Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR)
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Apr 27, 2026, 4:10 PM AEST
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Earnings Call: H1 2024

Feb 7, 2024

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Mirvac's interim results presentation for FY 2024. Here with me today are Courtenay Smith , Richard Seddon, Scott Mosely, and Stuart Penklis. I'd like to begin by acknowledging the traditional custodians of the land on which we meet. For us, it's the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation, and I pay my respects to elders, past and present. It's been almost a year since we announced our new business structure, and it's been great to see momentum continuing across our divisions, along with efficiencies in capital and resourcing being realized. In April last year, we outlined our key strategic objectives: ensuring balance sheet flexibility, expanding our funds management, increasing our investment portfolio resilience, leveraging our development capability, and maintaining our focus on ESG and culture.

I'm pleased to say we've made excellent progress in executing on these over the past six months, and I'm extremely proud of what our team has delivered. Notably, we sold AUD 480 million of non-core assets, strengthening both our balance sheet and the quality of our investment portfolio. Subsequent to year-end, we agreed revised terms for the sale of 367 Collins Street in Melbourne. We expanded our relationship with Australian Retirement Trust, with Aspect North now settled into the Mirvac Industrial Venture. We maintained high occupancy across our investment portfolio, underpinned by a strong period of leasing activity, including the forward leasing of several major upcoming office lease expiries, and we grew our industrial exposure through the completion of Switchyard, delivering quality, recurring income to the group.

We also achieved strong leasing success at our build-to-rent asset, LIV Munro, and maintained high occupancy at LIV Indigo. We committed to acquiring an interest in the Serenitas platform, immediately increasing our exposure to the land lease sector with one of Australia's leading operators, and I'll talk more about the living sectors in a moment. We have set our long-term asset allocation targets, which Courtenay will share with you in her update. Leveraging our in-house creation capabilities continues to be a key focus, helping us to prudently manage our capital and utilize our resources more efficiently across the business. We made good leasing progress at our development projects, including at 55 Pitt Street in Sydney, where we now have heads of agreement for around 27% net lettable area.

We settled 1,131 residential lots, including first settlements at high-value apartment projects such as Green Square, NINE at Willoughby, and The Langlee, all here in Sydney. It's great to see sales and settlement activity start to improve. We restocked our residential pipeline on capital-efficient terms, positioning us well for the next cycle. We're also actively in discussions on a number of residential joint venture partnerships, and we progressed on our sustainability initiatives with the continued electrification of our assets. Our business is in a good position. We have AUD 1.5 billion of pre-sales on hand, product on the ground ready to meet increasing demand, a modern, high-quality investment portfolio, a strong focus on managing our costs, and positive momentum in our funds business.

Our financial results for the H1 were driven by higher interest rates, elevated pressures in construction, and cautious sentiment in the residential market. Our operating profit after tax of AUD 252 million represents 6.4 cents per stapled security, and we paid distributions of AUD 4.5 per stapled security, representing a payout ratio of 70%. Continued cap rate expansion impacted our investment assets with asset devaluations of AUD 396 million. This resulted in a 3% reduction in our NTA to AUD 2.56. In the current environment, our integrated model positions us well to deliver high value to our partners and security holders.

The 14 new assets we've delivered across industrial, build-to-rent, and office have created approximately AUD 1.4 billion of value and AUD 150 million of new NOI for our security holders. We now have a modern, sustainable, low CapEx, diversified investment portfolio, which has maintained high occupancy of 97% and has delivered over 200 basis points of outperformance over the past 10 years. This is further underpinned by our 50-year track record of delivering residential product for our customer with a deep forward-looking pipeline and a high level of repeat purchases. This integrated platform and capability remains a key competitive advantage.

We have a strong focus on the living sectors, where we can leverage our reputation for quality and certainty of delivery across a broad spectrum of housing typologies, including land, detached homes, terraces, mid-rise and high-rise apartments, and more recently, through our build-to-rent portfolio. This depth of capability means we're well placed to benefit from the structural tailwind supporting the broader living sector in Australia, including a growing population boosted by immigration and a chronic undersupply of housing. Our 47.5% acquisition of the Serenitas platform during the H1 further expands our customer offering to deliver quality product to over 55-year-olds at a lower price point. Alongside build to rent, we are now exposed to a growing cohort of renters amid housing affordability challenges in Australia.

While the Serenitas transaction is not typical for Mirvac, our investment allows us to fast-track our exposure to the land lease sector and gives us scale with an established and experienced operator, along with recurring income and development opportunities to further grow our exposure in a capital-light manner. We have a pathway to 100% ownership in the future. Our internal design, construction, procurement capabilities provide us with a unique advantage in pursuing our Scope one, two and three emissions targets by 2030. We have continued to progress the electrification of our assets, with two assets retrofitted to date and an ambition to roll this out across our MPT portfolio by 2030.

Our newly created all-electric Heritage Lanes office building in Brisbane received Australia's first six star Green Star rating, while our first new distribution center at Aspect in Kemps Creek is on track to be our first carbon neutral industrial asset for embodied carbon. We're also working closely with suppliers to find innovative solutions to lower our carbon footprint and deliver savings, and as well as implementing modular construction into our product design. Our strong focus on the environmental performance, good governance, and our people will ensure we continue to maintain our social license to operate into the future. I'll now hand over to Courtenay to run through our financial results in more detail.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

Thanks, Campbell, and good morning, everyone. Turning to the financial results for the H1 of FY 24. We've delivered a solid set of results over the H1, with an operating profit after tax of AUD 252 million. Our operating result comprised of a slight decline in investment EBIT of 3% to AUD 309 million, led by the impact of lost income from non-core asset disposals and reduced retail NOI from Toombul. This was offset by 2.2% like-for-like NOI growth, contribution from our co-investment stake in MWOF, and new NOI from Switchyard, which reached final practical completion during the period.

