Coronado Global Resources Inc. (ASX:CRN)
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Apr 30, 2026, 2:39 PM AEST
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Jan 22, 2024

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Coronado Global Resources Fourth Quarter Investor Call. All participants are in listen-only mode. There will be a discussion of results from the CEO and CFO, followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Andrew Mooney, Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead.

Andrew Mooney
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Coronado Global Resources

Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for joining Coronado's fourth quarter investor call. Today, we released our quarterly report to the ASX and SEC, in which we outline our production and sales volumes, as well as other information related to our safety results, coal markets, and financial performance. A more detailed outline of our financial position and results will be released to the market on the twentieth of February with our Form 10-K and full year earnings release. We will convene another call then to outline in more depth our financial outcomes and forward plans. Today, I am joined by our Managing Director and CEO, Douglas Thompson; Group CFO, Gerhard Ziems, and our Chief Operating Officer, Jeff Bitzer. Within our report, you will see our notice regarding forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-U.S. GAAP financial measures.

We encourage you to review these statements in conjunction with our other filings with the ASX and SEC. I also remind everyone that Coronado quotes all numbers in U.S. dollars and metric tons unless otherwise stated. With that, I hand over to Douglas.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Thanks, Andrew, and hello to everyone. Thank you for making the time to join the call today. Coronado Global Resources ended the fourth quarter of 2023 with higher ROM coal and saleable coal production volumes compared to the prior quarter. The higher production rates were realized due to greater coal availability at Curragh, in accordance with the mine plan, following record waste movement and despite the substantial impact to all coal producers in Queensland from the severe weather events and rainfall during the months of November and December. I feel it's appropriate that we pause and recognize the communities and families who've been so heavily impacted by the devastating weather in Queensland in late 2023. Coronado will continue to support the communities and impacted employees as needed.

These significant weather events at Curragh deferred approximately 150,000 tons to 2024, and 120,000 tons was deferred at Buchanan due to the team slowing production in December to ensure we traverse a geotechnically challenging area safely by installing additional support. These rectification works were completed mid-December, and the longwall production returned to normal. Our quarterly sales profile at Curragh was further impacted by significant delays at RG Tanna Coal Terminal in Queensland. This was due to labor issues that saw ship schedules dramatically increase up to 40 vessels. The subsequent delays impacted our sales volumes for the quarter, resulting in the deferral of 5 vessels into 2024. Despite these events, operational performance exceeded production rates required to achieve revised guidance for 2023, and cost performance was on target, but for the port constraints and resulting in shipping delays.

Our group's run-of-mine 2023 production was 25.4 million tons, slightly up on 2022, and our group's saleable production was 15.8 million tons. It must be noted, inventory levels as of the thirty-first of December 2023 at Curragh remained above average, with approximately 650,000 tons of saleable coal on stockpile due to the aforementioned late in December wet weather and significant port delays. The quarter four continued to mark planned milestones as we marched ahead with our plan to build Coronado to be a +20 million ton producer. Notably, in the quarter, we achieved the second highest annual revenue result in the company's history. We finished the quarter and year with the group's lowest total recordable incident rate since listing, a rate of 0.77.

We continued to make substantial progress on our fully funded organic growth projects, which will see Coronado produce approximately 20.5 million tons by 2025. Both Buchanan and Curragh have achieved substantial milestones in our plans to ensure these fully permitted assets enjoy sustained returns and reduced costs. Buchanan has completed development works in the new Southern District. The new longwall equipment is now all delivered, and longwall mining has started in this new area in early January. At Curragh, we completed another major milestone under the One Curragh Plan by recovering historic pre-strip deficits. The additional fleets and associated costs will be removed in early 2024 in accordance with the mine plan. We've also made tangible gains in our emission reductions and rehabilitations plans. All of Coronado's fully funded organic growth plans, Buchanan's expansion works, and Curragh's Underground Project remain on target.

As we commence 2024, we are excited by both the short-term and long-term projections for the business. At Curragh, we will realize cost and continued improvement in operational efficiency benefits from our investment over the past two years. Curragh will remove three fleets that we mobilized to site to recover the pre-strip deficit, thereby reducing costs and resultantly, the cost per ton. With the longwall development works in the Southern District of the Curragh now complete, we'll be able to operate an additional underground district, allowing for more operational flexibility, and the development costs will now have longwall tons associated and reduce our cost per ton. The company continues to reinvest in growth of the business via organic growth plans. Our plans for first coal, subject to approvals from Curragh Underground, remain on target for late 2024. We also continue to make substantial progress at Curragh's expansion works.

