Good morning, everyone. Thank you this morning for joining the Mitchell Services Q3 Quarterly Update. Today we have Andrew Elf, CEO; Greg Switala, CFO; and joining us as well is Nathan Mitchell, Executive Chair. We'll have a Q&A at the end, so post Andrew ranks with the update, I can ask questions at the end. Andrew, over to you. Thank you.
Thanks very much for the introduction, Alan, and welcome everyone, and thanks for joining us today. We'll just do, again, similar to previous months, a little bit of a quick update on the quarter, and then open it up to questions and make it more of an interactive session for everyone. I think just starting at the top of the quarterly there, I think, again, the heading there, strong financial performance at the end of Q3, and expected to continue into Q4 and beyond, which is a positive and something we've certainly flagged previously with shareholders and potential investors. On the quarter itself, again, in the half year, we really spoke about some of those factors in detail that impacted the first half, things we've invested in and won and things that impacted the business.
Pleasingly, as we say there, the investment into replacement projects and service offerings has been made, and we're starting to see us come out of that now. Still impacted in Q3 with mobilisation costs and weather and delays, obviously the traditional Christmas-New Year period, but pleasingly, towards the end of the quarter, as we expected, starting to perform better from a financial perspective, and some of those mobilisation costs are dropping away, which is a real positive thing. On the second page, we've put a little bit more detail in than ordinarily we would, given the disparity between cash and EBITDA, just in the interest of transparency to really show people why that's moving.
Effectively, given that better performance towards the end of the quarter, you've sort of got a temporary working capital requirement within the business, and Greg certainly happy to take some questions in regards to that at the end of the presentation here. We really could not be much more transparent than that, and obviously, we expect that to sort of normalise more so at a future point in time. We have included there as well the year-to-date results. There is obviously coverage out there on us from Q-Value and Morgans, and I'd certainly refer people to that if they're looking at what do they think the year for this year may look like or the next year ahead. On the last page of the quarterly document, we've got a small update there in the Loop decarbonisation business.
Very pleasing to say that that business is performing in line and above expectations, both from the drilling performance perspective, but also a business perspective with a couple of clients signed up and the second client now going through the engineering phase. I certainly think that that part of the business is a genuine growth opportunity for us, and it's early days, as we say, but we'll keep chipping away, and it's looking pretty good at this stage. Lastly, on the outlook side of things, again, we flagged that we've had some challenges we've faced. We've responded, we've managed them. We're starting to come out the other side. The numbers were better towards the end of the quarter, as we say. They're looking like it's going to be a better quarter again in the last quarter and a good run rate heading into next year.
Again, important to note in this paper here, we say, based on current contracted projects, we expect the recount to be on or around 70. We do not necessarily need to win more to get to that point. I think that is a really important point to make. How could I go through this without touching on gold? Obviously, gold is about 45% of our revenue. We do surface drilling work, underground drilling work in that gold space. Given the record prices in that area, we are starting to see increased inquiries come through. I would not say it is translating into meters yet, but certainly the level of inquiry is increasing, which is a positive. That is just a little bit of a summary and a wrap-up of the quarter.
Nathan, I'm not sure if you've got anything you'd like to add or just happy to open to questions.
No, I'll be open to questions. Thanks, Alan. We'll open up for questions.
Perfect. Thanks, Andrew. Okay. First one's from Daniel. How much additional working capital investment may be required in the fourth quarter of FY 2025?
I'm happy to take that one, and thanks, Daniel. I think if you sort of compare that AUD 28 million to legacy levels, that's certainly up there. When I say legacy levels, sort of over the last 18 months to two years. I sort of believe that that's about the level it'll maintain at, at least for the next quarter. To answer the question, don't expect an addition to that. That inventory of AUD 14 million now represents fully stocked sites at the likes of Lahire and Decarb and all those sites that we've spoken to previously in terms of the need for that additional inventory. I think AUD 18 million in trade payables is probably about right as well. Subject to clients continuing to pay on time, that sort of low to mid-30's thereabouts, pending revenue, of course, is probably a reasonable number as well.
