Fenix Resources Limited (ASX:FEX)
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Apr 28, 2026, 4:11 PM AEST
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Earnings Call: H2 2025

Aug 27, 2025

Moderator

Welborn and Fenix Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Chris Hunt. So nice to see you both this morning. Now, this live webinar is being held using Automix's online meeting platform, which allows shareholders to participate by asking questions. They can be submitted at any time. You simply need to press the Q&A icon at the bottom right of your screen. That will open a new screen, and at the bottom of that screen, you'll see a section where you can type your question. If we get a number of similar questions on the same topic, I'll make sure the main subject matter is covered before we move on, because we want to try and get to as many questions as we can.

If we do run out of time to answer all of your questions, just please feel free to email them using the address on the Fenix website, and they'll be answered in due course. To get the webinar underway, I'll now pass over to Fenix ' Executive Chairman, John Welborn, for some introductory comments. John.

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

Thanks very much, Mick. It's an exciting morning for Fenix . We published our annual report for the year ended 30 June 2025, and also a summary announcement of the FY 2025 full-year financial results, and also a notification of our declared fully franked final dividend of $0.01 per share, and our corporate governance statement and the related documents. I'm delighted to be joined by Fenix ' Chief Financial Officer, Chris Hunt, to discuss these results and also answer shareholder questions. This has been billed as a transformational year for Fenix . We evolved from a successful small-scale single mine operator in the Midwest, and we ended the financial year as a multi-million, multi-mine, 4 million ton per annum producer. Iron Ridge continued its consistent performance: high grade, high quality. It's a cash cow.

We developed the Shine Iron Ore Mine, and that has exceeded expectations, and we have demonstrated our continuing ability to develop and commission mines with the addition of our third mine, the Beebyn W11 project, possibly the most important project Fenix has developed to date, given its strong partnership with Sinosteel Midwest Corporation in the Midwest. We're building our production platform, and that's demonstrated in the year. I'm particularly proud to be able to reflect today on these financial results, given the Iron Ore price declined just under $20 , from an average of around $120 in FY 2024 to an average just over $100 in FY 2025. That is a significant change. We've seen many of our peers impair their assets, and many of our peers really struggle. The board were aware of that looking into this financial year. We knew it was a big CapEx year.

It was a big development year. I just congratulate everyone at Fenix for executing what was a challenging year in the prevailing Iron Ore price environment to continue our great operations. You can see in the photo behind Chris and myself at Iron Ridge to add to those projects with an excellent operation at Shine and to demonstrate our future with another on-time, on-budget development of Beebyn W11. Some quick highlights: record Iron Ore shipments again. Stay tuned for more records. This financial year reporting on this morning, we mined, hauled, stored, loaded, and shipped and sold 2.4 million tons. That's 41 vessels out of the port of Geraldton. That's up 64% on FY 2024. A significant boost in revenue that helped us offset that significant fall in Iron Ore prices. I've discussed how the development of the project team and how well our expansion has gone.

1.3 million tons from Iron Ridge, C1 cash costs of AUD 76 FOB Geraldton. In an environment where we continue to see, in many cases, double-digit cost inflation in Western Australia, we're doing an excellent job to continue to bring down that cost of production. It's a relentless focus at Fenix. We did that also at Shine. We exceeded our expectations, producing 1.1 million tons at a cash cost of $68.50 FOB Geraldton. That's in line with the feasibility study target, recognizing the feasibility study target was an average C1 cash cost over the life of stage one. We always knew we were going to have high costs very early in that project, high strip ratios. To see those costs already achieve the feasibility study is a really good outcome to the team. Beebyn W11, stay tuned. That's a great mine.

We've had fun at the start of this financial year, announcing start of mining, start of haulage, and now our first shipment. That's going to be an important operation moving forward. We're demonstrating market resilience. We're continuing to bring down our break-even Iron Ore costs, something we focus on very strongly internally. That means that we're demonstrating robust margins. That's allowed us to declare a dividend, a final dividend for this year. Shareholders should also know this is the first year that we have provided clear market guidance looking forward for the current financial year, FY 2026. We are aiming and targeting to produce between 4 million tons and 4.4 million tons, and we're aiming to do that at a cash cost between AUD 70 and AUD 80 a ton, FOB Geraldton. Very, very clear guidance.

We've set for a while that we want to achieve a 4 million ton per annum run rate, and you're now seeing our confidence in saying that that's our production. While today we're looking backwards and celebrating a record 2.4 million tons per annum, the exciting thing for shareholders when you look at these numbers, our cash flow, our EBITDA, the prevailing Iron Ore price, is that we are continuing to push that multiplier number. This year, it's going to target above four. That's going to continue to drive strong numbers from Fenix. To talk about those financial details in more detail, delighted to pass across to Fenix's Chief Financial Officer, Chris Hunt.

