Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Atlas Arteria 2023 results presentation. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. Due to legal restrictions, we are only able to communicate directly with eligible shareholders and investors with respect to their eligibility to invest in Atlas Arteria securities. Details in relation to the ownership restrictions that apply to persons in the United States and other U.S. persons that are not qualified purchasers are set out on our website under U.S. ownership restrictions. Please refrain from asking questions in relation to our securities if you do not meet these criteria, as we are legally restricted from answering those questions on this call.
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Graeme Bevans, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining Atlas Arteria's 2023 results call. Today I'm joined by our CFO, David Collins, and our investor relations team. David and I will spend around 40 minutes taking you through the presentation we have lodged with the ASX this morning and will then open the call for questions. Starting with the key highlights on slide 6. Pleasingly, our businesses delivered a very strong financial performance, which has enabled us to reaffirm distribution guidance of AUD 0.20 per security for the second half. This will translate to a distribution of AUD 0.40 per security for the year in line with guidance. I'm also delighted to be able to provide distribution guidance of AUD 0.40 per security for 2024. This is underpinned in part by the robust toll increases that you can see on the top of the slide.
Traffic at APRR hit record levels, predominantly driven by light vehicle demand, with weighted average traffic up 3.3%. Together with the positive impact of high inflation on tolls, this resulted in a 7.1% increase in proportionate EBITDA. We remain very focused on improving our safety performance. While overall we did better than in 2022, there's still work to be done to ensure that we are consistently meeting each of our safety metrics. In terms of challenges, the introduction of a new tax in France on companies operating long-distance transport infrastructure had a significant impact on our share price, and I'll touch on this in more detail later in the call. Moving on to some of our bigger strategic objectives. At Chicago Skyway, we delivered the 12-month business transition plan and completed the important work of aligning the business with our safety approach and reporting processes.
Pleasingly, Skyway also outperformed our acquisition business case. Moving to slide 7, I'll discuss the strategy in more detail. The acquisition of Chicago Skyway has set us up for the future, extending our average concession life, diversifying our cash flows, and positioning us to take advantage of organic growth opportunities across the rest of the business. With Chicago Skyway now an established part of the business, today we are announcing a refined and transparent strategy and approach to capital management. Our clear aim is to optimize value for security holders. We've refined our business strategy on three key areas. Firstly, we're focused on enhancing efficiency, lowering costs, and improving safety on our existing businesses across operations, maintenance, toll management, and revenue recovery. This includes unlocking value at Dulles Greenway by delivering on our two-pronged strategy.
Secondly, we intend to pursue growth opportunities that are directly related to or in proximity to our existing businesses, including the A412 project in France, and our focus is on realizing accretive returns from these projects. I want to be clear that acquisitions outside associated growth opportunities are not being considered, and we will provide appropriate notice to security holders if this position were to change. Lastly, we will maintain a strong balance sheet and look to optimize the capital structures at each of our businesses backed by investment-grade credit ratings. We're also looking at capital management options, including share buybacks and special dividends. We'll be seeking security holder approval at the 2024 AGM for changes to the Atlas constitution to enable such buybacks. Moving now to the financial result on slide 8.
Overall, the business performed very strongly with weighted average traffic, toll revenue, and EBITDA all above last year and 2019 pre-pandemic levels, driven by record APRR traffic. As I will come to, Skyway performed better than we had expected on acquisition during 2023. As I mentioned today, we're reaffirming distribution guidance of AUD 0.20 per security for the second half and providing guidance of AUD 0.40 per security for 2024. Both these distributions will be funded by operating business cash flows and supported by cash on hand, reflecting a portion of the $116 million of capital releases at the Atlas Arteria level from the refinancing activity completed at Skyway in October. As a reminder, this is a short-term strategy to support distributions, not a change of our usual approach of funding distributions from operating business cash flows.
Moving to slide 10, we show how we benefit from the current inflationary environment. Toll prices at APRR, ADELAC, and Warnow Tunnel are all directly linked to inflation. As a result, tolls were increased by around 3% at APRR in February and over 8% at Warnow Tunnel in November. These are pleasing figures, and the permanent uplift in tolls will benefit Atlas Arteria for years to come, more than offsetting the short-term impact of rising costs. As a reminder, at the Skyway, the tolling regime selects whichever macroeconomic indicator is higher on a two-year lookback basis. In 2024, tolls increased for light vehicles by 9.1% and for heavy vehicles by around 10%. In 2025, we estimate an increase of around 6%, also based on GDP. Combined with the toll increases achieved at Skyway in 2023, this would result in a 27% growth in tolls over a three-year period.