We make the point in the quarterly that we expect it to normalise, and I think normalise from the next quarter as in no additional dollars from the AUD 28 million.
Thank you. The question from Daniel. Are there any potential legislative changes proposed by either the government or opposition ahead of the forthcoming election? If we do get a change of government, do you think this presents any potential risks to the safeguard mechanism of legislation as it stands?
I haven't seen anything in the media that suggests there's going to be changes from either party. That's not to say that I haven't missed something, but nothing I have seen.
No, I haven't seen anything. There's been no feedback yet from our clients.
No. I'd say probably the best way to look at it at this stage would be same-same, in all honesty.
Thank you, Andrew. Can you provide some more color on what you're seeing in the goal setter in terms of commentary around improving demand for the drill line?
Pretty straightforward, pretty simple. They're absolutely killing it if they're producing, and they should be. If they're not, they're in the wrong game. I think they're just making that much money that they're starting to reassess their drilling budgets. This is from a producer perspective, and those discussions are sort of just starting. A lot of people running Australian financial year are well and truly into their budgeting and planning process. We're sort of hearing that there may be some increasing budgets into next financial year, which is a good thing given how the producers are performing. The smaller end of town, the juniors, I think equity markets have been a little bit better, but it's still taking time for the meters to come. They're not well and truly up and running, firing active tenders out yet.
I think the best way to look at it, producers are talking about more metres. Equity markets have improved slightly for juniors and both of those things leading to increased inquiries, but not metres yet.
Thank you. In regards to, I guess, coal sector clients, the conditions there, is their demand proving resilient despite relatively weak prices at current?
It's certainly challenging in the coal. Obviously, prices are down, and obviously you've got royalties in Queensland, which make it a little bit harder too. It is probably flat. There's nothing too exciting happening in that space in the coal. It's good, steady, ongoing work that represents probably 30-40% of our revenue, and it's very closely linked to the operation of those mines or very much near mine work. We have some good clients in that space, and they're still active, and they're still going well. It is probably fair to say, Nathan, they're not doing anything they don't have to do.
No, I think the thermal guys are either at par or underwater, which we do not do a lot of work in the thermal industry. Coke and coal companies are still doing okay, but I think all of them are certainly not as active as they were previously. Obviously, Anglo and the Peabody deal has yet to be resolved. We have not heard anything either way about what is happening with that. That was a large chunk of our business, but we have had to pivot away from that over, we have talked about that over the last 12 months, six months. That is, we are coming through that now. As you can see, as Andrew said, in this quarter, it has taken a bit to sort of swallow and push through. There are two, obviously, active. One mine shut down, one is still going.
We're not sure what's going to happen with Anglo American and what's going to happen with Moromba North. Obviously, coal prices being suppressed doesn't help that. As Andrew just said there, we're still active in that sector, and it's still going well. It still represents a good part of our business. I think coking coal is still here for a while. No doubt things will hopefully increase in the future.
Yeah. I certainly think that the diversity that exists within the business has held us in good stead over many years now. Gold's up, coal's a bit flat, and we've seen it the other way as well. That's good. The rigs can move in many instances between the two commodities as well.
Thank you. The question from Daniel. Can you remind us what D&A should be in FY2025 and why this has been relatively stable as CapEx has tracked below D&A?
In terms of the first part of that question, sort of somewhere around the AUD 25 million or thereabouts, D&A in FY2025. In terms of the second part, the D&A on a sort of monthly basis is certainly decreasing. It does take a little bit of time to sort of fully unwind. I suppose if CapEx from year one to year two decreases, you do not automatically see a corresponding decrease just given the nature of what was purchased in the previous years and the length of time it takes to depreciate. We are seeing a reduction. The other part of that equation is just with the LF160s previously purchased, I suppose CapEx in recent years comprises a lot of sort of ancillary gear, drill pipe as an example, as opposed to drill rigs in previous years. That sort of equipment depreciates at a quicker rate than the rigs.
