IMCD N.V. (AMS:IMCD)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 25, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for holding, and welcome to the full year 2021 results analyst call of IMCD. During the presentation, all participants are in listen only mode, and later we will conduct a question and answer session. I would like to hand over the conference to Mr. Piet van der Slikke. Go ahead, please, sir.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yes. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to this call. As usual, I'm here with Hans Kooijmans, CFO. I will start with some opening remarks and then Hans will take over. After that, of course, we will be happy to answer your questions. As you could have seen from the press release, 2021 was an excellent year for IMCD with a record result. Our EBITDA increased with 54% and our cash earnings per share with 53%. We saw very healthy business activities in all regions and our growth came from increased demand, so volume growth, increased pricing, new product lines that we started and acquisitions. I want to emphasize that other than what some people write, it's not only price increase, it's also and predominantly volume growth.

It's gratifying to see that we, despite travel restrictions because of COVID, we're also able to continue to execute our strategy by doing acquisitions. I won't mention all acquisitions, but want to emphasize our acquisitions in Mexico, Central America, China and Indonesia. To give you some color, in Indonesia, we are now a leader in life science with a few hundred people working in pharma, food ingredients and personal care. At the same time, in Indonesia, we are expanding our industrial segments. In a country with 275 million people, this will give us very good growth opportunities. In Latin America and in China, we are also making great progress. Our presence in Latin America has been very much expanded due to acquisitions in Mexico, Central America and Colombia.

We announced last week another acquisition in this region, and we have, therefore, also very high expectations on further growth. You may have noticed that Q4 of 2021 showed very strong growth, 30% increase in revenue and 55% in EBITDA. Order intake in this quarter remained also very high. In preparation for delivery in Q1 of this year, we had to build up our stock position, which consequently explains our lower than usual cash conversion. In the end, this is positive news as it means that demand remains high, which will lead to continued strong growth in Q1. I repeat what I've said before, IMCD's future looks bright as our business model is robust and resilient, and we are therefore also quite optimistic about the outcome of 2022.

With that, I would like to hand over to Hans to lead you through a few numbers.

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

Thank you, Piet. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Earlier today, we published our full year results in the form of a short press release, and we further published our annual report, a good readable and informative document about various aspects of IMCD's business model, including a lot of details about our financial performance.

In this call, I will limit myself to a summary of the 2021 numbers, whereby I will start on page 10 of the presentation, where you will see FX-adjusted revenue increase of 25% and a gross profit increase of 30%. The increase in gross profit was a combination of 21% organic growth and 9% as a result of the first time inclusion of acquisitions. The acquisition growth is the balance of the full year impact of acquisitions done in 2020, like Signet in India and more recent acquisitions in India.

For an overview of the 2021 acquisitions, I would like to refer to page seven and eight of this presentation. Gross profit as a percentage of revenue increased by one percentage point to 24.3% in 2021. All regions contributed to the margin growth and the improved gross margin percentage. The increase in margin percentage is the result of gross margin improvement initiatives, the usual changes in local market circumstances, product mix fluctuations and the impact of the newly acquired businesses. For your convenience, we included a line with an operating EBITDA comparison. But as you know, IMCD is a people organization with an asset light business model with outsourced logistics and a low fixed asset base. As a consequence, EBITDA development shown in the next line seems more relevant for us.

Operating EBITDA increased 55% on a constant currency basis to EUR 374 million. This increase was a combination of 35% organic growth and 20% as a result of the first time inclusion of acquisitions. Operating EBITDA as a percentage of revenue increased by 2.1 percentage points from 8.8% to 10.9% in 2021. The conversion margin, calculated as operating EBITDA as a percentage of gross profit, increased from 37.6% last year to 44.7% in 2021. The increase in conversion margin is the result of substantial organic EBITDA growth, whereby gross profit growth more than compensated for cost growth. This combined with a positive impact of acquisitions made. On the next slide, page 11, you will find a few key figures from the P&Ls per operating segment.

Gross profit in EMEA, in the first column, increased 22%, which is a combination of 20% organic and 2% acquisition growth. 2021 gross margin percentage increased with 0.3 percentage points to 25.7%. Operating EBITDA in EMEA increased 39%, whereby the EBITDA margin increased with 1.4 percentage points to 11.3%. Most of this EBITDA growth is organic. Gross margin in the Americas, in the next column, increased 26%, which is a combination of 21% organic and 5% M&A-related. Margin growth, combined with disciplined cost control, resulted in further growth of EBITDA, a 36% increase in EBITDA and conversion margin, both increased with respectively 1 and 3 percentage points. Asia Pacific, who had another good year, whereby they realized 61% gross profit growth.

