Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Lendlease's FY 2024 results briefing. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation, followed by a question-and-answer session with management and Lendlease's covering research analysts. At which time, if you wish to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. I must advise you that this call is being recorded today, Monday, 19th of August, 2024 . I would now like to hand the call over to Mr. Tony Lombardo, Group Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining the Lendlease 2024 results presentation. I'm Tony Lombardo, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Lendlease. With me, Simon Dixon, Chief Financial Officer. Sitting here at Barangaroo in Sydney, we're on the land of the Gadigal people, and I extend my respect to their elders, past and present. Today, I'll provide an overview of our FY 2024 results. Simon will then talk through the financials before handing back to me for strategy and outlook. We'll then open for questions. Starting with our strategic direction on slide three. In May this year, we announced a refreshed strategy to position Lendlease for financial success, a strategy that leverages our proven core strengths and competitive advantages.
We've already made great strides as we removed our regional structure to reduce our costs, divest international construction, accelerate capital release from international development, and introduce a new capital allocation framework that prioritizes reducing debt, returning capital to security holders, and investing for growth in our market-leading Australian business and international investments platform. Turning now to performance and operations. Starting with our strategic progress and operational performance on slide five. Since announcing our refresh strategy in May, we've moved quickly to implement a series of major changes to the business with strategic execution progressing. Central to strategy is the establishment of a capital release unit, or CRU, that will liberate more than AUD 4.5 billion of capital from the business, substantially reducing debt and strengthening the group's balance sheet. This should also provide the flexibility to return capital to our security holders and reinvest for growth.
We've made strong progress towards our FY 2025 divestment target of AUD 2.8 billion, with AUD 1.9 billion of transactions already announced. They include the sale of 12 communities projects in Australia, which is subject to an anticipated ACCC decision in September, the sale of our U.S. military housing business, and the completed sale of our Asian Life Sciences interests into a new joint venture with Warburg Pincus, and we are targeting more than AUD 900 million of further capital recycling in FY 2025 from sale processes that are already underway. These include our 25% investment in Australia's Keyton Retirement Living, Ardor Gardens in China, and our interest in the newly completed Exchange TRX retail asset in Kuala Lumpur. We've removed our regional management structure, helping to further simplify the group and increase our focus on segment performance.
We've announced a further AUD 125 million of pre-tax run rate cost savings, and we anticipate achieving this run rate by the end of FY 2025. Our divestment of international construction has also progressed, with terms agreed in principle for the sale of our U.S. East Coast operations to Consigli, and preparations underway for the sale of our U.K. construction business. Operationally, it's been a productive year, with AUD 3.4 billion of underlying growth in funds under management, more than AUD 8 billion of development completions, and closing the year with AUD 10.6 billion in preferred projects across the Australian construction workbook. Transactions announced to date, together with further contracted settlements at One Sydney Harbour, are anticipated to deliver cash receipts in the order of AUD 2.4 billion in FY 2025, supporting the strengthening of the group's balance sheet.
We've achieved our target of removing more than AUD 60 million of overheads from the business in FY 2024. In line with our steadfast commitment to safety and through our relentless focus on this critical area, no fatal incidents were recorded across the portfolio during the financial year. We remain on track to reach our targets of net zero carbon by FY 2025 for Scope one and two emissions, and creating AUD 250 million of social value by FY 2025. Moving down to the FY 2024 financial result on slide six. Core operating profit after tax for the year was AUD 263 million. While supported by development completions in the second half, the result was impacted by transaction timing, with delays in the completion of the Australian community sale and the Asia Pacific Life Sciences joint venture.
Core operating earnings per security were AUD 0.381, equating to a return on equity of 4.4%. Distributions per security totaled AUD 0.16, unchanged from the prior year, representing a payout ratio of 42%. The group recorded a statutory loss after tax for the year of AUD 1.5 billion, which included AUD 1.38 billion of impairments and charges required to implement the refresh strategy. This equated to pre-tax charge of AUD 1.46 billion, which was within the previously estimated range. Additionally, there was a AUD 260 million post-tax revaluation loss on property investments within the investment segment and AUD 95 million in restructuring costs from business optimization initiatives announced in July 2023. Gearing of 21% includes a 1% impact due to strategy-related impairments and charges.
