Good morning. Welcome to the Financial Year 2023 Results Investor and Analyst Briefing. My name is Filip Kidon, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations for the Qantas Group. I'll now hand over to our CEO, Alan Joyce, and our CFO, Vanessa Hudson, to take you through the results. Thank you.
Thank you very much, everybody, can I first of all acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land on which we meet, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation, and pay my respects to elders, past and present. Thank you for joining us for the Qantas financial year 2023 Results Briefing. I'm joined, as Phil said, by our CFO, Vanessa Hudson, and the incoming CEO, Vanessa Hudson. Not two people, the same person. She's going to be helping me get through this presentation and answer the questions at the end. As always, we're joined by members of the GMC, our Group Management Committee, and let me introduce the people that are here. There's John Gissing, who's Head of QantasLink, Safety and a few other things. There's Olivia Wirth, who's the CEO of Qantas Loyalty.
Andrew David, who has been the CEO of the Qantas Airlines and is currently CEO of Qantas Domestic. Andrew will be helping us and John with anything that's happened in the past, to talk about what's happened in financial year 2023. We've also got Rob Marcolina, who's Head of People, IT, and Strategy, and is the incoming CFO. Rob will cover questions related to the IT strategy and transformation. We've Andrew McGinnes, who's Head of Government Affairs and Corporate Affairs, so if there's any questions on government issues, Andrew can help on that. We've Andrew Finch, who's Company Secretary and Head of the Office of the CEO, which covers a number of different areas. Andrew Parker... All the Andrews are sitting together nearly, aren't they?
Andrew Parker, who's our Chief Sustainability Officer, happy to talk about the amazing progress we've made in that area, particularly around this latest fleet order. Markus Svensson, who's taking over, is currently the Chief Customer Officer, but in September, the end of September, is taking over as the CEO of Qantas Domestic. Marcus will be talking about anything going forward and relating to the domestic business. We've Stephanie Tully, who's the CEO of the Jetstar Group, we've Cam Wallace, who in July took over as the CEO of Qantas International, Cam will be talking about any future issues relating to demand and activity like that. I hope that isn't too complex, and let's see how that works. If everybody sort of keeps to their lane, that would be good, wouldn't it?
No. No, what? Pardon.
Our format for today will be consistent with previous investor briefings. I'm gonna give some opening remarks, and then we're gonna leave plenty of time for questions. This morning, the Qantas Group reported an underlying profit before tax of AUD 2.47 billion for the financial year 2023. The statutory profit after tax was AUD 1.74 billion, and earnings per share were AUD 0.96. Our surveys have constantly shown that consumers are prioritizing travel over other categories, and the results today are testimony of that. All of our flying businesses performed well, with strong travel demand underpinning performance. Both Qantas Domestic and Qantas International achieved operating margins in excess of their targets, and Jetstar Domestic had a record second half as its operational performance significantly improved, and is on track to meet its targets.
Qantas Loyalty also had an exceptional year, supported by membership growth, a large uplift in hotels and holiday bookings, and strong performance from financial services. The business delivered above the top end of its guidance range. Supported by the recovery of international flying and the completions of a recovery plan, operating cash flows were also very strong at AUD 5.1 billion. The strong cash flow performance support growth in fleet investments, with 10 new aircraft delivered during the year, and substantial progress payments made to Airbus for future deliveries. Coupled with shareholders' returns of AUD 1 billion, it resulted in net debt at AUD 2.9 billion at the end of the year. This is almost AUD 2 billion below pre-COVID levels and almost AUD 1 billion below our targeted range. With liquidity at over AUD 10 billion, the group's balance sheet remained exceptionally strong.
Five years ago, we set ambitious targets for financial year 2024. With the completion of our AUD 1 billion recovery plan, we are well on our way to achieving these, with parts of our portfolio already there. Qantas Loyalty is expected to meet its target by the end of the calendar year, six months ahead of target. As we outlined on our Investor Day, this will represent a step change in profitability at the Qantas Group. Another key theme on Investor Day was sustainability. New aircraft technology is key to reducing our emissions, we do know that that's not enough. That's why we recently announced our AUD 400 million Climate Fund. Today, we're doubling down to announce we have secured access for up to 500 million liters of sustainable aviation fuel as part of our wide-body fleet renewal program with both Airbus and Boeing.
I think that gets us to up to 90% of our 2030 commitments in SAF. There is more to do, especially in relation to an Australian SAF industry, but this puts the group in a very strong position with the potential to meet that 90% of our targets for that year. Turning to our business results, Qantas Domestic achieved underlying EBIT of AUD 1.27 billion, led by strength in corporate and SME, continued strength in resource market, as well as in the leading domestic operational performance, supporting a strong NPS recovery. Jetstar Domestic delivered underlying EBIT of AUD 255 million, an operating margin of 11%. With over 9 million fares sold below AUD 100 in financial year 2023, the Jetstar Group continues to offer market-leading low-fare travels for all of our customers.
