AMG Critical Materials N.V. (AMS:AMG)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Oct 28, 2021

Operator

Good day, and welcome to AMG's Q3 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Michele Fischer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Michele Fischer
VP of Investor Relations, AMG

Welcome to AMG's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Joining me on this call are Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, the Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jackson Dunckel, the Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Eric Jackson, the Chief Operating Officer. AMG's third quarter 2021 earnings press release issued yesterday is on AMG's website. Today's call will begin with a review of the third quarter 2021 business highlights by Dr. Schimmelbusch. Mr. Dunkel will comment on AMG's financial results, and Mr. Jackson will discuss operations. At the completion of Mr. Jackson's remarks, Dr. Schimmelbusch will comment on strategy and outlook. We will then open the call to take your questions. Before I pass the call to Dr. Schimmelbusch, I would like to comment on forward-looking statements. This conference call could contain forward-looking statements about AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group.

Forward-looking statements are not historical facts, but may include statements concerning AMG's plans, expectations, future revenues or performance, financing needs, plans and intentions relating to acquisitions, AMG's competitive strengths and weaknesses, reserves, financial position and future operations and development, AMG's business strategy, and the trends that AMG anticipates in the industries and the political and legal environment in which it operates, and other similar or different information that is not historical information. When used in this conference call, the words expects, believes, anticipates, plans, may, will, should, and similar expressions and the negatives thereof are intended to identify forward-looking statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and risks exist that any predictions, forecasts, or similar projections contained in such forward-looking statements will not be achieved. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this conference call.

AMG expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in AMG's expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions, or circumstances on which any forward-looking statement is based. I will now pass the floor to Dr. Schimmelbusch, AMG's Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

Thank you, Michelle. With regard to COVID, active cases at AMG have receded to a very low level. We continue to apply all safety measures at our disposal with the highest degree of attention in order to ensure our employees are working in the lowest risk environment possible. AMG continues to sequentially improve EBITDA in the third quarter despite negative seasonal impacts. All of AMG's businesses are experiencing ongoing price increases and strong volumes. However, the operating environment has grown more challenging, with increases in shipping times and costs and higher energy prices affecting every business unit. AMG passes those cost increases through to customers where possible, and we will continue to actively manage these cost exposures going forward. All segments performed well, most notably our Clean Energy Materials segment, where presently our major strategic projects are clustered.

This segment continues to deliver strong EBITDA, which increased 44% over the second quarter in 2021 to $18 million, the sixth straight quarter of sequentially increasing EBITDA. The strategic projects are proceeding as planned. Each of these projects is oriented towards growing our production of electricity storage materials and/or increasing our footprint in the circular economy. Each of these projects, the second spent catalyst recycling facility, Spodumene 1+, and the battery-grade lithium hydroxide upgrader in Germany, will significantly enhance our profitability and contribute to meeting our long-term goals. Regarding our project execution capability, the construction of AMG Vanadium's second spent catalyst recycling facility in Zanesville, Ohio, continues to be on time and within budget. As a reminder, we have also met the Spodumene production costs and yield in Brazil that was targeted at the time of the project decision.

In transforming into a high-growth company through projects of this kind, execution capability is a critical success factor. I would now like to pass the floor to Jackson Dunckel, AMG's Chief Financial Officer. Jackson?

Jackson Dunckel
CFO, AMG

Thank you, Heinz. I will be referring to the third quarter 2021 investor presentation posted yesterday on our website. Starting on page three, this shows an overview of the financial highlights of the quarter. Revenue for the quarter increased by 58% to $312 million. This increase was mainly driven by an improving price environment and increasing global demand for our products, which led to higher sales, prices, and volumes across all three of our divisions. Q3 2021 EBITDA was $33.1 million. This result was more than twice as much as Q3 2020.

