Hello, and welcome to the TKH Q3 Market Update Conference Call. My name is George, and I'll be the coordinator for today's event. Please note this conference is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your line is going to be in listen-only mode. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions towards the end of the presentation, and this can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad to register your question. If you require assistance at any point, please press star zero, and you will be connected to an operator. I'd like to hand the call over to your host today, Mr. Alexander van der Lof, CEO of TKH, to begin today's conference. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for being in the call. Yeah, we will update you about the Q3 results and also our forecast for the rest of this year. Yeah, we saw that in Q3, the turnover decreased, almost in line with what we actually expected. EBITDA was a decrease of 13.8%. Smart Manufacturing performed quite strongly in continuation of the previous quarters, and Smart Vision also had a quite good performance, especially when we look at the challenging market circumstances, and we are on the route to gain market share, especially also if we look ahead and our position for the coming quarters. Within Smart Connectivity, we had a negative impact in the short term, and that was kind of unexpected in relation to the postponement of ramping up the serial production for the inter-array cables for offshore wind in the new plant in Eemshaven.
Some small technical issues with equipment where we decided to partially stop the manufacturing, and I will come back later in the outlook what the current position is. Stocking and digitalization, we saw in specific few end markets that at specific customers, a huge stock has been created, and that led to the fact that they almost stopped giving orders and first take away the inventory to use the inventory. What is very good is the high added value. We see, I believe, for the third or fourth consecutive quarter that the added value is about two, two and a half points higher than that it was previously. It is related to the strategic focus that we have, the innovations that we brought in our portfolio in the, yeah, I would say even recent years, which is supporting to get a higher added value.
I believe that is very important for the future in respect of the returns, the bottom line returns we can achieve, and the bottom lines can improve, especially because of the fact that we are positioned for growth. With the higher utilization, we will get a better cost ratio, and yeah, that will, of course, help them to increase the return on sales. The initiated cost saving program is running on track. We might be even looking in the last months of this quarter to further see if there are additional cost savings, and especially also related to the cost ratio where we want to see an improved situation. We had a good order intake, and especially the sales funnel is looking quite well for the coming quarter.
Beyond that, for a very high order intake, and that would lead to the fact that although we have in some segments a very high turnover, that we have a good order book by the year end that is around the order book we had last year. Then, yeah, the outlook, of course, is based on a very strong Q4, and that Q4 is about in line with our previous expectations and will be substantially higher than Q3. The outlook has been adjusted, but that is mainly to reflect the Q3 results and the effect that we saw within Smart Connectivity, that negative impact. We saw really good progress in preparing for growth and accomplished most of the milestones.
And the milestones are, let's say, the main milestones are related to gaining market share, for which we invested quite a lot of money in respect of the commercial organization and in the solution selling, which is also an additional opportunity to go beyond and to gain market share and to grow our business. And what is also very important is the strong order book that we want to build by the end of this year for not only next year, but also for the coming years in the offshore wind position. And that looks also quite good. The sales funnel is very, very high. We mentioned in a previous update that we are working in 52 tenders with more than 9,000 kilometers of cable in these tenders. And yeah, it looks like that will be further growing this opportunity of the sales funnel.
What we also mentioned in our press release is that we believe that in the short term, we can translate a part of this sales funnel in an interesting project to have a strong order book for next year and the coming years. That is the update on slide three. I move to the next slide where we see the different segments. Smart Vision is a 7.9% organic decrease. Still continue challenging market circumstances. We even saw that the VDMA, which is a German organization who is following the market situation, that for instance, in Germany, the market decreased by more than 15%. And a big part of the 2D vision activities of TKH is related to the German market, and there we even saw a modest growth. The decline was mainly in the 3D vision and also in the security vision.