What is important to note is that all our organic growth projects are fully funded from cash generated within the business. These projects are progressing as planned and on target, without the need for taking out additional debt or raising equity. These investments in growth to increase sales volumes of our highly sought-after met coals will drive enhanced returns to shareholders. Before I elaborate further on the results, I'll provide an overview of our safety performance. I'm again pleased to advise that recordable rates in both Australia and the U.S. continue to remain well below relevant industry averages. In Australia, the twelve-month rolling average of Total Recordable Incident Rate frequency rate, as at 31st December, was 1.83, compared to 3.92 the prior year. This is a 53% year-on-year improvement.

It also marks the lowest Australian rate since May 2018. Over the last three years, the Australian business unit's rate has improved by 81%, and in the U.S., the 12-month rolling average of Total Recordable Incident Rate, as at the 31st of December, was 1.44, compared to 2.42 the prior year. A 40% improvement year-on-year. The lowest U.S. rate since the mines were acquired by Coronado. At group level, the Total Recordable Incident Rate was 0.77, compared to 1.41 the prior year. This is a 45% improvement and the group's lowest since April 2018. I congratulate our teams on their safety performance in 2023, but I remind all, the task on improving safety is never done. Turning to our operational performance.

Coronado completed the fourth quarter with higher production volumes and stockpiles compared to the prior quarter. Group run-of-mine coal production was 6.1 million tons, up 3%, and group saleable production was 3.9 million tons, up 6%. On a full year basis, the group run-of-mine coal production was 25.4 million tons, slightly up on the prior year, and the group saleable production was 15.8 million tons, 1% lower than the prior year. Turning to Australia first. Curragh's run-of-mine production for the December quarter was 3.4 million tons, 17% higher, and saleable production was 2.7, 16% higher compared to the September quarter.

For the full year, Curragh's run-of-mine production was 12.8 million tons, 4% higher, and Curragh's saleable production was slightly more than 10 million tons, 2% higher compared to the prior year. Coal production rates were higher at Curragh during the December quarter, primarily due to the greater coal availability in accordance with our mine plan, following record pre-strip waste movement year to date, and the return on investment from the completion of planned maintenance activities at our two coal processing plants on this asset. The higher December quarter production rates at Curragh were achieved despite severe impacts from heavy rain to all coal producers in the Basin.

The town of Blackwater, near the nearest town to Curragh, received 314 millimeters of rain in the quarter, a record for a quarter based on statistics that is available, and the level of rainfall was nearly double the 10-year rainfall average for the area. The significant rain experienced in the March quarter and the December quarter, combined with the delays early in the year following the rain-related rail derailment on the Blackwater line and the mechanical failure of one of our draglines in September, which is now fully repaired and operational, have been key contributors to the lower production volumes and higher mining costs per ton compared to guidance. Despite the impacts in 2023, Curragh continued to execute to the mine plan, specifically relating to waste movement.

Waste movement was a record for the year in 2023, with 184 million tons moved. BCMs, I apologize, moved. Our team at Curragh will continue to implement the plan to ensure Curragh reaps the fruit from the identified productivity improvements relating to fleet rationalization, procurement initiatives, and cost management activities. At our U.S. operations, the run-of-mine coal production for December quarter was 2.7 million tons, and the saleable production was 1.2, both 10% lower compared to the previous quarter. The full year U.S. operations run-of-mine coal production was 12.6, 3% lower, and the saleable production was 5.8, 6% lower compared to 2022. The December production for the U.S. business unit was impacted by localized poor geological conditions at Buchanan Mine, particularly to the 14 E panel.

Our team slowed production in December to ensure we traverse this area safely, and production has returned to normal. The production impact in December deferred to 2024 was approximately 120,000 tons by these activities. The U.S. production levels are lower than the prior year due to the impacts from the geological challenges in 14 E panel, and the impacts of the rock intrusion in September. That slowed production rates and impacted yield from this area. Both these events have been successfully addressed, and normal longwall operations restored within the quarter. The completion of development of the Southern District in the quarter and the longwall mining starting in January 2024 is a critical step in Buchanan's expansion plans. Sales volumes for the group in the December quarter were 4.1. That's aligned to the September quarter.

Sales volumes from the Australian and the U.S. operations were 2.6 and 1.5, respectively. The sales profile for Curragh would have been higher in the December quarter, but for the impact of the heavy rain in the Bowen Basin in November, December, and the sales impacts due to shipping slippages and resulting in five vessels moving into 2024 due to port constraints. Ship queues at RG Tanna Coal Terminal in Queensland increased substantially during the quarter, from 20 vessels early October to approximately 40 vessels by late December. Vessels waiting times at the port increased from six days in October to approximately 28 days by the end of December. The extended wait times impacted Coronado's December and full year sales, and additionally increased our quarter four demurrage costs.

The increased vessel queuing caused by labor and skills issues at the port, and we remain keenly focused on the rectification plans that RG Tanna's management have committed to. Curragh's inventory levels at the end of the year remained above average, with approximately 650,000 tons of saleable product on hand due to these port issues. I'll now hand over to Gerhard, who'll talk us through our financial position and give us a bit of a market update.

