Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Steadfast Group Limited First Half 2024 Interim Results. All participants are in listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Robert Kelly, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much, and welcome, everybody. Thanks for your time and spending a few minutes with us this morning. I'll refer you to page four of the pack, if I may. I guess that's really just our reaffirmation that what we said we'd do in 2013, we have continued to do. We've executed what we said we would execute, and that's just really basically nine graphs to show you our position statement. So I won't bore you by reading them in detail. It's very clear, although sometimes we like to read them in detail because it just convinces us that we're on the right track in what we said we'd do for the market.
So going over to page five, this reflects, I guess, the confidence that we've got in the way we execute everything we do in terms of acquisitions and running the businesses. And I think when you can get the broking EBITDA up by 23.1% and the underwriting agencies up by 11.8%, it really is quite compounding on the business that we've done over the years. So I know, I know it looks easy, but it's not easy doing that. Now, our intricate work we do on both those sections of our revenue is a testament to the incredible people that work in the network and also the interaction between our executives and the invested companies that we operate within.
Our acquisition growth, our EPS accretion was net cost of AUD 331.7 million that we did. So we're on target to get rid of our trapped capital, AUD 280 million that we did. Our future availability is just under AUD 400 million in capacity that Stephen goes... Plus our free cash. Remember, we convert profit to cash all the time. On the right-hand side there, it's just a little precis. EBITDA up 21.4% to AUD 229 million, NPATA up 17.5% to AUD 104 million. NPATA up 16.9% to AUD 130 million. The diluted EPS, NPATA is +12.2% to AUD 0.102.
And then the interim dividend up 12.5% to 6.75 cents. The statutory earnings reflected from AUD 84 million up to AUD 100.4 million. So, I mean, we're quite proud of those numbers. But and I always reflect on when we give guidance and then upgrade guidance, and then we meet that, how we sit around as an executive running this business and say we've been successful for the shareholders. And so if you go to page six, this is our Trapped Capital. We have a target of AUD 280 million for FY 2024. And it's interesting that we completed 28 acquisitions, including Sure.
The Sure acquisitions we did, Steve and I, I guess, about one month in these figures of turnover for Sure. If, as you can see there, the acquisition cost was 331, that I mentioned on the prior page, million, and the EBITDA is worth 14.4 and 18.5 quite respectively. In just going through the second half of 2024, we've done three completed acquisitions. As you can see, AUD 3 million EBITDA, 12 term sheets, and we're in due diligence for that, for AUD 6.3 million. We've got a further 16 sheets we're in negotiation with, but not into due diligence, for AUD 2.7 million, and another 28 opportunities totaling about AUD 22.4 million.
So the runway is still strong and robust from that point of view. So on the right-hand side, AUD 215 million of Trapped Capital completed year to date, and AUD 312 million Trapped Capital pipeline in opportunities to come. So remember, our cash, as I said, on the other side, just under AUD 400 million, at AUD 378 million, plus free cash as it comes through, and we convert profit to cash straightaway. On page seven, if you think about, that's quite a... This is quite a good analysis of where we've gone and what we've looked at. If you look at FY 2013, we did some acquisitions prior to the float.
The float came, of course, in the FY 2014 year, and then you see, we absorbed what we did there through 2016 and 2017. Eighteen, we started to move into an area of acquisition. And again, if you look at the line, we always seem to be able to do between AUD 90 million and AUD 120 million worth of acquisitions. And in FY 2021, it started to look like there was a lot coming, and in FY 2022 and 2023, as you can see, we had outstanding results, and then that leads on to... For the first half of FY 2024.
So our strategy that we put into the market back in 2013, about we will be an acquirer of businesses within the network, we'll be an acquirer of businesses and maker of underwriting agencies, is certainly paying dividends for us. And the track record there shows we only work on accretive growth in acquisitions, and that growth then reflects in increased profitability, which we pay back to you by way of dividends. So if you go to page eight, this is a nice snapshot of where we were in 2013 and where we are for calendar year 2023. It's an exciting, I think, a couple of bar charts, pie charts there.
If you look at the one on the left, we purchased basically AUD 1 billion worth of EBITDA with those equity brokers, and we had, I'm sorry, AUD 1 billion worth of sales in those equity brokers, and that's by 30. Would've been nice to have purchased AUD 1 million earlier, but it might have been a little bit more than the AUD 334 million we spent, so I'll reflect a bit more on that, Stephen. The network was worth AUD 3.9 billion, and on floating, we control AUD 1 billion of it. If you then go to the one on the right side, okay, and you look at it now, it's AUD 12.4 billion, so to calendar year 2023.
This is really, it's really interesting that we control now AUD 6 billion in the 7% slice of the pie down the bottom, our trapped capital acquisitions bringing another 7%. The one on the left-hand side shows that there's still AUD 6.4 billion worth of sales that we do that are part of our network, rely upon us for all the services we give. It's mostly, mostly use our software, and that there is still the runway that we've got in terms of the opportunity to buy further into the network. We're nowhere near the end of our runway. One could argue we're part, halfway through our journey, and so the potential for further acquisition still sits within that framework.
Okay, page nine of the pack there. This is the insurance broking, and I think it's really important to just have a look at the sales and the first and second periods. So you as you can see, each year, we get control of, in the network, more GWP, and indeed, ipso facto, we get, when we acquire a percentage of that, a complete control by our equity participation. But the network GWP grew 14.3%, okay? And that's basically 10.6% organic growth. We got about 3% volume growth, which is good in a hard market, and still we run at about 85% commercial and 15% retail.
The interesting factor on that, those who've followed us over the years will understand that when we first did our data analysis back in June 1999, when we were building our data warehouse, that it was 4% retail. And during the period from 2013 to now, with all of the direct business coming into the Australian market and that everybody's saying that people will buy business from the internet, the reality is we've gone from 4% to 15%, so people still wanna have somebody to talk to. So equity brokers underlying EBITDA of AUD 185.9 billion, up 23.1%.
And then on the right-hand side, gives you a bit of an analysis, 10.6% organic growth, 2.5% of the growth comes out of the AR Network. They're a very valuable addition over the past two decades to the Australian sales of general insurance in Australia, and new brokers put 1.2%, total growth, 14.3%. So operational highlights there, you can see there's 330 Australian brokers, 66 brokers in New Zealand, 29 brokers in Singapore. And if you then have a look at the 18 new equity holdings, including bolt-ons. Bolt-ons have stepped down.
So, and we gloss over that a little bit, but the reality is we're very willing, if there are very operative people working in our underwriting agencies or our brokers, and we think that they they'd be good to be participants in equity, we're happy to sell down some equity to them because in some ways, it's a lock-in for their expertise to continue. And also, it's a unique way sometimes to allow people, ordinary people that are in working positions to gain a position, do all their work, get their wages, get their bonuses, but have the dividend flow pay off their equity. So the Client Trading Platform, just under AUD 700 million for the first half, it's on track, it's on track. It's running a rolling twelve or AUD 1.3 billion.
