Chrysos Corporation Limited (ASX:C79)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Jul 27, 2023

Operator

Limited Q4 Fiscal Year 2023 Quarterly Update. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Dirk Treasure, CEO. Please go ahead.

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

Thanks, MJ, for the introduction. Good morning, shareholders, welcome to our June Quarter 4C Investor Update. Today, I'm joined by Brett Coventry, our Chief Financial Officer, who's dialed in from our newly established operations in Ghana. We've recently established our first PhotonAssay unit in Ghana and are in the process of installing a further two in the coming months. Together, Brett and I will be running through an operational and financial report for the quarter, as well as providing some insight into the full year as we close out FY 2023. We'll also talk through our FY 2024 guidance, which we're excited to be in a presentation to present.

After the presentation, Brett and I will be available for a Q&A. Please ensure you're dialed in rather than connected via the web link if you'd like to ask a question. Slide three, please, operator. Chrysos has closed out another year of exceptional growth. We've seen our global footprint expand across three continents, where we've solidified our position in each of these key markets. Our team has more than doubled in size from 55 at the end of FY 2022 to 116 at the end of FY 2023. We've doubled the number of deployments from 10 to 20. We've increased our revenue from AUD 14.3 million to AUD 26.8 million.

The way that we look at Chrysos at this stage of our evolution is that we're building a solid foundation in each of our key regions, which will provide support for additional PhotonAssay units to be deployed going forward. We've seen the introduction of regionally based deployment teams, maintenance teams, and technical support. These functions are now clearly established around the world and support our business for our FY 2024 objectives. Returning to the quarter just past, we've had revenue growth of 27%, supported by our growing number of deployed units and an increase to our Additional Assay Charges during the quarter.

We processed almost a million samples during the quarter, which is an increase of 20% on Q3 FY 2023. Just as an interesting statistic, our first million samples took us two and a half years to achieve, and we're now processing this many on a quarterly basis. We've converted AUD 6 million of our total contract value into revenue during the quarter and have identified, along with our laboratory partners, the deployment location for several of our outstanding units. We look forward to deploying our second unit in Tanzania and our first into Guinea with MSA LABS. Look forward to establishing our operations in Ghana with Intertek.

Our cash position at the end of the quarter provides us with substantial capital to deploy additional PhotonAssay units. We also have AUD 21.5 million in undrawn debt from the Commonwealth Bank. Continue to develop our financing opportunities, both domestic and abroad. Our contracted number of units stands firm at 49, including the 20 currently deployed units. We have commitments in place for a further 29 units. Considering that our manufacturing and deployment capacity now stands at 18 units per year, which in of itself is a major milestone for us, we have confidence in our near-term deployment pipeline and continue to develop deeper relationships in the industry to support our mid to long-term pipeline.

We ended the year with 20 units deployed, following the installation of two units during the quarter. As we outlined in our last release, we did have some delays to our 21st unit, which we'd hoped to install during last financial year. This unit is still expected to be operational during Q1 FY 2024. Importantly, we're increasingly confident in our ability to deploy at least 18 units during FY 2024, based on the establishment of our globally distributed deployment teams. The end of FY 2023 marks the end of our prospectus forecast period, and we're very happy to report that both revenue and EBITDA exceed the forecast that we provided.

We've had a slight uplift on our revenue from a forecast AUD 26.6 million to AUD 26.8 million achieved, and have announced that our EBITDA for the year is expected to exceed the AUD 3.2 million that we'd forecast, with the final number to be announced in our annual report, in our annual results in August. This is a huge milestone for us, closing out a massive period of growth for the company, where we've achieved our financial targets and laid the groundwork for our ongoing growth. I'm extraordinarily proud of the achievements of our growing team. Slide four, please, operator.

Brett Coventry
CFO, Chrysos

Thanks, Dirk. It's great to be talking to the continued growth of our business, particularly our team, having achieved the forecast set out in our prospectus. This slide we're looking at now is a strong visualization of that growth. Quarter -on -quarter, we can see the improvement in Minimum Monthly Assay Payments, MMAP, which is the monthly take or pay amount due from our deployed units. We can also see the Additional Assay Charges, the amount we charge for each month for Assay over the minimum amount, the Assay payment, and for this quarter being 12% of revenue.

Other income here is jar sales, which is something we've identified not to continue into FY 2024, as we've been able to firm up the direct supply to our PhotonAssay clients. Noting that coming into this new financial year, the baseline revenue from MMAP is now AUD 31 million, a strong growth base to be growing into FY 2024. Slide five, please. With a further two units deployed last quarter, the global fleet of PhotonAssay units continues to be expanded. It was great to see ongoing increases in quarterly samples, with a 20% increase on the previous period and overall utilization remaining slightly above prospectus forecasts.

