Good morning, and welcome to Money3's first half financial year 2021 results webinar. From the company today, we have CEO Scott Baldwin and CFO Siva Subramani. Following a short presentation, we'll take the opportunity for Q&A, which can be submitted so via the Q&A button at the bottom of the screen. Scott, I'll now hand it over to you to get started. Thanks.
Thank you, Simon, and thank you investors and other stakeholders that have joined us here today to review the first half results. Siva and I join you from our homes as we are part of the lockdown in Victoria as all of our staff at Money3 in Melbourne and, at this point in time, Auckland as well, working from home, continuing to run our business. If you can move to the next slide, Siva. Just a bit of background for those of you that haven't followed the story in the repositioning. We've spent a number of years now, for those that have followed the journey, reposition the business. I'm here today, we can say that we are very much a customer-focused consumer and commercial finance company. There is some call-outs further on in the deck about the commercial offering. That's new. We're calling that out.
That comes with our AFS acquisition. We now have very strong brands in both Australia and New Zealand, and covering those sectors. As a business, we address a very large addressable market. The AUD 6 billion of used car financing, a larger sum, about AUD 8 billion, of new car financing, as well as the personal loan segment for our repairs and maintenance product that we offer. It is a multi-billion dollar market opportunity that the group faces. At this point in time, we're currently funding over AUD 30 million a month in assets for consumers. One of the things driving our business is that ubiquitous approach from whether it be broker, dealer, or direct application from a customer straight through into our processing engine room in Bundoora, and Auckland, and Brisbane. That technology driver has made it faster and easier for customers to interact with us.
Finally, one of the pillars of the strength of this business is our customer care or collections team. The strength of that business has made it very easy for us to acquire a business, which we'll talk a little bit about, General Motors Finance Australia, we've rolled that straight into our existing processes and our existing software, and we're able to collect that quite seamlessly. Post the acquisition, you're looking at about a half a person. These are the three core brands that Money3 has today. Money3, which is our non-conforming automotive loans, plus our repairs and maintenance loans. Automotive Financial Services based in Brisbane, the acquisition that we completed on the 2nd of February.
Just note the call-out there, while it does say January, to give you a picture of where we are today, we've included the AFS loan book and GMF loan books into this picture, so that you can see what the total loan book looks like on a go-forward basis. Then in New Zealand, we have our Go Car Finance brand. All of these brands participate in funding primarily of assets. What you'll see later in the deck is primary consumer assets. They all face very large market opportunities, and we're very small players, sort of in that 1%-3% range of the market opportunity. There's lots of opportunity for scale and growth, in all three business units. Some of the highlights for the first six months of the year, although these two did settle, most of the work settle in early January, February.
Most of the work was done in the first half. We acquired Automotive Financial Services. We think that as a product, it was very good strategic positioning for us, allowing the group to make the most of its distribution through the Money3 network, but offering what AFS does. It's a near-prime automotive product, roughly twice the average size of a typical Money3 loan. In the month of January, our first month of owning that, nearly 90% of people apply for a loan there are their own homeowners. It is a different credit profile that attracts customers to that product, and it allows us to continue to grow our business. General Motors Finance Australia, this is playing to our strength of collections. We've acquired that book.
Within a matter of days, our customer care team were able to roll that into our existing software platforms and systems. We estimate roughly on a go-forward basis about half a headcount to manage that book. We had a very strong start to the second half of the year. As a result of a variety of stimulus as well as our, I think, very good approach to working from home. We've had a lot of people transition to home. We haven't had a lot of downtime. We've seen a lot of stimulus. Our cash flow has been exceptionally strong. We also started in December a capital raise for AUD 52 million, which completed in January, with an SPP. All of those were well oversubscribed. We thank all of those that participated in the capital raise.
