Ampol Limited (ASX:ALD)
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Apr 29, 2026, 4:10 PM AEST
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Earnings Call: H1 2023

Aug 21, 2023

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ampol Limited Half-Year Results Call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation, followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Matt Halliday, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My name is Matt Halliday. I'm the Managing Director and CEO of Ampol Limited, and welcome to our 2023 Half-Year Results Call. I'm joined by our CFO, Greg Barnes, who will discuss the financial results in more detail, and following the presentation, we'll take your questions. Also joining us on the call today are Brent Merrick, Andrew Brewer, Kate Thomson, and Lindis Jones, who's taken over as EGM for Z Energy.

During the presentation, we'll be referring to the documents lodged with the ASX and the NZX this morning. I'll start out now with our safety performance on Slide 3. As you know, personal safety remains a key focus for all of us at Ampol. I'm pleased to report that we are either at or close to our best-ever performance levels in all parts of the business.

It's important that we remain vigilant to ensure everyone goes home safely at the end of their day's work. Our annual safety improvement plans are effective in strengthening key controls and driving continuous improvement in performance. It was particularly pleasing to see the safe execution of the repairs to the FCC slide valve at Lytton, noting the elevated risk that arises in undertaking work with less preparation time and at the heights involved.

When it comes to process safety, we have again extended our run of no Tier 1 process incidents, a track record we have maintained now since October 2018. Our comprehensive spill prevention program, which includes working closely with our carrier partners, has now been embedded into business as usual. Turning now to the performance highlights on Slide 4. Looking at our financials first, we've delivered another strong performance.

RCOP EBITDA was AUD 798 million, and RCOP EBIT was AUD 576 million. We saw all parts of the integrated value chain contribute to this result, with strong performances from the non-refining businesses of F&I, Convenience Retail, and Z Energy. Lytton's performance was impacted by the outage to repair the FCC slide valve, while refiner margins also eased from the record levels we saw in the H1 of last year. Statutory NPAT was AUD 79 million, primarily due to inventory losses as crude and product prices declined through the half. Total fuel sales increased to 14.4 billion liters, which is our highest-ever volume for a half, due mainly to the ongoing recovery we've seen in jet fuel sales, the addition of Z Energy, and ongoing growth in international sales.

Leverage was at 1.8 times on a last 12 months basis, and net borrowings were just below AUD 2.4 billion, which Greg will talk to you more in a moment. The strength of our financial performance, the balance sheet and the outlook, has given the board confidence to declare an ordinary interim dividend of AUD 0.95 per share, representing a payout ratio of 69% of RCOP NPAT, excluding significant items. This is towards the top of our payout range. The interim dividend that's been declared releases a further AUD 97 million of franking credits, as we continue to meet our commitment to shareholders to release available franking credits in the most efficient manner. Turning now to our strategic priorities. The strong performance of the business reflects the ongoing delivery of our strategic objectives.

This includes continuing to build our international and retail capabilities that provide strong foundations for further growth. The key achievements this half include the delivery of the Z Energy benefits and synergies on an exit run rate basis, the opening of the Pheasants Nest highway sites, and the expansion of the on- the- go EV charging networks across both Australia and New Zealand. Earlier this year, we released our refreshed sustainability strategy, which continues the Ampol sustainability journey.

The strategy covers 5 focus areas and sets targets out to 2025 and looks to longer-term goals out to 2030. The focus areas are well-being and inclusive workplaces, Indigenous partnerships, supporting communities and nature, circular economy, and decarbonization. Our support of the communities in which we operate continues, as does our focus on safety. In Australia, we celebrated 25 years supporting the Westpac Rescue Helicopter, contributing to community safety.

In New Zealand, Z responded to the impacts of the extreme weather events in the Q1, contributing NZD 65,000 to the response and, of course, ensuring essential supplies were available to affected regions. Turning now to Slide 5. The benefits of our integrated supply chain were on show, on show again this half as we responded to the unplanned FCC outage in Australia and extreme weather in New Zealand. We were able to maintain secure supply to our customers and, at the same time, deliver another strong financial result. Earnings were more than double that of the H1 2021 and in line with the H2 last year at an RCOP EBIT level, albeit they were down compared to the record H1 we saw last year.

Pleasingly, the result demonstrates a much stronger composition of earnings, reflecting the strength and quality of the business right across the value chain. Total sales volumes are the highest they have ever been for a H1. The improvement in Australian and New Zealand volumes is tracking well as the COVID recovery continues. I'll now hand over to Greg to take you through the details of the group and segment performance.

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

Thanks, Matt. Good morning, everyone. We'll go to slide 7, where you can see the details behind the fuel sales volumes. Group volumes were up 25% to 14.4 billion liters, inclusive of a full 6 months of Z Energy of 2.2 billion liters for the period. While we didn't own Z for the full 6 months of the H1 in 2022, its volumes were up 23% on a like-for-like comparison for the full 6 months. Australian wholesale volumes grew 17%, with growth across petrol, diesel, and particularly jet fuel, as air travel continued its recovery. Convenience Retail fuel sales grew 1.1% at a headline level, and 2.7% on a like-for-like basis, after adjusting for network changes. Taking both these markets into account, the combined Australian sales grew 13%.

International sales were up 10% due to increased crude and product sales, including the one-off sale of FCCU feed in response to the outage we had at Lytton. Sales through the US operation also rose. We turn to slide 8, you can see our results. In July last year, we sold Gull, for the purposes of this slide, it's shown in the comparative half as a discontinued operation. With that, our RCOP EBIT for the group was AUD 576 million, which is a very strong result, particularly given the unplanned refining outage. To put that into context, it is more than double the H1 in 2021, and it's in line with the H2 result last year, and therefore equal to our second strongest half ever.

In terms of year-on-year performance, we're comping a period of refining margins, which, when combined with the impact of the refining outage this year, saw us down 17% on a continuing basis. The overall result reinforces the strength of our value chain and our ability to manage what we can control. You can see here we had strong growth on a continuing basis from F&I ex Lytton, Convenience Retail, and we benefit from both a strong performance and a full six months contribution of Z Energy in our New Zealand segment. I'm gonna talk more to each of these segments in a moment. Just on this slide, we reported an RCOP NPAT of AUD 330 million, and a statutory NPAT of AUD 79 million.

The statutory result includes AUD 220 million of inventory losses after tax, reflecting the adjustment to bring cost of sales to their historic cost for statutory accounting purposes in the period, where refined product prices trended down over the period. It also includes significant items of AUD 30 million after tax, the bulk of which relates to unrealized losses from the mark to market of our power purchase agreement in New Zealand, and you should note, we had a much larger gain in the previous period. On slide 9, the waterfall there shows the key movements in group EBITDAR and EBIT. This slide reflects continuing operations only, and therefore, we've excluded Gull from the comparative just to simplify it. We've obviously experienced an extraordinary period of refining margins in the H1 of last year, which this graph highlights.

