Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Woodside Petroleum Limited Investor Update. All participants are in a listen only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Richard Goiter, Chairman.
Please go ahead.
Thank you. Well, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us at short notice and apologies for the short delay. But I'm Here in Perth with our Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Meg O'Neill and Chief Financial Officer, Sherry Jewett. This is an important day for Woodside.
And on this day, I do want to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land upon which we're presenting Today, the Noongar Whadjuk people pay my respects to their elders, both past and present, and I also extend my respect to all other Aboriginal nations, The future generations and their continued connection to country. Can I also before I Can I just say we are mindful that many of you are being impacted by COVID-nineteen lockdowns and the line? We generally hope that you, your families, colleagues and friends are Safe and healthy as we move forward. Today, we've announced Meg O'Neill's appointment as Woodside's CEO and Managing Director, and I want to say a few words about this before moving on to other matters. Speaking for the Board, we're delighted that Meg is our new CEO and Managing Director.
In making our decision, Meg's unique combination of skills and accomplishments exemplified in recent months set her apart as the Board's top candidate. Meg brings with her a huge amount of international industry knowledge accumulated across her 27 year career. She is an experienced business leader with a strong track record of delivery across the oil and gas value chain, Mike here, as I said, the ideal candidate to lead Woodside going forward. I want to thank Meg for doing an outstanding job leading Woodside over recent months. Meg from me personally and from the Board, congratulations.
It's going to be a pleasure working with you and your team as Woodside takes on the opportunities in front of us. As we announced earlier this afternoon, Woodside and BHP have entered into a merger commitment deed To combine BHP's oil and gas portfolio with Woodside through an all stock merger. Put simply, BHP's global petroleum business will We merged with Woodside, creating a larger, more resilient Woodside with the financial strength to fund growth and thrive Through the energy transition. The combined oil and gas portfolio transforms Woodside by doubling production, Diversifying the portfolio and offering multiple growth opportunities. This would create a top 10 independent energy company by production.
We will have the balance sheet cash flow and financial strength to fund planned, developed in the near term and low carbon opportunities into the future. The proposal represents long term value for Woodside and BHP shareholders delivering a geographically diverse and balanced portfolio, Welcome, Bonnie, the global experience, proven management and technical expertise of Woodside and BHP Petroleum. BHP Petroleum's technical capability in oil and gas is well known to Woodside as long term partners in the Northwest Shelf Project and in Scarborough. The Woodside Board believes this will be positive for all our stakeholders as it brings together our complementary assets and capabilities, Which will provide a strong base to deliver enduring shareholder returns, will enable us to invest in those existing and new assets, our people and our communities. Importantly, Woodside's existing emissions reduction targets to reduce net emissions By 15% by 202530% by 2,030 will be extended to the enlarged portfolio.
Meg will discuss this in more detail shortly. Please take the time to read the disclaimer, notes and assumptions on Slides 23. These contain important information about the presentation and transaction. Unless indicated otherwise, all dollar figures are in U. S.
Dollars, and We'll be discussing a potential transaction that is subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions. The Board is confident in the strong rationale for the deal, We're working closely with BHP, but of course, there is no guarantee that the transaction will proceed. I'll now hand over to Meg, who will talk you through the details of the merger.
Thank you, Richard, and good afternoon to everyone participating in this call. It's a pleasure to be discussing today a merger that will transform Woodside By delivering a large scale and differentiated global portfolio, meaningful development options and compelling and enduring returns to shareholders. Let's start with an overview of the proposed transaction on Slide 4. The scope of the merger is BHP's entire petroleum business, Including its international portfolio of producing assets and growth opportunities. On completion, Woodside would issue new shares that would be distributed to BHP shareholders.
The expanded Woodside would then be owned 52% by existing Woodside shareholders and 48% by existing BHP shareholders through the newly issued shares. Pro form a ownership reflects the net asset value contributed by each party with no premium paid. After completion and using Woodside's current share price, the market capitalization of the enlarged Woodside would be around AUD 40,000,000,000 The combined production portfolio will deliver a significant increase in operating cash flow. On a per share basis, We expect the transaction to be cash flow accretive from the commencement of 2023 and is the 1st year after completion in 2022. Further upside will be realized through capturing the synergies and cost savings that come from combining our complementary businesses with savings anticipated to be more than $400,000,000 per year from 2023 onwards.
Importantly, our enhanced cash flow will support an ongoing attractive dividend to our shareholders. On completion, it is intended that the Woodside Board will appoint a current BHP Director as a Woodside Director. We'll be headquartered here in Perth, Western Australia with a significant presence in Houston to run our North American business. We will also consider whether it makes sense to have other aspects of the combined portfolio managed by our team in Houston. Woodside will retain its primary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange with Woodside Petroleum Limited remaining the corporate vehicle for the expanded business.