That money will be used principally to fund the ongoing growth of the business in New Zealand. The loan book, that's where that money's going and allowing us to continue to draw down on our Bank of New Zealand facility. The other part is also to fund opportunistic acquisitions as they may become available. As we were saying, record cash collections, AUD 165 million, 23% up on year before. Our loan book was up around 10% with 23% increase in cash collections. You can see the impact of the stimulus. Credit quality has continued to improve across the business. This is not just as a result of stimulus, but also as we've refocused some teams in terms of their collection efforts, making a lot of conversations with customers is really what's driving that improvement.
Finally, the foundation of many years to come has been the Credit Suisse deal that we did for AUD 250 million. We anticipate that that will repay the Fortress debt in around June or July of this year. The cost of funding is roughly a 4% improvement on existing cost of funding, hence why we're saying, when fully deployed, that it will lead to AUD 10 million in interest rate savings. We finally secured a AUD 255 million warehouse facility with Westpac. For those that have followed the journey, you will be well aware that we've been working on that for some time, so delighted that that has now settled. That Westpac facility will fund our Automotive Financial Services business based out of Brisbane.
Many of you would've seen this slide before, but if I can call out the right-hand bars, AUD 474 million was the receivables that we had at the end of December, and we've put in there the acquisitions and the impact that they've had in the business, taking us to roughly AUD 550 million of receivables. That's the result of the Automotive Financial Services business, as well as the General Motors finance book. The General Motors finance book, I'll call out, it's not an ongoing business. It's just a portfolio of receivables that our customer care team will manage the roll-off of that. It will make a solid north of AUD 6 million contribution over three years to the business. If you look at the loan book, you'll see that roughly 96% of our business is consumer automotive lending.
We have a very small segment of commercial lending, and you should think the assets that are being funded there are typically utes and vans and light commercial. It's a very small part of our business, but we're planting this seed so that you can see that this is one of the product arms that we will use to continue the growth of our business. Our personal loan portfolio is a mixture of secured and unsecured personal loans, not for the purchase of a vehicle, typically used for repairs and maintenance of vehicles we've funded in the past. It's a great growth opportunity for our business, and it helps us retain customers and stop them using some of our peers. Most of that funding today is used for repairs and maintenance of the motor vehicle. Just to reiterate the highlights of the half.
Exceptionally strong cash flow over the first half, that is what has driven the increase in revenue. Off the back of that increased cash flow, because what is evident in our portfolio is cash has come from all segments of credit quality, not just the best performers. Some of the poor performers have taken the last six months, taken the opportunity to improve the position of their loan, reduce their arrears, that's what's driving the improvement of credit quality and the reduction in bad debts in the business, which you'll see in the next slide. For New Zealand, I have to call this out. It's just been a fantastic result. We have been in the right place at the right time yet again in New Zealand. We had a new head of the business start there a little over one year ago now.
Working with the founders, we have been able to fund that business better than it has been in the past. When many of our peers have had challenges, we've been able to be there with our existing dealer network to continue to fund vehicles when some of their competitors had some troubles. We also have been able to expand our distribution throughout more dealerships in New Zealand. The combination of doing more with the dealers we had and then bringing some new ones on has really driven strong, solid growth in New Zealand. We haven't changed the credit profile. It really is still the same spread of clients that we're approaching, but we are taking more share than we were 18 months ago in New Zealand. As we spread our distribution, we are picking up more from there as well.
You'll see, too, coming through in the results that post-lockdown, we have a fairly strong bounce back in terms of application volume. Coming into Christmas, it was a record for the group. We certainly saw that November period, when Victoria came out of lockdown and customers in Victoria started to borrow again, really started to drive that loan book growth. The 11%, most of that that you see in the highlights, most of that has occurred in the last two months of the year. We can go next slide, Siva. Really the thing to call out in the financial highlights is the bad debts. You'll notice that's down 20% year-on-year. That is really driven by the financial situation and the stimulus that we have. Also coupled with, I suppose, extra communication.
