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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Oct 20, 2022

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Redbubble Limited trading update. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Virginia Spring, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Virginia Spring
VP of Investor Relations, Redbubble

Good morning, everyone, and welcome here in Australia. Good afternoon and evening for our northern hemisphere investors. My name is Virginia Spring. I'm responsible for investor relations at Redbubble. Welcome to this investor call for our first quarter trading update for financial year 23. With me today, I have Redbubble CEO, Michael Ilczynski, and CFO, Emma Clark. The key information for today's update is contained in the ASX announcement released to the market this morning. Please note that the first quarter financial results for FY 23 and any strategic and operational metrics are from internal management reports and they have not been subject to audit review. Michael will speak shortly, and we will then open up the lines for questions at the conclusion of this presentation with Mike and Emma. This session is also being recorded.

Before we start, I would like to call your attention to the Safe Harbor statement regarding forward-looking information in our ASX release. That Safe Harbor statement also applies to this investor call. I will now pass on to Mike.

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Thank you, Virginia, and welcome to Virginia, who joined Redbubble last week. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our trading update for the first quarter of FY23. Given our recent FY22 results update from last August, today's trading update for the first quarter will be focused on the trading results and therefore will be relatively short. However, before I start, I do wanna call out that during the quarter, there has been a tremendous amount of work by our teams across both businesses. We are seeing the uplift in people capability start to impact, with real improvements to our on-site experience and operations being delivered to set the group up to deliver the best possible performance for artists and their customers over the peak holiday period. At our FY22 results, I referenced the significant underlying transition that has taken place within Redbubble.

This period of transition has continued into FY23. We have been clear, and we reiterate the commitment to our strategy of internal investment to develop the platforms and processes required to improve the artists and customer experience that will lead to sustained financial performance. Our disciplined approach to investing in internal ca-capacity and capability will return the group to revenue growth and profitability and enable us to achieve our medium-term aspirations. As I've said, we are starting to see the impact of this operationally, and over the near term, we expect to see this investment also positively impact our financial performance. In terms of performance, in summary, for the first quarter of FY23, we saw encouraging growth in our biggest category T-shirts in our largest market of North America.

This positive operating result from the T-shirt category was driven particularly by our TeePublic business, given its focus in this area. However, this was not quite sufficient to offset the decline in homewares, artworks, and mask sales across the group that has continued in these areas since the peak of the COVID sales. Our negative EBITDA result for the quarter largely reflects this strategy to invest to drive long-term revenue and margin growth through investing in our people and the FY23 investment in the Redbubble brand. Given the seasonal operating cycle of our business and the impact of the investments we are making, we expect improved quarterly EBITDA and cash usage for the remaining three quarters relative to this quarter. Now looking into the first quarter result in more detail.

Marketplace revenue for this quarter was down AUD 5.1 million versus the prior corresponding quarter and down 8% on a constant currency basis. This largely reflects the positive impact of continued year-on-year growth in the T-shirt category of AUD 12 million, or 12%, sorry, or AUD 7 million, which was not quite enough to offset the impact of cycling AUD 4 million of mask sales within the accessories category and continued negative year-on-year performance in homewares and artwork categories. Underlying revenue, which adjusts the delivery date revenue adjustments and mask sales, was down just 2% compared to PCP. Looking geographically, the marketplace revenue result was impacted by slightly lower sales in Australia, Europe, and the U.K. than expected, particularly in September. Importantly, the group's largest market, North America, remained resilient in the first quarter of FY23.

You will recall our FY22 results that we shared details about some of the proactive measures taken to support Redbubble's unit economics and margins, both in the short and long term. These measures included an average base price rise of approximately 6% in May and trialing free shipping over a threshold purchase amount in the U.K. and in the U.S. Our experience in both of these trials has been encouraging across both members and non-members, with free shipping thresholds driving incremental marketplace revenue and gross profit versus the preceding period. The increase in sales in product revenue has more than offset the cost of reduced shipping revenue. Reducing reliance on shipping margin is and remains a long-term objective of the group. It's worth adding that as a group, we will continue to experiment with initiatives such as free shipping, which we will adjust and refine as and when required.

