Thank you, Lexi, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining the call. You should all have the pack that we've sent out. T hank you for logging on to the call. Just, there's a few pages of important notice and disclaimers, so please, I'd like you to reflect on those because that's the basis upon which we're giving you this information today. I guess if you could just go to page 8 of the slide pack, that'll take you into maybe our a little upgrade on our FY24 trading. The first quarter started well, then the next four months worked out extremely well for us from that point of view. The acquisition program, that's where we told you we're gonna do AUD 280 million.
Excluding Sure, we've done AUD 165 million. We're online. We've completed the acquisition of ISU in North America. A s of the date of this document, Steadfast's got an unused debt funding capacity of AUD 165 million available to fund our further acquisitions, and our gearing sits at that particular time at about 26.2%, prior to the completion of the Sure acquisition and the equity raising, which we're discussing today. We previously advised you that our FY 2024 unaudited underlying EBITDA is up 22.4% from the first quarter period to period of 2023. Our unaudited underlying NPAT is up 15.3% for, again, same quarter to quarter. W e've completed the acquisition of ISU in America for $55 million.
It's one of the largest privately owned independent insurance agency networks in the United States. It's a highly scalable business model. It offers us significant opportunity to grow by increasing its membership and consolidating the production of all the agencies under the ISU master contract. It reminds us very simply of what this Steadfast looked like back in the early nineties. We'll roll out our network services and the potential for us to invest in independent agencies within the network is outstandingly appropriate, and we review all the time what we're doing there. The US expansion continues to execute on Steadfast strategy of acquisition-led expansion and growth in the international markets, in combination with the home-based play of our domestic Australian and New Zealand or Asia Pac business.
If you go to page 9, this is a reaffirmation of our target, AUD 280 million, excluding the Sure Insurance acquisition. W e've completed 18 acquisitions, including ISU in North America. Our estimated EBITDA is AUD 16.2 million on that, and at an acquisition cost of AUD 165 million. We've still got 15 term sheets, and due diligence has commenced on a further AUD 4.9 million in EBITDA and for an acquisition cost of AUD 45.4 million. T hen there's another 17 term sheets with AUD 5.7 million in EBITDA and a potential AUD 50.5 million in capital allocation to secure that.
And there are another 21 opportunities that are in our pipeline that are moving through our process, which was roughly AUD 16.8 million or another AUD 166.8 million in acquisition cost. T hat's our pipeline, excluding Sure, and our status quo, where we got up to now. If you just flip over to page 10, it's a little complex when you look at it, but it shows you how we're allocating our acquisitions. It gives you where our AUD 165 million that we've done today, including ISU, exists. T hen it shows how we intend to exceed our AUD 280 million acquisition target. Again, all of these exclude Sure. I f you run along, this shows from FY1 3 through to our estimated FY 23-24.
And the color coding gives you a reference to where we come into and shows you our targets, where we started, our IPO, where Sure would come into it, and our Trapped Capital program. I f you then flip over to the reason for the meeting today and go to page 12, a review of what Sure Insurance is. Well, I guess it states the headline states it's a scalable, it's highly efficient, it's data-driven, it delivers excellence in claims and management and customer experience. It's been operating since 2019, and it's been a rapidly growing underwriting agency for home and contents in an area that nobody in Australia wanted to write, which was regional Queensland.
It was dominated by Suncorp up there, and of course, other insurers were a little hesitant to put their capital down in those areas. 100% of Regional Queensland is the focus for the specialist capability and ability of this insurance underwriting agency to understand the special needs in the region and focus particularly on the weather events and how to underwrite in that area. They've got an impressive growth on their GWP over the last four years, and they've got significant capacity provided by three APRA-licensed international insurers. They've expanded their property insurance offering to include residential strata, which is growing exponentially at the moment, and it's been welcomed by people like the ACCC to see some competition and some capital being deployed in North, Far North Queensland. It's a highly recognized brand.
It benefits from a high level of an annuity-type income with a track record of maintaining 85% renewal retention. That's at the top end of what any insurer would hope to achieve in any sector that they operated in. The profitable risk selection, which is optimized through the use of their sophisticated algorithms, means that they are making money for the insurance capital that they're given to deploy in this area. The success of this business is that it's technically driven, it's multi-channel in its distribution strategy by direct and brokers. It's got an incredibly high quality in-house management team for claims, that reduces the average cost of claims. B y its efficiency in how it does its claims, it has a tremendous support from any of the people who make a claim through it.
Sure Speed has a deeply experienced leadership team. The founders have—one has 40, the other has 30 years experience in underlying insurance, software, and an incredibly intimate knowledge of the region that they're deploying their algorithms into. The charts, the pie charts at the bottom give you the split on home and contents in strata, and then the distribution strip between broker, direct, and into direct web as well. It's a nice package of well-thought-out pricing in an area that needed capacity and has gained great support. I f you go over to page 13, this is the record of what Sure has done.