Funds EBIT, which includes funds and asset management, improved by AUD 1 million to AUD 16 million, due to a full six months contribution from our new funds on the platform across MIV, MWOF, and LIV build-to-rent, which was offset by the absence of a performance fee recorded in the H1 of 2023. Development EBIT was down AUD 8 million to AUD 86 million. Within this result, commercial and mixed-use EBIT included profit on Switchyard and 7 Spencer Street, and development fees and construction margin on our build-to-rent pipeline projects. The lower half-year result for commercial mixed use also reflects the higher profit earned from the sell down of 34 Waterloo Road in the H1 of 2023. Our residential business saw an improvement on the H1, 2023, due to increased volumes and contributions from high-value apartment settlements across Nine Green Square and The Langlee in Sydney.

Unallocated overheads were down AUD 3 million as a result of cost-saving initiatives implemented in the H1, and a timing skew in the spend to the H2. Our net financing costs increased AUD 41 million over the prior period, driven by a higher weighted average cost of debt at 5.4% this half, versus 4.5% in the H1 of 2023. A higher average debt balance in the period, and the inclusion of our net interest expense from MWOF and build to rent. Turning to our statutory result, this included the impact of revaluation loss on our investment portfolio, predominantly led by capitalization rate expansion in the office portfolio. Excuse me. Turning to the balance sheet. We had continued to adopt a disciplined approach towards capital management.

Gearing at December was within our target range of 20%-30%, at 27.2%. We expect this to remain steady over the H2, with inflows expected from non-core asset sales, progressing settlement of our AUD 1.5 billion residential pre-sales, and capital partnering initiatives on our development projects. These will be offset by outflows for the investment into Serenitas and progression on selective residential and commercial projects. An important part of our balance sheet management is our AUD 1.2 billion of non-core asset sales. During the six months, we completed approximately AUD 480 million of sales, with the settlement of 60 Margaret Street and the exchange contract on 383 La Trobe Street in Melbourne. 367 Collins Street, we had an exchange contract which was subject to capital being raised.

That contract. That condition has not been met, and we have terminated that contract. However, we have agreed terms with another party who is in due diligence, and we are targeting close and settlement toward the end of the financial year. The balance of the AUD 1.2 billion is progressing, and we will provide updates at the appropriate time. And finally, on the balance sheet, we retain our A3 , minus credit ratings from Moody's and Fitch, and hold significant headroom against key debt covenants. We have AUD 1.1 billion of liquidity, no remaining maturities in FY 24, while our average borrowing costs at 5.5% at December, which is in line with the market. Moving to portfolio management and capital allocation. We manage the business with clearly defined portfolio, within a clearly defined portfolio framework to optimize returns to security holders.

The framework is made up of four components: firstly, capital allocation, which is determined by our medium- to long-term outlook across sectors. Secondly, earnings, with a focus on maintaining higher contribution from recurring investment income. Thirdly, returns, which are set with reference to our cost of capital and adjusted for risk based on macro and sector outlooks. And finally, capital structure, including our gearing target, credit rating, and payout ratio. So focusing on capital allocation in a little more detail, we have a capital allocation strategy of greater than 70% to investment and less than 20% to development, which we believe provides balance between delivering secure, recurring income, while being able to support our value-creating development activities. Within the investment portfolio, we have set more explicit long-term targets to drive cash flow resilience, stronger growth, and maintain the right level of income diversity over time.

We will continue to tighten the focus of our office portfolio to premium CBD assets, where we see the best growth outlook, targeting a lower portfolio exposure over time of around 40%. Supported by progressing our non-core asset sales and being more selective on future investments. We are focused on increasing our exposure to both industrial and living, given favorable long-term structural tailwinds in these sectors. With industrial, we have a target to increase our weighting from 14% to around 20% over time, which we will meet through the delivery of our secured industrial pipeline. With living, which includes build to rent and land lease, we have a target to increase our weighting from 3% to around 25%.

This transition will be supported by delivering our existing build to rent development pipeline, and the completion of our Serenitas acquisition, and the subsequent growth of both platforms. Our retail exposure is expected to be around 15% over the long term, maintaining an urban focus. Moving to development, the majority of development capital continue to be allocated to our residential pipeline, with selective restocking on capital-efficient terms as opportunities arise. We will continue to utilize third-party capital where we can, to unlock additional value and accelerate releases across the residential portfolio, which we are making good progress on. Commercial and mixed-use capital will be allocated more towards living and industrial to align with our investment portfolio targets. This is illustrated in the AUD 2.8 billion of office developments canceled or deferred over the last 12 months.

We believe these long-term allocation targets and recent progress towards these goals will set the business up for a stronger performance over time. Thank you, and I'll now hand over to Richard.

Richard Seddon
CEO of Investment, Mirvac

Thank you, Courtenay, and good morning, everyone. Our high-quality investment portfolio continued to perform well over the H1, and we're making strong progress to improve cash flow resilience and upweight our exposure to the living sectors, industrial, and high-quality office. Our prime, modern, and sustainable office portfolio demonstrated strong performance, with solid NOI for the half, robust like-for-like growth of 2%, and occupancy at 95%. Following the sale of our 60 Margaret Street in Sydney, the portfolio is now 46% premium grade, a 16% improvement since 2019, with an average age of just nine years. We've had an exceptional period of leasing, which was up 47% on PCP at 36,000 square meters, with long average terms of 6.5 years, and positive leasing spreads.

