Good morning and thank you for joining us this morning. My name is Ed Alexander, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Inghams, and it is my pleasure to welcome you to our FY 2025 Results presentation. On behalf of Inghams, I would like to acknowledge the traditional owners, both past and present, as custodians of this land that we are meeting on today. Joining me for today's presentation is Gary Mallett, our Chief Financial Officer, and our Chief Operating Officer, Anne-Marie Mooney. At the conclusion of the formal presentation, we will take any questions you may have on our results, the business, and our outlook for financial year 2026. As you know, Andrew Reeves stepped down as CEO and Managing Director of Inghams at the conclusion of FY 2025. I would like to take the opportunity to recognize the tremendous contribution made by Andrew to the Inghams business during his tenure.
Andrew stepped into the role when Inghams needed him most, leading the business through the unprecedented challenges posed by the global pandemic, successfully stabilizing operations and returning the company to strong profitability. Andrew made major strides in reshaping and building the culture of the business. His commitment to doing things the right way set the standard for how we operate. Andrew leaves behind a remarkable legacy after an extraordinary 40 years in business. On behalf of the entire Inghams business, I would like to express our deepest thanks and gratitude to Andrew for his exceptional leadership and wish him every future success. Turning now to the results for FY 2025. Inghams delivered FY 2025 EBITDA pre-AASB 16 of AUD 236.4 million, slightly above the prior corresponding period and representing a solid performance despite challenging market conditions in Australia in the final quarter.
While group volumes declined, NSP increased slightly and EBITDA per kilo grew 1.8%. Feed costs declined AUD 57.2 million, and our focus on cost discipline delivered good results, with operational expenses excluding feed costs increasing by only 0.3%. The Australian business faced headwinds from the Woolworths supply agreement changes and broader cost-of-living pressures affecting consumer demand. That said, we made very strong progress diversifying our customer portfolio. Our New Zealand operation delivered exceptional growth, with EBITDA pre-AASB 16 up 14.3% to AUD 52.7 million, underpinned by volume and NSP growth and reflecting favorable market conditions and successful brand investments. We settled the acquisition of Bostock Brothers in July 2024. The integration continues on track, and the business is performing in line with expectations. While near-term conditions remain challenging, our operational discipline and strategic positioning support confidence in our medium-term outlook. This table summarizes the key financial outcomes during the period.
You will notice that certain key indicators are lower than the prior corresponding period, notably in Australia. Our New Zealand business made a strong contribution in FY 2025, and we are now realizing the benefits of the strategy that we have been implementing, including the acquisition of Bostock Brothers and investments in promotions and branding. FY 2025 was something of a tale of two markets. Group core poultry volumes were down 1.4%, driven by a 2.5% decline in Australian volumes, partially offset by strong growth of 5.2% through New Zealand, which was aided by strong retail channel performance and the Bostock Brothers acquisition. Australia faced headwinds in retail, particularly during the second half as we transitioned to the new Woolworths supply agreement. However, we did observe some positive momentum in QSR, with new business wins driving growth in the second half.
Group export sales were down 8.6%, largely due to temporary market closures due to avian influenza outbreaks at non-Inghams farms. Group core poultry net selling prices increased by 0.55% to $6.31. However, as you can see, group NSP declined sequentially in the second half, down 96 basis points. In Australia, pricing increased slightly across FY 2025, but we saw pressure emerge in the second half, resulting in a 2.3% decline compared to the first half. In contrast, our New Zealand business delivered strong NZD denominated price growth of 2.9%. The Bostock Brothers acquisition was a key contributor here, adding 2.3 percentage points to New Zealand growth and 32 basis points to group NSP overall. Looking at performance by channel, retail remained solid with growth of 2.1%. Wholesale, however, declined by 9.2%, reflecting the broader dynamics in the Australian market.
Before I hand to Gary to go through the financials, I wanted to comment on the performance of the business between the first and second half of financial year 2025. In Australia, our trading performance deteriorated meaningfully as we progressed through the fourth quarter. While lost Woolworths volumes were largely replaced, the shift to a lower margin mix, weaker wholesale pricing, and softer retail demand late in the year drove a meaningful deterioration in Q4 earnings. In contrast, our New Zealand business delivered strong results with the successful Bromley Park integration, reducing farming costs, effective marketing investment driving brand performance, and higher red meat prices improving poultry's relative value proposition. As a result, we saw margin expansion and improved demand. I will now hand to Gary.
