Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to RWC third quarter trading update call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Heath Sharp. Please go ahead.
Hello, everyone, and welcome to RWC's trading update for the nine months ended March 31st, 2022. I'm Heath Sharp, Group CEO, and with me today is Andrew Johnson, Group CFO. In the materials we have released this morning, we have endeavored to provide the same level of information that we provided at the first quarter. This includes sales, EBITDA and EBIT at a group and regional level. As a reminder, we are now reporting in U.S. dollars. All the figures we reference will be in U.S. dollars unless we state otherwise. Starting on slide three and looking at group performance for the nine months ending March 31st, we recorded a 14% increase in net sales to $845 million. The results included a contribution from EZ-FLO from mid-November through to March 31st.
Excluding EZ-FLO, we recorded a 5% increase in sales for the nine months. We continued to achieve price increases to offset cost inflation. Over the nine-month period, we averaged 8.7% price increase across the group. We have further price increases underway for the fourth quarter and will be close to achieving double-digit price increases for the full year. This will mean we have achieved close to $100 million in price increases for FY 2022. You will recall that last year we benefited from an increase in sales as a result of the freeze in Texas and surrounding states. We estimate that freeze event contributed $31 million in sales in the third quarter of FY 2021. Adjusting for that U.S. freeze last year, sales excluding EZ-FLO were 9% higher compared with the prior nine-month period.
Adjusted EBITDA was 9% lower at $191.4 million. As we've expressed before, we have achieved price increases that contribute to the sales line. These are generally margin neutral or even margin dilutive in the cases where we are simply offsetting cost increases, and that was certainly the case in the Americas during the period. We are pleased that we have been able to achieve the necessary price increases in all three regions to mitigate cost inflation. Price increases that we've introduced in the third quarter and those we plan for the fourth quarter will positively impact fourth quarter margins. While we continue to maintain tight cost control, inflation pressures continued to be felt across the business and were reflected in higher SG&A costs for the period.
SG&A costs were also higher as a result of project costs and an increase in marketing activity post-COVID. Moving to slide four, let's now look at each of the regions individually, starting with the Americas. Americas sales were up 20% for the nine months, reflecting the contribution from EZ-FLO of nearly $70 million for the period. Excluding EZ-FLO, net sales for the nine months were up 5%. The prior period included sales of $31 million arising from the U.S. freeze in February 2021. Adjusted EBITDA was down 1% and down 7% if we exclude EZ-FLO. The incremental volume from the U.S. freeze last year generated higher margins than average. The absence of these volumes, coupled with the margin-dilutive price increases, explain the reduction in adjusted EBITDA for the period.
Turning to slide five and looking at performance on a two-year basis, Americas achieved sales growth of 34% excluding EZ-FLO. If we include EZ-FLO, sales are up 53% on a two-year basis. EBITDA has risen 61% over the same two-year period. Underlying sales growth for the nine months, excluding EZ-FLO and adjusting for the winter freeze event last year, was 12%. If we further adjust for the one-off distribution changes by Lowe's in the first half, underlying revenue growth for the nine months was 15%. This is well ahead of the price rises we've achieved in the Americas, so we've definitely seen continued volume growth as a result of higher activity levels. We've also seen a contribution to revenue growth from our new products.
It is really pleasing that we've been able to continue to build on the step-up in volumes that we achieved in the FY 2021 year. We remain very pleased with the progress of integrating EZ-FLO with RWC. We are firmly on track to deliver both the revenue and cost synergies that we outlined at the time of the acquisition. While EZ-FLO's EBITDA margins have been running below the level prior to acquisition, this is due to the lag between cost increases and compensating price increases. We have seen margins improve in March and on into April. We still expect that the impact of the price increases will be reflected in the margin in the fourth quarter. I would note that EZ-FLO's margins were also impacted by the government-enforced shutdown of the Ningbo area for two weeks in January.