You've got a bit of a mixed element there too in terms of depreciation periods. At forecast levels, it's due to decrease, maybe just for those reasons, not at the same sort of dollar value rate as the CapEx goes down by, I suppose.
Thank you. A question from Neil. Can you explain how the Loop activities differ from your standard underground de-gas drilling?
Yeah, I think they're very different. It's essentially different drilling rigs, different drill pipe, different bottom hole assemblies, different directional control equipment. I think the fundamental concept of drilling a hole horizontally is the same, but apart from that, they are very different technologies. The equipment we've got here now is the first of its kind doing what it's doing. It is a very different offering to underground coal de-gasification.
Yeah. That Loop business, it's important to remember it's not just a drilling business. We're actually offering a full service to the clients, integrating health, safety management, operational environmental risk. We're actually dynamic gas modeling engineering work. We're looking at what their potential safeguard liability is going to be, helping them with those submissions, as well as actually doing the drilling in the field, potentially gathering gas, amongst other things. It is a genuine full service offering to those clients to assist them with their safeguard missions, reporting, and management. As Nathan says, a very technical and different type of drilling, which so far has gone fantastically well.
Thank you. Next question. This one's for you, Nathan. With the transition year in FY2025, can you provide any commentary on how you're thinking about the final year then with only one quarter to go?
Obviously, I think we've had a fairly—you can see the numbers. They're not a great number coming out of Christmas. Looking at the last two, January, February, it's not great. March was a much better month for us, as I said before, swallowing all those issues that we had and then having the extended rain, which sounds like a broken record. You look at the numbers, they're not great. We would hope and we expect the next quarter to be much better. I think we'll just have to see how good it is. Based at the end of the year, I think it's a moving target at the moment, just based on where things have been in the last three months. I can't say at this stage until we look at the next month and the month after that.
Thanks, Nathan. A question from Tom. Can you comment on what you think a steady state EBITDA margin for the business should look like at the plus 70 rig operating run rate given the expanded service mix?
I think the best way to answer that is just to go back in time and look at the previous financial year where it was around that level. I think from memory, Greg, it was probably high teens. We have always spoken to everyone and said from an aspirational perspective, we would like to be 20% plus EBITDA. Obviously, putting in specialist drilling like the decarbonisation drilling can help you achieve those numbers. Some of the specialist geotech work that we do on various projects like Snowy Hydro scheme or other specialist geotech projects like Sydney Metro, those things, they come and go. It is highly specialist work with good returns. We are always trying to get that percentage up. It can make a big difference to us.
Obviously, when that number of rigs is running, there's good leverage in the business, and those additional rigs are dropping down to your EBITDA because you've got your overheads covered. Yeah, I would say that realistically, high teens is a good number to work to, but would we like to do better? Of course, we would. Have we done better? In some quarters we have. Yeah, from a modelling perspective and looking out, high teens.
Thanks, Andrew. A question from Brandon. Can you speak to the competitive environment for drilling?
Can we talk to that? I think it's probably been a tough six months for most drilling contractors. I think we were in a very good position with our debt piece and buying the equipment when we did and paying it off. I think others are struggling just with where the world is at the moment between China, U.S., Russia, all the other things. If we think about what's happened in the last six months, the world's turned over probably three times in such a short period of time. We forget about that, that excess coal has been flowing from Russia to China, subduing prices. In a perfect world, I think we would, yes, we'd be at a normal run rate, but it's far from perfect at the moment.
Overall, I think we're seeing our competitors are probably not as good a position as we are in order to sort of weather this. We've been able to move pretty quickly from coal to minerals, as we've seen. Obviously, we've got to go through a dip to come back out. Fundamentally, I think we're better than our competitors. We're certainly in a better position for our competitors. I think for that, it'll be a better short term, it'll be better for us than others, I think.