We've gone back to 2021, started in 2019, started to hit its straps in 2020 and 2021, and now, as you can see, is growing greatly across its GWP, its total revenue growing. The two bar charts there run almost sequentially, and of course, their EBITDA is jumping along the lines there. T hen the EBITDA margin, which is sitting up in the top end of where we'd expect it to be, and the unbroken line, the broken lines there will show you, the potential of what we're looking for in FY 24 and 2025. L et's just look at what their competitive advantage is on page 14.
It combines an incredible knowledge of the region and incredible knowledge of the products that needs to be sold into the region. It's data-driven. It has a technology platform that delivers excellent outcomes for both the insurers who deploy the capital and also the customers that avail themselves of the products. F or the customers, the policies have been customized for the region and to target desired insurance and optimized pricing. Simple and quick to get on board, and the claims experience is seamless. For the insurers, their algorithmic analysis and data selection and application of where they insure gives superior risk selection. It's a significant distribution network, both via direct and by broker, and their claims efficiency is reducing cost of claims to well inside some of their competitors that operate in this area.
So FY 23, the Net Promoter Score of +46, retention rate of renewal, it's about 85%. There are 20 dedicated sales and customer service staff at 30% strike rate, which is in the upper end of strike rate you would expect. 18% would be considered a good strike rate. B ecause of the specific way they analyze what they want to write and their knowledge of how they can price that, their strike rate's higher. They've got a 14%, which is amazing, conversion rate on their web, and they've got access to over 100 brokers and 400 authorized reps. The management team has probably the most extensive industry experience of anybody underwriting in the Australian market.
So it's very difficult to compare other people that come in and out of this market with a select team of experts, with a great algorithm and knowledge of what they can write and price it for profit. I f you go over to page 15, they've got Queensland is a large and growing market, underpinned by a very strong demographic. Regional Queensland is large and growing. Okay, there's 556,000 homes, 23,000 strata companies, top strata properties up there. The population is growing all the time. People are exiting the southern states and going up there, so the growings are increasing, the infrastructure spend's increasing, and there's a high level of migration and job creation.
It's a wealthy state, expanding all the time, with a need for specific insurance for this demographic that operates up there. Sure is binding over 52,000 policies. It has an 85% retention rate, and it's got significant capacity to grow. The insurers who support the algorithmic analysis of risk selection and profitability are very keen to deploy more capital into this area. Unlike most of the other insurers who are operating on the Australia-wide ban, they know what they want to write, they support what they want to write, and the history since 2019 clearly shows and articulates the success of their algorithm, the success of their deployment of the capital and their loss ratio. Underinsurance in this market and pricing in excess of technical pricing is the linchpin of how this business will grow. Most people are underinsured.
Sure's insurance partners now have availed themselves of the reinsurance capability of the Cyclone Reinsurance Pool, and that's allowing us to, in our algorithms, to actually become slightly more competitive due to the volatility of named cyclones being taken out of the reinsurance program. If you have a look at their markets, on the pie chart on the right, you can see they've got a very slight, small slice of a very big market and ever-expanding. A s you can see underneath it, in the bar charts, Queensland homeowners and the annual GWP is growing at 7%. O ur opportunity is to leverage their existing underwriting and IT capabilities, and to expand their product range and their geography. This system is highly scalable.
The intelligent way that they underwrite is applicable to other geographies all around Australia. It's very suited to the Steadfast Client Trading Platform, and it operates on a pricing mechanism, which allows the benefit of a small, concise team to be able to operate at a more effective level than, say, a major insurer that has hundreds of people doing specific issues. This is a tight, technology-driven proposition that produces great GWP growth and profitability for the insurer. L et's go to page 16. Stephen and I will show this. We'll share this together. Okay, it is a leading specialist. It is focused on delivering property cover to Regional Queensland. That sounds like a silly statement to make when all we've heard over the past several years is nobody wants to write in Queensland.
These people said there's a massive amount of business in Queensland that an insurer can write, developed an algorithm to do this, put it into practice, got financial support from great capital providers, deployed the capital, made the profit, and have created a niche in a market other people turned their back on. It's highly successful. It's got incredibly excellent historical growth. It's consistently increased its market share, and the scope for the future is unlimited. It's got... The management team is experienced. Their performance record is tracked. They watch and align everything to the way we think about business. We are absolutely simpatico with one another about how you should remain engaged and meaningful to anything that you do, particularly in providing the services required in that area.
It's a highly efficient, proprietary pricing and underwriting data-driven algorithm system that allows them to be competitive and efficient in their policy issues, and efficient for the capital that's been given to them to make sure that the insurers want to stay writing because of their position. It's interesting that the recent hailstorms that have hit Queensland, we spoke to them about what impact that made to them. They analyzed where the hail has fallen and said, "We do not even have rating algorithms for those areas because we think they are too volatile, and we don't write in those areas." That's how specific these people are. Although they've got a broad customer registry and multiple distribution channels, they are very definitive about what they can and will write.