There is a clear pathway to deleverage the balance sheet from the announced transactions and contracted settlements. Simon will talk to this later in the presentation. Listed on slide seven are a selection of key operational highlights. In investments, a new Asia Pacific Life Sciences joint venture was established, and the sale of our military housing business was announced. In development, there were several completions this year that created develop-to-core investment product, including Melbourne Quarter Tower, The Reed in Chicago, the Exchange TRX, and phase one of our data center in Tokyo. This activity was supported by residential-for-sale completions, including Residences One, One Sydney Harbour, Claremont Hall in New York, and Park & Sayer in London. In construction, two integrated metro stations at Martin Place and Victoria Cross were completed, making a significant milestone in Australia's largest public transport project.
Our investment segment earnings, highlighted on slide eight, are derived from funds and assets under management, and contributions from our directly held co-investment portfolio. Despite challenging market conditions, we grew core funds by AUD 3.4 billion from develop to core products. This was more than offset by negative market revaluation. Funds under management reduced slightly to AUD 47.3 billion. Assets under management increased 3%, driven by the completion of the Exchange TRX. The group's investments portfolio was down 8% to AUD 3.6 billion. Deployment of capital in the first half into APPF Retail was more than offset by revaluation impacts and asset divestments, including the sale of Darling Square. The portfolio remains well diversified, with a primary weighting to workplace, residential, and retail assets. The portfolio's performance improved during the year, generating a distribution yield of 3.3%, up from 3%.
Stabilized assets in the portfolio generated a distribution yield of 3.5%. Future growth will be underpinned by the investment products we create from projects currently in delivery at our development pipeline. In addition, we'll look to leverage our capability to source and deliver new investment products alongside our investment partners. International projects underway with our capital partners are expected to add more than AUD 6 billion in FUM over the coming years. Turning to development on slide nine. Development activity increased with AUD 8.2 billion of completions, with key completions already mentioned and AUD 1.9 billion of commencements, including a residential build-to-sell project at Elephant Park in London, with partner Daiwa House, and luxury apartments at Victoria Harbour in Melbourne. We've secured a new project in Melbourne at the Queen Victoria Market precinct.
This major urban project has an end development value of AUD 1.3 billion and is set to include both sustainable workplace and build-to-rent apartments. In addition, Scape will develop and manage a AUD 400 million student accommodation tower within the precinct. Post-balance sheet, we also secured a AUD 500 million luxury apartment development, One Darling Point in partnership with Mitsubishi Estate Asia. Our luxury residential developments continue to perform strongly, with 89% pre-sold by value across the remaining One Sydney Harbour assets, and 70% pre-sold at One Circular Quay, due to complete in FY 2027. Leasing progress was achieved across the portfolio, included at our recently completed retail asset, The Exchange TRX, in Kuala Lumpur, which is now 98% leased. Several tenants were secured across Town Hall Place and Melbourne Quarter Tower in Melbourne.
In North Sydney, Victoria Cross secured its first tenant, and there is increasing tenant interest with the opening of the metro station today, and ahead of practical completion targeted for the second half of FY25. In communities, FY24 settlements of 2,237 were down marginally from 2,253, while sales of 1,721 were down on the prior year sales of 1,765. Turning to the outlook, our Australia development pipeline has an estimated end value of approximately AUD 12 billion. We're in advanced stages of securing up to AUD 13 billion of opportunities across five projects, where we have either one or two or an exclusive, in exclusive discussions. In addition, we are assessing a further AUD 27 billion of early-stage opportunities, which are concentrated on the east coast of Australia.
Moving now to the construction segment on Slide 10. Operational changes were made during the year as we seek to improve the risk-return profile of the business and divest international construction operations. This included the announced wind down of the U.S. West Coast and central operations, and terms agreed in principle for the sale of the East Coast operations. Progress was made in Asia with the sale of the majority of our Asian construction business into a new life sciences joint venture with Warburg Pincus. In the U.K., preparations are also underway for the business sale. New work secured was marginally up on the prior year, led by an increase in European activity. The segment has a backlog revenue of AUD 7.6 billion.
Australia's backlog revenue of AUD 3.9 billion is weighted to government projects and is supported by strong preferred workbank of AUD 10.6 billion, providing confidence in future revenues. We anticipate construction revenues to run at AUD 3.5 billion-AUD 4 billion a year into the future. I'll now hand over to Simon to talk through the financials.
Thanks, Tony, and good morning, everyone. Starting with our financial performance on Slide 12. Core segment EBITDA of AUD 809 million was up 15%, with a lower contribution from investments EBITDA more than offset by higher contributions from development and construction. Investment segment delivered EBITDA of AUD 174 million, down 48% on the prior year, which benefited from a further sell down of the military housing asset management income stream that delivered AUD 192 million of earnings. Development EBITDA was up 80%, with key contributions, including the completion of our first residential tower at One Sydney Harbour, delivering AUD 183 million of EBITDA, a payment received in relation to the San Francisco Bay Area project, and completion of TRX retail and residential projects in Kuala Lumpur.
