Jumbo Interactive Limited (ASX:JIN)
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May 1, 2026, 11:49 AM AEST
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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Aug 25, 2023

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Jumbo Interactive FY 2023 results briefing. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Mike Veverka, CEO and Founder. Please go ahead.

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Good morning, everyone, and welcome. Let me begin by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land in which we meet, and pay our respects to all elders, past, present, and emerging. Today, I am joined by our CFO, Dave Todd, to present our financial results for FY 2023. Turning now to our FY 2023 report card. We delivered improvements on most key metrics, most notably the EBITDA margin. The Powerball run in June this year, including the AUD 60 million and AUD 100 million jackpots, helped us achieve an EBITDA margin, excluding the impact of acquisitions, of 51%. This was ahead of the 48% margin guidance in May and ahead of the original margin guidance range of 48%-50% we set at the beginning of the year. Turning to the key highlights for the year.

The weak jackpot run for most of the second half resulted in flat revenue on the PCP. However, the pricing changes announced in May and the late jackpot run led to an overall resilient Lottery Retailing performance. Despite a more challenging environment for the consumer, our underlying player health metric on like-for-like jackpots remains robust. SaaS continues to deliver good growth, and it was great to see Lotterywest achieve an 8% TTV growth in the year amid volatile jackpots. Both Stride and StarVale continue to perform in line with our expectations, and it was pleasing to see Gatherwell sales return to growth in the fourth quarter. The cost line benefited from our lower marketing costs, purely a function of the jackpot environment. Notwithstanding this, we remain disciplined around costs generally. The balance sheet remains in good shape and provides flexibility to drive further growth.

We ended the year with no debt, having fully repaid the amount drawn for StarVale in November last year. Moving to the numbers, group TTV and revenue were up 29% and 14%, while underlying EBITDA and NPATA increased 7% and 9%, respectively, and includes eight months of StarVale. The lower underlying EBITDA margin of 49.6% primarily reflects the impact of the higher service fee paid to The Lottery Corporation and the impact of Stride and StarVale. Free cash flow was up 21%, and the board declared a final fully franked dividend of AUD 0.20 per share, taking the total dividend for the year to AUD 0.43 per share, slightly above the PCP. Active players remain our North Star. This slide shows our growth in active players, including the contribution from Stride and StarVale.

The active players we inherit through acquisitions provide the foundation for future growth. The more active players we have on our platform, the more tickets we sell and the more we grow revenue. Our digital skills and continuously improving player experience keep players active, in turn, satisfying our lottery partners and minimizing our contract risks. Moving on to Lottery Retailing. Online sales of lottery tickets increased 70 basis points to 38.4%, impacted by the unfavorable jackpot run. We saw a similar trend in the U.K. coming out of COVID, where there was only modest growth in the 2022 financial year before increasing around 3 percentage points to 45% in 2023. There were 42 Powerball Oz Lotto large jackpots in FY 2023, with the average value per jackpot down 9.3% to AUD 36.9 million.

These figures, however, mask the significant volatility in jackpots observed across the year. FY 2023 included only five jackpots greater than AUD 50 million, compared to 13 in the PCP. First quarter and third quarter large jackpots were relatively subdued, reflecting the third and fourth lowest average value per jackpot periods, respectively, in four years. Conversely, the second quarter and the month of June 2023 saw a strong recovery in jackpots and benefited from a AUD 160 million and a AUD 100 million dollar Powerball, respectively. This is our usual chart showing our track record of delivering consistent growth. Overall, the weak jackpot run has affected all key metrics. Having said that, during the large jackpots, we didn't skip a beat with significant improvements in our key metrics. Moving to SaaS, where active players and underlying TTV were up 12% and 18%, respectively.

