Hello, and welcome to the Signify Q3 Results 2024 . Throughout the call, all participants will be in listen-only mode, and afterwards there will be a question and answer session. Please note this is limited to one question plus one follow-up. Today, I am pleased to present Eric Rondolat, CEO, Željko Kosanović, CFO, and Thelke Gerdes, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead with your meeting.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Signify's earnings call for the Q3 two thousand and twenty-four. With me today are Eric Rondolat, CEO of Signify, and Željko Kosanović, the CFO. During this call, Eric will first take you through the Q3 highlights, after which Željko will present the company's Q3 financial performance. Eric will then come back to discuss the outlook for the remainder of the year, and after that, we'll be happy to take your questions. Our press release and presentation were published at seven o'clock this morning. Both documents are available for download from our investor relations website. The transcript of this conference call will be made available as soon as possible. And with that, I hand over to Eric.
Thank you, Thelke. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Let's start with some highlights from the Q3 of 2024 on slide four, so we grew our installed base of connected lighting points to 139 million, and our LED-based sales reached 90% of total sales, compared to 85% one year ago. As anticipated, our top line improved sequentially in the quarter, with a comparable sales decline of 5.2%. Our teams effectively managed the rapid decline of our conventional business and the ongoing headwinds in the Chinese market. Without these two challenges, our decline would have been limited to 1.3%. Given the decreasing contribution of our conventional business to EBITA, our bottom line showed good resilience.
Our cost reduction program began to yield the expected benefits, resulting in an Adjusted EBITA margin of 10.5% for the whole quarter. We considerably lowered our adjusted items, thanks to consistently reducing restructuring costs, along with the sizable one-off tax benefits. This resulted in robust net income growth of 30%. Additionally, our ongoing focus on cash conversion led to strong free cash flow generation for the quarter. I will now move to the performance of our four businesses. Let's start with the professional business on slide five. Nominal sales were EUR 995 million, with comparable sales showing a decline of 4.1%. We saw the expected recovery of our agricultural business and continued growth for connected lighting. Our business in China, as well as in Europe, remained weak.
Southern and Eastern Europe, along with the distribution channel, retail and hospitality sectors were soft, while we saw a strong performance from the Nordics. An expansion of our gross margin was driven by the positive sales mix, bill of material savings and concept savings, with which more than compensated for price pressure in some parts of the business. Our professional business achieved an Adjusted EBITA margin improvement of 20 basis points to 10.8%, primarily due to gross margin improvement and cost reductions as the benefits of our cost reduction program began to materialize. Our performance in the Q3 illustrates the operating leverage this business is capable of, even as top line pressure persists in some markets. Let's move to the consumer business on slide six. Comparable sales decreased by 1.8% to 304 million EUR.
Excluding China, our consumer business delivered a comparable sales growth of 2.6%, reflecting the recovery across all other regions. Our China business, which is mostly an export business, showed a strong performance during the quarter. The adjusted EBITA margin decreased by 120 basis points to 7.6%, mostly due to China and higher transportation costs. Continuing with the OEM business on slide seven. Our OEM business delivered a strong performance in Q3, particularly in Europe. The growth in Q3 came despite the impact of customer in sourcing in the US. This illustrates further the rebound of this business in 2024 . Comparable sales increased by 0.2%. The adjusted EBITA margin increased by 300 basis points to 15.2%, including a one-time effect of around 200 basis points.
EBITA also benefited from the expansion of our gross margin through bill of material savings and productivity gains. Finally, the business achieved overall reductions in line with our cost reduction program. And finally, the conventional business on slide eight. Comparable sales showed a decline of 29.4%, still affected by the fluorescent bans in Europe that came into effect last year. In addition, some U.S. states, including California, have announced sales ban to be implemented starting January first. The adjusted EBITA margin declined by 160 basis points to 19.3%, as the negative volume effect was partly compensated by cost saving. On the next slide, which is slide nine, I would like to discuss a couple of business highlights. Starting with the Atlantis Resort in Dubai.
The lighting system that we have implemented enables seamless control of lighting and other third-party applications. It enhances guest experience with circadian lighting that supports guests' well-being during their stay. We also expanded our partnership with Great Lakes Greenhouses, installing our GreenPower LED solution, integrated with our GrowWise control system. The integration maximizes crop production and energy efficiency by up to 40%, enhancing crop quality while simplifying greenhouse management. In the consumer business, we announced the highly anticipated second generation Philips Hue 8K Sync Box, and the upgraded device allows users to sync and stream the highest quality content with no latency, at ultra-fast refresh rates, and with very high resolution, offering an enhanced experience for gamers.
Following its launch, we have seen some excellent reviews and feedback from the media and consumers, who are praising the performance and enhanced features.
