Thank you for standing by, and welcome to The Star Entertainment Group FY 2022 full year Results Conference Call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Ben Heap, Chairman. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and welcome to The Star Entertainment Group's FY 2022 results presentation. I'm Ben Heap. I'm the interim chairman of the company. I'm joined by our CFO, Christina Katsibouba, and Mark Wilson, our head of investor relations. Geoff Hogg, our CEO, is preparing for the public hearings in Queensland and so cannot join us today. I'll begin by providing a brief overview of the past year. Christina will then comment on our business performance and provide a trading update. I will then address the regulatory reviews, including our renewal program, and some of the key senior executive and board appointments we've recently made, and conclude with some observations on our priorities for the year ahead. We'll then open it up for questions. FY 2022 was a challenging year. COVID-19 related disruptions and the resourcing and bandwidth impact of responding to regulatory reviews.
That said, the underlying strength of the business has enabled a strong rebound post-COVID, as is particularly evident in Q4. Christina will speak to this in a moment. I would like to take this moment to acknowledge the commitment of our 8,000 team members and express my personal appreciation to them. The depth of the Star team has been tested in the past 12 months and has proven itself. We've also made some important appointments, including specifically our Managing Director and CEO, Robbie Cooke, which I will talk to later. I will just say for now, the quality of the business has afforded us the opportunity to attract some very high quality executives and board members, which will be important in terms of driving future change and growth. I'll now invite Christina to comment on our business performance last year.
Thank you. As Ben mentioned, the year was extremely challenging in a number of respects. With the properties closed for a collective 125 days, several ongoing COVID-19 restrictions, which impacted visitation until they were lifted in the last quarter, and of course, the regulatory reviews. As a result of these, we reported a normalized net loss of $ 32 million. The statutory net loss of AUD 199 million was impacted by the Star Sydney goodwill impairment of AUD 163 million. Encouragingly, however, revenue recovered strongly in the June quarter, which was the first normal domestic quarter for 2.5 years. Domestic revenue was up 11% on pre-COVID levels, with the highlights being slots revenue up 28% and non-gaming up 26%.
The recovery to pre-COVID levels and above was seen across all properties, with the Gold Coast leading the way up 48%, Brisbane up 13%, and Sydney in line. The underlying EBITDA in this final quarter was AUD 119 million, and the total year was AUD 237 million. Turning to the individual property performances, Sydney, in particular, was impacted by the closure of the property for 102 days. Domestic revenue was strong when we were open on an unrestricted basis, and the Omicron wave had passed. In the June quarter, slots revenue was up 17% and table games were down 8%. We opened a number of new dining concepts during the year, including two more Asian offerings. The Gold Coast property performed particularly strongly when restrictions were lifted from March and the domestic borders were opened.
With Australians preferencing domestic holidays, we saw a strong demand in the hotels and indeed across the whole property, and have seen a great resurgence in the conferencing business. Domestic revenue in the June quarter was up 48% on pre-COVID levels. The Dorsett Gold Coast and The Star Residences were opened during the year, adding further amenity and of course, contributing then to the above market growth. The hotel is performing above expected occupancy levels, and we have settled more than 90% of the apartments. The second tower construction is underway, and all those apartments have been pre-sold. Brisbane had a slower start to the second half as a result of the floods and the COVID restrictions, but we saw an immediate improvement when the restriction mandating for vaccinated-only guests was lifted on the 14th of April.
In the June quarter, domestic revenue was up 13% and slots were up 26%. As recently advised, Queen's Wharf Brisbane is expected to open from the second half of 2023, and the total project costs are expected to be up 10% on prior guidance of AUD 2.6 billion. When looking at operating costs on page 16, the expenses for the total group were up 14% to AUD 909 million. The comparison to FY 2021 is not directly meaningful because in the prior year, it included JobKeeper and other incomparable and disrupted trading periods.
The costs this year have also been impacted by the tight labor market, inflationary pressures, the larger footprint in the Gold Coast, the regulatory reviews, and an increased investment in the regulatory and compliance functions that we have already started, and Ben will talk to this in a little while. The underlying operating costs in the fourth quarter of AUD 268 million represent the first normal trading base in two and a half years, and it reflects these impacts. For 2023, FY 2023, I should say, we expect a further increase to this run rate for any changes in business volumes. The ongoing tight labor market and inflationary pressures, noting the new EBAs in Sydney and Brisbane, and the Gold Coast one that's on foot.
