Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR)
Australia flag Australia · Delayed Price · Currency is AUD
1.705
-0.015 (-0.87%)
Apr 28, 2026, 10:09 AM AEST
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: H2 2022

Aug 11, 2022

Operator

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I'd now like to hand the conference over to Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, CEO and Managing Director. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Good morning, and welcome to our FY 22 results presentation. We are very happy to be back in 200 George Street together hosting this webcast. With me today are Courtenay Smith, Brett Draffen, Campbell Hanan, and Stuart Penklis. We'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land on which we meet. For us, that's the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation, and I pay my respects to elders, past and present. We do have a lot to get through this morning, so let's get started. As you know, 2022 marks Mirvac's fiftieth anniversary.

Mirvac is an extremely resilient business with a highly engaged workforce, a robust balance sheet, a modern, sustainable, low CapEx portfolio, a track record of investment outperformance through cycles, the largest pipeline in our history, agility around residential cycles, and most importantly, 50 years of experience in asset creation with the proven in-house skills to add value to our assets and those of our third-party investors. We continue to execute to meet our goals and position Mirvac for growth in long-term value creation. We have an enviable track record over the last 10 years in navigating cycles, and we remain confident that we can navigate this cycle as well. The resilience of Mirvac is demonstrated by the strong operating results we achieved in FY 2022.

Operating profit was up 8%, operating cash flow up 41%, NTA up 4%, and gearing is at the low end of our range. These strong operating results were achieved against a very challenging macroeconomic backdrop with ongoing COVID impacts, rising interest rates, the highest rate of annual inflation in 21 years, labor shortages, supply chain disruption, wild weather, and significant market volatility, much of which we expect to continue into FY 2023. 5 key pillars are important to enable us to create value for all our stakeholders to execute our urban strategy and fulfill our purpose to reimagine urban life as a leading creator and curator of extraordinary urban places. You will increasingly see us report under these pillars place, performance, people, partners, and planet. Each are important.

We aspire not only to deliver financial performance, but also to improve people's urban lives, to provide Mirvac's people with a great place to work, to be a trusted partner, and to leave the world a better place than when we found it. We are very proud of our investment portfolio track record of outperforming the Australian benchmark consistently over a 15-year period, and it is our integrated model that delivers this performance. Our asset creation capability delivers development EBIT, NTA uplift, asset and funds management income, and importantly, new recurring high-quality income. This integrated model has been in full swing in FY 2022. Let me call out just a few highlights. Released over 100,000 square meters across the portfolio. We divested AUD 120 million of assets at a significant premium to book.

We completed AUD 1.3 billion of new commercial and mixed-use development ahead of initial feasibility. Our total assets under management grew to AUD 26 billion. In our residential business, we settled 2,523 lots, and we're delighted with 2,898 exchanges, including 6 successful apartment launches with a very high level of repeat Mirvac customers. We achieved net positive carbon scope one and two, nine years ahead of our target. It's more important than ever to optimize our portfolio to focus on creating through development and curating through ownership a modern, low CapEx, highly sustainable and technology-rich portfolio, one which is best suited for the needs of tenants and capital. Following FY 2022's divestments in FY 2023, we have a AUD 1.3 billion asset sales program along the same theme.

This is also designed to enable us to keep the balance sheet in a position whereby we can take advantage of opportunities that we believe the challenging macro conditions will provide into the future. Looking further into the future, we have a clear runway for growth with AUD 1.6 billion of residential presales secured, up from AUD 1.2 billion, and the largest and most diverse secured development pipeline in our fifty-year history at AUD 30 billion. In July, we were very honored to secure the management of the high-quality AUD 7.7 billion AMP Capital Wholesale Office Fund through a vote of unit holders. The fund is expected to transition by October and will increase our external assets under management by 75% to AUD 17.9 billion.

Working with the AWOF investors over the last 18 months, we've put in place a market-leading governance and management structure to drive investment performance for investors into the future. We continue to explore further capital partnership opportunities in our thriving industrial and BTR portfolios. There is a further AUD 5 billion of future organic external AUM growth potential from our secured development pipeline. Underpinning everything that we do is our high conviction that culture, safety, and ESG leadership are not only the right things to do, but also critical competitive advantages. I've already mentioned net positive scope 1 and 2, and we're now focused on the very difficult scope 3, as well as water and waste, where we have very clear plans that set out how we will achieve our goals. I'd like to call out just a few other highlights.

After many years of work around diversity inclusion, we were delighted to be ranked 1 in the world for gender equality by Equileap, and we're proud to have had a 0 like-for-like pay gap every year since 2015. We were also ranked 1 in best places to work in the construction, property and transport sector by the AFR. In a highly competitive labor market, we retain 96% of our key talent and 93% of people are proud to work at Mirvac. We released our second Reconciliation Action Plan and our second Modern Slavery report. There's so much more and not much time, so as always, if you would like more time to explore with us what we're doing around ESG and what we're learning, we're very happy to share. Thank you, and I'll now hand over to Courtenay to discuss the financial results.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

Thanks, Sue, and good morning, everyone. Today, we deliver another strong set of financial results. These results are a testament to the quality of our investment portfolio and our development projects and the dedication of our people. At the start of the year, we issued guidance for earnings of at least AUD 0.15, distribution of AUD 0.102 per security, and residential lots of 2,500. We have delivered on all of these targets with operating profit after tax of AUD 596 million, representing an 8% growth on the prior year. Statutory profit of AUD 906 million, representing a 1% increase, and operating cash flow of AUD 896 million, up 41% on the prior year. Within the result, the investment NOI was flat, but comprised a number of movements.

