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M&A Announcement

Aug 3, 2022

Operator

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Orica announces strategic acquisition of digital Orebody Intelligence business, Axis Mining Technology and Equity Raising conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sanjeev Gandhi, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us on what is a very exciting day for Orica. Joining me on the call is Chris Davis, our Chief Financial Officer, and Andrew Stewart. Today, we announce the acquisition of Axis. The acquisition will be funded by a fully underwritten institutional share placement of AUD 650 million and non-underwritten share purchase plan capped at AUD 75 million. This strategic acquisition further strengthens our digital solutions vertical and expands Orebody Intelligence portfolio upstream. The proceeds from the capital raising will be used to fund the acquisition of Axis and to provide additional balance sheet capacity in the context of previously flagged supply chain disruptions that are expected to persist over the medium term. Hopefully, you should all have a copy of our ASX announcement and accompanying presentation deck, both of which can be found on the ASX website.

You can find the disclaimers on the next few pages. Moving now to slide six, which outlines the detail of the presentation. In order to leave enough time for questions, I don't intend to go through every slide. I will run through the key points of the transaction, how it fits into our refreshed strategy, and then go into more details about the acquisition. Chris will then go into the details of the equity raise. Be happy to take questions at the end. There's a lot more information contained in the appendices, which I encourage you to read, and we are, of course, happy to answer any questions that you may have in the coming days. Let's turn now to page eight, which contains the transaction overview. Orica's strategic purpose is to sustainably mobilize the Earth's resources.

As Angus Melbourne, our Chief Technology Officer, spoke about at last week's Investor Day, achieving this starts with a better understanding of the orebody at the start of the mining life cycle. Miners have recognized that materially improving their orebody knowledge throughout the mining life cycle will be a key source of value creation. Axis is a highly strategic acquisition and a valuable addition to Orica's Digital Solutions platform, creating an industry-first, leading full-service Orebody Intelligence business and positioning Orica to become the industry's first integrated end-to-end Mine-to-Mill solutions provider. This acquisition has been a bilateral process. We've had the opportunity to get to know the business and management over the course of a comprehensive due diligence program. We have been very impressed by the technical capability and market success they've had, and the growth has been successfully delivered over the past several years.

Orica and Axis Mining Technology are highly complementary, and the strength of the combined footprint and customer relationships will support future growth plans for the Orica Digital Solutions business. The acquisition of Axis Mining Technology and the further development of Orica's Orebody Intelligence capability is also expected to deliver significant benefits to our core blasting capability and ultimately to our customers from a blast optimization and efficiency perspective. The acquisition is expected to be EPS accretive for the first full year of ownership, which is 2023. Chris will go through this later in the presentation. We've also agreed to pay an additional AUD 90 million in purchase price consideration to key management. They can earn none, some of it, or all of it based on agreed EBITDA growth targets being achieved. Earn-out is payable in early 2025.

The Axis management team are very excited about joining Orica, and we are very excited about welcoming them into the Orica family and integrating them into our business. We expect the transaction to be completed latest by October 2022. Turning now to slide nine. This, as you know, is our refreshed strategy that we launched last November. Axis is a natural fit in Orebody Intelligence with the digital solutions vertical, which is a nice segment to the next slide on page 10. Orica Digital Solutions with its core principles of being open, secure, and integrated is positioning Orica to become the industry's first end-to-end solutions provider. This journey started five years ago. Through our own development and acquisitions, Orica Digital Solutions business harnesses data, scientific knowledge, and domain expertise to fundamentally change the way our customers will operate in future.

Axis is a high-growth, high-margin business with very low capital intensity. As mentioned in the half year results, our intention is to show the contribution of our Digital Solutions business separately from the next financial year onwards. Turning now to slide 12. There are a number of key mega trends driving the resource industry right now, including growth in global production of gold, which is expected to continue supported by elevated prices. Future-facing commodities are forecast to demonstrate the fastest growth in the medium term. This includes copper across all regions and other future-facing commodities such as nickel and lithium in many countries, including here in Australia. Axis largely serves today copper and gold customers, and its geospatial technology will play a key role in positioning Orica to better capitalize on these key mega trends, hence a highly strategic acquisition for Orica.