Finally, in the OEM business, we entered a partnership with Finnish design company, Secto Design, integrating our Philips Core LED lamp into Secto Design iconic wood luminaires. This allows consumers to adjust the color temperature of the lighting fixture via a switch integrated into the body of the lamp. Next, I would like to discuss our sustainability performance on slide 10. In the Q3 of the year, we continued to advance on our Brighter Lives, Better World 2025 sustainability program commitments. We are on schedule first to achieve our 2025 target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Circular revenues increased to 36.7%. The main contribution coming from professional serviceable luminaires in the Americas. Brighter Lives revenues remain at 31%, with a strong contribution from consumer products, mainly EyeComfort, that support health and well-being.
Finally, the percentage of women in leadership positions remained at 29%. We continue our efforts to increase the overall representation of women in our business through focused hiring practices for diversity across all levels. Let me now hand over to Željko, who will take you through our Q3 financial performance, and also the highlights for the first half of the year.
Thank you, Eric, and good morning to everyone on the call. It's my pleasure to present our Q3 2024 results this morning. Let me dive straight into the financial highlights on slide 12, where we are showing the Adjusted EBITA margin bridge for total Signify. The Adjusted EBITA margin decreased by 20 basis points from 10.7% in Q3 2023 to 10.5% in Q3 this year, as a strong 90 basis points gross margin improvement was offset by the negative impact from a volume decline. Looking at the bridge in more detail, the negative volume effect was 130 basis points. Notably, this effect has been gradually diminishing throughout the year as parts of our business have returned to growth. The combined effect of price and mix was a negative 200 basis points.
A negative pricing in parts of our business was partially compensated by positive sales mix. Across all businesses, price trends remained largely unchanged in the Q3 compared to Q2. We continue to face price pressure, pricing pressure in China, India, and parts of Europe, while experiencing a more stable pricing environment in North America and within our conventional business. Cost of goods sold improvements accelerated to 230 basis points as we continue to benefit from bill of material savings, productivity gains, and other cost reductions. The currency and other effects are the small positive contribution of 10 basis points each. Adjusted indirect cost savings had a positive effect of 50 basis points, reflecting increased benefits from the implementation of our cost reduction program.
With the effect of cost reduction program gaining momentum in the Q3, we have observed sequential improvements.
Adjusted indirect costs, which were 33.5% of sales in the Q2 , an increase of 170 basis points year on year, have decreased to 31.3% in the Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of only 110 basis points. We do anticipate reaching our run rate target in the Q4 as cost savings continue to ramp up. On slide 13, I would like to discuss our working capital performance during the quarter. Compared to the end of September 2023, our working capital reduced by EUR 152 million or by 140 basis points, from 9.1% to 7.7% of sales. Inventories decreased by EUR 158 million, mainly from improving supply chain lead times.
Receivables reduced by EUR 114 million, due to both our efforts to minimize overages and due to the lower year-on-year sales level. Payables were EUR 124 million lower, being a logical consequence of driving down our inventory, while structural payment terms remains largely unchanged. Other items further reduced working capital by EUR 6 million.... With that, I would like to hand back to Eric to wrap up on the outlook and the closing remarks.
Yeah, thanks, Željko. Let's conclude with the outlook on slide 15. So we confirm our guidance for an adjusted EBIT margin at the lower end of the 10%-10.5% range, and free cash flow generation of 6%-7% of sales for the whole of 2024. And with that, I hand it back to the operator for your questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Kindly be reminded, this is limited to one question plus one follow-up. Thank you. We will now take our first question from Akash Gupta of J.P. Morgan. The line is open, please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good morning, everybody. Thanks for your time. My first one is on general inventory, and maybe if you can talk about what sort of promotional activity you are expecting in Q4 . And on the same topic, can you help us walk through how shall we think about revenue growth expectations in Q4, where I guess China may see some benefit from the recent stimulus measures, and professional things are bottoming out there. Maybe if you can help us walk through how shall we think about the near term, and any comment on channel inventory and promotional activity? Thank you.
Yes, good morning, Akash. Look, the inventory has been fluctuating, you know, during the year at a level that we believe is not the optimum level. So we still believe that the working capital can be improved by inventory decrease. You know, for Q4, there are not specific, you know, promotional activities in twenty twenty-four that would be radically different than during the previous years. Of course, you know, you have, especially on the consumer side of the business, some specific events in Q4, you know, with big promotional, you know, activities for our retailers and online retailers, and we do that, you know, as we do every year. So nothing really specific.