On Lotterywest, we are pleased on how the channel is performing, with 8% growth versus the PCP. We are in active discussions regarding the future of the channel beyond the current term... Based on our discussions with Lotterywest, we anticipate the RFP will be issued towards the end of the calendar year or early next year. Moving to Managed Services, which principally includes the contribution from Gatherwell, Stride, and StarVale. In Managed Services, we provide both the lottery platform and lottery Managed Services to charities looking to establish or enhance a lottery program. In the U.K., for example, we now have access to the full spectrum of charity lottery management and raffle services across grassroots, mid-market, and enterprise clients. Over the last three years, the segment has developed from approximately AUD 2 million in revenue to AUD 23 million on a pro forma basis.

Similarly, EBITDA has grown from AUD 0.4 million to AUD 7.7 million. As I've said before, we are limited by the number of new lottery opportunities in Australia and hence our focus on M&A. This slide outlines how we think about M&A at Jumbo. Typically, the businesses that we acquire are well-established, founder-led, or family-run businesses, have long-standing relationships with their charity clients, are profitable and have been so for a long time, and importantly, we see an opportunity to drive growth and generate scale using our technology, lottery expertise, and existing capabilities. We are very focused and active on future M&A, but want to ensure the terms are right and the fit with existing operations is ideal. I'll now hand over to Dave to take you through the financials.

David Todd
CFO, Jumbo Interactive

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Starting with the underlying EBITDA, which was down approximately 3%, excluding the contributions from Stride and StarVale for 12 months and eight months, respectively. The main driver of the decline was the step up in the service fee paid to The Lottery Corporation, which was partially offset by lower operating costs. Revenue growth was impacted by the unfavorable jackpot run. The underlying EBITDA margin, excluding the impact of acquisitions, was 51%, above the top end of our original 48%-50% guidance range. The performance was mainly due to the strong Powerball jackpot run in June and good cost control. The inclusion of Stride and StarVale had a 140 basis points drag on the underlying margin. Turning to the segments and starting with Lottery Retailing .

TTV was down 2.5% on the PCP as a result of the unfavorable jackpot run and our tendency to perform well when there are large jackpots. Despite lower TTV, revenue was flat, reflecting product mix, a lower proportion of Powerball versus the PCP, and the impact of pricing changes announced in May. The 1.4% increase in EBITDA reflects a higher cost of sales due to the step up in The Lottery Corporation service fee, more than offset by the lower marketing costs. Moving to SaaS, where TTV and external revenue were up 17.6% and 15.3% respectively, with the revenue margin down slightly. Financial year 2023 SaaS, TTV, and revenue benefited from the contribution from St Helena Hospice in the U.K., which was on a full run rate basis.

Excluding this effect on a like-for-like basis, TTV and revenue were up 13% and 11%, respectively. The EBITDA margin fell to 65.3%, mainly due to a lower inter-segment fee from Lottery Retailing due to a contraction in TTV and higher employee and technology costs. Moving on to Managed Services, which reflects the full 12-month contribution from Stride and eight months for StarVale, following their completion on 1 June and 1 November 2022, respectively. Gatherwell's performance was disappointing, with TTV down 4% on a constant currency basis and revenue down 9%. Although we did see an improvement in average weekly ticket sales in the fourth quarter of the 2023 financial year. On a constant currency basis, both Stride and StarVale's revenue and EBITDA performance for the 12 months to 30 June 2023 was modestly ahead of the PCP.

Underlying OpEx, excluding the impact of Stride and StarVale, fell 1.8%, primarily due to lower marketing costs in Lottery Retailing , which were a function of the jackpot environment. Excluding Lottery Retailing marketing costs, cost growth was contained to 4.7%, primarily due to lower-than-expected employee costs and good cost control across the organization. Employee costs were impacted by two factors. Firstly, lower short-term incentives due to NPAT growth being below the minimum hurdle rate. This resulted in a circa AUD 1 million saving versus the PCP. And secondly, lower headcount due to the delayed onboarding of staff, in particular, the impact of a recruitment fee freeze that was initiated earlier this calendar year and some internal restructuring. Turning now to the balance sheet, where we continue to maintain a strong position underpinned by the organic cash generation of the business.