There is a new emerging application of this technology in the targeting and the Q&C segment, which will also help us drive future growth of the business according to our corporate strategy. Turning now to slide 13. The combination of Axis' geospatial technology with Orica's global network and well-established digital solutions business is strategically compelling. Axis is a global player capable of providing a complete suite of technology products, including smart tools, instruments for customers with an already established presence in 30 countries, including Australia, Latin America, North America and Africa and Middle East. Our aim is to unlock massive growth opportunities for both businesses by significantly upselling and cross-selling across the combined customer network. Leveraging Orica's global distribution platform and relationships network to increase Axis' market penetration and scale and drive incremental growth, particularly in underrepresented regions.

Utilizing Axis technology to enhance existing Orica Orebody Intelligence products and core blasting technology portfolio. This will strengthen our capabilities across the mining value chain and our customer proposition, which you can see in the next few slides, numbers 14, 15, and 16. In the interest of time, I'll give you a quick overview of Axis operations, which you can see now on slide 18. Axis technology offering is primarily exposed to gold, copper and other future-facing commodities and leveraged to strong long-term industry trends. Importantly, Axis management team are leaders in the industry with over 60 years of combined experience and are committed to ensuring the successful integration of the business with Orica. It is a vertically integrated operation incorporating R&D, manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and aftermarket technology support and repair. Axis distributes products globally to over 30 countries, operating a direct and outsourced distributor model.

Axis generates revenue through product rental, optional product insurance, and direct sale of tools. Historically, Axis has achieved strong revenue growth of greater than 50% CAGR from 2016 to 2021. Putting all of this together, it's a high growth and margin business with low capital intensity. The next page gives us a preview of their products and services. Now turning to outlook on page 21. The earnings outlook for the 2022 financial year remains unchanged from the last time we spoke at the half period results in May and at Investor Day last week. For the year so far, results have been in line with our expectations, and we expect this to continue to the end of this financial year.

Like every other business around the globe, continued inflationary pressures, higher energy costs, and supply chain dislocations will remain an ongoing challenge, at least for the next 18 months or beyond. We will continue to implement cost and efficiency initiatives to help offset some of these impacts. We will remain extremely focused on commercial discipline to avoid any kinds of value leakage across our customer contracts. I now would like to hand over to Chris to talk about the opportunities.

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

Perfect. Thanks, Sanjeev. Turning to slide 23. As Sanjeev mentioned earlier, the acquisition of Axis Mining Technology will be funded through a fully underwritten institutional share placement of AUD 650 million. The underwritten institutional placement will be conducted at AUD 16 per new share, which represents a 7% discount to the last traded price of AUD 17.20 per share on the second of August. The institutional placement will result in approximately 40.6 million new shares being issued, representing approximately 9.9% of Orica's existing issued capital. The institutional placement will be open to existing and potentially new eligible institutional shareholders. Following the completion of the institutional placement, Orica will offer eligible shareholders in Australia and New Zealand the opportunity to participate in a non-underwritten share purchase plan, subject to an aggregate cap of AUD 75 million.

If we look at the sources and uses of funds on slide 24, just under 50% or AUD 368 million of the funds raised through the institutional placement will be used towards the following. The initial purchase consideration of AUD 250 million for Axis. The maximum deferred earn out payments of up to AUD 90 million payable to the shareholders of Axis upon delivery of cumulative EBITDA profile and associated acquisition and placement costs. The remaining funds, together with proceeds from the non-underwritten share purchase plan, will be used to provide additional balance sheet capacity, which I will talk to on the next slide. Turning to trade working capital requirements on slide 25.

