Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Origin Energy results presentation for the 2025 financial year. It's Frank Calabria here, and I'm joined by my executive leadership team. We have a brief presentation followed by questions and answers. You'll also note that we have provided additional information in the appendices for your review. Slide two provides a summary of the financial performance and business highlights for the year, and I think underscores the strength of our portfolio. Energy Markets EBITDA of AUD 1.404 billion is ahead of guidance. APLNG production of 682 PJ at a cost of AUD 4.20 GJ is in line with guidance. LNG Trading is at the top end of guidance with trading gains of AUD 441 million, and Octopus EBITDA is at a loss of AUD 88 million. It's within guidance and reflects the investment in its rapid global growth, but also some unseasonably warm weather and one-off adjustments.
There are several business highlights for the year. Our customer accounts grew by 104,000, cost-to-serve reduced by AUD 50 million. We had strong generation performance, and I'll talk to that later. Battery developments are on track, and Yanco Delta Wind Farm has secured access rights. We received AUD 797 million of dividends from APLNG during the year, and then a further AUD 335 million on the 3rd of July 2025, and those are all fully franked. Our 2P reserves are up by 298 PJ before production. The Sinopec price review is concluded with the final review in 2030 at APLNG's discretion, and Octopus continued its rapid growth. U.K. energy customers grew by 13% to 7.6 million. Customers in the non-U.K. energy markets have doubled to 2.7 million, and Kraken Technologies' contracted customers have grown by 45% to 74 million.
Very pleased to say that we've determined a final fully franked dividend of AUD 0.30 per share, supported by a strong balance sheet and cash flow outlook. Turning to financial highlights, the statutory profit and underlying profit are both up. Our underlying profit at AUD 1.49 billion is up from AUD 1.18 billion last year. Our underlying EBITDA of AUD 3.41 billion is lower. Our net debt to EBITDA is at 1.9 x, I think highlighting that balance sheet strength. Our rolling 24-month return on capital employed is 14.6%. With that final dividend, we have total dividends for the financial year of AUD 0.60 fully franked. Our purpose remains very important to us on slide 4, getting energy right for our customers, communities, and planet. Some of the highlights are for our customers: a customer happiness index of 69.4%. We spent AUD 38 million supporting customers in hardship in the last year.
We increased the breadth of our products. Those include now increasingly connected solutions, and we have been rapidly adopting AI with our customer interactions. For communities, it includes spending over AUD 400 million with regional suppliers and AUD 20 million with First Nation suppliers. We've contributed over AUD 4 million through our foundation, and we also contribute to many local communities, one example here is the Murrumbidgee Council for the Yanco Delta Wind project. For the planet, this year we have released our updated climate transition action plan and have reaffirmed its targets and ambitions. We've increased our ash reuse at Eraring to 61%, which is pleasing to see, and we've also advanced our wind and battery storage developments, and there's more in the operational section. Turning to slide five, Origin is leading through differentiated assets and capabilities that we continue to strengthen.
For customer, this includes a trusted brand, world-class platforms, and continuous innovation through tech and data. For energy supply, it includes the largest thermal peaking fleet, a diverse supply portfolio, and an advanced pipeline of developments in renewables and storage. For energy resource, we have APLNG, which is a world-class LNG asset. Equally importantly, it's backed by very strong reserves and an operating capability to deliver the results that are inherent in that asset and resource. With Octopus, we have a leading customer experience brand and low-cost retailer, and for Kraken, we have a best-in-class enterprise software platform. On slide six , we have our investment proposition for Origin. It constitutes a leading Australian business with strong cash flows, fully franked dividends, and also investing in the transition. Plus, we have significant growth potential through two globally significant businesses. Those leading Australian businesses are Energy Markets and our Greater Gas.
With Energy Markets, we have a leading brand, advanced tech platforms in place, opportunities for growth that extend across customers, products, renewables, and storage. Within the Greater Gas and APLNG, we have a low cost of supply and reserves, greater than 50% of which at least are beyond the current export contracts. Currently, based on our share price on 11th of August , we're paying a dividend yield of 5.1%, and that's before the franking benefit. The global growth I talked about, those significant businesses are Octopus and Kraken. In Octopus, we have the largest U.K. energy retailer that continues to grow, and it also grows in the non-U.K. markets and energy services. Kraken, as I said before, is a rapidly growing technology platform business, a significant addressable market, and line of sight to an annual recurring revenue of GBP 500 million by 2027.
On that note, I'll hand over to Tony for the financial results, and we'll come back and cover off the business performance in a moment.
Thank you, Frank. Tony Lucas here, CFO of Origin. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining. It's a pleasure to share such a strong result that demonstrates both operational discipline, portfolio strength, and long-term value for shareholders. Just turning to Energy Markets, EBITDA Energy Markets first. It was a strong second-half performance from Energy Markets, particularly within the electricity portfolio, benefiting from higher than normal trading gains and increased volatility, delivering an EBITDA result above the top end of guidance. The retail business grew by 100,000 customer accounts across electricity, gas, and the internet, reduced bad and doubtful debts, and a AUD 50 million overall reduction in cost-to-serve, well on our way to meet our target of AUD 100 million -AUD 150 million by financial year 2026 compared to financial year 2024.
As expected, EBITDA contribution was lower this year with lower customer tariffs following the lag cost recovery of higher energy prices in last year's tariff. In financial year 2024, we benefited from the coal price cap, which did not repeat in 2025. A strong underlying performance from Energy Markets highlights the portfolio is well placed into the energy transition. Octopus EBITDA was lower in financial year 2025 relative to 2024. However, U.K. retail saw strong organic growth of 13% customer growth, adding a further 1.6 million customer accounts. Octopus experienced unseasonably warm weather in the second half, impacting retail margin by AUD 60 million Origin share, as well as some one-off accounting treatment changes and a settlement of the government energy price guarantee from prior periods. That guarantee was set up to help customers through the energy crisis.