There were positive contributions to income, with 1.5% like-for-like growth driven by office and industrial. New income from our development completions, including the Locomotive Workshop and a full year contribution from 477 Collins Street and South Eveleigh. Also an improved COVID impact compared to the prior year. However, these were offset by reduced income from asset disposals, including 340 Adelaide Street, Cherrybrook Village, and Tramsheds, and assets entering into development, including 55 Pitt Street, Harbourside, and 34 Waterloo Road. These assets are part of the next generation of commercial and mixed-use developments. Growth in assets and funds under management, EBIT, was driven by higher investment management and transaction fees, partly offset by lower leasing fees. Our commercial and mixed-use business delivered EBIT of AUD 90 million, an increase of AUD 57 million on the prior year.

This comprised profit contributions from the Locomotive Workshop and 80 Ann Street. Turning to residential, EBIT for the year was AUD 195 million, representing 16% growth on the prior period. The result included the delivery of 2,523 settlements and profit from the sell down of 50% of the Smiths Lane project in Melbourne. The sell down was to Supalai, a Thai-listed property developer, and aligns with our objective of capital partnering and improving capital efficiency. Group unallocated overheads increased by AUD 9 million. This was driven by increases in insurance costs and investment in technology. Net financing costs reduced by AUD 9 million, and as we benefited from lower floating rates for the majority of the year. This reduced our full year weighted average cost of debt to 3.4% from 3.8% in the prior year.

We booked development revaluation gains of AUD 70 million relating to balance sheet interests held in Locomotive Workshop and 80 Ann Street. We achieved a AUD 305 million uplift across our investment properties, predominantly driven by increases across the industrial and office portfolios. This movement includes a AUD 216 million writedown at Toombul Shopping Centre. Finally, AFFO was 22% higher than the prior year, mainly driven by higher operating earnings and lower maintenance CapEx. Turning to collections and COVID impacts. Cash collections across the investment portfolio continued a steady improvement through FY 2022. Overall, we achieved a cash collection rate of 97%. There were strong collections across office and industrial portfolios, while CBD retail assets remain challenged.

Our aged arrears balance was AUD 17 million, reduced to AUD 17 million, and mainly is comprised of retail tenants, but is still fully provided for. The full year impact because of COVID was AUD 12 million, with the AUD 25 million incurred in the first half offset by receipt of AUD 13 million in land tax rebates in the second half. No additional ECL provisions were taken up in the second half. Faced with rising cost of debt and continued volatility in capital markets, we believe that maintaining a prudent approach to capital management is critical to providing options to navigate the challenging times ahead and provide the flexibility to capitalize on growth opportunities as they emerge.

With the exception of Allendale Square, which is still under negotiation, we have successfully executed on our asset disposal program this year, further strengthening our balance sheet, resulting in year-end gearing of 21.3% at the lower end of our 20%-30% target range, and liquidity of AUD 1.4 billion, comprised of cash and undrawn facilities. With hedging at 55%, modest gearing, limited maturities over the next two years, we believe our exposure to rising market rates is minimized. We maintained our A3 and A- credit ratings from Moody's and Fitch Ratings with a stable outlook, ensuring we continue to have diversified debt sources at competitive pricing. Overall, with a strong balance sheet and access to capital, we believe we are well-positioned financially to pursue the next phase of growth in generating the next generation of assets.

With that, I'll hand over to Brett to provide an update on capital allocation in the commercial mixed-use business.

Brett Draffen
CIO, Mirvac

Thanks, Courtenay, and good morning. Throughout FY 2022, we continued to deliver on our strategy by leveraging the strength of our integrated model to prioritize the creation of investment-graded assets over that of on-market acquisition. We have a strong forward pipeline of quality development opportunities across all our portfolios, and we have made good progress on our development completions. Equally, we've continued to cycle out of older style or non-aligned assets across our portfolios. With the successful settlement of the Travelodge Hotel portfolio, Tramsheds and Quay West car park assets in the second half, at very compelling premiums to book value. We maintained our relentless focus on improving portfolio quality with recent completions such as 80 Ann Street in Brisbane, and excellent progress in our industrial and build-to-rent projects.

Meaning our portfolio metrics continue to improve around a thematic of modern, low CapEx, technology-enabled assets that are fit for purpose for the changing needs of our customers. This focus will see further strategic divestments in FY 2023, with AUD 1.3 billion of assets on market or pre-market, and a busy year for further capital partnering initiatives in BTR office, and also the potential for an office fund, given the development status at Switchyard in Auburn and Aspect Kemps Creek. Of course, all on the back of the successful AWOF transaction. Asset pricing and divergence in implied cap rates between the listed and the direct markets is certainly a hot topic at the moment. Our view remains that older style secondary assets will underperform in this environment.

However, prime quality modern assets will be less impacted given the continued weight of capital demand, sector rental growth prospects, and scarcity of quality opportunities. This is clearly aligned with our capital allocation and asset creation strategies. We believe there's sufficient demand to support our divestment plans in FY 2023, and the opportunity for third-party capital to partner with our balance sheet remains compelling given the quality of the assets in our pipelines and the capacity of our platforms. Disciplined deployment of capital remains a consistent theme, with limited restocking in FY 2022, given pricing and cost trends, with active capital at 12% and no change in our longer-range 8%-20%/80% active, passive targets.

The flywheel effect of our asset creation model has created some AUD 160 million in value in FY 2022, and a further AUD 1.3 billion over the last nine years. With a 28% average return on cost for those completed projects, well above our benchmark hurdles and clearly demonstrating our track record for asset creation. Development completions have created AUD 5.4 billion in new assets, producing an additional AUD 120 million in recurring income, plus providing a platform for a 20% CAGR increase in our funds under management, whilst also continuing to improve the quality of our passive portfolios. Cost inflation and material and labor shortages have intensified across the industry over the year, and we expect to remain elevated in the near term.