As I've previously mentioned at the half year results presentation and the recent Investor Day, the impact of rising input costs on inventory valuation and trade receivables values that impacted the first half of the year is expected to continue impacting trade working capital and cash conversion over the balance of the 2022 financial year. The increase in trade working capital is driven by the significant increase in inventories associated with ammonia, a primary raw material in the production of ammonium nitrate. Significant increase in other raw material input costs as a result of inflationary pressures, as well as the need to secure additional and alternative sources of inventory as a result of global supply chain dislocations.

While the impact of these increases can be passed through to the majority of our customers through the contractual rise and fall mechanisms, allowing us to recover the movement in input costs and therefore does not impact earnings, it does have an impact on inventory and trade receivables value and the use of cash. Additionally, to ensure our customers' demand requirements are met during these uncertain times, we have used our extensive supply network to increase inventory levels, and we have contracted with new sources of supply of ammonium nitrate, albeit on shorter payment terms, impacting our payables balances. Given the impact of increase in trade working capital is expected to persist for some time, and we do not expect a short-term downward correction. We believe our actions in raising additional capital is appropriate in the current environment and consistent with our capital management framework.

By so doing, this will provide us with the capacity to respond to continued and ongoing supply chain disruption at a time of heightened inflationary pressures and an uncertain geopolitical outcome that is driving an increase in trade working capital. This aligns with our demonstrated prudent approach towards balance sheet management and the retention of our investment grade credit rating. Turning to the pro forma balance sheet on slide 26. Following the completion of the acquisition of Axis and the associated equity capital raising that will result in Orica's gearing reducing to the lower end of our target gearing range. This is very much aligned with our objective of ensuring we have sufficient funds to fund the earnout payment, as well as address Orica's increase in trade working capital and maintain our investment grade credit rating.

Looking specifically at the Axis balance sheet, negative cash and cash equivalents of AUD 257 million constitute the upfront payment consideration to the shareholders of Axis, as well as estimated acquisition costs. Looking at the timetable on slide 27. The placement bookbuild will take place today, 3rd of August 2022, with settlement of the new shares to take place on Monday, 8th of August 2022, and issuance of shares under the placement to occur on Tuesday, 9th of August 2022. The share purchase plan will then follow and is scheduled to open on Wednesday, tenth of August 2022, closing at 5 P.M. Melbourne time on Friday, 26th of August 2022.

Under the share purchase plan, eligible Orica shareholders will have the opportunity to apply for up to AUD 30,000 of new shares at the lower of the placement issue price and a 2% discount to the five-day volume weighted average price of Orica shares up to and including the closing date of the share purchase plan. This will be free of any brokerage, commission, and transaction costs. With that, I'll now open up to questions that you may have of either Sanjeev or myself. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Daniel Kang with CLSA. Please go ahead.

Daniel Kang
Head of Basic Industrials and Australian Equities Research, CLSA

Good morning, everyone. Just interested in the background to the Axis acquisition. Who are the ultimate owners or shareholders? How long has Axis been on your radar? Was it an opportunity that came to you? That's the first question.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Daniel, based on the question, I'll ask Andy, our Chief Development Officer, to respond to that one.

Andrew Stewart
Chief Development Officer, Orica

Good morning, all. Thank you, Sanjeev. We maintain a very comprehensive view of the landscape in the digital Mine-to-Mill value chain. Of course, this particular target has been on our peripheral vision for a number of months. We entered into a strategic conversation, a bilateral strategic conversation, a couple of months ago to get us to this wonderful juncture. In terms of the management team, it's a privately held business today owned by seven key executives that will maintaining our longevity in the business at least till 2025, and we're really pleased with that.

Daniel Kang
Head of Basic Industrials and Australian Equities Research, CLSA

Great. Sanjeev, you spoke about the high growth of Axis. Can you elaborate on that with regards to revenue and EBIT growth over recent years?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Yeah. The business over the last five years, Daniel, has been growing at a compound average growth rate of around 50% five-year. It's been a very fast-growing business. Gross margins in the range of 70%, very profitable. Also importantly, it's a capital-light business. It ticks all the boxes that we wanted.

