Next 15 Group plc (AIM:NFG)
316.00
-14.00 (-4.24%)
Oct 19, 2026, 2:46 PM GMT
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Earnings Call: H1 2027
Oct 8, 2026
Summary
H1 like-for-like revenue declined 1.3%, while Track 1 grew 1.8% and adjusted operating margin rose 70 bps to 14.9%. Monthly growth returned June–September; full-year like-for-like growth is expected in line with market expectations.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm Sam Knights, Chief Executive of Next 15, and I have Mickey Kalifa, our CFO, our Chief Financial Officer, with me here. Just over 12 months ago, in our first interim presentation together, we told you that we needed to simplify and refocus Next 15 to return it to growth. Today, I hope that we can show you the early evidence that transformation is starting to work. I'll cover where we are. Mickey will talk through the financial review, and then I'll come back for strategy and outlook, and we'll finish with any questions that you may have. The key headlines are as follows. There are six key messages that we will explore today. The first one is that we are starting to see some positive momentum in this business.
Like-for-like net revenue was down 1.3% at constant currency for the first six months of the year. Whilst that is a decline, it is favorable given the market conditions. More importantly, the group returned to organic growth in three consecutive months, June, July, and August for the first time in three years. We found out this morning that that continues into September as well. Second, Track 1, the businesses that we are investing in grew. Revenue in these businesses was up 1.8% like-for-like, and profit also grew with improved margins at 18.4%. Thirdly, our simplification plan is delivering. When Mickey and I started these roles last summer, there were 22 different businesses in the group. There are 10 businesses in the group today.
Most recently, as part of our Track 2 review, we announced the partial asset sale of our creative services business, Elvis, to Wonderhood, and we retained profitable Digital Commerce practice, too. Within that, we've also continued to focus on operational discipline with our headcount down a further 5% in the half. In the last 12 months, that's a total reduction of around a fifth, just from under 4,000 people at the start of fiscal year 2026 to 3,200 today. Fourth, the foundations continue to be strong. Net debt of GBP 57.3 million, which is 0.7 times our EBITDA. We will maintain the interim dividend at GBP 0.0475. Fifth, Mach49. The arbitration hearing is now completed, and a ruling is expected within this financial year.
We've maintained the liability on our balance sheet, and our position remains unchanged here. We maintain our stance regarding the non-payment of the remaining earn-out. We have counterclaimed for previously paid earn-out amounts. We are confident in our case, and we await the ruling from the panel. Finally, perhaps most importantly, six, our group is now a higher quality one than it was 12 months ago, focused on data, technology, and AI businesses in structurally growing markets, with the public sector now our fastest growing and third largest client vertical. If we dig into the numbers, we continue to see that strong performance in our Track 1 businesses. Our Digital Transformation category, which consists of our exceptional consultancy Transform, grew just under 27%. Transform expanded further across government, including big new contracts with the Department for Education and Defra.
Retail Media continues to grow 2.1% with our U.S. investments stepping up further in the second half. M Booth continued to grow and M Booth Health, the dual business of ours operating in a highly lucrative U.S. healthcare market, grew strongly. Savanta's turnaround continues to be on track. The one more difficult spot was within Pretzl, where we merged four B2B businesses together into one. When executing that, we found the market to be tougher than we planned, but Transform's performance has offset that, showing the strength of our portfolio. We have also had early decisive action, including a change of leadership in that business, which means that we have now stabilized the revenue, and we expect to see better comparables in that business moving forward. The strength of the portfolio in Track 1 shining through.
On execution, I mentioned our headcount is down a further 5%, and that means that our operating margin is up 70 basis points to 14.9%. A very healthy margin. Importantly, within Track 2, this is the group of businesses that was declining double digits last year. We have moderated that decline to just 4.3%. Within that, Marker returned to growth. On the market, we are seeing client confidence is still difficult, but it is better than it was just a year ago. Our new business momentum is good. We are seeing discretionary technology spend still remaining constrained, but we are planning for that to continue into the near term too. With that, let me hand over to Mickey to take you through the numbers in detail, and then I will come back to talk through the strategy.