However, what's really pleasing is the result is how well our sourcing, distribution, and retail businesses are performing. Each of the teams have done a terrific job of operating in some pretty challenging markets. I'm gonna step through those in the next few slides, but on this slide, you can see we continued to invest in future energy. We're doing this very much in a measured and targeted way, and we've made some really good progress in eMobility in particular. The spend this half is consistent with the run rate in the H2 of last year, which was the guidance we provided at year end. Matt's gonna update you on the progress the team are making later in the presentation. Slide 10, that looks at the F&I result in more detail.

As I've said, and I think Matt commented as well, the quality of the result was particularly pleasing, in- including within F&I. I'll talk to some of the specific components of F&I Lytton in a moment, where we had really a strong performance across the board, be it distribution, supply into Australia, or in our international business. On Lytton, specifically, the refiner margin averaged $10.29 US per barrel for the half, and it includes the impact of the FCCU outage in the Q2. Refining margins were $14.90 per barrel US for the Q1, and US $5.66 per barrel for the Q2, with the Q2 impacted by both weaker Singapore cracks and the mix of product we were able to produce during the outage.

I mean, Matt noted this earlier, but we're really pleased with how the team responded to the repair and to the demands of it on our supply chain to ensure there were no impact on our customers. The refinery was back in full operation in June. Refining margins also recovered to US $12.69 per barrel in the month of June. They've strengthened further in July and further again in August to date. On slide 11, just to step through some of the key components of the balance of F&I. Collectively, EBIT grew 54% compared to the same time last year on a continuing basis. It's also 35% higher than pre-COVID levels on a continuing basis. As always, there, there's a number of moving parts in this part of the business.

In Australia, we saw increased volumes, largely from aviation recovery and a more favorable buy-sell balance. Margins improved as markets rebalanced post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which in turn reduced the volatility in quality premiums. The team has also made significant progress in improving both commercial terms and risk management practices to reduce the impact of this sort of volatility. As I mentioned earlier, supply benefits provided some mitigation for the refinery outage, and the Singapore team were also able to price risk manage effectively.

In international, it also made a significant contribution to the group's performance. If you look on that slide, and back in prior years, you can see it's really grown to be a meaningful contributor to group results. Within this performance, I'll just highlight a few things. Sales, particularly of diesel to third-party customers, was strong over the period.

The team continues to generate incremental margin through sourcing of components and blending of fuel, a capability the Singapore team has really built out in recent years. We've also continued to build our capability in sea freight trading, including increased utilization of time-chartered vessels. While this is first and foremost a risk management initiative, it is also a meaningful contributor to the result. As I mentioned earlier, we saw a strong performance in the US trading office, which contributed directly to group profit through crude sourcing in particular. Being situated in the world's largest oil market, the office is also contributing significantly to the broader team's understanding of global dynamics, and therefore its performance more broadly. As I discussed earlier, the international business did benefit from a one-off sale of FCCU feed as a result of the outage.

Slide 12, we'll just look at our KPIs on Convenience Retail. It's been another really strong performance in retail this period. Kate and the team are really delivering very consistent improvements across our network. As you can see, we're providing you with a little bit more information than we normally do, just to assist you with the modeling and understanding of the business. From a results perspective, strong operational execution was compounded by a more favorable retail fuel environment for the half. These factors combined to produce a 31% increase in earnings this year. Total fuel, retail fuel volumes were 1.9 billion liters. That's up 2.7% on a like-to-like basis. Pleasingly, premium fuel sales penetration increased by 2 percentage points to 53.2% for the period.

The prior year was impacted by very high board prices, you might recall, in the H1 last year, pleasingly, the result is also up compared to the H1 in 2021, where it was 52.6%, and I think that's a really good reflection of how well the brand is performing. The good progress in shop performance continued. To give you more color, we've presented shop sales this period on a pre- and post-tobacco basis, and the number we're most focused on is ex-tobacco, where shop sales grew by 5.6% on a like-for-like basis. Tobacco sales fell by about 19% during the period, as the cost of this high-value product to consumers sent demand into non-traditional markets and to things like vapes.

Sales in the more immediate consumption areas, such as coffee, snacks, beverages, they continued to grow in both volume and value terms. This was supportive of underlying growth in sales, as well as gross margin and average basket value, which is a measure we're particularly pleased with. Our network rationalization is essentially complete. 643 stores remain in the company-controlled network. That's a reduction in store count of 3.7%. Obviously, the benefits of this are playing out in improved profitability. You'll also see in our release today that Woolworths and Ampol have mutually agreed to cease expansion of the MetroGo store model. The initial 50-store pilot or rollout has been the subject of review this period. At the end of the day, returns were simply not meeting either party's expectations.

As a result, the existing stores will be rebranded to Foodary in the months ahead. We'll continue to partner with Woolworths on Everyday Rewards, loyalty, and redemptions. Matt will talk more to this in a moment. It's fair to say that this decision gives us greater flexibility over our network and how we execute the next phase of our strategy. Slide 13 just shows some trends in key metrics, really since the transformation began of our retail operations. You can, you can see the marked improvement in gross margin and the growth in sale of other products as our reliance on tobacco sales is reduced.

You can also see that improvement I spoke to a moment ago in average basket value, which has been very consistent. The impact of network rationalization is most pronounced in fuel sales volumes, as the network has been rationalized down from nearly 800 stores in 2019 to the 643 we have today. We're really pleased with the progress of, and quality of the network, the capability we now have in the organization, and we really feel set up to take the next steps. Be it selectively growing our premium store footprint, increasing QSRs on our network where it makes sense, and exploring a more tiered approach to our offer. Slide 14, you can see the contribution to improvement in those Convenience Retail earnings.

It's, after a pretty challenging retail fuel environment in the H1 last year, conditions were much more favorable this half. As I mentioned, the strong shop performance continued with an increase of AUD 2 million, despite the tobacco decline. You can also see here, we've successfully managed an increase in electricity costs and the resumption of normal marketing activity following our rebrand. Turning to the New Zealand segment on slide 15. The segment includes the contribution from both Z Energy and the trading and shipping contribution from our supply team. The acquisition of Z Energy completed in, on the tenth of May, 2022, so we only have 2 months in the comparator here.

We're obviously very happy with the business, and we're delighted with how the management team have delivered on the benefits and synergies expected, including the transition to Ampol supply. Total fuel sales were 2.2 billion liters for the period of ownership, which is an improvement of 23% on the same period last year on a pro forma basis, so on a like-for-like six-month basis. Z's strong market share performance continued, reflecting the quality of its infrastructure in key markets. The RCOP EBIT from the New Zealand segment was AUD 122.8 million, including the contribution from trading and shipping. I will just flag, there was a small adjustment related to purchase price accounting of AUD 1.7 million, and we don't expect this to be a material adjustment going forward.