Chris Hunt
CFO, Fenix Resources

Thanks, John. Really appreciate it. Welcome everyone to this webinar. For me, it's an absolute pleasure to be presenting the financial results for FY 2025, as it's my first annual report for Fenix .

To me, what a way to start. As John Welborn's outlined above, this is an absolute transformational year for Fenix in terms of positioning the company strongly for FY 2026 and beyond. In terms of the actual financial results, I'll just spend a bit of time going through those now, and obviously happy to take any questions later on. Revenue, obviously a very important number, $316 million, up from $259 million in the prior year. What's good about that from a Fenix side is, as John Welborn mentioned earlier, the Iron Ore price went down by sort of $20 or on a 15% basis. We've managed to increase our sales volumes by 64%, which has really helped us shield from this Iron Ore price decrease and has allowed us to increase our revenue.

I think, as we all know, in the Iron Ore game, certainly for every ton that we make, we make money. For us, when the Iron Ore price is down, we need to be producing more tons, and when the Iron Ore price is up, we need to be producing more tons. We did that in FY 2025 and clearly FY 2026 and beyond with our new target sales production of 4 million - 4.4 million tons. EBITDA, still a strong $54.3 million. Last year, it was $73.2 million. Apart from the price decrease year on year, this also reflects the ramp-up of two new mines, predominantly Shine during FY 2025 and the start and the ramp-up of Beebyn W11.

What you're going to see in FY 2026 with both these mines at full noise, so their full production rate, Shine and Beebyn W11, coupled with flagship production, continued production from Iron Ridge, we're really going to have three mines targeting strong earning contributions for FY 2026 and beyond. Net profit after tax was $5.4 million. Previous year, it was $33.6 million. In addition to the EBITDA commentary I just mentioned earlier, we've also got increased depreciation and amortization from our fleet expansion to support the 4 million tons and also commissioning of two new mines. Pleasingly, and to me, one of the most important numbers is our operating cash flow, $71.9 million for FY 2025, remarkably consistent to FY 2024.

Those sales volumes, increase in the sales volumes, has clearly offset that price decline, and we've generated strong operating cash flows and has allowed us to have a really strong closing cash position of $56.8 million at 30 June 2025. In terms of CapEx for FY 2025, given it was a transformational year going from one mine to three, the key items were additional mobile equipment to support the expansion. The Newhaul fleet logistics, new logistics workshop, our inland port development at Ruvidini, and our mine development costs at Shine and Beebyn W11. They were the main CapEx items that you'll see in our cash flow for FY 2025. In terms of hedging, we've got 590,000 tons hedged at an average price of AUD 154 a ton, pleasingly through to June 2026. We also have AUD call options, $96 million U.S. worth at around $0.69.

The call options for Fenix provide us with a right, but not the obligation. It's a right, not an obligation, to convert U.S. dollars into Australian dollars at the exercise price, which for Fenix gives us unlimited upside to a lower Australian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar. If the Australian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar goes down to $0.60, we benefit from that. If it goes to $0.58, we benefit from that. It protects our downside risk from a stronger Australian dollar. If it goes to $0.75, we're still hedged at $0.70, and we're really, really comfortable at those levels. We're very profitable at those levels. From a hedging point of view, in terms of Australian dollar Iron Ore swaps and AUD call options, we'll continue to seek opportunities to increase that hedge book where it is prudent to do so.

The confidence in Fenix from FY 2025 is clearly shown in what John said earlier, and I just want to reiterate that, in that we've given FY 2026 guidance. We've guided to 4 million - 4.4 million tons in terms of mined, produced, hauled, shipped, and a group C1 cash cost of between $70 to $80 per wet metric ton in Australian dollars. We have confidence in those numbers, and clearly from our side, and all of you that would know John and have known him for a long time, we with John will aim to beat those numbers. That is what we're going to set out to do, but we're happy, more than happy to guide to those numbers at this stage. As John mentioned, we've also declared a fully franked final dividend of $0.01 per share, which equates to about $7.4 million and is 137% of the FY 2025 Net Profit After Tax.

This absolutely reflects the confidence in our operational performance and our future cash generation and helps whilst balancing shareholder returns. The key points to note with the dividend are that the record date is the 4th of September, and the payment date is the 19th of September. That concludes my high-level summary of the results. I look forward to any questions and welcome them. Now back to you, Mick, for the Q&A session.

Moderator

Great. Thanks very much, Chris. As I mentioned, if you would like to submit a question, there's the Q&A button at the bottom of your screen, and just follow the prompts through there. Just a couple of my own before we do get into the ones that are coming through. John, to start with you, Fenix ' FY2025, it's characterized by a year of growth, one mine to three mines. How do you see the investment in FY 2025 translating to future years?