A couple of key call-outs: in November, we drew AUD 15 million from our senior debt facility to fund the StarVale acquisition, and this was fully repaid before 30 June 2023. The significant increase in non-current assets reflects an increase in intangibles and goodwill attributed to the acquisitions. As of 30 June, we have purchased AUD 2.6 million worth of shares as part of our ongoing share buyback. The slower-than-anticipated pace of the share buyback was largely attributable to a relatively subdued jackpot environment. Finally, the board declared a final fully franked dividend of AUD 0.20 per share, taking the total dividend for financial year 2023 to AUD 0.43 per share. This reflects a payout ratio of 85.7% of statutory NPAT, slightly above the top end of our targeted dividend payout range.

Finally, turning to our usual cash flow waterfall, where the cash generative profile of the business is clearly evident, with a free cash flow of AUD 46.2 million and greater than 100% cash conversion. The acquired amortization of AUD 2.7 million reflects 12 months for Stride and eight months for StarVale. Subject to FX translation assets, we anticipate the circa AUD 3 million charge for 2024 financial year on a full run rate basis. On the right-hand side of the chart, on a pro forma basis, I have shown the impact of the final dividend payment, which will be paid on the 22nd of this September, as well as the additional AUD 47 million of debt headroom. I'll now hand back to Mike.

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Thanks, Dave. So in conclusion, FY 2023 adds yet another important marker to our strong track record of revenue, earnings, and cash generation. It was also pleasing to declare a full-year dividend slightly above the PCP, given the weaker jackpot environment for FY 2023. A quick look now at how our portfolio price changes that we announced in May have been received. This slide shows the average revenue per player for Powerball jackpots less than or equal to AUD 20 million, which is the key indicator of underlying player health. Performance is pleasing and as expected, although it's still early days. We've seen some minor aggression on ticket sales with overall revenue per player up due to the improved revenue margin. We'll continue to monitor player behavior as the year goes on.

While we expect the pricing changes will result in a higher revenue margin, we also plan to invest some of the proceeds on enhancing our player experience and brand, particularly investing more on AI, machine learning, automation, and personalization, to maintain our premium proposition to customers. Turning now to the outlook for FY 2024. We still expect Lottery Retailing marketing costs to be in the range of 1.5%-2% of TTV, depending on jackpots. We do anticipate a higher Lottery Retailing revenue margin following the pricing changes implemented in May, subject to jackpots and portfolio mix. In FY 2024, we'll see the final step up in the TLC service fee to 4.65%.

It's important to note that in the three years since the introduction of the service fee, we've absorbed over AUD 25 million in incremental costs and have been able to deliver what we believe to be a class-leading group EBITDA margin for lotteries. As the service fee will now stay constant for the remaining years of our contract, we are focused on generating strong operating leverage. Looking at our acquisitions in aggregate, we anticipate mid to high single-digit revenue growth, with continued investment to integrate and grow this segment. At the group level, we expect to see operating leverage with revenue growth outpacing operating expenses, leading to an underlying group EBITDA margin in the range of 48%-50%. This is despite the step up in the TLC service fee. Jumbo is a capital light, highly cash-generative business with strong free cash flow generation.

We have a good pipeline of M&A opportunities, supported by a strong balance sheet and debt headroom. And finally, we'll remain disciplined around the execution of the on-market share buyback, balancing shareholder returns with our growth strategy. The opportunities stemming from artificial intelligence are truly exciting, not just for Jumbo, but companies everywhere. It's held a particular fascination for me since 1995, and I was fortunate to be part of the private beta for OpenAI's GPT-3 in 2020.... Jumbo has always been an early adopter of technology, and AI will be no different. We're already using it to improve our customer experience and retention and have more initiatives in the works. However, the responsible use of AI is paramount. There are many guardrails we've put into place to make sure we use this significant technology responsibly. So with that, I end my presentation.

