Good afternoon everyone and welcome to KPN Strategy Update 2025. We are now at the midpoint of our Connect, Activate, and Growth strategy. Today we will share our progress so far and provide a vision of what KPN will look like in the future. Before I hand over to our CEO Joost Farwerck and CFO Chris Figee, I would like to outline today's agenda. First, we will reflect on where KPN stands today. We will update you on our infrastructure and transformation journey, followed by how we're unlocking customer value. Finally, we share with you our financial ambitions before moving to the Q & A.
Before we start the presentation, I would like to point out that today's presentation, just as this morning's press release, includes forward looking statements and ambitions. Please note that these statements as well as any other statements made during this presentation are subject to the same safe harbor that was included in this morning's press release. Now let me hand over to our CEO Joost Farwerck.
Hello everyone and thank you for joining us. Two years ago we introduced our Connect, Activate, and Grow strategy, a four year plan to drive growth and transformation. Now that we're halfway through that journey, it's time to share the progress we've made and show how it sets the stage for our future. As a pure Dutch operator, we offer strategic simplicity, transparency and minimal geopolitical risk. The resilient Dutch economy continues to outperform the Eurozone, with inflation slightly higher around 3% versus 2.1% due to strong domestic demand and wage growth. The Netherlands ranks amongst Europe's most digital savvy economies and our future proof networks are ready to power the next generation of connectivity. With best in class margins, strong cash flow, visibility and disciplined capital returns, we lead among European incumbents. Let's take a quick look at our achievements over the past two years.
We are the market leader in fiber for both consumer and business. Our 5G network is recognized with the highest score worldwide. This year we launched tower company Altio and last year we acquired Youfone. By 2027, 2/3 of our energy will come from renewable sources. We serve over 4 million broadband and 15 million mobile users and now hold the top spot in both segments. Security is of central importance to us and we invest heavily to protect privacy. Our customers are our top priority and we maintain industry-leading net promoter scores. All our achievements are made possible by Team KPN, over 10,000 professionals who drive innovation and connectivity across the Netherlands.
Our total workforce includes approximately 9,000 KPN FT and around 1,500 flexible contingent workforce. Employee engagement is consistently high, reflecting strong commitment, and we invest in our people every year, giving everyone the opportunity to grow and prepare for the digital future enabled by our transformation programs. Our purpose is clear. We go all out to connect everyone in the Netherlands to a sustainable future. As launched during our Capital Markets Day in 2023, our Connect, Activate, and Grow strategy is built on three key pillars. One, we continue to invest in our leading networks. Two, we continue to grow and protect our customer base. Three, we further modernize and simplify our operating model, and together these priorities support our ambition to grow our service revenues and adjusted EBITDA by approximately 3% on average and our free cash flow by about 7% over the entire strategic period.
ESG is at the core of our strategy. We've set clear ambitions to be nearly 100% circular by 2025, to have a zero carbon emission fleet by 2030, and to be net zero by 2040. Supporting these ambitious targets, we've significantly reduced electricity consumption over the past decade despite rising data demand, and our efforts have earned us top ESG ratings.
Our ESG journey covers a lot more. We are fully committed to our mission for a better Internet, fostering a much faster, greener, safer Internet for everyone. To that end, we have launched nationwide campaigns about online shaming and online exclusion, supporting our belief that Internet should be a safe and social place that connects and empowers people. All these efforts have translated into solid results. Service revenues and EBITDA are growing with industry-leading margins operating. Free cash flow remains strong with further improvement expected in 2027 as CapEx falls below EUR 1 billion. In line with the plan, free cash flow growth has been modest due to cash taxes, but is expected to step up in 2027 following the same CapEx step down and our return on capital employed is advancing towards 15% target, confirming our long-term value creation model and that is working.
As such, today we confidently reaffirm our mid term ambitions. Let's now have a look at our infrastructure. KPN is entering a new phase of value creation driven by our strong infrastructure and digital transformation. We have shown we can monetize our fiber and 5G infrastructure, laying a solid foundation for growth. The next wave of value could come from our edge infrastructure. With industry-leading fiber, the best 5G network, and the wide footprint of site locations, we're building a distributed platform ready to support the future of digital services. This platform has launched a private network service, 5G Campus, and is ready to support new use cases such as AI as a Service, advanced edge services, and sovereign data processing. This positions us and our infrastructure as a clear differentiator in the Dutch market.
Fiber is now the leading infrastructure in the Netherlands holding 47% market share, while copper and cable continue to decline. Nationwide coverage now exceeds 90%, with overbuilds of estimated around 900,000 or around 50% of Dutch households. At year end, we, KPN, hold a clear lead in the Dutch fiber market in homes passed, connected, and in business parks through our joint venture Glaspoort. This ensures that both consumers and businesses have access to the fastest, most reliable network. This strong position sets us up for sustained growth and future-proof connectivity. We want everyone in the Netherlands to have access to high-speed connectivity. Over the past years, we have built a strong fiber foundation. Together with the joint venture Glaspoort, we now cover 2/3 of the country, and including co-option agreements on small third-party fiber networks, our coverage is even broader.
With most of the country already covered by fiber, the next wave of our fiber deployment will focus mainly on new build and overbuilt areas. With that, we're entering a new phase, shifting our focus from passing homes to connecting and activating them to deliver superior value and profitable growth. While we remain committed to expanding fiber coverage, this adjusted rollout means that our original target of 80% household penetration by the end of 2026 will most likely take longer. Fiber deployment will continue, but in a more sophisticated and capital efficient manner aligned with our transformation programs and the planned CapEx reduction to below EUR 1 billion in 2027. Still, nationwide high speed coverage remains a long term ambition. From 2030 onwards, we expect our fiber network to reach up to a maximum of 85% of Dutch households with fiber.
The remaining households will be served by hybrid solutions such as high speed copper supported by fixed wireless access. We are shifting towards connecting and activating homes, which is key to boosting penetration in ARPU. On the right you see the trend in fiber areas. We gain about 8 percentage points market share one year after the first connection, and this keeps rising over time. Old fiber areas show where we can land, and this is how we turn coverage into profitability. As our fiber network matures, we are moving to a full fiber operating model to drive efficiencies. By that we are simplifying our architecture, rationalizing it, automating networks, and digitizing customer interaction. All of this enables us to run our operations much more efficiently and deliver a first time right service to our customers. We lead in mobile connectivity with a stronger foundation than ever.
Over 5,000 sites we deliver above 99% 4G and 5G coverage and almost all fiber connected. Our mobile network has been awarded with the highest score globally and we've boosted capacity for gigabit speeds and introduced 5G Campus. I just mentioned our private network service. We also launched a 5G edge service based on a 40 ms latency and looking ahead, we will monetize this strength by rolling out 5G standalone, shifting to cloud native by 2027 and expanding C band coverage while simplifying our core for greater efficiency. Across the Netherlands we operate around 130 metro core locations, key assets in our distributed infrastructure. By combining fiber, 5G, and these metro core sites we enable super low latency, secure and decentralized connectivity and this unlocks advanced use cases such as enterprise applications, real time data processing, and AI driven services.
By transforming these sites into strategic edge locations, we're unlocking new revenue opportunities for the coming years. Let's now move to our transformation program. We are driving a bold transformation across every part of our business. Across the customer interaction layer, across the platform layer, and across the infrastructure layer. Our ambition is clear. First, to become the undisputed leader in customer experience. Second, build an autonomous core through AI-driven automation, and third, unlock the full potential of our network, turning it into a smart, flexible platform for all users. To make us faster, leaner, and more sustainable, we are driving efficiencies across every layer. Customer engagement is shifting to digital, platforms are being simplified, and infrastructure is modernized, and the results are already here.