The additional renewal program implementation costs and some further headcount investment in high-risk areas such as the compliance risk, AML and harm minimization. Turning to the balance sheet and CapEx. Balance sheet remains sound. Net debt has declined to AUD 1.15 billion, and we have approximately AUD 513 million of liquidity on hand. Based on these current trends, we do not foresee that we'll require covenant relief for the FY 2023 testing date. CapEx was AUD 141 million in the year, well below depreciation and amortization of AUD 208 million. For the year ahead, we also expect CapEx to be about AUD 150 million, which is down from the prior guidance of AUD 175 million, and some additional JV equity contributions of AUD 115 million, which include the additional Queen's Wharf investment as previously advised.
Regarding asset sales, we continue to progress those. AUD 170 million of the first tranche of the treasury asset sale is expected to be settled later this calendar year, and AUD 78 million in the second tranche, in the second half of the financial year. The Union Street property at Pyrmont, the compulsory acquisition process is underway, and this is expected to be settled later this calendar year. We continue to explore options for the Sheraton Grand Mirage on the Gold Coast, and we are also exploring ways to unlock the underlying value of the group's property assets. Finally, closing with the trading update. The charts on page five of the presentation show revenue relative to pre-COVID levels, and importantly, the trend into July and August.
In the period from 1 July to 18 August 2022, group domestic revenue is up 9% on pre-COVID levels. Sydney is in line, the Gold Coast is up 26%, and Brisbane is up 18%. Thanks, Ben.
Thanks, Christina. A couple of comments I'd like to make on the renewal program, which is obviously integral to our goal of earning back the trust and confidence of our regulators. Indeed, all of our stakeholders. Through it, we're seeking to build a more robust and sustainable business by strengthening our corporate governance, renewing our culture, and uplifting our processes and controls. The program is being led by Mr. Scott Wharton, who joined us a few weeks ago, and will evolve to address the outcomes of the reviews that are being conducted by Mr. Bell SC here in New South Wales, and the review being conducted by the Honorable Justice Gotterson in Queensland. However, it's important to point out that we're not starting from scratch.
In fact, we've completed a number of changes over the past several years to improve our operations and reduce risk, and to deliver better outcomes for our stakeholders. By way of example, we've ceased all work with junket operators, we've closed our offshore offices, we've stopped the use of higher risk overseas payment channels, and we've ceased using CUP insofar as gaming. We've also suspended international and domestic rebate play, although I note that that's a part of the business that in due course we will seek to re-enter once we're comfortable that our processes and controls meet our requirements. In recent months, we've also made some important senior leadership appointments. Robbie Cooke, I've already referenced. He has the expertise and the experience to lead The Star as we rebuild trust and confidence. Mr.
Scott Wharton, who's joined us as the CEO of The Star here in Sydney, and is our Group Head of Transformation with a mandate to transform the Sydney property and our processes and controls across the organization. We have several more senior management appointments to come in the coming weeks and months. We're also well advanced on our board renewal, with three Directors being announced in recent times. Michael Issenberg, together with recently Anne Ward and David Foster. We're taking action across the business, and our commitment is to transparency at every level. Some examples include enhancements we're making to our corporate governance framework, which is really about making sure our three lines of defense are working effectively as they should. We have a pathway with respect to cultural reform.
That's all about embedding the values and behaviors that will underpin confidence in our decision-making at all levels. We're uplifting our investigations in integrity, our financial crime, and our risk and compliance processes, controls and systems. One that I'm particularly proud of is the work we're doing with respect to proactive harm minimization. What we're calling safer gambling at The Star, which is an important shift in the way we take on the responsibility for ensuring that we're creating a safe environment for all of our patrons. We're investing in additional training for our team members, and we've made important commitments to have the right level of funding and resourcing to ensure that we can make an efficient and meaningful change. Finally, many of you will have seen this.
