OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Jan 31, 2024

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

All right. A very good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining OM Holdings Quarterly Investor Webinar this morning. Now, my name is Jenny from the IR department of OM Holdings. Together with me is Richie, and we will be hosting the quarterly webinars moving forward. Now, OM Holdings is a manganese and silicon smelting company with vertical exposure in mining and trading. So with me today also is Joint Group Financial Controller, Eugene Tan. He will run through the key updates following the release of our Q4 2023 production and market update. The presentation will then be followed by a Q&A session. So if you would like to submit a question during the webinar, please use the Q&A function at the bottom of your screen. If we are unable to present your questions to Eugene, we'll attempt to address the query post the webinar.

Without further ado, I'm pleased to hand over to Eugene, who will present the Q4 key updates. Eugene, over to you.

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Yeah, hi. Thanks. Thanks, Jenny. Thanks for the nice, short introduction. A very good morning and to everybody, and thank you everyone for dialing in and taking time off to attend our webinar. This is our first presentation for 2024. We will try to update you with everything that's happened in the final quarter of 2023, which has-- which we have just closed. I think, you know, without any further ado, let's basically start off with our usual updates. Next slide, please. Okay.

I think to start off on the corporate front, we have completed a share subscription agreement in the early part of December with JFE Shoji, which is one of our trade partners that has been with us for, I think more than 20 years. And for this transaction, that was for consideration of AUD 13 million, where we issued with about 27.6 million shares to JFE at an issue price of AUD 0.472 per share. I think the announcement was also released on the ASX, I think if I remember correctly, on the first of December 2023.

So, for those investors and shareholders who have not or want more information about this, I think you can check out the announcement as well. I think a lot of our shareholders would know that this coincides with the end of a long-term loan that JFE Shoji has had with the company since the inception of the OM Sarawak smelter project. With this transaction, I think we continue to strengthen the relationship that we have with JFE for further developments and partnerships down the road.

I think you go to the top middle box. I think you could see that we have also repurposed our silicon metal furnaces for production of ferrosilicon, and this is still ongoing, as we have previously communicated with our shareholders and our investors. We are looking to commence our silicon metal production for one furnace, I think in the first half of 2024. The reason why we're doing this, basically, is to ensure that all the technical capabilities are ready, we don't get any surprises, and that we stagger the commissioning of the two metallic silicon furnaces in the first half of 2024.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, I think in accordance with our milestone payment plans, we have also repaid approximately $9.3 million to our project finance lenders for the Sarawak project as part of our regular utilization of the project finance debt. Okay, I think these are generally some of the quick updates, basically on the corporate front. We move on to the production side. Okay, so in terms of production, I think shareholders and investors will note that we have actually delivered production in accordance with our guidance, and we have actually revised our guidance in 2023 as well.

I think with that, we closed the guidance with ferroalloy production at OM Sarawak, exceeding 400,000 tons, with a total final number of, let's see, I think about 434,000 tons for FY 2023. I think that's you can, you can see that basically on the left-hand side, the bar chart basically. With that, we also managed to catch up in the last quarter of 2023, with shipments more or less coinciding with the total production of ferroalloys in Sarawak. Okay. I think we also want to take this opportunity to update shareholders on our intention relating to the restart of the Ultra Fines Plant at OMF in the UFP at OMF, which is our Australian subsidiary.

We're looking to restart this, and we're preparing to launch, tentatively by the end of 2024. So things are all ongoing at this point in time to get this project on track. One thing to note for FY 2024, this is our initial guidance that you can see on the screen, on the left-hand side, the dotted bars. We're looking to outperform what we've achieved in 2023.... Okay? Given that prices have constantly declined since the peak during the COVID super cycle, we expect that for 2024, we would-- we will see stronger performance, I think both from the production as well as a recoveries from market prices. Next slide, please. Thank you.