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Yeah, thank you, Douglas, and hello, everybody. In 2023, we generated $2.9 billion in revenue, with 92% of our sales coming from met coal sales. The group realized met coal price for the year was $216 per ton, which let me remind you of FOB, FOR, and domestic U.S. domestic pricing contracts. And that equates to a 73% realization on the average Australian hard coking coal benchmark index for the year, which is aligned with prior year. So while our 2023 revenues are the second highest in the history of Coronado, they are lower than prior year due to 27% decrease in the premium global benchmark index during the year and lower sales volumes.

In the December quarter, group revenues were $668 million, 5% lower than the prior September quarter, due to a combination of significant port constraints and product mix that Douglas already referred to. Also, the sales profile for Coronado would have been materially higher in the December quarter, but for the impacts of heavy rain toward Queensland in November and December, and the sales slippage of 5 vessels into 2024 because of port constraints at RG Tanna. As of the thirty-first of December last year, Coronado had 432,000 tons of coal stockpiled at port at RG Tanna, given the loading delays experienced.

The mix of these tonnages is roughly 60% hard coking coal and 40% PCI, and that all will be moved into the first quarter, this quarter here. Well, look, I mean, these delays are unfortunate, but we expect performance to improve in quarter one, this year and more normalized vessel queue by mid-2024. So we're in contact with RG Tanna, probably weekly. I'm in contact with them weekly on this matter, and they've promised improvement. Turning to cash and liquidity, Coronado continues to maintain a strong balance sheet. As of the first December last year, we had a net cash position of nearly $100 million, and we maintained nearly just under $500 million, you know, liquidity.

Our net cash position is comprised of closing cash balance of $339 million, and then outstanding bonds totaling $242 million. In relation to our costs, full year 2023, average mining cost per ton sold for the group were $107.6 per ton. We have higher mining costs here per ton because of industry-wide inflationary pressures that should go away this year, but to a large extent, lower sales volumes. So if you look at sales volumes, which is the denominator in the cost per ton calculation, we have been impacted by the following five items here.

First, our Australian business experienced significant above-average rainfall in the first quarter 2023, combined with the effect of a train derailment on the Blackwater line that materially impacted production and sales. Second, the impact of adverse geological conditions at Buchanan and a mechanical failure on our Curragh dragline in the third quarter deferred production sales damages to subsequent quarters. Third, our U.S. business experienced poor geotechnical conditions at Buchanan in December that resulted in a 10-day outage of production. Fourth, Curragh experienced record December quarter rainfall, resulting in nine days of coal mining deferred. Fifth, logistics delays at RG Tanna due to labor issues and large vessel queues that deferred damages to 2024.

I'll just repeat what Douglas said before, you know, so on average, vessel queue went up from 6, the delays went up from 6 days to, more than 20 days now. In fact, if we go back half a year, it's probably moved two to four days average delay to now more than 20 days. Douglas mentioned this, of course, earlier, but, but for the port issues experienced at RG Tanna and the heavy November, December rain events combined, we would have met the revised cost and production guidance for 2023. So in terms of CapEx, our CapEx costs at $28 million within our revised guidance plans. As we have previously communicated, CapEx in FY 2023 was primarily focused on our organic growth, capital works at Buchanan and Curragh, with all projects on track.

At Buchanan, we have been focused on the investment in additional hoisting capacity and the new surface raw coal storage area to increase the mine's capacity and reduce the risk of the mine being stockbound due to any potential logistic chain delays. At Curragh, expenditure on longer lead items for the Curragh Underground mine have been incurred in addition to expenditure on the Curragh Gas Pilot Project. We will officially release our full suite of financial results, including EBITDA and net profit positions, to the market on 20th February with our Form 10-K. On that date, we will also provide market guidance for production costs and CapEx in 2024. So if you look at the coal markets now, both the Australian and U.S. met coal index prices increased in the fourth quarter.

The benchmark Australian Premium Low Vol Index average price was $333 per tonne, up 27% compared to September, for the average price of $264 per tonne. The benchmark hard coking coal U.S. East Coast Index was on average $264 per tonne, up 17% compared to the prior September quarter, which was about $226 US dollars per tonne. The increase in met coal prices, which began from mid-September, is primarily due to a combination of tight supply from Australia, which was impacted negatively by supply impacts related to Cyclone Jasper and reduced port throughput increases overall and high demand from Indian and Asian steel makers who were restocking from lower inventory levels, for the year.

The global economic environment and weak steel demand outlook continues to put pressure on steel margins, with steel makers continuing to manage lower demand through lower hot metal production and reducing demands for raw materials. Despite end user demand weakness, we forecast that market optimism stemming from an improving global economy and the Chinese government's easing policies and expected new stimulus, particularly in infrastructure and housing, will insist improving steel prices and margins. We expect that continued strong demand from China and India will keep met coal prices supported in quarter one, 2024, particularly given Australian supply remains constrained by recent weather events in the Bowen Basin, as well as ongoing port constraints.