This was a combination of 19% organic and 42% as a result of acquisitions. Gross margin increased, gross margin percentage increased from 21.1% last year to 24.4% in 2021. Operating EBITDA more than doubled to EUR 110 million, whereby EBITDA margin increased to 15.4% and conversion margins further improved. The improvement of EBITDA conversion margin is the result of higher gross margins offsetting higher own costs. In addition, the addition of the acquisition of Signet in November 2020 had a positive impact on the development of the conversion margins in this segment. In the last column, you will find under holding companies, all non-operating companies, including the head office in Rotterdam. The absolute amount of holding costs increased from EUR 27 million- EUR 29 million, and holding cost as a percentage of total revenue slightly decreased.

On the next page, you will find a summary of the PNL lines from EBITDA to the net result for the period, and some general remarks. The development of recurring net finance cost and income tax expenses are summarized on the next two slides, but before we go there, amortization of intangible assets and related tax credits are non-cash cost items related to the amortization of supplier relations, distribution rights and other intangibles. The increase is mainly the result of acquisitions done. The EUR 3 million non-recurring expenses and related EUR 1 million non-recurring tax income in 2021 relate to cost of realized and non-realized acquisitions, net result on the sale of Nutri Granulations business in the U.S., and cost of one-off adjustments to the organization.

Then on the next slide 13, a breakdown of the 2021 net finance cost, adding up to EUR 22 million, which is about EUR 4 million lower than previous year. This EUR 4 million decrease is, as you could see, a combination of EUR 3.7 million lower interest costs related to our financing structure. Further changes in deferred considerations, adding EUR 3.2 million to the difference, are reported on this line, and we experienced lower negative currency exchange results in 2021. On page 14, a summary of our income tax expenses. The reported increase of our regular income tax expense is EUR 37 million. As a guidance for our tax costs, we indicated to expect a blended tax rate in the range of 24%-28% of a result before tax calculated as EBITDA minus finance and non-recurring costs.

As you will notice, the summary on the bottom of this page indicates that IMCD's blended regular tax rate was slightly above the 24%, which is close to the low end of the guidance that we gave to you. 2021 tax cash out was EUR 84 million, compared to EUR 46 million in 2020. I would like to refer to the annual report for further details on tax. You might have seen that all previous slides include a small footnote that the 2020 numbers have been restated as a result of a change in accounting policy following the IFRIC agenda decision on cloud computing arrangements. A bit of an annoying change, in my opinion.

Perhaps just to refresh your memory, in 2019, the application of IFRS 16 resulted not only in capitalizing rented offices on our balance sheet, but also to capitalize the value of our longer term software as a service contract. In 2021, the IFRIC, which is an interpretation committee from IFRS, issued a so-called clarifying guidance about the treatment of these SaaS contracts under IFRS.

Basically, IFRIC changed the reporting goal post, and under this revised accounting policy, costs that previously would have been capitalized are treated as operating expenditure in case you cannot demonstrate the ability to control the relevant software, which is obvious, often the case with SaaS products. The change in accounting policy have been adopted retrospectively, whereby comparative figures for the 2020 years have been restated. On slide 15, a short summary of the impact on the IMCD reported numbers.

The impact of the change in accounting policy on the operating EBITDA of 2020 is -EUR 10 million and only affects holding, the segment holdings. The impact on the net result for both years is negligible, as higher operating expenses are practically compensated by lower amortization cost as a result of the revised accounting policy. For more details, including the impact on cash flow and balance sheet, I would like to refer to the annual report at page 127 and further. On the next page, the calculation of the cash EPS and our dividend proposal. As you can see on this slide, we report EUR 4.64 cash earnings per share in 2021, which is a 44% increase compared to 2020.

At the AGM in May, we will propose a dividend of EUR 1.62 in cash per share, which means an increase of 59% compared to last year. This dividend proposal leads to a payout ratio of 35%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to last year. Page 16, a summary of IMCD's balance sheet. Property, plant and equipment slightly increased and is as a result of the asset-light business model, still relatively low compared to the size of our business. The right-of-use assets is the result of the application of IFRS 16. This EUR 69 million reflects capitalized operational leases. Intangible assets and related deferred tax liabilities are mainly the result of acquisitions made. You will see a growing equity position of close to EUR 1.5 billion, covering 61% of capital employed.