3D, especially because of the weakness in the battery and solar end markets. We see that we are positioned for other markets and also don't believe that the battery and solar end markets will be very attractive and positive in the coming quarters. But the good news is that we see in other end markets that we are positioned well and also growth opportunities are in place. And then within Smart Vision, we saw that due to the timing of projects, the third quarter was somewhat weak. But yeah, also there the outlook is much more promising for the fourth quarter and also going beyond. Smart Manufacturing had a really, really good performance. We also have to bear in mind that the third quarter is the vacation period, so there are less working hours.
But yeah, also compared to a strong Q3 last year, we did a quite good job, and especially on the profitability side, the implemented efficiency improvements really continue to pay off. We had another divestment in Q3. After in Q2, we announced HE System Electronic, and now in Q3, EKB was closed, or the divestment was closed, as part of the Accelerate 2025 program. Within connectivity, yeah, the organic decrease was the highest with 10.8%. I already mentioned the two main areas where we saw the decrease. I believe the good news is that the ramp-up postponement is also a postponement of the timing of the manufacturing. We will still be able to manufacture. Just postponement of the order book that we could have manufactured. We are well prepared to further move up the capacity.
At the same time, we have decided to have as a plan B additional capacity from our existing plant in Lochem to compensate the small issues we have for which we have a delay in the ramp-up in Eemshaven. Yeah, I already mentioned we expect larger projects to be signed in the short term. That is really good news. We are almost already there with the utilization target for 2025 that we have said earlier and communicated. As I mentioned, the sales funnel is growing and yeah, is confirming the really attractive offshore wind potential. Yeah, the outlook, I believe I should not go through all the details there because you have been able to read that.
I already mentioned in the beginning that we had to adjust the forecast for the whole year from EUR 210 million up to EUR 220 million now to EUR 200 million and a range of EUR 200 million and EUR 210 million. And yeah, if you then look at the Q4 result that we have to achieve, it is a really strong Q4. And yeah, that is actually my last comment about this presentation. I'd like to hand over for questions.
Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, please press Star 1 on your telephone keypad if you wish to ask a question, and also just make sure that your line is not muted to allow you to record your question. Our very first question today will be coming from David Kerstens calling from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got two, please. With regard to the targeted revenue from the Eemshaven facility, I think in June, you indicated this year you would be at around EUR 75 million to EUR 80 million in revenue. How does that number look now? And do you still expect the ramp-up to EUR 170 million to EUR 180 million next year with the incremental EBITDA margin of 40%, so about EUR 40 million in incremental EBIT that may be coming in a little bit later? And then the second question on Smart Vision. When you say higher revenues and EBITDA in the second half of the year, the first half, is that an organic statement, organic guidance? And does it imply that year- over- year it will be lower?
And I think in August, you indicated that profitability could recover in Smart Vision to 18% to 19%. Is that still feasible with the continued organic revenue decline in Q3? Thank you very much.
Yeah, I take the question for the Eemshaven. So the turnover will be lower than the EUR 75 to 80 million. That is related then to the postponement, probably between EUR 15 million and EUR 20 million lower than that we had our eye on in June. And the EUR 170 to 180 million is still feasible for next year. And there's some self-help in respect that also partly of orders have been shifted to 2025, and that makes the base easier to achieve. And then with Smart Vision, organic growth is not related to last year. And perhaps Elling can take over this answer.
Yeah. Good morning, David. The second half indeed has revenue and EBITDA growth on an organic basis. So the acquisitions which we did had a relatively small impact compared to the delta we're looking for.
Yeah, so that's versus the first half, but not year- over- year. Year- over- year will be lower.
That's more or less indeed correct. And when you talk about the 18% to 19%, that's something definitely which will be back in the quarters to come.
All right. Understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you, sir. We'll now move to Chase Coughlan of Van Lanschot Kempen. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, all, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two, maybe do them one at a time if that's okay. Starting with Vision, you, of course, speak to the large order that you have booked in Q4, which should support earnings there. But could you provide a little bit more commentary and color, perhaps, about your sort of expectations for the underlying demand there? Also, yeah, primarily to do with the 3D business. Is order intake inflecting there, or how are you looking at that also going into 2025?
