I will now hand over to Matt Daley, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Kaylee, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we discuss our financial results for FY 2026, my first as South32 CEO. On the call today we have Sandy, our Chief Financial Officer. It is an exciting time for our business with our positive operating performance and repositioning to base metals driving strong financial results, a clear pathway to substantial value accretive growth in copper and zinc, with 55% production growth expected from projects under construction or approved, and a pipeline of growth and life extension options beyond this that can drive further value and returns for our shareholders. Before I run through our financial results, I do want to talk about safety. The most important measure of our success as a company is the safety of our people, and in FY 2026, we did not live up to the standards we set ourselves.
The death of our colleague, Simon Mukwarami, in an incident at Worsley Alumina in March 2026, had a profound impact on everyone at South32, particularly our team at Worsley. Simon's family, friends and colleagues very much remain in our thoughts. We have taken steps to further enhance awareness of Worsley's existing procedures and controls for working at heights, and we continue to look at opportunities to design tasks in a way that eliminates or reduces fall from height risks. As South32 CEO, I am unwavering in my commitment to a workplace free from fatalities. Turning back to our financial results. Our base metals business drove strong earnings and cash flow, with strong operating performance enabling us to capture the benefit of commodity price tailwinds. While active cost management mitigated the impact of industry-wide inflationary pressures.
Group underlying EBITDA increased by 28% to $2.5 billion, and underlying earnings increased by 55% to $1 billion. Group cash flow from operations increased by $352 million to $610 million after investing approximately $700 million to grow future base metals production from Hermosa. Our balance sheet remains strong, with net cash of $283 million, after returning $327 million to our shareholders during the period. Reflecting our strong financial performance and disciplined approach to capital allocation, the board has today resolved to pay a fully franked ordinary dividend of $0.054 cents per share, or $242 million in respect of the June 2026 half year. We are also extending our capital management program to September 2027, with $209 million remaining to be returned to shareholders.
On July 1st , we announced the sale of our aluminium value chain assets to Alcoa for an enterprise value of up to $5.6 billion, plus the assumption of related rehabilitation provisions of over $1 billion. The transaction will unlock significant value for our shareholders and reposition South32 as the leading base metals company on the ASX. We have got high margin assets in tier one jurisdictions, a transformational growth pipeline and a strong balance sheet to deliver this growth and shareholder returns. We are working with Alcoa and other stakeholders to satisfy the conditions to the transaction and expect completion within the second half of FY 2027. Looking forward to FY 2027, we are progressing a pipeline of projects under construction, approved and in study phase that are expected to substantially grow our copper and zinc production.
At Sierra Gorda, this week we announced a 61% increase in the ore reserve to 1.1 billion tons, an extension of the initial reserve life by approximately five years to 19 years. This highlights the scale, the quality, and the long life ore body at Sierra Gorda, which is still open at depth. Sierra Gorda is expected to deliver production growth of 5% in FY 2027 and a further 2% in FY 2028, supported by higher planned copper grades. Beyond this, the recently approved fourth grinding line project is expected to increase production by approximately 30% from FY 2031. At Cannington, we have upgraded expected ore process with the inclusion of lower grade stockpile material to utilize available plant capacity. Life extension work from both underground and open pit sources is continuing, with the open pit development option offering the potential for further ore feed and life extension.
At Hermosa, we are focused on delivering our large scale, long life Taylor zinc-lead-silver project. The sinking of the ventilation shaft is advancing in line with our recent project update, and key processing infrastructure such as the primary and secondary mills and flotation cells have now all been installed. Once completed, Taylor is expected to deliver attractive financial returns for decades to come and support further growth phases at Hermosa. These include Peake, where exploration study work is continuing, support the potential for a future copper production within an integrated development with Taylor. We are also progressing an exciting portfolio of exploration options in base metals. Ambler Metals boasts district scale exploration potential in Alaska's unexplored and highly prospective Ambler mining district, where summer field season work is underway following progress on permitting and stakeholder support for the Ambler access road.
This paves a way to unlock value from Ambler's high-grade copper and zinc options. In closing, our operations are performing well. We are generating strong cash flow to underpin our base metals growth and shareholder returns. The sale of our aluminium value chain business will reposition South32 as a much simpler, higher margin business with a strong balance sheet and peer-leading growth, making South32 a leading base metals exposure for investors. I am going to pause there and happy to take any questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Paul Young with Goldman Sachs.