We've proactively appointed an independent monitor, Allen & Overy Consulting, to assure both the board of The Star and also our regulators that our renewal program remains on track and we're addressing the findings that come from the New South Wales and Queensland inquiries. Now a couple of comments on our priorities for the year ahead. Clearly, the renewal program itself is a key priority. At its heart, we're committed to properly demonstrating our suitability to hold our casino licenses in New South Wales and Queensland. This is part of a larger transformation platform to create world-class experiences for our guests and members, headlined by our multi-billion dollar developments in Brisbane and on the Gold Coast. We're obviously well advanced with the construction of the Queen's Wharf Brisbane project and preparing for its opening next calendar year.
We continue to progress the construction of tower 2 on the Gold Coast, with tower 1 now up and operating fabulously. We're excited that we have real opportunity to develop our Sydney property, with a tower here a real possibility. This focus on renewal and transformation doesn't mean that we'll slip with respect to the current business operations. In fact, one thing that's been a real strength is how effectively the business has run the existing operations given the complexities of recent years. We run three live casinos and over 50 hospitality venues today, and our leaders are acutely focused on revenue growth in a post-COVID environment together with the importance of cost control. That discipline has been a strength in the past and will continue to maintain that discipline.
Also recognizing we operate in competitive environments, obviously here vis-a-vis Crown. In each of our markets, our patrons, our guests have alternatives in terms of their entertainment requirements. It's for us to offer a world-class proposition, which is our commitment to them. Finally, and picking up on some things that Christina said, we continue with our asset sales program, and we'll continue to explore opportunities to unlock the underlying value of the group's property portfolio, where that's a benefit to all of our shareholders. With that, I'll hand it back to the operator to moderate a Q&A discussion.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask a question. Your first question comes from Justin Barratt from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thank you very much for your time today. Ben, I noted you sort of comment that the renewal program will reflect your commitment to transparency at every level. I just wanted to ask, is there any chance that you will make public, I guess, a list or a task list under that renewal program that will enable us to follow your progress against your renewal program over time?
Justin, thanks for the question. The answer to that is yes, absolutely. We've held off doing that to date because it's important we see what Mr. Bell has to say in the coming weeks. That will clearly factor into that program. Our commitment is that we will make that information available and then regularly provide updates, both to the investment community, also to for each. I expect we'll be putting that up on our website to make sure everyone is aware of our progress against those milestones. I'd anticipate that will be for at least a couple of years to track that progress.
Fantastic. More recently, I think at the half year result, I guess Star had noted that, I guess the older demographic had yet to return in significant numbers to your casinos. I just wanted to see if there had been any progress on that throughout the second half of the year. Just essentially try to understand, are there any other sort of structural shifts in gameplay that we should be aware of, since the recovery commenced in the second half?
Thanks, Justin. I'll take those. The first question around the older demographic. Certainly, as I mentioned in my speech earlier, the restrictions made a big difference. The lifting of those restrictions made a big difference, especially in Brisbane and some of that, mandated vaccination, but also the masks as well. That was across all three properties. Revenue bouncing back to above pre-COVID levels certainly has been done with all our demographic, from more younger people to older people. We haven't seen any difference in either of those that would suggest that's changed. Regarding structural shifts, I guess your question is around slots versus tables. We definitely have seen, as I mentioned, slots outperforming tables. Our view of that is. Maybe it comes down to a couple of things.
The first one is when people were working from home, it was easier to connect with that product in your local area. Whereas for tables, given we're the only offering, you know, it was easier to sort of break that connection for a little while. It's got a slower period to recover. I guess the second thing is some of tables, especially in Sydney, is a beneficiary of international travel, especially from China. Until we do see some of that Chinese customer come back when their restrictions are lifted, we may see tables at that lower level. Certainly, there's no long-term structural shift. In fact, our confidence regarding table games and the demand we're seeing, especially in Brisbane and Gold Coast, gives us a lot of confidence going forward.
Great. Thanks very much.
Thank you. Your next question comes from David Fabris from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, Ben. Hi, Christina. I have a few questions. Just firstly, I mean, you guys have made comments on the strong revenue trends you've seen, in the start of the period here. You've made specific mention on Crown Sydney and the competition, which you haven't seen an impact as yet. Can you maybe talk to how you're thinking about that impact in the near term and possibly the longer term so we can sort of frame that out for a process around that as well?
