Gentlemen, to Whitehaven Coal Q4 FY24 quarterly production report. All participants are currently on mute. Following management commentary, we will open the call for questions from sell-side analysts. To queue for questions, you may press star one on your touchtone keypad. Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Managing Director and CEO, Paul Flynn. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody, and thanks very much for taking the time to dial into the June 2024 quarterly production report for Whitehaven, last quarter of the year, but also first quarter, if you like, of our ownership of our Queensland operations. Little bit of a change in terms of the structure of our report, as you can see. So I'll go through that in the normal fashion, and then we'll find ourselves at the Q&A session, which I'm looking forward to. Lots of different questions about the various parts of the business. In summary, in summary, I think it's been a very good quarter for us. Very pleased with the results that we've been able to achieve, both in New South Wales and also in our first three months of ownership of our Queensland assets.
So strong Queensland production has been very good across both sites. The acquisition completed on the second of April, certainly very positive, and the transition has gone exceedingly well and the integration process continues at a pace. Volume-wise, we've done very well. We think across the first quarter of our ownership, coming in with ROM production of 4.8 million tons in the guidance that we gave. Queensland sales at 3.2 million tons reflects some slippage which will fall into the September quarter, and I'll get to that a little bit later. That's primarily focused on Daunia, so I'll explain that a little bit further. Average coal price for the quarter, AUD 271, was achieved from the Queensland operations for the quarter.
As you'll know, largely an inherited position from the book that we've acquired. Over to New South Wales, just quickly, at a high level, also, quarter production has gone very well. ROM production there at the managed level, 4.9 million tons across the operations, totaling out for the year for New South Wales, 19.7 million tons, which is well within our range of guidance as well. New South Wales equity sales of produced coal, 3.3 million tons for the quarter, 13.2 for the full year 2024, also within our guidance range. Average coal price achieved, AUD 207 per ton for the quarter, and AUD 217 per ton for the full year.
Of course, a couple of movements there in terms of the operational components in our mix. Vickery tons have come out for the first time now in the month of June as budgeted and planned, which is very good. The completion of mining at Werris Creek in April was obviously a milestone as well. Flipping over to the group performance quickly. Safety performance has been excellent in New South Wales. Been really good at continuing the positive trends that we've been exhibiting over the last few periods, and down to 3.3, our TRIFR in New South Wales, which is quite incredible considering the operations is a blend of open cut and underground. So 30% improvement on FY 2023. Terrific performance from our team.
The TRIFR for Queensland is 6.6, and so, we think there's clearly upside here for improvement as we integrate the assets into our broader group. Managed ROM production at 9.7 million tons for the quarter, and, the total for the year, obviously New South Wales plus one quarter, Queensland at 24.5 million tons in FY 2024, 34% up. Equity sales does the same thing essentially, and-
Pardon me, this is the operator. We seem to have lost connection with the speaker line. Please hold while we get them reconnected.
... Online. I'll produce that. Not sure what's going on, and not sure exactly when I lost you, so I'm just gonna quickly go back to safety performance. Been excellent for the period. Fantastic. 3.3 is the TRIFR for New South Wales. Queensland came in at 6.6. So some work to be done there, as I say. Managed on ROM coal production at 9.7 for the quarter. Certainly very good. That's full year of New South Wales, one quarter of Queensland, which is 24.5 in total, for the year. Sales does the same thing, 6.5 for the quarter, 16.4, for the full year on an equity basis.... Revenue is 59% metallurgical coal, 41% thermal.
That's mixes slightly out from what, what we expect from, the aggregate of these, North and South, or New South Wales and Queensland together, but I'll speak to that a little bit, soon. And obviously, we've experienced some bumpiness in terms of, train parking at Daunia, and so I'll get to that in a minute. Rounded out the balance sheet, net debt is, AUD 1.3 billion at 30 June, reflecting our prudent capital management. Now, the table of results, the table of results are flipped over onto page 2, it's giving you so the ROM totals for the quarter, which I've already stated some of them.
And just to remind everybody, that, the equity, the equity balance is of course, all of Queensland, and essentially 80% of the management, the managed tons of New South Wales. Just to remind everybody, because the numbers, if you're not familiar with them, takes a little bit of reconciling to go through them. So again, ROM total 9.7 versus 4.4. The ROM managed level across the whole business, saleable coal production at 8.3 versus 3.9. These all reflect a slightly greater than doubling of the volumes and, across what you would've seen historically for the business. And again, the equity tons itself, 100% of Queensland, and essentially rule of thumb, 80% of what you see at the managed level in New South Wales.
So 8.75 in the equity ROM coal production tons for the period for this quarter, versus 3.5 for the previous quarter. That trend follows down in this table as you go down. Queensland, of course, is on a 100% basis, as you can see in the table, at 4.8 for our ROM coal production, the 3.98 for saleable coal production, the sales at 3.2, as previously stated, and our managed coal stocks in Queensland at 1.56 million tons for the year end. New South Wales numbers I've also mentioned there as well, just so everybody...
I know it'll take a little bit of time just to work out the difference between equity and also managed, but that should, that should, that table should be very useful for you. Over in the Queensland operations, as I say, strong quarter, very pleased with the production results for the quarter, so I think effective, a safe and smooth transition into our hands, I have to say, for these two operations, which is very pleasing from our perspective. Volumes at 4.8 million tonnes are certainly very, very positive. The saleable coal production, as I say, 4 million tonnes with sales at 3.2.
Now, sales have been affected in this quarter at Daunia, and the cause of that largely is the allocation of pathways to Daunia by the rail service provider out of essentially the bundled package where Daunia was previously managed. Obviously in the ownership of its previous owner, it was run as part of a portfolio, and the separation of those pathways out and allocated to us did take some time. And so we have sales which have slipped into the September quarter. Now, that is, we have brought into service one of the competitors in terms of to augment the amount of haulage capacity we have at Daunia, so that has helped.
