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Earnings Call: H2 2022

Feb 28, 2023

Nicola Gazzetti
Co-Founder of investor Relations, Corporate Storytime

Good morning, everyone. Thank you very much for attending today's OM Holdings investor webinar. My name is Nicola Gazzetti, and I'm co-founder of investor relations consultancy Corporate Storytime. OM Holdings Limited is a vertically integrated and low-cost manganese ore and ferroalloys producer, and yesterday announced its financial results for the year ended 31st of December, 2022. I am delighted to have OM Holdings Managing Director Adrian Low with me again today to run through an up-to-date investor presentation, which will then be followed by a Q&A session. Without any further ado, I am pleased to hand over to Adrian who will present his comprehensive update. Adrian, over to you.

Adrian Low
Managing Director, OM Holdings

Thanks, Nicola. Thank you everyone for dialing in today morning. You know, we're very pleased today to share our numbers for FY 2022. Without further ado, I'm just gonna jump straight into the numbers, you know, talk everyone through what's happened in the last 12 months- 18 months. For FY 2022, we did marginally better than FY 2021. Recorded about 10% growth in profit after tax to owners, arriving at a number of $67.8 million. EBITDA also increased in a commensurate manner, we achieved $163 million in FY 2022. Having said that, I think what was special about FY 2022 was the amount of cash that we generated from operations.

Investors and shareholders, that have been following the company will note that most of this cash, actually was generated in the second half. I think we've got sort of two effects, playing in here. One was just the cash flow, being generated from profitable operations obviously. The second effect came from a sort of, decompressing of working capital. Investors that have been, you know, following the company, following what we've done through COVID will understand that, a lot of, cash, was being deployed, in order to sort of keep our supply chains robust. This was then sort of resolved in FY 2022, and more so it's the second half, which is why I think you're seeing, cash generation, you know, coming in higher than what we did for EBITDA.

So that's sort of the broad overview of our numbers. I think something to take note of, and certainly something that, you know, it's a question that we're anticipating is the aspect of tax in the numbers for FY 2022. I think in our quarterly webinar a month ago, I shared that we have arrived at a set of conditions with MIDA and, you know, the company is confident of satisfying fulfilling those conditions before 2026. Having said that, we have provided for tax in FY 2022 until we get something in writing from the IRB, the Inland Revenue Bureau, together with MIDA.

If you look at those numbers, you know, I think we've recorded $23 million for FY 2022 compared to $2.5 in the prior year. You know, most of that gap can be explained by this provision. That's just something to take note, you know, when you're looking through those numbers. Okay. Looking at earnings for FY 2022, I think you have to see it in the context of price action, right? We did marginally better in FY 2022 compared to FY 2021, but if you look at the price of the products that we're producing, Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese, you will notice that for, you know, the calendar year 2022, both of these actually declined by about 10%-11%.

I think, you know, if I can just bring everyone back to how markets were in 2021, sorry. You know, I think we started the year in 2021 with sort of a nascent recovery. Prices started building momentum until they sort of hit a peak, mid-September 21, you know, with energy prices to China, India, lots of places, soaring. That came down. You know, bulk of the earnings came from the second half of FY 2021. A lot of that was carried over into FY 2022 as a result of, you know, the actions that the company has taken in order to sort of, you know, ride those gains.

You know, what we're seeing is, sort of, recovery in first half of 2021, good performance in second half of 2021. you know, that's carried over into 2022. then with the macro conditions and, sort of global demand, declining in the second half of FY 2022, we see prices decline and consequently earnings decline. now having said that, those numbers were still better than the first half of FY 2021, which sort of gives you know, the results that we're looking at today. so looking at the product markets, you know, I've sort of spoken about this in the last webinar, so I won't go too much into detail.

I think the sort of two key highlights would be that Ferrosilicon prices have been, you know, really flat for over four months. These are supported obviously by, you know, much higher Chinese costs compared to sort of pre-COVID costs and strengthening RMB. For Silicomanganese, you know, prices I think have been declining. Again, you know, sort of what's happening here in the background is supply overhang. Just looking at the price action, I think we're seeing, you know, signs of nascent recovery.

Having said that, I think, you know, if we look at the macro environment and what's happening around us, with interest rates still, you know, we expect interest rates to be elevated, you know, for the better part of this year. With demand being curtailed and with what's happening in China, also, you know, the war in Ukraine, you know, all these things are still weighing down on global demand. That sort of translates down into steel production numbers and consequently, down to demand for ferroalloys that we produce. I think we're not out of the woods yet, but, you know, I think we're seeing sort of optimistic signs in different parts of the market. I won't talk through all the numbers.