We've also secured an additional 32,500 square meters under heads of agreement, which will further reduce our forward expiry profile from 11% to just 5% over the next 18 months. The office portfolio has delivered continued outperformance of benchmark returns, despite net valuations being down 4.7%. Strong leasing activity is reaffirming the important role offices play, with tenants attracted to high quality, well-located buildings. This is illustrated by vacancy for younger assets, almost half that of older assets, while the future supply outlook is restricted in our key markets. We will continue to upweight the quality of our portfolio to capitalize on this trend. Within our logistics portfolio, NOI was up 14%, benefiting from the completion of Switchyard in Auburn, with positive re-leasing spreads of 13% and robust occupancy at 99%.

Like-for-like growth was impacted by some vacancy during the period, however, will benefit from positive re-leasing spreads already secured, and the portfolio is now approximately 17% under rented. Future NOI will benefit from our AUD 2.5 billion industrial development pipeline, strategically located near the new Western Sydney Airport, expected to open in 2026, with the first building at Aspect completing in January this year. Valuations were down slightly by 2.6%, with a 50 basis point expansion to 5.1%, and this was partially offset by solid rental growth. Occupier demand for quality, well-located assets remains robust, particularly in Sydney, where vacancy remains sub 1%, the tightest in Australia, and the supply outlook is constrained. We'll continue to expand our exposure to industrial through our development pipeline.

Turning to our urban retail portfolio, which achieved positive like-for-like growth of 3.2%, supported by improved occupancy of 98%. Moving annual turnover sales growth remained positive at 3.2%, with robust leasing volumes across 38,000 square meters. Pleasingly, valuations were up 1.3%, despite a softening in cap rates by 6 basis points to 5.65%, supported by robust income growth and improved turnover rent. Following the sale of Met Centre, our CBD retail exposure is now just 3% of the portfolio. While retail sales growth is expected to slow, Mirvac's uniquely urban retail portfolio is supported by strong catchment population growth, the return of tourists and students, a more affluent consumer base with salaries 25% higher than the national average, and modest occupancy costs of 14%.

Our build-to-rent portfolio continues to perform well, with high occupancy maintained at LIV Indigo in Sydney, 10% leasing spreads, and an average downtime of just 25 days. LIV Munro in Melbourne is now 92% leased and on track for stabilization over the coming months. We have over 800 apartments under management and a seven year track record, allowing us to leverage valuable insights into our next generation of buildings. This includes 3 developments comprising of further 1,350 apartments, completing over the next 18 months, starting with LIV Aston in the H2. BTR's modest penetration in Australia, coupled with strong market fundamentals, is expected to provide significant opportunities for growth over time.

Our acquisition of the Serenitas platform, which we announced in October last year, provides us with an accelerated exposure to the highly attractive land lease sector, with a portfolio of over 6,200 sites, including over 4,300 operational sites and a development pipeline of over 1,890 sites, 98% of which are DA approved. We're excited about the organic growth opportunities in this fragmented, emerging sector, and the resilient cash flows the stabilized portfolio will generate over time, boosted by development earnings from new home sales in the development pipeline. Land lease sector fundamentals remain robust, with strong over 55's population growth, low market penetration of around 2%, CPI plus indexation rent reviews, low cash flow leakage, and no downtime. The acquisition is on track to complete this quarter and is already demonstrating strong trading momentum. I'll now hand over to Scott Mosely for an update on funds management.

Scott Mosely
CEO, Funds Management, Mirvac

Thanks, Rich, and good morning, everyone. Over the past 18 months, we have attracted over AUD 8.8 billion of new fund inflows from our capital partners, co-investing alongside them under our unique alignment model in sectors where we have deep expertise. The new corporate structure we implemented last financial year has resonated well with our existing and our potential capital partners as we expand our offering into new product types and sectors with aligned, growth-minded partners under market-leading governance. During the half, we continued to invest in our people and our systems to position us for further expansion, where we can create aligned value for our investors and our security holders.

We have AUD 16.4 billion of third-party capital under management, which reflects some softening in asset valuations and asset sales in managed vehicles, where we are focused on capital management and maintaining strong balance sheets. Over the half, we've continued to grow our recently launched vehicles, with a focus on the industrial, living, and office sectors. Our Mirvac Industrial Venture with Australian Retirement Trust expanded with the acquisition of Aspect North in Kemps Creek, and we expect to see further growth in our industrial partnerships as our AUD 2.2 billion development pipeline completes. In our living sector, we continued to develop the remainder of our secured AUD 1.8 billion BTR pipeline, topping out at LIV Aston in Melbourne, and we remain on track to deliver 2,200 apartments by calendar year 2025.

We are also assessing further BTR opportunities across our eastern states as we move towards our goal of 5,000 lots in the medium term. In office, our Mirvac Wholesale Office Fund continues to outperform over two, three, five and seven years. During the half, there was strong leasing success across the portfolio, with approximately 55,000 square meters of space, either leased or under heads of agreement, reflecting the quality and the premium locations of the portfolio. Gearing remains low at 22.6%, reflecting our focus on prudent capital management. Our partnership with Daibiru also remains on track as the development at 7 Spencer Street progresses. Institutional capital, while being disciplined and selective, continues to deploy capital for the right product with the right aligned partners, and we are progressing discussions with capital partners on 55 Pitt Street and Harbourside.

We are also seeing strong interest in the living sector, including residential, where we have a deep pipeline and the ability to deliver into an undersupplied market, and we continue to progress opportunities to expand our capital relationships in these areas. I'll now hand over to Stu to run through development.

