Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Orica's 2023 Sustainability Investor Day. We do appreciate the time that you've taken to join us here in Sydney today, and to those who have joined us on the webcast globally. For those who I haven't met, I'm Delphine Cassidy, Chief Communications Officer. Before we start, I'd like to acknowledge the Gadigal clan of the Eora Nation, the traditional custodians of this land on which we meet today, and pay my respects to their elders, past and present. I extend that respect to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples here today. Secondly, on evacuation procedures, if there is an emergency and we do need to evacuate, you'll hear the whoop whoop tone. On hearing this tone, please move to the exits, which are at the back of the hall, and follow the instructions of the Fullerton staff.
The staff will then take you and will gather at the designated meeting space. Joining me today on my right is Sanjeev Gandhi, our Managing Director and CEO. Next to Sanjeev is Andy Stewart, our Chief Sustainability Officer and s ustainability and Development Officer. And to Andy's right is Leah Barlow, President SHES, Discrete Manufacturing and Supply. In the front row here, we've got Angus Melbourne, the Chief Technology Officer, who'll be presenting later. Kim Kerr is Chief Financial Officer, and Germán Morales, our Group Executive and President, AusPac. Also in the front row, to the left, is Bertus de Villiers, our Vice President, Continuous Manufacturing, and Troy Powell, Head of Sustainability. Both Bertus and Troy will also be presenting later in the agenda. We'll have plenty of time for Q&As after each section.
We'll take questions from the floor, as well as questions from the guests on the webcast. For those in the room, I ask that you put your hand up, and we'll get a microphone to you. We're also using the Slido facility for those on the webcast. You can access this by scanning the QR code that's on the webcast presentation. After you submit your question, your question can be up-voted by other participants. In light of time, we'll be starting with the questions that are most up-voted. Attendees in the room can also use Slido. The QR code is on your table. Today, we stand at the intersection and innovation, of innovation and sustainability. It's a pivotal moment in our shared journey towards a more sustainable future for tomorrow's generation and the generations thereafter.
While sustainability is a broad topic, today's session focuses on climate change because of its materiality to Orica. In a world where the urgent call for climate action reverberates louder than ever, we have embraced the challenge as both a responsibility and an opportunity. We understand that addressing climate change is not merely a moral imperative, but it's a sound business strategy, one that drives resilience, growth, and value creation. To us, decarbonization is not a destination but an ongoing commitment. It requires vision, dedication, and a willingness to adapt in a rapidly evolving landscape. Our commitment to decarbonization extends far beyond rhetoric. It's deeply woven in the fabric of Orica. We've embarked on a transformational journey that recognizes the critical role businesses play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, conserving natural resources, and advancing in global transition to a low-carbon economy.
It's with great pride and excitement that we will take you on a journey through our decarbonization roadmap today. We'll showcase innovative strategies, technologies, and partnerships that underpin our vision for a net zero future as we work towards sustainably mobilizing the Earth's resources. Our approach is structured and focused. It's guided by sustainability principles and bolstered by the collective expertise of our dedicated teams globally. As investors, your trust and support are instrumental in our journey towards sustainability, and we invite you to join us in this endeavor.
Together, we'll navigate the complexities of decarbonization, forging a path that not only reduces our environmental footprint, but also enhances our competitiveness in an increasingly sustainable, conscious marketplace. We're excited to share our vision, progress, and aspirations with you today, confident that by aligning our efforts, we can drive meaningful change and set new standards for a sustainable business in a world that demands nothing less. With that, I'll now hand over to Leah Barlow to open up today's briefing with the safety, health, and environmental update.
Thank you, Delphine, and welcome everyone. As always, safety remains our number one priority at Orica. This year, we're on track to achieve our safety targets and align with our priorities to remain fatality-free in FY 2023, and we have also achieved our serious injury case rate of 0.139 against our target of 0.149 in the first half. Although our safety numbers are tracking well this year, we remain vigilant and always strive for continuous improvement when it comes to safety. I would like to acknowledge the important progress we've made from the learnings following the two fatalities we reported last year. To further increase our awareness of our whistleblower process, we executed a global internal whistleblower education campaign in FY 2023 to ensure our people know when and how to report behaviors and incidents that go against our code of business conduct.
We also conducted a detailed review of our key controls in our MHM program, known as Major Hazard Management, which is our fatality prevention program. In particular, we did this relating to flyrock on mine sites and working at height risks in our operational sites. We've updated our procedures for working from heights to provide additional engineering controls and guidance. We've updated our controls for flyrock management and reviewed contractor management processes and requirements around monitoring work on site to ensure these incidents are never repeated in our business again. Our MHM program has continued to be successfully embedded across the organization, with 1,860 stops recorded in the first half of FY 2023. What does this mean?
This means that 1,860 times, our people in the frontline were empowered to stop work until they could be sure their key safety controls were in place. That's more than 10 times per day someone across our global operations prioritize their safety and that of their workmates by stopping work until they can be sure it is safe. Our MHM program helps us deliver an exceptional global safety culture and is on track to achieve a significant milestone this year, completing the first triennial cycle of the key control verifications, which are the key items that we check to make sure our hazards are in place. We've done that with over 50,000 controls across our business.
To enhance the MHM program, we further embedded our desired safety behaviors and outcomes, and we've started implementing a new safety leadership program that focuses on how leaders effectively gain trust and influence. The new program has been successfully rolled out in Asia, with high participant engagement and positive feedback, will continue to be rolled out as we'll roll it out more broadly in FY 2024. Safety for us is not only about controls and programs, but making it part of the culture of Orica. Both physical and psychological safety are extremely important for our people, and to ensure that our people feel safe and empowered to speak up against behavior that goes against our business code of conduct. We conducted a global psychosocial risk assessment to inform the global health strategy for FY 2024.
This will ensure we are better placed to support our team's mental health while at work and further empower people to use our whistleblower service. Finally, on safety, since COVID restrictions have eased, I've been able to visit a number of our operational sites globally, and it's been wonderful to see firsthand some of the safety improvements that we've made in the last few years and connect with our teams. To me, a sense of vulnerability is important to help us remain safe, both physically and psychologically. At the end of the day, the most important thing for our people, no matter which site or which part of the world that they are based in, is that everyone gets to go home to their family each day, and that's why safety remains our number one priority. Now, moving on to environment.
I'm pleased to report that we've continued to have zero serious environmental incidents since FY 2018, and our loss of containment and potable water intensity are also decreasing, remaining below target. A key part of our strategy at Orica is to champion a safer, more sustainable industry. We are focusing heavily on prevention activities, preventing loss of containment, and we are committed to a strong environmental stewardship. An important program we have in place to assess our individual sites' environmental risks and ways we can mitigate them is our Material Environmental Issues Review, otherwise known as the MEIR Review. Although each site has its own unique environmental risks and pathway, we apply a global environmental standard across all of the regions we operate in, going beyond local standards in some jurisdictions.
In our industry, it's important to acknowledge legacy practices that have been harmful to the environment. The environments in which we operate, including communities and cultural heritages, are of the utmost important to us, and environmental remediation makes up an important part of the approach to the natural environment around the world. An innovative example of environmental stewardship currently in operation at our Gomia site in India is a large-scale phytoremediation project, which is in place that uses plants to absorb and consume the contaminants, preventing them from spreading to surrounding areas. This approach has been highly effective, cost efficient, and fit for purpose. At a large scale, it is commercially viable, and using the learnings from Gomia, we're beginning to adopt this approach across other sites around the world.
Completed in collaboration with the regulators in India, the Gomia phytoremediation project is strongly aligned with our strategy at Orica, demonstrating partnering for progress. Our Gomia site received in 2022 an Environmental Excellence Award from the Indian Chamber of Commerce. Later on in the presentation, Angus will go over some of our products and technology that are helping our customers make blasting more efficient, less wasteful, and more sustainable. But by optimizing our operations and creating smarter solutions, we continue to innovate ways to lessen our industry's impact on the environment. Thank you very much. I'll now pass you over to Sanjeev for the business update.
Thanks, Leah. Morning, everybody. Thank you all for joining us today. Also a very warm welcome to everybody on the webcast. Hopefully, we make it useful and informative for you. As you know, we are deeply committed to the continued execution of our strategy and to deliver enduring returns for our shareholders and the broader stakeholder audience. Today, we take you through Orica's sustainability approach, our significant progress made already against our existing targets, and how we are accelerating our plans and creating commercial advantage for Orica and our shareholders and stakeholders as the world continues to aggressively decarbonize. But before that, I'll give you some updates on our operating business. I'm pleased to say that we've expected the 2023 full year results to be strong, in line with the guidance I gave at the first half in May 2023.
Our people have remained very strongly committed to delivering on our strategy and to continue Orica's very strong performance for the full year FY 2023. We do expect, as indicated, improvements in both trade working capital and operating cash flow in the second half, as a result of reduced inventory valuation and inventory volume optimization. The net finance costs for the second half are expected to be slightly lower than the first half of the financial year 2023. CapEx for the full year is expected to be at the upper end of AUD 400 million-AUD 420 million, which was the guidance we gave for the full year. Due to the complex operating environment and U.S. sanctions imposed on Venezuela, Orica ceased operations in the country in 2019. We have now confirmed that we will exit the country.
Orica is finalizing a sale of the legal entities and expects us to complete this during September 2023. The estimated loss on sale, including the non-cash impact of reclassifying historical amounts deferred in the Foreign Currency Translation Reserv e, or FCTR, is currently estimated to be AUD 20 million after tax. This will be reported as an individually significant item. Looking ahead into FY 2024, the strength of the underlying business performance is expected to continue as a result of ongoing execution of the strategy, very strong focus on commercial discipline, strong customer demand, and increased earnings from our blasting and digital tech offerings, which scale up very, very very well. We do have a significant number of major turnarounds scheduled in the first half of FY 2024. I'll provide a bit more detail on this.
Orica continues to remain cautious of external challenges from geopolitics, inflationary pressures, and higher energy costs. The business is committed to continue ongoing cost efficiency initiatives to reduce the impact from these external factors. Our prudent balance sheet also positions us well to manage the volatile external environment, supporting further business growth and seeking to deliver improved shareholder results. Turning now to our continuous manufacturing plant turnaround schedule. On the left, you'll see the turnarounds we have done in FY 2023, both in the first half of the year and the second half. I'm pleased to say that the continuous manufacturing and maintenance team have done a fantastic job of executing on all of these major turnarounds in time, on schedule, and in a safe manner, and this is a lot of work. So well done.
Bertus, who is the head of our continuous manufacturing, will come up here and talk a little bit later about the good work the team is doing. In the second half of the year, we also had scheduled maintenance, as I pointed out in the first half of the year. All of those have been now successfully concluded. All assets are up and running. If you turn our attention to FY 2024, and you just compare the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2024, you see that very intense schedule of 5 separate events that we will have in the first half of 2024. This is unprecedented. The reason being we'll be shutting down our ammonia assets.
This is a once in six year cycle, so the last time we did that was in 2017, and this is a major, major event for the Kooragang Island site. Remember, this plant is nearly 70 years old, so every turnaround, every shut of this asset is a major challenge. Obviously we'll spend a lot of time, effort, and resources in maintenance, renewing the assets, and ensuring that this continues to operate safely and successfully going forward. Now, obviously, ammonia is a very critical feedstock for us, and we not only consume ammonia to make ammonium nitrate at Kooragang Island, but we also support Yarwun. So we'll be missing significant volumes of ammonia.
Now, we do not have storage at the Kooragang Island site, and this means that we'll have to use our own network to source in products so that we are able to continue to supply to our customers. This obviously comes at a cost. So the first half, especially here in Australia, margins will be impacted by the higher cost of the turnarounds and the fact that we do not have ammonia to make ammonium nitrate. So we will be importing in a lot of product to continue to cater to the customer needs. We'll also be, you know, making investments in the prill tower to remove dusting. This is again, an ESG-driven activity, where we'll spend, you know, significant capital to improve the air quality in and around the Kooragang Island.
That's a major project for us. That also happens in the first half. That's again, a one-off. It normally does not happen. So this means for the first half, we're going to be extremely busy. And for those of you who go to visit the Kooragang Island site tomorrow, you'll see that the contractors are already there, the scaffolds are up, the laydown areas are prepared, and we are ready to go, as of October with the turnaround. The second half is more normal. If you compare the second half of this year versus the second half of the upcoming financial year, that's more normal, and so there's not anything that I want to call out for the second half.
