Hello, everyone, and welcome to today's AkzoNobel Q4 and full year results call. My name is Seb, and I'll be the operator for your call today. If you'd like to ask a question at the Q&A session, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue, please press star two. I will now hand you over to Jan-Willem Enhus, Head of Investor Relations, to begin the call. Please go ahead when you're ready.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to AkzoNobel's investor update for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. I'm Jan-Willem Enhus, Head of Investor Relations. Today, our CEO, Greg Poux-Guillaume, and CFO, Maarten de Vries, will take you through our results. We'll refer to the presentation, which you can follow by webcast or download from our website at akzonobel.com. A replay of the webcast will also be made available following the event. There will be a Q&A session after the presentation. For additional information, please contact our Investor Relations team. Before we start, a reminder of our forward-looking statements disclaimer on slide 2. Please note, this also applies to the conference call and answers to your questions. I will now hand over to Greg, who will start on slide 3 of the presentation.
Thanks, Jan-Willem. Good morning to everyone on the call. In 2025, we made substantive strides towards a stronger AkzoNobel. In the tepid markets, our progress was rooted in price discipline and the relentless execution of our efficiency programs, resulting in a full-year adjusted EBITDA of EUR 1,444 million. Adjusted for Forex translation and our Indian divestment, this is within 1% of our initial constant currency guidance of 1,550 given at the beginning of the year. Profitability is at 14.2%, which is 40 basis points up versus last year. In Q4, volumes were down 2% year-on-year, with price mix up 1%. Our adjusted EBITDA came in at EUR 309 million, or EUR 343 million, excluding Forex translation and the Indian divestment.
This is 7% higher than last year on a comparable basis and corresponds to a 13% margin, up 70 basis points year-on-year. Operationally, we achieved net OpEx savings of EUR 98 million year to date, EUR 28 million ahead of plan. Free cash flow came in materially higher at EUR 606 million on efficient working capital management, and we reduced leverage to 2x, bringing it in line with our mid-term ambitions. Overall, we delivered a banner year in operational execution alongside two major portfolio moves: a value-crystallizing divestment in India and our proposed merger with Axalta, which will reduce costs, boost innovation, and accelerate growth. Let's now turn to slide 4. Q4 volumes were down 2% year-on-year, with mixed performance between our segments. Overall, Deco volumes were slightly down at -1%.
Europe, Middle East and Africa was flat, with growth in the U.K. and a recovery in Turkey, but continued weakness in France. Looking ahead, we expect 2026 to be stable, with a European recovery further out. Latin America declined mid-single digits, with Argentina doing well, but Brazil impacted by the BASF disposal. As you know, their Suvinil business was for sale, was bought by Sherwin, but there was a moment of lack of leadership of that business, which disrupted the Brazilian market in the middle of the year. But as Sherwin closed the deal and started running the business, this recovered, and Q4 was a good quarter for us.
Growth will resume in 2026 as Brazil returns to normal trading conditions, which Brazil has already returned to normal trading conditions. So, so far, so good. China delivered low single-digit growth, with our business continuing to outperform in a weak market. We expect this to continue in 2026 and for the Chinese market to finally rebound in 2027. Southeast Asia remained mixed, with softer demand in Indonesia, more than offset by growth in Vietnam, where momentum is anticipated to remain solid throughout 2026. Let's turn to Coatings now. In Coatings, volumes declined 3% in Q4, primarily due to market pullback in most of our segments in North America. Powder remained impacted by lower architectural demand, although Asia continued its strong momentum.
Stabilization in North America is expected in the second half of 2026. Marine and Protective delivered a slower quarter with a growth in Yacht, but a lower Marine on tougher comps. Market share and dry docking will underpin volumes in 2026. Market share gains, clearly, in dry docking for 2026. Automotive and Specialty improved sequentially to flat volumes overall. Aerospace outperformed, while Refinish in North America remained at trough. Going forward, low single-digit growth will be driven by a strong aerospace with a very strong order book, and stabilization in Refinish in the second half of 2026. Industrial Coatings was down mid-single digits. Coil and Wood were in line with market.