Gross profit for the quarter was AUD 39.4 million, down AUD 3 million or 7% on a floating basis from the prior corresponding quarter. Our gross margin was 39.1%, down 90 basis points, largely reflecting the margin impact of the free shipping trials, with Redbubble shipping margins in September reduced by more than 50% versus September last year. This is a deliberate, strategically important step to reduce dependence on shipping margin. The actions we've been taking, such as these shipping trials, are focused on building sustainable absolute scale in product revenue and gross profit dollars. As we build towards our medium-term aspirations, we expect these actions to not only drive increases in gross profit dollars, but in gross profit margin as well.

The EBITDA loss of AUD 14.6 million, down AUD 18.5 million versus PCP, largely reflects the impact of the AUD 3.8 million in the investment in the Redbubble brand. The ongoing investment in people through salaries and wages, up AUD 4.7 million for the quarter versus PCP, and the increase in other expenses of AUD 4 million versus PCP, with the year-on-year change in other expenses principally due to unrealized FX losses on foreign currency bank balances. Salaries and wages in total were AUD 19.3 million for the first quarter. This increase in salaries and wages reflects our strategy to invest in people to drive revenue and margin growth, with 76% of new FTEs since July 2021 added to our growth-focused areas of product and technology, marketing, commercial, and supply chain and logistics.

In relation to the EBITDA results for the quarter, given our existing FY23 guidance for revenue growth over the financial year and supported by the group's favorable GPAPA margin, we expect that this will result in improved quarterly EBITDA for the remaining three quarters of FY23 relative to the first quarter. While we remain committed to our strategy to invest to drive growth, as we discussed in August, we continue to monitor current trading conditions across all geographies and adjust how we invest in market appropriately. Off the back of the current economic environment, given what we observed in September, particularly across Australia, the U.K., and Europe, we made the decision to slow hiring in September.

As a result, we expect FY23 forecast salaries and wages to be towards the lower end of our previous guidance, so the lower of an increase of between approximately AUD 14 million-AUD 18 million for the year. In relation to the Redbubble brand program that we announced at our FY22 results, investment in the Redbubble brand for the first quarter was AUD 3.8 million. Total FY23 guidance for the brand investment is unchanged at approximately AUD 8 million-AUD 12 million for the full year. We are pleased with the performance of the initial investments. In increasing awareness in key U.S. cities we're testing in, we have seen higher view-through rates of our ads and lower costs than benchmarks across all platforms. We will continue to closely monitor the performance of this program and, if appropriate, adjust the timing or quantum of the remaining investment.

Our cash balance as of 30 September was just under AUD 75 million. This position continues to provide us with operational and investment flexibility to continue with our current strategy. Just to add some color in relation to our cash position. Consistent with our seasonal trading pattern, the cash usage of the business peaks during the September quarter. This means that we do not expect the same level of cash usage in each quarter for the remaining quarters of FY23. Now moving to our FY23 outlook, which we reiterate from August with a slight reduction to our FY23 OpEx guidance. Revenue growth is expected in FY23 with the benefit of one-off mask sales in FY 2021 of approximately AUD 55 million now largely fully cycled. Redbubble unit economics, as represented by the GPAPA margin, to remain compelling, supported by the approximately 6% average base price rise from May 2022.

Our forecast FY23 OpEx reflects a slowing of new roles in FY23, down to 4% from 30% growth in FY22. FY23 forecast salaries and wages to be towards the lower end of the increase of between approximately AUD 14 million-AUD 18 million for the year. FY23 forecasts Redbubble brand investment of approximately AUD 8 million-AUD 12 million at constant currency to build awareness that reinforces the path to our medium-term aspirations. Thank you very much for listening. I would like to remind shareholders that our annual general meeting is on next Wednesday, twenty-third October, commencing at 11:30 A.M. Australian Eastern Daylight Saving Time, and will now open up the lines for questions for both myself and for Emma.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star then two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. We ask that questions be limited to two per person to allow everyone an opportunity to ask a question. The first question today comes from Sophie Carran from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Sophie Carran
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Hi, Mike and Emma. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple from me, please. First of all, just interested in the revenue for the quarter. Can you give a little bit more context just around the composition of that? I mean, how much reflects sort of repeat customer purchases versus new customers and any incremental step up in repeat customer behavior that you could call out?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Sophie, for the question. Yeah, we didn't reference it directly, but repeat customer rate for the quarter was actually a record high for the group at just over 49% for the quarter. It sort of reflects a couple of things. One, both businesses are really focused on driving repeat rates for the businesses. A big focus on retention and retained customers. Secondly, unsurprisingly, you know, new customer acquisition is the area that is challenging at the moment. You know, we're not shying away from that, but we're really pleased with the performance of both businesses in driving that repeat rate.