These were partly offset by a AUD 57 million negative revaluation at Victoria Cross in North Sydney, primarily due to cap rate expansion. Construction segment EBITDA of AUD 126 million was up 40%. Underlying financial performance, particularly on Australian projects, was impacted by supplier insolvencies that led to retendering for various goods and services. The estimate of the impact in FY 2024 of those insolvencies was in the order of AUD 50 million. The result also includes a AUD 42 million dollar gain from the remeasurement of U.K. pension scheme liabilities. Corporate costs reduced 13% to AUD 140 million dollars, primarily from cost initiatives relating to headcount reduction. Core operating EBITDA of AUD 669 million dollars increased 23%. Net finance costs increased from AUD 88 million dollars in FY 2023 to AUD 238 million dollars in FY 2024.
This movement included impacts from the buyback of sterling bonds in each year. The increase overall was primarily due to a higher average debt balance, reflecting peak development CapEx and carrying costs from delayed transactions and a higher average cost of debt. This was partially offset by a further buyback of the group's sterling bonds. Tax expense was lower at AUD 48 million, primarily due to a higher proportion of profits being derived from the trust. Core operating profit after tax of AUD 263 million was largely in line with FY 2023 profit of AUD 257 million. Moving to the segment performance in more detail on slide 13, starting with the investment segment. While headline operating performance was lower with investments EBITDA of AUD 174 million, both management EBITDA and earnings from co-investments increased in the year.
Management EBITDA from funds and asset management activities increased 9% due to lower operating expenses. Co-investment EBITDA of AUD 124 million was up 5%, driven by improved yields in workplace and retirement living assets, as well as deployment of capital into the higher yielding APPF retail fund. The decrease in other EBITDA primarily reflected an absence of transactional profits versus the prior year, and a final provision taken in FY 2024 against the receivable from the disposal of the U.S. telecommunications business. Moving on to slide 14. In the development segment, stronger second half activity of more than AUD 5 billion of completions resulted in more than AUD 8 billion of completions for the year. EBITDA of AUD 509 million was up 80%.
This was underpinned by Residences One at Barangaroo, which delivered AUD 183 million of EBITDA within urban development. The communities business contributed EBITDA of AUD 48 million, with the prior year benefiting from the higher margin settlements and the sale of industrial land parcels. The delayed completion of the community sale resulted in EBITDA of AUD 40 million or OPAT of AUD 28 million being recognized in FY 2024, which would otherwise have been part of the sale. In the construction segment, revenue was down due to lower activity across all markets, particularly offshore. EBITDA margin of 2.1% compared to 1.2% in the prior year, which reflects a higher proportion of revenue from Australia.
The EBITDA margin for the Australian construction business of 1.7% was impacted by supplier insolvencies, as mentioned earlier, that led to cost increases and project delays. Turning now to net debt on Slide 15. The increase in net debt to AUD 3.2 billion includes AUD 1 billion of gross capital deployed across development and investments, reflecting peak development capital. Non-core cash outflows for the year were AUD 0.2 billion. Net cash proceeds in the order of approximately AUD 2.4 billion are anticipated to be received in FY 2025, equating to a pro forma FY 2024 gearing benefit of approximately 15% and providing a clear path to deleverage the balance sheet. This includes AUD 0.8 billion from apartment settlements at One Sydney Harbour and AUD 1.6 billion from announced and completed transactions.
Moving to capital management and treasury on slide 16. While gearing of 21% is modestly above the group's FY 2024 target range, the capital recycling program is well underway. The group maintains strong liquidity of AUD 2.2 billion, comprising AUD 1.2 billion of available undrawn debt and AUD 1 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Debt maturity is well balanced, with an average maturity of 3.4 years and no material maturities falling due in FY 2025. Maintaining our investment-grade credit ratings remains a priority, and these were reaffirmed by both ratings agencies during the year. Slide 17 highlights our progress on cost initiatives. Over the past two years, the group has removed approximately 170 million from net overheads.
