Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Lendlease's Strategy Update. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. There will be a presentation, followed by a question and answer session with management and Lendlease's covering research analyst. At which time, if you wish to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. I must advise you that this call is being recorded today, Monday, the 27th of May, 2024. I would now like to hand the call over to Mr. Tony Lombardo, Group Chief Executive Officer. Thank you, Tony. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining today's strategy update. I'm Tony Lombardo, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Lendlease. With me, Simon Dixon, our Chief Financial Officer. Sitting here at Barangaroo in Sydney, we're on the land of the Gadigal people, and I extend my respects to their elders, past and present. The purpose of today's session is to provide a strategic update on significant initiatives we are implementing to drive security holder value. Simon will talk through the financial impacts of our strategy, and then we'll have Q&A. Before I begin, I'd like to introduce Lendlease's chairman, Michael Ullmer, to make some introductory comments.
Thanks, Tony, and good morning, everyone. As chair of the company, I will make some opening comments before handing back to Tony. The board is ultimately accountable for the performance of the company. We recognize our performance and returns for security holders have been poor. As chair, on behalf of the board, I bear the burden of the accountability for these disappointing outcomes for our security holders. Lendlease started 2020 with our stock trading well. However, the onset of the global pandemic led to a deep sell-off in the markets, with real estate stocks hit hard and Lendlease hit particularly hard, given our international footprint and long-dated development exposures. As a developer of large urban projects, our bottom line is dependent on bringing in capital partners in order to commence developments, as well as realizing value from completed product.
Both these avenues have been heavily impacted by the cyclical downturn in property as capital has largely stayed on the sidelines. Many thought that as we moved into 2022, the property cycle would recover, but the downturn has lasted much longer than anticipated, given the uncertainty about rapidly rising interest rates. Further, in a number of our international gateway cities, the medium-term outlook for mixed-use developments is currently depressed and, in the case of the commercial office sector, undergoing structural change. With the benefit of hindsight, we may not have pushed as fast in deploying the gateway city's growth strategy that we launched in 2015. While we built an enviable offshore pipeline of quality developments, it was heavily skewed to long-dated projects that have been caught in this prolonged downturn in the property cycle.
Similarly, we should not have built up as much regional overhead ahead of the realization of value from this pipeline. There are some encouraging signs emerging that the property cycle is turning, but it is early days yet, and the outlook for interest rates remains uncertain. Clearly, Lendlease is leveraged to the upside when the property cycle turns, but we need to get our capital working much better and continue the work on significantly reducing our cost base further. Over the last three years, since Tony became the CEO, our response to these challenges has been to focus on preserving our core franchise and pulling the levers within our control to improve the bottom line. We reduced our headcount by almost 30% over the last three years through divestment and productivity improvements. Productivity improvements represents more than a third of this reduction.
We have completed asset sales across services and retirement living. We have also announced the sale of Communities and, most recently, announced a joint venture in Asian Life Sciences. In the U.S., we reduced the risk profile of our Construction business with a more focused East Coast presence and have begun to realize the value in select developments. We have maintained the momentum of our core Australian franchise, adding circa AUD 5 billion to our local development pipeline, and we continue to raise significant development capital from our partners around the world while growing our investments business with key hires and new funds established. However, there is a lot more that needs to be done and at an accelerated pace. Tony and Simon will take you through the actions that we are going to take to position the company for success, focusing on our core strengths and competitive advantage.
Lendlease has a superb reputation for its leading placemaking capabilities. It is important that we preserve the culture that drives this, while at the same time instilling a bottom-line performance focus to deliver the right outcomes for our security holders, capital partners, and our customers. The management team has the unanimous support of the board in executing these actions. We are highly cognizant of the importance of accountability. So reflecting the poor outcomes to security holders, Tony has agreed that he will not be receiving any short-term award for financial year 2024. As announced last week, I will retire at the AGM this November. Nicola Wakefield Evans will also retire at that time. The formal process to select the new chair has commenced, and I will canvass security holders over the coming weeks as part of my normal governance engagement with the market.
This will continue the process of board renewal, where over the last five years, we have appointed four new directors, each with deep executive experience in our core segments of real estate development and investments. Lendlease is at a critical juncture in its history. We have thought through very carefully about the necessary strategic refocus and taken some tough decisions. I am confident that we have the right team and commitment to realize the value for security holders that is inherent in our business, and I am determined to dedicate my final months with this great company to ensuring there is a smooth transition to the exciting future that lies ahead. I will now hand over to Tony. He and Simon will take you through the detail and respond to your questions. Thank you.
Thanks, Michael. As CEO of Lendlease, I also acknowledge our performance has not met expectations, and we need to do much better for our security holders. That said, we have not stood still. We are a much leaner and more focused company than we were three years ago. More change is required, given the operating environment and the sustained industry headwinds. We've identified this and have listened to our security holders on their concerns and ideas for improvement, and we are taking substantial further action. Today, we announced the necessary steps to further simplify and refocus the business, which we'll walk you through in detail and then take your questions. But the central point is simply this: we're committed to delivering consistent, sustainable returns to our security holders, and we will do what it takes to achieve this outcome.
This should provide strong foundation for Lendlease's future growth and profitability. We have a market-leading Australian business, delivering through the cycle returns of around 15% over five years. However, around two-thirds of our capital is currently deployed in offshore projects and assets. These projects have excellent fundamentals, but they are long dated, and their expected returns are too far into the future. In recent years, this weighting of capital has been a drag on our ability to deliver appropriate returns for our security holders. The best use and highest return of our capital is to primarily return it to the Australian market.
