Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's AMG Q1 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, you will have an opportunity to ask questions during the question and answer period. You may register to ask a question at any time by pressing star one on your touchtone phone. Please note this call is being recorded and I will be standing by should you need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Michele Fischer. Please go ahead.
Welcome to AMG's first quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me on this call are Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, the Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jackson Dunckel, the Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Eric Jackson, the Chief Operating Officer. AMG's first quarter 2023 earnings press release issued yesterday is on AMG's website. Today's call will begin with a review of the first quarter 2023 business highlights by Dr. Schimmelbusch. Mr. Dunckel will comment on AMG's financial results. Mr. Jackson will discuss operations. At the completion of Mr. Jackson's remarks, Dr. Schimmelbusch will comment on strategy and outlook. We will then open the call to take your questions.
Before I pass the call to Dr. Sc hi mmelbusch, I would like to expressly refer you to our statement on forward-looking statements and the meaning thereof, as which have used all previous occasions and we use at this earnings call, and which explanatory statement has been published as part of our financial presentation and at our website, all in connection with this earnings call. I will now pass the floor to Dr. Schimmelbusch, AMG's Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer.
Thank you, Michele. As announced and subject to approval of our shareholders at our annual general meeting later today, AMG will change its name from AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. to AMG Critical Materials N.V. We achieved record earnings and record operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2023. Revenue increased by 12% to $451 million versus the first quarter of 2022. EBITDA increased 116 to $118 million compared to $55 million in the first quarter of 2022. This is the third straight quarter in which AMG has exceeded $100 million of EBITDA. The $63 million EBITDA increase over the first quarter of 2022 was driven largely by the Clean Energy Materials segment, specifically AMG Lithium and its Brazil operation with an EBITDA contribution of $92 million.
Our expansion projects remain on track. The lithium concentrate expansion project in AMG Brazil is processing as planned, and our hydroxide refinery in Bitterfeld, Germany is under construction, with commissioning for the first 20,000 ton module expected in the fourth quarter of 2023. With regards to resource development, AMG purchased a 25% shareholding in Zinnwald Lithium PLC and is supporting the Zinnwald board to accelerate the development of this project. As a partner with Zinnwald, together, we will pursue a definitive feasibility study for the project in East Germany. Establishing a raw material base in Germany close to our Bitterfeld operations has obvious logistical and strategic benefits to AMG. Regarding solid-state battery activities, AMG Lithium GmbH has engaged in a joint production project with Fraunhofer, Münster University, Wacker, and Schunk to develop next-generation solid-state batteries based on lithium-sulfur technology.
AMG Lithium will provide lithium sulfide and solid electrolytes for this project. The new spent catalyst recycling facility in Zanesville, Ohio, continues to progress, with the roaster operating at full design capacity and the melt shop targeting full production capacity later in the second quarter this year. That might be earlier. AMG has completed the expansion of its vanadium oxide, referred to as V2O5, production in Nürnberg, which is capable of using gasification ash and spent catalysts as feedstock. V2O5 is increasingly destined for the flow battery market. Shell & AMG Recycling B.V continues to advance its projects in the Middle East, including the first phase of the so-called Supercenter project based on long-term supply agreements with Aramco. Front-end engineering design for the first phase of the project, the conversion of gasification ash into V2O5, began in late 2022 and will be completed in the 4Q 2023.
I will now pass the floor to Jackson Dunckel, AMG's Chief Financial Officer. Jackson?
Thank you, Heinz.
I'll be referring to the first quarter 2023 investor presentation posted yesterday on our website. Starting on page 3, this shows an overview of the financial highlights of the quarter. Revenue for the quarter increased versus the prior year by 12% to $451 million. This increase was mainly driven by the improved price environment in our AMG Clean Energy Materials segment. Q1 2023 EBITDA was $118 million, a 116% increase versus the prior year. As you can see in the lower left corner, AMG continues to sequentially increase EBITDA each quarter. Net income to shareholders increased to $56 million for Q1 2023, yielding a $1.72 of diluted earnings per share, compared to $0.89 in Q1 2022. Now I'm gonna review our three segments.
Starting with AMG Clean Energy Materials, which is shown on page four of our presentation. On the top left, you can see that Q1 2023 revenues increased 53% versus Q1 2022 to $219 million. This increase was driven mainly by higher prices in tantalum and lithium concentrates, as well as increased sales volumes of vanadium and tantalum concentrate. Increased volumes in vanadium were due to the ramp-up of our Zanesville facility. Q1 2023 EBITDA increased to $106 million from $37 million in the first quarter of 2022, largely driven by our lithium business. I would like to highlight the cost per ton delivered to China, which was $338 per ton for the period ending March 31, 2023.