I think suffice to say, this year for FY 2023, we are guiding production to be more or less the same as FY 2022 as a base case. You know, I think we're sort of cautiously optimistic about bringing workers back in into Sarawak, you know, to be able to sort of restart more furnaces as these furnaces become available from Q2. They're not yet available now, but we expect them to be from Q2. That will be able to sort of, you know, give a bump to production from base case. That's it for, you know, general ferroalloy production. I will note at this point that, you know, the metallic silicon furnaces are still undergoing hot commissioning. You know, we have been able to produce successfully.

I think, you know, we see a few questions on that front, but we just haven't been able to, you know, achieve the optimal level of daily output that we're targeting for, and hence, you know, the commissioning has not been officially completed yet. Okay. You know, looking at revenue and sort of GP margins, I think, from FY 2022- FY 2021, there was a slight bump as a result of sort of contracts flowing over. You know, won't read too much into GP margin, but, you know, I'll instead sort of bring everyone's attention to the EBITDA breakdown. You know, I think this year, for FY 2022, you know, we did marginally better than FY 2021.

Smelting, as expected, contributed more or less the same amount in terms of earnings. You know, I think the one thing to note is that the overhang from mining has been removed, right? That overhang that we saw in FY 2021, sort of the orange region, this is really, you know, insignificant in FY 2022. Not only that, but the share of depreciation and amortization as a share of EBITDA has also come down significantly. This was because, I think we accelerated depreciation of OMM's assets in FY 2021 as we were preparing and planning for the closure of the mine, and this obviously sort of fell away in FY 2022.

Looking at, you know, our debt front end and sort of cash generation, you know, bulk of what we paid last year went towards a debt repayment. Sorry, this is excluding the acquisition of the, you know, 25% of OM Sarawak. If you exclude that, then everything else, you know, went to debt repayment. We paid $6 million, comprising project loan facilities, shareholder loans, and interest. Again, you know, I think we have been, you know, it's a stated objective for company to bring down a gearing ratio every year. You know, we managed to lower that again in FY 2022.

When you look at the cash flow movements of the company for FY 2022, you know, obviously, we generated close to $200 million in cash. $66 million went towards repayment and $120 million went towards the purchase of 25% stake of OM Sarawak from CMS. That has brought our cash position down to $53 million. You know, we still think, you know, that was a, you know, great opportunity to complete the transaction in FY 2022. I think on that note, I'm just gonna move on to the last slide. You know, these are sort of updated numbers based on full year FY 2022. On that note, I'll just, you know, talk briefly about the dividend.

We declared a dividend of $0.015. I think, you know, the company's stated policy has just been released and announced. I'll talk about these two things, you know, together because that's the best way to make sense of it. Historically, I think, OM Holdings has always tried to pay about 20% of Net Profit After Tax in dividends. I think, you know, after engaging with lots of shareholders, analysts, potential investors, both on the sort of public and retail side, we have finally resolved to declare a dividend policy.

We will, going forward, be paying 10%-30% of Net Profit After Tax with certain conditions that have to do with, you know, cash flow and debt ratios. You know, you can read the full document in our release. I think, you know, having sort of resolved to to to commit to a dividend policy, we are at the same time in a position where we have just completed, you know, major acquisition, having paid out $120 million for 25% of OM Sarawak. You know, it is with those considerations in mind that we are declaring, you know, a $0.015 dividend at this point because of, you know, significant cash outflow from the acquisition.

Going forward, this new dividend policy will come into play. That's it. For the presentation, I'm just gonna leave this one last slide here on screen, and, you know, sort of talk through future plans. For FY 2023, again, just to repeat, you know, we are guiding output of more or less what we achieved last year. You know, we expect to spend $10 million-$15 million in sustained CapEx. Again, you know, the future is silicon metal, more manganese alloys , bringing output to, you know, close to double to what we are targeting to achieve this year. Thank you very much for listening to the presentation. I am just going to end that slideshow. Okay. And take questions now.

Nicola Gazzetti
Co-Founder of investor Relations, Corporate Storytime

Thank you, Adrian. That's fantastic. I'm just going to reduce my screen. There we go. Thanks for that update. We now are gonna move on to our Q&A session. Our first question, and you did touch on it during your presentation, what are the actual conditions set by MIDA to be eligible for a second five-year tax exemption period from the first of December 2021 to the 30th of November 2026?

Adrian Low
Managing Director, OM Holdings

Okay. Without, you know, going into all the details of, you know, the conditions set by MIDA, I will just briefly share the nature of these conditions. The 1st condition relates to the production of Silicon Metal and investments in Sarawak that relate to that. Most of this has already been done, you know, considering that we are already tapping Silicon Metal, and we've already spent all the CapEx, you know, to achieve that's not an issue. The 2nd sort of family or set of conditions relate to developing local suppliers. Engaging local suppliers in Sarawak, developing their skill set and sort of, you know, contributing to the economy that way.