Yeah, the large order is, of course, helping in Q4. And some of these orders, they continue even in 2025. So that's already a sound foundation for 2025. And what we see is that the underlying demand, I already referred to the VDMA report, that is not looking to be improved. And I believe it's a good confirmation for us that we invested further in our innovations and in our market position. And that is supporting us to see also new end markets where we are positioned to support growth in the coming quarters. And I believe a better perspective than that we have had or have seen this year, as this year it was still our performance was also still too much related, especially in the first six months, to the difficult market circumstances that we see in the Smart Vision market.
Okay, great. Thank you. And then my second question regarding the fiber optic space. You've, of course, spoken to some de-stocking here and some price pressure, and I suppose some weak underlying demand. And I guess sort of a similar question to my first, but how long should we expect these several factors actually weigh on the results? Is that also going to extend into first half 2025, or do you expect de-stocking to de-stock relatively fast, or how are you looking at that?
Well, I think one of the elements in this market segment is, of course, the lack of CapEx being deployed by the customers. We've seen that, of course, interest rates have a substantial impact on further deployment. And of course, that's the markets which we see gradually coming back as interest rates have dropped. The de-stocking effect, some customers have substantial stock levels, so it takes a while before they have eaten up that part. But at the same time, we have a lot of self-help, of course, by what we announced at the middle of the year, closing down our fiber optic manufacturing activities in the Netherlands and consolidating everything in the new plant which we opened at the end of last year in Poland. So we are able to compensate some of these effects.
And therefore, we believe that we will have a slightly quicker benefit of this than what probably some of the other market parties will have to face with. But we are not talking about the next couple of weeks. It's more that in the first half of 2025, the second part of the first half.
Okay, very clear. Yep. Thank you, gentlemen.
Thank you.
Thank you.
We'll now move to Ruben Devos of Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thanks for letting me on. I just had one follow-up on the site at Eemshaven. Just wanted to better understand the decision to slow down the production ramp. I think you mentioned the technical issues with equipment, but yeah, could you maybe provide a bit more granularity on that decision? And then considering the combined capacity at Lochem and Eemshaven, were the subsea cable sales actually down year- over- year in Q3? That's my first question.
Yeah, to come back to your last question related to the Lochem plant, we are today manufacturing even long lengths cables there, and that is quite unique, and that is having a quite big impact on the output. But it's a good compensation for what we see in the Eemshaven. And we are at a lower turnover than that we were last year in Q3. And yeah, the technical issues are really minor issues, but minor issues can have a big impact during your manufacturing. And we choose to have 100% stable manufacturing with no risk of, let's say, waste. And also the timing of the projects gives us this room. And the small issues can be solved quite rapid because there are really small issues, but the small issues can have a big impact.
Okay, thank you, and then regarding Smart Vision, how much exposure do you currently have to the solar and battery markets? What is still left there? Understood you're still not very positive on those end markets. You've been targeting new end markets, but yeah, how could we think about also maybe projects spilling into the first half next year? So obviously, you have good growth in Q4. I think you've mentioned in the past large order in airports. You also talk about a timing effect in security vision, but what is sort of the risk of maybe some projects spilling into first half next year in Smart Vision? Thank you.
I believe the basis is better what we have today than six or 12 months ago. The battery and solar business looks like it has been a kind of one-off opportunity. It might be that that business comes back, but today it's only a few million turnover that is left in the TKH activities. So the exposure there is very low, more upward potential than downward potential. But again, we have not planned that that market will come back quite rapid. And yeah, the new end markets are really supporting and also driven by our technology position where we can differentiate. And it's the whole package of USPs that is working quite well.
It's also kind of protection in these markets with the complete service level we offer in the market in combination with the software proposition where most of these systems are plug and play, and where we are really unique with what we can offer.
Okay. And then just final question. Was the actual book-to-bill in the last, let's say, six months, yeah, ahead of your sales? Were the order intake higher than your sales in the last six months for Smart Vision?
