Mineral Resources Limited (ASX:MIN)
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Apr 28, 2026, 4:10 PM AEST
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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Feb 9, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Mineral Resources Investor Call and Presentation for the half year 2022 financial results. Please be advised that today's call is being recorded and the presentation contains forecasts and forward-looking information. You should carefully read the disclaimer at the back of the presentation. A copy of the presentation and a transcript of this call will be posted to Mineral Resources website under the Investor Presentation page at mineralresources.com.au. We will be starting today's presentation with a video detailing achievement over the past year.

The half year results are posted to the Mineral Resources website under the Investor Presentation page at mineralresources.com.au. We will be starting today's presentation with a video detailing achievements over the past year. Following this, Chris Ellison, Managing Director, and Mark Wilson, CFO, will present the half year results. At the end of the presentation, there will be an opportunity for institutional investors, analysts, and media to verbally ask questions. If you wish to ask a question via the phone, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type your question.

If you wish to ask a question via the phone, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type your question into the ask a question box. I'll now start today's presentation by playing the half year video.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Securing access to the last remaining berth in the world's largest bulk export port, you just can't underestimate the incredible advantage that will bring to MIN. The Roy Hill and Hancock joint venture that we've signed is another amazing project. We're going to run up someone's private railway line. We're going to put our own train sets on their railway line. We're going to share infrastructure at the mine site, and we're certainly going to share the port. It's just so unique. It's a great cost-effective solution for us to develop our Pilbara assets. Its longevity, security, can't underestimate the incredible advantage that will bring to MIN. The Roy Hill and Hancock joint venture that we've signed is another amazing project. We're going to run up someone's private railway line. We're going to put our own train sets on their railway line.

Speaker 16

[Presentation]

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

The Ashburton Project is an amazing project. It's 150 km from the coastline. Hundreds of millions of tons of iron ore locked up and stranded. This will allow us to access that using a whole lot of new innovation that's never been seen before. The most exciting thing for me is the fact there's nothing there. You know, we're starting from a clean slate. We're going to build some amazing infrastructure and land. We're going to have this amazing ore road. The port facilities are going to be unique as well. Onto the transhippers, you know, they're the first of their kind. The autonomous rail trains are the first of their kind. The crushing plant is the first of its kind. It's our innovation that means we're able to operate through any down cycles. The most exciting thing for me is the fact there's nothing there.

Lithium is a new gold rush. With Wodgina restarting and Mount Marion thriving, we've got two of the best hard rock lithium deposits in the world. I'll certainly see out my lifetime. The whole world is trying to achieve net zero and decarbonize as quickly as possible, and we have what they need to achieve it. MIN will have the first lithium hydroxide plant in Australia. Owning the whole supply chain from digging it up from the ground, literally from pit to product, is unrivaled. The world will know we're a key lithium producer, and they'll know that we're one of the best. As quickly as possible, and we have what they need to achieve it. MIN will have the first lithium hydroxide plant in Australia. Owning the whole supply chain from digging it up from the ground, literally from pit to product, is unrivaled.

Speaker 16

[Presentation]

[Presentation]

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Good morning. Thanks for joining. This is the Mineral Resources half year results. If that's what you're looking for, you're tuned into the right place. I'm Chris Ellison. I'm going to be joined shortly by our CFO, Mark Wilson. We put the video on just to try and give you a little bit of a visual of the size of our operations, the size of the equipment, and trying to give you a little more context in what we go through.

I think, as I'm talking, you might be able to relate back to some of that. Been a tough H1 for us financially. The other side, it's probably been the most successful half the business has ever seen in terms of business development and locking in the future. I've got quite a bit of detail to go through with you on that down the track.

We've locked in two major iron ore developments. Stage one of both those will give us about 50 million tonnes of run rate. We've renegotiated pretty much all of the lithium business with our JV partners. We've locked in mining services contracts. We're looking at double-digit growth over the next five years with our service as part of the business. We've had a significant gas discovery up in the Perth Basin, and we've done all that while COVID's been continuing to disrupt supply and push costs up and keep our borders closed and keep the labor supply at the lowest it's ever been. COVID's probably coming to WA. We're as prepared for it as we can be.

I think these contracts, we're looking at double-digit growth over the next five years with our service as part of the business. We've had a significant gas discovery up in the Perth Basin, and we've done all that while COVID's been continuing to disrupt supply and push costs up and keep our borders closed and keep the labor supply at the lowest it's ever been. But COVID's probably coming to WA. We're as prepared for it as we can be. I think over the last two years, MinRes has been well ahead of the game compared to others. We've been kind of leading innovation around how to look after our people and keep them safe through COVID. We're continuing to do that.

More recently, we've been able to make sure that we know if any of our people have been in contact with others. If we have an outbreak, we can very quickly and efficiently control it. I'm going to run you through today on the past six months' performance. That'll be quite brief. Had we made more money, I would have extended that. The plans over the next two to five years, which is really important, and there's a lot of messaging in there for you to pick up on. At the end, we'll answer some questions. Highlights in the H1 sort of give you a rundown there on the underlying EBITDA and the cash position. We've kept the operations COVID-free, which is good. All our sites are operating.

Had we made more money, I would have extended that. The plans over the next two to five years, which is really important, and there's a lot of messaging in there for yours to pick up on. At the end, we'll answer some questions. Highlights in the H1, sort of, give you a rundown there on the underlying EBITDA and the cash position. We've kept the operations COVID-free, which is good. All our sites are operating, and everyone's safe. Safety performance in MinRes is simply best-in-class. Financial results, as you can well see, they're substantially down on last year, but we had the worst iron ore crash in history, in terms of the pricing.

We've had substantial cost increases, mainly outside the mine gate, around energy and shipping, and really volatile and unpredictable conditions. We're just substantially down on last year, but we had the worst iron ore crash in history in terms of the pricing. We've still got return on invested capital of nearly 24%. As I say, we've been extremely busy securing the next thirty years' future for our business, and that's gone exceptionally well. Safety of our people, I mean, as I said, outstanding result considering, too, the environment we're operating in. Tough conditions out there. Very difficult securing people.

No lost time injuries, and our TRIFR is down around 2.25, which is outstanding for a mining and mining services. We're operating in tough conditions out there. Very difficult securing people. No lost time injuries, and our TRIFR is down around 2.25, which is outstanding for a mining and mining services business when you consider how many people we've got out in the field in a very dangerous environment. The results are primarily underpinned by the training that we do in-house. It's substantial. It's intense. We do a lot of it, but that training gives people the awareness we need to keep them safe.

We've recruited and we continue to recruit a lot of what we call our second-gen people, second generation. If you consider how many people we've got out in the field in a very dangerous environment, the results are primarily underpinned by the training that we do in-house. It's substantial. It's intense. We do a lot of it, but that training gives people the awareness we need to keep them safe. If you've got a son or a daughter or cousin or someone that's related to someone that's working in the business, we think that people have been in the business for a few years, they understand our culture.

When they bring their kids in, the kids know the culture, and we've been extremely successful with developing this part of our business. During this year, so far, we've trained 197 new entry-level employees, and they're a mixture of graduates of all sorts, engineering and accounting, apprentices, trainees, and operators. We've opened a state-of-the-art simulated training center which is producing outstanding results for us. We've got a heavy focus on employee retention. We're looking at making sure that we've got a good environment for them to work in, a great environment.

We're looking at making sure that we've got a good environment for them to work in, a great environment in terms of Pilbara-related work environments. We're building out a new office that, thanks to COVID, has been difficult getting it finished, but we hope to be in there in the next few months. Both the mental and physical well-being of our people is a prime focus. It's a daily focus, and we've got people from top to bottom making sure that we have the right environment, the right culture for our people. We're also looking, as I've said earlier, all our new camps going forward are going to be resort-style accommodation, much bigger rooms, better facilities, and able to accommodate couples.

We've just recently introduced an employee share plan, which has been really well received by a lot of our people. Sustainability. The past two years, the business has grown substantially, but our emissions intensity has reduced by 25%. We are committed to zero emissions. We have a very practical plan in place that we're rolling out continuously. The immediate focus we have is to produce energy from solar wherever we can, and support that with gas-fired. Innovation in the business is also driving lower emissions.

We're bringing in equipment that can move more tons at lower operating use of fuel. The larger hubs around Ashburton and the Pilbara Hub that I'm going to talk about, the scale of those will reduce the intensity on a per ton basis, and they'll be powered substantially by solar and again, supported by gas. We are heavily reliant on third parties out there to come along with green energy. When they do that, we'll use whatever becomes available. Okay, operational performance over the last six months.

Mining services, again, it's been a good story. It continues to grow year-over-year. We've always had solid growth in the mining services part of our business. Our team are very active in making sure that we're providing a service that's second to none to our customers. Our reputation, our track record on what we do on a daily basis, helps us win the future. We're on track for about 15%-20% growth in this part of our business. It's been a good story. It continues to grow year-over-year. We've always had solid growth in the mining services part of our business. Our team are very active in making sure that we're providing a service that's second to none to our customers.

Our reputation, our track record on what we do on a daily basis, helps us win the future. We're on track for about 15%-20% growth in this part of our business. The volumes have increased 18% over the last six months. EBITDA's up 20%. Four new contracts added and three renewals. The iron ore business, it's been brutal over the last six months. We're kind of chasing the price down, managing costs, and looking at turning off any high-cost tons and dragging out whatever savings we can. Regardless of that, it's the largest price drop in iron ore in history. It literally plummeted $128 a ton in 67 days. It cost us during this half, AUD 631 million in EBITDA.

That's where most of our pain comes. Looking at turning off any high-cost tons and dragging out whatever savings we can. Regardless of that, it's the largest price drop in iron ore in history. It literally plummeted $128 a ton in 67 days. It cost us during this half AUD 631 million in EBITDA. That's where most of our pain comes, in fact, that's where all of it comes from. The lithium business is going strongly. Mount Marion at the moment, we've got a high strip ratio and a low yield region of the pit. Production over this half, we're moving forward and now likely going to be at the bottom end of guidance. I'll talk a little bit more about that later.

