Hi, good morning, and thank you all for joining us to discuss our 2025 full year results. With me on the call this morning is Carolyn Pedic, our Chief Financial Officer, and Jen Gray, our CEO of Convenience and Mobility. Carolyn and I will share the group results, and Jennifer will provide more commentary on our convenience retail business. After a challenging first half, it's been encouraging to see the improvements in all parts of our business over the last rest of the year. From an operational standpoint, our performance has been solid. Our focus on improving safety, culture, with retail, and maintaining strong discipline across the rest of our business, has driven a year-on-year improvement in personal safety performance. This is a particularly good result given the level of construction and maintenance activity within our refining operations.
Group sales were in line with last year, with commercial delivering another record year underpinned by growth in aviation, but with all segments performing well. Retail fuel sales were relatively strong after taking account of the impact of store closures to support conversion. While convenience sales continued to be impacted by illicit tobacco, gross margins increased slightly to 39% during the year. Refining margins rebounded during the final quarter, lifting our GRM to $9.50 U.S. per barrel for the year, supported by the startup of ultra-low sulfur gasoline production from November. Second half, EBITDA was $396 million, up 33% on the same period last year, contributing to group EBITDA of $701 million for the full year.
We remain very focused on capital discipline, with CapEx in line with guidance and actions underway to reduce gearing over the next 2 years now that the significant investment program at Geelong is completed. Overall, a strong finish to the year, with the company providing a final dividend of AUD 0.0394 per share, representing 60% of C&I and C&M NPAT. I turn to slide 5. Let me touch on some of the more significant achievements we delivered during 2025. During the first half of the year, we stood up an ERP with supporting systems and processes to operate our retail businesses independently from Coles and replace legacy point-of-sale systems in the Reddy Express business.
This was a major undertaking, which has driven changes to the way we do things in just about every part of our business, but critical to allowing us to begin taking further steps to unify our OTR and Express businesses. This level of change has been significant, but this is now behind us, and we are increasingly focused on utilizing new systems to improve execution of our retail offers and drive synergies. During the year, we opened 35 new OTR stores through a mix of new stores and conversions, predominantly in New South Wales and mostly over the second half of the year. This has also been a significant undertaking, and there have been some challenges driven by the pace of rollout and the capability needed to support the new offer.
That said, we've learned a great deal from this early work and have, will embed these into the forward program to improve execution and outcomes. The change in leadership during the second half of the year has been seamless, with Jen bringing a strong focus on execution, which is already translating into improving outcomes. Jen will continue to support Teresa Rendo when she joins us in a few months, and together, they will drive momentum in the year ahead. You'll hear more from Jen shortly about our retail program. In our Commercial business, we continue to drive a strong focus on organic growth and extending our capability into new markets. We now have a presence at 98 airfields across the country and marine barge operations in the three key markets of Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane. Commercial delivered another strong performance in both sales and earnings in 2025.
As I mentioned earlier, we've now successfully completed a multi-year investment program at Geelong, bookended in 2025 with the 5-yearly major turnaround maintenance program and the commissioning of the Ultra-Low Sulfur Gasoline project ahead of the fuel specification changes in December. This was completed on schedule and largely within budget, demonstrating the capability of the organization to undertake major projects. As we look to the year ahead on slide 6, there are 4 overarching priorities which will be critical to driving growth into the future and are very much within our control. With major maintenance and upgrades behind us, our refinery is in a tremendous position to run hard, maximize cash for the next 4 years through to the next major maintenance cycle in 2030.
Low refining margins continue to weigh on refining at the current time, but we remain positive about the environment ahead and encouraged by the negotiations with government to review the FSSP. As mentioned earlier, we are well placed to move forward with stronger momentum in delivering on our retail strategy. The implementation of independent convenience supply chains this year will improve supply chain efficiency, better leverage supplier relationships, and bring to an end the wholesale supply agreement with Coles. We will skew our conversion program to the second half of this year to give us some time for capability to be implemented and other improvements made, but continue to see the extension of OTR offer as a critical pot component of our long-term growth. Our commercial business continues to extend its track record of delivery consistent with reliable quality earnings.
We extended our business into new markets last year and will continue to pursue organic investments to defend our business and build platforms for long-term growth. With the period of significant multi-year investment behind us, we are committed to reducing CapEx in the years ahead and improving the strength of our balance sheet without compromising our strategic growth plans. Carolyn will speak more about this later in the presentation. We'll now turn and discuss each of the businesses in more detail. I'll cover our energy businesses, and Jen will talk to the retail business, with Carolyn bringing it all together with group results and capital management.
Our energy businesses, as set out on Slide 8 and 9, really do turn on our refining position at Geelong, our nationwide network of terminals and supply chain infrastructure, and our extensive downstream supply chains to support our commercial customers in every part of the country. We have an unrivaled and privileged position, which we have continued to build and protect. As mentioned before, last year, we entered the marine market in Brisbane, extending our barge operations to all major eastern seaboard ports in Australia, extended our aviation network, which is now approaching 100 airfields, and established the first bulk lubricants and grease import facility in the Pilbara. These are just great examples of how we continue to strengthen and grow our successful commercial businesses.
Longer term, we see considerable opportunity to leverage our refining position at Geelong and deep customer relationships to produce and distribute lower carbon fuels. We have contributed to many successful trials over the last year and are developing capability to extend production as government policy and commercialization of these new energies evolve. Turning to slide 10, you can see that commercial delivered another record year, with sales lifting to 11.8 billion liters, driven by continued growth in aviation, also supported by strong performances in all of the other business units. Earnings were largely in line with the last year, with sales growth offset by lower overall margin mix, increased supply costs from new market entries, and general cost inflation.
Refining, as set out in slide 11, had a mixed year, with significant site-wide power outages, outage in January and the impacts from planned maintenance in the third quarter impacting production, and with weak refining margins rebounding in the fourth quarter. I'm proud of the way we executed on the low sulfur gasoline project, which was completed and commissioned in October, with production starting in November. This was a very significant project for the site, and with this behind us, we get into 2026 unconstrained by project activity. Let me now hand over to Jen to talk in more detail about our convenience businesses.
Thanks, Scott. I'll start on slide 13 and 14 with a reminder of our retail strategy. The fuel and convenience sector has significant growth potential, achieved by extending into a broader range of convenience categories, especially food and beverages aimed at people on the move. International formats set out this opportunity, some Australian players have made good progress. The OTR offer is widely regarded as the best convenience product in Australia. It's a proven offer that we intend to extend into the Reddy Express network, which suffers from underinvestment and is operating well below its potential. This is a significant opportunity we see. We are now well placed to pursue this strategy with more momentum. Slides 14 and 15 set out our journey and the progress we've made.
Last year, we completed the rebranding of our network to our standard brands, stood up systems and processes to end our transitional arrangements with Coles Group, and began to run our business in an integrated fashion. We fully acquired the Liberty Oil Convenience business, opened 35 new OTR stores, and are in the process of standing up independent supply chains to support our various brands and offers. It was a tremendously busy year, and I'm proud of what the team's achieved. Since stepping into the CEO role, I've focused the team on the priorities ahead, strengthening our retail execution and lifting the capability of the organization. Teresa Rendo will join us in the next few months, and I'll continue to support her with our strategic agenda to build on the momentum we've established. Turning to our trading performance on slide 16.
Trading conditions improved significantly through the year, with lower oil prices supporting fuel sales and strengthened fuel margins. Tobacco sales have stabilized, and we're beginning to see signs of growth in the rest of our convenience business, which is encouraging. With the impact of tobacco behind us and our organization now ready to run, I'm confident about the year ahead and look forward to driving top-line growth and continuing the extension of the OTR offer through the Express network. Slide 17 sets out our financial performance through FY 2025. The first part of the bridge sets out the uplifts we have secured through the acquisition of Liberty Convenience, the transition of OTR's fuel supply to Viva Energy, improved cost reductions from exiting transitional service arrangements with Coles, and efficiencies from consolidating retail operations.