We also remain committed to improving our roads and maintaining a high-quality experience while delivering time savings and reliability for our customers. Moving to slide 11, and a quick reminder of the structural strength of our businesses. All of our businesses are underpinned by a high proportion of fixed-rate debt, with medium to long-term average debt maturities. Indeed, the fixed component of our debt ranges from 75%-100% at each of our businesses, providing significant protection from interest rate risk on the back of rising bond yields, a key theme during the past year. Secondly, our businesses have high EBITDA margins, reducing the impact of rising operating costs. Our highest-margin businesses are APRR and Chicago Skyway, with margins of around 86% and 85% respectively. This compares to 79% at Dulles Greenway and 69% at Warnow Tunnel.
Moving to slide 12, safety is core to everything that we do, and we are fully committed to building a strong safety culture, continuously improving performance and mitigating risk across all of our businesses. As I mentioned, while our safety performance in 2023 was a slight improvement on the prior year, there is still a lot of work to be done to ensure that we are consistently meeting all of our safety targets. Overall, at APRR, we're disappointed to have missed our target to keep the lost-time injury frequency rate at or less than 3, with a score of 3.36. We did, however, meet our target of 1 or less lost-time injuries at our smaller businesses and at the corporate level for a second consecutive year. We are taking some tangible steps to improve safety.
At APRR, a new safety plan has been launched and will run from 2024 to 2026. It is built on nine core areas that set behavior expectations for all employees to help protect them and our customers. APRR also undertook an outreach campaign visiting schools and community groups to educate local communities on safe driving practices. At Chicago Skyway, a priority during the year was aligning the business with Atlas Arteria's safety approach and reporting processes. A key part of this was the rolling out of our safety reporting software Asset Vision to improve safety performance monitoring for all incident types. Moving now to operational performance for the year on slide 14. At APRR, group traffic was 3.9% higher than the same period in 2022, a record result predominantly driven by robust light vehicle demand.
Stripping out the positive impacts of the A79 and the additional 17.5-kilometer stretch of the A6 north, traffic increased by around 1.5%. As you can see on the center chart, light vehicle traffic is closely correlated with French household consumption, which is expected to grow for the next four to five years. Unemployment also remains near its lowest level in 40 years, supporting household earnings. Together, these factors help support light vehicle demand. Heavy vehicle growth was more marginal, being closely correlated with Spanish and French trade with the rest of Europe, which was constrained by the relatively flat performance of the European economies. Reduced agricultural production due to the summer drought in Western Europe also softened traffic levels during the second half in heavy vehicles. We'll now move to slide 15 and provide an update on the APRR business.
In December, the French Parliament approved the finance law for 2024, which included a new tax from 1 January on companies operating long-distance transport infrastructure. This tax will represent 4.6% of revenues, exceeding EUR 120 million per legal entity, and is expected to apply to both APRR and AREA based on historical earnings. Its introduction severely impacted our security price. I want to make it very clear that we are pursuing our legal and contractual rights to the maximum extent, as we've always done in instances where the French government has sought to impose taxes specific to the motorway sector. Regarding the future regulation of the motorway sector after expiry of the current concession contracts, it's been acknowledged by the finance minister that the private concession model is the most effective way to operate French toll road networks.
One of the multiple options could be to have a regulatory system more akin to the airport's regulatory model and potentially shorter-duration concessions with review points every few years. The former Minister of Transport had intended to appoint a working group in early 2024 to discuss the future of toll road concession systems once the current contracts expire. However, following a government reshuffle in January, this was put on hold. The new Transport Minister, Patrice Vergriete, was appointed in early February, and we look forward to engaging with him on the future of toll road concession systems in France. Among the historical concession contracts, the first to expire is SANEF which will reach maturity at the end of 2031, close to five years ahead of the APRR and AREA concession maturities in November 2035 and September 2036 respectively. Moving to an update on the A412 project on slide 16.
This is a new 16-kilometer motorway between Thonon and Machilly that will reduce congestion and commuting time to and from Geneva along the southern shores of Lake Geneva. This month, a consortium formed by Eiffage and APRR was appointed for exclusive negotiations for the project. The concession is for 55 years and will consist of a two-lane dual-carriageway with free-flow tolling technology. It is expected to significantly improve road safety conditions in the area while delivering time savings for motorists. Environmental considerations are a key component of the successful bid case. Low-carbon construction methods, including the use of timber in bridges, poles, and free-flow gantries, will be utilized. We will provide further information on the project following signature of the concession, which is expected in the second half. Moving now to Chicago Skyway on slide 17.
Traffic was higher than our acquisition business case, primarily because the planned roadworks on the ITR paused over the summer period. This is one of the busiest traffic periods because people travel between the city and beach resorts on the eastern shores of Lake Michigan. Combined growth in tolls over 2023 and 2024 of 21% were also above our acquisition assumption of 18%. This is a remarkable statistic and is certainly the first infrastructure business of my career where I've seen toll growth of such magnitude realized over a two-year period. As a result, toll revenue grew 2.7% on 2022 despite a 7.2% decline in traffic because of the roadworks on the ITR. Following completion of the ITR roadworks in late 2023, the traffic recovery has been slowed by the increase in toll prices and periods of heavy snow in January.