Also can refer to the latest, you know, the monsoon that is expected on the coast, on the Queensland coast, that could impact infrastructure in Queensland. The SGX Forward Curve, as of late last week, is projecting benchmark prices of $300 per tonne in 2024 as an average. These price projections indicate a higher pricing environment for longer, and pricing environment well above the long-term average price of $197 per tonne, for some time to come. I now hand back to Douglas to discuss the status of our organic growth projects. Douglas?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Thanks, Mate. The investment we've made in our organic growth projects and emission reduction projects will underscore higher sustained returns to shareholders over time. Our growth projects at both Buchanan and Curragh remain on target, and are made with surety that these projects are fully funded from our existing operational cash flows, without the need to raise debt or further equity from the market. During the quarter, Buchanan completed critical longwall development works in the Southern District of the mine. As I mentioned earlier, these works will allow us to operate an additional underground district, allow for more operational flexibility because we'll be mining from both the north and the South Districts in the future, and the new longwall equipment and short conveyor systems will drive optimal performance from this new mining district.

We will also continue to invest in the construction of the new surface raw coal storage area to increase the mine's storage capacity, allowing for our longwall equipment to run at higher capacity. The scheduled completion of the excavation works is in April 2024, with a full project completion expected in early 2025. The team also progressed with the construction of a second set of skips to increase the mine's hoisting capacity to surface. These excavation works are well progressed and about 40% and on plan. Once complete, we can and will produce 7 million tons of saleable production per annum, and we have identified potential upside in this plan that we'll attempt to unlock further. Curragh Underground Project remains on schedule. During the December quarter, progress continued on the critical path requirements of environmental approvals and the procurement of the mining equipment.

Both of these have progressed well in the quarter, and the team, the project team, have begun transitioning to site to prepare the final pit and high wall location for construction works and development of key mining, operating, and management systems. Once this project is fully operational, it is expected that the underground will produce approximately 2 million tons per annum or annum of saleable met coal at a considerably lower cost, bringing the entire Curragh complex down the cost curve. Turning to our rehabilitation efforts in 2023. Our business completed 60 hectares of seeded rehabilitation at our U.S. operations, primarily focused at the Logan surface operations. At Curragh, rehabilitation works were also well progressed, with significant work completed on reshaping and topsoiling of land. But the seeding of this will be completed in early 2024, post the significant weather events.

Finally, turning to our emissions reduction initiatives. Given the proven success of the original VAM unit and the reduction of emissions at Vent Shaft 16, Coronado has commenced the installation of a second unit at Vent Shaft 18. Construction works are progressing well and are expected to be completed in mid-2024. The establishment of a second VAM unit is expected to substantially advance our aspirations to reduce our emissions by 30% by 2030. At Curragh, we continue to make progress on our emissions reduction plans via the Gas Pilot Project, targeting to capture and beneficially use open cut waste mine gas from our operations, with the primary downstream use being power generation or being used as a diesel substitute in our mining fleet. Gas well completions were finalized in the December quarter, and surface production facility installations were also completed.

Final site acceptance, testing, and commissioning is expected to be completed early 2024. With that, I'll hand over to the operator for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Paul Young with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Paul Young
Mining Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yeah, morning, Doug and Gerhard. Happy New Year. Thanks for the call. Just a few questions on the operations to begin with. Thanks. I guess with Curragh to begin with, I mean, you know, the wet weather and the challenges also at Gladstone, that it is what it is, and the whole industry is sort of being impacted by that as well. But just wanna dial into a little bit more on the waste movements and strip ratio, and the plan also around removing three of the fleets. Doug, maybe just starting with that. I think you've got 16 truck and shovel fleets between Curragh North and Curragh Main.

If you're removing three fleets, is there sort of any indication you can give us as far as the benefits are concerned with respect to, you know, absolute cost reduction?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Paul, we obviously want to be careful that we're not gonna give guidance on this call. That we'll be doing at the next call. I've also got the benefit of our COO, Jeff, who's with us, and Jeff, please add to any of the comments I'll make around this. Jeff is driving this plan at the moment. Stepping back, we've mentioned on a few calls, we've been investing in the mine by mobilizing additional fleet to catch up on historic deficits. Going back to COVID period, even to the Wesfarmers ownership of the asset was a deficit in setting the mine up to be a dragline-predominant mine. We needed to open up strike length for the draglines to get them to optimal performance, and then it was also getting pit geometry sorted, and there was a pre-strip deficit that we've been investing in and recovering.