That's the second group, second conditions. The last one relates to local labor. This is a, you know, fairly simple condition to meet. It's just, you know, bringing interns into the company and, you know, empowering them and sort of, teaching them the skills to success, to succeed, in this industry. So those are, you know, sort of three broad criterias. I think, you know, the company is very confident of achieving them by 2026.

The issue is that because the deadline is set as 2026 and, you know, there are sort of, annual milestones to meet, you know, it's a bit different from the first five years where, you know, at inception it's very clear that we've met all conditions because, you know, we've actually made the investment to come into Sarawak. Because of the nature of, this sort of second five years, it's a bit strange because, we sort of have to prove on an ongoing basis that we are, you know, ahead of those targets. As, you know, as a result of this, you know, we are reaching out.

We are having this conversation with the IRB to say, you know, can we start providing for it and, you know, only sort of recognize it if we don't meet those targets. That's an ongoing conversation and, you know, we expect to have some clarity within this year.

Nicola Gazzetti
Co-Founder of investor Relations, Corporate Storytime

Thank you, Adrian. Our second question, how is the reopening of the Chinese economy impacting on ferroalloy demand currently? Does the reopening have an impact either in positive or negative on access to Chinese labor at OM Sarawak?

Adrian Low
Managing Director, OM Holdings

Yeah. I think you have to look at the reopening in sort of two ways. One is border controls, I think that's been, you know, loosened tremendously. We're quite optimistic about, you know, bringing those furnaces on beyond base case. You know, the sort of chief reason being, I've already met a lot of Chinese workers and Chinese colleagues from China. They're traveling freely. Given the programs and initiatives we've done in Sarawak, you know, with UNIMAS, with, you know, hiring local workers, we've actually reduced the number of Chinese workers we need for these sort of key positions.

Second thing relates to the economy, I think this is where it gets a bit more complex because at the end of the day, you know, Chinese steel is, you know, whether you like it or not, sort of half the world's output. China's sort of domestic policies around infrastructure, you know, real estate will affect steel demand and ferroalloy demand considerably. I think this is where there may be an opportunity where we see Ferrosilicon, because Ferrosilicon is, you know, China is the dominant supplier of Ferrosilicon to the world, at least in Asia. This is where we'll see an opportunity for Ferrosilicon prices to go beyond where it is now sort of at cost.

I think, we have been optimistic about, this Chinese reopening, but we actually haven't seen, that much impact in terms of Chinese steel production at this point.

Nicola Gazzetti
Co-Founder of investor Relations, Corporate Storytime

Thanks, Adrian. Our third question, how is the commissioning of the metallic silicon furnaces progressing? Are you close to achieving production for Silicon Metal 553? How are sales progressing for this new product stream? What is the outlook for the metallic silicon market?

Adrian Low
Managing Director, OM Holdings

Nicola, I think the line was a bit patchy, but I think I got the gist of the question about Silicon Metal commissioning. And I heard 553, so I'm just gonna answer along those lines. We have been able to produce 553, but it's not consistent. That's, you know, the long and short of it. The two targets are, you know, achieving 553, and achieving, you know, daily output numbers. Until we achieve both these consistently, you know, The furnace will remain in technically. Technical commissioning phase. In terms of sales, I think, you know, that's not really an issue at all.

We have been able to find customers, for everything ranging from, you know, obviously 553 as a standard product, all the way down to everything that has left the furnace, from day one. You know, anything that's off-spec or irregular, we have been able to find a customer for.

Nicola Gazzetti
Co-Founder of investor Relations, Corporate Storytime

Thanks, Adrian. There was just a little question at the end of that part. What do you think the outlook is for the metallic silicon market?

Adrian Low
Managing Director, OM Holdings

I think it's a bit early to call, Nicola. I think at this point in time, we are still sort of optimizing the marketing effort for silicon metal. I think if you look at the price spread between the West and Asia, I think there is still considerable premiums, you know, in say the U.S. or European markets compared to Asia. I think in terms of demand, it's really because of the nature of the demand, it's more diversified. It's not tied to a single industry like steel. That makes it slightly more difficult to read.

You know, we will have to sort of dive down into each of the grades, you know, 421, 441, 553, to really understand what's driving those dynamics. For now, what we're looking at in terms of demand, because also we've just been talking to a lot of consumers, for, say, 90%, that's just below 553. You know, that demand is there, it's steady. You know, will always be there. In terms of other markets, you know, we'll have to see how things go once we achieve those grades.

Nicola Gazzetti
Co-Founder of investor Relations, Corporate Storytime

Okay. Our next question, how is the Ukrainian-Russian conflict currently affecting manganese and ferroalloys markets? What are some of the catalysts which may provide upside to ferroalloys markets?