You will recall Ningbo is the location of EZ-FLO's manufacturing plant and distribution center in China. The shutdowns in the Shanghai area have not had a direct impact on our operations in Ningbo. We are maintaining a watchful eye on any potential knock-on impacts in logistics and shipping, which may arise due to the shutdown of the Shanghai area. Switching to Asia Pacific on Slide six, revenues for the region were up 9% for the nine months. This was driven by ongoing robust new housing construction and remodel activity in Australia, driving volume growth in the period. APAC's performance over the last two years has been strong, and you can see in the graph that revenues are 20% higher over a two-year period. EBITDA was 6% lower, and this was due principally to lower intercompany sales.
Volume shipped to the Americas in the third quarter of FY 2021 were significantly higher as a result of the U.S. freeze, and inventory levels were consequently depleted. In the latest period, we have rebuilt inventories, resulting in a negative profit and stock adjustment. We estimate that the combined impact of reduced volumes without the freeze and profit and stock adjustment from higher inventory levels was approximately AUD 8 million. In EMEA on Slide seven, net sales were down very slightly for the nine months versus PCP, and adjusted EBITDA was down 5%. Sales on a two-year basis are 10% higher. Continental European sales were higher versus PCP. This was principally due to demand for FluidTech products, which are focused on the water filtration and drinks dispense markets.
U.K. plumbing and heating volumes were lower, with the prior period having been particularly strong as volumes recovered following the COVID lockdown. During the third quarter, we completed the transfer of our warehousing and logistics activities to a third-party provider in the U.K. This led to some disruption in our delivery time frames and order fulfillment. We believe this negatively impacted sales in the period by around GBP 3.2 million. Delivery performance has now improved substantially, and we are confident we will recover these sales in the fourth quarter. Turning to Slide eight. We wanted to provide more detail on the trends we have seen in U.K. plumbing and heating volumes. This chart is rebased to an index of 100 back to the fourth quarter of FY 2019.
It tracks the volume of our top 20 plumbing and heating SKUs in the U.K., measured against external activity indicators for the plumbing sector. What you can see quite clearly is the strong growth in volume as the U.K. came out of lockdown from July 2020 onwards. This was significantly stronger than underlying activity at the time and reflected distributors rebuilding depleted inventory. More recently, we have seen distributor demand adjust to better match underlying activity levels. We have seen our sales volumes for these top 20 SKUs align with real activity levels, which are higher than pre-COVID. I'll now pass over to Andrew to discuss our debt profile and outlook for the balance of the year.
Thank you, Heath. On Slide nine, we have set out in the graph our debt maturity profile following our recent $250 million debt issue in the U.S. private placement market. The issue has four tranches with maturities between seven and 15 years and will supplement our existing loan facilities. We have increased our total committed funded lines to $ 1.05 billion. Net debt at the end of March was $ 555 million, up slightly on the half, due mainly to higher accounts receivable balances. Looking ahead to the full year, we plan to maintain a conservative stance around inventory levels. Supply chain disruptions remain a risk to the business, and since the half, we have seen the war in Ukraine and shutdowns in Shanghai exacerbate matters further.
We are successfully mitigating these risks by maintaining our inventory levels as a buffer against supply chain disruptions. We also see opportunity to win new business based on our ability to control our supply chain and respond effectively to demand. What this may mean in the short term, and specifically in the second half, is cash conversion will be lower than the 90% we would normally target. Let me now turn to Slide 10 on the outlook of the remainder of FY 2022. One of the really positive aspects of the results today is just how robust our end markets have remained, and we don't see that changing for the balance of the fiscal year. Remodel markets remain strong, and there appears to be a significant backlog of work, which will underpin volumes for some time.
In Australia, new residential construction is also expected to remain strong. The biggest issue we continue to face is cost inflation and the need to seek price increases to offset these cost pressures. As we have demonstrated in these results, we have a strong market position, which allows us to recoup cost increases through price. We expect fourth quarter margins to show improvement as the price increases we have put through the business are fully realized. However, continued cost inflation means that while we expect to achieve EBITDA margin firmly in the mid-20% range, we may fall slightly short of matching the FY 2021 EBITDA margin percentage. No question, supply chain challenges remain headwinds across industries and for us as well. The control we have of our own manufacturing facilities and our ability to execute allow us to respond quickly to changes in demand.
