Good morning, and welcome to the FY 2026 annual results investor and analyst call. My name is Filip Kidon , Group Head of Investor Relations at Qantas. I would like to now hand over to Vanessa Hudson, our CEO, to take you through the results pack and introduce our group leadership team. Thanks, Vanessa.
Thank you, Fil, and good morning to everyone. Thanks for joining us here today on our group full year 2026 analyst briefing. I am joined by Rob Marcolina, our Chief Financial Officer, who will help me in presenting our results here in Sydney, but we are also joined today by the group leadership team as well. Today's briefing is going to be in audio format only, and Rob and I will take you through several of the key slides from the materials that we lodged earlier today. Cam Wallace, who is the CEO of Qantas International, will take you through a separate update on Qantas International. We are looking forward to opening up to questions. We will start on slide four, if you can turn to that.
This has been another year of great progress across all of our metrics while responding to what has been a materially higher fuel cost environment in Q4. In the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, we came through it with a strong result, which is what allows us to continue to invest in our fleet and deliver more for our customers, people, and for shareholders. The key takeaway from FY 2026 is that our strategy continues to work. We delivered our highest customer satisfaction in a decade, world-leading operational performance, and demonstrated the strength of our integrated portfolio and dual brand strategy in changing market conditions. In summary, underlying profit before tax for the full year was AUD 2.064 billion, down AUD 330 million on last year, but that includes AUD 420 million of net impact from the Middle East in Q4.
Underlying earnings per share were AUD 0.96, down 13% on last year. Cash flow was strong at AUD 3.9 billion. We are also delighted today to announce that the board has approved a final dividend of AUD 300 million. This is in addition to the AUD 300 million interim base dividend that was announced in February. The AUD 150 million on-market share buyback announced in the first half has been paused and will not proceed, and this does reflect our ongoing commitment to prioritize investment in the business while maintaining a sustainable base dividend. This year was defined by two very different operating environments. The first half and through to the end of February, Qantas and Jetstar were both performing strongly, with demand growing across all customer segments on both domestic and international networks.
The final four months of the year saw the impact of the Middle East flow through to higher fuel prices for the industry and impacted local business and consumer confidence. Prior to the Middle East, the group was on track to deliver earnings growth for the year. The four key factors that supported this and continues to support this, first was continued strong demand for travel across domestic and international markets, particularly from leisure and premium travelers. Second, the benefits of new fleet. New aircraft continue to improve our customer experience and our experience for our people and support stronger financial returns through lower operating costs and greater flexibility and network growth. Third, disciplined cost focus, driving transformation through both cost and revenue initiatives to offset CPI. Finally, and probably most importantly, the benefit of our integrated portfolio.
The diversity of the group allowed us to respond to evolving market conditions with our dual brand strategy and flexible fleet, allowing us to redeploy assets to match capacity with demand. Qantas Loyalty continued to grow strongly and also did Freight, which provided a valuable diversifier in the year. The renewal of the Qantas Group fleet is continuing. Jetstar has now almost 50% of narrow-body capacity in the new fleet. The renewal of the Qantas Domestic fleet is also well underway. Qantas International has started its fleet transition, and our first Project Sunrise, A350-1000ULR, will arrive in April, and four new 787-900s are on the horizon. Over this year, we invested AUD 4 billion across the group, and 29 aircraft joined the fleet. More than half were new aircraft, including six A321XLRs for Qantas, five A220s for QantasLink, five A321LRs, and one A320neo for Jetstar.
This investment is a key driver of future earnings through improved fuel efficiency, lower maintenance cost, higher customer satisfaction, and additional network opportunities. Jetstar's new fleet has now reached scale, and it is delivering benefits. This gives us the confidence in the benefits that will flow once the Qantas fleet renewal reaches scale. As part of that renewal this morning, we announced that the A380 will start to retire from mid-2028. I want to recognize the importance that the A380 aircraft has played and continues to play for our people and our customers. I will pass to Cam in a minute to speak more about this part of the Qantas International update. If we turn to slide six. Starting with our people, none of this would have been possible without the dedication and the professionalism of all of our team members across the group.
Our people have played a critical role in delivering continued improvement in operational performance and customer satisfaction. Employee engagement increased again during the year. We invested over AUD 100 million in new training facilities this year, including A350, A220, and A320 flight simulators, and a new state-of-the-art emergency training center in Sydney and Perth, where more than 10,000 Qantas and Jetstar pilots and cabin crew will be trained every year. Under our employee share program, eligible employees will receive another AUD 1,000 in Qantas shares later this year. We always will remain focused on customers, and it is very pleasing to see that this has been reflected in our operational and reputation scores. Customer satisfaction reached its highest level in a decade. Net promoter score lifted by seven points for Qantas Domestic and also five points for Qantas International.
Jetstar Domestic NPS remained stable, and Jetstar International NPS increased six points compared to the prior year. Operational performance continued to improve, including Qantas achieving 85% on-time departures in June, making it the best-performing major global airline for that month. Our customers have more to look forward to over the next 12 months, with up to 31 new aircraft deliveries, including our first Project Sunrise aircraft, significant cabin refresh programs on our Qantas A330s and Jetstar 787s, opening of the Qantas Sydney International Business Class Lounge and rollout of Wi-Fi across the international fleet, and progressive rollout and expanded Qantas Frequent Flyer benefits, including Jetstar upgrades, status credit rollover, and enhanced reward seat access. Finally, on sustainability, we remain focused on our long-term targets and have made further progress this year.