We see that as normalizing as we continue forward, but there has been some slippage into the September quarter, which we have to acknowledge. Stock positions as a result in Queensland are pretty healthy. So again, production-wise, we're very pleased with both sites. Daunia at 1.3 million tonnes, these are probably a little bit lower than what actually is inherently reflected there, just because we were cautious not to load too much product coal onto the stockpile if we were struggling to get the allocated pathways necessary. So we did actually turn our focus a little bit away from coal production onto overburden removal. So even despite that, the totals, the 1.3, very good total, and certainly reflective of the production averages that we've given you when we announced the deal.
Blackwater also done very well in that regard, 3.6 million tonnes for ROM coal production, saleable coal production, 3 million tonnes, and sales of 2.3 million tonnes. Again, reflected a very, very good transition, and I think steers everybody quite clearly to what the productive capacity of these assets are. We all acknowledge that June quarter in Queensland is typified by decent weather, and so production in the June quarter does generally do pretty well. But, I think this point's a very good positive sign in terms of what these assets can do. I know there's some curiosity about how the sell-down process for Blackwater is going.
I can say to you that that is going well, and, we feel pretty good about that process, and, I know everybody would like some more information about that now, but it is coming to the important stages of that process now. Bidders are well engaged. We're very positive about what we see out of that, so, just stay tuned for the next month or two, and, as that progresses to something that's, that is, solidified. New South Wales operations, I said, done well during the quarter, so very nicely, open cuts done nicely, and Narrabri has, has certainly shown very good signs of improvement there as you can see. 4.9 million tonnes was excellent, 13% up quarter-on-quarter, and saleable coal production at 4.3 was also high by 11%.
Stocks are healthy at 1.1, or healthier than where they were. So if I just go to the mines quickly, Maules Creek consistently has performed well during the course of the year, so that's nice to see. 2.6 million tonnes for the year. A little bit less than the March quarter, but certainly a consistent performance from Maules Creek across the year. Rounding out 11.4, which was very solid, and 20% up on obviously a difficult year for last year. And it just has come to conclusion there, and we have transitioned to 100% in developing at the site, which is positive.
Narrabri, as I say, has done well, so 1.5 million tonnes, that's quite a step up from where we were with a difficult quarter in March, and, on an annualized basis, gives you a better indication of where this is trending. So the improvements have been very positive to see. And so even though at 4.8 million tonnes for the year was just under the guidance of where we were as a site at 5.1, we still see those very positive trends and, and the improvements that have been made there are continuing into this new year. So that, that certainly is trending in the right direction.
Gunnedah Open Cuts, if you're not familiar with the GOC acronym, Gunnedah Open Cuts has also done well during the course of the period, 3.5 million tons, broadly in line with last year. Obviously, Werris Creek has come to a conclusion, so made very little contribution during the course of the production totals for this quarter. But Tarrawonga itself has done 600,000 tons in the June quarter, which was very good. And obviously, we've got 100,000 tons out of Vickery, in line with our plan, which have emerged in June of this year. And so that's pointing in a very good direction. So the quarter itself for New South Wales, I have to say, positive. Over to export coal sales and realized price, I know there'll be lots of interest in that.
As I mentioned earlier, the split between the products at 59%-41%, that's, that's not indicative of where we think this goes and where we know it will go. This is obviously a revenue measure, and so is affected by price and volume. So I just want to draw a little bit of that out for you, and a couple of key stats here in the next paragraph, of course, in this report. Now, the split between the products, between the primary coking products, between the hard coke and the semi-hard, 55% is low relative to where it is, ordinarily through a production year. This is just one quarter's data, of course, and we shouldn't infer too much, but that is what's popped out, obviously, in the course of the production split in this period.
So 55-45, the primary coking products versus the PCI and semi -soft bundled into the 45. As we've guided you before, that should be 65-70 in an ordinary year, and this is just a timing difference in the first quarter of our ownership. So I shouldn't be concerned too much about that, and as I said before, the Daunia sales were lower, affecting the revenue total split because of the pathing issue that I mentioned earlier. So the rail service provider is obviously working with us to try and recover the ground that we've lost in terms of pathways that we should have been able to achieve during this quarter, and they'll fall into the September quarter. So two dimensions there that need to be taken into account.
But otherwise, sales have gone well, product qualities have gone well, and we've given you also the realizations for the products there in terms of the two product groups there. So if we go to the hard coking and semi-hard, 81% of the PLV hard coking price for everyone's reference, so that will be a good thing for people to be able to use going forward. And in this market, PCI and semi-soft is achieving about 66% of the PLV hard coking price. Again, another metric that will be useful for you to use as you're modeling out on the price. We know that that part of the market is heavily influenced by Russian supply into the semi-soft and PCI market, so it is lower than you would historically expect from a realization perspective through a cycle.
Normally, that's around the 75% of the PLV hard coke, as we've noted below. The primary hard, hard products that we're selling, both out of Daunia and also, Blackwater, will get between 85% and 90%, if you reflect historically on how the realizations work. Again, because Daunia, being the better product, pro-product quality of the group from Queensland, less represented in this quarter than we otherwise would have, because of these pathing issues, that obviously has affected the revenue split in this quarter, which you should see normalize to the 65%-70%, as I mentioned, earlier. New South Wales operations, again, AUD 207 realized in Aussie dollar terms. Good result. AUD 137 for the quarter versus 136, the average of gC NEWC during the quarter.
Across the year, we did a little better than that again. We realized $140 versus the $136 for the year, taken as a whole. So pretty good, pretty good situation there. The market outlook itself, look, both sides of our business now, we are exposed to what we see as two structurally constrained supply dynamics here, certainly in the met coal side of things. There's certainly I mean, recent news has obviously highlighted constraints in supply, and on the thermal side, we also see similar sort of changes coming on as well.