It should crack AUD 1.4 billion this year. So, it's... Yeah, I know, it's been a long journey, but when you get 24% uplift in period to period, that shows the actual efficiencies that's created by using it, and the fact that when people start using, they do not stop using it. If you then look - go to page 10, which is the underwriting agencies, the first half, up 8.5% to AUD 1.1 billion. That should project out to probably AUD 2.75 billion at the moment, although with the increasing cost of insurance, I wouldn't be surprised to see that clip up towards the AUD 3 billion mark for the full 12 months. That plenty of opportunities for us.
Most of our increase in GWPs is price, but also accelerated by volume as well. Property pricing still remains long, and our capacity constraints in certain lines that the insurers are still hesitant to write, and it means that our expertise in underwriting will attract people to come. So underlying EBITDA AUD 91 million, just under AUD 92 million to AUD 2 million, up 11.8%. The bar chart shows you our growth since FY 2014, and on the right-hand side, it's nice to have 6.2% organic growth, 2.3% acquisition growth, giving you 8.5% total growth. We've operationally still continue to roll out our robotics.
It's a slow job because we're not just running out and doing it, but wherever we implement a robotic solution, it creates a huge efficiency within the underwriting agency and gets rid of mundane process. We also continue, and this is something that I think is overlooked by a lot, you know, the relationship with CHU and QBE goes back a long time. CHU's been operating for 40 years, and we always want to align our desires for growth with the insurer's desire for profit. So we don't consider we are a sales conduit in our MGAs. We consider we have a partnership with a capital provider, and then we have to provide service to attract people to come to us, but more importantly, a profitable line for the insurers to go.
So my premium rates, of course, have meant that we've gained market share. The interesting part of we participate across four main lines with the Client Trading Platform. They're ever-growing: commercial property, strata, liability, professional indemnity. And also, the other part that goes hand in hand with the loss ratio controls that we do to make sure we give a return to the insurer is our in-house data warehouse; it's becoming a bit of an envy of the market. We've.
I, in some sectors, we have the best data analytics that anybody's got over property, and we are continually asked, and we supply to the insurers, information to give them guidance on what they're securing when they quote, that their pricing mechanisms, what the market's doing in that area, and also the risks that are being put to brokers to go for. Also, the specialty agencies that we've got with over at least 100 niche products, means that our expert underwriters in that area are very well-received by the broker network. And of course, their expertise is demonstrated in continuing support by insurers, because loss ratios are in line with what their expectations.
In terms of that, the ability to uplift four or five of those MGAs into the U.S. is on our radar and something that we will be working on to see the suitability of doing it. So let's go to page 11. Just a bit of an operating update. The reinsurance market rates still increased. There seems to be stability coming into the reinsurance market. And when I mean stability, I think the erratic increases that we saw over the past couple of years seem to have waned, unless there's a real reason to have those, to have an increase or there's a section that needs rectification. And that's still written by poor loss ratio.
So, but interestingly, we're still not seeing—and there's plenty of money in the capital markets, we're not seeing people putting up their hand and bringing new and fresh capital as we've seen in other times when premiums have been on the rise. So I guess the other thing is, on the from reinsurance side, the impact of the recent cyclones and the Cyclone Pool is yet to see reach fruition. I mean, the initial thoughts on the first one was that maybe 10% of the wind claims would be picked up by the cyclone, but very few of the water claims will be picked up. So that's a watch and see, and I think the time delay of 48 hours will certainly come under pressure.
It the second cyclone that hit the floodwaters had just come through from the first one. So I think that I wouldn't like to be a government that says, "We put in the Cyclone Pool. We hey, we didn't have to pay many claims out, and hey, look, we made a lot of money out of the pool." So I think this is a watch and see to see what occurs. We still keep our customer advocacy really under check, and we've just done that recently over the last few months in terms of the remuneration that we take for householders' insurance. In fact, we led the market going back about two years with the high-end market by product that we've got of Mansions, by saying, "You know what?
It can't sustain a large commission because it's a huge premium pool." So brokers that initially were hesitant to adopt that, but I must say, last year was the best year Mansions has ever had, with a great increase in people going that way. So we work with the insurers to say, "There is commercial pressure..." "There is a consumer pressure on the pricing of..." When you're running a 103% loss ratio on householders, you've got to keep jacking the price up. If you think about the price differential, we were making, perhaps four or five years ago, out of the normal householders, maybe AUD 120, and last year, we probably made on average AUD 210.
So the amount of commission that was being made probably wasn't really reflecting the service that the consumer expected to get for that price. So we've come to a realization that by bringing back a bit of that commission, it will slow the consumer's price increases, and in reality, have very little effect on our revenue streams. Also, the new valuation tool, iV aluate Properly has been a great free addition to our ability to be able to tell people, "Hey, you're greatly underinsured, and at the time of claim, you may have if you follow our valuation protocols, we will not have problems with contribution." Okay. The code of conduct that we rolled out was slightly more aggressive than what NIBA rolled out.
We're now seeing that being implemented. We're carrying out audits on it, and it's totally in line with government, totally in line with the regulators, and very much in line with what the consumer expects to get from the intermediary. So we're very happy with that. Just on the technology, part of the IBA purchase was from insurance.com.au. We've moved that business into a standalone business. We've put one of the excellent fellows that was in IBA running it, and I'm pleased to say that it's starting to have its own life and its own growth patterns, and people are coming to us offering us product lines go through. So what's that space over the next two or three years?
It's a great asset, and it's growing. And we continue, of course, on the technology side, to accelerate the product lines that we've got in the Client Trading Platform. More and more digital transactions are gaining momentum, and the reality is, there is such a broad amount of our business that we do that can be digitally transacted, much more efficient to the clients and much more efficient to the broker. In the international strategy that we've been talking about over the last couple of years, it's implemented. We did the acquisition. We were fortunate to get a team that we built up over the last 12 months, ready for that.
So that was headed up by Samantha Hollman, our used to be the CRO, and freeing herself up to do the international was because we were able to get Nigel Fitzgerald to come on board. And the difference he's making to the company at the moment has been quite outstanding, and a realignment of what we're doing, and the ability to look at this business as to where it is at the moment through a fresh pair of eyes, is really making a nice stimulus contained within the executive team. So the international team got Emma McKeever, who worked very closely as shadowing Stephen.
And, as is Stephen's way he does business, he always makes sure there's people that work under him are trained up to the performance that he expects. And that would... That allowed her to come in to be CSO of the international. And we got Nick McKeever to come on board for, who was vastly experienced, of 20-odd years, working in the US market, Australian, an Australian. So that team set, it doesn't impede any of our operating structures in Australia, and they're free to do whatever they want to do there and build the ISU agency in America. So our work on the ISU agency is constant. We're working with them almost every day, alongside them, not over the top of them.
So the strategy that Samantha Hollman set is being implemented, and almost every day, they're in contact. In fact, it's amazing how seamlessly that's worked since we did it. So the acquisition of our footprint in America is underway. It's been seamless. What we've found has been terrific. The people have worked well with us. The network over the whole of the U.S. that participate in ISU are really keen for what we can bring to the table, so it's pretty fun from that point of view. Acquisitions, we completed Sure gave us a footprint in the North Queensland, but also an algorithmic view to risk that we can take around other parts of Australia.