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

We're building capacity. I direct shareholders to my Chairman's letter at the front of the annual report, where I talk about our vision and what motivates the team. One thing to mention looking forward and what the investments we've been making can deliver in the future is just to talk a little bit about our integrated supply chain and the three pillars on which Fenix is built. You know, the hero of this financial year, as it has been since the inception of the company, is our new haul logistics business. We have an incredible team that operate a fleet now of 70 of these quad road trains you can see in this photograph.

They're hauling ore 500 km from our mines to the port of Geraldton, and then they're very efficiently storing that material in a dust-conscious manner, loading into ships, and sending these high-quality products to our customers. That's the key. The investments we've made, I am very proud. Fenix last raised capital in 2020. It was $15 million. The money that we've generated from mining, hauling, shipping, we have invested back into the business. We've also managed to now pay $75 million, having raised $15.5 million years ago, back to our shareholders in dividends. That's really pleasing. I know there's a lot of shareholders who really appreciate those dividends. What's much more exciting, I think, is the hundreds of millions of dollars we've invested in growth. The answer to your question, Mick, is expect us to continue to expand our mining. We have a wonderful logistics business.

The port can do more than 10 million tons per annum. Craig Mitchell, my fellow Executive Director and the founder and CEO of Newhaul, is incredibly confident in our ability to continue to unlock the stranded deposits of the Midwest. The investments we're making in haulage fleet, in equipment, in our mining business, in our port operations, in housing developments in Geraldton is all about continuing to build what people should be seeing. A 1.4 million ton per annum profitable miner moving to this year, we've just reported on 2.5, moving to next financial year, the one we're currently in, to 4 or more and expect bigger. These investments are not around a pop-up shop. They're about looking forward to a generational business in the Midwest.

Moderator

Yeah, great. Now, Chris, you mentioned the cost discipline achieved in FY 2025 was quite remarkable. How do you see FY 2026 in terms of costs?

Chris Hunt
CFO, Fenix Resources

Yeah, thanks, Mick. I think how we think about costs is it's got to be on a sustainable basis. We're not looking for quick sugar hits. It's got to be sustainable cost reductions that can last for a number of years. We've actually got a number of initiatives on the go at the moment in terms of how we can potentially lower our costs further. Notwithstanding, we've given the cost guidance of $70 - $80 per wet metric ton C1 cash costs on a group basis. Again, as I said earlier, we're actually looking to do better, and we've got initiatives currently on the go at the moment, and we continually look for ways to reduce it.

I think one of the advantages of Fenix is it's still quite a nimble company, and we can react pretty quickly as we see fit, which I think certainly sets us ahead in terms of how we can deal with costs going forward. I would just leave investors and shareholders with a comment that we aim to do better than our guidance, and we look at it on a sustainable basis, not quick fixes.

Moderator

Now, John, you spoke about this significant investment in FY 2025. A $0.01 fully franked final dividend was a surprise. How should we view this dividend and dividends going forward?

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

I hope it was a pleasant surprise, if it surprised people at all. I think I would encourage shareholders to look at our dividend policy. The Board has reaffirmed it. It was originally a dividend policy that committed us to pay between 50% and 80% of net profit after tax as a final fully franked dividend subject to the availability of franking credits. Several years ago, when we outlined the strategy that you are now seeing unfolding, that we're successfully building, the Board changed that policy to say that the Board will review and look to pay a fully franked dividend subject to the availability of franking credits and with regard to the CapEx requirements of the business.

I think looking at this financial year, it's really obvious the Board made the correct decision last year at a period where the Iron Ore price was $88 , and we knew that in front of us, we had the capital spend to build two mines in a volatile environment. This year, we've succeeded in that. As Chris has described, the outlook for Fenix is strong. We still see the ability for us to invest capital on behalf of our shareholders in incredibly strong IRR opportunities and continue to invest in building our business, which we are very confident will build future rewards for shareholders. However, we also see that consistent with that policy, it's prudent and possible for us to access the value for our shareholders in our franking credit balance by paying a $0.01 dividend.

Not only have we made that declaration, we continue to affirm to shareholders that the dividend policy is in place. We will review on an annual basis the appropriate decision on rewarding shareholders with a dividend, while the main focus remains building our capital value, building our future earnings potential, and taking advantage of this amazing opportunity we have in the Midwest.

Moderator

Sounds good. Now, Chris, you mentioned hedging. Will you continue to take advantage of the current Iron Ore price in terms of additional hedging?

Chris Hunt
CFO, Fenix Resources

Yeah, I mean, it's a good question. Clearly, the Iron Ore price is remarkably resilient. It's remaining above $100 per ton on a CFR 62% basis. Shareholders would have noticed that we did some additional hedging a few weeks ago, which we announced to the market. We took advantage of an increase in the Iron Ore price. The short answer is absolutely yes. We're really, really clear on our business costs and how we can make money from this business, and we will enter into hedging opportunities when we think it's right and we can exceed expectations of what we think we can achieve without hedging. To date, I think obviously joining this company in January and looking at it from afar and now getting involved in terms of the hedging with John and others, it's been a very prudent strategy by the company on a risk management basis.