Yeah. Morning, Matt, and morning, Sandy. Hope you are both well. Matt, can we firstly focus on Sierra Gorda and just the outlook, which is pretty positive for FY 2027 and FY 2028, and implying a good improvement on mill throughput and recoveries. That is actually after a pretty challenging FY 2026 on both those items. Just wanted, asking if you could step through the confidence around the high mill throughput and higher recoveries. Is it related to digging into the mine plan a little bit, the changes you have made there and the fact that phase seven and phase eight in the pit have less clay?
Yeah. Thanks, Paul. Appreciate the questions, and you are spot on. We have done now around 85,000 m of drilling, which gives us a lot more confidence in understanding the mine plan and the reserve. It has obviously contributed to the 61% uplift in our reserve that we have announced this morning. As we move into these phases, into phase seven and eight, and the majority of the tons for FY 2027 and FY 2028 are coming out of phase seven. We are seeing higher copper grades, and we are seeing better mineralogy. With lower clay, you start to have more favorable processing conditions, which sees an uplift in our ability to push ore through the mill, but also improve our recoveries. That is giving us the confidence for the next couple of years.
Okay. Just further to that, can you just step through the changes you have made to the mine plan? Because I know that the reserve upgrade was not based on a higher copper price. Just if you can just step through just high level, what you have done there.
Yeah.
Or are doing—
Yeah. Happy to, Paul. I guess to reinforce your point, it hasn't been the commodity price change that's given us the increase in reserve. In fact, we've used quite a conservative price deck that I would say sits below consensus. What's really supported the upgrade now is the additional drilling that we've done over the last couple of years, so 85,000 m of drilling. That's obviously allowed us to convert and upgrade the confidence from the mineral resource to the mineral reserve, allowed us to run new pit shells, new pushback designs, which have incorporated this higher confidence in the ore body. So, that gives us both a life extension, and it really underpins the decision we've taken around the fourth grinding line.
When you have a long reserve life, what you want to do is bring that cash flow forward and the two combined, so bigger reserve, longer life, and now have a higher throughput through the mill from FY 2031, all comes together to improve confidence in the asset and produces more cash flow for a longer period of time.
Great. Thanks, Matt. Just quickly on Cannington, looking at the guidance, it's good that you're, I think you're under-promising on the unit costs, in my view, considering you're pricing more low-grade stockpiles. Can you just run through how much low-grade stockpile you have and what's baked into the guidance for 2027?
Yes. Certainly, Paul. If you step back and just have a look at the full ore body potential at Cannington, we have around 70 million tons in resource and only around 11 million tons in reserve. The obvious question there for us is how do we convert more of that resource into reserve? Even is there more potential to look at the resource and how do we start to fill up this mill capacity? The low-grade certainly plays into that strategy. It is part of the puzzle for us. We had really successful trials in last financial year, and that is really starting to build the confidence now for us into this financial year. We will continue to update the market as that work continues. We do think there is some upside that we will be able to push through some more tons on an instantaneous basis.
We have pushed the mills up now towards that 3 million ton run rate. There is a bit of work just to go through to understand what the low grade does to our pace filling system, but that confidence is building, and we will continue to update the market as we progress through that, along with the more broader studies that we are doing. At the moment, we are progressing the feasibility study on the open cut, and the open cut has been looked at for some time, but what is really different at the moment is we are looking at how we can run the open cut and the underground in parallel.
Really integrated mine plan that we believe is going to give us potential to convert more of the underground resource into reserve and give us a life through the open cut that will push well into the end of next decade and maybe even beyond that. That is the work that is currently underway. The low grade is certainly part of that strategy. When you have a mill that can do 3 million ton and we are only doing 2.1 million ton, there are obvious opportunities there for the push up volumes through the mill, generate more cash for the business. That is a piece of work that we are very busy on at the moment. We would like to think we will be coming back towards the end of the year at the latest, at the half year results to update the market on that study work.
Right. All right. Excellent. Thanks, Matt.
Your next question comes from Rahul Anand with Morgan Stanley.
Oh, hi. Good morning, Matt and Sandy. Thanks for the call. Two questions from me. First one on Australia manganese, if I may start there. I understand the water issues that have been ongoing and were covered a bit in the quarterly report as well, but just wanted to understand. You've obviously had an impact in FY 2028 as well. As to what the critical path items are here in terms of the rectification, and then if you can marry that up with the approvals that you require and what the timelines look like there as well. I'm just trying to think about the asset, FY 2028 and beyond and whether the guidance is conservative or is there more that we need to think about there? Thanks.
