...Welcome to Stockland's FY 2024 Result Briefing. There will be a formal presentation, followed by a Q&A session. Participants will be able to ask questions by phone or through the webcast. There'll be instructions on how to do so following the presentation. I'll now hand over to Tarun Gupta, Managing Director and CEO, for opening remarks.
Good morning. My name is Tarun Gupta, CEO and Managing Director. Welcome to Stockland's Financial Results Update for FY 2024. Before we begin, I would like to start by acknowledging the traditional owners and custodians of the land on which we meet, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation, and pay my respects to elders, past, present, and emerging. Joining me today is Alison Harrop, our CFO, Kylie O'Connor, CEO of Investment Management, and Andrew Whitson, CEO of Development. FY 2024 was a year of continued strong execution of our strategy and solid operational performance. We were pleased to deliver a FY 2024 financial result at the top end of our guidance range, while retaining a strong balance sheet position and progressing our strategic priorities.
We have maintained our operational focus while accelerating the execution of our strategy with the acquisition of 12 master planned communities projects and five land lease communities projects, and the execution of further non-core town center asset disposals. We have also executed on three new capital partnerships and further evolved our operating model to enhance our end-to-end delivery capability. We remain confident in the underlying demand drivers for Australian residential real estate and have positioned ourselves for a significant increase in production rates with the launch of 15 new MPC and LLC communities during FY 2024, and a further eight new communities expected to launch during FY 2025 from our existing pipeline. The quality and diversity of our investment management portfolio is evidenced by its strong operational performance over FY 2024, and we remain focused on unlocking the development and income upside embedded in the portfolio in a disciplined manner.
In December 2023, we announced the acquisition of 12 high-quality, actively trading MPC projects via the establishment of the Stockland Supalai Residential Communities Partnership. The acquisition, which remains subject to regulatory approval, represents a step change in the reshaping of our portfolio and accelerates the execution of our strategy by increasing our capital allocation towards residential sectors, while scaling capital partnership platform and generating new sources of recurring income. We were also pleased to welcome another high-quality, globally recognized investor, Invesco Real Estate, to our platform through the formation of the Stockland Land Lease Partnership during the year. In July 2023, we extended our relationship with our existing partner, Mitsubishi Estate Asia, through the formation of a new capital partnership in Stockland-owned and marketed, market-originated MPC opportunities.
While driving a targeted increase in our exposure to residential sectors, we have also continued to reshape our investment management portfolio through the disciplined conversion of our logistics development pipeline and disposal of non-core town center assets. We have continued the positive strategic momentum of FY 2024 into the new financial year. Earlier this month, together with our consortium partners, we were confirmed as the preferred proponent to deliver the Waterloo Renewal Project with Homes New South Wales. This project will be one of Australia's largest and most significant inner-city renewal initiatives, delivering a sustainable mixed tenure community of over 3,000 apartments, including 50% social and affordable housing. The project is expected to be delivered over multiple stages, with anticipated commencement of works in 2027, subject to all relevant planning and internal approvals.
The delivery of this project in coming years will continue to diversify and increase our capital allocation to the residential sector in line with our strategy. Now, turning to the FY 2024 financial result. Our pre-tax funds from operations was AUD 843 million, or AUD 0.354 per security, at the top end of our guidance range. Our investment management segment delivered a strong FY 2024 result, with FFO up 4.5% and solid comparable growth from the investment portfolio of 3.5%. The performance of our development segment was underpinned by strong settlement volumes and development operating profit margins across both the MPC and LLC businesses. This was offset by a decline in commercial development profits and related management income, reflecting a lower level of development activity with third parties during FY 2024.
We finished the year in a strong capital position, with gearing at 24.1%, comfortably within our target range of 20%-30%. Our NTA per security has remained resilient in a declining market. It was down slightly to AUD 4.12, impacted by net valuation movements, mainly in our workplace portfolio. These movements also impacted our recurring ROIC, which remained positive but was below our through cycle target range for the year, while our development ROIC was within its target range. Our ESG strategy is focused on making a positive impact through the delivery of innovative and commercially sustainable solutions in the areas of social impact, circularity, climate resilience, and decarbonization. Leveraging large-scale on-site renewable energy generation is a critical component of our decarbonization pathway.
Late last year, we announced our innovative partnership with Energy Bay to achieve 100% renewable energy across our portfolio and net zero Scope 2 emissions by twenty twenty-five. We made strong progress to source lower carbon materials for our development pipeline during the year. The use of lower carbon concrete, introduction of electric arc furnace steel for logistics projects, and substitution of timber frames and trusses instead of steel in our land lease communities business, are all expected to drive significant and meaningful reductions in embodied carbon, helping us to achieve our long-term Scope 3 emissions targets without impacting our returns from these projects. Throughout the year, we have also made meaningful project progress towards achieving our targets for social value creation, implementing our stretch Reconciliation Action Plan, and identifying and mitigating climate risks across our portfolio.