Non-U.K. retail continued to grow, doubling customer accounts to 2.7 million as it continues to invest and scale, looking to replicate the success in the U.K. Energy Services increased investment to establish a major foothold in consumer demand for behind-the-meter technology and into the drive for electrification in the U.K., including the heat pump market, which continues to be subsidized by the U.K. government. Kraken continues to expand globally with contracted accounts reaching 74 million, with 45 million of these live. Integrated Gas, APLNG's EBITDA was down 3%, reflecting lower production, lower realized LNG prices, also including the impact of the Sinopec price review, which concluded in the period. LNG Trading delivered at the top end of guidance at AUD 441 million from trading gains relating to opportunistic hedging undertaken in 2022 during the energy crisis.
APLNG continues to be a significant contributor to the East Coast gas market, and as Frank highlighted, has strong reserves well in excess of its export contracts. Moving through to cash, FY 2025 saw a major investment in growth CapEx. Energy Markets cash conversion exceeded 100% once we adjust for the Queensland bill relief. APLNG cash flow was strong with AUD 797 million in the year and a further AUD 335 million on the 3rd of July, and that was all 100% franked. Cash tax was slightly higher than last year, but it was lower than what I indicated to you in February as we're able to vary tax installments throughout the year. CapEx was slightly below expectations, but this is mainly due to timing of payments around year-end, with material investments in battery storage as part of the energy transition.
Moving on to the balance sheet, net debt moved up to AUD 4.6 billion as anticipated on the back of those investments into the battery projects. Earnings from these will start to come on in the second half of FY 2026 and further earning contributions expected from FY 2027. We expect adjusted net debt to EBITDA to be in our target range over the FY 2026/FY 2027 period. Our balance sheet is well placed to deliver strong dividends and invest into growth. Capital allocation, the board has determined a dividend of AUD 0.30 per share fully franked. That results in a dividend yield over 5%. The FY 2025 declared dividend result is an 86% payout ratio. Dividends paid were up 21% relative to the prior period. This combined with our investment into the energy transition reflects our disciplined approach to capital management.
I hope you can see that we remain focused on both driving efficiency, capturing opportunities in an evolving landscape, but ultimately delivering sustainable returns. I'll hand back to Frank to dive into the underlying business drivers.
Thanks very much, Tony. We now turn to business performance, and I'm now on slide 13. Energy Markets are tracking in line with medium-term targets that many of you will be aware of. Electricity earned just above that medium-term target in financial year 2025, and that target is AUD 25 MWh- AUD 40 MWh . You'll see that gas is in line with the AUD 3 GJ- AUD 4 GJ target for the year, and we have achieved cost-to-serve savings at AUD 50 million in the year and are on track to meet our target of AUD 100 million- AUD 150 million savings in FY 2026 compared to FY 2024. Turning to customer on the next slide, we're growing share and value with a relentless focus on customer. As I said earlier, we grew our customer base by 104,000, continuing the growth trend over the last four years.
We've been very pleased with the investments we have made in channels that's enabling us to acquire customers at a low cost. We've repositioned the brand to all kinds of useful and have the highest brand consideration and preference in the industry, and we're building scale in our internet offering. Our customer experience has improved. Our churn of 13.4% is over 6% lower than market, and importantly, we are attracting and retaining our key customer segments. Our digital interactions with customers continue to rise. Our customer happiness index improved, and you can see that through the trend of the last six months of this financial year, and product bundling is delivering benefits. Our investment in leading tech and product continues to advance, and you can see there the utilization of AI for emails and messages, and we also have a pilot for AI voice agent that's live with 25,000 customers.
The investment in tech and product is all about improving the user experience and faster speed to market across many dimensions, all leading to better outcomes for customers. Our Virtual Power Plant grew to 1.5 GW and importantly is delivering value. As you can see from this slide, we are starting to reap the benefits of Kraken investment and our investments more broadly across a range of capabilities and technologies. Turning to slide 15, I did talk about the strong generation performance, and on the left-hand side, what we really mean by that is being there when it counts, and that enabled high coverage through volatility events. You'll see most notably what happened in June 2025, where many of you will be watching what happened, and very pleasingly, we're available at all of those important times and have done that throughout the year.
Our gas peaking and hydro start reliability is very high, and we've achieved good availability for Eraring through the year. Our investments in renewables and storage, the batteries are on track, and we're confirming our target post-tax returns of 8% - 11% post-tax and continue to see it at the upper end of that range at the front end of the asset life. Yanco Delta Wind Farm is progressing. We've been granted full access rights, and we've resubmitted environmental approvals as part of that development. Turning to APLNG, the revenue is steady. The composition has moved underneath in terms of a higher proportion of LNG, which has been offset by lower LNG prices. You will see there that we have received the full-year benefit of QCLNG purchase volumes for a contract we entered into in 2018.
Our costs are steady, although the nature of the activity changed throughout the year with higher work orders and optimization, offsetting less cyclical upstream maintenance activity. You will see on the cash distributions on the right that they are similar to the prior year when you take into account the franking benefit. That's despite the realized oil price being lower at $83 a barrel before hedging. We highlight here that 41% of our 2026 financial year oil exposure is hedged at a net $73 a barrel. APLNG is now paying fully franked dividends, and that's expected to continue. The next slide, 17, highlights APLNG's reserves and production. You can see on the left-hand side that the 2P reserves have uplifted by 3% before production. That's really come out of the Spring Gully and the updated reserves.