Sophie Carran
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Great. On the brand investment, I would be interested if you could give a little bit more color on some of the metrics you're looking at, just to give you confidence in that brand investment. To clarify as well, the comment that the AUD 8 million-AUD 12 million guidance is in constant currency just where the FX is now versus when that guidance is set. Is it fair to assume that could potentially come in a bit higher than that range, if the FX stays where it is?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah, thanks. On the FX. Look, that's something we'll monitor. Obviously, when we set the program, the Aussie dollar was a bit stronger. Given that the investment. The reason we called it out is because the investment is totally focused on the U.S., all of that money in U.S. dollars, we did think it was important to call that out. However, obviously, that's something that we're managing and we'll monitor. Our goal obviously is to keep it within that guidance. It is important to call out when we were doing that program that the Aussie dollar does impact us a bit directly. Most other areas we have some natural hedges, but when it's a pure expense in U.S. dollars, there is that exposure.

In terms of the metrics, you know, number one for us is measuring changes in awareness in our key demographics that we're targeting in the cities that we're targeting. With the initial investments that we did, we did a little bit of trialing in June. That was positive. We've seen similar patterns with obviously the step up at the moment. We're still collecting all of the data and all of the surveys. I'm sorry that we don't have very explicit data to share at this point. But we are really pleased with what we're seeing from our initial survey results in an increase in brand awareness.

Because it's digital, we can measure very quickly the amount of completed views, the amount of click-throughs, the amount of interactions that the audience has with the different forms of ads that we're putting out. They're the things that we can see quickly, and they're the things that we've been really pleased with in terms of how many completed views did we expect, how many interactions did we expect to get from that, and just frankly, how much reach are we getting for the dollars we're spending. So far, the program is hitting all of those, is hitting all of those benchmarks.

Sophie Carran
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

That's great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Arian Neiron from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Arian Neiron
Managing Director, Barrenjoey

Hi, guys. Hope you're well. A few questions, please. Just on the revenue guidance that you've sort of given or expectation for growth in FY23. Is that on a floating currency basis, or is that constant currency?

Emma Clark
CFO, Redbubble

Good question. Thank you for that. I know obviously currency complicates our results because of all the different geographies in which we operate. When we're assessing performance is always on a reported basis. Reported is floating. In terms of guidance, it's always set on a floating basis, and obviously it's up to us as a management team to manage all of our different FX currency exposures.

Arian Neiron
Managing Director, Barrenjoey

Perfect. By the same token, to that AUD 14 million-AUD 18 million of headcount, additional headcount, is that the majority of that headcount in Australian dollars or U.S. dollars so that the AUD 14 million could be higher in Aussie dollar terms, given it's a constant currency basis, please?

Emma Clark
CFO, Redbubble

Yes, another good question. So it's actually split across the different geographies in which we have offices or locations where we have quite a few people. As we've discussed and we actually mentioned just previously, you know, quite a lot of that increase in roles has gone into growth areas of the business. You know, engineering and product is largely based in Melbourne, supply chain and marketing largely based in the U.S., so it's across both.

Arian Neiron
Managing Director, Barrenjoey

Okay. In terms of the quarterly EBITDA performance, when you say you expect improved performance, are you saying that the dollar EBITDA for each of the next three quarters will be better than the first quarter that you've just reported? Is that what you mean?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yes. That's correct. What we're saying is we expect each quarter, each of the subsequent quarters of the financial year to be an improved result relative to the result for this quarter.

Arian Neiron
Managing Director, Barrenjoey

Sorry, last one. The marketing cost of sales and performance, that's 16% now. Is that structurally higher now versus that sort of 10%-11% you were doing pre-COVID? I mean, yeah, any color on that, please?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah. I think it's a great question, and I think it's two things. It's number one, absolutely, and we've been open about this, that digital cost of acquisition has definitely increased. It really started to pop about October last year, and it's remained elevated since that point. So there definitely has been a step up there, particularly through the search channels, which as a lot of you know is related to some of the ATT changes that has made attribution and effectiveness of non-search, particularly the social channels, harder. That has caused a step-up that we haven't. We have seen it somewhat stabilize, but it definitely hasn't decreased. Secondly, though, it's also, you know, what's our approach as a business, and we've been really focused.