Wodgina, good news coming out of that. We're starting train one, and we're well and truly advanced on that. Down at Kemerton on the hydroxide plant with our joint venture partners, Albemarle, who are developing that. Train one's mechanically complete. They've got some feed going in the plant. We expect first sales coming out of that product. There's some work to do on making sure the product is qualified and it's at spec and tested. I'll talk a little bit more about that later.

They've got some feed going in the plant. We expect first sales coming out of that product. There's some work to do on making sure the product is qualified and it's at spec and tested. Under the circumstance, the team down there have performed extremely well. Train two mechanical completion will be about the Q3 of this year. That'll just follow the same process of feed in and getting the bugs out of it and getting it up to spec. Under the circumstances, that's all going pretty well. I'll let Mark come and talk you through the financials. I'll come back to you and we'll share the most important part on where the business is heading.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everybody. It's a pleasure to be here with you this morning to take you through the interim results from a financial perspective. Consistent with past practice, I'm going to focus my comments on the underlying performance of the business. Sitting outside of the underlying performance is a post-tax gain of AUD 66 million on our disposal of Pilbara Minerals shares during the half. You can find a full reconciliation of our underlying performance to statutory both in the financial statements themselves in the notes and in the appendix to the presentation. I would characterize the half from a financial perspective as challenging. As Chris said, we've had a significant drop in the iron ore price.

In addition to that, our discounts on the product have widened from an average of 11% in the notes and in the appendix to the presentation. I would characterize the half from a financial perspective as challenging. As Chris said, we've had a significant drop in the iron ore price. In addition to that, our discounts on the product have widened from an average of 11% in the prior corresponding period to 35% in this half. That combined impact with price has had a major driver on our results. In terms of costs have been under pressure, as Chris said.

A significant portion of that pressure has been felt outside the mine gate, and it's important to understand that those cost pressures aren't necessarily being embedded into our C1 cost structure going forward. Generally, the operational performance has been good in the business, the underlying performance, and I think the results show the benefit of the diversification that we have in our business model. In terms of the next slide, the underlying profit and loss statement.

Sitting in the profit figures for the half, a strong contribution, as Chris said, from the mining services business, delivering over AUD 280 million of EBITDA. Lithium has contributed AUD 61 million off the back of a rebound in pricing, and we expect that to continue going forward. The iron ore business contributed a net EBITDA loss of AUD 104 million. Important to recognize that AUD 43 million of that is referable to the prior period, in terms of price adjustments.

I want to call out in particular on the cost side, over AUD 200 million increase sitting outside the mine gate or past the mine gate, and that's by reference to the prior corresponding period. A AUD 151 million-dollar impact on shipping. We've struggled with shipping in the half. It's been a very, very tight market, particularly for the sorts of vessels that we're chartering. We're already starting to see some of those costs come back, however. In terms of haulage, post-mine gate in particular, AUD 54 million-dollar impact against the PCP.

That's in large part a function of COVID and the challenges we've had with trying to secure haulage services in Western Australia. Again, I would suggest those cost increases are not going to be embedded in the business going forward. Given the group's investment program in front of it, and given the results, the board determined that there would be no interim dividend paid for the period. The next slide shows the bridge, underlying EBITDA, on a PCP basis. You can see on that slide starkly the impact, as Chris said, of the iron ore price decline, AUD 631 million. You can also see the impact very clearly of the shipping. Conversely, on the positive side, you can see increased contribution from mining services, as well as the improvement in terms of volume production out of the business.

Underlying performance remains solid, but hammered by the iron ore price and the costs post-mine gate. In terms of the cash flow slide, historically, as a business, we've delivered 100% profit conversion to cash. That's what we've typically done over time. This period, we've seen an impact in terms of predominantly a growth in inventories on the various sites as we've adjusted our approach to respond to the pricing and so on. In the half, we also had some sizable percent profit conversion to cash. That's what we've typically done over time. This period, we've seen an impact in terms of predominantly a growth in inventories on the various sites as we've adjusted our approach to respond to the pricing and so on.

In the half, we also had some sizable tax and dividend payments that were referable to FY 2021. You can see on the cash slide continued CapEx investment for the future in this period, AUD 403 million. In terms of the CapEx itself, the AUD 400 million largely split between sustaining and growth. Just want to reinforce that from a business perspective, we're absolutely fixed on ensuring that our investment decisions are going to deliver at least 20% return on invested capital after tax. That position hasn't changed. All the investment we're doing is to support those or that objective. In terms of the balance sheet itself, balance sheet remains very strong. Cash position remains solid, and we're well-placed to fund the future growth of the business off the back of our balance sheet.

The next five years remain very bright, and the future looks very promising as we move forward to unlock the investments that we have in front of us. Our balance sheet remains very strong, cash position remains solid, and we're well-placed to fund the future growth of the business off the back of our balance sheet. As we develop that cash flow off the back of those strong returns that we expect out of those projects, we'll be able to continue to pay fully franked dividends going forward. Thank you. With that, I'll now hand back to Chris.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Okay. Let's talk about the future. As I said earlier, this period we've been through over the last six months, we've worked extremely hard to secure a range of opportunities. Some of them we've been working on for seven or eight years, some of them for three or four. We managed to pull them all together and sort of get them into a position where they are actually locked in and we know exactly where we're heading.

We managed to pull them all together and sort of get them into a position where they are actually locked in and we know exactly where we're heading. This development phase I'm going to talk about over the next five years, this is not something that we hope will happen or we're thinking we might win at the end of these. They are all locked-in projects. I mean, the business has changed and evolved an awful lot over the last five years. The next five years are going to be way more radical. We're going to be able to accelerate what we've been doing. We're going to make a lot of changes. There'll be a bit of news flow, this calendar year coming out of the business as we get the projects.

I mean, the business has changed and evolved an awful lot over the last five years. The next five years are going to be way more radical. We're going to be able to accelerate what we've been doing. We're going to make a lot of changes. There'll be a bit of news flow, this calendar year coming out of the business as we get things lined up and we're in a position where we can talk more about them. Look, in short, in summary, the business, the mining services business, it'll continue to grow at an average of 15%-20% year-on-year over the next five years. It has a great list of tier one customers. It delivers to them.

It has a great reputation in the market, and it also has as good a list of Tier 1 JV partners that we're entering into projects where we have the management rights and we'll be delivering low-cost products for those partners. In short, the mining services business will more than double over the next five years, and that's from projects that we've got locked in now. The iron ore business. At the moment, we're running at a high cost, smaller type pit iron ore operation. The two new zones that we've got through Ashburton and the Pilbara Hub will allow us to move into a low-cost, long, long life operation. 30+ years in each of those.

We're going to start stage one on the Ashburton at 30 million tons a year run rate, looking for first ore in two years down the track. 20 million, the Pilbara Hub will allow us to move into a low-cost, long, long life operation. 30+ years in each of those. 20 million tons coming out of the Pilbara Hub. These operations are going to be sustainable through any of the low iron ore prices that we've seen over the last 20 years. The lithium, we've probably got, without doubt, two of the best hard rock deposits. They are actually tier one mines, and they're owned with two extremely good joint venture partners.

They're in WA, so we're in probably the most socially acceptable mining jurisdiction in the world and probably the best, the safest. We've got a secure government. We're in a great location and the weather's manageable most of the time. As MinRes, we're targeting over 100,000 tons of lithium hydroxide production within about five years. We've got, again, locked in capability in terms of our joint venture partners are probably the two best hydroxide producers in the world.

We're in good company with our mining services, with our iron ore, with our lithium business. We've got great partners. The gas business, as luck would have it, we put our first drill rod down up in the Perth Basin, and we hit a fairly major discovery up there in September, October. We're looking basically in there to secure long life, low cost energy that can be the basis of a range of different opportunities that we have going forward if we know that we've got that low cost locked in for 20, 30 or 40 years. We'll be able to use the gas initially for our own operations, JV partners, clients and areas where we get benefit.

A range of different opportunities that we have going forward if we know that we've got that low cost locked in for 20, 30 or 40 years. We'll be able to use the gas initially for our own operations, JV partners, clients and areas where we get benefit. We've got a fairly extensive exploration programmed over the next two years. I'll get into a bit of detail now on each one of those. Look, in short, in MinRes, we've got tier one assets, we've got tier one customers and JV partners. We've got bespoke growth projects over the next five years that are locked in, and we can manage most of that in-house. We have that capability.

We have a very, very clear funding plan, and that'll be progressively shared with the market as we start to get to the beginning of the development stage in each one of those. I do hear some noise sometimes about how locked in, and we can manage most of that in-house. We have that capability. We have a very, very clear funding plan, and that'll be progressively shared with the market as we start to get to the beginning of the development stage in each one of those. I do hear some noise sometimes about how are we going to fund or let's say, over the last 15 or 20 years, we've always had a very clear plan on how we fund our projects. We've had a very firm grip on our balance sheet.

I would say that we're one of the best on the market, on return on invested capital. Just to give you the message, it's all well and truly planned on how we're going to fund it. We're going to continue doing what we've done for the last 20 or 30 years. Nothing's changed. The recipe will still be the same. You'll get the returns that we're all used to having. Mining services. We've had a very firm grip on our balance sheet. I would say that we're one of the best on the market, on return on invested capital. Just to give you the message, it's all well and truly planned on how we're going to fund it. We're going to continue doing what we've done for the last 20 or 30 years.

Nothing's changed. The recipe will still be the same. You'll get the returns that we're all used to having. Mining services growth, just a little bit, more detail around how that's going to work. The mining services has always been where MinRes started off from. That's the foundation of this business, the core where our work ethic comes from, our can-do attitude comes from. It gives us the impetus to be able to move when we see opportunity. Generally, out in the industry to our tier one clients, we're out there, we're delivering. Always been where MinRes started off from. That's the foundation of this business, the core where our work ethic comes from, our can-do attitude comes from. It gives us the impetus to be able to move when we see opportunity.