Obviously we've been quite prudent in terms of you know offering a fair valuation, but also getting the promoters of the business to stay with the business so that you know all the future ambitions and plans and the scale-up that Orica can you know enable and also the complementary offerings with our own digital platform, all of that will create ongoing synergies which we have not factored in so far. All of that will come on board.

Daniel Kang
Head of Basic Industrials and Australian Equities Research, CLSA

Great. Just the last one, if I can, before I pass it on. In terms of, you spoke about revenue synergies. Can you elaborate on that as well as potential revenue leakage or risk of revenue leakage?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Yeah. First of all, obviously we get access to each other's customers. You know, there's the opportunity to up-sell and cross-sell.

Secondly, the geographical reach of Orica. You know, we are active in more than 100 countries. We will enable that it's easier for the Axis technologies to reach out to our existing customers, but also to new customers in all geographies, especially the difficult geographies like Africa, Latin America, emerging Asia, where there'll be new opportunities. That's the other top-line synergies. The third, obviously, is the exposure to future-facing commodities. I mean, Axis business is predominantly exposed to gold and copper, which you know is our strength. We have obvious access to mine sites all over the world, and we will be introducing the new technologies to all the miners all across the globe. That's the next opportunity to scale the business up.

I talked briefly in my speaking notes on a potential for this technology to extend into tunneling and Q&C. You know that we are a global leader in this market, and we will then obviously introduce and scale that technology up into new applications in that field. There are several in terms of top-line synergies. I don't see much potential for any kind of linkages. We've not identified anything during the due diligence, so I don't see much risk there.

Daniel Kang
Head of Basic Industrials and Australian Equities Research, CLSA

Thanks all.

Operator

Your next question comes from Scott Ryall with Rimor Equity Research. Please go ahead.

Scott Ryall
Founder and Principal, Rimor Equity Research

Oh, hi there. Thank you. I was wanting to ask about the integration. I think it's a bit further to the questions just been asked. You talk about the earn-out being payable based on cumulative EBITDA over a couple of years. I was wondering if that cumulative EBITDA represents growth from the AUD 22 million that you've indicated that's the run rate at the moment. And then how... One of the slides there, I forget which one, had a map of slide 10 showed, you know, the acquisition activity in this area has definitely stepped up in the last couple of years. I guess further to what you'd presented at the investor briefing a week or so ago, how good are you at integration of these businesses?

You know, obviously, you, as a company, haven't covered yourselves in glory in terms of how you've implemented SAP. I'm just wondering how you actually go about bringing the company within Orica and making sure that the broader benefits accrue to Orica, and I guess don't just encourage behavior that maximizes an earn-out payment as opposed to maximizes the value of the acquisition to the company.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Scott, I'll take the second question. I'll hand the first one over to Andy. I thought you would give us a little bit more credit for doing a decent job in integrating GroundProbe and everything else we have done ever since. We've used the same model. Basically, what we do is we bolt on these acquisitions. We keep that entrepreneurial spirit. We have retained all management that we've acquired over the last five years, and we have successfully scaled that business up. GroundProbe, as an example, is today the global leader in monitoring, and we continue to invest in that business, and we continue to grow that business. We've done the same, by the way, with Exsa, which is not a topic of today's discussion. Remember, we've done this in a virtual environment during COVID when we could not travel.

Exsa is now basically hitting and exceeding all our expectations there. I was hoping you would, you know, give us a little bit of credit for that. Talking about the new business, it'll be the same model as GroundProbe. We will bolt them all into our existing Orica Digital Solutions business. In fact, in this one, what we are doing is we are going to move our own orebody offering, which is basically RHINO into the Axis business because Axis is much bigger. We will then form the core of Orebody Intelligence, and then we'll start to, you know, upselling, cross-selling, and then leveraging every synergy and reach that Orica has in terms of scaling that business up. The management team has committed to stay with us, which is fantastic.