In FY 2024, we achieved our target of removing AUD 60 million of pre-tax cost savings from net overheads, removing AUD 64 million of costs for the year. We are targeting further overhead savings of AUD 125 million on a run rate basis to be achieved by the end of FY 2025. Turning to slide 18. As communicated at our May strategy update, material asset impairments and charges were required to execute the decisions arising from the revised strategy. Pre-tax impairments and charges of AUD 1.46 billion have been taken at FY 2024, within the estimated range provided at our May strategy update. The first component comprises AUD 513 million of non-cash goodwill charges, which primarily relate to the 1999 acquisition of Bovis Construction.
AUD 217 million of deferred tax assets and AUD 91 million of other costs were also taken. Other costs were AUD 547 million, which relates to specific international development projects, and AUD 91 million of redundancy, tenancy, and other charges. I'll now hand back to Tony.
Thanks, Simon. Moving now to slide 20. As we have talked about, many decisive actions have been taken to simplify the business. To recap from our May strategy update, we have restructured the organization through the removal of regional management, commenced further reduction of costs and headcount, targeting 125 million of pre-tax run rate cost savings by the end of FY 2025, announced transactions for more than half of the 2.8 billion of capital targeted for FY 2025, agreed heads of terms for the sale of our U.S. East Coast construction operation, and commenced preparations for the sale of our U.K. construction business. Finally, we've established an Asia Pacific Life Sciences joint venture. Moving now to slide 22, the FY 2025 financial outlook. We are focused on growing and improving the performance of the investment, development, and construction segments.
The primary focus of the Capital Release Unit is to accelerate the release of capital. Our group earnings per security for FY 2025 are anticipated to be AUD 0.54-AUD 0.62. This range includes AUD 0.48 that is secured or highly probable, which comprises AUD 0.36 from IDC and AUD 0.12 from the Capital Release Unit. Finally, moving to slide 26. In summary, we're taking significant strategic action at an accelerated pace to leverage our key competitive strengths and simplify our business. I'm excited by the progress we've made since May, and we'll continue to work hard to achieve our goals for FY 2025 in the interest of all of our stakeholders, our security holders, our customers, and our people. Thank you. We'll now open up for analyst questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask a question. The line is now open to analysts. Your first question comes from James Druce with CLSA. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good morning. I just wanted to get a feel for the asset sales this year. I think you were sort of talking to TRX, maybe Australian Retirement and China as well. How are they progressing?
Thanks, James, for the question. So yeah, there are processes underway for each of those three divestments. We anticipate working on those throughout this next 12 months, but we've got TRX sale process well on the way. So we expect that to hopefully materialize in the divestment of that. It's a very strong asset, and it's been performing well from its leasing and also just in performance from its day-to-day operations with strong visitation. In terms of the other two processes, both the retirement sales for both China and the Australian operations, we're working through ongoing processes there. We'll be anticipating to achieve some AUD 900 million + of proceeds across those three sales.
Okay, and does TRX have the office component in there as well, or is it just the retail?
Yeah, no, we're anticipating in terms of what we've gone to market is to have the office in that sale process as well.
Okay, that's clear, and can you just talk to maybe the range of guidance, AUD 0.54-AUD 0.62? What's driving the top end, the bottom end, how we should think about that?
Yeah, I think this year we've tried to standardize our approach to how we're giving guidance. So we've listened to the feedback, firstly, from our security holders. We've also been looking at making sure we match the market on how we give that guidance. I mean, the key two things from my perspective is really trying to demonstrate clear earnings that will come from the investments, development, and construction segments, and also making sure that the CRU has been set up to extract value and accelerate that release of capital. I think the way we've approached it this year is, as you can see, there's AUD 0.48 that we've called out. That is either secured or highly probable.
You know, things that are secured are things like the base fees in the investments business, the construction secured work bank, development management fees is what we're calling out. Also things like the settlements from One Sydney Harbour. When it comes to highly probable, we're looking at that we've got a number of transactions which are progressing quite well, and we're feeling very confident in where we sit. To hit that top line that you raised to get to the AUD 0.62, the business is working through a number of other transactions, as we always do. They're in those early stages, and we need to secure those, and that would derive, you know, from the AUD 0.48 that we're talking about. That's another AUD 0.14 on top of where we're getting to.
What we have also done is make sure we've allocated the appropriate funding costs of debt across both of the IDC and the CRU, and also the appropriate corporate costs that sit against each of those segments, to come up with that 36% and 12% ranges.
Okay. Any assumptions for Victoria Cross in that guidance?