So we feel good about the outlook, about in terms of better pricing in the future, and certainly see a muted supplier response to what is already good, very good pricing, even today, at $230, $235 for the hard coke versus... and the $135 for the Aussie. I mean, very good pricing, but very muted supplier response that can respond and take advantage of that. So that, that certainly will put upward pressure on coal prices going forward. Over the page, production costs. We've come in at AUD 1 over the upper end of our, our guidance, 114. This is unaudited, but we feel pretty confident about those numbers.
Unit costs at Queensland, obviously, we've only had a couple of months of ownership here, and after a few weeks of since the close, we'll bring those finalized numbers to you with the FY 2024 results in 4 weeks' time in August. At the same time, we'll give you obviously the guidance for the full year guidance for FY 2025. New South Wales Domestic Coal Reservation Scheme, thought we'd just notice that. Sounds glorious as a scheme, it's actually a scam. But that was about 1 million tons annually devoted to that endeavor over the last 5 quarters. That has come to a conclusion, so that is good. Nice to see the back of that.
At the same time, obviously, the first of July came about a change in the royalty rates in New South Wales. So for everyone's calculation, open cuts at 10.8, underground at 9.8. Development projects, I'll just call out the highlight of our spend during that period. Really, it's Vickery related. So early mine at Vickery, AUD 31 million went into that, setting it up, as I say, on time and budget, doing very well, and tons have emerged in June as expected and on time. Narrabri Stage Three continues to move its way through the various stages of activist engagement. And having defeated this case against the Narrabri Stage Three EPBC approval, there is a further step required here, which is the activists have sought leave to appeal to the High Court.
We don't think this has any merit over and above what has already been knocked down twice convincingly in the two previous court appearances of this case. We expect a resolution or this consideration of leave to be granted or not. We think that's low likelihood to be adjudicated in the next month or so. Stay tuned for some movement there. Winchester South, of course, is going through its various Land Court preparation processes. As everybody knows, anybody who's objected during the course of the exhibition period for the EIS has an opportunity to go to Land Court, and that is the way of the Queensland process. So we're in the prep stages there, both legally and otherwise, to make sure we defend our project.
Just looking at the page, finally, just to wrap up the guidance here. As far as the guidance goes, raw guidance came into our group guidance, well, which is good. Managed coal sales within guidance, equity coal sales within guidance. We've come in unaudited, about AUD 1 over the top of our guidance due to inflation and less tons from Narrabri than we otherwise would have liked. As we've been managing our capital spend, as we alluded to in previous quarters, we're trending towards the bottom end of our guidance. We've come in around AUD 380, which is under the bottom of capital guidance for the year. Again, we'll be confirmed with the closure of the books off, and the auditing process with the full year results.
So overall, very good quarter. We're very pleased with both ends of this. New South Wales has done very well in closing out the year. First quarter of Queensland, certainly a pretty handy and safe and seamless transition into our hands for both Blackwater and Daunia. We will be giving guidance to you as we close out the full year financials on the 22nd of August. And of course, we've highlighted in the March report in terms of the format in which that guidance will take. So with that, thanks for your attention. Hope you'll stay on for a bit of Q&A, and I'll hand back to the operators to get the Q&A started. Again, apologies for the technical glitch that sort of dropped the line there during the course of the discussion. Thank you.
Thank you. Sell-side analysts, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Rahul Anand from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Paul and team. Thanks for the call. Thank you for clarifying that you're expecting to go back to the 65-35 split in the Queensland assets in terms of semi-soft products. That's helpful. I just wanted to understand perhaps two things as a follow on from that comment. When roughly do you envision getting there? And then how does the coal quality look like over the next five years, I guess? Is there any variability in the coal coming out of those mines that we need to be aware of in terms of the pricing side of things? That's the first one, and I'll come back with the second. Thanks.
Yep. Yeah, thanks, Rahul. Look, and I've got, as you know, I've got Ian and Kevin here with me as well, so they can jump in and assist with answers to questions along the way. But there's nothing, there's nothing unusual, I would have said, to draw out of the coal split, other than the fact that this is just what we've inherited in terms of timing of sales and the fourth through the quarter. The sales that we've booked in this quarter really had nothing to do with our control of it. The operational dimensions of the performance of the mine, we can take ownership for, because that's been under our stewardship. But the book, the book of sales and the timing of when PCI is delivered versus the hard coke, that was just in train as it is.
As you know, there's been a fair queue of few, few coke boats off the coast, looking to be to be loaded, so that the timing of them even coming into the port has been a challenge. And there are quite a few sales in the book which have been caught up where there have been co-shipper related activities there, where we've delivered one part of the hold and another shipper has contributed another piece from a blending perspective. And that also has influenced when that particular coal quality was delivered as opposed to another. And so, look, there's nothing, nothing too much to infer from any of that over a year. We shouldn't be gravitating back to our 65-70 split of the primary coking products versus the secondary, if I can call them that.
As I say, I'm putting the hard coke and the semi hard in the primary bucket, and obviously the semi soft and the PCI in the secondary bucket. But nothing you should infer from that, the 65%-70% across a year, we're happy with that split, and this is just short term. Obviously, if we had put, as I said, more of the Daunia tons in there, and this is... What I'm trying to explain there, is just we've had less than the necessary and contracted pathways all-allocated to Daunia than we would've liked. And we're contractually entitled to, I might add.
But there was a bit of a glitch in terms of the, if you like, the segregation of Daunia out of the previous owner's contractual and portfolio managed position, set up as a standalone allocation to us. There was a glitch in that, and so we received less pathways than we would've, we were due, and so we've been working with them closely to make sure that's recovered as quickly as possible, and so some sales have slipped into the September quarter. But Daunia is coming back to the point I was making about realization. Daunia obviously is the higher end of those products, and so that has influenced the split of revenue in this particular quarter. So we will see more of that fall into Q1 of the new financial year. Does that help?
