Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the OCINV 4th Quarter 2019 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. For the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. Tuesday 25th February 2020. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker to date Director of Investor Relations, Hans Saied.
Thank you. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good afternoon and good morning, audience in the U. S, and thank you for joining OCINV 4th quarter and full year 2019 conference call. With me today are Nasiv Sawiris, our Chief Executive Officer, Hassan Badalia, our Group Chief Financial Officer and Afnet Voshi, our Group Chief Operating Officer. This call, we will review OCI's key operational events and financial highlights for the quarter followed by discussion of OCI's ARPU.
As usual, at the end of the call, we will host a question and answer session. As a reminder, statements made on today's call contain forward information, these statements are based on certain assumptions and involve certain risks and uncertainties. And therefore, I'd like to refer you to our disclaimers about forward looking statements. Now let me hand over to Ahmed.
Thanks Hans. I first look at our operational and commercial performance during the quarter, We are focused on execution and leveraging our logistical advantages as our end markets remain challenging. As you recall from our last conference call, We carried out a large number of plant plant turnarounds and efficiency improvements during the summer. We're pleased that we're starting to see the benefits in our nitrogen earlier, which I believe bodes well for overall production performance in 2020. Our total owned produced sales volume increased by 19 dollars to 2,900,000 metric tons during the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to the same quarter last year.
This growth was driven by a strong result of our and business with steady operational performance and sales volumes, up 24% during the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to the same period last year. This was driven by Firstly, the addition of Purtil and Abu Dhabi to our portfolio, contributing more than 500,000 tons and helping our nitrogen product lines grow by up to 24%. Our DES business in the US was also a big driver achieving once again a quarterly sales record. Our European nitrates business performed well despite relatively quiet end markets during the quarter. CAN volumes were just about level for the fourth quarter of 2018, and we are pleased with a healthy 7% increase in volumes for the full year of 2019.
Our North American UAN markets, on other hand, were weak and prices were under pressure. Given HITCO's production flexibility in Iowa, we can divert to urea and DES depending on the profitability of each product and end market conditions. This resulted in a solid performance for Iowa overall compared to both the third quarter of 2019 and the same period in 2018. However, it also explains a 12% drop in our sales volume or UAN sales volume, and an increase of other products during the quarter as a result of the shift in product mix. Methanol volumes decreased by 4% during the quarter.
As you are aware, Natgasoline was down from August until the end of October due to an isolated incident related to a waste heat boiler that was repaired successfully. This had a negative impact on production and sales volume but without any financial repercussion in Q4 as the incident is insured and we were already past the deductible period. In addition, we accelerated the turnaround at OCI Beaumont, which we had originally planned for the second quarter of 2020. We refurbished waste heat boilers, which were the primary cause of the repeated shutdowns and repeated extended shutdowns in 2019. The ammonia plant finished the turnaround in the first half of January and the methanol plant in mid February with a solid safety record and no reportable incident.
Finally, we achieved good methanol volumes in the Netherlands during the quarter following the start up of the newly refurbished second production line at BioMCF. This was not, however, enough to offset the lower production at Rx 2 Facilities in the United States during the fourth quarter. I'd now like to turn it over to Hassan for the financial results.
Thank you, Ahmad. Looking at the financial results for the 4th quarter, we recorded consolidated revenue of $848,000,000 and then adjusted EBITDA of $237,000,000. These numbers are up significantly compared to the 3rd quarter despite deteriorating price environment. And reflect the ramp up of volumes post the successful run of turnarounds that we had. Compared to the same quarter of 2018, Revenue and adjusted EBITDA are lower primarily because of, our methanol group performance.
This is also reflected at the Metals segment level with both volumes and prices lower. Looking at the results of our nitrogen platform, however, on the adjusted EBITDA for the European U. S. And 30 group segments, roughly flat year on year. This was an environment of meaningfully lower selling prices, but good volumes and a focus on premium products using our flexibility together with low spot gas prices in the U.