Generally, out in the industry to our tier one clients, we're out there, we're delivering crushing, mining, processing and haulage services. We're primarily operating through gold, lithium and iron ore. That's where most of our business happens. We're pretty focused. I mean, we will take on any mining or hard rock opportunities, but we just seem to bring crushing, mining, processing and haulage services. We're primarily operating through gold, lithium and iron ore. That's where most of our business happens. We're pretty focused. I mean, we will take on any mining or hard rock opportunities, but we just seem to find this is our sweet spot. We've got considerable growth opportunities going forward with all of those range of clients that we've got sitting out there.

As I said earlier, that's primarily based on a range of things, delivery, performance, safety, caring about the outcome for our clients, caring about their profitability to make sure that they get what they're looking for. Making sure that we deliver and there are never any contractual issues between us and our clients. We are just there to get the job done for them, and we know what we're doing. I can see a consistent 10%-15% growth in that area of the mining services business over at least the next three years. When we move into the mining services part of the service we'll be providing to joint venture partners. In the Ashburton, we'll have three build own operate contracts out there, substantial contracts. A lot of capital to set them up.

We'll be doing the crushing, 30 million tons of our NextGen 2 crushing plants. 30 million tons of haulage down about 150 km of highway. It'll be a privately owned haul road. It'll only be the big girls on it. They'll be hauling 320 ton of payload. That's an innovation developed in-house with the help of Kenworth. They're the only ones in the world like it. We've got about 17 or 18 of them running in the Yilgarn, so we know exactly what they can do. 30 million tons of ship loading contracts. That means that we're going to have four transshippers out there, and they're going to be hauling 20,000 tons per transshipper about 22 miles out and putting them on Capesize carriers.

Ironically, after we do all of that, this is going to be our lowest cost port on the West Coast. Lots and lots of future for the transshipping business and, somewhere that we want to progress and grow. The Pilbara Hub, we've got a life of mine supply ship loading contract, so that means that we're going to have four transhippers out there, and they're going to be hauling 20,000 tons per transhipper about 22 miles out and, putting them on Capesize carriers. Ironically, after we do all of that, this is going to be our lowest cost port on the West Coast. Lots and lots of future for the transshipping business and, somewhere that we want to progress and grow. The Pilbara Hub, we've got a life of mine supply chain contract out there.

MinRes Mining Services is responsible for taking the ore on behalf of the joint venture partners from the gate and putting it in a ship in Port Hedland. They're going to do that with a private haul road from Marillana Stationdown to the Mulga Downs rail head. Once it's down there, we'll chain contract out there.

Once it's down there, we'll put it into the stockyard and our joint venture partners in Hancock and Roy Hill take that joint venture that we've formed, and they'll take our ore down, and they'll place it into our ships. That's again, it's another great joint venture that we've done with the Hancock Prospecting team and very good friends of MinRes. Primarily just on the lithium, we will continue doing what we're doing at Mount Marion on the mining services. That's not going to change a lot. Up in the Pilbara, we're starting up Wodgina again. We own the big crushing plant out there and the catering and airport services. That's a mining services contract that's just starting back up now.

Very good friends of MinRes. The lithium. Primarily just on the lithium, we will continue doing what we're doing at Mount Marion on the mining services. That's not going to change a lot. Up in the Pilbara, we're starting up Wodgina again. We own the big crushing plant out there and the catering and airport services. That's a mining services contract that's just starting back up now. Iron ore growth. The next five years, we're developing two transformational projects. We got the Ashburton Hub, that's known as the Red Hill Iron Ore JV. We acquired the iron ore rights from Red Hill Iron over during the course of last year. Since then, we've signed an agreement with the joint venture partners.

The joint venture partners are Aquila, AMCI, POSCO, and the majority shareholder in Aquila is, of course, Baowu. We have a 15% shareholding in that entity as well. We've also just been at the end of January appointed the manager of the Red Hill Iron JV. We're going to carry that forward and start getting all the prep work done on that. The MRL board has approved FID subject to the JV partners. They're going through their process to do the same.

We expect that all to happen prior to middle of this calendar year. As I said earlier, stage one, 30 million ton, at least 30-year mine life and 58% FE. We'll have a central hub at Ken's Bore, which is 150 km from the coast. One of the closest ore bodies to the coast up in the north.

It's a two-year build, and we're aiming to have first ore on ship somewhere between December 2023 and March 2024, depending on how we go over the next three or four months with our COVID. We've done a huge amount of progress over the last six months in terms of port access, approvals, design engineering, access roads, camps, airports, all of the touch points. We've even put an agreement together out there in Onslow with Galinge. We're going to do a 30+ year rental arrangement with them on land access, approvals, design engineering, access roads, camps, airports.

We're going to do a 30+ year rental arrangement with them on renting some land, so we can put our resort on it. That in turn gives them known income for a long, long time, and they'll be able to use that for their people out there. We're very, very focused on working with all of the traditional landowners and the station owners and making sure that there's shared benefits going to everyone. We've also ordered the first two transhippers. They're getting built offshore. Iron ore in the Pilbara Hub. It's a 50-50 JV we've got there with Brockman. Everyone's aware of that. We're the joint venture managers. It's about a 30-year mine life, and there's probably another 10 beyond that. It's 60.5% FE.

Two years of approvals. This one's going to take us a while to get going. Then about two years of development behind that. Again, Hancock and Roy Hill are going to be responsible for doing most of that construction work on that supply chain joint venture agreement in terms of rail upgrade and port development. Very experienced team working on that. The lithium.

Lithium business has changed substantially over the last six or so months. It's a big business. It's world-class. As you're aware, we're just getting Wodgina going. We've sat down with Albemarle, and we've had a look at how we can get the most out of this joint venture. We're exploring the opportunity of MinRes moving back to 50/50 ownership at Wodgina, and we'll take up the management there. It was Mineral Resources designed that plant and the infrastructure. We built it. We've operated it. It's our core business, so that's kind of where we belong. We can deliver an extremely good operation to the JV for the next 40, 50 years. It's a big ore body. Kemerton remains the same. The hydroxide plant stays 60/40 ownership.

The offshore hydroxide, all those plants will be built to consume all of the Wodgina feed. We'll continually just grow those out as market demands. Again, on all of the hydroxide responsibility of Albemarle to manage those. Also, they are responsible for all the marketing and all the sales. The feed for the Kemerton plant, all of that it's been agreed with Albemarle. That's all coming out of the Greenbushes Mine. Good result with all of that.

Good for both of us. The Mount Marion operation, we're just taking back our 51% offtake. That's been going to Ganfeng Lithium since the mine opened.

We're taking that back as of the first of February. We've also entered into a toll treating agreement with Ganfeng Lithium in China. They're going to treat all of that SPOD that's coming out of Mount Marion for us, and that'll be jointly sold into the market. We're expecting first sales around about May this year. Mount Marion growth, look, we're running at about 450,000 tons a year down there. We're going through a pretty average part of the pit at the moment. We have to do it. We've got to get that out, and we're doing a couple of studies down there.

That's probably going to give us about a 10%-15% increase in product. The second thing we're looking at doing is doing a couple of studies down there. One of them is what we call yield enhancement. We want to change the gradation of the ore and reduce the ultra fines. That's probably going to give us about a 10%-15% increase in product. The second thing we're looking at doing is installing a plant to treat what we call the contact ore. The contact ore, it's found at the outer perimeter of the ore body, where the ore body meets the waste. It has a reasonable amount of basalt in that material.

We're going to put a plant in that's probably capable of about 1 million tons a year of feed. But that's subject to test work and us getting the results that we expect we will. We'll keep you informed on that because if that goes ahead, and most likely will, it's going to increase the product volume substantially. Lithium growth. As I said earlier, we're starting train one. We're well advanced on that. We're looking to have first product on the ground in April. Train one turns out 250,000 tons of 6% product. Trains two and three are sitting ready, willing, and able to go. We'll restart them in line with market demand.

It'll take us a little while just to get everything cranked up and to get the downstreaming running. But that'll all happen under a fairly good management team that we've assembled. Kemerton hydroxide, we're expecting train one. As I said earlier, they're putting some feed into that now. We're expecting first sales late 2022. There's some work to do. These hydroxide plants, when you get them going, you've got to get the material running through them. It takes a while to commission them. Then once you do that, you've got to make sure that the customers are happy with the material. A little bit of time. Train two is going pretty well. Mechanical completion, Q3 of this year. It'll just follow the same process as train one.

Offshore hydroxide, that's going to be jointly developed between Albemarle, ourselves, and we'll proportionately fund that fifty-fifty each. Those plants will consume 100% of the Wodgina SPOD. In summary, on the lithium business, our aim is to be up around about 100,000 tons of hydroxide production in about five years from now. Then finally, the last pillar of our business, the energy side of the business. We're the largest acreage holder in both the onshore Perth Basin and up in the Carnarvon Basin, up near Onslow. We recently drilled a hole, we call it Lockyer Deep. We hit substantial gas down there. Testing on the well of our business, the energy side of the business.

We're the largest acreage holder in both the onshore Perth Basin and up in the Carnarvon Basin, up near Onslow. We recently drilled a hole, we call it Lockyer Deep. We hit substantial gas down there. Testing on the well's been slow. We've got to secure a lot of the specialized test equipment and people from both offshore and interstate. Having the borders shut has made it quite difficult. We're hoping that test work is going to be well and truly underway in March when we get everything in. We'll have a better understanding probably around.

We're hoping that test work is going to be well and truly underway in March when we get everything in. We'll have a better understanding probably around the middle of this year of what we got up there. We'll keep you updated on that.