Okay, great. Thanks, Sam, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for coming. Let me start with the P&L, the adjusted P&L. Like-for-like revenue was broadly in line with expectations, with Track 1 like-for-like revenue up 1.8%, and that was due to strong growth in Transform and in M Booth Health, which was partially offset by a decline in the marketing segment. Our operating profit margin increased, and that was a result of simplification and our continued focus on managing the cost base. PBT was at GBP 30.2 million, and that is in line with the revenue movement. Our diluted EPS declined by 3.3%, and that was due to an increase in diluted shares and the operational gearing impact of lower revenue. We have maintained our dividend at GBP 4.75 pence per share, and that reflects our confidence in the underlying business and its outlook.
If we look at our operating segments, which we started from this year, we created at the start of this year, there are five segments. Starting with Retail Media. Retail Media is up 2.1% in the half year. This segment is largely SMG, which has grown in both revenue and profit in tandem with continuing to invest in the U.S. market. Costs are under tight control, and that has led to an increase to operating margin to 20%. We also introduced a new business into this segment this half year. It is called Digital Commerce. This is a division of Elvis, which we have retained, and this is being reclassified from the creative segment to the Retail Media segment. Data and Research is down 11.5% in revenue. That revenue decline in Savanta is as a result of building higher margin digital products for launch this year.
They are on track to be launched towards the end of the year. Our underlying core research business is performing well, it is also stabilizing after a period of decline, a long period of decline. This year we have seen consistent quarter-on-quarter growth in that business. That has led to a marginal improvement in operating margin to 12.9% in 12.1 last year. The standout performer of the group is Digital Transformation, which is our Transform public sector business. That has grown 26.8% year-on-year. We are seeing strong growth across all of the clients there, most notably UKHSA and also new contract wins with Defra and with DfE. Marketing Comms, which is our largest segment, is down 4.7%. It makes up 53% of total revenue, produced GBP 24 million of profit at a very stable and good margin of 21.1%.
M Booth Health was the fastest growing business in that group, and it has got good momentum going into the end of this year and into next year. Sam mentioned the growth in this segment that I have just referred to was offset by challenges that we saw in Pretzl in the first half of the year. The changes in leadership and the restructure are now bearing fruit, and we can see a much steadier business in Pretzl in the second half of the year. Creative Services was down 14.6%. We all know that the creative marketing sector has been impacted by all sorts of forces. We saw that in Elvis's revenues, which, as you now know, has been divested. Head Office costs are at GBP 8.2 million. They were at GBP 7.5 million last year. The increase is driven by new non-cash incentives.
Looking at the three tracks that we have classified for this year. Track 1 is our core growth portfolio that comprises our data technology and AI-enabled businesses, which are all operating in growth markets. We are concentrating our investment around this area. Track 1 delivered revenues of GBP 143 million, like-for-like growth of 1.8%, and adjusted operating profits up 3.5% to GBP 26.3 million. That is largely or all driven by revenue growth from Transform of 26.8%. Track 2 is our managed portfolio, and that consists of established businesses which are effectively in mature markets. We are managing those largely for the margin and the cash generation that they bring, and they delivered a very, very healthy 21.5% margin this year.
Track 3 are our divestments, and in this one we include Elvis, which was divested right at the end of H1, resulting in a net loss on disposal of GBP 1.1 million. This is the revenue bridge, which just looks at the comparison between H1 2027 and H1 2026. Taking you through it very swiftly, over GBP 11.5 million of impact through the divestments. Taking those out, like-for-like revenue was down GBP 2.9 million or 1.3%. Track 1 is up by GBP 2.6 million. That is driven by Transform and M Booth Health. Track 2 was down by GBP 3.1 million, or 4.3%, partially offset by the growth in Marker. Track 3 was down GBP 2.4 million, which reflects the decline in Elvis revenue ahead of its divestment. There was also weaker US dollar, which had a 2% impact on the comparison. Same comparison again for operating profit.
Comparing H1 2027 versus H1 2026, adjusted operating margin was up 70 basis points to 14.9%, reflecting disciplined cost management and the benefits of restructuring actions that we have taken. Major movements for staff costs, which were down GBP 4.7 million, were driven by the full year benefit of FY 2026 restructuring actions. Headcount at 3,200 at the end of the period compares to 3,350 at the beginning of the period, which is a reduction of 5%. There have been ongoing productivity improvements, largely a result of the application of AI. Other non-staff cost savings of GBP 400,000 include property related and IT cost savings. If we look at our customer segmentation now, that shows a shift towards faster growing sectors. Public sector is our fastest growing client sector, which was up 29% to GBP 40.1 million, and it is now our third largest segment with 18% revenue.