Okay. So does that then suggest, Paul, that your stocks that currently sit in the Queensland assets are probably quite heavy on the primary product versus the secondary?
... Yeah, yeah, look, well, the product stocks themselves are healthy for two reasons. Firstly, Daunia, because of that issue I've just spent some time discussing, and then secondly, we've actually got some healthy stocks at Blackwater as well. Nothing sales related in terms of the logistics movement. That is obviously on a separate line and moving well, and no problems there. But we have built some stocks ahead of a planned shutdown in the September quarter for the CHPP, just to hold a bit more stock back. So both stocks levels are good for those two reasons.
Okay, so the production splits are at 65/35 already then it sounds like. It's just that the sales book has been skewed, and that's what's caused your revenue differential, I guess. And then the second part of my question was just around the coal quality and if it changes in the foreseeable future. You've had the keys for about a quarter now.
Yeah.
Any sort of update there?
Nothing, nothing, nothing changed from our assumptions there at all, Rahul. No, we're quite happy with what we're seeing there, so that's, that's all quite reassuring.
Perfect. Okay, look, my second and final question is around Narrabri Stage Three. You've called it out in the release today as well, that it seems to be progressing in the right direction. I guess my question was more around from a top-down perspective for the group. In order to... Once you have made the Blackwater sale, and once you've got the cash through the door, I guess you're gonna have two ways to deploy that capital. One's gonna be your Narrabri Stage Three, but then the other is perhaps to build Vickery full scale.
Given how Narrabri has performed in the past two years, do you think that still takes precedence over that Vickery development, or do you think you go down Vickery before going down, an expansion at Narrabri, and maybe just keep it at a lower production setting, or something of that nature that you can do there?
Yeah, look, it's a good question. It's a good question, and probably requires a little bit more time than we have here, Rahul, but it's a very good question. I'll try and answer the best I can within the time constraints that we've got. In terms of Narrabri's performance, we've talked about. It obviously been disappointing in this year, and so we've talked about a close examination of the capital involved in Narrabri Stage Three, and you can see that we've wound that back considerably from where we've been in the past. And when we come out with our guidance for that as well, as part of FY 2025 guidance on the 22nd of August, you'll see a further moderation in terms of how capital will be allocated to Narrabri.
Now, we think Narrabri is improving nicely. Don't get me wrong, that's good. But we certainly have taken the opportunity, with the advent of the Queensland business arriving into the portfolio, to examine what is the best use of capital, across the entire book, and that includes Narrabri, and that includes Vickery, as you noted. So I'm not gonna answer the question here, but what I'm saying is that from an expectation perspective, our view is that there's no immediate—there'll be no immediate requirement to purchase a longwall, a replacement longwall, over the next few years.
I know that we've talked about that, that in the past, being part of Stage Three, but of course, these delays that we've experienced does, and the operational performance, does contribute to a reassessment of what you think the appropriate allocation of capital is, given the performance of the site.
Okay, that's excellent. That, that does answer a lot of what I was asking. Look, I had one more question around cost, but I'll leave that to someone else or queue up again. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Lachlan Shaw, from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning, Paul. Thanks for your time. So just a quick clarification on Daunia. So you're suggesting that the catch-up on rail is more September quarter rather than December half? Is that the way we should think about it?
Say that again?
Sorry, just the catch-up on rail shipments in Daunia, out of Daunia. Is that, is that a September quarter issue, or is it more of a December half, you know, two quarter issue?
Yeah, look, I'd like to see as much as we can in September, but I think it'd be difficult for us to say that there might not be some slippage into the December quarter. I think obviously we don't control all of that. We have taken steps, obviously, to bring in a competitor into this, to obviously give the incumbent a bit of a hurry-up. But it's two dimensions here, so it's not just the rail. It's not just the rail parts, and that is the primary issue. So it's the below rail piece of it that has been the primary issue. Then it's obviously the trains, number of trains turning up when you do have parts.
So, I think September we'll see the bulk of it addressed, but there—I, I wouldn't say that there wouldn't be a little bit of slippage into the December quarter. I think it's a little early to be calling that one.
Yeah, okay. Got it. Understood. Thank you. And then just my second question quickly: So just maybe, Queensland overall, you've got fairly healthy inventories right now. Could you maybe comment, notwithstanding the maintenance issues that you're sort of getting prepared for, could you comment on the inventory? Is that where you sort of see it in steady state? And then I guess related to that, just any sort of, again, insight, you've had the keys of Blackwater now for a quarter, any insight there in terms of the pre-stripping and what shape that's in? Thank you.
Yep. Yep. Yeah, look, the stock levels, I'd say a little bit higher than what we'd otherwise see. They're lucky. I would expect that to come down a little bit, both in the case of Daunia, obviously for the reasons we just described, and also because we do have a shut coming next quarter at Blackwater. Look, the Blackwater's routings and logistics system has been working absolutely fine. Nothing, nothing to see there, so we feel very comfortable about all that, and generally the transition at Blackwater has gone very, very well. You've raised a good point about the stripping, so I've got Ian handy here. He's been very keen to have a chat about that for everybody. So I'll hand over to Ian to describe where we're at with that.
Yeah, so Lachlan, you know, a fair bit of focus on the drill and blast aspect there. Now we've got ourselves into a balance of shot stock that allow us to keep everything running efficiently. I mean, our target is to increase that, but you know, we've transitioned over, well, the final transition was June, July, but over the quarter, transitioned the explosives supplier at Blackwater, and you know, we're seeing some very positive upside there. You know, we've worked on increasing lighting capacity, and you know, bringing the teams on board. Whitehaven brings a high level of expertise in that space, so that's all progressing.