To this end, we are simplifying our organizational structure and right sizing our cost base, focusing on our strong performing Australian operations and our international investment management platform, and realizing AUD 4.5 billion of capital recycling through exiting international construction and accelerating capital release from our international projects and other assets. Let me take you through each of these, moving to slide five. The overriding principles guiding and prioritizing the actions we are taking are centered around maximizing security holder value and optimizing financial outcomes. We have undertaken a detailed and exhaustive analysis of various strategic options and assessed the pros and cons of each. A summary of these is set out in the appendix of today's presentation.
Based on this review, we have concluded that the most value-enhancing option for our security holders is to undertake an internal restructure and accelerate capital release through the majority of the benefits flowing through by the end of FY 2025. Within 12 months, we'll have actioned the first two items on the slide: restructuring the organization, reducing costs, and selling AUD 2.8 billion of assets to release capital. Our regional management structure will be removed as we become an Australian-centric business with international investment capability. This will be replaced by segment-led chief executives for investments, development, and construction, with a clear and singular focus on segment performance, driving stronger alignment to security holder outcomes. The new structure removes organizational layers and simplifies the business.
Significant cost reductions will be delivered with AUD 125 million per annum pre-tax in run rate cost savings within 12 months, with the full run rate benefit in FY 2026.... In terms of capital release, the AUD 2.8 billion includes the announced AUD 1.3 billion sale of 12 community projects, with the process subject to achieving conditions precedent and regulatory approvals, and the recent sale of our life science interest in Asia to establish a new joint venture with Warburg Pincus, also subject to conditions precedent. In addition, sale processes are underway for the full exit of our U.S. Military Housing business and the sale of our interest in the completed TRX commercial assets. We are also progressing the sale of our remaining 25% investment in the Keyton retirement living platform and our senior living asset in China.
During the next 18 months, our focus will be on the third action, divesting our international construction operations. This will enable us to focus on our most profitable market, our home market, Australia. We have largely exited our Asian construction business through the establishment of the life sciences joint venture, and are already well progressed on the divestment of our U.S. construction business. In the U.K., we're in the early stages of preparing the business for sale in an improving market with a strong backlog and preferred workbook of more than AUD 5 billion. Finally, we have commenced a release of AUD 2.4 billion of capital from our international development projects, partially offset by forecast expenditure of AUD 700 million for Engineering and U.K. building remediation work, resulting in a net AUD 1.7 billion in capital release. This acceleration will focus on three key areas.
First, we'll look to sell land and inventory held on our balance sheet. Second, for our land management agreements, we are the master developer, and we'll work with our partners to realize value and accelerate the release of capital through either bringing in new partners or land sale. Thirdly, on the 8 projects we have commenced with capital partners, we'll take these projects through to completion. Once complete, these projects will add to international FUM or be divested when stabilized. Importantly, we have not originated developments in international markets for the past 12 months. I want to emphasize that with 17 development projects internationally, each held in different structures and with different partners, including governments, we'll be disciplined in balancing the velocity of capital release with value generation for our security holders. Details on these project structures can be found in the appendix.
Turning now to how we'll deliver our strategy. Under a simplified model, we are removing our regional management structure and organizational layers. Newly appointed segment chief executives for investments, development, and construction will be solely focused on the performance of their respective segment, including P&L accountability and operational outcomes. We believe our new structure will drive improved financial performance for each operating segment and in turn, the group. We've established a capital release unit or CRU, to strategically maximize embedded value for our security holders through the accelerated recycling of capital and the divestment of international construction. I'll be directly accountable for its performance and the orderly capital release from the businesses and projects. Supporting me will be key senior executives with deep experience across development and construction.
They'll be responsible for the day-to-day execution of the capital recycling and divestment program, and their KPIs will be linked to Security Holder outcomes. Moving to slide eight, and focusing on each of the go-forward segments in more detail, starting with investments. Our existing investments, platform, and partnerships provide a strong foundation to scale up across select international cities and markets, with 62% of our funds under management derived from the Australian market and 38% of funds under management derived from offshore. Our priorities for this segment are clear: continuing to drive performance across our current investment assets and operations to deliver returns for our capital partners. We'll build on the more than 70 existing partnerships and play to our strengths as we match products with our partners' investment preferences.
We'll work closely with our partners to devise the right strategies while managing Lendlease's capital as efficiently as possible. We'll leverage our scale by removing the burden of regional cost structures that have weighed on performance. International offices will be lean and run by high-quality frontline resources, and we'll service these operations with centralized enterprise support.... We'll pursue profitable growth through both margin expansion and growth in funds under management. Our Australian and Asian operations continue to perform, with operating leverage to be realized as the European and U.S. operations increase scale and productivity. Moving to the development segment, we'll focus on strengthening our Australian pipeline and continuing to partner early, with a focus on capital-efficient ownership structures. Given the underlying strength and proven track record of our Australian operations, growing our pipeline will be core to delivering sustained financial performance for the group.
Fortunately, there is a strong opportunity set in Australia that Lendlease is well placed to win. We'll continue to introduce capital partners early to manage our capital position, sharing the returns with them while diversifying execution risk and capital allocation for the group. Capital efficiency will remain key to performance, with the Australian business demonstrating a strong track record of generating attractive capital returns through the property cycle. Our origination will be targeted on a balance of short cycle and long-dated development, with an emphasis on projects that we can put into work in progress as soon as practical. We are committed to working closely with our partners to source and secure new development products, with a focus on yielding assets that ultimately move to our investment platform. And to be clear, all our current international development projects will move to the CRU.