This is a world-class result, and it is partially due to having a very strong tantalum business. As we previously discussed, the tantalum revenues are used as a cost offset to the cost per ton of lithium concentrate. This effect was particularly noteworthy in Q1, where, similar to our fourth quarter, the cost per ton figure was positively impacted by high shipments of tantalum. Finally, the quarterly CapEx, shown on the bottom left of $43 million, mainly reflects our investment into a battery-grade lithium hydroxide plant in Bitterfeld, Germany, and the expansion of our lithium concentrate capacity in Brazil, as well as ongoing residual investment into the Zanesville vanadium facility. Turning now to page five of our presentation, which shows AMG Critical Minerals.
AMG Critical Minerals revenue for the quarter decreased 41% to $63 million compared to Q1 2022 due to lower volumes across the segment, which was primarily driven by the silicon metal care and maintenance plan for the first 2 months of this year, prior to restarting and operating 1 furnace in March. The segment also suffered from a slowdown in the European industrial economy, which impacted volumes in both graphite and antimony. Q1 2023 EBITDA decreased 68% compared to Q1 2022 to $3 million due to lower volumes. As of March 1, 2023, AMG's silicon metal plant restarted operating 1 furnace, which will continue through the second quarter, with plans to operate 1 furnace in the third quarter as well.
We will continue to review the operational parameters of the silicon business on an ongoing basis and will adjust as appropriate in line with the favorable and predictable market conditions. Due to these interruptions in the silicon business, the financial results will be excluded from EBITDA during this period of abnormal operations. However, AMG Silicon generated $11 million in cash flow from operating activities during the quarter, driven by the receipt of energy sales made in the 4th quarter of 2022. As noted previously, the financial impact of the care and maintenance program does not significantly impact AMG's overall projected 2023 financial results. Moving on to AMG Critical Materials Technologies on page 6. Starting on the top left, you can see that Q1 2023 revenue increased by $15 million or 10% versus Q1 2022.
This improvement was due to higher sales volumes of titanium alloys and chrome metal. EBITDA was $9 million during the quarter compared to $10 million in Q1 2022. The slight decrease is due to lower sequential chrome prices, partially offset by stronger profitability from our AMG Engineering business. AMG Engineering signed $76 million of new orders during Q1 2023, driven by strong orders of remelting, turbine blade, and heat treatment furnaces, representing a 1.21 book-to-bill ratio. Order backlog at the end of the quarter was $237 million, the highest since March 31, 2020. Turning now to page 7 of the presentation. On the top left, you can see that AMG's Q1 2023 SG&A expenses were $40 million, versus $37 million in Q1 2022.
This increase was largely driven by the higher personnel costs and variable compensation expense due to the increase in headcount related to the lithium and vanadium expansion projects in our AMG Clean Energy Materials segment. AMG's net finance cost in Q1 2023 was $7 million, compared to $9 million in Q1 2022. This variance was mainly driven by foreign exchange gains of $2 million during the quarter, which were due to non-cash intergroup balances. AMG capitalized $2 million of interest costs in the first quarter of 2023 versus a capitalization of $4 million in the same period in 2022. This decrease is mainly driven by the interest associated with the expansion projects in AMG Lithium and Brazil operations, compared to a higher capitalized interest associated with the company's tax-exempt municipal bond supporting the vanadium expansion in Ohio in the prior year.
AMG recorded an income tax expense of $36 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to a tax benefit of $1 million in Q1 2022. This variance was mainly driven by higher profitability at AMG Lithium at its Brazil operation, coupled with movements in the Brazilian real. The effects of the Brazilian real caused a $2 million tax expense in Q1 2023, compared to a $15 million tax benefit in the same period in 2022. AMG paid taxes of $21 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to tax payments of $4 million in Q1 2022. The higher cash payments in the current period were largely a result of higher profitability in Brazil.