Yeah. Thanks, Rahul, for the question. Australia manganese at GEMCO, the operation started the year really well, but we are in the dry season. We've guided that range due to the uncertainty around water and the weather coming into the next wet season. We've had a couple of years of really high rainfall. It's certainly limited access to some mining areas. In response to that, right now, we're working with both the NT government and traditional owners to get permits in place to allow us to discharge larger volumes of water through a number of different mechanisms. Those initiatives in some place require some capital and hence some construction works. We're getting some really positive support from the NT government, but these processes do take some time, and hence why we're guiding to that range.
The other one to mention, Rahul, is you're probably reading about it in the newspapers, there is a super El Niño that's being forecast. This could have a very positive impact and that we could see a later wet season, which would see us definitely push towards the top end of that guidance. But we'll really have to wait and see how that plays out over the coming years. A number of moving parts there. Weather, El Niño, working on some additional permits. That's why we've guided the range, and we'll just keep updating it as that work progresses over the coming quarters.
Just a quick follow-up there then. I take it it's mainly the approvals and the infrastructure and the water discharge related infrastructure should be fairly quick to build, right? There's nothing major to think about there.
Yeah, it really is pipework—
Yeah.
—is the key part of the construction work we're having to do. Quite long and very large volumes of water that we're dealing with. We already have all the principal pumps installed now, so it's really about pipework outlets, and there's a number of different ways we manage water, a number of different mechanisms by which we discharge it, after it's been settled, and that's essentially the work. But that all requires a permitting process. Like I said, really great support, but it does take some time to work through those different options.
That makes sense. Okay, and the second one's for Sandy. Sandy, slide 19, you put forward your capital allocation framework. You are due to put out an updated framework post-transaction, and I appreciate that. I guess you have mentioned there on the slide that you're looking to design it to maximize per share value over the long term. Just wanted to understand, has there been any further thought go into what you're trying to solve for? Obviously, acquisitions, capital returns, buybacks, all remain to your disposal. But any further thought that you can provide to us as to how we should think about and how do you solve for long-term value? I mean, does that mean if acquisitions are not available, then you perhaps switch more towards buybacks, so that you retain some of that value?
Yeah. Thanks, Rahul. You are spot on in saying we have shared our updated capital allocation framework, which will apply post-completion. For now, the current framework is in play with our 40% payout ratio, and we will continue with that format right through until completion. Post-completion, when the new capital allocation framework does kick in, you will see us continuing to prioritize that safe and reliable capital as we have done, and a strong balance sheet. So a little bit of a change there in terms of the way we talk about strong balance sheet relative to being investment grade. We do expect to see a change there in our positioning, and that will reflect the different type of business we will be on the other side of the transaction. We will continue to allocate capital towards our committed growth and life extension projects.
Of course, for us that means Taylor, where we do have a significant commitment there. Then as you touched on, we will have that competition for excess capital, and that will need to contemplate the particulars at the time, whether or not the best per share value is through dividends or share buybacks or looking at growth and growth options. Of course, we do have a number of organic growth options that we are really committed to pursuing as Matt already touched on. So that will be an important part of the decisions we have ahead of us.
Got it. Okay. Is there at all a net cash balance that you would solve for or just the investment-grade rating, as you said?
We have not put out a net cash position or pursuit of a net cash position. That is not part of our framework, Rahul. Obviously, it is nice to be sitting in that position right now, given the task we have ahead of us. So good to have the strong balance sheet, but not committed to that going forward. We do expect to see the business evolving. And really the position is to have a strong balance sheet.
Brilliant. Thank you both. I will pass it on.
Your next question comes from Kate McCutcheon with Bank of America.
Oh, hi. Good morning, Matt. If I look at the 2027- 2028 outlook, I guess the key asset that is a little bit weaker than expected was around manganese. You have said that manganese is not core. Are there any stage gates or catalysts to work through before we come back to strategic review or something similar? Are you expecting the Anglo American and Teck Resources merger to change anything? Just thinking about the core portfolio moving forward.
Yeah, thanks. Morning, Kate, and thanks for the question. The focus for us at the moment is really running those assets safe and stably. We have talked around the water challenge at GEMCO. Likewise, we are always managing the logistics constraints that sit in South Africa. That is a combination of rail and trucking. We have very much talked around our preferred commodities being in copper and zinc, and so you will see capital allocation decisions move towards growth in our preferred commodities in that area. Our focus for manganese is really safe and stable operations.