In Victoria Cross, we're not assuming any profits this year from Victoria Cross. As you can see, and Simon stipulated for the year, there was a AUD 57 million revaluation downwards in FY 2024, and again, that was because of the expansion to the cap rates. But we're quite positive on Victoria Cross. We're seeing today it's a big milestone with the metro opening. We've got significant amount of interest. We're talking and under negotiation with some 45% of potential tenants across the net lettable area on that asset. So I think it's in high demand, and we'll be hoping to announce various leasing transactions through the year.
Okay, so just to be clear, so there's no, no further write down in Victoria Cross assumed?
There's no further write down.
No further write down, nor profit assumed either. So it really, that will be where it sits today is a function of the current view on cap rates and leasing. So any change to that will be a result of changes around cap rates and the actual leasing experience leading up to practical completion.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Suraj Nebhani in Citi. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you. Just a couple of quick ones. So firstly, on the development pipeline, I noticed that the numbers, the AUD 40 billion and the AUD 13 billion remain same as the strategy presentation. I'm just wondering, are these June 2024 numbers or... And has there been any movement in those numbers since then? Obviously, we've seen some of the project wins go against you recently. So I'm just trying to think, to just rationalize that, those pipeline numbers.
Yeah, I think it is the same. We've left the presentation, and as you have called out, firstly, today, I want to announce that we've secured One Darling Point with our key partner, Mitsubishi, which is an AUD 500 million project that we've secured, and we'll be aiming to get that underway and delivering profits for the organization in FY 2028. There have been a couple of projects that we were unsuccessful on, such as Waterloo. The focus of the team is to replenish, but to replenish with real discipline, to deliver our security holder returns. And we're looking for things that are more near-term, that will deliver profits in 2028, 2029. Unfortunately, that Waterloo project, we had it anticipating delivering returns in FY 2031. So, you know, our focus is really about building a sustainable pipeline for many years to come.
As you can see, we're highlighting a significant set of opportunities and 13 billion, which are more near term, that we're either in exclusive position or, or one of two, that our team is very focused on securing.
Understood. Thanks for that, Tony. Maybe one for Simon. I know there's a fair bit of work that the team and you guys have done on the cost side. Can you talk to the outlook for overheads across the business, and what are you anticipating, or sort of savings, rather, are you anticipating into FY 2025?
Yes, certainly. Thank you. We've got a separate slide that we've pulled out on overheads and focusing specifically on overheads, rather than costs across the whole business, which is on slide 17, I'm just reminded. That ties back to specific disclosure that we've now included in our statutory accounts, in note number seven, for those inclined to kind of dig into the statutory accounts, you'll see all of the detail there. You recall we announced, in May, that we're targeting a further AUD 125 million in cost savings, on overheads, and that's on a sort of full run rate basis. Specifically, that was the focus of that AUD 125 million was on overheads.
I think for FY 2025, it would be reasonable to assume that we'll realize sort of half of those savings in FY 2025, with the full run rate benefit of AUD 125 million coming through in FY 2026.
Got it. And, and that 125 is, there, there's obviously some expenses from that 125 included in the recoveries line as well. So, so not all of it comes through the, Okay, the net overhead-
No, that's the. I'm just giving it to you to keep it very transparent and very simple, just giving you the net number. So that's the amount that will hit the P&L.
Okay, understood. So just to clarify, you're sitting at 537 in FY 2024, so you think we should see around AUD 125 million of reduction over the next two years, based on what you're projecting currently?
That's right. We would expect that to track down towards 400, and obviously we're continuing to work to find opportunities to continue to streamline and make the business more efficient where possible. But at this stage, you can expect that to track down towards 400 through FY or by the end of FY 2026.
Okay, thank you. And just one final one is around the, again, sticking to the financials, Simon, is it seems like the approach to guidance is changing into FY 2025, where you're only, I guess, excluding revaluations from the core profit. So can you talk to any, I guess, any one-off type assumptions that you're making in your 54-62 cent guidance, or, you know, any sort of stuff which is typically below the line but will now come above the line?
Yeah, no, thank you, and that's a good question. That's a good point of, a good reminder really, in relation to how, we define our operating profit, core operating profit going forward. So, historically, we've been stripping out, you know, items which, effectively couldn't be anticipated in the ordinary course of business. Those one-off items, that would include things like restructuring charges. Going forward, we're making it a lot simpler for the market. So the only adjustment, from statutory profit, will be investment property revaluations on, through the investment segment. So that's the only change. Now, clearly, if you look at the results the last three or four years, there have been a number of one-off items that have gone effectively below the line. A lot of these have related to restructuring initiatives.
