ForFarmers N.V. (AMS:FFARM)
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Apr 28, 2026, 5:37 PM CET
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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Aug 11, 2022

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the presentation for ForFarmers' half year results 2022. Please note this conference is being recorded, and for the duration of the call your lines will be on listen only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the presentation. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. I will hand over to your host, Caroline Vogelzang, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Caroline Vogelzang
Director of Investor Relations, ForFarmers

Thank you, Stefano, and good morning all. We're here again to present to you the first half results of 2022. Sorry, I see a mail coming. I'm here with our new CEO, Chris Deen, our CFO, Roeland Tjebbes, whom you all know and have met previously, and Pieter Wolleswinkel, who joined our executive board in April last, and as you all know is responsible for ForFarmers in the Netherlands and in Belgium. We published our interim results in our press release this morning, as well as the presentation, which we will lead you through during our in proper English.

We also would like to point out the disclaimer statement, which is on slide two of the presentation, which we all do, or always do, in which we state that all forward-looking statements are done based on the knowledge that we have today. We all know that tomorrow the world could look really differently. The audio webcast will be taped, and we will post the webcast later on our site. We would like to also point out that we'll do the presentation and afterwards, there will be an opportunity to ask questions about the explanation on the first half results. With that, I would like to pass the floor to Chris.

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

Thank you, Caroline. Good morning all. Thanks for joining us on this audio webcast. Now you see here the agenda. We had some trouble with the sound last meeting. If there's any problem, how do we manage? Can you hear us well?

Caroline Vogelzang
Director of Investor Relations, ForFarmers

Well, if anybody because all of you who are on the line, I can see that you're on the line. If you have a problem with listening or with hearing, please let us know either through mail. I can see that Deen is popping up to probably speak. Deen, send me a mail whether you can hear, okay?

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

Okay. Well, thank you. The agenda for today, first myself on highlights 2022 first half market developments. Roeland will take you through the financial results. Then I'll close with the recent developments on 2Agriculture, the joint venture in the U.K., some comments and the outlook on. The questions at the end. Next slide, you see, if that's correct, you see a photo of myself. I hope we'll meet in person soon. I started July 1st, succeeding, well, first Roeland for his interim period when he took over from Yoram Knoop who left us, somewhere in the beginning of the year in April. Next slide please. There, there's two slides on highlights and developments in markets.

This is the first one. Highlights. I went from top to bottom. Now I'll go from left to right, Caroline. First of all, left top. Of course, the war in Ukraine, which is well a disaster of course for human drama. But also, I tell you nothing new, that everything in the market has been very volatile, increasing prices, even raw materials that were not available, all troubles that we have all seen. Spiking prices in really all our categories and especially also in energy.

Following that, prices in retail, Netherlands, but also in out of home have been rising for milk, eggs, meat, with some, well, around 10%-15% increases. We still see this is a recurring theme in these businesses at this moment, that the pig farmers are struggling, yeah. Both in Netherlands, in Belgium, in Germany. They're not able to cover costs, so they get in financial trouble. Well, this is a recurring theme throughout the whole presentation. I think this is an important part of the volume drop that we see in the first half. Okay, one block to the right in the green, in the green one.

Higher raw material prices, as you've seen in Q1, that this was a struggle on passing this through into the market. In Q2, we were able to, and that's why also we sent this, the positive profit warning a couple of weeks ago, that we were able to pass on those costs into the market. That's the main explanation of the big swing between Q1 and Q2. Top right, total feed volume fell by nearly 8%. This is, like I said, mainly caused by the weak performance in the pig sector.

Fortunately, the ruminant sector in Netherlands, which is big and important for us, was stable more or less. We grew in Poland due to the circumstances there. We'll get back to that. Gross profit up 18.3%. You've already seen it, I think, already commented on it also. We saw some reports from your end. Underlying EBITDA up, and Roeland will get back to that in more detail. Left bottom, you're all aware, I think, of the big pressure on agricultural sector. I need to practice that word more. To reduce emissions. The whole nitrogen discussion in Netherlands, big debate, which is big polarization in the country. You're probably more than aware, at least if you're based in the Netherlands.