We remain very well-placed to not only manage through the current disrupted environment, but also seek new opportunities. All in all, we are really pleased with our ability to consolidate volume gains, particularly in the Americas, and continue to grow from there. This reflects not only positive market conditions, but also attests to the strength of RWC and its brands. We are focused on growing further from this higher base through market share gains, new products, and continued service excellence for our customers. With that, I will now hand you back to the operator to start our Q&A session.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. A voice prompt on the phone line will indicate when your line is open. Please state your name and company at the tone before posing a question. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll now take our first question. At the tone, please state your name and company before posing a question. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, it's Brooke Campbell-Crawford here from Barrenjoey. I just had a question, firstly, around price increases. If you think about if no further price increases are announced beyond the current quarter, so the fourth quarter FY 2022, what would the group price increase be into FY 2023?
Hi, Brooke. You're referring to sort of the rollover benefit?
Yeah, like if announced price increases for the fourth quarter, this financial year, I'm just trying to think about if there's nothing beyond that, what's the roll-through price increase we should see in FY 2023 at the group level?
Yeah. You know, look. Hey, Brooke, this is Andrew. As we reported, the price realized within the period for this, you know, nine months year to date was 8.7%. Now, that's higher than I think every time we've given an update, that number has increased, which is indicative of our ability to get more price. We expect that, by the end of the financial year that number that we'll report will approach 10%. The exit rate, obviously then in terms of the exit price increase run rate will be higher than that, and that will impact FY 2023.
Yeah. Okay. Thanks. Then just for the third quarter, you may have called this out earlier on, but the underlying volume growth in the Americas division in the March quarter if we normalize for EZ-FLO and the freeze, what was that? I think the sales growth was 22%, but what was volume?
Well, we haven't split out price and volume. If we talk about an 8.7% realized price increase for the group, it's gonna be higher than that for the Americas. It's gonna be around that double digit range. That gives you, Brooke, kind of a relative idea of how that would split out.
That compares to the 15% if you back out EZ-FLO and the freeze and allow for Lowe's.
For the nine months.
For the nine months. Yep.
Yeah.
You know, it's 22% was for the third quarter.
That's right.
Okay.
Yeah.
Yep.
Got it. Okay. Just the last one for me on EZ-FLO. Clearly some impacts there from the lagged pass-through from pricing and two-week shutdown in January. Just can you provide some comments there? 'Cause clearly the run rate of earnings is below what it was when you acquired the business. Can you just provide some commentary to give us some comfort that the outlook for this business is still as you would have expected at the time of acquisition, and that the impacts here are just sort of temporary?
Well, we're really confident that the impacts are temporary. The margin rate we saw in March and which is continuing in April, I mean, there's a little bit more price to come through as well are as we expected. If we talked about at the half, you know, we thought we could exit the fourth quarter at a number that was approaching the business in the first instance. Then we get to put the synergy benefits into the business as we go forward. Look, our long-term view of that business hasn't changed. We're not gonna wanna get too excited, but the revenue pipeline and opportunities are real. There's a lot we can get our hands around there. We like that business very much.
All right, great. Thanks for that.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question. As with done, please state your name and company before posing a question. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good evening, Heath, Andrew, and PK. It's Keith Chau from MST. First question, gents, for the Americas. Can you just give us a sense of where sales trends have progressed in the Americas since the end of the third quarter? Are there any signs of demand waning, or is it kind of steady? Well, not steady, but, you know, continued growth into the fourth quarter?
Yeah. It's profile is similar. Sorry.
Heath, any feedback from customers and the longevity of demand and, you know, how much further this demand can last? You know, some of the key indicators we look at suggest that demand can remain pretty resilient right up until the end of this calendar year, if not beyond. Is that the kind of feedback you're getting as well, from your sales team and your customer base?
Yeah. Look, I think the key indicator is where the contractors are at with their sort of workbooks and how much work they've got going on. That demand is gonna hang in for some time, I think. I mean, look, it's really hard, frankly, to look past the end of the financial year, let alone the calendar year. There's no signs of anything slowing down here in the U.S. at this point. It's pro-driven. We've talked a lot about that. The pros are busy, and they're not looking for work. They're trying to get work done. I mean, that's really the sentiment over here and how it feels.