Okay, turn to our balance sheet and cash flow on slide 16. We finished the half pretty much in line with the opening balance for net borrowings. Half year operating cash flows were pretty pleasing overall. We had a strong RCOP EBITDA performance, which is broadly illustrative of pre-tax operating cash, with inventory losses in the statutory results largely mitigated by lower inventory values in operating cash.

We did a pretty good job of keeping inventory volumes down, particularly in crude inventories, which are increasingly coming from out of the region, putting some pressure on our working capital cycle. We expect this underlying trend to continue. However, a combination of our US office to access advantage crudes for Lytton, and a returns focus sort of process are working well in response to this dynamic. A couple of things I just should call out.

You'll obviously see the increase in tax paid. That's on the back of a record earnings result last year. CapEx was AUD 160 million in the period, and we expect this run rate to increase in the H2. We're still looking at CapEx in the order of AUD 450 million for the full year. Cash outflows from dividends during the period represented the final dividend for FY22, which was AUD 1.05 per share, and the special dividend that we paid at the end of FY22, at AUD 0.50 per share, which was paid at the same time. The payment of the interim ordinary dividend of AUD 0.95 per share was declared today. That'll fall into the H2 cash flows.

Finally, from me, just to round out on capital management. As the headline says on slide 17, we're really just striving to get the balance right between delivering for today, rewarding our shareholders, and investing in the future in a measured way over time. As Matt said, and I just touched on, we've declared an AUD 0.95 per share, fully franked interim dividend, and that's at the top of our payout range. We exited the period with net debt of AUD 2.4 billion, and leverage of 1.8x of EBITDA. This has enabled the dividends we declared today, and we continue to target leverage sustainably towards the bottom end of our 2x-2.5x EBITDA range by the end of 2023. Thanks for listening. I'm gonna hand back to Matt to complete the presentation. I'll come back for questions. Thanks.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Great. Thanks for that, Greg. We'll now turn to slide 19. Before we close the presentation and go to questions, I'd just like to provide an update on our strategic objectives and how they position Ampol to deliver ongoing strong financial performance. At our 2020 Investor Day, we unveiled a new purpose and strategy designed to build a more resilient business, to deliver growth in the medium term, and then to evolve the business for the longer term. Our strategy revolves around three pillars. That's enhancing the core business, then expanding from a rejuvenated fuels and convenience platform, and evolving the energy offer for our customers as their needs change. As you can see on the slide, and from our, our financial results that we're presenting, the strategy is delivering.

The rebrand to Ampol has been successfully completed, as demonstrated by the growth in retail earnings, the volume performance of the business that we're seeing coming out of COVID, and the growth in Amplify premium fuel penetration, now at 53.2% of fuel volumes. The network rationalization and non-fuel EBIT uplift strategies have led to a near doubling of earnings from Convenience Retail from the H1 of 2019 to the H1 of 2023. This includes the delivery of the AUD 85 million per annum non-fuel EBIT uplift target two years ahead of schedule, reflects the fact that the performance and returns from our core Foodary offer have materially improved. Ampol completed the 50 MetroGo store pilot late last year, prior to committing to a broader rollout.

While the MetroGo stores showed improved sales and were profitable, as Greg mentioned, the return on capital employed did not meet expectations. Both Woolworths and Ampol worked to adjust the model to improve the level of returns. However, with the improved performance of Ampol's own Foodary offering, the returns from the MetroGo stores were not sufficient to warrant further investment in a broader rollout. The current cohort of MetroGo stores will be rebranded to Foodary now over the coming months. The relationship with Woolworths remains very strong, and we will continue to partner on Everyday Rewards, loyalty, and fuel redemptions, and we'll continue to look for opportunities to partner on meaningful innovation that drives customer engagement.

Ampol has made significant progress in recent years in developing its fuel and convenience offer, and we enter the next phase of our strategy on a much stronger footing and with some very good momentum. Importantly, with the clarity on the MetroGo relationship, Ampol gains much greater flexibility in how we leverage our network in executing the next phase of our strategy. Our strategic focus is going to be centered on profitable growth across 3 key areas. Number one, investing in high-quality highway sites to deliver strong returns.

Secondly, by unlocking the QSR potential across more of our premium network. Then finally, through a tiered Foodary offer, with the potential to take a more refined micro-market approach where appropriate. After making the decision to keep Lytton open, the refining supply-demand balance has swung into a more favorable position, and the fundamentals actually look supportive longer term.

The two Australian refineries that remain are in a unique position with the support from the Fuel Security Services Payment, should the refiner margin environment deteriorate unexpectedly. We have continued to apply a disciplined focus on the fuels and infrastructure business in Australia, which has had a few challenging years due to COVID impacts on throughput in particular. You can see the marked improvement in the performance of F&I Australia as volumes have improved, with the normalization of quality premiums and freight rates following the disrupted market we saw last year. We are also delivering on the strategy to grow international earnings, with the step-out through the Z Energy acquisition, building on organic growth in trading and shipping. International earnings have now tripled in the past five years when comparing the first halves of 2019 and 2023.

This is really testament to the capability we have built to leverage the strength of our demand and infrastructure assets in Australia and now New Zealand, and to build on them in optimizing system flows and growing third-party customer volumes in the regions where we operate. As we look to the future, we're evolving the business to support our customers through the energy transition. As I mentioned earlier, the on-the-go public fast charging network rollouts are now progressing in both Australia and in New Zealand. We know that EV charging will also occur at third-party destinations, and we have established our first major agreement with Mirvac to provide fast charging at their shopping centers. We've also entered our first back-to-base charging services agreements with Aciano and Outbound in Australia and with Europcar in Australia and New Zealand.

We are making good progress on our own decarbonization objectives through projects to reduce emissions intensity in our own operations, with initiatives including the Australian Depot Fleet Replacement project and LED installation in retail. We'll now move on to slide 20. I think this is a really important slide in our pack. We have certainly built a more resilient business over the last few years by growing both convenience and international earnings. We are now over five years into the Ampol retail transformation, having transitioned to company operations from what was largely a franchise network, and rationalized site numbers to retain the most profitable and highest returning sites, as well as rebranding the entire network.

We have significantly improved our retail capability, which is reflected now in a strong track record of growing shop gross margin and earnings, and which leaves us very well positioned to continue to grow this part of our business. I talked earlier about the success of the Z acquisition, which provides further non-fuel earnings growth, as you can see in the chart. The management team at Z are doing a great job executing their own retail improvement strategy. The international growth strategy is another good story as we leverage the significant short we control in Australia and in New Zealand. The trading and shipping team continues to take advantage of organic growth opportunities across geographies, products, and customers.