We look at it on an opportunistic basis, and we'll continue to do so. I think that's clearly demonstrated when we did that hedging a few weeks ago, topping it up to June 2026 at a roughly, you know, we've got an average hedge book of $154 per ton. The answer is yes, we will be. That's in terms of Iron Ore swaps and call options as well.

Moderator

Just a follow-up question on risk management from shareholder Jen Piscopo. He said in relation to the foreign exchange swaps you've disclosed, how will they assist the IO price hedging going forward? I think he's looking for an explanation on how these work.

Chris Hunt
CFO, Fenix Resources

Yeah, so I mean, our business, we're now at a 4 million ton run rate. We've got significant U.S. dollar revenue coming in. Point number one for people to note is that we'll always look for natural hedges first. All our shipping costs, freight shipping costs, because we sell CFR predominantly. We do have some free on board. We pay that in U.S. dollars. We'll always look to do natural hedging first wherever we've got U.S. dollar costs. Then we look at what's remaining after that. We use a combination of Iron Ore swaps, and it's actually foreign exchange options. To be really clear, the Iron Ore swaps lock us into a price, an Australian dollar per ton price. The foreign exchange options do not lock us into anything. They protect downside risk for the company, but give us unlimited upside.

We will use those where we still have additional U.S. dollar revenue that we haven't protected. We're not looking to hedge to 100%, just a sensible level on a rolling 12-month basis, sort of cascading down in terms of percentages, so that we still want to retain a sensible exposure to the market. Firstly, because we believe the Iron Ore price continues to surprise on the upside. We're getting tremendous advantage from that today, and we think it's going to continue like that certainly for the short term. I hope that's answered the question, but happy to take any follow-up questions on that.

Moderator

Great. Now, John, some questions have come through from the research analysts that cover Fenix . Firstly, from James Williamson at Bell Potter. He says, what do you see as the key risks both to the upside and downside to achieving FY 2026 sales and cost guidance?

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

I continue to hear from market participants that the risks that they see in Fenix are the Iron Ore price. I see we're having some questions around our outlook, and Chris has just described that. The other obvious downside risk for Fenix Resources is the available ore inventory that we have. As a mining company, we're really valued on the commodity we mine and the mine life we have. Since inception, we have exploited this wonderful, very high-grade, but very small Iron Ridge mine that's behind me. We have a relatively small resource at Shine, and we've now got a 10 million ton right to mine from Sinosteel Midwest Corporation that we've started mining at Beebyn W11. The obvious downside risks for Fenix are Iron Ore price related. As you know, the analysts continue to outline their view that the Iron Ore price is falling.

As Chris has just described, we continue to see that it doesn't. The longer it stays at $100 , the more resilient it appears to be. In fact, we've now got, finally, after years and years, banks like ANZ coming out and forecasting actually that they believe the Iron Ore price this year is going to be $105 . We don't bank that. As Chris has described, we're committed to a risk management policy. We appropriately and prudently protect on that downside risk through our hedging policy on Iron Ore and on our exposure to foreign exchange. On the mine life risk, we see ourselves as a logistics company, and we have a port operation that can do 10 million tons a year. We've got an expandable and scalable transport logistics business.

At 4 million tons per annum, we're going to be running through our available ore inventories at a much quicker rate than we have previously. Obviously, a downside risk for us is our available ore inventories. That's also an opportunity that we are looking for where we can add to our resource inventory. We've obviously been active in securing tenements that are available in and around us in the Weld Range. Earlier in the financial year, we pursued a potential game-changing transaction with CZR because we could see that that would significantly boost our ore inventories. The downside risks are a collapse in Iron Ore price, which is looking less and less likely. I think, in fact, as Chris has described, there's some optimism in the Iron Ore price. A downside risk would be our ability to extend our mine lives. The upside risks are really obvious.

There are hundreds, if not billions of tons of Iron Ore in the world ranges. I'm not talking about exploration. We don't have to go and find these and drill them out or fund exploration teams. These are resources that have been previously drilled out. Iron Ore was discovered in this part of the world in 1870. Billions of dollars have been spent defining these stranded resources. We have the capacity to unlock them. We're talking with potential and existing partners about how to do that. The upside is you've seen us go from 1.4 to 4. You've seen us bring our costs down from in the $90s to now in the $70s, and we're targeting to continue that pathway. The obvious upside is we think we can be a 10 million ton a year producer.

We think we can do that at a break-even cost below $50 in the years ahead. That's a really exciting upside. That's what gets everyone motivated at Fenix .

Moderator

Sounds good. Also from James at Bell Potter, this one perhaps for you, Chris. Depreciation increased significantly with the fleet expansion and mine development. Going forward, should we expect further increases in D&A, or is the circa $50 million mark safe to extrapolate into FY 2027-2028?