Thanks, Heath. Second question, maybe to Andrew. I think you mentioned the Shanghai lockdowns haven't had a direct impact on the business and yet to be any flow-on effect. I just wanna get a sense of how much safety stock is within the business, particularly for EZ-FLO, but also the legacy business, which I think these, the import supply chains from China are a bit more fragmented than for EZ-FLO and Ningbo. How much stock do you have on hand? You know, let's just say everything shuts down from China today, and you can't get any product out. How many months of inventory do you have on hand?
Yeah, it's a good question, Keith. I mean, as you know, we're really heavy on inventory right now, over and above what we would normally carry. You know, we feel pretty confident that we could cover a shutdown. But it would be a matter of weeks, not months, obviously, which is why we're watching closely and we're gonna continue to hold that additional inventory, you know, as a buffer against circumstances as of that. I mean, if you look at just the inventory turns, right now our inventories turn in about three times a year. So that's about four months worth of inventory, right? That's across the whole business, but it wouldn't be that different when you're looking at that Chinese sourced inventory.
Andrew, do you have any alternate sources of supply? Like maybe not for EZ-FLO 'cause that's all contained within the Ningbo region. But for your legacy business, you know, if things were to go a bit haywire or more haywire in China, do you have alternate sources of supply for the products in the legacy business?
Look, I think it's fair to say over the last 12 months or so, we've looked at every nook and cranny and opportunity for alternative sources and so on. We've been calling on those, Keith, for some time. Look, ultimately, the decision we've made on inventory is pretty conservative and consumes some cash, but deliberately so because ultimately, it's that buffer is the strongest protection we've got.
Okay. That's great. Thanks very much. Third question just relates to the impact, the $8 million impact, in the Asia Pacific region. Andrew, you called out that that was due to low intercompany sales, which I guess should be well understood, but there's also a profit and stock impact in there as well. Just wondering if you could quantify for the nine months approximately what that profit and stock impact was.
Sure. I just wanna make sure that I clarify that that profit and stock number that we talk about, that's the movement between last year and this year. Last year, it was a positive impact. This year, it's a negative impact. You have to look at that, at the difference between those two years. Out of the $8 million, roughly three quarters is profit and stock, with the remaining being the volume impact that we talked about.
Let's call it $6 million for the nine months. I think in the first half, it was a couple million bucks. Implied for the third quarter in isolation would have been $4 million. By implication, the impact would have been $4 million?
That's correct. It's more of the benefit last year than the big negative this year if you look at that.
Just one final quick one. The $ 3.2 million sales impact in EMEA, can I confirm that that is simply a timing issue and will be caught up in the fourth quarter? Is it possible at all to give us an EBITDA impact from the impact of warehousing and logistics operations changes?
Okay. Look, first of all, that was GBP 3.2 million , not dollars.
Mm-hmm.
I guess that's.
Right
right around $4 million.
Yep
Those margins pretty strong over there, Keith. That hurt. We haven't called out the number. I haven't got it to hand, but you can approximate it pretty readily. It was painful. Look, there were additional project costs related to that project as well in the period. They made a difference in conjunction with that profit and stock amount. They're really the only movers worth calling out from an EBITDA point of view for the quarter. Back though to the issue of will we make it up? Yes, that's our expectation for the first quarter.
They're making really good or have made really good strides over there, and that run rate of shipping feels like where it should be. They do have to catch up a little bit, but that's our expectation for Q4. That of course contributes to the margin in Q4.
Okay. That's great. Thanks very much, gents. Appreciate it.
Thanks, Keith.
Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We'll now take our next question. As done, please state your name and company before posing a question. The line is open. Please go ahead.
Good evening. It's Peter Wilson here from Credit Suisse. Can I ask a question on Americas? So implied volume growth in the third quarter of about 10%, that's an improvement versus the first half where volumes were stable. Can you give us an idea of, you know, what changed and what improved and, you know, whether we should extrapolate that growth, or it's just quarter-to-quarter volatility?
Oh, yeah. I don't think you want to extrapolate too much there. I think there is just a bit of volatility quarter to quarter shipping times and delays and nothing's normal these days. So you've got to be a little bit careful. There's really nothing in particular to point to, Peter. Oh, there were some new products, but there were new products through the whole year, so there's not one theme that's really moved the needle. It's just the ongoing work to get the product on the shelf. I mean, if you can get it on the shelf, it moves off the shelf. You know, that can make a little bit of a difference quarter to quarter, so.
