Coronado Global Resources Inc. (ASX:CRN)
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Apr 30, 2026, 2:39 PM AEST
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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Feb 19, 2024

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Coronado Global Resources Full Year Results Presentation. All participants are in listen-only mode. There will be a discussion of results from the CEO and CFO, followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to introduce Andrew Mooney, Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead.

Andrew Mooney
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Coronado Global Resources

Thank you, Operator, and thank you everyone for joining Coronado's Full Year 2023 Investor Call. Today, I am joined by our Managing Director and CEO, Douglas Thompson, and Group CFO, Gerhard Ziems. Today, Coronado released its full-year financial results to the market, including its Form 10-K Annual Report, full-year earnings release, and results presentation. All of these materials are available for free on our website at www.coronadoglobal.com. Within our presentation, you will see our important notices and disclaimers and reconciliations of non-US GAAP financial measures. We encourage you to review these statements, as well as our other filings with the ASX and SEC. I remind everyone that Coronado quotes all numbers in U.S. dollars and metric tons, unless otherwise stated. With that, I hand over to Douglas.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Thanks, Andrew. Coronado Global Resources achieved strong operational gains in 2023, resulting in improved ROM coal production performance and improved safety results that ultimately saw the business deliver the second-highest annual group revenue in the history of the company. Our team made notable progress in optimizing our business and marked several milestones that has us firmly on the path to achieve our future production target of 20 per annum by 2025. In 2023, we remained focused on maximizing the potential of our existing assets without the need to raise additional capital or debt. We have invested strongly in our Buchanan and Curragh Complex and achieved some significant milestones.

At Curragh, we have completed the recovery of historic deficit pre-strip waste, and the record total waste movement achieved last year has decongested the pits, improved the mine's overall pit geometry and striking, which enhances dragline performance in 2024. With this milestone achieved, our team is concentrating on improving efficiencies and cost reductions, which will see us remove three fleets in the first quarter of this year. At Buchanan, our team brought into production the newly developed Southern Longwall District. This marks the completion of the development of this new longwall section, the associated ventilation shafts, and the installation and commissioning of all the new longwall equipment.

This new southern district at Buchanan and the completion thereof and bringing operation into operations, we are fully focused on the next key milestone, that being the construction of the second set of skips to debottleneck production, and thereby capitalizing on the productivity gains now available to us by having two distinct, fully equipped longwall districts. Additionally, the Curragh Underground Project continues to mark all set milestones and is expected to produce first coal in December, subject to approvals. In 2023, our emission reduction projects progressed to plan. Given the success of our first VAM unit we commissioned in 2022, we are constructing a second VAM unit, which is expected to come online at Buchanan in mid-2024, thereby ensuring that Coronado has proven tangible and low CapEx projects to honor our intent of a 30% emissions reduction by 2030.

These improvements have provided a solid platform for the year ahead as we target higher production rates, lower costs, and improved margins. Before Gerhard and I elaborate on the financial results and forward plans of our business, I'd like to discuss our safety results. Our total reportable incident rate for the year was 0.77, compared to 1.41 in 2022. This reflects a 45% improvement year-over-year and is our best performance since the company was listed. In both our Australian and U.S. segments, I'm again pleased to advise that the safety performance continues to remain well below relevant industry averages, with an 80% improvement and a 36% improvement realized over the last three years from Australia and the U.S., respectively.

These are strong results, and I congratulate our teams on their safety performance, but I remind all the task of improving safety is never done. Turning to the next slide. It is the fundamental focus of the board, the executive, and the entire Coronado team to generate shareholder value. Our shareholder value proposition is supported by three pillars, under which we have made significant strides in 2023. Met coal is a critical mineral. Our commodity touches every aspect of society and is key to the renewable energy transition. And met coal is in a market which is in structural shortfall of supply, and the pace of change driven by the energy transition is set to exacerbate this shortfall. As a result, Coronado is extremely well-positioned, given our long-life assets, to take...... of 41 million tons.

Number two, since its inception in 2013, the Coronado team has a proven track record of successfully integrating, operating, and developing new assets that have delivered substantial returns to shareholders since listing in 2018. In 2023, we continued the trend with investment in our operations and our strategic growth projects. The payback on investment at Curragh is evident by the step change in costs that will come from removing three truck and excavator fleets, and the increase in waste movement by our four draglines. Dragline cost per ton is far cheaper than truck and excavator cost per ton. To drive Curragh further up the value curve, we have implemented a restructure of the mine into three distinct operations to drive further operating simplicity and result in productivity gains.

