From our Singapore office. He will run through the key updates following the release of OMQ's Q3 2023 production and market update. The presentation will then be followed by a Q&A session. If you would like to submit a question during the webinar, please use the Q&A function at the bottom of your screen. If we are unable to present your question to Adrian, we will attempt to address the query post the webinar. Without further ado, I'm pleased to hand over to Adrian, who will present the Q3 key updates. Adrian, over to you.
Okay, thanks, Jenny, and, thanks, everyone, for dialing in this morning. We're here to present our Q3 quarterly updates and a few, you know, address a few of the burning questions that we've received from investors. So without further ado, I'm just jumping into the update. I think, you know, most investors would have seen announcement that went out yesterday on the SSA that has been executed for the sale of OMQ. So again, just to remind everyone, you know, we announced this a couple months ago, and we are selling 9% of the equity interest in OMQ for $25 million, and this will, our new partners will be Kunpeng in China.
We will retain 10% strategic interest in OMQ, in order to have this kind of collaboration with the new entity as we guide them towards a smooth commissioning. So to that end, I think, you know, we'll be providing raw material supply as well as marketing services for the products. And, you know, I think, seeing as that we've just signed SSA, I think this will be completed in a couple of months' time. Otherwise, I think in Q3, in terms of production and what's been going on in Sarawak, things have largely remained the same. I think I spoke earlier this year about the need to manage costs and increase efficiencies in a downward market, and I think, you know, that still remains true.
So if you look at what we've done, in terms of, the two silicon metal furnaces, they have been run on ferrosilicon, and they are still producing ferrosilicon today. And we have also managed to increase, the manganese alloy production, volumes. And so if you look at the guidance numbers, you know, that's all been updated, and, I think on the top end, we are expecting something above 400,000 tons, for the calendar year. Okay? And in Q3, again, as usual, we repaid $9.3 million to, project finance lenders, and we'll continue to do so, as we, you know, in parallel, look at sort of refinancing and, sort of, debt options, amidst, what's happening now in the rates market.
So I think that there, there isn't a lot of visibility, on, on what the most, optimal path ought to be, but, we will continue tracking that and, you know, look to progressing something perhaps in the first half of next year. But having said that, you know, I think all, all options are still on the table. In terms of smelting, I think, you know, the numbers, number of smelters, sorry, furnaces that are operating, are on the slide. I will not read through them. They also, provided in greater detail in our announcement. So fabrication works from metallic silicon furnaces, that's ongoing, and, we do expect these furnaces to restart in stages, in early 2024. Okay?
So moving on, I think, you know, if you look at the 2023 revised volumes, you know, on the top end, we are looking at something around 430,000 tons, and I think, you know, we will most likely end up above 400,000 tons. The full range of numbers, you know, have just been provided there, to be consistent with what we've been announcing, throughout the year. You know, looking toward the future, the plans remain the same. I think for next year, we will be able to complete phases I through III, ending with metallic silicon, and again, you know, in future, we will be looking towards building the two new 33 MVA furnaces. Okay.
So moving on, I think, you know, some questions that we've received are of a lot of the questions we've received have been around, you know, what's going on in the market, when do we expect things to change? And, you know, how our pricing looks like. And so, you know, obviously to that, I think we have to respond with this truth is, the market is the market. But I think we can still, you know, give some commentary around ferrosilicon and manganese alloy markets. And I think for the ferrosilicon side, what is true is that on the supply side of ferrosilicon that has been incredibly volatile.
And so, you know, we have seen sort of severe supply cutbacks in China, only to see that sort of retrace, you know, in the last couple of months. But globally, I think more generally speaking, we have seen supply reduction in Europe, we have seen supply reduction in Russia, and so I think, you know, on the global front, the picture is, is perhaps a bit different from how things look like just from a pure China kind of context. And I think, you know, if you see that kind of zigzag pattern in supply, actually what's, I guess, what's sort of playing out in the background is changes in the prices of raw materials.
I think this is one of the questions that we had, but I think if you look at the cost of producing ferrosilicon, in, say, January this year, compared to what it would cost us to produce ferrosilicon, in December, you know, I'd say that's, that's, that's a cost reduction, in an order of magnitude of, you know, $100-$200. So that, that is, that is a sizable cost reduction, and I think, you know, we ill continue to sort of optimize costs, and, and not, you know, pursue, any kind of production strategy too aggressively, but just, keep pace with the market, both in terms of raw material, and in terms of sales. So that's ferrosilicon. Moving on to manganese alloys.