A lot of you would know, we're very focused on our first transaction profitable threshold for all of our different paid acquisition channels, and that's an important call for us. Within that, though, we are focused on acquiring customers that are profitable, but as long as they're profitable, given that we're starting to see our repeat rates and our retention rates improve, that gives us confidence. That gives us confidence to go a little bit harder on our paid marketing. As long as we're acquiring those customers, and we're acquiring them profitably, then that's what we're doing. That's what we're aiming to do.

that focus on absolute gross profit dollars as opposed to necessarily maximizing that GPAPA margin, that is a little bit of a shift, as a business that is important for us, and we feel that's the right shift. I think you're seeing a combination of those two factors.

Arian Neiron
Managing Director, Barrenjoey

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Wilson Wong from Jarden. Please go ahead.

Wilson Wong
Equity Analyst, Jarden

Hi. Hi, Michael and Emma. I just wanted to get a bit more color just around what the composition of the brand investment was in the first half and what will be invested in over the second half.

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah. In terms of the brand investment for this quarter, we're not going to break it down by its components in terms of dollars. For a you know a new program like this, there's a combination of a few things. One, obviously there's the production, which is a bit more of a one-off. The bulk of the spend is obviously on media. Then there's also, you know, agency fees, you know, as we work with our external agency. There is a definite bit in this quarter that is a bit upfront. There's a bit of upfront costs that are a bit more one-off in nature, particularly around production. That said, it was a deliberate decision this quarter to front-load some of the media spend, and that was for two reasons.

One is to make sure that we're at a scale where we can really measure the effectiveness and maximize our learnings. Number two, we do know that customers in August, September, one, it's our back-to-school period, and we have a natural uplift during that period, particularly in the U.S., that we wanted to maximize. Secondly, we also know historically from our normal paid acquisition and unpaid marketing channels, that customers who either purchase or become aware of Redbubble during August and September are then more likely to come and purchase in the peak holiday period. It was those two factors that we felt it was, you know, important for us to go a little bit heavier than obviously the average during the first quarter of that investment.

Wilson Wong
Equity Analyst, Jarden

Sure. Thanks for that. My next question just around, I guess, the relative performance across the regions. What drove the difference between, I guess, you would say the U.S.'s relatively better performance compared to Australia and Europe?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yes. Look, we expected Australia to be a bit low. Remembering that Australia is only 7% of our revenue. Within the group, 92%-93% of our revenue is generated outside of Australia. That said, within Australia, we expected Australia to be a really tough comp because this time last year Australia was in its last lockdown, particularly Melbourne. We actually saw quite a spike from that. That said, even within those expectations, it was a little softer, as was the U.K. and Europe. Now we can speculate, you know, on what that was. Obviously, Europe and the U.K. both have significant cost of living pressures.

Australia. The Australian economy tends to be more interest rate sensitive, given a lot higher percentage on variable relative to the U.S.. We can speculate on those things. What we're really trying to do is follow the data. What we're really trying to do is make sure that we continue with our strategy of investing through our people and investing in our brand to drive both near-term and long-term growth of the business. At the same time, as we said, we just saw enough in September just to make us wanna be a little prudent heading into the very important holiday season.

That's why we made the decision to slow down our hiring, which will pull back our OpEx a bit through the quarter ahead, and also just give us a bit more optionality depending on how the quarter ahead plays out. I'm sure a lot of you know that, you know, obviously the holiday quarter is our peak. You know, in revenue terms, we make roughly as much revenue in November and December as we do in the first four months of the year. What we do during July and October, we do that basically again in just November and December.

We just thought the right thing to do, given the little bit of weakness we saw in those markets, was to be prudent with our OpEx, and that gives us some optionality heading into next year, depending on how the quarter ahead of us plays out.

Wilson Wong
Equity Analyst, Jarden

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Tim Piper from UBS. Please go ahead.