We have more opportunity to reduce costs and improve margins this year as we transition off the Coles product supply agreement and continue to improve in-store execution. The second part of the bridge sets out the underlying trading performance of the business. Illicit tobacco and general trading conditions were particularly challenging during the first half of the year. Conditions have since improved, with the stabilization of tobacco sales, strengthening of fuel margins, and growth in non-tobacco sales and margins. EBITDA in the second half of 2025 was AUD 123 million, compared with AUD 74 million in the first half, and we are seeing this underlying strength continue into 2026 with typical seasonal variation. We delivered 35 new OTR stores last year, with 25 converted from Reddy Express. These conversions were predominantly delivered during the latter part of the year, with early signs generally positive.
January ex tobacco sales are up 10% on the same period last year. Our top 10 stores are up more than 30%. Fuel sales are also lifting significantly. Much of this is not related to pricing, rather an uplift in performance from forecourt works completed and an improved customer offer. As we flagged after our first half results, there are some significant impediments that are holding back performance. These include poor supply chains outside of South Australia, removal of machine coffee, and the lack of Flybuys. The cumulative effect is significant enough that we have paused conversions so that we can overcome these issues, with conversions continuing in earnest in the second half of the year. The pace of the rollout is something we'll continue to assess as we build plans for 2027.
Looking ahead, there are four key drivers of growth that the team focused on. Improved retail execution is already driving results, and I will continue to ensure this is our primary focus, so the base business performs well and better supports the extension of the OTR offer. We will finish the year with an independent supply chain that supports both OTR and express offers and allows us to exit the product supply agreement with Coles. This is an incredibly important project which will drive considerable synergies in 2027 and largely brings our integration activity to a close. From a customer perspective, the alignment of the loyalty and digital offers will drive considerable value, improve marketing spend and efficiency, and improve conversion uplift.
As mentioned earlier, we will open another 40-60 OTR stores this year, and I'm excited about finishing the year with real momentum in this program. Let me hand over to Carolyn to discuss our financial performance.
Thank you, Jen. Turning to slide 21, group EBITDA on a replacement cost basis was just over AUD 701 million, down 6% year-on-year. By 2025, reflected the peak year of retail integration and capital intensity across the group. Performance improved meaningfully in the second half, reflecting stabilization in retail execution and operational momentum as major system transitions were completed, as Jen mentioned. Underlying Net Profit After Tax on a replacement cost basis was AUD 184 million, reflecting the EBITDA outcome, as well as high depreciation and finance costs following the recent acquisition of Liberty Oil Convenience and a full year of OTR following its acquisition at the end of Q1 2024, and higher average debt levels during the year. 2025 significant items totaled AUD 664 million pre-tax, the large majority of which was non-cash.
The largest item was a non-cash impairment of AUD 556 million relating to retail sites. This reflects site-level assessments from an accounting standards perspective. There is no impairment at the Convenience & Mobility business level. It primarily relates to a reduction of the lease right-of-use assets for certain sites during a period of softer trading conditions. It was calculated by applying earnings in line with FY 2025 performance, which we regard as a low point in retail's earnings cycle, and then applying some service of growth rates before discounting the resulting cash flows. Accounting standards require that the cash portion does not incorporate future earnings improvements, initiatives, or management actions that Jen touched on. As a result, this impairment should not be interpreted as a reassessment of the long-term value or strategic rationale of the retail business.
We also incurred $97.5 million of transition, integration, and restructuring costs. Around $67 million relates to the implementation of replacement IT systems and platforms required to support an integrated operating model, with the balance reflecting rationalization of corporate functions following our model work positions. These costs represent the final stages of a multi-year integration program and are expected to reduce through the year. The last item to call out on this slide is $29 million of OTR prior period impacts. Following the integration of OTR finance into Viva's control environment, we identified that certain inventory costs had historically been capitalized when they should have instead been expensed. These items were required to be expensed in the FY 2025 statutory financial statements.
As these costs related to prior reporting periods, they have been treated as significant items and are excluded from the FY 2025 underlying earnings. Of the AUD 29 million, AUD 18 million relates to pre-completion periods. We acknowledge that there was frustration that we did not provide FY 2025 EBITDA guidance in the Q4 trading update. Given the ongoing assessment of these items in conjunction with our auditor, we did not believe it was appropriate to provide guidance until the FY 2025 numbers were finalized. Turning to slide 22, operating free cash flow of AUD 542 million included AUD 105 million of one-off costs, which largely corresponds to the transition, integration, and restructuring activity I've mentioned.
You can see the bridge from EBITDA to net free cash flow, the impact of capital expenditure on multi-year projects, the acquisition of Liberty Convenience under the investments category, as well as the integration costs we talked about. When we adjust for these items, underlying free cash flow is positive. Given we report on a pre-AASB 16 basis, EBITDA remains a good proxy for underlying operating cash flow generation. On slide 23, I'll talk to CapEx. 2025 was a peak CapEx period, as we've discussed before, as we completed the planned major turnaround at the Geelong refinery and commissioned the Ultra-Low Sulfur Gasoline plant. Looking forward, we expect CapEx to moderate meaningfully. In 2026, we expect total CapEx to be AUD 350 million-AUD 400 million, depending on the pace of conversions, as Jen outlined earlier.
This will support improving net cash flow and strengthening our balance sheet. As you can see on slide 24, net debt closed the year at AUD 2.1 billion, gearing in respect of total net debt to EBITDA was 3x , and we continue to target gearing towards 2x by the end of FY 2027. I'll provide more color on this next. Meanwhile, term debt to EBITDA gearing reduced to 1.4x , with us within our target range of 1-1.5x , liquidity remains strong at approximately AUD 0.9 billion. Our Slide 25 sets out our capital management framework and our priorities. We are focused on maintaining safe and reliable operations, a strong balance sheet, and returning dividends to shareholders in line with our policy.
Additional cash flow can be directed to growth projects and additional returns to investors after satisfying these key pillars. Our key priorities ahead are outlined on the slide and include lower CapEx in FY 2025 by approximately AUD 100 million-AUD 150 million, following the successful delivery of key projects at the Geelong Refinery. Improving net working capital, with a particular focus on inventory as we stand up our new convenience supply chain. Improving earnings by reducing earnings volatility from the Geelong Refinery, following ongoing renegotiation of the FSSP phase one, and improving Convenience & Mobility earnings through the various initiatives outlined earlier. We've flagged that we're reviewing opportunities to divest surplus land.
These initiatives will set us up for a strong balance sheet, with management continuing to target gearing towards 2x , as I mentioned earlier before, by the end of 2027. Moving to Slide 26, the board has determined a final fully franked dividend of AUD 0.0394 per share, and this represents a payout ratio of 60% in NPAT (RC) from the Convenience & Mobility and Commercial & Industrial segments in the second half. Consistent with our dividend policy, the E&I segment is assessed on a full year basis, with E&I recording a net loss of AUD 14.4 million at the NPAT level in FY 2025. Dividends for the full year represent 60% through net profit at the midpoint of our policy range between 50% and 70%.
Final dividend will be paid on the 31st of March 2026, to shareholders on the register on the 13th of March 2026. Our dividend reinvestment plan remains active, with 44% participation in the first half 2025 dividend. Eligible shareholders can reinvest their dividends directly into shares at a 1.5% discount. The dividend reinvestment plan continues not to be underwritten. I'll hand back to Scott to provide an update on the outlook.
Thanks, Carolyn. As I mentioned at the beginning of the presentation, we finished 2025 with strong momentum in our retail business, the successful completion of our refining investment program, another solid and respectable result from our commercial business. I expect 2026 to build on this platform, further growing our retail business and improving cash generation from our refining business in particular. The outcome of the FSSP review will clearly be very important in this regard. Looking to the longer term, let me conclude on slide 29. We have an outstanding business, which has a strong infrastructure backed position and clear strategies to drive long-term growth and shareholder value. We are already the leading supplier of energy and specialties in our markets and are now well on the way to building the leading convenience business in Australia.
With a lower capital cycle ahead, coupled with earnings growth from our strategic agenda, we are also well placed to strengthen our balance sheet. This will clearly be a clear priority for the year ahead. On that note, let me hand over to you now for your questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question via the phones, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Today's first question comes from Michael Simotas with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Morning, everyone. Well done on the cash position. First question from me on the outlook commentary. Just trying to understand a little bit better the messaging around convenience retail into FY 2026 and then 2027. There's a comment, Scott, in your shareholder letter, which suggests that FY 2026 growth for convenience retail will only be modest. Should we think about that as relative to the 2025 year, or does that comment relate to an annualized second half of 2025 base, given the first half was so low?