We will consider secondary listings in other jurisdictions, including New York and London, as we work towards completion. As Richard mentioned, Woodside's corporate emissions reduction targets, which we announced in November last year, will apply to the combined portfolio. Over the coming months, we will finalize our due diligence as we work towards executing sale agreements. Approval by Woodside shareholders of the issue of new shares to deliver the transaction will be sought in the Q2 of 2022 ahead of completion. On to Slide 5, where the rationale for the merger is outlined.
The logic is simple and compelling, delivering value for both Woodside and Both the Woodside and BHP portfolios are of similar size, featuring high quality Tier 1 assets. The two companies have been partners for decades in the Northwest Shelf, and of course, we've been working together on Scarborough. The The enlarged and diversified portfolio of producing assets will support significantly increased and enduring cash flows. Woodside's already strong balance sheet will be further improved by the addition of unlevered BHP assets. Increased cash flows will support our ability to deliver superior returns to shareholders, while also providing additional funding for our development pipeline.
We will continue to apply our prudent and disciplined approach to capital management to make best use of this increased cash. The increased portfolio of growth opportunities, increased cash flow and stronger balance sheet together And we'll have the balance sheet capacity to deliver growth while maintaining an investment grade credit rating. All of our investment decisions will be made through the lens of the energy transition. The enlarged portfolio delivers The cash flow and resilience to fund our evolution through the transition, investing in the right new energy opportunities in support of our aspiration to be net 0 by 2,050. Our 2 portfolios are stronger combined.
This is a benefit of bringing BHP's petroleum business together with Woodside. We can be more efficient together than apart. The scale and quality of the combined portfolio is shown on Slide 6, demonstrating the production and earnings delivered in the 12 months to the 30th June 2021 on a combined basis. Western Australia remains the primary hub with production from Pluto LNG, The Northwest Shelf, Pyrenees, Macedon and Wheatstone. On the East Coast of Australia are the Bass Strait operations.
In the Gulf of Mexico, there is a suite of large producing assets comprising Shenzi, Atlantis and Mad Dog. There's also production offshore Trinidad and Tobago. Together, the portfolio produced almost 200,000,000 barrels of oil equivalent on a combined basis for the 12 months to 30th June 2021, which would rank as the top 10 independent oil and gas producer by production. LNG production was 10,600,000 tonnes, which would rank in the top 10 LNG producers globally. The average unit production cost Across the combined portfolio was competitive at approximately $8 per barrel of oil equivalent, delivering combined EBITDA of around $4,700,000,000 This number is before the $400,000,000 per annum of synergies that we expect to realize from the combined portfolios from 2023 onwards.
There are several high quality near term growth opportunities, which will contribute to production in coming years. Mad Dog Phase 2 in the Gulf of Mexico is underway and expected to come online in 2022. Attractive tieback opportunities exist in the Gulf of Mexico, including Shenzi North, which BHP sanctioned earlier this month. The Sangamarc Field Development Phase 1 Offshore Senegal is in construction with first oil targeted for 2023. Altogether, there are over 10,000,000,000 barrels of oil equivalent of reserves and resources for the combined entity.
And of course, there is Scarborough, the largest and most significant growth opportunity in the portfolio. Significantly, the merger of BHP's portfolio with Woodside derisks and supports Scarborough FID this year. Slide 7 shows how we intend to meet our emissions reduction targets with the combined portfolio. Last year, we announced targets of 15% emissions reductions by 202530% by 2,030 on a pathway to net 0 by 2,050, and these targets will remain unchanged as we integrate the 2 businesses. Our commitment to increase transparency and reporting is also unchanged, and we will report all equity emissions for both operated and non operated assets.
It is important to note that while this merger results in more emissions being counted on Woodside's account, there is no increase in actual global emissions due to this transaction. The merger consolidates the ownership of existing assets, which will benefit From application of Woodside's carbon management capabilities across the combined portfolio, the merger increases the size of Woodside's abatement commitments. The chart on the right demonstrates a pathway to meeting our 2,030 target with the combined portfolio. Net reductions are expected to be delivered through designing new facilities to run more efficiently, operating existing facilities more efficiently and offsetting the remainder. We currently have access to enough offsets to meet the 2025 target for the combined portfolio.
On Slide 8, I want to say a bit more about the Gulf of Mexico assets. They are offshore deepwater conventional assets primarily producing oil. The Gulf of Mexico assets combined contain combined reserves and resources of over 1,000,000,000 barrels and there are multiple attractive tieback opportunities to extend production. The merger of Woodside's and BHP's oil and gas portfolios creates a better business. Slide 9 presents a view of the combined portfolio, which really sets it apart from international peers.
The chart on the right Plus the percentage of production in OECD Nations on the x axis. This gives an indication of country risk to production and revenue. The y axis shows the percentage of conventional production. A benefit of conventional production is that it tends to have lower operating costs and sustaining CapEx, Indicating greater resilience through the commodity price cycle. The combined Woodside portfolio occupies a unique position amongst our competitors, providing a lower risk and more resilient proposition.
