Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Incitec Pivot FY 2023 half-year results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there'll be question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I'd like to hand the conference over to Mr. Geoff McMurray, General Manager, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, welcome to Incitec Pivot Limited's 2023 financial half-year results briefing. I'm joined this morning by Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Jeanne Johns, and Chief Financial Officer, Paul Victor. The materials we'll be covering today have been lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange and can be found on the ASX and Incitec Pivot Limited's websites. At the end of the presentation, we'll have time for questions, and an audio recording of this presentation will also be available on the company's website after we complete today. I'd like to draw your attention to the disclaimer found on slide two of the presentation. Slide three contains important information about forward-looking statements. I encourage you to familiarize yourselves with the information on both slides. Before we move into the main presentation, I'd like to start with an acknowledgment of country.
I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land we are coming to you from today, the Bunurong Boonwurrung and the Wurundjeri Woi Wurrung peoples of the Eastern Kulin Nation. I pay my respects to the elders past, present, and emerging. Thank you. Now I'd like to hand over to Jeanne.
Thanks, Geoff. Good morning, welcome to everybody. I'm very pleased to be here today to announce IPL's half year 2023 results. Before talking about safety, I wanna provide a high-level overview of the key themes coming out of today's results announcement. We have made strong progress on a number of key strategic priorities and strengthened the positions of our privileged assets. We've also delivered a resilient result while navigating some short-term headwinds across our businesses, including a dramatic drop in commodity prices following last year's record levels and some challenging weather impacts. End markets fundamentals continue to be positive despite that recent volatility. The delivery of our strategy is setting up our business for growth in high quality recurring earnings with less commodity market and manufacturing exposure. Our position is supported by our robust balance sheet and a disciplined approach to capital allocation and management.
Turning now to safety and our number one company value of zero harm. Across the board, the trend has been very positive with improvements across all of our metrics, including lower severity incidents. Our strong results are a reflection of the significant emphasis that we have placed across our business on our safety refresh program called Safe Teams. At 0.67, our Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate is 25% lower than the same time last year and below our 0.7 target. Pleasingly, there's also been a significant improvement in process safety incidents, which are down 50%, and our strong environmental performance continues with no significant environmental incidents. We also achieved an excellent safety performance during the Gibson Island closure, and I'm very proud of how the closure was managed by our dedicated team.
Moving now to the significant progress that we've made on our transition to net zero. Our commitment to being transparent and having an open dialogue on climate change was clear earlier this year at our AGM, where our strategy was overwhelmingly supported. Almost 90% of our shareholders voted in favor of our progress on climate change. We continue to progress four significant decarbonization projects, which collectively would deliver in excess of 42% in greenhouse gas emission reductions against a 2020 baseline with our current portfolio. During the sales process, we will continue to progress a carbon capture facility at Waggaman, which will provide us access to decarbonized ammonia post the sale. At Moranbah, tertiary nitrous oxide abatement underpins our short-term 5% reduction target with installation on track for the first quarter of 2024.
We're continuing to work with our partners at Fortescue Future Industries on the conversion of our Gibson Island manufacturing plants to green ammonia, with a final investment decision targeted for the second half of this year. The federal government Safeguard Mechanism will provide us clarity to inform our pathway to net zero. On Scope three, we're making excellent progress focusing on supplier management to obtain theirs and their suppliers' actual greenhouse gas emissions that are essential for informing our Scope three targets. We will revisit our emissions reduction targets following the release of Science-Based Targets Initiative methodology for the chemical sector, which has been delayed and is now scheduled for early 2024. Turning now to an overview of our first half results.
We delivered AUD 552 million of EBIT, down 3% on the record result last half year, which was supported by almost unprecedented strength in commodity pricing. There were a number of moving parts in our results, including a range of external headwinds. We had a good result from Dyno Nobel, which benefited from a strong manufacturing performance at Waggaman. Weather did impact the explosives performance in North America in the first half. The fertilizer result was disappointing, with the combination of the wet weather and the sharp drop in commodity pricing impacting distribution earnings. Fort Hills delivered better volumes than the year before, they were not as strong as forecast, and we also had to absorb additional costs from third-party gas supply. We returned to a very positive operating cash flow of AUD 194 million.
This result underpins our ability to pay an interim dividend of AUD 0.10 per share, or a total interim dividend payment of AUD 194 million. We are committed to execute the previously announced AUD 400 million market buyback, this will commence as soon as we have an available trading window, and we will be targeting completion by the end of the calendar year. We continue to maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation. Our return on invested capital has improved from 10%-13%, or 19.2%, excluding goodwill, our balance sheet is in very good shape. While the first half's performance was impacted by some short-term headwinds, we have delivered a resilient result while making excellent progress on executing our strategy, we're well-placed to deliver an improved underlying second half.