As you can see in the lower left corner, AMG continues to sequentially increase EBITDA each quarter, which we have done since the second quarter of 2020, our lowest profitability during the height of the slowdown due to the global pandemic. In terms of earnings, AMG's third quarter loss for the period of $0.3 million was negatively impacted by two significant non-cash items. One, the Brazilian real caused a $7.5 million deferred tax expense in the third quarter of 2021. And two, intergroup balance sheet positions associated with our European cash pooling arrangements incurred $1.8 million of foreign exchange expense net of tax during the third quarter of 2021. Excluding these non-cash items would have resulted in a profit for the period of $9 million. Now I'll turn to a review of our three segments.

Let's start with Clean Energy Materials, which is shown on page four of our presentation. On the top left, you can see that Q3 revenues increased by 87% versus the prior year. This increase was driven mainly by higher sales volumes of lithium concentrate and higher prices for vanadium, tantalum, and lithium concentrate. As we mentioned last quarter, our realized spodumene prices were lower than market prices because of a two to four month lag due to contractual terms. Gross profit before non-recurring items increased by $17 million compared to Q3 2020. Q3 2021 EBITDA increased by $14.8 million versus the prior year, and the $18 million result represented Clean Energy Materials' sixth straight sequential quarterly increase.

Clean Energy Materials is the segment which is and will continue receiving the most capital investment within AMG, and the capital expenditures shown on the bottom left of $49 million mainly reflect our investment into the Zanesville vanadium facility, as well as our lithium hydroxide plant in Bitterfeld, Germany. Turning now to page five of our presentation, which shows our AMG Critical Minerals segment. AMG Critical Minerals revenue increased 52% to $79 million, driven by higher sales volumes across all three businesses, as well as by higher antimony sales prices. Gross profit before non-recurring items increased by 25% in Q3 due to the increased revenue from each unit. However, on a sequential basis, shipping costs and energy prices were significantly higher than the previous quarter, and the segment was only able to partially pass these increased costs through to their customers.

EBITDA during the quarter was in line with Q3 2020 due to higher personnel costs, which are offset by the improved gross profit. Moving on to AMG Critical Materials Technologies on page six. Starting on the top left, you can see that Q3 2021 revenue increased by $38 million or 43% versus Q3 2020. This increase was due to higher sales volumes of titanium aluminides and chrome metal and higher chrome pricing. As a result, Q3 2021 gross profit before non-recurring items increased by 54% to $20.3 million. AMG Critical Materials Technologies' Q3 EBITDA of $8.5 million increased $4.2 million from Q3 last year, primarily due to higher profitability related to the higher sales volumes of titanium aluminides and chrome metal.

Order backlog was $155.1 million as of September 30th, 2021, 19% lower than $190.6 million as of June 30th, 2021, due largely to the delayed orders noted above as well as product mix impacts, representing a 0.5 times book-to-bill ratio. The company is experiencing higher volumes of smaller orders due to diversifying outside of the aerospace market, which reduces the period-ending order backlog but does not indicate lower profitability levels. The company signed $27.9 million in new orders during Q3 2021. This low ratio was driven mainly by timing and seasonality and is expected to be compensated by higher intake in the fourth quarter, resulting in a normalized full-year book-to-bill ratio. Turning now to page seven of the presentation.

On the top left, you can see that AMG's Q3 2021 SG&A expenses were $34 million versus $30 million in Q3 2020. This increase was primarily driven by higher strategic project costs as well as personnel costs. The prior period personnel costs had been reduced by cost reduction efforts in response to the onset of the pandemic. AMG's Q3 2021 net finance costs were $7.5 million compared to $4.5 million in Q3 2020. This increase was mainly driven by the higher foreign exchange expenses during the quarter. AMG recorded an income tax expense of $9.9 million in Q3 2021 compared to a nominal expense in the same period in 2020. This variance was mainly driven by improvements in operating results coupled with movements in the Brazilian real.

The effects of the Brazilian real caused a $7.5 million non-cash deferred tax expense in the third quarter of 2021 versus a $2.1 million expense in Q3 2020. Movements in the Brazilian real exchange rate impact the valuation of the company's net deferred tax positions related to our operations in Brazil. AMG paid taxes of $4.1 million in Q3 2021 compared to $10.7 million in Q3 2020. The third quarter 2020 payments were primarily a result of final tax payments in Germany related to the highly profitable 2018 tax year.