The increase in 2021 is, as you might understand, the result of the addition of the net profit for the year of EUR 207 million. Other comprehensive income, adding a positive EUR 57 million and a minus for dividend payments in cash of EUR 58 million. Two other balance sheet lines, working capital and net debt, are summarized on the next two pages. Page 18, you will find a summary of the absolute amount of the various working capital components and these absolute amounts translated in days of revenue. As you can see, the absolute working capital amount increased with EUR 169 million, and this increase is a combination of EUR 50 million additional working capital related to the companies that we acquired in 2021.

There was a EUR 15 million addition as a result of exchange rate differences, and further, we report an operational increase of EUR 104 million. At the end of December 2021, net working capital in days of revenue was 63 days, an increase of eight days compared to last year. Piet already indicated in his introduction, in particular, the strong sales toward the end of 2021 contributed to higher trade and other receivable days at a plus five days compared to the end of 2020. In addition, the healthy order book for the beginning of 2022 had an upward effect on the inventory positions and on the trade payables. On page 19, a summary of our net debt position.

At the end of 2021, we report EUR 940 million of net debt, which means an increase of a bit more than EUR 200 million compared to the end of 2020. Apart from the usual bond loan, the Schuldschein and the bank loans, net debt includes about EUR 70 million of operating lease liabilities as a result of IFRS 16. Further in the net debt, we report about EUR 309 million of deferred considerations. Most of these deferred considerations relate to the remaining 30% of Signet and Megasetia that we will pay in 2024. On this same page, an overview of the maturity profile of our debt structure at the end of the year. The purple bar represents the full revolver facility of EUR 500 million, which is of course not fully drawn.

Reported leverage at the end of 2021 was 2.3 times EBITDA. The leverage ratio, calculated based on the definitions used in IMCD's loan documentation, was only 1.5 times EBITDA, which is well below the required maximum as set in the loan documentation. We'd like to finish the financial summary with the cash flow overview on page 20. As you can see, the absolute amount of free cash flow in 2021 was EUR 279 million, whereby the cash conversion ratio decreased to 73%. This decrease in conversion ratio is a combination of substantially higher operating EBITDA as a positive, combined with lower CapEx as a positive and a substantial working capital investment, mainly due to the increased business activities and the strong 2022 book.

On the last slide of the presentation you will find the outlook in which we, among others, indicated IMCD sees interesting opportunities to increase its global footprint and to expand its product portfolio, both organically and by acquisitions in 2022. For a summary of our figures, and Piet and myself are happy to answer any of your questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we will start the question and answer session now. To be registered for questions, please press star one on your telephone. That's star one for your questions. Go ahead, please. The first question is from Mr. Matthew Yates, Bank of America. Go ahead, please, sir.

Matthew Yates
Director and Head of European Equities Chemicals Research, Bank of America

Hey, good morning, gentlemen. A few questions, please, if I can. The first one is just around the dividend. Obviously, it's a substantial increase in an absolute sense, but your payout ratio hasn't necessarily changed at all. Should we read anything into this in terms of your ability to recycle capital through acquisitions being less confident, or does this really just reflect the bigger scope of the overall business? Second question is a bit of a personal one, Piet, but I see you signed a contract extension last year. I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about, at a high level, things you're hoping to achieve over the next couple of years through the course of that contract in terms of keeping the company moving forward.

If I can squeeze in a third one, it's a bit niche, but your peer Azelis listed last year, and one of the interesting differences in their portfolio is the emphasis on agriculture, which I don't think has ever really been a big part of the IMCD business. Do you see agriculture as an opportunity for you to move into, or does it not fit your model? Thank you.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Thank you, Matthew. On the first question, dividend and payout ratio, I think that we expressed a policy in the past that we will pay out, what was it, Hans, between 25%-35%. That's what we're doing. This will be 35%. I think what we always aspire to is use our cash to grow the company. So be very much focused on growth and further acquisitions, strategic acquisitions. I would say it's part of our entrepreneurial DNA that we also need to, you know, keep cash in the company to further grow.

I think that's in the best interest for shareholders also, as we have proven over the years. As to my own, the question about my own ambitions, I think consistently, also in the next couple of years, expand our business further, nurture talent. I think we have a lot of talent, all over the world. As I, in the future, as everybody sometimes will retire from the company, then, I hope to leave it in the best possible shape. We have exciting opportunities to grow.