Chris Hunt
CFO, Fenix Resources

Yeah, that's a good question because it certainly has increased, which is not a surprise given our expansion of two mines and the associated infrastructure with the two new mines coming online. I think, you know, broadly, that number is safe to assume for the next couple of years, if not coming down slightly. $50 million for FY 2026, there or thereabouts, certainly coming down thereafter. I will caution that with subject to any other growth opportunities that we may or may not pursue. Based on 4 million tons and what we've got in place today, that number is broadly safe to assume.

Moderator

Just as a follow-up, with Shine and Beebyn W11 and expanded fleet capacity now online, how should we think about CapEx in FY 2026, and what are the major spend items to keep in mind for the year ahead?

Chris Hunt
CFO, Fenix Resources

Yeah, it's a good question. I'm sure all the analysts have picked up that we've guided to a sales volume and we've guided to a C1 cash cost on a group basis, but we haven't guided CapEx. That's deliberate. I guess twofold. One, I mentioned earlier that we have a few, not a couple, but a few cost-saving initiatives that we're pursuing. We'll pursue those which involve CapEx, not material CapEx, but we'll pursue those providing we get the right IRR return in terms of our hurdle rate and how we assess these things. We might have a small increase in CapEx there, but then we'd have a more than larger decrease in our operating costs. We're pursuing those opportunities now. Secondly, I just mentioned earlier, we've hit our 4 million - 4.4 million ton run rate. We do think about opportunities post that.

We've got this incredible infrastructure in place today, which John has spoken about at length in terms of our port and logistics. It's remiss of us not to use that as much as we can and increase our volume where we can because we've got the infrastructure in place. There may or may not be other opportunities where we spend CapEx, hence we're not guiding to that at this stage.

Moderator

John, David Brenner from Petra Capital's got one for you. He says the board has proposed an incentive performance rights package for yourself and Craig Mitchell, which has milestones for the FX price to reach up to $1 within the next five years. Clearly, a stronger Iron Ore price will help here, but it implies that Fenix is targeting significant growth, doubling or even tripling of the already tripled current production run rates. Can you talk about where you see this growth coming from?

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

Yeah, thanks David for that question. I can also see on the system, Raymond Wang has asked a similar question, talking about our thoughts on that incentive package. Craig Mitchell is one of Western Australia's most successful entrepreneurs as the founder of Mitchell Corporation and the founder of Newhaul. I am delighted to be working with him as a fellow Executive Director of Fenix . Craig's not here for a salary. If you want to understand the incentive package that's been proposed by the Remuneration and Nominations Committee and is now being put to shareholders for their approval, it's around us thinking like owners, acting like owners. Craig has built a number of the nationally, if not globally, significant transport logistics businesses. That's what he is doing within Fenix with the Fenix-Newhaul team. I am delighted to be working within that structure.

I'm really motivated to build a significant Western Australian logistics bulk commodity and Iron Ore business. We both want to own as much of it as we can, but we want to be rewarded for success. This package is entirely at risk. I mentioned earlier there's double-digit inflation in the Western Australian mining industry. I can tell you that if your shareholders are interested, look around at what's happening in the gold mining space in executive salaries. They're on an absolute tear. Many of those companies are doing extraordinarily well. It comes back to the basis of the question, which obviously they need to be safe, they need to be efficient, but they're also being rewarded by an incredibly strong gold price. Since I joined Fenix , we've seen the Iron Ore price decrease significantly.

It is a challenge running a commodity-based business when you yourself recognize that the commodity you're mining has potentially a negative outlook and manage that business around it. In that environment, Craig and myself are willing to go all out on risk. We're not looking to increase our salary. In fact, we're fixing it at the same level it was eight or nine months ago. In return, we are exposing ourselves to an incentive package which is entirely exposed, as described, to doubling or tripling the share price from its current level over the next five years. I think the Remuneration Committee, the board, and many shareholders that I've spoken to recognize that that isn't going to be achieved by the Iron Ore price. We've seen the Iron Ore price as high as $160 .

While Fenix made very, very good money at those levels, the highest we've seen our share price is in the $40s. We need to transform this business, not the transformation we've done in FY 2025. We are confident we can take this business with our teams to more, not just a dollar-ish, as described in the question, but beyond a dollar. That's not going to happen by the Iron Ore price changing, and it's not going to happen by mining the small deposits we have in our current balance sheet and in our ore inventory at 4 million tons per annum. There is an ongoing transformation required. We need to achieve the vision that we've outlined in order to get there. We're willing to work very hard and stay committed. We're excited about that opportunity.

I'm really pleased with the positive feedback I have received from shareholders in relation to that incentive package. The Remuneration and Nomination Committee worked on that for more than six months. I look forward to the meeting and to delivering the targets.

Moderator

Chris, David Brenner, who likes to share things around, he's got a question for you. He says, some big moves in the working capital as operations get bigger. Year-end receivables from $22 million to $8.5 million, year-end inventory from $7.4 million to $43 million, year-end payables from $30 million to $81 million. Is this now the normalized level of working capital?