Turning to page eight of the presentation, you can see that on the top left, cash from operating activities was $17.6 million in Q3 2021, an increase of $26 million over the same period in 2020. Moreover, cash from operating activities was $60.6 million on a year-to-date basis, more than triple the total cash from operating activities for all of 2020. This underscores AMG's continued focus on cash generation, as well as the increased profitability during the first half of 2021. AMG's return on capital employed for Q3 was 10.4% compared to 2.5% for the same period in 2020 due to significantly higher profitability in the current period as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. AMG finished Q3 2021 with $265 million of net debt.

This decrease was mainly due to the additional issuance of shares, which generated $119 million of net proceeds, offset by the significant investment in growth initiatives during the quarter, especially in our vanadium expansion in Ohio. As of September 30th, 2021, AMG had $319 million in restricted cash and total liquidity of $489 million. With this cash on hand and strong projected operating cash flows, AMG believes it can fully fund its current strategic projects while maintaining a strong balance sheet. This concludes my remarks. Eric?

Eric Jackson
COO, AMG

Thank you, Jackson. We continue to focus on those operational issues that we can control, namely cost and productivity improvement, working capital management, and most importantly in today's environment, risk management. The business environment is volatile and challenging. However, prices and demand for our products continues to be strong, driven by our fundamental position in the critical materials and technologies that are necessary for the global transition to a lower carbon economy. In regard to supply chain, we have for many years actively diversified our sourcing to minimize supply chain risks. An example of this diversification is in antimony. Five years ago, we sourced more than 80% of our antimony metal from China. Today, we source from more than five different countries, with less than 20% coming from China. We are, however, experiencing supply chain challenges and cost increases, especially in freight and energy.

We manage each business diligently and pass on these costs where possible. There are timing delays. Our spodumene business continues to operate at full nameplate capacity, and as Dr. Schimmelbusch mentioned, our operating costs are meeting the targets that we set at the time of the project decision. Q3 spodumene shipments were lower than the second quarter due to vessel timing and revenue recognition rules. As Jackson mentioned, our pricing is indexed to the market, but based on a prior period index. Therefore, the recent increase in spodumene prices will be fully recognized in Q1 2022. We believe that the long-term fundamentals of this business are exceptionally strong, and we are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend today and as we increase capacity. Our ferrovanadium spent catalyst processing business continues to perform very well. Ferrovanadium prices have been relatively flat for a number of quarters.

However, the environmental footprint and low-cost position of our recycling business model, as well as our expansion in Ohio, positions us for continued and increasing success. Q3 sales volumes were slightly lower than Q2 as we shipped a higher volume from inventory in Q2. Our Zanesville facility is progressing as planned, and commissioning will start in the first quarter of 2022. The impact of the coronavirus is most significantly felt in AMG Critical Materials Technologies and the market for our aerospace-related businesses. The aerospace market continues to show signs of improvement, and we see this as our customers are forecasting increases in requirements by mid-2022. As a reference, our titanium aluminide product line is presently operating at approximately 50% of capacity. However, based on our customer forecasts, we expect to be operating at full capacity by the end of the second quarter of 2022.

Our operational objectives continue to be to ensure that we're the lowest cost, highest quality producer in all of our businesses, actively manage the challenges and risks in today's volatile markets, and deliver our strategic investments on time and on budget. I would now like to pass the floor to Dr. Heinz Schimmelbusch, AMG's Chief Executive Officer.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

Thank you, Eric. Before I come to our guidance statement, I'd like to discuss CO2 emission and reduction targets. We have applied the Enabling CO2 Reduction concept to measure our anthropogenic CO2 impact and selected AMG activities on levels beyond what is emitted within our fence line. The concept of Enabling CO2 Reduction was brought to prominence through Article 16 of the EU Taxonomy Regulation. In 2020, AMG enabled the reduction of 56.6 million tons of CO2 according to third-party life cycle assessments. AMG manages an intensive process of identifying and adding other CO2-reducing activities to its virtual Enabling CO2 Reduction portfolio segment. We are finalizing goals within a KPI system for the Enabling CO2 Reduction activities as going forward.