Now, on construction, our strategic focus areas in Australia are: remaining a partner of choice for governments and key clients, continued delivery capability for the integrated model, and maintaining operating efficiency. Our Australian construction business is a market leader. We are fortunate to have established this position over many years of trusted performance, with a portfolio comprised of highly valued government and corporate projects across growing sectors such as defense, data centers, and social infrastructure. We leverage this expertise to originate and unlock development and external construction opportunities, such as the Martin Place Metro Station and Macquarie Group's Over Station headquarters. Our proven delivery capability and integrated model is a key differentiator in the Australian marketplace, delivering precincts such as Barangaroo, Darling Square, Melbourne Quarter, and Victoria Harbour.
We'll continue to refine and enhance the risk profile of the business by setting appropriate thresholds and focusing on a higher proportion of fee for service rather than fixed price contracts. As with development, we'll seek to build upon our current AUD 11 billion pipeline of backlog and preferred work across both our government and corporate clients. Now turning to the capital release unit. The capital release unit will be focused on realizing AUD 4.5 billion of capital and enabling further simplification of the group. The performance of the CRU will be measured by its ability to balance the speed of execution with economic outcomes that unlock value for our security holders. Expediting the release of capital from offshore projects will accelerate the group's target to deliver returns above the cost of equity, with capital currently in longer-dated projects weighing on our historical performance.
As I've already noted, we are moving quickly with AUD 2.8 billion of assets currently on the market and a further net AUD 1.7 billion of capital from assets that are available for sale. While the CRU is primarily a vehicle to liberate and recycle capital, we expect the unit will be earnings positive in each year of operation. The cost base of the CRU is expected to roll off as assets and businesses are divested and overheads are transferred with the sale. Where we have commitments to complete offshore development projects alongside our capital and joint venture partners, and these projects are already underway, we'll complete these in the CRU. They include projects such as 1 Java Street and La Cienega in the U.S. with an Australian super fund, 60 Guest Street in the U.S. with a Canadian pension fund.
In Europe, Stratford Cross and Milano Santa Giulia with a Canadian pension fund, and in Asia, Comcentre with Singtel and Paya Lebar Green with Certis. Further capital will be required within the CRU to complete these projects. However, deployed capital will be recovered upon exit and value maximized. A full breakdown of the components and treatment of assets in the CRU can be found in the appendix of today's presentation. Outlined on slide nine are the key value drivers of our operating segments and capital to be released from the CRU, as well as our invested capital across each segment. The company's performance will be focused on EBITDA growth across investments and construction, operating profit in development that drives strong return on invested capital outcomes, and releasing capital from the CRU, providing the building blocks that underpin Lendlease's embedded value. In investments, this includes our Australian and international platforms.
We'll continue to grow our investment operations to achieve greater scale, while remaining focused on our partners and prioritizing profitable growth. Our average EBITDA margin of 41.2% is expected to increase over time, including through improved operational performance and an increase in acquisition and performance fees. We'll also seek to grow the yield on the group's co-investments, while targeting co-investments of 5%-10% of capital deployed. This will provide alignment with our partners and continued exposure to operating leverage as the platform scale. In development, this is our Australian business only. We have a strong existing pipeline, including current work in progress of more than AUD 10 billion. We are actively expanding the Australian pipeline and competing for more than AUD 40 billion of current market opportunities, and we'll continue to reweight capital to this high return business as it is progressively released from the CRU.
In construction, this is our Australian business only. We have a strong backlog revenue of AUD 4.5 billion that will continue to grow, and we have high visibility of new revenues from a preferred workbook of more than AUD 6.5 billion, spanning key sectors of social infrastructure, workplace, defense, and data centers. Our EBITDA margin has performed well through the cycle, averaging more than 3% per annum, and is expected to benefit from favorable client and sector exposure and strong risk management practices. Across the Capital Release Unit, which includes all the group's remaining assets and businesses, we'll measure performance by the speed and value at which capital is released, with redeployment into more productive units- uses to drive value for security holders.
Of the AUD 4.5 billion in capital that is anticipated to be released, more than half of this, some AUD 2.8 billion, should be realized by the end of FY 2025. We expect to realize approximately AUD 3.42 per security of net tangible assets from the CRU alone. Turning now to Australia. We have a proud and rich history of delivery in Australia, and expertise in helping to shape some of the country's most iconic projects and developments. From Caltex House, Australia's first all-concrete skyscraper, and once Sydney's tallest building, to icons such as Australia Square and the Sydney Opera House, to key social and infrastructure projects such as the Royal Children's Hospital in Melbourne and the Sydney Olympic Village, to newer precincts such as Barangaroo, Melbourne Quarter and Victoria Harbour.
We create places that are vibrant, authentic, and valued by the communities who use them, and capital partners that invest alongside us. It's a strong legacy that we intend to continue and build upon. Turning to slide 12. Our strong track record in Australia is anchored by our integrated business model and our ability to source and create assets, bringing together our combined expertise across investments, development, and construction. We have been playing to these strengths. Most recently with circa AUD 5 billion of new projects secured in the past two years, including One Circular Quay and our project at Queen Victoria Market. The competitive advantage generated by this integration is realized in many ways. Our deep expertise across the real estate value chain, evidenced by the AUD 3.1 billion One Circular Quay project in Sydney, due to complete in FY 2027 and already 68% pre-sold by value.
Strong origination capability, leveraging our proven urban regeneration credentials. Working with key stakeholders, including government and business, to unlock development opportunities and create value for our partners. Access to third-party capital to fund developments by coupling our proven development capability with our market-leading sustainability credentials, which remain at the heart of all of our projects.... and execution excellence through project management and de-risk delivery. We have made strong progress growing our Australian development business, taking our existing pipeline to more than AUD 13 billion. And we'll be seeking to build on our development pipeline in a capital efficient manner with capital partnership and land management structures. From FY 2024 onwards, we can see AUD 40 billion of new opportunities in the Australian marketplace that are concentrated on the East Coast and play to our strengths in urban regeneration.