It was around, let's say, one. And we also have to take into account that the delivery times are really short, and that has an effect on, let's say, also your order intake and the order book. We can now supply within, yeah, sometimes even days, but weeks instead of six or nine months in the previous period. And that has an effect on the order book. So you cannot just look at the ratio. And I believe if you normalize, then you would even see that the ratio of orders coming in in relation to turnover is looking better.
Okay, that's very clear. Thank you.
Thank you very much for your question, sir. We'll now move to Martin den Drijver of ABN AMRO. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you, operator. I'd like to come back as my first question to the Eemshaven. So based on what you see today, would it be fair to assume a single-digit EBITDA loss for subsea? And in relation to that, you didn't quite answer the second part of David's question. 160, 170, 180 might be realizable, but is that EBITDA margin of 14% to 15% also realizable? And then my third question on subsea is, is there any impact that you see now? And I realize it's early days, but that the Trump election could do something with your order book and sales funnel?
For the Eemshaven or for subsea?
For subsea.
Okay. I don't believe that will have a negative impact, but we have to see how everything develops. I believe it's for many still a big question mark what the effect of the elections will be, the result of the election. Yeah, coming back to Eemshaven, the margins, we are developing in the sound way, and we will be able to achieve margins above what you just mentioned in the current plans for the coming year and the order portfolio we see related to that with the, again, EUR 170 million to EUR 180 million turnover.
Okay, and then so to rephrase it, should we, in terms of the delta between the two years, a loss in 2024 versus what you just mentioned for 2025, that's realizable? That's realistic? Just want to get a sense of the delta.
We have, to be honest, we have put a kind of plan B to de-risk, and that is that we have at least organized that Lochem will be available during the first quarter to support, to grow as quick as possible to at least 50 km per month's production. So that's kind of de-risking. On the other side, there's also cost involved, but the overall picture is that we will be able to achieve higher than 15% margins there, and that, yeah, we are making this year a loss, and it's close to double-digit.
Got it. Thanks for that and just one follow-up on that Trump remark. Obviously, we don't know the impact, but let me rephrase. How many products do you have in the U.S. in your backlog, if any?
You also have to realize that we have local manufacturing in the U.S. For the vision group, we can quite quickly organize what is necessary if there would be import duties. We see, besides that, the tire manufacturing business, and that's smart manufacturing, is positioned in the U.S., and it's a quite unique technology where there is no local manufacturer at this moment, and we believe that we can, if there would be import duties, that the customer will pay in the end the import duties, and in that respect, we don't see a big impact.
Okay. Clear. Moving on, you mentioned progress on cost savings. The target was EUR 15 million. How much do you think you will have realized in 2024?
In 2024, it is a very small percentage of the EUR 15 million. And Elling already mentioned with the fiber optic. So we have decided that in the Netherlands, that is all, let's say, prepared and announced internally. And that will kick in in the second quarter of 2025. And there we have in total for the connectivity business around EUR 10 million saving. And I would say that you take into account that that will come in in the second quarter and not yet in the first quarter and not yet in this year. And small savings have been realized, but that is around 2 to 3 million on an annual basis that will also kick in in Q4.
That's predominantly, obviously, in Smart Connectivity.
Yeah.
Okay. And my final question also about smart connectivity. You don't mention anything about onshore energy, de-stocking and demands, projects being delayed or slowly getting back up. Where do we stand today on that onshore energy part of the business?
I believe there has been made a comment in the press release in the Outlook that the onshore business looks better in Q4, and we also have been able to secure number one position in several tenders, so that is a good confirmation. I'm not that positive about the market that there will be a strong recovery in 2025. We started about 12 months ago now with further activities outside of the Netherlands, and that is actually where we see the growth for next year and only for a small part in the Netherlands, and we have received good confirmation about, especially in the high voltage market, that there are opportunities, especially because of the fact that there is a shortage in supply, so yeah, that is in our current budget now for 2025 to get in the end on a growth path for onshore. We have the capacity available.
Yeah, we have good facilities that are also regarded in a very positive way by the potential customers that we are in talks with.