We see the solution through innovation and partnerships, and not so much in just cutting herds and bringing back the number of animals. The green block. Under the sustainability, greenhouse gas is okay. Going down in production, stable for logistics. LTI is down, which is very important. Safety first, in this company. Feed safety incidents is a minor internal thing that we have to report for mandatory reasons. Right corner. Pieter appointed to the executive board as a strategy director, you're already aware. Two important points, I think, and we'll get back to the second point on the joint venture.

We're quite enthusiastic that we are able to work together in a joint venture with 2Agriculture. We'll get back to that at the end of the presentation with some more details. We're in the midst of the review of our strategy, the Build to Grow strategy that was launched a couple years ago. We're revising this, studying it, lots of work done. We need some time to conclude on that. Especially myself also, I need some time to conclude on that. We'll get back to you in Q4 with the outcomes. The next slide, please. Developments in markets. Netherlands nitrogen debate, we covered that.

The shrinking of the pig herd, this is something happening in the Netherlands, in Belgium and in Germany, for several reasons. For the, so how do you say?

Caroline Vogelzang
Director of Investor Relations, ForFarmers

Farm restructuring.

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

The farm restructuring from a government with government money, what's happening, and the bad situation in the sector. Very low prices for the meat. Some flu outbreak in the east of the Netherlands, but it was pretty much contained with not a very big issue. We had some cases. Increasing demand for welfare concepts in broilers. As we see that, especially in the Netherlands, but in more countries coming up, which is an important movement into a better life for the animals, of course. But it gives us somewhat downward pressure on volumes because there's less animals per square meter.

The use of PAPs in poultry, so the processed animal protein, which is now allowed in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. That's important. If we turn to Belgium, they're also the same thing as in the Netherlands. The buying out of the farmers for the nitrogen debate. Reudink, the second point is the biological project products. We obtained the EU derogation to use some conventional protein sources due to the sourcing issues in Ukraine, which is good. Actually, Reudink is more in the Netherlands than in Belgium, but didn't simply fit into the box. There's too much happening. Germany, left corner. Some swine flu cases, but also there, fortunately well contained.

There were one or two cases, but this has not led to big problems. Pig farmers has said quitting due to low profitability. Robotic milking is growing in the dairy sector. The use of PAPs is mentioned. Poland, of course, major impact on refugees in Poland as an impact of the Ukraine war. Ukraine not being able to export poultry products. This is an advantage for the Polish poultry market. The U.K. is the last country out of the EU. There, a new government rules and plans on sustainability. Huge labor shortages, drivers and abattoirs due to Brexit and COVID, and layer farms squeezed in pricing. That's for now as an overview. Roeland, I would like to pass on over to you.

Roeland Tjebbes
CFO, ForFarmers

Yeah, thank you, Chris. Also good morning from my side. As always, I will try to guide you through the financial slides. I will start with the underlying EBITDA developments. As you are aware, we always start with underlying results. So without the incidentals and exceptionals, we will have a slide on these items later in the deck. As you can see on the slide, we try to do the analysis on three different levels. That is on the foreign exchange, FX, which is limited this half year. We look at the effects of M&A.

Now last year we acquired both De Hoop and Mühldorfer, and we always contribute 12 months for M&A effects, and then it's a running business again. Only in this half year, the Mühldorfer and De Hoop accounts for only one month, so that's why the effect is quite limited. What's left is the autonomous effects of the like-for-like effects, and I will put on the screen try to explain those elements. Looking at the total feed and compound feed, you will see that they are more or less down by 7%-8%. Both are going down, both the total feed and the compound feed.

That means that our byproducts, the DML products, dry, moisture, and liquid products, the products we buy, especially predominantly from the food sector, which we trade in, are more or less stable in the first half of this year. Compound feeds in total went down autonomously with 8%, and with more. Like, Chris was already telling that the biggest downtrend was in pigs. We had one restructuring and the stoppers arrangement in the Netherlands, which of course has an impact. We see that there's financial distress with a lot of pig farmers throughout Europe and that made farmers to stop. We see the effect of the loss of a client.