Our Packaging business faces a temporary pullback due to an industry technology shift and delayed approvals of our product. We are planning to lose market share in 2026 before this because of this, but we will rebound and recover market share in 2027 on new awards. We're convinced we have best-in-class technology, so it's a temporary setback, but we will see a market share erosion in 2026 before rebounding in 2027 in Packaging. On balance, we expect full year volumes to be broadly flat in 2026. After a Q1 with similar conditions to Q4 of last year, we anticipate an improving market trajectory in the second half of the year, particularly in North America. Turning to slide 5.
We closed the sale of AkzoNobel India Limited at an attractive 25x EBITDA multiple, generating approximately EUR 900 million of proceeds, which showcases that our active portfolio management creates exceptional value. We retained full ownership of our powder business in India by buying out the minorities, and also secured a recurring royalty stream from the liquid coatings assets we divested to JSW. We continue our portfolio review in Asia as per our strategy to focus on leadership positions and to monetize assets that are significantly more valuable to other people than us. So there'll be more disposals in 2026 in Asia. All actions under our SG&A efficiency program were completed by mid-2025. We now expect around EUR 200 million of gross cost savings based on the elimination of 2,900 functional positions.
This is EUR 80 million above our initial target, while also delivering a leaner and more focused operating model. Meanwhile, our Industrial Excellence program continues to gather pace. We've closed 12 sites to date in the last 2 years since the start of the program, all without disruption to the business and while improving service levels. All actions under the industrial program are expected to be completed by end of 2026. We've got at least 6 more closures planned in 2026, and we're making good progress on this. In short, our programs are driving a leaner cost base, better return on capital, and a more focused, agile organization. The impact of these programs is detailed on page 6.
Page six, two years into our efficiency journey, I thought it'd be helpful to present an overview of the phasing and the benefits of our two programs, very much like we did last year. Our SG&A program was fully executed in less than a year. We've achieved EUR 145 million in savings to date, with at least EUR 50 million euro carryover in 2026, which will offset annual inflation alongside other productivity measures. In total, the program will deliver EUR 200 million of gross cost savings, EUR 80 million euros above the original plan, as I mentioned, with only EUR 50 million euros higher than originally envisaged cost. So EUR 80 million more value, only EUR 50 million more cost. All of this completed in less than a year, 2,900 positions, a lot of them in Europe.
So, you can see that we executed, and we executed decisively. Our industrial transformation program remains fully on track and will be completed at the end of 2026. The focus remains on footprint optimization, modernization of anchor sites, and supply chain consolidation. We expect a benefit of EUR 90 million in 2026, alongside a slightly higher restructuring cost and corresponding cash outflow. With a hundred and ten million of carryover benefit in 2027, the program is set to deliver total gross savings of EUR 300 million. If you take the two programs together, that's EUR 500 million of cost takeout, demonstrating that our self-help is working and delivering a leaner organization with meaningful operating leverage on any volume recovery. Moving to slide seven.
Slide seven is really a summary, because the benefits of our efficiency programs, they're substantial, but sometimes they're obscured by the significant negative Forex translation of the past three years, which does not impact profitability, but does make the reported numbers harder to read. We've tried in this table to isolate the effects with profitability gains in both Deco and Coatings, and a more efficient use of capital, as highlighted by our working capital improvement. We've made steady progress over the past three years with Adjusted EBITDA up 40% or almost EUR 500 million on a comparable basis to 2022. Our progress has been built on price discipline, a leaner organization with greatly improved service levels. This, in conjunction with product innovation, will allow us to capture more than our share of commercial opportunities, even in softer markets.
The actions already in place will pave our way to achieving our midterm targets and more. I'll now hand over to Maarten to discuss our Q4 performance on slide eight. Maarten?
Yeah, thanks, Greg, and good morning, everybody. At the group level, organic sales declined by 1%, with volumes down 2% and a positive price mix effect of 1%. The divestment of India had a - 1% impact on revenue for both Deco and Coatings. FX translation further reduced revenue by 6%, resulting in a reported revenue decline of 9%. In Deco, volumes decreased by 1%, primarily driven by LATAM. While positive pricing in EMEA and LATAM was offset by a negative mix, organic sales for Deco were down by 1%. In Coatings, volumes were down 3%, reflecting ongoing weakness in North America. Group Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 309 million, or EUR 343 million at constant currencies and adjusted for the India divestment.