And this allowed us to have a small insurance company type operation with somebody else's capital and to finitely look at risk on an individual basis and know what we can and can't write. So that's been very successful since we put it out there. And then, of course, we've executed trapped capital. It's what we do. It's not new. We do our own DD , we do our own legal. It's a fairly slick team who works very hard to do that. Well, on the environmental side, we work very carefully on our ESG. We want to work towards net zero emissions, where we're now building a system so that we can now flow what we're going to do through to the network.
Interestingly, when, if I'd have said this to the network 18 months ago, they would have laughed at us. Now, we're actually getting people saying, "We're being asked about our ESG. What are we doing for society? What are we helping them?" So amazingly, we were probably ahead of the game when we built that, but that's the way it goes. Just on reflection, the WGEA report came out yesterday. It's interesting. I noticed that there was a 15% pay gap for us in the insurance sector. We did very, very well from that point of view. Honestly, I along with the HR division struggle with this because we don't advertise a job with a girl price and a boy price.
We advertise a job with what we pay, whoever gets the job. So we continue to work on that, and our gender balance has been pretty good in this organization. So if we just go over to page 12, that's our InsurTech page. Okay, as we say, just under AUD 700 million through the client's trading platform, 23.8% growth, on. And this year, are currently rolling short of AUD 1.3 billion, we'll probably hit the AUD 1.4 billion note. There on the left-hand side, you know, 216 brokers on INSIGHT. Unbelievable that we built a system with nearly 6,600 users. I mean, and a sustainable system.
Ask anybody in the network, ask anybody, how does INSIGHT work and the Client Trading Platform work? You will not get a bad reply. You'll only get, "This is. This solves the problem." So we continue to develop the Client Trading Platform. It's a very difficult job to do because of the back offices of the insurers, but we work with them. We understand their problems, and more and more insurers are coming to us wanting a digital solution and realizing that the cost of bums on seats, so to speak, is much better if you can have it digitally transferred. On the right, the graph there shows the growth of the Client Trading Platform. We're very proud of that.
I did have many times where we met with people who said, "It's a bit slow." Well, it's nearly AUD 1.4 billion now. It ain't slow anymore. It's growing all the time. So the sweet shot before I hand over to Stephen to go through the detail of the financials, page 13, interim dividend up 12.5%. We aim to give 75% of our net cost back, and we aim to... Our aim is to continue making that accreted, okay? So ex-dividend date's the fourth of March, dividend paid on the twenty-eighth of March. Our job is to use the capital that the people invest in us to produce a good dividend flow and be reliable in the figures we put forward.
I'll keep quiet now till we get back to the outlook and hand you over to Stephen, so.
Thanks, Rob. So going to Slide 15. We'll start with the headline underlying results here for the first half. It's another strong half, strong uplift in profits. You'll see the revenue there, AUD 790 million, up 19.3%. The underlying EBITDA up 21.3%, with a 50 basis point improvement in the margins from 28.5% to 29%. Underlying NPAT up 17.5%. Underlying earnings per share on NPATA basis up 12.2%. Cash earnings, the NPATA was up 16.9%, and cash EPS up 11.7%. But some of the big picture takeaway from these results, the hard market has continued without abatement through this half, driving the revenue increases across the group.
We've had the impacts of interest rate benefits dialing up our revenue and our EBITDA, and of course, it gets squared up in the NPATA when you dial up the increased cost of funding. Of course, the prior half actually had the full benefit of AUD 150 million fixed interest rate hedge, which we don't have in this particular half for 2024. The equity raise, it increases our share count, of course. We took the extra monies on the SPP, on the retail element in December. That'll actually have about a 1% dilutive impact on EPS until, of course, we put that additional cash to work. In November 2023, we upgraded our guidance to the market on the back of the good organic growth for the 4 months to October 2023, alongside the impact of the Sure acquisition and that capital raise.
The results to December, which is really the November and December since then, is essentially trading in line with our upgraded guidance statement we gave you. Before we move on, I'm just gonna quickly comment about the seasonality. We actually now expect to have a slightly higher skew towards the second half. We were originally expecting about a 44-56. That's what I mentioned six months ago. That's now really skewed to about a 53-57 on the NPAT line. Two main factors: first of all, being the acquisition of ISU in America. Its earning streams are all second half biased, so you don't get any contribution of first half. It all goes into the second half.
And secondly, of course, is the fact that we have only one month of Sure's results in the first half, but we get a full six months in the second half. So we're actually not changing our upgraded guidance statement. We fully expect to, to be within that realm. We will, of course, review the third quarter and update if we need to at that point. Slide 16 takes you through the reconciliation of how we get from the statutory through the underlying type of numbers. As per the past, we remove any change in valuation on Johns Lyng shares. In this case, we removed a $3.3 million profit in the first half. The bulk of the other reconciliation items really relate to the, the final settlement of the deferred earn outs.
And you see that we removed AUD 11.6 million, where we paid more for businesses because their profits for those businesses were higher, and we had AUD 2.4 million going the other way, where we paid less than what we first anticipated. Other than that, there's just very, very minor changes. Slide 17 really seeks to then break down our growth, as we always do, between the two limbs of organic growth and acquisition growth. The organic growth has been generated through a combination of factors. Yes, we've got the continued hard market condition. As Rob's mentioned, the price increases, circa 8%, volume increases maybe 3% across the equity brokers, in line with our forecast assumptions.
The stronger growth than anticipated, actually, in our agencies, their revenue growth was ahead of budget, which helped mitigate the cost increases we knew were coming, and we advised were coming through into this first half. And of course, we, we benefit from the interest rate increases in our trust accounts, our operating bank accounts. That gives you about AUD 14 million worth of EBITDA growth, just, alone. So the acquisitions continued in the first half 2024, AUD 183 million at—for the first half. That's now up to AUD 215 million as of today. Our target was AUD 280 million. We continue to project that we will achieve that particular target, so we're not changing that as an assumption.
The actual acquisition multiples that we paid averaged, if you just exclude Sure for the moment, 9.85x. If you actually exclude America, the ISU acquisition, which we mentioned was 11x, the domestic acquisitions was actually about 8.8x. So that shows you where the market is at for the core, the SME-type segment. Slide 20. Sorry, Slide 18. This is where we show the broking results as if we owned 100% of them. We actually don't. We own 76% of the profits we show on this page, which is 100% of the network assets and 72% of pure broking. For the period, there was 13.3% of organic growth in revenue, which is, of course, that strong result from the hard market conditions continuing.
As you know, we're about 70% leveraged on commission, so the 8% GWP growth is really about 6% growth in our commission lines. You get another 3% or so from the volume, and another 3-ish% or so that you get from the interest received with the higher rates on our deposit. The cost increases were in line with our budget, and it... But I would say the trajectory, particularly on the price of labor, it's starting to moderate. We mentioned it was probably peaking about a year ago. Still relatively strong six months ago. Just starting to moderate a bit further, I suspect, at the moment.