Last year, we lost a client, a big client in the U.K. . It was deliberately that we lost a client, but it's still of course in the half year figures of last year. That's why, compared to last year we are going down. Ruminants volumes are quite stable, a bit down, but stable in the Netherlands and a bit down in the other countries. More or less in line with the market and poultry volume, good to mention that we see a good progress again in Poland. Like Chris already said, we see that because of the Ukraine crisis, less export out of the Ukraine and the Polish industry is picking that part up.

That's what we see as well that our volumes of poultry in Poland are growing. The gross profit is up with EUR 40 million. That's about in autonomous terms about 17% or a bit higher. All to do of course with passing on the higher raw materials and energy costs. As we explained in Q1, we had some difficulties passing it through and Q2 was much better. Why did we need to increase these prices? Not only for raw materials, but also for energy. That, excuse me, that's why you can see that the operating expenses went up with EUR 38 million. That's about 19%. That is predominantly the energy cost. That's electricity, it's gas, and it's just fuel.

We see that we had to make an addition to our provision for bad debt. We are quite prudent there, and we foresee that there could be some difficulties given all the uncertainties going forward. That's why we added EUR 2.4 million to our provision for bad debt. The other item for the higher operating expenses is the higher cost for labor. We see wage inflation which took place in the first half compared to last year. Although we managed again to lower our FTEs, if you look at the total cost for employees, it went up because of this higher inflation on wages.

If you put it all together, then you will see that our EBITDA ends up with EUR 43.1 million, which is like-for-like a 5% increase. Be aware, last year we had unfavorable contracts in Germany which cost us EUR 4 million. If you take that out, you will see that our EBITDA is a bit down compared to last year. It's also good to highlight that if you look at our margin, our EBITDA margin, of course, is a bit down compared to last year. It has to do with the inflated revenues, and if you would correct for that, you will see that we are a bit better than the year before.

On the next slide, we will look at the profit development, so a bit further down our P&L, and I will point out some of the items. As you can see, and maybe already have seen, in the press release, our working capital has been growing and, because of higher working capital, and especially because of the higher raw materials. We also have higher debt, and higher debt leads to higher interest costs. So that's why our net finance result is a bit up compared to last year. The share of profit of equity accounted investees, you are aware that is our 50/50 joint venture with HaBeMa in Germany. More or less back to normal levels, I would say.

We saw that there was some less, fewer ton shipment activities, and that's why the result is a bit down compared to last year. Looking at the income tax expenses, basically two effects. One is a prior year adjustment in the U.K., which was unforeseen, and the other one is that we had non-deductible costs also relating to M&A. That's why our tax expenses are a bit up compared to last year. Underlying profit bit down because of the effects just mentioned. In essence, higher EBITDA, higher EBIT. Because of the finance result and the tax expenses, lower underlying profit. As you might have seen, the APM items, the incidental items are a bit lower than last year.

That's why the profit for the period is higher than the year before. The profit ratios. As you can see, the underlying earnings per share are the same, EUR 0.19. Lower results, like I said, underlying our result is lower, but we had a share buyback program. And that's why also the number of shares is lower, and that's why our EPS is at the same level. As mentioned, especially in the U.K., where we saw because of the higher raw materials, capital employed went up, leading to lower return on EBITDA and EBIT. Looking at the capital structure, starting with the equity.

Equity is down with EUR 70 million, basically, four effects over there. One is the addition to the result of EUR 11 million, which is of course leading to higher equity. As you are aware, every twice a year, we do the remeasurement of our pension funds. In the U.K., a big amount was added, EUR 13 million, because of higher interest rates, which is leading to lower obligations. That's why we have a positive effect on equity. This is, as you are aware, not leading to any P&L effects or cash effects. This is just bookkeeping, but it increases our equity. There are two trends on lowering the equity. One is, of course, the payment of the dividend, which is EUR 26.3 million.