We took on, as a business, that we would contact all of our customers rather than do blanket advertising. We would just pick up the phone and ring customers to see how they're going. Because certainly on our Money3 product, there's no penalty for early payout. We saw customers favoring us with extra cash, as they tried to make sure that there was no arrears on their car loans, or if they had the opportunity to pay in advance. The impairment provision movement is reflective of that continuing improvement credit quality. You'll note that that's down significantly. If we go through a period of strong growth again, you should expect to see that come back. Nothing to do with declining quality, just growth will mean that we have to write more upfront impairment provisions.
At the moment, it's at record lows as our quality of our book continues to improve. Let's go to the next slide, Siva. I think this slide tells a story about what has happened in the business quite accurately. When COVID first hit in late March, first cases started in February, everyone started to hear about it in March. Lockdowns and restrictions started to happen in April. You can definitely see our new loan originations fell off a cliff, and in fact, in New Zealand, they went to zero for a period of time. You can see very strong rebound in terms of our application volume coming out of COVID, and you can see that as we went back into the second lockdown.
I would put to many investors that what we start to see in that August-September period, why it didn't bounce back as fast as we expected, is starting to see some shortage of vehicles in the market. A record month in November. We certainly have seen that volume start to come back across the business. We expect to see those AUD 30 million a month of vehicles being financed continue. In fact, investors should expect to see us, with AFS coming on board, exceed that AUD 35, getting close to that AUD 40 million a month when you start to see more availability of stock coming in the market. There's quite a bit of bullish movement there at this point in time that we're confident, as long as there's no further lockdowns or restrictions, that this graph continues to show a very positive sign. Improving credit quality.
A little bit hard to read from a first glance, but if I can take you on the journey over the last four years. Dark blue is good, red is bad, essentially. You can see that the strong credit quality, for those that are thinking in the old school, no arrears or zero. The dark blue, light blue, that zero to 30 days is how you might have thought about in the past. Under the new accounting standard, strong and good. You can see that that has improved across the business, and you have more people than we've ever had, either in advance of their loan or having never missed a payment. You also see that the credit impaired segment in our business has really started to shrink off the result of additional cash flow.
Just to set the foundation for the business, because funding is so important for Money3's growth, and it is also important for us to continue that improvement on our return on equity, is complementing the equity that we do have in the business today with more debt funding. The Credit Suisse warehouse that we secured will deliver us a 4% saving. When fully deployed, AUD 10 million of reduced interest expense across the business. I think that will make a big difference in driving next year's NPAT growth that you will start to see. AUD 150 million we currently have with Fortress. We do plan to repay that at the end of this year. Siva will work through those timings, investors should assume a June-July timeframe. The Westpac facility, there has been two parts to this.
Not only has Westpac agreed to fund our AFS business, but they've also provided us with some levels of transactional banking as well, which just improves the efficiency of the business. That's a real win for the business, being able to have our near-prime AFS business funded by Westpac, which is slightly better rates than Credit Suisse, and our Money3 business funded by Credit Suisse. AUD 8.5 million of funding comes from the government initiative, the AOFM, and with the AUD 52 million of new equity just raised, it's giving us the ability to add the equity layer into some new debt facilities. In particular, we are in advanced negotiations with a bank in New Zealand for an additional AUD 40 million securitization warehouse, which we will fund that layer with.
Have a strong cash position, and we also have the ability to acquire any businesses that may come up for sale that fit within our niche, that either give us more product in our vehicle and asset segment or give us greater distribution. Just to recap on AFS. Settled in early January. The best way I think investors should think about this is a product that plugs into the distribution networks of Money3. The AFS business does bring some incremental dealer-based distribution, but essentially, we plug this product into the group, and we start distributing it. There's only a tiny bit of overlap, similar to what you would see with some of our peers, between the AFS product set and the Money3 product set.
This helps us address a wider market than what we had before, and it allows us to take more market share from each of our brokers that we spent a lot of time integrating software with so that we can now fund more of their application volume. We've given you some forecasts there. We also think if you fast-forward 24 months beyond that you should be looking at what we've done with Go Car Finance, which is roughly double those numbers, in terms of indicatively where we think this business can go. It's only early days. We're a little bit over a month into this, but we have started lending again. Little over AUD 2 million out the door in the first month. Certainly expect February, March for that to continue to grow as a business.