The EBITDA margin improved back to 13%, up 70 basis points compared to prior year. This improvement was due to margin expansion of 240 basis points in Deco, supported by structural cost savings. Improvements in coatings profitability continued to be muted by negative mix, particularly from weaker North America. We delivered another strong quarter of free cash flow, totaling EUR 362 million. For the full year, free cash flow reached EUR 606 million, primarily driven by significant improvements in our working capital position. At year-end, trade working capital was 14.7%, a full percentage point below the previous year, and within the target range. Importantly, we achieved this while driving our industrial transformation, which requires inventory buildup to support volume redistribution. Return on investment also improved to 13.5%, up from 13.3% last year.
And finally, strong cash flow generation, together with the proceeds from the India divestment, enabled us to reduce net debt to below EUR 3 billion and our leverage ratio to 2x, in line with our plan. Turning now to our 2026 outlook. Looking ahead, based on current market visibility, we don't anticipate a material recovery across our end markets in 2026. A weak first half is expected, with the second half helped by easier comparisons. We will remain firmly focused on the implementation of our self-help programs and maintaining strict cost discipline. In 2026, we aim to increase our full year adjusted EBITDA by at least EUR 100 million on a comparable basis, driven by cost rather than volume. Any volume recovery will be a plus.
On a reported basis, including a EUR 40 million scope adjustment for the India divestment and an expected further EUR 35 million of FX translation impact, this should translate into a reported adjusted EBITDA at or above EUR 1.47 billion. The EUR 100 million step-up is driven by what we control, with the industrial program contributing EUR 90 million of savings. Carryover of the SG&A program will offset inflation combined with productivity, as outlined in the overview table on slide 6. This provides a solid earnings baseline, with any improvement in market conditions translating into potential upside. The first quarter is expected to look a lot like the fourth quarter. Soft volume trends continuing, some efficiency uplift, and a negative FX impact of around EUR 30 million. With that, back to Greg for the wrap up.
Thank you. Moving to slide 11. On November 18, together with Axalta, we announced a transformative step for both companies, a merger of equals, to shape the future of our industry. This compelling combination builds a more resilient coatings leader with enhanced margins and superior cash generation. We see at least $600 million of cost synergies, and we have the experienced leadership team to execute them with discipline and convert them into sustainable margin with the robust cash flow. On top of this, we expect revenue synergies to boost growth by 100-200 basis points. We'll share more details on this in the coming months ahead of the shareholder vote. By joining forces, we'll not only generate significant synergies, but we'll also create a company that will bring the best of both worlds to our customers, shareholders, and employees.
Closing is expected late in 2026 or early in 2027. Preparation for the proposed merger are ongoing, but will not deter or distract us from our core execution agenda as we deliver against our 2026 outlook. I'll now hand over to Jan-Willem Enhus to close with information about upcoming events, and then we'll start the Q&A. Jan-Willem Enhus?
Thank you, Greg. Before we start the Q&A session, I would like to draw your attention to the upcoming events shown on slide 12. We will publish our annual report on February 24. This concludes the formal presentation, and we'll be happy to address your questions. Please state your name and company when asking a question, and limit the number of questions to two per person so others can participate. Operator, please start the Q&A session.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our first one is from Thomas Wrigglesworth from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the presentation, Greg, and Maarten. Two questions, if I may. First question, on the EUR 100 million EBITDA constant currency growth, could you just help us understand the drivers of that? You've obviously talked to flat volumes, but I assume positive mix. There should be a net pricing benefit in there, and then there's also cost savings. So just trying to figure out, you know, the moving parts, because noting that, you know, the net pricing environment's relatively positive. That's my first question. Second question, if I may, you touched on the deal there with Axalta. Any further updates on timelines or synergy plans? Have you guys been able to at least better understand the potential of the merger since the initial announcement?