So just to focus that on the first half, we'll have the once-in-six-year ammonia turnaround, and this means that the Australian business will get impacted. I will obviously, when we come up with our results in November, offer a bit more detail. This is just more of a bit of a heads up for what's happening in FY 2024. Now, coming to our new targets for ESG. I'm extremely pleased to announce Orica's accelerated climate change targets and introduction of a new ambition to tackle our most material Scope 3 emissions. Since 2019, Orica has established a set of credible, evidence-based targets addressing actions on climate change and other areas across ESG.
We have invested responsibility to deliver significant reductions in our operational net Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions to date, and we expect a total reduction of around 19% at the end of FY 2023, from a baseline of 2019. So that's material and significant. Importantly, these achievements, together with increased policy certainty by the Australian Government, gives us confidence to accelerate our climate change commitments and accountability. We have introduced a new short-term target to reduce our net Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 30% by 2026. So we are at 19% today, and we are expecting to reduce by 30% by 2026 from the 2019 baseline levels. More importantly, we have increased our target to reduce net Scope 1 and 2 emissions by at least 45% by 2030, from 2019 levels.
This is a significant uplift from our previous 40% commitment. Secondly, we remain committed to our existing renewable electricity targets with the aim of sourcing 60% renewable electricity by 2030 and 100% by 2040. We look forward to working with the government and industry to accelerate renewable electricity availability across our key operating markets. Grid connectivity is critical here. Finally, we realize Scope 3 is a material portion of our overall emissions profile, and following more than three years of detailed analysis, supplier and customer engagement, we have introduced a new ambition to reduce Scope 3 emissions by 25% by 2035, from 2022 baseline levels. We recognize the challenge of addressing emissions across our value chain and are committed to partnering with our suppliers and customers to work towards this ambition.
Critically, these accelerated targets and new ambition further support our long-term ambition to to achieve net zero by latest 2050. We have expanded the boundary of our 2050 net zero ambition to include material Scope 3 emissions arising from purchased goods and services and use of Orica's sold products, sold products, primarily bulk explosive detonation. Consistent with our climate change policy, Orica supports the Paris Agreement, and these targets and ambitions have been informed by science-based methods and Paris-aligned trajectories. Our accelerated targets are based on the execution of an evidence-based roadmap, and introduction of our Scope 3 ambition allows for the development of further actions to enhance our pathway towards achieving net zero by 2050. Through our initiative, we aim to collaborate and help our customers to achieve their own sustainability goals.
Our efforts to decarbonize move us towards producing low carbon products and solutions, helping to enable the reduction of our customers' value chain emission challenges. The industry's transition to net zero is complex. It requires technical advancements and policies to incentivize the marginal cost of decarbonization, and this will enable hard-to-abate industries like ourselves to advance these initiatives while maintaining competitive advantage in a growing, complex international landscape. We believe Orica is well positioned to support this transition. These accelerated targets and new ambitions complement our overarching investment proposition. They are all part of driving our sustainability agenda and helping our customers achieve their targets while remaining competitive in a low-carbon future and delivering growth and maximizing value for our shareholders and our stakeholders. It's a great time to be in resources.
Mining is at the core of the energy transition, and the race to net zero and the future-facing commodities will fuel the next wave of growth for mining. This graph shows the estimated absolute change in commodity demand in 2040 versus 2020, with the dark blue color aligned to 1.5 degrees on net zero scenario, and the light blue at a three degree scenario. We can see the vast delta on demands for future-facing commodities. There's significant growth forecast in base metals, including copper and nickel, and even greater demand for other future-facing commodities such as cobalt, lithium, graphite, manganese, et cetera. Across copper, we're seeing lower recoveries and grade declines as brownfield expansion continues to be favored over greenfield development.
Both brownfield and greenfield development presents a significant opportunity, and Orica's technology will play a pivotal role in locating and extracting resources more safely, efficiently, and responsibly. Quarrying and construction will continue to grow in both scenarios, linked to infra investments and industrialization in developing world. Large government-committed infra projects, including the INR 1.35 trillion infrastructure development bill in India and the $1 trillion infrastructure bill in the US, are supporting that growth. Another key opportunity for Orica in both scenarios. Gold will likely to continue to be a safe haven, haven asset over the next couple of years as volatility in the global geopolitical environment and economy continue. Looking at coal, global thermal coal production is expected to decline by 40% by 2040.
For Australia, in the short term, we expect export growth to outpace domestic decline, and we will continue to serve our customers through this transition as they move away from coal. Meeting the demand on future-facing commodities will require safer and more productive access to challenging ore bodies, and we will need to do this even more responsibly. That's where Orica's purpose and strategy culminates, enabling our customers to sustainably mobilize the Earth's resources by delivering solutions and technology that drive safety, productivity for customers, while also helping them to achieve their sustainability goals. Orica can play a critical role supporting the energy transition, and we are positioning our business for a low-carbon world. We've been focusing on increasing business resilience by diversifying our commodity exposure and customers as we continue to grow our business and reduce our emission footprint.
Our exposure to copper increased by 70% between FY 2019 and FY 2023. Future-facing commodities demand continues to present a significant opportunity, and Orica is in a strong position to take advantage of this long-term trend. As at the half year, our exposure to thermal coal is now 14%. 10 years back, this was 35%. This has been achieved by diversifying our business and increasing our exposure to new commodities. Finally, we are leveraging our competitive position to further position our business for the future. We're doing this by firstly strengthening and streamlining our global manufacturing network to support the changing commodity demand and delivering security of supply for our customers globally. Secondly, we will continue to grow adoption of our unique technology offerings across blasting and beyond blasting.
With our newly established Orica Digital Solutions business delivering solutions across the mining value chain from mine to mill. This slide just shows you one example of the opportunities ahead of Orica. Lithium, a critical mineral to support the energy transition. According to WoodMac, global lithium demand will increase by 150% to achieve global net zero emissions for the global economies by 2050. Australia is a key supplier with 45% of global supply and 60% of global hard rock lithium reserves. Orica has been playing a vital role in helping the industry, with strong presence in the region, servicing more than 50% of the Australian lithium industry, leveraging both our core blasting and digital solution products and solutions to achieve this.
Angus will talk a little bit more about how our technologies and solutions help our customers better locate new and exploit existing ore resources, especially in the future-facing commodities such as lithium, and that's just one example. As we execute our strategy and deliver on our decarbonization commitments, we have embedded a disciplined approach towards the assessment of CapEx. All capital expenditure relating to safety, environmental, or regulatory requirements are prioritized, while other capital expenditure, including sustainability, is subject to financial hurdles and ranked according to a rigorous prioritization process. This prudent approach positions Orica well to manage volatility, support further business growth, deliver on our sustainability commitments while delivering improved shareholder returns.
A good example of this capital allocation framework in action is with our recent tertiary abatement investments across our continuous sites in Carseland in Canada and Kooragang Island on the east coast of Australia, where we have partnered with government to co-fund these investments while delivering a significant approximately 40% reduction in Orica's global emissions at a marginal cost of less than $10 per tonne. Importantly, decarbonizing our explosives mean our customers are being offered a less emissions-intensive product, helping them to address their ESG goals while growing our competitive advantage. Another example is our plans to construct a new 30,000 tonne ammonia tank in the vicinity of Kooragang Island, providing the site with strategic flexibility and optionality for future operations, including the potential to export and import low-carbon ammonia. Andy and Bertus will cover this a little bit more later.
One final example is our partnership with Origin on the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, which you'll hear about more today. Establishing a renewable hydrogen industry in the Hunter region has real potential for opening up export markets. By partnering with government and by taking advantage of our unique location, existing operations, experience, and end markets, we are not only addressing some of our most material greenhouse gas emissions, but we are also creating future new markets for Orica to operate as the world transitions. As we consider the future, I firmly believe that collective action is necessary to tackle climate change. Orica is a great example of the challenges faced by Australian-based manufacturers and producers in hard-to-abate industries. In the short and midterm, we confront geopolitical disruptions, inflation, uncertainty in climate and energy policy, adding to the volatility of input costs and fluctuating demand.
We obviously need help from the government. Firstly, policy certainty will enable businesses to have confidence to invest. The Safeguard Mechanism reforms passed in the Australian Parliament this year have brought renewed policy confidence and investment certainty for Orica in our decarbonization plans. It demonstrates that with the right policy settings and corporate commitments, emission reduction is possible in hard-to-abate and expensive-to-abate industries. Secondly, supporting industry during the transition will be critical. Natural gas is an important transition fuel, a key input into domestic manufacturing as the economy decarbonizes. For Orica, natural gas is a critical feedstock. It's used to manufacture crucial products for the resource and agriculture sector.
We welcome the ongoing government consultation process and the Future Gas Strategy . We'll continue to engage on how best to ensure both reliable supply and competitive and sustainable pricing. Another important consideration is the introduction of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM. A CBAM will ensure a level playing field, so that the Australian industry is not unfairly competing against imported products from countries with less mature carbon pricing regimes. It also reduces the risk of carbon leakage out of Australia. Orica will be participating in the CBAM consultations in Australia with the federal government.
Government grants will also play a key role in assisting the transition, and by supporting credible projects and first movers will accelerate the transition. Finally, government also plays a key role in facilitating new opportunities in a low-carbon world. Government support like the Hydrogen Headstart program, this is crucial to define the opportunities and the ways we can accelerate Australia's renewable hydrogen industry. By opening doors and driving demand through international markets, we will see opportunities for renewable hydrogen beyond Australia. I'll now hand over to Andy, our Chief Development and Sustainability Officer, to take you through in detail on our approach to climate change at Orica.
Thank you. Thank you, Sanjeev, and good morning all. In today's world, strategy and sustainability belong hand in glove, and at the start of this financial year, Orica brought the two together under one umbrella. It's an example of our intent to continue to evolve our operating model to make sure that we reinforce strategic delivery. At Orica, sustainable solutions is obviously core to everything that we do for obvious reasons. We make, transport, and trade explosives and dangerous goods. We operate in more than 100 markets, and each presents unique complexities. We are a heavy manufacturer in a hard-to-abate sector, and our workforce brings together a truly diverse mix of values and cultures. In this context, my primary responsibility is to make sure Orica generates compelling investor returns that are consistent into the future.
That Orica delivers solutions that are relevant to our evolving customer needs, and that Orica continues to meet societal, employee, and broader stakeholder expectations. At the intersection of shareholder returns, customer relevance, and stakeholder expectations is an enduring business model, and Orica is very proud to celebrate next year our 150th birthday. As I'm sure you'd appreciate, for a publicly traded company in today's world, that's an extraordinary achievement that we're very proud of. It demonstrates the way that Orica has evolved, how it has differentiated itself through innovation, and how it has maintained enduring barriers to entry in a rapidly evolving marketplace. The momentum behind Orica's climate change journey is unstoppable. Appropriately, Orica started this journey by focusing on decarbonizing our own business, the emissions that we directly control.
You will soon hear of the prioritized projects implemented to deliver material emissions reduction at the lowest available cost of abatement. Pleasingly, we have materially reduced our Scope 1 and 2 emissions, while concurrently growing sales revenue and ammonium nitrate volumes. It's this combination of growth and Scope 1 and 2 emissions reduction that now requires a more wholesome set of public commitments. Hence, today we are introducing our initial Scope 3 position. Our journey continues to evolve. Not only are we continuing to drive down Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, but we are also focused on creating competitive advantage through our decarbonization activities. Accordingly, we have structured today into two parts. Part A will focus on how Orica is decarbonizing its own business and doing so faster than we anticipated a year earlier.
We will then move into part B, which will talk about how we are developing and offering a portfolio of sustainable solutions to our customers. Our expectation is that Orica's ESG-focused solutions will deliver an even more compelling customer proposition over time. This will, in turn, drive margin and form an increasing proportion of our profitability. Orica has set a clear and evidence-based abatement pathway to achieve our ambition of net zero emissions by 2050 or sooner. Both our corporate strategy and capital planning are aligned to meeting the short- and midterm milestones detailed along this pathway, as can be evidenced by the slide on the screen. As Sanjeev mentioned, Orica is confidently accelerating its climate change commitments. We are introducing a new short-term target for Scope 1 and 2 to 2026.
We are strengthening our medium-term target for Scope 1 and 2 to 2030. We are introducing a Scope 3 roadmap and ambition to 2035, and we are updating our boundary conditions for our net zero achievement by 2050 to include emissions from the use of our purchased and produced goods. Our hope is that you see this as a wholesale set of public commitments along our decarbonization pathway. Let me add some depth and color to our decarbonization pathway and the rationale for uplifting our commitments today. Tertiary abatement is only one step in decarbonizing Orica, and what a great result has been achieved. Once we complete the tertiary abatement installation at Yarwun next year, this alongside Kooragang Island and Carseland, will measurably remove over 900,000 tons per annum of carbon dioxide equivalent from our business.