Moving now to slide 18, we can see the combination of inelastic demand and a favorable tolling framework delivering strong revenue growth at Chicago Skyway. Despite traffic falling gradually since 2014, toll revenue has increased by around 53%, a CAGR of 4.9%. The Skyway provides a strong value proposition for users through reliable time savings, convenience, and safety, meaning customer demand is relatively inelastic to toll price increases. This drives real increases in revenues when real toll prices rise. While around 90% of traffic is light vehicles, heavy vehicles account for around 40% of toll revenues. This is because heavy vehicles' tolls, on average, are close to six times higher. Around 80% of revenues are generated during the peak times of 4:00 A.M. to 8:00 P.M., reflecting the lower toll price elasticity of heavy vehicles during peak periods.
A large proportion of light vehicle customers are using the Skyway for leisure purposes, with traffic typically higher on weekends and more sensitive to real toll price increases. A key highlight of the past year was the successful completion of the 12-month transition plan. One of our key achievements was commencing the change to a proactive, whole-of-life approach to maintenance. This included launching a new asset management program and commencing the process of establishing the digital twin. The digital twin will help us monitor the condition of the roads and bridges and assist in the planning for appropriate proactive maintenance works. Another key focus during the year was the refinancing of the maturing debt at Chicago Skyway, along with a modest regearing to release capital while maintaining a BBB credit rating. David will discuss this in more detail shortly.
We also completed an operational review and implemented a range of improvements. We've upgraded the capability in the team, including the hiring of a new CFO and COO. Finally, we aligned the business with Atlas Arteria's approach to safety, sustainability, and emissions reporting. Moving now to slide 20, we continue to see a gradual return to office-based work in Northern Virginia, meaning that traffic at Dulles Greenway was up 6.4% compared with 2022, although still below 2019 levels. Revenue increased by 8.5% ahead of traffic due to the increase in higher-priced peak traffic and violation revenue collection. Importantly, fundamentals for the region remain strong, with high population growth, stable employment level, and robust household earnings. Moving to slide 21, we continue to pursue a two-pronged strategy to unlock value and create a more sustainable long-term pathway for the Greenway.
Last week, important progress was made in the Virginia legislature, where the Virginia House of Delegates passed a budget that included language authorizing VDOT to negotiate and execute a new concession agreement with the Greenway. The House and Senate are now working on a compromise budget, which is expected to be voted on in March. If the vote is successful, it will start the process for the Greenway to eventually operate under the Public-Private Transportation Act and begin the transition to distance-based tolling, providing lower tolls for our customers. At the same time, we continue to progress our rate case application, seeking approval for an increase in the maximum level of tolls from the SCC. The rate case hearings commenced on 28 February in the U.S., and based on past rate case decisions, we expect an outcome in the second half.
I would also like to take a moment to highlight the strong, on-the-ground capability that we possess in Virginia. We have an experienced and passionate team with a strong track record of managing infrastructure assets. A key objective for 2024 is to bolster our on-the-ground capability with the search for a group executive for North America currently underway. Moving to Warnow Tunnel on slide 22, roadworks on the competing route along Am Strande amplified the traffic time savings offered by the Warnow Tunnel. As a result, traffic was up 3.1% versus 2022. Rostock is a very old city, and so the urban infrastructure is subject to frequent restorative works and infrastructure upgrades. You can see the travel time savings on the chart in the right-hand side of the slide. Turning to slide 23 and the important work we've been doing on safety and sustainability.
I've already touched on some of our achievements here, but we'll note that we have maintained our 40-40-20 gender balance across boards within senior executive roles and across all Atlas Arteria employees. On the environmental stewardship front, we're very focused on achieving our Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. To date, our work is focused on renewable electricity and renewable energy certificate purchases and the ongoing electrification of the light vehicle fleet at APRR. The total number of electric vehicles at APRR increased to 322 during the year, equating to just over 30% of the APRR light vehicle fleet. The aim is to electrify 75% of the fleet by 2025. We're also, in 2024, introducing heavy vehicle truck recharging on the A6 between Lyon and Paris in partnership with Engie.
In 2023, we also took the important step of recalculating our baseline 2019 emissions assessment to include Chicago Skyway. We'll provide more details in our 2023 sustainability report, which will be released in early April. I will now hand over to David, who will take you through the financial performance for the year.