Our team and the strength of our innovative and inclusive culture drive our success. We are committed to creating an environment that is supportive of our teams and celebrates diversity, inclusion, and well-being, and it is pleasing to see employee engagement remaining consistently high at 87%, well above the Australian national norm. I'll now hand over to Alison to take us through the financial results.
Thanks, Tarun, and good morning, everyone. As flagged at the half, we have adjusted our full-year reporting to align with our new operating structure with investment management and development business units. On a pre-tax basis, FY 2024 funds from operations of AUD 843 million was down 4.5% relative to FY 2023, with FFO per security at AUD 0.354 at the top end of our guidance range. The decline versus the previous period primarily reflects a higher weighted average cost of debt, the impact of non-core asset disposals over FY 2023 and FY 2024, and lower contributions from our commercial development activities. On a post-tax basis, FFO for FY 2024 was AUD 786 million or AUD 0.33 per security. Moving to the key line items. Investment management FFO was up 4.5% versus FY 2023.
This reflects comparable growth of 3.5% across the investment management portfolio, contributions from land lease and logistics development completions, and a growing investment management fee income stream, offset by the impact of non-core town center disposals over FY 2023 and FY 2024. For our development segment, both MPC and LLC development contributions were up for the year, reflecting stronger settlement volumes and solid margins. This was offset by reduced contributions from commercial development and development management fees, reflecting reduced development activity for third parties over the period. Unallocated corporate overheads were up by just under 4%, broadly in line with the rate of inflation over the year. We continue to balance a focus on cost containment with the need to make targeted investment in growth areas. On a combined basis, unallocated investment management and development overheads were up by just under 5% for the year.
Net interest expense was up materially compared to FY 2023. This was primarily driven by a 100 basis point increase in our weighted average cost of debt for the year, along with a higher period average debt balance. We capitalized a slightly higher proportion of our total interest costs into development projects this year, reflecting an increased level of development spend in MPC, and in particular, LLC, as we increase our overall activation levels. Our effective tax rate was 7% this year, compared to 4% in FY 2023, and as a reminder, we utilized the last of our tax losses in FY 2023. We've actively managed our capital over the year, recycling almost AUD 700 million from non-core town center assets into higher returning opportunities and finishing the year with gearing at 24.1%, slightly below the midpoint of our target range.
Our weighted average cost of debt for the year was 5.3%, and we expect this to average around 5.4% for FY 2025. Our fixed hedge ratio averaged 58%, up slightly over the second half, and we continue to actively manage our interest rate exposure. During the first half of the year, we utilized bank debt for new borrowings and refinancing. However, in the second half, we took advantage of more favorable pricing and greater availability in debt capital markets, allowing us to extend our weighted average debt duration to just over five years. Our near-term debt expiry profile is very manageable, with less than AUD 300 million of drawn expiries between now and June 2025, and we have AUD 3.1 billion of liquidity, providing good forward coverage of expiries as well as funding flexibility for the group. Now on to cash flows.
Operating cash flow for FY 2024 was AUD 114 million, or AUD 900 million before land payments. This reflects an increased level of development spend, in particular for land lease, as we expand our pipeline and increase activation rates in line with strategy. In future periods, this will translate to cash inflows in the form of higher settlement volumes and transfers into partnerships. So in summary, we have delivered a result at the top end of our guidance range. The balance sheet is in good shape, and we continue to position the business for growth. I'll now hand to Kylie to take us through the investment management result.
Thanks, Alison, and good morning. I'm very happy to be joining you today to present the FY twenty-four results for investment management. The business has delivered a strong result, primarily driven by the recurring net revenue derived from our diversified portfolio. The result reflects the non-discretionary nature of our town center assets, our high-quality, well-located logistics portfolio and associated development completions, the planning, delivery, and capital partnering of workplace and living projects, and deep capabilities of our team. We have delivered 3.5% positive comparable FFO growth over the period. Contributing to this result was strong growth from our logistics assets, underpinned by continued tenant demand and positive leasing spreads, also seen in our town center portfolio. Occupancy remains high across logistics and town centers, while our workplace portfolio delivered 3.2% comparable FFO growth, despite difficult market conditions and assets being prepared for redevelopment.
Communities rental income includes revenue from our six stabilized land lease communities assets and a number of assets in delivery. This high-quality recurring income stream is expected to become a meaningful contributor to the business over time. Management fee income has also increased over the year, reflecting our established capital partnerships and property management fees. Moving on to valuations, continued market volatility and an increase in transactional evidence led to cap rate expansion of 39 basis points across the portfolio. The net valuation movement is largely attributable to valuation impacts in the workplace portfolio, which is reflective of the current re-rating in this sector.