Tertiary abatement has not only reduced emissions, but it has also improved shareholder returns, principally by generating carbon credits that avoid material penalties under Australia's Safeguard Mechanism. It has also enhanced our reputation among the communities in which we operate and confirmed our credentials as an employer invested in the transition. Beyond tertiary abatement, we now turn our attention to our remaining material Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions, namely, the CO2 released from our ammonia plant at Kooragang Island, which comes from the cracking of natural gas to make hydrogen feedstock. This is why we are co-developing the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub with Origin. Today, we make hydrogen from steam methane reforming natural gas, and this project will enable us to displace natural gas and make hydrogen from electrolysis using renewable power. I will talk more about this later.
I said earlier, we wanted to address all of our emissions, Scope 1, 2, and 3, and accordingly, we have completed a comprehensive inventory of our Scope 3 emissions profile that has enabled us to progress an initial roadmap on these emissions. Doing so requires us to partner with suppliers and customers throughout the value chain. Delivering our new Scope 3 emissions relies upon our ammonia and ammonium nitrate suppliers delivering their existing climate commitments, increasing the use of renewable diesel in our business, removing hydrofluorocarbon blast bags from operations, and rolling out Orica's 4D blasting technology. All of these activities make Orica future ready now. Culture is an important element of the transformation we are presenting today. We have worked hard to create a ground-up approach to a culture of emissions reduction.
In FY 2023, we launched our Net Zero Fund alongside our Community Impact Fund. This gives our employees in each of our five regions an opportunity to have local decarbonization initiatives funded. This includes projects such as electrification, conversion of site power to renewables, securing energy efficiencies, or working with local communities on renewable projects. These actions touch every part of our organization, and we are building a sustainability culture at every level within the business to complement our priority focus on safety. As we've mentioned, we've made significant progress to reduce our Scope 1 and 2 emissions, and we're really proud of this graph because it shows demonstrable emissions reduction. At the end of FY 2023, in a couple of weeks, we anticipate at least a 19% reduction in our Scope 1 and 2 emissions from our 2019 baseline year.
It is this performance that has given us the confidence to uplift and accelerate our targets today. Across KI and Carseland, tertiary catalyst abatement is reducing oxide emissions, nitric oxide emissions by at least 95% from unabated levels. This means we're in a position to accelerate our 2030 target from 40% to at least 45%. We do not believe there are many other domestic manufacturers in the hard-to-abate sector who have not only accelerated ambitious public targets, but have also delivered genuine, absolute emissions reduction. This approach puts us in good standing with governments, regulators, customers, as we partner on further projects to reduce our emissions while supporting other stakeholders address theirs.
If we move now beyond Scope 1 and 2, and as I mentioned, we've spent over three years of analysis and engagement with suppliers and customers to deeply understand our Scope 3 profile, and most importantly, the Scope 3 emissions we control, those that we can influence, and those that we can only solve through partnership. Scope 3 accounts for about 77% of Orica's overall emissions today, so we wanted to make sure our public commitments also incorporate an ambition on reducing Scope 3. Language is important, and we have used Scope 3 ambition deliberately because this refers to a goal we are aiming to achieve, have an indicative pathway, but need to better understand the ability to deliver reductions beyond our sphere of direct control.
As part of our Scope 3 work, we have a number of purchase agreements in early development, whereby we intend to introduce low-carbon Ammonium Nitrate into our global supply network. We've signed MOUs and letter of intents in both the EMEA and LATAM regions to bring low-carbon Ammonium Nitrate to those customers interested in low carbon blasting. We are also continuing to improve our product and solutions portfolio to help our customers reduce their own emissions, and this is creating differentiation. Angus will share more on this shortly under the banner of Orica Sustainable Solutions. We also acknowledge that markets, investors, and the broader community want transparency and accountability to ensure themselves that companies are doing what they say they will do, and are successfully navigating their way through the transition challenges and opportunities.
With this in mind, we will shortly issue our Climate Action Report ahead of a Say on Climate vote at this year's annual general meeting. Our Climate Action Report is an ongoing commitment to provide as much transparency and disclosure on climate change strategy and performance as is possible. We also anticipate the response to the report will provide valuable feedback from our stakeholders on our planning and our forward execution. I hope you find the report detailed and helpful. Our Climate Action Report aligns to the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, TCFD, a voluntary disclosure framework. This has positioned us well for implementation of a mandatory climate reporting regime from Orica's financial year, FY 2025.
In addition, we will continue to positively engage and learn from multiple stakeholder groups, particularly Climate Action 100+ and various rating agencies, to ensure our plans and our progress are well articulated and continue to meet the expectations of our stakeholders. Our accelerated climate targets announced today have, in part, been informed by this rich dialogue. Finally, I want to touch on Orica's industry associations. These associations offer opportunities to share good practice and collaborate on issues of importance in our sector, from contributing to the development of safe work practices, through to working with regulators, knowledge sharing, and providing professional development. Industry associations are important to us, and we will continue to make these arrangements transparent in our Climate Action Report. Furthermore, in November, we will, for the first time, release our industry association review report as part of Orica's annual corporate reporting suite.
To be absolutely clear, where alignment with Orica's climate position and that of the Paris Accord cannot be achieved, and where we are unable to positively influence an association, we will leave. On that note, it now gives me great pleasure to introduce you to Bertus de Villiers, our Vice President of Continuous Manufacturing at Orica, to give more detail about the solutions to our Scope 1 and 2 emissions reduction at our most material sites.
Thank you, Andy. In my role, I oversee our global continuous manufacturing plants, which contribute over 90% of Orica's operational emissions. We operate nine nitric acid plants globally. The production of nitric acid generates emissions of nitrous oxide, which is a greenhouse gas 265 times more potent than carbon dioxide. 50% of our Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions in financial year 2022 were generated from our nitric acid plants, specifically the generation of nitrous oxide process gases. One of our competitive advantages of operating a global network is the ability to replicate the abatement technology across our operations.
Our first tertiary abatement unit was successfully installed at our Carseland manufacturing plant in Canada in 2021, in partnership with the Alberta government, contributing to a reduction of more than 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent since installation. I'd like to share a video from our site manager at our Carseland facility, Tristan Steventon , who will talk more about the project and overall effectiveness of this tertiary abatement technology at our Carseland facility.
Nitric Acid Plant One was first commissioned in 1977, and is the largest nitric acid plant in Orica's operation in Carseland, Canada. It has progressively improved operational throughput and implemented technology enhancements throughout its operational life. The latest of these is tertiary abatement of nitrous oxide. With the project commencing back in 2019, Orica Carseland is proud to be an early adopter of the exciting new tertiary abatement technology. The project was commissioned by Orica, along with ThyssenKrupp, and key constructors at the end of 2021. It was great that during this time, there was significant support provided by the Alberta government. Nitrous oxide is an intense greenhouse gas. As a result, tertiary abatement is a very effective technical solution to nitrous oxide emissions that are generated through the production of nitric acid.
The abatement has reduced greenhouse gas emissions from Carseland by approximately 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per annum, the equivalent of 22,000 cars being taken off the road. The process works by taking the waste gases from the nitric acid production process and reacting them within the abatement unit. The nitrous oxide is reacted with very small amounts of hydrocarbons over a catalyst, specifically designed to convert the nitrous oxides into nitrogen and water. The project was implemented at the same time as Orica installed a NOx abatement system. While NOx is not a greenhouse gas, this implementation has simultaneously contributed to a major reduction in the emissions profile of the facility.
Moving on, this slide shows the location of our four global continuous manufacturing plants on the left, and the accumulative or expected reduction on each of our plants as we progressively roll out the decarbonization projects, which includes tertiary abatement technology to significantly reduce our emissions. As you heard from Tristan and see in these charts, the installation of the technology at our Carseland site, in addition to secondary catalyst technology in operation on the nitric acid plant two on site, has been very effective in reducing our emissions profile. We're currently seeing a site greenhouse gas Scope 1 and 2 reduction of 41% compared to the site's 2019 greenhouse gas baseline, aligned with our expectations and very... which is very pleasing.
We are now well-positioned to offer low-carbon ammonium nitrate products to our customers, to support their sustainability efforts and enable them to decarbonize, too. Continuing that progress, in financial year 2023, we've deployed tertiary abatement technology at all three our nitric acid plants at Kooragang- at the Kooragang Island site in Newcastle, Australia, which is now fully operational. Tertiary catalyst technology has mitigated 98% of nitrous oxide emissions from our nitric acid production, with site-wide Scope 1 and 2 emissions now 30% below the 2019 baselines. Following a full year of operation, we expect around 48% of the site's total greenhouse gas emissions to be removed, or, eleven percent of all the chemical industry process emissions across Australia.
This project will continue to eliminate around 567,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent from the site each year, which is equivalent to removing around 120,000 cars from the New South Wales roads annually. This is just one step we are taking to decarbonize our Kooragang Island facility. As you will hear more from Andy, we are exploring renewable hydrogen opportunities with Origin. We are also working with our partners, MCI, to demonstrate carbon capture in solid form from the ammonia plant off gas stream on the KI facility, while working on sourcing renewable forms of electricity, which I'll touch on further shortly.
As Sanjeev mentioned, we also have preliminary plans to construct a 30,000-ton ammonia tank in the vicinity of our Kooragang Island plant, which would provide the site with strategic flexibility for our operations, including the potential to export low-carbon ammonia. This project is underway to determine location and design details. Now turning to our Bontang facility. In the last year, we've worked hard to find an effective secondary abatement catalyst. We've replaced the secondary abatement catalyst on the nitric acid plant, which is forecasted to significantly reduce the Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 55%, compared to the site's 2019 baseline. And lastly, our Yarwun facility.
In the 2023 financial year, we installed an improved secondary abatement catalyst on our nitric acid plant 3, and we're now seeing a 20% improvement in nitrous oxide abatement efficiency in this plant. Continuing on our progress, this year we also announced that we would proceed with the final investment decision to deploy tertiary abatement technology at our Yarwun manufacturing facility for our nitric acid plants one and two, which would be installed during the next suitable maintenance shutdown. This project is expected to reduce the Scope 1 emissions from the site by around another 200,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
To help us to achieve our strengthened climate targets, both secondary and tertiary abatement technology will be important, but we must also begin to transition our operations towards more renewable forms of electricity. As you've heard from Sanjeev earlier, Orica is committed to sourcing 100% renewable electricity by 2040... with an interim step of 60% by 2030. As part of our offsite efforts to achieve this target and secure renewable electricity at a renewable electricity source in Australia, in financial year 2022, Orica entered a power purchase agreement with Lightsource BP for renewable electricity generated by its Wellington North Solar Farm in New South Wales, which will become operational in 2025.
As part of the PPA, the Wellington North Solar Farm will supply around 50% of Orica's Australian electricity needs, which is equivalent to powering around 19,000 of New South Wales residences every year. This will also reduce Orica's global Scope 2 emissions by over 60,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. Orica's, globally, Orica's proportion of electricity sourced from renewables will be around 30% once the Wellington North is fully operational. Furthermore, the Lurín operation in Peru has now converted to 100% renewable electricity in February of this year, adding to a further 1.7% renewable electricity usage onto Orica's global electricity consumption profile.
In regards to our on-site efforts, we will continue to deploy on-site renewable infrastructure across our sites and offices globally, and some of these examples are: the installation of a 500 kW system that we installed in Gomia, in India, in 2015, and two, a 34- and a 78 kW system, respectively, that were installed at our GroundProbe head office in Brisbane in 2021, and a 32 kW system installed at our Monclova office in Mexico in 2023. Over the coming years, Orica will proactively evolve its approach to energy procurement and secure renewable electricity partnerships to support this transition by sourcing renewable electricity in the various regions when economically viable. Over the last several years, we have gained confidence and are taking an action over ambition approach to sustainability.
Using learnings and knowledge from activities, including sourcing of renewable electricity, implementing abatement technology, and transitioning to renewable hydrogen, allowing us to apply a consistent and proven approach to reducing emissions across our extensive global network. By accelerating our approach to decarbonization and creating more innovative and sustainable solutions, we are playing our role to advance a safer and more sustainable industry and society. I will now hand over to our Head of Sustainability, Troy Powell, to talk in more depth about the carbon markets and our decarbonization efforts. Thank you.