The completion of the development of the new southern district at Buchanan will see cost reductions and improved efficiencies in 2024. We also continue to execute our organic growth plans at Buchanan and the Curragh Underground. These underpin our 2025 production targets. Pillar three, our commitment to prudent financial management and a strong balance sheet ensures we maintain a sustainable business. Throughout 2023, we maintained a strong balance sheet that has funded our organic growth pipeline without the need to raise capital or further debt. Our ongoing commitment to being a responsible custodian of the resources we own is evident in our track record. In 2023, we continued to make tangible progress on our ESG initiatives, by completing additional rehabilitation works and investing in emission reductions technologies. So what does this all mean for shareholders in the near term?

In short, our business is targeting higher tonnages, lower costs, lower capital expenditure, and higher margins over the next three years, that we believe will substantially be sustainable into the future. The investments we have made to date, and continue to make in accordance with our well-advanced plan, is bearing fruit. Our fully funded underground at Curragh and Buchanan works will deliver more tons to the market. Our cost per ton will fall, given the forecasted higher met coal production rates and the improvements we've already implemented and will be implementing at each of our sites to improve productivity. Our investment in organic growth remains committed and fully funded from the cash flows generated within the business. These investments are well advanced, and we expect to see a return to a capital profile more weighted to sustaining in the near term.

This all translates to higher margins, higher free cash flow generation for our business, all of which is within our control. In addition, we have line of sight to the completion of the existing Stanwell agreements, that we forecast will deliver substantial value uplift late 2026. These gains for our business are set against the backdrop of higher-for-longer met coal prices. The Coronado team, the board, and I are excited to execute upon our plans to deliver substantial returns to shareholders. I'll now hand over to Gerhard to go into more detail on the company's results and market outlook.

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Thank you, Douglas, and hello, everybody. Today, I will go into a bit more detail on our financial results for the full year, capital management strategy and plans, and also elaborate on what we are seeing in both the met coal and steel markets in the short and longer term. So on page 10 now, Coronado's capital management strategy focuses on four key pillars. Number one, maintaining a strong balance sheet with enhanced liquidity and prudent debt levels. And number two, delivering shareholder returns. Number three, prioritizing organic growth expenditure to increase existing production rates, improve efficiencies, and boost margins. And then number four, ensuring we retain the financial flexibility to pursue acquisitions of high-quality met coal assets when they become available.

So Coronado closed 2023 maintaining a strong balance sheet, despite the impacts to steel and met coal markets from global economic headwinds, including high inflationary pressures and high interest rates, in addition to higher Queensland Government royalty rates. Our business maintains healthy liquidity levels and is investing in our organic growth plans from cash generated from our existing operations, without the need for additional capital. Our capital management strategy will continue to apply in 2024 as we continue our growth investment mandates from the board, that will then translate to higher production, lower costs, higher margins, and ultimately higher shareholder returns over time. Turning to our 2023 results on page 11. Our company generated group revenues of $2.9 billion, the second highest in history.

91% or more than 91% of our revenues were generated from met coal sales, and we realized an average met coal price across all of our products of $216 per ton, reflecting a mixture of FOB sales and then FOB in the U.S. particularly, and domestic price arrangements in the U.S. While revenue was the second highest in history, it was lower than the record levels set in the prior year given average met coal prices 19% year-on-year. We closed the year out with adjusted EBITDA of $382 million, and a net income of $156 million.

Within these numbers, our business paid $630 million or close to AUD 1 billion in corporate taxes, government royalties, and rebates, that substantially added to our operating costs. On Slide 12, we generated $268 million in operating cash flows in 2023, that directly funded our growth projects. Group CapEx was $228 million, and we closed out the year maintaining a healthy liquidity position, with available liquidity of $489 million. Our business held higher than normal inventory levels at December 31st 2023, with a closing inventory balance of $192 million, 22% higher than 2022. With higher stock port stockpiles due to port congestion at year-end. Most of these stockpiles have been moved as we sit here today.