Thank you, Graeme. I'm very pleased to report Atlas Arteria's 2023 results today. The Atlas Arteria income statement is provided on slide 25, where you can see our financial performance has improved compared to 2022. The primary driver is the robust performance of APRR, which you can see come through in the share of net profits of equity accounted investments line and the continued improved performance at Dulles Greenway. I would also highlight the 14% increase in toll revenue.
This was largely driven by a higher peak traffic period at Dulles Greenway, as well as a weakening of the Australian dollar against the US dollar and euro. The 11% increase in business operations expenses reflects the reduction in the maintenance provisions at Dulles Greenway and Warnow Tunnel. The 11% increase in corporate costs was in line with expectations and reflects additional labor costs because of inflationary impacts, as well as prior-year labor costs being capitalized as Skyway acquisition costs. More information on corporate costs can be found in the Appendix A section of this presentation. As with APRR, Chicago Skyway is included in the share of net profits of equity accounted investments line.
The AUD 326 million of net profits of equity accounted investments for the year reflects the strong performance of APRR and the inclusion of the A79, with a share of equity accounted profits for APRR of AUD 370.2 million offset by a AUD 44.6 million accounting loss at the Skyway. At the Atlas Arteria level, the Skyway loss was partially offset by the interest income on the CCPI shareholder loans of AUD 18 million, which you can see on a separate line. The accounting loss also reflects the non-cash amortization of the tolling concession and fair value adjustments on the debt, consistent with our acquisition business case. This is typical of an infrastructure asset where there is a large depreciation and interest cost upfront while the revenue base grows over time.
The increase in the other finance income line is due to the increased interest income from higher interest rates on a larger cash deposit. Finally, the 17% increase in finance costs reflects the weakening of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Overall, we are very pleased with this strong financial performance for the year. Now we turn to our cash flow waterfall on slide 26, which outlines how we derive our distributions. The consolidated APRR profit for the first half of 2023 was EUR 568 million, and starting on the left-hand side, Atlas Arteria's pro forma share of this was EUR 177 million. Our share of the APRR company net profit after tax, which drives the size of distributions, was EUR 155 million. The difference between the EUR 177 million and the EUR 155 million is consolidation and IFRS adjustments.
If you then account for the financing costs associated with the debt facility at Financière Eiffarie, the MAF taxes and administration costs, you are left with the EUR 134 million, which Atlas Arteria received in September. If you convert this, you get AUD 224 million in distributions. We received distributions from Warnow Tunnel and Chicago Skyway, totaling AUD 24 million during the period. We can also see the impact of the Chicago Skyway refinancing proceeds on our cash flow. On the foreign exchange losses, the majority of this relates to the foreign exchange hedge that we put in place for the APRR distribution received in September. The hedge was put in place at a specific foreign exchange rate, and then the Australian dollar depreciated further up to the point the APRR distribution was received, resulting in a loss. We also paid our corporate costs and other one-off expenditure items.
This gets us to the AUD 381 million net corporate cash flow. We had AUD 105 million cash on the balance sheet on 30 June, plus the AUD 381 million of corporate cash flows during the period. Less the distribution we paid out in September, we closed 31 December with a cash balance of AUD 196 million. Let's turn to slide 27 to look at APRR, the most significant contributor to our performance. APRR consolidated net profit for the year was close to 6% above last year. I'll step through some of the drivers of this performance. Operating revenue increased with the uplift in traffic and toll increases from 1 February 2023.
Operating expenses increased due to the inclusion of costs associated with the A79, higher costs related to the full business, and higher operational taxes reflecting an increase in TAT due to higher traffic and rate escalation, partially offset by a reduction in the CET rate. The increase in depreciation and amortization is due to the completion of major capital expenditure works on the network and the inclusion of the A79. We have also included in the table the bridge from APRR consolidated impact to the APRR company impact. As we just saw on the cash flow waterfall, the company impact drives the distribution paid from APRR. The APRR net consolidated adjustments mostly consist of intercompany loan arrangements between APRR and AREA Participation, which expired at the end of 2023.
The intercompany loan constrained distributions by around EUR 100 million in 2023, and from H1 2024 will increase the APRR company dividend based on period earned. The decrease in the consolidation adjustments was mainly IFRS accounting differences relating to the maintenance provision. Under the APRR standalone accounts, which are calculated under French GAAP, the maintenance provision has decreased in line with the reduction of the TP09 construction index. The maintenance provision is calculated differently under the APRR consolidated accounts, which are calculated under IFRS. Under IFRS, they take a longer-term approach where provisions are calculated over the remaining life of the asset. Here, the provision and other line has increased versus last year, primarily because of a one-off adjustment to the financial discount rate used to calculate the maintenance provision.