So additional fleet has been mobilized. We're actually four fleets mobilized. We've already turned one off, the latter part of this year, and then the other three will come out in the early part of the year, according to the plan. And that's clearly step change events in cost. It's not only the contracted cost with those fleets that we've brought in, that once you turn them off, they come out. There's associated costs that go with it, of maintenance, camp facilities, and so on, that will be coming out of the cost profile. This is part of the One Curragh Plan that was always planned to occur. So that, that'll be the changes, and it'll be between both of the mines, Curragh Main and Curragh North. That capacity is now no longer required, and we'll be pushing volumes up on the draglines.

We've already seen the productivity improvements coming out of draglines, and there'll be further efficiencies. But also, now that we've got the space in the pits, with the pre-strip done, we'll be liberated to get productivity out of our fleets. Because, for example, we'll have fewer trucks running up the same haul routes, shorter haul distances, better dump stacking, that the mine design and plan now can deliver for us going from 2024 and beyond. So that, that's the big milestone, at Curragh from a cost perspective. The next big step will obviously be when the underground comes online. As I mentioned, the cost production out of that is, as per the material we put out with the announcement of the underground, will be substantially cheaper, and that'll bring the overall cost down of the asset once again.

Paul Young
Mining Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, thanks, Doug. I'll run some numbers on that. I think if I recall, you're sort of 40% dragline, 60% truck shovel. Can you what sort of percentage would this take, you know, taking three or four fleets? Would that like lift the dragline percentage to from 40% to 50% to 60%?

Jeff Bitzer
COO, Coronado Global Resources

It'll take your dragline, and then when I say dragline, we combine dragline, cast blast, those kind of things together. They're your cheaper production methods, but it'll take it to about 44%, and I think, last year was around 37%.

Paul Young
Mining Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, great. That's thanks for those specific numbers. Yeah, I'll move on from Curragh, the asset. Just on the port, Doug, and can I have you step through the demurrage that you incurred in the quarter? Is there any sort of sense you can give us around, you know, what demurrage costs might be for the next couple of quarters, assuming that, you know, it'll take some time to sort of remove that congestion and that stockpile?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Once again, Paul, don't want to go any guidance, but Gerhard has got his fingerprints all over this on weekly management. So Gerhard, I'll throw to you first, and then I'll add to anything you have to say.

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Yeah. So look, Paul, no doubt this has an impact on demurrage costs, but we are in contact with RG Tanna on how we can mitigate or eliminate the additional demurrage costs that are caused by the port, not by us. So too early to comment on it, but we are working on it.

Paul Young
Mining Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay, sorry, Gerhard, you're saying that the demurrage costs are borne by RG Tanna?

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

No, no. At the moment, that's very clear. It's worn by the shippers, but we are working with RG Tanna on mitigating that impact on us. I got-

So it's very early to comment on it, but legally, these port contracts are structured in a way that the shippers carry the cost.

Paul Young
Mining Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yep, understood. Okay, and last one from me, guys. Just the discussions with Sev.en GI, the new shareholder. Anything you can add there as far as, you know, if have you sat down, you know, talked to a new strategy or, or just how they can actually assist you on the go forward? Anything you can sort of provide, provide us?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Paul, this is a deal between our shareholders, and we've left it there. Our team has fulfilled their function in supporting the DD, and they're progressing their approvals. At this stage, EMG is the owner of the major shares, and our strategy as a team hasn't changed, nor will it change with the board.

Paul Young
Mining Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Okay. All right. Thanks.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

From both, for our plans.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Chen Jiang with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Chen Jiang
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Good morning, Doug. Thanks for taking my questions. My questions are related to the market. I understand you provided insights into the POV HCC market. I'm just wondering if you could provide some color on the widened coal-quality spread, which reflected in your price realization. You had a 60%, I mean, 40% discount to the index. When are we going to see the quality spread going to narrow going forward? Thank you. And also, sorry, what's the driver-

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Yeah, good question.

Chen Jiang
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

From when you talk to your customers, is that because the discounted PCI call from Russia, there's a surplus in the PCI market? Or, what you have seen or heard by your customers? Thank you.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Yeah, so you're pointing out the 60% realization in quarter four. Just let me remind everybody that across the year, we realized about 73%, like last year as well, and if I'm not wrong, similar range in prior years, you know, on met coal price realization. So it's a combination of impacts, you know, and you pointed one out, but let me also point out, as I always say, you know, when prices go up, then we suffer a little bit from price realization. So if you look at the quarter four price, it was about $336 per ton, whereas quarter three was only $264, so 79%. So it's like a 21% lower price. And as we always say, we realize the price is mostly from the price quarter.

So that's a big impact on that, much lower prices in, on price quarter. And then if you go to quarter two. It was even lower, you know, probably 30% lower than what we have seen in quarter four. So when prices go up, then we always see a lower price realization. On top of that, we have at Curragh, product mix of 60% hard coking coal and 40% PCI. So if you had sold this, our price realization would have been higher. And then in the impact that you mentioned, the issue of PCI market, you know, I right now sit about 52% of the premium lower benchmark, you know, historically 70, 73, 75%.