We are in advanced stages on AUD 13 billion of opportunities, which include the final two stages of the residential developments in Sydney and a Melbourne one. We are in the early stages on AUD 27 billion of new opportunities, all of which provides us with confidence in the outlook. I'll now hand over to Simon to talk through the financials.
Thanks, Tony, and good morning, everyone. Turning first to the pro forma financials on slide 15. On this slide, we have illustrated the historical earnings composition and historical performance of IDC, the CRU, and the group. Also shown is the future target composition of earnings of the ongoing business, following the wind down of the CRU. IDC has delivered more than 90% of the group's EBITDA over the last five years, at an average operating ROE of 11.8% and group ROE of 10%, with strong contributions from the Australian integrated business and the investment management business in Asia. Operating profit after tax has been the group's primary earnings metric for a number of years and excludes investment property revaluations in the investment segment and material one-off items that could not reasonably have been expected to arise from normal operations.
The operating ROE has been calculated in accordance with this definition of operating profit after tax. The group ROE excludes investment property revaluations only and is more illustrative of how the group intends to present its primary earnings metric from FY 25 onward. IDC group ROE of 10% over the last five years is lower than the 14.9% achieved in Australia over the same period, as disclosed earlier in this presentation. This historic pro forma IDC group ROE has been negatively impacted by the performance of our international investments business, particularly in Europe and the U.S., which has faced more pronounced structural headwinds, and by having a lower proportion of capital allocated to the Australian business as compared with our desired future target.
Improved performance in our investments business in these offshore regions is required and is expected to be driven by active portfolio management, the reduction of our co-ownership interest as conditions improve, and the right sizing of our cost base. Moving now to costs on slide 16. The majority of our overhead costs are employee expenses. In any given year, this typically accounts for 60%-70% of total overhead. Overhead is captured in the other expenses line in our statutory profit and loss account, but is not separately identified. Since 2021, we have taken significant costs out of our overhead, as evidenced by this chart, which shows the reduction in employee costs year on year. This can be directly tied back to the audited statutory accounts in note 7. As we move forward with the changes announced today, we expect to take further overhead costs out.
This anticipated overhead reduction relates to people, IT, and corporate tenancy costs. As mentioned by Tony, we currently estimate that this reduction on a full year run rate basis will equate to approximately AUD 125 million, half of which is employee expense, and the majority of which, which relates to CRU. This is in addition to the measures announced in July 2023, which are expected to reduce overhead employee expense by AUD 60 million in FY 2024. We intend to modify our future public market disclosures, including in our statutory accounts, to specifically identify these overhead costs. We will also clearly split these costs out between IDC, CRU, and corporate from FY 2025 onwards. We expect that as the capital balance in CRU comes down, so too will the related overhead, and we don't anticipate any material stranded costs to remain within CRU.
Indicatively, we expect CRU overhead to be 30%-40% of total overhead for next year. Listed out on slide 17 are estimates of anticipated impairments and charges for FY 2024, that are necessary as a result of the decisions arising from the announced strategy. In relation to our international development book, we've estimated an impairment range of AUD 450 million-AUD 550 million, which equates to 4%-5% of total group tangible assets. This relates to projects which will no longer be developed out in full, and will look to realize value through land sales, and is primarily in respect to projects with office and long-dated condominium exposure. A good example is our mixed-use office and condo project in San Francisco at 30 Van Ness and our final office plot at Elephant Park.
This estimate does not include any provision against projects that we are developing in full alongside our joint venture and capital partners, or key projects in the AUD 2.8 billion of assets currently on market, because there is no change in intended use, and we do not consider these projects to be impaired. After excluding the aforementioned projects, the anticipated impairment provision is approximately 20% of the residual international development capital. An impairment range of AUD 625 million-AUD 775 million has been estimated for goodwill, deferred tax assets, and other costs. Goodwill of approximately AUD 500 million primarily relates to the acquisition of the Bovis Construction business in the U.S. and the U.K. in 1999. Any such impairment is non-cash.
There is also the possibility of certain deferred tax assets associated with these businesses and overseas development projects being written down as a consequence of a future sale. We also anticipate a provision in the range of AUD 75 million-AUD 150 million for redundancy, tenancy, and other break costs arising as a consequence of the strategy announced today. This primarily relates to our international business. Tangible asset impairments are expected to increase FY 2024 gearing by 0.6%-0.7% and reduce net tangible assets per security by AUD 0.80-AUD 1.18. These balance sheet and profit and loss estimates remain subject to finalization as part of our FY 2024 results. Moving now to capital management and the capital breakdown by segment on slide 19.
At half year 2024, our total invested capital was AUD 10.2 billion, with AUD 7.2 billion of capital in the development segment and AUD 4 billion of capital in the investment segment. This is presented on the left-hand side of the slide. In addition, for illustrative pro forma purposes, we have included the impact of anticipated impairments, taking the midpoint of the range presented on the earlier slide, with overall invested capital on this basis totaling AUD 8.9 billion. Under the new structure, the pro forma IDC invested capital totals AUD 4.4 billion as at half year 2024. This is split AUD 3.2 billion in investments, AUD 1.8 billion in development, and negative AUD 0.6 billion in construction. The pro forma CRU at half year 2024 had a total invested capital balance of AUD 4.5 billion.
Within this AUD 4.5 billion, there are AUD 2.8 billion of assets on market and net AUD 1.7 billion of capital from assets available for sale, as further illustrated on the right-hand side of the slide. Moving now to slide 20. As we release capital from the CRU, we intend to reallocate capital based on the capital allocation framework as presented on this slide. Excess cash will be allocated to debt reduction, capital returns to security holders and growth. In the short to medium term, we will prioritize debt reduction and capital returns to security holders over growth. Firstly, on debt reduction, we intend to sustainably reach the midpoint of our revised target gearing level of 5%-15% by the end of FY 2026. Secondly, while concurrently reducing our gearing level, we will look to return capital to security holders.