In quarter one this year, we made a potential additional payment to the Queensland Government for assessed stamp duty related to the acquisition of Curragh from back in 2017. So we may make this payment, that's not clear. The balance of payment is approximately $54 million, based on a determination from the Queensland Revenue Office. We are currently considering our legal options on this matter, but are required by law to make a payment before commencing any appeal process. Slide 13. Today, Coronado's Board of Directors declares a biannual 40% franked fixed dividend of 0.5 cent per CDI to shareholders in accordance with its dividend policy. The dividend record date is 12th March 2024, and payment date will be April 4th 2024.

The declaration of today's dividend does not require a matching senior secured notes purchase offer. It is made with the confidence that a strong balance sheet is retained. We continue to pursue our growth opportunities, and in order to provide the company with maximum flexibility to achieve this strategy, only declares a biannual fixed dividend at this time. Subject to the delivery of our strategic growth plans, ongoing operational performance, and market conditions, the board may determine to declare special dividends as the year progresses. Turning to slide 15. Now let's shift gears and discuss what we are seeing in the met coal and steel markets now. Here at Coronado, Steel Starts Here is our motto. The inherent chemistry of steel production requires both mined iron ore and metallurgical coal commodities.

And it is these commodities that underpin existing steel uses, such as for automobiles, transportation, infrastructure, and buildings, among other things. But steel is also a critical commodity in the development of all low carbon technologies, including hydro, wind, solar, nuclear, and electric vehicles. We have shown this slide many times before, but it continues to ring true. Per McKinsey Research, steel is the number one critical commodity used in the development and advancement of renewables for a low carbon future. On slide 16, steel is used in almost every aspect of the world's infrastructure. In 2023, total global steel production from the blast furnace process was 1.3 billion tons. This level of steel production sustains current infrastructure development, but the ever-increasing demand for renewable infrastructure will further drive increased demand for steel.

To produce 1.3 billion tons of blast furnace steel, one billion tons of mined metallurgical coal is required, making met coal a critical material for the renewable transition. And in fact, met coal has been reaffirmed as, as a critical raw material by the European Union to help build the world's infrastructure needs and renewable energy transition. Slide 17. Good McKinsey market research indicates that total global crude steel production is forecast to increase by 17% to 2.2 billion tons from by 2050. And the method of generating will overwhelmingly continue to come from blast furnace methods, primarily in Asia, which rely heavily on met coal supply.

In Asia, currently, 81% of steel production comes from blast furnaces, and this is only predicted to fall to 62% by 2050, with very optimistic hydrogen replacement outlooks, in my view. This underpins the need for high-quality met coal for the next 20 years plus, not only in Asia, but globally. Slide 18. Given these forecasts for steel production, I can reiterate to the market that Coronado is well positioned with reserves in the top metallurgical coal locations in the world. We continue to maintain long life operating assets in excess of 20 years, and met coal resources exceeding two billion metric tons, based on today's latest JORC reserves and resources update we have released. The strong reserve and resource base underpins our position as a long-term, sustainable supplier of high-quality metallurgical coal for the years to come. Slide 19.

Our geographically diverse asset base is located near key rail and port infrastructure, providing access to both domestic and seaborne markets. Our broad range of met coal products produced from our Curragh Complex in Queensland and our Buchanan and Logan mines in Virginia and West Virginia in the United States are well established and highly valued for their attractive coke making characteristics. We maintain a diverse, high quality customer base across a range of global markets, but Asia remains our number one destination for Coronado Met Coal. Our key export destinations in Asia are India, Japan, South Korea and China. Slide 20. Met coal prices in 2023 were lower than prior year, due to generally lower global economic confidence, inflationary pressures, and rising interest rates.

The average benchmark Australian premium global hard coking coal index price in 2023 was $296 per ton, down 19% compared to the average index price of $364 per ton in prior year, in 2022. However, despite the fall in prices, the average PLV index price remained firm throughout the year and remained well above the historical average of $197 per ton. Since September 2023, the Australian PLV index has improved, primarily due to a combination of continued tight supply from Australia, which was impacted negatively by wet weather and reduced port throughput in Queensland, and heightened demand from Indian and Asian steelmakers, who were restocking from lower inventory levels.