Qantas International delivered an underlying EBIT of over $1 billion, supported by cost transformation, a step change in freight, and strong travel demand. Qantas Loyalty delivered underlying EBIT of $451 million, with record points earned, bookings in hotels, holidays and tours almost doubling, and our fast-growing Qantas Business Rewards program now capturing 1 in 5 Australian small and medium-sized enterprises. Recovering and moving to new levels of profitability means we can continue to invest in our future. Today, we announced the final piece of our long-term jet fleet plan, replacing our A330s and ultimately our A380s. In particular, the board has approved firm orders of 24 new wide-body aircraft for Qantas, a mix of A350s and Boeing 787s. The first of these new aircraft will arrive in financial year 2027 to replace our A330s over several years.
Our A380s still have a lot of life left in them, especially given the cabin upgrades, which we're getting amazing feedback from our customers. As part of the pipeline we're building, they will be replaced by Airbus A350-1000s from about financial year 2032 onwards. Like the narrow-body renewal we announced last year, we have negotiated options and purchase rights, which we can draw down as needed for further replacement of aircraft or for future growth. Importantly, our financial framework will continue to guide our decision-making, and the phasing of these orders, coupled with flexibility to shift deliveries, gives us confidence that we can be funded within our debt range and through earnings while we continue to return money to our shareholders. On that note, I am pleased to announce the board has approved a further on-market buyback of up to AUD 500 million.
Turning to the outlook, the group is seeing strong trading conditions into the first half of financial year 2024, we're seeing strong intent to travel continue. The group's dual brand strategy and our loyalty membership continue to uniquely position our portfolio to navigate the macroeconomic conditions. While fares have been moderating, the recent increases in fuel prices are expected to be offset, the group maintains flexibility to adjust capacity settings if needed. Our investor slides include further information on intake trends and key financial assumptions for financial year 2024. Our people have absolutely been critical to this recovery. In the middle of the pandemic, we announced incentives to help retain the talent we needed to secure our recovery and our future growth.
With the recovery now complete, more than 21,000 of our people will share in around AUD 340 million in shares and bonuses. Our customers have also been crucial to our recovery, sticking with us through a challenging restart when not everything went to plan across the entire aviation industry. The best we can thank them is to deliver the standards that they rightly expect and reinvest our profits to keep improving their experience. That's what we're doing. This is my last full year results as Qantas Group CEO. There's going to be a whole series of balloons and confetti that are going to fly at the end of this.
Just get ready.
... It's been an extremely challenging period, but I'm pleased to say that the future of the national carrier is in very solid ground. The group's financial stability is clear. We're in the strongest financial position we've ever been. Our balance sheet is the strongest it's been in decades, and it's set up to remain strong. We've taken AUD 1 billion in costs, and there's been a structural change to our earnings to deliver a new level of profitability. Put simply, we can afford to invest and grow, especially in new fleet, while still delivering returns to shareholders. I know that from November, Vanessa will be a very safe pair of hands to lead all this going forward, to provide the leadership, drive, and foresight to make the most of the opportunities ahead for the Qantas Group. Thank you, and we'll now open it to questions.
Your first question comes from Jakob Cakarnis with Jarden Australia. Please go ahead.
Hey, Jake.
Morning, Alan. Morning, Vanessa. Can I just focus on the change to the guidance, at the group domestic level for capacity into 24, please? It's been just a, a minor recalibration there. Can we just get, maybe Marcus and Steph to talk to what they're seeing in that reduced capacity, please?
Yeah, let's go. Do you want to go Markus first and then Steph?
Yeah. I, I, I can start. Thank you, Jakob. Great name, by the way. Good question. Just let's be very clear, domestic demand is very strong. We're seeing our leisure intakes, group leisure intakes at 132% intakes every week, pre-COVID levels. For Qantas, domestic business purpose travel is 107%. Demand remains very strong. Even if you look at the business purpose demand, yes, you can unpack it and see resources, construction, government is well above pre-COVID levels. When you look at other sectors like the financial services, consulting, manufacturing, in revenue terms, above pre-COVID levels. In terms of passenger growth, RPK growth is still behind.
We know that because the same day travel is not coming back or has not come back to the levels of pre-COVID. Having that said, though, if you look at our business purpose demand, where we're at, a couple of years ago, we said when people were out there saying it's gonna be half, it's never gonna come back, we said it's gonna be about 87%. We are well ahead of that, so our demand is strong. When it comes to capacity, I'll just quickly touch upon that, and I'll hand over to Steph. What you're seeing in domestic capacity is the dynamic model and the strength of our business model. We have the dual brand, where we have capacity between Qantas and Jetstar, but also for the Qantas Group, the ability to move capacity from domestic to international.