I will now give an overview to the important progress that we've made on our strategic agenda so far this financial year in both of our businesses. The Waggaman sale agreement enables us to reduce future earnings volatility in line with our strategy, as well as crystallize the value of our Waggaman investment at a high point in the cycle, effectively monetizing our excess commodity exposure. We also agreed a strategic offtake contract with CF Industries at Producer Economics that will underpin further upside in DNA's future explosives margins, as well as provide security of supply. Separately, the team has done a great job providing for competitive gas at DNAP's key asset, Moranbah, through to 2037.
While the agreement remains subject to the satisfaction of a number of conditions, this is an excellent opportunity for competitively priced gas in the challenging gas market on the East Coast of Australia. It will underpin the cost position of Moranbah's privileged footprint. Coupled with the upside that will come from customer recontracting, we have a great platform to return our DNAP business to peak earnings, as well as improving returns on invested capital to an appropriate level. The integration of Titanobel is progressing well, with the acquisition delivering in line with the business case and extending our explosives footprint into Europe and the West African gold mines. In fertilizer, the Pertamina offtake agreement will provide both security of supply and shortened supply chain to service our Australian farmers.
It will also transform the recurring earnings of the distribution business upon commissioning, expected to be around mid-2027, adding an estimated AUD45 million of incremental annual earnings to the business. These developments in the last year and the Waggaman transaction closure timing provide considerations to the optimal timing of the demerger to set up both businesses for success. All of these initiatives are designed to improve the quality of our earnings to support shareholder returns. Subject to the usual trading restrictions, we are committed to our previously announced share buyback, which we will execute in every available window. Once complete, we will consider further capital management initiatives aligned with our capital allocation framework. This slide provides a good summary of the Waggaman transaction and its benefits, including the retention of its strategic value.
In March, we announced both the sale of Waggaman with a gross asset price of AUD 1.675 billion, as well as an offtake agreement valued at AUD 425 million, with the value of that agreement to be realized over the 25-year term of the supply contract. We very deliberately structured the sale to retain access to 25% of the equivalent Waggaman volumes and the associated financial and strategic benefits. The offtake agreement also significantly improves the security of supply and reduces our operational risk, limiting the cost of turnarounds and disruptions. Dyno Nobel and CF Industries have now both made their submissions to the U.S. antitrust regulator. Completion planning is progressing at play pace, and we are hopeful that a transaction will complete before the end of this calendar year.
Looking now at how the important progress that we've made on our strategy will grow recurring earnings. As mentioned previously, our offtake agreement with CF Industries will provide earnings upside to DNA. The earnings benefit will be about AUD 30 million in cash earnings annually, less the amortization, which will be determined on valuation at the deal close. The offtake agreement will also significantly reduce volatility of future DNA earnings. The recontracting of our DNAP customers has already commenced with positive earnings benefits expected from the recontracting at a better point in the cycle, with the earnings upside expected to build through FY 2024 and 2025. The combination of this recycling cycle, as well as the agreement with QPM for competitively priced gas, provides us the platform to return this business to peak earnings.
The Pertamina supply agreement, once online, is expected to deliver an estimated AUD 45 million per annum in incremental earnings. This will underpin the delivery of our target to double distribution earnings with more potential upside from the growth of value-added products. Turning now to technology and our value-add products that differentiates us in the marketplace and drives real value for our customers when it comes to productivity, safety, and environmental benefits. As you can see here, revenue growth significantly outstripped volume growth across our premium emulsions and our electronic detonators in our explosives business, reflecting the value add of our premium offering. In our fertilizer business, we successfully integrated Yara Nipro's liquid business following its acquisition announced last August. The strategy has meant that we can provide farmers with greater liquid options and enhanced security of supply.
While overall, our liquids business is performing well above the business case, volumes were impacted by a price inversion, which led to short-term preference by our customers for urea over liquids. I'd now like to take a closer look at our practical explosives technology, which continues to be the reasons that our customers choose us. A great example of our technology winning customers through innovation is our advanced detonator offering, which is solving the problem of mining on unstable ground. Our ability to synchronize different types of our advanced electronics offering allows for the optimal blend and the best blasting outcomes. This means less operator time on the ground and better safety outcomes. In the U.S., our NobleFire technology is delivering advanced digital solutions. It has a 95% customer penetration due to its easy-to-use features and robust blast design characteristics, which also allows for easy reporting of regulatory requirements.
Our technology is also allowing us to penetrate new markets, including Chile, where our Delta E technology is being combined with an advanced electronics offering. Our acquisition of Titanobel provides a platform for technology adoption in Europe and Africa. Following regulatory approval, we successfully introduced our DigiShot Ranger to the European market, completing our first shot with a QNC customer in France. Designed for the quarry market, our reliable and easy-to-use Ranger system forms a core component of our future market offering to the EMEA region, and we are looking forward to its continued rollout. I'll turn now to manufacturing and our year-on-year reliability improvements. Waggaman performed very well in the first half with above nameplate production. The temporary repairs on the ammonia cooler at Waggaman continues to exceed our expectations, allowing its replacement to be incorporated into the next scheduled turnaround in October of 2024.