Chris Hunt
CFO, Fenix Resources

Good question. The short answer is no. The year-end receivables, we had two ships which were scheduled to go in June. They got deferred to July because of a port surge event, something outside of our control. Our year-end receivables had those two ships gone in, which they were scheduled for, subject to external factors. Our year-end receivables would have been $25 million. In terms of year-end, in terms of the receivables going forward, month on month, we expect a level of around $20 million - $30 million. In terms of the inventory, that is somewhat clearly a function of going from one mine to three mines. $43 million is certainly a sizable number.

When we look at initiatives in how we can reduce our costs, how we can increase our profitability, one of the things that we're looking at leveraging off is, as John said before, our logistics system and the ability to haul and then ship more product. What we're seeing with our mines now going forward is that their strip ratios are decreasing. We're actually getting a lot more ore out, and hence we're getting that build-up of stockpiles. Our challenge is to be able to haul that and ship that faster, which clearly we're looking at. I think in terms of modeling and what David wants to think about and others in terms of modeling inventory, I think 40 is a good number in the short term to think about. In terms of the payables, I think you said it went from 30 to 81.

That's a function of partly due to Beebyn W11 and other infrastructure projects that weren't 100% complete at year-end. We had some CapEx costs that were paid post-year-end because they were still in construction. Also, it's our typical cycle of royalties. We've now got all that year-end. We had two mines online, Shine and Iron Ridge, the year before we had one mine, and royalties are paid quarterly. In terms of the state royalties, the state royalties significantly increased. To get back to his question, in terms of a level, I think a normalized level is between 50 and 60 going forward on a monthly basis.

Moderator

Okay. John Michael Bentley from MST asks some questions on growth. He says, where do you see the key bottlenecks to growing towards 10 million tonnes production? Does the access to rail give you flexibility there? Also, for tonnage, the upper end of guidance is 4.4 million tonnes. Where do you see the opportunity to get towards the top of the range? Is it at one particular mine or across the portfolio?

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

Good questions. I outlined earlier, to continue to grow our production, we need to grow our ore inventory. That's the, before I jump into talking about the really exciting logistics build business and how we can scale that up, the important point to outline is we're looking for more Iron Ore. The bottleneck in our current business isn't the port. We're very confident that the facilities we have there, storage of more than 400,000 tons, access to the only side tipping truck unloader, access to the Mid West Ports Authority rail dumper. We know we can do more than 10 million tons a year from the port. That's an important point to just pause on when we talk about growth and bottlenecks. The Western Australian coast is, you know, there's an abundant development of zones.

Just north of Geraldton, there's the mythical Oakajee Port, which is going to unlock the region around us. Balabala, other ports, Anketell, Dampier, obviously the port that has expanded significantly and is enabling Western Australia to lead the Australian economy is Port Hedland. There are so many stranded projects looking for deep water port solutions. That is what has curtailed the Midwest. We have an existing port of Geraldton. It was actually developed in the 1960s for the first Iron Ore shipment that ever left Australia. We are confident we can do 10 million tons a year. That's not a bottleneck. Those existing facilities are there, and that's exciting. We have a scalable road transport solution. Part of this question was talking about rail. We've just built a roughly 20 km private haul road between the Iron Ridge mine and the Beebyn W11 mine.

That follows on from the private haul road we built to access the Iron Ridge mine several years ago. We see a huge opportunity to continue to expand that private road network to link up these stranded deposits in and around us and in other locations. That provides us a very, very cost-efficient way of moving Iron Ore. We're demonstrating that. We don't believe we need a railway in and around the Midwest. However, yes is the answer to the question about does the railway give us options? Certainly, the rail siding that Mount Gibson built just outside Mullewa at Ruvidini, they use that to do in their best year, I think they did 8 million tons a year. They were hauling from Extension Hill. They were hauling from their mine at Tallering Peak. They were loading onto the railway 100 km from Geraldton at the Ruvidini rail siding.

That removed, you know, obviously in the grounds around us and behind me, you can see there's not a lot of traffic. There's not a lot of congestion, school buses, or traffic lights. Obviously, in the last 100 km into Geraldton, the third largest population center of Western Australia, we see potentially bottlenecks in the pathway from, say, 4 million tons a year, our current run rate, to the opportunity of doing 10. At some point on that 4 to 10 growth pathway, we will start to use railway. That's why we've invested in the Ruvidini rail siding, and that infrastructure originally developed by Mount Gibson, who mined 50 million tons in the Midwest, is going to be crucial in that growth pathway. The bottleneck is not at the port. We don't believe it's on the road networks.