Finally, excess capital will be allocated to growth initiatives. We will continue to assess the merits of investing for growth against returning capital security holders, noting that our Australian business has historically provided a very attractive return on equity. The changes announced today are expected to deliver lower risk long-term through cycle returns over and above the group's cost of equity. While this cost will move over time with prevailing market and economic conditions, we believe the group's current cost of equity exceeds 10%. The simplified and revised capital allocation targets presented on Slide 21 replace the group's historical portfolio management framework, or PMF targets. The avoidance of doubt, the PMF, together with previously communicated group and segment targets, such as development commencements and completions and FUM targets, have been superseded by the various targets and ranges presented today.
Consistent with the strategic direction taken, there will be a material overall reweighting of group capital to Australia over time, increasing it from 36% at half year 2024 to more than 75% on a group basis. On a pro forma basis, excluding the CRU, Australian capital within IDC was approximately 57% at half year 2024. Segment allocation of invested capital between investments and development is broadly consistent with prior targets. We are targeting a capital allocation of greater than 60% for investments as the group continues to pivot to more sustainable recurring earnings. This compares, to 36% of capital allocated at 31 December 2023, and 73% on a pro forma basis for IDC, excluding the CRU. Target group gearing has been lowered by 5% from the prior range of 10%-20%, lowering the risk profile of the group.
The shift to a higher proportion of investment earnings, lower business risk, is expected to support an improved investment-grade credit rating over time. Moving now to Slide 22. In line with our capital allocation framework, we intend to return up to AUD 500 million of capital to security holders as capital is released from the AUD 2.8 billion of assets that are currently on market, conditional on the following. Firstly, completion of the previously announced communities transaction. Secondly, forecast gearing reaching our target 5%-15% level by the end of FY 2026, irrespective of security repurchases. Thirdly, maintaining our existing credit rating. And lastly, buybacks being accretive to earnings per share. In sizing up the potential return to security holders through an initial buyback, we have given consideration to the following.
Firstly, we expect to generate more than gross AUD 2.8 billion from assets currently on market by the end of FY25. Secondly, we will need to allocate approximately AUD 1 billion of this to paying down debt to bring gearing down towards the midpoint of the 5%-15% target range by the end of FY26. Thirdly, we have funding commitments to complete existing international developments, including with important capital partners. And lastly, we have funding commitments in relation to closing out engineering in Australia and the Building Safety Act in the U.K., and to fund the anticipated redundancy, tenancy, and other break costs in relation to today's announcement. Taking these considerations into account, we believe up to AUD 500 million is an appropriate target size for this first buyback.
However, for the avoidance of doubt, we are anticipating there will be other opportunities to consider further buybacks as we continue to execute the strategy. ... I'll now hand back to Tony.
Thanks, Simon. The actions we have announced today are designed to enhance Security Holder value by delivering a simplified organizational structure, a right size and lower cost base with AUD 125 million of pre-tax savings in the next 12 months. A lower risk profile business by focusing on our strong performing Australian operations and international investment platform. AUD 4.5 billion of capital recycling with AUD 2.8 billion completed in the first 12 months. A stronger balance sheet, up to an initial AUD 500 million of capital intended to be returned to Security Holders, and a strong platform for profitable future growth in segments where we have a proven track record. Finally, to wrap up, I want to assure all of our stakeholders that we are taking significant strategic action at an accelerated pace to leverage our key competitive strengths and simplify our business.
We are ultimately aiming to position Lendlease as Australia's leading integrated real estate business with international investment management capability. Our team is aligned and committed to delivering this, and we look forward to updating you on our progress we are making at our 2024 full year results in August. Thanks, everyone. We'll now open up for questions.
Thank you. The line is now open to analysts. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your first question comes from David Pobucky with Macquarie Group. Please go ahead.
Oh, good morning, Tony, Simon, and team. Thanks for taking my questions. Just the first one, I mean, clearly a significant fundamental shift to the business. Could you perhaps talk to some of the recent conversations or the response that you've had from capital partners, clients, lenders, other key stakeholders, and maybe just talk to the strength of those relationships, please?
Thanks, David, for the first question. I mean, we constantly are talking to capital partners. I think our capital partners see this as a real simplification of our business, how we're gonna work together. We've given them clear commitment on how we will complete out the 8 projects that we've identified today. So my view is that the strategy offers that simplicity. I think that's what the market's been calling for, a focused Lendlease, and I believe this strategy delivers that. I may hand to Simon just to give an update on how our discussions have been going just on with banks and rating agencies.
Thank you, Tony. It's... Look, certainly, you know, we believe that this delivers, you know, a simplified Lendlease, as Tony mentioned. We believe it lowers the overall business risk profile of Lendlease once we get through the execution of the strategy. And certainly, will go a long way to improving the earnings quality of Lendlease with more of our overall earnings coming from investments. And all of that is generally seen as credit positive from a sort of a debt perspective.
Thank you. And just the second one from me. You've been speaking to lower risk in the business with attractive returns on equity. I think in your opening remarks or through the presentation, you mentioned that the group's current cost of equity currently exceeds 10%. I don't think you've explicitly provided an ROE target. Maybe if you could just talk to that, please.
Yeah, I think in today's presentation, we're aiming to really create a platform and portfolio that delivers sustained returns above our cost of capital. I think Simon clearly articulated that cost of capital will be dependent on market conditions at different times. So it will vary, but we see that cost of capital today at 10%. We've no longer provided this explicit 8%-10% that we previously had in our former PMF target ranges.