S. And trending the lower European gas prices underpins our margin performance. Our Middle East export platform for Tiglobe, our joint venture with ADNOC also felt the impact of lower prices during the quarter, but was boosted by the first time inclusion of Fortis and our consolidated results during the fourth quarter. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow, Our free cash flow before growth CapEx during the quarter was $52,000,000, and our net debt was $4,100,000,000 as of 31st December 2019. Net debt was relatively flat from the end of September to the end of December, despite a good quarter on quarter improvement in EBITDA.
This can be explained by several factors. Firstly, interest payments of $80,000,000 in the quarter. And because of timing, are always higher than average in the second and fourth quarter of the year. There were some negative currency effects amounting to about $24,000,000, reflecting major dollar euro movements. And there was no cash stream from Natgasoline during the quarter as we build our reserves at the Natgasoline vessel.
Finally, we had some seasonal working capital outflows of a total of $21,000,000 during the quarter. This was primarily driven by a temporary increase in trade receivables related to our you've successfully urea sales into the India and Ethiopia tenders and reflecting higher inventories in Europe, with a combined effect of total CapEx was $53,000,000 during the quarter, of which only a marginal amount was related to growth as we complete as we reach the end of our growth CapEx programs. As the business approaches a steady state perspective of our completed growth program, our priority remains to maximize free cash flow generation and achieve our financial policy targets to de lever towards two times through the cycle. Additionally, we continue to evaluate our capital structure to identify further cost effective refinancing opportunities. We believe that our potential opportunities to both further optimize our capital structure and reduce our weighted average cost of debt and we will look to execute those as they become available as we have done since the beginning of 2018.
We have a number of debt instruments, which are either pre payable or callable at the company's option during 2020 2021, including both bonds and loans and we will look at those opportunistically. I would now like to hand over to Doctor. Saliras, our CEO, for further commentary.
Thank you, Hassan, and thank you all for joining the call today. Let me start by commenting on the strategic review of our methanol business As mentioned in the press release, following the strategic evaluation, we have initiated a process with several interested parties that may result in a partial divestment or other structures. At this time, we cannot share additional information, but in due course, we will update you on the results of this process. Regarding our operational performance and outlook. I'm pleased that we have started to see the positive effects from our focus on operational performance during the fourth quarter.
And I would like to thank the whole team for their commitment to safety and reliability across our platform. All our nitrogen operations achieved good results despite the low selling prices and some buildup of inventories in Europe. Clearly helped by the strong execution on sales and distribution. I would like to mention our high margin businesses in Iowa, Nigeria, in particular. Our plants in Iowa have been operating without interruption since the turnarounds last summer.
The Upstream plants have been running at the utilization rate of 115% on average since the restart and the downstream plans are doing equally well. We continue to push utilization rates higher, which will be disproportionately beneficial to cash contribution going forward. We executed a heavy turnaround schedule in Algeria as well in 2019 and are starting to see developments. All three production lines ramps up during the fourth quarter and reached record utilization levels by December. We are pleased that the plants have been running at high level since then, with currently all three production lines running above the main phase capacity for the first time since aircraft.
In the last few Geraldine following the shutdown from August to October, an event that was covered by comprehensive insurance. It is currently running at around 92, 93% utilization, which we aim to increase over the course of the coming months. As the plan was shut down for more than 4 months during 2019 and contributed little to our adjusted EBITDA, we expect a much stronger contribution in 2020. We also accelerated a planned turnaround at OCI Beaumont that we had originally planned for the second quarter of 2020. That we can ensure improved performance going forward.
Since the restart of the plant, they have been running well. The ammonia plant is up to 104% and the methanol plant now running at 112% of mean plate capacity. This looks promising for a much improved addition to EBITDA for this facility from the 2nd quarter onwards. Turning the outlook for our end markets. Nitrogen markets faced significant headwinds in 2019 especially due to challenging weather conditions.
Other factors like Iranian exports at lower prices and trade chances also played a role. We were hoping for an early spring application's season, but current soil moisture conditions have prevented that. But we expect nitrogen demand to be higher in 2020 for a number of reasons. Firstly, farm economics are favorable and the relative cost of crop inputs looks strong. We expect demand in North America to increase driven by an expected return to normal planting conditions and an increase in planted acreage.