Despite the improvements in the PLV index, PCI coals have been trading at a much larger discount, given the Indian and Chinese markets continue to import discounted PCI and lower grade met coals from Russia. The global economic environment and soft steel demand outlook continues to put pressure on steel margins, with steelmakers continuing to make lower demand through lower hot metal production and reducing demand for raw materials. Despite end user demand weakness, Coronado anticipates that market optimism stemming from an improving global economy, and the Chinese government's easing policies and expected new stimulus post Lunar New Year celebrations, will assist in improving steel prices and margins.

We expect that continued strong demand from China and India will keep met coal prices supported in the first half of 2024, particularly given Australian supply remains constrained by wet weather in the Bowen Basin, as well as ongoing port constraints. And forward curve, the forward curve estimates are projecting Australian index prices just under $300 per ton in FY 2024, and then even reaching into 2025. Turning to slide 21. Global economic confidence is projected to return in the midterm, which will underpin infrastructure projects requiring steel. India, one of our largest markets, is forecasting GDP growth rates north of 6%, with most other key markets, excluding China, forecasting modest growth rates between 1% and 3%.

While GDP rates in India are at 6%, steel production increases are even higher, with steel production increasing by 12% in 2023 from 2022 levels. Over the long term, Indian steel growth is projected to increase by 277% to 531 million tons by 2050. These growth projections bode well for us, given our large long life reserve base and our significant exposure to India. Slide 22, looking at met coal markets longer term. AME forecasts indicate that a 70% increase in global export demand from met coal by 2050. As you can see in the chart, the majority of demand growth is planned to come from blast furnace steel production in India.

India export demand is forecast to increase by 283% by 2050, the majority of which will need to be filled by supply growth from Australia. But as we have stated previously, it is difficult to see how that supply will materialize and match demand, given the limited approvals for new mines in the high quality met coal regions of particularly Australia and North America. In order to meet projected 2050 demand levels, AME forecasts that met coal production from Australia will need to nearly double from existing levels. But we foresee an approximately 145 million ton shortfall in met coal supply by 2050. A lack of supply, therefore, should ensure higher prices for longer, which places more emphasis on companies like ours to continue operating and developing long-term, long-life assets.

I now hand over to Douglas to discuss 2024 initiatives, guidance, and investment plans. Douglas?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Thanks, Gerhard. In 2024, Coronado is guiding for sellable production between 16.4-17.2 million tons. Mining costs between 95-99 per ton, and capital expenditure between $220-$250 million. With several milestones achieved in our business plan, we are guiding for higher sale production levels in 2024. Production is expected to increase in the U.S. post the investment and development of the new southern district at Buchanan, and similarly at Curragh, with significant works that has been completed in recent years to recover historic pre-strip deficits. And combined with anticipated fewer wet weather impacts, we see higher production at Curragh. Mining cost per ton sold is expected to decrease due to higher production and the elimination of three contractor fleets at Curragh.

Capital expenditure levels are expected to broadly align with 2023, given our continued investment in our well-advanced growth projects. As a business, we have four strategic priorities that will not only ensure success for our business in 2024, but also into the future. Firstly, the health and safety of our people remains our highest priority. Secondly, asset optimization of our high-quality asset base will be achieved by our focus on the drive and delivery of operational and commercial excellence. Thirdly, delivering our growth plans. We have significantly progressed our organic growth projects at Buchanan and Curragh, and investment and investigations into opportunities for incremental organic growth beyond this in the near term. We continue to be alert and inquisitive about inorganic growth opportunities as they present themselves. Fourthly, capital management.

Our ability to achieve asset optimization and strategic growth is underpinned by our focus to maintain a responsible capital management strategy and strong balance sheet. Now I'll address our operational focus areas and priorities for 2024 by segment, and I'll start with Curragh. In January, we announced internally the restructuring of the Curragh Complex, splitting the operations into three distinct units: Curragh North, Curragh South, and Curragh Underground. This operating restructure is the final step in the One Curragh plan that has seen Curragh optimize the mine plan, remove complexity, and enable growth. Streamlining structure provides greater oversight of operations that we anticipate will translate into improved efficiencies, higher productivity rates, and lower costs.