Negative cap rate movements in logistics were offset by rental growth, resulting in an increase of 2.1% to our carrying value, and the town centers portfolio experienced a minor decrease in value due to moderate cap rate expansion, again, largely offset by solid rental growth. Over the year to June, 86% of assets were independently valued, with the weighted average cap rate across the portfolio now at 6%. Our logistics portfolio delivered very strong performance, with comparable FFO growth of 6.8%, underpinned by positive leasing spreads of just under 38%. This result reflects the high-quality nature of the portfolio and the assets benefiting from access to strong market rental growth.
More than three hundred and fifty thousand square meters of space was leased over the period, driven predominantly by deals in our New South Wales assets, reflecting high demand due to historically low market vacancy. Incentives remain low at 6%, with almost half the deals negotiated during the year not receiving any incentive. Occupancy remains high at 98%, with only two warehouses vacant, and our New South Wales assets are 100% leased. The portfolio WALE at 3.2 years allows us to capture further rental growth, as will the ongoing delivery of the development pipeline. Completions at Ingleburn, Leppington, and 90 Melbourne Drive contributed to the positive result during the period. Our workplace portfolio, at AUD 1.7 billion, represents a low exposure to the commercial office sector, with the majority of assets positioned for future development.
While these assets are strategic holds with significant future value, our strategy is to ensure the highest level of operating income while preparing the assets for redevelopment. Comparable FFO growth of 3.2% represents increases in rent from existing leases, with lower re-leasing spreads and portfolio occupancy reflecting challenging market conditions, particularly in Perth, where rents at our Durack asset are being rebased to market. Our town centers portfolio delivered FFO growth of 2.1% and positive leasing spreads of 3.3%, representing three consecutive years of positive leasing spreads. We have continued to optimize the portfolio, finalizing AUD 690 million of non-core asset disposals and continuing the reweighting towards high-performing assets and essentials-based town centers. Occupancy remains high at over 99%, with strong demand for space in core assets…
We have completed over 400 leasing deals during the year, with key deals including Mecca and new food retailers at Green Hills. The portfolio continues to trade well, with specialty sales averaging 10,400 sq m, which is considerably above benchmark. Despite difficult market trading conditions, the portfolio continues to show growth, allowing room for rental increases while maintaining a sustainable occupancy cost for our tenant customers. More than 70% of turnover is attributed to non-discretionary categories. Consistent with our strategy, we are delighted to have welcomed a number of new capital partners onto the platform, with 5 partnerships established since 2022, providing exposure to a mix of sectors and return profiles.
Given the strength of our existing portfolio and development pipeline, we are confident that we will be able to offer further opportunities to partner across all sectors in the future and have strong early engagement with both existing partners and new groups for deployment of capital throughout FY 2025. Overall, I'm very positive about the performance and opportunities within the investment management business. The portfolio is well-positioned to extract further investment performance in both the short term and capitalizing on longer-dated master planning opportunities. Looking forward, our focus will be on harnessing the new operational structure and further enhancing the platform to strengthen our position as a leading diversified real estate manager. Thank you. I'll now hand to Andrew.
Thanks, Kylie, and good morning, everyone. Our development segment delivered a solid result for FY 2024. We're particularly pleased with the FFO growth delivered by MPC and LLC businesses against a backdrop of interest rate uncertainty. We've driven this by consistent execution of our strategy. As you'll see, we've made significant progress in activating our pipeline, which positions the business to take advantage of structural tailwinds as they play out. We've also expanded our capital partnering platform, providing additional capital to support future growth and drive incremental returns. Starting with commercial development, we continue to progress the delivery of our pipeline.
Over the financial year, we've commenced approximately AUD 600 million of logistics developments, completed the first two buildings at M Park, and we're accelerating the delivery of our neighborhood retail and community real estate pipelines, including the commencement of the Gables Neighbourhood Centre in New South Wales and four childcare centers, all within our own communities. We continue to take a disciplined approach to converting all opportunities, requiring an appropriate spread between yield on cost and market cap rates, and are actively exploring capital partnerships to unlock larger, longer-dated opportunities. Turning to MPC, we delivered settlements above our target for the year, which was pleasing given the heavy skew that we had to the second half. Our development margin, which is after all direct project costs and the release of capitalized interest in COGS, was in line with our guidance.
Importantly, we have good visibility into FY 2025, with over 3,400 contracts on hand at June. For FY 2025, we're targeting between 5,300 and 5,700 settlements. While we're achieving underlying price growth in all states except Victoria, we expect the geographic mix of settlements to result in an average settlement price broadly in line with FY 2024 and slightly lower margins. We saw a noticeable improvement in inquiry levels across all states in the second half of the financial year. Inquiry has moderated over Q4 but remains above first-half levels. This translated to a progressive improvement in sales as we moved through the year, with the Victorian market lagging the uptick in other states. For Q1 of FY 2025, we expect net sales to be impacted by elevated cancellations.