We are getting more than 60 years of experience here of industry-leading technology. Now it's all about scale, rapid expansion, and maintaining the high profitability of the business. To your first question, I'll hand over to Andrew, our Chief Development Officer.

Andrew Stewart
Chief Development Officer, Orica

Yeah. Thank you, Sanjeev. In terms of the annuity earn-out target, that is a vendor forecast, and it absolutely maintains the growth momentum that the business has seen to date. Again, you know, as Sanjeev mentioned, we will stand shoulder to shoulder with the business to unlock the revenue synergies that we've set forth that we will.

Scott Ryall
Founder and Principal, Rimor Equity Research

Okay.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Scott, we are betting on our success, and their success is our success now. Since we are now one team, we'll do everything to make that a massive success for our shareholders.

Scott Ryall
Founder and Principal, Rimor Equity Research

Yep, understood. Could you just maybe comment, I know you're probably putting words into their mouths, but why did Axis want to join up with Orica, sorry?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Yeah. I'll hand this over to Angus. He's here. You met last week.

Scott Ryall
Founder and Principal, Rimor Equity Research

Yeah.

Angus Melbourne
CTO, Orica

Thanks so much. I mean, they've done a great job building the business over the last five or si years. They've reached their distribution, you know, capacity, particularly. You know, they've done a great job in Australia and North America. They're using some third-party distributors into other parts of the globe. They see that the next step for their growth and scale really requires a partner like Orica with the global footprint and distribution to take it into some of their key markets, particularly the copper and gold exposure. Latin America and Africa are key growth areas for us. They also bought into the overall digital solution strategy of building an Orebody Intelligence business.

Now we're building that on the spine of Axis, where Axis will be the heart of that pillar.

Scott Ryall
Founder and Principal, Rimor Equity Research

Okay, great. Thank you. That's all I had.

Angus Melbourne
CTO, Orica

Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Your next question comes from Richard Johnson with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks very much. Sanjeev, just firstly, can I just clarify that this is the only acquisition you're actually working on at the moment, please?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

We normally screen between 10-12 targets every year, but we've been very disciplined. We are very stringent with our internal hurdles, and this is the only one that we are able to realize. There's nothing else on the horizon that we can talk about today. Again, you know, we want to have a seat at the table whenever there's an opportunity. If it fits into our financial expectation, it is part of the strategy. We continue to screen all the time.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Perfect. Thank you. That's very helpful. Secondly, this might be one for Chris. The last bullet point on the front page of your release mentions your RONA target, and that the acquisition would hit that. Should we use that as a starting point for what the EBIT contribution from the business would, will be in 2023?

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

Yeah, Richard, you can use that. Bear in mind in 2023, your asset base is about AUD 260 million. Unless you get to about the third year, there's potential uplift because of the earn-out payments.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Got it. Just purely for 2023, we could-

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Richard, can I just.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

We could use -

Can I just caution you there?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

You go.

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

Is that the RONA? It's an accounting number. That already takes into account an estimated purchase price adjustment for amortization of goodwill.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. Is it possible to know what that number is?

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

Sorry, what? Which number?

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

The amortization.

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

It's probably single digits, sort of towards the top end. We've still gotta finalize it. We have 12 months to finalize it.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Got it. Thank you. Finally, I mean, I think this was obvious from the presentation, but just to double-check. In all your assumptions, you haven't assumed any contribution from the SPP. Is that right?

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

Correct.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Perfect. Thank you. That's it for me. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Daniel Peters with Spheria Asset Management. Please go ahead.

Daniel Peters
Portfolio Manager and Head of Research, Spheria Asset Management

Morning. Just wondering if you could talk through the rationale for acquiring this type of technology versus say licensing it. I suppose on a similar note, you know, what it would take to develop this type of thing internally, noting that there is a fair bit of expertise within the group already, in this sort of domain. Thanks.