In FY 2026, our SAF procurement increased to 1.1% of total fuel, and we have also committed AUD 30 million towards carbon removal projects, working with our partners to target native species planting. Today, we are also releasing our next sustainability report, which for the first time encompasses climate reporting, providing more detail on climate impact analysis and transition plan. Excuse me. I'd like to pause on slide seven to briefly reflect on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The group continues to actively manage the impact of higher fuel prices. In response, we took decisive actions, both adjusting fares and capacity. We also redeployed aircraft across our network to support customers and captured demand to Europe as Middle Eastern hubs effectively closed. These actions, along with other mitigations, limited the net impact on earnings to AUD 420 million for the period.
Heading into FY 2027, we have also increased our liquidity to secure much of our funding tasks for the coming year. Shocks like this are not new to aviation, and it's why we prioritize our balance sheet strength. The group will continue to monitor developments and to adapt to conditions as needed. Turning to slide 17. The strength of today's result reflects the deeply integrated value across the group. I'll now provide an overview of business performance, and the CEOs of each segment will also give their perspective during the Q&A. Group Domestic delivered a strong EBIT result of AUD 1.44 billion, with an EBIT margin of 13%. Overall, domestic brand demand, excuse me, remained resilient, with strong leisure travel across both Qantas and Jetstar as customers continued to prioritize travel spending.
Resource sector travel was supported by ongoing investment in Western Australia, despite some impact to demand from mine closures in Queensland. SMA performance remained solid, underpinned by the need for face-to-face engagement. Larger corporates and government customers heightened their focus on cost management amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Qantas Domestic delivered a strong result prior to the Middle East conflict, with the last quarter impacted by higher fuel price and impact on corporate demand. As fuel prices rose during the final four months of the year, Qantas Domestic acted quickly through a combination of pricing, capacity, and network adjustments, helping to drive a 5% increase in unit revenue. Jetstar Domestic delivered another outstanding performance, with revenue growing by 11% on 4% capacity. Demand remained particularly resilient in the fourth quarter as value-conscious customers continued to seek affordable travel options closer to home. Group International delivered capacity growth across the year.
Pre-conflict international demand was strong and broad-based, supported by new Jetstar fleet deliveries, the return of the final A380, and ongoing Premium Economy cabin demand. As conflict began, both Qantas and Jetstar responded quickly to the circumstances. Qantas optimized the network, redeployed capacity from domestic to international to capture displaced demand to Europe, while managing capacity in response to high fuel prices. Combined seat factors on Qantas London, Paris, and Rome connections grew to over 90% during the period. This enabled Qantas International to deliver a AUD 371 million EBIT, with revenue growing by 8% on 7% capacity for the year. Similar to Qantas, Jetstar made fare and capacity adjustments to optimize earnings and also attract displaced demand as other airlines reduced capacity to leisure markets. As a result, Jetstar Australia International business performed strongly for the year, with an EBIT of AUD 279 million and an operating margin of 11%.
Both Qantas and Jetstar continue to see strong demand internationally. Now to Qantas Loyalty. Loyalty continues to demonstrate the value of resilience of the group's integrated portfolio. It delivered 12% EBIT growth to AUD 625 million, while continuing to expand engagement across retail, financial services, and SMEs, with one in four Australian SMEs within the Qantas Business Rewards membership base.
The program delivered record reward seat booking, increased member engagement, and continued growth in both points earned and points redeemed, both increasing at 9%. Now I will hand to Rob.
Thanks, Vanessa. We will now turn to slide 10 for a more detailed look at our financial metrics. Underlying profit before tax for the full year was AUD 2.064 billion, down AUD 330 million versus FY 2025, and this included the net AUD 420 million impact from the Middle East conflict. Statutory profit after tax was AUD 1.289 billion, down AUD 360 million versus FY 2025. Statutory profit included the impact of Jetstar Asia closure cost and legal provisions and related costs relating to Qantas' class action settlement. Underlying earnings per share was AUD 0.96, and the group's operating margin was 9.2%. For the full year, operating cash flow was strong at AUD 3.9 billion. Net debt ended the year at AUD 6.2 billion, at the middle of our FY 2026 target net debt range of AUD 5.5 billion-AUD 6.9 billion, in line with our guidance provided in April.
Net capital expenditure was AUD 4 billion, again in line with guidance provided in April. There were AUD 700 million of dividends returned to shareholders. Our total unit revenue, or TRASK, increased by 3.6%, and total unit cost ex fuel, or TCASK, increased by 4.1%. This was driven by several factors, which I'll explain as part of the group profit bridge. Moving to slide 11, the group profit bridge. On this slide, I'll walk through the key drivers in our underlying profit from FY 2025 to FY 2026. For the full year, group capacity increased 3.4%, with new fleet deliveries and the return of the final A380 contributing AUD 143 million in earnings. The increase in fuel costs in FY 2026 was AUD 492 million, which included AUD 26 million of additional gross carbon costs and was predominantly as a result of the Middle East conflict.
Group RASK grew by 5%, with Group Domestic at 4% and Group International at 5%. In the second half, RASK grew by 5% and 7% respectively, at or better than guidance we provided in April 2026. Our transformation program for FY 2026 was above prior guidance, delivering AUD 455 million for the full year, more than offsetting CPI with a mixture of cost and revenue initiatives. For FY 2026, depreciation amortization increased AUD 236 million, reflecting the acceleration of our investment in fleet. The ramp-up in fleet renewal saw the business incur fleet-related EIS entry into service costs, while our net increase in industry costs was AUD 95 million. Turning to Slide 26. Our long-standing financial framework is core to our strategy. It's designed to structurally maintain financial strength, including low leverage, strong liquidity, and an investment-grade credit rating.