Thanks, Ed, and good morning everyone. Commencing with our profit and loss on an as-reported basis.
Ed outlined the changes in core poultry volume and NSP. As a result of these movements and the 10.3% decline in the external feed revenue due to the combination of lower feed pricing, which of course benefits our core poultry business and volumes, total revenue fell 1.5% to AUD 3.15 billion. EBITDA on an as-reported basis declined 15.3% to AUD 392 million, largely as a result of the significant AUD 60.8 million reduction in AASB 16 charges, arising mainly from the planned conversion of 121 contract growers to variable performance-based contracts over the past two years. Underlying EBITDA pre-AASB 16 was AUD 0.1 million higher than FY 2024. Total costs showed modest growth of 0.8%. There are several factors in this outcome worth noting. Internal feed costs declined AUD 57.2 million due to improvements in market pricing of key feed inputs over the past 12 months.
There was an additional AUD 60.8 million operating cost impact due to the above-mentioned conversion of contract growers, although this was largely offset by lower AASB 16 depreciation and interest charges, while total other costs, excluding feed and AASB 16 items, increased by only AUD 7.2 million despite inflationary pressures. This was largely due to our stringent focus on cost management initiatives and operational efficiencies. In summary, despite volume headwinds, we maintained pricing discipline, demonstrated strong cost control, and delivered significant feed cost savings, which has supported our underlying earnings for the year. Turning now to the balance sheet. Our balance sheet remains sound. Working capital saw an increase of AUD 15.5 million from additional processed poultry inventory affecting the challenging fourth quarter Australian trading conditions and higher prepayments due mainly to the timing of annual insurance renewals.
Right of use assets and lease liabilities have both declined significantly versus the PCP from the previously mentioned conversion of grower contracts from fixed to performance-based variable contracts. Net debt increased by AUD 82.5 million, including the settlement of the acquisition of Bostock Brothers in New Zealand and the delivery of our capital investment program to support future growth. Moving now to cash flow performance. Cash conversion remains strong at 97%, slightly lower than FY 2024. CapEx and acquisitions totaled AUD 135.4 million, with AUD 42.5 million of core and high-growth project investment, and as noted earlier, the settlement of the Bostock Brothers acquisition for AUD 31.3 million in July 2024. Dividends paid in the period were lower and relate to the final FY 2024 dividend of AUD 0.08 per share and the interim FY 2025 dividend of AUD 0.11. Both dividends were fully franked.
AASB 16 interest and principal payments declined AUD 77 million due to the conversion of contract growers to more performance-based variable contracts and the acquisition of the previously leased Bolivar primary processing plant. Tax and interest payments were also higher in the period. Now turning to our capital expenditure. Our capital allocation strategy demonstrates disciplined investment in both operational continuity and strategic growth initiatives. During FY 2025, staying business CapEx was AUD 61.6 million, which is basically 100% of pre-AASB 16 depreciation, and reflects a catch-up in outstanding projects which arose as a result of the constraints we experienced during the COVID period. Our investing capital of AUD 42.5 million has been focused on automation and operational efficiency improvements across both Australia and New Zealand. Notable projects included completing our Amarina Breeder Triangle facility. Automation initiatives were AUD 16.3 million in Australia. Our Inglebern value-enhanced decoupling project, enhancing our processing flexibility.
The Lisaro fully cooked line upgrade, expanding our capacity, and AUD 9.8 million in New Zealand automation projects. The capital investment is reflected in our balance sheet metrics on the next slide. Our leverage ratio sits within our target range of one to two times, increasing to 1.8 times due to the investments previously mentioned. We also strengthened our financial position during the period through a successful refinancing, as mentioned at the half. We've increased our total facilities by AUD 200 million and extended the weighted maturity by approximately 2.4 years. This provides us with funding flexibility to progress our operational and automation investment programs whilst positioning us to capitalize on strategic opportunities as they emerge. This leads to our capital management outcomes. We already covered many of the details in today's presentation, and our capital management strategy is serving us well.