In this slide, I think here we actually see the plans and the breakdown of our FY 2024 guidance against what we achieved in 2023. We expect to perform at least an output of about 430,000 tons for 2024. And of course, this would then include our silicon metal furnaces production volumes as well, which will be within the range of about zero to two, meaning zero at the start of the year, zero furnaces at the start of the year, and two furnaces by the end of 2024. I think throughout the year, we expect to produce at or, you know, close to 85% capacity utilization, with the high end of the range being closer to about 90%.

Okay, we'll take you to the next two slides. I think in the next two slides, we will generally touch briefly on the silicon and the manganese alloy market, just as an update to our shareholders. I think for a lot of our shareholders, I think if you look at the ferrosilicon price charts, you would know that we have set for a very long time. Now that prices have declined as they have, they will generally find new natural landing spot, which in I think in the last two to three months or so, we have observed ferrosilicon prices remaining firmly above the $1,200 levels, skewing more towards the $1,300 levels.

We also note that in FY 2023, prices overall have declined by over 20%, as evidenced by the last 23 months ferrosilicon prices, which was published by S&P Platts. From our point of view, we believe we are in a recovery phase, with production declining around the world, both in Europe as well as in Russia. Next slide. Moving on from ferrosilicon, I think we can see that for manganese alloys, the trend very much remains the same as for ferrosilicon. With both the ore as well as the silicomanganese prices declining over 20%, about 20%, for the full 12 months of FY 2023.

We also note that for silicon manganese, silicomanganese in particular, I apologize, the decline, it declined by about 26%, which is, roughly about 5% more than manganese ore, and, this has compressed margins, basically. If we move into 2024, I think we firmly believe the supply and demand factors will rebalance, and the pre-COVID trend will, generally reestablish itself. Looking at the price chart for silicomanganese in particular, I think for the last about six to seven months, we can see that it has actually tested the price floor of around, U.S. $850, twice, and most recently rebounded in the last, two to three months as well.

We believe a lot of our competitors are facing challenges competing and producing at this level, at this price level, and it will remain a near-term support level for silicomanganese prices, we believe. Against the backdrop of all these cost pressures, we've also observed that competing countries of origin are generally importing less ore in the near term. On the demand side, demand from our Asian home markets remain robust. We also see firm demand from Southeast Asia and also from the mature East Asian economies, like Korea and Japan, basically. We also note that while steel production has been very less depressed globally in 2023, most forecasters expect some form of recovery to happen in 2024.

So I think in general, for this year, for 2024, we believe the destocking for silicomanganese and, you know, more generally for ferroalloys, has about run its course, and we are confident that we are positioned for a recovery from that front. I think that generally takes me to the end of this very quick presentation and short update in terms of what has transpired in the last three months. I think with this last slide, I think I'm just going to leave. I think it—not having, not take more time in terms of the presentation, which I think shareholders will have the opportunity to go back and read. I think we're just going to leave a little bit more time for Q&A. But I think in general, nothing has changed.

Our story remains very much the same, you know? Basically, the focus is still on strong margins, very stable foundations that we have, and the focus is just on strong organic growth plans, basically. We will continue to remain the prime beneficiaries in this high-price power cost environment, with our PPA. The world is also starting to put a price on carbon, so the hydropower that we are, you know, utilizing in Samalaju, I think, while currently that is not being monetizable, that will increasingly, increasingly become even more of an asset to the company moving forward. Okay, I think I will stop here and leave some time for question and answers. Thank you.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

All right. Thank you very much, Eugene, for your presentation. Now we will move on to the Q&A session. So the first question relates on hedging policies. So does OMH implement any hedging policies on ferroalloy prices?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Thank you. We get asked this a lot, actually, from various people. I think, Jenny, the simple answer to that is no. We generally do not have any hedging policies on the ferroalloy prices. Well, there are no international futures market for ferroalloys, right? The futures market that is in China is not directly relevant because of the taxes that are imposed at both the import and export fronts. Although, you know, they are commonly used within China domestically, right? So, I would say, I think the answer to this would be no, we have not implemented any hedging policies for ferroalloy prices.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

All right. Thank you, Eugene. And the next question relates to Tshipi and Bryah. So how much actually does OM... Does the manganese supply to OMH, does Tshipi and Bryah contribute to?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Tshipi, Tshipi and Bryah, manganese ore supply?