It also guides capital allocation, including opportunities for capital recycling to maximize group value through the cycle. As Vanessa Hudson mentioned earlier, our balance sheet strength has allowed us to navigate the current conditions, maintaining investment in fleet and base dividends for shareholders. Capital expenditure, as I mentioned, for FY 2026 was AUD 4 billion, in line with guidance provided in April. We are also today providing an update guidance for FY 2027 for CapEx, which is now expected to be AUD 4.3 billion-AUD 4.6 billion. On shareholder distributions, we are committed to a base dividend that is sustainable through the cycle. Again, as Vanessa Hudson mentioned, we are delighted to share that the board has approved a final FY 2026 shareholder distribution, a fully franked base dividend of AUD 300 million or AUD 0.198 per share. This takes the total FY 2026 base dividend to AUD 600 million, AUD 0.396 per share, fully franked.
As evidenced by the decision to divest our stake in Jetstar Japan, we remain focused on ensuring optimal capital allocation across the group. I'll now hand back to Vanessa.
Thanks, Rob. We are on slide 29, the outlook for the first half of FY 2027. Travel intentions remain resilient, and customers continue to prioritize travel spending. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to influence the economic environment through higher jet fuel prices and industry capacity settings. Internationally, demand for both brands remains strong. Domestically, we see trends stabilizing and consistent with what we saw in quarter four of 2026. Going forward, we will be moving to TRASK. This is total revenue over ASK guidance for our airline segments, which includes ancillary revenue streams, and we hope will simplify guidance for the market. We expect group total unit revenue, or TRASK, to increase for both the group domestic and group international businesses. Also equally in the range of 8%-10% over the same period.
Group TRASK guidance is inclusive of the impact of capacity from tables provided on slide 30. Given the ongoing impact of the Middle East, TRASK guidance is aligned with the outlook provided on fuel. Fuel cost for the first half 2027 is approximately AUD 3.6 billion, referencing a market jet fuel price of AUD 197 a barrel. The group remains highly hedged in Brent at 85% for the first half and maintains significant levels of participation should fuel price revert lower. For the year, Qantas Loyalty underlying EBIT is expected to grow between 5%-7% for the full year of 2027 and will remain on track to our target of AUD 800 million to AUD 1 billion for FY 2030 in underlying EBIT. Our outlook slides provide further detail on specific line items, including fuel, depreciation, and transformation on slide 29.
We also have our latest capacity guidance on slide 30 for investor materials. I will now pass to Cam to provide a short update on Qantas International and its fleet strategy.
Thank you, Vanessa. Thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Today, I want to take you through an update on Qantas International, why we think this is an inflection point for the business and for our future financial performance. Qantas International is going through an important fleet transformation. We started this in 2017 with our first 787, launching ultra-long-haul routes like Perth to London, Perth to Rome, and Perth to Paris, as well as Auckland to New York. The 787s deliver the highest customer satisfaction and the highest margin on our international network. What you will hear today is the next phase of the fleet strategy and our pathway for Qantas International to reach 10% EBIT margin by financial year 2031. I will take you through a small number of the select slides in the Qantas International investor presentation. If we move to slide five, let us talk about the fleet.
Our future fleet is critical to delivering a sustainable uplift in both quantity and, importantly, quality of earnings. This is driven by three key factors. Firstly, flexibility. The new fleet means more network options, diversifying our revenue and covering more routes direct, the way our customers want to fly. Two, premiumization. Part of the fleet and network strategy is making sure we are driving growth in the cabins in which our customers want to travel. That means the new fleet has higher premium cabin density, growing the cabin mix of premium from 19% of our flying today to just under 30% by the financial year 2031. And three, cost and operational efficiency. This is what we get from new generation technology, simplification of our fleet, and the opportunities for future transformational, which is enabled by the fleet.
Increasingly, our narrow body fleet of A220s and A321XLRs will play a role flying into the Tasman, the Pacific, and Asia, and ensuring that capacity is matched to demand whilst also optimizing frequencies. The A220 already flies between Brisbane and Wellington, and the A321XLR will fly early 2027 from Brisbane to Manila. The new wide-body fleet includes Project Sunrise A350 aircraft and the A350 standard variant, which will fly to some of our longest sectors in Europe and the U.S.A. The 787-10s will join the 787 fleet and fly slightly closer to home. By financial year 2031, 70% of our capacity will be on next generation aircraft. All of these aircraft will deliver a step up in customer experience compared to what you see and what you experience today. We will also bring lie-flat to Qantas single-aisle aircraft for the first time with a new business suite for our A321XLR fleet.
The new wide-bodied aircraft will start arriving, first with Project Sunrise from April 2027 and the next 787 in financial year 2028. We will also start to see the progressive retirement of our 737s and A330s. As Vanessa Hudson mentioned, today we announced our A380s will start to exit from the mid-2028. Talking about the A380, let's turn to slide eight. The Airbus A380 is our flagship. It is much loved by customers and our people, and it has played a critical role in our fleet ever since the first delivery way back in 2008. Over the last six months, it has allowed us to optimize the network and fleet to capture demand arising from the Middle East conflict. Now, I know some of you may ask, given how loved this aircraft is, why retire it, and why retire it now? There are three key reasons why.
One, we are constantly looking for ways to optimize how and where we deploy our capital. The A380 retirement unlocks approximately AUD 300 million of net cash flow benefit from FY 2028 to 2031, primarily through lower capitalized maintenance cost. This capital can be more efficiently deployed to new aircraft and deliver sustainable earnings uplift. That is a big deal for how we sequence this transition. Two, it is an aircraft which has been out of production since 2021. We already have supply chain challenges today, and we know there is likely to be supply constraints into the future. This creates operational complexity and thus higher operating and maintenance cost. And three, with the first Sunrise aircraft now on the horizon, this gives us greater confidence in the delivery schedule of our future fleet. As the A380 transitions to newer tech like the A350s, this will deliver value to Qantas International.