For more information on the composition of the various costs and tax line items for APRR, please refer to our investor reference pack, which was also released to the ASX this morning. On slide 28, we have the CAPEX program for APRR. Spend across the year was approximately EUR 330 million. CAPEX for 2024 until 2028 is expected to be around EUR 300-350 million per annum. This is lower than the previous guidance, reflecting the deferral of non-mandatory CAPEX to mitigate the financial impact of the new tax on operators of long-distance transport infrastructure. From 2029, CAPEX is expected to revert to the average of around EUR 300 million per annum. Moving now to slide 29. APRR is rated A by Fitch Ratings and A- by S&P. Total debt outstanding currently sits at EUR 9.1 billion at 31 December, including EUR 1 billion at Financière Eiffarie.
Liquidity also remains strong at EUR 3.4 billion, including EUR 1.4 billion of cash and a EUR 2 billion undrawn revolving credit facility. APRR has significant balance sheet capacity, with net debt to EBITDA sitting at 3.0 times versus the default covenant of 7.0 times. EUR 635 million of debt will mature in 2024, of which EUR 500 million relates to fixed coupon bonds. There is EUR 50 million of short-term commercial paper maturing, noting that APRR has EUR 1.4 billion of cash providing a natural hedge. It is also worth highlighting that APRR will pay EUR 80 million of scheduled amortization at Financière Eiffarie, which will impact distributions paid to Atlas Arteria. EUR 5 million of fixed-rate CNA debt will also be paid. Turning now to slide 30 and Chicago Skyway.
Graeme has touched on the fact that the increase in revenue of 2.7% for the year, despite lower traffic, was driven by toll increases implemented in January 2023. Operating expenses increased due to increased spending on tolling systems, additional operating and maintenance expenses, and higher insurance premiums. As flagged, capital expenditure increased in line with the Skyway transition plan. Spend during the year was around $16 million. Capital expenditure in 2024 is expected to be around $11 million. As at 31 December, the Skyway had $1.4 billion in total debt, of which 87% is fixed. The Skyway's debt service coverage ratio sits at 1.54 times, within Atlas Arteria's target range of 1.4-1.6 times. It also has a robust BBB credit rating from S&P.
As Graeme mentioned earlier, a key focus during 2023 was the refinancing of maturing debt at Chicago Skyway, along with the regearing to enable capital releases, which will be used to smooth distributions in the short term. In October, a notes issuance for $155 million was undertaken, enabling capital releases of around $116 million at the Atlas Arteria level. The new and existing bonds were rated BBB stable by S&P. Looking ahead to 2024, a second tranche of refinancing activities will be completed in the second half, with $115 million of notes up for maturity in July. Moving now to slide 31 and Dulles Greenway. Revenue increased by 7.4% compared to 2022 due to growth in higher-priced peak traffic. Expenses increased by 13.7% as a result of the additional costs associated with the SCC rate case application, as well as costs associated with the new violation enforcement system.
The Greenway has $204 million of cash available across restricted and unrestricted reserve accounts at 31 December. These accounts include locked cash due to Dulles Greenway not passing its one or three-year lockup tests. Turning now to slide 32, we see the results for Warnow Tunnel. Warnow benefited from toll increases and robust traffic during the period, with traffic increasing 3.1% and revenue increasing 9.8%. Expenses increased 10.4% due to additional personnel costs reflecting inflationary impacts. Warnow Tunnel paid a distribution of EUR 3.5 million to Atlas Arteria in February 2024, which will contribute to the distribution to security holders. Moving lastly to capital management on slide 33, we're focused on three key principles. Firstly, growing free cash flow. Secondly, appropriate gearing across the portfolio. And thirdly, funding to support strategic initiatives.
Starting with the first bucket, we are focused on strategies to deliver growth in free cash flows from each of our operating businesses. A reminder that our usual practice of funding distributions from operating cash flows is unchanged. The $116 million of capital releases at the Atlas Arteria level will be used to smooth distributions in the short term. We will also look to mitigate the impact of the new French tax on distributions. Moving to the second and third buckets, we will look to optimize the capital structure at each of our businesses backed by an investment-grade credit rating. We also have balance sheet optionality at APRR and through our undrawn corporate working capital facility. We will also evaluate capital management options, with work underway to consider the most effective use of future capital releases from Chicago Skyway to maximize security returns. I'll now hand back to Graeme.
Thank you, David. Turning to slide 35, I'd like to leave you with a reminder of what investors are buying when they invest in Atlas Arteria. We're a mature, established global toll roads business. We have high-quality, cash-generative businesses of scale that are geographically diverse, and a business that is positively leveraged to inflation but with limited floating-rate debt exposure. Finally, an attractive distribution yield. In summary, I'm pleased to say that the outlook for Atlas Arteria is very positive. Our balance sheet capacity is very strong, and we continue to deliver strong financial results. We're positively leveraged to inflation, which has driven significant toll increases. On the back of record APRR traffic, increases in proportionate toll revenue and EBITDA. At Chicago Skyway, the 12-month transition plan is complete, and the business has outperformed our acquisition case.