You know, I think, there's a very similar picture here between manganese alloys and ferrosilicon, with the one key difference being, you know, the country in question. So, so, so for manganese alloys, I think, you know, looking at Indian output and production, that has remained, you know, stuck around for much longer than we expected.
Looking back, you know, the only way to sort of rationalize and understand this is that, with the amount of margins that have been made in 2021 and 2022, well, first quarter of 2022, and the amount of financing that has entered the space that has propped up, you know, a certain amount of raw materials and products circulating in the market, that credit expansion has taken a much longer time to digest than we anticipated. And I think, you know, you have to think about this against the backdrop of expanding steel market in India. You know, steel making in India, I think is one of the only bright spots this year in terms of steel production.
And so as that steel production grows, you know, so does alloy production, and it just happens that they're not really in lockstep at the moment. It just happens that through the sort of boom years of 2021, there has been an overinvestment in alloy production capacity, and we're just seeing that sort of moderate right now as we approach the end of 2023. So I think, you know, again, unfortunately, I have to say this, that we're not out of the woods yet. But we do see signs that, you know, as we approach December, that's the end of the financial year, we do see signs that, you know, a lot of people are sort of making an effort to reduce inventory ahead of calendar close, our financial year end.
And so that gives us some optimism that, you know, Q1 next year would be much better than, than what we're seeing right now in the market. One other news is outside of India. I would, you know, hazard to say, the world's largest manganese alloys smelter in Ukraine has recently just stopped. So they were continuing production through the war, you know, capacity of over 1 million tons. You know, even though they were running only a fraction of, of total capacity, that volume is now removed from the market as well. So I think, you know, this is, this is not new to us. I think, you know, we've been in this industry for a long time, and these cycles come and go.
The key thing is to know where our cost position is, and I think we're incredibly fortunate to be where we are, you know, in the cost curve. And to be able to expand production and thereby sort of increase efficiencies and lower overheads even with the market being in such a tough environment. So, you know, this is the most important thing that I think we should leave with investors, and that is that, you know, it's always about the five-year average and not about the instantaneous market condition. So if you look at just the, sorry, the alloy prices, I should have mentioned this for ferrosilicon, but it's not too different. The nine months average price for 2023 was $988.
If you look at, you know, our website, we post weekly price updates. You know, the first number is 8. It's not, it's not starting with a 9. And, you know, even with the first three months, first three quarters, sorry, there was almost 30% year-on-year decline. So, you know, I think investors might have heard me say this before, but when ore and alloy sort of declines at the same rate, we do still have to consume the ore, you know, two or three months after it's been purchased. So there's this natural lag effect, that will only reverse when things stabilize, and/or when we see kind of volatility in both the ore and alloy market prices. And so, you know, that's, that's what we're looking out for.
Okay, with that, I think, you know, we've come to the end of the presentation. I'm just gonna leave more time for Q&A. But, you know, the story remains the same. Strong margins, very stable foundations off of which we're operating. We will remain prime beneficiaries of, you know, this high-price power cost environment. And, the world, you know, starting to put a price on carbon. So the hydropower that we're using in Samalaju will increasingly, while not currently monetizable, but will increasingly become, you know, an asset, even more of an asset to the company. So yes, I think I'll stop there and just leave time for questions.
All right. Thank you, Adrian, for the presentation. We will now move on to the Q&A session. The first question, Steve, is on MetSi . And Dave, could you provide a precise update on MetSi and the outlook for 2024?
So, yeah, updates on metallic silicon. Look, I think, what's happening right now is, we have a good understanding of, of, what's happened in the furnace and, you know, what I spoke earlier about, the de-dedusting and temperature controls and all of that. We have got the new set of, superintendents, metallurgists, en route to Sarawak, and, we are very confident of, you know, launching that in, in, early 2024. In terms of the physical, you know, fabrication, what's happening on site, so what is happening is metallic silicon furnaces are producing 99% silicon, and so they're a lot less forgiving than ferrosilicon furnaces.
And because of that, the furnaces have to rotate, because in a ferrosilicon furnace, you know, sort of free iron units can circulate very freely and, you know, distribute heat and improve reactions. But in a silicon metal furnace, the furnace has to physically rotate, and so that it's... The rotation mechanism is part of one of the key areas that we are fabricating. And so that is actually ongoing. And so that has no impact on what we're actually doing with the furnace, which is producing ferrosilicon. And so once both these pieces fall in place, we will be able to restart and reestablish the commissioning process with metallic silicon.