Yeah. Thanks, David. Look, it is so early to tell. It's only been, you know, two weeks. At the time of writing the report, it was even less than that. It's gonna take us a little while to see this impact, right? We'll keep measuring this like we do all our revenue. I guess some good points of milestone for us will be at the three-month mark, and certainly by the time we get to the AGM, we'll have a better update. We've been preparing for this for a while, David, so, you know, our investments in Sovereign and in Oasis, we believe is an absolutely competitive offer.
We think the breadth of our product, the range, the accessibility of the property and the product as well, and the fact that our customers are loyal and have proven to be loyal throughout this COVID period, gives us a lot of confidence. I'm not saying that there won't be an impact. It's just that it's too early to tell. We'll adjust accordingly, our OpEx spend as we see it come through.
Yeah. Gotcha. Thanks. Just around the comments on asset sales, can you just remind us what you paid for the Sheraton Grand Mirage on the Gold Coast and when you think that asset might be realized? Then secondly, just with OpCo/PropCo, I mean, we were made to understand that Sydney was well advanced despite the Bergin R eview. The commentary in the presentation's pretty vague. Can we kind of get a feeling for where you're at for an OpCo/PropCo in Sydney or whether this has been expanded into other assets across the portfolio?
Thanks, David. It's Mark Wilson. Firstly, to address the Sheraton Grand Mirage, that is an asset of which we own 50% in conjunction with our JV partners. We paid AUD 140 million for that asset back in 2017. There is an asset sale process underway, and we will only sell if we do get an appropriate price on that asset. In terms of timing, you know, difficult to determine. Really depends on the level of interest, but we are seeing strong demand at this point. Secondly, I'll sort of address the comments in relation to the property, you know, potential initiatives in relation to our property assets. A little bit of a recap since we last updated the market.
There was an active process underway in relation to the potential sale of an interest in the Sydney property. We did have strong interest. We were in exclusive due diligence with a particular partner, and there was a lot of external interest outside of that. What became apparent, though, going through the process was that it was going to be difficult to actually transact given the regulatory uncertainty that was underway. You know, we had the Bergin R eview. We also did require a regulatory approval to conclude a transaction. Given the changes that had taken place, it was also a good opportunity for the Group to reassess whether that was the most appropriate strategy. You know, collectively, you know, we are looking at opportunities to better recognize the underlying value of the Group's property assets.
Now, that's a piece of work that is underway. It will take a little bit of time to work through. We are looking firstly at how to best recognize that value.
Okay. Thanks for that. Just one final question for me. Just around the CapEx piece, we saw that cost increase come through on Queen's Wharf Brisbane. You've got the Gold Coast Tower Two development going on. How should we think about further risks to increases in the CapEx for those two developments?
Yeah. Thank you for the question. So as we've disclosed, it's our estimate of the cost at this stage is 10% above the original $2.6 billion investment. There's been huge amount of work to get to the bottom of that number, and we're not taking that number as if it's final. We are continuing to work with our JV partners and with DBC management to bring that number down and control as much as possible. I don't see at this stage that there will be any more, but you know, the construction sector is under pressure for cost. We'll just be monitoring that closely.
Great, just on Gold Coast Tower 2, is there any risk to CapEx increases there?
No, that's fully contracted.
Great. That's all for me. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Matt Ryan from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just looking at the fourth quarter run rate that you've provided, just hoping if you could give us some color on, I guess, the margin performance in that quarter and how you expect for that to change moving forward. The two things I'm thinking a little bit about is obviously pretty strong outperformance of slot versus tables, which I would have thought had a positive margin impact. Then also just digging in a little bit further to your comments about the potential for increased costs moving forward. Can you just provide some color around those things, please?
Yeah, of course. Let's pick on cost first, because that will drive a lot of that margin impact. The way we've thought about the way to give this guidance is the $268 million in the last quarter, as I said, is the sort of first normal run rate that we've had in the last 2.5 Years. It has also got the impact of, you know, quite a tight labor market that we've had, you know, a few years of CPI since the last normal time we had, trading a couple of years ago. And it has had investment in some of the risk and compliance areas that, Ben talked about that we've already started investing in capability in those.