Now, what we do for the inventory, you know, we look at the quality of our inventory, and we have no specific actions of, on inventory, which is slow-moving, but I would say that's in the normal course of business. When it comes to the inventory in the channel, the inventory in the channel is at the right level. Probably, you know, we have a specific case in Europe where the business has been very slow, where we have seen our distribution channel, you know, further reducing, in absolute value, their inventory, but putting it more, you know, in line with the percentage of sales that they expect coming forward.
On revenue growth expectation, you know, what we have said since we started the year, that we would see an improvement, you know, in our top line, quarter after quarter, and that's what we did since Q2, you know, showed a better performance than Q1, and Q3 shows a better performance than Q2. And we expect to see the same in Q4. On the China stimulus that has been effectively communicated by the government, we see a potential, you know, indirect impact because at this point in time, it's not really on lighting, it's more on, you know, different sorts of domestic appliance. But we believe there should be an indirect positive impact on our consumer sales.
It still needs to be seen, but that's, you know, talking to experts, what we expect in terms of impact. As far as the professional business is concerned, you know, there are different types of stimulus in the different countries, not only Europe and the States, especially on outdoor, you know, infrastructure that we try to capture locally.
Thank you, and my follow-up question is on phasing of savings. So when I look at your margin bridge, indirect cost was 0.5% tailwind, but I guess in earlier quarter it was 0.8%. So, on one side, your savings should rise as we go from one quarter to the other, but when we look at the indirect cost tailwind, it is lower than it was before. So maybe you can tell us about where shall we expect these savings to fall in your bridge, and you can also comment about phasing of these restructuring savings. Thank you.
Yeah. Good morning, Akash. Yeah, so on the implementation of our cost reduction plan, so it is proceeding and happening as we plan. We are confirming, so to your question on the phasing of the savings, so we confirm, as we had indicated earlier, that two-thirds of the savings towards the EUR 200 million gross savings run rate, so two-thirds will be captured in 2024, with an acceleration that we saw in Q3, and that is expected to pursue in Q4. And that will lead to a full savings being implemented to 100% in 2025.
We are on track with that dynamic of capture of the savings, which will be reflected in the evolution of our profitability in the Q4 .
Thank you.
Thank you. And we will now take our next question from Martin Wilkie of Citi. The line is open, please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, it's Martin from Citi. The first question I had was just coming back to pricing. Obviously, you've mentioned negative pricing in certain categories, but to link that back to your inventory comments, when you think forward to 2025, is there an expectation that as those channel inventories normalize, that negative pricing eases somewhat? Or how do you think about the pricing trajectory as you go into next year? Is this a level we should continue to expect or something that's more of a blip in the second half? Thank you.
Yes, good morning, Martin. You know, what we've seen on the pricing. First, you know, we look more at the gross margin, and that's what Željko explained. But, you know, if you look at the pricing, the pricing is also linked to the cost and the cost of the bill of material. What we have seen lately and, you know, starting H2, is some pressure on the price of components, so the cost to us. Basically, we've seen price of metal, price of plastic, price of transportation going up. So that has translated to, you know, less price erosion than what we would have, you know, originally estimated. So the consequence is, you see that the gross margin is very resilient and clearly above 40%.
Now, moving forward, we think we can still extract, you know, costs from the bill of material, you know, on some commodities, which is giving us, you know, a good confidence on the growth margin, moving forward. If you look at the pricing, of course, quarter last year to quarter this year, the price is still, you know, negative. There's an impact of the negative price. But if we look quarter to quarter, which is Q3 to Q2 or Q2 to Q3, you know, there's much less impact on price. That's a good thing to see, not only for Q3, but for the upcoming quarters.
Great. Thank you. And as kind of a follow-up, just coming back to China, and obviously we've seen many companies having challenges in China over the last few quarters, but when you look at your industry, do you think you're in line with the overall market, or have there been market share shifts, or, you know, how should we think about that softness in China, for you versus the overall market? Thank you.
Yeah, Martin, you know, we communicated very early on in the year, you know, on China, and probably China has been, for us, in twenty twenty-four, you know, a bit of a surprise to see that the market was suffering from, you know, so many headwinds. You know, I've communicated on why, you know, on the professional side, but also, you know, on the consumer side. So I went to China myself, and I talked to companies that are operating locally. So what happened in our industry is you know, when there's an issue from an economic standpoint, I mean, lighting can be stopped, you know, very quickly. You know, that's linked to how projects, you know, normally are unfolding.
So that's why we saw probably, especially on the professional side of the market, that we were hit, you know, before, you know, other industries that are connected to ours. But when you look at what is happening today, I think everybody's saying the same thing. From an industry standpoint, I mean, we're not gaining, we're not losing market share. Now, we have in China also a small market share because compared to the rest of the world, because it's a market which is very, very fragmented. Now, there's maybe one peculiarity in our industry, Martin, is that there are a lot of actors in the lighting industry that are operating out of China. And as they are also limited in their export, they turn themselves more to the internal market.