Thank you, Bertus. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining this morning. Today, I'm going to share how some of our decarbonization work, just highlighted all the way around the world, is in fact, in part, enabled through carbon markets. I will cover three aspects. Firstly, our participation in key global carbon markets. Secondly, meeting obligations of emissions trading schemes where we operate. And thirdly, the role of offsetting in our pathway towards net zero emissions. But first, let's take a moment just to understand the different types of carbon markets and Orica's interactions with some regulatory schemes. Global carbon markets are developed to encourage businesses, just like Orica, to find cost-effective ways to invest and reduce emissions, and they provide a framework for international, national, or corporate targets to be achieved at lowest available cost. A carbon market is ultimately underpinned by tradable credits.
Each carbon credit represents one ton of emissions avoidance or removal from the atmosphere and is exchanged within a defined framework. On this slide, you can broadly see that there are two types of carbon markets globally: compliance and voluntary markets. Compliance markets are created by national, regional governments and subsequent regulatory requirements. Entities with an obligation to reduce their emissions below a regulatory or emissions limit may do so directly, for example, by investing and installing in low emissions technology to reduce their emissions. Alternatively, they may purchase or surrender carbon credits from another entity that allow them to compensate or offset their emissions to remain below regulatory limits. Now, trading activity in these compliance markets is most typically limited to the pool of regulated entities only, and not into broader secondary and voluntary markets.
Turning to voluntary markets, you can see here that they operate outside of those compliance market mechanisms. These national and international schemes work in very similar ways, comprising activities such as carbon project development, credit issuance by standard setters, carbon credit trading, but all on a voluntary basis. Now, scaling and improving carbon markets is vital for the achievement of net zero emissions. The integrity of carbon credits matters for everyone across the carbon supply chain, and at Orica, we've been demonstrating strong governance and transparency in this area. I'll now turn to focus on Orica's participation in two key carbon markets, here in Australia and also in Alberta, Canada. The governments of Australia and Alberta in Canada have put in place emissions trading schemes to incentivize heavy industry to reduce their emissions.
These trading schemes are an effective climate policy, and Orica supports government efforts to meet their national ambitions and emissions reduction targets and Paris Agreement commitments. Now, operating profitably and successfully in these schemes is not new to Orica. Our Carseland facility in Alberta has been subject to a market mechanism since 2007. Here in Australia, our Kooragang Island manufacturing facility and the Yarwun Nitrates manufacturing in Queensland have been covered by the Safeguard Mechanism since 2016. Now, the size of each market in each of these jurisdictions ultimately reflects its maturity and, of course, the historical national ambition for industrial abatement. While we at Orica have formed a view on each market's forward trajectory, we expect ongoing price development, which means Orica's strategy to form a position in carbon markets and avoid being a demand-side purchaser is increasingly being validated.
I'll return to this point in a moment on the next slide. Now, as you heard earlier this morning, Orica's continuous manufacturing plants dominate our global greenhouse gas emissions profile. In Australia, 82% of our operational emissions are covered by Australia's emissions trading scheme, the Safeguard Mechanism. In Alberta, it's now only 2%. The deployment of Tertiary Abatement technology, energy efficiency, and other low emissions opportunities has, particularly at Carseland, has almost completely mitigated any exposure to the emissions regulation in Alberta. As we look ahead, with Tertiary Abatement underway in Australia and more opportunities to reduce emissions with other technologies, the proportion of emissions regulated at that site will also reduce over time. You can see that moving early to materially decarbonize our assets is helping avoid tightening emissions regulation and potential financial penalty.
But it's also increased the optionality to Orica to meet those obligations under regulation and emissions trading schemes. Let me explain a little bit more in detail. On the left of this slide, we've shown two main parts of Australia's carbon market: what's known as the voluntary ACCU Scheme, formerly the Emissions Reduction Fund, and the Safeguard Mechanism, shown by a simplistic declining emissions limit in light blue. For Orica, we participate in both these schemes, with the two being interconnected. Let me start with the voluntary ACCU Scheme. Orica has registered two carbon abatement projects under that scheme, both at Kooragang Island and at Yarwun. Now, this affords us the ability to be credited Australian Carbon Credit Units, or ACCUs, for the real emissions reductions that we realize over the next seven years.
Where our gross emissions, represented by the dark blue line, are below a historical baseline, we generate ACCUs each year. This is shown as the broad gray shading on the chart. Our intention was to de-risk and underwrite our tertiary capital investments. We did this by securing optional carbon abatement contracts with the Australian government through a reverse auction mechanism. Here, the ACCUs delivered back to the government receive a confidential, modest fixed price and are also deemed as surrendered. This deemed surrendering allows us to receive that modest financial return and reduce and claim an emissions reduction towards achieving our corporate targets and meeting our Safeguard obligations. Now, the reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism that closed this year have introduced a little more complexity to Orica's arrangements, but stay with me and let me continue....
The assessment against Safeguard emissions limits or baselines is on a net emissions basis, and takes account of the carbon credits that Orica accrues over time. As we look ahead, we will manage our pool of carbon credits to meet compliance by delivering those ACCUs through our abatement contracts with the Australian government, represented here above the light blue Safeguard limit. Now, any excess ACCUs are likely to be held on our register as a hedge for future tightening emissions obligations as the government reviews progress at five-year intervals. Critically, Orica is avoiding penalty and has maintained flexibility and optionality as a result of the Safeguard Mechanism reforms. Our position is unique among the 215 Safeguard liable entities in Australia. Pleasingly, the Australian government recognized Orica's voluntary and early moves, and has honored the previous regulatory and contractual arrangements that Orica had in place during the reforms.
We are well-placed to meet our safeguard obligations. Positioning ourselves on the supply side of the carbon market is also now being validated. Finally, on the other side of this slide, in Alberta, the TIER scheme works much like the safeguard mechanism here in Australia. Below emissions limit performance is rewarded with the issuance of what's called emissions performance credits. Above emissions limit obligations must be negated through credit purchases and surrender as part of the scheme, and trading occurs within the pool of liable entities only within Alberta. Again, Orica's early move to deploy tertiary catalyst abatement means we anticipate remaining below declining emissions limits for some time. As I said, it is evident that carbon markets and Orica's participation on the supply side are playing an important role in our enabling our decarbonization. Let me now turn to the role of offsetting in Orica's net zero pathway.
Orica's absolute priority is to avoid and reduce our direct emissions at lowest available cost. As you have heard today, our focus is action over ambition, and this means avoiding compensating emissions via voluntary carbon offsetting over the short term. We are executing on energy efficiency, renewable electricity, tertiary catalyst abatement projects, all representing strong investment cases. In part, this success is enabled through our positioning to capture the value from carbon markets. Now, as we look ahead to the long term, some emission sources are challenging to eliminate completely. I refer here to abating emissions from ammonia production, from the complex processes we have in place that generate high temperature heat and steam in our manufacturing plants. Today, our net zero roadmap and modeling identifies around 15% residual emissions, potentially requiring offsetting to achieve net zero in the long term.
We anticipate that this proportion will change over time, and in response to the pace and scale at which low emissions technology is being commercialized and deployed around the world. Accordingly, we're commencing planning now to shift our carbon market participation from carbon avoidance towards accessing future carbon credits that represent the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. We're formulating a global carbon market strategy, and we're well positioned to execute on those existing positions that we have in Australia and Canada.
Finally, offsetting emissions that we cannot eliminate actually allows us to take more immediate action to counterbalance these emissions, or in fact, respond to rapidly evolving needs and markets of our customers, particularly in Northern Europe and other advanced economies, where differentiated product solutions, potentially involving offsetting, will meet their needs. In conclusion, carbon markets and offsetting are critical decarbonization enablers. They are an essential activity as we aim towards achieving our ambition of net zero emissions over the long term. Thank you, and I'll now hand back to Delphine to facilitate a Q&A session.
Thanks, Troy. So for those on the webcast, please go through Slido and put your questions in there, and I'll voice them. Let's start with questions from the floor. We've got two microphones. Put your hand up and they'll come to you.
Oh, I think that I've snuck in. Thank you. Scott Ryall from Rimor Equity Research. I'll try and give Sanjeev's voice a bit of a rest. I think this one's for Andrew anyway. Could yo u mentioned H2U up in Gladstone. Obviously, that's a bit behind the Stanwell project. So can you just talk to your positioning? O n both, please? And then the other question I had was around ammonia storage at Kooragang Island. I think you mentioned 30,000 tons of storage. Could you just remind us what you, what storage you have currently? And so I'm just trying to get a sense of materiality of the uplift, and also whether you have space to expand further beyond that. Thank you.
Yeah, thanks, Scott. Welcome the questions. So first of all, I'll talk in detail about our renewable hydrogen plans and ambitions shortly in the next section. In a nutshell, we're very focused on the most cost-competitive route for renewable hydrogen in our business today, and that is at Kooragang Island here in New South Wales. The H2U project and other projects in Gladstone and beyond are more longer term. You know, we don't see them being economically viable in the near term, so naturally, our focus is on the existing ammonia facility and repurposing that for the future. Obviously, as I mentioned, I'll talk about this in a bit of detail, but our first phase of Kooragang Island's renewable hydrogen is a 50MW electrolyzer.
And, you know, that will produce a certain volume of renewable hydrogen, which we will use in the plant to displace natural gas, as I mentioned. What the expansion to our ammonia tank and import-export facilities does is give Orica maximum optionality. So if the Port of Newcastle realize the clean energy precinct, a 220-hectare allocation of land north of the port, and encourage significant hydrogen and ammonia investment into the port that is renewable, Orica, being a very experienced and importer-exporter of ammonia at the terminal today, is well positioned to benefit from either imports or exports of ammonia. So really, the tank provides us optionality that no matter how the energy transition unfolds in the Hunter, Orica is positioned to upskill our current capability of ammonia import-export and make sure that we've got facilities for the future. The tank today is a 10,000-kiloton tank. Thanks, Scott.
Morning, guys. It's James Wilson from Jarden here. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple from me. Firstly, given the updated emissions targets today and the strong earnings backdrop that you spoke to, Sanjeev, is there any appetite to also lift your RONA targets beyond the current range, especially given that you're already within those targets?
Yeah, we will, we will, Scott. So when we come up in November with our full year results, we'll come up with a new three-year range for RONAs. So over the last three years, the RONA target has progressively increased, and we'll continue to do that in the next step for the next three-year average. So, please wait till November, but, yes, there will be a step up in RONA targets going forward.
Great. Thanks, Sanjeev, and just one more from me. This might also be one for Germán. But what are your current forward ammonia contracts suggesting for the incremental costs of sourcing third-party ammonia during your turnarounds over the next half? Could you give us some color on that, please?
Germán, you might want to talk about it. We do not disclose our ammonia contracts, as we don't disclose our gas contracts. Keep in mind that since we just have 10,000 tons of storage, there's not a lot of ammonia we can buy for Kooragang Island. At Yarwun, it's different. At Yarwun, we have a 30,000-ton storage tank, so we'll continue to supplement ammonia at Yarwun. But for Kooragang Island, there's not much capacity there to buy ammonia, so we will be supplementing ammonium nitrate during those two turnarounds we talked about through our network. So not too much of ammonia, but more of ammonium nitrate. Most of the ammonia we buy is back to market price, Asian market price. Germán, I don't know if you want to comment.
Great. Thanks, guys.
Hi there, folks. Ray Abbott here from Bank of America. Just a quick question on your decarbonization investments. Andrew, appreciate your comments about capital discipline. You know, I understand that the ACCU benefit gives you some kind of return mechanism on those investments, but ultimately, you probably still need to push costs back onto the miners. Are you finding any challenges in passing those costs on?
Yeah, it's a great question. Look, really, the primary task here is to move decarbonization projects from just being sustenance capital to being value-add organic growth capital. So yes, if I speak specifically to renewable hydrogen, the mining sector is very enthusiastic about our plans. Whether they'll pay a premium for low-carbon product remains to be seen, and I'll talk a little more shortly about the optionality Orica has where the miners do or don't pay a premium for that differentiated product.
Got it. Understood. If I'm just thinking about sort of the marginal cost of AN going forward, obviously, we're not seeing a lot of big world-scale projects coming to market. Incremental capacity from yourselves and your competitors is gonna come from debottlenecking, which is obviously very sort of low cost. But could you maybe just give us some color on what the marginal cost of that AN capacity really is, if it's coming from some kind of debottlenecking?