Our sustaining CapEx is tracking well against our target range versus depreciation, sorry, well against, not above, and we continue to execute on several core and high-growth investments. As previously mentioned, today we have also declared a fully franked final dividend of AUD 0.08 per share. Turning now to the current feed market dynamics. Feed costs are one of our largest input costs. During FY 2025, we benefited from declining commodity prices. Observed market pricing saw Australian wheat down approximately 10% and soy meal down around 17% year on year. Looking ahead, current external forecasts suggest continued good grain supply with record wheat production expected globally and strong Brazilian and soybean crops. ABAR-ERES forecasts Australian wheat production at 30.6 million tonnes, which while down 11%, if achieved, would still be above the 10-year average.
These forecasts suggest continued moderation in feed costs, though we maintain our proven forward purchasing strategy with three to nine months' coverage to manage security of supply and price volatility. As regular followers of Inghams will know, the market pricing data shown on the slide represents broad commodity benchmarks. Our actual feed pricing differed from these market indicators due to a variety of factors relating to the purchasing and pricing of delivered grain and soybean meal that we use, as well as the level of forward cover that we may hold at any given point in time. I will now hand back to Ed to discuss the segment performance.
Thank you, Gary. Our Australian operations faced a challenging year with core poultry volumes declining 2.5% and revenue down 2.6% to AUD 2.64 billion.
The primary driver was the transition to the new Woolworths supply agreement, which has temporarily impacted volumes, with retail volume declining by four kilotonnes. As noted earlier, we have successfully secured new business primarily across our retail and QSR customer base, and I believe we are well positioned to secure further new business in FY 2026. While we were successful in replacing loss volumes, increased promotional intensity and pricing pressures have been margin dilutive in the short term. As a result, Australia recorded a small increase in core poultry NSP of 0.5%. On the cost side, our management initiatives delivered strong results. Total costs fell by AUD 61.7 million, or 2.4%, with internal feed costs down $49.8 million on the back of lower input prices and SG&A reducing by 18.3%, more than offsetting cost growth in other areas.
As a result, underlying EBITDA margin was broadly steady at 7%, reflecting the business's operational resilience during this period of transition. New Zealand delivered strong growth, with core poultry volumes increasing by 5.2% and revenue rising 4.0% at AUD 512.3 million. A key contributor was the acquisition of Bostock Brothers, which strengthened our market position, added three percentage points to volume growth, and supported strong retail channel growth of 11.3%. Core poultry NSP in New Zealand dollars improved 2.9%. Retail pricing increased by 7.7%, although this was partially offset by declines across the combined wholesale, food service, and export channels. External feed volumes fell 7.9% as a result of reduced external customer business, though this was partly offset by increased internal demand from Bromley Park Hatcheries. Total costs increased by AUD 11.6 million.
Internal feed costs improved by AUD 7.4 million due to lower input prices, while our results also reflected a full year of Bostock Brothers operating costs of AUD 19.8 million following the completion of the acquisition in July 2024. Pleasingly, our underlying pre-AASB 16 EBITDA margin expanded by 93 basis points to 10.3%, highlighting both strong operational leverage and the successful integration of Bostock Brothers. I will now hand over to Anne-Marie to discuss our investment program and sustainability.
Thanks, Ed, and good morning. Our network investment blueprint directly supports our key aims of expanding capacity, improving efficiency, and supporting value growth. It outlines a comprehensive multi-year investment program across our primary processing facilities, scaling to around AUD 120 million over the program duration. Our investment focuses on automation, strategic infrastructure upgrades, and new processing capabilities. We're prioritizing automation in areas with the highest labor demand and those that closely align with key customer plans to drive significant efficiency improvements across our processing network. These investments will strengthen our leadership position in the poultry industry, enhance our competitive differentiation, drive operational resilience, reduce labor costs, and align with evolving customer expectations while demonstrating our commitment to quality, innovation, and sustainability. At Osborne Park in WA, we are introducing an automated cut-up processing capability to increase speed and reduce bottlenecks.