So what we saw in China, on top of a difficult, you know, volume trend, we saw also a quite competitive environment with price erosion. So maybe that's an element which is a bit more specific to the lighting industry, given the number of players that are, you know, acting in that field in China.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you, and we will now move on to our next question from Marc Hesselink of ING. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. I think in the first half of the year, you pointed out that Americas was relatively strong compared to the other regions. Is that still the case in the Q3, in your expectations for the Q4 ?
Yes, Marc, we have seen Americas being at the level of performance, which is, you know, higher than Europe, and of course, China. We still expect that to be the case in Q4. I would say that probably market that does better than the Americas today is India for us.
Okay. Okay, yeah, thanks. And then, the second question is, on your Adjusted EBITA margin for the Q4. I think you partly addressed it with the, with the cost savings, kicking in higher, but I think you still need a quite significant uplift, in the margin year over year, especially because of the trend that we've seen in the, in the first nine months of the year. So maybe can you just maybe explain the moving parts, on top of the, on top of the cost saving that should drive it in the year-on-year improvement?
You're talking about the adjusted EBITA margin?
Yes, for the Q4. I mean, to get to the low end of the range, I think you need almost a percentage point improvement in the Q4.
... Yep, so Mark, indeed, we expect effectively to expand in Q4 our Adjusted EBITA margin year over year, and this will be achieved through four main elements. First, the continued gross margin discipline, driving in the same way we've been able to do for the first nine months the dynamic of price and cost in balance to ensure the continued robustness of our gross margin. So that's one. Second, and of course, we do see and as we observe a certain level of stabilization on the pricing pressure sequentially, quarter over quarter. That's what we saw in Q3, and we expect that in especially in Q4.
Then at the same time, the carryover and accelerating effects of the savings as a consequence of our restructuring program to come through. And last, the sequential improvement on our top line, which, of course, helps on the better dilution of our costs. So that's... And as we always have a higher volume in Q4, so all in combination is to improve our EBITA, adjusted EBITA margin in the Q4.
Okay, thank you.
Q3 is just as an element to the path. Q3 Adjusted EBITA progression was ahead of our plan towards the full year, so we have all the elements which are conducive to maintain the dynamic towards the achievement of the guidance that we have confirmed.
Thank you, and we will now move on to our next question from Tim Ehlers of Kepler Cheuvreux. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. The first one would be about the margins in consumer, where you, well, was basically the only division, apart from conventional, where you saw a margin decline. Could you maybe elaborate a little bit on that drop, and how we should view that margin going forward?
Yes, Tim, good morning. Yeah, situation in conventional is also comparing to a very high base, you know, last year, but at 19%, still, it's still a very comfortable position. Now, when we go to consumer, there are two fundamental elements that are impacting the profitability performance in Q3. So one is the increase of transportation costs. Now, the consumer business is a much more global business, so we produce a percentage of that business, which is probably higher than the other ones in China. We have seen also the good performance of Klite during the quarter.
We have seen an immediate increase of our cost of transportation, and they're impacting quite substantially, you know, the performance in adjusted EBIT versus last year. The second component is China. Now, China is probably between, depending on the quarters, you know, 5%-7% of our overall business. But it has a much more important impact on our consumer business than on our professional business. When we saw the decline of our business in China, of our consumer business in China, it was also at a lower level of profitability than where China was normally performing, and that has also impacted our overall consumer business.
If you look at the difference between where we were last year and where we are this year, which is about, you know, one hundred basis points, it is due to these two factors: higher cost of transportation and the negative drag on the bottom line of China.
Okay, clear. Thanks. But, well, would recovery be linked to recovery in China then? Because I guess the higher transportation costs will be around for a bit, at least. So in order to get back to 8.5%-9% range, you know, but regardless of the top line development, there would need to be a recovery in China, I assume.
We're doing two things. So first, we're working on our PNL in China to improve it, but we'll need also the volume in China to come back to be able to fully recover, you know, at the level of China. Now, could there be compensation from the other regions? Potentially, yes. We need also to reflect the cost of transportation in our price. So, you know, a few actions are in place in order to try to compensate these drags.
Okay, thanks a lot. I have a few other questions, but I first move back in line. Thanks a lot, Eric.
Thank you.
Thank you. And we will now take our next question from Daniela Costa at Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Yeah, I have two questions as well. The first one, just on, if you could talk a little bit more about horticulture. I guess earlier in the year, you had mentioned the orders were improving because the energy prices were lower. Now, this is contributing positively to professional. We've seen some energy price increases. How do you see the forward on horticulture and how significant for the coming quarters?