Increasingly, we're looking to access private roads that can handle big tonnages and have really no constraint, certainly to 10 million tons and above. There is a constraint on public roads, but the rail, you know, sharing some of that capacity with rail will help. Certainly, we can mine faster. At the moment, you know, most of our, these are little quarries. We do a fantastic job, low strip ratio mining, you know, one or two diggers and, you know, less than half a dozen haul trucks. We can mine faster. What we need to do is build that inventory and then start growing that business.

Moderator

Just a couple here from Michael and Raymond. How do you see the outlook for Iron Ore? What is Fenix's view on the Iron Ore market currently and going forward?

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

I’ll jump in there. I mentioned earlier that we still see, we’re still not arguing with bulk commodity analysts. It’s their job. We see the long-term forecast continue to outline an $80 - $90 price for Iron Ore. In our budget for the current financial year, we’ve budgeted $90 a ton and a $0.67 exchange rate. It’s very pleasing for us when we look at our July numbers that the Iron Ore price has averaged above $100 . As a consequence, we’re outperforming our own budget. Our confidence in our ability to be able to budget $90 is because we’ve managed and we continue to bring down our costs. That’s internal. I suppose it answers the question in a way. I can’t control the Iron Ore price. I might get confident about it staying at $100.

I might get confident that the industrial complex in China is actually far more robust than some of the bulk commodity analysts think. I would encourage shareholders not to talk to miners about the commodity they mine. I think you’ve got to make your own judgment. I think when you look at Fenix Resources, you can see that we’re very prudent. We hedge where we’re locking in strong margins for our product. Our genuine belief, notwithstanding our ability to hedge, is that our best ability to handle volatility and lower Iron Ore prices is to bring our costs down. That’s about increasing our volumes, looking at the initiatives that Chris mentioned, and just continuing to build the business that you can see we are building. That is all sensible answer to that question.

To be as direct as I like to be, I have been bearish on the Iron Ore price since I joined Fenix . A lot of what we have done, Craig, myself, the board, and the management team, has been about feeling like we are on a burning platform preparing for lower Iron Ore prices. What I can say is that I’m sleeping a lot better at night, and I’m far more comfortable today on the outlook for Iron Ore based on our business and what I see in the global economy. I think we’ve got a wonderful opportunity in the Midwest, and I think we might be getting our timing right in the commodity cycle.

Moderator

You're looking pretty relaxed. I'll give you that. Now, just a question from the system. Are you able to advise shareholders of the ongoing project costs for the housing development in Geraldton?

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

Oh, look, this is a really exciting development. It's an interesting question, obviously, from possibly a Geraldton-based shareholder. If so, fantastic. I mentioned that Geraldton is the third largest population center in Western Australia. We're hauling 4 million tons through the middle of town into the port, which is surrounded by a fishing boat harbor, an important crayfishing industry, a recreational boat harbor, as well as a tourism infrastructure, and basically the town and the residential village. There is a housing crisis in Geraldton. Local councils, the state government, and industry have been talking about it for years and years and years. We have created 300 jobs in the Midwest in taking Fenix from an idea five years ago to its current business. Our biggest challenge in recruiting workers is that we want workers to live and operate in the communities in which we live and work.

Therefore, we've got to house them. The number one challenge for us in attracting mechanics, in attracting drivers, and in attracting the staff that we want to live and work and be part of our team is finding appropriate housing for them. I've been to so many regional development meetings hearing industries complain and ask government for a solution. What Fenix has done is we've gone ahead and found our own solution and have, as I've admitted, somewhat reluctantly been dragged into the property development business. We're really excited about it. I think people in Geraldton who understand the project we're building are really excited about it. We've secured a fantastic residential development block. It's in a great part of town. It's near the beach.

We are going to build ultimately 70 high-quality houses there that in the fullness of time will form part of an increasing quality of available housing in Geraldton. Our need to do that is to recruit. We are growing our workforce, and we need to find houses for people. In terms of the concern that perhaps underpins the question, you know, have you gone crazy and you're spending lots of money on houses when you should be mining Iron Ore or buying trucks? Look, we continue to be really prudent. In the year that we're recording today, the FY 2025 year, we did some pre-works on that development block. It would be an insignificant investment that you saw us make in the year we've just recorded on. In the current financial year, this is a staged development.

We actually obviously have the opportunity to find a partner for that project and take it off balance sheet, but obviously it lends itself to a debt solution. Ultimately, the answer to that question is all 70 houses are roughly a $20 million development. We're going to stage that. In the current year, we'll build half a dozen houses, and it won't be a material use of Fenix Resources cash because it's a project that will be very easy to debt fund. You may see us take those assets off the balance sheet, obviously, by selling them to my workers, selling them to the general community, or we may hold them if we think we need them. As I've described, it's a really, really important part of growing our business. The other thing I'd point out is we're investing in an asset.