With no planned interruptions currently scheduled at Waggaman, there is potential upside in the plant's volumes relative to the second half of last year. A short-term equipment issue at Phosphate Hill, which has now been rectified, impacted first half volumes, and we now expect full-year production to be in the order of 900,000-930,000 tons. Manufacturing at Gibson Island was successfully decommissioned on budget following the plant performing at record levels for the first quarter and with the outstanding safety record I previously mentioned. Let me now take you through the Dyno Nobel's result in a bit more detail. Dyno Nobel Asia Pacific grew at an underlying rate of 10%, with strong growth from our international business, as well as continued growth in technology, with earnings from differential e-emulsions and premium electronics increasing by an incremental AUD 3 million from PCP.
The EBIT result of AUD 79 million was flat on the prior corresponding period, with impacts from wet weather, reduced joint venture income, as well as the previously disclosed impact of the Gibson Island closure on DNAP earnings. In North America, our Dyno Nobel Americas business reported a very strong earnings growth with EBIT of AUD 391 million, up 55% on PCP. There are a few moving parts within that result. Let me take a minute now to walk you through the key points. The Waggaman facility performed exceptionally well in the half, operating above nameplate and delivering over AUD 300 million of EBIT. Looking at the base explosives business now, the result was down slightly in U.S. dollar terms, but up 2% in Aussie dollar terms. We continue to see positive growth in our QNC market, with volumes up 7%.
In the metal segment, the business felt the impact of an extremely cold winter and high snowfalls across North America, with a number of our customer sites being impacted. We've not been immune from the challenges of the inflationary environment and some logistics interruptions. Paul will cover this in more detail later. We've taken further action to optimize business performance with a disciplined focus on price and cost pass-throughs, as well as cost reductions, with the benefits expected to support a strong earnings uplift in the second half, with the full run rate benefits expected in FY 2024. In our agriculture and industrial chemicals business, the lower earnings reflect the combination of lower commodity prices and volumes. We expect volumes to be higher in the second half, resulting in a stronger contribution to the full year.
As we look ahead, the growth potential in Dyno Nobel is significant. The business is very well placed to capture these opportunities through our superior technology offering and our deep customer relationships. In North America, we expect strong growth in QNC and future-facing minerals markets will be the key source of earnings growth. Elsewhere, the business is growing internationally and our co-contract win at the Caserones copper mine in Chile is an example of the value we create for our customers from our Delta E technology, combined with our advanced electronics offering. Through Titanobel, we've set up a platform to tap into new selected growth markets in Europe and in the West African gold sector. The combination of the recontracting of Asia Pacific volumes and the new gas agreement creates a platform to return our DNAP earnings to peak earnings and an acceptable rate of return.
The offtake agreement with CF Industries provides strategic Waggaman earnings to be reflected in our Dyno Nobel Americas business, significantly improving the recurrent-occurring earnings profile of our explosives business. We also have good opportunities to increase our manufactured volumes. At Moranbah, debottlenecking work at our next planned turnaround in FY 2025 would restore half of the ammonium nitrate volumes lost following the cessation of manufacturing at Gibson Island, adding a further 10,000 tons of capacity annually. Options for investment and unlocking the additional volume at Lomo is also being progressed in the U.S. We're also evaluating any accretive investments and partnerships that deliver long-term earnings potential. Of course, these opportunities need to meet our capital allocation criteria and deliver attractive returns to our shareholders. Moving now to our fertilizer business. This was a challenging period, with significant commodity volatility headwinds a key driver of the lower result.
In manufacturing, we were cycling a record first half result, with earnings in the first half of this year impacted by lower DAP pricing and higher gas pricing due to a third-party supply issue. Curtailments in our contracted gas supplies at Phosphate Hill have been well managed by our procurement team, optimizing around short-term gas contracts and other arrangements and spot gas purchases. They have secured supplies in a challenging market to keep the plant running and protect the valuable earnings while managing as much as possible the costs incurred above the contract. Our third-party supplier is now planning for resumption of contract gas in June, with the additional gas cost anticipated to be in line with the previously announced range of AUD 60 million-AUD 70 million. The continued supply of gas allowed the capture of AUD 97 million of Phosphate Hill EBITDA this half year.
Distribution earnings were impacted by severe rain and flooding, pretty much wiping out the usual spring and summer application season. Which was coupled with the dramatic drop in commodity pricing. Negative commodity price sentiment also contributed to delays in purchasing activity. Inventory buildup for this business usually peaks during the first six months of the financial year, and high levels of delivered inventory was therefore exposed to this dramatic decline in urea prices of around AUD345 US dollars per ton, coupled with this unexpected contraction in demand that I mentioned earlier. While the team did an excellent job of selling excess inventory into export markets, the pricing fall resulted in an inventory write-down of AUD 17 million, which impacted margins directly. Pleasingly, the EASY Liquids and Nutrient Advantage businesses performed well in the half and helped to partially offset this margin decline.