As we said, you know, we were expecting horticulture. Oh, good morning, Daniela, first. You know, as we expected, horticulture to be a positive contributor on the side of professionals for Q3, it has been the case, linked to probably two different phenomena. The first one is that it happened late in Q3 last year, and that we've seen a very strong progression of our horticulture business also linked to the fact that we have new offers, you know, coming on the market, you know, answering to the need of the growers. So after, you know, two years where that industry had gone substantially down, it is clearly rebounding. We had, you know, the illustration of that, or we had clearly the view that it would happen in Q1.
You know, we know the dynamic. It's a H2-based business. Now, at this point in time, we still have for the remaining quarter of the year, the Q4, you know, strong backlog. We need to produce it to invoice it during the quarter, but we see still a strong contribution of that business. You know, we have also the cannabis part of the business that has been down for many, many years, you know, linked to, you know, over production, you know, especially in the US. We see also that business turning around, which is, you know, a very good news, albeit still on a low base.
So when I look at the different components that are making our horticulture business at this point in time, we're quite optimistic because we see the market turn around, and we're also optimistic because we see a clear backlog. So, you know, at the end of the day, it is happening pretty much in line with what we had described at the time.
Thank you. And then my second question is just more in terms of, like, balance sheet priorities as you deliver, and obviously sort of like observing the shares and how they've done. If your capital allocation priorities have changed in any sense throughout this year, and then what are the priorities now?
Yeah. Good morning, Daniela. So maybe first looking back at our capital allocation priorities in 2024. So we paid an increasing cash dividend of 1.25. We will deleverage in the year around EUR 440 million euro debt. So we have EUR 1.1 billion euro debt reaching maturity in 2024, of which we have replaced only 700. And the difference is quite important, because given the interest rates, the current interest rates, it allows us first, to reduce the total interest costs annually. Second, it also allow us to avoid an additional annual cost of around EUR 80 million euro, so that's very substantial.
So overall, I think this, we strongly believe that this was a very good utilization of our cash. Now, if we look forward to your question, we will review our priorities and we will communicate and provide an update on those in January. So of course, we are in good track, and we have successfully refinanced. Then we will be looking at M&A and all the other ways to return cash to shareholders, including share buybacks. And we will be redefining and updating on the priorities of capital allocation we see in January.
Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and kindly be reminded this is limited to one question plus one follow-up. Thank you. We will now move on to our next question from Adam Parr of Redburn Atlantic. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Adam Parr from Redburn Atlantic here. Thanks very much for taking my question. One for Eric, please. Given you produce quite a lot in China, with the probability of a Trump presidency currently increasing, can you please remind us how the twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen tariffs in his last presidency impacted your profitability, and what impact you might see if he puts up significant tariffs again? Thanks very much.
Yeah. Good, good morning, Adam. So the, the tariff situation, you know, it's, it's not a new one, because, you know, when the tariffs increased, you know, in the past, in the past years, we adapted our, you know, production footprint.
So basically, we looked at the categories of products that could be sourced closer to the U.S. or in the U.S., and still doing so at a price that would be competitive, you know, against the Chinese prices or the price of the goods that would be manufactured in China. At the end of the day, you know, when we did that exercise at the time, we did it, but it was for a limited part of the portfolio. Then we looked at the second category of products, the one that would also be better produced in Mexico, for instance, but thanks to the tariffs, and we moved also some of these products.
But we kept, you know, part of the production in China because there was no way, given the actual level of tariffs, to be produced anywhere else, you know, at the right level of cost. Now, things may change, and we are preparing ourselves. We are preparing ourselves in the following fashion. So first of all, we are defining other territories, you know, in low-cost countries that could serve as production base. At this point in time, we have two very important markets to Signify where it does make sense to have expanded manufacturing activities, because we serve the local market, and we can serve also the more global market and the U.S. market.
We are targeting India and Indonesia, while at the same time, we are also looking at specializing some of the plants that we have in Mexico, in order to be able to transfer more activities quickly if the tariffs were increasing. You know, we're talking about tariffs for our business, our industry today, that are between 20% to 25%. If that goes up to 60, effectively, you know, it will offer, you know, a lot of possibilities to further reduce costs by sourcing closer to the States or in other countries than China.
Look, we're looking at this, you know, at this point in time, we have a plan, you know, we have a plan A, we have a plan B, and we have a plan C, depending where the political decisions are gonna go, but we are very well positioned, and probably much better than, you know, we were when the tariff increased the first time. Now, from a competitive standpoint, I think that everybody faces more or less the same situation, because when you look at China, you don't only look at finished goods, but you look also at components, and it's probably, you know, you can assemble finished goods in many different parts of the world, but getting the components, it's a bit more complicated because a lot of them are coming from China.