I think the other thing I'd point out these stocks that probably are a bit different to Whitehaven, are older, with dragline pits, you know, the coal gets uncovered and it's fairly lumpy. It's not uncommon, a day or two can sort of be another difference of 1 million tons, plus in the pit as the strip becomes available. So you'll see a little bit of that going forwards, too.
Great. Okay. Thank you. I'll pass it on. I've got more to come back later. Thanks.
Yep. Just to add to Ian's summary there, I think as we've highlighted, we knew that there's obviously an investment in stripping required here in the pit, and as Ian described, it's blasted inventories as well as just pre-strip. So we have known that for some time, and as we talked about before, we did have protections in the contract to deal with the pre-strip. So the pre-strip, the asset was handed over to us in compliance with the strip ratio requirements of the contract. But we do think the inventories are pre- or blasted ground, and overburden in advance, are low for what we want in terms of the steady state operational outputs we're looking for. And so we do need to invest in that. So I think that's just worthwhile stating.
That doesn't happen overnight, of course. You'll see us doing that over the next 12 months at least.
That May performance in the pre-strip was the best month they've had for the two-
Yeah. Done very well. Yep.
Thank you. The next question comes from Robert Stein from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you for the opportunity. Just a question on the BHP contingent payments. How will they be treated from an accounting point of view in the upcoming results? Just wondering whether they're an impact against realized pricing, whether they flow through to cash, how would they be reflected? And I've got a follow-up.
Yeah, no, happy to answer that question. So the you need to sit down and work out what you think you're actually gonna pay over the period. So we'll do that probability-based assessments, based on what we think coal price is gonna look like, and what volume is gonna look like over that period. And then what happens is that you establish you put a liability on your balance sheet for that expected payment. And it, in effect, that just finishes up in part of the purchase price. So it doesn't impact your realizations, your realizations of what you send out the door on an invoice. And how it comes through as an amortization charge, effectively as an amortization charge on the mineral tenements that you've acquired. Robert?
Thank you. And in terms of capital allocation going forward, with those contingent payments going out, with, you know, the CapEx expected, you know, how should we think about allocations back to shareholders in that context?
I think you should think about that the same way we've been saying that probably since about last September, October, which is how we've described that is that the dividend policy or the capital allocation policy remains the same. The dividend is likely to be out of the New South Wales business rather than out of the Queensland business, because the cash flow from the Queensland business will be used to retire the deferred payments to BMA. And the buyback is on hold for a couple of years while we do that. So we think we reward shareholders with dividends out of New South Wales, and we'll have that decision in August out of the board, for the final dividend.
Look forward to resuming the full suite of approaches that are available to us at an appropriate time in the future.
Thank you. That's really good. And just, sorry, one last one, just, a modeling question. When should we think about the timing of those cash outflows to BHP? Is that the end of the financial year, end of the quarter?
They're on two points. So for the benefits of the modelers, I'll have to answer a few questions for a few people here. The payment to BHP or BMA, the deferred payments that aren't contingent, are due, like, in the first week of the June quarter each year. And the payments for the contingent amounts are due in the first week of the September quarter each year.
Thank you. That's really helpful.
Thank you. Your next question comes from John Sharp from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, Paul and team. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one on the CHPP closure in September at Blackwater. What's the planned shutdown period, and is it just normal standard maintenance, or is there something specific? You know, did BHP keep up the planned maintenance there, or is there extra work to do? And how do you see it affecting sales, any unwashed product coming through? And, also, is there any other CHPP shutdowns during the quarter?
Look, it's pretty normal. It's an annual shutdown they do in sort of July each year, as I understand it, nothing special. It's all on track and progressing, and should be done very shortly.
Okay. Any time period there?
It'll be done by the end of this month.
Okay. And just on Narrabri, good comeback there after the issues you've had. Have you still got the washout on the face? Does it extend into the next block? Also, when's the next longwall move planned? And also, can I just ask, do you see Narrabri ever getting back to 7 million tons, or can we think of it more of a 5- to 6-million-ton pit now?
Okay, I'll try and take those in order. So yes, we've still got washouts in the face, but, you know, as you've seen in this quarter, you know, the site's ability to manage those is, you know, we've got good, consistent production going on. You know, that's on the back of a lot of the work we've done in and around the chain and flight bars, et cetera. I think we've explained to you before, you know, a lot of work going on as far as longwall health, more broadly.
You know, it's a question of trying to keep good, consistent production there, steady, avoid delays, and again, I think we talked to you about sort of changing the maintenance regimes to have more smaller ones, et cetera, and that all, you know, appears to be working, and it's what's delivering that sort of constant production levels you started to see in the quarter. We should go into the move December, January, so that's all being scheduled and worked through at the moment. I think previously, as we've indicated, that, you know, if you look at the washouts, if you're trying to put them in a sort of percentage basis, they'll be about 50% of what we've seen in this block, in the following block.
Obviously, they go across, but as we progress in the subsequent blocks, they reduce in number.
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Chen Jiang from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Paul and Kevin. Congrats, first quarter of operating the newly acquired Blackwater and Daunia in Queensland. That is a state Whitehaven never operated before. Two questions from me, please. So firstly, on the Daunia, transition related rail constraints, understand it's now resolved or improved, but given it's your first time operating in Queensland, like, rail issues or logistics from Queensland is kind of common and could be a recurring issue. I'm just wondering, what has Whitehaven done to avoid this happening again? And how does the rail allocation work for Blackwater and Daunia to Whitehaven after BHP from the rail operator? Thank you.
Yep. Thanks, Chen. Yep, good questions. Look, a couple of things I'll just try to draw out. Firstly, it's worthwhile just noting, obviously, the different rail systems that the two mines work in. So, Blackwater rail system, no problem. Feeling very good about that. We've got plenty of capacity there for above and below and port, so we feel very good about that. No disruptions, you should see there, other than the normal things with planned maintenance and so on, that the service providers would normally bake into the system. Daunia is a separate matter because that system obviously is a very, as you know, in the central zone, in the Bowen Basin, a very congested area, and does, as you rightly point out, from time to time, have its issues.