We've also refined our business strategy to be clearer and more transparent to our investors. At APRR, we're continuing to pursue and progress growth opportunities, including the A412 Thonon-Machilly project, which would see potential expansion of the network. And at Dulles Greenway, we continue to pursue a parallel strategy to unlock sustainable cash flows, including legislation to facilitate the implementation of distance-based tolling. We've been able to provide distribution guidance of AUD 0.40 per security for 2024, and we'll also continue to evaluate options to return more capital to security holders, including through share buybacks for which we have a preference in the medium term. I would like to thank our security holders and our customers for your continued support, as well as the team at Atlas Arteria for their hard work. With that, I'd like to hand back to the operator for questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. In the interest of time, if you could please limit your question to one and then rejoin the queue if you have any further questions. Your first question comes from Rob Koh with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Oh, good morning. Thank you very much for the presentation. This is exactly the kind of thing we need at this stage of the reporting season, easy to understand and clear. I guess I would like to ask a question about any impact on the French farmer blockades this quarter. But in the interest of one question to start with, can I just double-check the understanding of the free cash flow per share metric in the new LTI structure? Could you just maybe clarify what is the base for that? Is that the AUD 609 2023 free cash flow?
Yes, Rob, that's correct.
Great. Thank you so much.
The final investor reference pack.
I'm sure others will ask the question in the context of French farmers. Obviously, the strikes between the 27th and 3rd of February resulted in a decrease in traffic of 4.6% over January versus January 2023. We estimate that the traffic in February will be circa 2% lower than February 2023. There's two impacts to that. One is snowfall, and the other is the farmer strike, which also affected Paris with the president attending the big agricultural exhibition in February.
Your next question comes from Owen Birrell with RBC. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. I just want to clarify some of the wording around your distribution guidance for calendar 2024, where you mentioned you're distributing AUD 0.40 per share, including AUD 0.07-AUD 0.08 per share of cash on hand. So that sort of implies that the underlying cash from operations is only required to fund AUD 0.32-AUD 0.33 per share. So just wondering, should we read into that that you expect the underlying cash flows to step down year on year into FY 2024, or that you will end up with surplus cash at the end of the year from those operating cash flows that you will carry forward into calendar 2025?
Sure, Owen. Thank you. It's David. So there's a couple of things. Yes, so AUD 0.07-AUD 0.08 in 2024 is the level of support from our cash reserves to support the AUD 0.40. In terms of impacts on underlying cash flows for 2024, of course, we've got the impact of the TILD or the new infrastructure tax in France. We've got the impact of the step-up in amortization on the Financière Eiffarie loan also, which will impact 2024. So yes, your math is right in terms of AUD 0.07-AUD 0.08 support for cash for 2024.
Does that mean if the operating performance is better, that there's upside risk to that distribution outlook and you'll hold to the AUD 0.07-AUD 0.08 per share? Or if the operations are better, does that mean the AUD 0.07-AUD 0.08 per share comes down?
The latter, Owen, would be our likely response.
Okay. One final question. Can you give us a sense of what effects you're assuming? Because I noticed you did have a low Aussie dollar tailwind in this current year. Is what you're assuming for next year flat, or are you assuming a reversion?
Yeah, Owen. So what I could say, just as a broad statement, as you'd understand, I don't want to give a specific EBITDA forecast. We expect a broadly stable outlook. So we're not assuming significant changes looking forward from where we are.
Understood. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Andre Fromyhr with UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. I was wondering if you could share a bit more color on the updates to the APRR CapEx program. I think you mentioned that there would be some deferrals of the non-committed stuff. Are there impacts to your traffic and margin as a result of that? And then I see the longer-term run rate has been increased, but how much of that is explained by the sort of real guidance that one year later you've got some escalation built into that?
Yep, sure. Andre, thanks for the question. You're right. We have adjusted the shorter-term CAPEX guidance for APRR down through deferring non-essential CAPEX. This is one of the responses to the introduction of the new tax that APRR and ourselves are doing everything that we can to mitigate that impact. In the longer term, you're right, the guidance reverts closer to where the average has been previously in the late 2020s. So over the life of the concession, the outcome is similar. But we do have savings in the shorter term.
Okay. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Nathan Lead with Morgans. Please go ahead. Nathan, you're live. Your line might be on mute.
Thank you for that. Thanks, guys, for your presentations this morning. You referenced the potential for buybacks. Just wondering where the capital is coming from for that, if you're having to use cash to support the distribution for FY2024.