And of course, we have the additional growth coming from the acquisitions that you see there, with that 7.2% on the bottom line coming through. The agencies, go to Slide 19. We own roughly 91% of the earnings you see on this page. Again, solid performances across the portfolio. The growth rate in the net revenue, that's our pull-through revenue, is actually 13.8%, which is actually continuing to exceed our forecast assumptions. Again, we keep saying it'll moderate a touch. It's still quite strong. We did mention additional resourcing across the portfolio, particularly our larger businesses, where we're putting in additional people on the claims and systems, et cetera. So that's why we have that organic growth rate of 8.2%.
And again, we're mindful of margins for the go-forward across all our businesses, as we think forward for 25. Slide 20 on the cash flow. We have, apart from taxation, where we had a catch-up, you'll see that all the profits again continue to come through. So just to prove that point, I've just shown you how the post-tax numbers across a 12-month period flows through from the NPATA that we've got. It's just, you'll see that there's a big increase in the tax as we squared up our statutory tax obligations from FY 2023 in this last half. If you go to the stat accounts, you'll see that we do all continue to break out the client trust account movement, the premium funding businesses that skews our numbers.
I suggest this is probably the best way to analyze our, our particular cash flow and how we see the, the profits come through as cash. Our debtor days continue to be, show no deterioration. Premium funding arrears continue to be below the pre-COVID levels, so another strong sign for the SME sector that we operate largely within. As you would know, our free cash flow continues to be invested into our ongoing acquisition activity. Going to our balance sheet, it got further strengthened by the SPP, that AUD 68 million. You'll see here, we have, not to be missed, that we actually reset our debt facilities back in August. We might have mentioned that to you before, AUD 860 million of facilities, which was AUD 660 million.
These facilities extend all the way through to November 28, as you'll see on the right-hand of the slide. As of today, we have AUD 378 million. We'll have, you know, circa 75 of that going on dividends at the end of the end of March. And we, of course, need to keep some aside for the Sure earn-out, because that'll need more than our free cash flow. So let's say there's a hundred that we keep in reserve for that, so there's still, beyond that, plenty of money we have for acquisitions. In fact, with the strength of the balance sheet, we could actually borrow another AUD 500 million on top of our facilities and still stay within our 30% ratio. So it's fair to say the next range of acquisitions will all be debt funded.
But having said that, we're proud to be conservative on the gearing and, given the economic environment with interest rates as they are. At which point, I'm going to hand back to Rob.
Thanks, Stephen. Yes, sir, it's always exciting. It is that what I've said is backed up by the facts of what you know, so thank you. I feel much better. If you go to page 23, this is... It's interesting from our own point of view. I often wonder, and I'm—I guess I'm just a commission salesman, so I kind of struggle here, why if we put out guidance, and we make guidance or we exceed guidance, that somebody says, "You failed in some area." I'd just like people to reflect that we run the business, we understand the business explicitly, and what we put out, we believe is what we can do. We put a range in to say it could be, as you can see it, EBITDA, AUD 520-AUD 530.
The reason we put a range is there may be some things that could come in that are not solidified at the moment that may impact it. So if we say underlying NPAT's gonna be between AUD 240 and AUD 250, and diluted EPS NPAT's gonna be between 11% and 16%, and underlying NPAT, NPATA is between AUD 290 and AUD 300, if we didn't reach those figures, we would consider that we had failed. If we reach those figures, we would consider that we've fully informed the market and achieved what we said, and that people have been able to rely on what we are. So that's our guidance as it goes forward. Just some people are gonna ask about Sure. They're gonna ask about ISU. Probably 4% uplift in our 2025 results from that.
That's for all our acquisitions we expect to do for the year.
Yes.
That's already baked into next year.
I mean, we're trying to be as clear and unequivocal, Stephen, aren't we, about what we're doing and where we're going? So that's what we're gonna do the run rate. We're coming almost into the last quarter. The first quarter is showing stability, and at least it looks good from our point of view to lead up to the 30th of June. So thank you for your time and your effort. I'll hand back, and we'll do some questions if you're in the mood.
Thank you. If you do wish to ask a question, please press star then one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before asking your question. Your first question today comes from Julian Braganza at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good mor
Julian, if you can hear us, we can't, we can't hear you.
My apologies. Sorry, the first questioner actually is from Andrew Buncombe from Macquarie. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just two from me, please. The first one is just on the U.S. At the AGM, you mentioned you're going to hold a number of town halls across the country to hear what the network wanted. Can you just give us an update on how far through the town halls you are, and what's the initial feedback on what you can help them with? Thanks.
Yeah, look, I think that's a good question. How are you, Andrew? ISU is a different way of doing business the way we do in Australia. So the reality is, as a master agency network, we need to be acutely aware of what the insurers under that expect of their master agents. And then we have to translate that into what we're doing for the agents that operate under the ISU banner at the moment, and what they're missing, and what we could do to help them. Now, and we have all the expertise to do that, and we've got the team to do it.
So when we, when we, did the first town halls, it was really interesting to see that, firstly, they were not, they were not suspicious of us, and secondly, they liked exactly what we've done. So what, what the team's done, quite, quite efficiently, is to interact with all the queries that they made from the last town hall we did, and to work on them from that point of view. And then, what's happening in the middle of March is that, Samantha Hollman and I, and myself, and their main executive that works with the carriers, we've got carrier meetings.
So actually, they all understand what we've done in Australia to look at what our sales are through that conduit, that insurer, and what our sales are in general, and to pick up where we can add value to them and add value for the agents contained underneath it. Now, we're working on that greatly, and what we then want to take after this meeting in March is to the conference that... Where's the conference, Sam? In Colorado Springs, and they get a huge turnout at that conference. They actually come. And we would probably want to, at that stage, Sam will probably pitch to them, "This is what we've discovered. This is what we've found. This is how we can enhance it.
By the way, our mantra in Australia was, none of us is as good as all of us. We feel that, well, that we now have to have a look at you globally and what you're doing within the States. And if we do this and that, then we're gonna get some value for the insurers, and that will reflect in revenue uplift for you.
Yep, that makes sense. Maybe just as a follow-up on that topic, you didn't once mention the M&A or M&A pipeline in the U.S. If you needed to put a timeframe on it, when do you think you'll start closing deals in the U.S. network? Thanks.
Sam, I mean, you've got Nick working on a couple of things, haven't you?
Yeah, absolutely. We've, we've actually already had interest from a couple of brokers from the ISU network who have spoken to us, and we are, we are working with them currently at the moment to have a look a couple of those things. We haven't officially launched the concept. These were people that are already receiving terms from other people. We are, however, investigating. We're doing member visits. We've started our first lot in a certain region of the US to educate them a little bit more and get some information back from them on what they might like out of the products and services we have. And of course, trapped capital then becomes an initial discussion with them that we'll be going into greater detail at the conference in three weeks.
Thanks, Sam.
Thank you.
And then just the final question from me, please. Can you give us an update on the CHU renegotiation? Thanks.