Clear. Thank you very much, gentlemen.
Thank you. What's your question, sir? We will now be going to Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam. Please go ahead.
Good morning, gentlemen. I have two questions. The first one is also on Eemshaven. Can you provide us with some sort of a timeframe for those startup costs and technical issues to be fully solved? Say will that be in the first half next year, second half next year? And in addition to that, when do you expect the full operational efficiency of the Eemshaven plant without having to also operate that second plant in Lochem?
Yeah, the good news is that we are making good progress and that the current situation that we are running. But we have seen that in August, a kind of surprise came up with a small issue that in the end has a big impact. And so we cannot give a 100% guarantee if there will be no other small issues. And that is mainly related to the probes in the heating. You need to have higher utilization and more capabilities to be manufactured to have the certainty that everything is running smooth. Our current projection is that it could be running smooth in the first half year. And my current guess is that it might take in the end the smaller issues, but not completely disturbing the output, but let's say for less impactful situations.
Again, with the additional capacity from Lochem, we should be able to manufacture the 15 km.
Okay. But you mentioned first half next year largely solved. Will that mean that during the entire year you will keep Lochem as sort of a backup facility with sort of a double-cost structure? Or will you start scaling it down a bit in Lochem?
Plans for the first half year. And if we see, let's say, if the manufacturing continues as it is doing now, we can, of course, bring down the capacity at an earlier stage. It could also be that at first we even want to manufacture more than the 15 kilometers to have also a kind of buffer situation. And so there are more options. The target is to get to the EUR 170 to 180 million turnover coming year. And the impact is about a EUR 6 to 8 million additional cost that we have to bear to achieve that. And there is no upside at this point of time related to the cost. It's more a downside opportunity if everything continues to run smooth.
If I look at your quarterly numbers on sales, gross margin, and operating profits, excluding exceptionals, then I can calculate your underlying operating costs without exceptionals. And in Q1 and Q2, they were fairly similar, around EUR 177 million per quarter, and then they suddenly dropped to EUR 160 million in Q3. What happened? And is there more potential? Well, you mentioned the EUR 15 million program, but I think that's probably more for your cost of sales instead of the OPEX. So what is happening there exactly?
Well, we always have a little bit of that kind of pattern. Third quarter has a little bit of a different profile in terms of working days. So that has some impact on some cost items. But of course, also here, we had the divestment of EKB. Of course, also through the period of H1, we had gradually the divestment of HE as well. So in the like-for-like, these are items you have to take into account as well. Indeed, the EUR 15 million, that's much more, as Alexander also mentioned, towards EUR 25 million. So that's not the reason why OPEX is down. And of course, the fact that revenue is at a lower level, also that affects some cost items that you see back in the lower OPEX.
Okay. So there's a little bit of variable explanation, but if I look at, for instance, Q1 sales and Q3 sales, they're not hugely apart. And of course, there's always some M&A impact. But then EUR 177 million versus EUR 160 million seems like quite a steep drop. So yeah, that's what got me thinking of what's happening. So this 160, it's not necessarily the new normal going forward or for Q4. When you expect a good, very good Q4, let's say sales-wise as well versus Q3, then you will not automatically have that 160 in your OPEX.
It will be nice if that would happen, but that's not the way it works. There is still a relation between the revenue levels and some of the OPEX which we have. And of course, as said, I mean, we did a lot of steps in order to bring down on the structural level the OPEX, but that's not yet in the second half of this year. So, it's third quarter OPEX is not a good reference for revenue, but it's not a good reference for the coming quarters.
Okay. Helpful. Thank you.
Thank you very much, sir. We'll now be taking Martin Verbeek of The Idea. Please go ahead.
Good morning. It's Martin Verbeek of The Idea. Firstly, you mentioned that you expect your order book to be more or less the same level as year-end 2024 compared to 2023, if I understood you well. Have you taken account in the statement the signing of these new contracts for Eemshaven to be signed shortly?
Yes, we have taken into account that we have this.