Deducting our direct Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions of about 0.4 million tons, we arrive at a net CO2 reduction of 56.2 million tons. Accordingly, AMG CO2 impact in 2020 is net zero, but it's not net zero, but net negative. In addition, we have set KPIs for reducing our direct Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions with a long-term target of net zero. We plan to announce the time horizon and the specifics of this undertaking at the AGM in May 2022. Now let me conclude with our earnings guidance. For 2021, we reiterate our expectation to sequentially improve our EBITDA quarter-over-quarter for the year, which subsequently means we will exceed our previous guidance of more than $ 120 million EBITDA. For 2022, we expect EBITDA to exceed $ 150 million.

We expect to reach $50 million of quarterly run rate EBITDA by the end of 2022 as our vanadium expansion project concludes ramp-up. I would like to point out that being risk-averse as always, we utilized various pricing and cost scenarios during the financial forecasting period over the past several weeks to establish this guidance. Pricing for many of our products have moved dramatically in recent days, and if we were to utilize current prevailing prices for spodumene, just one of our products, we would significantly exceed that 2022 guidance. Given the highly dynamic markets we are experiencing across our businesses, we expect to provide updates to our guidance when appropriate. As announced in May, based on the current strategic project through AMG's portfolio, we expect to deliver an EBITDA level of $ 350 million or more in the next five years or less.

We will update that guidance at the AGM in May 2022. Operator, we would now like to open the floor for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure the mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll take our first question from Frank Claassen with Degroof Peterc am.

Frank Claassen
Senior Equity Analyst, Degroof Petercam

Yes, good afternoon or good morning to you. Question on two questions, please. First, on the vanadium price. I've noticed indeed that the recovery is stalling. What is your view why that is? And have you noticed any news on the anti-dumping investigation front from Vanadium in North America? That's the first question. And secondly, also related, I would say, on your guidance of the quarterly run rate of $50 million by the end of 2022, what kind of assumptions do you have on the vanadium price for it to reach this $50 million?

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

Well, the vanadium price is basically cruising at its 10-year average. When you compare the last five-year average with the previous five-year average, the average of the last five years is significantly higher than the average of the previous 5 years. We assume that the next five-year average will be exceeding the present five-year statement, which I just did, as supply selections, selected closures and delayed, if any, openings of new supplies is not meeting the continuously rising demand as the specific consumption of vanadium per ton of steel is relentlessly going up as an average worldwide. That is one answer. The second answer is we do not specify price assumptions on our guidance.

Frank Claassen
Senior Equity Analyst, Degroof Petercam

Okay. And on the anti-dumping investigation, is there-

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

There's no impact.

Frank Claassen
Senior Equity Analyst, Degroof Petercam

Any mention on that?

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

No impact.

Frank Claassen
Senior Equity Analyst, Degroof Petercam

How can you explain that, why it has come off lately? Is it maybe the China slowdown or is there anything specific to mention on that?

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

It has definitely to do with the China situation, and it is very difficult to analyze that in any meaningful way.

Frank Claassen
Senior Equity Analyst, Degroof Petercam

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Andreas Markou with Berenberg.

Andreas Markou
Research Analyst, Berenberg

Hi, everyone. Thanks very much for the invitation and for taking my questions. Two of them. The first one is on the guidance. Effectively, you alluded that your price assumptions are quite conservative. If we look at the $ 150 million guidance, that looks very conservative because effectively you will be at a $ 140 million run-rate by the end of this year. If we price in the lag in the lithium pricing, that should mean about $ 40 million-$50 million annualized increase in run-rate EBITDA in H1 2022. Maybe you can give us a bit of flavor here of what is really driving this conservatism here. The second one is on the supply chain disruptions.