More app usage, lower energy consumption, a leaner data center footprint, and the indirect cost stabilizing this year after increasing in the previous years. Looking ahead, we will accelerate our transformation to improve customer satisfaction and cut cost, and we have set clear goals in each. By 2027, half our customers use digital apps while call centers will become increasingly automated. IT sourcing becomes 30% more efficient, supported by AI, and infrastructure consolidations continues cutting energy costs and copper phaseouts. We are on track to switch off over 4 million copper lines this year, and by 2027, 90% of our copper lines in our fiber footprint should be gone. The copper switch off is expected to improve quality, reliability, and cost efficiency, and these savings are expected to accelerate towards the end of the decade.
AI is at the core of our transformation and embedded in three ways. First, always-on AI for seamless customer journeys. Second, AI-driven automation for smarter insights and security, and third, AI-powered operations for speed and resilience. By 2027 we aim to automate more than half of today's operational activities, resulting in lower costs and superior customer service. To summarize, a lot is happening at KPN and the transformation is moving faster. Our goal is clear, a multi-year savings program targeting approximately EUR 100 million net indirect OpEx savings annually by 2030. Let's now move to each of the business segments, starting with Consumer. Consumer is expected to deliver steady low single-digit growth with about 1.5% service revenue CAGR expected through 2027, driven by our fiber expansion, our strong mobile propositions, and targeted upsell. Using a multi-brand strategy, we address all market segments.
KPN serves the mass market with premium quality and security while Youfone and Simyo address the no frills segment. Our fiber network keeps driving solid fiber subscriber growth as customers choose secure, fast and high quality connectivity. As a premium brand we deliver top speeds up to 4 gig seamless secure in home experiences with easy setup through the mijnKPN app. High speed adoption is accelerating with about half of new broadband sales at 1 gb and above and with plenty of room to grow. Ongoing upsell and upgrades are fueling double digit growth in fiber revenues in mobile. Our best in class network and multi brand approach have helped expand our customer base and unlimited is now the new standard for the KPN brand, supporting ARPU. We stand out with targeted offers such as plans for kids and teens and loyalty features like MB sharing.
Premium value is added through high-end security and speed tiering, ensuring a safe and flexible experience. The focus on innovation and customer-centric features is expected to continue to drive subscriber growth across all our brands. Our strategy remains centered around households with three clear priorities. Deliver the fastest and most reliable fiber and 5G networks, redefine convergence with household 3.0, and thirdly personalize every customer interaction. A key enabler is the combination of services for customers within the same household. Our Combivoordeel package launched in this year February. Combivoordeel is a strategic investment in our base. It requires investments upfront but as more customers adopt it, lower churn and more upsell will drive higher service revenues and EBITDA. We are already seeing the first positive signs. ARPA is increasing, churn is reducing, customer satisfaction is rising, and the household base is growing.
Let me now move to B2B. In 2023, we set clear priorities for our business segments to drive service revenues and grow profitability, and this approach has delivered consistent top line growth over the past two years. By that, we were outperforming the broader market. Looking ahead, our strategy remains focused on protecting core connectivity with pricing and cost discipline. We expand in high growth areas like security, CPaaS, and IoT, and we continue to strengthen our distribution partner network, always with strict margin focus. As a result, we expect B2B to keep growing above the market at approximately 3% service revenue CAGR through 2027. KPN is the trusted partner for SME, built on operational excellence, a strong brand, and a top quality network. We lead in mobile and broadband with over 70% of our SME customers protected by extra secure Internet.
Our integrated KPN [One] solutions enables seamless cross and upselling, and combined with our growing IT business, we are positioned as a unique one stop shop for entrepreneurs and mid market clients. We drive growth through our strong multi channel strategy, with partners generating over half of SME service revenues. As app adoption accelerates, we expect robust online growth, and we aim to unlock new revenue streams via strategic distribution agreements. Turning to LTE, our strategy is built on three pillars. First, protect and monetize our core connectivity by focusing on pricing discipline, quality, value added service, and security. Second, accelerate growth in high potential areas. Our CPaaS business almost tripled in size, and our IoT base will reach nearly 14 million SIMs by the year end.
Third, we operate with a lean efficient model powered by digitalization, AI and value steering, and these strategic priorities should drive consistent service revenue growth in LC. For our largest customers, we deliver tailored solutions built on core connectivity, cloud, and cybersecurity. We are a trusted ICT partner in defense and security with mission critical service revenues growing over 10% annually, and not only for our government but also for private organizations. We provide secure reliable connections, for example through NL-ix, our own Internet Exchange. While partnership opportunities expand, we always stay focused on the value turning to wholesale. Our open access portfolio keeps growing with fiber expanding and mobile accelerating. In broadband, we are expanding our fiber footprint while facilitating the copper phase out.
In mobile, growth mainly comes from our international sponsored roaming business and travel eSIMs as many MVNOs leverage our existing roaming partnerships for seamless global services. Sponsored roaming has doubled over the past year and growth is expected to continue but at a slower pace. Looking ahead, we expect around 4% wholesale service revenue growth through 2027. Now, investing in innovation is key to driving growth and at KPN, innovation starts within our business segments. This is further strengthened through strategic partnerships with leading technology innovators via KPN Ventures. Today, our portfolio spans around 23 companies and through co-innovation, scale, and speed, we bring these benefits to customers across all our segments. With that, I'll hand over to Chris for the financials.
Thank you Joost and good afternoon everyone. I will now walk you through our financial framework and our outlook. Let me start by highlighting some of our key figures. We've delivered so far on nearly all our financial promises, reflecting strong execution across the board. Over the first half of our plan period, group service revenues have grown by 3% or more annually with all segments contributing. While consumer growth has been softer than initially expected due to competition, both business and wholesale markets have outperformed expectations. Our contribution margin decreased slightly, mainly driven by third party excess costs from Glaspoort and from service revenue mix effects. Our indirect cost savings have been slightly below plan, primarily due to inflationary pressure on labor costs. While we have reduced our workforce by over 500 FTEs since 2023, our personnel expenses have increased by around 5%.
In spite of these inflationary effects, we've delivered more than 4% EBITDA growth on average and our margins of around 45% remain best in class from a European perspective. Also excluding the contribution from Altio and IPR benefits, our EBITDA growth was still north of 3%. Operational free cash flow grew at a high single digit rate and our margins remained very strong despite being in the midst of a fiber investment cycle, demonstrating our underlying strong cash conversion. The attractive operational free cash flow profile did not yet fully trickle down into our free cash flow, mainly due to higher cash taxes which are driven by the consumption of our historical operating tax losses. Free cash flow growth so far was low single digit per annum in line with our CMD guidance.
For the remainder of the strategic period, our focus is clear, operational excellence with a strong emphasis on profitable growth. We're accelerating our transformation to drive down costs, targeting EUR 100 million net indirect OpEx savings by 2030, and we see CapEx step down of about EUR 250 million in 2027. Our main message here is that we are on track to reach our [pre-set] ambitions set in 2023 over the full period. Also, excluding the contribution from Altio, total shareholder returns including dividends and buybacks are now targeted at about EUR 4 billion, up from around EUR 3.8 billion guided in 2023. Driven by the operational performance and IPR benefits, this implies a further distribution of almost EUR 2.2 billion over the next two years, or around 15% of our current market cap, and our return on capital employed remains very solid and industry leading.