Yeah, I think just adding to that, I mean, it's I did mention sort of where we see it today would be sort of, you know, 10% or sort of in excess of, depending on how that's kind of modeled out. Clearly, we believe we've set the business up on a go-forward basis for IDC to not only meet our cost of equity capital, but to exceed our cost of equity capital, and that's fundamentally important for any business.
We have confidence that we can deliver on that, given the historical performance of the Australian business, and also the plans that we have in place, to further improve, to improve some of our offshore businesses, that remain within IDC going forward, through asset repositioning, you know, selling down co-ownership interests, in time, when markets dictate, and also looking to, you know, rebase the existing cost base, which we believe has historically been overburdened.
Thanks, guys. Good luck with the strategy.
... Thank you, David.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Simon Chan with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, Tony. Good morning, Simon. Thanks for taking my questions. Hey, just wondering, how much money, how much cash, do you guys foresee as being required that you know you need to put into your projects that you want to sell? Like, how much money do you need to put in before you can actually get money back out, in relation to those development projects?
So Mike, just firstly, we're aiming to release the AUD 4.5 billion, and as we called out, we'll have AUD 2.8 billion that comes back in that first 12 months. In the future development bit that we've called out 8 projects, I might get Simon just to talk through that net asset position of what we intend to invest over time.
Thanks, Tony. I think that with the 2.8, one way to think about this, and it can be back solved, is to think about how we've sized up the return of capital to security holders from that, first lot of assets which are currently on market, that first lot of AUD 2.8 billion. Where I sort of called out debt reduction of AUD 1 billion, we clearly have some ongoing funding costs in relation to that UK BSA matter, and also our engineering business. We have some redundancy and break costs, and I called out the AUD 500 million in relation to the buyback. And sort of working backwards from that, the number that falls out is roughly about AUD 700 million.
That effectively represents those commitments to those eight joint venture projects, which Tony previously mentioned, that we are committed to seeing through completing, developing alongside our joint venture and capital partners.
Okay, cool. And therefore, that those bucket of assets will form the FY 2025 to FY 2028 potential asset sales. Is that right, Simon?
Yeah, I think the way to think about it is that where we've kind of called out that we've got the two tranches with the AUD 2.8 billion +
If you refer-
the release of the AUD 1.7 billion, effectively, I would accrete up that second release of the AUD 1.7 billion, that additional AUD 700 million to make that AUD 2.4 billion in time. So as we deploy that capital into those projects, clearly, we expect that to come back.
If you refer to page 36 and 37 in the appendices, we've tried to set that out so that we're very clear on where we see, on 37, land available for sale, the joint ventures will complete, and then the land management agreements we'll work through with our partners.
Yeah. So that steps out the individual projects. In other projects within CRUs are really generally being put into a kind of more of a sort of minimum viable phasing from a CapEx perspective from this point.
Okay, fair enough. The initial AUD 2.8 billion tranche of asset sales, but we all know about communities, we all know about life sciences announcement last week. Just wondering, can I assume or can we all assume that you, you're at the pointy end of the process for the remainder? Because I recall, Tony, at half your result, you mentioned there were a few impediments to the asset sales, et cetera, et cetera. Today, you seem pretty confident that they'll all be achieved by the end of FY25. So, yeah, what's the progress like there?
Yeah, I mean, I think in the presentation, we've kicked off processes in this half for both TRX and military housing. So those processes, they're progressing. And we've got processes underway for both Retirements. So, we feel that those all, all those processes are moving forward in the right direction, and we have assumed, and we're confident that we should settle those in the next 12 months.
Okay, terrific. That's all I got this morning. Thanks, guys.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Tom Bodor with UBS. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Tony and Simon. I just was interested in your sort of discussions around selling construction. I appreciate they're not on the market yet, but if you struggle to find a buyer for those businesses in the U.K. and U.S., would you consider running them down and not bidding for future projects, just running them down to zero? And if you did, would you therefore expect to see the working capital outflow without any consideration for the business?
So thanks, Tom, for the question. Just firstly, just if I look at the parts of the construction business, we recently sold half of the Asian Construction operations, as part of the new joint venture we established in life sciences. On the U.S., we are well progressed on a transaction, so we'll update the market on how that progresses in the short term. So that is something we've already got underway. On the U.K. business, we have got it in its early phases of getting it ready to bring to market. We think both the U.S. and U.K. are very good ongoing businesses, and we feel we'll be able to find the buyers for both. So we are assuming over that next 18-month period, to have executed on transactions for both of those platforms.
Okay, that's great. Thanks. And then just on your slide at the back there, where you talk through the different buckets of development projects you're exiting on 37. You talked a little bit about what you need to commit in terms of capital to complete those joint ventures, like One Java and, and MIND, and all the ones where you have partners, partners you want to honor the obligations. Just wanted to know how long that will take to complete those projects?
Those projects are all forecast to complete over the next three years. They will all either generate some AUD 7 billion of additional funds under management for our group, or at the right time, we'll be exiting and maximize security holder value once those assets are stabilized in that period.
That, that's great. And just following on from that, the land management agreements to be revised, how do you see that sort of playing out, and how much capital is in those various long-dated, predominantly U.K. projects?
Yeah, on the land management, today, we have circa AUD 400 million in capital in that category. We are aiming to work with our partners to make sure we take them through planning, get through various remediation to make sure we create the value. We're the master developer, so on extracting value, we will look to actually potentially do a lot of land sales on those plots to bring in other developers to develop them out. And if we were to go vertical on anything, we'll limit Lendlease's capital to no more than 25% to support things that we believe could add value. But it is, as Simon pointed, we're gonna be minimizing the amount of capital. It's about realizing the value for our partners, and extracting that value as fast as possible.