In addition, the ammonia season last fall did not achieve full potential due to weather conditions. We should bowing well for the demand of nitrogen. The European nitrates market is also looking healthy. This is a market that has been much more stable than the UNN in the market in the United States in recent months. Finally, our analysis shows that there is very little new capacity coming into the market this year, supporting a further tightening of the supply and demand balance Looking at our own portfolio, we are well positioned both in terms of our product portfolio and geographic locations.
In anticipation of the spring application season, we continue to build inventories using our advantageously located warehousing capacity We feel good about the season and have a healthy order books across our operations. In the mid in the U. S. Midwest, we are well positioned a forecast of additional soil moisture could mean that UAN and urea will be favored over ammonia as a situation beneficial to us. And from a logistics perspective, we are already close to flat levels in the region, so we could potentially see a repeat from last year of widening Midwest premium.
Our global export platform Ferroglobe has enabled us to offer an enhanced platform to our customers and our urea production is almost sold out for the first quarter, at advantageous prices. This is partially due to our successful participation in the Ethiopian tender and other key markets. And we expect to benefit from a cost outlook for the diesel exhaust fuel market in the U. S, our faster growing product in 2019. This is further helped by the recent agreement with DaimoNobel market their products in North America.
Then if I look to methanol markets, methanol markets have been getting tighter and as a result prices have been steadily rising since last summer when they hit a multiyear low. Current spot prices have increased more than $100 over, to over 3:30 since then and are currently also about, 30% higher since the start of the year. Prices are still at levels well below mid cycle, but the increases bode well for a better 2020, especially as we expect a healthy increase in production volume this year as well. We are also seeing some positive developments in demand on the environment. On the convention methanol side, we are pleased to see good progress of fuel bending in certain key energy consuming markets.
For example, India is looking seriously at implementing methanol branding, which is lower cost and better for emissions relative to gasoline and easy to transport efforts on distribution pilot projects are progressing and this could materialize into a several million tons per year market relatively quickly. Our initial in biomass and all are also starting to pay off and we're encouraged by the momentum and a lot of inbound inquiries from new customers. As an excellent sustainable second generation biofuel and renewable chemical feedstock that are a multitude of applications across various industries. Finally, natural gas prices are at a highly attractive level in both Europe and in the U. S, and looks set to remain at all levels going forward.
As a result, we expect to continue to be a beneficiary in 2020 and beyond keeping us at the very low end of the global cost. In conclusion, markets and dimensions are looking supportive for 2020 and our order book is healthy. Methanol markets have also seen some clear improvements this year. In any case, we expect that a healthy increase in our production and seeds volume should drive our full year 2020 results. Overall, we expect higher and more efficient asset utilization rates across the platform, also benefiting from better conversion economics following turnarounds.
Our volume growth combined with our competitive position on the Coast curve will allow us to maintain a strong position in the market, and we look ahead to realizing an improvement of our leverage metrics. With that we'll open
And we have one question comes from the line from Christian Faitz.
Yes, sir. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Christian Faitz here from Kepler Cheuvreux. Three questions if I may. First, can you please elucidate a bit what has led you to the decision depart from the methanol activities at this point in time?
Given obviously all the rumors and considering all the rumors last year. 2nd, your turnaround in Beaumont is completed, as you when did operations actually restart? And then third question, you just mentioned, in your outlook statement that you see a healthy development in your nitrogen order books. Can you please share a few of how the crop season will be starting in the Northern Hemisphere compared to last year, assuming that there will not be any major winter events coming up. I mean, are we talking about, 2, 3, 4 weeks in your assessment or what your people in the field are actually saying?
Thank you.