Healthcare was up 20% to GBP 15.2 million, and that is 7.1% of revenue, driven by M Booth Health. Consumer and retail remains our largest sector with 30% of revenue, and that was down GBP 5.4 million. Technology was down 9% to 27% of revenue, which really reflects continued lower marketing spend by our technology clients. Professional and financial services is down 5%, which was a result of lower spend from our financial services clients, which are primarily sitting within Savanta. There is a table in here as well that is worth looking at, which shows that Retail Media and Digital Transformation operating segments are concentrated in a small number of customer sectors. So 79% of our Retail Media clients are consumer. 90% of our Digital Transformation clients are public sector, and 43% of our marketing segment clients are technology.
If I look at the cash flow, I will talk about the major movements. First off, net debt increased in the half year from GBP 36 million to GBP 57 million. The major movements here are net inflows from trading of GBP 22.7 million, offset by a working capital outflow of GBP 21.2 million, which was principally timing related, principally driven by the following: a buildup of trade debtors in the period, which is typical of the period, and that was a GBP 12 million increase in trade debtors. We paid annual bonuses in the first half of the year in April, about GBP 5 million. We also saw changes in supplier payment timing, principally affecting our government contracts, and we also paid advisor fees relating to the ongoing Mach49 arbitration process. We do expect to see a significant improvement in working capital in the second half of the year. Looking at our leverage now.
Our net debt adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.7 times is well within the 2.5 times covenant. We are quite comfortable, quite pleased with that ratio. Net debt, as I said, increased to GBP 57.3 million, reflecting earn-out payments of GBP 6.2 million, tax of GBP 4 million and capital expenditure of GBP 5.3 million. If we were to include the full Mach49 earn-out provision we have in the balance sheet, that would take our net debt adjusted EBITDA ratio to about 1.6 times at the end of H1 2027, which again, is well within the expected or allowed covenant levels. Looking at EPS dilution and dividend, our diluted earnings per share of 20.7 pence is down 3.3%. The dilution is due to the dilutive impact of shares potentially issuable to senior leadership in both group and subsidiaries. So those are LTIPs, growth shares, and earn-outs.
Our interim dividend has been maintained at 4.75 pence a share, and that is covered by 4.4 times diluted adjusted EPS, and that is underpinned by our healthy balance sheet and our low leverage ratio. We go ex-dividend on October 15. We will be paying it on November 20. Last slide from me, which is our estimated earn-out commitments. The majority of our earn-out commitments are now settled. The remaining earn-outs total less than GBP 8 million if we exclude Mach49, and those are payable through FY 2028 with no commitments beyond that date. And of that FY 2027, GBP 4.3 million, most of it has now been paid.
The GBP 67.7 million earn-out commitment for Mach49 remains on the balance sheet, and the majority of our remaining earn-outs are expected to be cash settled, with only GBP 1.4 million of the GBP 7.9 million to be settled in shares. Thanks, Mickey. I am going to cover now the strategy and the outlook, what we are building, give you some idea of the type of work that we are doing, and what comes next. If you remember back in the beginning of this year, we had a capital markets day when we talked about our new vision, and that vision has not changed. Data-powered growth fit for an AI future. Next 15 is now a group of specialist businesses, which is Unified but Not Uniform. They are in data and technology and run by entrepreneurial people. And the medium-term ambitions remain revenue and operating profit, both 1.5 times over the medium term.
We are targeting ourselves to generate 40% of revenue from new sources of growth. Our strategy remains the same, and we are starting to see the early evidence of this working. We talked about the flywheel of data, proprietary data, or access to proprietary data, technology that underpins it, enabling us to activate measurable outcomes for our clients. And we are seeing this throughout the group. Give you some examples. The work that Transform have been doing with Defra is outstanding. In just six weeks in an AI lab, Transform built an AI funding finder with Defra. Farmers describe their land in plain English and are matched to the right funding schemes, with grant compatibility checked automatically. Defra's own analysis shows that with 20,000 farmers self-serving, it would save nearly GBP 1 million, the carbon equivalent of 1,300 short-haul flights. Outstanding work which Defra are highlighting themselves in case studies.