This is the flow-on impact of the high number of settlements called in Victoria during June. In addition to volume recovery, we're also seeing underlying price growth in New South Wales, Queensland, and WA, with WA particularly strong. This revenue upside is being partially offset by higher construction cost escalation in WA and South East Queensland as volumes pick up. Onto our market outlook for the year ahead. While the pace of market recovery remains dependent on the interest rate outlook, the fundamental drivers underpinning the residential market remain supportive, and South East Queensland and WA are currently the strongest markets, reflecting their relative affordability advantages and positive net interstate migration. We expect to see some further price growth in the New South Wales market, but this is likely to be constrained by affordability challenges.
The recovery in Victoria is lagging other states, but sales volumes are forecast to increase, driven by continued population growth and improving relative affordability. Onto our LLC business. We delivered another strong performance from LLC this year, with settlements up materially for the year. LLC FFO also benefited from the expansion of our capital partnering platform, generating cash-back profit from the transfer of sites to our new partnership with Invesco. We have good earnings visibility into FY 2025, with contracts on hand at an average price slightly above FY 2024 settlements. For FY 2025, we're targeting 600-650 settlements at an average margin slightly below our target range, due to the deferral of some launch costs from the prior year. Sales volumes for LLC were up strongly for the year.
This reflects a combination of increasing demand for LLC development product and activation of our pipeline, with the launch of nine new LLC projects during FY 2024. We're seeing some variability in market conditions between states, but generally more solid demand for LLC product, and we continue to see price growth and strong inquiry for new stage releases. Over FY 2024, we've positioned our residential businesses to take advantage of the strong underlying market fundamentals. We launched 15 new MPC and LLC communities and expect to launch eight more in FY 2025, including, excluding the 12 active MPC projects within the Lendlease communities portfolio. Within the next two years, we expect to activate projects with a total of 16,000 lots from within our existing pipeline.
This increased level of project activation provides us with a high degree of flexibility around the timing of stage releases to meet demand, and importantly, it allows us to increase the supply of affordably priced housing options at a time when overall market supply is constrained. The scale of our MPC platform provides opportunities for most parts of our business, driving the rapid growth of our LLC portfolio, facilitating the creation of high-quality rental assets across neighborhood retail, community real estate, and logistics sectors, and generating new recurring income streams through our partnerships. So in summary, we provided a resilient result in variable market conditions, with strong performances from our MPC and LLC businesses. And over the last 12 months, we've made significant progress in activating our development pipeline across the residential, logistics, community real estate, and neighborhood retail sectors.
This gives us a high degree of flexibility in responding to demand to drive future growth. I'll leave it there and hand back to Tarun.
Thanks, Andrew. We're entering FY 2025 in a strong position. The ongoing redeployment of capital into our targeted growth areas is reshaping our portfolio and enhancing our returns. While economic and real estate market conditions remain uncertain, our MPC and LLC businesses have strong contracts on hand, and demand for our LLC product has proven resilient. By activating more of our MPC and LLC communities, we are capitalizing on strengthening market conditions in most states and ensuring that we are well positioned to benefit from an eventual recovery in the Victorian residential market. The high quality and diversity of our investment management portfolio continues to underpin its performance. Our town centers portfolio is benefiting from a high weighting to essentials categories, and we remain focused on capturing income generation opportunities presented by our well-located logistics portfolio and pipeline.
As we continue to expand our capital partnership platform, we focused on driving returns for the partnerships and creating new sources of high-quality, recurring fee income for the group. We continue to actively engage with capital partners and explore further opportunities for capital partnerships across our platform. For FY 2025, FFO per security guidance range is AUD 0.32-AUD 0.33 on a post-tax basis, excluding any benefit from the acquisition of the 12 MPC projects announced in late 2023, which remains subject to regulatory approval. Distribution per security is expected to be within our targeted payout ratio of 75%-85% of post-tax FFO. We will now open the lines for Q&A .
Thanks, Tarun. To ask a live audio question, click on the Request to Speak button at the top of the broadcast window. The broadcast will be replaced by the Audio Questions interface. Click on Join Queue once you are ready, and if prompted, select Allow in the pop-up to grant access to your microphone. Phone dial-in details are also available on the Request to Speak page. To ask a question on the phone line, please dial star at any time. The operator will take your details before placing you in the queue. I will introduce each caller by name and ask you to go ahead. You will then hear a beep indicating your microphone is live. And our first call today comes from Tom Beadle at UBS. Tom, please go ahead.