Obviously, we've announced in May a substantial reorganizational restructuring of the organization. We have been providing and booking provisions for that in FY 2024, so they are in the numbers, so going forward, you know, we're not currently anticipating any large one-off items which would historically have been recorded below the line under the old definition.
Got it. And, sorry, just one final one before I jump off. Any further gains likely on the buyback of sterling bonds into FY 2025, or at least if you're baking that into guidance?
No. No, there's not, and nor does that appear in guidance either. So, I mean, I think Tony's very clearly explained sort of guidance and the threshold we've used, the secure and highly probable. But certainly, you know, unless something is secured or highly probable, which is then it's not in plan, and it's not in guidance.
Okay. Thank you. Thanks for that.
The next question comes from Ben Brayshaw with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Tony, Simon. Just wondering if you could maybe just clarify. If I look at guidance, the AUD 0.48, and the contribution from IDC based on the net assets, at thirtieth of June, it looks like the ROE for IDC is tracking at about 12%. Would that be correct?
I would say that if you look at the way we've split guidance, I mean, it showed exactly how we've split capital, but you can go back and look at exactly our capital balance, which I think is at AUD 3.8 billion for investments, and you've got AUD 5.9 billion that's sitting across the development side. A couple of things I would state is that when you look at the current, where we sit at 36% in terms of what we said is highly secured and highly probable. I mean, sorry, secured and highly probable, I think that is seeing us get close to our double digit.
I think there are a number of transactions that we have on foot that we would like to see ourselves, you know, perform more closely to some of our historical returns when it comes to our cost to capital. So we do think 2025 we're anticipating to be in that sort of double-digit territory for our overall return on equity there.
Yeah, that's right. I think I mean, Ben, you're not too far off. We've got, you'll be able to see, our view on what the capital balances are within sort of IDC and CRU on a go-forward basis in the appendices to the presentation, where we've included the pro forma financials on that basis, similar to what we did during the May strategy day. And the AUD 0.36, you know, that is trending towards effectively a double-digit sort of return on equity, and that is very much in line with the historical performance of that business, which we called out in May. So again, it's effectively doing what it said it would do.
Yep. No, terrific. Thank you, and just finally, you called out some construction challenges in Australia with subcontractor insolvencies. I was wondering if you could provide any comment on Melbourne Metro and the visibility you have on that project going forward?
... Yeah, look, Melbourne Metro is progressing. It's on track to open in 2025, which is the targeted timeframe. We've still maintained all of our provisions, and the project is over 80% complete now. So it's tracking to plan in terms of what we anticipated over the last sort of 12 months.
Just finally, sorry, have you completed the buyback of the U.K. sterling bonds? Should we assume that, essentially you're through that process?
Yeah. Yeah, Ben, there's no more that we're assuming of buying back any U.K. sterling.
Great. Yeah, terrific. Thanks for your time, guys.
No problem.
The next question comes from Tom Boulton with UBS. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Tony and Simon. Just a question on the stabilized yield at 3.3%. I was just wondering if that could get to, say, 4%-5% over the next couple of years. It's sort of been around that low 3s% recently.
Yeah, so the distribution yield has been running at that lower level. We have been looking to drive it up. There are assets that have just completed and not stabilized, so we'd be expecting over time, some of those assets, and then we are aiming to really drive the performance there. One of the bigger factors over the last probably 12 months has been the cost of debt. When you look at long-term bond rates, probably over the last—since the strategy, I think they've dropped by about 80 basis points since May. So I think there'll be a couple of key things around just overall, where we see rates going, could be a contributing impact to better performance.
And then what I would say is, underlying, we've had some better improvement through upwards, reversions, and the team are very much targeting to continue to drive that. And leasing across the whole portfolio has maintained a 95% level, which has been strong.
Yeah. No, that's what I'm just a reminder, I mean, that Tom is, that's post-interest and fees, that number. So to Tony's sort of point, you know, to the extent that one has a view on where rates are, there could be benefit, obviously, if rates start coming off, in relation to that distribution yield.
That's clear. So even, say, the stabilized piece, though, which doesn't include the dilution from new FUM, could that get to, say, 4% in the next two years? Or do you think it will take a bit longer to get back there?
I think there's... Again, I think the biggest factor we're calling out are probably rates. And to me, if I've seen some of the performance of the underlying uplift, I think directionally we'll be aiming to close the gap to get closer to that floor.
Okay, thanks. And then, I'd just be interested to understand settlements at One Sydney Harbour. Have they all been progressing to forecast, and or has it taken a bit longer with some of them? And subsequent to that also, that R3 tower, I noticed the yield on that. Sorry, the margin on that is only 0%-10%. Can you just elaborate a bit on that?