For example, we moved some domestic capacity to international. We're upgrading Sydney-Denpasar to an A330. We're putting on a double daily Melbourne-Singapore. We have that ability to move capacity around. Having that said, that we do operate in a high fuel environment. I'll let Steph talk a little bit more about Jetstar.
Yeah. Hey, Jake. I think just to echo what Markus said, what we're seeing at the low fares price sensitive end of the market is incredibly strong demand environment, week after week, record intakes well over 130% of what we were getting in FY 2019. The demand environment for leisure travel, we genuinely think there's been a structural change to that, and that people will never, ever not be planning a holiday again after a few years of being locked up. The bookings are very strong, the intake is strong. Even in the research at the price sensitive end of the market, we're seeing incredibly sustained, strong demand for travel, both in the, the near term, but also a longer term across domestic and international.
Jetstar for FY 2024 is at 110% versus FY 2019. That is a strong amount of growth for Jetstar coming. We also have aircraft arriving this year. We've got nine NEOs in Australia now. We'll have 18 by the end of next year. That means we also have the lever that Qantas has, 'cause those NEOs are flying in domestic and international markets. We will use them according to the demand. You see incredible growth in Jetstar that's, that's cemented with our improved operational performance as well. Thanks, Jake.
Jake, it might be useful if we can get Liv to talk about... 'Cause she's got a very good perspective of what's happening in the research, what's happening around people's priorities, and what's happening across the economy with loyalty. I think it'd be very informative if she says-
Yeah
... a few words.
Thanks, Alan. Hi, Jakob, it really sort of wraps up, I think, what both Markus and Steph have talked to. We've been tracking intention of consumers and their intent to travel for some time, including during the COVID period, and we've been talking to you about that. What we're seeing in the latest data, it truly shows that there is a strong intention to travel both domestically and internationally, and this is significantly up compared to pre-COVID, and it is at a sustained level. When you have a look at international, for example, and we talk to our, our members, our consumers, and we say: "What is your intent to travel?" You've got over 31% of them indicating the next six months, they intend to travel internationally. We've never seen such strong intent. That's one thing.
When you have a look at from a loyalty perspective, you think about our membership base, you think about the affluence that we have within the Qantas Frequent Flyer program, we have a disproportionate number of medium and higher affluent members within our base. What we see from them, we know that they intend to travel more. They do in a normal time, but particularly now, they're spending more on travel.
We've got over 35% of credit card spend in this market, which gives us a really good insight into how our members are spending, and we can see this coming through. We can also see it in redemptions. Airline redemptions have doubled compared to pre-COVID. As Alan talked to, part of the driver for the loyalty result is the redemptions and activity in hotels and holidays. When you wrap all this together, it shows strong intent, it shows strong intakes, and it shows that there is a step change in consumers choosing to spend discretionary income on travel above every other category.
Thanks, Liv. Next question?
Your next question comes from Anthony Moulder with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hey, Anthony.
Good morning, all. I, I might follow on from that, 'cause we, we're seeing Virgin obviously reduce their capacity for first half 2024 domestically. Obviously, take those comments on the strength of leisure, we're seeing that in the growth in capacity for Jetstar. Are you, are you starting to see more of a move away from Virgin to the Jetstar brand? Are you seeing any impacts from Qantas into Virgin, please?
Steph?
Hey, Anthony. I think, I think first and foremost, I'd say we're just both Qantas and Jetstar, we're focused on running our own race. Absolutely, I think our structural advantage in this market is that we have two ends of the market covered. Virgin's proposition is a little more confusing, I would say, and somewhat in the middle. Qantas absolutely covering the value premium customer. Jetstar, as Alan said, we've had 9.2 million fares under AUD 100. We've absolutely got the low end of the market covered, and a very clear proposition for our customers. When they're booking, they know what to expect with Jetstar, they know what to expect with Qantas. Operationally, I think it's really important to point out, Qantas has now beat Jetstar 11 out of 12 months, on track to beat them 12.
Virgin.
Virgin, sorry. Actually for Jetstar, I wanna trumpet my own team, but in the last 2 months, we've beat Virgin operationally, and we're on track to do that again. We're doing that despite having fares that are 20%-30% less than Virgin. The proposition, I think, in the Australian market is very clear, and the, the two brands that we've got in this business have that market covered.
I think that's a good point, Anthony. I think the Virgin performance over this period of time, it's the, the, the longest period of time that we've beaten Virgin in OTP and cancellation levels, and some of the gaps are the biggest gaps in the month that that's taken place. I wouldn't be surprised if they're trying to focus on getting that operation back into stability or competitive against Qantas, and that they've a long way to go in order to achieve that. Next question.
Your next question comes from Owen Birrell with RBC. Go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. I've just got a question around, I guess, the RASK-CASK spread. I, I think previously you've indicated that RASK would be under pressure as capacity was, was coming on. Today, it suggested that capacity is not coming on as, as, as quickly as you probably maybe previously indicated, and that the RASK is actually holding up very well. My question is: looking forward with costs coming out, how should we think about your RASK, CASK spread? Are you looking to defend existing margins or ultimately grow margins by holding the RASK high and letting the costs come out?