Thank you, Thomas. I'll start with the Axalta question. The focus right now is to hit the ground running in terms of the critical path, and the critical path of any merger, like the one that we're planning with Axalta, is the regulatory approvals. We've made really good progress. We're working well together. By the end of next week, you know, the main regulatory filings are in Europe and in the U.S., and the one that's the most time-consuming is Europe. A very, very heavy detailed document upfront and a process that's a bit longer. So, we wanted to make sure that we got it out very quickly, and by the end of next week, we'll have completed all the main filings, including Europe.
So, we're tracking well from that perspective, and in parallel, we're doing work on detailing the synergy plans and also substantiating the revenue synergies that we wanna talk about ahead of the shareholder vote. So all going well, nothing to report beyond the fact that we're hitting our milestones and making good progress, with still the aim to close by the end of 2026. And in terms of the EUR 100 million step-up on a comparable basis in EBITDA, it's essentially based on self-help. It's mostly driven by costs. We're not assuming the volume growth, we're assuming volumes to be flat. It's a crap shoot on volumes, you know, there's a lot of macro uncertainty.
We saw some of the reactions this morning from some of you guys that felt this might be a little bit conservative, but there's really not a whole lot to gain by getting ahead of ourselves on volumes at this point. And then I think that your main question is the pricing question, but it's really the margin expansion question. Prices were up for us 1% in 2025. We plan to be priced up again in 2026, but the more important question is how the margin expansion works out, because it's essentially price minus raws. And if you look at our plan in 2025, we were planning for more pricing, but also higher raws.
The raws ended up being lower, which made some of the pricing gains more difficult to achieve. So it's really a question of how the market will unfold in 2026. Right now, it's looking like raws in the first half of the year will be favorable, and in the second half of the year, prices will pick up, and they'll become a little bit unfavorable. The pricing discussions are ongoing, and it's about striking that balance with our customers. But we'll be priced up in 2026, and we'll expand margins in 2026. Does that answer your question, Thomas?
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Yeah, that's good.
Thank you. Our next question is from Laurent Favre at BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Oh, thank you. Good morning, two questions, please. The first one, I'm sorry, it's a boring one, but you just mentioned Q1 would be similar to Q4. I just wanted to clarify that. I guess what you meant was on the, year-on-year organic development. And then the second one may be a little bit more interesting. You mentioned that there would be more disposals in Asia Deco, for the year. I'm just wondering, are you thinking about specific areas where, I guess you, like in India, don't have, leadership? Or are you also considering, countries where you do have leadership and, and are you also considering, I guess, big countries like China, where I think the market is a lot more skeptical?
Maarten will take the Q1 question. I'll take the Asia question. We're considering more... We're working, I mean, not considering, we're working on more disposals in Deco Asia. It's the starting point is always whether we feel that we've got a winning hand over time or whether our business might be more valuable to somebody else. We're not considering exiting China and Deco. It's a good business. It's a business in which the market was really down the last two years, and everybody suffered, and we're on our way to a recovery. We had a good year in 2025, despite the fact that the market was still going down mid-single digits.
In 2026, the market will still be going slightly down in China and Deco, but we are planning to continue on our current momentum, and we see a market recovery in 2027. So, we're, you know, we're working on improving our business in China and getting ahead of the wave and fully capitalizing on that market recovery. That's our priority for the next few years. Everything else in Deco Asia, we're assessing because once we announced that we were selling India and we closed that, you can imagine that that generated inbounds. And we have views as to what the right moves are.
We're working on some of them, but we don't plan to let the merger with Axalta slow down our momentum on this. We'll execute these moves at the timing whenever they make sense. That's what I'm trying to say. Maarten, you want to take the Q1 question?
Yeah, your question on Q1. So Q1 sequentially versus Q4 is very much similar. You ask about the organic volume trends, similar to Q4. And then the only thing which will differ in Q1 is that there will be additional efficiency gains from the Industrial Excellence program. And what I mentioned earlier is that the FX translation impact for Q1 will be again at EUR 30 million if you compare that to last year, Q1. So similar to Q4 with a bit of additional efficiency gains.
Noel, anything else?