So methanol, we are not taking, a full decision on the exact terms of, that we are, would be willing to divest the methanol stake we are, receiving inbound inquiries, as we speak, primarily for a minority stake, but potentially for a full divestment, these are things that we are always open with to evaluate all our, portfolio And that is something we do constantly, across all lines. We believe that of, subject to achieving a, good value for a minority stake that this would be deleveraging exercise that will accelerate our return to investment grade and will give us the momentum to participate in future consolidation and fertilize. On the start of the season, we, we we can't comment on exactly, the weather in the coming few weeks But what we what is clear is that India will come back sooner rather than later for, based on local consumption in the last few months, which are ahead of last year. So they will be, we expect them to come back in the coming few weeks. That will set the tone in addition to both spring, in the US and, in Europe.
Around the corner. And the fact that we believe that, inventories and warehouses of major traders are below levels of last year. That should be bode well, especially in Europe and for urea. UAN is a different story And there has been some confusion in the North American market due to some spot sales and auctions that took place in the last month, which the market had to digest the repercussions of that and UAN. But we are we have the flexibility in Iowa, and we exercise that.
So We are bullish on, urea and then the outlook for urea. We are we feel very comfortable about the European market. We cannot decide exactly where UAN is going to go given the position of the market leader there. So this covers both the weather and the outlook, but the fundamentals in terms of demand growth in India. And, where the product is at distributors compared to last year gives us the comfort that, within the coming few weeks, people will either wait and panic for the India announcement or we'll move ahead of that.
So the next trigger event will be an Indian tender announced we're getting a lot of inbound inquiries for more volumes to the U. S. At higher prices every day. So obviously, a shortage in the U S is pretty obvious and potentially a short squeeze in the Midwest because of, logistics being difficult could result in, more more spikes in prices in the second quarter.
Okay. Thanks, Nassef. And just one one quick comment on Pemont. The question when operations actually restarted?
So, yeah, from
OCI, Walmart, the ammonia line started in early January, and the methanol started in mid February. And as indicated by NALFIF, the ammonia lines running, approximately 104% and the Methanol line at 112% and slowly cautiously increasing capacity there.
The 112 is not our final ambition. We believe that in the coming few days, we should cross the 115% and stabilize some of the things we did on the turnaround were not strictly, replacing, all parts with new parts. But we did some engineering enhancements, that we're starting to we're starting to see the benefits of.
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
And your next question comes from the line of Shen.
Thanks, Nadef Hazen, for the opportunity to ask questions. Firstly, on Fertiglobe. What was the pro form a full year 2019 look like for Fertiglobe? That would be helpful. Secondly, can you remind me how the cash will be transferred back to OCI from the, from the JV?
Thirdly, could you expand a little bit on your comments about the the UAN market in North America? As you said, we've all seen these low implied box sales, how do you interpret the dynamics there? How do you see inventories in the North American UAN market? Thank you.
So I leave Hassan to give you exactly the pro form a, of Ferroglobe with full year consolidation of 58. So, hypothetically, 30 was consolidated for the full year, Hassan, what was exactly the number?
On a if, assuming we would have consolidated for the full year, then the pro form a revenue would have been $3,400,000,000 And our adjusted EBITDA, which we reported for the full year 'nineteen of 'seven forty eight, would be at $888,000,000. Just to give you a sense of the impact of the of the what the pro form a footprint of vision would be. And at the JV level, we have no restrictions on our ability to upstream cash to the shareholders, to both OCI and ADNOC in terms of the in terms of the holding company. So I assume that answers your question.
On the UAN market, I mean, the UAN has been commercially handed handed poorly, in the last few months, by the market leader, the, auction forces that they initiated, sent a message of desperation to the market. So UN traded at the same, due to an equivalent of ammonia, something that never happened before. So we defer questions on new end in North America to the market either. But the, yeah, overall, the nitrogen market is quite tight. And we have a global view on urea, not so much on UAN where we are not one of their key players.
Thank you. Could you give us a, a window of this might come to a conclusion? Is this something that might conclude in 20, or could this roll on before then? Any kind of concern we might expect an update helpful?
The process, has initiated. We expect that, a process should be classified within 2020.
And your next question comes from the line of Raja Babali from Exane BNP Paribas. Please ask your question.