I think this year or last year you saw that as well, and even the beginning of this year, also by our expansion also in Latin America, but also in China, Europe, where we strengthen our business in Southeast Europe. A lot of opportunities. I think it's also good to again emphasize that we work with, I would say the top manufacturers in the world. That helps us of course also enormously to expand further, because if we work with the best possible product portfolio, that helps us. Our focus will remain on aligning with the winners in the industry. In that sense, we will also further focus on our ability to help our customers formulate with greener products.

That's why we also need to invest further in our technical capabilities and our digital capabilities. On agricultural, we do that actually, let's say not so visible probably for everybody, but we do that. It's let's say for us, it's segmented under our pharmaceutical business, also sometimes on our food business, depending on the range of products. We are having a position in there, and I do not rule it out that we further will expand in that. As an example, maybe a nice example is that we are very active, for example, in Champagne region in France, in this field. I guess that were your questions, Matthew.

Matthew Yates
Director and Head of European Equities Chemicals Research, Bank of America

Indeed. Sorry. Thank you so much for taking the time.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Dominic Edridge, Deutsche Bank. Go ahead, please, sir.

Dominic Edridge
Senior Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Hi there. If possible, I'd like to ask three as well. Just, I know in the past you've talked about sort of fear of missing out being having an impact on customer sort of ordering patterns. Is that something you're still seeing, or do you feel that, as you say, the current sort of strength in orders that you're seeing are reflective of underlying demand? And are you able to fully fulfill all of the customer orders currently given obviously all the supply chain issues? The second question was just about M&A, and obviously you made a lot of acquisitions in Latin America now.

Can you just say what your sort of focus is now, maybe, or maybe more general comments on whether there's geography or product-led acquisitions, or whether it's much more based around what's available out there and in the M&A market. Then the last question is just on logistics costs. Apologies, could you just remind us how, you know, you think about them, obviously, with a lot of costs going up at the moment, particularly on the fuel side. Could you just say, are there sort of very much automatic pass-throughs there? And are you still seeing a lot of logistics constraints and inflation coming through there as well? Thank you very much.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Okay. Your first question relates to whether or not we can fulfill orders. Yes, we can. Sometimes, with a delay, but usually we are able, and you can see that also in our numbers, because we have had significant volume growth also, so we can deliver. Of course it's different per supplier, per product range, where it comes from, what the lead times are. It's a big demand, so to say, on our customer service operation and our logistics operation. I really want to thank these people in our company very much because they have very challenging times, but they do great. In the end, yes, we are able to fulfill the orders.

On M&A in LatAm, maybe very brief summary. We have a very significant traditional position in Brazil and circling around, let's say, the industrial segments, but also food and a very significant position in the pharma in Brazil. I think in the rest of South America, the Latin America, we are building businesses like we have elsewhere in the world, which again circles around industrial segments like coatings and constructions, advanced materials, but also again in the life science sector. Our acquisition of IMCD Andes or Andes Chemical, as it was called before, which has its hub in Miami and serves the Central American and Caribbean region, is very much focused on the industrial segments.

We will add also life science segments to that. In Mexico, we have, I would say, broad product offering. Let's say, the intention is to look for partners and acquisition targets that are helping us to build a complete business portfolio as we have elsewhere in the world. Last question on logistics costs. Hans, do you want to give? I mean, basically what we do is to pass it on. We, I mean, if logistics costs increase, then we will pass it on to the customers. So we don't, and we don't have issues with that, as you can see also on the basis of our percentage margin. So no real concerns there.

Dominic Edridge
Senior Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thanks. Just, sorry, probably a bit of my first question got lost, I think, in all of my words, but just to follow up on, do you feel that the current level of ordering that you're seeing from your customers is reflective of their demand, or do you think they're still building their own inventories at the current time?

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Oh, sorry. Yeah.

Dominic Edridge
Senior Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

No, that's okay. Sorry, it's my fault.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yeah. No, that one, yeah. There could be some of that in, but it's very, very difficult for us to, let's say, monitor that for each customer. I think the fact that it goes on for so long already is probably more evidence to the fact that they really use these products and do less on stock building.

