributed to the significant spike in those transatlantic freight costs. We're not seeing that happen at the moment. If you think again about demand into the U.S., we've had a year of tariffs, and that inflow into the market has dropped. Again, as someone who is still consistently sending product into the market, that's allowed us to command really good freight rates with our partners in that regard. We're well hedged in terms of that pricing for this year. There is a variable element on any logistics contract which pertains to the fuel cost.
To reassure, you know, if we look at where current sort of fuel prices are, and obviously they're elevated from where they would've been a couple of weeks ago, but if they were to continue for the rest of this year, the actual impact to our P&L would be not material. We think about circa GBP 1 million, which would be a level we feel comfortable we can mitigate. Again, very different backdrop to what we saw coming out of COVID in that regard as well.
Great. Thanks so much.
Thank you, Edward. Our next question is from Ashutosh Jain from Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Tim. Thank you, Andy, for taking my question. My first question was like, you know, partially taken, previously, so just wanted some more color on that. I appreciate the detailed color of the glass hedging, but on freight cost, you know, as I heard, the freight cost is like, you know, like you mentioned, it's like mostly hedged this year, and you expect the impact to be around like GBP 1 million for this full year. Like, you know, given like most of the U.S. volumes are still produced in U.K. and then they are like shipped to this. How do you see the mix evolving, into this like 2026?
Sorry, in terms of the mix evolving, I think, if I understand your question, look, we are, the plan is that the production will remain materially from the U.K. into the U.S. this year; t hat's built into guidance. As I say, we've got pricing agreed on transatlantic freight. There's a variable element for fuel, but when you flow that through to our P&L at current rates, that's relatively low impact, which we're comfortable with, we'd be able to mitigate.
Okay. How confident are you like, you know, like previously it was like, you know, U.S. onshoring would be done by fiscal year 2027 and because Molson also has a glass furnace, so that would kind of, you know, play into your glass cost also because of its backward integration. How do you see that evolving going next year, like fiscal year 2027?
Yeah. Look, when we announced the deal, you know, obviously one of the, you know, one of the great advantages of the deal is that Molson are gonna be managing the onshoring of local production and bringing all of their expertise and economies of scale to bear. We spoke to the fact that was a medium-term plan, and there's lots of work going on between us and them in terms of preparing for that, and we expect that production to you know build over time, particularly as we look at 2027. I think separately almost to that, we talked about this guaranteed profit mechanism which provides to us the benefits of that local production from 2027 onwards.
There's a disaggregation between the specific phasing of that build and the P&L benefits that we'll, you know, benefit from next year, which gives us that confidence in the medium-term guidance and expectations in the market for the U.S. at the moment.
Like on the glass impact?
Our next question is from Fintan Ryan from Goodbody. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
On the glass impact. Sorry, I missed what was the [inaudible].
I think, that Ashutosh will have to dial back in to ask the rest of his question. We have now moved on to Fintan. Thank you.
Yeah. Morning, Tim. Good morning, Andy. Morning, Steve. Three questions from me, please. Firstly, I appreciate you're not disclosing it specifically anymore.
Right.
Given the change in reporting structure. Could you give a sense for your business ex-U.S., what the gross margin was for FY 2025 and how you expect that, bearing in mind the hedges that you have in place and your product mix, to move forward into 2026? And then with the new marketing campaigns, which look really exciting, how much incremental money are you putting behind that specifically? Secondly, just on your U.K. business, obviously it's still a big part of the group and you've delivered sort of flat to better revenue performance in the second half of 2025. How do you expect that to continue into 2026?
Like, particularly on-trade versus off-trade, what are you sort of budgeting at this point in time? Then just a final question, the Extended Producer Responsibility costs. I appreciate again, it's up for a legal dispute, but do you have any other mitigating actions that you can take in terms of packaging mix or any other pricing or net revenue growth management tools to mitigate that levy if the legal dispute goes against you? Thank you.
Yeah. Okay. Thanks for those, Fintan. I'll take those. Look, we aren't breaking out the gross margin in the Rest of Group segment, but I think what we can say is we saw, as we were seeing previous to last year, a recovery and an improvement in that gross margin. We saw that in 2025, and we'd be confident of continuing to deliver improvement in that underlying gross margin in 2026. Partly because we've got that kind of hedged pricing on some of the key components of our cost card like glass, energy, and ostensibly the filling as well. From a marketing perspective, that continued improvement in gross margin in the Rest of Group segment plus top- line growth allows for incremental spend, and we're disproportionately weighting that to the U.K.
You've seen the campaign we're gonna be running there and France as well. Even with notwithstanding that incremental marketing spend, we're still confident that can drop through to an improvement in EBITDA margin in that Rest of Group segment. From a U.K. kind of momentum- perspective, we expect to see pretty similar channel dynamics if you take the off-trade, which actually, if you look at H2 growth in the off-trade last year was 5%. That's driven by, you know, fundamentally this dynamic that we've got really fantastic momentum beyond tonic. And tonic sort of starting to find more of a level playing field as well, which ultimately means almost law of numbers dictates you can be quite confident that the growth we can drive in that off-trade channel.
The on-trade, as we say, has remained challenging. It softened slightly in the second half, and we've got proactive activities and a good range of those to really put into place this year, which gives us confidence that we can continue to improve performance there, albeit we do expect it to remain a challenging backdrop. All together, that pulls together. If you look at expectations sort of flat to low single-digit growth in the U.K., which we're comfortable with. Finally on EPR. Sorry, Fintan, can you just remind the specifics of your—o h, from mitigation?
Yeah.
Sorry. Yeah. Look, there's various levers.
Yeah.