I'll now hand back for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Matt Ryan with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Matt Ryan
Founding Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Barrenjoey

Oh, thank you. Hi, Mike. Hi, David. Just a question on slide 11, you've given some financial criteria around a few things like EBITDA margins and the idea that you want your target to be profitable. In the past, you've sort of given some numbers around the potential TAM of what you think offshore markets represent. Just trying to sort of marry those two things together and to try to work out what your addressable market is for M&A. And if you could just comment on, I guess, the speed at which you're acquiring business at the moment, and just any color on whether you're seeing opportunities in the market. You know, are you, I guess, a bit more cautious on doing deals at the moment?

Are there just deals that just haven't sort of fitted, nicely into this criteria? Any comments on, on those sorts of things would be great. Thanks.

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

I'll comment on the pace of our M&A and then hand over to Dave or Jatin for further comments. But look, we would have liked to move a bit faster on the M&A front, but it's worth pointing out that the first three companies that we bought were all about market entry. We now have that in the U.K. and Canada. So what we're really looking for now is a more of a synergistic type of company. So we are just making sure that there is a good fit with our existing businesses and our existing culture, and that the terms are ideal for us. But rest assured, it's a priority for Jumbo, priority for me, and we are working hard.

We have walked away from deals along the way, but we do have a strong pipeline that we're considering.

Jatin Khosla
Head of Investor Relations, Jumbo Interactive

Hi, Matt, I might just jump in on the TAM. So we have quoted these before. We look at a serviceable available market, which is really the, you know, the part of the TAM that we can actually go after with our existing product suite. We estimate that at about GBP 2 billion in the U.K. and CAD 1.9 billion in Canada, so that's Canadian dollars.

Matt Ryan
Founding Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Barrenjoey

Would that TAM fit into the criteria on slide 11, do you think?

Jatin Khosla
Head of Investor Relations, Jumbo Interactive

Yeah. So, so that, that TAM is actually made up of some larger opportunities, and then you've actually got a bunch of smaller opportunities in there. So I, I think we've set some criteria around some particular, as you mentioned, EBITDA hurdle that we'll be looking to clear. So if I break that down into what we're specifically targeted on, in the U.K., that's about half of that GBP 2 billion, is what we can go after.

Matt Ryan
Founding Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Barrenjoey

Okay.

Jatin Khosla
Head of Investor Relations, Jumbo Interactive

Keeping in mind that one of the big players in the U.K. society lottery market is the People's Postcode, which is roughly half of that.

Matt Ryan
Founding Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Barrenjoey

Got it. Yeah, that's what I was looking for. Thank you. And the buyback comments around being a little bit slower than expected because of the jackpot environment. Can you just explain a bit more about why the jackpots are impacting your ability to buy back shares?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

It just meant that earnings were lower than that, and obviously, as a result of that, expected cash flow generation was lower. So not as much-

Matt Ryan
Founding Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Barrenjoey

Got it.

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

- cash available to buy back.

Matt Ryan
Founding Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Barrenjoey

Okay, thanks. And, just a minor one. The higher marketing costs in FY 2024, I know it's only a small increase, but is that sort of just back to a normal percentage that you would expect in, I guess, a normal year of jackpots? Is that how we interpret that change from 2023 to 2024?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Correct. We always go into a new year anticipating a normal year. Of course, we never know if it's going to be above normal or below normal year, but we go into it expecting a normal year. You know, in my experience, following these jackpot cycles for many years, you do get the years where you do get low jackpots, but they invariably get followed by a return to normal or even a good year, which is what we're hoping for.

Matt Ryan
Founding Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Barrenjoey

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Rohan Gallagher from Jarden. Please go ahead.

Rohan Gallagher
Managing Director of Institutional Equities, Jarden

Good afternoon. Good morning, everybody. Can you hear me?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Yep.