Dominic Edridge
Senior Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Chetan Udeshi, JP Morgan. Go ahead, please.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah. Hi. Morning. I had a couple of more technical questions. Maybe I'll start with the first one on the deferred consideration. I think the number has gone up quite a bit from end of 2020 to end of 2021. I think it was EUR 194 million and now it's EUR 309 million. I see in the annual report the mention is that maybe about EUR 40 million of that is due to Signet changes, and then it implies there is another EUR 70 million-EUR 75 million increase somewhere else. Can you just talk about this deferred consideration and what it means for the cost of acquisitions in general? How should we think about maybe something similar happening in the future for other acquisitions that you may do?

The second question, and again, a bit more technical in nature, but I was just looking at the annual report in the guarantees section, and it seems it says the group has granted guarantees of EUR 80 million, I mean, versus EUR 38 million last year, and there's a big increase in guarantees for goods. I mean, I don't know how this plays out into numbers and what these guarantees relate to. So can you maybe help us understand that topic? Thank you.

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

Yeah. Chetan, the first one on deferred considerations. Basically, the two biggest positions in the EUR 300-something million that you see there are related to the 30% minority shares that we will buy from the former owners of Signet in one acquisition and Megasetia in the other one. The increase that you refer to, the EUR 75 million, is related to the 30% of Megasetia . The adjustment on the Signet deferred consideration is a bit of a technical one. What you typically do is when you make your purchase price allocation, you do first a preliminary one, then you look at the development in the first years of trading.

If it's better than expected, you need to slightly increase the obligation because what we said last year is that the final purchase price that we need to pay for the remaining 30% relates to the expected profit levels in 2024. I think it's an indication of the strong performance of Signet. On the guarantee side, you mention a slight increase. I think what you see there is that for certain suppliers, we guarantee the purchase price obligations from our local subsidiaries. As you grow these supplier relations and as you grow your business, automatically this amount increases.

It's a bit the nature of the business in certain parts of the world that suppliers expect a parent company guarantee from the owners of the company. It's nothing unusual in our type of industry.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Understood. Maybe, Hans, if I follow up on your first, I mean, response to the first question. Can I also clarify this contingent consideration or deferred consideration? Is that the present value? Because what I'm trying to get to is how much cash outflow there will be in 2024. Will there be more than this, even if nothing changes, just because might have, you know, put the present value of that consideration, not the exact cash amount?

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

Yeah. It is the present value. There is a table somewhere in the annual account which shows the nominal and the present value. Basically, it is the expected value that we need to pay in 2024, and then discounted at the Dutch interest rate. We discount it at a rate of 1.1%. It is very close to the nominal value that we need to pay in 2024.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

That's clear. Thank you.

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

What you then perhaps need to do to finish the technical part here, if you discount it every year, you need to add a bit to the value, and that flows through my P&L as interest cost. That is what is reflected in the interest cost on the line, changes in deferred considerations.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

All of this cash out will be sometime in 2024, as you said, you know. That's when-

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

Yeah. Yeah.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay.

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

We have an agreement with both owners to buy the remaining 30% in 2024.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Henk Veerman, Kempen & Co. Go ahead, please.

Henk Veerman
VP of Equity Research, Kempen & Co

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. My first question is on your working capital inventory build-up. You highlighted that that relates to, let's say, continuous very strong demand into Q1. Could you maybe provide some more color on which areas that you see that strong demand or in which end markets? My second question is on your growth related to new product lines. I think you mentioned that in your opening statements. You also gave the example of growth in industrial segments in Asia. Do I understand it correctly that that is all, let's say, organic expansion into new market segments?

Am I correct to assume that there is also a bit more focus on, let's say, organic expansion via new product lines, may perhaps a bit more focus on that in Asia, also given maybe your that it's a bit more difficult to pursue acquisitions in countries like China. My third question is on, let's say the continuous shortages across your end markets, which as you say, creates longer lead times for you to deliver to clients. I was wondering, yeah, you talked in the past about clients aiming to simplify their supply chains, but do you see maybe, let's say, a bit of a reversal of that, given that these longer lead times, that maybe clients start to source from multiple distributors again to shorten those lead times?

Thank you.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yes, Henk. The first question is on where the growth is coming from. I can only say that it's coming from all regions and all business segments. There is, to be honest, there's no weakness to be noted anywhere. I would say it's also, in my experience, quite unprecedented

It's quite remarkable. On the new business lines, first of all, I think I want to emphasize that one of the key focuses since the last 26 years of us is, of course, to expand our business organically and because that's the [Non-English content] of our business model to be able to offer suppliers and customers a channel, regional channel, a multi-country channel, a channel that simplifies their business. Of course, that means that we pitch for new business and new business lines and products. That is something that is a constant in our, let's say, focus and of course, also something that is on the top of our list. That means also that we start new business segments.

