Thank you and good morning, everyone. My name is Matt Halliday. I'm the Managing Director and CEO of Ampol Limited, and welcome to our 2025 Half-Year Results Call. During the presentation, we'll be referring to the documents lodged with the ASX this morning, and before beginning, I'll draw your attention to the notice on slide two. I'm joined by our CFO, Greg Barnes, who will discuss the financial results in more detail, and following the presentation, we'll take questions. Also joining us on the call today are Brent Merrick, Kate Thomson, Michele Bardy, Lindis Jones , and Faith Taylor. I'll start with our safety performance. As you know, personal safety remains a key focus for all of us at Ampol. I'm pleased to report that we are at near historical best levels in personal safety performance in convenience retail.
While we also had good recordable injury performance at Z Energy, I want to note that we did have some incidents related to electrical safety that did not result in injuries. In response, Z Energy conducted a stand-down for safety and issued a safety alert to all contractors. We've also initiated a contractor safety uplift program to reinforce safe work practices. In F&I, we've initiated a safety reset and refreshed safety management processes. These efforts are aimed at driving meaningful improvements in person`al safety through the second half of 2025. Our commitment remains unchanged, ensuring every team member goes home safely at the end of each workday. Turning to process safety, we had one Tier 1 and one Tier 2 process safety incident in F&I.
The Tier 1 incident was a loss of crude oil from a tank that was all safely contained in the bund as designed due to damage caused by Cyclone Alfred. It's important to say that no oil was spilled to the environment. Repair work continues to replace the tank roof, and there were no injuries. We've completed a thorough investigation of the incident. Turning now to performance overview on slide five. Looking at our financials first, our RCOP EBITDA was $649 million, and our RCOP EBIT was $404 million. In a difficult economic environment, our focus on growing earnings in retail fuel and convenience and commercial markets has reduced our exposure to the more cyclical commodity-linked earnings.
RCOP NPAT, excluding significant items, was $180 million, while the statutory loss of $25 million was driven by the movements in the historic cost of crude and product inventory during the half and significant items. Total fuel sales were 12.45 billion liters. Net borrowings, excluding leases, held pretty constant at approximately $2.8 billion, and leverage was 2.8x adjusted net debt to EBITDA due primarily to the weaker earnings in the last 12 months and particularly the second half of last year. The Board declared an ordinary dividend of $0.40 per share, representing a payout ratio of around 53% of our RCOP NPAT, excluding significant items. The interim dividend declared releases a further $41 million of franking credits as we continue to meet our commitment to shareholders to release available franking credits in the most efficient manner.
Turning now to slide six. While RCOP EBITDA was lower than the first half of last year, this result demonstrates a much stronger composition of earnings. Growth in retail fuel and convenience and strong performances from the commercial businesses in both Australia and New Zealand continue to reduce our exposure to the more cyclical parts of the business. Total sales volumes were 12.45 billion liters, largely reflecting a conscious decision to reduce discretionary activity in F&I International and focus on optimizing supply into our core demand shorts in Australia and New Zealand.
I'll now hand over to Greg to take you through the details of the group and segment performance.
Thank you, Matt. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to turn to slide eight. We can see the detail behind total fuel sales volumes during the period. While the group sales volumes were down compared to the prior corresponding period, the shortfall is largely due to reduced spot sales in our international business, where there were limited third-party supply opportunities in a relatively unpredictable geopolitical environment. Australian wholesale volumes were down marginally after you look through the less favorable buy-sell balance in the period. Essentially, this is a result of leaning more on domestic third-party supplies following Cyclone Alfred and its impact on the refinery. Convenience retail fuel sales reduced by 4.6% at a headline level, largely in base-grade petrol volumes, which is reflective of our focus on optimizing premium fuels.
Industry volumes were down 3% for the same period, reflecting a somewhat unusual combination of cycling a leap year, Cyclone Alfred, and the fact that Easter and Anzac, a public holiday, fell in the same week. Headline volumes for Z Energy were up 1.6%, where jet volumes were actually up 9% year on year. Wholesale volumes were generally strong, and our retail segmentation strategy is proving to be effective in quite a difficult economic environment. We turn to our results on slide nine. We communicated our headline results for the half in late July. In summary, given it was a challenging period for refining and with global concerns about growth, it's somewhat unsurprising that group EBITDA and EBIT were down compared to the first half of last year. That said, the overall result reinforces the strength and resilience of Ampol's integrated business model.