There's some, you know, Bergin and other inquiry costs in there. For the next year, some of those, you know, the inflationary costs between 5%-10% will carry. The EBAs that are on foot will need to come through. We will have a little bit more in compliance and those regulatory costs as well. But maybe some of the one-offs in the Bergin Reviews will be replaced, but they'll likely be replaced with renewal and sort of increasing our capability and readiness. I would take that run rate and adjust for those things that I've just talked about. From a revenue point of view, the mix that we've seen in Slots kind of ahead of Table continued into that July period.
As you've seen on the chart on page five, as table starts to come back, you will see that margin come down, and it has. I said it would take a little bit longer than slots, but it has recovered. Especially in Sydney, if we continue to see, you know, that growth coming back, it will put a little bit on that table games margin. Would then also just factor in Crown as well. The way that we'll think about managing that competitive impact is to just watch closely what happens with volume, and we'll adjust the labor in the table games accordingly. At the moment, it's too early for me to comment on the timing and how that might pan out.
Okay. Thank you. Could you summarize by just saying that there's only downward pressure on margins from what you've sort of spoken about?
Because of Crown, because of a little bit more in compliance and sort of regulatory and those areas uplift, yes.
Okay. I mean, there's a lot that's changed over the last few years with a whole bunch of things. Can you just remind us of what sort of seasonality you have seen in the past, in particular on the main floor during the fourth quarter?
Yeah. I guess the main difference that we've seen has been in Queensland. Sydney, it's too short of a period to tell. In Queensland, particularly in the Gold Coast, what normally would happen is we'd get to March and then trade would come off. Not a way off, but definitely in Gold Coast, you'd see that off-peak period come through. We haven't seen that this year, and that's why some of that result you've seen at 48% up has been so strong. Some of that is the some of that's that conferencing business that's coming through. Some of it is because, you know, people in Gold Coast have migrated there, and there's people preferring domestic holidays. Some of that maybe won't be as much as in prior years.
It has, as you can see in the second, in the new financial year where we say it's come off, it's not quite at 48%, I would say that that is probably an indication more of the seasonality of the winter period through those two properties. But, other than that, no, Matt.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Darshana Nair from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Morning, team. My first question is on the goodwill impairment in the Sydney casino. Can we please discuss the key assumptions that's changed versus the last time the goodwill was reviewed? Also, given the regulatory uncertainties even in Queensland, how do we think about the risks at that end?
Thank you. I think the first question was on the impairment. Required every year to make sure that we factor in the risks present in our business into our accounts. This is nothing new. The Sydney property is definitely in a state of uncertainty. That's well documented. The regulatory changes have meant we seek judgment, we've paused rebates, and of course, some of that international visitation from China hasn't yet come back. The outcomes from the Bergin Review are unknown. With these factors, we've increased the risk weighting in the discount rate for that property, and that's resulted in that impairment to the goodwill for Sydney. That's the AUD 162 million.
It's been recognized in the depreciation line, and it's, you know, reiterating that it's a non-cash adjustment, but we do still remain confident in the future outlook of the business. Sorry, what was the second part of the question?
Sorry, I was also asking if there's any risk on the Queensland side, especially given it's also reliant on the international visitation.
The models during our year-end. We've done the same, applied the same level of risk, and there hasn't been any impairment in those properties.
I meant to say if you expect, you know, given there's regulatory uncertainties there, should we think about that being fine, or have you also increased the risk rates there, like in terms of the discount rates?
We haven't changed the discount rates with respect to the Queensland assets at this point. As we work our way through those inquiries, we'll always consider those things appropriately. With respect to Queensland and with respect to New South Wales for that matter as well, our focus is to ensure that we are evidencing to both Mr. Bell and Justice Gotterson that we're making the necessary changes in order to protect the integrity of both our suitability and therefore the licenses. We'll await for Mr. Bell and Justice Gotterson to reach their own findings on that front. We believe the progress we've made and is what we indicated in our closing submissions to Mr.
Bell indicate that we are suitable as a casino operator.
Got it. Secondly, also quickly on the covenants for FY 2023. Can you quickly remind us what used to be the normalized covenants given that there's no relief this year?