That you can imagine that we'd be looking at, and it remains very early in the year. So should we not, you know, be successful in our legal dispute, we'd be confident we've got levers that can protect our ability to deliver against that GBP 50 million EBITDA this year.
Understood. Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks, Fintan.
Our next question is from Anubhav Malhotra from Panmure Liberum. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi, team. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one, just again on EPR. Can I just clarify the guidance for 2026? So are you comfortable with the market guidance? The market probably does not have the full EPR cost for the GBP 4.4 million that you saw in 2025 for 2026 in the estimates. Would you expect the market to bring the next year's guidance down accordingly for the extra GBP 2.6 million if you have to pay them next year if the challenge is not successful? Or are you okay with where the market is at the moment?
The second one on M&A. I know you mentioned M&A in the presentation. Maybe just explain to us what geographies you are looking at when you're thinking about M&A. Is it a lot more U.K.-focused, where you have the probably the best distribution route to market? Or are you looking in purely the off-trade, or are you looking at brand which could go both into off and on-trade? Just a specific account around how you're thinking about M&A opportunities. The last one on Germany. That's the weakest market that you have in Europe. What are the issues there and how you're dealing with it? Any color on that would be really great. Thank you.
Firstly, just to clarify on EPR. Remember, there are two parts to this. There is the off-trade element, which we are not disputing. This is a tax to cover household recycling and the products we sell into the off-trade end up in household recycling. That was a GBP 1.5 million cost in 2025, which was paid, and we would anticipate it being very similar this year. That is all kind of built into expectations and guidance. As we have said on the on-trade, we dispute. We are very clear in our interpretation of the legislation that the products we are selling in on-trade do not end up in household recycling. Therefore, we still remain confident in our position. We took the provision in 2025. If we subsequently win the legal case, that provision will get released into this year, so that would be a tailwind.
If we don't win the legal case, then it would be an incremental GBP 3 million cost we'd have to work to mitigate this year. We feel confident that at that level, we have the levers and the time to find mitigations, which is why overall we remain comfortable with the GBP 50 million market expectation for this year's EBITDA.
Just let me just pick up very briefly on the M&A question. Look, I mean, as you know, this business has been, for the last 21 years, totally focused on the Fever-Tree brand, and growing organically. We're certainly not flagging any change, d ramatic change of strategy. All we're saying is that, you know, as we continue to generate yet more cash, we will of course consider the best ways to deploy that cash. That means that we will always be looking at M&A opportunities.
Please, you know, don't read into that there's, you know, suddenly a change of strategy. We're just flagging that we continue to look and assess, you know, where there could be opportunities to help, you know, build and boost the business. Nothing to announce here.
On Germany, I think your question, look, in terms of consumer sentiment, that market, particularly the last couple of years, has been quite hard hit a nd you see that manifest in performance across all the drinks categories in Germany. It's notable across Europe. You know, within that, again, I think we've done a good job. We've continued to increase share, and we have started to see that position soften in the sort of last stages of last year. we expect to return to growth this year, and we've started the year well as well in Germany with a really good plan. we're optimistic that finally that we could be turning the corner in that market. It has been a tougher set of conditions in recent years, and we've called that out in previous reporting as well.
Our last question today is from Damian McNeela from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hey, morning, Tim, Andy, and Steve. Thanks for taking the questions. First question is on whether you could elaborate on how retailer discussions are with positioning as Fever-Tree as an adult soft drink, whether you're able to gain either extra distribution, particularly in C- stores or gain extra shelf space to accommodate the push into adult soft drinks. The first question. Second question is on incentivization of U.S. sales teams. I think, sorry, Tim, you mentioned, there's some sort of incentivization sort of schemes in place. I was wondering whether you could elaborate on what they are. The last question is just on the EPR dispute. Have you got any timings on potential resolution of that, please?
Hi, Damian. Nice to hear from you. So look, first question in terms of the adult soft drink. I mean, as you will, I hope have seen in your local stores, you know, we are gaining more space in different parts of the store. There's an adult soft drink section in most retailers, where we're now very well represented. But we've also found our way into their non-alcoholic section with our non-alcoholic RTDs. But I think the really interesting thing here is that the retailers themselves are realizing that there is a change in demand, you know, that there is this growing demand from adults for better quality, more sophisticated soft drinks. They are also looking at how they can increase their shelf space to accommodate that.
The fantastic thing for us is we're one of the brands that they are talking to about the kind of range that we can help support them with these growing ambitions. Hence, you'll see some more non-alcoholic RTDs launch this year that we've presented in the plan just now and also some other formats that we're gonna be rolling out. There is just a wider conversation going on at the moment. We are optimistic that we're gonna see sort of notably more shelf space given over to this new desire and effectively new category. That's why, you know, we're so well positioned to help lead that and have these conversations with retailers to help scope, you know, the nature and style of the category that they want to present.
With regards to incentivization, this is just all simply part of, you know, the Molson Coors themselves with their sales team, as you can imagine, have incentivizations in place throughout the year. Fever-Tree is gonna be one of those brands that they incentivize their sales teams with. At the same time, their 400 distributors also run incentivization programs across their sales teams. Again, Fever-Tree is going to be one of those. In terms of the actual financial details, as you can imagine, that's something they keep as proprietary information. The exciting thing is we are going to be in those packages, and that will be for the first time.
In terms of timing, Damian, this is pretty live. We don't actually have a specific date yet, but we've been told to expect within the next couple of months for the next step in the process. Of course, we'll keep everyone up to date as that progresses through the year.
Thank you. We are now concluding the webcast as we are out of time. Please direct all outstanding questions to Steve Nightingale by email. This concludes today's Fever-Tree full- year results presentation. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.