We aim for around 15% ROI during the planned periods, maintaining a 700-800 basis point spread over our cost of capital and we are fully on track to reach that objective. In short, our strategy is working. KPN remains a healthy company with robust margins and a proven track record of operational delivery and value creation. We reaffirmed the 3% EBITDA CAGR ambition at group level announced two years ago over the full plan period. Looking ahead over the next two years, group service revenue growth is expected to moderate somewhat towards 2%-2.5%, a trend already visible in the Q3 figures. Within the mix, consumer is projected to grow around 1.5% annually, business around 3%, and wholesale about 4% supported by [Joset International] sponsored roaming business.
Direct costs are expected to stay under pressure due to third party excess fees, service revenue, fixed effects, and inflation. At the same time, our transformation programs are fundamentally reshaping our operating model, enabling us to structurally reduce indirect costs. As we said via multi year transformation program, in 2030 our indirect OpEx will be about EUR 100 million lower than today. For this year we targeted EBITDA of at least EUR 2,633, 000,000, representing growth of around 5%. Obviously, our financial performance this year has partly benefited from IPR statements which are unlikely to recur next year. For 2026, we will provide you with a detailed outlook during the presentation of our full year 2025 results. A disciplined approach to capital expenditure is central to our plan.
Through 2026 CapEx will be stable at around EUR 1.25 billion despite inflation, and in 2027. After completing the heavy lifting phase of our fiber rollout, we expect a significant step down of around EUR 250 million to below EUR 1 billion. In recent years we've operated with one of the highest CapEx intensities in Europe, over 23% of our service revenues excluding investment in Glaspoort, and by 2027 our CapEx intensity is expected to normalize to around 17%-18% of service revenues while maintaining fiber leadership. Add note please that we manage our CapEx not as a percentage of revenues but as a nominal hard euro year envelope each year. With EBITDA growth of 3% and the CapEx step down in 2027, operating free cash flow is set to grow by about 10% annually on average over the strategic period.
This strong cash conversion will lift operating free cash flow margins from 24% today to approximately 30%, placing us amongst the top cash performers in Europe. Beyond 2027, CapEx is expected to remain stable at around EUR 1 billion, with a clear focus on infrastructure leadership, customer enablement, and simplification. Free cash flow CAGR is reaffirmed at around 7% for the entire strategic period driven by EBITDA growth and the CapEx step down. Let's look at the key moving parts. Cash taxes are set to increase as we utilize our deferred tax assets. This will result in a step up in cash taxes of around EUR 80 million in 2026 and a further EUR 80 million-EUR 90 million in 2027. After that, cash taxes will align with P&L taxes.
Interest expenses are expected to remain broadly stable assuming of course no significant change in the shape and level of the yield curve. Working capital is expected to remain steady over the planned period, though of course periodical fluctuations may come from time to time. For next year, keep in mind that we will not benefit again from the IPR settlements, so executing the IPR, our free cash flow is still expected to grow low single digit in line with our CMD guidance, driven again by EBITDA growth and partly offset by step up in cash taxes. In 2027, a s capital intensity normalizes to EUR 1 billion, we expect a material inflection in free cash flow. This supports a 7% CAGR over the 2023-2027 period. Later in this presentation I will share some more details on cash flows beyond 2027. We continue to have a strong balance sheet.
At the end of September our leverage ratio stood at 2.5x, fully in line with our self-imposed ceiling, and we expect this ratio to improve to 2.4x by year end, supported by increased free cash flow generation in Q4. Credit rating agencies continue to recognize our solid financial position, reflected in investment grade ratings and a stable outlook. We plan to maintain a net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2.5 x in the short term. Looking ahead, as major fiber investments wind down and capital intensity declines, we may consider gradually raising the leverage ceiling after 2027 whilst remaining fully aligned with a strong investment grade profile. This financial flexibility enables us to continue our policy of in principle distributing all free cash flow to shareholders while still investing in growth and preserving strategic optionality. In short, our healthy balance sheet supports long term value creation.
Now let's turn to our outlook and financial ambitions. We reiterate again our 2025 outlook. Our 2025 outlook as we already confirmed at our Q3 results last week. Looking further ahead, we also reaffirm our mid term ambitions for the period 2024-2027. Sustained service revenue growth, continued growth in EBITDA, sustained free cash regeneration and a CapEx maintained below EUR 1 billion in 2027 for the next two years of the planned period. This implies annual service revenue growth between 2% and 2.5%, EBITDA growth of about 3% per annum on average over the next two years based on the 2025 EBITDA excluding IPR benefits. Most of this growth will likely come in 2027 as cost measures planned for 2026 take full effect.
A free cash flow growth in 2026 of about 2%-2.5% based on the 25% cash flow, again excluding the IPR upgrade and a big step up in cash flow growth in 2027 fully in line with the guided CapEx step down. Looking beyond 2027, we expect mid single digit free cash flow growth driven by strong fundamentals and disciplined execution. This ambition aligns with today's free cash flow growth normalized for changes in CapEx, interest, and taxes. Beyond 2027, KPN will enter a new phase of sustainable growth with capital intensity stabilizing at around EUR 1 billion. Free cash flow rests on solid foundation, namely EBITDA growth from service revenues and cost discipline, stable CapEx and interest payments, and normalizing taxes at an effective rate of 23%.
This positioned us for consistent mid single digit cash flow growth well into the future, fully aligned with a strong investment grade profile. There is more. Consolidating, I joined venture Glaspoort at the end of this decade as roughly 1% of incremental free cash flow growth. From the end of this decade onwards, organic deleveraging from EBITDA growth will allow to absorb the impact of full consolidation which is about 0.3 x leverage. The bottom line is KPN is well positioned for healthy sustained free cash flow growth, giving us flexibility to invest for shareholder returns and continued balance sheet strength. Our shareholder distribution policy is simple. We return all the free cash flow we generate to our shareholders. Today that means 7% annual dividend growth with the remainder through share buybacks.
In 2025, t his translated into approximately EUR 690 million in dividends and EUR 250 million in share buybacks completed in July. We feel very confident in the group's ability to deliver a sustained free cash flow growth and as this free cash flow grows, it's natural for dividend to step up as well. That is why in 2026 we are increasing the share of free cash flow distributed via dividends to about 80%, a level that is still strongly covered and leaves room for buybacks. This shift brings an immediate uplift in the dividend per share of around 10%, targeting the dividend per share to about EUR 0.20 in 2026 on a declared basis and a further uplift of 25% to around EUR 0.25 per share in 2027. Through this, we doubled the committed DPS growth over the plan from 7% to 14%.
Looking ahead, this also means that over the 2026-2030 period, we expect to return approximately EUR 6 billion to dividends and share buybacks to our shareholders, equal to about 40% of our current market cap. In summary, our capital allocation policy remains clear, disciplined, and focused on shareholder value. With that, let me turn back to Joost for some final remarks.