As inquiry starts to come back into the AFS business, we expect to talk more about it at future investor days. It's a great business. Next slide, Siva. New Zealand, I really would like people to think of this as the blueprint of where we can take AFS. We acquired it a little bit over two years ago now. It's been a very strong strategic fit with the group, and by strategic fit, I mean cultural fit. The management team of the Go Car Finance business have worked with us, they get where we're going. They've taken a lot of the money that was paid for them, put it back in equity. I really thank Roy and his team for what they've done.
It's been a solid growth engine when not everything is working here in Australia because of lockdown, and you can see that by the 20% contribution to revenue. The opportunity that investors should really call out is still only one in 700 cars in New Zealand is funded by the Go Car Finance, and there's opportunity for that to continue to grow significantly. It's well-funded, well-placed. With Paul joining the team there, we have a good management team, and I think that investors should expect to see more solid contributions from our New Zealand Go Car Finance business. The takeaway here is the left-hand side is what we can do, and the right-hand side of the graphs there is where we see ourselves taking the business. With the recent capital raise, we have around AUD 310 million of equity. It says AUD 391 million there.
That's inclusive of the provisions within the business for impairment on deferred revenue. Just a reminder for all of those, deferred revenue is the unearned application fee. Any fees and charges that don't have cash associated with them are deferred until the future, and are only recognized when cash payments start to come through. With everything that we have today, we have the ability to create AUD 800 million of receivables. We think we're at AUD 600 at the end of this financial year, and we've got everything we need to add another AUD 200 million between now and when we get there. To go from that next step, if you just think of retained earnings and possibly some improving debt, we don't foresee that we need any more capital within the business in order to achieve that goal of getting to AUD 1 billion of receivables.
With some slight movement in our debt facilities and retained earnings, we should be able to then grow from AUD 800 to AUD 1 billion. We're here today saying that we certainly have spent a lot of time restructuring our business, focusing on the product segment that we're in today, getting the funding structure right today. There's four banks associated with this business funding us today, so we don't have a lot of concentration risk. They all fund slightly different portfolios, and we have that ability to grow the business over time from where we are. AUD 800 in short-term, AUD 1 billion in that mid-term, three-year goal.
Currently funding over AUD 30 million a month within the business. You can see back from the other graph, we're getting pretty close to 35. It won't be long before, as a group, we are funding half a billion AUD of assets a year. We should be hitting those sorts of numbers in the next 12-18 months. As a result of doing all of those things, the business moves to a point where we will be getting very close to that 20% return on equity. Should be getting close next year or exceeding 15%. Then you've got that journey as we continue to deploy the rest of that mix of debt and equity. I think the next one's the final slide. Our forecast NPAT is AUD 36 million.
I know that many of you may be asking or expecting that to be slightly stronger than what it is. We've chosen to keep it at AUD 36 million really out of an abundance of caution. We're sitting here in lockdown today in both Melbourne and New Zealand. We know that lockdowns impact some of our new loan originations, so we thought it prudent to put out a number that we think that the momentum in the business gets us across the line. Really through an abundance of caution of what does COVID bring for us. Also expecting to see stable unemployment rates. We also have a target loan book of AUD 600 million for the end of the year. We think that's sort of the range that you should expect us to land within.
We're also very well-funded in order to pursue any strategic acquisitions that give us product or distribution. We're calling out that we anticipate returning to While we've declared an AUD 0.03 dividend for the first half, the board is comfortable to see that that will improve for the full- year, and we're anticipating an AUD 0.09 dividend. The rest of the slide deck are just appendices. I'll hand back to Simon for any questions.