At the year-end, we met the adjusted covenant. The adjusted covenant was annualizing of the second half earnings, and that was at 2.8%. Now, that was due to the amendment. I think on an actual basis, we were above 4%. From the rest of the financial year and given the run rate is, as I said, about AUD 119 million in the last quarter, we don't expect to require any relief in the second half. Depending on what happens with the Bergin Review, we could be sitting at under 2.5x .
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Larry Gandler from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Thanks, guys. A few questions from me. I think as part of the New South Wales legislation that passed, carded gaming will be mandatory. I'm just wondering what needs to happen over the next couple of years for you to implement that, and how do you guys see it impacting your business given what's played on loyalty at tables and EGMs in Sydney?
Yeah. Thanks, Larry. I just want to start off by saying we're supportive of the New South Wales legislation and the changes that have come through. They're appropriate for the sector, and we've been vocal about our support of those from the Bergin Review as well. Suffice to say, we're pleased with the transition for the carded play and the cashless limits. The good thing is that for both of those, they were in our long-term thinking for the technology and a transformation that we think needs to happen in the business. From a cashless point of view, we're already on our journey, and we're close to releasing some products both in Queensland and in New South Wales that will deal with that.
It will take a couple of years to get people for the customer adoption to happen. You know, the, as I said, we're pleased on that two-year period to happen. In terms of the carded play, it's something that we'll need to work through. Certainly, there's quite a bit of technology out there that can really make the difference between a you know, a seamless customer experience to a one that's not particularly good. It's just gonna take a couple of years for us to make sure that there is something that addresses both what the government is seeking in terms of risk reduction, but also means our customers don't have an onerous process when they first come in the door.
It's super important for us given that we've got so much of our business is, you know, international play or uncarded play.
Mm.
Asian guests. Yeah.
It sounds like outcomes really hinge on execution and the type of procedure technology that's used rather than.
Yeah, that's.
whether it's carded play or not.
Yeah, that's right, Larry. It can make all the difference. You know, the good thing is there actually is some good technology out there. You know, I was looking at something last week, and I think it can really make the difference between, you know, what we, you know, we sit here and think, you know, "How could this possibly be implemented?" There is stuff out there that I think can really be quite seamless.
Larry, I'll just add to what Christina said. It's not as if this isn't a broad trend right through community.
Mm-hmm.
Cardless or cashless is, you know, applying right across all of retail. We as an industry are very much running with the tide on this, and it does create some really significant opportunities for us to look after our guests from a loyalty perspective, but also to look after them from a safer gambling perspective. We see only upside, but you're absolutely right in pointing out it's all about effective execution. As Christina said, the key for us was that the legislation provided a reasonable transition period. A couple of years is very helpful.
Okay. The inflationary costs, this is a separate question here. Inflationary costs with regards to, you know, that fourth quarter run rate of AUD 268, you're calling out 5%-10%. Is that, EBA, you know, driven, or is it more sort of, issues you're confronting in the spot market, having to pay overtime and having to perhaps, pay overs for labor 'cause it's difficult to get?
There was a little bit of that in that last quarter because of people being away. You know, there's a lot of absenteeism because of COVID and so forth. There is a little bit of that overtime there. I guess the way to think about next year is the EBAs are known. For example, you know Sydney's 2.75%, Brisbane is 3%, Gold Coast is pending, and that's gonna be, you know, we need to wait and see for that one. We've got our normal salaried roll increases, so that's in accordance with normal pay inflation. Then I guess the other areas where we see it is the cost of food and beverage and those consumables. Also things like insurances as well and some of those costs.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Rohan Sundram from MST Financial. Please go ahead.
Hi, team. Thanks for that. Just on the environment, a general question around if at all, if you are seeing any consumer pressures and how you're seeing that impacting your player base, in particular, how the loyalty customer is performing versus the unrated player. I'm just asking with regards to slide five, where it looks like slots had a good peak in the second week of July, but I'm assuming there's seasonality in that. Then it seems to have dropped off. Any comment around that would be much appreciated. Thank you.