We have greater than 50% of reserves and resources beyond the export contracts as highlighted by that yellow portion of the bar on the left-hand chart. We continued our strong trend of reserves replacement. That's 57% in 2025 and an average of 72% since 2017. We have the opportunity to increase future reserves with exploration activity underway. On the right-hand side, this really, I think, reaffirms the material that you would have received in the quarterly, but for completeness, you can see in terms of both production and wells drilled in the east. For Talinga Orana, it's all focused on optimization activity to manage natural fuel decline. For Condabri, it's focused on live work orders and solids mitigation, remembering that in the east, we're no longer facilities constrained in Talinga Orana particularly. In the west, it's very strong fuel performance where we are constrained by processing facilities.
In non-operated fields, they have been impacted by decline in some fields, unplanned outages, and development delays. Turning to the next slide, just really continuing the strategy that we've been executing on in APLNG. The near-term focus is very much about ramping up field optimization activity, focusing on de-bottlenecking infrastructure, projects that reduce downhole pressure and can accelerate production, and also resuming exploration and appraisal. In the midterm, there are opportunities for us to invest in infrastructure and drilling, particularly in the west, to accelerate low-cost gas. We did highlight in the quarterly that that is subject to APLNG board approval, but there are opportunities to bring low-cost gas into the portfolio subject to that decision. We are focused on drilling new fields in the east and also growing reserves through exploration and appraisal. Turning now to Octopus and Kraken.
The Octopus group, the energy group there, and Kraken continue to build two growing platforms aligned to Origin. Origin is supportive of the legal separation of these businesses with an appropriate capital structure for growth and regulatory requirements. Octopus Energy has demonstrated to be a leading energy retailer with significant growth potential. It has tremendous capabilities across brand, customer experience, low cost, and innovation. Origin gets the benefit of that customer growth, the increasing customer lifetime value, and really the ability for us and them to share and learn from each other across retail and wholesale energy management. Kraken Technologies is the leading platform, the best-in-class enterprise platform in energy and utilities. It's got a proven track record transforming and modernizing companies across the world.
There's an enormous addressable market, and its growth is significant in both new geographies and products, and it's achieving well in excess of the global SaaS rule of 40. Obviously, Origin gets the benefit of being a foundation customer of Kraken, but also the insight into the ongoing technology innovation, including AI. A little further detail on the next slide in relation to Octopus Energy. Number one energy retailer in the U.K., more than 24% market share. The average EBITDA over the last four years is GBP 40 per customer, whilst doubling customers. Its cost to acquire is low these days at GBP 60 a customer, and it's attracting greater than 35% or greater than 40% of switches and low churn. In the non-U.K. markets, you can just see how rapidly it has grown over the last 12 months, doubling those meters on supply.
They really are focused on replicating that U.K. success with the same capabilities. Energy services is all about increasing customer lifetime value through integrating those low carbon technologies with its existing large customer base and the long-term value through the combination of services, supply, and flexibility. They very much are focused on business improvement towards profitability, which goes to margins, efficiency, and labor utilization. Kraken Technologies on slide 21 is uniquely placed for growth, clear competitive advantage. You can see their success rate. It's a global enterprise software platform, AI-enabled, and it's now got 45 migrations in 17 countries. It's serving the full utility value chain, and the product has expanded into water and broadband. That large addressable market I've spoken to, you can see, is enormous at 2.1 billion households globally, and they've signed their major first customer in the U.S.
You can see their significant contracted customer growth and revenue on the right-hand side of that chart, with revenues growing by 77% in the year and the EBITDA margin of 43%, which is an average over the last three years. I will now turn to guidance, and we provide a summary here, and there is further information supporting this guidance in the slides in the appendix. This guidance is provided on the basis that market conditions and the regulatory environment do not materially change. For Energy Market s, EBITDA the FY 2026 guidance is AUD 1.4 billion- AUD 1.7 billion. The LNG Trading EBITDA is between AUD 100 million- AUD 150 million. The share of Octopus Energy EBITDA is between AUD 0 million and A UD 150 million, and total CapEx, including any excluding any acquisitions, is between AUD 800 million and AUD 1.1 billion.
For APLNG, this is consistent with what you would have received at the time of issuing our quarterly production of between 635 PJ- 680 PJ. Production CapEx, OpEx, all-in costs between AUD 2.9 billion and AUD 3.2 billion, and therefore that converts to a unit range of CapEx and OpEx between AUD 4.30 GJ and AUD 5 GJ for the FY 2026 year. Just finishing up, really just want to summarize the fact that we highlighted, I think, the advantaged assets and capabilities that are well positioned for the transition, the strong cash flows and returns from two diversified businesses in Energy Markets and Integrated Gas through APLNG, and also that we've got global growth exposure and value upside via Kraken and Octopus Energy. Importantly, having a balance sheet that's strong enables us to not only increase funding, increase dividends this year, but also is enabling us to continue to invest in the energy transition.
On that note, we will open up for questions, and the team will look forward to answering anything that you may have regarding this result.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you would like to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speaker phone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question today comes from Tom Allen from UBS . Please go ahead.
Good morning, Frank, Tony, and the broader team. Just on the guidance for Origin's share of Octopus Energy EBITDA, it's been a little bumpy the last year or two. Can you just please share a little bit more color on the drivers of the wide range for fiscal 2026, including the potential draw from the growth being pursued in the U.K. in the energy services division?