No, that's it. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question is from Christian Faitz at Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my 2 questions. First, back to China Deco. How long do you see this negative price mix to continue? Will it improve during 2026? And then second question, can you elucidate a bit the situation in Automotive Refinish? Is this business still hampered by people not having their cars repaired because they fear increasing insurance premiums? Thanks.
Yeah. Yes, so, China Deco. China Deco, the driver of the market downturn the last couple of years was the collapse of the real estate market in China. You know, the property developers that went belly up. The construction really, really dropped significantly in China. That impacted the project side of the business a lot more than the retail side of the business, 'cause the retail side of the business is driven by renovation, even in China. But, although AkzoNobel had a small presence in projects and is actually the number two player in retail, we had the knock-on effect of some of our competitors shifting their volumes to, shifting their capacity to try to gain volume on the retail side.
So essentially, that created a little bit of a price war driven by Nippon Paint in on the retail side, and and took the profitability of the market down overall. The That, that volume trajectory still hasn't recovered. That's what I was trying to explain. Hasn't recovered for the market. The market was down, I think I said mid-single digits in in in 2025, but I think it was a little bit higher than that. It might have been even closer to high single digits. It's gonna be down again, mid-single digits in 2026.
What's interesting about Akzo is that we've been recovering, and we've been rebounding from a profit perspective by essentially capitalizing on our position in premium, where we've been doing well, and we've been actually doing a lot better than the market. So what you're calling a price mix, it's our recovery is being driven by premium. It's still a really competitive market. The price erosion has stopped, and I believe that in a market where there's been a lot of price giveback, there are very good reasons for essentially the players in the market to have price discipline going forward. But it's not a market recovery yet.
That market recovery is really anticipated for 2027 based on projections of how the real estate, essentially development is, is unfolding in, in the coming months. So, China Deco, good for us, not good overall as a market. We expect it to be good for us again in 2026. But, once again, it's due to our very specific positioning and our ability to win in premium. Vehicle Refinish, Maarten?
Yeah, Vehicle Refinish, what we've seen is a continuing of the trend, which we've seen in terms of the insurance, the higher insurance premium and lower kind of softness in Vehicle Refinish in North America and in EMEA. While by the way, we see growth in Asia. That trend will for sure continue in Q1 and Q2, and is expected to improve in the second half of 2026.
Christian, did we answer your question?
Okay. Thanks very much, Maarten.
Thank you.
Yes, absolutely. Thanks very much.
The next question is from Matthew Yates at Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, gentlemen. I've got a couple they're probably for Maarten. First, can you just explain the corporate line in Q4 looked a bit lower than normal, let's say. And then I just had a question around the cash flow and where you are on working capital now. Obviously, the metrics have improved. Just conscious, is that driven by volumes, or is that price deflation coming through? I'm trying to understand where your physical stocks are sitting relative to what you need, given that your order book still seems to be going backwards at the moment. And maybe just for Greg, just to come back on the pricing. I'm not entirely sure I understood the answer there-...
Do you think net pricing is definitely going to be positive in the first half, and then the second half remains to be seen, given whatever in inflation we may or may not get in the raw material basket? Thank you.
So let me first start with your first two questions. On the corporate line, we've seen a bit higher benefits in Q4. Of course, structurally, on the back of also our SG&A saving program, but also we had some benefits in pension costs as well as insurance costs. So Q4 was indeed a little bit lower than normal. If you look going forward, in fact, in the past, this line has been roughly EUR 70 million on a total year basis. 25 was a little bit lower. Going forward, you should more think of between EUR 60 million and EUR 70 million. So it is going down, but Q4 was a little bit lower. On the free cash flow has been very much driven by the working capital takeout.
15.7% at the end of last year, 14.7% at the end of 2024, 14.7% at the end of 2025. In fact, on inventory levels, the DIO in days were flat versus the end of 2024, but it included pre-buy of raw materials and also inventory build-up because of the Industrial Excellence program, the site closures in the first quarter. So overall, we are happy with the trajectory of inventory, but also receivables and payables. As we said, we will take further actions to reduce working capital. It will be around 14.5% or just below 14.5% at the end of this year.