Yeah. So I would say firstly, settlements are tracking to plan, so they've all been settling as targeted, over this last six months, which has been very positive on the Residences One tower. We have been calling out that the Waterman tower, which includes a significant proportion of key worker housing and the like, it always had a lower margin attached to that product.
Okay, but 0%-10% is very low. I mean, is that, you know, is there particular issues in that project? And it's also only 70% pre-sold.
Yeah, it's to me, there's no issues. It's been moving along. Sales have moved through the period, and overall, as we called out, the two towers are over 89% secured, so we'll anticipate that margin that we've called out in between that 0% to 10%.
Okay, great. Thanks. And then just a final one from me. Just be interested in understanding what drove that shift lower.
Sure, Tom. It's, I think that the easiest way to think about that is just in terms of when we're putting out the estimates in May, is obviously based on an estimated balance sheet and taking the mid-range of the impairment, the likely impairment charges and provisioning that we're looking to take. We obviously ended up at the top end of the range, not the midpoint of the range. So that really explains the difference in the NTA.
Okay, excellent. Thanks for that.
The next question comes from Richard Jones with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Tony and Simon. Just wondering if you could discuss how you think about the debt repayment from proceeds, obviously, on the sales that are taking place, I guess, net of deployment into new development opportunities, as to when you might commence a buyback.
Simon, did you want to?
Yeah
Walk through our sources and uses?
Yeah, sure. Thanks. Thank you. It's back in May when we talked about if we look forward the next 12 months, obviously the focus is on getting back the AUD 2.8 billion that we've identified in that first phase, in terms of capital recycling those on-market assets. With that AUD 2.8 billion, we've effectively already allocated that. We talked about AUD 1 billion being allocated to paying down debt. We talked about some AUD 700 million to fund our joint venture CRU projects, some AUD 600 million to fund on sort of the non-core side with BSA, the building safety in the U.K. and engineering and services in Australia. We have to fund redundancies, et cetera, which have come out of the strategy change.
So the fallout from that was about AUD 500 million net for a securities buyback. And really, I guess, the key point to make is, you know, nothing has particularly changed since May in relation to that. We're obviously a few months further progressed. We're continuing to work very hard on recycling that capital. But just as a reminder, we did have, I guess, a number of conditions around the securities repurchase. And I do believe we included the slide again in the appendix, which will just go to management's intention. You know, it hasn't changed, but it does remain dependent on a number of conditions. You know, firstly, we called out the completion of the communities transaction.
Secondly, and I think it's important to note, that gearing reaches our target 5%-15% by the end of FY 2026, irrespective of security repurchases. So we need a very clear line of sight that our gearing is gonna be back to within that revised 5%-15% range by the end of FY 2026. Thirdly, it goes without saying that our credit ratings remain very important, so we need to be able to maintain those ratings. And lastly, it needs to be accretive to EPS. So subject to all of those conditions, nothing has changed. And clearly, as we work through our capital recycling initiatives, we'll have the opportunity to come back to market and explain our intention around that.
Okay. I'm just interested. I thought you said the pro forma impact of the sales programs was about 15% to gearing. Was that the right number you said?
Yes, that's right. Yeah.
Okay, so I mean, that has you at 6% gearing on a pro forma basis.
Yeah, the way I think about that is the intention of including those effectively secured or contracted cash flows on that slide was obviously just to give an indication of the direction of travel. So we do believe we have the ability to bring our gearing down to those levels indicated, the 5%-15%. You shouldn't take that and just assume that that's all that's going to happen, in the sense that we obviously have outflows going the other way as well. So it's not just those inflows that will bring it down, but was to give an indication to the market that those cash flows that have been secured or contracted are very substantial, and we expect them to come in in FY 2025.
So directionally, you know, we're sitting at 21% gearing, so slightly above our FY 2024 range. At the end of FY 2024, we're in the new range now in FY 2025, 5%-15%. Directionally, we would want to be tracking down towards the top end of that 5%-15% range by the end of FY 2025. And as we've said, we want to be within the range, by the end of FY 2026, that 5%-15%.
Okay, just the project realizations for FY 2026 still look pretty skinny, and obviously the timeframe from securing new work to be able to, you know, complete in that timeframe is gonna be challenging. Is there any other kind of avenues you have up your sleeve in terms of potentially bringing profits forward that you're thinking about for FY 2026?