On the exploration front, we're probably going to drill at least six wells up in the Perth Basin. The holes up there go down about 4.25 km, so big drill rig and quite a commitment. We're aiming to bring the Red Gully gas plant that we inherited a few years ago back online. We want to put another drill rig down there and bring the gas back into that plant. Up in the Carnarvon Basin, we've got a joint venture up there with Buru Energy. We're planning to drill a couple of wells out there over the next 12 months. That's basically the onshore region of where Chevron are. Quite a prospective area. Guidance. An update on the guidance.

It's a table that's familiar to all of you as we give you this production and tons that we expect and months. That's basically the onshore region where Chevron are. Quite a prospective area. An update on the guidance. It's a table that's familiar to all of you as we give you this production and tons that we expect and unit costs. The tons are pretty much the same as the recent guidance that we gave. COVID continues to disrupt our supply chain, and it's making life difficult. It's pushing rates up. It's making it unpredictable.

Shipping has been a substantial increase over the last six or nine months, and it's causing us a little bit of pain. The costs that we can control on the sites in the mines with our own equipment are well and truly under control and extremely well managed. The team have done a great job on that. The mining services, we're going to sit at the traditional sort of 15%-20%. We're achieving that, and at least the next three years we'll continue to. Okay, to sum up, it's been a tough period.

I mean, the whole team has been under enormous pressure to keep the operations running. While we're doing all that, we're renegotiating or we're establishing all these new agreements. We're out trying to get approvals in a whole range of areas, literally thousands of them. The team have worked hard and done an amazing job. Don't judge us on the last six months. It's been tough with the iron ore price.

The iron ore price seems to have stabilized somewhat, but we all know how unpredictable it can be. We have certainly been focused on making sure that we've got projects in hand that we're going to deliver over the next five years. They're going to set the business up for 30-40 years out. There's going to be a good mix of diversity in terms of the type of products we're going to be able to deliver. As we go forward, more opportunities are going to come up.

I think we've got a great business. We've moved up the ranks in the ASX over the last few years, and we'll probably continue to do so. The growth that we have, as I said earlier, we have it locked in. We know what we're doing financially. Our track record speaks for itself. We've got plenty of good advice around us. We've got a very tough, robust balance sheet. Our track record on delivery, managing innovation, and we have the team to deliver. Look, I'll wind it up at that. If you've got any questions, Mark and I will do our best to answer you. As I said earlier, we have it locked in.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question via the phone, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type your question into the Ask a Question box. As a courtesy to others, please limit yourself to two questions at a time. If you have further questions, you're more than welcome to rejoin the queue to ask further questions. Your first phone question today comes from Jack Gabb with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

Hi, Anton. Good morning, all. The first question is just on your CapEx and balance sheet. I guess you're talking about adding around about 80,000 tons of retrievable lithium hydroxide capacity and a further 10% stake in Wodgina. I guess even if Albemarle agrees to sell down at cost.

I guess I'm a bit unsure why they would. That's over a billion-dollar outlay. You've got 2.5 at Ashburton, and then potentially another 2.5-3 at Southwest Creek before we consider any other adding. For around 80,000 tons of attributable hydroxide capacity and a further 10% stake in Wodgina. I guess even if Albemarle agreed to sell down at cost, I guess I'm a bit unsure why they would, that's over a billion-dollar outlay. You've got 2.5 at Ashburton, and then potentially another 2.5-3 at Southwest Creek before we consider any other spending at Mount Marion or backfilling resources at Ashburton.

I guess it's a significant amount of CapEx, and I'm just curious, given your comments that you've, you know, well and truly planned to fund or how you plan to fund everything, perhaps you can enlighten us as to how much debt you expect to take on and when you expect net debt to peak. Thanks. I've got one more.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Jack, hi, it's Mark. Thanks for the question. Chris was pretty clear in his statement that we've got a plan and we're going to release it progressively as we announce the full details on each of the projects. Historically, we've always been conservative with respect to debt. We've been prepared to go net debt for periods of time through expansion phases, but typically where we've got projects.

We've been prepared to go net debt for periods of time through expansion phases, but typically where we've got projects that will see the balance sheet return to strength pretty quickly. We have a plan that will get us through the delivery of all those opportunities. I'm not going to share the full details of it now. Okay?

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Thanks. I mean, can you say anything about whether-

Okay, thanks. I mean, can you say anything about whether equity is part of that plan or whether this is more about selling down?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

The-

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

stakes in equity assets?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Yeah. There's no plan to go and tap the equity markets. I'm not going to share the full details of it now. Okay?

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, thanks. I mean, can you say anything about whether equity is part of that plan or whether this is more about selling down-

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

The-

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

Stakes in equity assets?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Yeah. There's no plan to go and tap the equity markets.

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, thanks. Look, second question is just on the iron ore. Clearly a disappointing H1 in terms of price realizations. Can you just tell us what you're assuming for price realizations for Ashburton, given its 67.5% product? Have you also adjusted your cost expectations for Ashburton in light of the increased transport costs in the half just gone? Thanks.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Look, I think firstly, in terms of controlling our costs at Ashburton, the transport costs there are very, very different. They are MIN-owned off-highway units, so they're extremely low cost and they're fixed. There's a fixed capital cost associated with them.

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

Price realization on the product.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Yeah. Look, I think we've disclosed that in the past. Have we?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

I don't know if we've disclosed it, but what I would say, Jack, is that the project is very robust under any sort of ass-

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Cost associated with them. The diesel doesn't move the dial on that very much. Those costs, we kind of have them locked, and there's not a lot of variation on them. What was the second part? Price realization on the materials?

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

Price realization on the product.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

I don't know if we've disclosed it, but what I would say, Jack, is that the project is very robust under any sort of assumptions you might want to make around price or discounts. Because of its proximity to the coast, because of the innovation that we're bringing through the crushing and the haulage and the transshipping, it allows us to be where we want to be from a cost perspective, and that gives us the resilience regardless of what happens on the revenue line.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

The attraction to that project for us is that it's an extremely low cost per ton FOB.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Haulage and the transhipping. It allows us to be where we want to be from a cost perspective, and that gives us the resilience regardless of what happens on the revenue line.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Perfect. Thank you.

The attraction to that project for us is that it is an extremely low cost per ton FOB.

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah, absolutely. One last sneaky one on Ashburton. Is there much more required to spend on that project to backfill resources, I guess, to meet that sort of 30-year life of mine? I know there's significant resources in the West Pilbara, but you're not necessarily a 100% owner of those. Just curious whether there's a bit more spending required. Thanks.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

No. What we've disclosed, that gets us to that run rate for that period of time.

Jack Gabb
Analyst, Bank of America

Okay, great. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Hayden Bairstow with Macquarie. Please go ahead

Hayden Bairstow
Managing Director and Head of Resources Research, Macquarie

Good morning, Chris and Mark. Just on the MARBL JV potential changes. Just keen to understand the metrics of how Kemerton will work with Greenbushes being fed into that. Will you have to pay market rates for that Greenbushes ore? Or is there some sort of cost swap agreement that's likely to be in place on that front? On the target of lithium hydroxide, you know, 100,000 tones within five years, is that some of these projects that Albemarle's talked about building in China already that will go into the MARBL JV or is this new stuff they haven't yet talked about either?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

I don't want to talk too much about the Albemarle side in China. They'll release the information as they see fit. They're in control of the hydroxide, the down streaming, both at Kemerton and up in China. What I can say is that we have got a very solid plan in-house. The reason for a few of the changes that we're moving.

The reason for a few of the changes that we're moving around the deckchairs is that we're just trying to make sure that we've got an extremely solid joint venture, the way it's operated and managed going forward because this COVID thing has been extremely disruptive. We gotta make sure that we've got the right people in the right places. We want to be able to guarantee production and that these plants and mines operate. I think we've come up with a really sensible solution. There's probably a little bit more information flow to come out of this a little bit further.

I think we've come up with a really sensible solution. There's probably a little bit more information flow to come out of this, a little bit further down the track, and it'll make even more sense. We haven't given all the information we can at this stage.

Hayden Bairstow
Managing Director and Head of Resources Research, Macquarie

Okay, great. On the iron ore side of things, just keen to understand, you know, assuming you kick off Ashburton in earnest pretty soon, just on how can you move around people within the rest of the business? I mean, if we're not getting a lot of earnings out of Iron Valley, do you sort of repurpose people to focus more on getting Ashburton going and maybe down-rate production if we see iron ore prices come back again?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Yeah, look, certainly, look, we've Hayden, we've always done that. I mean, if we see iron ore or any of the commodity prices moving, we react quickly to make sure that we minimize any cash drain. Yeah, look, our focus is heavily on Ashburton, but at the same time, I mean, Iron Valley for a long, long time has always sort of produced and it's had more lives than a cat. It just keeps giving. I t's been a good mine, as has Wonmunna. We've got that online. You know, no matter what way you cut it, they're high-cost small mines, but they got us to where we are with our balance sheet. They got our business to the size that it is.

They do carry risk, but we're transitioning into these longer life mines, and they've given us the capital and the experience to be able to do what we're doing today. As we grow as a business, you know, if you look back 10 years ago and five years ago and two years ago, we keep getting better and changing, and we're adding better product.

We're adding better mines to our portfolio, and we've been able to carve out on these two iron ore mines, these two regions we're operating, and we've carved out something fairly serious out of that. You know, to get a Capesize carrier berth in Port Hedland, you know, it's a big berth, but it's in the biggest harbor in the world, and it's a machine to print cash because it gives us that low cost. Then our partnership with Hancock is outstanding. I mean, we've got rail and port all of a sudden. You know, we're up there with the same supply chain as the majors have got. You know, that's Capesize carrier berth in Port Hedland.

You know, it's a big berth, but it's in the biggest harbor in the world, and it's a machine to print cash because it gives us that low cost. Then our partnership with Hancock is outstanding. I mean, we've got rail and port all of a sudden. You know, we're up there with the same supply chain as the majors have got. You know, that's a pretty good deal.