Hi. Good afternoon. Can I ask two questions, please? Firstly, just on gas, now that the portfolio is fully integrated for Fortil, was wondering if you could share a sensitivity of the group's, maybe, EBITDA to sort of key movements in US and European gas, if possible. And then secondly, sorry.
Go ahead. Can you, can we take that question offline with Hans, later, we'll give you the full metrics of that. But you have to go plant by plant, because U. S. Gas prices are not directly correlated to European gas prices, although we're starting to see a pattern develop where European gas prices are range bound into $3.5 to $5.
But right now, we're paying below $3 in Holland.
Sure. Okay. Thank you. And then the second one, just on the first quarter outlook, you know, I know you mentioned a healthy order book But just given last year, first quarter versus second quarter looked very different because of your proactive phasing, I was just wondering if, you know, in I know it's early, but any thoughts on whether we should expect something like that again this year?
Well, it's early and, we're sold out through end of February. And we, we have good older books in March. So March will be the key in determining the volumes and how much, but we're not gonna rush, to reduce our inventory, for the key spring market at lower prices. So, we think that, prices in the coming months are, we will see an obvious big spike and we're not in a rush to, liquidate our portfolio, our inventory in order to satisfy a quarterly guideline. I think what you should start looking at is a full H1 results.
However, that situation, could surprise because we're seeing in the last 48 hours are consistent ramp up in inbound inquiries at consistently higher prices. And, we know that India has to come back to the market. It's a matter of weeks now. So we, we're going to be prudent in the coming week or 2, and, the market is extremely tight.
Can I just sneak in another quick one, just for avoidance and doubt on the planned turnarounds? I know you said OCI Beaumont was pulled forward can you just remind us what else is remaining for 2020 and when, if possible? Thanks.
So we have, very limited as an aggregate as compared to 2019, I would say that, what we have is it much less than half the amount of lost volumes What I can give you in terms of guidance on how the turnarounds are going to affect the volumes is that we we are budgeting for double digit volume growth, excluding the fertile annexation. So double digit like for like in 2020 without adding the, the measure, capacity addition that comes with 1st C.
And your next question comes from the line of Lisa De Lead from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.
Hi, everyone, and thank you for taking my questions. So just a small one, I'm sorry to go back on the methanol, but sort of a clarification on the question that question 5 has lost. So I'm aware that you can't provide a lot of detail. Could you please clarify given your comments made this morning and just now whether the divestment route is now more likely route and whether sort of spin off and merger are still on the table or not on the table anymore. And similarly, I mean, it's the first time I hear over partial divestments or is it just exploring broader options or is it just taking the best opportunity, what's on the table.
So any sort of qualitative guidance would be very helpful. And secondly, it's a bit of a higher level question on the SG side. So your slide deck contains a number of ESG slides, which are very helpful. And it's obviously a team which appears to have become more prominent across investors' minds. And my question is sort of amid a landscape of tightening policies including European emission trading system moving to phase 4 quite soon.
The Ukraine deal aiming to write size the application of crop inputs, including fertilizer in Europe, what are sort of the initiatives that API is taking towards managing its CO2 emissions on a forward basis? Do you have any targets or plans to set targets or additional initiatives beyond your recent expansion in biofuels in U. S?
So I'll start by on the methanol and I don't want to dwell too much. The only thing that I commute can communicate today is that the spin off has been taken, off the table. It was completed in the review the pros and owns of that, having a smaller entity and dis synergies led us to believe that that is an option that we will no longer pursue. On the terms of the minority or a or an outright sale, these are, if they materialize, they will materialize if we believe that we can achieve a good balance between our deleveraging target and obtaining and a fair price for the assets. So nothing is casting stone there and the process is highly flexible and, different parties have different scenarios to contemplate with, and we will not comment any further on that.
I think I already commented more than I was suffering. So on ESG, we really appreciate that question. That has been one of our major, focus points in the last few months. And, you will see that moving forward, every single CapEx that is being considered is, takes ESG as a key parameter in terms of capital allocation. So one of the options that, for, a CapEx spending that is in the tens of 1,000,000 is to increase certain urea production, which automatically absorbs more CO2 that is standard in certain of our plants in North Africa.