Yeah, thanks, Tom. Tony here. There's been a few ups and downs, I think, this year with the weather, but also with the settlement of the energy price guarantee and a few accounting adjustments based on the non-U.K. entities and really sort of cleaning up those acquisitions and aligning them to Octopus's accounting standards. We've just increased the range probably compared to where we had last year to take into account the increased investment in sort of non-U.K. retail and also the improvements that they're trying to make in the energy services business. With the non-U.K. retail, there really is the leeway to turn that up and down based on how they're going in market, and that drives a lot of the spend into that growth. In the energy services, really looking this year to sort of optimize that field force, increase sales, and also increase sort of unit margins.
Just a bit more of a wider range to account for those variabilities.
Okay, thanks, Tony. Just staying with Octopus, there's been plenty of press. You've commented on it in the past around the potential for a value realization opportunity relating to Origin's interest in Kraken. Could you comment on how Origin's minded to deploy any proceeds that it might receive if that were to occur? Is an ongoing exposure to a global energy retail opportunity something that the board sees as attractive, or is redeploying proceeds to Australian shareholders and/or funding growth in Australia more preferred?
Yeah, that's a fairly forward-looking question, Tom. We're very focused at the moment on the separation of those businesses, and that leads to choices and opportunities, but I don't want to get too far ahead of us on that. In terms of assessing those, call it investments, I do think you should think about the energy and the technology investments as different businesses. We will make an assessment through time based on the best choices of allocating capital. We have choices available here as well. We'd be very pleased, obviously, with the growth in that investment, but we will make decisions and will be very clear to the market over time.
Clearly, if they separate and Kraken does find its way to be a separate entity, which I really can't say more about at the moment given we're just focused on the separation itself, that will present choices to us and will keep the market informed as we go forward. It just feels a little early at the moment to be thinking about how we might realize that through time. You should see directionally, we're very supportive of the separation and therefore puts these businesses on two separate paths.
That's clear, Frank. Thank you. If I can just sneak one last one, just in the Energy Markets business, you've achieved an electricity portfolio margin through the top end of that medium-term target range. Looking into the outlook, do you still expect that this margin will grow during the period you continue to operate Eraring and the additional battery earnings into the business? What would be the key upside-downside risks that you'd see on a three-year view?
I think highlighted before that with Eraring continuing to run and as we bring the batteries in, we would be near or above sort of top end of that medium-term target. We'd expect next year to be the same. If I look forward, it'll be a function of sort of how Eraring runs, availability around Eraring. If I thought about what are the risks to it, there'll be batteries coming on which will sort of counteract that and perform a bit better. The retail book's going pretty well and we're seeing competition, you know, we're performing well in market from competition. I think it's really just the underlying sort of plant availability in the market that probably drives the largest variance.
That's clear. Thanks, Tony.
Just adding to that, Tom, it's just always difficult to predict the level of volatility that will occur in a market and our availability to it. We're certainly setting our business up to make sure assets are available, the portfolio is there when it counts. The inherent underlying volatility in the market you can see was a little higher this year, and that's the one that's more difficult to predict on an ongoing basis.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Dale Koenders from Barrenjoey . Please go ahead.
Morning, guys. Maybe just continuing on with Octopus, the comment around the right capital settings for divestment of Kraken. Just wondering how you're thinking about further equity contributions net to Origin before a possible IPO.
Sorry, Dale, just equity contributions, you meaning by Origin to the group?
There's been media speculation about an equity raising, and I'm not sure if Origin would, if there is, if Origin would participate or not.
Yeah, I think in terms of then setting it up, it's probably a bit early about that. Separating out does need to make sure that both those groups have capital that can enable them to go on their paths for growth. That's probably more a question for the energy business as you think about it acquiring customers across many markets. We continue to look at each of those on their merits. If we made any investment, you'd hear about that well in advance. It does come down to whether if they did an equity raise, what would that be and for what purpose. I know it's been reported in a particular context, but there's been no firm decision to do that at this particular point in time. We'll just assess it on the merits. That's how we think about it at the moment.
It's probably a bit early to speculate whether we're doing further in that business or not. Nor should you be inferring it one way or the other at this point, to be clear.
Okay, noted. Maybe a question for Tony, questions around sort of the outlook for your leverage settings increasing to 2 x-3x over the next couple of years. Is there any sort of non-cash items you need to call out or wanted to, or maybe like cash tax payments, how that's playing out? The other part of that is probably like dividends, how you're thinking about the outlook for dividend settings given all those movements and given increasing capacity.
Yeah, so we highlighted, I think, you know, last results that as we made the battery investments, we would start to, our gearing would start to increase into that range. That's playing out as expected. We did defer the APLNG dividend into financial year 2026, which changed that profile a bit, but it'll generally be in that range. I think in terms of cash tax, we expect that to materially decrease into financial year 2026, which we've called out before. I'm not seeing anything else outside of the fact that we'll have battery earnings come, we'll have net debt go up, battery earnings coming in. APLNG is obviously going to have a little bit higher CapEx in the medium term. Those are all the things that we'll sort of take into account when we think about that ratio.
Is there scope to increase dividends, or is the policy of where you've said at AUD 0.60 for FY 2025 more of a sustainable level for now?
Yeah, look, our goal is not to swing the dividend around and look to keep it pretty sort of constant with the potential perhaps to grow it in AUD 0.01 per share. You'll see we paid out above 80% of sort of adjusted free cash flow this year. The board will make that decision on a year by year, half by half basis.
Okay, thanks.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Nik Burns from Jarden Australia. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks, Frank and Tony and team. Just a question again on the FY 2026 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance range. Compositionally, you've called out relatively stable electricity gross profits year on year. You talked about the one-offs that assisted in FY 2025, but then you've got the contributions from batteries coming through in the second half. You've also then directionally talked about potentially higher gas gross profits and then further benefits and cost-to-serve coming down further. Just feels like given you've exited at FY 2025, was that just above AUD 1.4 billion. Is it right to think that your range could end up being fairly conservative?