Thanks, Chris. Let me briefly summarize the key takeaways. First, our mission for a better Internet is at the core of everything we do. Our focus shifts from infrastructure expansion to connecting and activating households. We expect to cover up to a max of 85% of the Netherlands with fiber by 2030 with hybrid speed solutions for the remainder. We reaffirm our 3/3/7 financial framework and we confirmed the CapEx step down in 2027, unlocking strong cash conversion. Our transformation is accelerating, targeting around EUR 100 million in indirect OpEx savings over the next five years and beyond 2017 we expect mid single digit free cash flow growth driven by strong fundamentals and disciplined execution. We remain fully committed to our shareholders returning all free cash flow through growing dividends and buybacks.
We're delivering on our strategy with disciplined execution, fiber leadership, and attractive shareholder returns, positioning us for sustainable growth well into the future. With that, we now welcome your questions. Matthijs?
Yeah, thank you Joost and Kees. Please note before we start the Q & A that the presentation is now available on the website and we will now open the floor for the Q & A session. Please, as always, limit your questions to two, please. Moving to you, operator.
Thank you, Matthijs. Ladies and gentlemen, we will start the question and answer session now. If you would like to ask a question, you may do so by pressing Star one on your telephone. Thank you. First question is from Keval Khiroya of Deutsche Bank . Please go ahead, your line is open.
Thank you for the questions and I have two please. Firstly, you've pushed out the target to cover 80% of homes with fiber. The CapEx spend out to 2027 remains the same, implying fiber rollout costs per premises are higher. Can you talk a bit more about what you're seeing on fiber rollout costs and also how much the EUR 1 billion of annual CapEx from 2027 is still on fiber. Secondly slowing down the fiber rollout means you avoid early overbuild of the altnets in some areas, but you still have copper customers in the areas covered by the altnets. How do you think about the vulnerability or not of your retail and also copper base in the altnet footprint? Thank you.
Yeah, thank you, Keval. I will start and then hand over to Chris. Like I said in my presentation, we will continue fiber rollout but at a more moderate pace. That is very important because we have to slow down the rollouts to connect our fiber rollout system more to the transformation programs and the copper switch off. It is very important for us to slow down to improve the fiber co-steering, to improve customer processes, etc. We are already seeing a coverage of 90% fiber in the Netherlands. Alt nets already stopped selecting new areas and we do not stop, we continue. We think it is more healthy for the company to go to a slower pace and end up north from 80% in five years from now. I think that is the most healthy strategy for KPN.
More smarter and prudent approach and all kind of small projects to finalize the switch off of number exchange areas for the copper decommissioning. That is important. We stepped down EUR 250 million in CapEx in 2027. That is mainly fiber CapEx of a total of, I would say, EUR 550 million. There is also a lot in customer equipment as well. We will still keep on investing in fiber in the years to come. We do a step down of EUR 250 million.
Yeah, on that. On the fiber side I would say the land grab phase has stopped so we can take a more moderate pace in rolling out. We have more HC rather than HP orientation I think as well. We'll connect it more to our copper switch off and that all is aligned. From a tactical perspective, that means you start doing smaller projects, more precise in the country, more granular, so less large countrywide building programs and that also enables us to increase our cost reductions related to that. On your question, what does it mean for your CapEx? I mean our fiber CapEx going forward will be around EUR 150 million-EUR 200 million a year. I think implicitly what does the rest of the EUR 1 billion look like?
Think about EUR 150 million-EUR 200 million on fiber, EUR 50 million-EUR 100 million on remaining broadband-related backhauls, some remaining copper, some service tickets or what have you. EUR 100 million will be linked to mobile. Typically every year we do spend about EUR 200 million or something, EUR 250 million on customer-related CapEx both for business and consumer. EUR 200 million-EUR 250 million digitization and the remainder tends to go into network optimization. The other question was what do we do with the customers in those fiber areas and how do you protect churn? As mostly around convergence, we have a strong convergence program. Joost talked about the Combivoordeel proposition that is really aiming to reduce churn and I think we're seeing the benefits from that. In the last Q3 and Q2, we saw churn gradually coming down.
Basically, protecting your base in these areas where other alternates are present is all about convergence, Combivoordeel, and speed upgrades where we can.
Perhaps to add, because you also asked on our position in copper areas, we have a very interesting proposition in those areas. Combining two copper lines, so bonding two copper lines for one household and adding fixed wireless access on top of that. We are developing new high speed services for the non-fiber areas and some of these are very rural areas. We are confident that we can also serve our customers in non-fiber areas in the coming years.
That's great. Thanks guys .
Thank you. Our next question is from Polo Tang of UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the presentation. I've got two questions. The first one is if you're getting EUR 100 million in new savings and you're building out your fiber footprint at a slower pace, why do you not increase your free cash flow guidance? Can you maybe just talk about what some of the offsets might be? The second question is really just on content and TV. How important a differentiator is TV for your broadband business? Can you remind us what exclusive content KPN has and what do your competitors have that is exclusive? Thanks.
Yeah. Paul, on the question, we have a net savings program of EUR 100 million. We're slowing down our fiber. I mean the slowdown of fiber is fully embedded of course in the EUR 1 billion CapEx guidance going forward. I just gave you kind of the rough break on what the EUR 1 billion consists of. I think against the net, the net index OpEx savings is an upward pressure on direct costs, so direct OpEx. That has to do with a couple of things. It's traffic and roaming related costs. It is to a large extent its content costs. It is a bit of business mix and importantly it's the increase of cost allocators to Glaspoort. You see that the Glaspoort allocated costs are increasing about EUR 25 million-EUR 30 million every year, almost 1% of EBITDA growth.
Basically, 1% of EBITDA growth is allocated towards Glaspoort that we own 50%. As long as we do not consolidate, that only shows up below the EBITDA line, not above. These numbers are all excluding Glaspoort consolidation. If you add Glaspoort consolidation, suddenly the EBITDA will jump up significantly and at some point start to add growth. The completing element of the equation, if you wish, is direct OpEx. That increase is mostly driven by content cost inflation on direct costs on product plus activation cost, but mostly the Glaspoort allocation.
Paul, on our content strategy, in my words, six years ago, seven years ago, we were doing less on infrastructure quality and we were doing less on content compared to the main competitor. Nowadays, we are running the best network in the Netherlands and we are at least on par when it comes to the content proposals. For us, it is not that we want to own exclusively content, but in Combivoordeel in households, it is very important that we facilitate our customers in the most easiest way to content, and that is done in Combivoordeel. You can select whatever you want, swap from one to the other. The choice is broad. We are an aggregator and we facilitate content to the households. We do not want to own it exclusively.
Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question is from Joshua Mills of BNP Paribas . Please go ahead.
Hi guys. Thank you for taking the question. I just wanted to firstly dig into the free cash flow growth on slide 42. It looks like the mid single digit CAGR by the end of 2030 includes a contribution from Glaspoort. Could you confirm how much that's going to be and do I understand that that's equity? Free cash flow will be consolidated once you buy Glaspoort in or does it include anything like dividend payments from Glaspoort related to that? It does look like the mid single digit free cash flow growth between 2027 and 2030 is a bit back end loaded. If you could give a bit of color there. Finally all in the same question, what would the CAGR for free cash flow, i f we just looked at the green bars, so for KPN standalone, be? Thank you.
Joshua, on the free cash flow first, if you take a look at the 2024 - 2027 period, so the current plan period, our free cash flow growth is driven obviously by EBITDA growth and a few big moving parts. Obviously, we start to pay more in interest over the entire period. Our interest expense has gone up about EUR 30 million over the entire period. We pay a lot more taxes as we burn through net operating losses towards EUR 330 million. Obviously, at the end of the period, the CapEx stepped out of EUR 250 million. Interestingly, if you look at the delta in taxes, the impact of the using of net operating losses is almost of equal size as the CapEx step down. It just happens, you know, earlier.