Turning to page eight of the presentation, you can see on the top left that cash from operating activities was $93 million in Q1 2023, compared to cash used in operating activities of $4 million in the same period for 2022. This increase in operating cash flow was due to the higher profitability in the current period. AMG's return on capital employed for the first three months of the year was 37.9%, compared to 19.8% achieved in the first three months of last year due to significantly higher profitability. AMG ended the quarter with $311 million of net debt, with the decrease versus year-end 2022 mainly due to $10 million of debt repayment and higher unrestricted cash of $14 million, offset by the utilization of restricted cash associated with the municipal bond.
As of March 31, 2023, AMG had $360 million of unrestricted cash and total liquidity of $555 million. That concludes my remarks. Eric?
Thank you, Jackson. AMG's operations continued to perform exceptionally well during the first quarter, especially in the context of today's volatile markets. Consistent with our previous statements, we expect our spent catalyst processing facility in Zanesville, Ohio, to achieve full production capacity later in the second quarter of 2023. This means that our 2023 production volumes will be somewhat back-end-weighted for the year. The lithium concentrate expansion project in Brazil is now slated to temporarily shut production in Q3 to integrate our expansion. This will take place over a four-week period and will result in reduced production in the third quarter. Our expectations are that the subsequent ramp up will be shorter than originally planned. We believe net of co-product credits, we are at or near the low end of the global lithium concentrate cost curve.
This is borne out by the $408 per ton CIF China cost we have averaged over the 12-month period ending March 31, 2023. 11% better than our full year 2022 cost of $461 per ton. That trend continues to improve as we averaged $338 per ton for the first three months of this year. Major drivers of the lower cost in the quarter were lower mining costs and higher tantalum sales. It's worth restating that 100% of our tantalum concentrate production is sold under the terms of our joint venture with JX Nippon Mining & Metals Corporation. AMG Lithium's battery-grade lithium hydroxide refinery in Germany is under construction, and commissioning for the first 20,000 ton module will start in the fourth quarter of this year.
In January 2023, we announced approval for a vanadium electrolyte plant expansion in AMG Titanium in Nürnberg, Germany. The target capacity is 6,000 cubic meters of vanadium electrolyte produced from secondary feedstocks. Construction has started. Commissioning and production are expected to begin at the end of 2023. As of March 1, 2023, AMG Silicon Metal Plant in Pocking, Germany restarted operations, running 1 of our 4 furnaces. AMG Silicon will operate in this manner at least through the third quarter. As Jackson mentioned, we will continue to review the operational parameters of the silicon business and adjust as appropriate in line with favorable and predictable market and cost conditions.
In terms of our Critical Materials Technologies segment, AMG Engineering had a book-to-bill ratio of 1.21 at the end of Q1 2023, and has had an exceptionally strong order intake to date in the second quarter. We continue to focus on safety, operational improvement, risk management, and successfully delivering our strategic projects on time and on budget. Our overriding objective is to be the low cost, highest quality, and most environmentally responsible producer in all of our businesses. I would now like to pass the floor to Dr. Schimmelbusch, AMG's Chief Executive Officer.
Thank you, Eric. The increased profitability going forward is very much driven by the strategic projects coming on stream in 2023 and 2024. In particular, Zanesville, the vanadium recycling operation, our lithium concentrate expansion, and our first lithium hydroxide refinery module in Bitterfeld, Germany.
In terms of this year, AMG reaffirms its guidance to exceed $400 million EBITDA. Regarding AMG's five-year guidance, the outstanding progress we have made with our strategic growth projects and given the compelling long-term supply and demand dynamics in the lithium market, we are issuing new guidance to achieve $650 million EBITDA or more in five years or earlier. Operator, we would now like to open the line for questions.
Certainly. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your touchtone phone. You may withdraw your question at any time by pressing star two. Once again, that is star and one. We will take our first question from Stijn Demeester with ING. Please go ahead.
Yes. Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three to start with, if I may. The first one is on AMG Brazil. If I compare your Q1 average selling price for spodumene to the Q4 reported price, and I take into account the three to four month lag, AMG seems to be able to better capture, or capture a better share of the spot price. Anything particular that drives this change with regards to sort of a better market pricing?
Well, don't read too much into this analysis because the shipments, at quarter end, variations of shipments, variations like of sales in the quarter end. It's yearly or average, it's a better number. I don't think that there is any particular answer I can give.
Okay. Okay. Maybe related. Amidst the recent price declines seen in Chinese spot markets, especially for lithium carbonate, can you help us understand what gives you the confidence to reiterate the full year 2023 guidance? Also noting that there will be downtime in Q3. Any sort of comfort you can give to the market, because I think that's sort of one of the concerns that is currently in the marketplace.