Pretzl fused in-store competitive and intent data with Atlassian's marketing on 6,000 highest potential accounts from a pool of around 12,000. And the early pilot is running 16% ahead of target. Savanta used eye-tracking research through their Explorer business during real shopping trips to show a leading international grocer where in-store screens commanded attention and what content drives shopper action. The evidence base for a rollout across its banners and stronger Retail Media proposition, tying in with the work that SMG do too. And SMG's RMX platform just launched this year. Really exciting product, which connects fragmented Retail Media networks into one planning, buying, and measurement group for agencies. Five launch partners include Co-op and Morrisons, around 5,000 screens. A major agency holding company signed as a beta partner, a controlled beta launching in December.
Very exciting product, going to be a big growth driver for SMG into the future. That flywheel is showing in our new business pipeline too. We have a bigger new business pipeline than at any point during the last two years, including Defra, Atlassian, Department for Education, Google for Education. As an example, Transform's new bookings in H1 are GBP 159 million versus just GBP 19 million in the same period last year. We continue to invest our capital in our Track 1 businesses. These are the businesses that we believe have those capabilities to operate successfully in an AI world within structurally growing categories. These businesses are growing at 1.8% with an improved margin fueled by that investment. Within Track 2, we've also been doing a lot of work to improve and stabilize their performance.
As I said earlier, moderated that decline and seeing good growth coming back from Marker, which bounced back from a double-digit decline over previous years. So a more stable and robust group. We're also making progress on developing our operating model. This is one area which we changed fundamentally from a very federated model into one which is Unified but Not Uniform. We've created a Track 1 operating board, where the Track 1 CEOs meet regularly and remove the silos together, and we've already seen huge progress with that. Transform and Savanta has jointly pitched for new business. We're building a shared data proposition across Savanta, SMG, and Transform. Our largest technology clients are increasingly served by more than one of our brands. We've also completed the work on changing our incentives, which has now been aligned so that collaboration benefits our leaders too.
This model is settling in, and we're finding pockets of value across all of our businesses. So what are our priorities for the next six months? Well, they simply fall into three buckets. First is resolve, resolving the Mach49 arbitration. Secondly is simplification, progressing the portfolio actions and embedding the operating model. Thirdly is growing, continuing to invest in Track 1, scaling AI across the group, and sustaining positive momentum into the second half. Trading since the period end has remained encouraging. June, July, August, and September were consecutive months of like-for-like growth. First time we've seen that for years in this group. The new business pipeline is stronger than we've seen in the past year too. The drivers of the first half, especially Digital Transformation, continue.
We know that it's a tough environment out there, and discretionary spend remains constrained, so we have to stay disciplined on costs, and you can see that in the actions that we're taking too. On that basis, we expect to deliver in line with market expectations with revenue growth over the course of the year, and we're maintaining the interim dividend, GBP 4.75. So in summary, a simpler, higher quality group than when we sat in this room just 12 months ago. 22 businesses down to 10. Cost base reset. Our capital being invested behind businesses that are in structurally growing markets enabled by data and technology. Early evidence that that strategy is delivering Track 1 growing, margins up, brands winning together, consecutive months of growth for the first time in three years.
We do still have a significant legacy issue, but one that is moving to resolution, with a balance sheet that is resilient across the range of outcomes. Momentum into the second half, with the board expecting full like-for-like growth in line with market expectations. 18 months ago, we had a story that was very complex, 22 businesses. Today, we have 10, one clear model, and we are starting to see numbers to prove the strategy is working. We know there is still a long way to go. We know that more evidence needs to be shown, but we know there will be more evidence in the next six months to show our strategy in action as we continue to unlock the core value of what is an exceptional group of category defining businesses. Thank you for your time, and Mickey and I are very happy to take your questions.
You have got your hand up first.
Al Sri from Investec. A couple for me. Just on SMG first. How confident do you remain in the U.S. expansion, meaningful wins coming through the medium term, and in terms of the impact of the macro pressure on retailers on that business and how it is doing. Secondly, you touched on collaborations, Unified but Not Uniform. Too early to see any metrics for the number of clients with doing some cross sell. Lastly, any more color on progress with the Track 2 assets in terms of potential sales.