There are two stats that bring this to life. The A350 standard variant has a higher premium density at more than 40%, compared to 30% on the A380. On city pairs like Sydney to Dallas, switching to an A350 delivers an estimated 12% increase in contribution margin. Moving to slide nine, we have talked a lot about the A380s, but it is the A330s that actually make up more than half of our wide-body fleet. The Qantas A330s only have premium density of around 10%. It does not have a Premium Economy cabin, which we know our customers want, and the Economy cabin is bigger than it needs to be on some of our thinner international routes. The 330 flies a mix of international routes, and now we have got the chance to move on to two new aircraft types that will better match demand and optimize costs.
An example is Brisbane to L.A., which is a long-haul city pair. Switching from a 330 to a 787 lifted contribution margin on that market by 20 percentage points. Higher premium density is a big part of that, especially on longer routes where we know the demand is there. We also know customers prefer the 787. OTP lifted and NPS doubled on that city pair. Now, it is a different strategy on shorter city pairs like Perth to Singapore. Here, the challenge with the 330 is the high seat count. Put simply, we are flying more seats that we can fill at the right price. This route can soon be served with a narrow body like the XLR, which best matches capacity to demand whilst also retaining frequency. We expect to see a 10% increase in contribution margin.
Higher unit revenue plays a part, but also key to switching to a narrow body is next-generation technology. This turns up in lower fuel unit costs and lower unit depreciation relative to the 330. If I move to slide 10, a slide I suspect you will be keen to see. The slide outlines our indicative earnings trajectory from FY 2027 to 2031. Qantas International EBIT margin is expected to go from 4% in FY 2026 to 10% by FY 2031. The earnings and margin trajectory is directly tied to the new fleet delivery, which unlocks premium cabin seat growth and delivers technology efficiencies. By FY 2031, Sunrise is expected to deliver the AUD 400 million in earnings uplift that we have mentioned in previous results.
Beyond FY 2031, we expect Qantas International earnings to grow and margins to reach between 10%- 12% as the fleet renewal continues. We know entry into service cost is necessary to unlock these benefits. That is expected and captured in the earnings trajectory shown here. In FY 2028/2029, the EIS cost is approximately AUD 150 million, but that will decline over time as the fleet reaches scale. While this slide is focused on the medium to long term, it is important to acknowledge that in the short term, Qantas International will be impacted by elevated fuel price, as mentioned in the outlook earlier. On to slide 11, integrated value. Group integrated value is the glue that underpins the success of the Qantas Group. The investment in Qantas International generates value across the group in three key ways. One, international feeds domestic.
Our international network proposition underpins the value we offer our domestic customers across the group. With Project Sunrise and the increasing direct markets, we believe we will further strengthen that proposition. International and loyalty reinforce each other. Members want to redeem points on Qantas International, and particularly on premium seats. We actively invest in the loyalty program by ensuring reward seats are available to our customers. That's the flywheel. It drives the attractiveness of Qantas Frequent Flyer and Qantas Business Rewards program, which in turn attracts quality coalition partners and drives value for loyalty. Finally, freight. The investment in our future fleet means more freight capacity and unlocks earnings growth. Put it all together, and while Qantas International segment was 15% of the group's FY 2026 underlying EBIT, it actually enabled 30% of that result.
It's also enabling around 40% of the group revenue received in advance, which is critical to our working capital. To bring it all together, if we could move to slide 12. Qantas International is undergoing its most important fleet renewal. The sustainable earnings uplift is based on three key things: flexibility, premiumization, efficiency. That's the thesis, and we're already seeing it playing out with our 787s. Project Sunrise is almost here and will deliver a AUD 400 million uplift in earnings and working capital by FY 2031, when that fleet reaches scale. This means Qantas International has a clear pathway to the 10% margin target by FY 2031 and to 10%-12% beyond that. That's before including the broader value delivered back to the group.
I'd like to close by thanking our people around the globe for everything they do, taking Australians to where they want to travel and bringing them home safely again. Thank you to all of our customers for their continued loyalty and support. I'm now going to hand back to Vanessa, who will head into the Q&A.
Thanks, Cam. We closed FY 2026, and we have entered FY 2027 from a position of strength. Customer satisfaction is at its highest level in a decade, and our domestic fleet renewal is well in progress. The first Sunrise aircraft arrives in April next year, and broader international fleet renewal will begin soon. Our integrated portfolio provides resilience to respond to market conditions as they evolve. As a management team, we remain focused on delivering to our customers, our people, and our shareholders, and I would like to close by saying thank you also to all of our staff for making the result possible that we delivered here today. We now will open up to Q&A, and moderator, I will pass over to you.
Thank you. Your first question comes from Anthony Moulder with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning, all. A lot of detail on the medium-term transformation for the group in this presentation, I appreciate. Can I just go back to domestic, and specifically around that TRASK guidance for domestic 5% growth that we saw in Q4 2026, but that is now expected to step up to that 8%-10% growth in the first half 2027. I guess I'm wanting to understand as to whether or not you're expecting the fare increases that you've already pushed through will give you that growth across Qantas and Jetstar, or are you needing further increases to cover that higher growth through first half 2027, please?
Yeah, great question, and I will pass to Steph and Markus in a minute to just give you a flavor of what we're seeing, but also what our intakes are showing us. But as you would appreciate in Q4 when the higher fuel price impacted, we'd actually sold quite a large amount of our revenue, and so therefore sold those on tickets that obviously weren't inclusive of fare increases. But across the business, we have taken active fare increases in terms of capacity, but also the fare increases across Jetstar and Qantas was not just in Q4, but actually many across the financial year.
I think as we look forward, our TRASK, we think, is a really important metric to move to because TRASK builds into not just fare increases and also obviously average fares, but it includes increase in seat factor, it includes ancillary revenue, which we're driving very hard, but it also includes charter revenue, which is increasingly becoming a greater proportion of our revenue. We think TRASK as a metric going forward is going to be much more meaningful to investors. Just on the point of what we are going to continue to do, we're going to continue to drive and do what we need to do to respond to the market. We are not saying that everything that can be done has been done because we're going to continue to drive.