To your pricing question, Matthew, I wasn't trying to confuse you. What I was saying is that 2025 was +1% price mix. 2026 should not be very different. It's not going to be a whole lot more. And I'm pointing out the fact that last year, the raw environment was projected to be more challenging than it ended up being. This year, raw mats will be favorable in the first half, less favorable in the second. And as you know, a lot of the price increases, particularly in deco, are things that we submit and we negotiate in the first half of the year.
So, it's really just a question of how quickly we come to a conclusion on that. A lot of our customers look at price versus raw. It's... We'll be expanding, but by how much remains to be seen, and it's not reflected significantly in our margin projections for 2026. So the EUR 100 million is not price heavy. Maarten, did I explain that well? Do you want to add anything?
Maybe some color. I mean, the hundred million is very much self-help. As we mentioned earlier, you have the EUR 90 million net benefit from Industrial Excellence program. We have the carryover of the SG&A program of at least EUR 50 million additional productivity actions, but those are there to offset inflation, because we will see, again, wage inflation of roughly 3%. So, that net EUR 90 million is a net benefit, and then, and that's the main underpinning for the EUR 100 million step up.
Got it. Thank you both.
Thanks.
Our next question is from Tony Jones at Rothschild & Co. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. Tony Jones at Rothschild. I've got two. Firstly, on cash, with the merger still on track, can you update us on the share repurchase? I think it's EUR 400 million post the India sale. I understand the approval's in place, so can we assume that's front-loaded into the first half of 2026? And then, secondly, some of your peers have started to indicate where we are in a refurbishment cycle and how they're planning for that. How do you see Akzo's position? Thank you.
The first question, I think, is a slight misunderstanding. When we announced the merger, we announced that both companies were suspending share buybacks. So the EUR 400 million share buyback at Akzo is not happening, but what's happening is that we're returning EUR 2.5 billion to our shareholders at closing to get to the announced parity. So you're not getting the EUR 400 million as a share buyback upfront, but you're getting the EUR 2.5 billion if we proceed according to plan towards the end of the year as we close the transaction. The second question-
The EUR 2.5 billion, just to be clear, includes the regular dividend-
Yeah, includes the regular dividend.
During the year.
And the second question?
That's really helpful.
What was your second question?
Refurbishment. I didn't understand. What do you mean by refurbishment cycle?
Yeah, some of your competitors have started to talk about extended volume cycles, so things like remodeling activity in certain countries or regions. Do you have a perspective on it?
No, we don't really have anything intelligent to say on this. I think it's a-- it's an old-- I mean, it's a well-known. I don't know if I could call it well-known, but it's a normal kind of behavior pattern, which is that, when the deco market is driven by consumer confidence, and when consumer confidence goes down, there's always been this philosophical debate of, will customers paint less, or will they paint with cheaper products? And, what we've demonstrated over the last few cycles as it relates to Akzo is that, we don't see a lot of trading down, so consumers are not shifting to cheaper products, but they have a tendency to space out the repainting.
But that's in a confidence down scenario. I think consumer confidence has been recovering, so we're not seeing any specific spacing out of repainting or renovations in homes. This is not an effect that will... This is not an effect that we'll use as an excuse for anything.
Thank you.
Tony?
That's really helpful.
Thanks.
Thank you. Next question is from Chetan Udeshi with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, morning. I had a couple of questions. First, just going back to the comments on Q1, sort of outlook, and I just wanted to clarify, you know, typically we see some seasonal uplift in Q1 versus Q4, you know, it could be like 4%, 5%. Are you suggesting we won't see that? Or were your comments more from a, from a year-on-year perspective, being similar to what we saw, in Q4, but we should still see some, sequential improvement, I suppose, in Q1 versus Q4? That's the first question. The second question was, you know, one of the, drags on volumes over second half of last year at Akzo, but also your competitors, have been U.S. weakness. And, you know, we saw the-- yesterday, the manufacturing ISM print was very, very strong, for month of January.
I was just curious if you've actually seen that reflect at all in your orders in the U.S. You know, are you seeing any uplift in your order book in the U.S. that we saw come through in the ISM index print? Thank you very much.