Let me first of all say that we do this guidance very thoroughly. We run a host of scenarios, as explained many times, and then we have very thorough analysis of each of those scenarios. We select what we believe are the most realistic scenarios, and we look at it, and then we come to the conclusion of the guidance. In 2023, there will be an interruption of production of what, about 2 to 3 weeks in Q3, when we switch from flowsheet, from the traditional flowsheet to the new flowsheet in the operation of spodumene production in Brazil. That will be overcompensated by a rapid increase of production this year, substantial increase. Please note that substantial increase is also accompanied by a substantial increase of the tantalum production.
Both lithium and tantalum will be higher in Q4 as ever before. Please also note that tantalum is 100% sold, and lithium is 100% sold under long-term contract. This, by the way, is also true for ferrovanadium. We will very shortly now reach. As we speak, actually, we are running at 100% capacity in Zanesville. The ferrovanadium production, which is also sold under long-term contracts, will contribute to the overall picture in 2023. We have a strong quantity effect here. The price assumptions are extremely conservative. We are of course benefiting from very high prices still in the first quarter reaching into the second quarter. Always remember, spodumene prices and hydroxide prices and carbonate prices have very different volatilities. The hydroxide prices went down slightly.
The carbonate prices went down heavily. The spodumene price is in between, but much less than the carbonate prices. We are in a good sector of the lithium market, by the way, that extends into the future because in hydroxide, we will produce hydroxide in our refinery. That's what makes us comfortable to reaffirm our guidance.
Yeah. If I may comment on this, because this comes back to my first question. Has there been a change in the contract structure recently that makes you less dependent to the lithium carbonate price in China?
No. We have, you know, in the price picture, there are review dates at which the parties adjust the prices and peacefully. That is ongoing and has not a specific effect. It's just a solid performance. You know, I can repeat what I just said, you know. Look at the-
Okay.
Quantity expansion. Look at multiplied by prices which look at 100%. No, no quantity risk. You're talking to a company which has sold its production 100% under long-term contracts. This is at market prices. This is relatively rare.
Yeah. Under-understood.
Our visibility is very strong. That's what I'm saying here. I mean, if I was an analyst, I also would be skeptical. You know, I'm always skeptical. If I'm not an analyst, you know, I'm producing.
Understood. Understood. The final question is on the portfolio organization, because even with these outstanding results, valuation looks increasingly sort of, yeah, it, low. Is there an update to give here on how you organize the business portfolio divestments of businesses which, sort of, are increasingly seen as non-core and a diversion to management attention. Yeah, any comments here on that?
I very much like your reference to management attention because I can really answer what my management attention is. My management attention is on execution of strategic projects because the profitability of management time spent on strategic projects exceeds the profitability of management time in selling assets. Let me talk about selling assets. Of course, we have a few assets which could be addressed as non-core. If you have to address categories, you can address them as non-core. These assets, by the way, are cash positive, so that reduces the haste by which one would pay attention as management in comparison to strategic projects to that issue. Then there's another element.
When you look at a potential disposition of assets, you obviously compare the present value of the existing cash flow from that operation to the present value of the cash flow you would have, assuming that you have sold at a particular price. Now, in most cases, when we look at this, the sales prices are low. The potential sales prices are low. The present value of the free cash flow from those operations exceeds what we would have as a free cash flow after the sales on an annualized basis. As I said, we are looking at this very carefully, constantly. We are focused on execution of our strategic projects because that's a full-time job.
If there is an opportunity arising that this equation, which I just characterized as a net present value comparison, if that equation goes, into a positive territory, we of course will react.
Okay. There is a third element in the equation being the price that the market is willing to pay for a conglomerate.
Of course.
Potentially also.
Of course. What you are talking about is that if we sell something, then the market would reward this by a higher stock price, even if we are selling it at a bad price. That's what you're saying.
Potentially.
That's a difficult statement.
Okay, understood. Okay, thanks for addressing my question.
Once again, to ask a question, that's star one. We will take our next question from Martijn den Drijver with ABN AMRO. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. It's actually ABN AMRO. My first question is on the longer-term ambition level or target level for EBITDA at the 500 that has now moved to 650. Is there any scope change in that updated guidance? Because it's 5 years, so we're talking 2028. Have you now included possibly some effects of a Brazilian conversion plant or train 2 and 3? If there's no change in the scope that you've used for that upgraded long-term guidance, what is the key component for the raise from 500 to 650? That would be question one, please.