Well, we've been pretty clear that we are targeting 18% margin for Qantas Domestic and 15% for Jetstar Domestic. What we are seeing, as you have pointed out, we are seeing that yields are moderating, and that's a great thing for our customers, and we're seeing that across both Qantas and Jetstar. Actually, the moderation in yields and RASK, as you know, is a function of yields and seat factor, and so we're gonna be focused on obviously ensuring that that spread that you talk about between RASK and CASK that is going to actually widen. Hopefully, as, as capacity comes back, our cost will reduce. The billion-dollar program that we've now completed that is going to be very prevalent in our cost base next year.
Also the transitionary costs that we've previously flagged are unwinding as capacity comes back. If we look forward, we're very focused on making sure that in this current market, that fuel price is actually covered through RASK. The momentum that we've got with the demand that we see in the forecast is going to enable us to maintain that RASK momentum as well into, into the FY 20 24.
Next question.
Your next question comes from Anthony Longo with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hey, Anthony.
Hi, Alan. Hi, team. Just a quick question from me on, on loyalty. There was, there was clearly a, a very strong result. Can you perhaps run through the color as to, you know, how you're ultimately gonna achieve that FY 2024 target 6 months ahead of schedule? That's, certainly a very strong result.
Yeah, it's a great result. Liv?
Yeah, sure. Thanks for the question. What we are seeing, and what we have seen, I guess, in the FY 2023 result, including the second half, is that there is really strong momentum in the business. When you look at what the key drivers are for the loyalty business, it's really in three buckets. You've got membership, and you've got growth and engagement of our members. We had a record and additional 1 million members joining the program in the last, in FY 2023, which is a really strong result, and importantly, the engagement is also very high. From an earn perspective, the financial services part of our portfolio continues to be strong. We've got a strong acquisition of credit cards, and spend on cards is at about 110% compared to pre-COVID.
Importantly, our coalition business, so the everyday earn, continues to perform. You've got really strong earn coming through across all verticals. From a burn perspective, from the redemption perspective, equally, I talked to that before, we've seen record redemptions in our airline business and also importantly in our hotels business.
When you've got these three aspects, these three core drivers that drive the loyalty ecosystem, we have really strong momentum coming through, particularly in the second half, when we expect that that will continue into the first half of FY 2024, which gives us the confidence to say that we will hit that long-standing target of AUD 500 million-AUD 600 million six months early. It's all based on momentum. It's all based on the 3 core drivers that really drive the loyalty flywheel and we're very focused on making sure that we can continue to continue to grow this business as we now look out to FY 2030.
Thanks, Liv. Next question?
Your next question comes from Samuel Seow with Citi. Please go ahead.
Yes, Sam.
Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. When I think about the international capacity guide, and then in, in light of your fleet as well, it looks like you've got about 10% less red tail wide-body plane. Now, I appreciate that doesn't take into consideration gauge, but just wondering, at a higher level, with less wide bodies, can Qantas get back to 100% before the Sunrise planes arrive, or any color there on how we should think about that?
Who wants to have a go at that? Cam?
Thanks. Yes, we've got a lot of fleet flexibility. We're at about 91 capacity at the moment, 91%, and we expect to get back to 100% by March 2024. We've got a lot of flexibility within the group, both in terms of our domestic business as well as the international. We also have flexibility in terms of our short-haul operation, being able to utilize the domestic fleet. That's one of the sources of competitive advantage, that we have in the Qantas Group. As we look at incrementally starting up new markets, they have been very successful ahead of business case. We're seeing where we enter into new markets with partners, we're performing, better than expectation and better than the business case. We, we certainly want to get back to 100% flying, as soon as practical.
The one thing that I'd probably add to that, Sam, is that utilization and driving utilization is a big, big part of, of the way in which we're deploying our assets. As Cam said, that, that we're deploying them across new markets, but also we've got leased capacity coming in with Finnair, which is both enabling us to continue to grow, but that's also enabling us to release additional lines of flying to be able to grow across our network as well. That combined, you, you'll absolutely see that that's gonna deliver us getting back to 100%.
Next question.
Your next question comes from Cameron McDonald with E&P.
Hey, Cam.
Please, go ahead.
Hey, Cam.
Good morning, look, just congratulations, firstly, Alan, on the final result, and to you and the team. Can I just ask sort of some further details around Project Fysh, if I can? Just so how do we think about that, you know, aircraft renewal order? Where I'm heading with this is, one, around the RASK and then one around the CASK, and then thinking about, you know, the number of seats on the A350-1000 versus the A380 and the A330 on balance. Are you actually gonna maintain pressure on pricing, because you're actually reducing the number of, you know, of the capacity in that footprint? Then also thinking about, you know, you've highlighted a 20% improvement in fuel for the 787-9s and 25 for the 10s, and then a 25 for the A350s. As a very quick follow-on, I'm assuming these 12 A350s won't have the additional fuel tank capacity.