So we're looking at all these aspects, components, finished goods, having different geographies and a plan to react. We believe that if tariffs are being announced, we should be able to react within, you know, six to nine months. But I guess that will be the case for the industry at large.
Thanks very much. That's very helpful.
Thank you, and we'll now move on to our next question from Anna Ratcliffe of Bank of America. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. I was just hoping to get a little bit more detail on the professional weakness in Europe. Were there any segments you were seeing that in more office or retail or anything there? And then maybe any commentary on what you're seeing so far in October would be helpful. Thanks for taking the questions.
Yes, good morning. Anna, looking, talking Europe. So first of all, it is still a detractor onto the performance of the overall professional business, so it's performing at a much lower comparable sales growth than the overall business. But it has improved versus Q2 and Q1, as we had guided in our previous call. So if you remember, we communicated on a big project that we took in 2023 in H1, supporting Ukraine LEDification. That was a one-off that impacted the base in H1. So not having that high compare in H2 is a first element that is improving the performance in Europe. Now let's look at the different channels we have in Europe.
So the trade channel has been still very difficult, not only for us, I think for industries at large in Europe. And if you look at our markets, we find quite a high level of volatility in Europe, because we see a market which is very slow in Eastern Europe and also in the south part of Europe, while at the same time we are growing double digits in the Nordics. When we look in more details, because we made a in-depth analysis on the trade channel in Europe, so it's impacting us, we are declining, but we do better than the market.
Then let's move to projects in the public segment, you know, that we have called on a few times, you know, which is also pretty much linked to the Green Deal. That you know is really incentivizing energy efficient infrastructure. It has been quite slow in Q3, and that's more on the public side of things linked to the delay you know of the money to be available. Because what happens at the level of Europe, first, it's a country split, then it is a project evaluation and assessment to see if it's in line with the overall Green Deal, and then the money is eventually made available. We've seen that process being a bit slow in Q3.
When it goes to more the private sector and office and industry and retail and hospitality, the situation in Europe is a bit particular. We see that the funnel is increasing, meaning that we are getting you know requests for quotes, but the projects are being delayed in execution. And that's a pattern that you know we have seen all along the year, you know, sometimes it's one part of the business which is impacting more than the others, but and that explains the overall slowdown in Europe. You know, for October, we don't make you know specific comments on on the upcoming quarter. You know, I would say to what I've just told the Q3.
Now, when it comes to our forecast in Q4, we're still quite cautious, you know, on Europe, and we don't expect, you know, a sudden and quick recovery in 2024.
Thank you.
Thank you. And we will now take our next question from Sven Weier of UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. First of all, you were alluding obviously to higher transport costs, container shipping. I guess part of that higher transport volume is probably also a bit of a pre-buy ahead of the U.S. election. So I was wondering if you see that maybe some of your clients are pre-buying from you, and that has also contributed to the sequential improvement, and maybe also in Q4. Or don't you see a pre-buy effect in lighting ahead of the upcoming elections? That's the first one. Thank you.
Yes, good morning, Sven. No, we don't see a pre-buy, you know, linked to the election. The increase of the transportation cost is linked, you know, to the situation in the Middle East, in the fact that the routes are getting a bit longer. So that's basically what is creating this. No, no, no specific pre-buy.
Just saying, because I think we've seen evidence in other industries for that, so that's not just this part, but let's see. And then on just coming back to the cost savings bit, where obviously you have the two-thirds in twenty twenty-four. I mean, how much of that two-thirds is in Q4 specifically? I mean, I guess we can't just add up the indirect savings of the first nine months and deduct it from that, so there's probably other stuff in there. But what is the absolute amount we should bake into the bridge for Q4 specifically?
Look, I think on the cost savings dynamic, I think there is, of course, an acceleration and carryover effect. So what you will see in Q4 is first, in Q3, we did have a carryover of the first effect coming through in Q2, and then we have an acceleration. So look, we track the capture of the savings on a monthly basis. So I think the full indication that I mentioned of two-thirds is including, of course, the Q4, which would contribute more obviously than what we had seen in Q3.
But sequentially, we also have, as this is a higher quarter in volume terms, we also do have additional costs that are coming in, in combination to the savings coming through, that are linked to the volume increase. So all in all, I think it's going to be an acceleration, a higher portion in Q4 than Q3, and Q3 being higher than Q2.
Now, it's fair to say that clearly more than 50% of those savings are in Q4, or would that overestimate the effect?
It would be less than that, because we already have, as I mentioned, again, if you look at the run rate of September, if I just take the month of September, it's already showing an acceleration, so you do have a carryover effect. So it will be less than what you're indicating for Q4.