In this environment, our development experience, built over many years, over many cycles, and the true integrated nature of our model, becomes increasingly valuable and a key differentiator. Our model ensures that our key skill sets in the life cycle of a project are in-house, which offers maximum adaptability to market opportunities and sound controls over construction cost, supply chain, and other risks. The combination of this integrated model, together with our diversified sector skill sets, means that we are better placed than most to manage cost and program pressures, generally within our feasibility tolerances, while still delivering on our quality, financial, and ESG outcomes. Our commercial and mixed-use pipeline now represents. Oh, sorry. Gone to the wrong slide here. Oh. Sorry. My iPad's just failed.

The recent completion of Heritage Lanes at Ann Street in Brisbane is a great demonstration of the value creation capability of our integrated model. This premium office tower has raised the bar for office development, targeting six-star Green Star, utilizing low carbon construction methods and incorporating next-generation smart technologies. In a challenging construction environment, we delivered early occupation for our anchor tenant, Suncorp, six months prior to completion, with the building now 98% leased and a 9.4-year WALE. Pleasingly, this development also delivered an 18% return on cost and AUD 131 million of development value exceeding our benchmarks. Our commercial and mixed-use pipeline now represents some AUD 12.4 billion. While we maintain an overweight exposure to core CBD and fringe office. We continue to accelerate production in our industrial and BTR pipelines, supported by strong leasing markets.

Demolition and civil works remain on track at 55 Pitt Street, and a decision on the timing on the commencement of the main tower will be made early in the next calendar year. Our mixed-use project, Harbourside, has issued vacant possession notices, and demolition is planned to commence at the start of the calendar year also. Our first BTR development in Melbourne, LIV Munro, is nearing construction completion, and we have started works at LIV Aston and LIV Anura. Across our industrial pipeline, we've commenced at Switchyard and also recently at Aspect, both with strong levels of pre-leasing. The ongoing rollout of our committed projects, together with the near-term commencements of our in our industrial mixed-use and BTR projects, provide a strong line of sight in terms of earnings recognition and organic growth in our third-party capital mandates.

Within our office pipeline, the majority of the development approvals have now been secured, and improving leasing demand will be the main driver for the timing of the next round of commencements. We have a large secured pipeline with the potential to create over AUD 250 million per annum of future NOI, AUD 1.8 billion of development value, and AUD 5 billion of organic AUM, further advancing our third-party capital strategies while continuing to prove our own portfolio metrics. I'll now hand to Campbell to discuss the integrated portfolio, investment portfolio.

Campbell Hanan
Head of Integrated Investment Portfolio, Mirvac Group

Thanks, Brett, and good morning. IOP's had an active 12 months, and the team has delivered some solid results during the period. Pleasingly, the earnings impact from asset sales and assets transitioning to development has been offset by like-for-like NOI growth, NOI contribution from new developments, significant improvement in cash collection, and favorable COVID impact in the second half. We continue to execute our portfolio strategy to increase our asset allocation to industrial, build-to-rent, and new office developments by disposing of smaller convenience shopping centers and older office assets. Our asset sales and development completions have significantly improved the quality of our investment portfolio across all asset classes. The quality of our portfolio also ensures that we are benefiting from the current bifurcation of tenants and capital demand for modern, sustainable real estate.

As you've heard from Brett, last quarter has seen the completion of our latest premium grade asset, Heritage Lanes, at 80 Ann Street in Brisbane. We've delivered 12 new office developments to the portfolio over the last 8 years, reducing the average age of the portfolio to below 10 years for the first time. As you can see from the charts on the right, prime grade assets continue to outperform for both the financial and tenant demand perspective. It's now clear from the data the flight to high quality, sustainable, and digitally enabled office space is gathering pace, and with the portfolio now 99% exposed to prime grade, we believe we are well placed to weather the current market challenges.

We continue to enjoy low maintenance CapEx and anticipate incentives will remain low over the next 12 months, given the portfolio is only exposed to 5% lease expiry by income in FY 2023. Other highlights for the year include 55% of the portfolio was externally valued, delivering net gains of AUD 224 million, up 2.9%. Occupancy has improved to 95.7% and remains well above the markets we trade in. Cash collection has improved to 99%. Leasing activity continues to improve with 42,800 square meters of deals completed at positive leasing spreads of 2.8%. The portfolio delivered like-for-like growth of 1.9%, which is particularly pleasing in the current environment.

Turning to the industrial business, market conditions remain robust for our 100% strategically located Sydney portfolio, with tight market vacancy below 1%, strong market rental growth, and rising land values. NOI was relatively flat at AUD 55 million, with the 3.3% of like-for-like NOI growth offset by the reclassification of 34 Waterloo Road into the development pipeline. Occupancy remains at 100% and WALE at 6.7 years. 63% of the portfolio was revalued during the year, delivering gains of AUD 207 million, up 14%. Capital demand for quality industrial asset remains strong. Our development sites have been secured at attractive points in the cycle, as illustrated on the chart on the right, and much of our AUD 2.5 billion pipeline is now being activated into strong leasing conditions.

Switchyard Auburn is now 58% committed, is under construction, and due for completion mid-2023. Aspect at Kemps Creek is now 48% committed, commenced construction, and due for completion in the first half of FY 2024. Our retail business has rebounded strongly in the last six months. Cash collection improved significantly to 91%. Leasing deal activity was 76% higher in the second half, and valuation growth, stripping out the impact of the devastating flood at Toombul, was up 3.3%.