This has been supported by the opening of the US trading office in Houston, which is improving crude sourcing capabilities and has facilitated the establishment of storage capacity and blending capabilities in the Asian and North American regions, improving both available margin but also the number of supply options we have available. Moving on to slide 21. We've provided the data on EV penetration through to June 2023. You can see the increase in EV adoption as supply chains have freed up and more affordable EV models are entering the market. Despite this, EVs still remain a very small proportion of the total fleet, and as our scenario analysis presented in the climate report showed, we expect fuel demand to be robust well into the 2030s.

The right-hand side shows some key statistics for our public, fast, and ultra-fast charging networks, which stand at 34 bays in Australia and 37 bays in New Zealand at 30 June. These numbers continue to increase further as the rollout gains momentum. It's very early days, but the stats are encouraging, both in average charge time and charge session size. You can see the dwell time is circa 25-30 minutes even for fast charges, and we continue to work on the convenience offering to benefit from the opportunity this presents. McKinsey is forecasting that as the EV percentage of total fleet increases, the demand for on-the-go public charging will increase to about 40% of charging sessions into the 2030s, as the take-up extends beyond the early adopters to those with less opportunity to charge at home.

We can see from international experience that fast charging infrastructure is lagging the uptake in EVs, which reflects many of the grid, real estate, and capability-related challenges in the build-out of this capacity. We also know that the uplift in shop sales from an EV customer looks favorable as that dwell time increases. This reinforces our belief that building out this capability, as we are doing, will generate attractive returns over time, with quality of network and convenience offer being critical success factors. I'll now talk to our key priorities for the rest of the year on slide 22. We are still to make our final investment decision on the Lytton Ultra-Low Sulphur Fuels project, but the CapEx is included in the guidance that's been provided today.

We have a clear organic growth strategy for the Australian Convenience Retail business, with a focus on developing premium highway sites and with a view to enhancing our network segmentation to refine the micro market offer across the network. There are limited inorganic options available in Australia, but we will explore them where they are value and earnings accretive and can deliver attractive returns. We are also conducting the QSR pilot with Hungry Jack's.

We'll report back on that with some details at the full year. Z will focus on delivering its near-term Convenience Retail growth targets and refining the segmentation of its offer between the premium Z brand and the lower-cost Caltex offer. We will continue to pursue our organic growth strategy in F&I International, building on the capabilities that we've developed and the strength of our combined demand and asset position across the region.

The progress of the EV fast charging networks will be a key focus over the next couple of years, and we will explore solutions for hard-to-abate sectors, with a focus on the potential for production of SAF and renewable diesel at Lytton. I'd now like to close out today with a view of the current trading conditions and macro outlook. On slide 24, we show the regional fuel demand picture baselined back to 2019. You can see the dramatic impact of COVID in early 2020, particularly in jet and petrol.

The recovery is largely complete, but we expect continued growth in jet fuel and petrol demand from increased mobility and the impact of net migration, which is now returning quite strongly. Diesel demand has remained relatively robust throughout, and this is a market where Ampol has a higher-than-industry market share due to our AmpolCard offer.

On slide 25, we show the historical and forecast, forecast position from FACTS Global Energy for global refining, measured as crude distillation unit capacity. I think the first thing to note is the adjusted vertical axis, which is presented to show with better clarity the changes in overall capacity. For the majority of the last decade, supply has been over 100 million barrels per day. As you can see, FACTS now forecasts supply to grow modestly through to 2030, but to be outpaced by demand growth, which is shown in the black line. Refinery additions have typically been slower to arrive than forecast due to project delays and reliability issues during ramp-up. While the near-term outlook shows a level of spare CDU capacity, it is important to consider the realization of this capacity.

Utilization rates have been impacted by unplanned outages as the whole sector has been running hard coming out of COVID in a bid to benefit from the higher margins. It's also important to note the fact that some of this capacity is focused on petrochemical feedstock and not transport fuels. Of course, the actions of China on exports will be another important factor, which impacts the regional balance for product markets. All that said, I think the key takeaway is production capacity relative to demand is expected to remain tight. Moving on to slide 26. This slide really demonstrates that we've had a strong start to the H2, which is very encouraging. LRM in July increased to $15.31 per barrel, which is well above historical levels. August has also seen a promising start with strong crack levels.

As I indicated earlier, in the short term, we need to consider China's export intentions. Announcement of the latest product export quota numbers was delayed, with domestic inventory levels in China, for gasoline in particular, at low levels. The Safeguard Mechanism has come into effect, with the refining baseline still to be determined.

However, indications that we have that our, our own decarbonization plans will put us in a good position for the early years. F&I Lytton should benefit from the ongoing recovery in fuel demand in Australia, providing the operating leverage missing for the COVID-impacted years. The B2B team have made some very good progress with contract wins and renewals and are making good gains in commercial share. Third-party retail exposed resellers will also benefit from the net migration that we're seeing. The MSO also came into effect from 1 July.

We are well positioned for the first year of the program and have commenced the fortnightly reporting regime. Convenience Retail has had a slightly softer start to the H2, as fuel margins came under pressure due to rising wholesale fuel price, prices, as you would expect. We expect immigration to support volumes and also continued strong shop performance. Ampol has made significant progress in recent years in developing its fuel and convenience offer, and as we enter the next phase of our strategy, we are on a much stronger footing. Importantly, as I mentioned earlier, clarity on MetroGo for Ampol means that we have greater flexibility on how we leverage our network in executing the next phase of our strategy.

The outlook for Z Energy is net positive, with increasing immigration post-COVID, helping to counter any potential impact of weaker economic conditions, the fuel excise in New Zealand was reinstated in July. To complete my comments on outlook, we expect CapEx to be skewed to the H2 and to be between AUD 400 million-AUD 450 million for the full year. That ends our presentation. Now, Greg Barnes and I will take your questions, and we also have Brent Merrick, Andrew Brewer, Kate Thomson, and Lindis online, and I may direct questions through to them. With that, we'll take our first question, please.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, if you do wish to ask a question, you can register by pressing star then one on your phone, and just star two to cancel. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before asking your question. First question comes from Michael Simotas at Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Michael Simotas
Managing Director, Jefferies

Good morning. Can we start on Convenience Retail, please? Quite a nice increase in shop margin. Can you give us some indication of how much of that was underlying improvement versus the mix shift away from tobacco? Given that increase, do you think you can continue to grow shop margins, or have you got closer to maxing that out?

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

Maybe I'll pick it up in the, in the first instance. What I would say, rather than sort of getting into the ins and outs of it, what I would say is tobacco's contribution to margin is about half what it is to revenue. You can see underlying, it's been a very strong improvement in the sale of those immediate consumption products, whether it's beverages or snacks or bakery. And coffee. They've been the, the three big drivers. Where we've seen genuine margin improvement, not just recovery of inflation. That flows through to average basket value, where we've done a very good job of sort of optimizing both product mix, but what's sold in a given transaction, including what might be given away under certain contractual arrangements with people like Uber.