Yeah, I, I can, I can take a stab at that, and then Alan will mop up anything that I think that I've forgotten. The A350s and the 787s, which are both 787-9s and 787-10s, they will replace the flying early on in that process. From FY 2027, they'll replace the A330s, which are older at this point in time. They're gonna be deployed across our Asian network, but they've also got the capacity to be able to fly across the Pacific as well. They're gonna be a highly a desirable aircraft and drive significant utilization. The A350s as well, when they come, they are also gonna be deployed more on the longer flight routes that we've got, particularly replacing ultimately the A380.
When you actually look at the difference in the configurations between those aircraft, clearly the A380 is a larger aircraft, and the A350s, when they replace it, it won't be one for one. The, the key part of our strategy going forward with these aircraft is going to be about opening up new routes, more point-to-point routes. That's a key part of our strategy for international that we outlined in Investor Day, that network diversification and flying more point to point, with actually a higher premium mix as well, serves the Australian, particularly domestic market and our home market strength, across that, that broader network. It's gonna be really hard to do a compare on compare analysis, but we are going to, and we have sufficient aircraft above the 24 firm orders to replace all the A330s and the A380s.
Also the options and the rights that we have will enable us to grow with the international market. We're not just thinking that it's gonna be 1 for 1, and we are seeing that the international market's gonna continue to grow, particularly in the premium end of, of, of the market, and so we see that that's gonna be around about 3% year on year. The flexibility that we also have in the order book with Airbus and Boeing is gonna enable us to make sure that we keep that in balance and that we match our capacity with demand. If I just take a step back in terms of these aircraft, they are a significant technology advancement. They're going to enable us to have the right seats on the right routes, particularly in terms of seat mix.
They're gonna have a range and performance that will drive utilization, so that's gonna be a more effective unit of asset to be able to deploy across our network. Then finally, the engines on these aircraft, again, are a step change. It's a two-engine aircraft compared to a four-engine aircraft on the A380, so it's going to be lowering our costs, lowering our fuel burn, and really as well, significantly step changing our emission footprint. Coupled with what a part that we achieved with Project Fysh was being able to access 500 million liters of SAF is significant, and it demonstrates that we are well on our pathway to hit our FY 2030 targets and also from a jurisdiction which has got incredibly good pricing relative to other parts of the world.
That was a superb answer. The only thing I would add to what Vanessa has said is that we have said that the A380s are not going to be replaced till financial year 2032. That's a long time away, and what we have managed to negotiate is early access. Not only are we taking 24 firm aircraft, but we have options and purchase rights with set pricing and set dates that gives us flexibility on our side to be able to replace those aircraft when we want to. Vanessa's point is the most valid one when it comes to the A380. When we originally bought the A380, they just had the range essentially to get to L.A. They just had the range to stop in Singapore to get to London. We had a hub strategy of actually dispersing traffic.
Huge amount of connecting traffic from L.A. went on to the rest of the United States. With the aircraft we're now ordering, we're gonna have more direct flights into the United States, so the need for those big aircraft is a lot less in the future. You're absolutely right that our intent is not to have the A350-1000s with the rear center tank. They're going to have they're going to be they're, they're going to be operating on shorter sectors than the ultra-long range, and they're probably gonna have a different configuration to make the advantage of that. Having an extra 12 A350s as a minimum onto on top of the 12 we've already ordered, gives you a critical fleet and size that gives you economies of scale.
'Cause apart from that, they're the, the same aircraft, and that's going to be a big advantage for us as well going forward. I think you could see how many dimensions the team have thought about when they made this fleet order. I think this is. I, I, I've been CEO for 15 years. I don't. This is always the panacea that we're after with huge flexibility, availability of slots, availability of aircraft, and the aircraft have the range to overcome the tyranny of distance that was always a problem for us. This is. These, these fleet orders are game changer for Qantas, and, and I think. I'm not sure the market has fully got that, but over the next few years, it will. Next question.
Your next question comes from Andre Fromyhr with UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, or afternoon, as it was. Just if you sort of sum up all the outlook commentary that you've provided and based on what you've seen in FY 2024 to date, how well are you tracking against the FY 2024 targets that were updated in February, and that they've been sort of published again in the presentation today? I note that you specifically called out Loyalty as being on track, but, you know, how are the other ones tracking?
Well, we, we remain really committed to those targets. Qantas Domestic has achieved that target this year, and Jetstar in the second half of this year that we've just closed, has achieved a record result for Jetstar. As Olivia mentioned, the Qantas Loyalty business is achieving the bottom part of that range 6 months earlier. We're really excited that the business is performing the way it is, and the outlook that we've got demonstrates the confidence that we have heading into FY 2024, that demand remains really strong. Also the international business, as it continues to restore capacity, is seeing ongoing demand and growth as well.