Talking to some of the detail, NOI was up strongly on the first half, finishing the year at AUD 153 million, driven by improved cash collection, offset by the lost income following the disposal of Cherrybrook Village and Tram sheds. We've experienced strong improvement in leasing activity with 348 leasing deals completed across 52,200 square meters. We've achieved positive like-for-like rental growth of 0.2% for the first time since the impact of COVID. Total monthly sales in June exceeded pre-COVID levels for the majority of centers, with the exception of our CBD assets at Met Centre and Greenwood Plaza.

As you are aware, Toombul Shopping Center in Brisbane was severely damaged by floods in February, and we made the very difficult decision not to reinstate the center as is, given the catastrophic damage and the risk of future flooding. We've reported a significant revaluation loss of AUD 216 million on the asset, reflecting its land value. Over the next six months, we will continue to work with our local community and stakeholders to design a flood-resilient development for this iconic site. Finally, turning to build-to-rent. We continue to make good progress in this growing asset class, and the underlying fundamentals across the sector remain compelling. As vacancy rates for rental stock continue to fall, we are seeing a strong recovery in rental growth underway. With significant demographic tailwinds, a resumption of immigration, combined with restricted supply backdrop, the outlook for the sector is positive.

Leasing at LIV Indigo at Sydney Olympic Park is stabilized at 98%, having achieved strong leasing success over the period. We've taken many of the operational experiences from LIV Indigo and are implementing this into the design and strategy of our development projects currently underway. LIV Munro in Melbourne is due for completion at the end of this calendar year, with LIV Anura Brisbane and LIV Aston in Melbourne scheduled to complete early and mid-2024 respectively. We have commenced the process to raise external capital to invest alongside us. Our target is to raise equity with a develop-to-core strategy, with leverage in the structure and retaining a 40% interest on our balance sheet. We will continue to update you on our progress over coming quarters. I'll now hand over to Stu Penklis for the residential update.

Stu Penklis
CEO of Development, Mirvac

Thank you, Campbell, and good morning all. Today, I'm very pleased to report that we settled 2,523 lots this year, above our target of 2,500. This was a great result, achieved against a backdrop of extreme wet weather and COVID-related impacts across our projects, which saw a significant number of settlements push into early 2023. We've settled a further 123 lots since June 30. As forecast, gross margins remained elevated at 25% due to over 80% of settlements coming from MPC. This was supported by our integrated internal delivery model and forward planning, helping us to minimize the impact of cost escalation. Revenue growth, driven by strong owner-occupied demand for our high-quality product, was also a key contributing factor.

Defaults were well below our long-term average, excluding Voyager Apartments, which was impacted by many long-dated offshore sales. The introduction of a new 50% capital partner at our Smiths Lane project in Victoria is consistent with our capital partnering approach. This will allow us to leverage our capital even further as new opportunities increasingly come to market. Our shovel-ready strategy saw us successfully bring 6 new apartment projects to the market in FY 2022, our largest release since 2017. Strong owner-occupied demand for premium apartments saw over 50% of released lots sold. More recently, at the launch of Isle at Waterfront in Queensland last week, close to 50% of lots were deposited as buyers continued to value the Mirvac brand and relative affordability and lifestyle new generation apartment living offers.

We found that off-the-plan sales are typically slower, with our customers, in particular right-sizes, preferring to touch and feel a more completed product before purchasing. As we near completion, we are confident in the product we are delivering will meet the needs of our customers as they fully appreciate the Mirvac difference. MPC sales normalized through the financial year with 2,400 sales achieved despite the roll-off of COVID-related government stimulus. 89% of released MPC lots were sold. The diversity of our built land and built form offerings saw owner-occupiers as well as investors offset the moderation of first home buyers in this segment. We've maintained a high level of repeat buyers at our projects as the quality of our build, design excellence, delivery certainty, and amenity investment are increasingly valued.

A recently sold-out release at our master planned community, Everleigh in Queensland, saw over 38% repeat Mirvac purchases from Sydney, Melbourne, and within Everleigh itself. This is testament to the strength of our brand and highlights our competitive advantage against our peers in the current market. Off the back of successful launches this year, we expect to bring over 900 new apartments to the market across a further six apartment projects during FY 2023. Our deep MPC pipeline also means we're able to bring over 2,000 land and built-form lots to the market in the same period. This includes our first release at Cobbitty in Southwest Sydney, a 950 lot project acquired in December 2021.

With zoning in place, we can accelerate the release in this very supply-constrained corridor. Leveraging our strong balance sheet provides a competitive advantage as we maintain our disciplined approach to releases. We're able to bring projects to market in response to demand and growing supply constraints, which will deliver significant earnings from FY 2023. Our integrated in-house design and construction model provides a competitive advantage when managing risks through cost, visibility, strategic procurement, and delivery certainty, as well as the agility to respond to changing customer needs. A number of years ago, we identified the need to shift to greater prefabricated construction methods as a way to mitigate delivery risks. Our early investment in this area means we are now well progressed and leading the industry, particularly in attached housing, realizing considerable savings in time and waste.

As we celebrate our fiftieth year, Mirvac Residential continues to be a trusted brand and partner, delivering legacy projects and progressive communities across the country. It is fair to say the headwinds facing residential sector are diverse and complex, including interest rate rises, cost escalation, supply chain challenges, labor shortages, and softening sentiment. While these are all challenges to be navigated, they must be viewed in the context of the fundamentals that drive residential demand. Low unemployment, rising wages, the resurgence of overseas migration, rising rents, falling vacancy rates, and a growing scarcity of supply in many markets. In the December quarter, we saw 27,000 international migrants enter Sydney and Melbourne. With immigration forecast to continue, while new apartment supply in 2024 is forecast to be 40% below 2018 levels. Mirvac will be well positioned to respond to this critical undersupply.