Yeah, Nathan, it's not immediate. But basically, what we want to make clear is that future regearings, which are likely to occur predominantly at Chicago Skyway, will be utilized or one of our options for utilization of that regearing would be to fund share buybacks as opposed to inflating distributions.
Okay. And we can expect another one of those capital releases to come through with the Chicago Skyway's second half 2024 refinancing activities?
I don't believe so.
Okay. So we're kind of done with the capital releases from Chicago Skyway for at least in the short term?
We're uncertain of that. We'll obviously look at the market. In terms of share buybacks, I wouldn't expect anything to come from share buybacks in the near term. The next major regearing opportunity would be in 2026 or later.
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Ian Myles with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi. Just a small one initially. There's a EUR 32 million other cost in APRR, which was below the EBITDA line. I was just wondering if you could explain what that cost actually is.
Yeah, sure, Ian. It's a one-off adjustment to the discount rate that APRR used to calculate the maintenance provision under IFRS. They've made an adjustment this year to reduce the discount rate that is used to calculate the provision and therefore the impact on the P&L. So what that's meant is that there's been a lift in the cost for the year to readjust the provision level to the new discount rate. So it's a one-off impact, which is why we've separated it. And the other thing I'd say, Ian, is that then in terms of reconciling to the company-level impact, it's backed out because it's not a French GAAP impact. It's just IFRS.
Okay. I understand that. Also on the tax side of it, in the past, you've talked about it, but I misinterpreted it, that you weren't actually paying the TILD tax, which that's $17 or $18 million contribution. I was wondering, how long do you not pay that for, and when do you consider backing it out of your accounts where you've taken the expense already?
Yeah, look, our expectation, as you've seen over many years, Ian, is that these tax grabs by the French government usually end up in some form of negotiation. And so the context from our point of view is until we end up in that negotiation, we'll be litigating very hard this year. And we'll expect to eventually get to the table, and keeping that on the table in terms of provisioning is an appropriately conservative way to approach it so that it's a card we can deal with as part of that negotiation.
Okay. That makes sense.
Your next question comes from Cameron McDonald with the E&P. Please go ahead.
I just want to hone back in on some of the comments around capital management and the distribution. So I'm right in saying that there's a EUR 100 million capital release from APRR, but that's going to be absorbed. That's the first issue. The second issue is with that additional French tax implication, does that mean that we should be thinking that the AUD 0.40 or growth on the AUD 0.40, despite the inflation-linked tolling, is basically going to delay growth in the distribution even further than we had previously expected? And sort of just lastly, how are you thinking about reserving capital against the buyback versus those capital releases for the potential need for capital to rebid for APRR through the retendering process?
Yeah. So there's quite a bit in your question. I'll deal with some of it, and then David will come back on the other. I think everyone understands that the French tax has a significant impost on our earnings per security. We will be in litigation. We expect to file litigation very shortly to the Constitutional Council. And that litigation, we expect to have an outcome before the end of FY24. There's a requirement for that to be resolved within three months by the administrative court and then the constitutional court. So hence, we're not moving from our current distribution perspective. Beyond that, there would be subsequent litigation on a commercial point if we were to fail in the first litigation, which we're also preparing for. So we're moving into a full court press on litigation on this, and it's premature to adjust our view on that.
With that, I'll hand to David for the other component.
Thanks, Graeme. So Cameron, thanks for the initial parts of your question. And just yes, you had the comment you wrote in terms of 2024 impact on cash flows. So firstly, the intercompany loan arrangements between APRR and AREA finish at the end of 2023, so there's a positive impact in 2024. It's about EUR 100 million at APRR level. And then mostly offsetting that is the step-up in amortization of the Financière Eiffarie loan to about EUR 80 million. In terms of the French tax impact, Graeme has spoken to that. That does impact cash flows at APRR level in 2024. It's paid every four months, and there are three installments that will be paid in 2024.
However, notwithstanding that, as we referenced earlier in the call, we have set a target for free cash flow per security growth of 5.5% CAGR over the next four years through until 2027, with the base being 2023 actuals. So while the tax does impact us, our underlying free cash flows, we do expect to grow over the next four years at 5.5% CAGR.
Sorry.
Your next question comes from Reinhardt van der Walt with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good morning, folks. Thanks for taking my question. Could I just get a reminder on the A412? What kind of capital investment are you expecting in that project and how you're planning on funding your equity contribution?
Yeah. So we're unable to explain the quantum. It's now in an exclusive negotiation, so we're unable to talk to the volumes. We have spoken on previous calls in really broad brush context, and we will disclose that at the end of when we sign the contract. In terms of funding source, there is significant free cash flow generation below the net profit line, which is able to be utilized to fund that project or borrowing capacity, some combination thereof, on the APRR balance sheet. So it will not require a contribution of equity from the shareholders in Financière Eiffarie. So it's much the same as the A79 was funded internally.