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

Thank you, Scott, and good morning. Mirvac's integrated development model continues to be a key competitive advantage, providing diversity and resilience of earnings through the cycles, and driving efficient capital allocation and skill utilization across the business. We are renowned for our quality and our reputation as a trusted developer, independently recognized by our industry-leading five-star iCIRT rating. Our integrated model provides us with the ability to respond to the market and be selective in our deployment of capital, as demonstrated by the AUD 2.8 billion of office developments we've either sold or put on hold. Our diversified residential business has been a significant contributor of earnings over time, and we are well-positioned to capitalize on the critical undersupply of residential housing in Australia in the coming years.

We are focused on leveraging capital partnerships and securing new opportunities on capital-efficient terms to unlock embedded value across our pipeline. Our commercial and mixed-use development pipeline currently represents some AUD 11.2 billion. We continue to focus on our committed capital on sectors supported by strong market fundamentals and sites where we have a competitive advantage. Our Harbourside development is gaining traction, securing a heads of agreement for over 4,000 square meters of commercial space, and we are targeting a residential launch later this calendar year. We are also progressing our AUD 1.2 billion build-to-rent development pipeline, with three developments currently in delivery.

LIV Aston in Melbourne is expected to complete in June this year, with the completion of LIV Anura in Brisbane, a partnership project with the Queensland Government that will deliver 25% of apartments for key workers, expected to complete later this calendar year. Our 55 Pitt Street Sydney office development achieved further pre-leasing success in the period, with the 63,000 square meter building now almost 30% pre-leased. Civil works have been completed, and early structural works continue to progress. Capital partnering discussions for this project are also underway. We've seen positive momentum in our industrial development pipeline, with Switchyard in Sydney reaching final practical completion during the period. At Aspect Industrial Estate in Kemps Creek, we have completed our first warehouse, which is expected to be our first carbon neutral development, welcoming CEVA Logistics into the estate.

Continued strong customer demand in the market with very low vacancy supports the rollout of our Sydney pipeline, which includes the balance of Aspect and Elizabeth Enterprise Precinct at Badgerys Creek. These well-located projects were secured early on attractive terms, and as Richard mentioned, will significantly benefit from the completion of the new Western Sydney Airport in 2026. Moving to residential. Despite continued market headwinds, we achieved 1,131 settlements during the period, including first settlements across our apartment projects in Sydney, NINE at Willoughby, The Langlee, and The Frederick at Green Square. This positive momentum has continued in the H2, with an additional 170 settlements to date. Our MPC projects, including Smiths Lane, Woodleigh, and Olivine in Melbourne, Everleigh in Brisbane, and Henley Brook in Perth, also made a material contribution to H1 settlements.

As noted at the full year, the higher weighting towards built form settlements in the H2 led to a lower gross margin, but a higher EBIT per lot, as we continue to experience the impact of inclement weather and subcontractor insolvencies. This resulted in a lower than typical gross margin of circa 17%. We expect this to continue through the balance of the year as we trade through our apartment projects here in Sydney. While sales activity remains subdued in the H1, we continue to see strong inquiry across our projects, reflecting underlying demand and the lack of new stock. Sales have been led by upgraders and right-sizers, who are attracted to our track record, record of delivery, the quality of our product, and upfront amenity.

Charlton House and Waterfront Isle in Brisbane and Green Square in Sydney are all over 90% pre-sold, and Trielle in Yarra's Edge is now close to 40% pre-sold. We have AUD 1.5 billion of pre-sales on hand, with close to half of this anticipated to be realized through the balance of FY 24 as we settle our Sydney apartment projects. Taking advantage of market conditions, we have started to restock our residential development pipeline with around 8,400 lots secured on capital efficient terms, entering into a project delivery agreement for a new master plan community site of approximately 7,200 lots in Queensland, as well as adding another 1,200 MPC lots at Mulgoa here in Sydney, following an approval of a Mirvac-led planning proposal and rezoning.

We are actively in discussions to introduce capital partners to our projects, which will help to accelerate value creation, speed to market, and capital returns. Our deep apartment pipeline of completing and DA-approved sites is expected to be supported by the relative affordability of apartments compared to established detached housing. During the period, we had two major launches at Prince & Parade and The Albertine in Melbourne, and we expect to launch Harbourside and our next stage at Ascot Green in Brisbane later this year. Completions of residential dwellings in the coming years in Australia are expected to be 50% lower than the FY 18 peak, which, coupled with a surge in demand driven by an estimated 1.4 million new residents over the next few years, is expected to result in an acutely undersupplied market.

This is further exacerbated by low vacancy rates at below 2%, and strong rental growth at 10%. With this backdrop of strong fundamentals, supported by a development pipeline of almost 30,000 lots with a variety of product and delivery time frames, along with a loyal customer base, we are well positioned to capture demand as market conditions continue to improve. Thank you, and I'll now hand back to Campbell.

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Thanks, Stu. Subject to no material changes in market and delivery conditions, we maintain operating EPS guidance for FY 24 of AUD 0.14-AUD 0.143 per stapled security, and DPS guidance of AUD 0.105 per stapled security. Front of mind is looking to the balance of the financial year. We've still got a lot to do. Our key priorities are to achieve the remainder of our planned residential settlements targets, progress tenant pre-commitments, and secure capital partners for our 55 Pitt Street development in Sydney, and finalize the sell down of Aspect South. As you've heard before, we're continuing our discussions with capital partners in our residential business.

Combined with the other transactions, this will ensure we have headroom on our balance sheet. As for the medium-term outlook, signs that interest rates are at or near their peak level and falling inflation, position Mirvac well to capitalize on a market recovery across all of our operating segments. Our modern, sustainable investment portfolio with low capital expenditure, will continue to deliver a resilient and stable passive income stream over time, which we expect to further improve as we execute on our capital reallocation strategy. Capital efficiency remains a key focus. We will continue to sell down non-core assets and selectively lift our exposure to our preferred sectors through the conversion of our secure development pipeline. Combined with third-party capital aligned to our vision of creating world-class assets, this will help us to ensure we remain well placed to deliver value to our partners and security holders.