All right, thanks, Adrian. I think that covers one of the questions on MetSi fabrication workflow. So the next question relates also to MetSi. It says that in our report, it is mentioned that both MetSi furnaces will recommend start commissioning by next year. Does this imply that ferrosilicon will cease production during this phase?
Yes. Yes, absolutely. So, what happens in a metallic silicon conversion is we will gradually step up the purity of raw materials, reduce the iron units, turn on rotation, and adjust sort of the power input. And so what that will do is you will sort of see a step up from 75% purity to 85% - 90%, and then, you know, from the 90%- 99% range, then that might take a week or two. And so, you know, I think it would probably take something like a month to complete the conversion from 100% ferrosilicon to 100% metallic silicon. So this is a bit different from what we were attempting to do earlier this year, where it was a cold start. Now, we are moving from ferrosilicon to metallic silicon.
It's a hot start. You know, throughout this period of time, obviously, we will be producing products of a wide variety of ranges. You know, and we have full confidence that we will be able to place that into the market, in any case.
Thanks, Adrian. Now, the next question is, when do you expect to operate all 16 furnaces?
Right. So that's a great question. I mean, we are close to operating all 16 furnaces right now, in fact. And so I think, you know, with the last maintenance out of the way, early next year, we should be in full operation by, I'd say, Q1.
All right. Thanks, Adrian. Now, we received a few questions on sustainability, specifically on carbon reduction initiatives, and whether OM has any plans on having sustainable plantations to harvest for the company's overall productions. The new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism being introduced in E.U. was also mentioned, and whether this has any impact on us.
Okay, so that's quite a few questions in one. Let's address the CBAM one first, because that's you know, fresh on my mind. Look, CBAM reporting is now mandatory for anyone who imports manganese alloys into Europe. So a lot of our customers have been requesting for you know, Scope 1, Scope 2 emission data. This year, our sustainability report comes with assurance, so those numbers have been verified by you know, a third party. It's not just what we say what we're emitting. A lot of customers in the U.S. that have these requirements have also now you know, requested information on this.
I think, you know, on the CBAM side, we will obviously benefit from having a lower Scope 2 footprint. Circling back to what you asked, the first bit of the question, you know, what are we doing in terms of actually reducing that footprint? I think for Scope 2, right, very, very practically, one of the points that was on the slide was heat recovery. Heat recovery, what that means is, you know, we have mentioned this in the past, but I think we have seen that this technology has matured in China and Europe.
And you know, around the time of plants, the sort of two new furnaces, what we call Plant C, or after, we will be planning to build a system to tap on all the waste heat and thereby generate enough power. And so based on initial estimates, this is estimated to be 40 megawatts. And so if you think about it, the sort of carbon footprint of that is 100% identical to what we're producing now, right? The amount of carbon that's being emitted in the atmosphere is exactly the same. So on a unit kilowatt-hour basis, we will be able to lower that Scope 2 emissions.
In terms of Scope 1, so the second part of the question in terms of, you know, forestry management, that sort of thing, that's something we've talked about in the past as well. And, you know, and sort of related, but not directly, not quite the same, this year we announced rewilding. And so, look, I think, without sort of jumping the gun, we are working on something. I think, it's, at this point in time, sort of premature to announce, but we are working on mimicking how some of the other plants in Europe and South America, you know, how they are managing their own sort of sustainable source of wood for producing charcoal, and, and how that charcoal can end up in furnaces in a very, very controlled and sustainable way.
So that's all in progress, and I think, you know, we will look forward to updating the market when that is released.
Thank you, Adrian. That is quite a handful of information there. All right, the next question is: What is the ideal configuration and future direction, considering now that, one, ferrosilicon is more profitable than manganese alloys, and two, considering the demand from LMG, assuming they will consume OM's entire basic production?
Yeah, that's right. So that's right. Look, LMG, so I mean, for those who don't know, LMG, Latrobe Magnesium, is a company that's, you know, based in Australia, and they are commissioning a magnesium plant. It's a very interesting technology where they're sort of recycling waste and, you know, production of magnesium is mainly consumes ferrosilicon as a reductant. And so it's almost like you can call it a one-to-one consumption. So, you know, I've been speaking to them for the last—I'd like to say seven years. And so, you know, we're very pleased that, you know, this is finally going ahead. But if that does happen, it will obviously, you know, change completely the way we look at the product mix.