Where you don't have material capital and it's a partnership with government, can you just exit some of these quite cleanly? Like, I don't know, Euston or Thamesmead.
I think what we'll work through is with all of our partners, we'll be working out ways to best maximize the site with our master development capabilities and then work with them on the appropriate and the right strategies going forward.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Ben Brayshaw with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Tony and Simon. Thanks, thank you for your time. Just have a few questions. The first one is on the new guidance for gearing to FY 2024, modestly above 20%. I was wondering if you could just sort of step through, I guess, the contributors to that number being a little bit higher than I think previous guidance was around the mid-teens.
Yeah, I might get Simon to comment on that one, but I think our modest guidance was originally we had gone to market at 15%, so we're saying that's the midpoint, roughly, and then, you know, we're guiding around that midpoint or a little bit higher. So I might just get Simon to touch on that.
Yeah. Thanks, Tony. Thanks, Ben. It's... I think the previous guidance was at or near the midpoint of the range. We've indicated now that we expect this to be sort of slightly higher than that sort of midpoint of the range, and that primarily relates to the timing of certain land sales. We didn't expect to make a profit on these land sales, we expect to trade broadly at book, but the timing has been really shifted from sort of FY 2024 into FY 2025.
Yeah. Okay. Terrific. Thanks. Thanks, Simon. And just on the guidance for the cost out of AUD 125 million, are you able to just comment on how much of that will be derived at group level, i.e., unallocated overhead, or D&A versus what might sit within the segmentals?
Sure. Again, it's thank you. That's basically all overhead, so that's all sort of within that unallocated cost bucket that we report through other expenses. As I called out in the presentation, we're cognizant that we need to provide a bit more clarity around that. We're gonna do that going forward, exactly where that sits. So that sits sort of across, you know, that IDC bucket or it sits on top of CRU, and it sits on top of corporate. For that AUD 125 million specifically, the majority will relate to CRU. That AUD 125 million, approximately half of that was people costs. The remainder relates to IT and other break costs. So the majority of those people costs sit within CRU, with the IT and other costs, they're effectively spread across sort of IDC, CRU, and corporate.
Understand. Just, just my final question. On CRU, the carrying value for international construction, it, it appears to include about $500 million in goodwill, over and above the negative working capital. I was just wondering, how you think about the valuation support for the goodwill and maybe some of the key assumptions there around the multiple based on earnings?
Yeah. Perhaps, Tony, I'll take this one. Look, we've highlighted, in terms of the financial impact of the strategy, that the full amount of the goodwill in relation to our international construction business in the U.S. and the U.K., is at risk. Clearly, that remains subject to closing out at FY 2024, and consultation with auditors. But the way that I would think about this is that once one makes the decision to effectively exit these businesses, the support for that carrying value can no longer rely on the future possible work that is yet to be won. So effectively, the value in use calculation fundamentally changes, which puts a good amount of that at risk.
Terrific. Thanks for your time, guys.
... Thank you. Your next question comes from James Druce with CLSA. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Tony. Good morning, Simon. Just on the international investment platform, I just wanted to clear up how you're sort of going to continue to grow that. Is that gonna be selling all the assets to offshore clients, or are you actually just gonna continue to grow that investment platform through buying and selling assets?
I think the key for the international platform, James, is a couple of points. Today, we've got about 38% of our current FUM in offshore markets. With a number of the developments, the eight that we talked about, we have some AUD 7 billion of product that we're creating that will grow those vehicles. The future of how we will aim to operate will be making sure we have the right high-quality frontline resources in each of the markets. It will be a very lean structure. It will no longer be burdened by the regional cost structure. The team will be focused on strategies that meet the requirements of our partners, and today we service some 70 key capital partners around the globe, and we'll aim to service them in the future.
Okay, so as opposed to developing out those assets, you'll still look to develop more assets in those jurisdictions?
I think it will come down to Lendlease working with our capital clients, looking at strategies that they would like to deploy, ensuring that we've got the capability to support them and help execute those strategies with our partners. Raising that capital in advance to anything that we would create in those markets, that's the key, and limiting Lendlease's capital, to that 5%-10% of co-investment.
I would add, Tony, James, obviously we're putting very sort of strong guardrails around that, too, in terms of the capital allocations to international at 25% versus Australia at 75% +.
Just by way of example, it would be something like we've done recently in Asia. We created the LINO, which was a Lendlease innovation product. It was 85% with a capital partner, 15% Lendlease, and had a very just simple strategy of where it was deploying money and capital into the right products that fit that mandate.
Okay. Maybe just a follow-up. Is a simple way to think about the value creation to just net off the AUD 3.42 capital return to shareholders from the NTA, assuming that all gets done, and then just put an ROE on the Aussie business to get the earnings, and then get a sort of, yeah, a PE on that to see if you can get a share price reasonably above the NTA? Is there anything other sort of things that we're missing in terms of actually creating value for the shareholders in financial terms there, apart from the buyback?
I think, James, is firstly, I think the way we've set out the pro forma, and there was a clear slide that talks through the earnings. You'd look at IDC, as you stated, which is the Australian business and the international investment management platform. We've got clear earnings that will come off each of those different parts of the business, and a growth trajectory around those three components. To your point, we've set up the CRU, which does have a value of AUD 3.42 on an NTA basis. So that is right, and we've taken today, as we've announced, we've assumed the write downs are going through that AUD 3.42 NTA. So it's assuming a AUD 1.3 billion dollar reduction.
So we'd be assuming that we recover that, and deliver positive profits through that vehicle over the next three years as we realize that capital.