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Yes, that's right.

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

I think Tshipi's manganese ore supply is primarily traded and exported to China for which OM earns basically a fixed commission. It is. I would say it is occasionally shipped to Sarawak for our internal own consumption but I think the volume is not significant in the scheme of things. The reason being that logistically, I think it's not so efficient. So, I think the annual traded volume for Tshipi ore is, if my memory serves me right, around 420,000 tons-460,000 tons per annum. So yeah, that's for Tshipi. I think Bryah, well, for Bryah, I think Bryah is still under the... is still currently under the exploration phase.

I would have to say that currently there is no production coming out from Bryah at this point in time, as we speak.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Right. All right. Thanks, Eugene. That's very clear. So the third question actually relates to our report from Q4. That's on the decline in sales and of ore and alloys volume. So 36% fall looks rather big. Is there any specific reason for that decline?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Yeah, I think 36% is, I mean, it's quite a huge chunk. I think generally, at... Well, this relates to, basically, you know, the volume of ores and the volume of alloys that are traded basically within the year. It's mainly due to lower volume of manganese ores traded, and this is not fully in line with the decline in Tshipi's production in Q4 as well. We think there was a decline of roughly about 26%, 27.6% or 27%, about 20%, roughly 27% decline in the Q4 production. We also see a decline in volumes from our off-take partners, that's Element 25, basically given the current market pressures.

I think having said that, the total sales for both ores and alloys has actually increased by 32% year-on-year for the full year of 2023. I think for FY 2023, volumes were like about 1.9 million, versus FY 2022 of I think it was just under 1.5 million tons per annum.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Great. Thank you, Eugene. So I think that's very clear. So overall, compared to last year, the full year volume of ores and alloys traded stood 32% higher, you mentioned, right?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Yes, that's right.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

All right. Okay. All right, moving on to the next question. So, this one relates to shipments. Will there be any more shipments carried forward to the first quarter of 2024, similar, like what happened in the last quarter in 2023?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Yeah. Thanks, Jenny. Yeah, I think, well, this is something that I think for all suppliers that ships internationally, I think it's something that we all face. Shipments will generally always roll over naturally, with several days of delay for vessels, especially if they're looking towards the year end. I think the company's policy is generally to hold, not to hold excessive inventory towards the year end. There are things that basically we do not have control over. You know, natural slips could occur due to things like port congestion, you know, I don't know, title issues. You know, these are things that actually are things that basically we do not have control over.

But slips like that do generally occur, and for the year end of 2023, I think there would be some, but I don't think that it is expected to have any significant impacts to the, to the-

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Right. Okay. And for our next question, also relating to shipment.

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Mm-hmm.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Do you foresee any increment in the shipping cost? And if yes, what is the strategy for management to overcome this?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Thanks for the question. Yeah. I think, you know, shipment cost, something that is, that is, faced by all exporters, more or less equally, right? And, basically, that, that, that shipment cost will eventually be passed on to customers and, will also be reflected in the, the CIF price, the CIF price. So, I think in, in, in general, our strategy, basically is just to maximize our net returns. And as such, we have, and as a result, we have then focused on, Southeast Asia as a region. I think our freight will always be relatively lower as, if we, if the focus is Southeast Asia, I think our freight will always be relatively lower when compared against, our competitors in the same way.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Right. Right. So the strategy is to really maximize return-

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Yeah.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

-and focus around the mostly on the Southeast Asia region, right? Okay. All right, the next question is relatively straightforward. So, will... Are we expecting all 16 furnaces to be up and running in the first quarter of 2024?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Yeah. I think this is probably something a lot of shareholders are wanting. You know, we've, we've been short of running 16 furnaces for quite a while now, for various reasons, you know, ma-major maintenance, so on and so forth. I think for, for... Well, we'll see, will 16 furnaces be up and running in Q2 2024? I think we expect about 14-15 furnaces to be running at full capacity in the, the first quarter of this year. But having said that, I do believe we are taking into consideration things like, you know, furnace maintenance, furnace recommissioning, and also keeping in mind that, we will also be preparing one metallic silicon furnace for, recommissioning in the first half of 2024.