Great. Thanks, Scott. First question. Great result, guys. Just a quick one on guidance. I think you've already answered this, Scott, with regards to the conservative nature and the anticipated contribution around the recent acquisitions. Is there anything else that you sort of want to expand at all on that?
Look, we're confident of having a strong finish to the year, and it's just keeping in mind that there's still a lot of uncertainty in the market at this point in time. There's a lot of tailwinds. Certainly, if things continue to improve in Japan, vehicles will come into Australia, which will drive more vehicles into the used car market, and we should be able to get there. An abundance of caution is why we've put out AUD 36 million NPAT as a guidance.
Great. Thanks, Scott. When are you anticipating to release the AUD 10 million, in a bit of commas, economic outlook provision raised last year?
JobKeeper comes off at the end of March. We are waiting to see what the impact that that has. That will drive our decision and our thinking of what the last quarter looks like as to whether some is released, or whether it's held over until next year. The provision was raised in order to manage the impact of COVID-19. I don't think that we're at the end of that journey. There's still a lot of uncertainty. As things become more certain is when we intend to start releasing that.
Great. Thanks, Scott. Next question. Each year, how many borrowers would you have missed that came off a Money3 loan and went to a competitor because you didn't have the near-prime product?
That's a really good question. Different businesses, we measure that slightly differently. If we sort of were thinking 20 to 30 a day, you're probably in that right ballpark. When we sit and think it through, some of those may not go to competitors, they might change their mind, and that's the uncertainty answer. If it's in that range to 20 to 30 vehicles a day is probably what we think.
Thanks, Scott. Next question. James [Bisognano] at Shaw's. "Congratulations on the results, Scott and Siva. In terms of the AUD 250 million warehouse facility, can you please take us practically through how this will work in terms of the AUD 10 million reduction in cost of funds, and when will the full run of savings begin to roll in?
Well, I think that's a great question for you, Siva.
Thanks, Scott. With the Credit Suisse facility, as you know, we have a AUD 258 million warehouse facility. As Scott mentioned earlier, the interest rates or cost of funds are at least 4% lower than what we have. In terms of how we go in there, we are currently very low leveraged today, with only AUD 120 million out of the AUD 350 million book in Australia being funded through Fortress. Come June, we would roll over that. We've started the facility, but by end of next year, we should gradually increase the leverage as well as the amount of facility that's drawn, which should start to bring up the cost of savings. What we expect is the AUD 10 million will grow over time. Over the next two years, it will slowly build up from here to the AUD 10 million savings.
Don't expect the entire AUD 10 million coming into next year, but in two years' time, when the funds are fully deployed through the Credit Suisse facility, we would have an annual savings of AUD 10 million on a like-for-like basis.
Thanks, Siva. Next question. In terms of your AUD 600 million gross loan book forecast for FY2021 from the AUD 550 where you're at, what's the anticipated source of this growth, and can we assume that it's all organic?
Our assumption is from this point, it is all organic growth. We expect to see it come from the three sources, the three businesses. Certainly New Zealand is going very strongly. We've seen solid growth. If you look at the numbers from June to December, you can see that there's been good growth. There's no reason why that doesn't continue and that they soak up half of that AUD 50 million anticipated growth. If you look at the Australian business, we are seeing good growth within that starting to come back. Confidence comes from being out of lockdown, and you should expect to see that have some more organic growth there. With AFS, remember that business wasn't lending up until about November, just when they had confidence that the business was going to be bought. Every month that improves significantly.
I'm sure investors that have spent time can see that there's been a slight contraction from when we announced to when we settled that deal. That book is now starting to grow again off the back of really starting to ramp up the originations within that space. A little bit of growth coming from all. Strong growth coming out of New Zealand is where I think investors should expect to see that additional AUD 50 million coming from.
Great. Thanks, Scott. The interim dividend of AUD 6.2 million against an NPAT of AUD 19.9 represents about a third of current NPAT. Is there a plan to increase the dividend payout ratio given the strong underlying performance of the business and the significant retained earnings of AUD 91 million?