Our robust pipeline of over 25,000 lots provides significant visibility of our forward earnings profile. Our AUD 1.6 billion pre-sales balance will continue to grow through FY 2023, driven by six exciting new apartment launches. FY 2023 will also see us further explore a land lease offering, leveraging our capabilities in new adjacencies and bringing even greater diversity to our pipeline. We expect to settle more than 2,500 lots this year, noting that weather and COVID-related risks are factored into this guidance with a fourth quarter skew settlement. A substantial contribution from apartments in the second half will see FY 2023 gross margins normalize while remaining just above our through cycle targets.

Residential markets are cyclical, but we remain confident in our ability to differentiate our product, to capitalize on demand for quality and underlying supply shortages, and to take advantage of opportunities as they emerge. Thank you, and I'll now hand back to Sue.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Thank you, Stuart. To guidance. We're targeting FY 2023 EPS of at least AUD 0.155 per stapled security and DPS of at least AUD 0.105 per stapled security. We've detailed some of the assumptions contained in that guidance on the slide, which we'll leave you to absorb following this call. We are very proud of the strong and resilient result we have delivered this year for our security holders. Looking to the future, we are well positioned for medium-term earning growth. Our modern, high-quality investment portfolio, largely created by Mirvac, will benefit from tenant and capital preference for high-quality, sustainable assets, the normalization of trading conditions, and the delivery of new recurring income from development completions. Our expanding funds management platform will deliver a growing income stream.

Our residential business is underpinned by pre-sales to be delivered into an increasingly undersupplied market, also supported by the resumption of immigration. Value creation will flow from the delivery of our pipeline using our in-house design and construction platform. All this is underpinned by a strong balance sheet, a vibrant culture, a platform of scale, passion for delivering sustainable outcomes, and a 50-year track record in creating and curating assets for performance. Thank you very much for spending time with us this morning, and we'll now open up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star then one one on your telephone keypad. For the benefit of all participants on today's call, please limit yourself to two questions. If you have more questions, please rejoin the queue. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Sholto Maconochie at Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Sholto Maconochie
Analyst, Jefferies

Hi, Sue and team, thanks for your time today. I just had a couple questions on the guidance, so I'll stick to that today and keep the rest for later. In the resi pre-sales, I'm not sure if this is related to what was launched, but if you look at the pre-sales in the period between the first and second half, it was only about AUD 608 million versus AUD 85 million in the first half. Sort of down 29% sequentially and 22% year-on-year. Was that due to the slower launches or softer demand or both?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Stu?

Stu Penklis
CEO of Development, Mirvac

It was just timing of launches, and I think it's important to note that in the second half, we obviously had significant settlements in the final quarter that came through.

Sholto Maconochie
Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Then, just on the guide, my second question. In the guidance, how much do you assume any of, if any of Toombul income and any retail CBD support, even though the code of conduct is finished?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

On Toombul, there was no impact on FY 2022 covered by insurance, and we expect that to continue into FY 2023. You should factor in now that there will be no income from that asset into FY 2024 as we work through, as we said with the local community, what we rebuild in a flood resilient way on that site. In terms of COVID impacts, it took no further COVID impact in the second half, and we don't expect any in the coming year.

Sholto Maconochie
Analyst, Jefferies

Even though the CBD tenants, the foot traffic's down, if you're a café, would you give any support in terms of reduced rent? Was that what done as part of the deals or it's sort of a case by case?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

Sholto, we'll deal with it on case.

Sholto Maconochie
Analyst, Jefferies

Basis.

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

Sorry. We'll deal with it on case by case basis, but we've got good ECL coverage on our position at the end of the year, and we'll manage with those tenants through. Obviously that is where our focus is, CBD retail. There's no material allowances in our guidance for future COVID impacts.

Sholto Maconochie
Analyst, Jefferies

Just on the guidance, just finally on the related to that, do you see any contingencies in the costs and any weather? 'Cause the weather's been pretty bad for that. 'Cause you mentioned the Q4 2023 settlement. Is there quite a lot of contingencies for settlements given rain delays and stuff? Or, is that factored in the guidance as well?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

We have taken that into account in guidance. The extreme wet weather on the eastern seaboard certainly has. It does create an impact. We've lost this year, calendar year 2022, 54 working days, which is 39% on site, which is significant. Yes, we have factored in rain delays and COVID absenteeism in forecasting what we think we will achieve for the year. I do think that the result that we achieved in this year with very considerable wild weather and COVID absenteeism, plus all the other things we talked about, getting to our target of 2,500 lots, was a job extremely well done.

Sholto Maconochie
Analyst, Jefferies

Yeah, well done, and good to see some growth in the divi and earnings as well this year. Thanks very much.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Thank you, Sholto.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ben Brayshaw at Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Ben Brayshaw
Founding Principal and Head of REITs, Barrenjoey

Oh, hi, Stu. I was wondering if you could just provide any feedback on price growth expected over the course of FY 2023 for MPC, just presumably based on visibility from contracts at hand and how they would compare with the last 12 months.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Stu?

Stu Penklis
CEO of Development, Mirvac

Yeah, I'm happy to take that. Over the last 12 months it's been interesting because we've seen in MPC price growth probably strongest in Queensland, followed by New South Wales, and then followed by Victoria. To give you some numbers, from Everleigh up in Queensland in the last 12 months, we saw about 27% average price increase. Googong in New South Wales, we saw about 29%, and at Woodlea in Victoria, we saw about 21%. Very strong price growth. A bit slower in Victoria off the back of the lockdowns and that market recovery. It is also important to note that, you know, on average, we did see 15% increase in civil costs across the board as an average.

You know, benefit of revenue growth, but there certainly has been cost increases coming through.

Ben Brayshaw
Founding Principal and Head of REITs, Barrenjoey

You're broadly suggesting that should be reflected in revenue per lot for MPC over the course of FY 23?