Yeah. Thank, thanks for the question, Michael. We, you'll notice in the bridge for, for retail that we have specifically focused on the second half performance relative to second half 2024. A few reasons for that, Michael. One is, you know, first half was really an outlier for us. It was a particularly challenging market and, you know, obviously a period of intense transition for us as well. 2020 second half, by comparison, is a much cleaner half. It has, obviously a full period in both 2025 and 2024 of OTR performance, and a full half for Liberty Convenience as well, in terms of as a full acquisition. It's a more constructive trading period, which reflects how the market is, is, you know, trading more recently.
Tobacco stabilized, so for many reasons, it's, I guess, a cleaner period to use as a baseline, heading into 2026. That said, it's obviously a more, a seasonally better half than the first half, typically, and the retail fuel margins through the half are elevated compared to previous years. You probably need to make some adjustments to that when you think about 2026. But certainly I am thinking about the second half as being a more representative reflection of the underlying performance of the retail business now.
Okay. Yeah, that, that's, that's clear. The second question I've got is on shop margin, and then I just have a quick clarification as well. If we sort of do some rough maths on what your shop margin would have done if not for the, the tobacco mix shift. It looks like you've given up maybe 200 or 250 basis points of gross margin on the shop in the 2025 year. Now, 2025 year was a transition, and it was a tough year for lots of reasons, but that equates to, you know, AUD 25 million or AUD 30 million of gross profit and EBITDA. Can we get that back?
Yeah, great question. I might give Jen the opportunity to talk to it, but what I would say, but before I hand over to her, is that, I think we have left money on the table in terms of shop margin. We have, you know, we have certainly in the first half of the year, it's, we, we certainly suffered from not having good visibility or the right level of visibility across our convenience business as we stood up ERP systems, and moved off legacy. I think that hindered our responsiveness to what was, you know, obviously a high inflation period as well, and then partly certainly managing store margins accordingly. That improved, has improved a lot since then. Obviously, stabilizing systems now, having that largely, largely behind us.
The, the impact on tobacco and the, the knock-on impact to, to non-tobacco categories, just from having less visitation, is also something that we have, you know, needed to manage and probably not managing as well as we, we should do, but with from a visibility perspective. Now, I think we're really starting to get on top of that as well. Finally, I think, just generally, wastage and, and shrinkage has, has, you know, has always been a component of convenience stores. It's been elevated over the last year. We've got work to do to get on top of that and get that back down. I think they're all. We can definitely do better than what we delivered in 2025.
We have been getting better through the second half of the year, I think that will carry through into 2026 as well. Michael, I'd say it's an opportunity for uplift just by executing better essentially, which is one of the key priorities that Jen's been bringing to the business. You've got some reflections?
Yeah, I think the other opportunity for us, as we progress through 2026, is the transition of our supply chain, which will move our product supply and the Reddy Express network away from the transition arrangement with Coles, and we will have those relationships directly with our supplier base. That allows us to actually bring our OTR purchasing and our Reddy Express purchasing together and leverage that with suppliers for the first time. It also means the flexibility of bringing new products to market and being able to innovate in that space is materially changed from where we are today. I think that will also help improve our, our store margin and our opportunity to grow top-line sales.
Thanks. Then just a quick clarification. I just wanna make sure I'm interpreting the significant item around the capitalized inventory correctly. If I use the 2025 year as a guide, does it effectively mean that roughly AUD 100 million earnings base when OTR was acquired was overstated by about 10%?
Yeah. Thanks, thanks, Michael, for that question. You shouldn't just use the, the run rate that we've got in 2025. The, the prior completion period was like a multiple period impact. Yeah, that, that's, that's just not the right way to look at it.
Okay. Can you, can you give us a guide on what the underlying earnings were when you bought the business?
The 2026, Michael, or 2025? Sorry, 2025 or 2024.
I'm more sort of thinking about that roughly AUD 100 million of EBITDA the business was doing when it was purchased, just so we can sort of think about that as a, as a baseline that we can get back to and then grow on top of that.
Yeah. Yeah, the pre-completion number that called out in the deck is about AUD 80 million, Michael, which goes back a couple of years.
Okay. Yeah. All right. Thank you.
That would be how, how to think about that, so.
Yeah, that's right. It's a multi-year impact, you shouldn't just think about it as one, one year or two years.
I think, I think also, I think probably the way to think about it, Michael, too, is because it wasn't, it wasn't, it wasn't recognized and it was therefore wasn't recognized in the categories, in the stores in which it was impacting results. I think if you replayed it and with visibility, we would have. Well, the business would have responded differently to that situation, and you probably would be managing margins a bit differently as a result, right? I think it's, and, and having done the reconciliations now and understood the impact of, of the way this was treated, you know, we will certainly respond differently in store in terms of how we price for those particular categories to, to recognize that cost that we previously weren't recognizing. Does that make sense?
No, it does. You weren't quite earning the margin you thought you were earning, I guess.
Yeah, no, completely. You kind of get, yeah, obviously, isn't that com- you, you can't get comfortable with that when in reality, we, for those stores and categories that were affected, we shouldn't have been, right? So.
Yep. Okay. Thank you.
It'll drive a different management outcome going forward for those stores and categories.
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Dale Koenders at Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Morning, Scott and team. I just kind of wanted to dig more into this sort of outlook for retail going forward. In the waterfall chart for your fuel growth in second half 2025 versus second half 2024, there's quite a large step up in fuel margin, and you said there's seasonal benefit. Have you done anything to change your pricing strategy? Like, will any of that fuel benefit be sort of kept and sustained going forward?
Yeah. Jen, do you want to-
Sure. I, I think, yes, we have, and we've seen it continue into the beginning of this year as well. The market has certainly supported that increased fuel margin as well. To a large degree, our fuel pricing strategy is in line with the market and ensuring that we main- remain competitive with, with, with the market, as part of our, you know, core offer to customers. The market supported it. Where the market continues to support it, obviously, we will continue to optimize that where we can.
I think, just to add, Dale Koenders, I think, you know, our management of fuel generally is in really good shape. I think we have continued to. The team there has done a great job. We're, as always, trying to be quite dynamic in how we price fuel and alongside the broader offer that we have in store. Every store and every market is different, and I feel we're managing that extremely well. Then from a market perspective, it was quite encouraging, so quarter four, obviously, it was, you know, with the lift and strengthening of margins. Obviously that was supported a bit by cost of product decreases through the period as well.
I think generally it's been, you know, 18 months, 2 years now, of significant cost pressure in this retail, in the convenience sector, but driven by obviously declines in tobacco and high inflation, particularly impacting wages as well. That, these are costs that impact everybody. I think, you know, at some point you, you would've expected those cost pressures to, to lift margins and particularly in fuel, and I think we're starting to see that follow through in terms of market pricing generally as well. Yes, it's, it was an exceptional period. I think it's, but it's carried through into the, into this year, and I think because of those cost pressures, I would expect, you know, some upward pressure on margins to continue through the year, Dale.
Are there any other one-offs worth calling out, Scott, when we think about second half minus a bit of seasonality times two for, for an outlook for 2026? Are there any cost duplication on supply chains or any benefits from the OTR conversions that you think we should be banking in, or it's be conservative and wait for our performance on that?
I think we've still got work to do on improving, if, you know, improving cost, the cost base of the business, not just retail, but the whole business, particularly just given cost, you know, inflation cost pressures generally. That hasn't finished. I think we've done a lot. You can see that in the, in the bridge around above store costs performance. Some of that's within retail, some of that's from contribution from corporate overheads as well. But there's more, there is more to be done, Dale, for sure. I think, you know, just remind, I mean, this year there's a big transition activity happening this year with the, the transition of supply chain. We want to make sure we support that change and we do that well, and seamlessly from a customer perspective.
That probably is, you know, the overriding priority in the year ahead. With that behind us, I think that in itself will allow us to move with even further consolidation of retail activity across the businesses, continue to try and do more, do things more effectively, obviously get benefits out of the supply chain itself. That's more, that's probably gonna be, you know, that leverage that more fully towards once that project is completed, so back in the next year into 2027.