In particular, the consistent growth in earnings from retail fuel and convenience and the resilience of our commercial businesses across both Australia and New Zealand. It's quite an important point to pause on. The acquisition of Z Energy in 2022 has materially changed the resilience of our value chain and our earnings base. It's increased the size of our market short and increased the mix of earnings derived from retail and marketing activities. This will be further extended on completion of the EG acquisition in the middle of 2026, which of course is subject to ACCC approval. On earnings, we reported a RCOP NPAT excluding significant items of $180 million.
This result includes a lower than average effective tax rate, which is partly timing related as well as a result of a favorable outcome with the tax office following our proactive engagement with them on the treatment of certain payments made by our Singapore operations during the period. It's worth noting that while interest was flat year on year, we did increase the amount of capitalized interest from around $9 million last year to $19 million this year. This reflects the aggregate spend on multi-year projects, particularly the low sulphur gasoline project at our Lytton Refinery. The statutory result includes inventory losses after tax, being the adjustment to bring cost of sales to their historic cost for statutory accounting purposes in a period where crude and refined product prices trended down over the period.
Significant items include the impact from the simplification of our energy solutions business, predominantly divesting the retail electricity businesses in Australia and New Zealand, as well as the impact of Cyclone Alfred on Lytton before insurance recoveries, which we expect to receive in future periods. Slide 10 is a waterfall that just shows the key movements in group EBITDA and EBIT. It's great to see convenience retail in Australia and New Zealand's business continuing to deliver growth. You can also see that we successfully delivered around $30 million related to our previously announced productivity program. These have largely come from demurraged cost reductions, enhanced productivity, and prioritization of repairs and maintenance activities at Lytton in particular, at labor and energy savings in convenience retail, including site conversions to our value-oriented U-Go offer.
With many initiatives well progressed, we will meet our target of $50 million in productivity savings for the full year in 2025, as well as $30 million of additional benefits from the energy solution simplification program in 2026. We'll dive a little bit deeper into each segment on the next few slides. Slide 11, you've seen before, but that looks at our KPIs from our convenience retail business. It's great to see the team delivered another period of earnings growth, which is proof that our strategy in retail is working. We've improved the quality of our network, having spent several years addressing our underperforming tail, investing in our premium and high waste sites, as well as executing on our segmentation strategy, including the rollout of U-GO.
This track record and capability gives us confidence as we look ahead to the acquisition of EG Australia, which will bring further scale benefits to both the Ampol Foodary brand it offers, as well as our U-GO self-service model. You can see the results in the strategy playing out in our stats. Total retail fuel volumes were down 4.6%, largely in a reduction in base-grade petrol volumes. Premium fuel sales penetration increased by 1.6% to 56.4%, helping to grow fuel contribution year on year. In terms of the store, we've continued to successfully outrun the industry's decline in tobacco sales, growing gross margin from shop through growth in other high margin products. Tobacco is now a much smaller part of the retail store performance. For the half, it represented less than 20% of total store sales and around 10% of store gross contribution.
The chart on average basket value is also encouraging. Basket value has remained steady despite tobacco, typically our largest item in the basket, falling 29% year on year. You can see a very clear increase in the contribution from other products, which have grown at nearly 6% compounded growth rate over the last five years. Turning to slide 12, you can see how this plays through in the improvement in convenience retail earnings. Earnings growth versus the prior corresponding period is due primarily to a favorable fuel mix, where our combined continued focus on site profitability over volume meant we lost a little bit of share in base grade, but improved our premium fuel mix. This led to net higher contribution from fuel. You'll also see we've called out our productivity savings in convenience retail through the period.
They're largely driven by labor optimization as well as improved energy efficiency and usage across the sites. Discipline cost management remains a key focus for the retail team, optimizing labor expense so we've been able to largely offset wage increases this year. During the period, we also successfully transitioned our wholesale supply agreement to Metcash, where we expect to deliver further productivity gains in future periods. Turning now to Z Energy's key metrics, which are on slide 13. The Z Energy acquisition continues to be a success for the group, delivering beyond its acquisition business case, and the local team continue to execute well in market. The slide shows the trends in Z Energy's retail key metrics for the first half over the past six years. This includes the time before Ampol acquired Z , and it's presented in New Zealand dollars.
Beginning with fuel and shop gross margin for the Z branded channel, our result reflects not only strong operational execution but also the resilience of their model. Average basket value at the bottom right graph reflected another lift in performance. The team at Z has focused on high margin on-the-go categories such as coffee, which has grown through a combination of a barista offer and in-app sales. This has also been supported by their store refresh program. The Z team also commenced the rollout of U-GO self-service sites during the period, with 15 sites converted by June 30, 2025. While this proposition is new in the New Zealand market, it has launched well and we're encouraged by early data, which is in line with our expectations. On slide 14, you can see the waterfall for the New Zealand segment, and it's also in Kiwi dollars.