In other words, if they, if it fits into what their risk appetite is and their algorithm is, that they will write it. If it doesn't, they don't discuss doing it. We don't write in that area. T hey've got multiple insurance distribution networks. It's a capital-light business. It's got strong flows. It's underpinned by stable and, and renewable revenue. It's potential to expand its product range through other geographies that Steadfast network operate in, and access to our contestable platform, to the Client Trading Platform, is unlimited. Our earn-out and minority stake, and, and minority stake delivers adequate incentives to, the, the founders. We're buying 70% of this business, the founders are staying in for 30% of this business. It's a great slice of, of a, of what it is, and so the strategic alignment of Sure and Steadfast is amazing.
Just on the acquisition, I'll hand over to Stephen now to just run through that.
Yeah, thanks, Rob. K ey messages here is that the acquisition is valued at a 10.333x multiple of EBITDA. A s Rob mentioned, for 70% of the business to have that 30% retention in a very fast-growing business, no surprise that there's an earn-out arrangement, which is helpful for the retention of those people, but also a good risk mitigant for us. T here actually are three installments that are payable. There's a first payment, which is a fixed price at $148.8 million, and then there's potential for two earn-outs based on the 2024 trading and then the 2025 trading. U nder that earn-out arrangements, whatever we pay at the end of 2024 is subject to a clawback if 2025 were to go backwards.
There's also a put and call option in place, for all that process has been completed for the following year, for potentially a 20% further stake, and so 20 of that 30, which would be then priced at the fair market value, and we would do that as a scrip for scrip offer. T he transaction is therefore forecast to be immediately EPS accretive, and we'll come to the numbers shortly. Going to slide 17. This just helps you to understand those what I just described in the number format. The first column is the upfront payment. The second and third column shows a potential example based on some of the forecast information that has been presented to us that we've done our DD on.
So the first payment is based on an average of FY 2023 that has been done and the 2024 forecast. That shows you how we get to the AUD 148.8 million payment using those multiples. The 2024 payment is an example of if they hit the AUD 24.5 million, then we would be writing a check for the AUD 28.8 million at the end of August, let's say August 24th, the conclusion of the 2024 year. I f the 2025 projection there of AUD 38.7 million was met, you would see how we'd be writing a check for another AUD 102.5 million, noting, of course, the callback, if it was to go backwards in that 2025 year. H and it back to Rob just for a moment on slide 18.
Okay. Thanks, Stephen. I know it's a bit to absorb, but it's a fantastic business, and it requires analysis of where it is. O n page 18, the acquisition strengthens and diversifies our position in our underwriting agency panel. Okay, which Sure has an increasing market share. It's growing in its demographic of Regional Queensland, and further adds to our capabilities of supporting Queensland in a state which is affected by weather events adversely all the time. It seeks to add value across all its operations, from pricing, underwriting, sales, distribution, customer service, and claims management. It's not just a business that seeks to grow as fast as it can.
It's a business that seeks to grow and modify and amend all of what it does to be more efficient and make sure that when it binds a customer, that the service that that customer gets at claims time is the best in the industry, and that the loss ratio that they put into their claims is very efficiently done and handled. Their claims cost is amazingly different to some of the claims costs that we can see across other insurers. It enhances the offering that we can do for brokers to provide capacity in new markets. There's the ability to be able to say to people, "Yes, we can do things for you in Far North Queensland," is amazing.
Plus, also, as I reiterate, the rating algorithms they've got can be dropped into every geography around Australia, and we can replicate this, particularly using the efficacy created by the Client Trading Platform. The Client Trading Platform gives us the ability to stretch this business into other areas using the same disciplines, the same algorithms, and the same customer service and claims efficacy that they've developed over the last four years in Queensland. Steadfast believes it can support Sure to extract further additional growth by increasing its market share in existing markets and by taking additional products into further geographies as they expand. The acquisition of Sure is consistent with our disciplined approach to strategy. I f you have a look at page 19, that's basically our current form of MGAs that we run, and we're very proud of that.
We're very proud of the success of that. We're very proud that the people that run those businesses all have a similar thought about life to the way we do, that the customer comes first, efficiency in claims is prime, and expansion comes if you do what you say correctly and you do what you do for the consumer efficiently. J ust to get to the number where we go, I'll hand back to Stephen to go through the placement and the equity raising on page 21.
Yes, thank you, Rob. T he page 21, we've got set out the timetable there for the later. T he key points here for the equity raise, both the placement component and the share purchase plan. We'll, of course, announce the final placement issue price tomorrow on the stock exchange, but the book build happens today. The floor price is AUD 5.06, which is a 6.5% discount to the close of trade last night. All the new shares that are issued rank equally with the existing shares on issue, and this new issue that for the placement is fully underwritten. The share purchase plan, which is not underwritten, will commence following completion of the institutional book build with that AUD 30,000 cap per shareholder.
Those SPP shares will be issued at the lower of the issue price of the placement or the 1% discount to the volume weighted average price of our stock in the five-day trading at the end of the SPP offer period. O f course, the SPP booklet will be issued to contain further details for our eligible shareholders. Slide 22. We've shown here the source and the use of the funds for the institutional placement. The AUD 280 million equity raise will provide funds for the first tranche of the Sure acquisition, namely that fixed AUD 148.8 million dollar amount. We've also raised sufficient funding here to cover the forecasted second payment of AUD 28.8 million dollars at the conclusion of this FY 2024 year. That amount is variable, of course, depending on the financial performance of the business.