Tim Piper
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Hey, morning, Mike and Emma. First question, just on balance sheet. Recognize that September quarter is the lower point in terms of your cash, and it builds up into December. There's sort of a AUD 35 million uplift from September into December last year. Do we sort of anticipate a similar kind of profile in the cash balance, the seasonality come through this year as well?

Emma Clark
CFO, Redbubble

Thanks, Tim, for the question. We expect a similar level. I mean, well, actually, let me come back a little bit. In the last three years, we've had three completely different holiday patterns in terms of across that period of that quarter and how much the uplift has been versus, say, for example, the September results. That's why we mentioned that there is a little bit of uncertainty going into this as to which one of those patterns, if any of them at all, it follows. That being said, broadly speaking, yes, we would expect a large seasonal uplift in Q2. Obviously, we're not giving quarterly guidance at the moment, so I can't give you the answer on the exact nature and number of the uplift in cash across that period.

We do expect it to uplift in terms of revenue and sales on the platforms quite a lot over the next quarter.

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah. I think it's worth emphasizing that Q1 tends to be the seasonal low point. The end of Q2 tends to be the seasonal high point. You would all know that we, you know, we generate a lot of sales and a lot of cash during that November, December. We then pay out some of that cash into January for those of you who follow the pattern. Those patterns are important with the business. The business is definitely not consistent every quarter. Just taking any number in Q1 and timing it by four is not the right way to approach this business, which I know a lot of you are aware of.

Emma Clark
CFO, Redbubble

It also means that simply taking a percentage uplift Q2 on Q1 last year and applying it to this year might not be accurate either. You'd have to look back over the last few years and look at what the range of percentage uplifts are, and we would expect it to land somewhere within that range.

Tim Piper
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay. Just to follow on from my first of two questions. As we then look into sort of June, say you burn, I don't know, 25, 30 operating EBITDA, something like that. Assuming cash comes down to, I don't know, AUD 60 million, something like that in June, just using that as a hypothetical number. At what point or at what cash balance do you sit there and you go, it might be time to sort of, you know, you talked about some of this spend being discretionary. You know, at what point does the cash balance, you sit there and go, we need to pull back a bit on that brand investment or the employee expense increases?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Tim. Look, we're not gonna talk about those sort of levels. What I would say is, as a management team, you know, we're very focused on our cash position. We're very, you know, we're very aware of the fact that we are in a cash usage position. We've said a few times that one, we're committed to the strategy to invest in our people and invest in our brands. You know, hopefully you'll also recall in August, and we'll reiterate it again, that we're not going to be pigheaded about the exact amount of spend. The spend that we're putting in is investment.

That investment needs to generate a return over the medium term, but it also does need to generate a return over the nearer term. If the market isn't there, you know, if something happens in the market that we can't generate that nearer term return, then of course the right thing for us to do as a management team is to look at what element of that investment is discretionary and pull it back so that we are managing our total cash position and our cash usage effectively. We're highly aware of that.

You can probably see from what we've said today in terms of just slowing down on our hiring, that there are already things that we're looking at because we do know that there is that we need to strike the right balance between the right amount of investment to drive that growth in the business, but also being cognizant of what the market conditions are, both demand and competition, to make sure that we're generating the right level of return on that investment, so that we're managing our cash position very carefully.

Emma Clark
CFO, Redbubble

Can I just add one point?

Tim Piper
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yeah, got it.

Emma Clark
CFO, Redbubble

To that? Sorry, Tim. Just one extra point would be, I think it would be important for everyone to note that while we are in a cash usage phase at the moment, you know, we haven't given any specific guidance on cash. We are, as Mike said, very conscious about making sure that we maintain adequate working capital buffer. You know, internally, we are very focused on returning this business both to EBITDA profitability and to actually turn that cash back into cash growth. Internally, we're focused on that. To Mike's point, as we look through all the different levers at our disposal, we do keep those, you know, internal goals firmly in mind.