Adrian Low
Managing Director, OM Holdings

Yes. That's a great question because something actually just came out in the last two days, which is, you know, in the U.S., President Biden signed an order that covers very, very comprehensive list of metals from Russia. I think, you know, people might be familiar with 200% tariff on aluminum, but there's also a 35% tariff on ferrosilicon and, you know, the U.S. depends a lot on Russian ferrosilicon. I think at the moment, a lot of stockists have, you know, over the last 12 months, sort of prophylactically stopped a lot of Russian ferrosilicon in the U.S.

We'll see price action sort of flow through, I think, in a couple of months' time, but we are optimistic that, you know, there's sort of reshuffling of trade flows and trade patterns and that should benefit us. In sort of manganese alloys, Russia's in sort of exporting manganese alloys. Investors will be familiar with the fact that Ukraine is sort of the world's first and second largest, you know, depending on where you look at it, exporter of manganese. That production, you know, I think was stopped briefly at the end of last year, but has since restarted.

Although, you know, I think, it's sort of, you know, they're finding it very difficult to bring it back to full capacity, and we expect this to continue, you know, for indefinitely. That amount of production loss is equivalent to either, you know, one Sarawak or two Sarawaks. That's, you know, quite considerable export figure that's lost now.

Nicola Gazzetti
Co-Founder of investor Relations, Corporate Storytime

Thanks, Adrian. Could you give us an update on the current profit margins for Ferrosilicon, Silicomanganese and Silicon Metal production?

Adrian Low
Managing Director, OM Holdings

Sure. You know, for Silicon Metal, I think it's still too early to sort of call it because we're only producing one at one furnace. When the second furnace gets commissioned, we are seeing a sort of lag just purely because, you know, raw material hasn't really entered into sort of a normal purchasing cycle. A lot of material was purchased last year, you know, carried forward to this year. I think things will only normalize in the second half. Between Ferrosilicon and the manganese alloys, I would say Ferrosilicon margins are near are still near, you know, the cycle highs.

You know, if you look at, say pre-COVID, 2019, or, you know, sort of first half of 2020, you know, we're sort of way above what margins were at that point in time. Manganese alloy margins have, however, sort of normalized, and I think at this point in time, instantaneously, I just, you know, sort of looked at the January numbers, Ferrosilicon, we are doing better now in Ferrosilicon front compared to manganese. You know, I won't give you the actual number because there's just a lot of volatility in intermonth and, you know, that sort of washes out in every six months.

Nicola Gazzetti
Co-Founder of investor Relations, Corporate Storytime

Okay, Adrian, last question for today. Could you provide information on the structure of OM Holdings' debt, and how are the repayments being affected by the current rise in interest rates?

Adrian Low
Managing Director, OM Holdings

Sure. I think, you know, if you look at debt, most of it, you know, that $200 million, or just below $200 million, is project finance. We are repaying, you know, every year between $25 million-$30 million. If you look at the interest payments from FY 2021- FY 2022, that bumped up in FY 2022 because of the rise in interest rates. I think that will carry on into FY 2023, but that will also be sort of offset by the fact that we will be reducing the principal amount again this year.

I think, you know, it's sort of difficult to call, and that, sort of final, interest number, you know, may be constant, from FY 2022- FY 2023. The second portion of our debt, is the revolving credit line. That's, you know, a sort of very, very spot decision that we can make, at any point in time. If, you know, it becomes too expensive to finance these, materials that way, you know, we can always switch to alternative means.

And I think, you know, overall, I would expect, either, if you add those two components together, for interest expense to remain the same or sort of slightly more, for FY 2023. I think, you know, maybe just, continuing, along this train of thought, I think, we have in the past talked about a sort of complete and total restructuring of the project finance facility, because we're no longer in a sort of green field stage, and that's sort of what, you know, project finance is designed for. I think it really will depend on... resting point, whether that's in Q3 or Q4.

We will be engaging, you know, sort of exploring all different avenues to see how we can completely restructure that and bring these interest expense numbers lower.

Nicola Gazzetti
Co-Founder of investor Relations, Corporate Storytime

Thank you so much, Adrian. We have received a large number of questions today, and if we haven't covered your question during our webinar, we will respond to your queries offline. If you do have any further questions, you can e-email us at info@corporatestorytime.com. We will make a recording of this webinar available via OM Holdings and Corporate Storytime social media accounts in the coming days. This concludes our webinar for today. Thanks to everyone for attending and thanks to the OM Holdings team and Adrian for the update. Thank you so much, Adrian.

Adrian Low
Managing Director, OM Holdings

Thanks, Nicola. Thanks, everyone.

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