But this amount, we'll apply that initially to our debt facility to reduce interest costs and then, of course, have it ready for the, for any earn-out. When you deduct the AUD 5.2 million transaction costs, that balance of AUD 97.2 million will be applied initially, again, to reduce our debt facilities, but able to be withdrawn for further acquisition opportunities or earn-out payments. Rob's previously outlined that current pipeline of opportunities, and you have seen our continued appetite to acquire insurance intermediary assets over our listed history. We're also mindful that that acquisition of Sure does have an earn-out payment referable to that FY 25 year... What we have not shown here yet is the additional proceeds that we raised from the non-underwritten SPP, which of course, is not known at this stage.
Slide 23, how does this equity raise and the Sure acquisition then impact our gearing ratio? So the first table here seeks to show you how our gearing ratio develops. At June 2023, we reported 19% gearing. At the AGM a few weeks ago, we were at 25.6%. That was after completing the ISU transaction in America. W ith a few more acquisitions since that time, we now sit at 26.2%, as you see in the second column there. We then show the outflow of funds from the first tranche of Sure and the full equity raise from the institutional placement net of transaction costs. A t the conclusion of those transactions, we expect to be 20.9% geared, well, of course, within our board-mandated 30% gearing position.
The second table there on that slide shows you the funding capacity within our corporate debt facilities. W e have AUD 165 million available today, but you can see with the 148.8, it pretty much eats up most of that. A fter the equity raise, we then have that AUD 291 million dollar capacity. Now, in addition to the AUD 291 million, the other sources of cash available to us is really threefold. One is any cash that we do raise on the non-underwritten SPP. Secondly, the free cash flow, circa AUD 100 million dollars per annum.
And then thirdly, the additional debt capacity that gets opened up that alongside this equity raise, so that if we would utilize the AUD 291 million, that would get us to 30% gearing normally, but this extra AUD 280 million of equity raise, it allows us to borrow a further AUD 120 million and still stay within the 30% gearing ratio. W e could do that either through the accordion facility or, or further enhanced debt facilities. G oing to slide 24, going to the impact on our profit and loss and the EPS accretion.
So if you combine both the acquisition, the equity raise, we're talking about a 1% annualized accretion here, made up of 4% from the acquisition itself, 2% where we initially applied the excess proceeds into against our debt facilities, and then a 5% dilution from the capital raise. We've shown in the first table here, the earnings forecasted for Sure, both for the remainder of this FY 2024 year, and in the far column, what's the annualized full year impact? We've shown the EBITDA we expect here, remembering, of course, the EBITDA has to get reported at 100% rather than the 70%. The non-controlling interest comes out below the line. W e've also then shown you the NPAT that is attributable to Steadfast and the NPATA attributable to Steadfast being the effective 70% stake.
We've then also shown the after-tax impact of the finance cost that we would save, that of course, doesn't impact EBITDA, by banking that initial overraise, which you might call the overraise, into the debt facilities. These numbers assume that the proceeds are not utilized on any further acquisitions for the year. I f I go to slide 25, this next slide seeks to show investors, I guess, the impact that we have on FY 2024 guidance, where we're now upgrading to reflect the combination of, one, our strong start to the year on organic growth, two, the actual acquisition of Shaw, and three, the equity raise. Note that our original guidance assumes AUD 280 million of acquisitions. I f you just exclude Shaw for a moment, then that assumption still holds. We expect to meet that, that target of AUD 280 million.
The Shaw acquisition is really on top of that AUD 280 million. Y ou can see we've uplifted the guidance range for underlying EBITDA by circa AUD 20 million and lifted the NPAT range by AUD 10 million and the NPATA range by AUD 13 million. The underlying EPS, referable to NPAT, is up 1% from the original range, up to now 11%-16%. If you wanted to reconcile the components of the buildup of the upgraded guidance, then I'd refer you back to the previous slide that shows you the impact of Shaw, shows you the impact of the equity raise, and the balance, of course, is the strong start for the first four months of the year. We've kept our original assumptions for the next eight months as they were originally.
I'd also draw your attention to the box on the right-hand side here, where the acquisitions that we expect to now be done in FY 24, including Sure, a lot of that can flow through into FY 25. I f you are looking at the FY 25, we can see already that the acquisition growth rate can contribute 4% to NPAT into the next financial year. S lide 26 is the key dates for the equity raise, and without going through every key date, let me just say that the placement book, of course, is today. The SPP process is complete just before Christmas. T hat really concludes our presentation, other than to say that, of course, that the key risks and the international offer restrictions follow for the investors to consider, and we'll hand back to Lexi, our moderator, for questions and answers.
... Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Kieren Chidgey from Jarden. Please go ahead.
Morning, guys. Maybe just starting on some of the numbers around Sure, just to sort of understand their P&L a little bit better. The revenue margin there, I'm just surprised by sort of the on a AUD 200 million GWP base out in 2025, sort of that's generating revenue of AUD 65 million. Y ou know, around a 30% revenue margin, which is about double in your existing agency business. C an you just talk to sort of why the margins here are so much higher?