They're really the three big drivers, but a big part of the contribution has been genuine margin increase in in-store, in those immediate consumption products, and obviously, the mix shift to tobacco is the other contribution.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Kate Thomson, do you want to build on that?

Kate Thomson
Executive General Manager, Ampol

Yeah. The other build on tobacco is that our average basket size has held up regardless of the decline in tobacco. Products that are traditionally attached to tobacco, such as milk impulse, are still performing quite strongly despite this impact. Whilst we see continued headwinds, we expect those products to still perform.

Michael Simotas
Managing Director, Jefferies

Thanks. Do you think you can continue to grow shop margin?

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

I think, Michael, we, we think that where we've got to today with Metro gives us a lot more flexibility, that enables us to pursue an even more segmented strategy in terms of our offer going forward. On the, on the premium end, in particular, we continue to see there's potential through the optimization work that has been a journey for us, but you can see coming through the result, despite tobacco, you know, we're, we're outrunning that. That's, that's down 19%. Yes, it's a lower margin category, but you can see the momentum in the balance of the basket that is coming through quite strongly, we see strategically plenty of potential to keep getting at further growth in that area.

Michael Simotas
Managing Director, Jefferies

Great. Following on from that, how should we think about cost outlook for Convenience Retail? I guess it's probably worth talking about MetroGo and the changes there. Underlying wages are obviously up, rents, you've called out electricity. Do you have any programs in place to try to offset some of that cost inflation?

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

I think the, the main thing, Michael, is it's just a, it's a, it's an ongoing process of continuous improvement. You know, if we talk about underlying performance, and next phase of strategy, I think a key component is the opportunity to flex and tier our offer, and continue to invest in, in premium fuels. From a, from a cost perspective, you're getting a good look this period with energy and marketing back in. That's not going to change. That's a, that's a good guide of what we look like going forward, and then the team just continue to get the basic right, which, which, which they've been able to do pretty consistently over the last few years.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Kate?

Kate Thomson
Executive General Manager, Ampol

We still have some opportunity to look at labor and how we do things differently in the way we operate. We've also got wastage opportunities, particularly in the premium sites as we transition out of MetroGo. Inventory is also an opportunity, as is our maintenance, our total spend. A lot of things that we're still going after to counteract that inflationary pressure.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

I think the, the, the change, the MetroGo outcome does position us again, Michael, to, you know, some costs were a bit of a challenge for us, on, on that offer. We've learned a lot. There is potential in, obviously, at the upper end of the network in what we do. We now have more flexibility in terms of how we go about it, and we now have the capability, in our view, to go about, delivering that, including on the cost front.

Michael Simotas
Managing Director, Jefferies

Thank you, and well done on the half.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Tom Allen at UBS. Please go ahead.

Tom Allen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Hey, good morning, Matt, Greg, and the broader team. With a strong interim dividend announced today, leverage below the bottom end of your target range, can you comment on how management and the board might weigh up investment in future growth, and where that growth might be focused, including where you see further consolidation opportunities, and that's compared to investing in additional shareholder returns via capital management?

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Tom. Look, as always, we'll be quite disciplined around where we are, where we look to grow. We can see opportunities within the business to continue to grow. Convenience Retail, on both sides of the Tasman, actually, we can see attractive opportunities to continue growing the international part of our business. We'll look, in addition to those organic plans, at inorganic options where they make sense. I think we've got a reasonable track record of delivering, of delivering returns when we have moved inorganically. It's a very disciplined process that we go through. We look at stuff, but we test ourselves always in terms of the level of value accretion and returns to shareholders.

We weigh it up against, against capital returns and, you know, special dividends, as we demonstrated at the full year last year, being our preferred mechanism there. That's, that's everything that we weigh up. We've got a range of good options, but I think, we'll continue to be disciplined, around how we, how we use the balance sheet. Greg?

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

Yeah, I, I think that's, that's the right call. You know, we've, we've said we target towards the bottom end of the range. I think that gives us flexibility, and you can see us actively doing that now. Our dividend today would, you know, take us back up somewhere at around 1.9 turns, and we'll just consistently look to do that.

Tom Allen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Thanks, Greg. Thanks, Matt. That makes sense. Can you please share some additional color on the CapEx outlook? Recognizing Ampol hasn't yet taken FID on the low sulphur upgrade, by the end of this year, what proportion of the total CapEx required to deliver the low sulphur upgrade and the new aromatics standard will be complete? Just keen to understand if there'll still be a big capital commitment for these projects still to deliver in FY24.

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

Yeah. The first thing I'd say is we guided for the year to somewhere around AUD 400-450 million of spend. If I were to be candid, I would say our track record of hitting those numbers, we tend to come in at the lower end. That is, in part, just the ability to move at the pace we want to because of either site constraints or labor. My hunches will be somewhere towards the lower end of that 400-450, but that spend we are looking to make, and it's just a question of whether it's this year, this year or slips into next. That'll be the first thing I'd make. Where is that spend going? Well, you touched on one of them.

I think the step up in the H2 is a combination of continuing to roll out our highway sites, the low sulphur project, as you touched on, and you can see we're making progress in eMobility. We had, at June 30, about 34 bays up and running. It's about 54 today, and we're in the middle of our federal and state government backed rollout. You'll see some step up there, and then the rest of it's, you know, the usual operational things we need to do.

You know, specifically on low sulphur fuels, I wouldn't want to, I wouldn't want to be too specific until we fully understand where the final sort of legislation and fuel specs land, but you have seen some guides out there in the past from others in the market of sort of a AUD 300 million spend on the program before aromatics. I think that's probably not a bad guide of what we've got to go. You know, somewhere in that sort of AUD 300-350 range would be indicative of where, what we would need to do over the next, 18, 2 years, say, to deliver an integrated project. So by that, I mean low sulphur fuels and aromatics.

We're doing an integrated project, and then that's why we've had to delay FID, is we needed to understand the final specs, funding and, you know, regulations, if you like, around the transition both to low sulphur and aromatics, which we expect to get clarity on very soon. In the interim, we're continuing to progress the project and the CapEx guidance I've given you for the year includes spend on that project.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Just to, just to build on that, Tom, the, those CapEx numbers are gross. Just a reminder that the government will contribute AUD 125 million for the low sulphur project, and, to be determined, through ongoing discussions, a contribution to the aromatics component.

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

That's important.

Tom Allen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Thanks, folks. That's clear.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Adam Martin at E&P Financial. Please go ahead.