That means the underlying free cash flow growth over the current plan period, if you were to normalize for all these effects, is around 5%-5.5%. If you normalize for interest rates, the operating losses that we use, and the CapEx step down, and you CAGR it out, you are looking at 5%-5.5% free cash flow growth over this period, which is what KPN roughly delivers. If you then look forward to the period after that, we assume something similar like that. The numbers we present, basically all of it is mid single digit numbers. It is about KPN. It is KPN delivering that growth. Glaspoort could add about 100 basis points of CAGR over that time period, but that is back end loaded as we expect to consolidate Glaspoort towards the end of this decade. 20 28, 2029. Think about that year.
Even if you were to strip out Glaspoort, KPN standalone, which is the bulk of it, would still deliver, I would say, mid single digit free cash flow growth in line with what's, you know, what we've delivered in the past. Obviously, looking forward, there's no detailed plan towards 2030. Right. That would be. This is not a Nostradamus approach to cash flow forecasting. If you look at the moving parts of our cash flow, if you look at what's reasonable, I think it's fair to say that KPN standalone will continue to deliver, you know, similar free cash flow growth as we've done right now. That could be a kicker of about 100 basis points [CAGR] at the end of this decade as we consolidate Glaspoort. Is that, is that clear?
Yes. So you're saying that the green bars, the cacao for the cake in standalone free cash flow is still going to be mid single digit even if you don't buy in Glaspoort. [Crosstalk]
On Glaspoort, you know, the Glaspoort free cash is really the free cash flow of Glaspoort, not the dividends. The consolidated free cash flow in Glaspoort will be cash flow positive around 2028-2029 and we start to add real cash in 2030. The bulk of it is really driven by KPN and Glaspoort is the kicker that could be happening at the end of the period.
Understood, thank you.
Our next question comes from Andrew Lee of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon everyone. I wanted to follow on quite a lot of the questions on the free cash flow growth that you've guided from out to 2030 over the last couple of years. That's 2030. I hear your points on the traffic and roaming costs and content cost, but can I just maybe challenge you a little bit on the kind of middle single digit free cash flow growth? If we kind of just build the blocks of what drives that growth, I think you're kind of increasingly saying kind of 2%-2.5% service revenue growth. I know you won't explicitly guide on that now, but just bear with me on this one.
We typically get operational gearing in the sector which adds another couple of percentage points to get to EBITDA growth and then further operational gearing to get to free cash flow growth. Plus you're doing this cost transformation program. It just seems to me that the traffic and roaming costs have to be a big acceleration and content cost also seems a bit of a strange drag in terms of explaining why you're getting to kind of mid single digit free cash flow growth and a mid single digit free cash flow growth even when you include, with the kicker as you put it, the Glaspoort cost. Is there something else I'm missing or is there something specific about the traffic and roaming costs and content costs that is disproportionate for KPN versus every other telco? Thank you.
No, Andrew, I think we'll just a couple of components. It's roaming and product. Roaming cost is one thing. Content cost is one thing. It's a bit of a margin mix. Right. Some of the growth is to slightly lower margins that we take into account. It's acquisition cost in broadband that feeds in there and there's the Glaspoort allocation cost. It's a sum of multiple things. I'm not sure whether we're different from others. I think the Glaspoort element is unique. I think the other things are probably in line with what others have. We've given you a reasonably conservative feasible outlook for the midterm based on historical trends in these direct costs that we've extended and extrapolated, including the known or reasonably predictable allocation of cost to Glaspoort.
Again, the moment you consolidate that business, that suddenly comes back in and then you suddenly add about, you know, I think the moment you consolidate Glaspoort, you probably add over EUR 100 million of EBITDA overnight, you know, consolidated to the group. It is the historical trend of contribution margin and that is just, it is roaming, it is content, it is discounting, and product plus is a bit of revenue mix effects, and assess the classical allocation. Together, it all feeds into this. Numerically speaking, to give you one example, for 4% free cash flow growth, you need to get around 2% EBITDA growth.
If you get to 2.5% EBITDA growth, you quickly get to 5% free cash flow growth. That is kind of the 5% free cash flow growth, it is actually quite reasonable given the amount of EBITDA growth that we, that you have to assume for that. I hope that gives you a bit more color on the, you know, the ingredients for modeling out towards 2030.
We're building, [crosstalk] I mean the way we're building our plans on different building blocks. For us it's very important to deliver on the plans every quarter and deliver on what we promise. To project where we are in 2030 is always more difficult than to project where we are next year. Mid single digit if we meet all the targets we have built in the plans or we do better than that and then of course we can do better, but we prefer to over perform than to surprise the market in a negative way. I think it's a good plan we built with different building blocks and let's see if we can accelerate.
Thank you. Can I just ask a quick follow up? Just your obviously your 3/3/7 plan out to 2027 you had identical service revenue growth outlook and EBITDA growth outlook. Do you expect to see a very similar service revenue growth and EBITDA outlook between 2027 and 2030 as well?
I think we both explained that looking forward from 2027 to 2030 we expect top line to be lower than 3 on average for the KPN group. Of course, it's very important there to give you more guidance in 2026.
Yeah, I think it's, I mean looking forward next year we said 2%-2.5% service revenue growth. To me in the medium term 2% service revenue growth would be the lower end of what I find, you know, a reasonable expectation. Obviously who knows what the world looks like in 2030 but in terms of reasonable assumptions at least 2-2 but towards 2%-2.5% service revenue growth should be feasible and then EBITDA growth probably in line with where we are these years.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Maurice Patrick of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks for taking the question. Just one for me on the CapEx side. You have signaled you are likely going to stick around EUR 1 billion, just below EUR 1 billion CapEx for the 2026 through 2030 period. Just curious to understand if there is any sort of view in there in terms of any projects which might shift the mix of CapEx that you indicated. Things like, for example, I think you have been modestly identifying your wireless network with five and a half thousand sites now. Is there any sort of desire to kind of identify that further for growing capacity? Is there anything in there for data center related projects? People talked a lot about sovereign cloud and how that might drive a CapEx cycle. Curious for your thoughts on that.
Just one very small follow up. On slide 21, when you talk about the ongoing copper switch off, is it fair to assume that your 2030 guidance does not really assume the full benefit to the copper switch off which will come beyond that, or is that mostly baked into that guidance? Thank you.
On the copper switch off, I mean what we currently are doing is decommissioning through the Netherlands and now we want to sweep fiber areas empty up to 90% in the coming years. That's a couple of years. We already explained to the market that we run like EUR 30 million OpEx and EUR 70 million CapEx still around copper. So there's savings to do there. Also important to understand that we will keep 15%-20% of the network open, depends on where we land on the fiber rollout, and that will be an important component of the transformation program. On the CapEx mix, there's not a super capital intensive program facing us. I mean we've just, we're in the middle of rolling out fiber which is super capital intensive. Almost 23% of our revenues we invest.
It's very important for us from a certain moment to go to a more decent level. It's still 70% of CapEx we do compared to our revenues. Of course we keep on investing in mobile. We have an excellent mobile network, best in the world. The coverage is super good. You don't need 7,000 sites in the Netherlands. The Netherlands is a small flat country where we're in a good shape. There are perhaps a couple of hundreds. In the transformation programs, we already invested a lot. That's all related to AI tools, to new software. Especially in the digital customer layer we have to invest a lot. We're shifting a bit from capital intensive investments to more, less capital intensive. That's an important shift and that's why we can step down to 50.