Next question.
Your next question comes from Nathan Guedes with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for the call. Can you just talk about what's driven the softer seat loads we've seen in the second half, both across Qantas Domestic and Qantas International? Just noting that they've slipped below the 19 level. Then also, should we, and can we assume that some of those loads start to bounce back into 2024? Thanks.
Yeah. I'll get Andrew David to do this one.
Let me start with the end of the question. Will they bounce back? Yes. Let me just go to Qantas International first. Yes, you did see lower load factors in that second half, fourth quarter, and that simply was we typically need a 12-month window to sell into for international routes. We launched Hong Kong and Japan in response to those markets opening up quite quickly. We didn't have the lead time that we would normally have, and we're seeing in the FY 2024 numbers that those load factors are returning to historical norms. Then on the domestic markets, largely explained that, what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2023 where loads were lower, and there are two reasons for that.
One, we've continued to expand our regional footprint, regional flying will have a lower load factor than your mainline 737 flying. That, particularly in the west, we've been growing the flying there. The second factor is the one Markus referred to. What we are seeing is revenue demand well ahead. We are seeing overall volume traffic demand ahead of what we forecast. That growth is in government, mining, construction. What we've equally seen is that in professional services and the finance sector, hasn't come back as quickly. What we've done is adjusted our capacity on particular sectors like Sydney, Melbourne, we've moved them into flying like Sydney, Cairns. We've increased flying into Darwin. We've put more flying Melbourne, Singapore. We've up gauged from 737 to A330 on Denpasar. What we've seen as a result, if we looked at our July numbers, we have seen load factors bounce back.
Good answer, Andrew. Next question?
Your next question comes from Matthew Ryan with Barrenjoey.
Hey, Matt.
Please go ahead.
Hey, Matt.
Oh, oh, good day, Alan. Hi, hi, everyone. I just had a question on the unearned revenue balance, that you've shown, and whether you think we're in a normal booking curve now? Maybe if you could just also comment on whether you think there's any permanent changes to, to sort of booking windows and, and what that might mean for your business.
We have definitely seen our booking curves now for some time return to the typical profile that we had before COVID, and for international, that's around a 4-5 month forward booking window, and for domestic, across both Jetstar and Qantas, that's around a 4-6 week booking curve. We've actually been there for some time. I wouldn't expect that there is gonna be any changes in those going forward. In terms of our revenue received in advance, we are still carrying approximately AUD 400 million in COVID-related credits that relate predominantly to Australian-based credit. We're very much focused on making sure that we burn those credits between now and the end of the year.
We're doing a significant effort to drive that, including we are emailing customers frequently, we are providing incentives for those credits to be burnt, we are offering customers the ability to refund if, if they want a refund rather than use their credits. We're making it easier for them to find their credits online, and also we're providing dedicated concierge services to really support customers through that process. When we actually look forward in terms of the revenue received in advance, we think that there will be some normalization given that that credit balance will come down as customers use that.
Looking forward, we're gonna continue to grow, and the one thing that I think that you, you, you've got to be putting into your model going forward, is that once that we get over this year and Project Sunrise comes in, and the new flying and the new growth that comes from all the new aircraft that are coming, our working capital will continue to grow, and Sunrise is all growth. Therefore, there's not going to be a normalization of working capital because it's gonna continue to grow as, as we grow going forward.
Next question.
Your next in comes from Justin Barratt with CLSA.
Hello, Justin.
Please go ahead.
Hi, Alan. Hi, Vanessa. Hi, team. Congrats on the, the great result. I just wanted to ask, I guess, keen for you to talk a little bit more to the, to the strength in your balance sheet, where it sits right now. And, and within that, and thinking about, I guess you've used up a fair few of your, your carried forward, tax losses in the year. How, how should we think about the potential reinstatement of the dividend into FY 2024 or 2025 or 2026?
I'll start with the last question first. We are, are forecasting that the Group is gonna return to a tax-paying position in quarter four this year. Heading into FY 2025, that'll be the year that we are in a position if the Board decides to provide a, a, a return to cash dividends that will be in a, a franking position at that point in time. On the, the balance sheet strength and, and being in the strongest position that we've been in our history, I think that there are a number of, of points that I would make in terms of what is that strength. I think first and foremost, our liquidity is incredibly strong. We've got approximately AUD 10 billion of liquidity on the balance sheet at the moment. That's in cash and also, undrawn facilities.