So, that's. We've been living a lot on that, Nigel. You've been working closely with them?
Yes. Andrew, the renewal date is in 2025. I think in one of your earlier correspondences, it was referenced as 2024, so we're well ahead of the renewal date, yeah, more than 12 months ahead. But we have engaged well with QBE. The interest and goodwill on both sides is paramount to move forward. These are very long-standing QBE businesses, well over 40 years in partnership, and the partnership's going extremely well from both parties' perspective at the moment. We hope to have more news on that in the coming quarters.
Yeah, we're really aiming. Thanks. Thanks, Nigel. We're really aiming to probably have this nailed by 31 March, Andrew, from that point of view. And I just reiterating Nigel's position, it's being done in very good spirit, youth spirit. I mean, I, I, I guess if I was to make a comment, we probably wouldn't want to get rid of QBE, although we've got many lining up saying, "If it doesn't work, talk to us," right? And conversely, you know, we put a big hole in their GWP. So we're a little joined at the hip here, and I think we're gonna get a... I mean, at the moment, we would say it's gonna be a pretty good renewal, and we should be very happy, and they should be very happy.
It is insurance, Andrew, as you know, and a month can be a long time.
Excellent. That's it from me. Thanks, team.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Julian Braganza at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. Just a couple of questions from me. Firstly, just following on from the initial discussion on the U.S. market, can you maybe just talk to the acquisition multiples that you're seeing there in your view, just where this fits relative to Australia?
Well, it's just, I didn't, I wouldn't, we were buying up a bit at our end.
I think the question is acquisition multiples in the U.S. versus-
Is that-
what we pay here.
What, what we pay here? I mean, yeah, okay, that's, that's what it is, isn't it, Julian? Is it the same or similar acquisition multiples over there? Was that the question?
That's correct, Rob. Yeah, that's it.
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I mean, we paid 11x to buy a few, and, and the, the couple that Sam's been looking at, they're, they're really around that figure at the moment. Yeah, the, I can't speak with authority on that because we haven't gotten to any final negotiations. And I think, I think it's probably, we're looking at, it'll probably wrap around out at around 12x, okay? It's not the 15x and 16x and 18x that the big stuff goes for. Remember, this is, this is, this is people that have all have only had an alternative to sell to private equity, where they've had to sell 100%.
We present a different proposition to say: Look, if you still wanna work in your businesses, we're happy to take a 50% and work with you along that line. So that's, that paradigm has never been offered to them in the past. When we offer that, it's been pretty conducive on them to say, "Well, what can you pay on that on that percentage ownership?" So we're really investigating from that point of view. So I think... What would you say, Sam? Do you think it'll settle around 12 or not?
Yeah, it's about 12x
Yeah
At the moment, an independent agent.
That's what we're getting interest at right at the moment, Julian.
Okay, great. That's clear. Thanks for that, Rob. And then secondly, just a more broader question in terms of the outlook. Can you just maybe talk to just some levers within your business that can help support organic EBITDA growth, particularly in an environment where you're perhaps starting to see premium rate increases moderate, starting to moderate, and also maybe interest rate benefit you've had over the last 12 months, perhaps starting to come off? So just what levers do you have in your business to manage some of the, that pressure? Yeah.
I think that's something that Nigel's been working on quite clearly over his period of time. So, I mean, you might explain how we're just going about implementing it. Well, I guess implementing is a bit strong, but we view there will be a plateau. I don't know when that'll be. It might be 18 months away, 2 years away. But when that plateau hits, Nigel, you-
Yeah, no, this is something that we work on almost as a BAU, continually looking at how we can improve our organic growth. Obviously, we're a very entrepreneurial organization, and inorganic growth is a huge part of our recognized DNA. But we've been working consistently on looking at our existing businesses and our existing assets and how we mature those to reaching their full potential. So we're actively working with all of our businesses around organic customer and client growth, and using that as a key indicator to our strategic direction and go forward measures. And then we're also looking at all of our assets that we have, such as SCTP, such as the Risk Group, such as INSIGHT. And we still have a lot of available runway in all of those areas to improve our strategic penetration.
I think you could picture us as dually focused on both continuing to be good at disciplined inorganic growth and heavily focused on how we grow organically with our existing businesses and assets.
Yeah. Well, I mean, we know a lot about these businesses, and we know through our benchmarking, Julian, where there are gaps and where people need to well consider their expense ratios. And we really have, I guess, the support, and Nigel has been working on this for a while, of the network brokers that we own, to say they've had a pretty good run with the increased turnover that they've been able to do. They all recognize that that will come not to a slamming into a brick wall, but that it will start to ease, and they're all keen to make sure that they're lean and that they're organic.
I mean, the number one thing we talk about with all our, our equity brokers or our equity underwriting agencies is organic growth. Okay? That's the whole, whole nub of what we do, whether we can maintain the same expense ratio and increase volume, or indeed, whether the current expense ratio is suitable for a different environment. And then Nigel's been all over that with his team from that point of view. So we've got quite a few figures that we can pull, and we've been working on them for some time.
Okay, great. Thanks for that. And last, final question from me, just on commission, commission rates, more broadly, are you seeing any signs of pressure elsewhere beyond household? Just, yeah. Thanks.
Well, I don't see... No, to answer that question, unfavorably, no, no. But the householders is really driven more by the reality that the consumer is paying a hell of a lot more for their their house and their car. And we have to recognize that there's a need for the consumer to get advice in those areas, but those products are maybe a little simpler than what a complicated ISR is or a projected a business interruption analysis over products that are sold overseas or manufactured or distribution.
So in terms of the amount of work that required on a commercial account, there may not be as much pressure on commission there because the market adjusts its premiums to suit and the commercial business is absorbed by the consumer of commercial insurance. It's a different paradigm for the guy with the house. I was gonna say, pick a cheap suburb in Sydney. I think that I'd have to go a little wider than Sydney, but the struggling to pay a AUD 1,200 or AUD 1,500 or AUD 800 or AUD 900 premium, and we have a... As a successful company and a successful group of intermediaries, we have a responsibility to say: Are we making too much money out of this transaction, right?
And if we are, we will carve a little bit on our commission structure in order to abate the price increases. But I think, I think at the moment, we can answer that very, very correctly, that there is no pressure on us, in the foreseeable future or under discussion, about reducing the remuneration structure for commercial insurance in Australia and New Zealand.
Got it. Thanks so much for that, for that, guys. No further questions from me.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from, Andrei Stadnik from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Rob, and team, can I ask a couple of questions, please? Can I just firstly ask around SCTP, like what further enhancements or, you know, growth or ideas are you looking at with your platform there?
Look, it’s pretty simple to answer. There is one thing that I’ll add, part of business on the Client Trading Platform is the inability for the insurers to take a, an auto rating system into their systems, back office systems. Without boring you, the complications are quite strong. They are now, however, all starting to realize something we realized 15 years ago, but that’s okay, right? That the cost of having people doing things is becoming very difficult. You know, you gotta look at their wage rise as well. So what we have to do is to continue the product line on, that’s got an auto rater attached to it. And I don’t mean an auto rater that looks good at visually, and one that actually does fulfills direct access into their back office system. So that’s what we’re working on.