Yeah. While I know that the board have signaled dividends in the past, if I go back to our last published dividend policy, it was between 30% and 50% of earnings. We have maintained a payout ratio within that range. We've also been very conscious that we just raised some funds, and we have some growth opportunities that we would like to pursue over the next 12 months. The money will go into funding growth of the business, which is our main focus, and we think it prudent to hold it back just a little bit as we fund those, the rollover of some of the debt and those other items.
Providing good trading over the next 6 months, the board intends to come to the AGM with an updated dividend policy and also they put out what they anticipate they're willing to pay at the full- year. Anticipating an AUD 0.09 dividend for the full year.
Great. Thanks, Scott. Next question. How do funding costs on the Westpac facility compare to the Credit Suisse facility? Is there scope to extend that relationship across the broader group?
I know Siva will have the numbers off the top of his head. In terms of Westpac, I don't. I'll let you answer that, Siva
Yeah, absolutely. Thanks, Scott. Look, at this stage, the respective cost of funds are cheaper, again, a number of factors come into play in terms of how the eligibility criteria work between both the facilities. It's not only cost of funds, but the amount of loans that we can fund that makes a whole lot of difference. In the long- term, we do expect the cost of funds in Credit Suisse going further down, as well as opportunity to grow the respective funding on a broader basis as well. Both angles will be pursued in future.
Thanks, Siva. Next question. Did you face any hurdles onboarding origination partners without access to a near-prime product?
Might have to ask that again. Did we have any hurdles?
Did you face any hurdles onboarding origination partners without having access to a near-prime product?
Not overly. Most origination partners or aggregators in the industry have a portfolio of lending. What we pitch to them is it's easier to deal with one party for more than to spread yourself thin and wide. That's certainly the conversation and strategy to go back to those aggregation partners and say. While that may have been an issue several years ago, as we've refocused the business and been very clear that we are, Money3 as a group is an asset funder, we haven't had any issues in that regard.
Great. Next question. Have accelerated repayment rates been maintained or are they normalizing?
Yeah, that really is a great question that surprises us every time. January is still a very good, very strong collections month for us. They have maintained, although it is declining. The impact of additional payments from our budget or forecast, it is coming back to normal. We expect to see some drop off in that April month as we see JobKeeper come to an end. At the end of January, it was still a positive result across our business in terms of collections from where we anticipated to be when we sort of went through that budgeting process in May last year.
Great, thanks, Scott. To what extent have you loosened credit from COVID levels? Presumably, provisions as a percentage of the loan book will increase as you turn the risk taps back on to drive growth.
We've done a lot. Everyone sitting at home has afforded us time to do some projects that we may not have done in the office. One of those that we spent a lot of time on was looking at our risk appetite and our risk profiling across the business. I would say that some elements of our riskier clients, we won't turn that back on at all. After extensive modeling by the team, we think we're better off to focus in other segments. We have started to turn on areas of hospitality is the main one, and tourism, particularly in Queensland, and some other areas. If I go back to when we first went into lockdown, we had blanket rules. They've become far more targeted as time's gone on. To give people an example, we brought in a hospitality rule not to fund.
We found that we weren't funding some people that worked in a hospital, and we lost those deals to a competitor, which we didn't think made any sense when they were fully employed, but because they were coming up in the rules engine as being hospitality. I would say we have been far more targeted in our credit risk appetite as time goes on. We have certainly continued to take a strong stance on casuals, hospitality, and tourism in particular.
Great. Thanks, Scott. Next question. Will the lending facilities you have in place extend to the commercial auto book?
Yes, they do. The commercial business today is only originated through AFS, Automotive Financial Services, and that is funded by Westpac.
Great, thanks. Do brokers tend to favor lenders that have high approval rates across the borrower spectrum, and therefore having the core subprime Money3 offering will help AFS win more of their fair share of deals on a like for like interest rates situation?