Yeah, I think for 2026, when you look at Australia, development pipeline, it will be a transition year because 2027 is looking quite strong with One Circular Quay. What we secured today, that announced on One Darling Point, will be something that contributes into FY 2028. What I would say is in the CRU, there are a number of developments completing, in FY 2026. I do think that the CRU, as we talked about it, its primary purpose is realization of capital. However, we do have a number of joint ventures that we will be, managing. In terms of, what are the opportunities in 2026, I mean, as we're calling out, there are always, across the investment management business, there'll be, potentially transaction fees and other fees, that are an opportunity, for the group.
There'll be potentially other shorter-term deals that we'll be looking at, that could be in that investment management space. But, we'll be looking at the overall performance of IDC as we continue to move forward.
What are the... I mean, you're right to call that out. It's one of the keys will be the pace at which we can recycle capital that's been identified for recycling, and then, how quickly we can deploy that, into strategies which have an immediate yield, with regards to 2026.
Okay. So do you anticipate, you know, in the future that there'll be a much higher proportion of income that is identifiable through the investment division, day one of the year, rather than, I guess, a heavy reliance on development that the business kind of still relies on at the moment?
Yeah, I think if you look at the guidance we've provided to 2025, where we're calling out AUD 0.36 for IDC, the goal is for the future to have be more predictable and more reliable, but an investment segment will be a key contributor to that. So that is exactly the premise of the strategy and what we've got to execute into the future.
Yeah, that's right. So part of that is getting obviously 75% of our capital back into Australia, deploying 60% of our capital into investments, and we would expect that to generate over 50% of the group's EBITDA, and a lot of that should be quite predictable, you know, from the start of the year. So that goes a long way to giving greater visibility on earnings, and obviously increasing the earnings quality of the group.
Great. Thanks, Simon. Thanks, Tony.
Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. The next question comes from David Pobucky with Macquarie Group. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Hope you're well. Just following up on one of the last questions around the expected debt reduction of about AUD 1 billion in FY 2025. What further debt reduction are you looking at in FY 2026 to get to within that 5%-15% target range? How actually are you thinking about that, please?
Yeah, thanks for the question, David. It's, we've and we've called that out in the presentation. We thought that we've reached peak production in FY 2024, in terms of deploying capital off our own balance sheet into new development projects. We expect that to ease going forward. We've got certain capital recycling and coming back into the group. What we're really talking about now then is the allocation of that additional bucket of capital, the AUD 1.7 billion. And we haven't given yet the market a lot of detail as to how that's going to be deployed, with regard to paying down debt, returning capital to security holders or investing for future growth. Obviously, as we work through that bucket, we'll be able to come to market and give a little bit more color.
But certainly, we believe that that initial AUD 1 billion of paying down debt from that AUD 2.8 billion-dollar bucket, plus anticipated cash flows that we're seeing, gets us within that 5%-15% range by the end of FY 2026, without having to rely on, significantly on capital being recycled from that AUD 1.7 billion-dollar bucket and used specifically to pay down debt.
Thank you. And just the second one from me, maybe just your latest view on real estate markets. I mean, previously, I think this year you mentioned that you were seeing encouraging signs, the property cycle is turning, but the outlook remained uncertain. Just curious to know how your latest thoughts and thinking has shifted since then.
Yeah, I think if I look at the markets and internationally, I think when you look at the last 12 months, we've seen capital markets and deal activity drop by some 50%. I think we've been monitoring build-to-rent multifamily in our international cities, and in particular, the U.S., and there's been some transactions that are starting to show some positive outcomes, which could see and they're more at the smaller end, but there have been some positive transactions which have seen cap rates come in again a little bit. As we see, I called out the long-term ten-year bond rate since our strategy announcement in May, across both the U.S. and Australia, we've seen an eighty basis points drop in the ten-year bond rates for both of those two markets, so they bode well.
When I've been talking to the brokers, and the market, everyone feels that we've sort of hit that peak, in terms of the trough, or peak or trough, depending on how you look at the cycle. We've seen still strong, positive momentum in the luxury residential space and in residential in general. We're seeing low vacancies in that build-to-rent space across here in Australia and international markets. So I think that bodes well. I think leasing, and the market around office, ultimately, we've seen really from our perspective, the premium products are more sustainable, have performed better than the B and C, and that trend continued throughout the last 12 months, and we see that trend continuing into the future.
Great. Thanks for that. Good luck over the coming 12 months, guys.
Thanks, David.
Thank you.
No further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Lombardo for closing remarks.
Firstly, thank you for all joining, and we'll close today's call.
Thank you.