Angus Melbourne
CTO, Orica

Yeah. I'm happy to take that, Angus again. Over the last five years, we've been standing up the digital solutions business, which started anchored in blasting, and this is sensors, software, and data science applications. We've also harbored moving upstream and downstream in adjacencies. The first move was downstream with the acquisition of GroundProbe and some internal developments around our own measurement technologies like FRAGTrack. We also flagged as part of that strategy the importance of moving upstream into Orebody Intelligence, particularly because of the key link between geotech information and blasting. Over the last couple of years, we've acquired and built internally measurement capability, geotech measurement capability. The missing piece in the Orebody Intelligence puzzle was the geospatial information, and that's what Axis brings to the table.

Now, with Axis combined with our existing Orebody Intelligence geotech measurement capabilities, we've now got a full suite of offering in the Orebody Intelligence space.

Daniel Peters
Portfolio Manager and Head of Research, Spheria Asset Management

Why, I mean, why couldn't you have licensed the product, I suppose? You still would have filled in that same piece of the puzzle.

Angus Melbourne
CTO, Orica

Yeah. Look, I think Axis has got some really great technology that they've packaged, particularly as they've moved from the more traditional EMS or the multi-shot to a north-seeking gyro capability. They've developed a great product and got a great position in the market.

Daniel Peters
Portfolio Manager and Head of Research, Spheria Asset Management

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from John Purtell with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

John Purtell
Divisional Director and Senior Analyst, Macquarie

Good morning. Can you hear us?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

John, you'll have to get a bit louder because you're very faint.

John Purtell
Divisional Director and Senior Analyst, Macquarie

Sorry, is that better, Sanjeev?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Much better.

John Purtell
Divisional Director and Senior Analyst, Macquarie

Yeah. Thank you. Just a couple of comments, questions, please. Just in terms of the synergies, are you able to sort of indicate what the multiple might look like, the 11.8x pre might look like on a post-synergy basis?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

No. The number that we put out there is all pre-synergies. We do not expect much in terms of cost synergies. We do expect a lot in terms of top-line synergies. I think I referred to that earlier. Expanding geographical scope of the business, expanding commodity mix, you know, investigating potential technology applications in the future. All of that is top-line, but it is all, nothing is factored in. Obviously, you know, the growth plans for the future, the next 3-5 years, we will develop and scale the business and the technologies up, and we continue to grow the business. We have not yet considered that in the valuations.

John Purtell
Divisional Director and Senior Analyst, Macquarie

Okay, thank you. Just a question for Chris. In terms of page 25 of the presentation, where you talk about supply chain dislocations and trade working capital, which of the three factors there, Chris, will be most impactful on the working capital side?

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

The biggest ones will be the impact on the value of inventory, because of the increase in the ammonia prices. That also impacts on debtors, just so you're aware, because debtors, obviously, inventory translates into a sale. Secondly, the other component is the increase in goods received and revolving as a result of the supply chain disruptions. They're probably similar in value.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

John, just to remind everybody that the second half, normally, of the financial year is a seasonal high for Orica.

John Purtell
Divisional Director and Senior Analyst, Macquarie

Yeah.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Obviously that also has an impact, which means more throughput and more volumes, but also more need for feedstock and raw material. All of that adds up.

John Purtell
Divisional Director and Senior Analyst, Macquarie

Got it. Thank you. Just the last question, if I can, just in terms of the guidance comment there and the commentary around ongoing inflationary and energy costs will remain a challenge in 2023. There's no mention of sort of offsetting price. I mean, you're still broadly expecting price recovery to offset these pressures.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Yeah, John, look, this is just a reminder to everybody that, you know, we are in a very difficult global environment. We have geopolitical uncertainties, we have supply chain disruptions, we have inflation. All of this is ongoing. Don't forget, we still struggle with COVID in some parts of the world. You know, we have managed to tackle all of those challenges. We have managed to mitigate those inflations. We have done internal cost reduction programs. We have been very disciplined commercially. Nothing will change. We'll continue to be very disciplined. We continue to mitigate as much as we can. This is just a reminder to all of us that we are in a very volatile environment. Let's not forget that. Obviously, Orica now has experience. We are a more resilient organization.