We have, for example, in Europe, in Advanced Materials, we have now a very strong position in medical applications, where we have a very interesting product portfolio, and also very good technicians. You always think about us as a group that is investing in business segments as specializations that help our suppliers and our customers to formulate the products. I mentioned that specifically because otherwise you always talk only about acquisitions, but there's also a big leg that is organically, and that's getting and convincing suppliers to work with us.

On your last question, I'm not totally sure if I understand it, because the fact that our longer lead times has nothing to do, I would say, with the need to simplify businesses for our suppliers. I think it more has to do with the disruption, I would say in logistics chains across the world, in China and elsewhere and also in the United States, in ports and whereby sometimes it takes longer to get the products from Asia to Europe and the other way around. It's more let's say capacity that is let's say applicable to everybody and not so much to us. Our focus is to help our suppliers, you know, to optimize the logistics chain from them to us and then to the customer.

That is something, of course, that is part of our, yeah, let's say, core business and also helps our suppliers to reduce their costs. I hope that answers your question.

Henk Veerman
VP of Equity Research, Kempen & Co

Yeah. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Rajesh Kumar, HSBC. Go ahead, please.

Rajesh Kumar
Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Hi, good morning. First question is really the level of growth you're enjoying at the moment have to be some degree of cyclical recovery and, you know, some degree of all the improvements you talked about. So when we are thinking about the future, and I remember you always say to us that, you know, 6%-7% type of growth is your end market exposure. So that's across many years. So if we have had a very fast year recently and, you know, maybe for another couple of quarters, should we expect a below the trend performance for a few quarters before it gets back on 6%-7% growth because of the comps? Or, you know, would it be reasonable?

I know it's deep in the future, but you know, just how you think about it would be very helpful to understand. The second question is obviously there is a big step up in margins because of acquisition mix and operational gearing. As you know, many people expect later this year or even next year, you might see bulk chemical prices ease. You are not a bulk distributor, and your products are not widely quoted on ICIS. There's a bit of you know, lack of price transparency in the broader market. You're not exposed to the same chemical price variation as bulk distributors would be.

Would you think that the margins, gross margin or operational gearing, there could be a bit of impact from adverse differential inflation, especially because wage inflation is quite strong or seems to be quite strong around the world. Your thoughts on that would be very interesting.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Well, Rajesh, you hit me on my weak spot, and that is how the future looks. I think in both questions. I guess it's clear, but I'm now talking more in a general way that we see a strong growth in all economies across the world. That will of course ease at a certain stage. When? Yeah, that is difficult to say. I think central banks also told us that inflation will be very short-lived, and we already have that for a longer time. That is, of course, also an effect for the future.

These growth numbers will not stay forever, but that is a bit of a general statement that is more philosophical. It will come down, I don't know when. I think that what we have demonstrated in the past that we're pretty good at holding our, let's say, positions and then grow from there further. Although yes, in the future, growth will be less abundant than it is now, then we still have a lot of opportunities in our business. The second question is more or less a little bit similar to, and that has to do with margin and how the margin will develop over time. You rightly pointed out that's a mix of many factors.

Product mix, business segment mix, so to say. We have acquired certain businesses with higher margin products. It is our focus, as you know, and I am pretty confident that we are able to keep a large part of that increase in the future as well. I'm a bit cautious here to answer. I hope you don't mind, but I find this longer look in the future always difficult. I think that goes for everybody because we see how the economic environment changes and is influenced by political events, as we know in Russia and Ukraine, also pandemic, et cetera. I would be cautious. Sorry for not being more specific.

Rajesh Kumar
Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

No. This is super helpful. Thank you very much. Just on you touched on Russia and Ukraine, any exposure there we should be aware of?

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Hans.

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

Yeah. Rajesh, exposure is limited. When I say limited, it means it's less than 1% of our revenue and less than 1% of our asset base, and also far below 1% of our EBITDA.

Rajesh Kumar
Equity Research Analyst, HSBC

Great. Yeah. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, for questions, you may still press star one. The next question is from Mr. Quirijn Mulder, ING. Go ahead, please.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Yeah. Good morning, everyone. I hope you can hear me.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yes.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Okay. Thank you. Good morning. On inventory. The inventory was increasing by, I think, over 40%. Can you give me some indication of what that is that more. Let me say that's the price impact related to logistics and supply chain issues, et cetera. That's the correct view, I think. Also give me some indication about whether there is any volume you can mention on that effect there? Where. Or is it pure pricing in that inventory?