The charts on the left demonstrate the high level of diversification by product and Geography, Further Reducing Risk at a Portfolio Level. Moving to Slide 10, which demonstrates the Two key features of the production portfolio are high return oil and long life LNG. The strong oil production is expected to generate significant cash in the coming years and help fund future growth and Woodside's investment in the energy transition. Long life LNG will become a larger portion of the portfolio in the future, particularly when Scarborough starts producing, which puts Woodside in an advantaged position as the energy transition progresses. The 2C resources, which The chart on the bottom left indicates the size and significance of Scarborough.
It represents over 2,000,000,000 barrels oil equivalent and would effectively double our booked 2P reserves when sanctioned. Slide 11 presents another view of the attractiveness of the combined portfolio. The x axis indicates EBITDAX margin, the y axis represents production growth from 2021 to 2027 And the size of the bubble represents reserves life. Again, the combined portfolio provides a differentiated offering with an appealing combination of margin growth and longevity as compared to international peers. The reserves life of around 20 years is another demonstration The value to be realized by delivering the Scarborough development.
The next few slides from Slide 12 demonstrate the impact of the merger and And the portfolio on cash generation and our balance sheet. One of the truly exciting aspects of this transaction is the anticipated Strong and sustained cash generation. I've mentioned the significant growth in cash flow several times already, and these charts show why. The top chart shows the magnitude of operating cash flow that could be achieved from the current portfolio in the coming years, assuming we take FID on Scarborough this year. The bottom chart shows free cash flow, which deducts investment expenditure.
This indicates the important contribution operating cash flow will make to the funding of Scarborough and other growth projects. Looking to 20262027 and once Scarborough is producing, The portfolio is generating significant free cash flow that can be used to support continued shareholder returns or the developments of other opportunities. Slide 13 shows the pro form a liquidity and gearing position as at 30 June. A feature of the transaction is that the BHP assets are coming to Woodside with no cash and no debt. As an all script deal, there is no impact on Woodside's liquidity Our debt profile, although the asset base of the combined Woodside approximately doubles.
This makes Woodside's balance strong balance sheet even stronger. The merged company would have gearing of around 12%, providing significant flexibility with how we choose to fund future growth. Our capital management work is on Slide 14. Both Woodside's and BHP's oil and gas portfolios are characterized by low cost, high margin operations. These operations generate enduring cash flow made more resilient by the increased diversification of the combined group.
The generated cash can be either returned to shareholders or reinvested in value accretive opportunities that further contributes to our low cost, Woodside has long maintained a focus on returning strong franked dividends to shareholders and expect this to continue with enhanced cash flows from the combined portfolio. Following the merger, our investment opportunities will have increased to include attractive oil tiebacks in the Gulf of Mexico, long term LNG and investment in new commodities that can help shape the energy transition, including In the near term, our focus will be on making sure we are in a robust position to fund Scarborough along with other commitments. Selling down Pluto Train 2 to around 51% is a key enabler in this. This process is already underway with good early interest from prospective partners. And of course, carbon management will continue to be a key consideration as we make decisions on where to deploy capital.
Slide 15 summarizes the typical project characteristics of oil, gas and new energy developments as our portfolio evolves in the coming decades. Oil investments tend to be quick to develop with a shorter payback period. Oil developments are a core competency for both Woodside and BHP Petroleum And oil is likely to be a feature of the portfolio in the coming decade as it generates the cash to fund other developments. Gas developments provide a different value proposition to oil. LNG, when produced from conventional gas fields, Tends to be capital intensive upfront but with low ongoing cost and a long production life.
LNG as a fuel expected to play a key role Meeting the energy needs of economies, particularly in Asia. Gas is the lowest carbon hydrocarbon, And LNG helps customers meet their decarbonization goals, for example, as they reduce use of coal or oil for power generation, which is a major priority for emission reduction in coal dependent Asian Economies. The current market for new energy commodities is relatively small today, but is expected to grow significantly over time. And so our investment in these technologies will be customer driven. We possess complementary skills from our core business that will help us succeed as we invest in these new areas.
You can see on Slide 16 another view of the portfolio of producing assets and development opportunities. The area of each bubble represents the indicative size of the resource or potential market, and you can see why we're keen to sanction Scarborough. Beyond Scarborough, we have credible growth options. There are several subsea tieback opportunities to existing infrastructure, including in the Gulf of Mexico. Tognex of this nature tend to deliver high returns.
The potential for hydrogen and ammonia is large. And while the markets We are looking for opportunities to develop our capability by investing in value accretive scalable projects. On Slide 17. A key feature of this merger is the alignment it builds for final investment decision on Scarborough and Pluto Train 2 later this year. While many of you listening today will be very familiar with Scarborough, I'm conscious that for others it will be new.