The issue we observed, and I, and I can't speak to anyone else, but I can just speak to our, our experience and, and our interaction with Aurizon in managing this this issue, and there are obviously two pieces of their puzzle. You know, the the below rail service, obviously the pathways that were referred to that we don't-- we haven't had sufficient of, is distinct and separate from, obviously, the haulage side of things. And so just again, noticing that, that should, that should, be part of your thinking as well. Now, our understanding is that historically, Daunia has just been part of the broader BMA portfolio, and so they moved pathways through their group as they saw fit, depending on who's got coal, who doesn't, whatever they want to do, whatever blending and, and outcomes they wanted. Now, that required...
With the sale of Daunia, that required Daunia's allocation to be excised from the contractual position that BMA had, and be set up separately to service our needs. And we understand that there was some challenges in the technology underpinning that that didn't allocate to us in for a series of weeks an appropriate contractual pathway position. And so obviously we've raised that with the service provider and worked with them to try and remedy that situation. Now, they have, to their credit, they've certainly responded, and we were seeing more pathways to allow us to catch up the deficit, but obviously we weren't able to deal with all of that within the quarter.
We did bring in a second service provider to augment the capacity to make sure that we could sell all the tons we wanted to sell, and so that has assisted us in doing that, and we still are using that, quite frankly. Because we want to recover the ground that we've lost from the pathways that we didn't get during you know the second half of the quarter. That, as I say, that will spill into the September quarter. But as you rightly point out, Chen, the system up there obviously is different from what we've experienced in New South Wales. It doesn't have, it doesn't have the equivalent of the HVCCC that we have in New South Wales, so there is the way of working there is different.
But, we have a good relationship, obviously, with, with, all the companies that we're using here, be that Aurizon or PN. Given that we obviously use them, and we are a very large customer of theirs in New South Wales. So we're working with them to remedy this situation. It's unfortunate, but it is a timing-related matter, and these sales are not lost, they just slip, unfortunately, into the September quarter. That's not our preference, but they've just slid into the September quarter.
Yeah, sure. Thanks, Paul, for the color. Just a follow-up: so you're happy with Blackwater rail allocation, but Daunia now is allocated separately to Whitehaven, because it used to be belonged to the BMA as a group. Is the second service provider, in addition to Aurizon, a permanent solution for Daunia's rail allocation?
No, no. Look, I mean, just logistically, you know, these, these mines are very, very far apart, Chen. So just, you know, just ... And they are on different rail systems, right? Going to different ports, and that's the benefit of the, the portfolio we've got here, that we- obviously, what will affect one, doesn't affect the other, because they're on different rail paths and different ports, so that's nice diversification, lower risk as a result. Fortunately, and so as I said before, we've got plenty of above, below, and port capacity for, for Blackwater. No issues there at all. Happy with the way that system is working. Yeah, the Daunia one, as I say, is, is, is different. The, the extra, extra service provision that we're receiving at the moment is a temporary surge capacity arrangement.
No decision has been made as to whether or not we need something like that, as a longer-term, longer-term proposition. Obviously, the first port of call is to meet the immediate short needs of the site so that we can continue to operate seamlessly, and to resolve these issues with the incumbent. Obviously there is no opportunity to change the below-rail service provision. That is a monopoly. But obviously you could from a haulage perspective. But obviously we want to resolve these issues as quickly as we can and get back to normal business.
Sure. Thanks for the color, Paul. I appreciate that. And then maybe last one. I know it's still early stage, but you have been operating at Blackwater for 3 months, or over 3 months now. Are you able to comment on the pre-stripping, you know, in the next... You know, the additional work that BHP haven't done in the last few years, that you need to do in the next 12-18 months, and how should I think about, you know, cost and, and especially the yield, from, you know, from the additional work and pre-stripping? Thank you.
Yeah, Chen, look, as we've noted along the way, there's definitely an investment required in working capital here. We've said that consistently since prior to even owning the assets. And that investment will continue to be made. That investment we'll highlight for you when we give our guidance in the new year. I mean, that will be embedded in the cost. It is a cash flow impact. As I mentioned earlier, that exercise is not something that can be achieved overnight. It's gonna have to be a consistent and diligent function of the mine plan to deliver increased inventories, blasted inventories, but also pre-strip inventories. And as I say, that's not done overnight.
But we will be investing in that over the next 12 months for sure, and we'll call that out for you when we give our guidance on the 22nd of August.
Sure. Thank you, Paul. Thank you so much. I'll pass down. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Paul McTaggart from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Morning, all. So I just want to follow back or go back to the realized pricing. So I think you pretty well explained, Paul, the difference between the kind of primary and secondary product mixes out of Queensland. But even for your-- and we talked a little about price realizations for the secondary mix, given Russian product, et cetera, but even for the primary products, where it was 81, 81% of the Platts index, the prime index, could you give us a sense of what you expect to get back for that primary product in terms of what it should be against the index? 'Cause my recollection was, from prior guidance, it was more like 90% for prime and 85% for the semi-hard product. Sorry, 90% hard coking product, 85% for the semi-hard product-
Yeah.
-which would be over, you know, in the high 80s. So can you give me some clarification, please?
Yeah. Yeah, two different things there, Paul, just to call those out. Certainly, the 81% obviously is what the realizations currently are. The 85%-90% that we're referring to is a historical perspective on the realizations that these products have achieved. So reversion back to that is what we're talking about. That's that paragraph that sits below in the report, and also the numbers that we've given you when we announced the deal back in the October pack. That pack, just for everyone's benefit, does have some useful information there in terms of what the historical realizations have been for these products. So the 81 that we've achieved in the short term is actually in line with our expectations, but that is the blend of two things, don't forget.