Rohan Gallagher
Managing Director of Institutional Equities, Jarden

Yeah. Fantastic. Good morning, Mike. Good morning, Dave, Jason. An extension to the previous questions around M&A. Mike, can you talk about what the key learnings from the recent acquisitions, and therefore what your appetite is for M&A on a go-forward basis? And for Dave, you know, based on your balance sheet, what and your future free cash flow, what is your balance sheet capability for acquisition?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Okay. So the key learnings that we've had from the first three acquisitions, obviously, a lot of knowledge has been gained about the market that we're in, in the U.K. and Canada, and, we're getting quite sophisticated in understanding the market dynamics.... Then also the deal structure, specifically around the earn-outs. I think, we can improve on what we've done in the past, and, that's certainly part of the negotiations we have going forward. Just making sure that, you know, the founders are comfortable with, what, what's required of them, but we also get, significant access to the business prior to then, and, and we can start putting on the trajectory that we need. So we're not just handing over without, getting our feet under the table, so to speak.

So look, I'm pleased with how the teams have picked up these new markets, how we're integrating it. You know, a few years ago, we were pretty much just a single business company. Now we're a multi-business company, and with that brings the challenges, but we're getting on top of that, and I think ourselves pretty well, so I'm pleased about that.

Rohan Gallagher
Managing Director of Institutional Equities, Jarden

And, Dave, the balance sheet capacity?

David Todd
CFO, Jumbo Interactive

Yeah. So we've got the additional headroom at the moment. And you would've seen that acquisitions to date have sort of, you know, they haven't been significant in terms of size. And we're not talking about an AUD 100 million acquisition or anything along those lines. So we feel that we've got sufficient capacity for the next one that comes up in the short term. And if we get, you know, another opportunity thereafter, we still believe that we've got sufficient strength in the balance sheet to take on additional debt if we need to.

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

The fact that we know that we're able to repay StarVale was a good outcome for us.

Rohan Gallagher
Managing Director of Institutional Equities, Jarden

Fantastic. Thanks. And just a follow-up question, guys, if I may. In your outlook, you're talking about margin guidance of around 48%-50% below what was realized in 2023. Acknowledging the TLC higher service fee, I think people would've thought that you'd have more operating leverage through pricing, the price increases being implemented. Can you sort of unpack that to sort of, you know, what, what are the other swings around about that we should be taking into consideration, please?

Jatin Khosla
Head of Investor Relations, Jumbo Interactive

Hi, Ryan, it's Jatin, and I might just jump in on that one. So that underlying EBITDA margin of 48%-50% is excluding incentives as well. You'll see on the slide. So the pricing is effectively helping us to absorb the step up in the TLC service fee, so from three point five percent to four point six five percent. And then the different movements in that equation, I guess, are just OpEx. And you heard us today talk about OpEx being less than the revenue line. So you're right, we're taking some benefit on pricing. We shared a slide on how Powerball goes on. It's still early days. We've seen some minor regression, but we'll need to give it three to six months to play out fully.

Effectively, pricing will set TLC service fee, and then it all comes down to getting operating leverage in the business, and OpEx running less than revenue expenses.

Rohan Gallagher
Managing Director of Institutional Equities, Jarden

Thanks. Thanks, Jatin.

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

It does set up the business, quite well for a return to operating leverage in FY 2025 and beyond.

Rohan Gallagher
Managing Director of Institutional Equities, Jarden

Okay. Thank you, gentlemen. It'd be remiss of me not to, Dave, wish you all the very best for your future endeavors. Thank you.

David Todd
CFO, Jumbo Interactive

Thanks for that, Ryan.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Rohan Sundram, from MST Financial. Please go ahead.