Scarborough is a large gas field off the Western Australian coast that we are proposing to develop through expanded facilities at the Pluto LNG facility. BHP and Woodside are the 2 participants in the Scarborough joint venture. So this merger will bring the joint venture under a single owner in Woodside. With approximately 0.1 percent carbon dioxide in the reservoir and a new efficient LNG train at Pluto, It will be one of the lowest carbon intensity sources of LNG delivered into Asia. Slide 18 summarizes the main benefits of the merger to the Scarborough developments.
First, the increased cash flows from the combined portfolio Strongly support the Scarborough funding requirements. Secondly, we anticipate the joint venture still being able to take the final Investment decision targeted for later this year, even though the merger transaction is not expected to complete until the Q2 of next year. We have previously said that we would like to sell down Pluto Train 2 before FID. We still intend to do this and thereby release in excess of $3,000,000,000 of capital. Slide 19 provides some information from BHP on Mad Dog in the Gulf of Mexico, which is currently undergoing expansion with Phase 2 of the development.
The Gulf assets will continue to deliver significant production and revenue the combined portfolio for many years to come. Moving to our decarbonization strategy on Slide 20. Woodside's emissions targets were set anticipating that our production portfolio could grow, and we set up a scalable emissions management framework to accommodate increases in our portfolio. Emissions Management is a core part of what we do embedded across the business. We are committed to transparent reporting.
Our carbon business is experienced in both generating our own offsets and acquiring offsets from domestic and international markets. We are targeting an average carbon cost of under $20 per tonne. The combined production portfolio Generates cash to fund our investment in the energy transition, including the development of new energy production. On to Slide 21. A benefit of merging 2 complementary businesses is that things can be run more efficiently, realizing enduring benefits for shareholders.
Our current expectation is that we should be able to realize synergies of over $400,000,000 per year with savings coming from across the business. As we realize efficiencies at a corporate level and high grade exploration and development opportunities, We expect to see cost savings of this magnitude from 2023. On Slide 22, we've outlined the approximate time line to completion. To get to this point, we have performed a significant amount of due diligence on BHP's Petroleum business and assets. BHP has likewise performed detailed due diligence on Woodside.
A key area of focus has been understanding and valuing the decommissioning liabilities associated with BHP's asset. The next major milestone will be the execution of a full form sale agreement and a transition agreement, which are targeted for October. We'll then work on closing out all required consents and approvals. I expect we will put the question of new shares That brings us to the end of the presentation. I'm delighted to have had the opportunity to make this announcement today.
We are looking forward to ongoing collaboration with BHP as we work towards completion of this transaction. Throughout this period, we will continue our focus on our priorities for 2021: cost and efficiency transformation of our base business, Achieving targeted FID for Scarborough this year, delivering Sangamarc Phase 1 and continuing to build our low cost, low carbon future. I look forward to talking with many of you in the coming weeks. With that, I'd like to open the line to questions.
Thank you. Your first question comes from Adam Martin with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good evening and congratulations Meg on your appointment. First question Meg, just regarding Gulf of Is Woodside sort of a long term holder of those assets? Or could you look to sell some of those time and recycle capital? Just wondering on your thoughts on the Gulf of Mexico, please.
Yes. Good question, Adam. So BHP's Gulf of Mexico assets which will enable us to deliver on our substantial development portfolio and return value to our shareholders.
Okay. And second question, Woodside historically talked about sort of Selling the infrastructure Pluto trend is sort of like a condition precedent of moving forward on Scarborough. So it has to happen. Is that the same view going forward with this merger just given that improved balance sheet? Yes.
It's a great question, Adam. So we do prioritize the sell down of We think that is an important part of our capital management plan. I'm very pleased to say that the data room is open, and we're seeing great interest from a number of partners, so we expect that process to proceed very smoothly and successfully.
And the final question for me is just on the right debt level within the business. I mean Woodside has traditionally talked about 10% to 30% gearing. We've obviously got energy transition. This deal puts gearing down at the low end of that level. I mean, what do you think is the right level of gearing for the business going forward?
Look, we've historically said that our target gearing range is 15% to 35%, excuse me. Combining with BHP's portfolio brings our gearing down to 12%. That gives us tremendous flexibility. So with low gearing, High liquidity and strong cash flow, it gives us great flexibility to fund future growth.
Okay. Thanks. That's all for me. Well done. I'll let someone else go.
Your next question comes from Mark Wiseman with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Richard, and thanks, Mick, and congratulations, Just a few questions from me. Firstly, just on the decommissioning liabilities, I think BHP carried about US9 1,000,000,000 You asked for the entire company, but we've never been able to work out how much of that was petroleum. Are you able to just confirm how much decom you're taking on here?
Look, Mark, what we've done as we've put together the offer is we've done a very deep dive In our due diligence process to understand the decommissioning obligations, that is fully valued in the 48.52 merger ratio. I guess you need to ask BHP as to how much they plan to adjust their books with this transaction.
Yes. Okay. Okay. And do you have a sense of what the dividend payout policy might be? I know historically the minimum for Woodside has been 50%, but The setting has been a lot higher over the last number of years.
Are you able to give some sense on how that might change?