Morning, Tarun and Andrew and team. I was just interested in the resi margin being down and also settlement volumes broadly flat into next year or flat to slightly down. If you could sort of elaborate on key drivers there and how you're seeing twenty-five from a resi trading perspective, given you did have a good sales result in the Q4?
... Yeah, yeah, sure. Thanks, Tom. You know, from a margin perspective, yeah, what we are seeing is price growth, yeah, across all states except Victoria at the moment. Yeah, particularly strong in WA, you know, where it's been, you know, strong double-digit growth in the last 12 months. But what is impacting margins next year is the mix shift. So mix shift towards, you know, Western Australia, which has traditionally been our lowest margin portfolio. Margins are growing there and improving, but it's still that shift which is impacting those margins. Yeah, with regards to underlying retail market conditions, you know, we're seeing them pretty consistent from Q4 into the start of FY 2025 financial year. What we did call out was that Q1 net sales would be impacted by cancellations flowing through from Victoria.
Just to give you a bit of flavor around that, we called for around fifteen hundred settlements in Victoria in June, majority of those in the last two weeks. We had about four hundred of those push out into this financial year. About 50% of those will settle, and about 50% of those will cancel. So it's that elevated cancellations in Victoria, which on a net basis, will see lower Q1 net sales, but that is taken into account in the guidance of 53-57 that we've provided.
So, is it fair to say it's Victoria that's holding you back, essentially?
Yeah, so we're seeing good, good conditions in the, in the other markets. It's been that Victorian softness. You know, total market will do about seven thousand, or did seven thousand net sales last financial year. Long-term average, fifteen to twenty. You know, there's a stock overhang that's being worked through there. Yeah, we think you'll see some moderate margin improvement this financial year. Yeah, ultimately, cyclically, that market will recover, and we still have a lot of confidence. It's getting, it's getting better from a relative affordability perspective as well.
Great, thanks. And then just maybe one, if I may, on for Alison on capitalized interest. I'd be interested in where that's going to flow into twenty-five. I noticed there was sort of more of a benefit in twenty-four from capitalizing a bit of extra interest with development activity going higher. Does that tailwind sort of subside a bit in 2025, or do you see that continuing into 2025?
Yeah, thanks, Tom. So you're right. This year we obviously did have an increase in cap interest, and around half of that was probably due to the weighted average cost of debt. The other half, as you say, was to do with the active development pipeline. What we're seeing into 2025 is that cap interest will likely be up again slightly, and that's really due to further increases in the land lease activation.
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Lauren Berry at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Oh, hey, good morning, guys. I was just hoping you could give a bit more color on the commercial development line. Looks like it was, you know, a fairly weak result in the second half. So, yeah, could you just talk about what's happened in that segment? And then also, what's the outlook for earnings coming back in a material way for development over the next few years? Thanks.
Yeah, sure. Thanks. Thanks, Lauren. You know, for FY twenty-four, there's probably two elements that have seen lower commercial development profits. One has been lower fund-through profits from the M Park development, and the other has been less build-to-sell profits from logistics. You know, next year, the contribution from commercial development profit will be immaterial. We would expect that to improve in following years as we bring on some of our some more logistics build-to-sell projects. You know, there's some elements of that at both Melbourne Business Park and Kemps Creek.
In terms of profits derived from partners, when is the next kind of big project coming through?
We don't have anything in 2025.
And then my other question is just around the liquidity. You've got cash and undrawn facilities of AUD 3.1 billion, which is about double what you had in FY 2023. And it's also a lot higher than what you're required to, you know, potentially settle on the twelve communities lot. Can you just talk about what the intention is, having such high liquidity on the balance sheet, please?
Yep, sure, Lauren. So, part of it is to fund, you know, our equity share of that acquisition, should it go ahead. Also, you know, looking for some good coverage of debt expiries. I think the other thing to think about is that we're also now quite an active business, so we do have sizable, you know, cash inflows and outflows within periods and really need some funding flexibility to kind of deal with that. The other thing to keep in mind is that we are expecting a skew in the MPC settlements again to the second half of 2025.
And so, you know, what that means is we're deploying capital into DevEx and land acquisitions all the way through the year, but we only get the cash back at the end, so needing some liquidity to assist us with that.
Lauren, the amount's gonna drop over 2025 as-
Yeah
... as we use up that liquidity for the acquisitions and development-
Yeah
pipeline, so it'll moderate across the year.
Yes, it's unlikely to remain that elevated into future periods. Yeah.
Mm-hmm. And, and so just final one, what's the percentage you're thinking about in terms of the resi settlement?
From a volume perspective, it's one third, two thirds.
Yeah, it's about 60%... more than 60% in the second half.
Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah.
Cool. Thank you.
Our next question comes from James Druce at CLSA. James, please go ahead.