Thanks all for listening in. I'd now like to open the line to any questions, you may have.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please limit yourself to two questions, and you may rejoin the queue. One moment for questions. Our first question comes from Sholto Maconochie with Jefferies. You may proceed.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate, Equities Research, Jefferies

Hi, everyone. Good results. Just a couple of questions. Looks like the resi pre-sales accelerated in the Q2 quite a lot. I know there's some seasonality there, but can you sort of talk to what you're seeing in the resi market? Because I know they also improved post-balance, that number 270, where you're seeing demand and, and how you see that tracking for the rest of the year.

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Stu, do you want to take that?

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

Yeah. Sholto, thanks for the question. I, I think it's fair to say, as I foreshadowed at full year, demand is from upgraders or dominated by upgraders and right sizes. One of the challenges we probably had last year was due to the delay of some of our projects because of COVID-related issues, labor shortages and wet weather. We didn't have completed product on the ground, and what we've seen, in the last few months, in particular, as projects like Langlee and Willoughby have now got completed stock on the ground, we've seen an uptick in sales, particularly with those right sizes who are able to see, touch, and walk through the product. And being able to buy and sell their existing home in the same market is a key factor.

I think, Sholto, the other thing that we're seeing in display suites, particularly around built form, is certainty of delivery in this market. People are gravitating to Mirvac built form because of, obviously, the certainty of delivery, but also the quality. And there is certainly an element of fear of missing out, recognizing that over the next few years, supply will be, you know, a critical shortage in particularly the major cities. We think that we're well positioned over the next few years to be able to respond to that demand, as we roll out our launch program.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate, Equities Research, Jefferies

Well, just on the last one, two questions. On the, it looked like you've marked down 367 Collins Street, so down 8%, so that's down 18% of last 12 months. Is that in line with where the market is sort of pricing this for the indicative offer you've got on the table now?

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Yeah. Sholto, yeah, that's correct. So we've marked to market where we've agreed terms on the asset.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate, Equities Research, Jefferies

I'll just take one more. The capital allocation, the retail release, was there any provision release? So the retail looked quite strong.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

Yeah. There is a little bit of wash up of the ECL as we go back to a normalized position. And remember, we did flag there might be a little bit of a tale of Toombul in the retail result of this year, which we this half, which you're seeing also, but that is not there in the H2, just to remind you.

Sholto Maconochie
Head of Australia Real Estate, Equities Research, Jefferies

Okay. Thank you. Cheers.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Lauren Berry with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, good morning, guys. I just wanted to pick up on some of the comments you made about residential JVs and sell downs and realizing value. Can you just give us a bit more color on what you know, projects or types of sites, et cetera, you would look to sell down? And realizing value, does that imply that there would be profit recognition on this, and would anything be included in your guidance for FY2 4? Thank you.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

Yeah, thanks, Lauren. I think it's something we've been talking about before these results, actually, to bring capital into residential, the residential business, and we've done it before. You saw us do that with Smiths Lane about 18 months ago. Our focus is on making sure that the residential business is operating in a capital efficient way. And if you look at the capital deployed into resi at the moment, we're over AUD 2 billion. So we're looking to partner into some of those projects and future projects to release some of that capital, but also efficiency of returns. And Stu did talk about releasing value. Essentially, you know, depending on the IRRs that those partners come in on and where those projects are trading, we would expect that they will release value earlier.

But we'll work through that. It's probably a bit too early in the process that we've got or the processes and the discussions we've got running, to, to give you any more color than that. But I guess today we're just flagging that discussions are progressing and we're, and we're making good progress, actually, and there's some good interest in there.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Would it be more, around the apartment pipeline or the MPC?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

We've had conversations on both. At the moment, we're probably more focused on MPC, but, you know, I would also, you know, count Harbourside in some of that. You know, Harbourside's got significant value in the residential in there, and we flagged previously , we're talking to capital partners or thinking about the capital partnerings structure and strategy on that project. So it's across all of the products, but, timing will depend on the launch of those products and where they're up to at any point.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. And then my other question is around Kemps Creek. Looks like the, you know, first completion date has slipped from FY 26 to FY 28. Can you just talk about, you know, what the progress is on that project? What's happening there, please?

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

Sorry, you go, Richard.

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Yes.

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

I think you're referring to Badgerys Creek, Lauren, is that correct?

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Oh, Badgerys Creek. Yeah, sorry.

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

Yeah.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

I lost the enterprise.

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

So as you know, we were one of the first movers in that precinct with Kemps Creek. That project is progressing well. First completion of CEVA happened a few weeks ago, and good inquiry and a number of buildings under construction on Aspect. We will then roll into Badgerys Creek. Badgerys Creek, probably in terms of the movement that you've seen in the program, has been largely driven by planning. But we are now making good traction there. But the move in timing, largely driven by planning rather than any demand softening. We're still seeing very good demand in that precinct.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

So for industrial completions, it looks like, you know, you're, you're probably gonna have a hole between FY24 and FY28 now. Is that correct?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

Well, I'm not sure we call it a hole. I think we're working through the staging of those projects. We've got Aspect South, what we're focused on the H2 of the year, and then, the completion of Badgerys has pushed out, but there's a staging of parts of that before you get to the final completion. So there's probably just something to think about in the timing.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Ben Brayshaw with Barrenjoey. You may proceed.