Okay, good. U.K. sales down again, I guess. You know, which you attribute to a strong PCP. It seems, you know, I guess your competitors and, you know, product distributors there, you know, they're reporting flat sales or, you know, even slight growth. You know, better results than you seem to be reporting. Can you maybe just, you know, give us your opinion on why that would be?
Look, we've spent a lot of time looking at our volumes, comparing it to the market, comparing to indices, you know, that are available, and there's not many out there. Talking a lot with our contractors. We are really confident that we've held our share, at least our share through the period. There's an awful lot of noise in it. I mean, the reason we put that chart in there was just to show how much the moves, you know, just how much variation there's been in what the overall market's doing versus what our shipments have been doing.
I think the thing we like is it, for us, it feels more stable now, the macro and the demand than what it did a few months ago. I guess that's coming a little bit more into alignment with what some of the others are saying. Incoming order rates are really quite solid. You know, I think that misalignment of shipments into distributors versus those out, that's now realigned, which we've got on page eight of the deck. Overall, I think those volumes have recovered to above pre-COVID levels. It's still hard to really read that market as well as the others, but it does feel a little bit better than a few months back. I think critically, we certainly are confident we haven't lost share on the way through, at all.
Okay, good. One last one on input costs. Given what's happening in Europe with gas prices and I assume resin prices, do you expect, I guess, further cost increases to flow through your business, you know, I guess in the next 12 months? Are the price rises that you've put through so far enough to get you back to that FY 2021 type margin, or do you need to put through further price increases?
Yeah, look, it's a really good question. You know, the impact in Europe on energy costs, we think will likely have a knock-on effect to material costs, sort of metals and resins. The impact on oil potentially can impact resins just a little bit as well, particularly when you get to the lower end of the resin spectrum. So, that's something we're watching and anticipate we'll have to deal with. In terms of price increases, what it feels like is there's no discrete price increase anymore. It's just an ongoing activity you have to deal with on a weekly basis. You know, just reassess where you're at and mobilize.
You know, the days at the moment where you had a once a year move in the U.K. just seem like the distant past. They're not discrete activities anymore. You adjust as you need to adjust on an ongoing basis. I think that's how it certainly feels in Europe, or will feel in Europe for the next however long.
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Okay, thanks, Peter.
We'll now take our next question. At the tone, please state your name and company before posing your question. Line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, Simon Thackray from Jefferies. Good day, Heath. Good day, Andrew. A couple of questions have already been fielded by you from the guys, but, like, a couple of extras, if I may. Just hearing your comments on the pro channel strength and ongoing demand in the U.S., and obviously the pipeline in Australia in particular, Heath. Just with what you've experienced so far in the fourth quarter, could I just get a view on the top line expectation for Q4 from both a volume and pricing perspective? I know you've called out, you know, for the full year, 10% realized price expectation or approaching it, but do you expect sequential improvement in volume in the fourth quarter?
No, I'd say it. The current run rate, you know, through the third quarter into the fourth quarter feels about right. I don't think there'll be any drastic difference in volume. There'll be a little bit more price increase that comes through, as Andrew was talking about before. We expect that average for the year will be, it'll be sort of around the 10% mark. That'll pick up a little bit through Q4, but I don't think volume's going to. We don't expect volume to change significantly through Q4.
Right. Revenue sequentially goes up as a function of price, not volume in the fourth quarter?
I think that's correct, yes.
Thanks, Heath. Just in terms of the experience with inflation and raw materials, if you can just give us a sense of how the LCL acquisition has helped sort of mitigate some of the materials cost, if at all?
Look, I think what it's given us is control more than an outright cost. Look, certainly the copper we make or the brass we make in Australia comes from recycled copper. I mean, 100% of the brass we're making down there is from recycled copper. But that was costed in, if you like, so that hasn't been an increase over what we thought. It's a good position, full stop. I think it's control of that supply of the reworking of the brass from our facility back into the LCL facility, which is adjacent to that, and being able to secure cabling and so on that we can process into copper. It's that control. It's one aspect of supply chain that we don't have to worry about. That's the benefit I would say.