The movement reinforces my earlier comment on integrated fuel margin growth, which includes supply from Ampol's trading and shipping team. Overall, it's a pleasing result during a period of real economic weakness for the country, leading to a very cost-conscious consumer. If we jump to F&I on slide 15, we can see that result in more detail. I think it's fair to say it's been a frustrating period for the refinery and the team at Lytton. Refining margins hovered at the lower end of the cycle for much of the period, with Lytton refiner margins averaging U.S. $7.44 per barrel for the half, down 28% compared to the first half last year. Similarly, performance was impacted by Cyclone Alfred. That said, we did see an improvement in refining margins at the back of the second quarter, which returned the refinery to profitability for the half.
We received no payments under the Fuel Security Services Payment or the FSSP regime during the period, and Matt's going to talk to our re-engagement with the federal government and the department on this matter when he returns to wrap up the presentation. If I turn to slide 16 in relation to F&I Australia, you can see that it delivered another very solid performance. Wholesale volumes were down slightly in our own retail business and in third-party retail channels. However, the biggest impact was in buy-sell balances, which have no meaningful impact on margins in this segment. They compared unfavorably to the prior year as we increased our reliance on domestically sourced product to fill short-term production gaps during the refinery outage caused by Cyclone Alfred. Other sectors held up well, with jet being another strong performer.
RCOP EBIT result was broadly in line with the same time last year. It's quite a pleasing result, actually underlying, given the weakness in freight spreads over the period, impacted our natural infrastructure and sourcing advantage that we would typically experience. Improved margins in metal distillates and good cost management helped counter this impact. As we said at the trading update in July, F&I International was marginally profitable during the period, and you can see that on slide 17. It remained a very difficult trading environment for the team in the first half, with weak freight markets discussed a moment ago and limited blending opportunities for third-party sales, compounded by an unpredictable geopolitical environment. Consequently, the team saw limited opportunities for meaningful margins in third-party spot sales, and this is reflected in both volumes and profitability of the international business.
If we turn to our balance sheet and cash flow, you can see that on slide 18. We exited the half with net borrowings of just over $2.8 billion, which is in line with where we were at the end of 2024. Half-year operating cash flows were $355 million. Operating cash flows presented in this slide are net of lease payments and were impacted by the timing of shipments as well as duties payable in New Zealand late in the half. Tax instalments were $21 million. As I discussed a moment ago, a combination of timing and geographic mix of earnings led to a lower than average effective tax rate, and we also benefited from the favorable engagement with the ATO on an international tax matter that I discussed earlier.
Capital expenditure was approximately $201 million. This is a net number, and it's net of AUD 87 million Australian that we received from the divestment of our interest in Channel Infrastructure during the period. Net interest was $120 million, including capitalized interest of around $90 million. Thanks for listening. I'm going to hand back to Matt, and I'll come back for questions at the end.
Great. Thanks very much for that, Greg. We're now on slide 20. Before we close the presentation, I'd like to give an update on our strategic objectives. I'll speak to the EG Australia acquisition in a moment, but I would like to first focus on what we achieved in the first half. Our strategy revolves around three pillars: enhancing the core business, expanding from a rejuvenated fuel and convenience platform, and evolving the offer for our customers as their needs change. As part of the decision to continue refining, we made a commitment to upgrade the refinery to produce 10 ppm sulphur gasoline. During the half, we made substantial progress on the ultra-low sulphur fuels project and expect to realize improved gasoline cracks for this product once we begin manufacturing.
At the same time as our decision to continue refining, the federal government committed to the Fuel Security Services payment, which was designed to support domestic refiners during periods of low margins. Ampol has not received support from the FSSP to date, despite declining refiner margins, and we are working with the federal government to review the scheme. Last year, we announced to the market our intention to deliver a $50 million nominal cost reduction through 2025. As Greg mentioned earlier, we're pleased to report that the team has made substantial progress against this target, having delivered savings of around $30 million in the first half. The key drivers are listed on this slide, and this puts us well on track to deliver the $50 million target by year-end. We have a clear strategy to grow our Australian retail footprint and offer.
In the first half, we made good progress in organic growth opportunities to meet our plans to deliver a 5% CAGR over the next five years. This includes a focus on highway site upgrades, with the M4 site at Eastern Creek eastbound now open, westbound to open this week, as well as exploring opportunities for network segmentation, including premium store refreshers and the rollout of our value-oriented U-GO offer. Z also commenced its rollout of U-GO sites in New Zealand and has launched its new digitally-based loyalty program during the half, following the closure of Flybuys in New Zealand. Its rollout of premium site refreshers will also continue in the second half. As we look to the future, we are evolving the business to support our customers through the energy transition.