So that's a little bit stemming at the moment, simply because Russia is the biggest PCI exporter in the market. And they're selling at a discount, so there's not a lot of demand for Australian PCI that brings the realization up. We are not impacted by that at all, but if you look at the semi-soft, that's a very poor realization or that we're not impacted by it, but that sits in the 40s now. That's extremely low. But you can see that the benchmark is moving in a different direction to the PCI at the moment. But predominantly, as always, when prices go up, that's when our realization is impacted, negatively impacted on paper. Across the year, though, we sit at 73%.

Chen Jiang
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, thanks. Thanks for that, Doug. Maybe a follow-up, since you mentioned the PCI, because by looking at how PCI coal has been performing in the last six months, versus the hard coking coal rally or hard coking coal, and, you know, continue to stay strong. But PCI coal seems like in a different market. 40% of your coal from Curragh is PCI. Would you please remind us the coal quality from the U.S. and the benchmark we should be looking at? Should we compare the PCI coal, you know, with your coal from the U.S.? Thank you.

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Yeah, look, I mean, the U.S. is actually pretty good, you know. So if you look at our U.S. split, and we publish it, so I haven't got the numbers here on hand, but we publish this. You find the numbers. We have a mix of hard coking coal and then PCI, and then high vol, particularly High Vol A’s. I think our product that we sell as PCI right now in the U.S. is extremely popular, so it's very low ash. It's extremely popular in the market. It attracts, to be quite honest, very high premiums and probably has a potential to be linked in parts. It is linked to the hard coking coal indices now. So that's pretty good.

The other thing is, on the High Vol A's, I was not really a big fan of the High Vol A's, but it looks like they have become more popular, particularly in India. If you look at India now, I mean, 19% of U.S. exports nowadays going to India, which I heard of, you know, and, particu...

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the conference operator. We have just temporarily lost connection with Gerhard's line. We will just move to the next questioner. Your next question comes from Chris Drew with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Chris Drew with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Ladies and gentlemen, just the operator. Please hold while we get Gerhard back on the line. And now, Gerhard, your line is now reconnected. Please go ahead. Pardon me, Gerhard, your line is now live. Please go ahead.

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Sorry, I dropped off.

Operator

Thank you. Please, resume your question.

Gerhard Ziems
Group CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Hello, Am I online now?

Andrew Mooney
VP of Investor Relations and Communications, Coronado Global Resources

Yes, Gerhard, you're on. Operator, can we go to the next question, please?

Operator

Your next question comes from Lachlan Shaw with UBS. Please go ahead.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

Yeah. Morning, Doug, Gerhard. Thanks for the call. Happy New Year. A couple from me. Maybe just to start with, the issues at RG Tanna. You're saying that's expected to be resolved by mid-2024. Why the delay, and are there options— are there port options available?

Gerhard Ziems
CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Yeah, look, I think, let me respond to that. Look, that is more an issue for RG Tanna. What they're telling us is, there's now all the people in place, all the operator in place to rectify the issues. It should happen earlier. We are a little bit conservative here in mid-year. I suspect there's a good chance we can fix it in the early part of quarter two, or they can fix it in the early part of quarter two. There are alternatives that we, that we are discussing with them, but it's, it's premature. It would be premature to make it public. But there are alternatives where other ports are idling, and the government, and RG Tanna is government-owned, could divert ships to other ports with capacity.

We are in discussions with the government as well. You know, let me remind you every call we don't ship also doesn't attract royalty. So there's an impact on the government as well, and it's in the best interest of all to fix it. You know, there are potential solutions out there, but it's premature to nail that down on the score.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

Yep. Okay, great. Thank you. Next one. So just on the rainfall impacts, yeah, maybe can you talk to what you're seeing? I mean, we've got Tropical Cyclone Kirrily sort of barreling in and potentially spinning off a fair bit more rain in coming days. How, how are you prepared? How much buffer is there in the system in terms of water storages, you know, creek, river, pumping, all that sort of stuff?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Oh, welcome, and thank you for bearing with us while we had some technical issues on the line. With regards wet weather preparedness, unfortunately, I think everybody in the Bowen Basin has had a lot of practice with us over the last couple of years. In particular, the initiatives that we've put in place is mine planning, where we ensure that we've got high coal and low coal, a localized term or colloquial term we use in the mine, in the business, to ensure that if we've got rain, and we may have a pit that has water that comes in through the rain, we still want coal exposed on the upper benches, so we can try and get production flow and revenue flow continuing. So that's been built into the mine planning for a while.

We have, over the last couple of years, increased our wet weather allowance in the plan, so in our time usage model, we've allowed for more rain impacts, and that's coming to the mine plan for 2024. Again, we generally plan on a 10-year average, and we've recognized the more recent year impacts, particularly around first and last quarters. From an infrastructure perspective, we've invested in building a new outer pit dam over the last couple of years, so that gives us additional storage capacity that we can pump water out of our working areas away from, where we're conducting works, and store it, and then evaporate it, use it on our roads, use it in construction works. We've also upgraded all our infrastructure so we can move water around our assets far more efficiently. We're blessed with having two mines, Curragh North and Curragh Main.