That is the hard coking coal at Daunia and the semi-hard coking coal at Blackwater. So that is an average across those two different products. Now, as we've said before, the Daunia is the, is the higher quality of the two, but it is the smaller portion of the sales mix. And so, and so that's what I was referring to before, in terms of the 59, 41 is, is low for those reasons, the mix is different, and also the total volume is different in this quarter because of those logistics issues I mentioned before at the mine, Daunia, that has the higher realization product.
All right, so it sounds like you're confident that once you get the Daunia production normalized, as it sounds like it is now, you'll be back in that 85-90 range for that primary realization. Is that right?
The 85%-90% range that we've given is the historical averages. That's the historical average realization. So to the extent that there are period-on-period variations, we will have to live with that. That is part of the parcel of being in the met coal market. But those, we're happy that the guidance of that historical reflection remains true, and the only one which is the anomaly at the moment, as you know, is in the secondary products, where semi-soft historically has been 75%, but as you know, we all know, Paul, that hasn't been that way for some time.
Yeah.
Of course, the distortion is even greater at the moment because of the Russian influence on that part of the market.
And one last one: just that surge capacity that you're using at the minute, is that the cost of that, is that that kind of a normal level of cost, or are you getting stung for that?
Look, it's obviously surge comes at a cost greater than your normal contractual, your contractual costs. Who bears that cost? I think that's an open question. But yes, it does come at an incrementally higher cost in the short term. But we want to move. These prices are good. We've got coal there that needs to move. We want to get it going.
Okay. Thanks, Paul.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Glyn Lawcock from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Morning, Paul. Look, it was obviously a good production quarter for Queensland, and you annualize it at 16 million tons. But if I look at the last 12 months, those two mines only did 14 million tons. So is that what I'm hearing through all your commentary? I've got to catch up on inventory for stripping, et cetera. You know, the June quarter doesn't have maintenance, weather's good, so don't annualize it. You know, is... and I know you're gonna give us guidance, but is that what you're sort of trying to intimate? That, you know, it was only 14 million tons produced for the last 12 months, and you've still got a lot of work to do to, to grow it from there.
Are you referring to wrong, Glyn? Is that-
No, that was just saleable production. Sorry.
Saleable. Yeah. Look, all I'm saying there is that both mines have done well, production-wise. I think that's those numbers look pretty good. I do notice we've had the benefit of good weather, so okay, you can put a little bit of variation into your numbers as a result of you know, the March quarter usually has a bit more rain and cyclone activity, et cetera, et cetera. But no, I'm not saying that the numbers should be a lot lower than that.
No, I think we're actually at pretty consistent levels, and all I'm pointing to is I think actually points to the potential of these sites, because as Ian referenced earlier, we have seen quite a few productivity improvements at Blackwater already, and so on-site records from a productivity and dirt movements have been achieved in the short time that we've had ownership there. And you may recall that we've actually added some more capacity into that total movement of dirt capacity. So we have put orders down for two new large 800-ton diggers, one which will replace ones on site. That's a rented unit that hasn't been as productive as we would like.
So we are putting two new units in there, so there will be an uplift in capacity there as well. Obviously, moving the dirt out of the way means there's more coal to be mined. And so, yeah. So look, just acknowledging that, the quarter's been a good one, the weather has been favorable, so... but I'm not talking down the balance of the year as a result, that people should be making major discounts on the quarterly performance on an annualized basis.
That's fine. And then could you just help me understand: what is the quantum of allocation you have, like, in tonnage per year for the two Queensland mines for both port and rail?
We haven't given those numbers out, Glyn, but needless to say, there's no issue with Blackwater. That is surplus to current run rate requirements for both above and below rail and also port. So should not be concerned about constraints there. But contractual positions for Daunia are pretty closely matched to those five-year averages. And so that's an interesting position. The question is, do you need more? Do you need less? What do you need? Our view, obviously, is we'd like to ramp these mines up a bit more, Daunia in particular. And so if we're currently matched to the five-year average, we may need to take on a little bit more to do that.
That's available, do you think?
Well, I can see lower volumes through that system in recent times for other reasons. And so, talking to other players in the marketplace, we think there's capacity available.
Okay. And just a final question, just on the Blackwater sell down. You, you mentioned 20%, but I think in a response to a question I asked six months ago, you would said, you said potentially up to as much as 30. Is that still the case, or is it just definitely only 20% now?
Glyn, we have interest well in excess of the 20, the 20 that we would like to sell. We've initially outlined to everybody that we'll sell. We have, like I say, determined and credible offers for more, and so, we have some flexibility in our thinking in that regard. I don't suspect it will be more than 30, well, it won't. But the board has not made a call yet because the process has still got a little bit of way to travel. But there is. I wouldn't exclude the possibility of up to 30.
To still get the cash in the door for Christmas, what's the latest do you think you can close the deal to get the cash in the door by Christmas?
Yeah, look, again, that's not entirely under our control. We, as I said, we would like to see positive movements in the next month or so, in this process, so but then you have to go through the regulatory processes of competition clearances and FIRB and so on. And we can't control that aspect of it. But I would like to see this, I would like to see this closed out, yeah, within the next two months in order to be able to see cash around the end of the financial year. I think that's but again, it's subject to the regulatory things that we don't control.
Calendar.
Oh, sorry. Yeah. Yeah, calendar year. Sorry. Thank you.
Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So within the next two months, you might then still get it in your Christmas stocking.
Yeah, that'd be nice. Yeah, that'd be nice.
Yeah. All right. Thanks, Paul. Appreciate it.
Thanks, Glyn.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Lachlan Shaw from UBS. Please go ahead.
Thanks, thanks, Paul, for taking my follow-up. So maybe just to come back, a quick one on realized pricing, in, in particular around PCI semi-soft. Obviously, it is weak at the moment versus history, but just interested in how you think about this sort of medium term in respect of, you know, your customers' steel mills and how they might start to tinker with responding to reduce their carbon.