Looking ahead, the agronomic conditions are very positive for the winter cropping season, and with positive farming economics, we expect winter demand to be strong, with margins expected to normalize by the fourth quarter of this year. Like the resilience in the end market that we see for our explosives business, the fertilizer business likewise has compelling fundamentals. You can see on this chart on the left that the long-term growth trend, which was partly disrupted by the Ukraine invasion and the very high pricing that followed. Overall, you can see the strong growth profile. On the domestic front, the numbers are also very compelling, with Australian farm gate production expected to grow to about AUD 100 billion by 2030. Demand for fertilizers, both domestically and globally, is underpinned by the global megatrends of rising populations, rising incomes, and reduced arable land per capita.
We have strategically placed assets and an integrated model across distribution and manufacturing that enables us to offer value-added products and security of supply to our customers. Our distribution business has delivered solid earnings in the range of AUD 40 million-AUD 50 million over the last several years, with this first half very much an outlier, as I've explained previously. Pertamina agreement sets the business up for success longer term and really underpins the delivery of our ambition to double distribution earnings, which is further supported by the growth in value-added products. There's further potential to transform our Gibson Island facility to green ammonia. These important strategic initiatives provides the basis to significantly increase the recurring earnings and improve the quality of earnings for our fertilizer business. With that, I'll now hand over to our CFO, Paul Victor.
Thank you, Jeanne. Good morning to everyone on the call today. Turning to slide 21, which provides a detailed overview of our financial performance in the half. Pleasingly, the business delivered improved manufacturing reliability, and this was evidenced by strong earnings growth in our Dyno Nobel Americas division. As has been well-publicized though, commodity prices were a significant short-term headwind in this period. The fall in prices, coupled with extremely wet weather conditions over the spring fertilizer season, as well as lower than expected results at Phosphate Hill, led to reduced fertilizer division earnings in the half. Our explosive business shows underlying strength in expanding its growth in technology and services to current and new customers. There were some challenges that we had to navigate in this period, which I will discuss later.
We have taken the appropriate actions in setting the business up to deliver positive underlying earnings growth in the second half of this financial year. As Jeanne mentioned, we did not escape the rising inflation and have evidenced a 2% higher cost inflation compared to normal inflation rate of 4%. In addition, our business cost base did increase year-on-year relating to business acquisitions and once-off costs associated with the execution of various strategic initiatives. We refer you to the cost slide included as part of the annexure slide in the investor presentation pack. Overall, at group level, we delivered an EBIT result of AUD 552 million, down 3% from a previous comparable period, which was still a very resilient result.
Also on this slide, the strength of the business is reflected in our operating cash flow performance of AUD 148 million in the first half, and our excellent return on invested capital, including goodwill at 12.8%. As was communicated previously, our focus is on maximizing returns to shareholders. With this in mind, the board has declared a AUD 0.10 per share interim dividend. We also plan to execute the previously announced up to AUD 400 million on-market share buyback program in the permissible trading windows and are targeting completion by around the end of calendar year 2023. Moving now on and on the next few slides, I will go through some of the key points about our working capital and our approach to capital allocation.
On slide 22, you can see that our year-on-year movement in working capital. It can also really be grouped into 3 main drivers. 1 was the movement in FX, which drove an AUD 35 million increase. 2 was the impact of the Titanobel acquisition and the WALA sale and the GI closure, all of which contributed an AUD 49 million increase. The GI closure does result in IPL carrying more inventory of AUD 30 million to facilitate sale in our distribution business. Management actions around trade working capital facility usage and other initiatives led to an AUD 20 million increase in working capital in the first half. Our continued focus on working capital management also shows up in our positive result around inventory and debtor and creditor days management.
Further actions are continuing to improve our working capital management practices and to ultimately improve working capital investment levels. The next slide outlines the investments we are making to drive growth in quality earnings in future. Our expected level of sustenance capital for financial 23 is unchanged and in line with previous expectations. We do expect turnaround CapEx to be up approximately AUD 20 million due to FX movements and the change in scope of work at the Shaheen turnaround. At WALA, the replacement of the cooler has now been deferred to align with the planned turnaround in October 2024, post anticipated completion of the transaction. The Loma and St. Helens turnaround was successfully executed in the first half of 2023.
Total sustainability CapEx is still expected to be between AUD 40 million and AUD 50 million in financial 2023, supporting our pathway to deliver 2030 emissions reductions and is associated with the previously communicated four key projects. Capital expenditure is continuously being reviewed to deliver the most optimal levels of spend to ensure long-term asset reliability as well as delivering the best ROIC on all of our assets. The next slide provides investors with an update of how we have prioritized the delivery of sustainable returns to our shareholders under our capital allocation framework. The interim dividend of AUD 0.10 per share franked 60% represents a payout ratio of 54%. This payout ratio compares very favorably with our peer group, our dividend yield is certainly very attractive.