Where we see demand, we are going to continue to push to maximize revenue and clearly, obviously, maximize earnings. The outlook that we have given you is the best indication that we see at the moment. I might pass to Steph because Jetstar is seeing incredibly strong demand.
Yeah. Thanks, Vanessa, and thanks, Anthony, for the question. I think we have a lot of confidence in the outlook from a leisure demand perspective, and I think there is a few proof points. Firstly, still in our research, we see that travel intention high and the prioritization of travel high. I think there genuinely has been a structural change in the desire for travel and experience in the last few years, and we are seeing that hold and in some ways strengthen. We are now late August, and so we have had two months of intakes, and for the financial year, we are seeing very strong intakes. Jetstar had a record week last week, in fact, but very strong intakes across both domestic and international.
What you see in this first half in particular is a really strong events calendar, AFL finals configured the way that we like, and very strong concerts, et cetera, this half. What I will say on just a managing yield perspective, we like to look at the way we manage prices always on. We have got sophisticated tools in our revenue management team, which means you do not just see blanket increases, you see multiple increases across different routes every week. We will continue to manage that in a dynamic way to make sure we are getting the yield we need to look to mitigate the fuel. As Vanessa said, I think from a TRASK perspective, for Jetstar, that is particularly important as we look to keep innovating on ancillary revenue. Our new priority carry-on bag is an example of that, which really changes the mix.
Seat factor is always a factor in TRASK as well, and we will keep driving high seat factors on Jetstar whilst maintaining the flexibility with capacity. I think we have got very confident view of that outlook from a leisure demand perspective, which continues to be resilient and strong, I would say.
Thanks, Steph. Markus?
Yeah, I can just echo what Vanessa and Steph said in terms of the outlook and the confidence we have in the outlook for the first half. As Steph mentioned, we are almost two months in, and what we are seeing is very much what Steph mentioned in terms of the strength of leisure demand or SME demand, and how the events calendar fall into place for us in the first half. Yes, we have a high level of confidence in the numbers.
Great. Thank you. Next question, please.
Next question is from Owen Birrell with RBC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, guys. Just two questions from me. Just the first one around the CapEx guidance. I noticed a step down from what you were guiding in February. I'm just wondering whether that's a deferral, or delay of deliveries, or just a shifting of payment terms, or is it associated with the A380 retirement? Just wanted to get to the bottom of the CapEx reduction. Then in terms of a second question, just referring to the Loyalty business, just wondering if you are starting to see, well, we're starting to see banks starting to reconfigure their loyalty linked credit cards. Just wondering if you can give us a sense on what you think about the impact into 2027, any measures you have to mitigate that?
Hi, Owen. I might take the first question just on the CapEx. The AUD 4.3 billion- AUD 4.6 billion is essentially there's four reasons. If you go back to February when we had the previous guidance, we were calling four Sunrise aircraft in FY 2027. We've now got three, so that's the first reason. We've also seen improvement in the foreign exchange. The Australian dollar's got better, which is obviously good for CapEx. With less flying, we've got less capitalized maintenance that we're scheduling in FY 2027. Then also just going back to the point around recycling of capital, we've called out the Jetstar Japan and expectations at the end of June, that those proceeds would also help with regards to the capital recycling. So they're probably the four main reasons with regards to CapEx guidance.
I might just make a couple of comments on Loyalty, then I'll pass to Andrew. The financial services approach to defining the customer value proposition on credit cards has been a focus of them, given the change in the interchange rate. We're really pleased that all of our banking partners we've reached in principle agreement across all of our banking partners who remain important to the Qantas Group for all of them. I think as you note, there are differences in the decisions that those banks have made, and that's okay in that regard. But I think that the one thing that I would say is that we continue to see incredibly strong demand with our customers for points, and also points on credit cards. And we are starting to see customers who are savvy, and who are focused on understanding how that market is changing.
We are seeing our customers change and move across different kind of card products. So this will remain an incredibly important part of the Loyalty program, but so are the other parts of our program, because the team have been diversifying that over time.
Yeah. Thanks very much, Vanessa, and thanks for the question, Owen. I think Vanessa's probably covered most of the points there, but I do think it's important to acknowledge upfront, this was something that we were very much prepared for, and we've been building these relationships over the last 30 years with our financial services partners. Going into these conversations, the conversations were essentially led through three overarching objectives. Number one was to ensure that we maintain that direct earn construct, of which members can earn points today. Number two, and really important, was to ensure that we preserve all of our financial services partnerships. Number three, it was about balance, and importantly balance for our members. I am extremely pleased to say that we have achieved all three of those.
The direct earn construct remains, all partnerships are preserved, but equally important or most important, I should say, is there has been a balanced outcome for our members overall. Clearly each issuer has decided its own response through fees, rates, rewards, and a combination of these. From a timings perspective, yes, we will see the greatest impact in the second half of 2027, and that is why we have got it between the five to seven. Most importantly, we remain committed to the 10% through to 2028, and importantly, the AUD 800 million- AUD 1 billion.
Next question, please.
Your next question is from Andre Fromyhr with UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on Cam's presentation on international, including the retirements of the A330s and A380s. I guess, you called out the capital benefits of no longer investing in the capitalized maintenance on those fleets. I am curious if there is any potential proceeds from retiring those. But then more broadly, what does that timeline of retirements mean for how international capacity growth will look over that medium term? By extension, how would you build the confidence with investors that the Sunrise EBIT estimate of AUD 400 million is truly incremental rather than replacing income from the existing services on those aircraft?