We do expect to see fluctuations in the utilization rate as we deploy more units reflecting the ramp-up from installation and some impact of industry cycles. Of course, remembering we have the MMAP as a baseline revenue floor. Slide six, please. On the left, you can see a selection of clients we're proud to partner with. On the right, the TCV, or Total Contract Value graph. As we touched on in our release, we are retiring this metric. It was important to us early in the business life cycle, but we before we had a substantial lease base.

However, as we continue to grow the deployed units and the business overall, TCV no longer provides the best reflection of our commercial and operational status. We will retire this metric with AUD 702 million of revenue to be unwound from the current 49 contract signs. Slide seven please.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by while we reconnect our speaker lines. Thank you for standing by. We will now reconvene our meeting.

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

Apologies for that, everyone. It's always ironic when a technology company has tech issues. Slide seven, please, operator. With the onset of FY 2024, we're providing company guidance for revenue, EBITDA, and the number of units deployed. Our FY 2024 revenue guidance is a range of AUD 48 million-AUD 58 million, which is an increase of almost 100% on the FY 2023 numbers at the midpoint. Importantly, we're removing provision of consumables from our forecast and are instead facilitating direct relationships between our jar suppliers and our PhotonAssay customers. This allows us to step away from the administration of jar supply.

The provision of jars was a strategic choice to ensure that while we had a limited number of suppliers, we'd be certain of ongoing jar supply, which are basically required for every sample processed by our customers. We've recently established a third supplier and are looking to add another over the coming year, but we're effectively now confident of ongoing supply, and this will no longer be a revenue stream for us. Accordingly, the revenue range of AUD 48 million-AUD 58 million reflects only PhotonAssay revenue made up of the MMAP and AAC, and the revenue forecasts reflect an increase of 115% on FY 2023 PhotonAssay revenue at the midpoint.

Our FY 2024 EBITDA range is from AUD 7 million-AUD 17 million, and I'd like to take a moment to address the breadth of that range. Our underlying business model is to deploy units to our customers and charge a Minimum Monthly Assay Payment. In addition, we're paid a per-sample fee by our customers when they exceed their minimum commitments, leading to Additional Assay Charges. An ongoing increase of combined minimum payments is within Chrysos's control, as it largely relates to the ongoing service of our existing units and deployment of new units during the year.

The AAC, or Additional Assay Charges, is heavily influenced by factors outside of our control, such as mining exploration investment in catchment areas surrounding our laboratory partners. For Chrysos, our unit operating costs are only nominally impacted by unit throughput. This means that a unit operating at 60% effectively doesn't cost us more than a unit operating at 50%. You see that translation directly through from the range of revenue through into our EBITDA range. Finally, from a guidance perspective, we've outlined that we expect to deploy at least 18 units during the financial year, and this will bring us to at least 38 operating units by the end of the year.

We've started FY 2024 with the right teams in the right place to deliver on this target, with no further growth required within either our own deployment teams or within our manufacturer to achieve this 18 per year. Slide eight please, operator. Coming back to quarter. Chrysos has had another quarter of strong and sustainable growth. We've continued to increase our deployment unit base from 18 to 20 during the quarter, with each of these units adding to our Minimum Monthly Assay Payments going forward. We've achieved full year revenue of AUD 26.8 million, exceeding our prospectus forecast of AUD 26.6 million. Also confirmed that we expect EBITDA to surpass the AUD 3.2 million outlined in the prospectus forecast.

For the full year FY 2023, we've been operating cash flow positive to a total of AUD 4.2 million, all of which we're investing to grow. The last two quarters have been impacted by a reclassification of inventory on our balance sheet, as well as use of a prepayment to settle a customer invoice as per the terms of that contract. We fully expect to remain cash flow positive during FY 2024. Our FY 2024 deployment schedule is well supported by our 49 contracted units, which have 29 outstanding deployments, which extend well into FY 2025 . We continue to expand our relationships within the mining and laboratory industries to support our future pipeline growth.

We're well funded for sustained growth, with substantial cash on hand and available debt totaling AUD 75 million. In closing, it's been a great quarter for Chrysos, an outstanding first year as a listed company, and I'd really like to thank the entire Chrysos team for their contribution. We'll now move to a Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. The first question tonight comes from Josh Kannourakis from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Josh Kannourakis
Founding Principal and Co-Head of Emerging Companies & Technology Research, Barrenjoey

G'day, Dirk and Brett. Can you hear me okay?