As we have mentioned in the past, we are still committed to executing the AUD 400 million on-market share buyback. I really look forward to getting this program underway as soon as we have the next permissible trading window available. As you would expect, we're also evaluating possible capital management options for the future and will review these when the WALA proceeds are received. Further updates will be provided to the market once the board approves those. Finally from me, I'll take you through our thoughts on the outlook for the second half. Our ongoing focus is on the operational performance and the execution of our strategic objectives. At DNAP, we are confident in the stronger second-half earnings, driven by repricing a favorable sales mix and a growing customer base.
Cost passthroughs have been completed in terms of the process, and we are starting to see the results as from March 2023 in our numbers. The business optimization program we have put in place is progressing really well, and we are going to see an earnings uplift in the second half with a full run rate expected to be delivered in financial 2024. Fundamentally, the markets in which DNA operate are trending well, with QNC volumes up around 7% and the metals markets returning to historical levels. Finally, for DNA, we expect Wala to continue its strong performance and operate at nameplate capacity for financial 2023. We are very hopeful of completing the Wala transaction by the end of calendar year 2023. Turning to DNAP, the business is set up for also higher earnings run rate in the second half.
The business is making good progress with regards to restoring historical margins through the recontracting strategy. We are recontracting at a better point in the cycle. We expect the earnings upside to bolt through financial 2024 and financial 2025. Turning our focus now to fertilizers. Agricultural conditions and farm economics are generally favorable, with a recent decline in fertilizer prices expected to support stronger fertilizer demand. We also expect distribution margins will improve by quarter four and into financial 2024. At Phosphate Hill, the revised outlook is for full year production of between 900,000 and 930,000 tons for the year. We are seeing positive results from value-add products in our fertilizer business and anticipate further growth in the sales of enhanced efficiency fertilizers and liquid fertilizers.
We also want to draw your attention to the 100,000 tons of Gibson Island urea-linked manufacturing product on hand at 31 March 2023. Urea prices recently declined significantly. At prevailing spot prices, we do expect for the Gibson Island line item a negative AUD20 million impact to be realized for the second half of financial 23. However, the distribution business will not be impacted by the carryover stock and will generate its rightful margin on the tons it's going to sell in the market. Overall, we think the underlying earnings will be favorably skewed to the second half. We have taken appropriate actions to set up the business to deliver a strong second half performance. That's all from me. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. On that note, I'll hand back to Jeanne.
Thanks, Paul. I'd now like to close by talking about our priorities for the second half. As always, safety remains our number one priority, and we'll continue to execute our safety improvement plan as well as our important sustainability agenda. All three of our divisions are focused on delivering improved underlying performance in the second half, as well as progressing important elements of our strategy. The recontracting of Wambo volumes has already commenced with considerably more favorable market conditions than at the last recontracting cycle. We're working at pace towards the completion of the Waggaman transaction, which includes detailed work to transition to the new operating model. We're making good progress across both our explosives and our fertilizer businesses to improve the quality of earnings and set both businesses up for success. We'll determine the optimal timing for the demerger.
As we step back from the journey that we've been on, for some time, I've talked about how our strategy is positioning both of our businesses to build their recurring earnings and reduce commodity exposure. The strategic progress that we've made in the first half of the year is expected to have a material impact on the delivery of that transition. We remain focused on continuing that strategy, as well as delivering a strong second half performance in FY 2023. That concludes our presentation for this morning, and thank you for your time, and we'll now open it up for questions.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Once again, that's star one one for question. Our first question comes from the line of John Purtell from Macquarie. Please go ahead, John.
Oh, good morning, Jeanne and Paul. How are you?
Very good, John. Welcome.
Hi, John.
Just have a couple of questions. Paul, just on the working capital increase there, which we see seasonally, I mean, that was AUD 200 million up in the first half versus the end of September. Are you expecting all of that to reverse out in the second half? I mean, typically we see a substantial reversal on a seasonal basis, but, you know, is that a reasonable assumption that all of that reverses out in the second half?
Yes, John, if I can quickly refer to that, you're absolutely correct. In addition to the seasonality of the working capital reversal, which we really fully expect to translate into our working capital numbers, the lower commodities will also drive lower working capital. That we are, we have actually started with extensive, you know, improvement kind of initiatives to even drive more efficiencies into our working capital. I'm not saying that we haven't done it in the past, but we just want to be more agile about it. We also believe, specifically in fertilizers and then in some parts of our explosive business, we also anticipate to see some further benefits.
On the balance of things year-on-year, we do expect that unwind as well as further improvements through our management actions to realize in our working capital number.
Thank you. Just a second one, just on the fertilizer side redistribution. Obviously, there was a write down there on inventory of AUD 17 million. Has that sort of largely played out now or are you expecting a bit more to, you know, to flow through there in the second half? I note your comment there that margins to improve in the fourth quarter, is that inventory sort of essentially back to where it needs to be?
Yeah. Why don't you take that, Paul?