So these are the types of initiatives that we're doing. But, in addition to bio methanol, DF is, extremely, supported for the environment. This is, has 2 significant effects on the environment. Number 1 is that it's a used to, eliminate NOx emissions coming out of trucks. And second of all, it's improving by significantly the fuel efficiency of trucks, that use a DF And it's been mandatory now in Europe and in US for all new trucks.
We're just seeing it grow as a result of replacing all trucks with new trucks. And our plants, especially in Iowa, have the flexibility to produce more DES. So, these are, to give you a color, but a lot of work is being done on ESG and you're going to be, exploring all of that and giving you more guidelines on it. Green ammonia is something that is also being, considered And, we have several other, initiatives. But on the, matrix of all fertilizer producers, we would actually send out and do exceptionally well as a result of our low, carbon utilization to produce the same ton of the same commodity, mainly because of, our plants being having, or being of a newer generation, plus the amount of environmental CapEx that we have put in our plants and columns.
So the plant in Weaver is the most efficient plant in North America, that we know of So in terms of emissions, it sets the bar very high. Our plants in North Africa are all last generation, all the plants with the excellent emission record. So if you want to compare our emission on a per ton basis, that would be something that would make us quite complaining, but we're not satisfied with where we are. We have a lot of initiatives. But the key metrics is that the entire board has taken a decision that, the environmental aspect will be a key parameter for any future capital allocation.
Okay. Thank you very much for all that information. It's very helpful. Can I just sneak in a small one on CapEx? Is there any sort of gross we should put into our numbers for 2020, you can mention?
Yes. Some, the criteria for 2020 on growth CapEx is that a payback within months, net years. So, I think we haven't looked at anything that has a payback beyond 18 months. So, you can assume that in the tens of 1,000,000 of that CapEx and will be growth. Some of the environmental compliance CapEx that we are doing in France and Europe are also growth.
So you're improving efficiency and you're adding production volume.
And your next question comes from the line of Faiza Al Hazme from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.
Hello, and thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. Maybe just starting off with going back to kind of methanol volumes and obviously, Q4 volumes were slightly subdued. And how do we think about, I mean, you have a you've had a few turnarounds already in Q1. How should we think about the the volume of, on a sequential basis for Methanol. And then we, if we want to tie that up with the current run rate, at the EBITDA level, if that's possible.
My second question is more relating to or is linked to one of the previous questions asked about the divestment or the minority stake sail, you've mentioned that you're thinking about further consolidation in the fertilizer market. Is that something that I understood correctly? If you can kind of
So on the sequential and the volumes and all this, we don't usually comment in that detail. So I will pass on that because it's very difficult to calculate, especially that we're, we still have a month of production. All I can say that as we speak today, all our plants are running well. On the divestment, the, we're not going to comment anymore, on that. I think we have the flexibility in the process to look at various options.
And,
And you've mentioned the fact that you're maybe I understood it correctly. Yeah.
On the on the on the consolidation, we're we believe that the fertilizer market has been waiting for, moment that is not happening because it's still quite a fragmented. If I compare that to other industries, this is an industry that should predict weather patterns in terms of spring always coming after summer, but sometimes the industry fails to do so. And the primary reason for the industry to be surprised every year that, spring comes after winter and autumn comes after summer. Is that the industry is not consolidated enough. It's highly fragmented.
Some consolidation We'll change that to our producers, we'll start to offer the customer's product that they need when they need it rather than try to stop the more product that they don't need when they don't need it. So that only happens when producers are large enough and sophisticated enough to look at and work closer to the consumers rather than, look to their own situation and try to target quarter by quarter results. And that will probably in other mature commodity markets. We rarely see commodity swings in 30% due to factors that are quite predictable and repeated year after year for the last 20 years. So it's very clear, when the consumer needs the UAN, but sometimes, the producer is actually pushing that volume in a forced, at the wrong time rather than adjusting his own sales and production volumes to meet what the consumer needs at the right time.