Okay, got it. Just the MOU with Spence. Are there any kind of expected updates coming, or how do we think about, I guess, something quantifiable on that agreement there with the partners?
Yeah, thanks, Kate. We are quite excited about the MOU between our partners. KGHM is a really strong partner with us on Sierra Gorda, and obviously now working with BHP. I have talked about in the past, there are some really great examples of where these industrial synergies play out across mining operations that are very close to each other. We are only 10 km away from Spence and of course, Quebrada Blanca Northeast sitting between the two, which is a really exciting exploration target for us. I think all the partners right now are directionally aligned to keep moving this opportunity forward. It all starts with the discussions, which are well underway, and then we move into some technical work. That is very, very pleasing for us. The opportunities, the most obvious sitting there is the oxide opportunity.
We have obviously mined and have that stockpiled, and Spence has capacity through their leaching and SX-EW plant. But the opportunities are quite varied beyond that. Looking at the sulfides, the complex as one big infrastructure. Also, the obvious ones around economy of scale that sit with things like consumables, explosives, power, energy style contracts, and also what we can do with the tailings between the two operations. These things can move slowly until they do not, Kate. But I think what is really important now is all the partners are working really well together to progress this.
Okay. Thanks, Matt.
Thanks, Kate.
Your next question comes from Thiago Ojea with Citi.
Hi. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. My first question, I want to go back to the capital allocation framework, Sandy, if you can. I understand there will be a new framework post the transaction, but should we think that the 40% payout is a floor going forward as well? Also on pinging back on the Spence MOU, I understand that probably you are starting with procurement supply, a limited scope. You mentioned now tailings. Could this be going forward to use ore and processing facilities from one another and perhaps even a future JV? Is there any limitations with KGHM that would prevent you to do a future broader JV with Spence? Thank you.
Thanks for that. With regards to the payout ratio, we are not committed to the 40% payout ratio going forward. Of course, that represents a business where South32 was when we de-merged and what we have maintained over time, representing the scale of that business and the focus of that business in terms of yield generation. On the other side of this transaction, we are a growth-focused company, critically pursuing the increase in volumes in copper and zinc. With that, we will be looking at a different way of allocating our capital and our excess capital. You will see in the updated framework in our PAC that we will be seeing dividends competing with other growth alternatives for the best value for South32 shareholders going forward. So the 40% payout ratio will not be a floor. We will not have a fixed payout ratio.
We're not intending to have a fixed payout ratio. What we will be doing is looking at that flexibly for the best value for our shareholders. I'll hand to Matt for the second question.
Yeah. Thanks, Sandy, and thanks, Thiago, for the question. I think your question had a lot of the answers contained within it. Certainly, there's a whole host of opportunities for us to look at, and that's what the MOU starts to set up, that opportunity to work constructively between the two different operations with all the partners aligned. There's some low-hanging fruit, you'd say, around opportunities like consumables and definitely oxide is one of those opportunities. To understand the full potential that could sit there by sharing the processing infrastructure and having a single mine plan, that requires both teams to put some data into a data room effectively, and you start working through where there's any fatal flaws and then progress to some technical work. Partners recently got together. They've all aligned the direction. There's a logical way you get about doing this.
You probably want to get after some quick wins first, and that's where we're focused. But certainly, we'll progress that work over the coming quarters, and we'll be certainly updating as it progresses because I think there's a really exciting opportunity there for the two complexes.
That's clear. Thank you.
Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Glyn Lawcock with Barrenjoey.
Hey, Matt. Morning. Maybe just to push you on Kate's question on the manganese sale, firstly. You did say you were just waiting for Anglo to have the bandwidth to engage on an approach you had. Has Anglo now, I mean, they have closed the coal sale. They are only waiting on one deal or one regulatory approval now for the Teck deal to close. So have they got the bandwidth to now re-engage with you on a sale of South Africa Manganese?
Yeah. Morning, Glyn. Good to hear from you. We have not updated since we last talked around Anglo's position on that. We are likely to catch up with Anglo in the coming months at one of the conferences or certainly the International Council on Mining and Metals, that will be an opportunity potentially to have those discussions. But I think they are very focused on closing out the Teck deal, and we have certainly got our focus on our growth, our operations, and closing out the aluminium deal. So at that stage, I would say there is no real update, Glyn.
No, that is understood. And then just your thoughts, Matt, around obviously you want to grow the business. You are not going to have much left post the aluminium sale and if you get rid of manganese as well. Just your thoughts. Could you move now, or do you need to at least get the shareholder vote behind you so you know the proceeds are coming? Could you move now, or do you need to wait? Thanks.