Yeah. Yeah, hi, good morning. I just wanted to clarify something from Lauren's question, and it might just be a change in the segment notes. But I thought with the development CP profit in the first half, that was around AUD 20 million, and then for the full year it was AUD eight million. Is there something going on there, or is that just a changing up of the segments over the period?
It's really to do with some of the leasing that we did at M Park, so it only came through in the second half. So you're right, we had a positive first half, negative second half, really to do with some, like I say, leasing activity that we had to do at M Park, which, yeah, came through, fund-through fees.
Yeah, elevated incentives.
Yeah, it's just incentive payments. We had to allow for some incentives. As you know, that market is struggling a little, so allowing for those increased incentives is what pulled it back in the second half.
That was AUD 12 million worth. Okay.
Yeah.
All right. And then, yeah, just really interested in the Melbourne market. I was looking at the net sales for resi. They've actually picked up from 386 to 490 over the Q4, which is relatively material. Is there some discounting going on there? And then a follow-up question on valuations before, how much applies underwater for them to cancel?
Yeah, James, there's a couple of things in that Q4 just to think about. Generally, in the market down there at the moment, there's rebating, yeah, around 20k a lot going on as a general rule. You see that at most estates. We're offering it on select lots, particularly associated through specific campaign periods to drive inquiry. There hasn't been an uptick in that, and you'll see some of the land survey data that, you know, over the 12 months, net prices are largely flat, which been reflected in our communities as well. We did do some more wholesale trading in Q4, which is pretty typical.
Yeah, we give builders nine- to 12-month terms, so doing Q4 contracts with builders, particularly in that market where customers are wanting completed product at the moment, certainty around a build outcome. So there's slightly more wholesale in that number. What I would say, market conditions between, you know, Q4 and now have been largely stable in Victoria, so it's been what I'd describe as a soft market, and that's continued from Q4 into the start of the year.
Okay, and just on the valuations that are coming in that are pressuring cancellations, I mean, what are we seeing there?
Oh, it's been a mix of... You know, when you talk about those cancellations, it's been both, you know, valuations and, you know, change of circumstances, confidence, that's impacted it. Yeah, valuations, we're seeing, you know, a range, depending on the corridor and depending on the project, but, you know, around, you know, 3%-5%.
Okay. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Richard Jones at JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Oh, thanks. Just a couple of quick financial ones. Just the operating cash flow was significantly impacted by land payments in FY 2024. Just wondering what that looks like in the forward 12 months.
Yeah, so I can take that one. So yeah, you're right, it was impacted by some land payments. But having said that, the second half for 2024 was actually around AUD 600 million stronger than the first half. And obviously, that's really reflecting the second half settlement skew, and was, you know, in line with expectations. Going forward, for 2025, we do expect operating cash flow to be stronger, but DevEx is likely to remain a little elevated as we launch those additional LLC and MPC projects. But yeah, it should be a little stronger into FY 2025.
Okay, and then just from a funding perspective, what asset sales are you expecting, and what is the commercial DevEx you're anticipating in 2025?
... asset sales, well, we haven't really there isn't really nothing on the books at this moment that we're. I mean, obviously, we would always go through and look at the portfolio and see, but there's nothing assumed at the moment in terms of asset sales. DevEx, like I say, is gonna be elevated by probably almost another AUD 200 million going into 2025 from the levels that they were at this time. Again, because of the activation of those LLC and MPC projects, it'll be a little higher.
Richard, we are looking more at recycling capital through existing and potentially new partnerships. So that'll be the focus over 2025, but asset sales, as Alison said, there's nothing mooted at the moment. We are always looking at our portfolio, as you've seen last three years, assets where we've added you know the value we can, then we always trade some of those over 2025. Nothing mooted now, but you should expect some minor asset recycling as well, asset sales.
Is the partnerships more likely in the development side of the business or the investment side in the coming twelve months?
Could be both, Richard. Could be both. Again, we are in a number of discussions right across the platform, and as you've seen, we did three last year, so we're having some good success, but these conversations take a while to bring to fruition.
Okay, and just a follow-up question just for Andrew. Just the negative press on LLC, can you just call out what impact, whether that's positive or negative, it's been on your land lease business?
Richard, we haven't seen any impact at the moment. You know, Yeah, we look at sales and inquiry in Victoria, June, July, to start August, and it's been pretty consistent. Yeah, what we have seen in our Victorian LLC business, you know, we launched four projects down there last year. You know, as we've delivered amenity, which has really come on in the last three or four months and will continue over this half, we've seen an uptick in sales. Yeah, we've opened some community facilities at Evergreen down in the southeast. We've got display product now open at Jardin in Geelong. So yeah, that's seen a step up in sales volumes in the last three months in Victoria. Inquiry has been pretty consistent.
Excellent. Thanks, Dan.