Can you maybe explain here about the volume effects, the impact here and, you know, how much of it is temporary? Also on the pricing effects. I would be very keen here to understand to what extent you can pass on these price increases. Thank you.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

Yeah. As the guidance, we have also done model discussions like you do. I get it. If we assume that the present lithium price, I would just to mention one, loses its volatility statistically proven in the lithium business, especially in the lithium business. In other words, we are living in a theoretical world and the lithium price, which presently is at $ 1,500, for example, for spodumene. If that is permanently fixed and stays, then we will substantially beat our guidance. As the year proceeds or the quarters proceed, we will then update our guidance as we then experience the absence of volatility. The volatility is a fact. That's the reason of our conservatism.

If I have to give one reason, that's the reason. That's another reason that the general environment as regards to logistics and similar things has led to uncertainties. The absence of volatility should not be built into our guidance because statistically and historically that would be not prudent. We are a conservative institution and we will not chase that.

Andreas Markou
Research Analyst, Berenberg

Okay. That's clear. Maybe a little bit on the second question on the supply chain disruptions and your ability to pass on pricing.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

So far we have. It is also here a very volatile world. Not only by freight costs, but also by availability of freight capacity and by unexpected costs related to demurrage and other costs at the harbors. That is simply something to be cautious about. So far, it has not really had a big impact on us, although we are freight-intensive. We have to prepare for unforeseen events here. That also is guiding us to be cautious.

Andreas Markou
Research Analyst, Berenberg

Effectively, you're telling us that you cannot pass on entirely these costs to your customers.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

Right now we are passing 100% everything.

Andreas Markou
Research Analyst, Berenberg

Okay. You're just being conservative that you will not be able to do it next year.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

No, I'm not saying we will not be able to do it. I just simply am thinking in terms of contingencies. We do this very specifically. We say, what the historical experience is and that is an optimistic result. Things have changed in the last year and are changing now so dramatically that you have to put in certain contingencies. That's simply. I mean, you cannot do a risk-free world. You can extrapolate a risk-free world, which some of our friends in the analyst community do.

Andreas Markou
Research Analyst, Berenberg

Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ephrem Ravi with Citigroup.

Ephrem Ravi
Managing Director, Citi

Thank you. Two questions. First, I totally understand you can't talk about pricing, but can you specify how much of the vanadium production from the Zanesville project is built into the $ 150 million guidance for next year? You know, the volume surely is more under your control than pricing. The second question, there's been new reports of magnesium shortages. Is that affecting your aluminum master alloys business at all, or do you anticipate it to impact that in the future? Thank you.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

Second question first. It doesn't impact us. First question, when you press the button of a $325 million machine, you hope that you reach 100% within a few months. Statistically such things always lead to certain glitches and the ramp-up process is a ramp-up process, and it's not a press-the-button experience. We have a certain assumption on the ramp up over time, and, Eric, we are commissioning, starting the commissioning when?

Eric Jackson
COO, AMG

Yeah. No, we have already commissioned the raw material storage building. We are commissioning the roaster and flue gas desulfurization units to start. The ferroalloy plant commissioning starts in February, and we have assumed, frankly, I think a prudent six-month ramp-up period. You know, there's, as Heinz says, there's obviously, you know, great uncertainties of the largest investment we've ever made, but that's our assumption today.

Ephrem Ravi
Managing Director, Citi

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Martijn den Drijver with ABN AMRO.

Martijn Den Drijver
Industrials Senior Equity Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

Yes. Good morning, gentlemen, or good afternoon. My first question goes back to Cambridge 2. Full contribution as of the fourth quarter, the roaster will be operational before that. You will have some production before going to full contributions. How should we view that? Is that a material amount that we should take into account, or is that not a material amount in 2022? That would be my first question.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

What is a material amount?

Martijn Den Drijver
Industrials Senior Equity Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

Well, if it's more than $5 million, I would say it's material.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

It's more than $5 million.