Sure. Okay. Taking each one in turn. SMG's expansion into the U.S. is really, really important to us. In fact, I was there yesterday. We are working very hard to get the traction that we need. In answer to your question, yes, I remain confident. From what I see on the ground, from the conversations that I am having, from the involvement in RFPs, although we cannot talk about any evidence specifically today, I remain confident that that U.S. expansion is on track and is the right thing to do. The size of the prize there is huge. The market is six times that of the U.K. We have a strong reputation in the U.K., and we are in discussions with some of the largest retailers there.
It may be taking a little bit of time, but it's the right thing for the business, and we continue to invest in it. On metrics for Unified but Not Uniform, I mentioned a couple of them today. Less numbers, but I hope that when we get to the year end, we will start reporting on that. We are building the numbers in terms of how we measure which clients are moving across more than one of our business. We are starting to see that improve today from what we have seen. Your final question, sorry?
Track 2 assets.
Oh, Track 2 assets. Do you want to take this one?
Sure. They are progressing well. We have not announced anything today, but we are working very hard on several different assets. Progress is being made, and we would hope, quite soon we could make an announcement or two around those.
Jessica. Three from me, please. Obviously, you've had some very big contract wins in Transform. Can you just talk a little bit about the pipeline going into the next 12-18 months? You know, the heads down focus on delivering now or actually there's potential for incremental clients, significant clients from here.
Second one just on Retail Media. The landscape's changing very rapidly. We're talking about AI agents now and brands seem to be thinking very hard about where they spend and how they allocate. Are the changes in the landscape opportunity for SMG, or do they bring challenges because maybe they're going direct to the LLMs? The final one is just on data research. You talked about some larger products over the next couple of, in the near term, and some of the customized research is okay. What isn't working in terms of research and where are the challenges there?
Yeah. Sure. Okay. Starting with Transform, it's both. It's head down to deliver the big contract wins that they've got. You can see already from the new business pipeline I talked around, GBP 159 million in that new business pipe, that we see a great path to new business wins over the course of the next year, and we hope to announce even more over the course of the next 12 months. On Retail Media, I see it as both a challenge and an opportunity, as I'm sure you do, too. That's why we're launching products like RMX. Increasingly, we're seeing brands utilizing agents to buy in scale across multiple retailers. RMX is actually the solution for that. It creates a one buying point for five different retailers across the U.K. and 5,000 screens that can be bought agentically online and offline.
We're seeing a lot of interest coming from both the retailers and the brands in that product, and a lot of opportunity to grow that, both here in the U.K., but also internationally as well, because that's obviously a very scalable product. Finally, data and research. I see this as two sides of the same business. You've got the traditional market research, so the type of research that I would have done when I was at P&G, when we launched a new razor, where you'd get a bunch of us together in a room and talk about whether we wanted four blades or five blades, and get the feedback from that. That type of research, which is quite intensive in terms of human input, is declining and declining in double digits year-on-year. Because the type of marketing that brands are doing is changing.
It's going from that long-term into more shorter term, almost weekly changes to creative. Savanta's business historically has been quite strong in that area, and we're seeing that decline. Where we're seeing the growth is coming from new products. So things like Virtual Personas and BrandVue, where you can look in flight at the impact of campaigns and test them quickly within days and hours rather than weeks. As we see the revenue start to grow from that side of the product, from the data which we're investing in, the data and product side that we're investing in, we'll see a leveling out of the revenue at a higher quality margin because these are subscription-based SaaS revenue products. But obviously that will take a little bit of time. But we see we're on track with that business.
I just have a follow-up on the Savanta. Sorry, on the SMG question. RMX, am I right, you previously said that solution might be rolled into what you're offering now rather than having it as a subscription base?
It's part of Plan-Apps, which is the product that SMG have owned. But it's a different entry point. Whereas up to now you've had brands being able to buy through Plan-Apps and retailers being able to sell products, what RMX does is allow agencies to access that too. So they can buy on behalf of the brands and the retailers, which unlocks another investment pool that wasn't available before.
Just, yeah, SMG again, sorry. Going back to the U.S., obviously you're targeting pitches. If my memory is right, you have one contract that you won.
Yep.