As Frank highlighted just before, the ability to predict the level of volatility in the market and the potential trading gains that we'll make as that plays out and plant availability. You know, we came off a pretty good financial year 2025 in that nature, but if you remember financial year 2024, we didn't quite have the plant availability. I think you can think about us setting our range as being, you know, taking a view on that. It'd be probably more of an aggressive view if you were forecasting financial year 2025 to repeat. We've sort of set the range in that way. If you have a look in the OFR, you'll see that our underlying dollars a megawatt hour unit cost on swaps is particularly low. It's in the low AUD 40s, which represents that trading gain.
As time as we roll through to 2026, we expect that to increase a bit. There are a few things that came out of 2025 that mean that that's probably sort of slightly elevated, and we've set the 2026 range on that basis.
That's great. Thanks for that, Tony. Just a question around your FY 2026 CapEx guidance. It really, I think, highlights that you're over the main hump of battery investment. I'm just wondering how we should think about your growth plans from generation and firming capacity beyond the existing battery investment commitments. What are your drivers here as you consider your options in the shape of the supply and capacity portfolio post-Eraring closure? Thank you.
Yeah, so you see CapEx drops in 2020, we forecast CapEx to drop in 2026, and when we look at committed CapEx into 2027, it drops further. As we bring those batteries on, we'll assess the performance of those. We'll look at, you know, the market requirements as regards to Eraring. We've always said we'll be engaging with the government and being cognizant of prices for customers as well as security of supply. We need to take all of that into account. We continue to assess greenfield options in both batteries and OCGT peaking plant, but we'll be quite clear if we decide to move further on those.
There are no near-term plans. Any FIDs upcoming in FY 2026 for additional growth investment?
We've got nothing committed at, nothing planned at this stage, but it's not to say that we may not do small things around, you know, perhaps batteries. If there were modifications or extensions we could do to those, if we thought they were particularly attractive investments. We're seeing the returns in batteries. Obviously, we've got to prove that in fin year 2026, but our forecast returns look quite good, so we find those quite attractive. We'll just take all of that into account and be clear when we're willing to make those commitments.
The only add I'd give to that, Nik, is that we do advance a lot of initiatives behind the scenes, but when you say timing on confirmed FID timing, that's where we won't be more precise at this point in time because we advance and we have to assess the market. There's a lot of policy work that's going on right at the moment. We'd like to understand that, but we certainly are advancing, for example, OCGT developments, both Greenfield and Brownfield across our fleet. We'll continue to work on those, but I wouldn't have an FY 2026 FID at this point in time as a firm timing, but we will be advancing on the basis that we would want to bring decisions, the right decisions at the right time, and therefore doing the lead-in work that takes some time.
That's very clear. Thank you both.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Gordon Ramsay from RBC . Please go ahead.
Thank you very much and great result. Slide 15, you captured some really good pricing in the June quarter. How did you do that? Was it a combination of Eraring, gas-fired? Just kind of interested in terms of how you delivered good availability and capture of electricity pricing June quarter.
Yeah, Gordon, it's Greg Jarvis here. Thanks for the question. There's a couple of things. One, just calling out the trading team. Firstly, we construct a robust portfolio. That's very important. Equally, in that quarter, the generation performance is very good. One thing which we always concentrate on is availability at the right time. That means you just got to make sure you keep your maintenance up to these machines and just perform at the right time. That's what played out. It was just good portfolio performance right across that period.
Thanks, Greg. Maybe this is a question for you, Frank. Just following on from Nik's question on the CapEx outlook. How much is your CapEx decision being affected by your view on Eraring? Clearly, you're going to have to consider whether or not a two-year extension happens with respect to that plan. Is that affecting your CapEx expenditure over the next year or two?
Certainly, the decision around Eraring, and as you know, we've got our notice for closure in pursuant to the agreement with government by sort of August 27. Clearly, we continue to assess the market and the needs of the market. We will certainly, that feeds into our timing and decisions around it. Equally, also it does, it's whether we build or contract, and you've seen what we've done with batteries. We felt that it was appropriate when you're making a bet on a technology all at once to do a combination of build and contracting in terms of the duration of those and the capital commitment. Those feed into it, and that would be an ongoing discussion that Greg and Tony and I and the teams would be focused on in terms of the contracting options versus build.
You're right, Eraring and its timing and any considerations that would feed into that thinking. Our job really here is to navigate this transition effectively for customers and shareholders. What we're really looking at is how do you continue to allocate capital wisely in a market that has uncertainty. We have done that, I think, to date, and we would continue to make assessments around it, which is why, to Nik's question and yours, we are preparing for a variety of scenarios to be ready to execute on those. The final decisions of both timing and choice will be determined by a range of factors that you've talked about. We're looking forward to seeing that in the direction of the direction also of the Nelson view to make sure we're confident about that as well. Nothing to suggest it's not at the moment. They're focusing in the right areas.
There's just a bit of detail to be worked through. That's important. We'll continue to make decisions based on that premise.
Yeah. Gordon, one other addition is that we haven't missed on maintaining our units. Eraring, we're even having an outage this September. We're keeping the plant up to scratch, which is important in this market.
Lastly, if I may, just on the gas supply situation, we heard yesterday that another company is getting their margin squeezed and higher costs for gas supply. You're going to lose your fixed price contracts in the next couple of years. Are you kind of seeing any pressure there at all, or are you pretty happy with your position from APLNG and the benefits that you have in the domestic gas market?