Martijn Den Drijver
Industrials Senior Equity Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

On the overall assumption for Cambridge 2, given higher energy costs, perhaps shipping as well, do you still see EBITDA contribution for Cambridge 2 as you initially expected, so $ 45 million-$50 million in EBITDA?

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

That's a clear yes.

Martijn Den Drijver
Industrials Senior Equity Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

Okay. On the German conversion lithium plant, can you walk us through where you currently stand in terms of offtake agreements? I know you've said that it's very specific clients take their time to properly assess the lithium specifics. I do see some other players in the European lithium hydroxide space that have been able to sign offtake agreements. Can you perhaps run us through where you stand today? That would be my second question.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

First of all, you always say offtake agreement. The offtake agreement of a production which doesn't happen are not agreements. They are memoranda of understanding, because they are subject to a lot of conditions. Now, we are as regards to our memoranda of understanding approaching 100% sales of the first module, and we will be happy to reach 100% shortly. We are presently maybe at 70%-75% of the with several signed memoranda. They are not agreements in a sense. Agreements or contracts are legally binding and without exits. There's a big difference. You should, if you take advice from me, which is a big question, take into consideration.

I think that the announcements of agreements which indicates the signature under something which is legally binding, these announcements are aggressive. It is in general so that we feel that we shortly will have spoken for 100% of our production in Bitterfeld, Germany, which is to be expected because the demand is very high.

Martijn Den Drijver
Industrials Senior Equity Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

That is certainly encouraging. Does that change your view as to train two? Is that now then perhaps progressing faster towards

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

No, it's progressing as planned.

Martijn Den Drijver
Industrials Senior Equity Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

Completion of the train?

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

It's progressing as planned.

Martijn Den Drijver
Industrials Senior Equity Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

Okay. On engineering, you already provided a couple of details on the order intake. Can you run us through what you're seeing in terms of demand for blade coaters and demand from specialty and metallurgical companies, given that this quarter is a bit lower than what we're used to? It can be a fluke. I know it's volatile, but perhaps you can provide some color on that element.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

Well, the blade coating business is a core business of our engineering division. It is in full capacity mode. We believe that will go on with additional coating orders. I don't want to go into the details of the market, but the market is diversifying. Asia is opening up as regards coating, the coating business because they have to do a catch-up game. Since 100% of the coating of Chinese planes, for example, is happening outside China.

The coating business is strong and is structurally strong because it is fueled in the long term by new materials which have to be coated, such as ceramic materials, which replace, or add to the materials of the engine since the operating temperature of the engine as a function of the desire to increase fuel economy is constantly rising. The community of coaters is targeting a rise of the operating temperature for the reasons cited. This is a very strong business which we presently, I think, have 100% market share.

Martijn Den Drijver
Industrials Senior Equity Analyst, ABN AMRO Bank

Okay, that's it for me. Thank you very much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Stijn Demeester with ING.

Stijn Demeester
Equity Analyst, ING

Yes. Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I have one question which is on lithium results. At the beginning of the call you mentioned that the businesses has reached the OpEx target that was set out a couple of years ago. I always understood that is partly linked to profitability in tantalum as these businesses are intertwined. My question is Brazil today reaching this OpEx target despite the current tantalum price? And how should this pan out next year in case of a likely positive reset of the tantalum price? So maybe any color there on what to expect for both businesses, that would be-

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

In the business mix of Brazil, the tantalum has an insignificant influence compared to the lithium contribution. The tantalum price lately was low. That has to do with amounts being supplied by Central Africa, which is very volatile. The volatility then leads to cyclical upturns and downturns. Presently it's a downturn. We believe and large customers believe that the trend in tantalum is cyclical but upwards as the selection process as also the value chain scrutiny of customers is increasing with regard to difficult sources. Tantalum is not in the new world of Brazil. Lithium is the dominating exercise.

Tantalum is a carryover cost in the product mix scenario.