We had the share buyback program which we stopped in Q1 of EUR 70 million which is in this year. That's all leading to the lower equity of EUR 70 million. The solvency ratio is a bit down because of the higher total assets, which is higher because of the higher working capital. Now, working capital, as you can see, on this graph on this slide, is EUR 42 million higher. Two effects. One, higher because of the higher raw materials. Two, we see that for some of our clients, they negotiate longer payment terms. That's why our DSO, our days sales outstanding, is a bit higher. Also has to do with the growth in Poland.

Poland, by definition, has lower payment terms than the other countries we're in. That's why we see this increase in working capital. Despite all the turmoil our clients are in, we are able to keep good track on our overdues. Our ratio of overdues receivables declined. It's 10.6%. Be aware, it was about 17 or 18% a couple of years ago. This is still good work by our sales departments and credit controls. Because of the higher working capital and the share buyback program, you will see that our net debt increased since the end of last year. If you would compare it to, this is compared to the 31st of December.

If you compare it to the 30th of June last year, the effect is a bit lower. Last year, the net debt was about EUR 45 million at this time. Cash flow development, not much to mention anymore, as we talked about the working capital. Maybe good to look at the investing activities. Last year, we had Mühldorfer and De Hoop. This year, no acquisition has been done. And that's why the number is a bit lower. Basically, what you see in this line is our regular CapEx, our capital expenditures, and that's why the number is lower than the year before. The incidental items, the exceptionals, the APMs, the alternative performance measures, is more balanced, I would say, than the year before.

Last year, we had quite a lot of items. Now we only have a couple, and I will pick out the biggest one. There are basically only two or three. As you are aware, we divide it in impairments, business combinations, divestments, restructuring and other. In the column, business combinations and divestments are two items, which we always take into account as a PM item. First one being the one on EBIT, the EUR 4.2 million. Has to do with the amortization of acquired intangible assets. If we buy a company, we need to value the clients and we amortize on that, and that's what you see over here. That's the same, more or less, basically the same number as last year for this element.

The other one is the option of Tasomix. It's on the net financing result. This is also a normal one. Now compared to last year on the restructuring, that's the next column, you can see it's only below EUR 1 million. Last year it was a bit more, and this is to do with the implementation of efficiency programs, sometimes comes at a cost. In total it's EUR 6 million, whereas last year it was EUR 7.5 million. The last three slides are clusters. You will see the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Germany, and the last cluster is the U.K.. In the cluster, the Netherlands, Belgium, we see a decline of 8% on volume. Again, especially on the pig side, both in the Netherlands and Belgium. We see declining herds.

We see the stock as an effect of the stoppers arrangement around restructuring and the pressure on our clients when it comes to the pig industry. There are still over capacity and overproduction in Western Europe because of the closure of China as a result of the African swine fever in Germany. That's why we see a lot of people stopping their business. On dairy, yeah, like we said, it's quite stable. As you see that both Reudink and Pavo, we sometimes tend to forget and to stipulate that, but Pavo and Reudink, our biological operation and our horse feed operation, Pavo contributes quite nicely with higher volumes.

Gross profit for this cluster went up with 11%, which is EUR 60 million if you do the math. It's not enough because the operational expenditures increased with EUR 21 million. The higher energy and the higher cost for energy, basically electricity and gas and fuel, was higher than the increase in gross profit. That's why our EBITDA for this cluster is down compared to last year. Looking at the ROCE, the ROACE, the return on average capital employed for both EBITDA and EBIT for this cluster is at a very acceptable level. Germany and Poland, a mixed bag when we look at the feed volumes. On the one hand side, we see declining volumes for the pig farmers, and they are stopping their business.

On the other hand, you see increased volume in Poland in the poultry sector because of the higher demand. In total, you will see that the total feed volume is down with 8%. Looking at gross profits, be aware last year we had this loss of EUR 4 million of the unfavorable contracts, which is in here. That's of course also leading to higher gross profits in 2022 first half with EUR 14 million higher. That's also the reason why you can see that the ROCE increased quite strongly from 0.3% of EBIT last year to 7.7% this year. Our last cluster is the cluster in the United Kingdom.