Well, a couple of things and then I will pass to Cam. I think first and foremost, we have been absolutely focused on making sure through the lens that we always apply, which is the financial framework, is that we are putting in place plans that not just kind of generate quality of earnings and improvement in earnings, but actually do that by minimizing the capital that we have got deployed across the business. That is absolutely what you can take in terms of the objective and the intention that sits behind the plan that we put today. We have not yet defined the end point of the final retirement of the A380s because we also, as we have said over time, want to maintain flexibility to operate through the next five years and making sure that we are responding appropriately to the competitive supply and also demand environment.
I think that remains really important and is something that we have committed to investors in the past and we will do that. We have obviously outlined Project Sunrise, and if I come back to the A380 was always going to be retiring in our plan. We have just now brought forward the perspective and some confirmation of the commencement of the retirement date. But we remain really confident that the AUD 400 million in uplift in Sunrise is contributing to this improvement in earnings performance over the next five years. But also you can see in that presentation that will continue to run through earnings growth beyond that as the run rate and as the new fleet come in over time. But Cam, any-
Yeah, I think you have covered a lot of that. But in terms of the A380, just expand on that a little bit. In terms of the capitalized maintenance savings, that is for things like engine overhauls, landing gear, and heavy block checks that we can actively avoid. Now, the key part of making the determination today around the start of the retirement was to give clarity to customers, but also importantly, our people, certainly our pilots, in terms of what aircraft they want to be trained on and whether we can generate some opportunities and some savings through that process, which we are confident we can. But at the back end of the program, we are giving ourselves some flexibility. So we will be managing that actively and looking at the market conditions, looking at the growth, and looking at the competitive activity.
We will still maintain our ASKs capacity, but importantly, through that transition, we will be having a material step up in the number of premium seats, not just business class, but Premium Economy, and on the new aircraft, we will have Premium Economy as well. What we are getting right as we retire the A380 is the right platform for us. Where we are based geographically and the markets we serve, which is more and more going to be non-stop direct point-to-point markets, but also the right premium density, and importantly for us in an environment like that, the right cost vehicle. We have got flexibility at the back end of the program, but we thought it was important to announce today.
Thank you. Next question, please.
Your next question comes from Matt Ryan with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I had a question about the fuel recapture and your guidance. I guess at a high level, I think you have actually talked about TRASK being aligned to the fuel outlook and you do not have any capacity growth to your guidance either. Just interested in your ability to push RASK any further. I think 9% is clearly a huge number and if you can get there that is very high on historical standards. Are you pitching that number to recapture the fuel because that is about the limit that you think you can get to because the consumer environment or what have you, or is there an ability to go any higher to actually provide growth ahead of the fuel?
Matt, I might take that. Just in terms of the recapture, obviously Vanessa Hudson talked earlier around the time period in the fourth quarter that we'd already pre-sold a number of the tickets, and with greater time it gives an opportunity to get more of that increased price and therefore be able to capture more of the price increase. As you saw in the fourth quarter, it was around 30%, so we would expect to be able to capture more of that. I think your point on the TRASK, again, going back to the components of TRASK, it obviously includes price, but as Steph and Markus Svensson have also said, it also includes load factors, which we're going to be pushing hard on, and also ancillary.
Whether it's through the baggage product, whether it's through Economy Plus that we've now got in a greater part of the Qantas Domestic network. So there are a lot of ways that we can help to recapture the price. Your point on elasticity is well-founded, though. We are very focused on that, very aware of it. I think what Steph said earlier in terms of the intakes indicate that there's very strong and continued demand from a leisure and a number of the other segments. And so we are very conscious of the elasticity, and we continue to monitor that on a weekly basis.
Next question, please.
Your next question comes from Jakob Cakarnis with Jarden Australia. Please go ahead.
Hi, Vanessa. Hi, Rob. Hi, Qantas team. Rob, if I could just pitch one to you, please. Slide 26 and 27. The message seemingly is that there's a CapEx reduction in 2027. The buybacks probably prudently been put to the side. You're telling us that gearing is going to be top end of the target range. I guess wrapping that all together with Cam's presentation, how do we think about the suitability of the capital framework moving forward? It's been a couple of years since you've been at that 10% ROIC level that that's set on. Can you just help us, firstly, are we seeing prudence today given the outlook? Presumably there's some flex in non-fleet CapEx. Then, yeah, just the viability of that capital framework as we move to fleet changes for international, please.
Yeah, no, thanks for the question, Jakob. I would say the financial framework is a bedrock of the way that we run the business. As you've indicated, the financial framework is conservative in nature because it assumes a 10% ROIC. So our confidence level in moving to the upper end of the net debt range, which we flagged in this presentation, why are we doing it? Well, we're doing it because we're investing in aircraft, and we continue to see the benefit from doing that in up to 31 aircraft. But why are we confident moving to the upper end of the net debt range is because it is a conservative range. It is based on the 10%, but I think also the liquidity that we've got in the business, over AUD 3 billion now, gives us continued confidence in the settings of the business.
Also we're a long way from the threshold with an investment grade rating. The other thing I'd say, though, is that we also made reference to the net debt range that in FY 2028, we're not giving any specifics, but it's our intention to come back towards the middle in FY 2028. So we're very confident that what Cam laid out and the fleet investments that we've also given you for FY 2028, which obviously will require an increase in CapEx. We feel quite comfortable with that given the conservative nature of how the financial framework is set up.
Great. Thanks, Rob. Next question, please.
Your next question comes from Lee Power with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Vanessa, Rob, and team. Just on costs ex-fuel, is it possible to give us an idea of how you see them tracking? I see you've got obviously transformation benefits, but just interesting to see how the different buckets are looking and then any comment. I think in the annual rate review there was some call out of flight attendant wages. So anything that's changed around that would be useful. Thanks.