Okay. Just final question, just on refining margins. Can you provide any comments on sort of Ultra-Low Sulfur Gasoline upgrades, any benefits you're seeing and your competitor or your peers reported margins of $8 a barrel, low 8s for January? Is that consistent with what you're seeing, or is Ultra-Low Sulfur giving you a benefit?
It's, I think we're, we're still, we're still learning to run the machine. The equipment's still brand new. I think we're, we're not getting the full benefit out of it yet. It, obviously, it's been, we've been operating it since November, and we're, we're certainly getting more familiar with it and, and refining how we operate that within the configuration of the whole, the whole refinery. I, I wouldn't say that we're seeing significant benefit from it, benefit from it yet, but the potential is still there, and certainly the market is pricing in low sulfur gasoline at, you know, anywhere from $1-$1.50 U.S. a barrel. That's, that's the opportunity.
You know, we've, we've got a, and that, that's, that we have and I, you know, we will realize that in time, though, as we go forward. I think for January, yeah, it's been a challenging start to the year from a refining margin perspective. We, we haven't called out January's numbers, not just simply because, you know, we, we don't want to fall into the trap of doing monthly refinery margin reporting because things can move around a lot over a quarter. We'll certainly report back on the quarter, but, you know, acknowledge it's been a difficult start to the year. Refining margins are below breakeven for January. Encourage improving it a bit into February. I do think that will continue through the course of the year.
I think January has been heavily impacted by a period of very strong production globally in quarter four, with obviously very high attractive refining margins and good availability across the world. That's the market sort of absorbing all of that. I think in the, the outlook ahead, I think we, you know, we still see that it should be a reasonably constructive environment, albeit impacted a lot by what's happening geopolitically. I think ultimately, you know, real focus for us is completing the review with government on the FSSP. It's really critical that that gets updated to reflect the current cost of doing business and provide the, the support that's necessary to underpin refining operations. That's near-term focus for us, and that's probably more material right now for the, you know, current refining market and the current refining margin environment.
Okay. That's great. Thanks, Scott.
Bye.
Thank you. Our next question today comes from David Errington at Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Morning, Scott. Scott, my questions is, I suppose it's, it's a fair bit of topic today, the, the transition, if you like, of supply chain and systems. I put my hand up, I underestimated how difficult this was going to be, and I think probably you guys have to put your hands up, too, and say that you probably underestimated how difficult it would be. Where my question is, is, is slide 19 and listening to your answers, I'd like to think that we're past the worst, but I'm not sure we can say that with your transitions, with supply chain, with your point of sale, with, with your ERP. Can you go into a little bit more detail as to what you need to be able to do this year?
Is it hopefully then we've got clean air, and can you bring to life a little bit? Because, you know, supply chain transition and managing the transition and managing the impact for the customer, I mean, they roll off the tongue really nicely, but, you know, so all of us underestimate what actual work needs to go in before you can actually get, get a shot at this. Can you go into a bit of detail on slide 19, please, as just what you need to be able to do before we can get to the point where we can start factoring in the upside from this wonderful opportunity that you've got? Because it looks to me, this transition is just crippling you in terms of being able to get your operations right, so as you can actually get this offer in place.
Yeah. I mean, I'll talk, talk about the ERP transition. I'll let Jen talk about the supply chain, because that's obviously front and center for her at the moment. Certainly, look, I mean, standing up an ERP, even one that was ultimately, you know, modeled off the OTR ERP that was in place, was still a significant undertaking to get it done in the period of time that we had to do it, which was obviously a hard stop with the transitional services arrangements that we had with Coles expiring. That certainly, I mean, I think the team did an amazing job pulling that together in such a quick, quick time.
Other, other companies I won't name are pro- are, are still, our retail companies are still trying to disconnect themselves from previous, previous owners with these sorts of systems. We've, we've on that front, I think we did a great job. Then obviously with time pressure and, you know, it probably, it did impact an, we had some teething issues with it. I think the, the probably the biggest one was, was just the visibility of management information necessary to run the business through that time. That was probably, you know, I think in on reflection and looking back on it, was unexpected and, and more impactful than we probably anticipated. We've recovered, you know, obviously, we've recovered from that. The systems are now all in place. I would acknowledge we're still running two versions of it.
We've got an ERP for OTR and an ERP for what is Reddy Express, and we've still got work to do to bring those together into one instance, but that's now at our leisure. It's not schedule-driven. We can just do that methodically and work it through. Systems are stabilized. We're starting with getting information that we need to run the business well. That's just starting to reflect in the results that we're delivering. And, and the business, that's all stabilized. I think, David, you can rest assured that that's behind us, and now the focus is now on the next step, which is the, obviously, the standing up of supply chains and moving off the Coles product supply arrangements, towards the end of this year. That's it. That's one we have to get right. We have...
That has been pushed back by six months to give us the time. I think we, when we sat down and reassessed, we were up to at the middle of the second half. That was one area that we really felt we needed to take more time. We talked with Coles, and we've agreed an extension for six months to give us that time. That should give us some comfort that we're, we're not putting ourselves under the pressure, which where things can go wrong. There's still a lot to do, and I might just hand over Jen to talk a bit more about that.
Yeah. maybe I'll give you a little bit more color in what our supply chain transformation looks like, and, and quite a large part of it's already been done. As part of coming off the Coles PSA arrangements, we've already rolled out to the entire Reddy network, a new order fulfillment module, Blue Yonder, so that will determine how we order all of our stock. Range alignment has happened across both the brands, so we now understand what offer we'll have in common across both OTR and our Reddy network. The team are in the process of closing out harmonization of supply chains, so being able to interact with our suppliers, as a single entity, rather, rather than as two separate entities. That work's been largely completed.
What's happening now is the standing up of 4 distribution centers, all being run by third parties. We have 1 in Victoria, which will come up during May, followed by 1 in Queensland, then 1 in New South Wales, and then 1 in WA. They're run by third-party providers, and those third-party providers will also provide the logistics to site. I think it's worth noting that we already run this model in South Australia, so we have experience in running this type of model, and we understand the sorts of returns we can achieve, but we don't un-underestimate the difficulty of this transition at a store level, which, to Scott's point, is why we have really taken the time to make sure we deliver this with excellence.
Mm.
Right. It, it, it is, it is challenging, but we believe we can do it.
It seems then inherently sensible to push back the rollouts to the second half. When I look at slide 18, Jen, the performance of the store uplift is fantastic. I mean, you look at your top 10 stores, you get a 32% uplift in ex tobacco sales. You get a 60% uplift in petrol. I mean, that's an amazing. It shows that the concept works.
Yeah.
It just means that you just have to. It shows. The excitement is there, but you've just got to get your act together on the back end. Is that a fair, fair prognosis? Hopefully, not putting words into your mouth, if you work really hard through 2026, 2027 should be fantastically, you know, fantastically optimistic for the company.
I-
Is that a good way of looking at it, Scott? Should we get that far ahead of ourselves? That's what it sounds like to me. When I look at those charts, I mean, 32%...
Yeah.
uplift for your top 10 stores and 59% uplift in volume, that's phenomenally bullish.
Yeah, no, no, completely. I mean, and the fuel uplift, I mean, okay, you know, this is January versus January, so that was the cleanest month period we had to compare because we did a lot of conversions late last year. January is quite a month for fuel rise, and so, you know, we weren't pushing pricing particularly to work particularly hard in these conversion sites. It's a genuine uplift in performance, driven, you know, a lot through the upgrades to the store. That is super encouraging.
You know, the reality is, when you, you know, when you get to reflect on customer feedback and the impact, like, I mean, customers are turning up and, you know, we're not offering them Flybuys because we hadn't had their commercial arrangements in place with Flybuys to offer that. That, that's been taken off them, and that's a big component of what the, the old Express business. We've taken away machine coffee and given them barista coffee, which is, you know, an important part of the offer, but it's a big change for customers to go through, and it doesn't suit everybody, so we have to recognize that. We've had the store shut for 8 weeks, and fuel comes back quite quickly, but shop is always a bit harder to... 'cause people change their patterns, so we've had to drag that back.