Yeah. To add, I think mostly on the product side, the products to sell there. We look at, you know, 5G Campus, hybrid solutions, CPaaS solution with the products we have ready to be sold. That's less product development CapEx. You will see from time to time, like temporary emphasis. At some point there will be a revisit of our radio access network and RAN swap. At some point we need to think about 6G. It's far out, but at some point to think about that. At some point you have to look through your—Joost talked about our ad solutions, our data centers. We have 133 decentral locations that are, you know, very well suited for low latency and ultra low latency solutions.
You don't need to upgrade all of them but you know, 20-30 are probably eligible for an upgrade and then you take the rest more gradual. I would say in the years within the EUR 1 billion you may see shifts from time to windows of one to two years where you have different emphases and then going back again. I think underlying, gradually I see more invest into customer solutions, customer CapEx and you know, innovation for clients and next to that your network shifts from time to time depending on which part of your network is subject to an upgrade or redevelopment.
Just very quickly. There's things like, things like a potential [Rand] swap. That does sit inside the EUR 1 billion number.
Yes , that's all inside. That will all be done inside the EUR 1 billion. That's something you can time. It's all inside the EUR 1 billion envelope.
Thank you.
We'll now take our next question from David Wright of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. It's maybe a little apology here because I'm still a bit confused, maybe my colleagues aren't. There's a lot of numbers being thrown around. Just to confirm that you said on 2026 you could look for 2.5% free cash flow growth, I think is what you said. You also said an EUR 80 million step up in cash tax. I just wanted to double check. Are there any other kind of cash items playing in that that allows you to get that 2.5%? It just seems that that cash tax step up, it's a struggle to get there. Maybe I'm just confused.
Twenty, the longer term CapEx guidance, I think you've said historically that Glaspoort when consolidated could have EUR 50 million or so of CapEx. When you said below EUR 1 billion for the kind of 2027 outlook, I assume then that could shift back above EUR 1 billion a little as you take Glaspoort on in 2029-2030, is that reasonable? Thank you.
Yeah. So David, on next year, on 2026, we said about, I think, free cash flow growth. What I would do, I would take this year's guidance, I would take out the IPR benefits because that's a one-off, and then add about 2%-2.5% free cash flow growth for next year in that. Indeed, we will absorb a cash tax increase. Basically, what happens is that the cash income from EBITDA will, to a significant extent, be absorbed by, you know, increasing taxes, and then we have to optimize interest rates, working capital around it to compensate for that. The numbers are aligned. You take the 2025 outlook, take out the IPR benefits, add 2%-2.5% growth, that's the bottom line number. In that is a sum of your EBITDA growth and cash tax increase.
Possibly a bit better on interest rate savings, possibly a bit better on what I call the [get other ]. There is working capital optimization that allows us to leave us to get there.
Would you mind, Chris, just give us that. Could you just remind us of that one off impact just so we can literally get these numbers on the nose?
It's about EUR 20 million. Basically, it's the IPR benefits and EBITDA minus the withholding taxes we pay on that. About EUR 20 million.
That's right. Got it.
For CapEx, look, could CapEx in 2029-2030 be a bit above EUR 1 billion? Possibly, but that is a relatively small amount to us. Frankly, keeping at EUR 1 billion is a pretty sacrosanct number. We will do everything we can to stay within that envelope and anything you asked us to solve inside the EUR 1 billion. What the Glaspoort CapEx is in 2030, it is hard to see. I think EUR 50 million is probably really at the higher end, but that is not embedded in the language we use to describe our CapEx, so to speak. Basically, we are running towards or below EUR 1 billion next year, run at EUR 1 billion, and perhaps in 2030 there will be a little add-on from Glaspoort. That should be a very manageable amount.
Chris, just if I could, if I could just sneak in, just a quick question. You mentioned about you could consider balance sheet recapitalization from 2027. What will be the factors that support that decision? Will it be the fiber build out is where you expect obviously, you know, the operational performance. Is there anything else or do we just get to 2027 and say yeah we're in line with guide, we can nudge up and are we talking, you know, a quarter of a turn? Are you able to get any granularity on that? Appreciate it.
Yeah, sure. Look, maybe one more point on Glaspoort. We will consider Glaspoort as soon as it's not if it's cash flow negative. Right. So the trigger for consolidating Glaspoort is probably a cash flow neutral to cash flow positive. So that whatever CapEx Glaspoort then brings in it will be compensated by operating cash flow as well. So basically we will look at the free cash generation of Glaspoort as the trigger for consolidation. If at that point Glaspoort were to add a bit of CapEx it would in the end have to bring in a positive free cash flow number. I mean that's the trigger. Maybe that gives you a little bit more comfortable on that effect on leverage. Look after 2027, the way I look at KPN is we have a balance sheet full with very high quality modern assets. Right.
A 5G fiber network. Our operating cash generation is down amongst the highest in European operating cash flow over margins about 30% cash turn. EBITDA minus CapEx over EBITDA is about 60% of a highly cash generative business. By that I think we were able to run this business with a slightly higher leverage than we run today organically if you would not do anything, if you just let the whole thing run its course just by the sheer increase of EBITDA you would say that our leverage ratio moves towards 2.1x-2.2 x at the end of this decade. That is how it models out. Consolidating Glaspoort will give about full consolidation about 0.3 x leverage, will get you to 2.4x. I think this group should run with a leverage below 3x.
I mean that would be wise that we consider to be investment grade but with reasonable margin below 3x is what this business could sustain after the fiber rollout has peaked. When you have this high quality asset base, the massive amount of cash generation this business could run with, I don't know what the number is, around 2.8x-ish types of leverage I think, and that will give us a lot of flexibility to both absorb Glaspoort and be willing and able to invest and gives us some strategic and financial flexibility. That of course assumes at that point that Glaspoort brings in net cash.
That's awesome. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from, sorry, Ajay Soni of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking the questions. I've got two. The first is on mission critical. We've heard this a lot from other telcos. What are the size of these revenues now? I think you mentioned 10% growth here. How material is this to the overall group growth you're seeing? The second question was just around the increasing of the leverage beyond 2027. Just using the numbers you've just spoken about, at the end of 2030 you have a leverage of 2.4 x, let's say, which still gives you 0.4 x of leverage to play with. What would you use extra leverage for? Is it extraordinary returns? Is it other projects? A bit of guidance there would be helpful, thank you.
Yeah. In our B2B organization we have a group of people responsible for mission critical services, very closely connected to the government, business is growing double digit, we're doing excellent and we're selected as the main provider for the Ministry of Defense services, etc. We have a relationship that goes back very long and we're investing into that part of the business as well. Current top line total revenues roughly around EUR 200 million. We expect that for the coming years to grow on different levels.
Yeah. To leverage. Indeed. If the numbers that you predict are kind of right, if you have like 0.4 x headroom, what would you be using it for? I mean to me the most important thing that we can safely say is KPN will return all its free cash flow to shareholders. Dividends remain really well covered. There is very little hesitance on our side to return all our free cash flow to shareholders. That is point one. Because there is balance sheet headroom either to invest, to grow, or to absorb some shocks. That is to me the first element that I would like to give. Second is what could you use the headroom for? The money would not be burning in our pockets. We would be very careful how to spend it. Obviously there is spectrum that we could. Yeah, spectrum needs to be acquired.