I think perhaps I can add to that. I think that's a good way to look at it, James. I think the only other thing I would add is, as Tony mentioned early on in the presentation, we do expect CRU to be positive to earnings, given where we're seeing assets realizing. I think we appreciate that it is more difficult to model out. I think we've got some good building blocks for IDC for the kind of go-forward business. Within CRU, elements of that will be relatively easy to model out. For example, international construction. What will be more difficult is obviously the timing around that, when that will exit the group. Similarly with CRU with development, which is always, I think, analysts have found that a bit more difficult to model out.
We acknowledge that, and I think, to the extent that there's the possibility to, I guess, generate returns over and above, the book value indicated, you know, I think that's something we'll have to sit down with you and, and work through how best to provide you enough information so you can get a, a good handle on that.
Yeah, okay. And one more, if I may. There's nothing really in the presentation on the culture of the company. How do we think about that going forward? Is there anything that needs to change, or is it more sort of just bring it back to Australian glory?
Look, I think for the culture of the company, just as a couple of things. I mean, over the last three years, we have been on a simplification and productivity journey, and to date, we've reduced our workforce by 30%. Today's announcements will see another 35% reduction in that workforce. I think the positive thing for me is we every year, I do a customer survey and then people engagement survey, and both have moved minimally over the last 12 months. Our customer scores are actually quite high, and that's been maintained over the last 12 months, and our people have, my people scores have remained consistent. The culture we want at Lendlease is a performance culture.
We're very focused on ensuring we deliver the right Security Holder returns, and we deliver the right outcomes for our customers, which will in turn make this place an exciting place to work for our people.
All right, thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Suraj Nebhani with Citi. Please go ahead.
Oh, thank you. Just following on from James's, you know, questions there around the CRU. Is it, like, is it best to say that the, like, the AUD 3.42 per unit is essentially comparable to the, the share price currently? So, you know, the stock's currently AUD 6 something. So out of that, roughly, you'd expect to realize AUD 3.42 over the next few years. Is that, is that the way to think of it?
I think it's certainly we've set that based on the book net tangible asset value, adjusted-
Sure.
For the midpoint of that financial impact slide range, so the possible impairments, et cetera. I think the extent to which we can recycle and then sell assets, exit businesses over and above that book carrying value, then clearly there is upside to that. Tony did mention at the outset that he does expect CRU to be positive to earnings, and that's after accounting for the allocation of overheads and finance costs. So, you know, one could expect that there is potential upside. I do acknowledge that that's a bit harder to model out. So again, I think that's something that we need to kind of work with you guys to think about how best to capture that in your models.
Sure. Sure, that makes sense. And just on some of the provisions that I think you talked about, Simon, in your remarks, so you flagged the engineering stuff, and the building, UK building remediation. Has there been any change to those numbers from what has been previously disclosed, the building remediation and the engineering commitments?
No, but what we will do is that, of course, that the full year, we'll provide an update, but there has been no change.
Sure. Sure, that makes sense. And the final one was on the FY 2024 earnings guidance. Can I-- Like, we have the AUD 450 million number that was provided today in the presentation. Can I just check that it still includes the gains from communities and what timing, I guess, do you expect that sale to settle in?
Yeah, so the AUD 450 million, so we've just equated today. It does include both the communities, the 12 joint venture projects, and we've also included the joint venture with Warburg Pincus. They both have CPs, and we are assuming they will complete before 30 June this year. They're included in that AUD 450 million and 7% ROE.
Okay, thank you. Thanks for that.
Thanks, Suraj.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Alex Prineas with Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just, most of mine have been answered. Just wondering on the, you previously alluded to or stated an aspiration of AUD 70 billion of FUM by 2026. A big part of that was, you know, developments coming into as they complete coming into the management platform. Just wondering, yeah, what changes will this have, these the new strategy have to that aspiration?
Yeah, I mean, I think a couple of things from the prior strategy, we've walked back from our previous PMF and those targets. Our focus for the funds platform is for profitable growth, building upon the performance of where the business has been averaging a 41% EBITDA margin over the last five years. We think the steps today that we've taken around the regional structure and the costs allow us to simplify the cost base, and the teams will be targeted all around driving the right returns for our capital partners. That will drive performance in the funds platform.
Okay. So, no sort of aspirational FUM target. It's just opportunistic, profitable opportunities that you see.
Yeah, I think exactly that point. We're looking for profitable growth. I mean, I have flagged that there's some AUD 7 billion of FUM under development in our international market, so that will, of course, go into our funds under management. But we are very focused about driving the right returns for our investors and then for Lendlease security holders.
Thanks. And just follow up there. So on the projects that you are taking through to completion, so is it reasonable to assume that even where you sell the project, you would retain the management of those projects then? Or is that not necessarily, is that just on a case-by-case, project-by-project basis?
Currently, on the joint ventures which are currently underway, on page 37, there's eight, we do have the funds management rights to those assets that we are developing. So, on a case-by-case basis, we'll look to make sure we grow the value, and with our investor at the right time, if we feel that the investment or the asset stabilize well, we'll look to realize value for both us and our investor at the same time.
I would add, and that, that's obviously where it's sort of institutional-grade product that we can bend into the funds management platform. So some of that product is product which is, for immediate sale. For example, where we've called out the Elephant Park, build-to-sell, with Daiwa House in London.
Got it. Okay, thanks for that. That's all from me.
Thank you Alex.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Lombardo for closing remarks.
Firstly, thanks for everyone attending today's call. I hope you can see that the amount of work we've put in this to really drive some significant and decisive actions, and I look forward to catching up with different stakeholders one-on-one over the coming weeks. So thank you all.
Thank you.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.