That relates to the gross revenue, if you like, that they receive.
Yep.
Often we report into our agency numbers, the payaway for the broker.
The net. Yep.
Now, in this case, because a lot of their business is not done through the broking channel, we thought it might be more appropriate to show you the gross revenue.
Okay, just different basis.
Yeah.
Different, different basis.
Yep. Okay.
Yeah.
And then the assumptions underpinning sort of, the growth into 25, I'm just hoping you could unpack those. A little bit more detail around sort of what you're assuming around the pricing cycle in those products relative to sort of the build-out of, additional products like their strata or, or sort of market share.
The pricing cycle is going to probably show a between 2.5% and 6%, possibly on existing pricing reductions due to the impact of the of all of the insurers participating in the cyclone pool. Y ou might find that an average of 3% will come off the renewal pricing of current. The fact that there is a demand increase across that area that this company fulfills, and that other companies that could operate in that area do not fulfill, means that our growth trajectory is getting stronger. Queenslanders are incredibly patriotic people towards anybody who supports them in terms of difficulties.
So yes, it'll continue to grow because basically, word of mouth has spread dramatically through Queensland about a local Queensland company that's set up specifically with a desire to write business in areas when many people that they talk to are saying, "We don't want to write up in that area." So the growth trajectory is very solid, it's very strong, and it's based on the last four years of exponential expansion due to delivery of service and efficiency of pricing. M ore particularly, the ability to control their claims costs well in advance of some of their competitors.
The fact that they can now write strata in an area where most companies, including some that we actually own and control, are restricting the capital they put in that area, means that there is a growth strategy in strata which has not been realized at this particular time.
Yeah.
Okay.
It's fair to say that standing start in FY18 from literally a standing start to zero-
Yeah
-to get to, you know, not quite 10% market share. I don't think they're saying that's it, that's the end of their market share.
No.
The forecast is for continued penetration in the market.
Okay.
And people in Queensland have got a long memory about being rebuffed and told they couldn't get placed and that they can't insure particular areas. T he social impact of servicing an area which has been black labeled by the insurance industry is one of the best selling points these guys have got.
Rob, you touched on strata. Is there any sort of overlap or competition with CHU between these businesses?
In certain sectors, yes, there is, and that's the DNA of how we operate all of our businesses. We never restrict any of our businesses from competing against one another. We believe that competition is the DNA of getting efficiency in anything that you do. Y eah, there would be some. T here might be. They may impact, so we may lose on the swings, but we'll certainly gain on the roundabout.
Okay. My second question, just on the guidance, the revised guidance for 2024. You know, it seems you, you're going to own this business for about 7 months of the year, so, you know, a bit over 0.5% accretion if it's 1% on a full year basis. T here doesn't seem to be much revision, if any, on the underlying existing business in 2024. I just wanted to confirm, Stephen, I think you said you haven't changed anything for the remaining 8 months. You've only taken into account what's occurred for the first 4 months of the year. Is that correct?
That's correct. There's around about, you know, if you-
Yeah
... if you looked at page 24, and it says, you know, just short of AUD 6 million of NPAT coming from Sure, and then not quite AUD 3 million, 2.7 coming from the financing costs. You'll see there's, you know, just sub AUD 2 million, which is really represents the uplift that we've already got for the first four months. Y ou're right, I repeat, I haven't changed any of the assumptions for the next eight months at this point in time, even though it does feel like positive momentum. It does feel like the, you know, that what we're seeing is the rate hardening is a little bit ahead of the original forecast assumption, but we haven't yet said we expect to see that through the next eight months.
We're going to hold fire on that one and continue to think that by the time we get to the half year and address it in February as to where we think we'll be for the rest of the financial year. J ust a little bit too early for us to— As you know us, we'd rather-
We'd rather-
Say it first then.
We'd rather give you something you can bank rather than something that's up in the sky that you may not get. Kieran, we've been, for the decade we've been in publicly listed, we've been conservative, so that if we give you numbers, you can rely upon those numbers.
Sure. J ust on the rate momentum, do you mind just giving us a feel for where that is averaging? I know it's a lot of different classes and commercial and retail-
Yeah.
But maybe just broadly on commercial.
We're not seeing any drop-off or any indications from any of the insurers we work with in the Australian market and internationally, where SME business in Australia is not going to have to go up between 7.5% and 15%.
Our guidance was 7.5-10, and overall, we're ahead of that at this point.
We're slightly ahead.
Certainly out of double digits.
Yeah.
Okay, that's great. Thanks, guys.
There's a couple of sectors, Kieran. I mean, D&O,
Yeah
... Is, is dropping. A s I've said in the past, our D&O went from just under AUD 700,000 to AUD 5 million, and it's come back to just under AUD 3 million. O n one hand, you could say, "Well, it's collapsed." On the other hand, you might say AUD 3 million is an exorbitant price for something you used to pay nearly AUD 700,000 for. T hat's a small sector of the market from that point of view. I mean, the impact of the hail that's just hit Queensland, which is allegedly gonna cost somewhere between AUD 4 billion and AUD 5 billion. Still, the insurers still keep getting hit with weather events in Australia.