And over the maturation of the Client Trading Platform, and indeed there are some systems out there now that insurers can go to, to facilitate that transaction if they want to. Now, however, that's not an easy thing to do because they all have massive IT divisions who are all, oh, how can I say this politely? Protecting their own patch and are not keen to have somebody come in. So the reality is, the product range, about 80% of the products we sell could be on an auto rater going out to, to insurers, being efficiently delivered, you know, the Client Trading Platform is first to desk, everything, you know, quote, sign, cancel, amend, renew, certificate of currency, issue the policy document, and straight off the line.
That's an incredible amount of efficiency in the buying and placing of insurance. So it all revolves around auto rating and the ability to provide it. I mean, the Client Trading Platform can deliver into an ISR underwriter, an ISR slip on an auto basis. But then if that's got to be manually done, then it's just another pile of digital data that's got to be worked on manually. We have solved that problem for a lot of the product lines we've bought, and we believe the future is to solve those problems. The insurers have somewhat been slow down on that, but now the emphasis is coming very strongly, and we're getting great support on it.
That's why you're seeing the Steadfast Client Trading Platform are running towards the AUD 1.4 billion rolling twelve as at 30 June this year.
Thank you. Thank you, Rob. And look, my second question, can I ask around some of the costs and wage, you know, you know, changes in your business. Are you seeing, you know, costs and wage pressures start to slow down a bit?
Well, Stephen, you've got Stephen.
Yeah, that's exactly what I was alluding to in my comments there, that I think the trajectory on that has definitely peaked probably six months ago, and I think it's starting to come back to what I might call more sustainable levels.
I mean, you've got to realize that the Stephen two years ago started building quite substantial price increases into our wages, okay? And we put through 8.8% at one stage, didn't we? That's a big increase in a year, and we absorbed that, and we met our criteria, met our guidance. So we've been biting the bullet. We haven't been holding back on doing this, so we're not. We're in a very good position because of the work that Stephen's been into that over the last couple of years, to make sure our wages go up, that the people working for us are getting paid well.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Kieran Chidgey at Jarden. Please go ahead.
Morning, guys. A couple of questions, maybe just starting on a similar vein around cost growth, I think, particularly in agencies, yeah, high teen organic cost growth this half, which has been sort of similar run rate through 2023. Just wondering, yeah, aside from sort of wage inflation, you know, I think your commentary indicates you put additional staff on, you built out systems there. So just wondering how progressive you are in that journey, and, you know, should we expect sort of, you know, significant step down in cost growth into either second half 2024 and 2025?
I'd be saying, looking for that in 2025, there'll be some continuation. It'll start to ease off a little bit this half, but it's, it's more of a 2025 story. As I said, we have consciously invested into those areas. And yeah, that, that rebasing, if you like, that we've been talking about is, is really a 2024 story.
And I mean, part of the cost that we've put into our CHU, and they've still produced great organic growth and profit for us, is, it's probably a little market sensitive. The ability for us to be able to digitally evaluate the size of a building, okay? And then be able to take that digital, I guess, hologram of that building back in and put it through a system that says, "That building should be insured for X, not Y." Now, we've developed that and we've built it, and that cost has gone in, and hasn't been capitalized on their balance sheet.
Future revenue stream.
Yeah. What we're doing is, we, you know, it's a great business, you know, as a standalone insurer, it would be one of the top in Australia. We think that we've invested in client systems which are more efficient. We've put people in where to allow us, I guess, the safety of when you get a huge amount of clients that run through that we're protected there. So, if you've got a very successful business, you can't look at it from the point of view of how much can we cut out of this business and make more profit? We look at how long can we sustain this business, and what do we in that business to keep that profit margin going and the sales going.
And so that's why we invest in them.
Thanks. Just a second question, following up on some of the earlier discussion around the organic growth outlook. Rob, yeah, take your point, sort of commercial rates aren't going to... Or rate increases, I should say, aren't going to go to zero anytime soon-
No
with inflation. But just wondering, sorry, if you can give us your, your current sort of broader outlook, you know, maybe heading into 2025, just given all the, all the different factors you've cited.
Look, I think if you wanna look at the calendar year 2025, then I wouldn't be surprised because if we'll get 7.5% rate growth across the GWP, okay? That's. I think we can look at 25, look at it at the moment. The hard thing, of course, is if the attritional claims start to wane, and then they start to make more money, but at the moment, I don't think.
I think we're gonna never go below about 3% or 4% each year in, they have now decided that they need to keep inflation under control in terms of, and your point before is, you still haven't bought the correct sum insured on the assets and the buildings that are insured, so that's the next iteration of GWP growth. So you may have a stable, rating grow, ratings may go up 2%-3%, okay? But in reality, that property, that AUD 100 bucks that you've got insured, you might have a 2%-3% rate increase, but you may actually have a 20% or 25% increase in sum insured.
If you consider that most fire policies are first loss policies, but to insure for full value, then they will get a big uplift as the buildings and the assets get to be insured for the correct full value. So I think as best I can explain it.
Okay, just a final question sort of related to that. Just wondering if you can sort of unpack some of the organic growth differentials you saw this period between broking, sort of running at 10 and agency running at six. I know you call that volume growth and broking around three.
Yeah.
Is it, is it just that or sort of, you know, there are other factors in agency that have been-
Well-
Aside from class of business mix differences that are sort of-
I think it's.
in play here.
I think it's pretty simple. The majority of that easing back comes out of CHU. Okay? It's and it came back from the fact that, as market leaders, we have to make a decision about our portfolio that we have to implement. And I, and this sounds arrogant, but I think our guys and our actuaries are pretty clever about pricing, what the price should be. So we moved in substantial price increases, and we moved excess increases up. So our renewal persistency probably fell 7 or 8%, okay? And our new business price rates probably fell 6-7%. So our, our...
To do the numbers we've done and get the organic growth we've done is contrary to what you would expect when you are a market leader and start to drive increase of premiums down. Now, partly, the rest of the market probably follows our lead. I mean, we have no idea why, but if we need to put the price up, and we're experts in that such part of the world, then everybody should be putting the bloody price up, because we're not writing any risks different to the rest of the market. So I think that's why the organic growth seems to not be as good on... Well, first of all, for the extra money we spent on it, I guess we pulled some- we as, as I'm, we're just articulated.
Secondly, the fact that we put a couple of lines in the sand on pricing and excess, which meant that our competitors marked off some of our business. By the way, it was deliberate. I mean, we were on track to do AUD 1 billion GWP through CHU. I mean, that was just insane. So we needed to get AUD 1 billion worth of premium, but not on the same amount of risks that we were doing. So that's about it.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Olivier Coulon, from E&P Financial. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi, guys. Can you hear me?
Yep.