First of all, looking at that timeline, you look at two modules of the refineries. We believe that the execution of the expansion of Bitterfeld will be rapid.
Mm-hmm.
The second refinery. The refinery profitability is extensive. You can measure that by the difference between carbonate prices and hydroxide prices in a certain way. Although, one has to be very specific here and know the quality, the qualities, in detail. There is a substantial profitability associated with those refineries. You have the expansion of Brazil operations into carbonate.
Mm-hmm.
That is a substantial move. We are in a very mature stage of feasibility there. We have financing alternatives which are very attractive. As you know, the detour of converting spodumene into hydroxide technical grade or a carbonate technical grade in China and then refining in Germany, that is a long journey which involves working capital-
Mm-hmm.
Costs. The direct delivery from Brazil to Germany is extensively profitable compared to the detour. You have, of course, the full production of two recycling facilities in Ohio, the world's largest such operation, which is in all likelihood operating at a very high capacity utilization and 100% of its products are sold under long-term contracts. When you take this together with the expansion in Brazil of the spodumene production, the tantalum production, the carbonate production in Brazil, and when you take this with the second refinery in production, you easily arrive at a pretty high number, which makes us very comfortable to say 650.
We could have also said a higher number if we were in a sort of aggressive mode, but we are not. We are conservative.
Got it. Thank you very much. On my second question, I was hoping to pick your brain a little bit. The lithium prices seem to be bottoming out, and I was wondering if you could provide how you view this. Is that due to more demand and restocking in China? Or is it perhaps linked to the developments in China? If you could share your thoughts on.
In your eyes.
on the recent price developments in lithium.
I read your question in such a way that you believe that the origin of the major movements are in China, and that is correct. We analyze this on a weekly basis. On a daily basis sometimes. The turnaround is visible, and is confirmed by the figures which we receive on this. It's now driven by impressive figures of EV demand and sales of cars. There has to be a restocking happening, and those movements can be relatively rapid.
Mm-hmm.
because it's a chain reaction. Has to be observed in all these kinds of volatile commodity markets. We are moderately positive that this will turn around and return to somewhat higher levels, whether we. I mean our internal optimists say it will rebound to the previous heights, but I'm more moderate here. You know, given my age, I'm sort of cautious.
Understood. Understood. Mr. Jackson re-referred to Cambridge 2, that it will be fully contributing somewhere in the second quarter. If we take the potential EBITDA contribution of Zanesville or Cambridge 2, and you look at the EBITDA contribution in the first quarter, what was the percentage? Was it running at 25% of aim for EBITDA contribution? Was it at 50%? Just to give us a sense of what type of uptake we can expect in the second quarter and third quarter.
In the first quarter, there was almost...
Very little. Very little.
Nothing. I mean, there was no contribution of Zanesville in the first quarter to speak of. In, in percentages, I would say below 10%.
Got it.
The ramp up will be significant.
Ramp up in the second quarter, really 100% contributions in the third quarter. That's the correct way to think of it.
We are right now in the second quarter. The last week we were running at full capacity. If this is stabilizing, then of course, you can a substantial portion of the second quarter.
Mm-hmm.
will be then benefiting from that production. you know, it needs to-
Understood.
This is a complex facility. We are extremely proud to have reached full capacity ahead of schedule. That we believe to have reached full capacity. As I said, the roaster is stabilized, running on 100%, producing roasted material. That, of course, has to be turned into ferrovanadium in order to be financially rewarding.
Mm-hmm.
The melt shop is now running at 100% for the first time, in a stable way. If that is continuing, it will be now a very strong contributor for the rest of the year.
Got it. My final question is with regards to CMT and chrome, chromium pricing. You've obviously had some headwind due to the more recent price developments in chrome, down sequentially the last two quarters. Should we assume now that you, in Q2, will have the ability to pass on those effects that EBITDA will improve in line with the recovery that you've guided for CMT, for technologies?
Yeah. We believe, first of all, the background in aerospace is positive. chrome in its high end, and therefore in its most profitable products, qualities, is going to aerospace, especially to the aerospace engine. To high performance steel, highly alloyed steel, which essentially is 20% chrome metal also. We are a function of the recovering aerospace market, which is very strong going forward. Secondly, we were low performing and are still low performing in chrome because of the turbulences which were caused by the happenings in the regions where chromium oxide is being produced. That is in Russia, Kazakhstan, and China. These turbulences have muddled the water in chrome.