If we, you know, if we can improve all those execution things, issues, imagine how much better it will do when we get to the next wave of conversions, right? That is a bit why we're just taking a, a pause now to get those things right, get, and particularly Flybuys. I mean, that's just for the sake of a few months to get that implemented so that when customers do turn up after a conversion, that bit hasn't changed. It's worth taking the pause to get that right and, and resetting and getting after it. Yeah, 40-60 conversions might sound low relative to what we've been saying, but it's, it's kind of backended to the back end, starting of the end of quarter two through the rest of the year.
It's it's probably gonna get done over about six months. It's still a large conversion and, yeah, program over that period. It includes new store openings as well. There's still a lot of, a lot of, you know, activity happening to take OTR across the rest of the country this year. Even, even with what looks like at the headline, a lower level of conversion, it's actually still quite a lot, given, given the way we're facing it.
I would, I would just add that supply chain is critical to getting these stores up and running.
Yeah.
Our stores in New South Wales are being supplied out of South Australia at the moment. Once we have that DC stood up in, in New South Wales, the efficiencies we remove from our offer are, you know, extraordinarily material.
Yeah, you have no idea how frustrating it is to go to a, go to a new store that we've opened and see stockouts on stores just simply because that, that supply chain just doesn't work well, right?
Yeah.
It's too, it's too far.
It drives higher wastage.
Yeah.
Obviously, if you're moving stuff from South Australia, you lose a few days of life while you do that. It will make a material difference to the performance of those stores.
For some reason, people in New South Wales-
2027 would be great.
For some reason, David, people in New South Wales don't like buying stuff that's made in South Australia. Go figure that, so.
Quite right, too, Scott. Quite right. I'm looking forward to 2027. It should be a terrific year, bring it on.
Indeed.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Bryan Raymond at J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
... morning. I just to follow on from David's question actually around some of those uplifts you're seeing, and not to be glass half empty here, but I'm just trying to look at the sort of the top 20, the total of the 25 versus the top 10. Just trying to understand the other 15 that make up that 25. You know, if you take a simple average, it implies ex tobacco sales are down mid-single digit, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me on conversion, and then fuel volumes up about mid-single digits.
I just wanted to understand if, if you've found quite different experiences in the top 10 versus the rest, if there's some learnings from the rest that you're applying going forward as well, or if my math is not, not quite right because of some apples and oranges comparisons I might be making with the limited data we have.
No, it's a good point. Please.
I think the first thing I'd say is a lot of those sites were converted very late in 2025, so they're, you know, we are-- we opened, I think, 18 sites across December. I might be slightly overstating, but it was a material number. We wouldn't consider a lot of those sites have reached maturity yet, so the average will be being brought down by the, you know, as those sites come, come back. We did notice, just in regards to tobacco, it is-- that is one of the most heavily impacted categories when you close a store for conversion. That's the hardest one to kind of get the growth back, as customers create new habits or unfortunately find, sources of illicit tobacco as well, we suspect.
One of the things we're looking at to kind of arrest that going forward is, is ways in which we can trade the stores through conversion. By putting a drop-down shop on forecourts while we're doing those upgrades, and we think that will also have a material impact and help keep us in touch with our customers during the conversion process and keep their habits at our stores. I think across any network, you're gonna get variability of an offer, and one of the things we're very focused on looking at the 2027 program is site selection. Not all stores have responded in the same way, and we're getting better at picking the sites where the OTR offer will hit the ground running.
Thinking more about how the Reddy Express store traded prior to conversion and making sure that our offer is respectful of the customer base we've got and introduces more with OTR as well. There's, there, there are a lot of learnings, and we're confident that if we take this period to reflect, get the rest of the offers in place, nail site selection, that we will see that average lift across stores.
Okay. Just on, I guess, you know, we're looking at a 6-week period here as well, which can be prone to weather and other and fuel prices and other things that could be driving this. If we had sort of the, the rest of the fleet on that table, would you see anything unusual there? Like, i.e., is there any controls put on this sample that, you know, to, to adjust for what might be impacting sort of broader market conditions, around ex tobacco sales or, or fuel volumes?
No. No, this is straight performance, so we know through the back quarter of last year, we had worse weather. It's a terrible excuse, but weather really does impact beverage sales and ice sales and ice cream sales. We had significantly poorer weather than the year prior. We do know that convenience was impacted versus the year prior across our entire network. We haven't put any of those controls across it. It's a straight comparison to, to the year prior for that site. You will have some variation as we would see across the network as a whole.
Okay. Then just on tobacco, it's encouraging to see that stabilization. I just wonder if that's consistent across states or if you're seeing, you know, uplifts in tobacco in states where there's enforcement and still meaningful declines in those that haven't progressed as much around enforcement. Is it, or is it pretty much across the board and it's other factors?
No, it's, it's extraordinarily, dependent on enforcement. Queensland's a great example at the moment. They've run through a period of enforcement, just prior to Christmas, and we saw sales bounce back where enforcement has taken place around sites by more than 100% almost immediately. Typically, what we're seeing is that decline over a 12-16 week period, unless more enforcement takes place. Where enforcement happens, the result is immediate and it's material. You know, the variation in approach taken across states has a meaningful impact on, on our tobacco sales.
Okay. Great. Final one is just a clarification just around the lease asset impairment, that you put through, that you discussed earlier. Just wondering if there's any impact we should be now thinking about on gearing, lease D&A, lease interest, those sorts of measures going forward out of that?
Yeah. Not, not really much of an impact to think about in terms of underlying earnings, because predominantly the impairment was of the right-of-use lease asset, and in our underlying, we don't include the, I guess, the depreciation of that right-of-use asset. There's a relatively small impairment of property plant equipment, which should give a small benefit for depreciation going forward. Otherwise, no, no impact.
Okay, great. Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Tom Allen at UBS. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, Scott, Carolyn, Jen, the broader team. Just slowing the plan rate of OTR conversions for 2026, it feels like a necessary step just to focus on execution. Scott, you commented that these conversions are backended to the end of the second quarter. As you lean into the conversion program, how should we think about these conversion targets annually over the next couple of years as your execution of know-how matures?
Yeah, I think, Tom, we want to come back on that in the second half, once we've had a bit more time to just work through the performance of the current set and the program this year and give Teresa a chance to get on board as well. So that's probably in terms of what we look to do for 2027, we're just gonna come back on that a bit later, just focus on what's ahead. As I said before, I mean, the, the pace is actually, if you look at it over the period that we're gonna be converting, is still quite high, right? Because it's a compressed period this year. Obviously really keen to see improve our assumptions around the better uplifts that we'll get with some of the basics better in place.
I think, look, yeah, I didn't touch on it before, but look, just the other thing that's very much on our mind is we've got, you know, it's been a large, significant period of change for the retail organization. We've got, gotta get the supply chain landed well and a few other things we need to land this year. We just need to give the team some space to just get the priorities right. A conversion program and new store openings, they're quite intensive pieces of work, right? They take a lot of effort, so to, to get right.
We're just trying to pace ourselves a little bit more carefully this year and consolidate the learnings and then really regroup and, and obviously, if the results continue to be there and continue to lift and translate into some superior earnings outcomes, then obviously we'll be incentivized to go harder in the years ahead. Something to revisit a bit in the second half.
Thanks, Scott. Just on leverage. You're targeting to reduce leverage from 3x to 2 x by the end of 2027, but you've called out that the target assumes improved market conditions and capital management initiatives taking effect. I mean, improved market conditions can be a very broad brush, so can you help, please clarify the top 3 or 4 items that you're looking for specifically in regard to your reference to improved market conditions really driving that stronger leverage position?
Yeah, sure. Thanks, Tom. I mean, obviously, it's important for us to, to lower our debt, but the, the most important thing is to grow earnings. In terms of that, improved market conditions include across the board. Obviously, there's the refinery, which, which is important, but also not forgetting that the FSSP phase one will underpin our earnings. We need to, to land that obviously, as soon as we can. That'll be really important. The other factor, of course, is everything that Jen and Scott have talked about with retail, making sure that we're growing earnings there as well. They're, they're really, really critical. We've also called out, which we haven't discussed a whole lot yet, is the sale of surplus land. Bit of a potential.