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

Yeah, we've got you, Josh.

Josh Kannourakis
Founding Principal and Co-Head of Emerging Companies & Technology Research, Barrenjoey

Perfect. Thanks, guys. A few questions, just guidance and then one on demand and one on the sort of supply side. Firstly, just following on from your comments on guidance, Dirk. When we look at that range, obviously it's a big one, but like, can you give us a bit more context of maybe how much of that variability is around the Additional Assay payments versus maybe, you know, deployment timing? Maybe just how we should sort of think about the waiting of deployment, unit deployment timing into 2024, based on, you know, obviously what you know now.

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

Yeah, absolutely. Let's kick them off one at a time. The deployment timing, my comment there about actually having the teams already available and prepared to be deploying 18 units per year, as at the start of FY 2024. Read between the lines a little bit, but it's pretty much for us, it's gonna be spread throughout the year in a consistent fashion. I think that sort of, that addresses that one. With regard to the EBITDA range and the effect of the additional assay charges, largely that range is dependent on that. We have a pretty firm handle on our deployment capability.

You know, having now deployed 20 units, we're deploying into the same regions that we've already deployed into. You know, if you consider that last year we expanded into a whole lot of new countries and locations that we were quite new to operating in, this year is a slightly different story. The only new region that we're really expanding into is South America. For us, there's now a bit more certainty on timing and ability to get these units deployed on time and allowing the conservatism that we need to ensure that we're hitting that 18 units during that time as well, which then means that really that range is largely dependent on the AAC.

Josh Kannourakis
Founding Principal and Co-Head of Emerging Companies & Technology Research, Barrenjoey

Got it. The way to sort of read that then, is that at effectively at your, you know, Minimum Monthly Assay Payments across that with a relatively even schedule, that you're at, you know, effectively at the sort of, you know, AUD 7 million EBITDA into that range, incremental to that is the volume that obviously people are, you know, tracking above and beyond, you know, that range is the sort of incremental to that.

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

That be a fair sort of assessment.

Josh Kannourakis
Founding Principal and Co-Head of Emerging Companies & Technology Research, Barrenjoey

Okay. All right. Understand. Just on the cost side, maybe on that as well, like, how is that sort of shaping out? Like, in terms of the range of outcomes there, are you pretty comfortable in terms of the unit economics, in terms of the original sort of thought process around return on invested capital and the cost per unit, operating cost? Is there anything that sort of changed your thought from those initial sort of high rates of return, that sort of discussed that prospectus and more recently, should I say?

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

Yeah, good question. Brett, did you want to jump in?

Brett Coventry
CFO, Chrysos

Yeah, I was gonna say, I'm happy to jump in there. You know, Josh, you know, the same principles that as we came into prospectus, they still apply. As we've spoken about for the last year, you know, we've had a good, long-term position with our supplier, so we're not seeing a material increase or in our deployment costs around the units. In terms of our people, we're obviously, you know, growing in line with the expectations and, you know, those return on invested capital around the unit is, you know, still our expectation. Obviously, the other piece that we're working towards now is being in similar locations in terms of deploying additional units into regions which we already are, and then seeing some improvement in the economic returns around that as well.

Josh Kannourakis
Founding Principal and Co-Head of Emerging Companies & Technology Research, Barrenjoey

Okay, got it. No, that's really helpful. Just moving on to the demand side. Obviously, you've got, you know, visibility into FY 2025 in terms of that rollout, and previously you've sort of talked to still trying to keep a, you know, a firm pipeline, you know, keep that sort of rolling out. How should we sort of think about, I guess, the next six months in terms of, you know, contract announcements, what you're working on, and maybe just give us some more context on the demand side of the equation for the business?

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

On the demand side and with respect to the pipeline, we've kind of stuck to the same line of a 15–18 month pipeline is optimal for us. The reason for that timeframe is that gives us support for the manufacturing side of things. You know, we've got an 18-month delivery cycle here as well. It gives us support on that side, and it just means that we're not trying to sell a product to an industry and saying, "You're not gonna get your equipment for two years or three years." We've picked 15–18 months as the optimal timeframe.

Right now, with 29 contracts to deploy and an 18 per year deployment capacity, you can sort of see that we're still a little bit beyond that pipeline. I mean, the optimal for us sitting right here is 23–27 units, is that 15–18 months on an 18 per year deployment pipeline. We consider the pipeline to be very strong. Within that, where there's a lot of news coming through that isn't necessarily new sales, but you've seen things like the locations that we're deploying some of these units to. You know, we've just announced that we're going into Geita Town with MSA LABS, which is obviously right next to Geita Mine, run by AngloGold, up the road from our Bulyanhulu operation.