Yeah, so Gordon, our gas portfolio remains well placed. We have long-term contracts. There's a couple of moving parts this year. There's a couple of contracts roll off, both a sale and a purchase. You should expect consistent earnings from the gas portfolio going forward.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Amit Kanwatia from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Morning team. If I can start with the strategy around Kraken and Octopus, and you said you're supportive of the separation that gives you choices. Maybe if you can speak to how you see is the best approach to unlock value for your shareholders from that separation, please?
Yeah, so if you think about those two businesses, separation, they are becoming different businesses pursuing global strategies. In particular, you're seeing now Kraken really going into multiple markets across not just the energy or the full utility chain, but also into water and broadband. It's clearly set itself up with a leadership team. A lot of what you're seeing even this year is the build of a global growth capability. It's going to set itself up. It's too early to talk about it. There's been lots of speculation in the press on IPO. It's a bit early for us to talk about that because shareholders would need to decide upon that at the right time. We are very focused on separation, but you could see that putting it into a situation which provides a realizable event, I think, is important for Origin over time.
We are cognizant that we are a shareholder amongst many and that everyone's working and aligned around focusing on that separation now. In relation to the energy transition business, it's a business that Tony talked about earlier that has actually very much cemented itself to be a profitable business in the U.K. and now has two growth sectors, both in the non-U.K. markets and energy services. That is really all about earlier, talking about setting it up to go on that growth. Importantly, it's worth recognizing that they never pulled the heavy growth lever in those two other vectors until they had a very profitable U.K. retail business. We're just going through the strategy for that over time in a separated world.
The focus I think you'll find is that if we get them separated, it sets up Kraken on a path which enables it to be valued separately, potentially leading to liquidity, but too early. Then we can choose what's the best way to realize value for our shareholders there.
Sure. Just staying on Kraken, and you commented on the EBITDA margin, which is an average 2023, 2025 at 43%. Yeah, maybe if you can speak to is there any margin kind of expectations into the future for that business?
Yes, there are margin expectations in the business. What you'll find when you do that average, to be very transparent, you'll see that the current year's margin is lower. We didn't think that was reflective because what's actually happening right now, this business has now got a CEO that has run global software businesses. They've just recruited a CFO. They've got a leadership team. They're now building out product that's really geographic sales expansion. It is really reflective of a heavier investment this year to build those capabilities. As you can see, it's pulling through revenue growth that's coming through. I think it's a better read to look at those overall margins over the last several years. That would be a better read in our view.
I'm saying that without having a very precise, you know, giving you a very precise, but it's a better guide than I think what you're looking at in the current based on the amount of revenue that's pulling through and live revenue that's going to emerge over time. That's how I would focus on it. Clearly, you're looking at the growth, and they've got to continue to sign customers in markets around the world. That's where we're focused. We're focused the organization. We really wanted to run hard at that. It is a very significant opportunity. That's a convergence of a few things. We've got disaggregated energy technology. Not only that, but we've also got cloud enablement and AI that are actually going to be increasingly important to our sector. I think it's best to read that three-year average as a guide.
Sure. Maybe if I can move to the Energy Markets. I mean, if I think about your customer strategy, which is around Kraken migration, you've migrated your customers on Kraken. Octopus in the U.K. has been a great success story. I mean, you've talked to the cost-benefit coming through the next into 2026. Maybe if you can speak to your strategy in terms of customer growth in this market and the lifetime customer value and basically what the benefits you get from better improved access to the VPPs.
Yeah, it's Jon Briskin here. In a lot of ways, I think the results speak a little bit for themselves there that we're seeing that growth come through now post the migration of Kraken. We certainly feel that we're in an advantageous position. We've got some great channels. We've obviously got the technology, the product propositions, and we're sort of lowering the costs. You see that pulling through in that churn differential to market. You see that pulling through in terms of the customer wins. We offer customers, you know, we like to think we offer them very fair and reasonable pricing. We're not always the price leader. We manage the value of our customer base. We think about multi-product when we look at value. You're right, the orchestration of different assets over time presents a real opportunity for us.
The one and a half gig on the VPPs is part of that. Frank mentioned that's now starting to deliver value. We certainly think that the sort of collection of capabilities, including access to more customers taking up batteries through our acquisition of Solar Quotes, puts us in a really good position to look at this retail market and see that growth come through.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Rob Koh from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you and congratulations on the result. My first question is, I guess, in relation to battery returns, and you've given us an indication there of the kind of 8%- 11% return range. I take it that that's for the projects you've already committed to. Is that a similar kind of return profile that you would be looking at a new battery project today? The second part of that question, if you could provide any update on bottom-up how you derive those types of returns through, I guess, caps and arbitrage and ancillary services, please?
Thanks. Good question. Rob, Tony here. Yeah, so when we've looked at the projects in the past, we've given a range of 8 %- 11%, and we've probably said that in the front end, it's towards the upper end of that as we sort of expect the market to build out batteries over time. I think what would drive the rate being higher would be if you had lower CapEx coming from lower construction costs or lithium. I mean, we've seen from when we started building batteries to the most recent ones we built, we've seen the prices decrease mainly in lithium. So yeah, when we look at new projects, we've sort of put them in that range as well. There may be some brownfield benefits as well.
In terms of the spread of income, we would sort of say it gets income from those three things, which is, if you like, the cap value, which we would put it somewhere between sort of 40% and 45%, maybe as high as 50%, and then maybe there's 5% in FCAS, and then the balance would be the energy arbitrage. I think that what you've got to look at when people are quoting those percentages, Rob, is the duration of their batteries. If you've got shorter duration batteries, you'll get more from the cap value than you would from the energy spread. Ours are quite in terms of what other people are putting in. Ours will have a bit more duration, so it'll get a bit more revenue from the spread.