The reality is most brokers have a suite of lenders. What we're trying to do is position ourselves as a lender that has the ability to integrate technically. If a broker is operating a Salesforce platform, we have a strong tech back end at Money3, and we're able to integrate with that we can take more of those leads and provide quicker turnarounds. It's more around giving a better quality of service at a faster time than being able to do everything, just driving a broker's decision. I think what's driving that volume will continue to be our ongoing investment in technology, which is about whether it be the customer or the broker, creating a faster, better experience for them to deal with us.
Great, thanks. Next question. Acquisition-wise, are you looking at more product verticals rather than books and rundown?
We have a very strong customer care team. It's well defined, and well-structured processes within our business. Our expectation, certainly, as we start to see the full impacts of COVID, is that we're likely to see other businesses that sit within our verticals that may choose to exit the space. Holden exiting Australia was a good example. We were able to put a fair offer on the table and we were able to roll that into our existing channels and collect that. That will be a focus if other opportunities like that come along and the vendor's able to meet our price expectations. We will focus on that, and we expect to see some opportunities over the course of the next 12-18 months.
Thanks. Next question. Other than the conservatism in the FY impact guidance, are there any other moving parts like lower revenue yield given product or lending mix and timing of interest revenue recognition over the half, given the movement in loan book or more cost investments like commissions or marketing?
Four questions in one there, the yield on AFS is about half of the group yield. Group yield is about 30%, AFS yield is about 15%, is how investors should think about that. The NIM doesn't compress as much because we have cheaper cost of funding, and we also have very low bad debts. A quarter percent of the book is in arrears at AFS. What comes out the bottom end starts to look a lot more similar when you consider the other moving parts in there. In terms of incremental cost in the second half, that's driving some of that. We do have some acquisition costs as a result of acquiring these businesses that we will expense over the course of this six months that wouldn't otherwise be there.
The book, like the AFS book, sorry, the General Motors book starts to return to normal with about half a person, certainly in FY 2022 and beyond. We also see some, in terms of growing our executive team, we see some further investment into our marketing and marketing arms coming. All of those are relatively immaterial in the scheme of things.
Great. Also, as you get closer to a billion-dollar loan book, how do you envisage the mix of subprime, near-prime, or prime loans, and how should we think about effective interest revenue yield and NIM achievable?
What we've said to the market is, if you look at where we are today with the AFS book, it takes about 1.5% of our gross yield as a portfolio. We see a gradual gross yield reduction from that 30% across the portfolio over that three-year journey coming down to circa 25%. If you think of AUD 1 billion of receivable yielding average, 25% gross yield, you're talking about AUD 250 million of revenue. We continue to have conservative, relative to many of the other businesses we look at, revenue recognition where we align all revenue recognition in our business with the collection of cash. Even if we charge an interest rate, fee, or charge, if there is no cash on that loan, it doesn't get recognized.
It gets deferred and pushed into that deferred bucket until such time as it is recognized off the back of cash flows.
Right. Thanks. Last question, Scott. Once GMFA customers have paid out their loan, will they be able to apply for a Money3 loan with a similar rate?
What we intend to do with GMFA is give them the opportunity to take a loan through AFS, and the interest rate will be driven by the credit risk profile at the time they apply. If someone's credit risk has deteriorated, they'll get a higher rate. If it's improved, it will probably stay in that same range. I know the perception is that GMF, everyone got very sharp interest rates, and there is a portion of that book that's there. There's also quite a few customers in that book are paying in that 6%-9%, 10% range as well. Their credit profile will determine their interest rate that the group can offer at the end.
Great. Thanks, Scott. That concludes the Q&A. I might hand back to you for closing remarks.
Thanks, Simon. Thank you for organizing today, and thank you for investors for attending the briefing today. We've got a lot of good news with the foundations of the business being set with funding, more distribution being added with the acquisition of AFS. Do think of that business and look at Go Car Finance to see what we can do over the next 24 months. I look forward to talking to investors on the one-on-one or at the full year results in six months' time. Thanks for joining the call today.