It's very low, and I've always said that, industry keeps 2%-3% per year. That's the nature of chemical industry. That's what we do. Bertus can talk about, us having made significant steps in terms of freeing up more own manufactured capacity versus purchased capacity, and I've also stated this, that we wanted to shift more the ratio towards own manufactured product, especially given the disruptions that happened in ammonium nitrate markets and nitrogen markets globally. We've done that very, very successfully with extremely low cost, debottlenecking. And if you say debottlenecking, it's not adding equipment. It is just basically ensuring that the plants are running stable at high loads around the year.
So what Bertus ensures is the factories run 365 days around the year, irrespective of what happens to the markets, whether there's weather, whether there's a strike, whether there's something happening, and then the network and the supply chain takes care that the manufacturing sites do not ever cut back on capacity. That's why we call them continuous manufacturing. They are supposed to run continuously, and they were not doing that in the past. So we've made the investments at all our manufacturing sites to ensure very high throughput, unless there's a plant turnaround when we have no production there. So we've very successfully created capacity wherever we want to, but this capacity is in our control, and we decide what we do with this. Most of that capacity supplements our captive needs for ammonium nitrate.
You know, we are the largest consumer of technical-grade explosive ammonium nitrate in the world. And most of that goes to Leah for the discrete downstream network as a raw material, and we push all of that expanded capacity into Leah's business, so that the, you know, they have the capability and the flexibility of consuming the best quality of ammonium nitrate, which is also now low carbon, so that our detonators and our explosives, the downstream, is all then certified as low carbon product, which our customers really love. So, you know, there's been a clear strategy behind pushing our manufacturing sites, both continuous and discrete. And I have to say that the teams have done an outstanding job in terms of reliability and giving us more capacity where we need it.
Perfect. Thank you.
Hi, Jess from ART and also representing Climate Action 100+. It's great to see your accelerated climate change action and leadership. Your net zero by 2050 ambition previously covered approximately two-thirds of your Scope 3 emissions footprint. Are you able to provide an estimate of the coverage now that you've expanded the boundary to include 12 of the 15 Scope 3 reporting categories deemed relevant to Orica?
Yeah, that's right. I think out of the 12, we've assumed the boundary now is full and wholesome, i.e., all of the categories of Scope 3 that apply to Orica have been included.
Just over here, it's Niraj from Goldman Sachs. Just a question on the turnarounds over the next six months. Clearly, your sourcing costs or cost of supply will step up at both Yarwun and KI. To what extent does indexation in either footprint provide a potential offset?
I'm sorry, I didn't get that question.
To what extent I mean, for, in Yarwun, for example, you know, the cost of ammonia presumably will go up while KI ammonia is being turned around. To what extent does that get reflected in your indexation mechanisms you have with customers at Yarwun?
Fully. Fully. So the pass-through is full because that's, that's where the rise and fall mechanisms come. I do not necessarily assume that our cost of ammonia goes up. It all depends on what happens in the market with the nitrogen pricing. We have seen Tampa go up $100 a couple of weeks back, so we'll wait and see where we land with the cost. But the logistics and the supply chain costs will go up because we will have to handle more external product rather than own manufactured product. The cost depends on what the market price is, and that's obviously obviously indexed, and then it passes through fully through our rise and falls to our customers. Yes.
Got it. Thank you.
I think the big challenge is we are replacing own manufactured margins with traded margins, right? Because we are missing a lot of own manufactured product in the first half, because KI produces the ammonia, which is a feedstock that goes in to make our own ammonium nitrate. We'll be missing that, and that's where I said that, Germán's margins do get impacted in the first half, and that is because we are shifting from own product to traded product. Customers don't feel it. Nobody feels it. But obviously, Germán's P& L will feel that in the first half.
There's a question here.
John.
Julie?
Yeah. Julie, here.
John.
Yeah, thank you. John Purtell from Macquarie. Just had a couple of questions, and yeah, maybe one for Leah there. Just in terms of the tertiary abatement installation, you've obviously done a couple of these at site there at KI and Carseland. I mean, how complex is it to implement? I mean, is it, from a broader manufacturing perspective, seen as relatively low risk or high risk?
Bertus, do you want to take that?
Any project has got some risk. The technology is proven, and we've now rolled it out on a number of, of the plants, so I would say the, the risk is relatively low. And the complexity, of operating these units, once it's, it's up and running, is not, too complex.
Thank you, and just a second question on the, on the business update, Sanjeev. In terms of a broader perspective on slowing global growth and the impact that that's having on Orica, you called out Western Europe, Q&C, as a soft patch in the first half. Are there any other sort of end markets to, to mention there, and, and what are the offsets?
Yeah, no, a strong bounce back in Q&C in Europe after they came back from holiday, so we've seen a very good development in the second half. Projects are now back. We saw the same. We saw a seasonal slowdown because of the extreme winter in the US. In Q&C, we also saw that bounce back quite nicely. So the business seems to be very resilient. Governments are committed to building infrastructure, and, and, and pumping money. We do see funding in the US now start to trickle into infrastructure.
Housing is weak, but we don't have exposure to US housing. We have more exposure to infrastructure, and then the IRA and all of the factories being built there and the big warehouses and the supply chains being built. All of that has been quite positive for us. So that's been quite positive. I think it was just normal seasonality. It was just that the winter was extreme, and we saw very, very slow growth in Q&C, but that bounced back nicely in the second half though. So no real weak spots across the globe.
Let's take, there's a few questions on Slido, so let's go to Slido now. A question from Paul McTaggart: We hear from miners that FY 2024 will see a catch-up on waste stripping. What are you seeing in the order books? And we also hear explosive prices are up. Any comments on that?
Yeah, so, so outlook, I mean, we normally get six-month forecasts from most of our customers, very strong. So material move is expected to increase in 2024. What might be positive but might have a downside is that it's expected to be very dry in Australia. You know, we've had four years, I think three, three and three to four years, Armand, of very wet weather. That's impacted volumes in this part of the world. We are expecting it to be very dry, which means that production should not get interrupted by wet weather. There's a risk of forest fires, on the other hand, so, you know, things we don't control, we watch very carefully. Our customers are telling us, "Mobilize, be prepared, we need everything that you can offer." Armand, I don't know if you want to comment on what your customers are telling you.
So maybe the summary that I can say is that we are very pleased with the rate of renewal that we have this year and with the wins in the contracts. The overall portfolio, the overall pipeline of contracts we have, remains solid for fiscal 2024. I think there was also a comment on the prices. I think the instability and uncertainty in the energy markets has really put in perspective the value of sovereign access to ammonium nitrate in Australia. And thanks to that, I think we have been able to value our product slightly better than 18 months ago.
Question from Daniel Kang. I'll just complete this one, if I don't mind. With the upcoming KI turnaround, is there an opportunity to incrementally lift capacity? Question one. And the second part is, as New South Wales shifts away from coal, will KI likely move more to export sales?
Yeah, we always look to expand capacity. So that is, hopefully will give us more capacity after the shutdowns are done. So that's y es, wherever there's opportunity, it makes a lot of sense for us to make more, rather than less. Why would we not? That's why we call it continuous manufacturing. So yes, wherever there's opportunity with a little capital to pull more through our assets, we'll continue to do that. KI does not really export, but does supplement demand within the network. I mean, you know that, in the second half of the year, we had a significant shut at our Burrup asset. Nearly three and a half months of no production because we did not have cooling facilities there.
KI stepped up and supported the network, so KI has the capability of supplementing our network anywhere in the world, and we have been using their supply chain team. We have been doing that in a very smart way. So wherever we see a gap, a hole, a need, we just put tons onto a vessel and charter a vessel or book a vessel and ship thousands of tons overseas. You'll see, obviously, when you look at import stats with the time lag, you'll see product coming into Australia. That was us. We had to supplement for Oman, Western Australian demand, because Burrup didn't produce for a very long time, and no customer felt it. So the supply chain is working, the global network is working, and those capacity creeps are really helping us to build buffers.
Because, you know, this is the nature of manufacturing, this is the nature of chemical industry. You will have plant trips. That's just the nature of the beast. It's just that how well are you prepared to manage those eventualities? And we have learnt the hard way after Russia, Ukraine, Burrup, and all the other challenges this, this team has faced, that for us, this is business as usual. So, again, I'm proud to say we've never let a customer down over an unprecedented disruption in supply over the last three years.
Nick Rawlinson from Jefferies. Thanks for taking my question. Given the turnaround schedule at KI, will you guys have excess gas that you'll be selling in the spot market, which will offset some of the AN sourcing costs? And, is, I guess, the spot price materially different from your contract price?
That's a great question. Armand, you run the gas book for Australia, so...
We were gonna have some spare gas during the turnaround. The first tranche of gas that we're gonna have in October has been put into the market, and it's likely at the price that we contracted. The second tranche is probably gonna be on a time swap for fiscal 2025.
So currently, spot prices are better than contract prices, so there is demand for the gas. So, we'll not be paying any take or pay penalties, let's put it this way.
Great. Thanks, guys.
I think, Richard's question was very similar to yours, so we'll pass on that one. Are there any other further questions, or there's one in the back?
Thank you. Nathan Riley from UBS. You touched on, I guess, the fact that Bontang was s orry, Burrup was down for three months this year. Can you just give us just let us know how long, you know, KI will be down for in the first half? And just give us an idea of, I guess, sort of lost production, just in terms of percentage of nameplate utilization, just so we can get a bearing on, you know, just how those sort of earnings might flow through.
Yeah. Nathan, I'll provide a lot more detail in November. I'll just do a simple piece of math. There are two shuts at KI Ammonia. We couldn't do it, that is, we couldn't do it at one shot because it was just too complex and too big. So we decided to break the turnaround into two parts, part A and part B. Each of this, of those is between four to five weeks, so we're talking two months to 2.5 months. The ammonia factory roughly produces 30,000 tons of ammonia per month, times two. Times two gives you the ammonium nitrate shortage that we have that we will supplement with our network, and then you can do the math on the rest.
So hopefully, that helps, Nathan, but I'll try and provide a bit more detail in November, because in November, we will already have seen the first phase of the turnaround, and then we'll know. You see, the challenge with the continuous turnarounds is you don't know till you open up the equipment, and once you open up the equipment, there's always plan for continuation. So you don't know what you'll find. Now, the plant has been running very well. It's producing top quality.
We've maintained it very well. It's been extremely reliable, but it is an old asset. So whenever you open this thing up a nd these plants are not designed to be shut. It's operated nonstop for the last six months, six years. So whenever you open these up, you're always mentally prepared for a challenge. We'll know a bit more by the ninth of November when we have our results, and Bertus will obviously then feed me all of that information. We'll then give you a bit more in terms of the impact.
Okay. Thank you. Understood.
Hey, guys. James Wilson from Jarden here. Just one more question from me. You spoke to sort of longer-term thermal coal demand declines of around 40%, and you also mentioned that KI is now approaching 70 years old. Beyond supplementing the network, what do you think in the longer term is gonna be the key sort of market for AN out of KI?
Yeah. So KI has two roles. One is obviously, to facilitate the transition of Hunter away from coal. That will take another 15 years. That's our best guess today. Because Australian demand for coal will go down, but exports of Australian coal, which is extremely high value to India, China, and all these other markets, will continue. We'll facilitate that. We don't intend to leave coal, so we don't intend to let our customers down there. The ammonia part is clear, and we will talk about this. We'll convert this to green. This might go to energy, this might go into maritime, this might go into manufacture of AN. And then we have 3 nitric acid lines, to manufacture ammonium nitrate at KI. One is old, one is, you know, mid-age, one is relatively new.
So if there's no demand and we don't need the capacity in the network, these plants are totally written off, so it's not a big deal for us. We'll just ensure that the global network internally is able to manage that capacity. Remember, we buy more ammonium nitrate than we produce, right? So I can just buy less and take what I get as long as the gas/green hydrogen costs are competitive. KI will always have a future, because we buy more than we produce, so we are always net short on capacity, and I think that's a fantastic position to be. We'll continue to be there.
That gives me every flexibility to, you know, flexibilize my manufacturing units, build that ammonia tank. I can buy ammonia, I can sell ammonia. I can do what I want as long as I have my infrastructure in place, to allow that flexibility, and that's exactly where we've been headed over the last three years. So that journey is still going on, and that ammonia tank is gonna be crucial for us, to enable full flexibility of KI. Whether there's coal or not, it will not matter in the end to us.
Are there any further questions from the floor? Okay, and there are no further questions on Slido. So what we may do is we'll take a break now. How about we reconvene at 11:30? That'll give you enough time to meet management and question management over a cup of tea. And we'll re-resume the second set at 11:30. All right, we're all back in the room. I hope you enjoyed a cup of tea, and the donuts were very nice, I must say. So section one was about decarbonizing Orica, and you heard from the team as to what we're doing. The second part is about now turning this into, you know, creating competitive advantage for Orica. So we'll start it off with Andy, who will talk more about our Partnering for Progress and some of the initiatives that we've signed on to. Andy?