Also, and more importantly, our unencumbered asset pool has returned to a higher level than it was pre-COVID. It's now over AUD 5 billion. That has been a very deliberate strategy that we have had coming through COVID so that we have a higher mix of narrow body aircraft as a part of that unencumbered asset base, because we know, and the learning that we had through COVID was that those aircraft, they hold their value longer and, and at a higher level, and that is what lenders prefer when you need to secure funding if, if we were to be in a situation again where we needed to do that. The second thing that we focused on is our debt and our debt maturity profile. We have been pre-paying debt to bring down our debt levels.
Also, we have been making strategic decisions to repay our most expensive debt. Again, that has been focused on our leases, so we have bought back 7 leases across the Group. We have now over 90 or around 90% of our fleet is now fully owned. Again, that's another incredible part of the strength of our balance sheet, that we are in that position, and that we've repaid what are very, very expensive forms of financing for aircraft. If we look at our financial framework and our net debt, we are in a very strong position. We are below our net debt, now AUD 800 million below the net debt.
That actually gives us, as we look forward, a lot of confidence that as we start to renew our fleet, that that position is starting from a very strong position. That net debt position is also going to increase over time as we invest in our business and as our earnings continue to grow. Then finally, what, what I would like to call out has been a fantastic focus that our treasury team has had, which is on our debt profile.
We have also been able to extend that debt profile and also lower the maturity of debt that we have in any one year, with a deliberate focus on absolutely minimizing that debt maturity profile during our Sunrise capital peak. Once again, this is bringing flexibility, it's bringing headroom, but it's also bringing resilience, as we manage over the coming years, and being able to confidently face any environment, demand environment, or external environment that we may face.
Thanks, Vanessa. Next question?
Your next question comes from Scott Ryall with Rimor Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Scott.
Hi, thank you very much. I was hoping to ask about the sustainable aviation fuel part of the Airbus Boeing deal. I apologize if you've answered my question already. I've come on late from a couple of other calls. Could you just, I have seen in the footnotes that you're getting AUD 80 million, which is from existing projects, the rest will come from investment in new projects. Is this something that effectively Airbus and Boeing are helping you to source this or helping you, I guess, be dealt into some of these new projects? Then could you just give us a bit of an update on how you're seeing the development in Australia, recognizing you said somewhere in one of the literature that you're frustrated about developments, but, you know, in terms of when you think you will see a facilitating regulatory environment in, in Australia, please?
Yeah. Can I say, great question, and it hasn't been asked. Andrew Parker has been chipping at the bit-
Yes.
to, to try and answer a question, and now he's got the stage. Don't take any more than 20 minutes to answer this, Scott.
Okay. 2025. No, no, thank you for the question. Look, I think, blowing out our trumpet to a degree, this is a really significant day, not only for us, but we think for sustainability and aviation. As Alan and Vanessa articulated at the start, the efficiency that these new Project Fysh aircraft will deliver is significant in the aircraft that they're replacing, particularly as we look into A380s and twin engines replacing four-engined aircraft. I think, as you know from our Investor Day and certainly from our climate action plan, we are evangelical on sustainable aviation fuel. You can't invest in multi-decade aircraft, particularly those that are orientated in medium and long-haul operations, without a serious SAF plan attached to them.
The challenge in partnership with Boeing and Airbus, and the propulsion manufacturers, was partnering with us on SAF, and as Vanessa said, particularly in jurisdictions like the U.S., where we have price advantage, and we have a certainty of projects that are underway, projects that have already had deep due diligence, and capital attached to it. They were complex negotiations, and I would characterize it as, as you said, a combination of projects where we have secured a specific volumes, as well as projects that we will jointly partner with Airbus and Boeing.
For the first time, we have a pathway to our 2030 target of 10% SAF, where we're able to state that we will have up to 90% of those volumes captured by these new arrangements. I'm certainly not aware of any other airline that can make that statement, which is why I think it's such a significant day. Then I would just add quickly, so I don't hit the 20-minute mark, 2 other things. One is, these aircraft are oriented to medium and long haul and markets like the US. We have real faith that we understand those markets. You're seeing other jurisdictions in addition to California coming with additional incentives, so that market is showing real maturity in the long term in SAF development.
The IRA of the Biden administration is one of the most significant economic measures we've seen in the rollout and influence on SAF. It is a message to Australia that Alan touched on, which is whilst we're finally starting to see some momentum of SAF in Australia, we are doubling down in terms of our commitment and efforts to try to replicate in Australia what is happening in international markets. We had the first meeting two weeks ago of the Jet Zero Council. There was very significant ambition in the room along with government. I think you're beginning to see signs of not only government policy, but we've got our first two projects attached to our Climate Fund for SAF in Australia out the door now. That AUD 400 million vehicle that we're investing in Australia and internationally is beginning to roll out into investments in projects.
Thanks, Andrew. It was only 10 minutes, I think. Well done. I think we have time for. We might do one more question, and then we'll wrap up. Final question.
Your next question comes from Niraj Shah with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. I just wanted to ask about freight, actually. It's, it's moderated in 2023, but, you know, remains resilient, as you guys say, with you called out strong yields in the fourth quarter. I guess, how are you guys thinking about that through fiscal 2024, and I guess what's the new normal for that in your minds?