Yeah. Yeah, that's an interesting question. Might require a meeting, actually, that one, 'cause-
That will require a meeting.
That's a harder one. But, look, I thought you were going in another direction rather than being the carbon footprint. I mean, obviously, all our customers are conscious on their carbon footprint and obviously working through their various plans to decarbonize over time. In terms of the medium timeframe you're talking about, and let's assume we're talking about the next maybe 5 years, 10 years, I thought you were trending more towards where does the secondary product, interest in the secondary products go? And my view of that is, that I think that the interest in them increases. And the reason why I say that is because the primary hard is a relatively constrained, production base. There's just not much expansion potential there, and we have a growing customer appetite for this stuff.
So, semi-soft and the PCIs, I think, figure more in the mix in terms of as time progresses. And of course, how individual customers deal with their decarbonization objectives will be many and varied, depending on the different steel companies using these products. So, I don't see that being the big driver for these products. I see actually the underlying demand and the inability to bring on meaningful supply responses for that strong demand pointing to better pricing over time.
Yeah, that's really interesting. Thanks, Paul. And then look, maybe just one quick one. So just, small detail here. Narrabri inventory sort of stepped up quite a bit in the quarter. Yeah, how do you think about that? Is that sort of a healthy level on a go-forward basis? Yeah, how should we think about that going forward?
Yeah, it did step up, which is good. You know, that's positive. It was actually a little skinny there, obviously with the lower production. So it's really just consistent with the more consistent production that's been coming out from the mine. So, yeah, I mean, that's positive. I don't see anything negative out of that at all. That's a good thing. So the more coal we have available to us, the more liberally we can blend across the group, and that's our objective. So we always wanna have a bit of stock on the ground at the mine, and also at the port at NCIG. That allows us to optimize the blends.
When we have less of one quality or another, be that the high CV or the mid CV, that is constraining, because then you don't have the flexibility to blend at will. So having a bit more stock on the ground is actually a good thing.
Great. Thank you. I'll pass it on.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Rahul Anand from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi again, team. Thanks for taking the follow-up. Look, you... The only one I wanted to follow up, really on, was some comments in the release around inflationary pressures. We obviously had a year where cost performance was just above guidance, and that's obviously been impacted by your production numbers this year, but you have called out, continuing inflation in the market. We've seen several job losses coming about, in the western part of Australia. But, how are you seeing New South Wales and Queensland going into the next year in terms of, you know, inputs and labor, et cetera, in terms of inflationary pressures? Thanks.
Yeah. Good question, Rahul. Look, we are still seeing inflation in the business, no doubt about that. It's probably easier to answer your question in terms of how do you feel about the outlook? You know, you pointed out the job losses, obviously, in the sector, on the other side of the country, for sure, that will influence things. Availability of labor is better. We're not seeing that truly reflected in the price of labor yet. I do expect that to emerge and to be a softening there. In Queensland, obviously, recent activities, you've seen, job losses there as well. I suspect there'll be more of that to come. That will take the pressure out of the labor market, I suspect.
So directionally, I think, the labor component of inflation should, should moderate. But we are seeing it in materials still within the business, and so parts, materials, we are still seeing inflation, in there, and services. And so that definitely, that definitely, is still rife, if I can say that. As I was pointing to you in the, in the release, obviously volumetrically, having less of our cheapest tons, Narrabri that is, obviously influence the cost base. And, I might just throw one further comment in there, just, on the labor side of things. Sorry, circling back to that. I mean, the, the prospects of Same Job, Same Pay, elevating, labor costs across, the industry is obviously front and center of our concerns.
We've seen the opening gambit of that playing out with a couple of players already. That is going to add more pressure to labor inflation.
Understood. Thank you. That's all for me.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Chen Jiang from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Oh, thank you, Paul, for taking my follow-up question. Just a quick one on Narrabri. By looking at the fourth quarter, ROM coal, 1.5 million tons, that is annualized at 6 million tons of ROM from Narrabri. I'm wondering, are you being able to maintain the fourth quarter, you know, annualized level, given if you think Narrabri has going to provide stability or steady production, or can you increase further? That's my last question. Thank you.
Thanks, Chen. Good question, too. Yes, look, the run rate's much improved and very pleased with that. The only, the only point I noted is that, we are, we are seeing, obviously, as I mentioned earlier, a continued improvement in that regard, so that's looking nice and consistent falling into this new year. But when we give you guidance, guidance on, the 22nd of August, I do have to acknowledge here that there is a change-out in this next, financial year, which there wasn't in this. And so, so there will be some time, some downtime associated with the change out. So it's a good call out. Thank you.
Okay, thanks. Thanks, Paul. Thanks for color. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Glyn Lawcock from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Hey, Paul. I'll keep this quick. So your comments around, you know, CapEx, you're gonna postpone it while you integrate Queensland, and you've got your payments to BMA, but you've got assets coming up for sale again. They're probably only gonna come up once. You can then buy and sell down, like you're doing with Blackwater. So does that mean you have no interest in the Anglo's assets or, or, or do you still think it's a possibility on your plate? Thanks.
No, we are not, we are not interested in doing anything there at all, Glyn. You know, we've got our hands full. We've got a great acquisition. We want to make sure that goes well. The sell down of our process is proceeding very well. So we've got enough to do here, so we are not, we are not participating in that process.
All right. Thanks, Paul.
Thank you.
Thank you for asking.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now head back to Mr. Flynn for closing remarks.
Again, thanks very much, everybody, for taking the time to dial in. A lot of ground to cover. I know, my apologies for the glitch in technology, but good quarter, as I say, very pleased with how the new assets are going. And, and all the while, whilst our focus is on Queensland, New South Wales has done very well, which is terrific, so... But if you've got any residual questions that come from that, you know where to find us, and looking forward to engaging with you over the coming weeks. Thanks very much.
Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.