So I think, you know, all options are on the table. We do not rule out, with Plan C, the two new furnaces commissioning. We do not rule out post-commissioning that some of the existing furnaces that should be reconverted if, you know, those products prove to be more profitable. So obviously, you know, we will look at everything, but the information at this point in time does not lean in any direction.
Thanks, Adrian. The next question relates to the Malaysian tax. Any decision for the additional five years exemption?
Yes. So, yeah, thanks for that. I think we get this question, every, every webinar. But, look, you know, we appreciate shareholders' patience on this. What is currently provided now, in our financials is we are booking in the full, tax value, and, we have, you know—So obviously that will be reversed, as in when we receive a final, written approval from authorities. Our understanding right now is that, the ball is in their court. You know, the last interaction with them, was a consultation session, actually, just, last month. And, and sort of final report of, of, you know, the, the conditions, that have been set out.
So, again, just to remind, shareholders and investors, the reason why this is quite different from the first five years is the conditions for the first five years was an investment condition. And so once you've invested, then you, you know, by default, met the requirements. The second set of five years has to do with ongoing compliance and ongoing efforts to develop local suppliers to, you know, contribute to local employment. And so that's, that's something that's a forward-looking target. And, so we are, you know, we have been working with the authorities on giving them satisfaction that, you know, we will be able to satisfy all the requirements.
I think, you know, once that is in place, probably, you know, we're in November now, so probably by, you know, early next year, we will be able to look at reviewing those numbers and reversing them from our financials.
Great. Thanks, Adrian. The next question relates to our dividend policy. Whether this will be implemented as we announced earlier, and what could the company do to increase dividend payout?
Yeah. So, look, what we announced earlier this year, our sort of maiden dividend policy, is a range of 10%-30% profit after tax. And so we will stick to that policy. You know, the objective, when the board approved the policy, was to have something that's sustainable, that will give shareholders some kind of reward, you know, through the market cycles. And, you know, in terms of increasing that percentage payout, I think that is not currently feasible, because that dividend policy was designed for growth phase, right? Post-growth, so post new furnaces and post heat recovery, I think, you know, that will warrant management and the board to reexamine the dividend policy and then look at distributing more cash flows to shareholders.
I think that's, that's definitely part of the plan. We're just not in a position at this point in time, you know, to relook at that, you know, especially given current market conditions.
All right. Thank you, Adrian. And I think we have time for just one last question. So could you explain more on the timing of major maintenance? And should the company consider continuing major maintenance until completion when alloy prices are low now?
Okay, so look, I mean, yeah, so I think we've had variations of this, you know, set of questions in the past and around the timing of, you know, major maintenance and sort of timing the markets, if you will. So, look, I mean, the answer to that is, you have to do maintenance when you have to do maintenance. I think the only thing that we have sort of really postponed was in 2021, when, you know, ferrosilicon was $4,000, and then manganese alloys was, I don't know, above $1,500. We postponed major maintenance for 12-18 months and really pushed the furnaces to the limits.
So obviously after that, regardless of what happens to the market, then you have to do maintenance. So that, that's sort of the backdrop of what's been happening since 2021, right? So major maintenance has been, as, as, you know, investors and analysts know, has been going on through 2022 to 2023. And the reason why, you know, we keep hearing about it and why it's so stretched out, is we, we have to stop furnaces progressively, and we can't just stop, you know, a big chunk of production, for, for two reasons. One, we do have a take-or-pay power contract. You have to smooth out power consumption.
And two, it doesn't help the market and doesn't help, you know, with, with building the OM brand to have, you know, to be able to sell products in one quarter and not be able to sell products in another quarter. So I think that, that's sort of the reason why, you know, you're seeing all these things sort of pull, push out after 2021. So from 2022 and all the way till now. And so keeping in mind that, you know, it takes a couple of months for each furnace to be maintained, that's sort of the reason why it is the way it is, and then that's the why reason why it's been paced out and stretched out to 2024. So I hope that answers the question, Jenny.
Was there another bit of the question that I didn't get?
No, I think you covered the question. Yes.
Okay, great.
All right. So I think thank you, Adrian, for all the questions answered. That appears to cover the majority of the questions that we received from the audience today. If you do have any further questions, please forward them to investor.relations@ommaterials.com. We will be making a recording of this webinar available through our LinkedIn in the coming days. So this concludes our webinar for today. Thank you everyone for attending, and thank you, Adrian, for the comprehensive update.
Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for dialing in. Thanks, Jenny.