Okay. Absolutely. As you can expect, the prices really started to come down in March, and we had to make this in terms of IFRS, this assessment of, you know, kind of net realizable value on working capital as at the end of March. We have seen most of that stock actually being realized and sold in April and the beginning of May, and we are quite positive that that's behind us, John.
Thank you. Just the last one there, thanks for the quantification of the sourcing benefits there from CF. Just in terms of the deal completion there, you've said end of or prior to sort of essentially Christmas there. I mean, how would you assess the risks around deal completion there, Jeanne?
I mean, I think obviously both us and CF have looked into this, and we're of a similar view that we're hopeful that we will get it done within that window. Like I said, we're both confident and committed to doing everything we can, but it is ultimately a regulatory.
Yeah.
Decision, and, they will actually determine the timing of it.
Thank you.
All right. Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Andrew Scott from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question, Andrew.
Thank you and good morning. Jeanne, question for you. Your outlook commentary for DNAP references a focus on price pass-throughs and cost reductions. I would have thought pass-throughs were pretty much part of all contracts and cost management is sort of part of your day-to-day operations. Can you talk through what hasn't been happening there and what are the initiatives in place to rectify that?
Yeah, I mean, I think our DNA business, I think the first thing to say is for the full year, we remain on track. It's really a first half, a second half split. We've obviously been continually pushing through costs and so forth. We have had unprecedented amounts of inflation, weather impacted, and some logistics costs as well. We have been pushing things through. We have had our latest one happened late in the half and was our biggest one to date. As that takes in, into impact, that's what underpins our confidence in the second half being materially stronger than the first.
Okay, thank you. Last half you noted you were open to recontracting early. You know, success in recontracting was a big part of your competitor's result last week. I wasn't clear from your commentary. Have you rolled any contracts early? If so, how do new contract economics compare?
Yeah, I mean, I think it's a great a great point out about the difference in the, in the cycles and when recontracting comes up. We clearly are recontracting early to any customers that are willing to do so. It's important to point out that in our DNA business, it doesn't have a discrete recontracting cycle. There's multiple venue avenues into the marketplace. We've been pursuing those as we can. In, in the Australian market, you know, on our, you know, on our base business, we have, you know, really a single AN production site at Moranbah. It is all tied to the Moranbah cycle timing.
Those are well progressed, we're very pleased that, unlike last time when there was a lot of new capacity that had been put on the market, before that, the supply-demand is very tight and very balanced now. It is significantly stronger environment and therefore, those earnings uplift will happen as those contracts are flow through. We see that increasing over FY 2024 and FY 2025, and are confident that we'll be able to return that business to its historic high as well as a proper return on investment.
Okay, thank you. Just the last one. It appears rectification of the gas supply issues for Fossil have been delayed, albeit just a quarter. Once that's up and running, how confident are you in the reserves and the ability to have long-term consistent supply?
Yeah, I mean, clearly we were very disappointed that our third-party contract time slipped by a quarter. What has given me comfort then and still remain in place is that the Blacktip Field, which is where our supply comes from, is managed by a super major, and they've been working on the field for the last several months. Also, the Blacktip Field is a high-quality reservoir. We continue to talk with our third-party supplier in order to get increased comfort in that they'll honor and continue to supply per that contract.
Okay, thank you. I'll leave it there.
Mm-hmm.
All right, thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brook Campbell-Crawford from Barrenjoey. Please ask your question, Brooke.
Yeah, thanks. Just one on Phosphate Hill costs. Can you just step through what the impacts perhaps on a dollar per ton basis for the outage for the ammonia plant in the first half? We can figure out gas, but just what the issue was or per ton issue was with the ammonia plant would be great. Thanks.
Very good. I'll start with kind of the strategic overlay, and then I'll hand it to Paul about the first half. I mean, I think the important thing is the Phosphate Hill cost per ton. We always look at the competitive cost curve and to keep that asset in third quartile. You know, we aim for the P50 mark, the third quartile is P 50 to P75. In the current environment, as we look at its competitiveness at a 950,000 ton per annum, it is at that P50 run rate. That gives us good confidence on the underlying competitiveness of the asset. As far as the first half results, I'll hand that over to Paul.
Basically two components. You know, in terms of the, you know, can the cost levels be optimized? Yes, they can be more optimized, and that is our thinking that that will transpire and play out in the second half. Where are the kind of the points that we need to focus on, as Jeanne already spoke about? Probably the most significant increase on our, you know, competitive rate per ton is due to the additional gas.
We've incurred around about AUD 40 million of additional gas costs, as we articulated in that range of AUD 60-AUD 70, AUD 41 realized in the first half. On the cash fixed cost side, due to the kind of the instability and the production incidents that we experienced in the first half, our expectation on cost was probably AUD 10 million less half on half. The combination of the two transpired into a AUD 51 million total cost increase half on half for the phosphate yield. Looking forward, we do believe that those production incidents did receive the right attention. We do believe, you know, what happened there is not structural.