Tim Piper
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Great. Just a second question on the just the quarter in terms of of revenue. Can you maybe talk a bit to what your sort of conversion rates kinda look like in the quarter? I just wanna understand. I mean, August is seasonally a strong month with back to school. I mean, the step up from the fourth quarter into the first quarter probably wasn't as big as you've seen historically. Was the back to school, Mike, not as strong? You obviously referenced Australia and Europe being the weaker kind of regions, but I just want to understand that. Then also, I guess on top of that, you know, you talked about repeat customers being strong. Are you seeing poor conversion in the customers that, you know, are coming through paid channels, or what sort of explains that?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah, no, thanks for the question, Tim. I think as we tried to be clear that, you know, the first half through July, August, was pretty much aligned with our expectations on a top line. I think we were clear that September just, you know, was a little bit softer than we would've preferred. Hence, you know, the action in terms of just slowing down our hiring and pulling back slightly on our OpEx. In terms of the makeup, you know, back to school was okay. You know, all of those things were normal.

What we have said, though, and what we're consistent on is repeat rates. Repeat rate's actually going really well. Both businesses are focused on that. We're pleased with that performance. It's definitely new customer acquisition, that's the challenge. That's both in paid channels, but in unpaid channels as well. It's across all channels. And again, we could speculate on what that is, but we're following, you know, the data. It's really the new customer acquisition that is the area that's a bit more, you know, challenging at the moment.

Tim Piper
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Okay. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Wei-Weng Chen from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Wei-Weng Chen
Director of Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Hi, guys. Just a couple of questions from me. First one on FX again. Can you maybe just remind us your COGS, are they do you have natural hedges, I guess so, like in Australia, you know, you earn AUD 8 and your COGS earn AUD 8, or are your COGS U.S. dollar denominated?

Emma Clark
CFO, Redbubble

Yeah, great question. We do have a natural hedge, obviously being a while since we've spoken about it 'cause we haven't had the need to. Yeah, you know, as you would know, in prior quarters when we report operational metrics, we quite often talk about how much of our production is localized close to our customers. That does generally mean that the fulfillment locations are located in the geography where the sales are generated. There is a natural hedge down into the COGS lines as a result of that.

When we're talking FX gains or losses, you know, certainly in the last, let's call it year and a half, most of those are unrealized, and most of those are actually on the cash balance that we're holding as we take all the various components of that cash balance and translate them back into AUD at balance date. It's not so much the P&L impact of FX because to my earlier point, I mean, obviously with COGS being such a large percentage of the gross transaction value and with natural hedges largely operating in place, the P&L FX variances are usually quite small when you net them out.

Wei-Weng Chen
Director of Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Okay. Thanks. And then just on the guidance for FY23 growth. Just on the face of it, you know, first quarter you had the U.S., which is your core business, resilient, and then the rest seemed to be sort of below your expectations. I guess the FX is kind of in your favor at the moment, but I guess my question is how do you get confidence that, you know, you can return to growth for the year? Is it largely gonna be FX driven?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

No, no. We wouldn't rely on FX for growth. Absolutely, absolutely not. What gives us confidence is a few things. Number one, you know, you'll recall when we spoke in August that we did signal that we thought Q1 was a reasonably tough comp for us. We talked about how, you know, we talked about that pretty clearly. Secondly, you know, as I alluded right at the start of the call, the people that we've brought into the business are just starting now to really ramp up. A lot of the FTEs that we've brought in have started this calendar year, a lot in the last six months. What that means by...

You know, they need to onboard, get up to speed on our systems or our processes, take the initiatives that will drive growth and implement them. We're just getting through the first wave of that now, given how many people joined us in the March to June period. They've really still only had that, you know, post the onboarding, that three months to get some of those initiatives happening. You know, I can see all the work that these teams are doing. All of that work is focused on either driving revenue or margin improvements. We do see some of them coming through, hopefully for the holiday quarter, but then into Q3 and Q4.

They're very focused on driving that revenue and margin growth. You know, secondly, we expect to see the decline in homewares and artwork start to level out. Once we take out mask sales, which again, you know, post Q1, there's a bit in Q2, but then it really levels out in Q3 and Q4. If we think about the areas that are dragging on our business, masks, homewares, artworks, we expect them to level out in the second half of the year.

Between the, you know, the efforts that the teams are putting in to drive revenue to drive margin improvements, plus what we expect to see a stabilization in those categories that have been drags on the business, those things give us real confidence that as we look ahead for the full year, that over the full year, we expect the full year of FY23 to be above the full year of FY22.

Wei-Weng Chen
Director of Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. No, thanks for that. Maybe just a very quick final one just on the CFO search. Just wondering if there are any updates there.