Mm-hmm. And if I may chip in another quick one, just on Chinese competition, because you talked about Chinese competition in China. What are you observing, Chinese competition in Europe? I guess so far it's probably more on the consumer side. And how would you expect that to change, if tariffs go up further in the U.S.? Thank you.
That's a good question. Very difficult to answer, you know, at this point in time, because it's based on a lot of different hypotheses. What we have seen already is when the tariff increased the first time, you had, of course, less exportation of China to the U.S. overall. So we've seen the Chinese actors more focusing on China, you know, and potentially Europe. Now, the fact that the market in Europe is soft is increasing probably even more, you know, the focus of the Chinese actors, you know, on the China market.
You know, at the end of the day, when you have thousands and thousands of actors, you know, in an industry, what we can expect also, and we have a few signs that are happening, but not at the magnitude that we would like. We see some companies, you know, closing doors. And we see some companies not continuing their activity in lighting, you know, when they don't have a very high level of revenue, and there's that sort of pressure, you know, on your overall top line. We see some of them exiting the market. What is going to happen if the tariff increase? Look, we'll see.
The jury is still out, but we've seen what has happened already with more concentration on China, with more concentration on some parts of Asia and Africa, and also partially Europe. But the markets that are today, I would say, the easier target, you know, in that case for, you know, smaller type of Chinese competitors are probably, you know, the emerging markets. So some markets in Asia, some markets in South America, and some markets in Africa.
... And I mean, I guess on the professional side, we could also argue that the barriers to entry are much higher, right? So where do you see these competitors on connected, for example? I mean, is there still quite a big difference between you and them, or how do you see the professional barriers to entry in general?
Yeah, on connected, it's totally different. You know, our connected business has been performing extremely well, you know, on the professional side. So it's also has grown, you know, I believe through the crisis in the past four years, quite systematically. You know, it's now quite an important part of the business. Now, when you look at the professional connected lighting business, there are two fundamental elements that are barrier to entry. So the first one is the fact that we are basically putting different type of technologies together. It's not only about mechanics, it's not only about electronics, it's not only about controls, it's not only about software, it's about all of it.
You can find, you know, small companies assembling an LED fixture, but it's much more complicated, you know, for these companies to invest in controls, in communication and software. By the way, when you talk about connected lighting architecture, let's take, you know, what we do specifically in connected streetlights. You have a node, and you have, you know, a cloud backbone software, which is, you know, managing all the streets and all the city lights. It's quite investment intensive, and to bring that architecture to life. Whether you're a company selling seven billion or you're a company selling forty million, it's the same cost. These companies cannot develop these technologies and these architectures because it's too costly. That's one.
The second barrier to enter is the go-to market model. You know, selling a product from a catalog, from a distance, you know, at a very low price is very different than being present, with feet on the ground, talking to CXOs and convince them that they have to buy connected lighting. So I think that the fact that there are many technologies involved, the fact that we need to have a high touch go-to market models, are, you know, bringing connected lighting a totally different situation when it comes to competitors than general lighting not connected.
Very clear. Thank you, Eric and Željko.
Thank you. And we will now take our next question from Claire Liu of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just a follow-up on capital allocation. I guess, just thinking about the longer term growth for Signify, also in face of, I guess, more intense competition in some of the markets right now, would you consider, I guess, is acquisition a discussion that you'll be having at the board or management team? Would you consider potential acquisition maybe expanding to adjacent markets in other areas of smart home, maybe? So, I guess, yeah, would you consider that? And then if so, what are the potential areas of interest? Thank you.
Yes. Good morning, Claire. Of course, these are discussions that we have on a regular basis, especially, you know, probably two or three times during the year, where a bit of a strategic thinking and strategic retreat, you know, to know where the company needs to operate, you know, in the coming years. So we have indeed, specifically on the consumer business, decided to expand and go also to, you know, what we've called monitoring, which is not only security, but, you know, you can have now in the Hue ecosystem, in the WiZ ecosystem, you can have cameras. And basically we approached it with always having in mind our right to win.
So we're using existing ecosystem that I established, so everything is happening under the same app, and it's basically monitoring for lighting and lighting for monitoring. I give always that example, which is quite simple to understand, is if you have an intruder, the cameras will see the intruder, and all your lights can go flashing red. At the same time, if you have someone moving in the corridor, the camera will see that person moving in the corridor, and the light can be switched to different type of scenario. So you know, the lights can be an alarm supporting security, and the cameras can be a sensor supporting lighting. So that's the reason why we believe that there was a very coherent direction between those two different dimensions.