Adam Martin
Executive Director, E&P Financial

Yeah, good morning. Look, your commercial business or F&I excluding Lytton, you know, obviously going really well, so annualizing over AUD 400 million. Haven't seen that since 2018. I suppose the question is, how sustainable do you think that is? Is there anyone else you want to call out in that business? Just a bit of color there, please.

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

Yeah. Look, we're really pleased with the business and how it's performing. Between Matt and I, we touched in the call on the capability build there, you know, both in Singapore and more recently in the US. We're very much encouraged by how it's performing. That'd be the first point I'd make. In terms of one-offs, you know, with the refinery outage, invariably trading and shipping and supply generally benefited from both the importation of more products to supplement that and also the export of some of the semi processed products. I'd put that in the realms of sort of AUD 15 million-AUD 20 million of one-off benefits.

Then just on translation and currency, there's a benefit of sort of in the 10-15 range flowing through that part of the business from currency benefits. I think the most important thing to, to draw on beyond that is, is we've really built momentum in that business, right? It will move around period to period, but I do, I do expect if you, if you look through sort of period-to-period results, you should see, you know, good improvement in that business over time. We think the Australian part of the business can keep pace with in, in inflation or sort of call it low to mid-single digits.

Then the international business, we'll be expecting sort of mid to high single digits over time, but it will, it will bounce around a little bit with market conditions. We have a natural offset with the refinery, which, which acts as a strong, I guess, mitigant, if you like, where, you know, where markets dislocate for a little bit, for example, and where in a situation like we are today, where we're probably more exposed to spot supply. We've been a beneficiary this period. In the previous reporting period, we were a beneficiary in the refinery as a result of that. We have that natural sort of shock absorber, which helps offset it.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

And I think, Adam, what you, what you see in that business is, and as we mentioned, in the presentation, the return of the return of scale, and the quality of the underlying asset position that we've got and customer position that we've got. I think you can see that, we've taken that into New Zealand now, and the, the combined position that we have, together with the capability build that has been in place in the international part of the business for a number of years now, we, we are in a very strong position to be able to, to take that forward.

I think that's really testament to a capability build that has occurred over many years now and is really coming to the fore after what's been a very choppy set of results for a whole range of factors when we look over the last few years.

Adam Martin
Executive Director, E&P Financial

Now, that makes sense. Just, just quickly on New Zealand, I mean, you, you flagged there, you've delivered the 60-80 synergies. Anything else to sort of think about the next 12 months or any other growth that we should be thinking about for that business? Obviously, you've timed that deal well, but just any more to think about there, please.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Yeah, I think, Look, the business is performing well. We've only owned it for 14 months. We're really pleased with how that's going, the integration of supply, and it really fits into that kind of, how do, how does that business help build our scale, and enable us to be even more competitive in the region, and in developing the international part of our business? Really happy with all of that. That's really been a significant part of our focus. I, I mentioned in the presentation, the, and you can see it on slide 20, I think, which is a, a, a nice slide and an important slide for us.

That's another, that's another significant convenience retail business within Z, and, you know, that, that business has got a strong momentum and track record, similar to what we've seen in Australia. We'd continue to see a refinement of the segmentation approach, as I mentioned, and continuing to look to grow that business. You know, a premium Z brand, a lower cost Caltex brand, in a move into automated, or unmanned, supply. They're already, you know, a few sites into that, but we can see some good potential in that area and leveraging some of the learnings that we've had out of Gull. I think there's some, there's some good potential there.

We're really happy with the quality of the, the team, and the assets that we've got, and I think the timing was good, as you mentioned, because we can see share growing. You know, we would've probably considered Z to be a circa 4 billion liter business in terms of total fuel volumes, but you can see, you know, 2.2 billion liters in the H1. You know, the, the share and the performance on the volume side is actually pretty encouraging for us.

Adam Martin
Executive Director, E&P Financial

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Dale Koenders from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Dale Koenders
Director of Equity Research, Barrenjoey

Morning, Matt and team. Just maybe more of a question for Greg. Just wanted to better understand what is the right level of gearing for your old leverage for the company going forward? I guess your comments are getting towards the bottom end of your range is barely, barely in the range. You've sat below that target leverage range of 2.0 to 2.5 times for the better part of 6 to 12 months. Is this a phase of being more conservative for energy transition or current CapEx or inorganic growth opportunities? How do you marry all of that together?

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

Yeah. I think sort of somewhere around the, the, the 2 turns is, is right. You know, we're, we're a good cash generative business, but we are also entering a period where we're probably investing a little bit more than average in, in capital expenditure. Things like low sulphur fuel, eMobility, some of the, the store rollouts, and highway sites we're pursuing in Convenience Retail. Nothing that hasn't been telegraphed before. I think, you know, the market's been a somewhat volatile market for the last 18 months.

We're just minded to be, have a slightly more conservative posture, that's both good from a resilience perspective, but also, I think opportunistic, gives us a position where we can be opportunistic if we do see opportunities to grow. You know, there's potential to grow in Convenience Retail, I think internationally, in an, in an organic way, organic way, which would, you know, be more of a storage and inventory type of play. And then, and, you know, that. Then, of course, future energy, we'll just get through the, this first phase of eMobility rollout, and the test-and-learn work we're, we're doing, and we'll, you know, we can have more to say on that at, at year-end, but that's an obvious source of growth over the longer term.

Dale Koenders
Director of Equity Research, Barrenjoey

If the way you've positioned it is that there's not really a lot more balance sheet capacity left, is any large scale M&A, is that gonna have to come with equity raising?

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

Oh, no, I, I wouldn't leap to that conclusion, and certainly we're not contemplating anything that requires an equity raising. Really, that's just about keeping a little bit of powder dry and continuing to leverage both ordinary dividends as a first port of call. Then, as I've said previously, I think special dividends are the next logical move, where we have surplus capacity as the most efficient way to get franking credits back. No, I wouldn't buy into any thinking that, one, that we're going to be acquisitive in the short term, or in particular, that it would require a capital raise of any sort. That's not, that's not in our thinking.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Put another way, Dale, we'll be happy to use our balance sheet, but we'll also be very disciplined, and ensure that, you know, as and when we do, the returns are right. Z Energy was a good example of that.

Dale Koenders
Director of Equity Research, Barrenjoey

Okay. Then just on the, the Woolworths deal that sort of ends the, the go relationship, bit of a frustrating 5 years, haven't really got a lot out, out of that partnership. Can you confirm, is there, are there any costs? What's the CapEx cost for rebranding? Is there any operating cost savings you'll make by terminating this? And is there any penalty payments you need to make?

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

Yeah. Pretty modest capital cost to rebrand 50 stores. There's nothing really to report there and no material P&L impact. What we were really driven by, as Matt touched on, was we're very returns-focused business. You know, it just wasn't delivering the returns, which is a combination of both the profit and the capital we're putting into it, 'cause it was a slightly higher labor cost model. You know, there's nothing really to report there. I think the real positive factor around this is the clarity it gives us around our network and what we can do with it. You know, it's obviously been comping against a very, much improved Foodary performance. You know, that combination, I think, is a real positive for the business going into the next phase.