Ben Brayshaw
Founding Principal and Head of REITs, Barrenjoey

Yeah, hi, good morning. I was wondering if you could just expand a bit on the target return on invested capital for development, and the portfolio management framework you talked about. Courtenay, I think you, you set out some targets for capital allocation. So could you just expand a bit on how you're thinking about where you would like the return on invested capital for development to be going forward?

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Yeah, Ben, I might take that. So obviously, you're aware that we're developing across a series of activities from build to rent, build form and resi, the whole way through to office, industrial, and some retail. All of those have got slightly different hurdles that we look to. All of those based on different macroeconomic drivers, thematic drivers, and risk. And so we're probably not gonna specify exactly what they sit on each, but obviously, the clear target here is to ensure that we're constantly delivering ROIC over our weighted average cost of capital. And that's particularly important in an environment where the investment side of the business has not been achieving that as a result of revaluation losses.

So, it's very, very front of mind, and that's why we're very, very keen to ensure that our message around balance sheet strength is important and well heard, because we aren't gonna start development activities that aren't meeting our hurdle objectives.

Ben Brayshaw
Founding Principal and Head of REITs, Barrenjoey

Okay, so just firstly, sorry, my follow-up question is just around residential settlements for FY 24. I think you were talking at August of circa 2.5-3,000. Is that still your, your expectation?

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Yeah, look, I'll take that. So the first thing maybe to think about, Stu, in his speech, mentioned the 1,131 settlements in the H1, and then another 177 that have happened in the month of January. Remember that we've got pre-sales of AUD 1.5 billion, and roughly half of that is rolling off this year, so that's gonna go straight to the settlement numbers. Also remember that we've got some conditional sales, which are also gonna roll off this year. And so we're comfortable with our guidance at this stage, and but we know that we've still got a bit to do in terms of selling some stock, but we're comfortable with our guidance.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

And maybe, Campbell, could I just add, Ben, that guidance we'd given you is between 2.5-3 on lot numbers. We probably expect to be at the lower or the low end of that range now. That is probably something important just to flag. And that's just to help, sorry, the color on that is Charlton House, which is in Brisbane, has slipped from the current year into next year, and the sales rates, which you will have seen in the H1 on the MPC projects, are just a little bit behind. So that's why we're still sitting within the range. We're just at the low end of it.

Ben Brayshaw
Founding Principal and Head of REITs, Barrenjoey

Perfect. Thanks for your time.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from David Pobucky with Macquarie Group. You may proceed.

David Pobucky
Head of Real Estate Australia, Macquarie Group

Hi, good morning, all. Hope you're well, and thanks for taking my questions. Just the first one on the pre-commit at 55 Pitt Street, if I may. I think you previously spoke to 30%-60% before hitting go. When do you hit go? I mean, in this office environment, would you need to be, you know, at the higher end of that range, or if you could just please provide a bit more color there. Thank you.

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Thanks. Thanks, David. Yeah, look, we're working through that now. And obviously, capital partnering is an important part of our conversation. We're advanced in discussions with a number of parties at this point. That's an important element of the decision we need to make. I think just going back to what's happening in office markets in Australia, I think it's absolutely clear now that there is a genuine bifurcation of what's happening by quality of real estate and by location, and 55 Pitt Street ticks all of those boxes. And I think the other thing we need to remind ourselves of is that the supply outlook going forward is certainly not gonna be as previously anticipated. Softening cap rates, increased cost to build, and growing cost of incentives have really hurt probably a lot of market-based feasibilities.

Now we're looking at that market and the supply outlook probably in a more favorable lens than we have in the past. All of those things are things that we're tackling with. I probably can't give you a definitive answer yet, but over the course of the next quarter, we'll be able to talk to that.

David Pobucky
Head of Real Estate Australia, Macquarie Group

Thank you. The second one, just on the balance sheet and gearing. A bit higher than expected in the H1. Maybe if you can just touch on the key drivers there. Resi settlements will be part of that, I suspect, and maybe on a longer term basis, how do you think about gearing post the divestments, given your capital commitments, please?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

Yeah. Thanks, David. I think I flagged previously in this half , we'd be a little higher. We're a little higher because of the asset sale deferrals and where we've ended up with resi. I'm also really guiding that we'll stay about where we are through to the full year. We really positively got AUD 1.5 billion of residential pre-sales. 47% of that rolls off in the H2. We're making good progress on the balance of the asset sales. And then we've talked about capital partnering on key initiatives with across all of the different asset classes in development. We do have some commitments, so the Serenitas acquisition, we do. That settles.

We expect that to settle in the Q1 of this year, and then we'll move forward with also development projects. So with those ins and outs, we expect to be around where we are, actually, and we've also making sure we're thoughtful about where asset values go, even in the next six months. And then in the long term, you know, our objective is to, to make sure the balance sheet is strong. You know, we'd, we'd like to get gearing at the mid to the low end of the range, but it does depend on commitments, and I think we've got a good, strong debt book. We've got good access to markets. Our credit rating's strong, and so using debt to help us, move the...

Release capital and move the business forward, I think is important, but our target longer term is within the range that we set, but to the midpoint, to the low end, I would say.

David Pobucky
Head of Real Estate Australia, Macquarie Group

Okay, thank you. Good luck for the remainder of the year.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Solomon Zhang with JP Morgan. You may proceed. Your line is now open, Solomon Zhang.

Richard Jones
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Sorry, can you hear me? It's Richard. Sorry.

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

Hi, Richard. Yeah, we can hear you.

Richard Jones
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Yeah, sorry. There's a big change in the capital allocation mix, obviously longer term, out of office into living. Yet you've, you've got a significant near-term office pipeline. Just, you know, balance sheet looks a little constrained. So how, I mean, how does, how does that play out from a living perspective? I assume you're, you're not looking at, at more bolt-ons.