Thank you. The next question comes from Ben Brayshaw at Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. I was wondering, just, on town centers, if you could just talk through, the comparable income growth for the last twelve months. Just struggling to reconcile how you get to the low twos, just given some of the metrics that, you're reporting.
Yeah. Thanks, Ben. Yeah, so our comparable FFO growth over the period was at that 2.2% level. I would say a couple of things. Portfolio is still performing really well. We have had strong income growth, and as you've seen, those leasing spreads over the last three-year period continued to come through. What we've seen in the 2024 period is an increased cost of electricity, so we've come off a favorable energy contract in the prior corresponding year. So that's had some impact on our net number. And then we're also coming off a higher base than the previous year. So if you look, the prior year to that, FY 2023, we had growth of almost 5%.
So the combination of those two factors has resulted in that low 2% number.
Will that normalize over the next twelve months, or should we expect a continuation of around low twos?
Yeah, so we're looking at a similar sort of number into the next year. We're obviously really focused on driving income growth because we have still got the strength coming through that portfolio, so I'm expecting slightly higher growth on the income side, and we'll have a focus on making sure that we're managing those costs where we can, but a lot of that is actually in the stats and, you know, areas that we can't control, but at the moment, we're forecasting a relatively similar growth number.
Okay, thank you. Just a question, Andrew, just on Superlot revenue recognized in the second half. Could you just expand on that, please, and any comments you could provide on the contribution to margin?
Yeah, sure. So the, you know, Superlot year on year, yeah, can be variable depending on the timing of, of sort of the non-residential lots that we're offering within the marketplace. Yeah, this year the number was slightly more elevated, predominantly due to one Superlot adjoining Elara, which we sold during the period. You know, that, that's not uncommon. You know, next year, yeah, we previously said AUD 20-50 million is sort of the range that we sit in. We'd expect it to sit within the top half of that range.
Terrific. Thanks, Andrew.
Thanks. Our next question comes from Lou Pirenc from Jarden. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Two quick questions for me. Can you talk about your payout ratio in light of some of the other questions on your liquidity and funding requirements as well? You've kind of been at the bottom end of the 75%-85% for the last couple of years. Is that kind of what we should assume for the next few years as well, given how much you need to fund the pipeline?
Yeah, look, hi, Lou. It's Alison. Yeah, we have been at the bottom end of that range. I think we feel that's a prudent position to be, you know, obviously retaining capital in the business. We have many opportunities to invest that capital to deliver future growth. So we feel that that's a prudent place to be in terms of that range, and yeah, likely to be there for the foreseeable future.
Right. And then secondly, Tarun, in your press release, you kind of talk about a step change in production rates. When do you think that will really kick off in terms of you know, earnings contribution? Is that, you know, clearly depends a little bit on this acquisition that is sitting with ACCC, but beyond that, is that more a 2026 story, or is it longer than that?
Yeah, I think we've given you FY 2025 guidance. Twenty-six, what I'd say is, if you look at what Andrew shared with you with the activation of our land, land, you know, land positions, you know, that's going up to 90%. LLC, obviously, we've got 17 new projects coming through. So, you know, subject to market conditions and cyclical recovery in residential, which is what we're anticipating, then, yeah, those will start to flow through. Our pipeline is not very long dated. As you know, once we start a stage in MPC, LLC, the earnings are 12 to 18 months away. So we are anticipating stronger contributions.
Of course, the transaction you mentioned, the 12 master planned communities we're looking to acquire, they will have quite a meaningful impact on earnings as well. Yeah, the outlook we are excited by, that's why we've been investing very heavily into the pipeline.
Right. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Peter Davidson at Pendal Group. Please go ahead.
My question's been answered. Thanks.
Thank you, Peter. Our next question comes from Suraj Nebhani at Citi. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Thank you, good morning. Just a couple of quick ones. So firstly, for Alison, on the overhead expectations into FY25 , please.
Yep, sure. So for twenty-five, we expect overall overheads will likely to be flat. So what you've seen this year is that we continue to kind of balance investing in growth in the business versus cost containment, kind of for the other, the rest of the corporate functions. And so that's why we had a very, you know, a small increase this year. We're working very hard on that. So next year, overall overheads, like I say, expected to be flat for twenty-five on this year.
Thank you, and maybe just one question for either Andrew or Tarun. I think looking at the disclosures, it does seem like the sales are bouncing back, but that's primarily being driven by investors and, you know, upgraders, downsizers. First home buyers are still weak. Do you think, or in your discussions with the various levels of government, do you see any support coming through for first home buyers, or do you think it's we just have to wait for rates to come down before that demand bounces back?