From the three clusters, the one with the smallest decline in volume, in total feed volume, it's 4.5% down, but it's down for all species. Last year, again, we had this big client in the U.K. on pigs, which we lost. That of course is not helping this number. We saw that in ruminants, it was difficult to pass on higher raw materials. Don't forget, in the first quarter was still a lot of COVID regulation floating around, and that's why it was hard for us to pass on all raw materials to our clients, and that's why we had some customer loss over there. Gross profit went up with EUR 9 million.

The underlying expenses again, because of higher energy and fuel, was up EUR 10 million. There's EUR 1 million difference, and that's the main driver for the lower EBITDA for this cluster. That is the highlights of the results of the first half 2022 of ForFarmers. With that, Chris, I would like to hand it over to you again.

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

Hey, Roeland, thank you very much. Is the sound still good? Just checking. No complaints? No. Okay, good. We would like to talk a little bit about 2Agriculture and ForFarmers. We've been announcing this joint venture on July first, and we're quite enthusiastic about that. I know there's been comments, what do we do with U.K.? This is what we think is best for U.K.. A lot of hard work has been going into this joint venture not always easy, but we think this is the best way forward. Still under Competition and Markets Authority approval, so not yet final. If we go to the next slide, a little bit of background of why this would be good.

For us, ForFarmers, this is a stronger position in the promising poultry sector. Like we made a couple of other investments in the last couple of years because we believe this sector is a growing sector within the meat sector. 2Agriculture and of course the synergies, we get to that. 2Agriculture to get more exposure to other species and share the investment opportunities. What we do in effect is create synergies around geographies, species, expertise and customer base. As the U.K. Is of course a big country, transportation costs are high, this will help us in achieving a more efficient operation together with focusing more on the poultry sector.

I said still pending approval for U.K. Competition and Markets Authority, CMA. We're currently in the phase of answering questions to the CMA and when that's done they will take a certain period of time to come to a conclusion. For the time being we operate separately, of course. Next slide, who is Huuskes Agriculture. You can read this faster than I can speak. An important player in the market, linked to 2 Sisters. This is the largest customer to them. Of course, on a European level also important, as already pointed out. With extensive experience, a large feed range around broiler breeder, layer, duck and turkey feed.

Mostly into this integrated poultry market. We go to the next slide, please. Five mills, 250 people, fleet of own vehicles for transportation. We think this. It fits very well in the combination. This is about Huuskes Agriculture. We're quite enthusiastic about this, still operating separately and we look forward to a positive notification by the CMA. On general market outlook, you're all aware, I think we are in a highly volatile market on raw materials, on energies, on geopolitics, on Ukraine. There's many uncertainties. We see inflation going up, consumer confidence down, disposable income down. Lots of things happening.

Pressure on the sector, of course, the nitrogen debate, but also more EU regulations on. Yes, I see.

Caroline Vogelzang
Director of Investor Relations, ForFarmers

Manure.

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

On manure. Thank you. What happened to us, what's happening now, the drought in the Netherlands leading to extremely low water levels. As you are aware, our transportation into the mills is on water, by ship. This gives us extra troubles and extra cost on getting our raw materials in. In view of those uncertainties, we refrain from issuing guidance on the results in the second half year, as simply put, all those elements, there's too much volatility and too much uncertainty to say anything sensible. That's so far for the presentation. I'll hand back to Caroline and up for the questions I think.

Caroline Vogelzang
Director of Investor Relations, ForFarmers

Yeah. Thank you, Chris. Any of you who have any additional questions, please.

Star one.

Star one. Yeah, press star one. That, that's what I was looking for. Thanks, Marloes Roetgering. Press star one, and then Stefano will put you through. Thanks.

Operator

The first question comes from the line of Daan Arends of Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.

Daan Arends
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Hi, good morning. Three questions from my end. Maybe firstly on the nitrogen crisis. I understand that

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

Could you say who is it please?

Caroline Vogelzang
Director of Investor Relations, ForFarmers

Daan Arends.