So Mark, our dividend policy is to pay out 50% of underlying NPATs. In recent years, we've been paying out at about 80%. We do recognize that strong dividends are very much Appreciated by our shareholders and our Australian shareholders particularly value the franking credit. One of the great benefits of the transaction It generates the cash flow through the investment cycle that will enable us to continue delivering strong dividends to our shareholders.
Okay, great. And just the last one for me, just on Scarborough. Can I just clarify that this Transaction won't have been voted on until the Q2 of 2022, but your intention is to take FID on Scarborough At potentially 100 percent equity level later this year before this transaction is really known whether it would complete or not, I'm just wondering How do the rating agencies and your finances sort of consider that?
Look, let me answer the first part of the question. We are absolutely committed to Scarborough being ready to take the Scarborough investment decision this year. We think the time is right in the market when we look at LNG demand in the back half of the 2020s. We do see need for the product. We see an opportune time in the markets in terms of attractive pricing with the contractors.
And With this merger, we've clearly got a strong alignment with our partner to take that decision. We do plan to progress the sell down of Pluto Train 2, as I managed As I mentioned to ensure we've got the capital management and the flexibility to use those funds elsewhere. And we'll be having a very active discussions with the rating agencies over the ensuing months.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Mark Samser with MST. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, guys. Congratulations, Meg. I've got 3 questions, if I can. But can you just provide a bit more I'm massively confused and I'm sure it's because I'm a simpleton on this Scarborough Contingent, the $1,000,000,000 payment.
Can you just confirm that is to BHP rather than BHP Petroleum, which you then inherit? And I'm really confused by the 15th December drop dead date on that. Why would you not just FID on the 16th and save yourself $1,000,000,000 Yes. Can you give us a bit of and is it cash or is it script? Can you just give us more clarity on that, please?
Yes. Look, let me try to Clarify that, Mark. So this is an option that we are providing to BHP Petroleum. So if we take a Scarborough FID Before the 5th December, it can only be exercised in the second half of twenty twenty two. The merger is expected to complete before that, at which point the option becomes a bit of a moot point.
And so the option really is included to allow BHP to take the project to FID. So they will make a major investment decision In an environment where BHP may not be wanting to invest significant capital in the BHP Petroleum portfolio. Now the project, of course, still meets our economic return hurdles with or without the exercise of the option.
Okay. Okay. So it's not an incremental cost 2 years was Woodside, it's just an insurance policy for BHP if the deal falls Correct.
And just to be clear, Mark, if that happens, for the $1,000,000,000 We get the 26% that BHP Petroleum currently holds in Scarborough. So, it would enable the project to proceed. We would have a greater equity stake. And of course, we've got a data room open now, which will allow us to test the interest of other potential investors in the upstream.
Yes. Okay, perfect. Next question, I'm sorry, mate, but I'm going to push you on the remediation costs because I mean, I think just for Gibson Basin alone, It could be a couple of $1,000,000,000 and it's I appreciate you said that's an issue for BHP. What that reduces by, but I guess I need to ask you the question, what does Woodside Pretty smart because frankly, I don't see how anyone can remotely profess to take a call on the valuation of this transaction Without knowing that remediation number given it is given the nature of these assets such a disproportionate number. So is there any light rather than the BHP question, can you shed any light on the Remediation costs you expect to come on to your balance sheet when the deal completes?
So look, Mark, we've had very extensive due diligence. We do decommissioning ourselves, so we understand what that sort of work should cost. We've dug deep into BHP's work. We've I will review the operator's work. So the cost of decommissioning has been fully accounted for in the value of the transaction.
It would probably be premature for us to comment as to how much of that will go on to our books. So that will work that will progress over the coming months. But The costs, we think we have a good assessment of the cost of decommissioning, and it is accounted for in the transaction.
Yes, okay. I'm being unfair and you make on your first day as full CEO, but I think it's really hard for you guys. You might feel comfortable, but I don't know how the equity market does Good afternoon. And I guess just one last question for now. I might hop on the back of the queue and ask some more.
But you talked about $400,000,000 a year of synergies. And I noticed The exploration spend is listed as one of those. Now I could be weird and certainly not to achieve, but to the predecessors of Woodside and say We spent $400,000,000 a year on exploration and achieved nothing with it. So removing that is technically a $400,000,000 synergy that achieves no value creation. Can you give us some disclosure on how much of the $400,000,000 a year you see coming from exploration savings?
Look, Mark, it's probably premature to comment on the specifics. When we look at the combined businesses, we see opportunities in the corporate We see opportunities in the assets. When we look at the growth hopper, there's going to be synergies and there's going to be projects And investments that we deprioritize and of course exploration will be taking a look and asking ourselves how do we We identify future investment opportunities and what's the right mix of exploration for hydrocarbon opportunities versus Other sorts of work that we might do to bring new energy investments into the portfolio.
Okay, cool. Thanks, Maggie. Congratulations again.
Thank you, Mark.