The way we think about it, Rohan, is really in business, you know, I think in the last 20 years it's averaged a CAGR of 3%-3.5%, and I think it only dipped once when there was indoor smoking bans introduced. Our confidence then on the underlying business is there. The loyalty that you've seen from our customers when we were able to reopen without restriction was pleasing and it bounced right back. Even though we don't have some of that visitation from overseas and you know, some of that broader visitation into CBDs, which is you know, experienced in other sectors as well, it says a lot about that loyal customer and the resilience of the spend for the sector.
Thanks, Christina. One last one, just around no longer requiring covenant relief for FY 2023. Is it as simple to say that we should assume dividends to resume in first half, or are there other factors such as the regulatory environment at play?
Yeah. Thanks, Rohan. That'll be a matter for the board. During the period where we had the covenant waivers in place, obviously we were restricted from paying out those dividends until we were below the 2.5x . Once it's no longer in play, sure, I think the board will be in a position to reassess. Fair, Ben.
Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. Obviously, a matter for the board at the time, but the board, you know, is well aware a lot of our investors value that dividend stream. Cognizant of the different stakeholders we're seeking to solve for, we certainly do wanna get back to dividends when we're able to.
Thanks, Ben and Christina.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Simon Thackray from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Thanks, Christina. Thanks, Ben. Just a couple of follow-ups, actually. Just in terms of the inflation expectation to 5%-10% on the operating expenses, I just wanna clarify, is that against the full FY 2022 full year operating expense run rate?
It's for that last, so I wouldn't take the full year of AUD 909 million. You really need to look at that last quarter.
Against the AUD 268 million in Q4?
Yes.
there's 5%-10% on that number, yeah? or on the run rate of that number or 5%-10% against that number?
Yeah, as I was saying before, Simon, it's not 5%-10% across the board. There you sort of need to break up the buckets. Labor, apart from some overtime, is known to us because we've got the EBAs in hand. We've got normal labor pay rises. The other areas are, you know, where there is some pressure is in the supply chain, so it's cost of goods sold and other higher risk sort of areas like insurances and those things. So I wouldn't necessarily be applying 10% on everything.
No, I appreciate that. It seems to me that you've got pretty good line of sight to your cost buckets. You've got the reform package or the reform investment. Some of it is one-off and as you've pointed out, but that will, as that rolls away, it's replaced by permanent costs for regulatory
Increased regulatory oversight or increased compliance. I'm really just trying to understand the outlook for costs on a permanent basis, one, and then against that, to talk to the trends you're seeing both in Q4 and now. Do you put down to a sort of a post-COVID consumer blowout? You know, what's your expectation for the business, particularly in the Gold Coast, as to where revenue lands more normally in FY 2023?
Yeah. I'll pick on the revenue first. In some of the areas where it's quite an over rebound, like in the hotels and in the F&B in Queensland, they may, you know, come off a little bit, and we've seen that a little bit in the Gold Coast as well, and I mentioned earlier about seasonality. You know, the upside to that is that the higher margin part of the business, which is slots and gaming generally, seems to be following the same path that it was in that last quarter. In fact, if anything, you know, table games in Sydney is still recovering to be at close or equal to pre-COVID levels.
From a long term, I think the revenue that we're seeing in the you know period to date and in July and in that last quarter is reliable to continue. Your question about cost is-
Yeah
As I said, you know, point you to mostly focusing on adding, you know, between 2.5% and 4% across depending on which property you're looking at for labor. I would include a general, you know, maybe between 5% and 10% on anything, not labor. I would say for cost and for compliance and investment in other areas, you know, somewhere between maybe AUD 10 million and AUD 15 million. But again, that number, we're working through, we'll be in a better position at the AGM because as Ben mentioned earlier, there is a period where we're undertaking at the moment to do a very detailed plan on our renewal program that will throw out some of this allocation of resources.
Detail. Yeah. Okay. That's fantastic. Thank you both.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Suthesh Jeyakandan from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, Ben, Christina, Mark. I just had a follow-up on costs. Looks like a lot of moving parts in there. I guess, can you give us a sense of the quantum of the costs that are maybe more temporary in nature, such as maybe some of the implementation costs or Sydney, Queensland review costs? Assuming some of these won't come back into FY 2024, how should we think about that?