I'll take the second question. It's a bit early to talk about a rebound in the U.S., but in one of our coatings businesses, for which I do have the numbers for January, they're in line with what we were expecting in January, which is a good sign, because sometimes there's a year-end effect, where people kind of are slow to get out of the starting blocks in January. It seems to be progressing according to plan, but it's really too early, Chetan, for us to read signs of an impending rebound in the U.S. from that.
We're still expecting that the first half will be soft in general. Maarten, you wanna-
Yeah, on your-
A nswer the other question, if you want?
Q1 question. I mean, Q4 and Q1 are traditionally the smaller quarters. And what we commented on is that we—if you look sequentially, Q1 looks a lot like Q4. I commented earlier on the volume trajectory, and I also commented on the fact that we will see some of the efficiency actions coming through in Q1, which is then on top of Q4, but overall, similar trends.
Chetan, anything else?
Got it. Thank you.
Thanks.
No, that's, that's fine. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from James Hooper with Bernstein Société Générale Group. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Morning, morning both. I've kind of got one question, two parts. Just wanted to... How do you see your market share has changed over 2025? Greg, I know you referenced packaging on the call, but there's also been some positive commentary out of some of your peers, for example, around auto refinish. And then around that, obviously you've made, you know, you've shown on the slides you've made a lot of progress in the last few years on the cost side. But is there kind of now, kind of, is this the time for a more similar plan on the revenue side? Because if we compare your organic growth to peers, it's been slightly below, you know, not just fourth quarter, but also, you know, through 2025 as well. Thank you.
The organic growth to peers, if I benchmark with PPG, they had a much better quarter in Q4 than we did. But overall, if I take the last 18-24 months, I'm pretty sure that if you benchmark the numbers, you'll see that we grew faster than they did. So, I don't think we're at disadvantage to peers. I do think PPG had a better quarter in Q4 from that perspective. But, you know, you take the quarters in isolation, it's really hard to reach any conclusion. But once again, I don't think this is. I don't think we're growing less than comparable companies. I think we're actually been doing a little bit better from that perspective. But your point is still correct, though.
We've done a lot of work on costs that positions us to be very competitive as the market picks up. We haven't been trying to gain market share at the expense of pricing. So the combination of the cost takeout and the price discipline has been more about margin expansion than it has been about using, using price to to gain volume. If I take your, your market share question, vehicle refinish, we're, we're not, we're not losing market share. I think these comments from peers were probably inelegant, cryptic comments about companies getting sold and being distracted, and, and, and the other guys picking up the pieces while while the company's getting distracted. But it wasn't an Akzo comment. We're we're fine from that perspective. Packaging is a very isolated issue.
It's linked to a product introduction. You've got approvals. We were more ambitious in the product development, but that ambition led us to be a little bit late to the party in terms of getting the approvals. The approvals are all happening. There's no technical issue linked to that. It's just that it put us at the back of the queue, and therefore it leads to a market share drop for 12-18 months, you know, a bit of last year and most of 2026, and then a recovery in 2027. It's not ideal, but it's a temporary thing, and it's... and we're very confident about the quality and the performance of our product.
On everything else, in powder, I think we've been gaining market share, if I look at our performance versus everybody else. Let's see, what can I comment? In Marine protective, clearly, we've been gaining market share. We've been recovering the last few years, and our trajectory is very much a market share positive trajectory, and I made the comment that our growth in Marine in 2026 was based on dry docking market share gains. And in deco, we've been gaining certainly in Latin America. I know we gained market share in Colombia this year. Brazil was a weird year because of the Suvinil effect, as I explained, but I think Q4 was the first quarter where our our.
Where AkzoNobel had higher customer recognition than Suvinil in the retail market, knowing that historically, Suvinil was a leader, so that tells you that our trajectory is pretty good. And in deco in Europe, you know, if you take the U.K. market, which is a really large market for us, our second largest customer went bankrupt last year, Homebase, and despite that, we didn't lose market share in 2025. Which is really an incredible achievement, if you think about it, because what it means is that, because by the way, we were over-indexed in Homebase. Homebase had a very premium paint segment, so we were over-indexed in.