Your next question comes from Tom Allen with UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, Meg, and congratulations again on your appointment. Just Following up a couple of questions again on remediation obligations. It is obviously a very important question for Equity Markets. Just can I just add on, Will BHP retain any liability for decommissioning as part of this arrangement?
So the way the transaction is structured, Tom, is it is It's a merger between Woodside and BHP Petroleum, so we're taking everything that BHP Petroleum is responsible for today.
Okay, okay. And just being crystal clear that you're saying today also in regards to your Scarborough FID Recognizing you'd have pro form a much lower gearing, you're saying that the Board might be willing to take an FID on This calendar year with 100 percent exposure to the upstream?
Look, Sam, we've got a data room underway, And we've got a number of very interested parties in there. What we've settled along is we view selling down Pluto Train 2 As a condition precedent to a final investment decision, but we will be opportunistic on selling down Scarborough if it delivers value to our shareholders. And we've got the number of players in the data room as we speak. We'll wait and see what the offers look like, but I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll find some
Okay. Okay. And then just on regarding your commitment to maintain the same emissions reduction targets on the new broader business. So I saw there on Slide 7, you're suggesting that you'll need to procure quite a few offsets. Can you share some detail on what offsets you'll seek there from what markets And what it might cost in order to make that significant offset commitment?
Yes. So we actually stood up a carbon business in 2018 to Really build our capability both in generating offsets ourselves as well as acquiring offsets. And we've got a long history in this space. As part of the Pluto development, we made a commitment to invest in offset programs. So we've over the last decade spent more than $100,000,000 Across Australia and a variety of tree planting programs.
So we've really built out our capability, particularly over the last couple of years. And as I said, we've got enough offsets So in our accounts, to cover the needs of the shared portfolio to 2025.
Right. All right. Thanks, Ming.
I'll jump back in the queue. Thank you.
Thanks, Tom.
Your next question comes from Dale Konders with Berenjery. Please go ahead.
Congratulations, Meg, on your appointment and congratulations, Richard, to you and the Board on a transformational transaction.
I was just hoping you
could provide a little bit Color on the merger ratio, the $52,000,000 and how this is impacted, if at all, by Woodside share price Performance over the next 12 months, I. E, the merger based on fixed value for the petroleum asset, or is it now fixed relative to Woodside. And cash flows from BHP Petroleum as well as Woodside Dividends given the effective date from July 21 versus closing Q2 2022?
Yes. That's a great question, Dale. One of the fundamental principles of this Transaction is that the merger ratio was based on a fair value assessment of the 2 portfolios. So we've done a Ground floor work to really understand the business, the BHP business and to understand the Woodside business. We've set the ratio based on those fundamental principles.
And the real view to that is that You think about the commodity we're producing as the price moves up and down the relative weighting of the 2 portfolios really is pretty close to constant. So the $48.52 is fixed and as our share price floats with commodity pricing that merger ratio stays firm.
And how does cash flow adjustment from effective date to close impact?
Yes. So the effective date is the 1st July this year. So obviously, as cash is being generated in the BHP portfolio, that's going We transfer across to us at the time of close.
Okay. And then just finally pushing on Mark Samter's question on the $400,000,000 of synergies. Can you give us a view of the percentage that's actually going through the P and L versus That will drive earnings accretion versus there's obviously exploration, which may or may not be expensed at some point in the future.
Look, probably the best way to answer that, Dale, is as we look at cash flow per share, we see this being cash flow per share accretive starting in 2020 So we do have a plan that we've mapped out to get actual costs out of the business and to be able to start to see that return for shareholders The 1st year after the deal completes.
Okay. So I'll have to wait and see the color later in the documentation. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Doug Engelbrell Brown with Maple Brown Abbott. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Mick, thank you for clarifying that $1,000,000,000 Scarborough option. My heart rate has gone down slightly. Thank you also for giving us a vote on this. Can you just clarify whether it's 50% or 75% required from us to approve the deal?
Thank you. It's
a 50% pass mark.
Thank you. Nice for the questions.
Your next question comes from Saul Kavonic with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Thanks, folks. Thank you, Meg, and congratulations again. I've got a couple of questions here. One is that look, there's very little on value in this presentation. We're trying to get our head around it.
When you say no premium is paid here, could you give us an indication perhaps when you say no premium paid, are you talking about no premium paid based on Woodside's market cap? Or are you talking So, previously based on Woodside's view of its own assets and BHP's own assets according to your own internal assumptions and valuation metrics on the DCF
Yes. Look, Sol, as I said, the merger ratio reflects the relative net asset valuation The 2 respective portfolios. So we built a model of BHP's portfolio and our own portfolio. BHP, of course, did a similar exercise. That was all informed by very extensive and deep due diligence.
And the 50 two-forty eight merger ratio is a ratio that both parties believe is And again, the beauty is it's not linked to any particular oil price. It's not linked To any particular share price, we've tested the merger ratio across a number of different sensitivities and The merger ratio is very sticky at 52.48%.