The on-the-go public fast-charging network rollouts are progressing in both Australia and in New Zealand on our forecourts as well as on third-party destination sites. We've reached 180 bays across 69 sites in Australia and 184 bays across 56 sites in New Zealand. We will continue to adjust the pace of our rollout, having regard to the uptake trends we see for EVs and the supply side challenges we see in rolling out grid infrastructure. We're also exploring solutions for the hard-to-abate heavy transport sector, with a focus on renewable fuels, including imports, co-processing at Lytton, and the potential for the production of SAF and renewable diesel at a buyer refinery at Lytton, which alongside our partners has continued to progress through the Pre-FEED study phase. Now moving on to the acquisition of EG Australia.
We're excited to announce this deal to the market last week, as it represents a logical next move in our journey to grow our fuel and convenience earnings. It will strengthen the quality of our earnings by further shifting our mix towards more predictable, retail-driven sources and reducing exposure to cyclical segments like refining and trading. EG Australia is a business we know well in a market we know well, and we're uniquely placed to leverage our capability as a known and trusted brand in fuel and convenience retailing. A larger combined network will also allow us to better serve a broader customer base through the expansion of our Ampol Foodary convenience retailing network, the accelerated rollout of our value-oriented U-GO offering, and the expansion of the Woolworths Everyday Rewards program.
The acquisition will provide strong financial returns, and we're targeting high single-digit pro forma EPS accretion and double-digit pro forma free cash flow per share accretion. These compelling financial metrics reflect the quality of the combined networks and the disciplined structure of the acquisition. We've identified $65 million to $80 million in largely cost-related synergies, which we expect to realize by the end of the second year post-completion, with further upside from a turnaround in fuel volumes, including through U-GO, and better execution of our card offer and Woolworths Everyday Rewards partnership, as well as better store performance through the optimization and execution of range and mix across our segments. Today, we've provided a little extra detail to help you model the EPS accretion by providing the DNA assumed. You can find that in the appendix of the presentation lodged with the ASX this morning.
We remain very much value-driven in selecting our acquisition opportunities, with our most recent major acquisition of Z Energy continuing to deliver value for the group. Further details on the acquisition and its benefits can be found in the announcements lodged with the ASX last week. Turning now to our key priorities for the second half of the year, I'll just touch on a few items as we've already covered others. Progressing the EG Australia acquisition through to completion by the middle of 2026 will obviously be a key focus. We are also aiming to complete the ultra-low sulphur fuels project around the end of the year, and we'll begin importing 10 ppm gasoline in September this year to enable supply chain flushing in time for the new fuel quality standard to take effect.
We are also focused on working with the federal government on the FSSP review to ensure domestic refining is adequately supported during periods of weaker margins. We also continue to progress our EV charging rollout in Australia and New Zealand, as well as opportunities to progress the supply of renewable fuels for our customers through both import channels and evaluating onshore manufacturing. I'd like to close out today with a view of the current trading conditions and outlook. Ampol continues to navigate a dynamic trading environment, managing the items within our control. Overall, cracks in July and August so far have remained stronger than in the first half, driven by diesel in July and a recovery in gasoline more recently.
LRM for July was relatively stronger at $9.95 per barrel, and we expect normal operations at Lytton to resume by late September following the restart of the alkylation unit post the T&I. Trading across our F&I, ex-Lytton, convenience retail, and New Zealand segments is expected to follow first-half trends, with the modestly improved international market conditions for product cracks and freight being positive for our international business as we look ahead. Importantly, our OpEx in energy solutions has peaked following our decision to exit retail electricity, and we are making good progress on our productivity initiatives more broadly. Looking ahead, our net CapEx guidance for 2025 is reaffirmed at approximately $600 million, which is driven by the ultra-low sulphur fuels project, highway site developments, and the maintenance turnaround activities at Lytton.
Over the medium term, we see significant opportunity to grow fuel and convenience earnings, particularly through the EG Australia acquisition subject to ACCC approval and the continued segmentation and rollout of our value-oriented U-GO offer. Our integrated value chain positions us well to manage geopolitical disruptions, and the shift to 10 ppm gasoline should support stronger refining margins. With an upgraded network, food service potential, and a sharpened focus on EV charging and renewable fuels, we are well placed to lead through the energy transition and deliver both strong returns and long-term value to our shareholders. We're now on slide 25, and I'd like to close out with the key reasons we believe you should invest in Ampol. Over the past few years, we've built a more resilient business.