Hayden Bairstow
Managing Director and Head of Resources Research, Macquarie

Yeah. Okay. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Lyndon Fagan with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Lyndon Fagan
Head of Metals and Mining Equity Research, J.P. Morgan

Thanks very much. The first question is on iron ore price realization. Obviously, getting around about half the iron ore price for the period and realize there's provisional pricing impacts there. I'm wondering if you're able to share a bit more detail about whether there's been a step up in impurities and how that rolls going forward. Because I guess I'm just not feeling particularly confident about forecasting price realizations over the next few years.

Whether we get back to where we were pre the half or whether this is sort of the new norm, notwithstanding market discounts are wider. And then the second question was just to maybe talk a bit more about your plans for Port Hedland. Some pretty basic questions. The 20 million tons. Can you maybe clarify whether this is sort of the new norm, notwithstanding market discounts are wider? Can you maybe clarify whether that's your share or the entire scope of the operation?

Whether Roy Hill was planning to ship anything else out of SP 3 separate to your project, just to gauge what the capacity of SP 3 could be. Whether that's your share or the entire scope of the operation. Thanks.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

I'll talk about the first part of the second part of your question. Capacity at SP3 should be around about 40-50 million tons. It's somewhere in that range because it has B-class allocation. Beyond that, there is what they call C class. They're opportunistic tons. If you're efficient, you can get more tons out. The berth's going to be shared between Hancock and MinRes. That's 50/50. We have another arrangement with them with the rail. We've got a life of mine understanding on the rail. We'll have of the tons coming down, they'll belong to the JV, to Brockman. That'll be 50% they and 50% us on the price.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

In terms of the realizations, Lyndon. It's Mark, sorry. In terms of the realizations, a couple of factors. First of all, in the appendix, there's a waterfall that helps give you some sort of indication of how those numbers have evolved.

From memory, I think it was something like 83% to 63% on a like for like basis in the half on a PCP basis. The prime driver for that has been market on widening of discounts. And you know, it's less about the impurities. There's been a bit of a move from the lump as the lump premium evaporated at one point through the quarter. As we've tried to pivot our strategy to respond to the significant fast-moving iron ore price. You know, I wouldn't think that it's. I wouldn't, from your perspective, think of it in terms of impurities. That's not where the answer is. It's been more on the discounts and market movement.

Lyndon Fagan
Head of Metals and Mining Equity Research, J.P. Morgan

Thanks for that. Just to clarify, the SP3 project is a 40-50 million tone project, of which you own 50% of, rather than it being a 20 million tone project?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Correct. Yep.

Lyndon Fagan
Head of Metals and Mining Equity Research, J.P. Morgan

Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Justin Raja with UBS. Please go ahead. Justin, your line is now live. Thank you. Your next question comes from Glyn Lawcock with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

Good morning, Chris. I just had two questions if I could. Firstly, just on Wodgina. You know now that you've wrestled back control of Wodgina, just wondering, you know, firstly, how quickly can you ramp it up? What are the dollars required to, say, ramp it. And given Albemarle still has the marketing, can you sell it to third parties, or is it only going to ramp up in line with internal consumption? That's the first one. Just trying to understand the Wodgina ramp-up potential, what you could deliver us. Then just on Port Hedland, just trying to clarify Lyndon's question. I mean, 40-50 doesn't really make sense to me. One berth, one ship loader is 30. Joined up to Gina's Roy Hill project would add 60. What are you assuming in the 40-50?

Is that a joined up three berth, two ship loader configuration or is it a standalone configuration, or is that still under discussion? Thanks.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

No. On the SP3 with one ship loader, Gina's got on the Roy Hill berths. They've got two berths and one ship loader. This one will have its own dedicated ship loader. What we're going to do is we'll be able to share all the ship loaders across the berths. It'll be run as a fully integrated facility with the Roy Hill existing berths one and two. Berth three is certainly capable of way more than 40 million tons. It just comes down to the efficiency on how it operates the berths. It'll be run as a fully integrated facility with the Roy Hill existing berths one and two.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

Okay. Thank you.

Okay. Chris, you'd agree that if you looked at FMG's configuration, they have three berths, two ship loaders, and they easily do 120. It's conceivable that Roy Hill could go from 60 and double if you just take what's currently happening in Port Hedland.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Yeah, I think, trying to remember. I think FMG get about 185-190 million tons a year out.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

Yeah, that's true. Initially, they were at 120 when they only had three berths and two ship loaders, which is double if you just take what's currently happening in Port Hedland.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Yep. Look,

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

That's fine.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Yeah.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

That's fine.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

And-

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

Just the Wodgina ramp up and how much flex you have and the ability to sell third party things.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Albemarle are responsible for all of the marketing. We think we're going to have first product on the ground in April. You know, we're nearly there. There are no announcements made on sort of where the product's going. I mean, we're certainly going to have product going into downstream plants. Albemarle is sort of working on securing those. When the time's right, we'll be able to come out and tell you exactly what those plans are.

I'm not sure that we really want to go and have our competitors understand exactly what we're doing.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

Okay. Will you be selling outside of the JV or not, do you think? You can't answer that yet?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Well, look, they've just, Albemarle have just made a sale of, some of the material. We've got quite a bit of material sitting up at Wodgina. We're due to load a ship out of there, shortly in the next week or 10 days. We've got a cargo of spod going out to a third party. Have our competitors understand exactly what we're doing.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

I think, Glyn, it's Mark. I think the best way to answer that is to say the preference is obviously to convert wherever possible.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

Okay. Could you give us any insight into the price? Will it be that miraculously high AUD 3,500 spod price or somewhere much lower?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

There are two prices that sort of drift around. I mean, we have us, the other producers, we have long-term models that they basically go out and they use the carbonate and the hydroxide prices from around the world to come back and tell us what we think the market value of this product is. We're all generally contracted in that way. The prices that you're seeing, those headline numbers, they are very tiny cargos of spot price. Look, they use the carbonate and the hydroxide prices from around the world to come back and tell us what we think the market value of this product is. We're all generally contracted in that way. The prices that you're seeing, those headline numbers, they are very tiny cargos of spot price.

Look, if I had to guess at the moment, I'd think that probably the contracted price probably sits somewhere between $2-$2,400 a ton. The spot market price they're quoting, which I don't know if anyone's got any tons to sell into that market. We haven't, and I don't think the others have, but that's about $3.25 a ton.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

I guess, Chris, just finally then, you work that backwards. You look at the spot chemical prices of $60,000 for carbonate, that would suggest that they can pay $8,000 for spot or $6,000 for spot. What prices are you using on the chemical to work backwards then to get to $2,000 contract?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Look, honestly, quite honestly, I mean, the price has moved quicker than our spreadsheet. You know, in the last three months, the price has just gone from something that we thought was getting out there and we're very happy with, but it's probably doubled. We're just not doing a lot on that at the moment.

I remember when it last got up to about $1,300 a ton, and we were extremely happy with that. Then it was down below $400. Look, we're not doing a lot of work around that. We're just confident that all of the base numbers that we built Wodgina on and all the numbers we've put the JV together on do exist. You know, we've all seen commodities that go up like skyrockets. I mean, there's probably only one way for them to go eventually, but I don't think this is going to have a crash landing. I think that it's clearly out there since COVID come along. I mean, a couple of years ago, there was a handful of car companies making electric cars. Today, if you're not making electric car, you're not going to be in business.

I think the supply-demand chain is very different to what we've seen. I don't think there's any doubt that year on year for the next three, four, five years out, the demand for lithium is going to continue to grow. I mean, you read that if it gets too high, they'll go and try and find an alternate fuel. It's taken them probably 30 years to get to where they have with lithium. I don't think that, you know, even if lithium's selling at $3,000 a ton for the spot, it doesn't move the dial that much on the end cost of an electric car. Look, I don't know. I really don't know. I haven't seen a market like this before move this quick.

Glyn Lawcock
Head of Resources Research, Barrenjoey

All right. That's great. Thanks for the color, Chris.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Peter Ker with The Australian Financial Review. Please go ahead.

Peter Ker
Journalist, The Australian Financial Review

Hi, Chris. Thanks for your time. Just on that same topic, you know, the last seven years in spot prices, we saw big ups and big down. You know, we hear you wanting to do more out of Mount Marion, bringing back what, you know, Ken Brinsden wrapping up, output. Are you thinking about this period differently to make sure 18 months from now we don't have a sharply falling price, so you can be a bit more conservative?

Secondly, is there a time in the future where the spot price becomes irrelevant for you and the hydroxide price is the most relevant thing?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

First, on supply, we're starting train one at Wodgina, and we're going to do a wait and see, and see what happens with the market. We have the capability of turning on three trains up there. We're not doing that. We're just going to take this slowly and make sure that we get it ramped up properly. The most relevant for us, I think long term, and I've always thought this, if you own the rock in the ground, then you wait and see, and see what happens with the market.

We want to get the value out of down streaming, so our aim is to get all of our rock converted to hydroxide as soon as we possibly can. We've got a plan at the moment, but I think that we'll be able to refine that, going forward.

A lot's happened in the last 12 months and we're still playing catch up with our joint venture partners because of the uncertainty that's been sitting out there. Look, I think there's no doubt down the track, I mean, we're going to have a substantial lithium business. We have one right now, and we probably have the most clearest certain path of any of the lithium producers I know of to get to where we want to.

Because we have two operating mines, we have the rock in the ground and a lot of it. We're in the right jurisdiction where we're probably going to have least disruption, and we've probably got the two best hydroxide operators in the world with Ganfeng and Albemarle. We are going to build those plants, and we're going to do it as quick as we can. Yeah, it's going to be the most clearest certain path of any of the lithium producers I know of to get to where we want to. Because we have two operating mines, we have the rock in the ground and a lot of it. We're in the right jurisdiction where we're probably going to have least disruption, and we've probably got the two best hydroxide operators in the world with Ganfeng and Albemarle.

We are going to build those plants, and we're going to do it as quick as we can. Yeah, it's going to be a very big part of our business going forward.