Mm-hmm.
As that stabilizes, which I think is underway, more visibility will return and substantial incremental EBITDA is likely. We will return to that. I mean, from practically 0 to maybe the intrinsic EBITDA of the chrome business, in my definition, is $20 million-$30 million a year EBITDA intrinsic. We missed that $20 million-$30 million in the last quarters because of that volatility in the oxide markets. You know, when certain producers in China and other places in the East simply flooded the market, that was confusing.
Got it. Your expectation of stabilization of that market, is that really visible in objective measures, or is it just an expectation at this moment?
You know, the future is never measurable. It's just, you know, you have to take my judgment here as the measure. We know those markets.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Those were my questions.
As a reminder, that is star one for your questions. We will go next to Maarten Verbeek with the IDEA!. Please go ahead.
Good morning. It's Maarten Verbeek of the IDEA!. A few questions from my side. When you mentioned the building blocks to get to $650 EBITDA in five years' time, I did miss the contribution of Shell AMG, or is this purely from an accounting point of view that it won't be included in EBITDA?
That's correct.
Okay.
Let me comment. We are in FEL 3, as it is active. Who is breathing here? In FEL 3, feasibility study of the hydrometallurgical conversion plant, the gasification ash into V2O5 there. That is a very large investment. It will be then under construction. When it is, it will of course come on in the five-year period. This will be equity accounting, and it will happen in the net income, so not in the EBITDA.
Are you willing to provide some kind of range what that kind of contribution that might bring to net income?
No.
Okay. Secondly, to get to this 650, you have to make as investment. At the CMD, you mentioned that you will make some $1 billion of investments in lithium. When I add your current investments and what you have made, more or less I arrive at $250 million-$300 million. Is correct that you still have to make some $700 million-$750 million to be able to achieve this 650 EBITDA level?
I don't get this arithmetically, this mathematical, what you said.
Let's go over the 250. Maarten, what do you have?
I have the initial investment in Mibra. I also take a large part of the expansion plan, most of the first module 1, and the investment in Zinnwald.
Was it-
You already have announced more or less the magnitude, what will be for modules two to five, the technical grade lithium carbonate one and the battery grade lithium carbonate one. There's still a portion which you have not disclosed yet where you will invest at. More or less when I add those numbers, then I do arrive at some $250 million to $300 million of investments.
No, no.
you already have made.
Okay, let's go through it again. What has been addressed is too far, including the expansion in Brazil, let's name it at $150. Let's add the carbonate with $250 in Brazil so that we're at $400. Let's add $150 for the infrastructure plus the first module all together. We're at $400 plus $150, that's $550. Let's add another module, including certain bells and whistles for being able to receive all qualities of technical grade things, $100. Where were we?
$6.50 now.
$650 now. Let's take an investment in a resource such as Zinnwald, which we'll need of course. Like the Zinnwald owner, the Zinnwald company of course is not having a cash flow. This will be project financed and we will be of course participating in this in order to provide the equity for the project financing. If you take this at $200 million just as an example. There are other resource projects, one of which will be probably announced later this year. You know, We will be, I think, running through that $1 billion relative quickly.
Getting back to the core of the question is how much do you still need to invest in the upcoming years to achieve this $650 million of EBITDA?
What is in the-
let's see, No, 22. $500 million.
Okay. Okay. Then, lastly, you have clearly up to your midterm EBITDA guidance. In your annual report, you also introduced a kind of guidance that you stated that over the period till 2026, you expect an average EBITDA of more than $400 million. Should we then conclude that the upward towards the $650 million will be more or less back-end loaded? That's a bit contradictory to what you just stated that a lot of new products will get on stream in 2023 and 2024. Then already we should see a hike in profitability.
No, the it's not back-end loaded. It's a very big move will come in 2024. It's harmonical. It will be not. It's not heavily back-end loaded. Of course, the second module comes in the later part of this 5-year period. That is a significant incremental EBITDA.
Okay, thank you very much.
Once again, as a reminder, that is star and one. We will pause to allow any further questions to queue. Okay, it does appear that we have no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Michele Fischer for closing remarks.
This concludes our Q1 2023 earnings call. We will host our annual general meeting at 1 P.M. today in person, and we will also stream the event. Thank you for your kind attention.
Thank you. This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.