Okay. Okay. Fine. But then more or less, the order book of SC will increase. That more or less also would indicate that your order book for Smart Manufacturing will come down a little bit compared to last year. Is that a fair conclusion?
That could be possible, yes.
Okay.
Really high because of the fact that we had built up the order book, let's say delivery. So that one of the facts we had by the end of last year, that will be, let's say, normalized. And that could be because of that, then the order book in the Smart Manufacturing is somewhat lower. And we did do divestments there. We also have to take into account that.
Normally, you already provided your backlog full year and half year. And as of first quarter, you also mentioned the backlog in absolute terms. This quarter, you did not. So are you willing to disclose your order book at this stage at the end of Q3?
No. I mean, if you look at the current scope of our activities, we have more and more projects coming in. And we will disclose more about the order intake also in the subsea with the specific projects which we acquire. We have decided that it's better to do this on a half-year basis in terms of disclosure and during the half year to give you an update on the actual project intake. We see a lot of, let's say, signed contracts within a period of September to October. This kind of effect, I think, will get a little bit out of balance or taken out of context. And that's why we have decided to move towards a half-year publication. But in the meantime, as I said, we'll have some more disclosure on the wins during the quarter itself.
Okay. Concerning your funnel of 52 projects over 9,000 kilometers of inter-array, that has been unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Is it also fair to conclude that you were not working on any contract in the Swedish waters?
No. Not on these contracts. Now, the 13, you mean that have been canceled?
Yeah. Correct. And then lastly, from my side at this moment, apparently, there's also a kind of delay in producing those inter-array cables. Is there a chance that you might be still able to deliver on time, or is there a chance that you might be faced with a penalty for late delivery?
At this moment.
Okay. Thanks very much.
Thank you very much, sir. Next question will be coming from Thibault Leneeuw of KBC Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I'm just looking towards the guidance, the outlook for full year 2024. If we look at the current year-to-date achieved EBITDA, then for the fourth quarter, you expect an increase at the low end of the guidance of around EUR 20 million in the EBITDA. That seems quite a lot. So that would mean that you're very confident on the project and division segment and in the connectivity.
I can look at it in different ways. I mean, you're quite right, actually, if you use a certain reference point and depend on it. The other point is, of course, that the delta, which is partly caused by a poorer third quarter, leads, of course, to a substantial uptake for the fourth quarter, but that's also on the back of what we discussed earlier, some of the larger projects which we have anticipated to be in the fourth quarter as well. So from that point of view, in the fourth quarter, as you can see from the previous years as well, it carries a fairly high EBITDA ticket, and we have some help this year with, of course, as disclosed earlier, the larger contracts which are going to be supplied within the division segment in the end of the year.
And then second question is with respect to the gained market share. You mentioned on the onshore segment that there you seem to be getting some market share. Where exactly are you gaining market share and what is the statement based on?
This is all related to onshore energy. Yeah. That's the international position where we have not been very active because we had 100% utilization of our capacity, and there are big opportunities. This is a multi-billion market, and we are not looking for a billion turnover. We are looking for, let's say, 30 to 50 million turnover to make a big step in our utilization, and that looks quite promising.
Then a final question. Given a lot of divestments and investments in 2024, how should we look at the depreciation levels in 2024 and 2025? What do you think should be a normalized depreciation level going forward? Just a small bookkeeping question.
We're not deciding on individual cost line items. Of course, if you look at our CapEx program, clearly we have completed by far the strategic investment program already earlier this year. From that point of view, there is on the CapEx side a more normalized level going forward. Of course, with the newly established facilities as part of the strategic investment program, there will be a further uptake in depreciation. I'm not going to give you a specific line item on the depreciation, for example, of the Eemshaven. That goes a little too far.
Thank you. That's all from me.
Thank you very much, sir. We will now go to David Kerstens calling from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking a follow-up question. I'm still struggling to understand the guidance for organic sales for full year 2024 to be relatively stable. You already indicated that Smart Vision in the second half will likely be lower. Smart Manufacturing, I think the comp in the fourth quarter will be even more challenging than in Q3. Does that mean that the recovery should all come from Smart Connectivity? And you would actually have to assume quite a big delta to get to stable organic revenues for the year. Can you give some indication on how you see that in the second half, year- over- year, please? Not first half.