Perfect. Thanks for taking my questions. First one, just on Sure Insurance, I mean, is it too early to, you know, get a good sense as to what the two cyclones might mean for, you know, out-of-year earnings, especially on the profit commission? And I guess if you can-
Just on the profit commission, what's baked into our income at the moment is profit commissions that we've earned, that are gonna fall into place. So they, well, they won't be impacted by the two cyclones. What the two cyclones could impact, okay, is the next payment we make for sure. Okay, but that hasn't reached-
Earn out, earn out in network 25.
Yeah, the earn out. Yeah. That's why we put that protection in from that point of view. And really, but Sure and ourselves recognize that the most territory could be impacted by weather events. Okay, so if the weather events didn't come, then we'll pay it out. But at the moment, to be fair, the impact of the amount of money that came back from the pool, the impact of where we're at, that hasn't reached a maturation date at the moment. It will do over the next month or two.
Yeah. No, that's perfect. And just on ISU network broker numbers, I mean, was there any material change versus the acquisition case? And how are you feeling about, I guess, you know, it sounds like you're going to be working quite constructively with the carriers and the brokers to, you know, optimize the work that they're doing so that everybody gets paid a bit more in the chain. But how are you feeling about raw numbers, you know, and I guess stemming any attrition from PE activity?
It's Sam here. I can answer that question. Well, since we've had the acquisition, there's been four members that have left ISU all through acquisition, and we've replaced those four members with other members, so the numbers have stayed consistently the same.
Okay. No, that's terrific. Thanks. And just on the Australian network, I mean, the numbers look still pretty good, but there was a bit of an uptick in leavers this period. You know, is that just sheer luck, or is that partly to do with your compliance kind of crackdown?
A couple of sales, I think is-
There was a couple of sales, but we didn't,
Participate in.
We didn't participate in the sales process. Okay. So, but yes, no, it's... And there were some sales internally, some mergers internally as well, okay? So the number, if we merge a couple of businesses, then one drops off from that point of view. But yeah, I mean, we're anxious to look at any brokers that want to sell in the network, but sometimes we're anxious to be as successful in those acquisitions.
Yeah.
Okay, so.
No, that's true.
We'll let others take some of those, some of our time.
Yeah. And so I might have misheard: Was the prognostication of, you know, weighted average GWP rate growth in 25, was that calendar year, or was that fiscal year?
Sorry, I missed that question. Can you say that again?
So, you know, Rob had a stab at thinking as to what FY 2025 would look like. But was that-
Oh, yeah.
Sorry, was that calendar 2025 or-
Calendar.
Or fiscal 25?
Calender
Okay, got it.
Calendar, calendar year, calendar year.
Yeah. So it would push into FY 2026.
Yeah. The reason I say calendar year is that most insurers run their financial years calendar years. So that, they're, you've only got really, probably, IAG and Suncorp that run June to June. Yeah, except that the internationals all run to January to December.
Yeah. Okay. No, that's perfect. Thank you very much, guys, and congrats.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please register by pressing star then one on your phone. Your next question comes from Scott Hudson at MST. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, gentlemen. I just had a couple of questions. Firstly, Rob, did you say that your agency, GWP, is expected to be AUD 2.75 billion by the end of this financial year?
Yeah, it's on track to do that, yeah.
That's 30% growth-
We did it to Sure?
Well, there's a little bit of Sure, yeah, Sure's in that, but the reality is, we did AUD 1.1 billion for the first half. And you can say that the second half's stronger.
Okay.
If you take the first half.
Yeah, Sure has only got one month.
Yeah, we've only got one month of Sure in that first half.
So, yeah, if you annualize our Sure and all that type of thing, that's where-
Yeah. That's when you start to get the compound... But what I also said is that it, depending on the way the markets move, okay, it could be higher than that. Yeah, but definitely got 1.1, and you could say, well, it's gonna be 2.2, but that's not the way it's weighted towards the second half. So the first half, that 1.1 doesn't have the June period in it from last year, and June's a big period, so it's not just a matter of multiplying by two.
Yep. And then just in relation to the agency, there seems to be a little bit of a disconnect between your sort of organic revenue growth at 14% versus your organic GWP growth at closer to 6%. Could I just understand?... What's driving that?
Yeah, what you've got here on the 4% revenue growth, it's the net revenue. So it's the net pull-through revenue that the agency actually achieves. So for instance, Rob mentioned on Mansions, they might still get their total gross commission on their uplifted sales, but they had a little bit less pay away on the broking side coming through. So you'll—it's the net revenue that they've got that we report in that slide. Yeah.
I'm not quite sure. How does so the revenue growth is not purely linked to the GWP growth?
It is in the sense that AUD 100 of GWP might go up to AUD 105, but if the agency is, you know, collecting AUD 30 and paying out AUD 20, and you're reporting AUD 10, but all of a sudden they pay out only AUD 19 to the broker, they might have 11 percentage points of it, other than the 10 percentage points net. So it's a combination of the whole lot that comes through in terms of those numbers.
Okay. Then lastly, I guess you're expecting to see some operational leverage in FY 25 on the back of those cost investments through 24 in the agency business?
Yeah, that's right. And I think we'll learn some lessons from how we've invested into some of those larger agencies, and how we think through for the smaller portfolio that we've got, and how we wisely work that through.
Okay. Sorry, just one more. In terms of the, I guess, approach to fees over the past sort of period, given the relatively strong rate increases, have the brokers been sort of taking a lower share of fees to help clients?
No. Oh, that hasn't happened. You've been in South Africa lately. Oh, God, you said past just a minute ago. I'm just, just wondering-
Hard to shake it, Rob. Hard to shake it.
Okay. No, that's the erroneous statement that we made a couple of years ago. We said, probably they'll have to cut their fees back. In reality, the fees went up. People are getting used to paying fees for advice, I think.
Yeah.
No, no, they're not dropping off at all, mate.
All right. Much appreciated. Thank you.
Thanks, Rob.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Siddharth Parameswaran from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Good morning. A couple of questions if I can, please. The first one is just, maybe one for Stephen. Stephen, your guidance on EBITDA growth for the second half, I think the midpoint implies about 22% growth on the PCP. I was just hoping you could break that out between the acquisition side and what you're expecting as organic growth.
Yeah. The second half will definitely be, a much more acquisition-heavy growth. So you'll have, probably even towards 12%-13% sort of rate of growth that we're expecting to see coming through. Now, on the EBITDA side, can I just make this one point? That the difficulty on trying to project the EBITDA number is when you buy a stake in a broker, you might be buying a 20% stake or a 60% stake, and depending on what you buy, you might be getting a share of the profit bottom line, or you might be showing the full gross EBITDA and then dialing it back in the non-controlling interest. Or indeed, you might go from 70% and step up to 80%, and all you're doing is taking out the non-controlling interest because you've already got the EBITDA there.
So, the way we tend to think of it is, even though we do try to give you a feel for the EBITDA, it's probably that bottom line growth, that impact growth that we really do concentrate on the most because that's where you see the full economic impact coming through, regardless of the accounting process that you've got. But it's fair to say, in general, that the acquisition growth is very much a catalyst for the growth in the second half.