Yeah, Suraj, there's a couple of things that we're seeing in our portfolio. You know, where we're releasing affordable product, we are getting a good response from first home buyers, which tells us that there's clearly some pent-up demand there. You know, the most recent example I'd use was Highlands in Victoria, a softer market. We released 21 lots, and on that weekend, we sold 18 of them. They were smaller, more affordable lots that were positioned towards the first home buyer within the marketplace. Yet both state and federal government, yeah, are very focused on housing affordability, and you've seen a range of initiatives coming out into the marketplace, you know, around grants, shared equity. You know, there's more support for social and affordable coming through over the next 12 months that has been well telegraphed.
So we expect that to continue to flow through, and we're playing an active role in there, you know, working with state and federal government to look at how we can support that increased supply into the marketplace, which we think is critical in addressing housing affordability.
And Suraj, just to add to that, in WA and Queensland, we have seen first home buyers come back more towards long-term averages in our portfolio. It's really New South Wales is really expensive for first home buyers to get in, and of course, Victoria is soft. So yeah, it's not consistent across the states. There is some green shoots in other, you know, in the WA and Queensland markets.
Thank you. The other one was on the land lease partnerships. Obviously, this half you announced a new partnership on land lease with Invesco. You also had another partnership with Mitsubishi, so say two partnerships now on land lease. Can you talk to how I guess the product or the pipeline is to be allocated and yeah between the two partners, like how you're thinking about that?
... Yeah, Suraj, we've got, yeah, now two very important and aligned capital partners in Invesco and Mitsubishi. They're programmatic partnerships. They have appetite to get exposure over time. That's how we've structured it, and we've got a protocol agreed that works for Stockland and both parties. We've got the fortunate position that we've got a lot of pipeline coming through. You know, this year we think there's another six to nine projects that'll be getting ready to be offered to partnership. So pipeline is probably exceeding the individual appetite of those partners. That's why we've got two operating, so we don't, you know, there's quite a understood pathway in doing all of that, and hopefully over the next twelve to eighteen months, we can show you some more proof points of that.
Perfect, and one final one for you, Tarun. Obviously, there was some press on the project in Waterloo recently, where Stockland is at a preferred stage. Can you talk to the next steps there and I guess, your expectations on that project? Agree it's more medium term, but keen to understand, I guess, the background there.
Yeah, Suraj, we were very, very pleased and privileged to be chosen by Homes New South Wales on a very significant city-defining project here in Sydney. It's quite unique, with 50% social affordable housing, something, you know, we need more of in major urban projects to solve the housing position we have in the country. For us, it, it's really a validation of the long-term strategy we've set for the company to allocate more to residential. It's really a 5- to 10-year earnings driver for us, and particularly in the apartment segment of our strategy. We still have to finish financial close with the client, which will take most of this year. There's still site preparation, planning, and engagement with the local community, so the earliest start, we think, is 2027.
And then the first completion's FY31 . So as I said, it's a five- to ten-year earnings strategy for us. But in the meantime, it's quite capital light. We really only need to invest in the team costs, which will be capitalized to progress those planning and community outcomes. And then over time, once we start to develop vertically, we'll also look to bring in capital partners.
Thank you. Thank you. Just one final one. I don't know if you can make some comment on this. Just on the process with the Lendlease acquisition. Obviously, you know, we're all waiting for the report potentially next month, but any discussions or anything that you can shine a light on, given the increased market focus on this?
Yes, Suraj, we are in a very good dialogue and engagement with the commission. As we've said before, we believe we have compelling reasons why competition's not lessened in this transaction. The commission put out a statement of issues. Their preliminary views on you know seven corridors were you know green light, but then they've got some questions on the others. We are in collaborative discussions with the commission. They've got an important job to do and they have highlighted twelfth of September as the next date. So really, that's the timeline we're working with. Following that you know if we get more clarity, then we will come back to the market and update our guidance, depending on the outcomes of that process.
Just on the potential outcomes, Tarun, is it essentially an all or nothing outcome that you're expecting? Or I'm just trying to get a sense of potential outcomes there.
Suraj, I've just got to respect the process with the commission. It's inappropriate for me to speculate on where it comes, but as I said, we remain focused on making sure we can, you know, bring that portfolio into production over time. But yeah, let's wait till twelfth of September.
Okay. Understand. Thank you so much.
Thanks. We have another question from James Druce at CLSA. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Really quickly, I just wanted to understand what the guidance was for the sell down of land lease projects into partnerships for this year. What sort of quantum that we're talking about for profits?
Yeah, James. Yeah. Well, this year, we'd expect that sell down to be, yeah, from a profit perspective, below last year. Yeah, that's how you should think about it.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. That's the last question we have time for today. I'll now hand back to Tarun for closing remarks.
Thanks. Thank you everyone for joining in and for your questions. We are looking forward to speaking more with you as we commence our roadshow, so we'll sign off there, and thanks all.