The age of the mine enables that you've got pits that aren't operational, that we can move water to and get it out of our way in a speedy manner to recommence works. And then lastly, we do have permitting to release into the creeks. It's highly regulated. We've ensured that we've got the best technology on our release points to ensure that when the opportunity presents, we release water in a responsible manner into the river systems and get it off our sites. Drill and blast is generally one of the biggest challenges that one has in a mine plan, where you set up your drill and blast, you drill the ground, and then you have rainfall that impacts. The team have planned for that as well.

Regarding your point of the cyclone that's coming towards us, the challenge for the industry is gonna be wet on wet. Everything is saturated at the moment in the Bowen Basin. I think we're already at 30 mils, month to date. So more rain will be impactful. At this stage, we can't measure that, but I can guarantee you we're very well prepared, unfortunately, through the lessons over the last couple of years to manage these impacts.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

Yeah, Thanks, Doug. That's great detail. Maybe a last one before I pass it on. So just, just with the costs, just to come back to it, pre-strip fleet starting to demobilize, you know, dragline share of total material move rising. If we look at FY 2023 cost of $107 and FY 2022, $88, yeah, how close do you think you might be able to get FY 2024 down back towards, you know, below $100, towards $95, $90? Is that realistic, or are we still talking in an environment where costs are generally quite sticky?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

We don't want to give guidance. It wouldn't be, wouldn't be right. Sorry, Gerhard, I'll let, I'll let you go, but we're not, we're not gonna give guidance. As Gerhard said, we've seen inflationary pressures starting to release. What we pointed out is, in our mine plan, we've got these step change events where costs will be taken out. Obviously, removing these fleets and associated costs is a step change event. At Buchanan, we've been investing in development with no associated tons in getting the Southern District set up for the long-term future of the mine, so we have the North and the South. All of that had to get done, and now the associated development longwall tons will start coming through.

So we'll see a cost reduction there again. And then we have been managing our costs very diligently, and that will continue through into the year to come, with procurement strategies and cost out strategies that we've identified in our budget for the year. Gerhard, I'll throw you, mate.

Gerhard Ziems
CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Yeah, no, look, exactly like this. Listen, I think it's the key question is, does it come below 100? Yeah. I mean, that's definitely possible. Look at, just look at, the last quarter, you know, just the stockpile at RG Tanna. If we had shipped it all, we would be probably closer, way closer to guidance, probably $103-$104 per ton. And then if you take out all the geotechnical, mechanical, and wet weather issues we have seen, and then, plus the initiatives we, you know, we have put in place with the reduction of the three fleets, we will become way more productive. It's definitely possible to go below 100, even below the 95.

The 88, into the 80s would require probably—that's a steep task, you know, but the low 90s is possible. But we are providing guidance, we are providing guidance next month on this.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

I'll also call out with the investment that we've been making into the business for the long term. These fully funded capital projects that we're taking our own generated revenues and reinvesting in the business. The fruit from that will come, like the underground. Jeff and his team have built many of these operations in the United States in the past. We've got a team that knows how to do it, and they've costed it, and they know what the production rate's gonna look like as we launch the underground. Those initial tons will come at a much lower rate than our present production. So then again, in 2025, the 2 million tons will come and bring the whole complex of Curragh down again.

And then in 2026, as we've communicated previously, that's when our tonnage commitment to the power station steps down from 3 million tons to 2 million tons. That is a reduction again in cost, but also we'll get a revenue kick up, and that'll be another substantial adjustment to Curragh's profile into the long term. So we've got really exciting, well-identified initiatives that will take Curragh into a long-term sustainable cost curve.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

That's fantastic detail. Thanks, Doug. Thanks, Gerhard. Both, I'll pass it on.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Chris Drew with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Chris Drew
Equities Analyst, Jefferies

Morning, guys. Thank you. I did drop out earlier, so apologies if you covered this when you were talking about the pricing, but I just wanted to dig back into those realizations. I guess you flagged higher PCI in the mix out of Australia in particular. I guess that is your standard spec PCI. There's nothing in the quality of that PCI that we need to sort of think about? And then secondly, can you help us out with a little bit of commentary around what to expect in terms of that mix in the sort of current quarter? Should we start to expect it to normalize back towards more hard coking coal as you sort of destock some of those inventories, or will it remain sort of more elevated PCI for a little while yet? Thanks.

Gerhard Ziems
CFO, Coronado Global Resources

Yeah. So I think, as I highlighted earlier, and also the quality of our PCI, particularly out of the U.S., is so high that it is attracting a premium to the PCI indices. So no, we have no concerns about the quality of our PCI whatsoever. In fact, we attract a very high premium to these products. I think what I said before is, you know, what we see right now in the market is more like the market gets, you know, a lot of supply out of Russia in the PCI segment, and therefore, the relativities are down, you know. In terms of product mix, yeah, it will normalize.