No, that's helpful. Andrew, one for you, if I can. Just the addition of the $250 million private placement debt in the U.S.. Can you just step through the rationale again in terms of the requirement for that additional headroom, and whether M&A features in the funding decision? I guess, you know, as an adjunct to that, the organizational appetite for M&A at the moment, considering you are still bedding down the EZ-FLO acquisition.
You know, look, our thought process behind that placement were really two things. We wanted to increase the tenor of our debt. Our current facility was over two tranches. It was three and five years, and this takes us to seven, 10, 12, and 15. You know, that was one thing that we accomplished. Secondly, we wanted to fix a portion of our debt, where previously it was, you know, obviously, a variable type interest rate facility.
Floating, yeah.
Those were the two objectives and the thought process behind that. I think we did a pretty good job, the team did, of getting that through. Look, in terms of capital management, really no change. That money's there to fund organic growth, capital projects, new product developments, and then of course, M&A, in due course. You know, that's what that money is for, as we've kinda outlined over the last couple of years, and there's no change to that.
Okay, cool. That's it for me. Thanks, gents.
Thanks, Simon.
Thank you. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We'll now take our next question. At the tone, please state your name and company. Before posing your question, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good evening, gents. Peter Steyn from Macquarie. I just wanted to pick up on one or two things around the pricing environment, Heath. Perhaps just at a macro level, how comfortable are you around pricing power? You spoke about it becoming a daily activity, which suggests you're very comfortable. You know, in the context of a market that's certainly getting a little bit tighter with rates and everything else going on, do you foresee any strategic level change in your ability to pass on costs?
Yeah, I think that's a really good question. At this point, no, we don't. The short-term outlook, it feels as it has for the last several months, I guess, or longer even. No, at this point, it doesn't feel any different, Peter.
Okay. Just on that, extending a response that Andrew gave to an earlier question, Andrew, presumably, as you think about FY 2023, you're not gonna be annualizing the run rate that you're likely to have in the fourth quarter because your base is gonna firm. You know, I guess it's ill-advised to think that we're going to see double digits for FY 2023 if you don't raise prices further from here.
I think that's fair. I think it's a fair comment.
Well, we're lapping some increases.
That's right.
We were pretty early in the year. The copper-based increases were really early in the year. Some others are, like, happening now. Yeah, for sure.
Yeah. Okay. I just want to clarify my thinking there. The last one was just, you know, the Chinese COVID impact that we're seeing right at the minute. You know, we've spoken about inventory. Just curious, you're not actually seeing any impact at this point? Are you still being able to ship out of China without any issues?
Every day there's an issue of some description. We haven't had a day without issues.
Yeah
for probably the year.
The year
Look, right around the fringes where there's a couple of, you know, minor components here and there that are from vendors that are within that region, but we're able to make up for that. The bulk of it, the core of it is of our own facility and all our major sort of legacy vendors is Ningbo or elsewhere, and we've been fine. That continues to be the case, but we do watch that pretty closely, Peter. I mean, that's one decision by one person can make a big difference to a whole lot over there. So, we're watching it for sure.
Yeah. Thanks, Heath. I may just slip in one last quick question. Just a sort of bigger picture response to what we're seeing in interest rates, in the U.S. Just curious, in your channel partner conversations, how people are reacting to what they're seeing, at this point, more from a sentiment perspective, 'cause very clearly, you know, that's gonna take a little while for these realities to really hit home. Just curious what you're sensing from a sentiment perspective.
Look, at this point, I don't think much has changed. I think there's a lot of discussion around the taps about it. I don't think the sentiment in terms of purchasing has shifted at this point. I think though it still feels early days into what's happening with these rates. I think, you know, again, we take a lot of comfort from the fact we're much more heavily RMI-focused. I think, you know, even the biggest projects we get in are, you know, sort of mid-size remodel, as opposed to major ones. I think the potential for interest rates to impact those is less, but it's to play out. At the moment, there's no softening of demand.
We're not really seeing or feeling or hearing a sentiment change. I mean, we're out in the market all the time, keeping an ear out for that, of course. At this point, no real impact in the world we live in.
Perfect. Thanks, Heath. Andrew Scott, I'll leave there.