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Look, thanks for the question. Look, obviously, we're in process. We'll update the market as you know, as we should. That's, you know, I'm sure you know that's about as much as we can say at this point in time.

Wei-Weng Chen
Director of Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Owen Humphries from Canaccord. Please go ahead.

Owen Humphries
Senior Research Analyst, Cannacord

Good one. Quick one. Just to talk about you had headwinds in masks, artworks and homewares. Can you just maybe talk about the growth rates in those categories relative to apparel for the quarter?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah. Thanks, Owen. I'm trying to just scramble to grab my notes so that I can be a little more specific. You can see it in the numbers on the last page in the appendix of the group. Apparel and clothing was up, I think, 12% across the group. Those other areas were down, I think all of them double digit, sort of, you know, 15%-16% plus in those areas. Sorry, I'm doing math off the top of my head. Yeah, so that they're the areas. I'll point you to the table on the back of the release to break those down.

Owen Humphries
Senior Research Analyst, Cannacord

Sure. Okay. Maybe a question, more strategically. Your revenue is expected to be at all-time highs this year. Your margins are broadly in line, the gross profit margin is broadly in line with where they've been historically. The share price is approaching all-time lows. Maybe a question for you, Michael, around maybe the board, just strategic initiatives that you guys are putting in place to extrapolate the true value of the business.

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah, thanks, Owen. I'll just correct you there that our guidance for revenue for this year is for growth on FY22. That is not necessarily consistent with all-time highs. I just wanna call that out. We haven't said the amount, we've said growth on FY22. Sorry to be technical, but just wanna make sure. Secondly, you know, yeah, absolutely. You know, we're absolutely disappointed with where the share price is, and I can assure you that, you know, management board and the whole team is working as hard as possible to turn that around. We, you know, we believe the best way to turn that around is to improve the financial performance of the business. There's no way around that.

That's what we're focused on, we're focused on doing. Teams are working hard. As I said, I can see the operational improvements that are occurring in the business. We need that, and we expect that to flow through to the financial performance of the business, and that will help drive growth this year. Growing our top line, growing our margin, returning the business to cash flow positive and EBITDA positive are the key goals for management team that we believe is the best way to turn the share price around from an operational perspective. Then obviously, as we've talked about, I think on every call, you know, above that, you know, the board and the management team, all...

You know, we're always looking at what are the other options we have to create shareholder value. That is a natural part of the board and management's job, and that's what we'll continue to do.

Owen Humphries
Senior Research Analyst, Cannacord

I guess with an EV close to AUD 60-odd million, I guess the real question here is there's a perceived balance sheet issue with Redbubble. Can you maybe highlight where you perceive the cash low point for this business to be in the future periods?

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Yeah. Look, you know, I don't agree that there's a balance sheet issue. We're in an incredibly fortunate position that we have zero debt, we have a positive cash balance. We haven't talked about exactly what a low point is or will be. That would be dependent on the financial performance of the business. What I will reiterate, and hopefully what you can see both from the release but also from the actions that we're taking in terms of slowing hiring, in terms of managing our OpEx, that we are very focused. We're very focused on our strategy to invest to grow, but we're also very focused on returning this business to cash flow positive, returning the business to EBITDA positive.

We know that these are important things for the business, and that implies obviously that we, you know, that we are focused on making sure that we manage that cash balance very, very carefully.

Owen Humphries
Senior Research Analyst, Cannacord

Thank you.

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Great.

Operator

That does conclude the question and answer session. I'll hand the conference back to Michael for any closing remarks.

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Look, thank you everyone for attending the call today. Really appreciate the questions. I know that Emma will be in touch with a number of you later today. Just finally, before we finish up, I do wanna call out that this is Emma's last call with Redbubble. We're really sad to lose her. She's going on to, you know, to something great in her next opportunity. I wanna publicly, you know, thank Emma for her work with Redbubble over the past three years. She'll be missed. When appropriate, we'll have an announcement on our CFO in the future. Thank you, Emma, for your time here.

Emma Clark
CFO, Redbubble

Thank you, Mike, and thank you everyone. It's been a pleasure dealing with all of you.

Michael Ilczynski
CEO, Redbubble

Thanks all. We'll talk to you all soon. Appreciate your attendance.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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