Yeah. Mark, I did say they were temporary, but I said they would be replaced. I'll give you an example of something that's temporary in the last quarter is, you know, some of the cost around, you know, not necessarily the lawyers, but there'll be consultants that are helping us do preparedness for different things. Those I would say are one-off, and they're difficult because in the quarter, if you just annualized it comes to a, you know, a big number that isn't quite meaningful. I'm saying that one-off is giving us a little bit of, let's say, space that in the next year will be replaced by the capability that we need in risk compliance in all these areas.
You know, this renewal program, you know, is gonna take the next two and probably three years. The cost in total is gonna be fairly material, but and a lot of it will be probably front-loaded.
I'll just add a thought to that as well. I'm sort of trying to sort of put a wrap around some of these or help you understand some of these points. There has absolutely been additional cost which we've been responding to Bell and responding to Gotterson and similar. Those costs, a lot of those costs are one-off and will roll off, but there is equally a sort of a pickup of regulatory costs to come in. Important offset to that, though, is I'll describe it as a cost discipline, which we've been pretty proud of over the past few years, and that will continue to be important for us.
The balance we are seeking to navigate here is we recognize we will add additional costs and we recognize we're facing into some challenge with things like CPI and so forth. However, cost discipline is, you know, high on our agenda to make sure that, you know, that we keep that sort of cost base in the right territory through this year and going forward.
Okay. That's helpful. My second question is just on the customer base. I think at the first half result, you mentioned about 70% of the customer base had been reactivated. Are you pretty much back to 100% in early July, August trading, or should we expect some incremental uplift from further customer activation from here?
Oh, we're pretty close, Mark, now. We're pretty close to 100.
Okay. Got it. Last quick one was just on Queen's Wharf and the incremental 10% uplift in costs. Just sort of a quick one on whether there's any sort of slack that you've built into that number for potential cost increases going forward, or is that the actual projected increase from here?
Like I was saying earlier, there's not necessarily slack as much as there is a significant amount of effort going in to manage it and potentially manage it down. I'm not calling that yet. It's just across many people's agenda to manage that effectively.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. Your next question comes from Stewart Oldfield from Field Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning, all. Christine, you made that reference to visitation into the CBD, and you're speaking about Crown Sydney. How do you see the increased competitive threat in our post-pandemic world from some of the bigger clubs, you know, offering a similar offering like Mounties?
Yeah. Stewart, Our market share is holding quite well. In the Gold Coast, where we've added the amenities, we've clearly had above-market growth and grown market share there. I don't think the competitiveness from local clubs has necessarily changed that much. You know, the point of difference for our properties remains unchanged. There's an offering that our loyal customers can't get from those clubs. Many are competitive advantages. I won't go through them now. That definitely hasn't changed. As I said, we would've seen it when the restrictions came away and nothing happened. That's not what happened. I know that's a double negative, sorry. As soon as those restrictions came away, customers came straight back.
As I said earlier, we've reactivated almost, or we're getting close to 100% now. That says to me it's still appropriate, notwithstanding, you know, you've got the CBD. I think where the difference with that CBD issue is, it's that casual customer, right? It's not so much the loyal, it's that casual Friday night, Saturday night customer.
Got it.
Yeah.
You made that reference to table games still recovering. What proportion of tables in Sydney are now open? Have you got any roadmap for reopening more? Indeed, have you got the staff to facilitate those re-
Yeah.
Reopenings of tables?
Yeah. All our tables, except for that international and those salons that are dedicated for international guests are open. The demand is strong. As I said, the Sovereign Room is doing particularly well. It's activated very well, and especially on weekends, we have some great promotions that bring the customers in. We had a good one on the 8th of August, actually. No, I'm not seeing anything on the table side that would suggest the demand's not there in that high end. Yes, the dealer pool is as it was. Even pre-COVID, we maintained our dealers throughout the shutdown period.
You know, we made a decision to, especially in the last year, continue paying people, so we ensured that we kept those dealers and that's worked and is paying off.
Excellent. Thank you.
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Heap for closing remarks.
Thank you. Thanks everyone for joining us today and looking forward to speaking to a number of you over the coming days. Enjoy the rest of your day.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.