Okay. Thank you, Peter.
Thanks.
Operator, we'll now take.
Thank you.
Some questions from those online.
Sure. Thank you. There are no more questions in audio line as well. Thank you.
Thank you. I'll just read them out.
Sure.
Thanks, Andrew. There's several. Are we having active discussions for additional price increases currently? Are these discussions more difficult than they were in the first half?
Certainly discussions ongoing in, I'd say, everywhere around the globe. No harder or easier than before, depending on which channel, which customer. No, it feels similar.
Similar. Okay. Do you think supply chain pressures that we've called out are getting better or worse or no change?
Look, I was optimistic back at the half that we'd stop getting worse and I guess then hoped that it would start to get better, but it hasn't. In some things, it's got tougher. It's a bit mixed. It doesn't feel like it's gonna be easy tomorrow.
Thank you. A slightly different one now. Are you able to provide perspective on the John Guest acquisition integration pre-COVID, post-COVID, out the other side periods? What's worked well, less well or differently from expectations?
We could occupy a lot of time with this answer. We've gone through a lot. Overall, we're really pleased with that business. The platform it's given us in the U.K. and the opportunity to continue to expand in that market, bring new products, make bolt-on acquisitions on what is now a really strong business with a strong team, I think it is what we wanted and more. I mean, the capabilities there are tremendous. What I really want is a 12-month period where there's no craziness, so we can actually demonstrate what that team's achieved over there.
You know, coming through Brexit disruption a couple of years ago, through our SAP implementation, through COVID, through the challenges with what's on chart A. You know, we had to make that distribution change set up that we did over the last couple of months, which is to give us the capacity we need going forward based on what we want for that business. We needed more scalability in the warehouse. We're coming through all that. If we can get a solid period, I think we're gonna just show how strong that business is, and I really would love to do that. Overall, we're really we like it a lot. It's a super solid business, and it's delivering expertise for other parts of the world as well. For me, it's a big positive.
Next question. Can you just remind us on the seasonality of the business, and does the fourth quarter stand out in any way in that respect?
Holy schmoly, seasonality. I'm trying to remember what seasonality is for our business. Q4 normally is a bit stronger than Q3, 'cause Q3's got a sort of legacy of the Christmas and holidays. Q4 normally is a bit stronger than Q3, but-
You mean freeze.
Yeah. I mean, whatever freeze happens in, if it's in Q3 makes a difference. Generally, that's how it lands.
Next question. How much additional inventory do you believe you were carrying in dollars relative to what you may normally be carrying in this price environment?
You know, as we've looked at this, you really need to break inventory down and that increase, it partially is related to inflation, so it doesn't mean that we've got more units on the shelf. It just means that they cost more, obviously. You know, roughly, if you look at the inventory that we're carrying, we probably have somewhere in the magnitude of $40 million-$50 million that would represent additional units. Then you've got, of course, inflation on top of that, and that doesn't also include M&A, which is added to our inventory balances this year.
Thank you. Final question, how are you managing the risks of losing the key distribution channel across markets, for e.g. Home Depot in the U.S.?
By delivering really well. That's the best thing we can do. Look, you know, that's directly linked to the inventory question, isn't it? I think delivering well has really solidified those relationships. I think we're really... I'm just gonna elaborate too much here, Phil, but just bear with me for a second. I think we're really well-positioned. Look, as we understand it, and we don't get this data, of course, but as we understand it, our delivery performance is materially better than our peers. Okay? Think 10-20 percentage points better on fill rates. Okay? Even large sophisticated vendors are struggling in this environment.
At the other end, smaller vendors, frankly, I can't see how they've got the balance sheet to support the big volume step up from last year in combination with the inflationary environment right now. Frankly, you see that in fill rates. Our inventory, which is consuming cash, it was a deliberate decision, puts us in such a good position to deliver, get the product on shelf. It comes off. That solidifies the relationship. That's really what it's all about. That's the best thing we can do to secure that business going forward.
Thank you, Heath, Andrew. There are no further questions and on the call either, that I can see.
Okay. Well, very good. I appreciate everyone's time today. Thank you very much. Have a good day.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. Stay safe. You may now disconnect.