That doesn't allow them to, firstly, get, buy their insurance any cheaper, and secondly, allow their attritional claims to drop off. I t's not, it's not an easy market to operate, risk profiling in at the moment.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Andrei Stadnik, from MS. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Just want to ask around the in-house claims team you mentioned that Sure run. How do they go about, you know, pricing that? Because the EBITDA margin that the business seems to be achieving is actually in line with your existing agencies. H ow do they, you know, manage to run that in-house claims team and still achieve about a 50% EBITDA margin?
Very efficiently with systems that allow expedition of claims rather than the ability to be held up. M ost issues in claims are: the systems are antiquated, and the systems are odious in terms of how you process. T heir claims system, firstly, their efficacy in how they can get contractors. They're aligned with contractors that are in local areas, that are willing to act quickly. S econdly, their digital analysis of how they are actually gonna put process into a claim is far ahead of lots of things that we've seen. Plus, they have a delegated authority to work on behalf of the insurers, so they're not going backwards to an insurer, backwards to a loss assessor, backwards to a subcontractor.
The efficiency is just absolutely amazing. In fact, we have that efficiency in a couple of our underwriting agencies, and this one's as efficient, if not more efficient than what we've got. W hen you see we get we have high margins, it's usually because we actually handle the claims, and we handle them more efficiently than what a standard insurer would be able to do that.
Thank you. H ow should we think about the interaction with the Queensland cyclone pool, in terms of premium growth outlook from here? Like, for example, if there were any changes to make the Queensland cyclone pool smaller or bigger, you know, how would that interact or impact the growth in Sure?
Firstly, I don't think that's a consideration at the moment because the pool's in its first year of operating, and I don't think... The only way you would expand it, it's a sovereign fund, so it's backed. It doesn't have capital allocated per se. It's got the backing of the sovereign balance sheet of the Australian government behind it. I f you think about that, what the only thing that could happen to the pool is it could become restrictive, more restrictive in the cover it gives, or in fact, the reverse, maybe expanding the cover but beyond. I wouldn't want to speak for government, I'm sure Stephen Jones would be very unhappy if you heard me say things like this.
But the government may say that, "Hey, the pool's been so effective, maybe we need to extend that past named cyclones, and, and put it into maybe, maybe catastrophic events," maybe along the lines of what the EQC is, and, EQC is over in New Zealand. I think, any, any effect like that is, it's infancy days for the pool. It's in its initial iteration. I'm sure that it'll have various iterations over the life of this, as it develops itself.
But what we're seeing across portfolios we've got in Queensland is, we're seeing some jurisdictions are being able to get an 8% reduction, which might seem like a lot, but when you understand the loading that's been going on to those areas, then eight percent conservative. Other areas get down as low as two or 2.5%. O verall, we think that there could be about 2.5%-3% reduction in renewal pricing in some areas of Queensland.
... Thank you. If I can make a last third question. You mentioned that, I think there are three insurance capital partners back in Sure-
Yeah, we actually have seven participants who want to write that business. W e've got three at the moment, and we're rejigging that to give a bigger range of people that want to write in that area. They've looked at our algorithmic approach to it. They've looked at the efficiency of the claims, the heritage of the business over the last four years, and we're getting capital that wants to be deployed along the lines of the underwriting discipline that we've got and the claims efficiency we've got. W e have more participants that want to participate in this than what we have capacity for to place at the moment.
Which gives us the ability to be able to expand the GWP when we want, by bringing further capacity providers into the equation.
Thank you. Yeah, that was gonna be my question. Y eah, you're broadening the backing. Thank you so much.
Yep. Yep.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Julian Braganza from Goldman Sachs. Please, go ahead.
Good morning, guys. Just a first question, just on the multiple. Feels like you're effectively paying 10.333x FY 2025, which includes much of the growth there. Can you just comment briefly on how you got comfortable with the multiple that was used, and how it compares with market multiples more broadly?
I think the first thing to say is that for a high growth business and a high, you know, good size EBITDA business, you know, we have seen it pay recently 12.5-13.5x. I t's obviously a step back from that. T hat really reflects the fact that it is an agency as opposed to a broker. I t's, I think it's basically what I call a fair price for the, for the asset, you know, done under standard tender conditions. The reason for FY 2025 is 'cause it is high growth business, and obviously, the vendor would want to continue to see that, if they can keep growing the business, they get more out of it.
Though, would have to be a sale condition, but it actually gives us a risk mitigate if the FY 25 doesn't come through. W e thought it was, in the end, you know, a fair price for the purchaser and seller. W e're happy with the price.
Okay, great. Thanks. T hen just on the cost out synergies, you haven't alluded to any targets there, but I'd just be interested in anything that can be achieved with integrating this into the broader Steadfast franchise. H as anything been reflected in the EPS accretion calc?