Our pricing discipline is now hardwired into the organization, into the system with our ERP. We continue to do that, but it's a constant challenge. You know, I call it as an equivalent, I say we are running on a treadmill, and we're trying to do everything we can to keep our heads above water. But this has got nothing to do with the underlying business. I feel very comfortable where we are, but it is just to remind everybody that there will be other uncertainties in the future and Orica will focus on what we can control and influence as we have done in our H1 FY 2024.

John Purtell
Divisional Director and Senior Analyst, Macquarie

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Nathan Reilly with UBS. Please go ahead.

Nathan Reilly
Head of Australian Industrial Materials Research, UBS

Good morning. A question for Chris. How much inventory are you carrying right now? I think you had about just over AUD 800 million back at March. Can you give us an idea how much you're carrying right now?

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

Look, I mean, I typically disclose this. Fast to say, I had indicated at March there was a number of pre-payments of secure inventory that I hold in non-trade working capital. That will flow through. We're expecting a fairly healthy increase as we go into the second half and a seasonal impact with the higher volumes.

Nathan Reilly
Head of Australian Industrial Materials Research, UBS

Okay, what? Over AUD 1 billion?

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

I'm not gonna quote that number.

Nathan Reilly
Head of Australian Industrial Materials Research, UBS

Well, can you maybe just give us an idea of what you're planning for in terms of FY 2023 inventory balances as well, relative to where you're sitting at the moment? Would you be expecting them to be holding steady or do it? I mean, obviously, it's gonna be dependent on price, but maybe just from more around an inventory supply and you know, a volume point of view.

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

I mean, Nathan, there's so many uncertain variables. I mean, where's the price of ammonia gonna go? What's gonna happen on geopolitical tension? If the situation today continues, we expect that our trade working capital will remain at current levels. At some point, we would expect this to come down in the future, and then we should normalize to a rough level of about 10%-12% of revenue. What I'm comfortable is that from a debtors perspective, we don't have an overdue debtors problem. What I'm comfortable from an inventory perspective is we don't have old and long dated inventory. The stuff that's being used, I mean, making sure our customers' needs are being met. It has no impact on our earnings because of the rise and fall mechanism. It's just an absorption of cash at the moment as we maintain security of supply.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Just to add to that, all the inventory that we build up is either pre-sold or contracted.

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

Sure.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

We are not building up inventory on speculation because it's obviously already very challenging to get everything that our customers need. As I have mentioned in the past, our manufacturing assets are running flat out. It's not that we have been building up inventory, like, indiscriminately. It's all either pre-sold or contracted, but obviously it has an impact on cash.

Nathan Reilly
Head of Australian Industrial Materials Research, UBS

Understood. Thanks very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Richard Johnson with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Just a couple of things on Axis, if I may, please. Sorry, I was on mute. Firstly, I'm just trying to understand that as you grow the business, geographically in particular, is there any structural reason why the margins, the gross margins you mentioned, will change at all, either up or down?

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

No, Richard. As Sanjeev has said, we've got no reason to believe the margins will erode in that market.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

I mean, Richard, there's one impact that Axis has been using a lot of distribution to reach geographies where they do not have direct access. Again, access to certain things. You know, in future, they're going to use Orica network. We have people on the ground all across the globe in every geography. We're on every mine site if possible. And obviously, they'll leverage off our infrastructure. This also includes warehousing capability, you know, stock points all over the globe. Something that I talked about last week in terms of our geographical reach. Axis team will fully leverage this, and that obviously helps in terms of margin leakage.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Great. That's all intents and purposes, would it be right to say that they've done the work at actually opening up the markets, and then you can just take it to the next level? Are there opportunities for you to go in, into markets where, you know, where they're not present at all?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Both are correct statements. We'll obviously cross-sell, up-sell on both sides. We have access to their customer base, they have access to our customer base. Obviously, we've also gone in for new geographies. More importantly, new commodities where we are active, they are not necessarily as active today. Obviously, I talked about Q&C and the other opportunities in the Asia-Pacific. There's a lot of-

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Yeah.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

You done? No, that's it?