In addition to growing earnings, we've progressed towards a portfolio with a stronger, higher quality earnings mix and reduced exposure to cyclical earnings. As shown in the chart on the right-hand side of this page, this transformation is set to accelerate further with the acquisition of EG Australia, which further grows our fuels and convenience earnings base. This acquisition also helps to address the biggest headwind in our F&I Australia business in terms of declining volumes. This acquisition presents compelling financial returns for shareholders, and we're targeting high single-digit pro forma EPS accretion and double-digit pro forma free cash flow per share accretion. These compelling financial metrics reflect the quality of the combined networks and the discipline structure of the transaction. Our scenario modelling indicates that fuel demand will remain robust well into the 2030s.
This gives us confidence to invest in EG Australia, and our integrated fuels value chain positions us well for sustained performance well into the 2030s. In the near term, both Lytton and F&I International are each poised for a cyclical upswing. We're also well positioned to navigate the transport energy transition. Our integrated supply chain and critical infrastructure ensures fuel security today, while the expanded retail and B2B networks can provide a strong platform for growth in EV charging and renewable fuels over time. We have the flexibility to adapt as the energy transition evolves and as investment returns become clearer. We remain disciplined in our capital allocation, with a clear pathway back to our target leverage range and a proven track record of returning surplus capital to shareholders.
We'll continue to focus on getting the balance right between positioning the business to deliver strong returns through growth, like the acquisitions of EG Australia and Z Energy, while at the same time delivering dividends. That concludes the presentation. Now Greg and I will take your questions, and we also have Brent, Kate, Michelle, Lindis, and Faith on the line, and I may direct questions through to them. With that, we'll take our first question, please.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Dale J. Koenders and Barrenjoey . Please go ahead.
Good morning, Matt, Greg, and team. I was hoping firstly you could just provide a little bit of color of where you're up to on the fuel support payment re-indexation discussions. If there's any mechanisms in place, you can kind of steer us towards what you're hoping the outcome will be in and sort of what timeframe.
Thanks, Dale. As I mentioned in my comments and we've talked about over the last couple of months, we're engaged with government on the review and we're working constructively with them. I would say clearly one area in focus is that as costs have escalated, the mechanism hasn't taken that or doesn't take that into account. That's a part of the discussion that we're engaged on as part of the review underway. We'd expect an outcome on that during the second half of this year.
Okay, and then maybe just segment while we're on the refinery, can you talk a little bit about what volume and margin impact you're expecting from the Alky T&I in 2025, and then as we go to 2026, sort of similar, what sort of outages and CapEx you're expecting with the FCCU?
Yeah, Greg.
With the alky unit and some work we're doing on the CDU at the moment, we expect to lose about 130 to 150 million liters, which is the best way to describe it. In that sort of $15 million to $20 million opportunity cost is how I define that. On the refinery next year, I think we have a T&I on the cracker that's going to be about 200 to 300 million liters, I think from memory. I'm just looking at the team. I think it's around 300 million liters. We should be somewhere in a similar volume to this year in terms of year-on-year performance.
What does that mean for CapEx finally? When we think about the $600 million spend this year, how are you thinking about CapEx next year?
We're certainly going through the peak of it now. I'd expect that it will start to tail off at the second half of this year. We do have a T&I next year. Without telegraphing a number too specifically, I would think it'd be sort of somewhere in the $500 millions and then working its way back down into sort of around a more sustainable level of sort of mid-$400 millions from 2027 going forward.
Okay, thanks Greg and Matt.
Just a reminder to please limit yourself to two questions, and then you can rejoin the queue. The next question comes from Rob Koh at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for the presentation. I guess just a minor question. On slide 18 on the net borrowing slide, there's a reference to something called virtual credit card. Excuse my ignorance, I wonder if you could just fill us in on what that is, how that's trended, and why that's excluded from borrowings, please.
Yeah, okay. Just think of it as a credit card. I don't accumulate the points, so don't worry about that. It's just another lending facility that has quite attractive rates. Because of the nature of it, like a credit card, it actually tracks as a payable. The only reference there from memory will be, the cash flows as presented here look through that. What you will see is when you're looking at the statutory cash flow from memory, it prints an operating cash flow of $825 million. That takes into account about a $500 million virtual credit card. In simple terms, it's a borrowing facility that just helps us fund tax payments and the like very efficiently. It just presents slightly differently for statutory accounting purposes.
Thank you. A question I probably could have asked the other day on your EG Ampol announcement. Can you maybe talk to the opportunity to optimize leases across the portfolio there? Are there any coming up? Are there some which are, you know, what direction of leasing spread you might be thinking about, please?