Peter Ker
Journalist, The Australian Financial Review

The reference today to building plants outside Australia with Albemarle, can you name the continent where that's most likely to be? Is that Europe, North America, Asia?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Quite honestly, I mean, we're still. There'll be some in Asia, there's no doubt about that. But they're still through their marketing arm, they're still trying to understand where the best places are to put them for the future.

Peter Ker
Journalist, The Australian Financial Review

Beauty. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to the webcast questions before coming back to the questions on the phone. Your first online question comes from Praveen Mani, who asks: "Could you talk about the use of the offtake from Mount Marion after the tolling agreement with Ganfeng ends?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Yeah, sure. You'll notice in there that we do have the right to extend with Ganfeng through mutual agreement. I think they'll be keen to. Look, our first priority, again, has been able to make sure that we change that part of their business. We wanted to get that offtake back, and then we wanted to get that agreement in place with Ganfeng. That's a starter. It just gives us some time to breathe because

Operator

Agreement with Ganfeng ends.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Yeah, sure. You'll notice in there that we do have the right to extend with Ganfeng through mutual agreement. I think they'll be keen to. Look, our first priority, again, has been able to make sure that we change that part of their business. We wanted to get that offtake back, and then we wanted to get that agreement in place with Ganfeng. That's a starter, and it just gives us some time to breathe because we've had so many different projects and things on our plate over the last six months. To be able to catch up on all of these take a lot of effort and time to be able to get the right agreements in place and get the planning done.

That's basically an interim agreement that'll give us some breathing time so that we can work out whether we can extend that with them. Pretty sure we can. They've said they'd like to, but that's as far as we've got so far. All of these take a lot of effort and time to be able to get the right agreements in place and get the planning done. That's basically an interim agreement that'll give us some breathing time so that we can work out whether we can extend that with them. Pretty sure we can. They've said they'd like to, but that's as far as we've got so far.

Operator

Thank you. Now, moving back to the phone questions. Your next phone question comes from Alex Ren with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Alex Ren
Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

Hi, Chris and Mark. Good morning. Two from me, please. I guess both still on lithium pricings. Many of your, you know, lithium peers have provided forward-looking price guidance. Could you give us some more color on that? It looks like, you know, what MinRes realized currently is towards the low end when comparing to peers. With the new toll agreement, toll treatment agreements at Mount Marion, how will the pricing mechanism-

Please go ahead.

Hi, Chris and Mark. Good morning. Two from me, please. I guess both still on lithium pricing. Many of your, you know, lithium peers have provided forward-looking price guidance. Could you give us some more color on that? It looks like, you know, what MinRes is realizing currently is towards the low end when comparing to peers. With the new toll treatment agreements at Mount Marion, how will the pricing mechanism work?

Does that mean we see, I guess, much, much more upside on spodumene price realization, say, trending towards maybe spot, maybe, the $2,400 contract price that you just quoted? I'll revert back on the second one. Thanks.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Let me try and understand that. The pricing for what we're doing out of Mount Marion. All of the lithium, all of the spodumene that goes out of Australia.

Alex Ren
Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

$2,400 contract price that you just quoted. I'll revert back on the second one. Thanks.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Let me try and understand that. The pricing for what we're doing out of Mount Marion. All of the lithium, all of the spodumene that goes out of Australia, it has to go, it has to be sold at market value, whatever that value is. I mean, that's where it's a little confusing at the moment. I had a discussion some time ago with the mines department on, you know, how any of us understand exactly what market value is. We have that model, that formula that's we've used for the last four or five years. That product goes from the Mount Marion mine, which we call the RIM JV, and it goes 49% to Ganfeng, 51% to us. When it goes offshore, it simply gets converted.

We have a model we've used for the last four or five years. That product goes from the Mount Marion mine, which we call the RIM JV, and it goes 49% to Ganfeng, 51% to us. Then when it goes offshore, it simply gets converted. We have a model over with Ganfeng, and we understand what the costs on that are. What was the other part of your question?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

He's looking for guidance on price outlook, I think, if I heard the question correctly, Alex.

Alex Ren
Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

On lithium.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

On lithium.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

On lithium or hydroxide?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

On lithium generally, I think was the question.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

I wouldn't mind going back to you guys and getting it.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

I think.

Alex Ren
Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

I doubt that. That's what I say.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Alex, it's Mark. If I could just add to Chris' answer. You know, with Ganfeng, we've got a wonderful partner. We've worked very closely with them for a number of years, and we'll work with them on the best structures from a tax and funding pers-

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

I think.

Alex Ren
Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

I doubt that. That's what I say.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Alex, it's Mark. If I could just add to Chris' answer. You know, with Ganfeng, we've got a wonderful partner. We've worked very closely with them for a number of years, and we'll work with them on the best structures from a tax and funding perspective to get the right outcome for the business. In terms of the price guidance, you know, we're not in the habit of trying to guide on price. In fact, we focus all of our numbers looking forward on volumes rather than price. We leave it to the market and, you know, you guys obviously understand the challenges, particularly in the lithium space at the moment.

Alex Ren
Equity Analyst, Credit Suisse

Understood. I guess, is a follow-up on Glenn's question regarding the pricing structure at Wodgina with Albemarle. At least for the internal consumption parts, are you engaging with, I guess, the ATO on the potential risks around transfer pricing? You know, at least looking at the current market dynamics, most of the margins would be flowing to downstream offshore and, I guess potentially running into troubles with the ATO.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

I mean, we are concerned with that. We're very transparent with our concerns around that. Look, at the end of the day, I mean, we continue to manage and use the same models we've always used, and there is no gain. I mean, MinRes is 100% Australian. There's no gain in us trying to lessen the price that we put spodumene offshore for, because eventually it gets converted offshore, it gets sold offshore. All of the money that we make out of that comes back into Australia. You know, we paid the tax. This is 100% Australian.

There's no gain in us trying to lessen the price that we put, spodumene offshore for, because eventually it gets converted offshore, it gets sold offshore, but all of the money that we make out of that comes back into Australia. You know, we paid the tax, so it's not like we can escape it. We don't have an offshore, to the business.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Stuart McKinnon with The West Australian. Please go ahead.

Stuart McKinnon
Journalist, The West Australian

Oh, g'day, Chris and Mark. This question's probably directed at Chris. Just in relation to the borders reopening, obviously there's been a lot of talk in WA around this issue and-

Operator

Your next question comes from Stuart McKinnon with The West Australian. Please go ahead.

Stuart McKinnon
Journalist, The West Australian

Oh, g'day, Chris and Mark. This question's probably directed at Chris. Just in relation to the borders reopening, obviously there's been a lot of talk in WA around this issue and, as you'd be aware, the Premier announced a few weeks ago that February five wouldn't go ahead. The opening on February five wouldn't go ahead.

Are you at the stage, Chris, where you believe that it's time to set a date for the WA border to reopen, or are you quite comfortable with the current settings around that?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

No, look, quite honestly, I think that I've always been very comfortable the way the McGowan Government's managed us through this COVID. I mean, I think a lot of people love to go on holiday or go out east or the like, but.

Stuart McKinnon
Journalist, The West Australian

With the current settings around that.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

No, look, quite honestly, I think that I've always been very comfortable the way the McGowan Government's managed us through this COVID. I mean, I think a lot of people love to go on holiday or go out east or the like, but my focus here on the business has been to make sure that we keep all our people fit and healthy and keep them employed so that they can keep earning money to take home and pay for their mortgage and their kids' education. Our priority has been trying to keep the mines open.

I think when he made the call to keep them shut, to extend the hard borders, I think was a great call because we were probably going to have in the order of, I think, 20,000+ people a week coming into the borders. So, you know, they're going to bring COVID straight in. Everyone was saying, "Well, what happens to all the small business?" Well, they keep operating the way they are now. If you let COVID come in and we just let it rip, as they'd say out east, I think it would've shut a lot of businesses and people would be doing what they're doing out east. They'd self-isolate.

I'm very comfortable following the lead that Mark McGowan's following because if we just let the people trickle in and try and keep the curve down, we've got a chance that we might be able to get through this without getting brutalized.

Stuart McKinnon
Journalist, The West Australian

Okay. Thanks, Chris.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Lachlan Shaw with UBS.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

A lot of businesses and people would be doing what they're doing out east. They'd self-isolate. I'm very comfortable doing what, following the lead that Mark McGowan's following, because if we just let the people trickle in and try and keep the curve down, we've got a chance that we might be able to get through this without getting brutalized.

Stuart McKinnon
Journalist, The West Australian

Okay. Thanks, Chris.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Thank you. Your next question comes from Lachlan Shaw with UBS. Please go ahead.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

Yeah. Hi. Thanks, Chris, for the update. A couple questions here. Just firstly on the iron ore business. Just interested to understand what the strategy is to bring the upstream assets back into profitability. Also, just what's happening with current realizations as well, given that we're seeing benchmark 63% around $150 a ton.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

So in-

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Hi, Lachlan. It's Mark here. In terms of the realizations, we don't expect the discounts to widen. Well, we don't expect the discounts to widen. They've come in a touch, but we don't expect them to widen. In terms of bringing them back to profitability, as I said in my comments, slightly under half of the loss was referable to a prior period adjustment and a big chunk of the cost impact sat outside the mine gate. You know, shipping costs impact AUD 151 million PCP is going to change with the shipping market, and we're seeing signs of that already. In terms of the offsite haulage, that was a AUD 54 million impact on a PCP basis. That's primarily driven by access to hauliers to, you know, transport the product through COVID.

We basically had to pay more to get the tons moved. You can expect those numbers to come back, on particularly on the haulage as we start to get a little bit more flexibility into the supply chain. Turning it around, it's less of an issue around cost of the mine gate or inside of the operations. There has been some impact there, but not enough to really drive, you know, the profitability or otherwise.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

Got it. Just to follow up with the iron ore business. Ashburton, are you still looking to take FID on that mid-year? Just where does that sit in respect of the government approval process? Have you got all the approvals lined up, or when are they coming through?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

We've got majority of the approvals are through. In terms, you know, the big one was in and around the port. We've still got some detail that we're working through on that, but the major approvals are done. Most of the access we need from port right through to mine site, we've got almost all of that in hand. There's some other stuff in there that'll happen progressively, but we don't need it to happen before the project starts, if that makes sense. All of that sort of gone pretty well. We've also got the benefit now that we've entered into the Red Hill JV with AMCI.