Yeah, look, I think that broad comment on costs ex-fuel is that we have seen and we have provided in the investor presentation a bridge that kind of helps you step through on a gross basis of what are the drivers of cost. That is inclusive of wage growth. We have seen many industry costs grow ahead of CPI, including airports and particularly also security, and also government charges as well. That table that we've provided shows approximately a 4% growth in underlying cost excluding fuel. But as we've said in the past, our focus is on making sure that we continue to drive transformation across the group, both revenue and also cost, to offset the impact of CPI on our business, and that is inclusive of wage escalation as we move through new EBAs and as we close EBAs as well.
That's going to be our commitment going forward. Increasingly, that transformation is going to be unlocked through automation, digitization, use of AI, and we look forward to talking to you more about what those use cases are over time because we are seeing incredible value being unlocked across the business, not just in terms of productivity and driving efficiency, but unlocking better customer outcomes and also better outcomes that drive improved operational performance. We see that this is an incredibly important part of our forward view, and it's a commitment that, as you can see in our outlook statement, that we maintain. Next question, please.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Cameron McDonald with E&P. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Can I get a breakdown of what you are seeing in international in particular, and even into the fourth quarter of last year? You made some very quick comments around Europe, but the split between the European contribution, the capacity that went into that market to offset the Middle Eastern carriers, the fare increases, and then correspond that to what you are seeing in the U.S., noting that Flight Centre in particular yesterday actually called out that the U.S. was "booming." So interested in seeing what you are seeing in that space.
Yeah, I will make a few comments, and I will pass to Cam. We have seen in the fourth quarter really significant growth in demand to Europe, and we saw our RASK respond accordingly and also driven by a much improved seat factor. So the capacity, we maximized the capacity or the additional capacity that we could get into Europe, and that has been both in terms of redeploying aircraft across our network, but also driving utilization. So we believe we have positioned Qantas International as best we can for that. But Cam will give you a bit of an overview across all of the different markets because we have seen strong performance across other markets than just Europe as well.
Yeah, if I look to how we have leveraged the network, and it is not just the international network, it is actually the power of the group taking some equipment from domestic and redeploying it in international, and then moving our 787 fleet into parts of the network where we could extract value and minimize some of the cost impact. That has been really successful for the U.K., for Paris, for Rome. But also in the short term, the U.S.A., we actually developed some connecting traffic after the war started through the U.S.A., where there really was demand looking for ways and means to get to their final destination. And then importantly for us, actually Africa, which we serve with an A330 from Perth and an A380 from Sydney, is emerging as another connecting way to get to the U.K. and Europe.
In terms of the U.S.A., that is a market that we deployed the A380 on, so that was a 14% step-up in ASKs. That has rebounded, so we are about flat on our RASK at the moment. We are seeing strong both outbound demand from Australia to the U.S.A., as well as a strong response for in the U.S.A. for getting people to Australia. I would agree with the analysis from Flight Centre that that is a market that has rebounded, and we had the capacity available to absorb that demand. Very happy with the way U.S. has gone in the last six months.
Thanks, Cam. Next question, please.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Sam Seow with Citi. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Morning, Vanessa and team. Just a question on domestic RASKs. I guess we can see the divergence in seat factors across the brands. As we think about first half 2027, are we expecting that domestic RASK to be even across the two or more weighted to one versus the other? If refining margins do come down, should we be expecting RASKs to follow? Or how we should think about any margin or catch-up you might be targeting? Thanks.
Well, obviously, we haven't given a breakdown of the RASK. We've given you a TRASK for the domestic flying segments. Just to reiterate that Markus and Cam, in terms of what we're seeing in the intakes across the two business gives us the confidence that that outlook statement is on track, and I think that that's really important. In terms of just the broader question that you ask around normalization of fuel, I believe that some of our RASK performance will become structural. It needs to in some regard because we're seeing a certain amount of escalation in costs in other categories, industry cost, airport cost, government cost, and that is a cost that's borne by all operators. So we would not expect that RASK would normalize in line with fuel. That would be the same for the international businesses as well.
Steph or Markus, do you have anything else to add to that?
No.
Next question, please.
Your next question comes from Justin Barratt with CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, Vanessa. Hi, Rob and team. I think my question today is for Steph. From what I can see, again, a really strong revenue performance from Jetstar, but the really positive EBIT result, I think, comes equally from the benefits to your cost base. I am just wondering, Steph, if you could talk to the relative advantages that you believe that you have in your cost base, what the key drivers are of that. I mean, appreciate a lot of it may come from the fleet renewal program, but if there is anything else there that we should be aware of, I guess.
Yeah. Thanks, Justin, for the question. I think there is a few things that are worth probably pointing out. First and foremost, the biggest contributor is the fleet, and that is not just the efficiency of the fleet, but also the growth it has enabled for Jetstar. I think secondly, just to Vanessa's earlier narrative on transformation, absolutely for Jetstar, we are always going to be laser-focused on transformation, both cost and revenue, and we are seeing some really great outcomes there across the different parts of the business. I think the other thing for Jetstar that is really important is just operational stability because a good operation is the lowest cost operation, and we are really focused on cancellations and seeing good results there. The other thing I would say for Jetstar, it is worth noting we have made tough decisions.
We sold an airline and we closed an airline in this reporting result, and they will have positive outcomes given their financial performance for Jetstar's result going forward. I think there is lots of momentum to continue that trajectory.
Thanks, Steph. Next question, please.
Your next question comes from Ian Myles with Macquarie Research. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks, guys. Just following up on that, you've got the fleet renewals or new planes coming in. It's curious to see Jetstar's the outperformer, yet it doesn't actually have any more planes arriving post the four this year. Just what's your thought process on that? The follow-up to that is, what's the latent capacity in the fleet given high fuel prices you're optimizing? If things go back, how much can you surge the fleet without actually needing more planes?