The benefits targeted in 2024 from the works achieved to date include: As previously announced, we will reduce our truck and excavator fleets from 16 to 13 in the first quarter of 2024. The improved ratio of waste movement by our draglines will increase to 44%, up from 37%. Additionally, Curragh has plans with further contractor and procurement initiatives to reduce costs in 2024. Incremental growth at Curragh also remains heavily in focus, with a continued investment in our underground projects and our gas projects. Turning to slide 26, the Curragh Underground Project remains on schedule, subject to approvals. The project underpins the strategy to deliver saleable production of 13.5 million tonnes per annum from the Curragh complex by 2025.

Coronado has extensive experience in underground mines, having operated longwall and border pillar operations in the U.S. for many years, and we are leveraging the experience of our CRO, Jeff Bitzer, and his team, to develop this project. Our business is targeting first coal in late 2024, and will ultimately produce 1.5-2 million tons of metallurgical coal per year from this new mine. Substantial drilling works that I mentioned earlier have been completed, and this has proven 41 million tons of reserve of high-quality met coal, similar to the quality that exists at Curragh North Open Cut presently. The project cost for the underground is expected to be in the second quartile, and this will average down the group's costs per ton. We are currently procuring the necessary equipment and progressing the government approvals.

Turning to the next slide, it's important to remind the investment community of the substantial valuation uplift to our business that will be achieved once existing Stanwell coal supply agreements expire. As a reminder, the current Stanwell agreements are a legacy. We inherited these when we procured Curragh back in 2017. To summarize the existing agreements under the supply, coal supply agreement, Curragh supplies Stanwell Power Station in Queensland, approximately three million tons per annum of below-market-priced coal. In addition, we pay a rebate, akin to a royalty, for a certain percentage of volume of all export coal sold. Coming late 2026, early 2027, these arrangements under the CSA will expire, and we internally estimate an increase of $290 million in our EBITDA as a result of this.

While we will retain a coal supply agreement for Stanwell to supply approximately two million tons at the end of the present CSA, we will now have an additional one million tons of export met coal to sell into the market, which will boost our revenues. Additionally, the Stanwell rebate will no longer be payable, substantially reducing our costs. So in a scenario, we were producing 13.5 million tons, with only two million tons going to Stanwell and no rebate expense, we're excited about the future margins to be achieved, particularly considering the projected future supply-demand imbalance that Jeff described in his address. Turning to our U.S. segment in 2024, our first production priority is to realize the improved flexibility and productivity gains at Buchanan, following the major milestone works recently completed by the establishment of the Southern Mining District.

We are expecting to see lower costs and higher productivities from the Southern District as the development costs are now complete. Conveyor distances are shorter, and the new district is closer in proximity to hoisting of people, material, and coal to surface. Capital works at Buchanan continued in 2023 on the construction of the second set of skips to ultimately increase the mine's hoisting capacity to surface. And we also progressed the investment in the new surface coal storage area to increase the mine's capacity. The completion of these projects is expected in 2025, and this will increase the sellable production from our U.S. operations to seven million tons per annum by 2025.

Additionally, we are undertaking a study to potentially implement upgrades to the Buchanan coal processing plant to increase throughput in mill, thereby potentially boosting the U.S. sellable production above the seven million tons we presently have in sight. Now, I'd like to talk about Coronado's rehabilitation and emission reduction products. The business strives to ensure that we meet or exceed environmental obligations, with the intent to restore the land to agreed rehabilitation and closure criteria. In the last two years, our business has completed 269 hectares of rehabilitation. That's 269 football fields. In addition, we have well-progressed rehabilitation at Curragh, with significant reshaping and topsoiling works completed late last year, and this area will be reseeded post the weather that has recently occurred. Turning to slide 36.

Coronado has tangible projects underway to reduce our emissions, as evidenced by the VAM units that we've implemented at Buchanan. The VAM project in 2023 has continued to prove success in reducing emissions from the mine, and given the success of this project, we commissioned the installation of a second VAM unit at our new ventilation shaft 18. Construction is progressing well and is forecast to be completed mid-2024. The establishment of the second VAM unit is expected to substantially reduce our emissions further, and this will put us firmly on our path to a 30% emission reduction, as targeted by 2030. At Curragh, we continue to make progress on our emissions reduction plans via the Curragh Gas Project. This project targets the capture and beneficial use of open-cut waste mine gas. These wells are now complete.