No more. Why is there delay in winning stuff? It cannot just be the RFPs are just extending, you must be losing stuff. Why is that? Can you give us comfort that you can win stuff in the U.S.? That is the first question. Second question, would it be fair to say that that market, having been super hot, is less hot now overall? Does that imply more pressure on the kind of core business, in terms of retail margins and stuff like that? That is the kind of second question. Then just jumping into the debt and working capital, you said you could improve your working capital in the second half. If we start off with the GBP 21 million outflow in the first half, what do you think is a good outcome in terms of, let us say, outflow in the full year?
Hopefully, well, you must not have an inflow, but what is a good outcome?
Okay. I will take the first two and then the third one, Mickey.
Yeah, sure.
You mentioned we have won our first client, that is WHSmith.
Yeah.
That is going very well. They have grown their revenue 80% year-on-year, and it is a really strong case study. These are very different types of contracts. Having run the business for a number of years, I can tell you that they do not happen overnight. These are big structural changes that retailers make, often with teams of up to 100 people moving into their offices. It is not something like other agencies where they come quickly. Are they coming as quickly as we would like? Probably not quite. It is not easy expanding a business out across to the U.S. We are doing it sensibly. We are not blowing the bank over it. We are happy with the progress that we are seeing. It is absolutely the right strategic move to do that, and I am working very closely with the team still to make that happen.
I hope to have news on that very soon.
Is the pushback that no one knows you? Do you have, going back to what you said earlier on, do you have some profile there?
Yeah, we have a good profile.
It's not because no one's heard of you.
No, it was that 12 months ago. I think where we are now with that case study and with the presence that we have in the market, there's some credibility in SMG. RFPs take time, and especially ones of this ilk. They don't happen overnight. From what I see from the team, we are getting into the later stages of these RFPs, and we're seeing some strong progress. Like I say, we're confident in the ability for us to win these things in the future. You also asked, Steve, whether Retail Media as a whole is less hot than it was. I think the answer to that is no. I think that brands are still continuing to invest in different types of Retail Media.
I think what's happening is Retail Media as a whole is becoming more like just media in general, in that at its core, Retail Media is good data that is available to target that makes media more efficient and measurable in the end. That's driving the core of what we're doing in all of media at the moment. No, I don't think it's any less hot. I also think we're seeing some bigger growth in other markets as well now as it starts to catch up. I'll hand over to Micky to talk.
Sure.
Then working capital.
Question on working capital. We had a GBP 21 million outflow in the first half of the year. We will be in a much better position at the end of the year, we estimate somewhere between GBP 5 million and GBP 10 million outflow. If we can get to zero, great, but we should be able to get between GBP 5 million and GBP 10 million. The reason for that is just the timing of flows. At the end of last year, the end of this year, things are very different. A large part of the GBP 21 million is due to Retail Media. I think you all know just how aggressive retailers are. That tends to unwind during the course of the year, and we will redouble our efforts on collection just as we did last year. So I think GBP 5 million, GBP 10 million is readily achievable.
Thank you. Hayley Palmer from Canaccord. So two questions from me, please. Firstly, on SMG, just on the back of today's announcement that Boots is being sold to Weston. I appreciate it is still very new news, so it might be a bit too early to have a strong view there, but it sounds like they want to modernize a lot of the Boots estate, both online and in-store. Obviously, SMG has been very instrumental in strengthening Boots' ad revenues in the past. So I was wondering what your view is and what this deal could mean for SMG. I think Weston holds other pharmacy estates in Canada, and I was wondering whether you have an idea of what their Retail Media strategy is and whether it could actually be an opportunity for you to go into Canada or North America that way.
Second was just an update on Pretzl, if you could give us an idea of what was not working there. I just imagine those four businesses, was it just teething problems? Any progress on the launch of JourneyLab there.
Thanks, Hayley. I think it's probably too early for me to make comment on the news that came out yesterday with Boots. You step back and if you ask my opinion on it, I see it as an opportunity. It gives us a path to work with somebody across multiple markets. The job that SMG has done at Boots has been phenomenal, continues to grow, the revenue continues to grow. It's still a very important part of the P&L, and the relationship there is really strong. On Pretzl, I think it was a combination of market pressures, in terms of a switch from traditional creative, which was part of the Pretzl offering, into more AI-led creative, which drove a revenue decline and disruption as well. When you bring four businesses together into one, that creates operational issues that we needed to fix.