We got the benefit of a lot of the other approvals and arrangements and agreements they had in place. We inherit those.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

Got it.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

I think that we've entered into the Red Hill JV with AMCI. We got the benefit of a lot of the other approvals and arrangements and agreements they had in place. We kind of, well, inherit those.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

Got it. Thank you. Look, just second question on the lithium business. Just with Mount Marion, obviously 4% was, you know, close to half production in the December half. How should we think about the split between 5.5%-4% spodumene for the rest of the financial year?

Then secondly, in terms of the expansion that you're looking at at Mount Marion, again, how should we think about modeling, you know, 5.5 versus 4%? Thank you.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

I think for the rest of this financial year, it's not going to change a whole lot to what's happened. It'll probably sit around that. Look, in terms of the two studies that we're doing out there right at the moment, we do nothing at the moment. As soon as we get through those, we'll make a decision. We'll get that announcement out, and we'll tell you exactly what that means to extra product on the ground. If we're going to do that, we'll obviously change our guidance straight away.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Rahul.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Get that announcement out, and we'll tell you exactly what that means to extra product on the ground. If we're going to do that, we'll obviously change our guidance straight away.

Lachlan Shaw
Co-Head of Mining Research, UBS

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Rahul Anand with Morgan Stanley Australia. Please go ahead.

Rahul Anand
Executive Director in Metals and Mining Research, Morgan Stanley

Oh, hi, Chris and Mark. Hope you guys are well. Two from me. Look, you have addressed a few questions already. Firstly, on the mining services five-year guidance, you've got 15%-20% CAGR over the next five years. I just wanted to understand, is this ton, tonnage guidance? Is this revenue guidance? Is this EBITDA guidance? I guess I'm trying to understand whether the construction revenues that you'll get, which are very, very low margin, are part of that guidance for the 15%-20%.

Trying to understand, is this ton, tonnage guidance? Is this revenue guidance? Is this EBITDA guidance? I guess I'm trying to understand whether the construction revenues that you'll get, which are very, very low margin, are part of that guidance for the 15%-20%.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

We will always try and give guidance in tons. We're not in the habit of doing it around EBITDA, but so that all the guidance there is based on tons.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Just to add around

Rahul Anand
Executive Director in Metals and Mining Research, Morgan Stanley

That would include the construction?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Sorry, Rahul. It's Mark. I was just going to add on the construction piece. You know, we don't run the construction business as an external sort of profit generator. Over the next five years, that team or those teams are going to be very much focused on internal delivery.

Rahul Anand
Executive Director in Metals and Mining Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Just one follow-up there, Mark, if I may. I noticed that in the last full year results, you had about 30% of contracts in terms of revenue coming up for renewal over the next five years. That number seems to have risen to about 65% in the mining services revenue. Were there a fair few contracts that are sitting on the cusp? And can you provide a bit more color as to what contracts are these internal, external, and how should we think about that revenue longevity?

More color as to what contracts are these internal, external, and how should we think about that revenue longevity?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Rahul, I think the best way to think about it is, you know, we can point to a track record of retention over the last 15, 16 years as a listed company, probably unparalleled. We've had a 100% retention rate through this half. And it's basically because of the relationships we have with the customers and the way that we go to work with them. You know, I think in terms of trying to get a better flavor for the book and what it looks like going forward, I'd be thinking more in terms of the growth opportunities. You know, the market needs players, us, who can respond with agility and in ways that we go to work with them. You know, I think in terms of the

Trying to get a better flavor for the book and what it looks like going forward, I'd be thinking more in terms of the growth opportunities. You know, the market needs players, us, who can respond with agility and in ways that that's sometimes difficult for others, right? So we see a lot of opportunity going forward. We've got a great track record in terms of retention that we can point to. We don't expect that to change.

Rahul Anand
Executive Director in Metals and Mining Research, Morgan Stanley

Perfect. No, that's fair. That's fair. Okay. Second question was on Mount Marion. Chris, you talked about two projects. One is the ultra-fines and one's the basalt. Basalts pretty straightforward. With the ultra-fines , I wanted to understand, are you aiming to basically have better blasting so that your fragment sizes are bigger and the yield goes up in the plant? Or are we talking about a significant CapEx item in any way here for Mount Marion? And then also the timing. How should we think about when this extra production can come?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Okay. On the timing, we're thinking that we're going to have it sort of.

Rahul Anand
Executive Director in Metals and Mining Research, Morgan Stanley

That your fragment sizes are bigger and the yield goes up in the plant? Or are we talking about a significant CapEx item in any way here for Mount Marion? Also the timing. How should we think about when this extra production can come?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

Okay. On the timing, we're thinking that we're going to have it sort of finalized so that we can approve it, and that is getting the test results back. We're thinking that maybe around August, September, we might be able to have that in place. In terms of CapEx, it's fairly minimal. It's a lot to do simply around changing some gear out down there for some other gear that we've finalized so that we can approve it, and that is getting the test results back. We're thinking that maybe around August, September, we might be able to have that in place. In terms of CapEx, it's fairly minimal.

It's a lot to do simply around changing some gear out down there for some other gear that we've finalized so that we can approve it, and that is getting the test results back. We're thinking that maybe around August, September, we might be able to have that in place. In terms of CapEx, it's fairly minimal. It's a lot to do simply around changing some gear out down there for some other gear that we've got. Cone crushers will be going in, and it's just basically giving the rock a lighter touch. Nothing to do with the blasting. It's all on the plant. It's giving the rock a much lighter touch and trying to minimize the ultra fines generation.

Because once it gets into the ultrafine , I mean, it's fairly hard to recover the lithium units.

Rahul Anand
Executive Director in Metals and Mining Research, Morgan Stanley

Perfect. That makes sense. Can I sneak in one more on Mount Marion if that's okay, please? That just relates to the production grade. You talked about that in the presentation today, 60.5%. That's obviously a bit higher than the resource grade, and I understand there might be some beneficiation there. Perfect, that makes sense. Can I sneak in one more on Naluna if that's okay, please? That just relates to the production grade. You talked about that in the presentation today, 60.5%. That's obviously a bit higher than the resource grade, and I understand there might be some beneficiation there. Is it simple wet beneficiation similar to Fortescue, or are you looking at something different here?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

No, it's pretty simple, basic wet beneficiation. That deposit up there. There's no real drill and blast in it. It's pretty much the whole deposit's free-dig back into the back of a truck. The in-pit part of it is fairly low cost. It goes into. There's probably about between 10%-15% that needs a light crush. It's straight into the beneficiation plant.

It separates and the waste goes out and the product in the other stream.

Rahul Anand
Executive Director in Metals and Mining Research, Morgan Stanley

Gotcha. Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you both. I'll pass on.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Paul Young with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Paul Young
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Morning, Chris, and good morning, Mark. Hope you're well. First question is on the crushing contracts. You know, noted you had a pretty decent step up in external revenue, PCP, and you took on those 4 new contracts. Chris, what commodities were they? If you can help us. Also, were they all crushing contracts or were some of those mining contracts?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

No, look, there's a mixture in there of crushing and mining. We've got a very specialized mining division and we're able to secure high quality mining equipment and have been able to over the last few years where others can't. Look, it's a combination of mining and crushing, and we're heavily into the iron ore area. Obviously, I mean, the equipment we run can deal with that. We've got really good experience in that area. There is also. Look, we recently, one of the contracts we just won recently was a little one up in the territory, crushing some spodumene. We're able to secure high quality mining equipment and have been able to over the last few years where others can't.

It's a combination of mining and crushing, and we're heavily into the iron ore area. Obviously, I mean, the equipment we run can deal with that. We've got really good experience in that area. There is also. Look, one of the contracts we just won recently was a little one up in the territory, crushing some spodumene. It's a mix. There's a bit out there in the gold industry. We tend to only be able to work for the bigger gold companies because of the safety. Really good experience in that area. There is also. Look, one of the contracts we just won recently was a little one up in the territory, crushing some spodumene. It's a mix.

There's a bit out there in the gold industry. We tend to only be able to work for the bigger gold companies because of the safety regime that we and they run. Yeah, look, it's a bit of a mix. I mean, we kinda know where a lot of our clients are headed over the next 3 years at least. We get some good consultation with that. There's also the element of surprise. Things come out of the blue where they need our services. We carry a huge amount. We've got AUD several hundred million worth of crushing and processing equipment that we keep in stock.

Paul.

Paul Young
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thanks, Chris. A question on CapEx and the guidance increasing by AUD 100 million. Obviously, everyone's wary of inflation at the moment, particularly in WA. Can I actually ask a question around the Ashburton AUD 2.4 billion-AUD 2.55 billion capital estimate? That estimate's probably a pre- you know, rapid inflation estimate. Are you still comfortable? How robust is that estimate?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Yeah. No, it's a pretty tough number. Just bearing in mind there's no real technology in this project. There's no black boxes in it. I mean, we've got to build a road, we've got to build a port. I mean, all of that's fairly straightforward. The port that we're building, it's a very shallow berth. I mean, with the transshippers draw about 6.5 meters of water when they're fully laden. So not a big deal on that. The storage we do. Everything is undercover on Ashburton, so it's a completely dust-free environment all the way from the mine through to the ship. I mean, probably our biggest risk on that was the transshippers there. These transshippers are a first in the world.

They've been designed in-house using international marine consultants. They would be our biggest risk on the project, but we've just let the first two, and we got down to the number we're looking for, and we've got them in one of the big, big shipyards. I think we've pretty much got it covered. You know, we're building sheds, we're, you know, we're opening up pits, building a road. The road, if you're going to build a road, I mean, that's the place to build it. I mean, you can almost see the mine site 150 km out, so it's pretty flat.