Thank you, Delphine, and thank you for coming back. What I want to talk about now is, as Delphine mentioned, Partnering for Progress. For the world to meet the Paris goals and of keeping global temperature rises well below two degrees, there will need to be unprecedented collaboration between public and private sectors up and down global supply chains. The industry's transition to net zero is complex and requires technology advancements and policies that will give companies across the mining value chain the confidence to act. Orica can lead, but it cannot succeed alone. This is why we're dedicating a significant number of resources to collaborate and advocate with partners to progress solutions at the pace and scale needed. Orica believes that when we work together, we can fast-track development, de-risk investments, and provide signals to the market that will ultimately speed up decarbonization in hard-to-abate industries.
While we have many partnerships shown on the slide, I will emphasize three of those today. Orica is deeply committed to future-proofing our manufacturing assets. This is critical for regional employment as well as domestic supply chain sovereignty. Our critical place in the mining value chain means our actions also help our customers meet their decarbonization objectives, while concurrently delivering the commodities the world will need to achieve net zero. On this side, you can see an aerial shot of Kooragang Island. The most material challenge for Orica to further reduce emissions from our manufacturing site is to replace our natural gas feedstock used for ammonia production at this particular site. We'd now like to share a video with you on our Hunter Valley Hydrogen Project.
With our purpose to sustainably mobilize the Earth's resources, our commitment to net zero emissions by 2050, and our long-proven track record of safely producing and utilizing hydrogen, Orica is taking its place as a first mover in the renewable hydrogen market. In partnership with Origin and supported by government funding, we are progressing plans for a renewable hydrogen hub. Located close to our ammonia plant, the hub will deliver a safe, reliable, and commercial-scale renewable hydrogen supply chain in the Newcastle Industrial and Port Precinct, and it will bring our vision for low carbon ammonia manufacturing to life. As we transition from grey hydrogen, made using a natural gas as feedstock, to a renewable hydrogen feedstock. Renewable hydrogen is produced via electrolysis using recycled water and grid-connected electricity. From the hub, renewable hydrogen will be piped to Orica's Kooragang Island ammonia manufacturing facility.
Orica's 80% offtake from the hydrogen hub will see renewable hydrogen displacing 6% of the grey hydrogen used to manufacture ammonia at Kooragang Island today. From this low-carbon ammonia, we can also produce low-carbon ammonium nitrate to be sold to our existing mining customers for blasting services. Additionally, with our unique ammonia storage tank and deepwater port access, we can also export low-carbon ammonia to new global customers in power, maritime, agriculture, and other industrial applications.
With our location, experience, and safety record in producing hydrogen and the manufacture, handling, and export of ammonia and ammonium nitrate, the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub project is Australia's fastest credible pathway to low-carbon ammonia export. Phase one is just the beginning. The hub is designed to scale up through subsequent phases, leveraging proximity to the Port of Newcastle's Clean Energy Precinct, offering future expansion. It will help Australia decarbonize and secure sustainable sovereign manufacturing while creating new jobs, energy sources, and industries as the world transitions away from fossil fuels. Because the world demands and deserves a sustainable future.
So thank you. I hope you see the project opportunities ahead and how these create compelling advantages for Orica. In our core blasting business, the project will enable us to offer low-carbon explosives to our mining and quarry and construction customers at a time when they are trying to decarbonize their own activities. Beyond blasting, ammonia is seen as one of the main transport vectors for exporting renewable hydrogen. Hence, this project also provides Orica with optionality. Specifically, instead of making renewable ammonium nitrate, we are exploring the direct sale of renewable ammonia into the power generation sector. All offtake options are being explored to maximize the returns on investment and unlock the full potential of Kooragang Island during the energy transition. Now, this type of undertaking can only be achieved with strong partnerships.
If we get it right, this project is the fastest, most economical route to establishing Australia's export renewable hydrogen industry. Orica's Kooragang Island ammonia plant is the only operating plant port side on the east coast of Australia and the only plant in operation in New South Wales. The plant has been safely producing around 350,000 tons per annum of ammonia over many years and provides an immediate industrial hydrogen demand point without CapEx required for expensive new ammonia facilities. We have been safely exporting ammonia from this facility for decades, and as we've touched on, we have plans to expand our import-export facility. Origin is our joint development partner because they have unrivaled expertise in the electricity markets. Electricity is a major cost component of making renewable hydrogen.
Origin is also a gas supplier to Orica and therefore has the ability to integrate gas and renewable electricity streams into our ammonia production at the most cost-competitive mix. The Port of Newcastle is already established as a strategic energy export gateway to Asia. Their existing deepwater shipping channel has 50% spare capacity today for immediate availability of renewable ammonia export. And finally, the Hunter region must find a transition pathway for its economy and for its workforce as thermal coal peaks and then declines over the long term. Fortunately, the region is already the epicenter of activity and long-term investment in renewable power. The coordination between Orica, Port of Newcastle, Origin, and the local community will ensure the building of critical infrastructure to deliver the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub at subsequent scale-up phases will be capital efficient and coordinated.
For Australia to achieve its renewable hydrogen vision, we can no longer repeat the uncompetitive overbuild we saw during peak LNG development. Finally, by replacing natural gas with renewable hydrogen, Orica will be able to free up material domestic gas supply for Australian households. Phase one of the project, a 50MW electrolyzer, will displace a little under one petajoule of natural gas from the plant, which could free up the equivalent gas supply to around 50,000 Australian homes. Hopefully, you get a sense of our unstoppable commitment to future-proof the Hunter region and establish Australia as a renewable hydrogen exporter. And this is just the beginning for the East Coast of Australia. As I mentioned, our next stop will be Gladstone, and H2U Group with similar intentions.
As with our previous investments in decarbonization, Orica will apply a rigorous commercial discipline to its participation in the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub. Renewable-produced hydrogen still has some way to go before it is economically viable. Hydrogen accounts for about 75% of the total cost of conventional ammonia production. Therefore, higher cost hydrogen can have a substantial impact on ammonia economics. In our decision making, there are key three variables: renewable power costs, gas costs, and public policy, as Sanjeev spoke about earlier. On gas, the AUD 12/gigajoule cap on Australian gas introduced by the government is welcome, but gas still remains too expensive, particularly when Orica must compete with rivals arbitraging cheaper energy in North America, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East.
More needs to be done to protect Australian manufacturers from oil and gas producers capitalizing on global energy shocks at the expense of domestic manufacturing. It is also apparent that local manufacturers who are directing capital to decarbonize must be protected from imported goods coming from jurisdictions without carbon regulation. We are, and look forward to continuing to work with the federal government on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Renewable electricity now accounts for about 35% of Australia's total energy generation, according to the CEC. That's up from 32.5% in 2021, and the figure has more than doubled since 2017. We support more supply, ultimately to drive down the cost of electricity. But over the near term, we do anticipate price variability as the coal fleet is turned off and transmission investments are required to bring renewables online.
As Sanjeev mentioned, we need public support to support and encourage market formation. We absolutely support the emergence of production credits on renewable hydrogen and policies around contract for difference to help create demand-side demand for renewable hydrogen. Production credits mean taxpayers only pay for molecules actually produced rather than pay for the promise of molecules via speculative grants. As you'd be aware, in Australia today, there are over 100 green hydrogen projects announced. Orica's view is many of those projects are uneconomical till at least 2030, and our concern that is if taxpayer money is spread over many uneconomical, unlikely, and overly ambitious projects, that will ultimately erode public support for the industry. This is why Orica's existing ammonia plant and export facilities at Kooragang Island create distinct advantages in establishing this market.
The government does also need to act quickly and reward early movers who are fast approaching FID on projects such as the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, currently in FEED. Rounds of consultation and reports before funding is allocated will only put our renewable ambition at further risk from IRA-backed U.S. competition. I now want to talk to you about a few examples of how we're creating commercial advantage with a number of recent ESG-oriented investments. As I mentioned, we need multiple technology pathways to be successful if we are to realize our 2050 net zero ambition. Firstly, Orica has taken demonstrable steps to explore negative emissions technology. Together with the Australian and New South Wales government, Orica has invested in clean energy startup MCI since 2013.
Orica is a 30% owner of MCI, and you will recall that they won the Clean Energy Startup Pitch Battle at COP 26. MCI has developed a scalable carbon capture technology that reacts waste CO2 with alkaline materials to produce carbonate products used in construction, manufacturing, and consumer markets. Orica is supporting their demonstration plant at Kooragang Island with an intent to capture around 3,000 tons per annum of CO2 at our source and put them into safe, effective storage. While the economics of the MCI project are unclear today, we remain optimistic as to the potential of the technology and feel the demonstration plant at Kooragang Island is a prudent next step to prove up the process technology and commercial possibilities.
Alpha HPA is a technology industrial chemical company offering a suite of ultra-high purity alumina products, which are a critical raw material for decarbonization in e-mobility, LEDs, and semiconductors. The proprietary manufacturing process dramatically reduces cost. Furthermore, Alpha HPA's proprietary process technology has the potential to reduce 70% of the process emissions compared to today's incumbent alkaloxide process for making high purity alumina. This financial year, Orica took a 5% stake in Alpha HPA and is supporting the Yarwun facility with reagents and vice versa. We are basically renting molecules to Alpha HPA. We are now exploring a similar opportunity with Alpha HPA in North America at our Carlin facility. Let me play a short video on the possibilities of Alpha HPA, after which I'll hand across to Angus Melbourne, our Chief Technology Officer, to talk about Orica's sustainable solutions portfolio.
Our business is the commercialization of aluminum purification technology, specifically tailored for LED lighting and lithium-ion battery applications. Our process is quite elegant, and it recycles its reagents into a by-product that we sell on a 100% basis, further reducing our processing costs. So it's disruptive in that it can deliver very high purity at very low cost. The flexibility of our process flow sheet affords us to be able to meet the ongoing development in technology that's happening in the LED and lithium-ion battery space. Once we realized the process is capable of purifying aluminum, and it's agnostic about where the aluminum comes from, we took a sort of quantum leap in the ability of the business to commercialize, because we effectively can buy our aluminum units as an industrial feed that's not constrained by a mineral deposit or a mining feed.
This facility is gonna put us well and truly on the global stage. We are in a very good position to take the project through to commercialization. We are looking to bring roughly 120 operational jobs to the project at full scale, between 300 and 350 construction phase jobs. The range of products that will come out of this plant, again, is gonna put us on the map. It would then change the way that people look at aluminum worldwide. Our process requires two key process reagents in relatively large volume, and those two key process reagents are recycled as a by-product. We needed to find a partner capable of both delivering those process chemicals but also purchasing back the by-product. In February 2020, we signed an MoU with Orica to further develop a partnership that will allow us to do exactly that.
It's a single pass-through in the SX circuit, so the reagents come in, and then they just go back out, back to Orica. We see, you know, the relationship with Orica very much a mutually beneficial one. They're being extremely proactive in working with us as a key supplier of our two main reagents. I think that Orica, more generally, is attracted to the concept of working with a business that is actively feeding low-carbon industries and, you know, new tech.
Thank you, Andy. At Orica, our purpose is to sustainably mobilize the Earth's resources. Put simply, how can we help our customers responsibly extract the resources that are gonna be critical to supporting a better future for us all, while creating commercial advantage for Orica and enabling the resources industry to fulfill its ESG aspirations? Now, when it comes to Orica's ESG customer proposition, we aim to deliver smarter solutions and technology to our customers across both our core blasting solutions, and also our established or newly established Orica Digital Solutions business. And what we wanna do is really drive six key value propositions. The first is to improve safety outcomes as the industry moves towards zero harm by removing people from dangerous zones.
The second is increasing productivity and reducing operational costs, and as reserves become more difficult and expensive to exploit, and the total cost of ownership increases for our customers. Third is improving recovery of ore, as ore grades diminish across key commodities, including those that are essential to the energy transition. Fourth is lowering customer emissions, as customers strive towards their own low-carbon mining and journeys, and reducing their impacts on the climate. Fifth is helping to maintain and manage the social license to operate, as community and regulatory constraints and reputational risk increases, as do societal expectations for our industry. And finally, reducing the impact on environment and biodiversity, as customers look to reduce the impact of their operations on the natural environment around their operations and the communities in which they work. I'll first talk about Orica Digital Solutions.