Yeah, so I mean, we manage our lease book in the Ampol network very effectively. I think we've applied that lens as an initial cut to what we think will be the implications for the EG network. That's outlined on, I'll just give you the slide number, it's 35. It has some of the EG Australia metrics, including some thinking in that regard in terms of multiples pre and post 16, so pre AASB 16, so pre or post the lease accounting standard. There will be opportunities, I think, to sort of just set the network right, if you like, to align with our strategy. What we can deliver is both Foodary at scale and U-GO, we get first mover advantage at scale. Invariably, there are sites across both networks that over time you would look to manage down to get your network optimization right for a market.
It's premature to be too specific on that, I think. As we said earlier, there's about 20 sites thereabouts that we expect we would be divesting and we'll make that commitment when we go to the ACCC. We do manage our lease book slightly differently to EG Australia, and I think you'll find that will play out in a lower lease liability once we're through the commission and completing the transaction.
Your next question comes from Michael Simotas at Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. First question from me is on the inventory loss. I guess it's not surprising to have a reasonably substantial loss given the move in oil price over the period. The oil price move was a lot less severe than what it was in the prior sequential half, but the inventory loss is pretty similar. I know timing makes that difficult, but just how do we think about that from here if spot rates sort of broadly prevail? Would that be about neutral now?
Yeah, probably second half on first half from where we see today, you'd see it sort of swing back favorably a little bit. Certainly from product cracks, crude remains soft. Neutral is probably not a bad steer. I mean, naturally we look through it, which is why we present RCOP results because those movements flow through to our customers, which is what sits behind the RCOP measure in the first place. To your the first part of your question, yeah, it's simply timing.
Yeah, got it. I guess we're all just a little bit more focused on the balance sheet than normal, which is why I asked the question, but completely agree with you on earnings. The second one for me on your shop margins, quite a nice uplift on a reported basis, and obviously tobacco mix helps significantly there. It looks like ex-tobacco there might have been a slight decline in shop margin, maybe 20 or 30 basis points. Just wondering if there's anything to call out there. What I'm wondering is maybe in relation to commencing the Metcash supply agreement and whether you may get any benefits there going forward.
Yeah, thanks, Michael. No, we're very encouraged by what Kate and the team continue to achieve in the shop around growth of other categories to well outrun the tobacco decline. I might pass to Kate to add a little more color to that.
Yeah, hi Michael. In terms of margin, just over half of the margin improvement has been driven by our tobacco mix. The other half is coming from better buying, largely through the Metcash wholesale agreement. We have seen improvements coming through, and there's also a small component of QSR margin-driven improvement as well.
Your next question comes from Henry Meyer at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Morning team. As we think about the balance sheet deleveraging over the next 12 months ahead of the EG acquisition, could you share what earnings from Lytton and F&I International you're expecting? Any stress test scenarios you've run to give confidence in having capacity by then?
Yeah, I'll be a little careful in terms of what I say. Obviously, some of that's a bit sensitive, but we've been pretty conservative in our assumptions is what I would say. Think of it as a gradual return over the next couple of years for funding purposes. This is not a forecast. A gradual return to something closer to mid-cycle levels. That's how we went about our funding assumptions. That's what underpins our belief that we'll be back in the range standalone by the coming into 2026 and then post-acquisition of Z Energy and EG in 2027.
Okay, thanks, Greg.
Long run average is about $1,065. If you're straight line from where you are today, where we were in the half, that's probably not a bad read. It's a pretty conservative assumption.
Okay, great. Thank you. Specifically on F&I International, still break-even, where are you seeing a potential recovery in earnings in that business there, and what might be required beyond oil and freight price movements?
Freight is a big one because freight drives arbs between geographies and creates real market opportunities and opportunities for us to leverage our infrastructure, bringing larger ship volume and on larger ships into the East Coast and down to Marsden Point in New Zealand. That's a big source of value. We haven't got heroic assumptions again from a funding perspective, but we certainly have expectations that we can grow that business over time strategically.
We mentioned in our remarks that just in the second half today, things of product markets and freight have tightened a little bit. After the first half, we really focused on supply into our core shorts. I might just ask Brent to add a couple of comments around that.
Yeah, sure. Thanks, Matt. So, Henry, as Matt said there, we're really making sure that we continue to use our assets and people in the best way to maximize margin in the systems we supply. We have, due to market conditions, scaled down what we've been doing to grow internationally. The opportunities will continue to arise, and we can continue to repurpose or add activity when we see things playing out. The capability is still within the business, and we're still set up ready to act when we see things more favorably. I think it's fair to say, heroically—I think the word was said—we're not going to be heroic about it. We are going to continue to just methodically map out ways to efficiently increase earnings from the capabilities we've got.