Paul Young
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Right. Chris, final question, still on the CapEx theme, and looking at the Hancock joint venture, when will you have a capital estimate to, you know, on a 100% basis and therefore your share? And it's a it seems to me that's a lower risk project because it's rail versus road versus Ashburton. How do you compare the, you know, the IRR versus the two and the risk profile?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

I consider the risk at Ashburton extremely low. I mean, we've built, going to say we've probably built 400 or 500 Ks of road ourselves in the last 5-7 years, so we know what we're doing with that. We've got a big bridge to build over the highway, but we've got main roads that are going to build it for us, and we've got a number of them. Building out in with Hancocks on the Roy Hill line, I mean, that's a fairly safe.

We've got a big bridge to build over the highway, but we've got main roads that are going to build it for us, and we've got a number of them. Building with Hancocks on the Roy Hill line, I mean, that's a fairly safe operation. We're going to put another berth in the harbor, and that's been done about 17 or 18 times before. We're going to add to an existing rail. We're going to add to an existing stockpile.

You know, it's all fairly low risk, manageable in terms of the capital. We're expecting FID to be June this year. Hancock have got a fairly big team working through right now on getting all those numbers pulled together. We'll have them over the next couple of months. I expect FID will be, yeah, about mid-June.

Paul Young
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Okay. That's great. Then it may just be a follow-up, maybe to Mark around the IRR. Mark, how do you think about the returns of Ashburton versus Port Hedland?

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

I'm excited by them. Is that a good answer? They're both robust projects. They both offer us mining services opportunities with long life. Marillana is obviously different grade to Ashburton, so, you know, they're in different parts of the market. You know, I don't have a preferred child if you're asking that question. Come back to what I said earlier, you know, each project we look at has got to be able to deliver at least 20%+.

you know, I don't have a preferred child if you're asking that question. Come back to what I said earlier, you know, each project we look at has got to be able to deliver at least 20%+ return on invested capital after tax. That's not assuming $100 or $110. That's assuming sort of long-term guidance prices given out by guys like you. Yeah, both of them are robust.

Paul Young
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

I think I'd be excited to have either in the portfolio, let alone both.

Paul Young
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Thanks. I know I'm at the tail of the questions, guys, but just one last one. Chris, just on FID in June, you know, looking at your presentation, you say two years of approvals on the Pilbara Hub. Is the FID around the port as opposed to the mines?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Look, it's a project as a whole. We can't have the mine if we haven't got the rail or the berth. The whole thing's a package deal. We've got to make sure they all line up. We've got to make sure that, you know, the cost of the dredging is what we think it is. We've just got to make sure we lock all those numbers down, and then we relook at the project and make sure we're going to get what we want out of it. Just a little bit more on that question you were talking with Mark on there. The difference between the two projects is that they've each got some good and bad in them.

If you compare costs are going to be a little more elevated on the Marillana JV as compared to the Ashburton one because we're moving a lot of tons there. Because we beneficiate, we move a lot of tons and send some waste back. We have to still road haul probably 100 km down to the rail head, and then it goes on the rail. Once it goes on the rail, we get it down for a fairly low number and into a ship. When we pick it up in the Ashburton, we're only 100 there because we beneficiate, we move a lot of tons and send some waste back. We have to still road haul probably 100 km down to the rail head, and then it goes.

Once it goes on the rail, we get it down for a fairly low number and into a ship. When we pick it up in the Ashburton, we're only 150 km out as opposed to 300 out. Those big trucks that we operate, I mean, the cost per ton kilometer on them is comparable to the trains that we're running in the Yilgarn. You know, they've all got their plus and minuses, but if ore gets down to, you know, if it's $40 a ton, we're still operating and we're still making cash.

Paul Young
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thanks, Chris. Thanks, Mark. That's it for me.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

We're still operating, and we're still making cash.

Operator

Thank you. A reminder to please limit yourself to two questions at a time. Your next question comes from Paul McTaggart with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Paul McTaggart
Head of Research for Australia and New Zealand, Citigroup

Hi, gents. Look, I just want to follow up on the agreement with Ganfeng around tolling. Obviously you're doing that 'cause you're trying to pick up a bit of color, that margin, the hydroxide margin. Can you give us a sense of, you know, in terms of a kinda realized price for spodumene for you, how that might change as you go to a tolling agreement? Because obviously we've kinda put some tolling costs into our numbers, at least for the seven months tolling.

Mark Wilson
CFO, Mineral Resources

What I said earlier was that, with Ganfeng we've got a great partner. We'll work through the structuring. You know, one version is that we're just selling it market price as we currently are. That's, you know, that picks up Chris's point around the whole transfer pricing issue. At the other extreme, we effectively do it on consignment. I'd say that's less likely, right? We're just working through. Part of the consideration is tax optimization. Not that I'm allowed to say that, but that's one of the things we have to think about. That picks up Chris's point around the whole transfer pricing issue. At the other extreme, we effectively do it on consignment. I'd say that's less likely, right? We're just working through. Part of the consideration is tax optimization.

Not that I'm allowed to say that, but that's one of the things we have to think about. I think, you know, think about it this way. The best way to think about it, simplest way to think about it is we continue to sell the spod at market, and then we take a clip on the hydroxide down the track.

Paul McTaggart
Head of Research for Australia and New Zealand, Citigroup

Okay, thanks. Thanks.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Just if I could stress a bit more. The commodities, iron ore, whatever they are, always have to go onto a ship at market price because there are two things. One is that the state government needs the right amount of royalty. That's got to be very transparent, so we're very careful with that. We stay in touch with the state government on that. Then secondly, I mean, whether we sell the spod for AUD 1 a ton going out of the country, we still own it when it goes out. It gets converted as hydroxide. Regardless of where we make the profit, all of our money comes back into Australia, and we pay the full amount of tax. There is no advantage in trying to even do any price transfer.

Not that we would, but the country, we still own it when it goes out. It gets converted to hydroxide. Regardless of where we make the profit, all of our money comes back into Australia, and we pay the full amount of tax. There is no advantage in trying to even do any transfer pricing. Not that we would, but there is no advantage. The tax department, I think, are very relaxed with us because no matter what happens, they pick it up.

Operator

Thank you. Your final question today comes from Robert Stein with CLSA. Please go ahead.

Robert Stein
Lead Mining and Metals Research Analyst, CLSA

Hi, guys. Just a quick one on short-term pickup in iron ore pricing and the recent news out of China relating to pollution restrictions being unwound or deferred. Are you seeing a change in procurement practices by the mills that you're selling ore to and an increased demand for lower grade ore? The second question I have is more is a longer-term one around Brockman, but I can come back to it.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Look, it's hard to get any real transparency at the moment through to in terms of the ore. Look, certainly, there's always a very strong demand out there for the lower grade ore. I think when they get it into the mill and they do their blending, I think they obviously enhance their bottom line using low grade. I mean, we don't get much visibility over what's been happening in there and over the last year for the lower grade ore.

I mean, we don't get much visibility over what's been happening in there and over the last three or four months.

Robert Stein
Lead Mining and Metals Research Analyst, CLSA

Cool. Thank you. Just on a longer term question around strategy around Brockman. With the FE grades and the announced intention to share infrastructure through Roy Hill, is there any sort of opportunity for blending and optimization of grades across both mines as you enter into that relationship? Is that part of the current sort of deal of agreement that you're trying to drive with China? Yeah.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Look, I would think probably not. A lot of the time there's no real value in blending the ore because if you're blending a good grade ore with a poor grade ore, you know, you almost end up where 2 and 2 equals 1 and 7/8. There's the cost of doing it to start with is difficult. If there's different ownership, that becomes difficult. There's not very often a value add in it. If you're blending a good grade ore with a poor grade ore, you know, you almost end up where 2 and 2 equals 1 and 7/8. There's the cost of doing it to start with is difficult. If there's different ownership, that becomes difficult.

It's not very often a value add in it. A number of companies have blending yards in China, like Rio Tinto have got one over in China, and I think FMG have got them. In certain instances, they find value in doing it that way. I don't think there's any for us, and certainly not. I don't think we'll be blending Onslow with Marillana. That's almost certain that wouldn't happen.

In certain instances, they find value in doing it that way. I don't think there's any for us and certainly not. I don't think we'll be blending Onslow with Marillana. That's almost certain that wouldn't happen. Sorry.

Robert Stein
Lead Mining and Metals Research Analyst, CLSA

Oh, no. Sorry. Even with the CID ore that forms part of the Brockman reserves? Or is that? Are we just thinking of that as discrete products with discrete realized pricing?

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Yeah. Look, I think we'd want discrete products and, what we've looked at so far, I mean, our experience tells us that it's a better outcome for us financially.

Robert Stein
Lead Mining and Metals Research Analyst, CLSA

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. That's all the time we have for our question and answer session today. I'll now hand back to Chris Ellison for closing remarks.

Chris Ellison
Managing Director, Mineral Resources

Okay. Well, look, thanks, everyone, for joining. I think we had some good questions. We've given as much information as we can. We will have more news flow certainly over the next three and four months. As that comes available, we'll make sure we get that out into the market straight away. As these projects get to start up, we'll certainly be all over the funding. I don't want to say just trust us, but our track record kind of suggests that we're more than capable of delivering what we commit to. It'll all become clear, I think, over the next three months of exactly how we intend to put all that funding together. Don't stress over it.

We will give you a roadmap on exactly how that's going to work as this. Our track record kinda suggests that we're more than capable of delivering what we commit to. It'll all become clear, I think, over the next three months of exactly how we intend to put all that funding together. Don't stress over it. We will give you a roadmap on exactly how that's going to work as we go forward. You'll have plenty of time on that. Look, thanks, everyone, for joining. Thanks for everyone behind the scenes in helping me pull this together. It's been a great job from our team as always. We will talk again probably in about six months from now. Thank you.

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