Your next question comes from Anthony Moulder with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning, all. Just if I can follow on that distribution growth comment about the 5.5% over four years to 2027, is the expectation within that that you wipe this French tax or that your compensation for this French tax is an extension of the concession in France, please?
We don't have built into that CAGR an assumption of compensation. But as Graeme mentioned earlier on, we are on a full court press in defending our legal and contractual rights on the tax, but we're not assuming a level of compensation.
Right. So this is on the basis that the French tax continues through to potentially the end of the concession?
Yes.
Correct.
Right. Thank you.
Next question is a follow-up question from Rob Koh. Please go ahead.
G'day, guys. Just again on the 5.5% CAGR, I guess, are there any abilities to adjust up and down in that? And I guess it's a per-share or per-security measure. So I guess what I mean by that is if the growth isn't linear because of lumpy capital items, do we have to do kind of a goal seek to get to the 5.5, or should we be more just thinking 5.5% steady?
The 5.5 is set on a steady state case. It is per security, as you say. Our calculations assume consistent share capital and securities on hand with what we have at present. It's a BAU calculation with our forecast free cash flows and our existing number of shares on issue.
It's a target.
Great.
To be clear, it's full.
Understood.
It is a CAGR, so there will be deltas year to year in unexpected performance.
Okay. That's great. I really appreciate that. Thank you.
Your next question was a follow-up question from Andre Fromyhr . Please go ahead.
Thank you. I was just going to follow up on some of your comments from the call around the outlook for future concessions in France. Can you talk a bit more about your understanding of the proposed working group on the future of French toll roads? Is there a mandate that's already been put in place as to what the purpose of that group would be? And is your expectation that it would include representatives from existing concession holders like APRR?
Yeah. Look, Andre, the purpose of it is to look at the options for the future. It will have broad representation. We do expect that APRR and other parties will be part of it. At the same time, the Senate is interviewing the CEOs and chairmen of the roads groups. Vinci, I think, appeared before a Senate committee recently. Philippe will be appearing mid-March before a follow-up committee. So one of the things that that committee is also looking at is the same thing. With the change in Minister for Transport, we have a continuing Chief of Staff, which is very helpful. But we have an incoming Transport Minister who doesn't have great depth in transport, so he's coming up to speed on these things. So we're unable to advise where it's going to go to other than we expect it would be taken on board.
With a continuing Chief of Staff, then hopefully, we'll get back on track fairly quickly in 2024.
Your next follow-up question comes from Ian Myles. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Just on the Greenway, you talk about the budget amendment in the House. Can you explain what happened to that same amendment in the Senate, and what sort of confidence do you have that the Senate won't, again, strike that amendment out?
It's Virginia politics, so we can't guarantee anything. What we do know is that the budget now gets dealt with by a committee of six or eight people, three reps from the House, three reps or so from three or four reps from the Senate. They work through the amendments. What the chairman of the Senate did was removed anything that related to Northern Virginia that was in the budget, including the Senate amendment in relation to Dulles Greenway. She inserted a range of budget beneficial components that related to Virginia Beach, which is the region she comes from. So what we'll see is a negotiation among those parties over coming weeks. We're obviously staying very close to all of the members of that committee and explaining and encouraging participation. Senator Boysko, who put that amendment through, is a close colleague of the chairman.
We would hope that it gets reinstated as part of the negotiation. But it's sort of a tit-for-tat sort of game going to happen behind closed doors. Assuming it remains in the budget, the important thing to understand is it then comes back to the floor of both houses for a yes/no vote. So it's not something that gets debated and renegotiated on the floor, which is one of the reasons we've chosen this route. And so it will be a yes/no vote when it comes back. The aim of both the House and the Senate is to wrap up by mid-March. So 9th of March is the target date to have the budget back. Unlike last year, where the budget was an amending budget, the budget is set in Virginia for two years; this is a budget that replaces an expiring budget on 30 June.
So without a budget approved by 1st of July, government in Virginia will shut down. So there's a lot more pressure on getting this budget through than there was last year.
Okay. Look, that's great. And just as a broader thing, you talked about your capital management strategy, and people have talked about buybacks. But you sort of talk about roads, which sort of are nearby. Is that really central around France, or would someone like an ITR be actually within the remit of what you'd consider?
Well, it is an adjoining road, but it's a little bit big for us to swallow.
Well, no. I'm just checking. That's all. Okay. Thank you.
We have come to the end of our Q&A session, and I'll hand it back to Mr. Bevans for closing remarks.
Well, thank you, everyone. We really appreciate your participation in the call today. If you do have any further questions, please reach out to the Investor Relations team. We'll be more than pleased to assist you. Thank you, and good day.
It does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.