You know, we were essentially, our market share in Homebase was higher than our market share overall in the U.K. Despite Homebase disappearing, and some of the stores getting closed, and some of them changing formats, we maintained our market share in the U.K., which means that people were not buying at Homebase. They were buying Dulux, and when Homebase went away, people bought Dulux, but somewhere else, which I think is an incredible reflection of the strengths of the brand. So no, from a market share perspective, we feel comfortable, apart from the packaging points, which is a temporary issue that I pointed out. We feel comfortable that we are either defending or in the areas I've mentioned, gaining.
But, you know, once again, in a market that doesn't have a whole lot of direction, it has a lot of softness, you have to decide whether you're willing to compromise on price in order to gain volumes. But we clearly have competitors. If you take the powder market, we have competitors who are playing a price game right now, and, and some of those are competitors that I've mentioned in this long-winded answer. So it's, different people have different game plans. Ours is to expand margins, and, that's what we'll continue to do. And then the volumes will come, but, it's not... Our, our, our first priority is, is not volumes. We certainly want to defend our positions, but we will grow only if that growth is, growth that comes with, with, really strong price discipline.
Hopefully, I answered your question?
Yeah, thank you. Very, very, very comprehensive.
Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question is from Stefano Tofano with ABN AMRO and Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Maybe just one question on the market share. I mean, a very comprehensive answer, so thank you very much for that. But, I mean, looking at the results, I think if I'm not mistaken, and please correct me if I'm wrong, this is the first negative organic growth quarter since, I believe, Q2 2020, according to my model, unless I made some mistake. But it does—I mean, do I read too much into that? Because, you know, again, one of the first ideas here is, is-
Yes, maybe you're focusing internally on the margin, et cetera, but at the expense of some overall market share. So maybe if you can comment a little bit on that. Second one, on, on working capital, I noticed that the mid-term guidance for the working capital has been nudged up a little bit to 13%-14%, and it was 13%. I was wondering what the idea was behind that. Last question, and just a technical one, if you can please remind me how much India Adjusted EBITDA was in 2025. Thank you.
Okay. Your first question, I gave a really long-winded answer the first time around. I'll give a really short one. Yes, you're reading too much into Q4. It's a small quarter. It. There's no valid extrapolation from that one data point, and as you rightly pointed out, the direction has been pretty consistently the other way around, for the last few years. Therefore, no, we're not dropping market share. I commented very transparently on packaging. You know, a lot of companies would sort of dance around these issues.
Look, at the end of the day, it's sometimes you're first out of the gate, sometimes you're not first out of the gates, and it's important to understand how that unfolds. But overall, we've had good momentum in a soft market, and once again, we're not arbitrating in the way you're implying. So I said it'd be a short answer, and then I couldn't resist giving a longer one. But yes, you're reading too much. Working capital?
On working capital, yes, our original guidance, which we gave two years ago, was around 13%. We are saying now more in the range of 13%-14%. I think it's also a reflection that the world is changing. And it's better to have a little bit more inventory, especially given the volatility in the markets and the tariff situation. So things have changed. But overall, we are on our improvement trajectory from working capital levels, which were 17%, 18%, coming now to 14.7%, and getting by 2027 to that range of 13%-14%. So...
And it's very much also benefiting on the back of our Industrial Excellence program, where we are optimizing our footprint, but also our supply chains. So that's on the working capital. On India, and what we've said earlier is that compared to 2025, you need to correct for EUR 40 million downwards, and the impact in December was EUR 6 million. So the total correction on Adjusted EBITDA level is EUR 46 million, of which EUR 6 million sits already in December 2025, and then 2025 to 2026, a correction of EUR 40 million.
I think this was the last question.
Okay. Thank you very much, guys.
Hey, thanks a lot. We'll wrap up because you guys have a busy day. It's Q4 was a soft quarter in terms of market momentum, but it was a strong quarter in terms of execution, as was 2025. We end the quarter and we end the year, price up, profit up, cash up, so we're executing on what we can control. Once again, we're staying disciplined, and we're working full speed ahead on getting to closing with Axalta as quickly as possible and targeting the end of 2026, and at least in this early phase, hitting our milestones to get there. So, that's all I have for you today. I thank you for your time and your interest, and we'll talk to you soon. Thank you.