One of the hidden things about the value of Fenix is the insured value of our port assets is $200 million. We have $150 million in rolling stock and Newhaul logistics depot assets. We have hard land assets. Ultimately, we may, in fact, have a portfolio of high-quality houses in Geraldton. That's not money that we're burning. It's not pre-strip ratio to mine that we're capitalizing. These are hard assets, and they drive the biggest value we have in Fenix is our people. The people who are safely and efficiently driving a thousand-kilometer round trip from Geraldton to Iron Ridge and back, the people who are operating our mines at an incredible safety record and a huge efficiency, and our corporate staff and our mechanic staff. We want them to be comfortable. We want them to live in the local community.

We want them to be part of a really great and exciting story.

Moderator

Now, conscious of time, so last question also for you, John. Lots of interest in the dividend declaration. If I can get you to answer it briefly, which might be a struggle. The dividend equated to 137% of NPAT. Should we expect a payout policy linked more to free cash flow than NPAT, or the dividend at $0.01 per fully franked final dividend is an increase over last year when no dividend was declared? Last year, the company was focusing on investing in growth. Does the declaration of the dividend represent the management's confidence in the ability to both grow and return capital? Do you see this as a start of a sustainable dividend?

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

Yes.

Moderator

Good.

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

Look, I can't help myself. I think that was the short answer. Chris spoke about this earlier. It's interesting that I mentioned the previous dividend policy. Paying up 140% of NPAT is unusual. It demonstrates our confidence. It also is what Chris referred to as nimble, where we act to circumstances. We made the right decision last year looking at the investment profile and the uncertainty in our business. The answer to the question is we have a dividend policy. Look at it. We want to resort shareholders. The board are all significant shareholders in Fenix. We're building a really exciting business. We've also paid a lot of tax. Not only are we building jobs, building infrastructure, we're also rewarding the state government with significant royalties and the federal government with a lot of tax. That's built up a significant franking credit balance.

We want to access those for our shareholders. You know, I'm a huge fan of a similar stage of Fortescue's development. Andrew Forrest was asked, when is he going to start selling shares? How is he going to get any value out of this idea that the market seems to have enjoyed as his market cap grew? People laughed at him as a development Iron Ore player when he said, I'm intending to pay myself dividends. He now earns more than $1 billion a year at fully franked dividends from his Iron Ore company. The richest people in this country are Iron Ore miners. The biggest companies this country has built have been based on Iron Ore. We have an Iron Ore portfolio. We want to grow it. We also have an amazing logistics business and an infrastructure center in the Geraldton port.

Quickly, I know we've run out of time, Nick, but the questions about Iron Ore and can we do other commodities, yes, is the answer. The Midwest is full of amazing commodities. Go back two years, and you'll see the presentation where I outline them. The reason we're mining Iron Ore at the moment is because it is the highest margin commodity in the Midwest. If that changes, we'll change. When our cash flows change, you'll see us pay higher dividends. It's a pretty simple policy. It's pretty easy for the board to implement.

Moderator

Right. Thanks, Raymond, who'd asked a question. If you do have any other questions, the email address on the Fenix Resources website is where you can put your questions in. Now, John, any closing comments before we do wrap it up?

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

Thank you. My closing comments are to again congratulate our teams, our staff in our West Mine mining business, in our Newhaul logistics businesses, in our corporate team. I can't single anyone out because there are just so many good performers in this business. I'd also like to thank our partners, the Wajarri Yamatji people, who are the traditional owners of the lands on which we mine. That is our foundation partnership. We mine in very sensitive areas, and we do show in a very strong collaboration with the traditional owners. Our contractors, MACA Limited in the Weld Range, Big Yellow, they're doing a great job. The people who support our business in other contracting roles across our logistics, port, and mining businesses, the Mid West Ports Authority, a really crucial piece of Western Australian state infrastructure that we're delighted to be activating.

My board, my fellow director, Craig Mitchell, this is a really exciting opportunity. In my letter to shareholders, I have a little personal reflection at the end of that letter, talking about just how exciting it is to be part of Fenix . Thank you for that opportunity. Thank you to the board. Most importantly, thank you to shareholders. I know many of you might be frustrated if you're contemplating investing in a gold company and you find yourself investing in what was a small-scale Iron Ore miner in the Mid West of Western Australia. Our share price has moved from the mid-20s to the early 30s. Our ambition for shareholder returns is demonstrated by our dividend policy, and it's demonstrated by the trade-off that Craig and I are willing to make in terms of setting ourselves for a fully at-risk share price target ranging up to $1 a share.

I am really motivated, as is Craig, as is the team, to build a business. Stay with us. Appreciate your support. Thank you very much for tuning into this webinar and listening to the Fenix story. I am always interested in feedback, positive and negative. We're looking to build a business that's robust and sustainable, and we can't do that without our partners at every level. We work for our shareholders. Thank you very much, Mick.

Moderator

Thank you.

John Welborn
Executive Chairman, Fenix Resources

Look forward to future opportunities.

Moderator

Perfect. That does conclude today's webinar. Thank you, John. Thanks, Chris. Thanks to everyone for your time. Enjoy your day.

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