We're firming up the locations of all of these deployments. At the same time, we've had things like Barrick taking another unit to Bali. While those aren't new sales for us above and beyond the 49, it's us working directly with our laboratory channel partners to make sure that we've got the right locations to deploy all of the units that we have in our pipeline. Going forward from here, the intention is certainly to maintain this 15–18 month pipeline. You can imagine that as we go forward and we deploy another six units, that's the point where we would start to be wanting to see replacement of that number of units in the pipeline to keep that same 15–18 month profile.

Josh Kannourakis
Founding Principal and Co-Head of Emerging Companies & Technology Research, Barrenjoey

Dirk, the ones that are sort of, I guess, you know, do you have people sort of waiting there? Is there a waitlist? Maybe just to give people a context, I mean, historically, there's always been, you know, there's been no sort of issue, certainly on the demand side of the equation. Do you still have, in terms of that pipeline and filling that, just maybe to talk about, you know, your confidence of being able to get, you know, those people once that timing comes? Like, what are the conversations? What sort of the visibility you've got into that next leg of either customers or existing ones that are gonna take more within, once that pipeline's taken up?

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

Yeah, look, very, very comfortable. I mean, essentially, every year that we go forward here and every region that we have expanded into, is providing more and more confidence around the technology and just that sort of industry application and acceptance of the technology as well. You think every JORC report that comes out, every NI 43-101 report that comes out makes it easier for the next CP or QP to sign off on their MRM on their resource report. As we go forward, if anything, it's that adoption and acceptance is continuing to increase. We have every confidence that we'll keep the pipeline filled at that level.

Josh Kannourakis
Founding Principal and Co-Head of Emerging Companies & Technology Research, Barrenjoey

Yeah. No, that's great to hear. Final one, just on supply. Obviously, you've got a lot of confidence, and you've sort of said, I've just noticed a sort of subtle wording around at least 18 units into next year. Is there any potential on the horizon to uplift that if the demand side equation sort of supports and your sort of, you know, overall infrastructure of the business can support a sort of step-up in, you know, going above and beyond 18? Maybe just to remind us of what would have to happen for that to be the case.

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

Yeah, look, the 18, at least 18, is worded quite carefully. Look, it does take into account the conservatism that we need to have around deployment timings into some of the more complicated countries that we work in. You know, allowing for shipping timings, internal transportation, actual installation timings, et cetera, et cetera. That's just making sure to say to the market that we are confident of the 18, and there is opportunity to go a little bit beyond that. With regard to sort of ongoing growth from here, it's certainly made up of a few different items.

I mean, one is obviously strength of the pipeline, which I've commented just there, that we're very comfortable with, and we continue to see the pull from the industry. It's these foundations that we need around the world to ensure that every one of our units that's deployed is doing exactly what it should be. You know, it's building up those service and maintenance teams. You know, we've just opened a 24/7 support hotline for our quality assurance, quality control samples. We've got real-time, 24-hour monitoring now of what's going on with all of our units around the world.

These things, the establishment of them, then make it much easier to deploy additional units into the regions in which we already operate. I commented right at the start that the way that we look at the business as we are at the moment is building those foundational blocks to support our future growth. You know, and that's not to say that we're coming out with an expansion at this point, but it's certainly something that we entertain the idea of going forward.

Someone actually mentioned this to me very simply the other day: If you take a TAM of 610 units around the world and a unit lifetime of 20 years, then simply to keep that TAM with units at the end of the period, you need to be deploying 30 units a year. Again, we're not sort of guiding to any of that at the moment, but we are working in an absolutely massive, total addressable market, and certainly with an eye to the future, but a focus at this point on building those foundations.

Josh Kannourakis
Founding Principal and Co-Head of Emerging Companies & Technology Research, Barrenjoey

Great to hear. Thanks for taking my questions, guys. Appreciate it.

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

Welcome, Josh.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Treasurer for closing remarks.

Dirk Treasure
CEO, Chrysos

Thank you, MJ. It really has been an outstanding quarter and full year for the company. We've grown so used to annual exponential growth that it's become a part of the cadence of our business, and we consider it to be business as usual. When we put in these reports, quarterlies, full years, half years, it's actually nice to look back and consider what we've achieved and what we've delivered upon. Thank you all for your continued support, and I look forward to providing our next update, corresponding with our annual results.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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