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

Great. Hi, Daan.

Daan Arends
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. Hi, good morning. Yeah, on the nitrogen crisis. I understand that you would prefer a future where these nitrogen reduction targets are met through innovation rather than herd size reductions. For now, both the Dutch and also the Belgian government seem to be sticking to their herd size reduction targets. Can you explain a little bit what your planning assumptions are going forward from a strategic perspective in a sense? Are you working towards a future where herd size are 3% smaller or are you still hoping that that will not materialize? And what levers do you think you can pull to keep profitability up if herd sizes do reduce by such an amount? That's the first question.

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

Thank you. Thank you, Daan. Of course, we don't stick our heads into the ground. We

Estimate that the herd sizes will drop. So one thing is what we take into our models calculating the future and also strategically, this is part of the strategy review, of course. We don't stick our heads into the ground. On the other hand, we still want to fight for a better solution than the governments are currently proposing. Maybe, Pieter, you can elaborate a little bit on how you look at the situation going forward.

Pieter Wolleswinkel
Executive Board Member and COO, ForFarmers

Yeah, sure, Chris. Thanks for that. Well, indeed. Yeah, I think let's not be naive. It is very likely that the Dutch herd sizes will go down. We just don't know to what extent. Let's also be very clear that it is not clear at this point in time. There's still a lot of work to do by the Dutch provinces that need to look how to implement the guidance from The Hague. But also if we look at the current situation at The Hague, we already see that they realize that their, let's call it ambition, how they express this, is impossible to execute, especially on a short notice.

With that, we do foresee some decline, but not to the extent as we every now and then hear it in the Dutch newspaper. If we go back to your second question, if you end up in a market that is in decline, how do you deal with that? It is quite clear if you look at the structure as we have it with trucks and factory, that is a major important part to manage, partly by increasing market share, making sure that we win volumes to stay up in the market. As an example, we, by the acquisition of De Hoop, strengthened our position for the welfare concepts in the Dutch market. That helps.

That is one step, look at it organically. Secondly, if we look at partnerships, that has always been a strength of the company to set up relations with other compound feed parties or not directly via M&A. That can be, but does not necessarily need to be, the situation. But via toll mill agreements where we produce for other parties or other parties produce for us, that is also a way to deal with our OpEx in this situation. With that, we are quite comfortable to have a very healthy business in the Netherlands. Obviously that is a thing that comes back in the strategy as Chris also elaborated on. Does it answer your question, Daan?

Daan Arends
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah. Thanks. I think that's pretty clear. Maybe secondly, since the start of H2, we've seen gas prices trending up again. If I'm correct, your main source of powering the mills is gas. Are you hedged now going into H2, or is that something we need to be concerned about? Maybe as a first question, tangibly related, can you give a bit of color on the pricing developments we've seen into H2 because it looks like some agricultural input commodity prices are coming down. Does this mean that you have more leeway for pricing, and how comfortable are you with that going into H2? Thanks.

Pieter Wolleswinkel
Executive Board Member and COO, ForFarmers

Yes.

Roeland Tjebbes
CFO, ForFarmers

Yeah, I will start. Thank you, Daan, for your question. You are aware last year we discussed it a bit also in this community that we were not able to pass on the higher raw materials, but also on a higher energy cost. Since then, indeed, we amended our policies. Basically, we have looked at hedging again, but it goes too far for this group. Also, we know that our competitors are listening as well to talk in depth about our hedging policies. Indeed, we amended our policy so that we are better equipped to deal with prices going forward.

The second question on raw materials, Pieter will take.

Pieter Wolleswinkel
Executive Board Member and COO, ForFarmers

Yeah. We've seen, as of early July, some relief in the commodity prices, especially on the grains. On the other hand, we still see the soy, as an example, and, in general, the proteins are still at extremely high levels, but also the grains are still at levels that are unprecedented. Feed as a whole, it's still at extremely high prices and some relief has come back in depth. One thing is what we know is that we are in a world that is so unbelievably volatile that tomorrow things can be different. The same can be said about energy prices that go up and down, with fluctuations that we did not see until end of last year.