Your next question comes from Bryan Raymond and J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning. [Macmillan], Kate, just on the tobacco side, have you seen that accelerate in July and August post the regulatory changes from that sort of 29% decline that you saw in the first half? Has it gotten worse? I do recall you guys saying that you sort of don't see it as overly material anymore to the earnings growth outlook in convenience, but just trying to understand that impact a bit more. Thanks.
Yeah, we moved early with the PHB changeover. We made that decision to reduce our exposure on inventory and for risk management reasons. We have seen post the PHB transition tobacco get worse. Our exposure though has reduced to 19% of total sales. Not material moving forward, but certainly it's not improving as some may have hoped.
Probably just trying a little bit of per unit margin recovery to help mitigate as well.
Okay, good to hear. On the second one, it's just on U-GO. I just want to understand that 50% uplift in fuel volumes you're seeing there on those sites and just how the interplay there is with fuel margins on those sites. Obviously, you get a cost save there without the labor. I'm just trying to understand if there's a material discount being offered in order to drive that uplift in fuel volumes, which I recall are more base grades. Is there any more you can share around the profitability fuel margin-wise on those U-GO sites given that uplift? Thanks.
Yeah, I'd say, Bryan, that you know this is really an offer in markets where there's already an offer in market for the more value-conscious consumer. We have stronger dirt strength, I would say, pound for pound. We're competing at that level in that market and looking to optimize the volume margin trade-offs as we always would across the network. In a segment of the market that exists, but which we haven't been competing in very effectively, which is why we've seen the tail off in our base grade volumes and is why equally we're quite encouraged by the performance we're seeing out of our U-GO sites.
Your next question comes from Gordon Ramsay at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Matt, I just want to talk to you a little bit about the convenience strategy and get an update from you in terms of whether there's been any change at the top end. I guess where I'm coming from is before U-Go, there was very much a focus on the premiumization of sites and, you know, to sell as much high octane premium fuel as possible to maximize profitability when volumes were declining. You've now kind of switched down to the low end of your curve and are focusing on that now. I notice that you're talking about a refresh to recommence in two half at the premium stores. In terms of fuel sales, though, is there much change there or are you going to keep on the same kind of focus or is that kind of played out?
Yeah, no change to strategy. Gordon, very much focus on segmentation, and I can assure you that Kate and the team focus on all segments. It's making sure we've got the right offer in the right part of the market. That is the premium end continuing to focus on store refreshers, and in the midstream end focusing on getting the offer right for customers, very much that mix and range. U-GO , we've spent a little bit more time talking about because I think that was the missing element of our retail strategy, if you like. How are we going to compete effectively at that end?
No change to strategy. I think all of those segments are important and all are underpinned by a focus on cost and productivity equally. It's pretty consistent across both sides of the Tasman. If you hear Kate talk about her strategy and what the team's doing or Lindis talk about what we're doing in New Zealand, it's a pretty similar approach to the segmentation of our offer in market.
I guess what I was getting at too is that EG seems to be focused at that lower end, and obviously Foodary an opportunity for more convenience sales.
Yeah, I would say yes, at the lower end, U-GO can play a really important role in the EG network. I would say don't mistake the fact that we haven't talked about the synergies through the expansion of the Foodary offer across the EG network as not being an important part of our focus. It is. We see plenty of potential in rolling the Foodary across the EG network, and you'll hear us talk more about that. It is very much consistent with the more consistent customer experience we can offer across a segmented approach to the integrated network, including through opportunities like the execution of our card offer and our Woolworths Everyday Rewards offer. That's very much consistent with strategy.
Ampol's current network has a higher proportion of premium and highway sites, but this network fits very well into our overall strategy and integrated offer for customers.
Your next question comes from Nicole Penny and Rimor Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning and thank you. You've spoken and talked to the resilience in F&I Australia ex-Lytton. Perhaps can we focus on the medium-term path, and could you elaborate on the specific areas of focus for this business over the coming two to three years to improve its profitability?
Thank you. What I would say is clearly continuing to focus on ensuring we have competitive supply chains to deliver competitive supply to our customers is underpinning our strategy. The number one headwind in that part of the business, as I've mentioned, is the fact that volumes have been going backwards in third-party retail channels, and obviously EG has been a driver of that. We see that the strategy that we have in place through the acquisition of EG plays a really important role together with productivity in ensuring we've got really competitive supply and the right offer going through to our customers. That's what underpins our expectation that we should be able to deliver growth in the earnings of that business, particularly with the EG acquisition in line or slightly exceeding the rate of GDP growth.