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Quirijn, if you break down the increase, if you talk about 40%, part of it relates to newly acquired companies.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Yeah.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

That is, of course, if you compare December last year, December this year, then there is a bit of currency in there. On total working capital, that was EUR 15 million, so that's also reflected on the inventory line.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Yeah.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

There is quite some additional volume due to the very healthy order book for the start of this year. For sure, there is also a little bit of a pricing impact there, that if you have a bit inflated prices compared to the same period of last year, then also if the prices go up, then also your inventory value goes up. It's the combination of these four factors.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Okay.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

I think out of your 40%, I think about a third is M&A related, and about 10% is currency related, and the remainder is more operational.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Okay. No, that's great to hear. About U.S. Maybe Piet can elaborate on the U.S. Your organization is in order. I don't think that you have a lot still to do, some integration between the units. Are you ready for the next step? I mean with that, something which is more serious in terms of M&A.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

We always, Quirijn, we're always ready for the next step. You're right that we have integrated and implemented IT infrastructure. We are now also organically adding business in the U.S. Let's say our ability now to also offer coast-to-coast service to our suppliers and customers is enormously helpful. If the opportunity arises, yes, we will make next steps also in the U.S.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Okay. There are, in general, some candidates, you think?

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yes.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Different from the Far East, of course, but.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

There are candidates, yes.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

My final question is about, let me say, moving more and more into Indonesia, Latin America. You know that these countries are not always, let me say, the ethics we try to push forward. Is there anything you can say about measures you take to prevent issues which are, yeah, which are related to that sort of problems or issues?

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yeah. Well, I think we always have to be cautious about, let's say, judging other countries. I would say, of course, like I would say any internationally operating company that we have very strict compliance rules, compliance officers, and there's no, let's say, no tolerance for deviating from these compliance rules and so we will do everything to keep that. We give trainings to people and monitor it, of course, very closely. Yeah, I think this is not different from any multinational. I can only say that we try to uphold the highest standards here.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Andy Grobler, Credit Suisse. Go ahead, please.

Andy Grobler
Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hi. Good morning, everybody. Just two from me, if I may. Firstly, on M&A, we hear from lots of the competitors about their intention to increase the level of spending into the market. What is that doing to the pricing environment for those deals, particularly the kind of mid to larger size ones? Then secondly, just thinking about organic gross profit growth through the year, can you split out how much of that is volume versus pricing or your pricing, and how that moved through the course of the year would be great. Thank you very much.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yes. Your second question, I think, Hans, you will take maybe. The first question on pricing of potential targets. I mean, as a, let's say, first and foremost, we want and will stay disciplined about, let's say, paying value for companies. I think if you look over time then I would yeah maybe slightly multiples have come up, but I think over time it's still within the bandwidth that we use. So we're not too concerned about that. You know, individual companies are of course not comparable in terms of value because it depends very much on the size, on the portfolio of products, suppliers, et cetera. We have competition.

We had competition in the past, but I think that we're still disciplined in how we execute that. Hans, you on,

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

Yeah. Andy, your question is around volume and pricing split in the organic margin growth. I can imagine if you talk about our business model and compare that with the more commodity-oriented players. The commodity people always talk about margin per ton, and what is the volume impact and what is the pricing impact. If you compare that with our business model, for certain suppliers, we talk in prices per kilogram. Others, we do pricing per ton. We even talk in grams. Volume is not so much something that we really track and trace as one of the KPIs.

If I look at individual suppliers, and that is of course what we do on a regular basis, I think it's fair to say that with most suppliers, the volume increase had a much bigger impact than the pricing increase. I think if I would look at the total IMCD portfolio, the organic growth is mainly driven by volume growth and supported by a bit of pricing increases. You should ask me on a fixed percentage.

Andy Grobler
Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

I wonder on that DKSH in their performance materials business talked about around 80-20 split volume versus their pricing. Is that something you would recognize in your business around that level?

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

Yeah. Again, I don't have a fixed number there, but for sure it's more than half is volume related, and it could be close to that range. To be brutally honest, I just don't know.

Andy Grobler
Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay, fair enough. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Chetan Udeshi, JP Morgan. Go ahead, please.

Chetan Udeshi
Equity Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah. Actually, my question was same as the previous question, which was the split of gross profit between volumes and price. I think it's fine now. Thank you.