At the moment, we've retained our original organic growth assumptions, which has a little bit less organic growth in the second half than we had in the first half because the momentum that we got from the interest rate increases starts to, still increases, but, but less delta in second half than it was in the first half. I hope that gives you enough color for what I'm trying to say there.
Yeah. No, that's actually very helpful. Thank you for that. Maybe just a follow-up question on some of the comments on the—that you made, Robert, on the rate cycle. I think from memory, you had, I think six months ago, you had said, I think you're seeing or you're assuming rate increases of around 8%. And I think when you upgraded in November,
Yeah
I think you said you were seeing more than that.
Go ahead. Yeah.
We didn't see any comments on what you're actually getting now. So my question is just: What have you actually seen since you made that update? And the 7.5% guidance that you're giving as to what you expect in calendar year 2025, is that rates or is that GWP? Is that commission per policy? I'm just, I just want to, want you to clarify what that is.
That's right, that's for 2025. I don't think I think that that's gonna be made up of two factors: the attritional claims and the impact of reinsurance will have settled, but I think still be pushing reinsurance up marginally this year. And then on top of that, the biggest effect will be inflationary effect as well. I guess inflation will show GWP growth, and Some insureds will go up and you'll get that extra GWP that way. But in reality, the core business, I think that probably it'll be 3% or 4%, and then they'll just to maintain status quo, and then they'll be looking for another 3% or 4%.
So I think at the moment, if you had to throw a figure, 7.5% GWP growth is a rate that will probably be achievable through calendar year 2025.
Okay. Sorry, just to clarify, 7.5% rate, plus whatever we might think you'd get in terms of policy growth, that's clear?
Yeah.
Just-
I think-
Just what you're getting now-
Yeah
In rate, what you had in the, you know, last few months on rate increases?
Yeah, I think we had between 8 and 9%.
Yeah, the rate increases haven't abated at all.
They haven't abated a bit. Yeah. In fact, companies like QBE are trying to drive plus 10% still at the moment.
Okay. Okay, thank you. Just one more question just on when the cycle eventually turns. We've seen quite a bit of expense growth in the last couple of years. I mean, you made the comment on having to reinvest in some of your businesses. But-
Yep
When the cycle turns, can we expect margins to stay flat in broking and in agency and in the agency business, can we expect them to rise because, you know, you can... There'll be efficiencies you can gain? How should we think about what, you know, what you think you can do? Do you have targets? Maybe it's a question for Nigel, 'cause he seems to be working on this. It seems like most of your comments are, I think in response to Julian's questions were around revenues, but maybe I'm particularly interested in costs and what you can do there.
Hi, Sid, Nigel here. As I mentioned, we've been looking at this consistently and constantly along the way. We have a number of levers. Stephen mentioned discretionary spending, so we can take a look at all of our discretionary spending and we've got good runway there in terms of areas of improvement, whether that be out of efficiency or effectiveness. And in the broking businesses specifically, we've got underutilized or available penetration through the utilization of the tools we've been building around SCTP and the Risk Group, which gives us the ability to look at the revenue lever without increasing cost. Then we've also got all of the efficiencies we're looking at in terms of technology improvements around how we administer the business and how we run the business.
So, good available maturing strategies in the broker business to maintain margins. And then on the underwriting side, not dissimilar. We're looking at our operating model, how we move forward from a tech and operational point of view, on the expense line and then also on the growth line. We believe we've got further available penetration in front of us as we continue to, you know, push forward with our 30 brands.
I don't think I'm badass. I don't think it's gonna be a waterfall.
No, I don't think... I think the increased regulation in the insurance industry from the carrier side, their nimbleness to get to data, understand their portfolio performance, stay abreast of external factors like inflation, whether that be real inflation or social inflation, things like reinsurance costs. Rob and I both believe we're in a far more disciplined environment, when working with our insurer carriers. So we'll see, at times, ebbs and flows in various pockets of the market as they go through competitive pressures. But overall, we see a pretty, disciplined market moving forward with the frequency of natural catastrophes only increasing. I mean, we, you know, had early advice that we're heading back into a wet season, at the end of this calendar year.
I think we're all for, for growing that, given it'll be our fourth out of five years. But there's many factors still at play here that the insurers will adjust and adjust quickly for. So we're, we're supporting their increased discipline moving forward.
I think we're fortunate that we understand the intricate way that the insurers have got to report and how they've got to account for themselves because of our MGAs and because of APRA's footprint over the insurers to say: Make sure your MGAs are aligned with exactly what your risk is and what your risk appetite and your compliance is. And we're seeing how much pressure is on them, and we're seeing the pressure that's coming from consumers on them. But they've got to, I think, this sounds awful.
I guess the man in the street broker hasn't got any appreciation for what's going on at the insurers, whereas I think we've got basically through Nigel's experience and my own experience in this market, we're seeing a much more tighter insurance industry from the point of view of there is no laissez-faire underwriting coming in, like there used to be in the past. It's now disciplined. Delegated authorities are now extremely maintained. People are getting picked if they breach those authorities now. It's not a matter of a slap over. I think it's a very strong industry to be in in the foreseeable future.
So, so sorry, just to, just to encapsulate that, in terms of margin outlook, am I to take that the margins will hold? I mean, I'm just asking the question because we've seen some peers see large uplifts in margins in this strong cycle. We haven't really seen that at Steadfast, and just keen to understand if there is any buffers in there which we might see some of that released, or if it is actually just a go-forward position.
The comment I'd say is the agency margins have been the eye-watering holy grail I think everybody else is trying to achieve. So for us, it's how do you maintain that and yet continue to invest into the proposition there? On the broking side, sometimes you just gotta also analyze what's behind our broking numbers. We actually have quite a couple of large AR businesses that operate on a completely different margin basis to a standard brokerage. So to actually analyze what we truly have in our businesses, unfortunately, is. It leans a little bit more to the second than what you see on the headline.
I think the point of what you're saying there. We have two businesses. We've probably got four businesses, but out of those four businesses, we've probably got AUD 1.7 billion worth of sales that we only make the margin at the AR Network charges, and the broker makes the other margin. So I think that's the point you're making, isn't it? That-
Without trying to justify, I can tell you it is our complete focus to make sure that-
Yeah
The margins we've got continue to improve on the go forward. It's a, we tried to repeat several times on this call, be it on the revenue levers, the cost levers, efficiency drivers, we are all over making sure that the margins continue to improve on the go forward. But we have, as we said, for 2024 and 2023, 2023, now 2024, specifically invest in a couple of key areas that we thought it was appropriate to be able to maintain long-term sustainability and that competitive advantage. But we are very focused on making sure that the costs are managed well for going forward.
Yep.
That's very clear. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Sidd.
Thank you. We are showing no further questions, so I'd like to hand back to Robert Kelly for closing remarks. Thank you.
Okay, thanks very much. Thanks for all your attention and your interest. We'll just continue to be as transparent as we can with you on what we're doing, and if it continues the way it is, then I think it's gonna be a strong, strong year. So, we're very confident in the market right at the moment. So thanks for your time. We better let you all get back to making money. Thank you.
Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.