We finished that work in late 2023, and the surface production facilities are in store. I'm pleased to announce that these wells will become operational in late January 2024. With that, I'll hand over to the operator to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up your handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from George Eadie with UBS. Please proceed.

George Eadie
Metals and Mining Analyst, UBS

Yeah, thanks, Douglas and Gerhard. My first question is on mining costs. Taking the midpoint of 2024 guidance implies down 4% year-on-year in $ millions. So can we just unpack this a little more? With EAs locked in at sort of 4%-5% and total costs as a trend, not going backwards in the industry, can you help us get a bit more confidence in this improvement beyond just parking of gear and contractor rationalizations at Curragh, please?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

The step change that we've got is obviously the fleets that we're taking out of the operations. Those fleets have served their purpose. As I mentioned, the deficit waste that came from pre-COVID and through COVID, we needed to make the investment to recover that deficit waste. That project is now behind us, and that turns off these fleets, and that's a substantial cost that was in the business through last year. In addition, the development of the southern district at Buchanan, all the development work in that area, vent shafts and associated required setup for the southern district, didn't enjoy any production associated with that. So now that that development is behind us, production tons will flow as well. So those two are big step change costs out of the business, tangible step change costs out of the business.

Referencing our EA, we successfully signed a four-year EA last year at 4%, 3%, 3%, and 3%, which is a good outcome in the market. Then we've got a number of other projects afoot to reduce costs across site. And these include contractor rationalization, the way in which we house our people when they come to site, particularly here in Australia. That'll all bear fruit, and have been projects that have been afoot over the last year. And then the obvious other driver behind it is the denominator. With the increased production that we're gonna be seeing, the denominator changes the cost as well.

Operator

Our next question is from Chris Drew with Jefferies. Please proceed.

Chris Drew
Equity Analyst for Mining Sector, Jefferies

Morning, Doug and Gerhard. Thanks for the call this morning. Another one on the guidance, perhaps on the production side. You know, 2023, we saw weather issues, dragline failures, geotech issues, dealing with the waste movement catch up at Curragh. Lots of things sort of slowing it up a little bit there. It looks like you're going for about a 6% production lift on top of that in 2024. How should we think about this guidance? Is this, you know, in the past, it's been a little bit of a stretch to reach. Is this, are we trying to be a bit more conservative here? This looks like that increase, given all the issues through 2023, is not too substantial.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

We've been diligently executing a plan to set our assets up for the long term. The guidance that we've provided and the mine plans that underpin it reflect that. Clearly, wet weather and things beyond our control, like the derailment in quarter one in Queensland, and then the port challenges at the back end of the year, and then that amplified for all producers in Queensland by the unprecedented wet weather at the start of the year, and at the end of the year, the unforecasted wet weather, has impacted. So that is all being considered. Our mine plan considers changing trends in weather. We've accommodated that into our plan. The work that we've done in the Buchanan operations now puts that geotech behind us.

The Southern district is a new mining area, and the development of new panels, it's actually East 16 that we've moved into the moment, is well advanced, and we're not picking up the same geotech challenges in the development that we saw in East 14 and 15. So we believe those challenges are firmly behind us. The investment we've made into our major infrastructure tools, for example, our draglines. I think unfortunately, the propel challenges that we had on one of our draglines last year, set us back from a cost perspective, but particularly from a production perspective. The benefit of that will be born this year because we've now ahead of the curve on the maintenance on that dragline.

And the investment that we made through last year on the other two draglines will bear fruit, and we're already seeing that come through in the productivity and reliability of our dragline fleets. So all in all, we're quite comfortable with the guidance that we've given, as it's well supported by the plan and it's underpinned by these improvements that we've identified.

Chris Drew
Equity Analyst for Mining Sector, Jefferies

Great, thanks. So if I could also, just a couple of quick ones on the numbers for perhaps for Gerhard. Looks like there was a reasonable tax gain coming through in the fourth quarter. Perhaps just, what, what's happened there, and, and does that mean sort of lower cash tax payments might be likely to come through soon? And secondly, the stamp duty payment comments. Just some clarification, have you, have you paid that deposit you were talking about, or is that still to go out, and how much would you expect that, that to be ahead of taking the potential legal action there? Thanks.