The remainder could be around possible small bolt- on investments. Let me reassure you, always and only when it's value creating and meets a return hurdle. Secondly, yeah, it could also be used to round off some shareholder distributions. I think it's, you know, the free cash flow return every year would really be the main part of a return to shareholders. That's also pretty, you know, safe and secured.
Great, thank you.
Thank you. We'll now move on to our next question from Paul Sidney of Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you very much for taking a couple of questions. Apologies, I did join the Q & A a little bit late, so apologies if there's any repetition. Just on fiber in terms of the rollout slowdown, part of the driver of this slowdown seems to be what your competitors are doing, what you're seeing in the market. I just wondered if you could maybe elaborate on what you're seeing and just how influential that's been on your decision to slow the rollout. Just a quick one on return on capital. You've given very good granularity in terms of free cash flow growth beyond 2027. Would you expect that ROCE metric to continue to rise beyond 2027 and kind of get well below, well above, sorry, the 15% you're targeting in 2027?
Yeah. Thank you. Six years ago people told us that the max you can do in the Netherlands on fiber rollout is roughly 350,000 homes passed per year. We challenged that and together with the Glaspoort joint venture, we went up to a level of 600,000, 700,000 one or two years per year to get to the level of 70% coverage. That is a huge operation, very well executed by our people. It is also very important to go to a more moderate pace to get things better in control. That comes to the quality, steering the customer, first time right delivery, optimizing our operating model. You cannot just push that forever. Also taking into account alt nets stopped selecting new areas. Also taking into account 90% of the Netherlands is done. We now move to a more moderate rollout pace.
Smart and really connected to the transformation programs, c opper switch off to facilitate that. I think it's optimizing value. We move from home spots to really connect and activate. I mean we pass 70% of the Netherlands, but a lot of these customers are still not on KPN or on a wholesale customer of ours. There is a lot to do to activate more customers. That's what we show somewhere in the presentations. Activations of 60% in the areas before 2019 to 40% in the areas where we recently built. There is also a lot to do to improve the penetration because the whole business case on fiber is about penetration. All in all, in a more moderate pace we will end up 80%, north from 80%. We set the target on 85%, somewhere in between.
I think it's the best strategy for the coming years also to get more control on our transformation programs.
Yeah, and Paul, your question on return on capital, what could it do beyond 2027? First of all, we're pretty pleased with reaching 15%, so about 700 - 800 basis points above the cost of capital. It is clearly consistent with to create value. If you look at the moving parts beyond 2027, it is of course the continued CapEx first depreciation. I think we'll continue to invest a little bit more than we depreciate, so that extends our balance sheet a bit. That is a bit of a negative maybe on return on capital in the short term. At the same time, as Joost said, we'll be getting more penetration on our fiber networks, getting more uses of our other networks like in mobile, there is growth in wholesale and in B2B, growth in IoT, CPaaS, 5G Campus. It is more about the usage of our assets.
My estimate would be to stay north of 15% with some opportunity for some small growth. I don't see us immediately go to 20% but a gradual increase of ROCE from 15% gradually drifting upwards. That will not be impossible but certainly consistent with creating value.
A quick follow up, Joost, on your answer in terms of, you mentioned the altnets, but what about VodafoneZiggo? What are you seeing in terms of their build out and how concerned are you about what they're doing in terms of investment looking forward?
They announced some kind of a new strategy where they will launch higher speed connectivity via their own network by upgrading the network and they mentioned 2 gig or 4 gig if I'm not mistaken. That's probably not bad for the Dutch market in the first place and something that's really a challenge for them but that's up to them. We follow our own plans mainly. We sell 1 gig and 4 gig on our fiber network but that's symmetrical. On their side it's always upload max to 100 and everything they say is a max too. For us it's confirmed speeds up and down. At the end, like I always say, they're always welcome to talk to us, to join us on our fiber network.
That's very clear. Thank you both.
Our next question comes from Ottavio Adorisio of Bernstein. Please go ahead, Ottavio. You might want to check on your audio if it's muted. Ottavio, your line is open.
Operator.
We'll now move on to our next question from Siyi He of Citi. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two, please. The first question is really on the combined discount that you're offering to the consumers. I think in Q3 we've seen that ARPU in both mobile and fixed consumers has been flattish and under pressure. By the look of it, as long as you're pushing the penetration of combined services, it seems that there is going to be some pressure on ARPU. I am just wondering if you can help us to think in the coming quarters about the development of ARPU in consumers and how long you think investors will see some ARPU increase in consumers. My second question is on the fiber deployments. I think your mid term target is 85%.
I guess some of them you could consider consolidating some of the existing fiber in the market. Just wondering if you can talk about potential opportunities on that which could bring forward the fiber deployment before 2030. Thank you.
Yeah, for us the question in some cases rises, buy or build. Sometimes there's a third party fiber network available willing to sell to us and then of course we are willing to start negotiations. That's also what we did in the past years. There's still a couple of opportunities out there in the market and already for a very long time we are waiting for a clear signal from our regulator about a deal between our joint venture Glaspoort and Delta Fiber where the joint venture is trying to acquire roughly 220,000 households from Delta. Yes, we are always interested in M & A when it comes to fiber assets. Of course, it depends on the price, but also in some cases depends on our regulator.
That is always a bit of a very long discussion here in the Netherlands, at least. On consumer, yeah, the whole Combivoordeel strategy of us is different than what the challengers do. That is more an acquisition kind of strategy where you really try to push in the net. That is growth. We are now really investing in our customer base by Combivoordeel. Like we showed in the presentation, that is an upfront investment that will be shown later on. We have to be patient when it comes to this kind of a strategy because it is all about churn reduction instead of the acquisition numbers. I am positive here because the first signals are good. Churn is going down. ARPU is a bit under pressure.
That also has to do with back book, front book migrations, and all these additional services we're doing in a Combivoordeel . We increased prices, but that's only visible for 1.5% while the increase was something like 3%. All that has to do with mainly the investments we do in our customer base and back book front movements related to that, by the way.
Yeah, to that. On the Combivoordeel. The proposition is when you combine more, get more. So if your existing customer has multiple products, you get like combination advantages like you get a free Netflix or other services. As Joost said, it's really aimed at your base, at loyalty, at churn, not to acquire customers. Obviously, in the first years that will cost us. I mean, think about, for example, is that in Q4, I would expect fiber service revenue growth in Q4 to be 0.4% and there's like 80 basis points to one drag from this amount of money next year that will probably continue. It's embedded in a 1.5% consumer service revenue growth. The 1.5%, including the Combivoordeel or the Combi Advantage, the Combi Benefit program. The net number is 1.5% for consumers all.
I would think that fiber as such will probably grow 0.5% per quarter. You could see gradual movement probably improving in the second half of next year into 2027, when, you know, the churn benefits start to outweigh actually the annual spend. It is a situation where, you know, the investment goes first, the benefits come later. To me, the key message is think about, you know, the fixed side of things to grow by 0.4%-0.5% with like 80 basis points to 1% drag on reported service revenues. It is embedded, included in a 1.5% guidance for consumer for next year. I was expecting 2027, you would see the churn benefit to gradually outweigh the cost of the program.
Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from David Vagman of ING. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon everyone, and thanks for taking my question. The first one, maybe just a clarification because you've already partly answered my question but on the 85% coverage by 2030, could you explain or give a bit more clarification how you intend to get these additional 15% over five years' time. Is it all organic? And by that I mean KPN. Do you have in mind some M&A? Is it also Glaspoort, which is about to expand its footprint, and then does it imply basically also that you get some other build with Delta Fiber? That's my first question.
Second question and sorry to come back on Glaspoort and on the contribution to the free cash flow growth by 2030. I would have expected Glaspoort to contribute a bit more given that you have wholesale cost, I think by 2027 of guided EUR 150 million, and I would have thought that the CapEx of Glaspoort would have come down really significantly after they [hold out].
Yeah, so we said we're going to a more moderate rollout pace when it comes to fiber. Very much needed to get the operational quality higher. We will get to the 80% but later in time. If it's going to be 85% without any M & A, I don't think so. Organically we will roll out to at least 80%, up north from 80%, but if we would really hit for the number 85% we probably need some small M & A. We would like to set ourselves, well, a firm target where you have to work on.
Yeah, on Glaspoort on your question. Look, when you look at the CapEx profile and the rollout profile of Glaspoort going forward, about 2027 will be the last year for Glaspoort on the retail rollout so the peak will be next year and some retail rollout remainder in 2027. In 2028 we expect Glaspoort to do some fiber, road and business parks, some more fiber to the business and business park fiber and thereafter it's pretty scaled down reasonably quickly. That means that in principle if you were to consolidate that the EBITDA contribution of Glaspoort would quickly be EUR 100 million plus but there's still CapEx in 2028 mostly around the B2B program that they're running and B2B is mostly around business parks and those tend to be relatively high cost per HP connections.
That means that Glaspoort really in 2028 will probably still be cash flow negative, will be cash flow positive in 2030 and substantially more positive in 2029 and a lot more positive in 2030. That is kind of the cash flow profile of Glaspoort mainly to do it in 2028. I'd expect them to continue to invest or to finish the program around the B2B side, which is quite capital intensive. Obviously we're in continued discussion with them to see how we can accelerate and fast track. This is the base plan. If we can do faster, obviously we won't hesitate. This is the base plan for Glaspoort, which means that probably be cash flow positive really in 2029 and significantly cash flow positive in 2030.
Okay, thanks very much.
Thank you. The final question is from Ottavio of Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi, could you hear me now?
Not anymore. Ottavio?
Is this any better? Hi, can you hear me now?
Yeah, don't move, just talk.
Perfect. That's grand. Sorry about the hassle. Yeah, my question is a follow-up from the previous one. We'll start from Glaspoort. You give a lot of details about the impact on consolidations. Now the main impact will be on the debt Glaspoort is basically having on the books. Could you tell us how much you would pay for the equity? You will be increasing the gearing. You said that anyway your cash flow will be better quality by then. Have you already engaged with the agencies? Will they be happy with 2.8x roughly net debt to EBITDA going forward? Moving to the second one on the OpEx, you effectively give a lot of visibility in terms of the cost cutting between 2025 and 2030 and the EUR 100 million savings on the indirect topics.
My question is that how much of this is already embedded on the 2027 guidance and how much will be delivered between 2027, 2030. The third one, i t's on the targets for 2030. You provide tons of numbers. But my question is about how you're going to achieve these numbers. A bit of ground light on the KPI. It looks that you are confident on winning market shares from the cables. But it's very likely that VodafoneZiggo will continue repricing. They're not happy to lose a line. Do you have embedded in your guidance any potential repricing on the broadband markets? Potential from Odido. And what about wholesale? There is any loss you project to the ultimates or only gains. Because it looks to me that on your wholesale segments you effectively project wholesale new customers coming in rather than losses on the wholesale side. Thank you.
Yeah. The first question on Glaspoort on the consolidate, we basically will buy the consolidating shares so there will be no equity out for consolidation. There's the one remaining share, which is the price of one share. That would not require any additional investments, it's the one consolidating share. On leverage, look, when you look at our leverage today, I think we're on the safer end in the rating agency bandwidth. That's also what we understood talking to them. I would say if you want to stay below 3 with a certain buffer, we'd stay safely in the investment grade range. I mean, already today we're in the safer end of our range today. I think a moderate increase as we discussed should be well absorbable and achievable within the current rating band.
Maybe on the, on the third question on 2023, look, we give one number. It's a free cash flow. There are lots of moving parts in there. But the free cash flow, what we think we can get, and obviously there might be, compared to the current expectations, you know, some number moving towards a bit to the left, some number moves a bit to the right. I think the continuation of mid single-digit free cash flow growth is feasible, given various scenarios and permutations on the numbers. Do we think it will be repricing in broadband? Who knows? It might be at this point. That's not in the cards. We do not project or plan for repricing of broadband. I do not think there's any necessity to it because, you know, pricing in the Netherlands is in line with European markets.
We've done some studies, even the Ministry of Economic Affairs has done work against that and shown that interest in a broadband pricing analysis really is average compared to the rest of Europe. Losing also to alt nets, that's relatively limited at this point. You've obviously noticed that there's some line losses in broadband which really has to do with the repricing of the [telecom] from our main customer. We'd expect that to be ending in the first quarter of next year. When you assess the overlap between what I say, the copper-based that we overbuilt, risk to our wholesale portfolio is relatively small after that. I mean, there's some overlap, but we think that's probably be able to, we can counter that with a combination of growth in fiber, annual indexation, a mix effect, shifting from copper to fiber.
That whole set of developments could probably counter any risk of alt nets in wholesale. To me first, could there be repricing on broadband? We can never rule anything out, but it is not in the plans. Certainly we do not intend to initiate that and we think there is no need. When you look at pricing in the country and wholesale, as I said, there is a line loss we have gone through, probably go through in Q1 next year, but after that it feels that actually could be stabilizing quite neatly. The amount of remaining overlap is actually limited.
Yeah. On the only OpEx savings you mentioned, it's gradually growing and its typical OpEx savings in one year are more. The real effect is the year after, it's almost doubled then. Take 2025. No, let's take last year. We saw the indirect costs increasing and that's because CLAs went up due to inflation. All kinds of costs went up. So it was a cost uplift of almost 5%, 6%. We have to fight against that first and then step down. That's what we do this year. This year we will be more flat on the cost and that's already saving a lot to equalize that.
All these price increases we see as headwind and the effect of that will be better next year because this year we do like 300 FTE reduction, but that's also done in the last six months of the year. Next year for the full 12 months. Typically a program like this will be a first step down of 10%, 15% visible first flats and 10%, 15%. If we do very good, 20% perhaps, and then we go faster on the cost savings because of the effect as well and also because of the programs we run and coming more to an end.
Very quick on Glaspoort, you only buy one share. So effectively the remaining will be minorities. So this minority will have any put options to sell at some stage, and I guess they will be, they want to be served, they will be paying any dividends. Glaspoort to these minorities.
Yes. There is no put option. Basically, it is a call option and I think our co-shareholder is in it for the long term to, you know, to enjoy the yield that this business gives. The plan is for the dividends of Glaspoort to be equal to the cash that it generates. Possibly think about how you use the debt on that balance sheet. The whole thing is that the dividend of Glaspoort would definitely be equal to the cash it generates.
Thank you very much.
Okay, thank you all for your questions. Joost, Chris, thank you. That concludes today's session. In case of any questions, do not hesitate to reach out to the investor relations team. Thank you all.