Dale Koenders
Director of Equity Research, Barrenjoey

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from David Errington at Bank of America. Please go ahead.

David Errington
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Morning, Matt. Morning, Greg. Greg, can I follow on from that line of discussion? I've been a keen follower of your retail strategy for many years now, and, whilst I understand the tone of the word flexibility in giving you the opportunity to rebase and reposition, the other line of thinking there is that there's just been a clear now lack of strategy or direction. Look, one thing about retail, I don't want to make this too much of a statement, but I know a little bit about retail, that you've got to have a clear offer to your customers. It has to be clear, and it has to be consistent. It just seems to me that you just seem to be in pilot mode, as Dale mentioned, at least 5 years, probably 7 or 8.

When are you going to settle this down? I mean, Foodary, I thought you'd given up on Foodary, you know, and moving over to Woolworths MetroGo. There's StarMart. It just seems really complex, really complicated, and it just seems to be, I don't know where you're going with it, to be honest with you. Given the competition's now going pretty hard on, on the run, they've at least got a clear strategy. Whether it's a good one or not, we wait, we'll wait and see, but at least they've got one. You guys don't seem to have a strategy.

Now, I know that seems harsh, but maybe you can elaborate where this business is going to go for the next three to four years, because it just looks like it's, it's just drifting in the wind at the moment. To walk away from Woolies, that's, that's a disappointing day. Could you go and maybe, maybe your retail head, maybe she can talk a bit about it, because just a bit flat today on that, I must say.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Yeah, I'll, I'll start, David, and then I'll hand to Kate. Look, I think, I think where I would start is, you know, reflect on the journey that we've been on, which is, you know, five, five or six years ago, this was a franchise business. This was not a business that was branded Ampol and there was a Woolies arrangement in place and a contract in place that we've worked our way through. I think if you look at the underlying performance of the business, we've got a good track record of delivering strong returns out of that business. I think, you know, that is borne out over a number of consecutive halves now.

I think when you do look at the Woolies arrangement, we take a lot of learnings from it, but I, I don't expect, and it's never what we would do, given the disciplined approach that we take, is that you're going to go and roll out an offer that wasn't delivering the right level of returns. We have worked our way through that. We've done what we said that we would do, and we can see some real opportunity, but that was not the right model to make it work. What we do have is very strong foundations in terms of company operations capability, and we have good momentum within the business.

You can see now if the, if you're on the, on the highway out to Canberra, you can see some flagship sites at Pheasants Nest that have been a long time in the making, and I think demonstrate a very high quality offer within the premium end of our network. And we now have the flexibility to take the premium end of our network forward in a very clear way, and there's a very clear opportunity there for us, both in terms of upgrading the nature of the offer at that level, and also demonstrating the QSR potential, which we're quite excited about. On the M1s, in September, you'll be able to see Hungry Jack's operated by Ampol on one of our key sites, heading north out of Sydney.

That, that's what we mean in terms of having more flexibility. We did our best to make it work with Woolies. We'll keep the best parts of the Woolies arrangement, and the relationship's in good place, in a good place, but we can see that there is a good opportunity to get out in a more tiered Foodary offer. Foodary is now the offer across our entire network, but that consistency for the customer is now an opportunity that opens up for us as we move on beyond MetroGo. Kate, do you want to make some comments?

Kate Thomson
Executive General Manager, Ampol

Yeah. Our, our first priority is maintaining our current performance as we face into this inflationary environment, and then, as Matt said, performing against all of the tiers in our offer. We've got the, the highway strategy, which is exciting to see our Pheasants Nest sites. The M1 sites will be the next ones that we redevelop, followed quickly by, by the M4. We have a great opportunity in QSR with Hungry Jack's in particular, that we'll launch at the M1s, but then, we'll assess before we roll out further. There's the tiered opportunity across our premium, mainstream, and, and small format sites, where we clearly differentiate between those tiers to deliver consistency for, for the customer. A bit on the go.

David Errington
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you. Yeah, I mean, that said, Kate, it just needs consistency, I suppose. You need a run of consistency with a good long-term offer, at least you're on the way. Hopefully, you can see where I'm coming from as well. If I may ask a second question, it's on the F&I. It's a follow-up, I suppose, to the previous, I can't remember who asked it. Fran and I used to joke a little bit that with F&I in the last three years, that the dog always used to eat the homework somewhere along the line. This year, everything seems to be settled. Is all the...

Like, I remember there's a lot of coats here, like, and I'm not an oil person, I'm more a retail person, but there seems to be things that outside of your control are now back in your control, like, whether the, whether it be the moderation in oil markets post the invasion and the onerous contracts-

I'm looking at the SMO contract, arrangement. I'm hopeful that that's gonna be a big opportunity for you guys to get a competitive advantage. It just seems that that business is now more stable. Things are in your control now, whereas in that COVID period, there was just so much instability that it was just a real mess. Is that a, is that a good cop? Is that a good way of looking at it, so as that we can look forward with stability and that something won't come out of the woodwork and eat our homework? Are you in it, or is it always gonna be a business that we should always factor in a bit of volatility?

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

Yeah, maybe, David, I'll have a go. The first thing I'd say is, yes, we've taken a number of steps to address volatility that's emerged through COVID, which was really COVID, and then the Russia-Ukraine challenge, which was the complete dislocation of market balances that led to a lift in quality premiums, which is the price over and above the market, the quoted market price. Which was something that happened very quickly, really quite unique, and was a factor that we needed to respond to really quickly. Now, we were a beneficiary of some of those dislocations across the refinery, but from a F&I ex-refining perspective, you get caught in the short term to the extent you weren't termed on supply.

This time around, we've got the opposite happening, where markets have softened, we're competing against people that are termed, and we're in a strong position. We're also risk managing those factors better, whether it's tighter commercial arrangements that address it, or in terms of how we just price risk manage generally. That, that'd be the first point I'd make. The second point I would make is, this business, we expect, over time, will show consistent improvement. It will move around period to period, but that, that movement will be explainable and will also have its natural sort of offset and shock absorber, if you like, with the refinery. The combination of the value chain is valuable. The business is on a more stable footing for the reasons I've just said.

It will move still from period to period, as we were a beneficiary this period, but it will be explainable just as, as it has been, today. With the capability we have there internationally, in particular, we expect we can grow that business over time.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mark Wiseman at Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Mark Wiseman
Director of Equity Research, Macquarie Group

Yeah, hi, Matt, Greg, and team. Thanks for the update today, congratulations on the results. Firstly, I was just wondering if you could expand on slide 22, on the next stage of the Convenience Retail strategy. Could you maybe just outline, you know, how big is the opportunity from new to industry sites and QSR and the cost out from the micro market offer? Is this a small, gradual, incremental pivot, or is this gonna be a big program?