Our newly established Digital Solutions vertical currently supports our customers across the entire mining value chain, from exploration through to processing. Critically, as ore bodies are increasingly becoming harder to find and as ESG responsibilities and commitments increase globally, demand for the use of digital tools, software, sensors, and data science is increasing exponentially. The unique value proposition of our digital solutions is that it seamlessly connects our customers' physical blasting operations and digital worlds, so they can readily understand and optimize their operations at every step of the value chain through integrated workflows from mine to mill. Now, I'm gonna talk both upstream and downstream of blasting, blasting being a physical anchoring point in the value chain. Upstream from blasting, we're helping our customers better understand their ore bodies in real time to drive more informed decisions downstream.
Our newly acquired ore body intelligence solutions in Axis can help accelerate the exploration phase with increased precision and certainty that the industry needs. Our ore body intelligence offering with RHINO and DrillMax can also support brownfield expansions and exploitation by delivering accurate knowledge of the ore body to identify and optimize the extraction process. This reduces energy, water, and the resources required to maximize output. Customers can combine this intimate knowledge of the ore body with our 4D bulk explosive technology to match the rock conditions within a blast. This ensures that the optimal energy utilization and blast outcomes are achieved while reducing the overall costs and improving recovery of ore, meaning better better exploitation of existing reserves. Orica is also offering innovative digital blasting solutions like OrePro 3D, BlastIQ , and FragTrack, which are helping to increase efficiency and reduce our customers' operational footprint.
Now moving downstream of blasting. Downstream, our focus on post-blast measurement and monitoring solutions provides insights into blast outcomes and quantifies the impact on the subsequent stages. Our GroundProbe technology provides real-time monitoring and alerts to customers of pending wall or dam failures through its geotechnical monitoring solutions and a 24/7 remote monitoring hub. This is keeping our people, communities, cultural heritage, and assets safe. We're also leveraging cloud-based software platforms like Design for Outcome and the Integrated Extraction Simulator, IES. This is to help our customers reduce the use of energy and water through simulation, optimization, and using machine learning algorithms across the value chain to optimize processing downstream of blasting.
Orica Digital Solutions has been identified as one of Orica's key growth verticals as we continue to build and invest in the next generation of digital technologies and solutions beyond our blasting core. When miners can measure the value of their decisions, they can start to close the continuous improvement loop to further drive safety, productivity, and sustainability outcomes. Now, moving into some of our blasting technologies. In our core mining, quarrying, and construction businesses, our key blasting technologies are focused on optimized blasting to further drive safety, productivity, and sustainability for customers. Now, when it comes to improving mining productivity, safety, and recovery, few technologies are having as big an impact as WebGen. This is our world-first and patented wireless initiation system. We can now physically disconnect the blasting and the mining processes, allowing mining to occur independently of the blasting.
Now, what this means, for example, is we're able to excavate and blast next to adjacent loading, or, for example, we can drive across loaded blast benches, which greatly increases productivity for our miners. This has been especially beneficial for underground mining, where the stope extraction process can now be optimized to improve recoveries by 5%-20% and reduce dilution by up to 10%, resulting in more ore extracted with the same mining intensity. WebGen, crucially, has also been a critical enabler for progressing the first stages of automated blasting with Avatel. Avatel is the world's first mechanized development charging system, which I'm very proud of, this development, not least because of the contributions of Orica, but because it represents an industry development with our partnership through Epiroc.
In December, we fired our first-ever mechanized wireless development blast in the history of underground mining, and just last week, we fired the first Australian shot at Newcrest in Cadia. This technology allows a single operator to locate, clean, prime, and load our bulk explosives and our wireless initiation systems from the safety of an enclosed cab, several meters back from the face and out of harm's way. Our latest 4D bulk explosive technology allows customers to tailor the explosive energy to the ground conditions independent of the hole conditions. For the first time, customers are using this technology to reduce the explosive energy required in softer rock, in softer rock, which impacts the shovel dig performance, and we're able to increase energy in harder rock to improve fragmentation for more efficiencies in downstream processing.
The combination of this technology with the upstream ore body intelligence is a critical enabler for driving these outcomes. As I mentioned earlier, when we start to combine our digital solutions, such as ore body intelligence, with our blasting technologies such as 4D and WebGen, the power and impact is exponential. When it comes to lowering our customers' operational footprint, protecting the environment, and utilizing resources more effectively, we also have a suite of unique value propositions for our customers. Our unique Cyclo processing system enables circularity by recycling used oil directly on site. The modular relocatable technology reduces mine site fuel demand, delivering up to 30% reduction in total explosive fuel costs and up to 50% reduction in diesel consumption for explosive use. By deploying the technology on site, customers can simultaneously reduce waste and greenhouse gas emissions.
We've also recently released Fortis Protect. This is a premium explosive system that reduces nitrate leaching in surface blasting. This is currently being used by De Beers in Canada in remote north operations. Both environmental blasting systems aid in maintaining a customer's license to operate. Just like last week, we launched a new detonator product in Europe. The new Exel Neo is the world's first lead-free, non-electrical detonator range, creating a safer and more sustainable product by removing lead while maintaining the same consistent and reliable product performance. Now, removal of lead may not seem like a big issue, but in fact, lead is used extensively throughout explosives, particularly primary explosives.
It's a world first and a credit to the ingenuity of the Orica technologists that they've been able to achieve this performance with lead-free explosives to deliver the same capability. Now, this new fully lead-free product range doesn't contain any of the SVHC, the Substances of Very High Concern, as required by the European REACH, the European Union's registration. And finally, in July this year, we produced our first low-carbon emulsifiers, you know, using a bio-based renewable energy feedstock. This is our first sustainably led emulsifier product and is a notable step towards our decarbonization ambitions and helping our customers with theirs.
Using a low-carbon PIBSA, polyisobutylene, we can produce emulsifiers that have up to 80% lower carbon intensity. This innovation means that we can offer low-carbon versions of all our existing emulsifiers to customers. Now, all of these solutions help lower our customers' operational footprint, protect the environment, and utilize resources more effectively. That's more examples of how we're helping our customers to achieve their ESG goals through smarter solutions on the ground. Thank you.
Thanks, Angus. Before we move to Q&As, we'll just hear from John Beavers. He's a non-executive director and chair of our Sustainability Committee.
Good afternoon. On behalf of Orica's board, I want to extend my welcome to all of you. While I cannot be there in person, I hope you found today's session informative. The Orica board recognizes the importance of sound corporate governance, transparency, and accountability in everything we do, and especially when it comes to sustainability and climate resilience. The Safety and Sustainability Committee, chaired by myself, oversees safety and sustainability-related issues that have strategic business and reputational implications for Orica. This includes public disclosures and position statements on climate change. We have oversight of the comprehensive body of work to strengthen Orica's position as the world transitions to a lower carbon economy. These activities will continue to be a key focus for the board in line with the increase in societal expectations in this area.
We have much work yet to do, but I'm satisfied with the strategy and progress Orica has made. And now to our Say on Climate. We appreciate the deep interest our investors, employees, customers, and stakeholders have in our efforts to reduce our impact on the climate and preparing our business for a lower carbon future. Today, I'm proud to confirm that Orica will put forward a Say on Climate resolution at this year's Annual General Meeting in December, offering the opportunity for shareholders to consider Orica's 2023 Climate Action Report. Orica can play a critical role in a decarbonized future, and I'm confident that by continuing to focus on our strategy and collaboration with other stakeholders, we can achieve our purpose of sustainably mobilizing the Earth's resources. Thank you.
Okay, let's start with Q&A . Any on from the floor? Can you put your hands up so either Anne or Joanne can come to you?
Hi, guys. It's James Wilson from Jarden here. Just a quick question about your low carbon emulsifiers. Can you maybe talk to us about sort of the pricing advantage that you'll be able to get on those? I mean, conscious that they're already one of your higher margin products relative to your existing emulsifiers.
Well, I think, you know, we'll be testing the market with that. But the broader principle in all of our pricing policies around the use of technology is that they're not there to subsidize operations. That our w e invest a lot in technology and we expect a return on the technology, and that includes all of our green tech as well.
John, John had a question.
What do you expect to be when you finish?
Good day. John Purtell from Macquarie. This question is for, for Andrew. Just in terms of the, the hydrogen hub, and thanks for the color there. You were able to sort of sketch out a sort of potential timeline. I know it's, probably only indicative, but I think you said that, the plant's currently in, in feed.
Yeah, happy to, John, and thank you for the question. So we're well progressed in FEED. We will hit FID in the first half of next calendar year. The primary activities right now at the project level are the electrolyzer selection. As you can imagine, the demand for electrolyzers outstrips supply, and the electrolyzer delivery is really driving first gas on the project. So that's primary task number one through FEED. I'm off to Japan in a couple of weeks, and really, we've worked really hard to get government subsidies to bring the CapEx down. We're now really focused on getting a premium offtake arrangements in place, and as I said, the Japanese and South Korea power generation have shown particular interest in the project, being one of the first. Therefore, I'm there in a couple of weeks to try and underpin the FID decision with some offtake certainty.
And just the second piece, you've mentioned the 30,000-ton ammonia storage plant, which gives you more flexibility. But what, what are the other areas of potential capital spend for Orica, re, you know, the hydrogen hub and, and green ammonia there? I mean, is, is there significant capital required to effectively retrofit the ammonia plant for renewable supply?
Yeah, look, I think, certainly in the short term, John, there, you know, the, the ammonia plant can accept, renewable hydrogen yesterday, so there is no major capital expenditure for Kooragang Island to a point. The pace, you know, we certainly have ambitions to scale up from 50 megawatts, certainly well beyond that. But really, the speed of that really depends on how the market is formed and, and the commercial sensibleness of the speed of development. So yes, we have big ambitions. Yes, we want to be a cornerstone investor in the Port of Newcastle's Clean Energy Precinct, but it needs to make economic sense, and we feel the 50 megawatt, electrolyzer is a great first step to prove up, get the market established, and then hopefully we can unlock a, a rapid scale-up.
John, when that operates, it'll be the biggest commercial electrolyzer in the world. So it sounds small, 50 MWh, but today we have 10 MWh operating commercially, so it's going to be a significant step up in terms of scale. And then after that, it's all about the economics of how to make it work.
Thanks. Just another question on green hydrogen. You obviously have the optionality of either selling that green hydrogen into ammonia or into ammonium nitrate. Very different nature of offtakers in those two markets. You know, it's rare to see green ammonia in the ammonia market, but probably even more rare in ammonium nitrate. I mean, what's your thinking at the moment? Is the best commercialization strategy here to sell into ammonia or to use it in AN? And where do you think you can get a better premium?
Yeah, I think we're right at the forefront of that work right now, so I can't give you a crisp answer. I think, you know, clearly, you know, the miners, as I mentioned, are very, very interested in having, you know, renewable blasting. But for the miner, certainly for bulk commodities, you know, blasting is a very small piece of their overall carbon footprint on the mine site. So I think, again, it's a question of pace. When will the miners start to really value renewable blasting? Probably after they've tackled diesel, after they've tackled electricity for SAG mill and mechanical grinding, et cetera. They will get there. At what pace remains to be seen. And as I said, in the meantime, Japanese and Korean power producers are trying to meet regulatory requirements to start to co-fire using renewable ammonia.
So I think that may actually be the first demand point that makes the most commercial sense. But as I said, we're very nonchalant about the market. And again, you know, the 50 megawatt electrolyzer is a very small quantity. You know, it's 5,000 tons per annum of renewable hydrogen, makes about 25,000 tons of renewable ammonia, which makes about 50,000 tons of renewable ammonium nitrate. So we're not taking wholesale volumes here of exposure without an end market.
Yep, understood. So, I mean, given that the green ammonia is gonna be effectively just displacing gray, you're not adding any new brownfield or greenfield ammonia capacity. So I mean, should we then think that maybe over the next five to 10 years, if you're gonna be sending more ammonia molecules offshore, that the domestic market for AN might start to get a little bit tighter, and then you might see the pricing pressure?
That's, that's a good one. No, no. Look, the intention is to eliminate gas from our feedstock mix, right, over a period of time. Yeah, and that's why it's called a transition fuel. It's important that, we get a cost-competitive gas supply, but we cannot continue to keep our dependency on natural gas. And the fact that as green hydrogen starts to scale up, it becomes more competitive, it gets into ammonia, that gives us all optionalities, as you said. If the power producers in Japan want to pay us a premium for the green ammonia and fire their power plants, let them take it. And if the, if, if our mining customers are willing to pay us a premium for the green ammonia market, let them take it. The tank will help us to supplement our needs as we do today, right?