Rohan Sundram
Partner and Senior Analyst, MST Financial

Hi. Thanks, team. Just a couple from me. Firstly, on the... Mike, on the environment, and how would you describe player behavior now versus, say, six months ago? If it is looking to be a more normal environment, how would you say the player behavior is showing more normal patterns? How would you describe it?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Look, that's always the question at the top of our mind during a low jackpot environment. But, you know, it's pleasing to see that the player behavior and player health is still very, very strong and as expected. We often do our like-for-like comparisons, and that always points to strong player behavior. The underlying player metrics continue to be strong. You know, the response to the large draw was the key in my mind. When the AUD 60 millions and the AUD 100 millions, and even a AUD 160 start rolling around, the response is always really strong. The AUD 160 was our best ever. Even the AUD 60 million we had in June was our best ever AUD 60 million.

That then went on to AUD 100 million in June, which gave us the, the big finish, and that was an excellent result. Even the recent one in August, the AUD 100 million that we had there, again, was another excellent response. As long as players are responding well, you know, despite the, you know, economic climate, despite the pricing, they still turn out in force to buy those tickets at those high levels, which, which is, ultimately the test that we have to pass.

Rohan Sundram
Partner and Senior Analyst, MST Financial

Thanks, Mike. And next one is just around the underlying like-for-like growth across Gatherwell, Stride, and StarVale. I see Gatherwell revenue was down about 11%. And was it correct that I heard you say Stride and StarVale combined was up slightly?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Yes, that's right.

Rohan Sundram
Partner and Senior Analyst, MST Financial

Excuse that.

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Yes, Stride and StarVale were up slightly. Gatherwell was down, which we detected early on in the year. We made some changes. We've got some positive momentum going in Gatherwell now. We've put in two new BDMs, where we've opened up a new area for sporting clubs to add to our local authorities and our schools. And so, you know, we're expecting a much better FY 2024 out of Gatherwell.

Rohan Sundram
Partner and Senior Analyst, MST Financial

Okay, and is that the key driver, or is there improvement expected in the growth outlook for Stride and StarVale driving that guidance that you've given as well?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Yeah. Yeah, look, we are expecting mid- to high-single-digit top-line growth for Stride and StarVale. Look, a lot of the focus will be on making sure that the handover happens seamlessly. Both those are on track to meet their earn-out. We've just got to make sure that they're that the handover happens smoothly. But we've got some positive momentum there. In Canada, in Stride, we've expanded our agreement with the Alberta Cancer Foundation. We've re-signed our contract in British Columbia, one of our new provinces there, and we even have a new province in New Brunswick with a small deal to kick things off there. So there's enough positive momentum going forward there. And same with StarVale in the U.K.

We've expanded agreement with the Alzheimer's charity that we work with, and everything's on track there.

Rohan Sundram
Partner and Senior Analyst, MST Financial

Thanks, Mike and Dave.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from David Fabris, from Macquarie. Please go ahead.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Hi, Mike. Hi, Dave.

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Hi, David.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Hey, just with digital penetration in lotteries, it's been stuck for, call it 18 months now. Is that enough to call it a trend, or how does it return to growth from here? Have you got any views? And, yeah, how do we frame that up?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Look, I'm certainly expecting it to get back to the 3 percentage points that we've been used to. Certainly, COVID's had an impact, followed by, you know, the weak jackpot run. But I look towards what's happened in the U.K, where they've had a 1 percentage point growth over one year due to COVID. After a big couple of years, of course, and then they returned to 3 percentage point growth, taking them from 40% to 45%. So just looking at the U.K. and just sort of general experience with the industry, I see it more as a blip and a return to 3% going forward.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Okay, that's helpful. And, just while we're thinking about that, that lottery business, can you sort of let us know your exposure to Monday and Wednesday Lotto? I guess we've got game changers probably coming in FY 2025 and maybe the launch of Friday Lotto. I'm just trying to work out how exposed you might be to some improved volumes on the back of those moving parts.