Do you want to go? Yeah, okay. That was a combination. Did you do a combination act? Go on, do it both together.
Come on, Andrew, get up here.
Go on, go on, Andrew.
Come on.
Go on, do a dual act.
It's always difficult to speak after Andrew Parker. I thought that was the end of it. Look, there's a couple of bits I'd say about freight. Then I'll hand over to Andrew. One is it's exceptional business and Domestic. We've got three strategic customers and a outstanding market position, which is really resilient for the future. If we look at our International business, it's still producing much higher intakes than we saw in FY 2019. The underlying reason for that and some of the work that Liv been doing is we still lag most markets in terms of our e-commerce penetration. We think there's-
... significant amounts of incremental growth for e-commerce. E-commerce plays beautifully into air freight because consumers more and more are wanting speeded delivery. When they purchase online, they want to get the products and services to them as quick as possible, which plays into air freight. Then I'd say, for the future, we've got the terminals of the future, which we think plays really well into automation, AI, machine learning, new terminals, new airports that we'll be able to deliver on. Huge opportunity, we think, still for the business and capacity to grow. I'll hand it over to Andrew now, if you reflect on the last quarter or the last year.
Look, look, just in summary, we expected yields to normalize as pax belly comes back on the international side, and that's exactly what they are doing, and they are doing that in line with our, our expectations. The three things that set our freight business apart is the strength in our domestic market, the e-commerce growth in Australia, and the investment we're making in fleet. Just like the passenger business, that comes with step change improvement in both capacity, RASK, well, not RASK performance in freight. We don't put passengers in our freighters. Our unit cost performance, and the overall revenue performance out of those aircraft.
Thanks, Andrew. I might wrap up. I, I wanted to finish by 'cause obviously this is my last investor briefing, but it's also Andrew David's and John Gissing's, and I just want to say a few words about Andrew and John. Andrew and John. Andrew's worked with us for 10 years now and done a number of different roles for us, and I think has been a superb executive. He's gotten a lot of experience in aviation around Australia. He worked for Air New Zealand, Tiger, Virgin, Jetstar, and then Qantas. He said he saved the best to last, and I think he was right on that.
He has done a superb job, particularly during the COVID period, where he agreed to extend to help Qantas get through that tough period, even though his family was based in New Zealand, so a lot of personal investment in it. Can I thank Andrew. You've done a superb job. You'll be missed. There's great new management coming in, which I think will be superb, I want to wish him all the best for his retirement in New Zealand. Thank you and on behalf of everybody in Qantas, the shareholders, the customers, and the employees, on the amazing job that you've done. Can I also give him a round of applause? Can I also thank John Gissing? John and myself have worked together for a long time.
We first met when we were setting up Jetstar, where, where I discovered that John couldn't tie a tie. He just had the knots kept open. He is the best safety professional, except to say, best safety professional in the country. He put in a safety management system, the Qantas Group Management System, that I think is the envy of the world. It's had amazing payback in terms of the safety outcomes for this company. John has done a phenomenal job in the regional operations, particularly in the purchase and takeover of Network Aviation, the growth of that business, which has been unbelievably good and helped us again, get through COVID. John has always been a steady hand. He's somebody that is very passionate about the business, very passionate about the company, very passionate about regional Australia.
I think they've erected 20 statues to him around the country for all the services that he's out there. Again, John's retiring when I retire on the 3rd of November, I think we wish John all the best for the future. He's, he's working as a consultant of the company for another year, I think that'll be great. We wish John all the best for his future down on his farm. He's a real country man at heart. Give him a big round of applause.
Can I wrap, can I wrap up by saying, I think you can hear by the quality of the answers and the quality of the people here, how, how much great hands, safe hands the company's in, not only with Vanessa, who I think has been an amazing CFO, done an amazing job all the way through the last few years during COVID, which is the toughest period to be a CFO of an airline, but also to the, to the new management coming in and the different roles. It's an exceptional team. The depth of the team is just amazing, and Qantas is in a real safe pair of hands. I congratulate everybody on their new roles and wish you all the best for the future, and I know Qantas is in safe hands.
Before we do a round of applause, I would like to finish by recognizing you, Alan. I think that we have been truly blessed as an organization, that you have been our leader through what has been probably some of the most challenging times that any global airline CEO has faced. Particularly, getting us through COVID has been absolutely an example of leadership at its best.
I know that I wouldn't be in the role I am. I've learned so much from you. I think that we are all a better organization. We are a stronger organization from having you as our leader. We are also a better organization because our culture over that period of time has just gone from night to, you know, night and day to, to where we are today. Thank you, for your service, and we all will miss you, but we also know that you are only a phone call away. Good luck, and, and, and take care, and, and we will all be-
Thank you.
behind you.