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

No. So look, it's, so this is a long-term objective. And you know, this is not a sign that we're anti-office by any means. We're certainly not. We, we think that premium grade office continues to be a really strong performing sub-sector of that asset class. That's an area that we really wanna focus on. I think, as Courtenay mentioned in her speech, we've turned off a lot of other office developments. The sale of 383 La Trobe Street is a classic example of us doing that. So our focus really, still, we still like office. The areas we want to grow, this is all about cashflow resilience sitting inside our investment portfolio and cash leakage, whether it be CapEx, whether it be development CapEx, whether it be tenant incentives.

We want to keep allocating our balance sheet capital into areas which are less exposed to those risks, so that we've got a more resilient income stream in the future. So that's the long-term goal. We're not doing this tomorrow. It's gonna take time, because we're very aware of maintaining our income profile on the way through. Courtenay's been very clear in our objectives around the split in our earnings between passive and active, so this isn't something we're gonna do in a hurry. But also remember that the payout ratio that we have in the group is about retaining enough capital each year to keep investing over time in those areas that are focus areas for us, and those focus areas for us are in the living sectors and industrial.

Richard Jones
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Thanks, Campbell. Just a second question. Just in terms of guidance, t he apartment sales at Willoughby and Langlee, you're saying they're picking up, but sales rates are still low. I would imagine those projects come in below expectations for settlements this year, plus you're calling out lower MPC likely settlements. Are you expecting a bigger than AUD 120 million profit out of C&I that you kind of called out at the full year result in FY 23 to offset that?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

Richard, I think it's a bit early to sort of call sales rates on these projects. As Stu said, you know, we're, we're focused—we were focused on having stock on the ground, stability in rates, and we see momentum come back. And what we've seen, I guess, in January, gives us good hope for that, and we're forecasting or expecting settlements to come in at the low end of the range that we talked about. In terms—we're not, we're not—there's a lot to go. There's a lot to do in commercial mixed use to deliver the earnings we've guided to. We're still focused on 55 Pitt Street and Aspect South. There is no change to that, so no change in guidance.

We probably expect a little bit of better performance out of the investment line at this stage, just given asset delays in asset disposals. And given the deferral of the residential lots, some of them, we also have less release of COGS into the interest line, so we do expect a little bit better on the interest line from what the makeup that we would have been talking about at August. But there's always lots that go into where we get to guidance. There's a lot that goes on in the business. We've got a diversified business, but there's no material movements in all of that that you should be thinking about.

Richard Jones
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Okay. Thanks, Courtenay.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from James Druce with CLSA. You may proceed.

James Druce
Head of Australian Real Estate Research, CLSA

Yeah. Hi, good morning. I just wanted to get the right message on the residential margin. H1, it's called out at 17%, and I think the guidance for the H2 is around 17% as well, which seems to be a bit below the low end of 18%-22%, I think you guys were guiding to. I'm just curious to see how— Is that specific to just a couple of projects, and then you see that margin, you know, rebounding back to normal ranges in future years? Or how do we think about the margin in the portfolio at the moment?

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Yeah, look, I think that we're still very clear that the through cycle margin will remain 18%-22%. The 17% in the half and the expected 17% in the H2 is a result of what I flagged at full year, was the impact of delays to projects, the impact of labor shortages, weather, weather impacts and insolvencies. That's what's been the drag on that, on that gross margin, and it's largely a result of those impacts. But also, as we've said, we've got a higher proportion of built form contribution this financial year.

James Druce
Head of Australian Real Estate Research, CLSA

Well, that's clear. Thank you. And just on the management and admin costs, I was just looking at the savings versus the PCP, if you gross everything up. It looks like you've eked out sort of AUD 7 million worth of savings, which is reasonably significant. I might, I may have missed something. Is there anything to call out there?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

No, you haven't missed anything. The costs in the H1 of this year relative to last is better. As I said when I spoke, there is some... We've been very focused on costs in this environment, and there is some savings that are included in that H1. But I'd just call out some skew on timing of some spend, which means the H2 will be slightly higher. We're not flagging any material change in that cost line. You know, we're still focused on costs, and you know, if the H2 has impacts to it, we'll flag that, but at the moment, the guidance for the full year is largely in line with what we gave you before. But the message is that we're focused on costs, and if a little bit more comes out, then it's fine, but it's not material.

James Druce
Head of Australian Real Estate Research, CLSA

Okay. So then, so the full year number is going to be similar to, to last year's?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

Yeah, largely. Yeah.

James Druce
Head of Australian Real Estate Research, CLSA

Okay.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

It might be a little bit inside that, but it's, we've got another six months of the year to go.

James Druce
Head of Australian Real Estate Research, CLSA

Okay. Then one more, if I may. And just on the retail portfolio, if you look at the H2 of last year, it was AUD 79 million, and then the H1 this year is AUD 80 million. I think you called out the ECL and a bit of a tail from Toombul. What were those numbers? Because I thought Toombul was going to be a fairly significant hold with good.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

I won't talk to the specific numbers, but we said there was around 3 months-ish. I actually might not have even said that number, of Toombul that we would have into this half, and then some wash up of costs and bits and pieces in relation to closing out the center. And then the other thing I'd flag is ECL. So through COVID, we held largely 100% coverage on the ECL on aged debts, and given we're moving into a more normalized market, the retail portfolio, absent the CBD asset remaining, is performing well. We've gone back to our normal approach on ECL, which has meant we've cleaned up the ECL on the balance sheet, which is coming out in this H1, which is why, you know, like for like, you're seeing it. That's right.