With a $12 million investment, this project is expected to deliver very attractive returns in both financial and capability terms. The scope includes new big bird and small bird overhead cut-up lines, automated boning machines, and vision camera grading systems. Key benefits include increased cut-up processing speed, elimination of manual double handling, removal of work-in-progress bottlenecks, and significant labor and yield improvements. Importantly, this creates the foundation for stage two expansion as we move towards self-sufficiency in our Western Australian operations. Implementation is well underway with equipment orders placed in the second half of 2025, pre-installation works in the first half of 2026, and commissioning targeted for early FY 2027. Our Murarrie facility represents our largest single productivity enhancement investment at AUD 40 million. This comprehensive upgrade includes three automated cut-up lines with inline deboning.
The benefits are substantial, including yield improvements, significant reduction in labor reliance, and improved safety and quality outcomes. Importantly, it also unlocks our ability to process big birds from the small bird line. Our implementation timeline shows work commencing in September 2026, equipment orders in Q1 2026, and installation beginning in Q1 2027, with completion anticipated in the second half of 2027. This project represents a transformational upgrade to our largest processing facility. The Te Aroha QSR automation project represents our continued commitment to operational excellence in New Zealand and is expected to deliver a compelling ROIC whilst positioning us for future QSR market growth. The new overhead cut-up line replaces four circular auto saws, producing consistent nine-cut chicken portions to exacting standards, in addition to labor efficiency and safety benefits. The project forms part of our broader New Zealand automation pipeline.
Our KFC line is currently commissioning, with an investment in mortar jet cutters following in October. Looking ahead, we're progressing new business cases for other automation projects over the next 18- 24 months. Each investment systematically addresses labor efficiency, yield optimization, and capacity expansion, whilst maintaining our focus on animal welfare and food safety standards. I'm proud to highlight Inghams' continued leadership in people safety, animal welfare, sustainability, and food quality throughout FY 2025. Our safety performance improved, with total recordable injury frequency rate declining by 3.6% to 4.25%. We maintained 100% RSPCA approved and SPCA certified certifications across all broiler farming facilities, and we achieved an average Global Food Safety Initiative (BRC) rating of A or better, with 80% of sites earning AA ratings.
Significant sustainability milestones include moving to 100% renewable energy in our New Zealand operations and achieving climate-active, carbon-neutral certification for our Marion Bay brand, Tasmania's first carbon-neutral certified chicken. We exceeded our 50% recycled content packaging target, achieved 28% waste intensity reduction, and reduced water intensity by 2.7%. Our 2025 sustainability report will be published with our annual report in October. I will now hand back to Ed.
Thank you, Anne-Marie. Turning now to our guidance and outlook. FY 2025 was a year of significant change for Inghams , with the completion of the Woolworths contract renewal, onboarding of new customer volumes, and challenging market conditions, particularly in the fourth quarter. While lost Woolworths volumes were largely replaced, the shift to a lower margin mix, weaker wholesale pricing, and softer retail demand late in the year drove a meaningful deterioration in Q4 earnings. We have been and will continue to act decisively to address these issues. We are reducing excessive inventory and recalibrating production settings to match demand in each channel, and we are implementing cost reductions across the business. While these initiatives will impact H1 earnings, they are expected to underpin a stronger H2 performance. Inghams Group retains a strong competitive position, built on attractive market fundamentals and industry-leading capabilities.
The performance of our New Zealand business illustrates what is possible when the fundamentals are executed well, with EBITDA doubling between FY 2023 and FY 2025, significant gains in customer partnership rankings, and reduced staff turnover. This success was driven by a systematic focus on people, on partnerships, on innovation, and on network strength. Our FY 2026 strategy represents a disciplined response to current market conditions and will set a strong foundation for long-term value creation and a return to profitable growth. Our focus centers on three priorities. Firstly, matching supply with demand to improve market economics and promotional effectiveness. Secondly, delivering outstanding customer service to maintain existing volume and win new business. Finally, optimizing our cost base to offset inflation and rebuild margin. While FY 2026 will be a year of disciplined execution through challenging market conditions, these strategic choices position us strongly for long-term value creation.
Today, we are providing FY 2026 guidance for underlying EBITDA pre-AASB 16 of between AUD 215 million-AUD $230 million. Earnings are expected to be significantly weighted toward the second half, reflecting both the impact of weaker Q4 2025 trading conditions and the timing of benefits from the operational changes underway. Our FY 2026 outlook is shaped by the following factors. Group core poultry volumes are expected to be slightly higher in FY 2026. In Australia, we expect growth in non-Woolworths retail and QSR, partially offset by a targeted reduction into wholesale. We expect New Zealand to continue to perform well, supported by strong grant performance and favorable category conditions. Net selling prices are expected to be slightly lower in FY 2026, reflecting recent customer pricing outcomes, wholesale market conditions, and competitive intensity for new business. Operating costs, excluding feed, are expected to rise modestly in FY 2026.