Stu Penklis
CEO of Development, Mirvac

No, I think we'll start to see those numbers moderate, particularly as we're now starting to see the softening of first home buyers and the roll-off of COVID government stimulus.

Ben Brayshaw
Founding Principal and Head of REITs, Barrenjoey

Yeah. Okay, no worries. Thanks for that. Just a second question, if I may. On Toombul, I was wondering if you could just touch on what the issues were that has prevented, I suppose, the site from being, you know, reinstated in its current use and just insofar as, you know, plans for, you know, highest and best use going forward, whether Mirvac would, you know, consider redeveloping that site itself.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

As I said, as we said in our remarks, the center has suffered catastrophic damage. You recall in February, the Brisbane area received five times its average February rainfall in the month. On the day of the flood itself, which was called the rain bomb, that area received its entire average February rainfall on one day. The center flooded to over my head height, which caused catastrophic damage into the center. Given our view that that kind of flooding was more likely in the future with climate change, we decided that the only thing that we could possibly do is to create a flood resilient asset for an iconic and beloved site. We had no concrete plans for what that might look like, nor do we. We will consult with the community.

I can say that it will involve retail and services because that's a really key part of the role that Toombul plays in that community. It was heartbreaking all around.

Ben Brayshaw
Founding Principal and Head of REITs, Barrenjoey

Okay. Thanks, Sue.

Operator

Our next question comes from Stuart McLean from Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Stuart McLean
Analyst, Macquarie

Good morning, and thanks for your time. Firstly, I just want to understand a few components of FY 2022 earnings. Just regarding Smiths Lane, looks like there's a gain on sale in the accounts of AUD 16 million in the resi book. Is that the profit that came from the Smiths Lane sale?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

Thanks, Stuart. The Smiths Lane sale actually is made up of a number of different lots. The AUD 16 million that you've identified is part of the revenue that's been recognized on the sale of Smiths Lane. I think just to help you, it has contributed to earnings this year, the sell down. Going forward, we will then collect 50% of the settlements plus a DM fee. The pre-sales that exist at 30th of June are 100% ours, just to help you understand how to think about it. That AUD 16 million in the account is only a part of what contributed.

Stuart McLean
Analyst, Macquarie

Okay. In terms of the profit on sell down, what was the dollar million impact to FY22 earnings? Was that in plans as at 1H earnings when you provided the update? Or is that incremental profit that was achieved there?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

We won't comment on the contribution in total of the sell down to the earnings, but it was definitely always in our plan this year to partner on Smiths Lane, and it was factored into our guidance.

Stuart McLean
Analyst, Macquarie

Okay, fantastic. The other question just on FY22 earnings, just the AUD 13 million rebate you received in regards to land tax on the COVID rent relief. That seems to be maybe 2, maybe 3% earnings, give or take, that wasn't factored into guidance. Is there something in the P&L that's a bit weaker than you expected there, in order to offset that, you know, AUD 13 million-AUD 14 million fee?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

Look, the land tax rebates were always an option. They've been available to landlords who have provided tenant relief. We have provided significant tenant relief over the last three years. It was something that came into the second half, which was on our radar when we put guidance together.

Stuart McLean
Analyst, Macquarie

I just thought that the market was being guided to, you know, at least AUD 25 million of COVID rent relief. It's come in at AUD 12 million. That's a benefit there. Is there an offset in the P&L?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

No. I think we'd indicated on ECL or COVID impact for the year that it was AUD 25 for the first half and then maybe some in the second half. We were working through that based on recovery. We'd thought through all of that when we put guidance together. Overall, if you sit back from the result, there's a lot going on in it, and we've been able to deliver across all of the different parts of the business, including in residential, which has been very difficult with weather and COVID as it adds some tears in. We think it is a good result or a great result, actually.

Stuart McLean
Analyst, Macquarie

Fantastic. Thank you. Second question, just on construction costs. What are you seeing there in terms of commercial construction costs, and what does that mean for the development pipeline and returns on the pipeline as well? Thank you.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

I'll start on that one. In terms of construction costs, it is a great advantage to have our own construction capability and a long track record in working with tier one subcontractors. It gives us stability of subcontractors. It gives us real-time pricing insight into the market rather than lagged estimates that can come from quantity surveyors. It's a great advantage, not only in visibility into the market, but also in being able to be very agile around the cycle and be able to control risk in a much more controlled manner than a third-party contracting model. We definitely are seeing cost escalation, probably in Sydney, running at about 4% overall in the high rise construction, slightly higher, probably in housing construction, and higher again in Queensland, running 7%-9% at the moment.

We do have in our feasibilities, we have cost escalation up until the point we start construction. We generally will have 80%-90% of trades let before we start construction at all. We've got good certainty of cost going into a project before we deploy capital into it. We have appropriate allowances in our feasibility for contingency on top of all of that. I think, yeah, it is testament to the way the model works that with the cost increases that we've seen over the last couple of years, with all of the disruption in the market, that we have been able to deliver what we've delivered ahead of our initial feasibilities, taking into account all those factors.

Stuart McLean
Analyst, Macquarie

Thank you. Does it delay any of the development pipeline at all? 383 La Trobe and 90 Collins. Do the returns still stack on the commercial development pipeline and we shouldn't expect a delay because of rising construction costs?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

The key to the pipeline going forward, which is a very significant pipeline, as I said in my remarks, the largest pipeline we've had in our 50-year history is pre-commitments from tenants, which have been challenging over the last several years as major corporates defer decisions in a time of uncertainty. That will come. The key to unlocking the developments such as 55 Pitt Street, 383 La Trobe, 200 Turbot Street. We are shortlisted for tenant commitments on all of those, and so we'll update the market as that moves forward. It's not. Cost escalation is not the issue. The key to unlocking all of that value is from tenant pre-commitments.