I think, as I said before, you know, we had like, at RG Tanna, 433,000 tons of product at stock, couldn't get shipped, and 60% of that is hard coking coal. So it would have been skewed more towards, yeah, hard coking coal, if we had shipped it. Lastly, when you look at the product mix in terms of thermal coal, it's still way less than 10%. But part of the number that we see in this year is also impacted by agreements that we made in 2022, shipping met coal, if you remember this, high quality met coal into the thermal coal market because it attracted higher prices.

So there's about, I don't want to, b ut it's probably 300,000 tons or so of met coal that was shipped as thermal coal, and that kind of bumped up this thermal coal mix, you know. So that will normalize as we're in 2024.

Chris Drew
Equities Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Glyn Law cock with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

Morning, Douglas. I was just wondering if you could just shed a little bit more color around Curragh and the three fleets. Just, if the weather does continue to be quite wet, is there a risk that you have to hang on to those three fleets, and, and, and sort of what's the timing? Will we see the benefit of them disappearing more in the second half of the year, or should you see some in the first half? Thanks.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

The first part of the question is the easiest. The plan is to turn them off progressively into the first quarter. So according to the mine plan, those fleets will be turned off into the back end of the first quarter, later start of second quarter is our plan. The intent is, no, those fleets are no longer required. Demobilizing them in a systematic, planned way is our goal, because the pre-strip deficit has been recovered. The rain event at this stage shouldn't impact on the mine geometry of where we sit at the moment, and that the draglines can take on the additional volumes.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

Okay, that's good. And then maybe could you just shed a little bit more color around Buchanan? I mean, we sat here a quarter ago, and we talked about geotech issues, and you said they were behind us. We've now experienced them again in the month of December. Is this just the particular area we're in, or, you know, we're gonna be moving into a new area, I think you mentioned this year? So is that gonna be different, or is this just part and parcel now of, of Buchanan and the age of the mine and where we are?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

No, it unfortunately is part of underground mining. You do get intrusions. These are two different events, but they all were on the same panel. So, 14 E is the area that the longwall's been mining through. We knew that there was an intrusion from our development works, but the extent of the intrusion, as communicated, that came through in September, that slowed the production down. And we did that for a couple of reasons, is you don't want to damage your equipment as you mine through it, so that once you restart, you can launch again. And then the second is, when you're mining that much rock coming through with your material, you end up having material handling that you can bog your conveyor belts from that.

If you slow all of it down, you generally clear it quicker, and you can get up going a lot quicker. The team executed that plan, and pleasingly, it performed well. The geological challenges that we had in December was a fault area that we traversed, and we decided to slow down and bolt that area and secure it and make sure that it, it's safe for the operations, and did a full set of rectification works before we went on. 14 E is busy cutting out at the moment, and we're moving into the southern part of the mine of the new district.

I want to also point out that this northern part of the mine and the southern part of the mines will operate in concert, so our draglines, our longwalls will have the benefit of having two mining districts that we can set up and run them as efficiently as possible, with separate ventilation systems, separate material handling systems, so that we can get optimal performance out of both of the, the longwall and longwall mining districts, as we move in. And the benefit we're gonna reap going forward is all the development we've been doing over the last year or so in setting up the Southern District will now have associated, production tons coming with it and thereby reduce the cost of production. Jeff, anything you'd like to add?

Jeff Bitzer
COO, Coronado Global Resources

No, I think you handled that very well, Douglas. The thing, long story short, there is differences between the Northern District and the Southern District. The intrusions that we see in the Northern District, we do not see in the Southern District. The belt system from the Northern District is much longer than what we see from the Southern District. And also, the face width of the longwall panels in the Northern District are about 700 feet. When we go to the Southern District, they're 1,000 feet. So we see a lot of advantages and help as we progress into the Southern District.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

That's great. So, Douglas, can I just confirm then from those comments that, you know, the development work you've done in the south now, you know, obviously you can never be 100% certain, but it definitely looks like a lot of the issues we've just talked about aren't present in the south?

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

That's correct. One can never call out everything, but with the cover drilling that we've done and the development work that we've done, we know what the Southern District looks like, and we're well set up.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

All right. Appreciate it. Thanks very much.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Thanks, Glyn.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes the question and answer section of today's call. I'll now hand back to Douglas for closing remarks.

Douglas Thompson
Managing Director and CEO, Coronado Global Resources

Well, thank you, everybody, and apologies for some of the technical issues we had there in the middle of the call. Particularly Chris, for hanging on for us so we could answer your questions. Thank you for participating today. If you've got any further questions, as always, please don't hesitate to reach out to us through our investor relations team. Have a good day.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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