While general inflation would otherwise drive higher costs, our cost reduction initiatives across labor, procurement, and site-level operations are expected to deliver annualized savings of AUD 60 million- AUD 80 million below what costs would have otherwise been. Feed costs are expected to provide a modest benefit, contributing to second half margin recovery, and capital investment is expected to be between AUD 80 million- AUD 100 million. Overall, our FY 2026 outlook demonstrates a disciplined response to current market dynamics while prioritizing customer relationships, disciplined cost management, and positioning the business for sustainable, profitable growth looking forward. That concludes the formal presentation. I will now hand back to the operator, and we will take your questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Ed. Participants can ask both text and live audio questions during today's call. To ensure all participants have an opportunity to ask a question, we will initially limit questions to three per participant, following which you can rejoin the queue to ask further questions, time permitting. To ask a text question, select the messaging tab, type your question in the box towards the top of the screen, and then press the send button. To ask a live audio question, press the request to speak button at the top of the broadcast window. The broadcast will be replaced by the audio questions interface. Press join queue, and if prompted, select allow in the pop-up to grant access to your microphone. I will introduce each caller by name and ask you to go ahead. You will then hear a beep indicating your microphone is live.
Our first question today comes from Ben Gilbert from Jarden. Ben, please go ahead after the beep.
Good morning, Ed and Gary and team. Just the first one, I'm just really trying to dig into Q4. It looks like it's a pretty material deterioration, and one of your customers, or a QSR operator, talked to better margins in Q4, and it sounds like they've got better terms on poultry. I'm just interested in what I appreciate the wholesale side, but have you had to give up more than you might usually have around feed price reductions, etc.? Because if I then sort of connect that into 2026, typically you guys, when feed prices come down, you do get a bit of a tailwind. I'm just trying to piece what exactly outside of wholesale pricing has been any terms impacting Q4, and why aren't you expecting to get any feed benefits into fiscal 2026?
Yeah, thanks, thanks Ben. I look at the Q4 deterioration really driven by three drivers. The first, obviously, at the end of February, we had the final transition of the Woolworths volume. Whilst, as we said at the Macquarie update, that was largely replaced, there was a mixed impact that then flowed through to the Q4 earnings profile. Secondly, we made an assumption that our competitors would switch supply to fund the new Woolworths business, but instead they set processing volumes incrementally, which really drove the excess, I think, in Q4 and then subsequently impacted pricing both at a wholesale economics level as well as from the effectiveness of our promotional levers. Finally, we saw this retail market soften sort of materially, I suppose, in Q4 as well. I think the whole combination of that really meant that we had less volume flowing through the retail channel.
We had more volume flowing through the wholesale channel, all at a time when there was a pretty material decline in wholesale average sale price. That's really how I'd sort of picture the Q4 outlook.
The feed, and typically you've appreciated you've got some pass-through to consumers and your customers, but typically you do get a bit of a benefit from feed costs and lay down. In most cases, I think you also typically have longer bedded hedging than your peers. Historically, you've got a bit of a benefit as feed falls. Doesn't look like you're expecting that this time.
Hi Ben, it's Gary. I think there's always that timing difference on the way down. No, I don't think that that's right. I mean, we've absolutely shared some of that feed benefit with our customers, but I don't think it's different to the historical.
I've just finalized for me, thanks Gary. Just on this instance, just around the end market discussions, there's been a lot of, if you're looking at QSR, just an enormous amount of people now talking about big roll-up plans and McDonald's, et cetera, all talking that poultry's outperforming within their portfolio. Poultry typically performs better within grocery, and I think they've called it out as being stronger given its lower value protein. I'm surprised that the market's deteriorated. Is it the market or the competitive standpoint more so with your peers keeping putting more volume in?
Are you talking specific to our observation around a softening of retail volume in Q4, Ben?
Yeah, broadly in the market as opposed to Inghams specifically.