Thank you, Nathan. Another question from Daniel. This one's for you, Greg. Can you clarify when cash tax payments will recommence with the utilisation of COVID era instant asset write-offs?
Yeah. Just in summary and just taking a look back during that COVID period, all those LF160s as well as other CapEx was purchased in those years whereby we were allowed to write it off instantly from a tax perspective. We did that and hence have not paid tax over the past number of years. As is highlighted in the annual report, it is essentially a temporary difference, not a permanent difference. With the losses associated with those write-offs having been fully utilised at the end of June 2024, we will now be in a scenario where there will effectively be a depreciation add-back from a tax perspective. The FY2025 tax return will be the first sort of tax-paying year, I suppose.
The easiest way to think about how that works, at least for the next couple of years, is there'll be approximately AUD 12 million of accounting depreciation that will not be allowed as a tax expense because it previously has been under the instant asset write-off. Make your own assumptions around accounting profit before tax and then add back the AUD 12 million in depreciation will give you the taxable income upon which tax will be paid.
Thanks, Greg. A question from Roger. What are the like-for-like rates on contracts being won now versus a year ago?
I think probably first off, worth pointing out that all legacy contracts with old rates, pre sort of inflation spike, have been reset. There's no old legacy contracts out there now. To be honest, rates are probably flat. I think typical contract length on the mine sites that we work at are sort of three years plus minus. Most of those contracts have rise and fall clauses contained within them on the anniversary of the contract. You may get an inflation increase. Shorter contracts, one year, two year, maybe fixed rates for one or two years. Really, to answer the question, I'd say the rates are probably flat, but you're getting inflation. The primary increase in costs that we foresee in the year ahead is probably labor more than anything, to be honest.
Thanks, Andrew. Another question from Brandon. Back on Loop. Can you provide some more color around how the current Loop contracts has exceeded expectations?
I certainly think that there were question marks about the ability of the rig because obviously the rig is sitting in the pit of the coal mine. There were question marks about the ability of the rig to drill through the face in broken ground and bad ground and then get out and drill a good well without any issues. We overcame that. Question marks on some of the techniques and methodology which have been proven before. We have got across those. Drilled quicker than we thought as well. The quality of the data that we are getting and providing to the client, excellent. The overall service of the team with some of that reporting, engineering, and other things has been very good too. All in all, very, very happy.
The performance of the rig, given it's a new type of rig that we've got, has been excellent too. Sometimes you get a new type of rig and you're a bit nervous that it may not perform, but this one has had negligible issues. All those little things that make a difference to provide a good service to the client have been positives. It's a small industry. Everyone's pretty close and the word has spread, which is a really positive thing that it's been really good. That bodes well for the future.
Perfect. Thank you. Final question on the chat here. Any update on the buyback?
No, nothing at the moment. No. The price is fairly low, as we all know, but not at this stage. I think based on our numbers, I think we sit tight and focus on being a better drilling business going into the last quarter.
Yeah. I think it's worth adding that there's been, I think, Greg, probably AUD 4 million of shareholder returns so far this financial year from the final dividend from previous year plus buybacks.
Yeah, about that, if you include the final from the previous year.
That has been made this financial year such. Then to Nathan's point, we've got to see the business delivering some impact. Then we'll have some more money to decide what to do with it. Then it's up to Nathan and the rest of the board to decide what they do. Got to just keep delivering some decent numbers into the last quarter and then hopefully give the board a good problem to think about.
Thanks, Andrew. That's the last of the questions now. If there are any further questions, please, yeah, top of your mind, I'll quickly address them with the team. I think that concludes today's webinar. Andrew, Nathan, Greg, thank you very much. As Andrew said, research is covered by Q-Value and Morgans.
If there are any questions, feel free to reach out to myself and I can sort of revert back to management. This is also being recorded, so I'll come back to you individually with the recording. Again, thank you, guys. The update.
Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
Thanks, Alan.