I think in short, I would say for Q1, we are expecting about between 14-15 furnaces to be running at full capacity within this quarter itself.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

All right. Thank you, Eugene, for that. The next question relates to dividend. Is there any possible increments in dividend?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Thanks for this question. Yeah, I think we are currently, you know, so we are currently going through the year-end audit, finalizing our numbers with the auditors. So in terms of the final year, full year numbers, it's not, I would say it's not finalized. We're almost there, it's not finalized yet. But I think having said that and looking at it from, you know, the dividends perspective, I think we've always stood by this. I think the dividend payout will always be based on the dividend policy that we've announced, I think sometime in the early part of last year. And we will continue to stand by that basically, right?

Generally, it should fall between, I think, 10%-30% of the group's NPAT that is attributed to our owners. Of course, that will be subjected to a cap of 50% free cash flow and also other considerations. Well, whatever is proposed by management has then to be approved by the board as well. So yeah. So any decisions in terms of dividends will only be announced after the full year financial results is finalized. And that should be roughly available around, I think by the end of February.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

All right. Thank you, Eugene. So, maybe just a reminder to shareholders, we actually made the announcement on our dividend policy just last year. You may refer to the announcement for more details, and the announcement is actually made on 28th February 2023, to be exact. Also our next financial results, sorry, will be out by end February. Right, Eugene?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Yes, that's right.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Yes. All right. Now, I think we have time for just one last question, and this one is on tax exemption. So any updates on the tax exemption, Eugene?

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Yeah. Before I start, I think I just want to thank and show my appreciation for our shareholders who've been very patient with us from this angle. I think this question has been also one of the very hot questions that have been asked by many people relating to our tax exemption. As it stands right now, I think there are no changes to the status of the prior tax exemption yet. I think just as a reminder to our shareholders, and especially those shareholders who are new... Why is the first five-year tax exemption different from the second five-year exemption? I think the conditions for the first five years tax exemption was basically an investment condition, basically, right?

So which means that once you, you've put in the investment, you've done the investment, basically, right, by default, you would then have met the requirements and be eligible for the first five-year tax exemption. For the second five-year tax exemption, it's a little bit different. The conditions and targets are a little bit different. Basically, this has got to do with, you know, things like ongoing compliance, the company's ongoing efforts to develop the local suppliers, the contribution to the local employment environment, which all these targets are basically very forward-looking targets. But having said that, I think we have been working very hard with the authorities on this, and suffice to say, I think we are confident that we are a...

We will be able to satisfy all these requirements. You know, I think it's something that shareholders wants to know, because I think the exemptions will actually impact our NPAT, you know, quite significantly in that sense. So, with that, I think we will continue to keep our shareholders and investors abreast of the development, especially on this tax exemption front, whenever we get the opportunity.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Great.

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Thanks.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Thank you. Thanks, Eugene, for that answer. Now, that appears to cover the majority of the questions from our audience today. So, but if you do have any other further questions, please forward them to investor.relations@ommaterials.com. We will make a recording of this webinar available through our OM Holdings LinkedIn page in the coming days. Now, this concludes our webinar for today. Thank you, everyone, for attending, and thank you, Eugene, for the comprehensive update.

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

Thank you, everyone, for attending. Thanks, Jenny. Thanks.

Jenny Voon
Senior Executive of Corporate Communications, OM Holdings

Thanks, all.

Eugene Tan
Joint Group Financial Controller, OM Holdings

See you.

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