Understood. Perhaps another way of looking That is I've got to phrase this. If we've got a long term oil price consumption applied by these Kind of deals. I mean, in essence, I think it's a view by some shareholders in Woodside, Woodside trades significant discount to what its full value is. Are you suggesting that Therefore, you've acquired the BHP assets at a similar full discount to what the full value is versus You're paying Woodside's script at a discount for a full value of BHP asset.
Yes. It's our market cap is a bit academic actually in this exercise because the merger ratio was set based on relative net It's because the merger ratio was set based on relative net asset valuations. And that's That calculation is done by putting together discounted cash flows of the 2 portfolios and looking at those values over time. And as I said, We've tested it against current oil price, a high oil price, a low oil price and the ratio is very unmovable across price, which I guess is the benefits of the fact that we're both in the same commodity.
Thanks. Just perhaps another follow-up question on the decommissioning. Appreciate you don't want to give us a number, but perhaps could you just give us your view on the decommissioning cost that you say is priced into this? Would you consider that a conservative cost? Do you think on balance you're going to be able to find ways to defer that and decrease the cost?
Or do you think this is Scott risk that it could go up and become earlier on balance?
Saul, of course, we're a very experienced operator in this space. The best rate business is run by 2 very capable Investors between ExxonMobil and BHP, we know they've got a very rigorous decommissioning plan. We had a chance to really dig into that in our due diligence. So we'll work very closely with the operator again post completion to make sure we've got our arms around it, but we feel good about how we valued
Thanks. And my last question is just on The whole Scarborough situation with the $1,000,000,000 payment, just to be clear, is there now a finalized whole agreement? Can BHP still refuse an FID? How exactly does this option lock in Scarborough regardless of whether the merger proceeds or not?
Look, obviously, until we complete the deal, both companies will continue to operate independently. One of the things that I think this The merger agreement does is it really solidifies both parties' commitments towards taking that final investment decision in the second half of this year. Now the auction, of course provides a bit of an out for BHP if the merger is, For whatever reason doesn't progress and Scarborough FID is taken if they at the end of the day decide this is not something that they want in their portfolio. But again, we look at the total value for our shareholders from the investments. We see tremendous arguments for advancing Scarborough votes for Woodside as we stand today and for the merged company as we would stand next year.
Thanks. I'm going to be taking speak one last one in. Just on your production profile of the Woodside base business, you've got Woodside production declining From my eyeball 120,000,000 barrels in 2024 to about 80,000,000 barrels in 2027, that's a pretty steep decline compared to I think what Woodside put out as production Forecast in the past, what's driving that decline?
It looks like I probably wouldn't get my ruler out over that. That's a bit of a stylized cartoon, But it's indicative. Obviously, we've got Northwest Shelf has gone into decline now. We've got a number of assets. You'll recall, of course, that Sangomar starts up in 2023.
So in 2024, we have a full year of Sangomar production. So there's a variety of ups and downs.
Great. Thank you very much. That's all from me.
Your next question comes from James Redfern with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, Meg. I'm also going to say congratulations on your appointment CEO and the transformational transaction. So apologies everybody. Look, a lot of my questions have been So ready, but maybe just two questions. Meg, assuming the merger goes ahead, Woodside will have roughly 34% in equity in the North West Shelf.
I'm just wondering, does that not change the thinking around Scarborough, potential tons and fuel gas on the North West Shelf And then Scrapping Pluto Train 2. And then I've got one more question, please. Thanks.
Yes. So thanks, James. Look, our teams have looked very closely at the options for processing Scarborough Gas many, many times. We are firmly committed to the plan to take Scarborough Gas to Pluto Train 2. The Developments gives us the greatest certainty for delivering return to our shareholders.
It is a cost efficient and Particularly a carbon efficient way of developing the resource. So even with the bigger equity stake in Northwest Shelf, we don't see a compelling reason to delay the project by potentially 2 years.
Okay. Thanks. My second question is just how is Woodside thinking about potential flowback of shares that are issued to BHP shareholders who decide that they don't have their own shares in the merged company Next year, either due to their mandates not allowing us to invest in oil and gas companies or for UK based BSP shareholders who can't Invest in Australia. How is Woodside thinking about potential overhang or flowback of that share post the transaction?
Yes, it's a great question, James. So we've done a bit of flowback analysis. We actually see that BHP's shareholder register It has significant overlap with Woodside's register. There's also folks who are in BHP today who hold other energy companies and don't hold Woodside. So we I see them as attractive potential future investors.
With respect to the listing indices, we will remain ASX listed, but we are exploring the opportunities for London or New York listing, if that's going to be compelling to keep high value shareholders on our register. But when we do the math, we actually see higher demand for Woodside shares than we see leaving BHP. So I guess I'd say now is a great time to buy.
Okay. Very good. Thanks, Mig. Thanks, Sherry.