So, we have our eyes open on on consolidation. And we always look at, shareholder value enhancing opportunities. That's our thinking on the industry.
Very helpful. Maybe just one final question on underlying demand and how you're viewing underlying demand in the Methanol market today with the the coronavirus, I mean, in terms of lifting product, and what you're seeing in China, that would be quite helpful as well.
So China, the situation is not yet clear how much local production is impacted. But we see it in fertilizer that there is the plants are not operating at normal level. We see logistics being, quite impaired to the extent that, the warehouses in the ports don't have a lot of products. So we don't anticipate China to be an active exporter in Q2 or in the upcoming India tenders, for example, And that will further enhance the tightening. On methanol, the situation is very similar.
We see the, some of the capacity, that are curtailed. But demand in general, if you look, rather than on a quarter per quarter basis, If you look in the last 10 years, methanol demand has been growing in the 6% to 7% region. Consistently, methanol is being covered as a clean fuel as a clean building block for pet cams, to give you an idea, we anticipate that India goes ahead with the adaptation this summer of methanol as a blending fuel, which we think is highly likely because, A, methanol is cheaper than gasoline, and it's better for the environment something that is very critical, to India. That could add up to 3,000,000 tons of methanol demand. Methanol to olefins are, are something that recently added a lot of demand.
And we're starting to see some interest for companies wanting to know more about bio methanol and getting samples and all that from industries that we didn't expect, such as the aviation industry, the automotive industry, So bio methanol has also, we think, has a lot of legs to grow. And basically, it's normal methanol but produced from natural gas that is coming from, recovered from wind.
And your next question comes from the line of Frank Claassen from the group Petercam. The line is open. Please ask your question.
Yes, good afternoon. Coming back on the CapEx, could you maybe quantify the explication CapEx for 2020. So both the maintenance and the growth CapEx you envisage? And then secondly, on the situation of the Iranian or Chinese urea exports, has this situation improved versus last quarter? What is your current view on that situation?
Thank you.
So on the CapEx, just to give you, broad numbers, but obviously, those numbers have to be adjusted for forex movement for some anticipation and all that. But we're talking about a roughly a 250,000,000 maintenance CapEx run rate and something closer to 30,000,000 in growth CapEx and environmental energy. For 2020. And on the exports, I don't know what improved or what you mean by improved, but We're seeing less exports in urea from Iran. Brazil has become an official dumping place for the whole world, whether it's Iranian product or low cost products being, diverted to Brazil as a buyer of last resort.
We haven't shipped any significant volumes to Brazil in the last 3, 4 months. Because the prices that are not attracted and are being, affected by over a 1,000,000 plus tons of Iranian product going to Brazil. But obviously, the prices, in Brazil, have to react to any shortage coming out of Iran. But other than, Brazil and some, products going to China, which I think also will stop because of what is happening with coronavirus in Iran and China. Those are where we have identified consistent volumes going out of Iran.
And your next question comes from the line of Roger Spitz from Bank of America. Please ask your question.
Hi. This is Antonio again sitting for Roger. Thanks for taking my questions. So I was just wondering for vertigo how much of the sales and EBITDA, came from your legacy segment? And then the next question, just on Net gasoline, Would you be able to disclose the average operating rates for the quarter?
Thanks.
On the first question, we're not going to go and split Fernti Globe on a plant by plant basis yet. So I think we have enough information in that. And we've given you the adjusted number for 2019. You're going to see that on a run rate and you can come to your own, conclusions. And the second question the second question also, we're not going to comment on a production on a month by month basis.
That would be counterproductive for the shareholders' interest. But all that we can say is that as we speak now, All our plants are running with a big part of the plants running above nameplate, post ZBot necking initiatives. Like Iowa, like Beaumont, like Solstad. So we're happy with the technical performance.
If I can sneak in one more.
So I
was just wondering what's the probability of your traded volumes for the quarter. Could you disclose that?
Nope.
Oh, okay. That's fine.