If you look at Smart Manufacturing, there, of course, year-on-year, the upswing which we have seen in the last couple of quarters, and also the fact that we have, and you might have seen that maybe in the outlook, we have a little bit more positive tone to the outlook on Smart Manufacturing in the sense that it's slightly lower, and at H1, we mentioned lower. So there is a little bit more positive delta coming in that particular area. I think that's one of the areas where maybe you might be a little on the low side.
What do you assume for Smart Connectivity in Q4 organic growth to get to stable revenue for the full year?
If you look at, not again on the individual quarters, but if you look at Smart Connectivity, then the second half top line is more or less with some bandwidth in line with the first half. I hope that gives you enough information to make your analysis on this. Of course, the largest deltas as a result of the divestments have been within connectivity. We have disclosed in the press release in one of the footnotes the exact details on how much that has been.
Yeah. No, but I was referring only to organic growth. So you're guiding for flat organic growth for the year. So organically for the fourth quarter, you would need to have quite a big improvement. And you already indicated that Smart Vision will likely be lower in the second half. So the increase there in the fourth quarter is maybe only 8%, at best offsetting the decline in Q3. The comp Smart Manufacturing in Q4 is even more challenging than in Q3. So the minus 0.2% in Q3 will likely be worse in Q4. And then to get to flat for the year, you need to have a huge uptick in Smart Connectivity. Is that realistic to assume?
David, on your first question about half an hour ago, you referred to the full year comparison in Smart Vision. And the full year comparison, it's slightly lower. But that means that H2 this year is substantially higher than H1. Especially Q4.
Exactly. Because that's where also the going out.
Understood. Thank you very much, gentlemen.
Okay.
Thank you very much for your question, Mr. Kerstens. Ladies and gentlemen, once again, if you have any questions or follow-up questions, please do press star one at this time. Our next question now will be coming from Martin den Drijver of ABN AMRO. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you, Operator. I just wanted to come back to smart manufacturing. Can you talk a little bit about the order intake in the quarter and perhaps also the behavior of your customers? It's not like they're not facing some challenges with OE volumes down and lower EV growth. So can you talk a little bit about the behavior of your clients in smart manufacturing order intake?
Yeah. Nothing has really changed compared to the previous quarters in respect of the behavior. We have already seen for a longer period, I believe it's more than 12, 18 months that the Tier 1s have not been very active. And that has not changed. I believe even in your report, you made a remark about that. And so the Tier 2s and Tier 3s are doing quite well. And for the whole year, we are still looking at a very high, let's say, order intake for the year, probably a little bit lower than the whole year last year. But also still some very exciting projects that we have never seen before. They are not yet in the book. It's not yet 100% that they will come.
But also that gives a quite good perspective if we would be able to win one of these bigger projects that are coming from also even new customers.
Are those related to the UNIXX lineup, or is that just a mix of the smart line?
That's a mix.
That's a mix. Okay. And is there anything else you would like to add about the UNIXX and the developments, more customers testing the unit, or anything that could help us understand that transition into the full commercialization of that product?
We are making really good progress, especially also with respect to the modules that we are penetrating further and further in the industry. There's a lot of time to do these investments, and yeah, we are making very good progress with one key customer, and others are in the pipeline.
Okay. Thank you. That's it from my side.
Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, as a final reminder, if you wish to ask a question, do please press star one. And we do not appear to have any further questions coming in at this time. Mr. Van der Lof, I'd like to pass the call back over to you for any additional closing remarks. Thank you.
Yeah. Many thanks for your attendance and the good interaction we had in this conference call. Yeah. I'd like to wish you all a successful day and hope to see and speak to you in the coming months.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this will end today's conference call. We thank you for your attendance. You may now disconnect. Have a good day and goodbye.