The same can be said about the commodities. For us, working according to the policy at this point in time is vital, and we are confident about that we can manage the current situation. It is extremely difficult to give a forecast on commodity price developments.

Daan Arends
Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Thank you. That's clear and understandable.

Roeland Tjebbes
CFO, ForFarmers

Okay. Thank you, Daan.

Operator

The next question.

Any other questions?

The next question comes on the line of Guy Sips from KBC Securities. Please go ahead.

Guy Sips
Senior Equity Analyst, KBC Securities

This first question is related to the low water levels in the Netherlands. Can you give us some indication what was the effect in 2018 of this on your results? Do you expect it to be in the same range now? The second question is on the indication of the review of the Build to Grow 2025 strategy. Has that to do that the new CEO is not comfortable with the current status of this strategy? Or what is the main reasoning behind that? Thank you.

Pieter Wolleswinkel
Executive Board Member and COO, ForFarmers

Maybe I can pick up your first.

Yeah

Question. On the situation 2018, we've been transparent on that one. Of course, we're approximately about EUR 2 million. If we look at the current situation, we cannot exclude that these costs will come to us as well. It's still early phase to see how it develops. We don't foresee that there will be true supply chain issues. We are comfortable that we can get the factories running and deliver our farmers. Obviously we are preparing for alternatives with truck transport, as an example. We are, I would say, clearly in control, but have a concern about the cost development.

One of the reasons why we don't talk about a guidance today. We need to see how this will develop over the coming weeks and months. I think the second question on the strategy.

Yeah

Chris can take care.

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

Okay. Yeah, of course. On the strategy, this was, as you know, already started before I entered, but I think with good reason. I think the main reason being that the world around us has changed rapidly, and then we see proof that in the last this half year. It's a wise thing to rethink. Well, it will not be a totally new strategy and that we will be selling different products or so. It's good with the changing environments that we review the current strategy. Does that answer your question?

Guy Sips
Senior Equity Analyst, KBC Securities

Quite.

Not fully, of course, I understand. We cannot speak in all detail about it.

Pieter Wolleswinkel
Executive Board Member and COO, ForFarmers

Yeah.

Chris Deen
CEO, ForFarmers

Yeah

Pieter Wolleswinkel
Executive Board Member and COO, ForFarmers

In addition to that, the reasoning behind the stopping of the share buyback, given your healthy financial structure, is that yeah also related to that, or is that yeah more related to yeah the general market outlook?

Roeland Tjebbes
CFO, ForFarmers

Yeah, it's both. General outlook as we see it is quite volatile. Like we said, also Q1 already, it's better to sit on some money going forward, or at least on some headroom going forward. Like you are aware, our capital allocation is that we also still want to do M&A. Yeah, you have seen that our debt has been increasing. Our EBITDA, if you take it rolling, it has been decreasing compared to the last year. That means that there's less leverage. That's why we stopped the share buyback. Given the uncertainties going forward, we'll look at it towards Q3 again and Q4.

For now we stopped it. That has to do indeed with the market we're in, but also with the strategy and our capital allocation going forward in that strategy. For now, we will yeah refrain from any elements on when and if we will start the share buyback program again.

Pieter Wolleswinkel
Executive Board Member and COO, ForFarmers

Okay. Thank you.

Roeland Tjebbes
CFO, ForFarmers

Thanks. Any other questions?

Operator

The next question comes in on the line of Margaret Crowe from Instone Group. Please go ahead.

Margaret Crowe
Analyst, Instone Group

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two questions. One is about forage levels, because you note in the press release that forage levels are low. They're particularly low, I think, in the south of the U.K at the moment. I'm wondering what the implications of that would be, with regards to feed demand in the second half of the year. The second question is broader and going back to your preference for innovation within the pig industry in the Netherlands as an approach to reduction of nitrate. What particular types of innovation would you recommend? Thank you.