You know, kind of these, you know, usually these incidents have a reason why they occur, but we feel quite comfortable that, you know, managing them out should be relatively easy. Hence for the second half, we do believe that the cost would be very much in line compared to what you've seen last year for the second half, which was a much more effective run rate of the phosphate yield plus. Yeah, unfortunately, not such a great cost performance in the first half, but really positioned quite well with all the actions taken to ensure that we're more in line to our previous optimal levels of cost per ton in the second half.
Thanks. Jeanne, just one for you on the demerger, what's the latest thinking on the process, just in terms of your commitment to the fertilizer demerger in general, and also when should we expect to get an updated timeline for that process?
I think there's a number of different things that are playing into the timeline. Certainly the closure of the Waggaman transaction and it's been a year since we announced it. We'll be looking at what the optimal timing is. Like I said, we still the board still feels as though the demerger is a tax-efficient way of unlocking value for shareholders. Looking at what the optimal timing will be, a focus in the second half of the year.
Thanks.
Great. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Richard Johnson from Jefferies. Please go ahead, Richard.
Thank you very much. Jeanne, can I just clarify something? I think you made reference to the things that you're doing at DNAP would return it to peak earnings or peak profitability. I forget precisely the words you used. Could you help me understand what you're actually referencing there? Because I'm conscious of the fact that obviously the business is a lot smaller given what happened in WA.
The peak earnings is, I think it was FY 2018-
Yeah.
Is what the peak earnings were. I would look at FY 2018. Of course, you'd have to add, the Titanobel acquisition to that, you know, because we're now reporting that through that stream. We feel very comfortable that we have line of sight between the competitive gas contract and the recontracting of Moranbah, that and the growth in technology and the underlying improvement of the business, that we'll be able to return it to that level.
Just to clarify, you can get back to 2018, even taking into account the fact that the WA business is very different today.
Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, the WA business, you know, it goes back to where the margins achieve. We don't do AN processing, and most of the uplifts that we've seen in the industry has been because of the AN. Like I said, we get that on our technology, our services and so forth, and that continues to be very strong. Our WA profitability is as strong as it's ever been, if not stronger. You know, the WA business is quite a good contributor, albeit, we don't get an AN margin there because of our asset base.
Got it. Thanks. Then in your announcement on the gas supply agreement from Moranbah last night, you made the comment that you expected it to sustain the long-term competitive advantage of the plant. I'm wondering if you could expand on that and sort of help me understand precisely what those competitive advantages actually are in a new gas environment?
Yeah, I mean, as you referenced, the Australian East Coast market for gas has never been more challenging than it currently is. Moranbah, as you know, has been on stranded gas, which led to this really unique and innovative solution that the team has put together. It does provide us some immunity from the uncertainty on the East Coast gas market and provides our customers security of supply. You know, the area that we're talking about where the gas comes from, the 1P resources is about double what we actually need over the 10-year contract period.
With that, with our priority rights and the joint operating committee, that puts us in a very good position to be able to deal with some better pricing certainty and provide our customers with security of supply. A bit of an extra bonus is that it also provides our customers with an ability to meet their obligations for the Safeguard Mechanism as well. It's really overall a very unique and innovative solution, and it does underpin the competitiveness of the Moranbah asset for an additional 10 years, which I think is pretty unprecedented on the east coast of Australia.
Great. Thanks. Just sort of returning to the question that Scotty asked around recontracting. I'm just trying to understand, you know, if in fact you've done any, how you did that when you weren't really aware of what your gas price was gonna be?
Yeah. Obviously that was, that was taken into account.
Mm-hmm.
Like I said, you know, that's why we do have line of sight. We've obviously been working this deal for a while. With line of sight to the gas and the recontracting, you know, we're well into recontracting. Like I said, we'll be completing that. That's why you put the two together to really give. That's what gives us confidence of returning to the record earnings. Like you know, last couple years we haven't been getting a proper return on investment. This will return the business and provide us that proper return on investment for that business.
Great. Thanks. In North America, Jeanne, I'm just trying to understand, you know, really, I mean, you've given a good explanation, but given that QNC was so strong, and that's obviously right in your wheelhouse. You know, I'm just trying to understand where the offsets were. I understand what you talked about in relation to cost, but there must have been some other markets that really knocked you around ex weather. Would that be coal in particular? Maybe you can help us understand what the net weather impact was from an EBIT perspective.
Yeah, I think, I mean, coal was relatively flat, so it didn't really move the dial plus or minus. Our metals business is what the first half suffered from. We had a change in mine planning operations in the iron ore range that hit us in the second half of last year and the first half of this year. You know, our understanding from the customer is that they're back blasting, so that will hit us in the second half. The second piece that we didn't expect, obviously, was the weather impacted one. There was very heavy snows in Western Canada or Western U.S.
You know, anybody who's a skier that looked at U.S. skiing season, you know, note that it was a very strong season that was unfortunately not a good blasting season. The heavy snowfalls in the west hit the mets business particularly. The extreme cold weather hit logistics, plant operations, and reduced in the rest of the country. Those were the main factors that drove on it. I think what's important is the full year results on track. Anything to add, Paul?