So we have a tank in Yarwun where we are able to trade ammonia. We don't have a tank in Kooragang . So that tank is gonna be critical for us, exactly what you said, you know, to have those optionalities. So the strategy that, Bertus has been asked to work on, and Germán, is: how do we flexibilize our continuous manufacturing network so that we are not dependent on, or we are not leveraged by either a customer or a supplier? In the past, Orica's challenge was we were always at the mercy of either a customer or a supplier, and that was kind of misused against Orica. What we are trying to do is become independent of what happens in the market.
We follow our own destiny, and that's where the strategy comes. It's all about flexibilizing our network, and then we have every option possible. By the way, today, every Japanese power plant has already taken their turbines out and replaced them with multipurpose turbines that can take ammonia yesterday. Yeah, but it's sick to send in gray ammonia there or blue ammonia because that just makes no sense. They need green ammonia, and that's why Andy's in Japan in a couple of weeks. So the market is there already today.
The question is, how soon can we get that manufacturing up and running, and how soon can we get the most attractive contracts, from our potential buyers there, in the energy markets? And we are not even talking about maritime fuel. So the IMO has pushed that decision out to 2027, and bunker fuel has to be replaced, and ammonia, in my view, is the most viable option. If that demand alone will triple the size of the ammonia market as we know it today.
Global ammonia market, not explosives. Global ammonia market, including ferts, if that comes true. So we are not even thinking about that because we obviously don't have that kind of scale. So the opportunities are massive. The challenges are clearly there. We have a head start because we don't have to build infrastructure. We have everything here. You'll see tomorrow. There's a port, there's a tank, there's an ammonia facility. We have everything. We just need that hydrogen to start pumping in, and then we are ready to go.
Perfect. Thank you.
Hi, thank you. It's Scott again. Question for Angus. On slide 46 and 47, where you talk about you're optimizing energy across the value chain and optimized blasting. Do you have enough data that you've worked on with customers to just give us a sense of what the customers are actually finding the most valuable in reducing costs, which is, you know, I guess a lot of what they'll look at from their decision points?
I think it's really two. I'll speak upstream and downstream of blasting again. I think the first is the coupling of a better understanding, you know, bringing more resolute information, geotechnical information to the block model and the ore body, then allows us to be far more precise around how we blast. And, you know, that at the end of the day, we're trying to make little rocks out of big rocks, and we're trying to leave them and move them in the right place. So that dissipation of energy to deliver those outcomes is highly dependent on the variability in the geology. And typically, blasting has historically been treated as homogeneous, averaging energies across average assumptions around geology.
Now, with the current state of the technology, we're able to bring more resolute geotechnical information, and then when we combine it with things like 4D and WebGen, we can be more precise and vary energy dissipation in the block model to deliver those, you know, traditional outcomes of fragmentation profile and moving ground to the right places. So that's probably the key drivers.
And then secondly, we're finding that the post-blast measurements, particularly post-blast movement, simulating and understanding where ore moves, and then being able to correlate that to excavation rates and ultimately to downstream processing, is where big drivers of value are. And that's where we're getting a lot of pull from customers. Things like OrePro 3D, which is really advanced blast movement simulation, and IES, which simulates right from the blast all the way down to really granular processing technologies. These are the key technologies that are enabling those value drivers.
Okay, great. Thank you. And then, on your utilizing resources more effectively slide, can you talk a little bit more about the bio-based renewable energy feedstock for your low-carbon emulsifier? Where, where is exactly is that coming from, please?
Well, so instead of I mean, we're using biofuels, instead of, you know, traditional fossil fuels. So that's a BASF feedstock of a biofuel that then goes into our emulsifier production.
So that's a purchased externally
Correct. That's correct.
Product. Okay. Is there a, where does, where does that come from ultimately, though? What, what if I step back down or up the chain, what's the bio-based feedstock for it?
Well, that's a. I'm not could do it, but
It's based on renewable sugar. So it's a fermentation product based out of renewable sugar that replaces conventional carbon-based feedstock that we use to manufacture the emulsifiers. So Orica is the largest producer of explosive-grade emulsifiers in the world, with assets in Australia, but also in the U.S. So we are the largest consumers of the feedstock, and we have now this collaboration that gives us this, you know, a Gen 2 based sugar. And out of the Gen 2 fermentation technology, you get the feedstock, the alcohol that goes into our emulsifiers.
Okay, so it's just an ethanol style process. Okay.
No, it's a bit more complex than ethanol. Yes, it's an alcohol. Yes.
Yeah.
It's not ethanol, but it's an alcohol.
All right.
It's a longer-chain alcohol.
Yeah. Okay. And then my last question for you, Angus, just so you don't feel like you're missing out. The Cyclo process, can you talk about, you know, where you are on the adoption curve and what the, you know, where you see the opportunity growing to over the course of the next three, five, 10 years, please?
So we've now got adoption in multiple regions, and we're particularly targeting remote sites. And really, as the name suggests, it's, you know, its great benefit is in being able to reuse and recycle on-site fuel oils and deploy them into explosives. So understandably, that's getting quite a lot of a customer pool, but we're targeting growth, global growth and targeting a lot of remote regions to start with.
Okay.
Hi, Nick Rawlinson from Jefferies again. Maybe one for Angus, just on Axis. When you guys acquired that business, it was growing at about 50% CAGR. Just wondering if you guys have been able to sustain those growth rates, given the softening exploration cycle? And could we perhaps have an update on the implications for the earn-out?
Yeah. We'll give you some updates in November and some more color around that performance. I'm happy to speak to how the business is progressing. So when we acquired that business, they had a strong baseline business in Australia, and our playbook has been to, you know, acquire those software sensor data science application companies that have now reached their limit of growth, particularly in international markets. So our focus for Axis has been leveraging off the strong Australian baseline business for growth into particularly North America, Africa, and Latin America, and that's progressing well. You mentioned softening exploration markets. I think that while it is, you know, a risk in the near term, we see longer term, the demand for these applications is really strong.
As the ore bodies get more difficult, exploration drilling, dev drilling goes deeper. There's still a strong demand. I think probably more relevant is the market structure and where we where Axis benefits from that, you have a structure where you have a large player that has a majority of the market. Axis is the next largest, and then there's a number of smaller players after that. So there's a great pull that we're getting from the customer base there, particularly the major drillers, as an alternate provider in that market structure. And so that's aiding our growth drive at the moment.
Great. Thanks, Angus.
Thanks for the update. It's Rae Addison from Australian Super. Is there anything you can share on what we can expect in your upcoming climate change disclosure and reporting?
Yeah, I could probably. Thanks, Rae, for the question. Look, you know, the rigor that we apply annually into that report will fundamentally look the same. But we have taken on advice from shareholders to sharpen it up, to provide data, sort of, executive summaries, which we'll do. So it will look more or less, you know, like it did the year prior, but hopefully, you know, a more succinct, clearer roadmap for investors.
Um, and
Do you want to add something, Dov? You want to add something?
No, I think that's right.
Okay.
Can we expect more detail on the water stewardship strategy and also the responsible sourcing in that?
Yeah, that's a great question. So I think, you know, generally, we've been really focused on emissions reduction, but clearly, particularly with renewable hydrogen, you're gonna see more and more focus from Orica on water efficiency and water utilization. So watch this space. But yeah, certainly we'll get more mature and provide more disclosure in the future.
Great. Thank you. Just one more question from me. This is for everyone, I guess. How are you thinking about biodiversity in terms of both opportunities and risks, associated with different global legislative movements, whether it's credits and offsets? If you can share your thinking, that would be great.
Troy, you want to take that?
Yeah, look, thank you for the question. At Orica, over the last couple of years, we've been progressing a range of risk and opportunity analysis around biodiversity and our role. If you think about the core product, that we manufacture, ammonium nitrate. We effectively participate in the nitrogen cycle, around the world, so there's a strong link there to biodiversity in that frame. We actually participated with the Australian government this year, on a pilot on the Taskforce on Nature-based Financial Disclosures , TNFD, which was launched yesterday, on Monday, globally. So we are looking to remain ahead of that regulatory curve, anticipate opportunity in this space, and of course, meet our customer needs, as they progress their nature-positive journeys as well.
Any further questions? Great, and there are no questions from the webcast, Sanjeev, so over to you.
Look, I'll just close by thanking all of you. Thank you for your questions. Hopefully, we were able to shed a bit more light on all the great work that the team has been doing. The visit to the KI site is going to be interesting for you because you'll see the sustainability in action. You'll see where we've invested our capital. You'll see the benefits that we are getting there, and then you'll see that we are preparing that site and the rest of Orica for the future. So that's going to be really something that's going to be very interesting. I always l ook, we started off on this journey of sustainability as a freedom to operate issue several years back. Today, I always tell Andy, "Sustainability as a business. Talk to me about sustainability as a business.
Where are the opportunities? What can we do? How can we monetize all the skills, the knowledge, the technology that Orica has?" Because there's a need. The need is driven by regulation. We don't have to force this. We don't have to market this. Regulators will force the 215 heavy emitters in this country to reduce their carbon emissions by 5% every year. There's no option, and if you don't do that, you pay stiff penalties. Regulation is forcing our customers to become more ESG sensitive and responsible, and they're asking for help, and we have all the technologies in place, whether that's the digital technologies, the fact that we are able to now to create digital twins. You know, we are taking guesswork out of mining.
We are making mining more predictable with our data sensors analysis, and we are converting all of that off our 150 years of expertise that we have in blasting. So we're just bringing it all together, and we are doing this in a very smart and sensible manner, not trying to overreach, not trying to do fancy things that go beyond our scope of expertise, but we are just building and leveraging on what we know and doing it better and bigger and faster. And hopefully, all of that will translate into value for all our shareholders and stakeholders. So I'm quite excited about this portion of the strategy. Obviously, ninth of November, I'll give you more details about the final numbers. As I've said, business is trending well. No real concerns there. We just have to close the books.
Kim and the team will get busy now with the auditors and all the other work that happens, and then we'll be out there in November, with our numbers. We'll give you a bit more color, as I promised, on the impacts of the turnarounds, for the first half of 2024. The message is underlying business continues very, very strongly. Loving the momentum, enjoying working with our customers, have done a lot in terms of contract, renegotiations. We've been extremely commercially disciplined. We have not done silly things. We are happy to walk away when we don't like the quality of the earnings that come out of any business. There's no regrets there. So we'll continue with, with all of that. Orica has a great team.
They've been doing a great job, and I'm really privileged that I get a chance to work with these folks, and all of their experience and expertise comes into play. So it's I don't know, going well. Exciting 2024 to look forward to. And then, obviously, after that, when we progress with our challenges and opportunities with sustainability, ESG, green hydrogen. Looking forward to the first major contracts we'll announce soon, hopefully, and no pressure. And after that, it's all about taking this business to a different scale, and then leveraging off all the hard work we have done in the last three years in terms of fixing burning platforms. We don't even talk about our ERP system. That's a relief because it's operating. So we've done quite a bit.
We've done it in a proper low-profile manner, and the belief will remain in Orica is we first deliver, then we talk about it, not the other way around. So thank you all for joining us. We had a great time talking to you, and hopefully, this was enlightening for you. And for all of those who are visiting the site tomorrow, have a great trip. Hopefully, it's not going to be excessively hot, but that is, I'm sure we'll take care in terms of hydration and safety and everything else. And please do follow instructions, because the site is in the front of a major turnaround, and they are extremely busy, so we'll try not to get in the way, but we'll also ensure that you get a good feeling about what's happening at Kooragang. Delphi?
Thank you, Sanjeev, and thank you all for attending today's session. I hope you'll walk away from the 3 hours knowing a little bit more about our approach to sustainability and what we're doing. The journey has just begun. We've got more to do, and we'll continue progressing towards that. For those who are attending, the Kooragang Island site visits, the bus leaves sharp at 7:30 from the Marriott Hotel. I do ask you to get there by 7:15. We'll have a light breakfast ready for you, and if you get there at 7:31, I think you've missed the bus. So we've got a big schedule tomorrow, so please get there on time. It's going to be 34 degrees tomorrow.
It's a hot day, but you do need to wear long-sleeved shirts and long sleeve and trousers. So, we'll try and keep you as cool as possible, but we look forward to hosting you at KI tomorrow. But before I conclude, these sessions don't just come together. There's a lot of people in the background that have worked tirelessly over the last few months to pull it together, from Bertus' team, Leah's team, Germán's team, Andy's team, and my team. But on behalf of ExCo, I'd like to thank all of them for helping bring it to life today. Thank you. There's a light lunch behind. Thank you.