Thanks, James. Your next question comes from Nick Burns of Yarden Australia. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks. And I'll join the line as everyone congratulating you, Meg, on getting the CEO position, so well done. Look, first question from me. Just in relation to the shareholder approval, will it be an independent experts report release
Yes, there will Nick.
Okay. That's easy. Just and then in your presentation, you've got Sangamah at 82%. Has your thinking changed here at all with this proposed merger? Can you retain 82% through from this point?
Or are you still looking to settle it down?
Yes. Nick, we actually have a data room open for Sangobor as we speak. So we are continuing to progress an opportunity to sell down our Ideal Equity, as we've mentioned in the past, is in the 40% to 50% range. So we would like to bring other investor into that opportunity with us. The question, of course, will be to make sure that, that is value accretive for our shareholders.
But for simplicity, the stack, the way it's been put Together shows that we actually can continue to fund Sangomar at 82%. And when you think about the near term production growth that offers, That's also going to be accretive for our shareholders. So we'll see how the sell down process goes and we'll decide what's the best outcome for our investors.
Right. Look, just one more for me. Just help me sort of think through this scenario with Scarborough. So You transaction of this option in place with BHP Petroleum, you acquire their site, you move to 100%. Hypothetically, you could move ahead with FID at 100% if Woodside shareholders don't approve the merger in Q2 next Yes, you could find yourself with potentially 100% upstream of Scarborough having to potentially pay BHP for their share.
Would that put pressure on you to raise equity at that point in order to retain a BBB plus credit rating? And I guess, therefore, that provides an additional incentive for Woodside shareholders to actually approve the merger at that point?
Look, Nick, there were a lot of ifs in that statement.
Fair enough.
A lot of hypotheticals. So one thing To note is the option does not kick in until the second half of twenty twenty two. So I think we'll have had Signals before then as to whether or not there was risk of the transaction not completing. But the other thing to bear in mind is we have a data room open now To sell down our stake in Scarborough, and one of the things we'll want to talk to prospective buyers about is, whether or not they'd want to take a bigger stake. So we'll be Looking at options to make sure that we don't end up in the situation that you described.
Got it. Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from Daeven Moore with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just wondering
on the $400,000,000 of savings annually. You've had a few questions on this already, but Meg, can you Talk about maybe Woodside's share of that $400,000,000 annually. Is there targets where you think Buckets where you see you could allocate some of that $400,000,000 just across the Woodside portfolio. And then I was just wondering, now you are A larger shareholder in Northwest Shelf JV. I mean does that change your strategy going forward with that asset?
Or is it still largely a focus on run
Look, on the synergies question, it'd be premature to try to talk about how those are divided at this point in time. Obviously, as we move closer to Completion and day 1, we'll be able to provide more granularity, but I think it's a bit too early at this point in time. Northwest Shelf, Northwest Shelf, obviously, has a long history as a 6 party joint venture. It's taken us a bit of time to Get our minds as a group around transitioning from a fully owned and operated facility to a facility that tolls gas. We crossed that bridge late last year with successful agreements with Pluto and Waitsia.
And I think all of the parties in North West Shelf are committed So finding new ways to utilize that infrastructure. I think it makes life a little bit simpler having only 5, but the commitment of the parties Finds new guests to go through remains.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Daniel Butcher with CLFA. Please go ahead.
Hi, Megan. Congrats on me too.
Just want to follow-up on
a couple of other people's questions if I can. Perhaps you could just say in terms of the Sangamo being at 82% and so forth, Can you maintain your dividend at current level of sort of 5 plus percent and internally fund all the growth projects including Tryon And Scarborough, at this stage, under your current assumptions?
Look, Dan, it's probably too early to say that. What we've really In the very near term is our ability to with the additional cash flow that we get from the merger to be able to both fund our near term Developments which are in the business plan, so that includes Scarborough, that includes Shenzhen North, And be able to return value to our shareholders throughout the cycle. Developments beyond that, really, We need a bit more time to progress that. But we do fully recognize, Dan, that our shareholders value the That our Australian shareholders in particular value the franc dividend, and we do want to make sure we continue to return value to our investors over the Course of the investment cycle.
Great. Thanks. And with regards to discussions with
S and P or the sort of shadow rating agencies at the banks, What are the key issues I've thrown up or key moving parts that I'd see addressed as you go through that process?
Look, it's very early days. Obviously, we've just announced the merger today. We've had only preliminary discussions with the ratings agencies, and We'll keep you apprised as we get more information. But I think it's pretty safe to say, and if you look at the slide that shows cash flow, That we are much stronger together. So cash flow is stronger.
Our balance sheet is in better position. Our gearing is reduced. So our ability to fund investments both And the planned activities as well as new energy investments is much stronger. So we see this proposal as one where we are much better together than we
Thank you. That does conclude our question and answer session. I'll now hand back to Meg for closing remarks.
All right. Well, thank you, everyone, for taking time out of your evening to participate on this call. Tomorrow morning, we will release our half year results and hold another teleconference,
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.