Yeah. I'd say two things. Firstly, I think the long-term proposition of poultry remains very true, which is that we see long-term growth. It remains sustainable, versatile, and has a pretty significant cost advantage versus other proteins, and we're certainly seeing the benefits of that in New Zealand at the moment. From a long-term perspective, I don't see any change. From a short-term perspective, we also hear from the QSRs about driving poultry. My sense is that in Q4 in particular, there was somewhat of a decline in consumer confidence, and also there was a binding of cost-of-living pressures, and the combination of that meant that we saw an impact. Obviously for us, that was also coupled with the changes in the Woolworths contract. That's our observation. I don't think anything changes structurally on a long-term basis. Short-term, we do feel like there was a softening.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Craig Woolford from MST Marquee. Craig, please go ahead after the beep.
Good morning, Ed and Gary. Can I just clarify, you've referred to it as an operational reset. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the pressure that you see, we saw in the fourth quarter and you're seeing in FY 2026. Do you see it as issues that are transitory in nature, or is there a more fundamental kind of pressure of competition? That comment you made in response to the earlier question around competitors switching supply, but instead increased supply, does sound like a more fundamental concern.
No, not just transitory in nature, I think, Craig. From what we've had to do, we built up too much inventory in Q4 because of all the reasons identified. We're now having to slightly reduce our production settings to match supply with demand. We also need to continue to look at what our cost optimization activities are. From that perspective, I see it as very transitory. There's also an element where, whilst there's a lot of benefits with a more diversified customer base, you also have some supply chain inefficiencies that come as a result of that. That's something that is transitory and we'll just deal with, particularly over the first half of this financial year.
Okay, that makes sense. Just clarifying on pricing, I'm reading from slide nine as I ask this question just around the performance in the second half. It reads like NSP was down in the second half in Australia versus the first half due to weaker wholesale and food service pricing. The wholesale will have been more volumes in that wholesale channel as well as lower prices, no doubt, like a mix effect. Just explain some of the other factors because it looks like pricing was decent in retail. QSR, there's no comment, but you know, was food service pricing down or was it just the wholesale component?
It was predominantly wholesale. That's the main game here. You can see that on the next slide on page 10, what's happened. Retail relatively flat. Food service is just in the category, but it was wholesale that's the factor.
It's just how you define the category. Okay. Is there an update you can provide as to just the share that wholesale has now represented? Because the overall volume share of food service wholesale export hasn't changed dramatically. Is there much of a channel shift in your volumes, or is it just the pricing within that wholesale channel?
In picture, not really, but again, on that next slide, page 10, you can see there's a shift from retail into wholesale over that Q4 period. I think we're expecting to see that that'll correct itself into FY 2026 as well. Big picture, not really much change, but you can see on slide 10 that in the detail, there's little in, especially Q4.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Phil Kimber from EAP. Phil, please go ahead after the beep.
Hi guys. The first question was just around, you said there the fourth quarter you really saw a, you know, a consumer value change. I'm just wondering if it was a change in the consumer value set, which I would have thought has been going on for a while, or was it more a change in the supermarket's view of that and reaction to the consumer environment? Just wondering if you could clarify what you meant around the fourth quarter change.
Look, Phil, what we just observed was a softening of demand, particularly through that retail channel in the fourth quarter. I don't think anything structurally changed as it relates to customer perception of poultry or otherwise. As I say, based on our information, it was a consumer confidence from a macro perspective, as well as a continuation of cost-of-living pressures. To some extent, I think we're increasingly seeing the supermarkets responding as well to those two drivers.
Okay, it's not just your data, you're saying the overall market data as well is what you're referring to.
Yeah, Phil, that's exactly right. That's right.
Yeah. Just on the feed cost expected to deliver a modest benefit, I think you did, I think it was AUD 57 million or AUD 68 million in FY 2025. In terms of thinking about the shape of that, I assume modest means less than what you did in, a smaller incremental benefit than you got in FY 2025, if I can just sort of confirm that thinking. Secondly, in terms of how it's sort of phased, I would have thought more of it's going to skew to the first half than the second, but I could be wrong. Just anything on that would be awesome. Thanks.
Yes, I think modest is less, as you pointed out. Yes, I also would agree that in the comp to PCP, it would be more in the first half.