Thank you.
Was there a follow-up? Your next question comes from Craig Woolford at MST Marquee. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Matt and Greg. Just wanted to clarify on the convenience segment. Obviously, a good result on the shop margin in percentage terms. You are dealing with fuel volumes that are in decline in the sort of mainstream part of your business. How does that interplay work going forward? Do you need to get some stabilization in fuel volumes in your convenience business to ensure that shop dollar profits can stabilize or improve?
I think what I would say is that the strategy is delivering really well. The execution is delivering really well through the team, and we see a pipeline of activities that we have to continue to grow earnings around 5% at around a 5% CAGR. I would just say that the missing piece of the strategy in terms of the segmented approach to market, as I mentioned earlier, is that at the lower end of the network, we've been leaking base grade share because we haven't had a competitive offer for that customer segment. That's what U-GO addresses, and we think EG can play nicely into that overall, not only because of U-Go, but in terms of the consistency and the value that the execution to execution that Kate and the team can bring to the overall Foodary network once we complete that acquisition.
Okay. On U-GO , you've started the trials in New Zealand as well. Is the economics of the uplift that you shared on the Australian business in previous decks the same as what it will be in New Zealand? My understanding is there are already some unmanned operators in the New Zealand market and quite a value-driven market as well.
Yeah, look, it'll be similar. New Zealand or Z won't have, or U-GO , I should say, won't have first mover advantage in New Zealand. It's a model that's been tried and tested through the likes of Gull and others. What the Z team bring to it is site strength. Right. These are premium sites, whether they're former Caltex or Z Energy sites that can be converted. They also have a good third-party channel through the Foodstuffs PAK'nSAVE network that serves them very well in this segment as well. Economics-wise, yes, at the end of the day, we'll be targeting something similar.
A reminder, if anyone has another question, they can rejoin the queue by pressing star one. The next question comes from Mark Wiseman at Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Good day, Matt, Greg, and team. Thanks for the update today. I just wondered if you could give some perspective on the FSSP renegotiation. Should we be expecting the format of that review to be similar to last time, where the government agrees to revise terms and you agree to commit to running the refinery for another X years moving forward, or could it be more complex than that? For example, some sort of commitment around sustainable aviation fuel and renewable fuels?
Mark, what I would say is the existing framework in the discussions we have across the second half of this year will largely be preserved. It will just deal with the effectiveness of their mechanism to run us through the balancing or the remainder of the FSSP period. As we then broaden out the discussions next year around the longer-term future of refining, better understand the government's objectives and convey our own, you could be looking at kind of different ways to think about how the arrangements could work.
Okay. Congrats on the EG acquisition. I wondered if you could just talk through what areas of discretionary CapEx are you expecting that you'll pull back on with leverage going up a little. It looks manageable, but would things like the electric vehicle charging rollout start to slow down, other aspects that you can sort of dial back for a little while?
Yeah, look, thanks, Michael. It's Greg. What I would say is we're coming to the end of a pretty significant CapEx process with low sulphur fuels. That's going to be the first thing that's going to free up free cash flow, if you like. We're going to continue to pursue selective highway sites. In fact, Kate and the team are opening westbound M4 this week, having opened the fuel side on the east side in recent weeks. We'll continue to selectively do that and build out our network. I think EV charging and locking in those prime sites, which we're seeing quite encouraging results from, remains important. The other thing I would say is the EG acquisition, once we're through the commission and completing, it's not a big CapEx program. It doesn't require a big CapEx program in and of itself.
I mean, as you see, U-GO conversions are in the order of $300,000 as we presented at your conference back in May. They're quite fast payback projects. The sites already carry the Ampol brand. Yes, there's some requirements to sort of rebrand EG stores to Foodary and the like, but generally speaking, it's a pretty low CapEx and a low integration execution cost. In the order of a turn is how I would describe it before you get to U-GO . We're coming to the end of the capital program. I think you'll see free cash lift, and certainly as we exit year-end on the back of the low sulphur program and then ahead of the completion of the EG acquisition.
There are no further phone questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Halliday for closing remarks.
Great. Thanks everyone for joining us. I think it's fair to say we feel good about the momentum we have within our retail businesses on both sides of the Tasman. The EG Australia acquisition is something that we're excited about. It delivers strong returns, strong fit with strategy, and also helps to unlock the source of volume decline within our F&I Australia business. A good catalyst there. We've got both the refinery and I think the international part of the business set for a cyclical upswing. Overall, the quality of earnings and the mix of earnings continue to improve. The EG Australia acquisition certainly reinforces that. Thanks all for your time today. Look forward to talking to you soon. Thanks.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.