And your next question comes from the line of Hans Zimmerman from Kempen. Please ask your question.
Hi, team. Thank you for taking my questions. My first question is on the, refinancing opportunity in 2020. Awesome, could you remind us how much debt approximately is gullible in 2020 and how much you paid, like, an indication, in terms of interest rate over those interim instruments in 2019. Second question, maybe also for Hassan on the working capital side.
There was an outflow over 19 I can remember that you made some comments related to more more efficient working capital position in, I think, around midyear. And could you give some color on how you expect this working capital position will develop in 2020, especially as you are ramping up volumes Should we expect a large outflow outflow or maybe a organic outflow is compensated by organic or or let's say, self help? And my third question, a small question, has any further insurance payment been received in Q1, or do you still expect further insurance payment related to Natgasoline? Thank you.
Sure. I mean, just to give you just to contextualize your question, at the end of the year, We obviously have a very comfortable liquidity position. We had the last $600,000,000 of cash in our systems. And about $700,000,000 of undrawn revolver facility at the OCIMD level, only $150,000,000 of drawn facilities. So that's, I think that's a good background for any color we give on any potential, refinancing activity, which we continue to look at opportunistically.
You're right. We do have over a $1,000,000,000 in bonds and $400,000,000 of facilities, across the group that we could look at opportunistically in 2020 onwards. And again, we're constantly evaluating the NPV of, of such potential refinancing, and we'll make the decision at the time and according to what, makes sense given the market environment. And as I said, we are there is no pressing liquidity needs, for the the company level. So, in terms of the in terms of the working capital, mean, given the given the given our liquidity position and given the size of the company, and as noted mentioned earlier, we are not focused on quarter to quarter, pressures.
We take positions as necessitated to get the best possible netbacks, for our products. If that means some movement in inventory, as we mentioned earlier, in the as part of our prescription tenders in Q4, there is some deferred collection that happens, in later quarters in Q1 into Q2. And again, our balance sheet and size on our liquidity position allows us to take these flexible positions to support our commercial team.
And I think you had a
question of Dan with regards to the insurance payment that Natgasoline, as indicated in our, earlier discussions, the Waisty boiler incident was fully covered by insurance and the deductible, for business interruption or property damage was already, exhausted in Q3. So we continue to be fully covered on that. There is a central $10,000,000 to $15,000,000, that is in discussions with the insurers. We can't go into further detail on that. Right now, but that's something that we're going to be studying over the next coming months at the JV level.
And your next question comes from the line of San Anterra from Usenet. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Hi. You do have a very popular on this call, but just a couple of very quick ones. Did you just say that the potential claim that you're discussing is 10,000,000 to 15,000,000?
Yes.
Okay. And on the refinancing. Do I understand correctly that that's separate to the methanol folks you are having right now, like, whether that happens or not or what shape or form it might take that's independent to the refinancing activities you're considering?
Not totally independent, but opportunistic in terms of that. We have cash in the company and some of the bonds are callable in April. So, we're going to continue to monitor the situation. But as we get close into the methanol process, we do not, want to inversion, ourselves with, debt at a rating that is significantly inferior to what we would be after we collect our balance sheet with a small divestment for everyone.
Okay. And in terms of your ratings, currently, you're on negative outlook from both. And I believe you mentioned your aims to get to investment grade. Can you comment on like the current ratings and if you expect any improvements given what to expect in terms of outlook for this year and the plans you have?
So you might have seen that, the Iowa fertilizer companies rating has been upgraded by a notch in the last few days. We expect that as a few quarters pass with the improved efficiency that reflects that we paid for dearly last year, that, that will bode well with the rating agencies. Also prices, and gas prices. Currently, we feel good about both heading in the right direction, our favor. So, but we can't comment on all these things, and potentially, proceeds from a methanol transaction will also play a visual role in, in that.
So we're doing what we can do. And the rest will be clear in the coming hopefully during the course of 2020.
Thank you very much.
Sir, no further question at this time. Please continue.
Thank you for participating and looking forward to our next call.
And that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.