Hans Kooijmans
CFO, IMCD

I hope you were happy with the answer then.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Quirijn Mulder, ING. Go ahead, please.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Yeah. Quirijn, a follow-up question on the EUR 110 million for increase in deferral considerations. Is there anything you have made your first estimate probably at the end of 2020.

Is it possible that we get another let me say another EUR 100 million in addition to that at the end of 2022? Or is the estimates much more cautious and let me say better than it was originally?

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yeah. Quirijn, I would be very happy if we could add another EUR 100 million because that's-

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Yes, I understand.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

The performance is really going through the roof, and even better than what we expect now. That is a bit my concern always with these earn-out obligations, that you need to make a guess for the final payout by the end of each and every year, and the difference in the guess flows through your P&L as interest cost. Therefore, we were with the exception that if you change your guess in the first year after the acquisition, you can just adjust your deferred consideration via the balance sheet. But your question, could it change? Yes, and it will change on the basis of changes in expected payout amounts, and that is related to the profitability of the company.

Quirijn Mulder
Senior Analyst and Director, ING

Yes. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Ms. Suhasini Varanasi, GS. Go ahead, please.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I had just one, please. A lot of talk around wage inflation this year and even a bit last year. I think you commented that you're planning to or going to increase the pricing in line with the wage increases. Can you give some color on geographic trends, U.S. versus Europe in particular, any differences on wage inflation that you're seeing over there? I know you don't give guidance, but how should we think about EBIT margins this year, in the context of wage inflation and maybe growth slowing a bit compared to the tough comps last year? Flattish margins is a good starting point, or should we be thinking slightly lower? Any color there would be helpful. Thank you.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yes. On inflation or let's say on price increases for products, maybe generally, I think it's good to realize again that we work very much in a global business in the sense that we work with suppliers that have global positions very often, not always, but very often. I don't think that we see a big difference in the sense that the U.S. or Asia is very different from Europe and vice versa. I would say that generally we see the same patterns over in the regions. On the EBIT margin, I think we do not give guidance on that. I'm sorry, but can't do that.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Sorry.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

But, but-

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

I was referring to wage inflation actually.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

I would say.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Sorry. I was referring to not chemical price increases, but wage inflation for your employees.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Oh, wage inflation.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Okay. Sorry. I misunderstood. Yeah, I think there you see some differences, of course. Significant wage inflation in the U.S., I would say. In certain individual countries, may I mention Turkey here, which of course has unprecedented inflation. Even in Europe, some differences per country, although it grows together more and more. I would say generally significant wage inflations. Of course, we compete for high performers and highly educated people, so that is, of course, always a factor in our business because we want to retain people and also recruit people that can help us grow our business.

That is an issue, and that's why we have to work hard to do even better, so to say.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Thank you. Apologies, if I may just have a follow-up. Just sorry to keep on pushing it, but would you say it's basically the same level of inflation of maybe, say, high single digits in the U.S. as well as Europe or maybe Europe is a bit less? Just to get some color. Thank you.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

On wage inflation, you mean?

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Yes, on wage inflation.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yeah. No, I would say U.S. is a bit higher than Europe.

Suhasini Varanasi
VP of Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Thank you very much.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yeah.

Operator

The next question is from Mr. Rikin Patel, BNP Paribas Exane. Go ahead, please.

Rikin Patel
Executive Director of Global Chemicals, BNP Paribas Exane

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just one there. I noticed the conversion margins in the Americas were down sequentially in Q4, but up in Europe and Asia. Just curious if you could provide some context around that. Thanks.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Yeah. If you look at the development of conversion margins through the quarters, I think it's fair to say that normally the last quarter is a bit of a lower quarter if we talk about sales and revenue. This year, the quarter was pretty strong. As a consequence, I think we added also a bit of additional cost to our structure in the last quarter to basically prepare for the additional bonus payments that we have to do because of the very strong outcome of 2021. What you usually see during the year is that the last quarter is always the quarter with the lowest conversion margin. That's not abnormal. If you look at the history of the company, it's the same trend every year.

Rikin Patel
Executive Director of Global Chemicals, BNP Paribas Exane

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if there are any additional questions, please press star one. There are no further questions at this moment.

Piet van der Slikke
CEO, IMCD

Okay. I want to thank everybody for listening to us and asking questions and having interest in IMCD, and hopefully talk to you next quarter. Thank you very much. Have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the analyst call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect your line. Have a nice day.

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