Okay, thanks, Mr. Lucas. That's really helpful. Also, I have seen a few transactions reported in the market. I think CLP reported a gain of AUD 77 million by selling down a battery development that's under construction. I wonder if you guys would like to comment on your pipeline of developments, if capital recycling is a possibility on that front.
Yeah, I think we do assess this all the time, Rob. We're obviously with Yanco Delta. That's our, you know, sort of plan A is to sell down at least a very large proportion of that. You've seen us do some battery tolling deals where we haven't been the developer. We continue to assess whether, you know, when we think about capital allocation, we continue to assess what are the capital recycling opportunities and that is a potential opportunity that we could take up.
Yeah, okay, cool. Thank you. Maybe just moving over to the gas side or the upstream side, one of the things that you've mentioned is that the Ironbark reserves are still trying to achieve EPBC approvals. I wonder if you could provide any kind of color or update on that and maybe in particular if you have any comment on what the groundwater approval process is there. Is it going through OGIA or IESC or if you're able to share that?
Yeah, hi Rob, Andrew Thornton here. Maybe just to recap where Ironbark's part of a broader set of approvals, we've been progressing through EPBC for quite a while. The first time that got submitted to EPBC was in 2020. As many people will be familiar with, that's quite a long process which is subject to third-party interventions along the way. Most of those approvals, Ironbark is embedded in that approval. There are approvals outside of Ironbark that reflect our existing tenure. We're hopeful of an approval through EPBC this calendar year. We need to continue to work that. Obviously, there's some regulatory reform going on in that area. Certainly, it's not for certain. After you go beyond that, we'd be looking at starting phase one of Ironbark drilling.
We've talked about, you've seen disclosed in the reserves report as 300 PJs for 2P and quite a bit more than that for 3P. It'd be a two to three-year process before you'd see gas coming through from Ironbark. I have to take this specific question on groundwater and which regulatory agency is taking that. I have to take that one away. I'm sorry.
No worries at all. Thank you very much, Mr. Thornton. Final question, if you'll indulge me. I haven't had a chance to read fully through your CTAP document, but I just wanted to double-check if your scope one, two, and three targets include APLNG or not, and if there's a cumulative target in addition to the 2030 interim target.
Yes, the scope one, two, and three do include APLNG. In terms of the absolute target we had, is that what you're referring to, Rob?
Yeah, so you've got a nice 20 million tons reduction by 2030. Is there also like a cumulative between now and then type of?
Oh, right, okay. Yeah, we did have a shorter-term target in our prior CTAP that was an absolute, which I thought you were referring to. No, there's no cumulative. That's a reduction in year in 2030.
Okay, cool.
This is the 2019 baseline.
Yes, understood.
Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Ian Myles from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi guys, just a couple of questions. If we go back to Eraring, can you maybe give us a color on the timelines you need to make if you want to extend it? Because obviously planning CapEx and maintenance cycles are long lead items. There's something when you need to make those sort of decisions.
Yeah, okay. Hi, and it's Frank. We have always worked on the premise that having reliable and available assets has been absolutely of the utmost importance in a market that's as dynamic as it is. I think you've seen it play out in the last year. Having them that way has meant that we've not compromised any decision to date on those units. Every year we make a decision about the next unit. Think about four units and they're on a four-year cycle. We make a decision every year regarding that. The next decision for the unit will be probably made first half of next calendar year for execution around this equivalent time. That will be our next decision point on the next large component of capital.
Greg, I think we spend about AUD 100 million a year, but three quarters of that would be around these, would be a big outage now. Is that right? Yeah, right.
We're proceeding with a major outage this year.
We certainly think about the scope of it.
The decision is not till next year.
That's right.
You've got to make the call next year on when you do, whether you let a unit die.
That's right. That's correct, Ian.
That's right. Also, the scope of that work too, Ian, so it's not always digital. It can be, what would you decide the scope based on? Call it the life of what you would expect to then make the next investment. Maybe what we could indicate to you next year is if we were reducing scope or doing anything like that, you could get an indication from us regarding that. That's probably the key. The second thing is really that we do have to assess the market. We're very respectful also of the relationship with government. We're also, you know, I think have been a very responsible operator and will continue to make the best decisions in the context of customers as well as our shareholders, as well as government. If you really thought about the next lead time on that, it's really around that next capital investment decision.
Also, whatever we do, we need to think about our people. We've done that, I think, successfully today, but we don't want to take that for granted. You know, we've got a bit of time if that's what you were getting at.
Okay. In terms of there was a bit of speculation, I think GenTrak came out and said they weren't getting a renewal from Snowy. There was speculation in the market around Snowy looking at Kraken. I'm just interested in what Origin's attitude towards the exclusivity they have and what they might be able to extract in terms of value from releasing that exclusivity.
I don't have anything to say today, Ian, on that except that the exclusivity is valuable. Therefore, it would need to be recognized in the context of anything that was done to release it. That's how you should think that we would treat that. Nothing to say further than that at the moment. We think they're the leader, and having that exclusivity is valuable. We also think them growing globally is also very valuable for the Kraken stock. We are very cognizant of both of those, and you would expect us to get value for exclusivity if we were to release it.
Okay. In terms of Octopus Energy, you talk about separation. You also imply that maybe Octopus Energy has a capital shortage given regulatory requirements and the likes. I'm just trying to understand the need and the quantum of capital that Octopus Energy might need, and also the timing of it. Does separation come first before a raise, or does a capital requirement, or is it the other way around?