I mean, there would be no cost out on their current operating structure. It's very efficient, and it produces great numbers. Y ou wouldn't be wanting to, in any way, interfere with the very successful product that's been developed over the last four years, and we've gone through. What it does give us, though, is that without having to extend, a huge amount of, extra FTE, we can pick up that system, and we can put it into other geographies. B y integrating it into our Client Trading Platform, it opens up to the entire Australian market on a digital platform that requires nothing more than digital interaction between the broker, their client, and the ultimate capital provider, the insurers.
Okay, great. T hen just got a quick one here, just on profit shares. Is there any profit share elements in terms of just-
Yes.
The current-
Yeah. Yep. Yeah, specifically, yeah, all agencies have profit share arrangements contained within their binders, and this is no different. I f you think about the profit shares, okay, the profit shares are predicated upon a ratio which gives a profit back to the insurer for the deployed capital they've got, and an incentive for the deployment of that capital to share in any excesses that come through. Y es, it is a profit share business, as are all our agencies. In most instances, the loss ratios over the past few years, because of the weather events, has made it very difficult to get profit shares.
But if you look at the defensive way of this business and how it's disciplinedly underwritten and how its algorithmic analysis of risk protocols are deployed to give a profit back to the insurer, then ipso facto, that means that there's chances of getting a profit share are also quite high because of the way the risk profile is put together about what they write.
Okay, thanks. I might just squeeze in one last one in the interest of time. Just in terms of understanding the client mix, obviously, you mentioned home and content, presumably high net worth vis-à-vis SME. I'm just interested in sort of trying to triangulate that as well in relation to the comment you made around retention being 85% and an appropriate measure just for that. J ust be interested in understanding the client mix. Thanks.
Yes. It's not really necessarily based on, you know, the value of the home or anything like that. It's really more what you call geographical and thinking through what are the areas that they really are prepared to write risk on versus not write risk on and then go from there. T hey'll take inquiries through the direct call center that they got or their website or through the broker channel. It's more about that, the risk selection for them. That's the key.
Cheers. Thanks so much, guys.
Thank you.
... Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Hudson from MST. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning, gentlemen. Just a couple of quick questions. Firstly, can you remind me how much sort of home and contents GWP you currently write across the sort of broader network?
Okay, we write about 7% of the GWP is house and is home and contents. Maybe about 8%, Scott.
Okay. T hen, I guess, the geographic expansion, that's just about replicating the algorithm in different markets?
Yeah, well, we'll probably-
Is that right?
We'll probably come to boring markets like Adelaide, you know, and people like you can take advantage of that down there by getting a better, a better price for your things or, and stuff like that.
He's in Sydney.
You're in Sydney now, but aren't you? I've forgotten there. Well, if you think about it, there'll be parts of Sydney that will get, will benefit from it. I t's, it's -- we're able to uplift it to any geography, overlay our rating structure, and decide what areas we want to write in that, and be competitive and get a good strike rate in those areas. Yeah.
Okay. T hen, I guess, lastly, any particular factors behind, I guess, management choosing you as the preferred bidder in the tender, or was it all down to pricing?
I think that they looked... I wouldn't hope to speak on their behalf, but I think they looked for somebody that understood certainly MGA distribution in Australia, that had a track record of success in that area, and that had the ability to be able to move into other geographies around Australia, without having to reinvent the wheel. I mean, we're all over Australia. We've got a digital platform that has tentacles over Australia and New Zealand.
So if you're looking to say, "Well, we want to stay in this business," and they do, they want to have 30% of the equity in it, then you'd have to look at us as a potential acquirer based on our status in the industry and the way we conduct ourselves and the way we've gone about building our distribution network. I f you were then to look at some others in the industry, they would probably be buying this business to get hold of their expertise, and then looking how they would deploy it. We believe that the ability to deploy their expertise is firstly cost-negative for us in many ways.
I think the fact that the put and call option has been to be executed as a share for share swap. I think gives you an indication of the alignment that both Steadfast and Sure have of being comfortable one with the other, that we're willing to be wanting to be partners in that way. That they're excited about the Steadfast journey, and we're excited about what they can bring to Steadfast.
Understood. Thanks very much.
Thanks, Scott.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Oliver, Colan from EMP Financial Group. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just first one, on Regional Queensland, you mentioned that, you know, there are some areas that you don't write, so obviously like Lockyer Valley. It's interesting, I went on the website, tried to do it, and it wouldn't write. T hat's a clear, you know, demonstration of that. H ow much of the Regional Queensland market doesn't the business write risk in?
About 18%.
Okay.
They're mostly the areas that should be fixed by mitigation rather than risk transfer. That if mitigation was to take place and correctly installed, then you'd be able to insure those areas as well. I think you're hearing greatly, and the Federal Financial Services Minister just did a trip with the major insurers in Australia to the reinsurance markets of the world and came back with the same philosophy, that we cannot expect insurers to insure in areas where there are going to definitely be claims. We have to be grown up about that and admit that we have to do risk mitigation in those areas to allow a probability factor of it may not have a disastrous claim, but it could have a disastrous claim.