Stijn Demeester
Equity Analyst, ING

Mm-hmm. I should maybe follow up here. If you look to Spodumene 1+, the 40-kiloton expansion, would it be fair to assume that there's some OpEx savings to be made there because you have a larger scale?

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

We don't assume that. It is fairly straightforward and we don't assume that that is a cost advantage as such as to scale considerations. Both now and it will dramatically increase the profitability, that's for sure, because when you multiply the same profit ratio at 40,000 tons, that is significant. That's a significant number.

Stijn Demeester
Equity Analyst, ING

Okay, understood. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Maarten Verbeek with The IDEA.

Maarten Verbeek
Equity Analyst, The IDEA!

Good afternoon. It's Martin Verbeek of The IDEA. A couple of questions from my side. Firstly, AMG expects a high order intake in Q4 to compensate for the softer intake in Q3, resulting in a normalized full year book-to-bill ratio. What is a normalized book-to-bill ratio according to AMG?

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

One.

Maarten Verbeek
Equity Analyst, The IDEA!

One. That suggests no growth.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

No, no. One is a book-to-bill ratio.

Maarten Verbeek
Equity Analyst, The IDEA!

Mm-hmm. Okay.

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

We don't grow book-to-bill ratios. We want to reach.

Maarten Verbeek
Equity Analyst, The IDEA!

Uh-

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

We want to exceed one. That's all. We don't reach two.

Maarten Verbeek
Equity Analyst, The IDEA!

That would give some clear growth into the future. Okay. Could you also inform us, you're now building the lithium vanadium battery, which will be commissioned in the first quarter of 2022. Could you inform us about investment? What kind of investment is needed to build such a LIVA battery?

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

This is $ 5 million approximately, as a summary answer.

Maarten Verbeek
Equity Analyst, The IDEA!

Okay. Lastly, what was AMG's reasoning to provide an EBITDA outlook for 2022 for next year? Since there are still a lot of question marks, I would have more or less assumed or more logically that you would give a guidance when you present your full year figures of 2021. Has it been related to the consensus of about $ 200 million of the market?

Heinz Schimmelbusch
Chairman of the Management Board and CEO, AMG

Well, we don't. We do our own planning. We have traditionally, I think, in commenting on the third quarter, traditionally we have always remarked our view of what will be 2022 as a year. That was a sort of traditional rhythm of announcement. Nothing new here. We just do what we did last year, and last year we did what we did the previous year. This is a routine. I don't know where you got your information that this is done on a year basis only.

Maarten Verbeek
Equity Analyst, The IDEA!

Okay. Thank you much.

Operator

As a reminder, if you have questions, please dial star one. Our next question comes from Harrison Adewole with Citigroup.

Speaker 12

Hi. I have a follow-up from Ephrem's question earlier. Can you also talk about a little bit on the CapEx outlook in three ways, basically, which is my question. One is for 2021. Given that you have $ 120 million CapEx approval for release. How should we think about CapEx for 2022 and 2023? Just kind of a, you know, broader range rather than expecting point guidance. How should we think about your, you know, steady-state sustaining CapEx as of today and after the expansion of Ohio comes on stream, what would be your sustaining CapEx in the long run?

Jackson Dunckel
CFO, AMG

Thanks for the question. Our previous guidance was $180 million-$200 million for 2021. We would stick to that guidance. It depends on when we pay our suppliers into Cambridge 2. We would also say that that's our guidance for 2022, $180 million-$200 million for 2022. That includes the end of Cambridge 2 as well as a significant portion of our lithium hydroxide expenditures. For 2023, we'll leave that one aside till a little later. Maintenance CapEx for us today is in the $25 million-$30 million range. In the future, that probably increases to $35 million-$40 million.

Speaker 12

Okay, thanks a lot.

Operator

That concludes today's question and answer session. Ms. Fisher, I'll turn the call back over to you for any additional or closing remarks.

Michele Fischer
VP of Investor Relations, AMG

Thanks, everyone for joining the call. This concludes AMG's Third Quarter 2021 Conference Call.

Operator

Thank you for your participation. This now concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect.

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