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Yeah. So on tax, on the tax gain, yes, you're correct, you see that there. I think first of all, it's twofold. In Australia, we have made tax losses, but I think the big one here is really coming from the US. The U.S. incentivizes as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, incentivizes exports, and it's called the Foreign Derived Intangible Income, FDII, and so we benefit from this. As we export, we can claim tax benefits on our exported coal in the US. So that line is a combination of both. On the stamp duty, so far, this year, we have not made payments. We have made a small payment last year.

When I say small, it was about AUD 20 million based on what we believe we should pay. That was last year, in 2022. In 2023 or this, what I said before, we may have to make a payment in quarter one this year that relates to the balance between what we have paid and what the Queensland Revenue Office calculated we should pay. Now, that number is in dispute. We are seeking legal views on this, but even if we appeal, we will have to pay the balance first, even if we go into appeal. The question is whether we can put it on a payment plan, and you can imagine I'm working on this as we speak.

Chris Drew
Equity Analyst for Mining Sector, Jefferies

Yeah, sorry, that balance is about AUD 50 million?

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

That's $50 million about, yeah.

Chris Drew
Equity Analyst for Mining Sector, Jefferies

Okay, thank you.

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Or U.S. U.S.

Chris Drew
Equity Analyst for Mining Sector, Jefferies

U.S. Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Our next question is from Jim Xu with Barrenjoey. Please proceed.

Jim Xu
Mining Analyst, Barrenjoey

Morning, Douglas and Gerhard. Just another question on guidance. How has the year started in terms of costs, and what kind of wet weather have you assumed for Curragh, your 2024 guidance? Is it just based on a return to the kind of 10-year average rainfall, or does it assume another year of elevated rainfall?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Hi, Jim. Firstly, on the costs, as we've come into the quarter, obviously we've got these step changes that we're talking about, where we'll be taking out these fleets. So, they've started the year where they were operational, and then we're working through our obligations with our contractors to give notice and step the fleets down. But it also is important to our mine plan, and that cost will be out in quarter one, the end of quarter one. In the U.S., the development that we did last year was complete. We actually brought the southern district into production right at the beginning of January, so those costs are behind us.

And then with regards our planning, particularly around weather, we do use a 10-year long-term average like the industry usually does from looking at how much time would be committed by weather. But we have made allowances in the last couple of years, considering the last couple of years' impact with additional rain in our time usage model.

Jim Xu
Mining Analyst, Barrenjoey

... Okay, thank you. Then just maybe another question, just on slide eight, you've provided kind of the longer-term estimates of production costs and CapEx. Are you able to provide a bit more color on the split of growth in sustaining CapEx in 2024, 2025 and 2026? It just looks like it's a lot above consensus. And for the growth CapEx, is it, is it just the growth projects at Curragh and Buchanan?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

The growth is all the growth that we've got within the business that we're projecting over the next while. So it's considering the building of a new mine. And if you benchmark the costs that we're projecting versus our sustainable historically, and look, I don't want to give guidance, so we normally don't, but we generally say about $130 is sustaining. So if you're thinking along the terms of about $130. And then if you compare that against other projects, where we're bringing an underground mine of high quality met coal of about two million tons online for a capital investment to build a new mine at Curragh.

Building out the southern district at Buchanan, which will include now the completion of the Skips project, which is about 40% sunk on progress, and then we'll finish the sinking through the course of this year and equip that new shaft or the Skips into early next year. Then the completion of the additional storage surface areas and then associated costs for another one million tons of production out of the U.S. segment is a great return, and our board's excited about what we can bring from the return of these projects. You'll see the step down that starts and the return to more sustaining profiles. Once again, this is all funded out of the money we're generating out of the business.

We're growing the business to be a substantial player without having to go out and make substantial debt or buy at market multiples.

Jim Xu
Mining Analyst, Barrenjoey

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator

With no further questions in the queue, I would now like to hand the call back over to Douglas for closing remarks.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Well, everybody, I know that it's a busy couple of days for all of you, so thank you very much for making the time to join us. I'd like to take a moment to thank our employees, our contractors, and our partners that work with us diligently to execute the plans that we have. As a business, we've got a solid plan, it's a fully funded plan, and we're excited to deliver upon it and generate sustained returns for our shareholders into the future. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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