All good questions, Ian. In fact, that's what the group is working through right now. It's not just that, it's also the growth ambition that it sits with that. Really what's going through right now is what do we think those capital requirements will be? I know it's been speculated about a particular capital requirement because of in the U.K. market associated with being a retailer. That's not something they have today. It's something they have in several years. They do need to think about all of their regulatory requirements and all of that capital base. Just to let you know that is actually what's being worked through right now because there's a range of solutions and it's one that's really the subject of discussion by the shareholders and the board right now.
That's why I can't really add more to it at the moment except you're on the right thing.
Okay. One final question. You talk about your AUD 25 - AUD 40 per megawatt hour and you're outperforming that quite well, which is impressive. I'm just interested on the demand side and the actual selling of electricity and where you see that growth coming through. The rapid surge of batteries, does that actually become a negative for the retail side of the business? What's that sort of growth rate you see in actual megawatts sold?
I might get Jon to talk from a consumer point of view if you're happy, and then James Magill could talk about from a business point of view. We'll give you a sense for what's happening in the market, and if you need further, we can then add to that.
I mean, the forecast we would have at the residential would be broadly flat, as you said, the offset of EVs coming in and energy efficiency in batteries decline that demand. I think the way, so that's sort of perhaps at a demand level, I think the way we sort of think about it is around the opportunity to use that demand through our VPP and use that flexibility at the right times to be able to generate both better returns for us, but also to deliver that value back to customers as well. I think that's sort of where the key product propositions and focus is now going.
I see. From a C&I enterprise point of view, there are some things driving demand like the electrification and then, you know, energy efficiency. Across most sectors, broadly flat, but the biggest tailwind in C&I is data centers. There are varying forecasts there. We obviously have a good market share of data centers and from our own customer forecasts, some forecasts up to 25% annual growth are reasonable and we're seeing some of that.
Okay. Is the profitability out of a data center as good as out of a regular corporate customer, or given their low profile, it's pretty, pretty low profitability?
Certainly, it's a flat low profile. I would say with data centers and many other customers, there's many opportunities to work with them on a fuller energy services package. Behind the meter, some advisory services depending on the carbon composition they're looking for. With a bigger, more complex load, there's a great opportunity to provide a wider set of services that would complement the electricity volume.
Yeah, and Tony here, probably the other thing on it at a macro level is we are starting to see electrification coming through in the market. A sort of rotation out of domestic gas into electricity is lifting usage in domestic customers, certainly on the electricity side. We'll have, obviously, EV growth coming through on that side as well. I think the key thing to.
The AUD 40 MWh , which I think you're highlighting, is, you know, the incremental load's not all earning AUD 40 MWh . That margin's across the book, which includes, you know, return on, you know, assets that were invested in in the past. Certainly, we're seeing a lot, you know, opportunities across C&I and residential in terms of increased electricity consumption.
Okay, look, that's great. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Henry Meyer from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Mario, just to expand on the portfolio electricity margins, which remain strong, could you share your latest thoughts on how those margins could change over the next few years when Eraring closes? Whether the earnings from your current battery pipeline and VPP benefits could offset the closure?
Yeah, thanks, Henry. Good question. We originally put the AUD 25 MWh- AUD 40 MWh in to highlight the fact that, you know, we thought we could stay in that range once Eraring retired. The investments that we made in trying to get to our four to five gigawatt renewable and storage target, you know, were going to get us into that range. I think the key thing is that Eraring, you know, is probably making a stronger contribution than we would have forecast three or four years ago as the prices are sort of holding up. Really, the renewable transition has slowed a bit. I think that gives us the opportunity to bring those batteries into the portfolio. They'll make a pretty material contribution by the time you get through financial year 2026. We'll assess what other options are available to us, contracting and also potentially other investments.
Ultimately, I think coal will become, as more renewables come in and the middle of the day starts to get more and more hollowed out, then you start to see coal earnings start to fall regardless of whether you retire them or not. We're pretty confident we can hold in the middle of that range with the opportunities that are in front of us. When I say middle of the range, I'm saying within the range. I'm not pinpointing a range.
Okay, that's clear. Thank you. On gas markets, there's a lot of uncertainty on the best way to resolve the risk of peak gas shortfalls on the horizon through the frequency pipeline and storage capacity improvements, LNG imports, which will be tied to the closure of Eraring as well. In that context, could you share perspectives on how you think that risk of shortfall would be best resolved? How Origin might be able to play a part? I think we touched on earlier how that's factoring into the likelihood and requirements of extending Eraring beyond FY 2027.
Yeah, that's a very good question, Henry. Look, firstly, in the gas market, we are talking to all the counterparties about all those options of bringing more gas into, especially in the southern markets. The requirement with sort of decreasing Gippsland production is certainly winter peaking gas. The markets sort of manage that pretty well, certainly this year. Looking forward, we certainly think that an LNG import terminal would certainly assist this market. In saying that, we are also seeing producers, they're looking to develop some of their reserves and that's coming on to stream as well. We do think it's being pushed out a little bit and that's certainly what our email is saying as well. Longer term, we still think an LNG import option is certainly something we're interested in going forward.
Probably the other thing to add, Henry, on the rowing sort of theme on that question is, yeah, there's no doubt a rowing coming out forces gas-fired peaking to run harder, and that has a flow-on impact into MDQ and gas. That's one of the other considerations. I think if the government is and the market is looking at security across both fuels, we'll need to assess the impacts on both electricity and gas.
That makes sense. Thank you.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Calabria for any closing remarks.
Okay, thanks very much for joining the call this morning and thank you all for those questions. We look forward to meeting with many of our shareholders over the next several days, and you get an opportunity to meet with a number of the team as we get around to see you. Thanks very much, everyone.