So just the question on the mix of allocation of capital to the Jetstar refleet versus Qantas Domestic. Clearly, the decisions that we have made to prioritize the capital into commencing and accelerating the Jetstar fleet to almost 50% new fleet has been a fundamental part of our strategy to make sure that Jetstar is fighting fit, but also enabling Jetstar to grow and expand into new markets. The one thing that I think is important to recognize is that Jetstar were not changing the fleet type. It was remaining with just the next fleet variant of the A320 and the A321. Jetstar has been able to demonstrate without the entry into service costs, the fast ramp-up and improvement of earnings that have come from that. That's both in terms of driving transformation, fuel efficiency, but most important, utilization and opening new markets.
Again, not just driving improvement in profit, but actually bringing lower fares and affordable fares to customers. We're going to continue to be focused on that. But we also have to make sure that we get the balance right across the renewal of the group. Commencing the narrow body replacement for the Qantas fleet is important, so a large amount of allocated capital in the next 12 months will be to get the Qantas XLR and A220 scale. That's really, really important for Qantas Domestic because as Qantas is moving from a 737 fleet to the Airbus fleet, we need to do that as quickly as possible. This is always through the lens of the financial framework, and that is, again, the commitment that we have to the market is that we get that balance right.
We focus on making sure that the fleet renewal is balanced across the different brands, but also driving towards that earnings uplift and that scale really quickly. Now, I've forgotten a part of the question.
No, I'll answer the second part of the question. I think your words, Ian, were sort of surge in ASKs. I think what I wanted to just point out here again is just to reiterate the benefits of owning our own fleet. Owning 85% of our fleet allows us, and Cam mentioned it earlier, but allows us the flexibility to not be beholden to lease rates and lease returns. While we do have a retirement plan with the aircraft, I think the flexibility we have to steer into that retirement plan is an advantage that we have versus many other airlines.
Yeah. Thank you. Next question, please.
Your next question comes from Joseph Michael with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, Vanessa. Hi, team. Thanks for taking my question. I just had a question on Project Fysh, and more specifically, the returns. I guess the A330 fleet renewal case studies you've given us today show a pretty meaningful contribution margin improvement. My question is, how should we think about Project Fysh returns compared to the broader group and Project Sunrise? Thank you.
Well, I might just take it at the group level, and obviously each of the individual fleet programs that we put in place have a return that's above the cost of capital. I think more holistically, and Cam mentioned this before, is we operate the group as an integrated value. With the investment that we're seeing in Qantas International, whether it's Sunrise, whether it's Project Fysh, is being monetized not just directly in Qantas International, but also across Qantas Domestic and Qantas Loyalty. We have a return on investment for this financial year of 32%. That is coming down as the invested capital increases. But as we've said before, we expect to normalize, if you like, at a number that's higher than pre-COVID levels. We're really happy with the returns, and we just want to get those aircraft here as soon as we can.
Mm. Thanks, Rob. Next question.
Your next question comes from Nathan Gee with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi. Hey, team, thanks for the call. Maybe just a question on corporate demand. Can I dig just a little bit more into that weakness that you're seeing in corporate and government, and any signs of improvement in the forward book? Thanks.
Well, thank you for the question. What we did see in quarter four, and probably not unexpected, the trickle-down effect of the higher energy prices, moves in interest rates, has actually impacted business confidence. What we saw in quarter four, that there was some non-corporate and also government just actually reduce some travel demand or travel spend in reaction to that. But we have not seen that deteriorate. In actual fact, we've seen that stabilize. That is actually what we are planning on for at least the first half, and that has been incorporated into the capacity settings that we've provided guidance on, because that's a really important part of the levers that we have to manage in an environment where fuel is higher in the first half, but also based on the demand outlook.
I think really importantly, to come back to that's a subset of the corporate market. It shouldn't be taken as an indicator of the whole market. We are seeing really strong ongoing demand in the corporate market and the mining market in Western Australia, and that is continuing to grow. We are also seeing the SME market continuing to remain really resilient. When we talk to SMEs, what we hear from them is how important face-to-face interactions are with suppliers or customers or their people. Therefore, we continue to be really optimistic around that part of the business purpose travel market. Next question.
Your next question comes from Niraj Shah with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi all. Thanks for taking my question. One for Steph perhaps. What percentage of Jetstar revenues would be sort of ancillary at this point in time? What could or should that get to now that we've kind of rolled into a TRASK measure? I'm just trying to get a sense of what that should contribute over time.
Yeah. Steph?
Thanks for the question. We haven't given that breakup before, but what I will say is over time in our planning, we will see ancillary proportion become a greater component of the Jetstar revenue. It's already over AUD 1 billion of our revenue, we've said before. But what we're trying to do to make sure our lead in fare stays as low as it can in an environment where we've got those escalating costs is to unbundle as much as possible. That means we can keep that lead in fare low for the majority of customers, but we have the opportunity to charge for anything extra. Obviously we've launched a product in the last few weeks that's got a bit of attention around baggage, but we've got many more to come, to be honest. So we've got a whole pipeline of ancillary initiatives.
It's hard to compare across airlines, I would just warn, because many airlines when they report results include frequent flyer in their ancillary revenue. That often leads to more inflated numbers than maybe what I'm saying, but I think for Jetstar it will be increasing part of the mix and I know for Qantas as well.
Thank you, Steph. Just calling whether there's any more questions. I'm seeing that there might not be any on hold, but just wait a minute, moderator, if there's any questions that come in.
There are no further questions at this time.
Okay, fantastic. Well, thank you so much for your time this morning. We are really looking forward to coming out and having more conversations with you all next week. Thanks again and I'll catch up next week.