Do you expect some benefit in the second half still on versus PCP, or is it sort of washed its way through by then?
Second half's a long time into the future, so hard to be predicted. Based on our, I guess, thoughts as to go, we're seeing it relatively flat through FY 2026.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ajay Mariwamy from Macquarie. AJ, please go ahead after the beep.
Morning team. Just in relation to that ASP decline you expect to see in FY 2026, how does that compare to where you see market ASP in poultry being, and what's the view on the level of supply going forward in FY 2026?
If I understand your question, Ajay, I suppose what we saw was the decline in ASP through the fourth quarter for all the reasons identified. What we are seeing is having made decisions at the back end of that quarter as well as the beginning of this financial year to match our supply with demand. We are starting to now see improvements that are flowing through to pricing, you know, from a wholesale economics standpoint. We expect that to continue to improve as the half progresses. I think from an overall pricing perspective, we expect it to be marginally down, but that's largely driven by the exit run rate. We are seeing improvements as we stand here today.
I guess if I ask it in terms of relative to where competitors are sitting in terms of ASP, if you have any visibility on that, is your ASP decline sort of in line with where your competitors would be into those channels, or is there something else driving an ASP decline because there, for example, you might be sitting slightly higher in this current period?
Yeah, look, I'm not sure what our competitors' pricing is.
Sure. In terms of the promotional environment at the moment, do we see that potentially intensifying given that consumer sentiment is still a bit soft, particularly around chicken, or given that other meats such as lamb and beef are sort of seeing a little bit of price inflation, do we expect to see that promotional environment to soften a little bit and any margin implications to that?
I mean, I think positive, in many respects, positively, we've seen over the last few weeks some pretty aggressive $8.50 pricing across all the retailers on breast fillet, which is certainly helping to improve our relative market economics. I think whilst there's still some deterioration in demand, you expect retailers are going to keep driving poultry as the lowest cost protein. I remain in the view, Ajay, that it's positive. In terms of price relativity, a big driver of the New Zealand outcome for the half was because of the significant price increase on red meat. If that flows over to Australia, I think it creates, you know, some significant positive tailwinds for us.
Your next question comes from Evan Karatzas from UBS. Evan, please go ahead after the beep.
Okay, thanks. I just want to confirm this as you're seemingly hinting at it. The original plan for those excess volumes in the fourth quarter, or you had in the fourth quarter, was to put it into the retail channel, but then that channel declined, I don't know, 10% odd in the fourth quarter. Is that correct?
No. Look, the original plan, what did we assume? We assumed that the competitors who picked up the Woolworths business from Inghams would pull some of their volume from other channels and use it to fund the Woolworths volume. Therefore, we didn't completely downset or reduce our production volumes to match the lost business. As it happened, our competitors set incremental business. We didn't fully downset, and that was one of the driving factors behind a long or excessive production or volume hitting the wholesale market. In addition to that, a softening of retail consumption drove down pricing.
Okay, why in your view do you think, I guess you were outcompeted or lost those volumes to the other channels, to your competitors is what it sounds like. What happened there?
You're talking about retail, Evan?
You made a comment that you didn't think your competitors had excess supply, but they did, and they were clearly able to place it, and you weren't and had to take it to wholesale. I'm just understanding why that was.
I don't think we said that they placed it in retail. I think what you saw is.
Okay, I'll move on. You're saying slight price declines in your FY 2026 assumption. Obviously, the four key price lines, price declines are a fair bit more than slight. Can you just marry that up? Are you expecting a recovery from current pricing, even though you've still got, I guess, excess supply that needs to find a home? Just trying to understand that, please.
Sorry, just one more time, Evan?
Okay. Your guidance implies a slight decline in pricing in the FY 2026 assumptions. Obviously, the four queues, the price declines are a bit more than slight. I'm just trying to marry that up. Are you expecting a recovery from the current pricing levels?
Exactly. We'll see some recovery during the year, but overall, we still expect it'll be down year on year. Therefore, your first half will be more impacted than your second half flowing through there.
Thank you. There are no further questions, so I will hand back to Ed to close the meeting.
Thank you, Josh. On behalf of the Inghams management team, I would like to thank everyone for joining us today, and we look forward to meeting many of you over the coming weeks. Thank you very much.