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Yeah, the Monday-Wednesday game is less than 5% of our portfolio, so it's not, it's not huge for us. You know, as a digital-only channel, we're more exposed to the big jackpotting games of Powerball and Oz Lotto. But, you know, we're happy to welcome any new game and, you know, I'm sure we'll have some benefit out of it.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Got it. And just one last question: I guess I'm just curious on your views on the regulatory environment. I guess, in particular, how to deal with disruptors like The Lottery Office. And are you seeing any impact on your business recently?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Not overall. The impact has been negligible. You know, it's had a bit of an impact on the marketing cost side of things. And you know, they've been quite active during the low jackpots and not active during the high jackpots. Look, our position is that we'll stand by TLC and provide support for them and even the newsagent lobbying that they'll do, we'll provide help with that. But overall, we haven't seen any impact, but we have discussed it with TLC, and I'm confident that they'll be able to manage it very well.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Yeah. Got it. Sorry, I do have one last question. Just any update on Lotterywest and the opportunity to, to take on more earnings from that region?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Yeah. So Lotterywest, yeah, we're still patiently waiting for their RFP. But, you know, to be able to deliver an 8% growth in the TTV, you know, during a period where everybody struggles to get any growth, in the rest of the country, it certainly points to the potential that exists in, in Western Australia. So relationship is still excellent. You know, we're just waiting for the wheels to turn, and we can get to the RFP, like I said, expected towards the end of this year or early next.

David Fabris
Equity Research Analyst, Macquarie

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from James Bales, from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

James Bales
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, guys. A couple of questions on guidance. Firstly, the Managed Services guidance of mid- to high-single-digit. Just to clarify, is that an organic growth rate, or does that include the annualization of StarVale?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

That's an organic growth rate, James.

James Bales
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Is there any reason not to interpret the 22.8% as your best estimate on take rate for FY 2024?

Mike Veverka
Founder, CEO, and Executive Director, Jumbo Interactive

Yeah. Look, I think that's a fair assumption, but like we said, subject to jackpot and portfolio mix. But when you apply the new pricing to the jackpot in 2023 and you use that mix, that's what you end up with.

James Bales
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. So that number is based on the FY 2023 mix with a lower-than-trend Powerball sequence?

Jatin Khosla
Head of Investor Relations, Jumbo Interactive

Yeah, slightly lower than 2022, correct.

James Bales
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Okay. Given the uplift in take rate relative to the service fee, I'd just like to go back to that earlier question on how we should understand the expected OpEx uplift in order to restrict the EBITDA margins to 48%-50%. Can you help us understand what are the cost buckets that are gonna grow to sort of inhibit that, margin expansion beyond 50%?

Jatin Khosla
Head of Investor Relations, Jumbo Interactive

Yeah. I'll have to jump in.

David Todd
CFO, Jumbo Interactive

Yeah, that's fine.

Jatin Khosla
Head of Investor Relations, Jumbo Interactive

So, James, yeah, that 48%-50%, as I said to Rohan earlier, was excluding incentives. And you can see why we did that, because we've benefited, as Dave said, you know, roughly AUD 1 million in incentives in FY 2023. I guess what's driving that is, look, there will be a little bit of headcount growth. You know, we're expecting a few roles in the plan, but really, we've given our teams a zero-sum budget. If you wanna put someone on, you know, you need to find that within the existing budget. Marketing is obviously the other factor, and so a lot of retailing marketing costs will be back in that 1.5%-2% range, given a normalization in jackpots.

I guess we have had some increase on the employee side, just on the KMP, and you'll see that in our REM disclosures that we've released today, that there's an increase over there as well. And the rest of the spend really comes in tech costs. You know, our SaaS team and Chief Operating Officer have some sites and some new software that will be flowing through, and then the rest is just corporate costs. We are seeing an increase in insurance for the group as we get bigger and also audit fees. Hopefully, that gives you enough color.

James Bales
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah, that's great. Then, in terms of CapEx for next year, can you give us a steer on what we should be expecting there?

David Todd
CFO, Jumbo Interactive

James, it'll be pretty much in line with what we've seen over the last, you know, two to three years, which is around that AUD 6 million-AUD 6.5 million.

James Bales
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, perfect. Thanks, guys. I appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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