Stuart McLean
Analyst, Macquarie

Great. Thanks for your time.

Operator

Our next question comes from Lauren Berry at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Morning, guys. Thanks for the time. First one is just again on Smiths Lane. Are you able to just comment on the strategy around selling down a stake in that project? Because it does seem like, you know, a quite good project for you guys. Also if you might look to do any more of these kind of deals across the rest of your residential book. Thank you.

Stu Penklis
CEO of Development, Mirvac

Lauren, yes. The answer is yes. It's very much our strategy to create value, create momentum, deliver the upfront social and physical infrastructure, and then bring in a capital partner to be able to recycle that capital into new opportunities. We believe, you know, over the next 12-18 months, there will be new opportunities for Mirvac to move forward on and secure and do it all again. I think it's also important to note that, you know, a project like Smiths Lane has reached a level of maturity now, and the timing was right to introduce a capital partner on that project.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Lauren, I'd also add to that that's very typical of what we do in our master planned communities business. The vast majority of all of our long-dated master planned communities have some form of capital partner in them. Think about ones in Victoria or Googong in New South Wales. It's not a new strategy. It's something we've been doing routinely for years, and this is an extension of it. As Stu said, we'll continue to work in that manner.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Would these opportunities be more in the MPC side of the business than apartments in the near term?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

I think we're seeing both, Lauren. There's definitely opportunity coming where developers are finding it hard to get pre-sales or financing or cost escalation is hurting. We're seeing some examples of developers handing back contracts on pre-sales or asking for additional funding from their purchasers in order to proceed. We think those are signs that there will be opportunity across the board. Of course, with our business being able to work from land through built form terraces, mid-rise, high-rise, we're well placed to look at a whole range of opportunities as they do come to market in challenging conditions.

Stu Penklis
CEO of Development, Mirvac

Just to add further to that, Lauren, I think now more than ever, that built form capability is critical to provide customers with certainty. We're seeing obviously very strong and healthy demand, particularly for Mirvac built form in the housing, both attached and detached. That will continue to be a focus for the business moving forward to be able to increase our exposure to that segment of the market.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great, thanks. Just on your commercial profits, are you able to tell us how much you're assuming in guidance for FY 2023 for that segment? You know, I mean, how potentially could you outperform your expectations on that line?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

Susan, Lauren, the opportunities we see in the commercial mixed-use business are largely in the industrial pipeline. We're well progressed on the industrial projects with pre-commitments at Aspect. Switchyard has been performing well. We also do see some opportunity in the office portfolio like 55 Pitt Street, for example. We're focused on progressing those. In guidance, the way probably or the best way to think about it is we expect probably just over half of FY 22 to be what we would expect to come through in 23. There's obviously a bit of work to do to do all of those things, but we think we've got enough opportunity in the pipeline, the progress on that pipeline to deliver on that.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Would that include a sell down of your industrial projects?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

Yeah. Well, that's definitely where the opportunity or the greatest opportunity will come from.

Lauren Berry
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tom Bodor at UBS. Please go ahead.

Tom Bodor
Analyst, UBS

Good morning, all. Thanks for your time. I just was interested in the Aspect project. I think you've got some good charts there on industrial rent growth and land value since you purchased that project. Noting that the yield on cost is 4.8%. I just was keen to understand the drivers of that and the potential upside if you can outperform that 4.8% number.

Campbell Hanan
Head of Integrated Investment Portfolio, Mirvac Group

Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Tom. Look, you're right. I guess we are seeing some cost inflation, particularly in civil works, and steel and concrete, so which are the key ingredients of industrial development. What I would say with vacancy now in that outer Western precinct at below 0.5%, the opportunity for rent growth through the back end of that project, we think is interesting. It's certainly something that we'll chase. Hopefully those numbers will be numbers we can do better by the time we complete this project.

Tom Bodor
Analyst, UBS

Okay. It's predominant, like, pretty much half pre-committed though. You know, is it, is there limited scope to do much better than that 4.8, given the balance is yet to be committed?

Campbell Hanan
Head of Integrated Investment Portfolio, Mirvac Group

Oh, look, I think it depends a little bit on where rent growth goes through the next six months as we start to pre-commit the balance. Demand is particularly strong at the moment in Western Sydney development space. I guess time will tell, and we'll advise you as we get closer to more pre-commitment activity.

Tom Bodor
Analyst, UBS

Okay, thanks. Just a final one from me. On the residential side, I guess I'd be interested to know what's happened on the leading indicators from a sales perspective, be it inquiry or weekly sales rates, particularly since interest rate rises, sort of where do you see we're sitting in the cycle at the moment?

Stu Penklis
CEO of Development, Mirvac

Yeah. Thanks, Tom. Look, 2021 was a record number of leads for the business. 2022 was the next record in terms of leads. I think we had 26,000 leads across 2022. We are certainly starting to see some moderation in first home buyers. Importantly, what we're seeing, particularly with our product, is still very strong demand for other types of owner occupiers, upgraders, right-sizers, and investors. You would have heard my comments around our experience just recently up in Everleigh in Queensland from an MPC perspective, where we sold 23 out of the 25 lot release in the first day. We're still seeing healthy demand, albeit off the highs of 2021.

Tom Bodor
Analyst, UBS

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Druce at CLSA. Please go ahead.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

Yeah. Hi, good morning, Susan and team. I was just wondering about the BTR development yields. How much of those projects in terms of construction costs are locked in at the moment?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Well, in general, our FY 2023 construction costs are locked in 87% and 40% for FY 2024 across the business, and that's 100% for BTR in FY 2023 is already locked in.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

Okay. From FY 2024, roughly just under half is sort of a good rule of thumb?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Yeah.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

Yeah? No?