But in the H2, those things will come off. So do expect retail to come off in the H2.

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Occupancy's improved.

James Druce
Head of Australian Real Estate Research, CLSA

Right.

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Occupancy's also improved over the half, so it's a wash of all those things. The ECL isn't significant, though, just to be clear.

James Druce
Head of Australian Real Estate Research, CLSA

Okay, so like what, less than AUD 1 million or something for the ECL?

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Well, I think it's AUD 2 million.

James Druce
Head of Australian Real Estate Research, CLSA

Okay. All right, that's it for me. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Tom Bodor with UBS. You may proceed.

Tom Bodor
Director, Equities Research Analyst, Real Estate, UBS

Good morning, Campbell and team. I just was interested in your office line. I think there were a few one-offs in the retail line, but I was interested to understand if there was anything abnormal there in terms of larger than usual lease surrender payments or make [calls] or any other one-offs in that line.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

I don't think there's anything-

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

No.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

Significant to call out, Tom, particularly. Nothing material.

Tom Bodor
Director, Equities Research Analyst, Real Estate, UBS

Okay. Well, that's great. Thank you. And then also just wanted to sort of talk through, what you're seeing on the BTR side, just around leasing, sort of the trajectory of leasing, but also on the LIV Indigo asset, where reletting spreads, retention rates are and where are rents relative to these those?

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Do you want to take that, Richard, or are you happy for me to take it?

Richard Seddon
CEO of Investment, Mirvac

Yeah, happy, happy for you to take that.

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Yeah, look, we've, we've had a pretty successful two or three months. I think you'll recall from the quarterly update, at the end of the Q1, we still had a bit of work to do on leasing at LIV Munro. You'll see now that we're approaching 92%, and in fact, I'd, I'd go as far as saying that, that by the end of next week we're going to be higher again. So there's, there's huge activity on that front. Probably the other number that's been more interesting, probably from a, from a LIV Indigo perspective, is just the downtime between tenants mixing in and out of the asset. That's gone from sort of 25 days down to about 15 over the last quarter. So we're certainly seeing the tightness of residential rental markets.

Those dynamics are playing into some of the results we're now seeing at LIV Indigo as well. Rent growth is strong as you heard in Richard's response or his speech.

Tom Bodor
Director, Equities Research Analyst, Real Estate, UBS

Yeah, that's great. Thank you. And then just on that one, the retention rates, just at Indigo, where are they falling?

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Oh, look, I don't know if we really follow it. You know, there's such a... Retention rates are important, but it's the downtime, which is probably more important, because people do mix in and out of, of their commitments, depending on their ability to meet their rental obligations. I think the key number that we tend to focus on is the downtime between a tenants exiting and entering. And the fact that that's getting down to as, as tight as 15 days at the moment is a really strong indication of the strength of the rental markets in residential in Australia.

Tom Bodor
Director, Equities Research Analyst, Real Estate, UBS

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Alexander Prineas with Morningstar. You may proceed.

Alexander Prineas
Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Thank you. Thanks for the presentation. Just on the, the AUD 1.5 billion of resi pre-sales that you've got on hand, are you able to quantify, to any degree, how much of that is due to settle in FY 25, either in a dollar value or, or perhaps number of settlements or any way that you can quantify that?

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Well, look, we can certainly quantify what's rolling off this year, which Courtenay and also Stu have commented on. It's sort of 46%-47%. Can we come back to you on that?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

No, we can pass the mic.

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

You've got it? Courtenay's got it.

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

Yeah, I can provide color to that.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac

You go, Stu. We've got-

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

So, so think of the 1.5, it's 45% rolling off in 2024, and it's around 30% rolling off in 2025.

Alexander Prineas
Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Okay, thanks. And then just in terms of project mix, you know, you've-- there's been a number of comments around, you know, buyers tending to prefer a sort of near complete product before kind of signing on the dotted line, so to speak. Does that, yeah. Does that sort of... Would it be reasonable to think that there could be a bit of a dip in FY25 settlements, but based on, you know, what you've got on hand and the mix of projects coming through? Or is there still a decent amount of projects getting near to completion in FY25 that, you know, assuming sales sort of track with the completions of the projects?

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

Yeah, look, I-

Alexander Prineas
Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Yeah, I guess the question is, what sort of number of projects could be completing in FY25 to boost settlement numbers around then?

Stuart Penklis
CEO, Development, Mirvac

Obviously, we can't provide guidance for 25, but I think what's relevant is to look at. Obviously, we'll have completing stock that will be completing this financial year and into next year in terms of apartments, and the roll-off of those sales into 25. But importantly, I think look at also the MPC portfolio, and not only just the land, but more so the built form in the MPC portfolio, which we're well positioned to be able to respond to market and market demand.

And we'll, you know, as you saw during the COVID period, where we were very quick to respond to an increase in first home buyer demand, the portfolio is well positioned to be able to respond to increasing demand from upgraders, particularly in that middle ring, built form, attached housing, where there is a chronic undersupply, and we believe that chronic undersupply, it will be difficult for the market to fill that gap in the near term. And as I mentioned in my speech, we have a number of sites that are DA approved, ready to go, that we will be able to respond to that demand in the next 12-18 months.

Alexander Prineas
Equity Analyst, Morningstar

Okay, thanks for that. That's it for me. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Campbell Hanan for any closing remarks.

Campbell Hanan
Group CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac

Great. Well, look, thank you, everyone, for listening in. Certainly, we hope to get the opportunity to meet up with all of you over the course of the next couple of weeks. But thanks for listening in, and we'll look forward to taking some detailed questions over the next couple of days. Thank you.

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