Now, talking about other, type of, of businesses and trying to go into adjacencies, we always evaluate what is, our right to win. You know, whether we can create synergies, you know, from a back office standpoint, that would be substantial. Whether we can create, synergies from a front office standpoint, that would make sense. Understanding that, you know, when we do those evaluations, we are very, very cautious on front office synergies because, you know, they very often make a lot of sense intellectually, but they're very difficult to, execute, on, on the ground. So at this point in time, you know, the only adjacency that we have gone for in smart home, is basically, monitoring and, and cameras....
Now, if you're asking me the question, would it be interesting for Signify to grow in, you know, HVAC in home, for instance? Look, frankly speaking, we don't see what would be our right to win here. We would have to go through an acquisition of an actor who's already well-positioned in that segment. And once we have done that, I am not too sure that we can generate the right level of synergy between, you know, air conditioning and heating, you know, and lighting. It's not really obvious to us. So that's basically, you know, the strategic thinking that we have when it come to adjacency. Lighting is what we know how to do.
If we need to go into adjacent sectors, we need to have, you know, a very comprehensive and a very solid strategic reasoning that would make sense.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you, and we will now take our next follow-up question from Daniela Costa of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Thank you for getting me back for the follow-up. My follow-up is actually on conventional. I know it's now pretty small, but it is still falling, and it looks like even falling faster than before. Can you tell us about sort of like how you think about the end life of conventional? Back at IPO, you wanted to be the last man standing. Margins have remained very high, but you also had a value for eventually, at some point, potentially fully closing the business. Like, how's your thinking on conventional now about the longevity of the business?
Daniela, hi again. Look, we don't -- we use another expression now. We say the last company standing. Just to be clear. But look, conventional, yes, it's getting smaller, but this year, you know, as you see, with the ban of fluorescent in Europe, with the programmed expanding ban of fluorescent in the States, we have a lot of, you know, strategic thinking about that business. Because at the end, it has been also in twenty twenty-four, a bit of a surprise, you know, because the decline has been quite strong.
Even if we can maintain its performance in terms of of profit, we'll see that the negative contribution to the overall profit of the group and the negative contribution of conventional to the overall top line, which is gonna be probably around 200 basis points for the full year, has been quite substantial. It's true that declining between 50% to 20% is different than declining at 30%, in terms, you know, of how you're capable or how we are capable to stabilize the whole organization. At this point in time, when we look at conventional strategically, probably we have three different pieces. One is, you know, general lighting and also electronic, you know, the balance, and that's a business that is gonna decline sharply, you know, again, in 2025.
We've seen it in 2024, and it has been, you know, the biggest contributor of the decline of conventional. We know how to manage that decline. We know how to adapt our manufacturing plants in order to do so. But it's a sharp decline, as you mentioned it. I think we need to bring that business down to a lower level, and I think after a while it will stay, you know, at a much lower level than where we are now, and we need to make that adjustment. Then we have two other businesses. One, which is digital projection. That's a business where we have an extremely high market share worldwide. Basically, it's the replacement of lamps or the implementation of lamps in video projections.
Well, on that business, we see that at one stage, that technology will not be anymore needed. Maybe it will be replaced with LED, and we will not be, you know, on that specific game. So probably in the coming years, that business should stop. And then the third party is specialty business, and that's a business which is having a much better growth profile than the rest. And we think that that's a business where there can be a bit of investment for the future and the remaining part in conventional. But we are facing probably in 2024 and 2025, you know, sharp decline. We know how to manage them, and we have a view for the long term.
You know, at the end, when I look at the conventional business, what I'm seeing, I see that we should be able to generate much more cash with that business than what it would cost us to restructure, so you know, we have in our mind, and we'll communicate, you know, in due time, the full amount that we need to restructure that whole business, and we believe that we can generate, you know, in the coming years, much more cash than what is needed to restructure.
Got it. Thank you so much.
Thank you. And we'll now take our last question, a follow-up from Tim Ehlers from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks a lot for your patience. Then just one question to wrap up the whole thing. We've talked a lot about China. Is there a thought in the company to maybe exit the market, to, you know, not be exposed to this difficult market anymore?
Not at this point in time, Tim. You know, we are very involved historically in China, not only on the commercial part and on the market itself, but also with you know, R&D teams. We manufacturing, you know, all our business have one part of the manufacturing in China. We're very involved in that market. If I take some distance, Tim, on that specific question, do we believe in the Chinese market in the mid to long term? Absolutely. We're just going through you know, a difficult period as many others, but there's no exit plans at this point in time on the table.
Okay, clear. Thanks a lot. Have a great day.
Yeah, you too. Thanks.
Thank you. That was our last question. I will now hand it back to Silke for closing remarks.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for joining our earnings call today. If you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Enjoy the rest of your day. Bye-bye.
Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.