We're, we're looking at the surplus land there. It's, it's no regret. You know, you don't sell land and lose earnings like you might if you sell the business. So that's what we're looking at there as well. We put this target out of total net debt to EBITDA gearing target of towards 2x by end of FY 2027 at the half year, so we're maintaining that.
Okay. Thanks, Carolyn. Maybe just the last one from me. It's just noting this non-cash impairment of retail sites of AUD 555 million. It's a big step up from the impairment recognized at the half. Now, I understand that that's only an accounting treatment, reflection of the re-recoverable amount compared to the carry value at the point in time, and not necessarily reflecting expected lower profitability. Can you just clarify why the impairment grew so much relative to the first half, given that Convenience & Mobility earnings has improved and so too, the macro outlook, unless your view on future earnings has softened?
Yeah. No, thanks, Tom. I mean, our future view, our earnings, our view on future earnings hasn't softened. Really, the difference between H1 and H2 is that when we did the impairment in H1, our outlook for the rest of FY 2025 was different to where we landed, and then we've taken essentially FY 2025 and then grown it by some, they're all disclosed in the financial statements, were very, very modest growth in rate increases. No, no impairment to any of the opportunities that Jen and Scott have spoken to already, and then obviously a discount to get by a relatively high discount rate. It is, it is mechanical, but it's essentially starting from that FY 2025 base.
Okay. Thanks, Carolyn.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Craig Woolford at MST Marquee. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi, Scott and, and team. The first question, just around that supply chain transition, I've got two parts to this question. The first part is, on one of your slides, you hint at, I guess some transitional cost impacts. Is there, is there a figure or a way we can dimension that? Then the second one is more of a medium-term opportunity. In terms of choosing to go with your own supply chain with, with third-party logistics providers, you know, is there gonna be a step change in the, the number of SKUs you can hold or the speed of delivery that, that will give ongoing benefits?
Maybe I'll answer your second question first. Yes, there's an opportunity to hold a different range of SKUs or a larger range of SKUs. We hold quite a large range at the moment. We hold, I think, 3,600 across the OTR offer, which is quite large. Where we really see the opportunity, though, is bringing in new products or more of our exclusive brands. We've got a number in the stores already. We see that as a material opportunity for us to grow and indeed to replace the loss of the Coles Own Brand, which was quite a successful part of the previously Coles Express offer. The speed to market we can achieve in terms of bringing those brands on is material as well.
I think there's a lot of opportunity in that space. 2026 is a transition year where we'll be running as we stand up those, stand up those supply, those, distribution centers and, and the, and the new supply chain across the course of the year. We'll be transitioning off the product supply agreement with Coles. For a period of time there will be some duplication of supply costs. That's structured as a combination of a fixed fee and a product-based fee. As we don't lift product, that cost will obviously be removed, but there is a fixed fee component. However, the improvement we'll receive from suppliers will help offset that.
Yeah. The other bit, Craig, I think, as, as what Jen said, is, there's just range alignments as well between Express and OTR. The offering store will still be somewhat presented differently, clearly, but what we can do to get alignment just consolidates our buying, our, our position with suppliers, and obviously that brings efficiencies and margin improvements as well, once it's implemented.
It also, I, I think the other thing to remember about is, it will reduce the inventory hold at store. Whilst we will have obviously higher inventory at warehouses, that will reduce inventory hold at store and should also improve your wastage, as you send out just-in-time fulfillment to stores, which will be enabled through the Blue Yonder and the order fulfillment. It, it brings quite a lot of advantage to, advantage to us beyond, being able to control our range more effectively.
Understood. That's really helpful. Just 2, 2 other quick ones. The first is just on that Flybuys. Is that just about the system's enablement under the OTR system and banner? Or is it, you know, is there a cost associated with offering Flybuys to OTR sites?
The original arrangement with Flybuys didn't extend to OTR. We've negotiated an extension to OTR with Flybuys, so that negotiation was concluded and executed last year. There is an IT enablement piece for the OTR pod to be able to deliver the suite of loyalty offers associated with, with Flybuys. There is a cost associated with that. You know, that's one of the ways we could show loyalty and give the customer choice in how they choose to receive loyalty through OTR. It's not necessarily an incremental cost.
Right. You might be swapping it out because you would have had a, a cost incurred under the Reddy banner anyway?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. Yes. Yes. Within the OTR offer, there are ways that customers choose to receive their loyalty at the moment. They may choose to swap or change them and receive Flybuys points instead.
Yeah. What happens to the petrol discounts that were available under the Reddy Express? Who funds that? Like.
Petrol discounts at, on shopper dockets? Yep, they're only available at Reddy Express. We haven't sought to extend that into the OTR network.
on some other-
It's a much less smaller part of the loyalty program now than it used to be. Flybuys is-
Yeah
... is the, is the key one for us now.
With the introduction of Scan Pump Save, we have customers, you know, we have our own digital assets that allow customers to receive under canopy discounts as well, across both brands.
My last one, just an accounting one. Sorry again to go on this, right-of-use asse t. Is it ultimately a higher discount rate on the, the, the lease book that you have? Because essentially, the right-of-use asset should be the, the net present value of those leases. Just trying to understand why.
Yeah
it changed by that amount.
Yeah. I mean, the discount rate is higher, and you're right, we put the leases onto our balance sheet at our incremental borrowing rate. Certainly different, that's just a requirement in any case. Really the key driver is, as I said before, the FY 2025 earnings are definitely like a low point in our earnings cycle, and that's the basis off which we have, as I said, with pretty modest growth rates, growing the earnings and discounted them with a relatively high discount rate.
Okay. All right, thanks, Carolyn.
No worries. Yeah, and obviously, I know I mentioned it before, but none of the exciting initiatives that I'm looking forward to in 2027, of course, are baked into that baseline because they're just about to deliver, yeah.
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Henry Meyers with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Thanks, all. In convenience, there's been a lot of moving parts over the years, so I'm hoping you could just, like, simply step through what savings have been delivered in 2025. Ideally, if you could quantify the moving pieces in 2026 that are within your control, like the supply chain duplication costs, please.
In 2025, I think that again, another recent use in the second half, and we've called it out in the bridge, in the section on acquisition synergies, to try and identify the, you know, synergies that and cost downs that come from bringing the businesses together. We sort of said at the first half that we expected to deliver AUD 50 million worth of synergies in the second half. You can see on the bridge on the left-hand side, there's about AUD 30 million of cost downs in the second half. There's AUD 34 million of fuel synergies, but that incorporates obviously some of the benefit of the full half benefit of the full acquisition of Liberty as well.
Since the, you know, the 50 is made up of the 30 of cost downs and the rest in the fuel synergies, essentially. There's work we've done, all the other sort of trading areas around supplier benefits and so on, but that gets a bit lost in the general wash of trading ups and downs generally. Certainly, just having a lower above-store cost base and improved fuel margin by taking control of the fuel supply chain to the OTR business in South Australia is material uplift and sustainable going forward as well. At the half, we also talked about benefits in FY 2026 related to supply chain benefits. Obviously, we're pushing back the supply chain, the standing up of the independent supply chain by six months.
That's gonna be more back end of, back end of this year into 2027 now. That's still a real, a real upside that we see coming in the year ahead.
Great. Okay, thanks, Scott. Yeah, it does. Thank you. Just a quick follow-up on the commentary on the sale of surplus land, Carolyn, just any extra detail you could share there? Is that retail or distribution sites, and any ballpark value that you could be looking at?
Yeah. I can.
Yeah.
I can talk to that. I mean, I think we've, we've obviously got a significant infrastructure position around the country, quite big land holdings that are associated with those positions that, I think now that we're, we're confident around what footprint we need from an infrastructure perspective, the, the land around those facilities can be safely divested of without impacting our operations in any way. The reality is they're all, you know, there's some positions in, in some markets that are highly valuable. It's not like we just thought of this. We've been working on this for a little while to assess the value of those lands. In fact, Jen did a lot of that work as she looked after supply chain before she stepped into the retail role.
We're quite advanced on it. The reality is, it will take some time to progress the subdivisions that are necessary to separate the land from the operating facilities and then divest. But, you know, that will progress. We'll progress that in earnest over the next, you know, certainly over the rest of this, the next couple of years to try and move that forward, because it's obviously, it's, it's, it's liberation of value that we can attain without impacting our operations or our forward strategies in any way whatsoever. Definitely, definitely a good opportunity, significant opportunity to bring down debt.