Roeland Tjebbes
CFO, ForFarmers

Yeah. I will try to answer your first question on forage. What you tend to see is that the quality of forage is, of course, leading a leading element, especially the ruminant sector, for the quality and magnitude of our compound feed.

If the quality is low, you basically change your recipe in order to make sure that ruminants are still healthy and that milk production is at decent levels. Given the drought we are seeing in several countries we're in, the quality of the forage is not of the best and it could very well be that we need to look at compound feed levels going forward for that matter. It could be that there's an impact there. It's depending also on of course on other macroeconomic elements on pricing and what can the farmer earn, yes or no, and will he use his own forage to the full extent, yes or no.

It also depending on that. You're right, the quality of forage is indeed at a lower level at the moment. Your question on innovation of pigs, I think that's a question for Pieter Wolleswinkel.

Pieter Wolleswinkel
Executive Board Member and COO, ForFarmers

That is right. If you talk about the nitrogen situation, we also need to be clear that pig is one of the species that is, let's say, involved in the discussion. Especially the dairy industry is strongly looking at that. We see three pillars that where innovation can support this dossier. First, if you look at the barns. If you can, as we call it, wash the air that comes out of the barns, you can work on that. That is in the pig industry already quite a common innovation that is in place. Especially in the dairy industry and a company that is that got much attention for that is Lely.

That worked on a machine that can kind of absorb the nitrogen coming out of a dairy barn. That is one. Secondly, especially applicable for also the dairy farm, it is how do you apply the manure on the fields. If you do that in particular, with particular techniques, you can also lower the emission. Thirdly, that is also very important for a company like ForFarmers, is that we try to reduce the protein levels and with protein nitrogen levels in the feed. This is, and that is I would say the sad part of this story. That is already what we explained in 2019 in a very structured way with a lot of commitment from the farmers' community, how we called it agricultural collective.

We see also over the past month that this agenda is getting more traction, also more traction in The Hague. We will emphasize strongly on this part where we can to make sure that gets high on the agenda because we believe it is the most cost-effective way to deal with the situation as we currently have it in the Netherlands.

Margaret Crowe
Analyst, Instone Group

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Christophe again of Kempen. Please go ahead.

Christophe Beghin
Senior Associate, Kempen

Yes. Good morning, everyone. I have a broader question as a follow-up on what Roeland has stated. I understand you refrain from more guidance and strategy update until Chris is up to speed and you have broad review on what direction the company should go into. As ForFarmers is experiencing already as the market leader across Europe, a steep decline in volumes, I can assume that smaller companies are facing maybe similar or even worse levels. You still have the ability to play with the plans you have and optimize them, maybe production capacity, but others do not have that. Do you see more smaller companies coming to ForFarmers to potentially being acquired, or how did that evolve in the last six months?

Roeland Tjebbes
CFO, ForFarmers

Yeah, thank you for your question there, Christophe. I think, yeah, we discussed it, I think over the last couple of years, that is what you tend to see is that in the industry, a lot of consolidation is taking place. You are aware, last year we bought De Hoop, and we also read that Koppert was sold to De Heus. There is dynamics in the market. To be honest, it's not that every company is knocking on our door.

You're right, I think going forward with declining volumes and especially with the also on the nitrogen discussion, there will be more opportunities and more ability in the consolidation play, not only for ourselves and our bigger competitors. You also see that some of the co-ops, the cooperatives are working much more closer together. ZLZ said both or joined forces with a, what's Ambitious, with another cooperative. You see indeed that consolidation is taking place. It might very well be that we will look at that as well.

You are aware that we are market leader in the Netherlands, and we only look at specific niches in the market or places where we are not very present. We will not go after every acquisition in the Netherlands.

Christophe Beghin
Senior Associate, Kempen

Okay. That's clear. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions on the line.

Caroline Vogelzang
Director of Investor Relations, ForFarmers

Thank you, Stefano. Thanks to all the analysts on the call. As I know, you will be able to find me should any questions pop up. Thank you for joining us, and hope to speak to you all soon again. Have a great day.

Roeland Tjebbes
CFO, ForFarmers

Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

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