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. That's it. Just finally, Sanjeev, and excuse my ignorance here, and I apologize if you touched on it, but could you just give me a sense of who their customers actually are?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Their current exposure is predominantly to gold and copper customers all across the globe. There is obviously some overlap with the Orica customer base, because, you know, we are very strong with gold and copper in our own commodity exposure. There is some overlap, but there are also new customers at their end, and there are obviously a lot of customers that are waiting for this technology.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Okay. The customer is the mine owner rather than the operator, or it could be both, right?

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Both.

Richard Johnson
Director of Research and Paper and Packaging Analyst, Jefferies

Okay, great. That's it. That's very helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Scott Ryall with Rimor Equity Research. Please go ahead.

Scott Ryall
Founder and Principal, Rimor Equity Research

Hi. Thank you. Just to follow up on that. Angus, you mentioned in the answer that wouldn't be a question that Axis. And I might be putting words in your mouth, I apologize, but it rounds out your product suite in Orebody Intelligence. Leaving aside internal capability development and working with customers and those sorts of things, is this what you're trying to say is this gives you a more holistic suite of products? And I can interpret that as saying you feel pretty complete in terms of going into customers now with the three products that you mentioned on slide 15.

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

Yeah, absolutely. I think there's a couple of pieces to this because there's today, in the Orebody Intelligence space, like much of the mining value chain is quite fragmented. Customers are buying these measurements today. With the inclusion of the RIG technologies, plus now the Axis technologies, we've got the geotech measurements and the geospatial measurements. The inclusion of the RIG Technologies gives us the while-drilling infrastructure because we see an evolution. These measurements are taken today on wireline and on drill, but they will increasingly move to a while-drilling environment. The RIG infrastructure is really important for that. When I say complete suite, we've got geotech measurements, now geospatial, plus some infrastructure to migrate to while-drilling environments.

Scott Ryall
Founder and Principal, Rimor Equity Research

Okay, great. Just to follow up on the questions that Chris was answering on inventory, I would imagine that all of your competitors have the same pressures on inventory at the moment. Is part of the thinking behind the additional capital to just cover off on the inventory to actually put yourself in a better competitive position for the near term?

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. If you look where the predominant inventory problems are from an additional sourcing perspective, that's Latin America and the EMEA business, where we don't have our own manufacturing capacity. In countries like Australia and in particular, North America, we have the capacity. Well, that becomes more a rate and a value comparing equation because of the inventory is going up. The cost generation over years.

Scott Ryall
Founder and Principal, Rimor Equity Research

Okay. Thank you. That's all I had.

Operator

Your next question comes from Nicholas Rawlinson with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Nicholas Rawlinson
Senior Associate and Equities Analyst, Jefferies

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I was just wondering what proportion of Axis' revenue is exploration and what proportion is production. The business is a key competitor for IMDEX, and IMDEX is 80% exploration. I'm just wondering if there are any key differences that you'd call out.

Christopher Davis
CFO, Orica

There's a balance between exploration and development, a proportion between both. There's exposure to both sides.

Nicholas Rawlinson
Senior Associate and Equities Analyst, Jefferies

Thanks, guys.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Gandhi for closing remarks.

Sanjeev Gandhi
CEO, Orica

Thank you all for joining. I know this was short notice. We are obviously available today and the next days to answer any other questions and to give you further insights as necessary. We are very excited to welcome the Axis team. As we promised you all in the next reporting cycle, hopefully in May next year, we'll start talking about the financials of Orica Digital Solutions, and you will obviously get more insight into this very fast-growing, high-margin, exciting business, which is part of our strategy. Thank you all for joining, and we look forward to further discussions as we go ahead with this. Thank you.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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