Courtenay Smith
CFO, Mirvac Group

Sorry. I think the answer to that was yes.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Sorry. Yes.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

Okay. No, that's it for me. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Richard Jones at JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Richard Jones
Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Oh, good morning, Sue. Just interested to see or to discuss how your risk tolerances have changed over the last six months for both commercial and resi development.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

That's a very good question. We're constantly monitoring what's going on across the market from risk of all sorts of perspectives, so financial risk and all sorts of other risks that are in our business with regular risk assessments and workshops and discussions with the board. Adjusting our target returns given our cost of capital and expectations of future returns. Continually working on the portfolio to make it as resilient for the future as possible with our strategy that we've been on for many, many years of selling older style real estate and creating for ourselves using the integrated model, new fit for purpose future real estate.

That is one of the best risk mitigants that we can think of in this current environment, is to have the portfolio that tenants want to occupy and that capital wants to own. We're constantly thinking about risk in all its forms, risks around ESG, risks around our people, risks around weather, risks around financial performance. It's not something that we just have done last year. That's something that we've always done as we prudently manage this business. I think as you've got to know us over the years, we tend to take prudent positions on things. Hence, you know, for example, we think we are in a good position relative to peers with respect to average cap rates.

In our office portfolio, our average cap rate is slightly wide of the market. Arguably, I think demonstrably probably, our portfolio is better quality than others, given the new nature of the portfolio and the long WALE and the low CapEx. So we have some buffer there. Similarly, with our interest rate costs, 'cause as you would know, we are not in the habit of breaking swaps to swap capital for income, and hence our interest costs have always been slightly higher than others for that very reason. Again, that gives us a bit of buffer in this environment. It's a good question. How we think about risk is something that we work on all the time to ensure that we're moving this business forward sustainably and with growth into the future.

Richard Jones
Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Okay. Second question, just in relation to the AMP Capital Wholesale Office Fund, can you just discuss a few things about winning the rights there, just in terms of, I assume you get asset and fund management fees. Are there any rebates that you're offering as part of winning that deal? Can you discuss kind of the likelihood of drawing on the AUD 500 million liquidity that you've provided and what return we should expect out of that?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Yeah. I'll start on that one. Richard, did you say rebates? I missed a word there. Yeah?

Richard Jones
Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yeah. Is there any fee rebates as part of the winning of the rights?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

We are very proud of the way that we worked with AWOF unit holders over the last 18 months on a weekly basis to co-create a fit for purpose world-class governance and management regime, with all the things that you would expect, around transparency, a market fee regime, and I think you could expect it to be a market rate for funds and asset management and other fees that flow from that. We don't properly manage all of the assets in the fund, but for those that we do, obviously there are property management fee streams as well.

I think it's a very good fit for us and hopefully, clearly the AWOF investors agree as well with a 60% vote in our favor, and we look forward to completing the transition. Important to note, there's no facilitation fee paid to AMP. Maybe to add, the liquidity facility we've offered is up to AUD 500 million. We don't expect that really to play out until the second half of the year, and that will be dependent on where unitholders get to with existing redemptions and other things. We're watchful of that, and you'll see that happen in the second half of FY 2023.

Operator

We'll take our final question from Suraj Nebhani at Citi. Please go ahead.

Suraj Nebhani
Director of Equity Research, Citi

Well, thanks, morning, everyone. Just a couple of quick ones. On the residential side, you previously talked about EBIT secured. Can you clarify what that number is for 2023, please?

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

68%.

Suraj Nebhani
Director of Equity Research, Citi

Thank you. Maybe one for Stuart. The margin expectations into 2023, please.

Stu Penklis
CEO of Development, Mirvac

Yeah, in my speech, you would have heard me say that we're expecting margins to come back, still slightly above our through cycle target, and that will be reflective of greater contribution from apartments coming through in this financial year.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Probably important to add to that at the same time, we expect to have a higher average price point for settlements into FY 2023. While apartments are a slightly lower margin than MPC, they are a higher price point, so that you should think about the contribution in that context.

Suraj Nebhani
Director of Equity Research, Citi

Thanks. Just one final one on the capital recycling, please. Can I just, I mean, can you go through the process of identifying these assets for sale? I guess, you know, can you comment on the likelihood for sale given the uncertain environment in terms of asset values and higher bond yields?

Brett Draffen
CIO, Mirvac

Yeah, thanks. Look, on a quarterly basis, we review all assets in the various portfolios, and I think it's fair to say that we don't get attached to any asset, even if we've created it ourselves. It's quite a rigorous process that we go through in terms of our capital allocation teams working with the portfolio teams as well. We build up a view around how we see total return of all assets in the portfolio, and then we make some decisions around how we see, I guess, those divestment decisions playing out.

It's fair to say that, I guess in identifying those individual opportunities that we see, we've done some soundings with both our own teams, but also with external agents, and we're confident that, you know, there's suitable demand for those AUD 1.3 billion in divestments that we have identified. As we sit here today, there's some assets that are in marketing and/or about to go into pre-marketing and yes, we're confident in the outcome.

Suraj Nebhani
Director of Equity Research, Citi

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, everyone. That's all the time we have for questions. I will hand back to Susan for any closing comments.

Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz
CEO and Managing Director, Mirvac Group

Well, thank you very much, everybody, for spending some time with us this morning. We did note that a few of you snuck in an extra question there. We'll have plenty of time this afternoon to go into detail with you, and we are very much looking forward to doing an in-person roadshow following this result. We're actually going offshore for the first time in two and a half years to catch up with our investors in Asia, and also we'll be in Melbourne. We're very much looking forward to having in-person meetings this time, wherever possible. Thank you for spending time, and we look forward to seeing you soon.

Powered by