Yeah. Jeanne is correct. I mean, just on that, you know, on that point, you know, the business was running exceptionally well, right up to the end of November, you know, hitting all our targets. In December, you know, we did see a deviation of between AUD 5 million and AUD 8 million on our internal plans because of the weather delay. We've replanned that, as Jeanne says, and hence we believe we can still make up what we've lost and hence fill our commitment to our full run rate for the year. It was a later half year impact to be kind of recovered over the second six.
That's very helpful, Paul. Thanks. Just while you're there, the last one. I believe that GI was actually operating for one quarter in the half or the December quarter. Just trying to understand what the impact of that would've been.
Yes, it did operate, and it did contribute to our bottom line. I'll make sure that through Geoff, we can give you what that impact is. I think we just need to fully, you know, kind of quantify not only the earnings but the cash impact, Geoff.
Okay. Presumably it was reasonably material because pricing was still quite high, even though you'd have been citing record earnings in that business.
Yeah. earnings-wise.
Great. That's it from me. Thank you very much.
Great. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Ryall from Rimor Equity Research. Please ask your question, Scott.
Hello. Hopefully you can hear me.
Hello, Scott.
Oh, hi. Sorry.
We can.
I just went blank. I just had a couple of questions. Both Jeanne, yourself and Paul have made comments about a stronger second half. I just wanted to clarify, you're talking relative to the first half as opposed to relative to the second half last year?
Yes, that's what we're referring to.
Okay, great.
Yeah.
Thank you.
I mean, we normally have a Q. We do expect the Q to be larger than normal, but we do expect a larger than normal second half, first half Q.
Yep. Okay. Thank you. Just you made reference, both when you announced the sale of Waggaman and also today about the potential for increased volumes of sold product in North America. You've mentioned particularly Louisiana today. I'm wondering if you can quantify a little bit more how much, you know, what sort of percentage uplift you think you can get out of efficiency gains in the North American market, please, for those downstream assets?
I think, I think what we're referring to is our Louisiana, Missouri plant, which is always confusing with our Louisiana Waggaman plant. The Louisiana, Missouri plant, which takes the ammonia from Waggaman and makes ammonium nitrate, we do see some opportunities to debottleneck that we're pursuing given the tightness of AN market and improved profitability of that. You know, that would, that's looking a very attractive option. We're generally talking 5%-10%. It's all smaller debottlenecking opportunities.
Yeah. Okay.
Having more manufactured volume versus purchase volumes at this point in the cycle is a very attractive proposition.
Yep. Okay. 5%-10%, that was kinda the commentary I was after. Could you just explain, there's been a couple of questions on inventory and the broader fertilizers business. With the distribution business within fertilizers, I understand the comments you made, is it normal course of business for this for the distribution business to take commodity price risk?
You know, I mean, I think first of all, it's important to recognize just the unprecedented size of the movement. You know, I'm dropping AUD 345 a ton is, you know, sometimes that's the whole price of the product. So I think that's unprecedented. Also the timing couldn't be worse. You know, normally we'd constantly be selling that through, and so therefore the exposure's a lot less. When you couple that with all the flooding, you know, it's one of those things, the ag business usually likes rain.
Mm-hmm.
It usually means a good season, but we got so much rain that parts of the Australian market was flooded out, and the farmers just couldn't plant, so they fundamentally missed a whole season.
Mm.
We basically bought inventory for what was expected to be a good season, and that didn't come.
Yeah.
At the same time, the pricing dropped, and it dropped by unprecedented amount. It used to be AUD10, AUD20, AUD30 a ton would be seen as a big drop.
Yeah.
So it's very unfortunate timing and, coupled with the weather impact, it was sort of, kind of a, you know, everything came together at exactly the wrong time.
I guess my point is trying to just get a sense of you don't have back-to-back contracts for sale of commodities that you're purchasing. You are to some degree purchasing on spec and on the expectation of a sale as opposed to with the certainty of a sale. Is that correct?
Yeah. You, I mean, this, the business model has always been of buying and then selling through.
Mm-hmm.
Really the exposure to the commodity usually results in a higher or lower margin on distribution.
Yeah.
Usually we see the distribution margin more than offsetting the price in the commodity.
Mm.
You know, when it goes against you, your margin shrinks, and when it goes for you, your margin grows.
Mm.
Generally that commodity pricing, you know, difference has been relatively small and absorbed within the margin.
Yeah. Okay. Right. I understand. Okay. That's all I had. Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Again, it's star one one for questions. I am showing no further questions. I'd now like to turn the conference back to Jeanne for closing remarks.
Very good. Well, thanks, Emma, and thanks everybody for joining us today. I think, you know, I think we're looking forward to a much, much stronger underlying second half and continued strong progress on strategic agenda. We do feel very good about setting these two businesses up for success in the future and look forward to future calls. Thanks for your time.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.