Yeah, thanks, Glyn, for the question. Our focus, or I guess my focus for the organization in the coming 12 months, is really clear, and I am keeping it really, really simple. First and foremost, it is always around running these operations really well. The biggest value creation opportunity in our business comes from running safe, stable, and predictable operations. Secondly, for us, it is successfully executing the aluminium value chain transaction. Of course, a part of that, we are resetting the operating model is to become a simpler and more focused business, and there is a number of steps to get through that shareholder vote and then moving through some of the regulatory approvals. Then third, the focus is absolutely on delivering the growth that is in front of us, particularly Hermosa and Sierra Gorda.
That is the focus for us in the near term, really to ensure that we are a high-performing base metals company, just creates lots of value for our shareholders, our employees, and our stakeholders. We will continue to look at opportunities that are out there in the market, but by no means is there a need to replace one asset desperately with another one. For us, it is all about value rather than growth for the sake of growth, and that is the way we are thinking about it.
Yep. No, understood. It is a very different company and a lot more exciting, I guess. Just on the dividend, I heard Sandy say obviously no minimum payout anymore, but, and obviously it will depend on use of cash. Do you still see yourself as aiming and liking to pay a dividend every six months, or could we now expect periods where if you bought something and the balance sheet is indebted, that you would even suspend the dividend, or you still want to be seen as at least a regular paying company? Thanks.
Yeah, that is a great question, Glyn. Well, we certainly see the value our shareholders put in that regular return of capital, and it is really important that we are balanced as we think forward in what our shareholders each need. We have been balanced historically in the way we have distributed our cash flows. If you look back over time, we have certainly sought to invest in the business, in growth, and of course, in returning capital to shareholders. We do see that as really important. It creates a great tension point for us as well in terms of excess capital and competition, which our shareholders have valued, right? They want to see us really pushing our business to get good returns. So we certainly see that as an important part going forward of the overall proposition for shareholders, Glyn.
Okay. Thanks, Sandy.
Your next question comes from Lyndon Fagan with JP Morgan.
Good morning, everyone. Just wanted to focus on the Sierra Gorda oxide opportunity. Are you able to quantify the copper production that you're looking at from that?
Morning, Lyndon, and thanks for the question. Not at this stage. It is part of the MOU work that is going on now. I think the market knows quite clearly that Spence, in terms of the oxide, does have capacity through their leaching and SX-EW. That requires some technical work. There is obviously transfer of that. There are commercial elements that have to be worked through. I think from memory, there is about 300,000 tons of contained copper sitting in the 110 million tons of oxide stockpile. So it is a very nice opportunity to get after. But in terms of what that could look like on a go-forward annual basis, I cannot share that at this time. It really requires us to progress that technical work.
Great. Are you able to give some color on the Cannington open-pit project in terms of what we're waiting for, and I guess, again, there's obviously going to be some latent capacity in the process plant. What sort of incremental silver equivalent production you're looking at?
Yep. Yeah. Really exciting project for us. The status of the study at the moment is we're into the final stages of our pre-phase study. Many components in that as you start to look at the ore body, the reserve, the scale of the pit, the sequence, and this is the first time we've actually looked at a parallel integrated plan with the underground. The underground pit doesn't impact any of the surface infrastructure in terms of the plants or office facilities or existing tailings. It does, however, have an impact on the underground. Obviously, you're creating a big funnel for water sitting on top of the underground, and you also have some ventilation and power reticulation constraints. We're working through what that looks like. Also on the permitting front.
The real potential we see at the moment, basis for study work, is to maximize the capacity we've got in the mill through a combination of the underground and the low-grade material. Probably around the end of the decade, you'd look at the open cut coming in in parallel with the underground, and that's really, for us, a big life extension opportunity. The cash flows we're seeing today, you'd like to think you'd keep really strong production out of the combined entity through having higher throughput through the existing mill and pushing out towards the end of the decade. We're at the point now, we're in the final few months of closing out that study work, and like I said, we'd look to update the market probably around the half-year results, in terms of what that study is looking like.
Thanks.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Daley for closing remarks.
Thank you, Kaylee. I just want to thank everyone for joining our call today and for all the questions. I am really pleased with the results for FY 2026. We have a lot of positive momentum going into FY 2027 as we really focus on our key priorities of safe and stable operations, our growth projects, and closing out the aluminium value chain transaction into the first half of next calendar year. We might leave it there, and just thanks again, everyone, for joining.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.