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Yeah, thanks, Mark. Look, we can see, we can see really good potential from the delivery of the strategy. The highway sites, where, you know, we see material opportunity, and obviously we're some way along that journey, with Pheasants Nest now open. You know, we talked, we talked in the presentations of the pipeline ahead. QSR, equally, you know, we've got, we've got sites that are very high quality at the premium end. We can see we've got a good partner. We're working closely with them and, you know, we'll be, we'll be up and running at one of our large sites in September, and, you know, subject to good results, we can see a meaningful opportunity in that space also. Then the segmentation of the network.

Look, we've now come to the end of the MetroGo arrangements. We've learned a lot, but the, the upper end of our network, we can see a real, a real opportunity in premium at, at the right investment point and at the right cost point. We think we've got a pretty good idea of what that looks like, and we'll have more to say, in time as we as we look to roll that out.

Operator

Thank you. Just due to time, we do ask that people limit questions to one per, one question per person. You may rejoin the queue, and we'll take follow-up questions, time permitting. Thank you. Your next question comes from Gordon Ramsay at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Gordon Ramsay
Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Oh, thank you very much for that introduction. Just earlier on, Matt, you said you're committed to releasing franking credits in the most efficient manner going forward, and Greg has said, you know, the goal is to do that through ordinary dividends or special dividends. Let's just look at a scenario. What if, at the end of the year, your adjusted net debt to EBITDA is well and truly below 2? Companies previously said when it's, you know, the guided range is 2-2.5, when it's below 2, you will undertake capital management.

What can we look forward to? Are we gonna be looking at a 70% payout ratio, or would you go beyond that level if the earning stability and the margin and the operating part of the business just looks so well? Can you just give us a feel for what it means in terms of capital management, if that scenario eventuates?

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

... Yeah. Hi, Gordon. It's Greg here. Look, I, I, I think year-end was a good steer of what we will do, and there's a graph in the, in the back of the presentation from memory that shows our, our track record of, of returning surplus capital when the opportunity arises. Reiterate a couple of points. Payout ratio: 50%-70%. Last, at year-end, we took the full year dividend after an interim of 60, we took the full year to 70% in a record year, and then we distributed another AUD 0.50 per share special. If we find ourselves in a circumstance where we're below our targeted leverage range, we will obviously assess growth options, outlook, and operational factors, as you've said.

If we find a situation where all those things are normal, then we would first go to the top of the range, as we've done this half, and then we would look to special dividends as the most efficient vehicle to get credits back. That's on the back of a change in legislation that's removed the ability to distribute franking credits through an off-market buyback, which is why we now talk to special dividends. Hopefully, that answers your question. Our, our view hasn't changed on that, and I think our track record is very strong in doing that in recent years, and most recently at year-end.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Scott Ryall at Rimor Equity Research. Please go ahead.

Scott Ryall
Principal and Head of Research, Rimor Equity Research

Hi, thank you very much. I just wanted to ask a related questions on electrification. You gave some really interesting statistics there on the early performance of your charging network. Thank you. I was wondering if you could comment on what proportion of the electricity that you've sold through your fast charging network has actually been generated by yourselves? Then the other part of that, if you could just comment on where you are with your fleet strategy, and being able to track charging at home for your fleet customers as well, please.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

I might pass that one to, to Brent.

Brent Merrick
Executive General Manager, Ampol

Thanks, Scott. We're pretty careful to make sure that we don't misrepresent that the energy we create on our sites may be consumed in the store as well. In our decarbonization strategy, we are rolling out solar panels on sites where we look to be effective in our capital deployment and considering charging, where appropriate, batteries, and solar panels. It's not a deliberate strategy to try and generate everything ourselves. It's more of a decarbonization strategy on generation. That's for that one. In terms of the second question around the fleet strategy, it's an important part of our business today, and it'll be an important part tomorrow.

You know, I think it's widely discussed about the importance of fleet in the early, early move, movers in energy transition. We see ourselves as quite a big transport energy supplier to businesses today. As businesses look to move ahead with the changing of their fleet, that fleet will continue to be an important part of that, that, that offer for us as well. Nothing I can refer to for you today.

You know, we are quite aware of the, the role it plays in the energy transition and, and the early, early parts of the transition in particular, and we're, we're mindful of that as we, as we build offers suitable, to really make life easier for, for business customers we have today, as they take on the challenge of, a mixed fleet into the future of, of, continuing to buy petrol, diesel and, and, and bring in new energy sources for their transportation in the future.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

I think the only things I would build on that to say, Scott, are some encouraging signs in terms of the offer that we're trialing with back to base and home charging solutions with Aciano and Outbound, as I mentioned in the call, in Australia and Europcar and Australia and New Zealand. We'll learn through those through the arrangements with those customers. Getting integration of electrons into our into our card will be another is another key step that we're pursuing.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Rob Koh at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Rob Koh
Managing Director and Lead Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Good morning, and congrats on the result. I kind of wanted to ask a question about the feedstock for the SAF, but given that I've only got, got the one question, I'm gonna ask a question about your effective tax rates with the Singapore entity and the ruling and the release of the provision. Should we be thinking that your effective tax rate is or the effective tax rate in the H1 is the rate going forward? How should we think about that one, please?

Greg Barnes
CFO, Ampol

It's Greg Barnes here. Thanks for the question. Look, the, the, the tax rate in the H1 is low because of the composition of earnings. Essentially, the refinery was down. We had 2, 2 months of pretty soft cracks, then we had a very strong performance out of Singapore and the U.S., and a full 6 months of Z- of Zed. We had a strange, an unusual composition of earnings, if you like.

I, I still think the best guide, and it is a guide, it'll move around period to period, but is somewhere in the order of 27% effective tax rate in normal conditions over time, is the best guide on a go-forward rate. Obviously, that's lower than Australia. It reflects a lift of New Zealand as a contributor, which is a sort of a 28% effective tax rate. Then, we have both Singapore earnings that pay Singapore tax and then top-up tax in Australia, as you noted. I think 27%, thereabouts, is the best guide, and, and the half was, was lower for the reasons I outlined.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude our question and answer session today. I would like to hand back to Matt Halliday for closing remarks.

Matt Halliday
Managing Director and CEO, Ampol

Thank you very much. Thanks for, thanks for attending. Thanks for your questions. Look, I think, it's a, it's a pretty strong result. It demonstrates growth across all parts of the business, ex refining, and demonstrates the increasing diversity and resilience that has been built up in the business in recent years. I think, the outlook, is one where, we've started the H2 strongly, and I think we've got good momentum in terms of delivering on our strategy. Thanks for your time. Look forward to talking to you soon.

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