Excellent. Thanks, Scott.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Rob Koh at MS. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon. Sorry, but I would like to just ask one more question about the impairments. I do take on board all the comments you've made about the cash flow analysis. Is that impairment that you've now taken, also including site decommissioning and restoration costs? I know your provisions haven't really moved, so I'm assuming yes.
Yeah, the, the impairment really, it encapsulates all costs associated with any particular site and anything forward-looking that, that we know about at this point in time. Yeah, decommissioning is part of the cost of the site.
Great. Okay, thank you. Now, just in the CapEx guidance, if I, if I go back to last year's presentation, with the kind of CapEx outlook for this year, included, say, like AUD 250-AUD 300 of sustaining, and, and the rest for growth, and then a lot of the on the run, rollout to be landlord funded, is that, that funding mix still broadly consistent or are there any changes you'd like to highlight?
Yeah, look, the, I guess, split between sustaining, and growth is, is still relevant, so so that guidance is relevant. Obviously, where we talked about between AUD 350 million and AUD 450 million, so we're looking at the, the bottom to the, the midpoint of the range. Perhaps Scott and or Jen can.
... I'll then start next. Yeah, maybe I can start, Scott can add in. We do have some landlord-funded sites. We've found that that's been a, a, a useful model for us where we're doing quite material redevelopment of sites. It's probably not as well suited to conversion, you know, small conversion works, but it's absolutely something we are exploring with landlords as we do those large-scale redevelopments. Our Glass House Mountains sites would be an example of one that's, that's underway at the moment.
Okay, great. Thanks, Ms. Gray. While we have you, can I maybe ask for your views, if any, on the daily price cap coming in in Victoria? Is that a something that you're ready for, or do you anticipate any impact from that this year?
We are ready for it. All of our systems are up and working already. Do we expect an impact from it? I think it's going to be very interesting. The main thing that will be interesting is how the market cycles, 'cause you can only post a maximum price for the day, and you then cycle down from that price. That will be a function of the market. I guess we'll need to wait and see how that plays out, but it'll certainly bring a period of change to the market as we get used to that new dynamic.
Yeah.
We're, we're, we're ready to go.
All right, sounds good. Final question from me. You have your, your new head of retail, joining you, I guess, in, in July, after, probably some hopefully some high-quality holidays. Can you give us a sense of, how much, into the detail, she is, and, and if there's, you know, just how you, how you're thinking about the, her introduction?
Yeah, I mean, she's. We're obviously really looking forward to her joining, and she's also excited about joining as well. I would say that, you know, it's in good hands with Jen. Things are progressing regardless of when Teresa joins, it'll be a pretty seamless transition. Jen will stay connected with the business as well through the rest of the year and continue to work with Teresa and help drive forward the agenda with as much, you know, focus as we can. I think it will, it'll, it, you know, it's a pretty seamless and it's running well.
Yeah, Teresa's, you know, already, you know, certainly spending some time with Jen, where she can, recognizing she still has a job, so she's still got responsibilities for the company she's working for. More around just getting to understand the business a bit better and some of the people, and just helping to think about, you know, priorities and, when she does, when she does finally join. I think we have to respect the fact she's obviously still in the current, in employment at the current time, so can't expect too much from her just yet.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I think we're, we're both very focused on ensuring it's a, it's a seamless transition, and that we've got as much alignment ahead of her start as possible, so as not to disrupt the business as, as she comes in.
Yeah. Great. Sounds good. All the best with it.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Adam Martin at E&P. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon, Scott, Carolyn, and Jennifer. I suppose just back on slide 18, obviously good metrics there in terms of revenue uplift, but, you know, we haven't got any sort of cost data. You know, any sort of thoughts on sort of return metric sets? I'm thinking sort of EBITDA uplift versus CapEx. Any, any metrics you've got around any of that, please?
Yeah, look, I mean, I'll say a few words, but I, I think, there's a few things to touch on. I think the conversion CapEx is obviously higher than we had, you know, had anticipated right at the very beginning. I think we, we'd always sort of figured it would be about AUD 1 million, and it's turning out to be actually, you know, somewhere, but I think, you know, we said AUD 1.5, but some of the, certainly the average, I think, is a little bit lower than that. As we sort of touched on in the pack here, there's, there's a lot of catch-up capital that even if we were continuing to run the express offer, that we would have to be spending.
There's been a period of obviously underinvestment for a long period of time that we now have to catch up on. The way I sort of get comfortable a bit with the conversion CapEx is that we are also, you know, upgrading facilities that needed to be upgraded, particularly on forecourts, where we just have not invested to reflect the current market and the current grade requirements that customers have and pump sets, et cetera. There's a bit that goes into that and a bit in store to just do basic things like opening, reopening the toilet facilities, which is a key part of the value proposition in the fuel and convenience outlets. That's, that's been the program.
That's not to say we can't do things better and we can't get the cost down, and that's certainly a key, a bit of a key focus as well with the learnings we've had from the stores that we've done. Is, you know, do we need to do as extensively as we're currently doing it, and can we achieve the same outcome in a slightly more cost-effective way that obviously allows us to do more sites with the same money? I think that's a, a sensible thing for us to be, to be going after, and that will all help to improve returns. The second part I would touch on is that, I mean, we've got some really impressive sales uplifts, coming through that, you know, the earnings, earnings are lagging those sales uplifts, so we're not seeing the same uplift in earnings.
That's a bit reflective of, that you install when you open a new site, particularly around labor and investment and product range, and accepting of higher wastage and shrinkage as you allow get customers familiar with the offer. There's a bit around that. That's just part of the maturity of stores, but I think there's also areas, and perhaps I'll hand over to you, Jen, where we think we can do that better as well, important the returns.
I think, we've spoken about supply chain at length. That will be a huge enabler to growing our earnings. A number of these stores, we've also transitioned from, you know, non-24-hour operation to the OTR, we never closed model, so a additional, additional labor costs associated with that. As we get the, the customers and the penetration of sites in the market, actually being able to do above the line marketing of that offer and telling people what OTR is and what it stands for, we see is incredibly important, as well. I, I think there is no one thing that will, will help us see the returns we want out of these stores. It's, it's an array of things.
It's wastage, it's labor, it's energy costs, it's, you know, more cost-effective conversions, and it's an education piece for customers about what that offer is. I think as we get all of those things working together in kind of in sync, that's where we'll see the real earnings uplift. That's what we're focused on.
Okay, thank you. Just a, a follow-up, are you seeing sort of better returns for the, the new stores that have been opened or the, or the Reddy Express conversions? You know, thus far, I know it's early, but just any initial signs there, please?
They're very different beasts. Reopening a store which has a customer base and an established traffic flow and catchment is very different to opening an NTI. Typically, we're seeing, I mean, it depends store by store, of course, but typically you would see a conversion reach maturity ahead of an NTI. An NTI, sorry, a new industry, a new store, can be, you know, 6-18 months to reach maturity. We would hope that with these stores, we would be seeing it within, you know, 3 months, maybe a little longer, depending on the store. As we get better at doing conversions without closing stores, we should see that improve as well.
Yeah.
Yeah. They're quite different.
Okay, now, thanks for the color. That's great.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Gordon Ramsay at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Well, thank you very much. Just on your store, new stores and conversions, are we looking at similar numbers in FY 2026 to what you delivered in FY 2025? In other words, three quarters of the new OTR stores will be conversions. Is that a good kind of basis to look at what you're doing going forward?
I would say you'll probably have a different mix. We have an active pipeline of new stores, but new stores don't always arrive on schedule, and they're a lot less predictable than a conversion. You know, where you're waiting for development applications or are doing major earthworks, you can get quite a lot of movement in new stores. I think you'll see a mix of new and conversions this year.
Okay, and just a question on, I think, Scott, you, you were talking about aligning the digital loyalty and digital offers across both Reddy Express and OTR platforms. Have we still got two platforms running? I think you said that earlier. Isn't there an urgency to go to one platform? Is that required to, for instance, move to Flybuys at OTR in the second quarter of FY 2026?