Where you've got, and the Lockyer Valley is an example, where, where you've got, this will happen if this occurs, it's very difficult to insure because insurance is a probability factor, not a definitive factor. I f you tell me you want to insure your car, but next Wednesday you're gonna burn it to the ground, I can't insure it. I f you tell me you want to insure your car and, and you, and I've got 10,000 cars insured, the probability factors allows me to insure those 10,000 cars. I t's very similar to Far North Queensland. There are some areas of Far North Queensland that are uninsurable because of the probability factor being not maybe we'll have a claim, but you will have a claim, and that's where mitigation will come into play. B usinesses like this support the fact of that.
If mitigation is put in place, then we'll come in and we'll insure those areas.
Yeah. Okay, perfect. Thanks. J ust, I may have missed it, so apologies if you've already answered this question, but the thinking on the timing of entry into areas outside of regional Queensland by Sure Insurance, and does the FY 2024 and 2025 forecast include any geographic expansion, or is that only, you know, their current area of operations?
... It doesn't include any anything for that whatsoever, and that program is something that we'll develop with them over the course of the next 12 months. Y eah, no, that, no, nothing's predicated in those turnover. This is just prima facie, the current exposure that we expect to deploy into Queensland.
Okay, perfect. S orry, just a last question from me, just to clarify. You mentioned in seven underwriters. Was that in addition to the three that are already writing risk, or is that inclusion of those three?
No, that's an expansive expansion from 3 to 7.
Okay, so an additional four?
Yeah.
Yeah. Okay, perfect. Thanks. Appreciate it.
Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Jason Palmer, from Taylor Col- sorry, Taylor Collison. Please go ahead.
Sorry, Jason, I got you and Scott confused a minute ago. I was talking about you. We might even be able to insure properties down in Adelaide at a good price.
Wonderful. Look forward to it. Thanks for your time. Just one question, because a lot of them have been answered. J ust in respect of the EBITDA margin expansion in 2025, I'm just trying to understand. I mean, there was a bit of investment that might have gone into the business in 2023, possibly, or maybe profit shares weren't paid. Just trying to understand whether the cost base is now set for a certain turnover level and when the next level of reinvestment will be needed in this business.
Yeah, there's certainly some leverage that you are getting, Jason, on the current cost base that flows through to that expanding margin. Like most agencies, to think that you set your IT and never deal with it ever again is probably a false assumption. T here will always be, you know, increased capability, and of course, we'll want to spend some money on connecting it through to our SCTP, for instance, as well. T here will be, you know, some spend that you've got to factor in for that. I t is really like all our agencies, there is a point at which you can get that increased margin that come from leveraging that base infrastructure that you've got, and that's what you're seeing here.
Yeah, okay. If I can just put in one more question, if I can. Just around the distribution of this business across your network and just understanding the capabilities that Steadfast can offer there. I mean, if it's 7% of the GWPs, home and contents, and it's probably attached to, you know, business coverage that you're doing already on behalf of a client, I'm trying to understand sort of how you distribute this product across your network.
The best way to distribute it is via the Client Trading Platform, without a doubt, because this is a digital solution. It's a solution that needs to be able to be modified all the time, so they're monitoring what they're doing and the efficiencies they're getting out of doing it. I t'll definitely be a programmed analysis of jurisdictions, testing it electronically, and then running it out into the Client Trading Platform.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Andrew Buncombe, from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks very much for taking my questions. Just a couple from me, please. The first one, given that North Queensland has similar natural catastrophe risks to different parts of the US, is there actually a US rollout angle here from this acquisition? Thanks.
Not at the moment.
Okay, perfect.
Yeah.
The next one is in relation to Strata. You know, obviously, Strata is part of the new appetite for this agency. Is this acquisition in any way preempting any changes to CHU's appetite under QBE's new arrangement next year? Thanks.
No.
Perfect. T hen, just finally, in terms of slide 13, just can you give us a bit of color? Did this agency actually earn any profit share revenue in FY 23, please?
Yes, they did. That's part of the power of the fact that they got this really great risk selection and underlying results. O bviously, the quantum and the calculation process, it's commercially sensitive, as you can imagine, so we don't particularly disclose that component.
Of course, that makes sense. T hen just maybe a very quick final one, just in relation to slide twenty-three. In relation to the additional AUD 120 million debt ceiling, can you give us some color on what additional charges you will need to pay for having that sitting there? Thanks.
So at the moment, that accordion facility sits there. There is no actual fee for having that accordion facility there. I t's only a structure that I start paying anything on if I were to activate it. I t's a lovely buffer to have there at the right time if I needed it.
Perfect. That's it from me. Thank you for your time.
Pleasure.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand it back to Mr. Kelly for closing remarks.
Okay. Thanks, everybody, for participating. We're very excited about this particular move. It's something we've been watching for some time, and we think it's going to be fantastic for the consumers in North Queensland and ultimately the consumers around Australia. It allows another provider in the house market to actually come in at a cost structure to operate considerably less than the major insurers operate under. T hanks for your time. I appreciate your interest in what we've done today. Thanks very much.