I think we've done a good job of being quite decisive in making those fixes. We've seen the revenue stabilize now. We've got a good leadership team in place, and we're investing behind the operational AI capabilities of that business that allow us to grow it into the future. I feel confident in Pretzl's future. A big part of that is JourneyLab, which is part of what I talked about with Atlassian today and is going to be central to the model moving forward. We're already working on that with that product, with our clients today, and it's being rolled out across the group.
If I can. Firstly, on the SMG, are you seeing any sign of any sort of fee compression, either from contributions from retailers or from brands? Second, I've probably got two pieces on working capital again. Talking about supplier payment term changes, particularly on the government contracts, which I presume is mostly Transform. I think I'm right in thinking you've had some pretty advantageous terms relative to sort of normal commercial terms on those before. Do you think those are sort of now in a stable place or is there potential for change in the future? I guess the key part of that is this a one-off outflow or should we be expecting an outflow of this sort of size H1 of future years? Just third on working capital, you put the advisor fees for the Mach49 arbitration in there.
Might just be because I'm relatively new to the stock, but is that payment of a provision already accrued or something which you capitalized and put onto the balance sheet as an asset as well?
I will answer that immediately. It has already been accrued.
First question on fee compression for SMG. I think as markets mature, the answer is yes, we do see fee compression. The U.K. is becoming a more mature market. SMG is the leader in that market, 40% market share, and has been with a lot of the retailers that it serves for over four to five years. So obviously, over time, those contracts are pressured. As you have seen, our margins have actually gone up on that and that is because we are actually working on delivering the work in a better way, through product and technology, through automation and through AI. So obviously, that fee compression happens. It is our job to make sure that we are more efficient in how we deliver. Do you want to talk
Sure
the other working capital question?
You asked a question about government contracts and suppliers. Government insists that we, us and all of our peers, have to pay our suppliers under far stricter, far quicker terms. That is not a one-off. That is a permanent thing. That is what we are doing. That is accounted for some of the creditor difference that you have noticed.
That will continue. It will flow through. What you see right now, as far as that point is concerned about payment terms, government creditors, you will not see that again in future years.
I have just a couple left from me. I guess, firstly, in consensus, you have roughly 2% like-for-like growth for the full year, and obviously you delivered, -1.3% in the first half. It implies an acceleration and growth into the second half. Can you just provide a little bit of numbers around the growth in from the 4-month period, from June to now? Maybe to just give some confidence in that number. Then also, just more detail around the pipeline to that. Secondly, I am just curious to know, with things like Pretzl underperforming expectations and Savanta, I guess we have already talked about Savanta, but Marker obviously is outperforming expectations. Is there a case for moving things around from different tracks? Is that
Take the first one.
Yeah, sure.
We are very confident in the second half year performance, and that will lift the whole year to a year of growth. What we have seen from June to August, and now June to September, so 4 months, is on average 2% year-on-year growth. What we have seen in September is 5% year-on-year growth. So we are confident in our forecasts, and as those come through, that will result in close to 2% like-for-like full year growth. The picture that we are seeing over the last 4 months indicates that we are on track. On the track question, the way that we looked at our businesses wasn't in terms of short-term performance, it was in terms of mid to long-term capability in the markets that we wanted to be in. So we looked at what we called the three Cs.
Do they have the capabilities in terms of data, technology and activation? Are they in categories that we see having structural growth? Do they have a strong commercial pipeline? We have hit those Track 1 businesses knowing that we needed to do a turnaround in Savanta and knowing that we needed to do a turnaround in Pretzl as well. You look at within that Track 1, you have got Transform in good growth, you have got M Booth in good growth, M Booth Health growing strongly, Retail Media in good growth. So we knew that there was a balance in that portfolio. We are constantly in review of the Track 2 businesses, and we are really pleased with the Marker performance in the first 6 months of this year.
Like we said at the beginning of this year, by the end of this financial year, we hope to have clarity on whether any of those Track 2 businesses will move into Track 1 or not. Any other questions?
Any questions from webcast?
Thank you for your time, and we'll close it out there. If you have any more questions, happy to take them offline. Thank you.