Yeah, we can. Not necessarily. I think we know we can align the customer-facing offer without having to align the back office, the back-end systems at the same time. The priority is to get the customer-facing offers aligned because it's quite, as you, I mean, it's quite confusing for customers, right? Particularly, you come to a market like New South Wales, we start rolling out OTRs and replacing Express, and it's very confusing if customers come in and their whole loyalty experience with us is completely different. They, whilst the stores are different, they still understand that, but the brand, you know, the fuel brand is the same, and they associate a lot of it with the Shell brand as well.
Removing all that clutter and confusion is the priority at the moment, Gordon. I think as we, as I sort of also touched on earlier, it's, we're in a state now with the, the work we do at the back end doesn't have to be so schedule driven. We can just do that at our own pace and without disrupting the organization. I think you can think about them as two different things.
I understand what you're saying, but I think from a cost viewpoint, aren't you duplicating costs?
Yeah, look, I mean, absolutely. I mean, it'll be, it's certainly gonna be, it's certainly gonna be very beneficial when we get to one system. No doubt.
Okay.
That's, that's actually something we, we wanna get to as the right, you know, as soon as we can, but at the right pace. So.
I think the last discussions, last question from me, with the previous CEO of Convenience and Mobility, was that there was no change to the EBITDA target, I think by around 2028 of AUD 500 million. Have you updated that guidance or made any comments on it?
No, we haven't updated that yet, Gordon. We will, we'll certainly come back to that. I think what I have said previously, which is probably still true, is that, which I think is still true, is that, you know, the, the opportunity is still, is still there. We still, I still, I still feel very confident about the opportunity, albeit you have, you have to adjust that for the impact of tobacco, because it's obviously been a known material impact that is with us for now. Whether that, whether that is recoverable in time with more enforcement remains to be seen. That's certainly one thing that has changed. The other thing that's changed is just probably the timeline. I think obviously 2028 is not that far away.
It's taken us a bit longer to get to the point we're at today than we had imagined when we started. Maybe I just, you know, but most certainly, the timeline is different than what we set out a couple of years ago when we started this journey. You know, I, I still believe in the potential for this business, and we're starting to see, you know, some really good green shoots coming through in terms of the early conversion activity, which demonstrates the opportunity. Yeah, we've got some headwinds that we didn't anticipate when we started, which we've got to address and overcome, but this is still a fundamentally a huge opportunity for our business. The convenience market is enormous.
The offer that we have at the moment is, outside HR, is pretty unsophisticated, and our customers are responding well to an upgrade of the offer. I would say, too, that the OTR offer now is, you know, three or four years old from when we started, so there's still room for that, even with that offer, to extend it and expand it further into new categories. It remains a really exciting opportunity for the company. That, that target still sits there. It just might be a bit further out than what we anticipated.
Okay, thanks, Scott.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Ryall with Rimor Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you very much. Scott, I was hoping to turn your mind to your energy portfolio, and give some of the other guys a rest.
Thanks, Scott.
You've made the, you made two comments on, on that in the outlook. One related to the FSSP on, on the refining business and also the resilient earnings to the C&I business. I was hoping to just ask on those. In terms of the, the, phase one of the, the FSSP review, I wonder, could you just, talk to what are the discussions focused on? Is it, is it looking back and whether your returns have been adequate or whether it's the, the change in your cost base, going forward, and therefore the, the ability to earn an adequate return on capital for, for investments? And does it impact on your view on what you're doing on renewable fuels, which you've mentioned a couple of times?
Then on the C&I business, I-I'm just wondering what resilience obviously doesn't give any direction, and it's the first year that it's gone backwards for a while. You mentioned in your press release a few of the investments that you've made in the in the last little while around new extensions of your network. I wonder if, if you could just comment on the outlook for those with, with those extensions in your network in mind, please.
Yes. Okay, cool. Yeah, I mean, on the FSSP, which was negotiated with Federal Government back in 2021, was principles of that was always to ensure there was a safety net. That meant that protected or ensured that we earned a margin that offset the operating costs of running the business and the sustain, the ongoing sustained capital to run, you know, general maintenance of capital required to run the business as well. That from a cash perspective, we would be always, you know, have a safety net, which has protected us to be break even, essentially on a cash basis moving forward. Of course, you know, the workings of that would, it from quarter to quarter might be different, but on average, that was the outcome.
Since that point in time, obviously, costs have moved up more, more quickly and higher than we had anticipated, just driven by inflation. We have had additional costs imposed on us that weren't there at the time, particularly around Safeguard Mechanism, for example, and cost of construction, partly inflation, partly doing business in Australia has been heavily elevated as well, and that's obviously been reflected in the low sulfur gasoline project. All those things have meant that the current safety net doesn't provide the protection that was anticipated back in 2021, and that's the basis of the review that's currently underway under phase one of the FSSP with the federal government and the one that we expect an answer on in the near, very near future.
Phase two is really looking at what is necessary to sustain refining, beyond the current, current FSSP, which, which ends in 2030. What would it take for refining to run into the next decade, essentially? That of, that, you know, the, the, that will assess, you know, all the whole elements that are implicit in phase one as well, but also, I guess what's beyond that, what's necessary to sustain not just running the, the plant as it sits today, but sustain growth capital as well going forward and, and invest in this facilities for the longer-term future, and, and clearly that takes you into the renewable space and what investment would make sense in refining to support lower carbon fuel production. When you're into growth capital, then what the FSSP phase two review needs to assist.
What's the logical return on capital to actually encourage you know, our company to invest in those sorts of projects? That's a more comprehensive overview. That has started, but it's probably going to move forward in earnest once phase I has been completed. That's a bit more for the future, but certainly something we anticipate to complete with the Federal Government before the end of this year, and obviously important for the long-term outlook for that, that, for our refinery at Geelong. Lots of reasons why that should be a win-win outcome for both the company and Government. We're going into that with a lot of confidence, but obviously that's all ahead of us. Commercial, it obviously continues to have a very stable and reliable return now for a number of years.
Doing, doing extremely well, as we sort of talk in the pack, really built on our infrastructure position and our relationships with customers. The sorts of investments we've made in the last year, moving into marine market in Brisbane, extending our aviation network. It's really trying to build on our strengths and our capability, where we, you know, markets where we have a competitive advantage and, and have opportunities to take that capability into new parts of the country where we're not currently present. That's been the basis of our growth over the course of the last 12 months. There's always a bit of, you know, you have to invest before you, you see the returns, and so, that's a bit the case last year.
Those investments were made predominantly in the second half of last year. The returns are more for the year ahead. That's a bit, a bit of a feature in the result that we've printed for 2025. Yeah, I think we're, you know, expecting commercial to still be a reliable, consistent performer and contribute significantly to the earnings of the group. You know, it's a great business. It's underpinned by a pretty privileged infrastructure around the country, which we want to continue to build on and protect as we look out in the pack.
It'll be more, but, you know, given where we are and given what's in front of us with retail, it'll be mostly focused on organic, sensible, organic-type investments as we've made in the last 12 months.
Yep. Okay, great. Thank you. That's all I had.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to now hand back to Mr. Wyatt for closing remarks.
Look, I'm, I'm conscious of time. We're 5 minutes over, so I'll keep it really brief. Obviously, it's been great to finish the year with a really strong half in front behind us. As I touched on earlier, it's half that, you know, is reflective of what we... is the underlying performance of the retail business, particularly moving forward. You know, we pleased with how that's, how that, how we have finished the year. Looking forward confidently to the year ahead to, to build on that, finish off, you know, the last remaining piece of major transition work ahead of us, and obviously move forward with the conversion program and enter into 2027 with some really, you know, continued runs on the board and confidence about where we're heading within convenience.
Commercials, I just touched on, another, another reliable, consistent year ahead. Refining, yeah, a bit of a critical year for refining sector generally. Both, both refineries, really dependent on a review of the FSSP. But I think beyond that, I think still, we still look forward to quite a constructive refining margin environment through the end of the decade, and we're in a position now with a, you know, five-year major maintenance cycle behind us to really take good advantage of that with a clean run over the next four years to produce well, minimize capital spend in that part of our business, and more broadly across the group, stay focused on capital discipline and strengthen the balance sheet.
A lot to do, but we know what we need to do. We're looking forward to getting on with it in 2026. Thanks for joining us, thanks for support.